.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o O Ü) o fN O u 0) Ö cu _Q o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 10 / Vol. XX / 2014 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Branka Tavčar ((In)solvency in Q3 2014); Valerija Korošec, PhD (Risk of social exclusion and material deprivation). Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia...........................................................................................................................10 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Boxes Box 1: Stress tests...............................................................................................................................................................8 Box 2: Road and rail freight transport in Q2 2014.............................................................................................................12 Selected topics (In)solvency in Q3 2014...................................................................................................................................................27 Risk of social exclusion and material deprivation......................................................................................................29 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................31 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The values of short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators for the euro area are not improving; the European Commission revised downwards its forecasts for economic growth in the euro area but still expects a gradual strengthening of economic activity. In its Autumn Forecast, the Commission projects 0.8% GDP growth for this year and 1.1% growth for next (0.6 and 0.7 percentage points lower, respectively, than in the spring), the largest downward revisions being those for Slovenia's major trading partners. This year's lower-than-expected GDP growth in the euro area will be due to more modest economic growth in the first half of the year, the forecasts for growth in investment and external demand also being lower than in the spring. The downside risks to 2015 growth remain associated with geopolitical tensions, unstable financial markets and incomplete implementation of structural reforms in Member States. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia continue to improve gradually. Real merchandise exports increased further in the middle of the year. Production volume in manufacturing also continued to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The recovery in construction came to a halt, but construction activity remained stronger than at the beginning of the year. Nominal turnover rose further in market services. In recent months, it has also rebounded in wholesale trade. Having stagnated in the first half of the year, real turnover in retail trade rose but remained low. The labour market situation continues to improve; average gross earnings per employee are rising. The number of persons in employment rose further in August (seasonally adjusted). In the first eight months, it was therefore slightly higher year-on-year, most notably in employment activities. Owing to increased hiring and a smaller inflow into unemployment, the number of the registered unemployed is falling. It also dropped in September (seasonally adjusted), to 112,560, which is 1.8% less than in the previous September. Average gross earnings - which otherwise remained unchanged in August (seasonally adjusted) - were up year-on-year in the first eight months in both the private and public sectors. With the latest austerity measures being in effect for one year and due to the beginning of the disbursement of the previously frozen promotions to public servants in April 2014, they were also slightly higher in the government sector. Consumer prices were down year-on-year again in October (-0.1%). Deflation is mainly attributable to lower energy prices, but also reflects lower prices of some durable (furniture) and semi-durable goods (clothing and footwear). The contribution of food prices is smaller than last year. Year-on-year inflation in the euro area remained low in October (0.4 %), according to Eurostat's preliminary data. The situation in the banking system is stabilising gradually, but the stock of loans to the corporate sector continues to decline. In the first three quarters, the stock of loans to domestic non-banking sectors (EUR 1.2 bn) shrank less than in the same period last year. Household deleveraging moderated. The stock of loans to enterprises and NFIs, which are also deleveraging abroad, was a tenth lower than a year earlier. Banks' deleveraging abroad also slowed, their net repayments totalling EUR 800 m in the first eight months, around 45% less than a year before. Household and government deposits expanded in the nine months to September, but negative trends were recorded at the end of the third quarter. The deterioration in the quality of bank claims has eased in recent months. The share of arrears of more than 90 days at the end of August was 14.8%. The general government deficit (EUR 1,058 bn), which was lower year-on-year in the first eight months, will be higher than planned at the end of the year. The year-on-year deficit decline of EUR 234.3 m is attributable to higher growth in revenue than expenditure. Growth in revenue (5.0%) was mostly underpinned by higher revenues from corporate income tax and value added tax and increased non-tax revenues. Expenditure growth (2.2%) stemmed from strong growth in capital expenditure and interest payments, given that the other major categories remained lower or similar to those in the same period last year. The general government deficit, arising almost solely from the state budget, was around EUR 40 m higher at the end of the first eight months than foreseen in the adopted budget for 2014 (EUR 1,018 bn). According to the draft supplementary budget approved by the government, the annual deficit of the state budget will be around EUR 200 m higher than anticipated (EUR 1.215 bn) primarily owing to higher-than-planned expenditure. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators for the euro area indicate no further economic growth in the third quarter. After the increase in July, industrial production in manufacturing contracted by 2.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, and was down 0.3% year-on-year. New orders in manufacturing also fell notably in August (-2.4%, seasonally adjusted) and were much lower than at the beginning of the year. Turnover in retail trade was up and construction output increased further. After several months of decline, the Economic Sentiment Indicator ESI went up slightly in October, approaching its long-term average. The values of some other confidence indicators (PMI, Ifo, Zew) still indicate economic stagnation in the euro area and some of Slovenia's major trading partners (Germany). Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area - Industrial production in manufacturing ■ Construction put in place ■ Turnover in retail trade -ESI 110 105 o 100 95 90 rN X (U 85 '■TD 80 1= 75 \ n \ ^ \ t \ \ \ hi / \ \ ^ / '7 ^ 1 '^-j [ 1 V Soui^^e: Eurosta^t; calculations by IMMAD. In its Autumn Forecast, the European Commission reduced its growth forecasts for the euro area significantly but it still expects a further recovery next year. It projects 0.8% GDP growth in the euro area for this year (0.6 percentage points lower than in the spring) and 1.1% growth for 2015 (0.7 percentage points lower), the largest downward revisions being those for Slovenia's main trading partners (Germany, Italy, France, Austria). Among the key reasons for the revisions, the Commission cites weak growth in the first half of the year, low confidence in the economy and materialisation of certain downside risks. Particularly investment growth, which was supposed to be one of the main drivers of the recovery according to the spring forecast, will be lower than expected. The weaker external demand is significantly impacted by geopolitical risks and less favourable global economic prospects, as the IMF also cut its forecasts for world GDP growth and trade in October. The downside risks to the recovery of euro area growth in 2015 remain high and associated with geopolitical tensions, unstable financial markets and stalling implementation of structural reforms in Member States. Credit standards on loans to enterprises and households eased again in the third quarter, but the net flow of loans in the euro area remained negative. According to the ECB Euro Area Lending Survey, credit standards for enterprises improved in the third quarter but remained much tighter compared with the long-term average. The main factor in the easing was higher liquidity of banks and easier access to market financing,1 whereas banks' expectations regarding general economic recovery in the euro area deteriorated and had a negative impact on credit terms. Looking at the largest euro area countries, credit standards on loans to enterprises eased in Germany and France, while tightening in the Netherlands and remaining unchanged in Italy and Spain. In the third quarter, the credit standards for households were eased for consumer and housing loans. For the last quarter banks expect a further easing of credit standards and an increase in demand for loans to enterprises and households. Despite the easing of credit standards for enterprises and households, the net flow of loans in the euro area remains negative, according to the ECB Survey, but data show a slight improvement at the end of the third quarter. Figure 2: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3 m. (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3 m. (left axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) -----Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) "" 70 60 40 "0 ^ a a a Source: ECB. 20 10 0 -10 JZ aj -20 -30 Ss O 5 S^ -40 1^ .£2 The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged in October. The interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal facility and the deposit facility remain unchanged (0.05%, 0.20% and 0.30%). In October, the ECB confirmed and announced the details on both the 1 According data from the ECB Survey, 44% of banks surveyed participated in targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), their participation being mainly driven by profitability motives. 50 70 30 Box 1: Stress tests Figure 3: Decline in capital adequacy under the adverse scenario 16 12 10 Mediana The European Central Bank carried out a comprehensive assessment of the banking system in the context of the preparations for a single mechanism for banking supervision and to boost confidence in the euro area banking system. The comprehensive review included two components, an asset quality review and the stress tests, which covered a horizon of three years from 2014 to 2016 starting on 31 December 2013. It covered 130 systemically important banks in the euro area, including three Slovenian banks (NLB d.d., NKBM d.d. and SID banka d.d.). The stress test results revealed possible capital shortfalls in 25 banks, two of which were Slovenian banks (NLB and NKBM).1 The joint capital shortfall under the adverse scenario was EUR 24.6 bn. NLB and NKBM together recorded a shortfall of EUR 65 m. As it will be covered by retained profits, it should not put additional pressure on general government expenditure. Slovenian banks recorded the largest decline in capital adequacy after the stress test conducted under the assumptions of the adverse scenario. We estimate that the results for Slovenian banks were significantly impacted by the assumptions taken into account in the stress tests, along with the late stabilisation of the Slovenian banking system, which started only at the end of 2013 and could not yet yield visible results. The assumptions in the stress tests were based on the European Commission's winter forecasts, which were still relatively unfavourable for Slovenia.2 Moreover, the adverse scenario also included additional assumptions3 pertaining to the banking system situation. These were still extremely unfavourable in Slovenia at the end of 2013. The risks to the bank balance sheets were thus not properly evaluated yet. Furthermore, the number of bankruptcies increased in 2013, which is indicated by the relatively poor results of the banks' asset quality review as the capital adequacy of NLB and NKBM declined by 1.5 and 3.9 percentage points respectively after the review.4 In 2014 the situation in the banking system started to improve gradually, but remained fragile. The borrowing terms for the corporate sector remain relatively unfavourable. This continues to deter more creditworthy customers from Slovenian banks, in our estimation, and hampers the improvement of the situation in the Slovenian banking system. SI GRCY BE IE PT NL LU IT DE LT AT LV FI FRMTSK ES EE Source: ECB. 1 Under the adverse scenario, the capital adequacy of SID banka would be 14.5%. 2 The baseline scenario used the actual forecasts of macroeconomic indicators, while the adverse scenario also took into account possible new shocks. Under the adverse scenario, Slovenia's GDP would thus shrink by 3.3% in 2014-2016, while prices would rise by 0.7%. By the end of the year, unemployment would have reached 13.3%. House prices are assumed to decline by 18% and commercial property prices by 6%. 3 (i) an increase in bond yields related to a reversal in risk assessment in emerging market economies; (ii) a further deterioration in the quality of banks' assets in vulnerable countries with weak demand and unstable banking systems; (iii) stalling reforms jeopardising confidence in the sustainability of public finances; and (iv) the lack of the necessary bank balance sheet repair to maintain affordable market funding. 4 NKBM recorded the most pronounced deterioration of all 25 banks that had failed the stress test. Table 1: Money market interest rates and the exchange rates of national currencies against the EUR Interest rates average, in % change, in b. p. 2013 X 13 IX 14 X 14 X 14/IX 14 X 14/X 13 3-month EURIBOR rate 0.220 0.226 0.097 0.083 -1.4 -14.3 3-month USD LIBOR rate 0.268 0.242 0.234 0.232 -0.2 -1.0 3-month CHF LIBOR rate 0.021 0.020 0.009 0.009 0.0 -1.1 Exchange rates average change, in % 2013 X 13 IX 14 X 14 X 14/IX 14 X 14/X 13 EUR/USD 1.328 1.365 1.290 1.267 -1.8 -7.2 EUR/CHF 1.231 1.232 1.208 1.208 0.0 -1.9 EUR/GBP 0.849 0.847 0.791 0.789 -0.3 -6.9 EUR/JPY 129.66 133.32 138.39 136.85 -1.1 2.6 asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP) and the covered bond purchase programme (CBPP). The programmes will start to be implemented in the fourth quarter of this year and will last for at least two years, aiming to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and facilitate credit provision to the euro area economy. Figure 4: Yields to maturity of ten-year government bonds - Slovenia -Italy -Portugal -----Ireland - Spain ■ Germany Source: Bloomberg. Oil prices plunged in October. The price of Brent crude, down more than 20% in the past four months, averaged USD 87.4 per barrel in October, the lowest figure since December 2010. The decline in prices was, in addition to the poor economic outlook for the EU and China and hence lower demand, mostly related to increased nonOPEC oil supply. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, but oil prices in EUR have nevertheless plummeted in recent months, to below EUR 70 per barrel. Non-energy commodity prices also dipped again in September (-3.7%), recording the lowest levels in the past four years. Figure 5: Prices of Brent crude oil and USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) 1^100 3 80 a 60 1.4 -cc 3 1.2 a 1.0 ......i..........r.........r.........r.........r......... rN rn m ^ ^ calculations byy IMAD. Figure 6: Non-energy commodity prices in dollars 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 - Non-energy commodities Agricultural raw materials ■ Food - Industrial inputs Metals Source: IMF. Table 2: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Oil average change, in % 2013 X 13 IX 14 X 14 X 14/IX 14 X 14/X 13 Brent USD 108.56 109.08 97.09 87.43 -9.9 -19.8 Brent EUR 81.66 79.98 76.43 69.46 -9.1 -13.2 Commodities change, in % 2013/2012 X 14/IX 14 X 14/X 13 Non-energy commoditites -1.2 -3.7 -4.1 Food 1.1 -5.2 -6.1 Agricultural raw materials 1.4 -0.2 2.7 Metals -4.2 -4.0 -9.1 140 120 1.6 40 20 0 Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia continue to improve gradually. Real merchandise exports are rising. Growth in production volume in manufacturing otherwise eased slightly in mid-2014 and the strengthening of construction activity came to a halt (although it remained higher than at the beginning of the year). Nominal turnover in market services is expanding this year. In recent months it has also rebounded in wholesale trade. After stagnating in the first half of the year, real turnover in retail trade increases as well, but remains low. Figure 7: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Table 3: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manuf. ■ Value of construction put in place Turnover in retail trade V--1 ...........I......\ r 70 60 50 40 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. August recorded further growth in real merchandise exports and imports (seasonally adjusted).2 Growth in merchandise exports is still mainly driven by higher exports to the EU, though exports outside the EU also expanded somewhat in August. In the eight months to August, merchandise exports were up 5.6% year-on-year (original figures). According to the available data,3 this was chiefly due to higher exports to Croatia, Germany, Austria and Italy, while among Slovenia's main trading partners, exports to France and Russia were down year-on-year in 2014. The growth of real merchandise imports went up slightly again in August. In the first eight months of the year, real merchandise imports were 3.0% higher than in the same period of 2013, according to original data. Nominal exports and imports of services have been declining in recent months (seasonally adjusted).4 The 2 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real imports have been estimated on the basis of nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. 3 Detailed data on the structure of external trade are available for seven months. 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. in % 2013 VIII 14/ VII 14 VIII 14/ VIII 13 I-VIII 14/ I-VIII 13 Exports1 2.5 7.2 5.2 4.3 -goods 1.8 4.4 5.6 4.9 -services 5.6 19.2 4.1 1.9 Imports1 -1.5 7.6 7.2 4.8 -goods -1.9 6.1 6.8 3.8 -services 1.4 16.3 9.9 11.4 Industrial production -0.9 -2.02 4.53 3.73 -manufacturing -1.5 -1.62 4.83 3.23 Construction -value of construction put in place -2.6 -1.82 27.73 34.53 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 0.52 0.83 -0.23 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -0.3 0.52 5.63 3.53 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Figure 8: Merchandise trade - real -Exports -Imports iS 100 !E != 90 85 80 75 Source: SURS; calcualtions by IMAD. decline in services exports is driven by a decrease in exports of other business services and the group of other services5 (primarily communication services, in our estimation). Exports of travel have maintained approximately the same levels since the second quarter of last year, while exports of transport services continue to expand. August also recorded a further decline in services imports, which can be explained by falling imports of travel and the group of other services, whereas imports of transport and other business services continue to increase. According to original figures, nominal exports of services rose by 1.9% year-on-year in the first eight months while imports were up 11.4% owing to growth in the latter half of 2013. 5 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we placed communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for almost a fifth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. 105 95 70 Figure 9:Trade in services - nominal -Exports of services -Imports of services 400 350 300 E IT 250 o^^rNrsmm ^^ Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Production volume in manufacturing declined in August after the more substantial increases in the preceding two months but remained higher than in the first half of the year. It was lower than in July in all three groups according to technology intensity. In medium-low-technology industries and industries with higher technology intensity it declined after increasing in previous months and thus remained higher than in the first half of the year. Low-technology production dropped further, reaching the first quarter level. In the first eight months production volume was up 3.2% year-on-year (working-day adjusted). Last year's levels were exceeded the most (more than 10.0%) by the leather industry (mainly due to the base effect) and the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment. Figure 10: Production volume in the manufacturing sector Low-technology industries - Medium-low-technology industries - Medium-high-and high-technology industries - Manufacturing, total 100 80 75 70 The number of persons employed in the manufacturing sector has stopped falling in 2014 and was similar to that a year earlier in the eight months to August.6 In most industries it increased, notably in the manufacture of transport equipment (by a tenth). It remained down year-on-year primarily in some low-technology industries. In addition to the food-processing industry, employment dwindled in the furniture and textile industries (by 1,700, in total), where it has declined most since the beginning of the crisis (by around 17,000).7 In medium-low and more technology intensive industries, employment mostly increased, by a total of 1,900 (around 1,300 in the manufacture of transport equipment). Figure 11: Employment in manufacturing industries lJan-Aug2014/Jan-Aug2013 (left axis)- 15 10 5 # 0 -5 ii -10 o i:^ -15 -20 o m C Low-tech industries No. of employed (right axis) 1,500 1,000 500 i= 0 ^ -500 n -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 =i Si - CT -- ^ (U U -15 (U -.i^ 1,800 !E 1,700 Žu ■^^i 1,600 // 1,500 1,300 i:^ 1,200 - cococ^o^oo^^rNrNmm Sourc^e: SURS; calculatioi^s by IMA[^. Prices Prices remained down year-on-year in October (-0.1%).15 Deflation is mainly driven by lower food and energy prices. The decline in these prices made the largest contribution to the price movements in the past two years, when price growth declined by 2.8 percentage points. Amid subdued domestic demand, this year's Table 7: Earnings by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2013 VIII 2014 2013/2012 VIII 14/ VII 14 VIII 14/ VIII 13 I-VIII 14/ I-VIII 13 Average gross wage per employee 1,523.18 1,516.93 -0.2 -1.2 0.7 1.0 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,473.47 1,465.73 0.7 -1.9 0.5 1.5 Industry (B-E) 1,482.76 1,501.35 2.6 -2.0 1.8 3.1 - of which manufacturing 1,436.53 1,446.95 2.8 -2.6 1.1 3.2 Construction 1,188.38 1,174.89 -1.4 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 Traditional services (G-I) 1,355.65 1,337.22 0.1 -1.6 0.2 0.8 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,691.40 1,657.01 -1.3 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,670.91 1,672.04 -2.3 0.6 1.2 -0.1 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,727.19 1,751.09 -1.4 -0.1 1.9 0.6 - Education 1,621.86 1,596.79 -3.3 0.2 0.8 -0.3 - Human health and social work activities 1,677.78 1,688.75 -2.0 1.6 1.2 -0.4 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 14 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. 15 Given month/the same month one year previously. 1,400 deepening of the decline also arose from lower prices of other goods (primarily durable and non-durable goods). Year-on-year inflation in the euro area remains low (0.4%), up slightly from September, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Figure 20: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 4 3 2 -Slovenia HICP ■ Slovenia HICP -core inflation -Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Price growth remains low this year due to lower prices of semi-durables and energy (0.6%).16 In the nine months to September, inflation was down 1.0 percentage points on the same period of 2013. Apart from seasonally adjusted movements of clothing and footwear prices, which made a similar contribution in 2014 as in 2013 (-0.3 percentage points) amid continued weak demand and modest consumption, price growth was driven down by lower prices of energy (-0.2 percentage points compared with 0.5 percentage points last year). The latter mainly reflect lower prices of liquid fuels, which dipped by 3.5% due to the decline in global oil prices in euros (-6.7%). The contribution of food prices was also lower than in the same period last year (down 0.4 percentage points to 0.0 percentage points). Services prices, which had also contributed to last year's price growth (1.1 percentage points; last year: 1.0 percentage points), were up in particular. Against the background of weak domestic demand and current food and energy price movements, core inflation remains low, slightly above headline inflation. Year-on-year inflation in the euro area remains low. Price movements in the euro area are subject to the same factors as in the domestic environment. Low inflation was - in addition to commodity price movements on global Source: Eurostat. 16 Given month/December one year previously. Table 8: Breakdown of the HICP in sub-groups - September 2014 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 0.6 100.0 0.6 0.1 100.0 0.1 Goods -0.4 64.8 -0.3 -0.3 57.2 -0.2 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 1.1 16.1 0.2 0.6 12.3 0.1 Non-processed food 1.8 7.5 0.1 -1.8 7.5 -0.1 Non-energy industrial goods -1.7 26.4 -0.4 -0.1 26.7 0.0 Durables -1.4 8.7 -0.1 -0.5 8.4 0.0 Non-durables -0.2 8.5 0.0 0.4 8.1 0.0 Semi-durables -2.2 9.2 -0.2 1.5 10.2 0.2 Energy -1.3 14.7 -0.2 -0.9 10.8 -0.1 Electricity for households -3.2 2.8 -0.1 1.6 2.7 0.0 Natural gas 1.7 1.1 0.0 -3.7 1.8 -0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 1.3 1.3 0.0 -3.2 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -7.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 District heating 1.6 0.8 0.0 -2.2 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants -0.6 7.6 0.0 -0.7 4.8 0.0 Services 2.9 35.2 1.0 0.8 42.8 0.3 Services - dwellings 4.1 3.2 0.1 1.5 10.5 0.2 Services - transport 3.0 6.2 0.2 1.3 7.3 0.1 Services - communications 0.4 3.6 0.0 -2.6 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 3.0 14.3 0.4 1.1 14.7 0.2 Services - other services 2.8 8.0 0.2 1.3 7.2 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.9 77.8 0.7 0.5 81.7 0.4 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification 8 7 6 5 0 Figure 21: Structure of the decline in year-on-year inflation in the past two years ■ Other I Energy ■ Services I Food -CPI* 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -3.5 Q LJL Q LJL < ^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Change in year-on-year inflation relative to October 2012. markets - chiefly marked by lower prices of energy, but their contribution was smaller than in Slovenia owing to the smaller share in household consumption. The contribution of services prices was similar, as they were up both in Slovenia and other euro area countries. Amid persistently weak demand, the growth of other goods prices eased in other euro area countries, while in Slovenia these prices remained down for the six consecutive month. Figure 22: Inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 0.6 ■ Slovenia Euro area -0.6 Inflation Processed Non - Energy Services Other * food, processed alcohol, tobaccofood Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, etc. On the domestic market industrial producer prices remained down year-on-year in September (-1.1%), while on foreign markets they were up for the first time since 2012 (0.6%). The decline on the domestic market was mainly attributable to lower prices in the manufacture of food Table 9: Industrial producer prices and import prices Industrial producer prices Change, in % 2013/2012 IX 14/IX 13 Total -0.5 -0.3 Domestic market -0.3 -1.1 Foreign market -0.7 0.6 Import prices 2013/2012 IX 14/IX 13 Total -0.9 -1.1 Euro area 0.4 -2.0 Non-euro area -2.6 0.2 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. products and ICT and electrical equipment. On the other hand, prices in the manufacture of metals were up for the first time since 2011, making the largest contribution to price growth on foreign markets. Import prices remained down year-on-year in September (-1.1%). In addition to lower energy prices, the year-on-year decline was, as in August, primarily driven by lower prices of chemical products (-2.9%), while metal prices were up again (2.1%). Figure 23: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets - PPI (domestic market) ■ Mfr.of basic metals,fabricated metal prod.,ex. mach.,equip.(domestic) ■ Mfr.of food products;beverages;tobacco products (domestic) PPI (foreign market) 16 12 0 -8 -12 -16 \ / 4...........4....... / Source: SURS. Balance of payments The current account surplus remains high but is narrowing. In the first eight months, it was down year-on-year primarily owing to higher net outflows of factor income and a smaller surplus in services trade. The balance of current transfers also deteriorated. The surplus in merchandise trade was wider year-on-year. -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 20 In the first eight months, the surplus in merchandise and services trade remained similar to that in the same period of last year. The surplus in merchandise trade was up year-on-year chiefly owing to higher exports to EU markets. The year-on-year narrowing of the surplus in services trade was mainly due to trade in other business services17 turning from a surplus into a deficit. In trade in construction services, revenue of Slovenian construction companies abroad declined amid stagnating expenditure on investment works, construction and installation carried out by foreign companies in Slovenia. Figure 24: Components of the current account of the balance of payments 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 ■ Merchandise trade ■ Factor income -Current account ■ Services trade ■ Current transfers Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 10: Balance of payments I-VIII 14, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VIII 13 Current account 20,183.9 18,954.4 1,229.5 1,407.5 - Trade balance (FOB) 15,221.6 14,505.4 716.2 533.4 - Services 3,636.6 2,398.1 1,238.4 1,415.7 - Income 472.5 1,054.5 -582.0 -439.8 Current transfers 853.2 996.3 -143.1 -101.8 Capital and financial account 5,545.4 -7,109.5 -1,564.2 -1,962.3 - Capital account 245.1 -282.5 -37.5 43.4 - Capital transfers 166.2 -212.2 -46.0 32.5 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 78.9 -70.3 8.6 10.9 - Financial account 5,300.3 -6,827.0 -1,526.7 -2,005.7 - Direct investment 772.5 -9.0 763.6 -621.2 - Portfolio investment 4,320.7 190.5 4,511.2 2,010.2 - Financial derivates -11.3 26.2 14.9 -15.0 - Other investment 218.3 -6,891.0 -6,672.6 -3,348.4 - Assets 191.2 -4,620.0 -4,428.8 -1,977.2 - Liabilities 27.2 -2,271.0 -2,243.8 -1,371.2 - Reserve assets 0.0 -143.7 -143.7 -31.4 Net errors and omissions 334.6 0.0 334.6 554.9 The net outflows of factor income and current transfers continue. The higher net outflow of capital income was almost entirely the result of net payments of interest on external debt related to general government borrowing.18 Net interest payments in the private sector were lower year-on-year mainly as a consequence of debt repayments by commercial banks. The Bank of Slovenia recorded stable net interest receipts, given its high external claims and the low interest rate on the main refinancing operations. The total net payments of interest abroad in the first eight months amounted to EUR 501.4 m (compared with EUR 323.6 m last year). The net inflow of labour income increased mainly due to a rising number of daily migrant workers abroad. The deficit in current transfers in the first eight months was wider than in the same period of 2013. Amid a modest improvement in the absorption of EU funds, this was mainly attributable to higher net payments of other general government transfers (taxes and other transfers). Figure 25: Net interest income by sector 30 ■ General government sector I Private sector iBank of Slovenia Total E-15 -30 -75 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. International financial transactions19 recorded a net outflow of EUR 1,383.0 m in the first eight months, compared with EUR 1,974.3 m in the same period last year. Net capital outflows were recorded by the private sector and the central bank, while the government sector posted a net inflow because of which the total net financial outflow was smaller than in 2013. Looking at the private sector, enterprises, households and banks increased their deposits in bank accounts abroad. Short-term commercial credits rose as well, which is related to growing exports of goods and services. Banks' debt repayments abroad were somewhat higher than in the same period last Source: BoS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. 17 Other business services include operating leasing, merchanting and various business, professional and technical services. 18 From the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008 to the end of August 2014, general government gross debt rose by EUR 17.4 bn to EUR 21.2 bn. 19 Excluding international monetary reserves. 15 0 -45 -60 Figure 26: Financial transactions of the balance of payments ■ General government sector ■ Private sector I Bank of Slovenia -Net financial flow 1000 -1000 o ^ ^ Source: BoS. year. Non-residents were withdrawing deposits from Slovenian banks. The Bank of Slovenia increased assets in foreign accounts, while the government sector increased liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. Financial markets The situation in the banking system continues to improve steadily, but the volume of corporate and NFI loans is still declining. In the first three quarters, the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors dwindled by EUR 1.2 bn, by around 5% less than in the same period last year. The year-on-year decline was accounted for by slower household deleveraging, as corporate and NFI deleveraging expanded relative to the year before. Banks were still reducing their liabilities to the Eurosystem (this year by EUR 2.7 bn), but their debt repayments abroad slowed. Household and government deposits were otherwise still up in the nine months to September, but at the end of the third quarter negative trends were seen. The deterioration in the quality of bank claims has eased in recent months. Household deleveraging at domestic banks has moderated substantially this year. The amount of loans fell more than EUR 100 m in the first three quarters, approximately half less than in the comparable period last year. The decline was almost solely the result of debt repayments in the first half of the year. Households are still mainly repaying consumer loans, but the decline in these loans is more than half lower this year. On the other hand, bank lending to households for the purpose of housing is gradually rising. Corporate and NFI loans contracted by EUR 1.1 bn in the first nine months, a tenth more than in the same period last year. In recent months, deleveraging has moderated slightly again but remains fairly strong. At the end of September, corporate and NFI loans amounted to EUR 14.5 bn, which is close to the level at the beginning of 2007. In our estimation, Slovenian banks have already started to lose more creditworthy customers, which can obtain less expensive sources of finance by borrowing abroad and issuing securities. Figure 27: Changes in the volume of loans to households, enterprises and NFIs and the government I Enterprises and NFIs I ^■Households I 700 ■ Government - Total 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 0 m -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 ■I..........i... ............................... ................ ■■ ■ .. O. .f ■■ i- -f ..........iJ.......[... ..................................I...... u... '...... .............'.................f ill 11 in.....\ miluM tjin' .....1....... Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Financially sounder enterprises still have access to debt financing despite the adverse situation on international credit markets. The net flow of foreign loans to enterprises and NFIs in August totalled over EUR 50 m and was almost entirely due to short-term borrowing, as enterprises made net repayments in long-term loans in the amount of approximately EUR 40 m in the same period. In the first eight months of the year, enterprises and NFIs repaid EUR 75 m20 net in foreign loans. Bank deleveraging abroad continues to moderate, even though August's repayments were the highest this year. After borrowing in July, banks were repaying their external liabilities again in August. Net repayments, arising mainly from repayments of long-term loans, exceeded EUR 220 m. Deposits of foreign banks recorded net inflows this time, of around EUR 30 m. Banks repaid more than EUR 800 m net in external liabilities in the first eight months, around 45% less than in the comparable period last year. At the end of August, liabilities to foreign financial institutions stood at EUR 5.1 bn, accounting for 11.2% of the banking system's total assets. This year, corporate and NFI deleveraging at domestic banks continues at a somewhat stronger pace than in 2013. 20 With foreign loans totalling EUR 6.6 bn at the end of the second quarter, the decline was relatively small. 3000 2000 0 -2000 -3000 Table 11: Financial market indicator Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 13 30. IX 14 30. IX 14/ 31. VIII 14 30. IX 14/ 31. XII 13 30. IX 14/ 30. IX 13 Loans total 26,176.0 24,971.3 -0.4 -4.6 -17.3 Enterprises and NFI 15,594.8 14,496.1 -0.7 -7.0 -25.5 Government 1,664.0 1,662.6 0.6 -0.1 -1.0 Households 8,917.3 8,812.6 0.0 -1.2 -2.6 Consumer credits 2,213.4 2,146.1 -0.3 -3.0 -8.1 Lending for house purchase 5,306.5 5,331.8 0.0 0.5 1.4 Other lending 1,397.3 1,334.6 0.3 -4.5 -8.6 Bank deposits total 14,588.1 15,191.8 -0.3 4.1 3.4 Overnight deposits 6,446.6 7,139.2 -0.5 10.7 10.6 Short-term deposits 3,681.9 3,383.3 -1.2 -8.1 -9.7 Long-term deposits 4,456.1 4,664.8 0.6 4.7 4.1 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.5 4.5 -7.9 28.3 -45.1 Mutual funds 1,854.6 2,131.6 1.2 14.9 17.6 Government bank deposits, total 1,284.1 2,175.3 -13.9 69.4 -42.1 Overnight deposits 22.9 38.2 -92.1 66.8 -88.5 Short-term deposits 512.8 1,444.7 4.0 181.7 -22.1 Long-term deposits 738.5 616.8 1.8 -16.5 -59.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.8 75.6 64.8 668.9 27.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 28: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of domestic banks 2,000 --:-:—■ 1,500 1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total bonds -1,000 -1,500 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Creation of impairments and provisions and the share of arrears of more than 90 days in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments -Share of arrears of more than 90 days (right axis) 22 20 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 0 c^^ c^^ c^^ Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. The amount of household and government deposits at domestic banks is still higher than at the end of 2013, despite larger outflows21 in recent months. Household deposits were up approximately EUR 600 m in the first three quarters of 2014 (in the same period of 2013, 21 Household deposits declined by over EUR 50 m in September, while government deposits fell by almost EUR 440 m in August and September combined. down EUR 360 m). Their growth was mainly fuelled by increased overnight and long-term deposits. The amount of short-term deposits is declining: as a result of low interest rates, they are moving to overnight deposits in particular, according to our estimate. The volume of government deposits rose by nearly EUR 900 m in the first three quarters, a major factor in the increase being the transfer of the government's assets from the central bank to commercial banks. 500 0 -500 The deterioration in the quality of bank claims in the Slovenian banking system is easing. At the end of August, the share of arrears of more than 90 days was 14.8%, reaching EUR 5.9 bn, around EUR 420 m more than at the end of 2013. The amount of these claims dwindled for the second consecutive month. Their share is declining at a slower pace due to a concurrent contraction in bank lending activity. The creation of additional impairments and provisions also continues to slow, totalling around EUR 280 m in the first seven months to July, which is approximately two fifths of the level seen in the same period of 2013. In October, the yield to maturity of the euro bond remained similar to that in the previous month, while the spread against the German bond widened slightly. The yield to maturity of the euro bond otherwise rose in the second half of the month by 30 basis points to 2.84%. The increase coincided with the significant turmoil on euro bond markets. Figure 30: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond - Slovenia -Italy - Portugal ■ Ireland -Spain ----France c "D E o2 m ^^ ^^ Source: Bloomberg; calculations by IMAD. Public finance The general government deficit22 was EUR 1.058 bn in the first eight months, which is EUR 234.3 m less than in the same period of last year yet more than planned. The general government deficit, arising almost solely from the state budget, was around EUR 40 m higher at the end of the first eight months than foreseen in the adopted budget for 2014 (EUR 1,018 bn). According to the proposal for the rebalancing of the state budget approved by the government on 29 October, the deficit of the state budget will also be higher at the annual level (EUR 1.215 bn), but much lower than in 2013, when it was EUR 1.535 m. According to the revised budget, the general government deficit in 2014 will widen primarily as a result of higher-than-foreseen expenditure (up EUR 176.8 m). The increase in expenditure will be due to higher interest payments, transfers to the pension fund and expenditure on goods and services. The shortfall of revenue (by EUR 20 m) will have a smaller effect on the deficit, as the foregone real estate tax revenue was offset by higher non-tax revenues and increases in some tax revenues (notably VAT) owing to higher GDP growth than anticipated at the adoption of the 2014 budget in November 2013. Figure 31: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 17.5 o 16.5 16.0 .15 15.5 E 15.0 14.0 -General government revenue, total -General government expenditure, total c^^ c^^ Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. The year-on-year increase in general government revenue in the first eight months mainly stemmed from higher tax revenues, but was also the result of significantly higher nontax revenues and social security contributions. The majority of the year-on-year increase in tax revenue (excluding social contributions by EUR 288.4 m or 5.0%) stemmed from higher revenue from corporate income tax (by EUR 182.7 m or 140.5%), mainly as a result of lower refunds of overpaid tax for the previous year, and a higher amount of collected VAT (by EUR 163.4 m or 8.6%), which was mainly due to tax rate increases in July 2013 and to a lesser extent the recovery of the economy. Personal income tax was EUR 28.7 m (2.4%) higher as a result of more favourable labour market developments and the statutory changes in some tax allowances,23 while taxes on special services were up EUR 28.5 m (30.2%) due to last year's introduction of new taxes on financial services and lottery tickets. Taxes on property declined by EUR 43.8 m (28.6%) as a consequence of the delay in 22 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 23 Tying the mandatory valorisation of allowances and the brackets to more than 3% growth in consumer prices, and the abolition of seniority tax allowance. 7 6 5 c 14.5 4 3 0 Table 12: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-VIII 2014 VIII 2014/VIII 2013 I-VIII 2014/I-VIII 2013 I-VIII 2013 I-VIII 2014 General government revenue - total 9,879.3 -3.2 5.0 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 312.7 2.1 140.5 1.4 3.2 Personal income tax 1,235.8 1.4 2.4 12.8 12.5 Value added tax 2,058.2 7.2 8.6 20.1 20.8 Excise duties 912.1 -34.5 -5.8 10.3 9.2 Social security contributions 3,476.1 3.2 2.5 36.0 35.2 Other general government revenues 1,884.4 -12.0 3.6 19.3 19.1 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 13: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2013 2014 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VIII 14, EUR m I-VIII 14/I-VIII 13 growth, % Revenue - total 14,728.2 40.7 -1.8 9,879.3 5.0 - Tax revenues 12,648.4 35.0 -3.6 8,552.1 4.6 - Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 5.9 -19.5 1,548.6 15.6 - Social security contributions 5,127.2 14.2 -2.2 3,476.1 2.5 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 5,027.4 13.9 3.1 3,343.4 4.5 - Receipts from the EU budget 938.4 2.6 11.0 453.9 -6.8 Expenditure - total 16,286.4 45.1 1.0 10,937.0 2.2 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,616.7 10.0 -3.0 2,424.2 -0.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,238.9 6.2 -5.7 1,445.4 -2.6 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 840.1 2.3 29.7 730.3 17.8 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,343.1 17.5 -0.6 4,278.3 0.0 - Capital expenditure 1,031.8 2.9 12.8 717.3 58.7 - Capital transfers 319.5 0.9 -0.1 127.7 -8.0 - Payment to the EU budget 425.5 1.2 9.0 304.7 -7.1 Deficit -1,558.2 -4.3 38.3 -1,057.7 -18.1 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. collecting compensation for the use of building ground due to the non-enforcement of the real estate tax. Excise duties were also down in the first eight months (by EUR 56.7 m or 5.8%), due to the transfer of a part of the excise receipts from August to September as the date for the payment of excise duties fell on Saturday. Social security contributions increased by EUR 85.4 m (2.5%). The bulk of the year-on-year increase in non-tax revenue stems from one-off revenues, i.e. revenues from non-systemic fiscal sources. Non-tax revenues were up EUR 143.2 m (20.9%) year-on-year in the first eight months, which was due to the one-off revenue from the sale of wireless spectrum licences, the higher payments of treasury single account surpluses into the state budget and positive exchange rate differences. As the payments of EU funds under the European Cohesion Policy were suspended in March, the receipts from the EU budget into the state budget were lower year-on-year in the first eight months of 2014 (by EUR 33.0 m or 6.8%). Other revenues (capital transfers, donations received and transferred revenues) were down EUR 14.5 m (24.1%). Figure 32: Contributions of individual revenue categories to year-on-year revenue growth ■ Capital and transferred revenues and donations received ■ Receipts from the EU budget Non-tax revenues ■ Tax revenues , «Total revenues u -6 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 (Jan-Au Source: MF -Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by (J-a-n-AyUfiMA[ian-AUg' 4 2 0 -2 -4 2014 The year-on-year growth of general government expenditure in the first eight months was underpinned by strong growth in capital expenditure and transfers and interest payments, while all other major categories of expenditure were lower year-on-year or similar to last year's. In the first eight months as a whole, capital expenditure and capital transfers were up EUR 254.1 m (43.0%) year-on-year, while interest payments increased by EUR 110.3 m (17.8%) owing to the rising gross debt. The largest declines in this period were recorded by expenditure on goods and services (by EUR 38.8 m or 2.6%), reserves (by EUR 35.1 m or 38.3%) and payments to the EU budget (by EUR 23.2 m or 7.1%). The year-on-year decline in salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures including social security contributions was marginal (by EUR 6.4 m or 0.3%), arising from last year's reduction in supplementary pension insurance premiums. Current transfers were down EUR 25.7 m (0.5%). Within these, transfers to individuals and households remained roughly the same as in the comparable period last year, as the year-on-year increases in expenditure on pensions, social security transfers and scholarships24 were offset by the year-on year declines in transfers to the unemployed, family benefits and parental compensations, sickness benefits and other transfers to individuals. Subsidies fell by EUR 17 m (4.8%) on account of lower subsidies to the private sector (but not to public enterprises), current transfers abroad by EUR 14.7 m (23.0%) and transfers to nonprofit organisations and institutions by EUR 3.0 m (2.6%). Other current domestic transfers were up slightly (by EUR 7.2 m or 2.0%) due to the statutory payment of the first instalment of the claim to the Slovenian railway company. Figure 33: Contributions of individual expenditure categories to year-on-year expenditure growth Salaries, wages, other personnel expendit. with social security contribut. Expenditure on goods and services ■ Interest payments ■ Reserves ■ Current transfers ® Capital expenditure and capital transfers ■ Payments to the EU budget • Total expenditure 4 3 0 ä !2 -1 -3 (Jan-Aug) (Jan-Aug) Source: MF - Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. In the first nine months, Slovenia's net budgetary position in relation to the EU budget was positive at EUR 241.5 m (compared with EUR 176.4 m last year). In September, the receipts from the EU budget were the highest since March 2014 (EUR 111.1 m; in March 130.4 m). The highest were the receipts from Structural Funds (EUR 53.5 m) and the Cohesion Fund (EUR 48.5 m), and the lowest from funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 7.5 m). With EUR 16.0 m paid into the EU budget, the net surplus of the state budget against the EU budget reached EUR 95.1 m (in March EUR 97.1 m). In the first nine months of this year, Slovenia received EUR 562.3 m from the EU budget, 47.2% of the level planned in the draft revised budget for 2014 (45.3% in the comparable period last year). The highest absorption rate was recorded for funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (81.9%), and the lowest for receipts from the Cohesion Fund (32.2%). Slovenia's payments to the EU budget totalled EUR 320.8 m in the same period, 80.8 % of the amount planned. Figure 34: Receipts from the EU budget, 2013 and 2014 ■ Total receipts in 2014 (January-September) ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-December) Common Agricultural Policy Other 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Figure 35: Absorption from the EU budget, 2013 and 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised budget for 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised budget for 2013 Common Agricultural Policy 24 Since May 2013, expenditure on scholarships has also been covered from funds for special purposes within reserves. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 In % Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 2 ^ 1 -2 o -4 2010 2012 2013 2014 %J a o ■Ö 01 u 31 Ö! V) (In)solvency in Q3 2014 The solvency of legal entities and sole proprietors25 has improved this year regarding both the number of non-payers and the amounts due. Long-term outstanding liabilities remain a problem, but they are also declining this year. In the third quarter, the number of bankruptcy cases initiated against legal entities and sole proprietors fell considerably, while the number of personal bankruptcy proceedings surged. In the third quarter, there were 815 fewer legal entities with outstanding liabilities26 than in the same period last year, while the average daily amounts owed were down EUR 130 m year-on-year. The number of non-payers declined in most sectors, the most in construction, trade and manufacturing. The largest declines in the average daily amounts of outstanding matured liabilities were recorded in the sectors of financial and insurance activities, manufacturing, trade and construction. The latter still accounts for almost a quarter of all daily amounts due. Almost three quarters of legal entities with outstanding liabilities were micro27 enterprises, which accounted for more than half of all outstanding matured liabilities, while the corresponding share of large enterprises was 0.6% and the share of their outstanding liabilities lower than 8%. Figure 36: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average daily amounts of outstanding matured liabilities ^■Average no. of legal entities with outstanding matu red liabilities (left axis) -Average daily amounts of outstanding matured liabilities, EUR m (right axis) 800 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 cD 1= 4,000 z 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 a a a Source: AJPES. 25 Sole proprietors registered in the Business Register of Slovenia. 26 I.e., outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month. AJPES keeps records of outstanding matured liabilities according to writs of execution and from tax debt. These records do not include other outstanding liabilities from unpaid bills between creditors and debtors. 27 According to Article 55 of the Companies Act (ZGD-1), enterprises are classified as micro, small, medium-sized and large enterprises based on data from annual reports of two consecutive fiscal years. Figure 37: Average monthly amount of outstanding liabilities of legal entities Up to 3 months iFrom 3 months to 1year «Over 1 year 600,000 500,000 100,000 -I..... The solvency of sole proprietors28 is improving as well. In the third quarter, the average number of non-payers (7,832) was down 1,117 and the average daily amounts of unpaid liabilities (EUR 122 m) down 14.1% relative to the same period of last year. The problem however is long-term insolvency, given that almost half of all non-payers together account for more than 80% of the total average daily amounts of outstanding liabilities that are more than one year overdue. The majority of non-payers are in the sectors of construction (20.2%), trade (14.9%), accommodation and food service activities (12.6%), manufacturing (12.1%), and professional, scientific and technical activities (10.5%). In the third quarter, the number of bankruptcy proceedings29 against legal entities dropped by half in comparison with the previous four quarters. The number of bankruptcy proceedings initiated against legal entities, having doubled in the second half of 2013 and in the first half of 2014 as a result of the new legislation30 passed at the beginning of the second half of 2013, declined in the third quarter of 2014 to the level seen in the preceding three years.31 In the first three quarters, 38.9% more bankruptcy proceedings were filed against legal entities than in the comparable period last year, the most in the construction 28 Sole proprietors and natural persons pursuing registered business activities. 29 Bankruptcy proceedings are a form of winding-up an over-indebted or insolvent debtor. Under court supervision, bankruptcy proceedings are administered by the bankruptcy trustee, who liquidates the entire debtor property to obtain financial assets for settling creditor claims. Upon completion of the bankruptcy proceedings, the legal entity is deleted from the court register. 30 Act Amending the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act (ZFPPIPP), Official Gazette of the RS, No. 47/2013 from 31 May 2013, according to which the debtor no longer has to deposit an advance to cover the 31 While 139.3% more bankruptcy proceedings were initiated against legal entities in the first half of the year, the number of bankruptcy proceedings filed in the third quarter was 45% lower than in the third quarter of 2013. Table 14: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, September 2014 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities, Sep 2014 Growth in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, Sep 2014, in EUR '000 Growth in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities per legal entity, Sep 2014, in EUR '000 IX 14/ IX 13 I-IX 14/ I-IX 13 IX 14/ IX 13 I-IX 14/ I-IX 13 C Manufacturing 790 -15.2 -12.1 71,884 -35.6 -28.5 91 F Constrution 1,215 -22.4 -13.4 146,031 -17.6 -14.4 120 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,317 -11.7 -9.1 72,830 -31.5 -34.8 55 H Transportation and storage 330 -16.5 -10.6 23,164 -29.2 -10.0 70 I Accommodation and food service ctivities 554 -3.7 2.2 33,570 -11.9 28.2 61 K Financial and insurance activities 104 -12.6 4.0 41,940 -60.5 -12.0 403 L Real estate activities 175 -28.6 -14.4 50,197 8.9 -0.6 287 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 852 -11.0 -3.0 84,006 24.7 50.0 99 N Administrative and support service activities 213 -14.1 -9.0 14,725 -10.4 -33.5 69 Other activities (A,B,D,E,J,O-S) 894 -10.5 -5.6 76,762 39.5 40.0 86 Total 6,444 -14.4 -8.3 615,109 -18.8 -8.1 95 Source: AJPES. Table 15: Number of business entities against which bankruptcy proceedings and deletions from the register of companies because of insolvency in the first nine months of 2014 Total Companies Sole proprietors Other* Initiated bankruptcy proceedings 970 828 124 18 Deletions from the register due to bankruptcy 589 472 110 7 Initiated compulsory settlement proceedings 35 32 2 1 Initiated simplified compulsory settlement proceedings 79 77 2 - Initiated compulsory liquidation proceedings 9 4 - 5 Deletions from the register due to compulsory liquidation 2 0 2 Initiated voluntary liquidation proceedings 77 35 - 42 Deletions from the register due to voluntary liquidation 55 19 36 Source: AJPES. Note: * The column "Other" does not include bankruptcy proceedings against natural persons who are not engaged in registered activities (i.e. not registered with the Slovenian Business Register). sector (23.5%) and trade (23.3%), and more than 10% in manufacturing and professional, scientific and technical activities. In the same period, 38% more legal entities were deleted from the register of companies owing to insolvency32 and, hence, bankruptcy than in the same period last year. The number of bankruptcy proceedings against sole proprietors33 declined in the third quarter. Nevertheless, 87 more bankruptcy proceedings were filed in the first nine months, and 70.3% more sole proprietors were deleted from the business register than in the comparable period last year. More than two thirds of all bankruptcy proceedings against sole proprietors were initiated in the sectors of construction, trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food service activities and manufacturing. 32 Insolvency is the situation where a debtor, in a longer period, can no longer meet its financial obligations that became due 33 Sole proprietors registered in the Business Register of Slovenia. Figure 38: Bankruptcy proceedings initiated against companies and co-operatives and sole proprietors in Slovenia Bankruptcy proceedings against legal entities (left axis) —■—Bankruptcy proceedings against sole proprietors (right axis) 35^ I...................., - I 60 300 ^200 (u -Q 1= ^^150 30 E z a a a a a a Source: AJPES - Business Register of Slovenia. 50 250 40 20 100 10 50 0 0 In the first eight months, the number of personal bankruptcies34 was almost three times higher than in the entire 2013. The increase was attributable to the legislative amendment, which exempted all bankruptcy petitioners from depositing an initial advance. Since December 2013, the initial costs of bankruptcy proceedings have thus been automatically covered by the court, while previously only those entitled to free legal aid were exempted from paying the advance. The amount of reported claims, EUR 3 m in 2008, exceeded EUR 540 m at the end of August. Figure 39: Personal bankruptcies Amount of reported claims (right axis) -Initiated (left axis) 3000 -Finished (left axis) 2,500 iS 2,000 ;; 1,500 1,000 500 400 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 * Source: Supreme Court of the RS. Note: * until 31 August 2014. In compliance with the Act on Prevention of Late Payments,35 the 42nd round36 of compulsory and voluntary multilateral set-offs was conducted in September 2014. A total of 6,338 debtors (116 more than in the 41s' round) reported EUR 536.4 m in liabilities against 26,646 creditors (376 fewer than in the previous round). In this round, 63.9% of debtors managed to set off at least part of their obligations, but the total amount set off was only EUR 35.6 m. In all 42 rounds together, the mutual indebtedness of business entities in Slovenia was reduced by EUR 2.1 bn. 34 According to data from the Supreme Court of the RS. Personal bankruptcy proceedings are conducted against a natural person having permanent or temporary residence in the Republic of Slovenia; against a consumer having no permanent or temporary residence in the Slovenia if he received a salary in the Republic of Slovenia as well as other regular other remunerations, or if his assets are in the Republic of Slovenia; against a sole proprietor or a private person having neither permanent nor temporary residence in the Republic of Slovenia if his registered office is in the Republic of Slovenia. 35 ZPreZP-1 (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 57/2012, from 27 July 2012), which took effect on 28 July 2012. 36 This was the 42nd round of compulsory multilateral set-offs since April 2011, when the Act entered into force. 37 The target for Slovenia was set in the National Reform Programme, November 2010. For Slovenia, this means a reduction in the number of persons at risk of poverty or social exclusion from 361.000 in 2008 to 320.000 in 2020. 38 The at-risk-of-poverty threshold calculated for 2013 decreased, meaning that some people who were previously below the poverty line moved above the line even though their income remained the same. 39 For more on the at-risk-of-poverty rate see SEM, September 2014, IMAD, Ljubljana. 40 4.4 of the 9 material deprivation items measured (see Tables 17 and 18). Risk of social exclusion and material deprivation The risk of social exclusion increased further in Slovenia in 2013 but remained lower than on average in the EU overall. The indicator of this risk consists of three sub-indicators: i) at-risk-of-poverty rate; ii) severe material deprivation rate (deprivation in at least four of nine material deprivation items); and iii) the proportion of persons living in households with very low work intensity (less than 20% of a household's total work potential). Persons are only counted once even if they are present in several sub-indicators. The composite measure of social exclusion risk stood at 20.4% in 2013, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than in the previous year. The share of the population at risk of social exclusion rose by 1.9 percentage points compared with 2008. One of Slovenia's targets under the Europe 2020 strategy is reducing the number of persons at risk of social exclusion to 320.000.37 However, Slovenia is moving further and further away from this goal, with 410,000 people at risk of social exclusion in 2013, 18,000 more than in the preceding year. Slovenia is still below the EU average regarding the risk of social exclusion, but the gap is closing. All components of social exclusion rose in 2013. The proportion of persons living in households with very low work intensity rose by 0.5 percentage points or 7,000 persons. Their number was up 20,000 relative to 2008. In 2013, the at-risk-of-poverty rate38 increased by 1 percentage point or 20,000 persons and was 50,000 persons higher than 2008.39 Severe material deprivation rose the least, by 0.1 percentage points (1,000 persons). Its rate was at the level of 2008, although 4,000 more persons were severely materially deprived. They lacked 4.4 items, on average, which is the same as in 2008.40 Figure 40: Risk of social exclusion, Slovenia and the EU Difference between the EU and Slovenia (right axis) -EU 27 (left axis) -Slovenia (left axis) I----------------- 9 27 24 21 18 ^15 12 9 6 3 0 8 7 6 5 IJ C 4 3 ^^^ 2 1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 600 300 500 100 0 0 Table 16: Risk of social exclusion and its components, 2005-2013 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate (in %) 18.5 17.1 17.1 18.5 17.1 18.3 19.3 19.6 20.4 Number of persons at high risk of social exclusion (in thousands) 362 343 335 361 339 366 386 392 410 Proportion of persons living in households with very low work intensity (in %) 8.6 6.9 7.2 6.7 5.6 6.9 7.6 7.5 8.0 Number of persons living in households with very low work intensity 134 109 114 105 88 111 121 118 125 At-risk-of-poverty rate (in %) 12.2 11.6 11.5 12.3 11.3 12.7 13.6 13.5 14.5 Number of persons below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (in thousands) 238 233 225 241 223 254 273 271 291 Severe material deprivation rate (4 of 9) (in %) 5.10 5.10 5.10 6.70 6.10 5.90 6.10 6.60 6.70 Above the at-risk-of-poverty threshold 3 3 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 Below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold 18 18 19 22 20 21 20 23 23 Number of severely materially deprived (in thousands) 100 102 100 130 121 119 122 133 134 Source: Eurostat. Table 17: Material deprivation by item, 2005-2013, in % Inability: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 to cover unexpected expenses 42.9 43.4 41.6 44.5 40.6 45.1 46.7 45.7 45.8 to afford one week of holiday 32.6 31.2 29.6 30.4 30.4 31.4 31.7 29.6 30.9 to pay for arrears (mortgage or rent, utility bills or hire purchase instalments) in the last 12 months 15.4 13.8 14.2 16.1 18.4 19.5 19.0 21.0 21.2 to afford a meal with meat (or vegetarian equivalent) 9.3 10.7 10.3 12.0 10.6 8.5 10.4 8.9 9.7 to keep home adequately warm 2.6 3.0 4.2 5.6 4.6 4.7 5.4 6.1 4.9 to afford a car 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 to afford a computer* 6.1 6.6 6.2 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 3.0 to afford a colour TV 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 to afford a washing machine 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 to afford a telephone 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Source: Eurostat. Note: Shaded cells denote the highest values. * Computer is not (yet) taken into account as one of the (severe) material deprivation items. Table 18: Material deprivation by item, and the shares of persons making ends meet with difficulty, relative to the at- Inability: Total Above the poverty threshold Below the poverty threshold to cover unexpected expenses 45.8 41.0 74.0 to afford one week of holiday 30.9 25.8 61.3 to pay for arrears (mortgage or rent, utility bills or hire purchase instalments) in the last 12 months 21.2 18.4 37.7 to afford a meal with meat (or vegetarian equivalent) 9.7 7.1 24.7 to keep home adequately warm 4.9 3.5 13.1 to afford a car 3.8 2.0 14.7 to afford a computer* 3.0 1.6 11.1 to afford a colour TV 0.5 0.2 2.2 to afford a washing machine 0.3 0.1 1.7 to afford a telephone 0.2 0.0 1.5 to make ends meet 72.4 69.6 88.8 In Slovenia, most of the materially deprived41 people are regarded as such because they are unable to cover unexpected expenses, afford a one-week annual holiday away from home, or are in arrears on housing-related bills. The share of those who have difficulties paying housing-related bills increased the most during the crisis, reaching 21.2% in 2013, which is 5.1 percentage points more than in 2008. Single-parent households (38.4%) and households of two adults and one child (28.3%), whose situation deteriorated the most relative to 2012 (by 3.1 percentage points), find it hardest to meet their housing costs. The situation of single households aged 65 years and more also deteriorated significantly (by 2.6 percentage points to 6.9%), but these have the least problems paying these costs. Furthermore, more and more households manage to live on their income with difficulty.42 In 2013, the share of such households was the highest thus far, at 72.4% (69.6% of those living above the at-risk-of-poverty threshold and 88.8% of those below this threshold). Material deprivation of people living below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold is substantially higher. Source: Eurostat. Note: »* Computer is not (yet) taken into account as one of the (severe) material deprivation items. 41 Deprivation in at least three of nine material deprivation items. 42 I.e. with great difficulty, with difficulty, with some difficulty combined. X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Autumn forecast 2014 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.6 -1.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,166 36,220 36,868 36,006 36,144 36,931 37,755 38,789 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,714 17,678 17,960 17,506 17,550 17,899 18,277 18,761 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,200 20,600 21,200 21,400 21,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 86.2 84.2 84.3 83.7 82.7 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,673 35,868 36,558 35,737 35,877 36,266 37,240 38,256 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,350 35,725 36,473 35,509 35,702 36,053 37,009 37,927 Rate of registered unemployment 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.7 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) -6.1 3.5 2.2 -1.8 0.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 Inflation,2 year average 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 0.6 1.2 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -16.6 10.1 7.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 4.3 4.9 Exports of goods -17.0 11.9 8.2 0.0 2.8 4.3 4.8 5.1 Exports of services -14.8 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 2.5 4.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -18.8 6.6 5.0 -3.9 1.4 3.1 4.2 4.5 Imports of goods -19.8 7.4 6.0 -4.6 2.2 2.2 4.3 4.5 Imports of services -12.8 2.5 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 9.0 3.7 4.3 Current account balance, in EUR million -173 -50 146 1,026 2,101 2,024 2,128 2,221 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.5 -0.1 0.4 2.8 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.7 Gross external debt, in EUR million 40,318 40,723 40,100 41,264 39,930 44.592* As a per cent share relative to GDP 111.5 112.4 108.8 114.6 110.5 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.353 1.332 1.332 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.9 1.0 -0.1 -3.0 -3.9 0.5 1.3 1.8 As a % of GDP4 54.7 55.9 55.8 56.2 54.1 53.2 52.9 52.9 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.4 0.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 As a % of GDP4 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.4 19.3 18.9 18.4 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -22.0 -13.7 -4.6 -8.9 1.9 4.5 2.5 0.5 As a % of GDP4 24.3 21.2 20.2 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.6 20.5 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2014). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. 2Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End August 2014. PRODUCTION 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 2.5 4.6 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 B Mining and quarrying -7.9 -7.4 1.3 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 6.7 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -2.4 33.9 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 C Manufacturing 1.1 -2.3 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.9 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 3.0 3.2 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 5.0 10.5 3.9 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.9 3.2 3.1 0.1 13.7 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -24.8 -16.8 -2.5 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.8 36.8 38.6 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 Buildings -39.7 -17.3 -20.4 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 6.7 9.0 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 Civil engineering -15.3 -16.6 6.3 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 1.7 27.1 52.5 52.3 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 3.2 -3.4 0.1 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.9 -1.8 3.9 1.8 -9.5 2.2 Tonne-km in rail transport 9.7 -7.5 9.5 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 13.4 24.9 13.0 15.7 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.3 -3.6 -1.0 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.4 -1.1 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 -2.7 -2.7 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 7.0 -6.3 4.7 -7.2 -10.1 -5.3 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.6 8.6 -1.6 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.0 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.7 6.2 3.1 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 5.3 1.2 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 -14.0 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 0.5 -4.9 -3.4 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -8.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 9.1 5.6 2.8 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 -0.6 -17.4 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 3.7 -1.1 -1.4 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.0 0.5 2.9 2.9 3.5 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.9 480.4 478.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 113.6 122.8 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -7 -17 -13 -16 -19 -20 -15 -14 -13 -12 -8 -2 -21 -22 -21 -17 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 -11 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -6 -4 -3 -1 3 -16 -15 -14 -10 - in construction -46 -41 -22 -45 -39 -39 -30 -23 -17 -18 -14 -9 -40 -41 -40 -35 - in services 1 -12 -12 -8 -14 -17 -12 -12 -11 -11 -4 7 -16 -19 -19 -14 - in retail trade 8 2 1 4 1 -4 -3 1 6 1 5 8 8 -8 -5 0 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -35 -33 -36 -39 -37 -29 -34 -34 -35 -29 -25 -46 -39 -37 -34 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2013 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -0.1 -0.7 -6.5 2.8 -2.5 -5.1 1.2 -5.7 0.8 -1.6 -0.4 8.0 1.6 0.3 5.5 3.2 2.3 8.5 7.9 1.9 - -11.6 9.9 23.2 -4.0 -11.0 -13.7 2.4 -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 6.0 74.1 31.1 -0.3 -30.0 73.1 17.9 9.2 -20.4 -27.7 -1.3 -0.9 -8.7 2.5 -2.7 -5.5 1.1 -6.7 0.6 -2.2 -0.4 7.7 2.0 0.5 6.1 1.2 0.2 8.3 7.0 2.1 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -0.9 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 5.5 -4.8 -0.9 6.4 12.6 19.2 9.4 20.5 5.4 - -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -5.3 -5.9 28.2 31.4 6.8 34.5 28.8 44.6 44.0 44.6 29.5 26.4 27.7 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 3.1 0.8 6.2 4.7 8.5 8.8 16.6 3.1 18.3 21.8 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.2 -5.5 31.8 41.5 6.3 49.1 41.1 63.0 60.8 57.3 41.7 30.4 29.9 - - - - - - - - - - -4.9 -8.6 -7.7 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.3 -3.4 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.8 2.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 -3.1 -2.7 8.6 1.4 - -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.6 -3.9 -0.9 -1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 3.3 -2.9 -2.5 3.5 -0.3 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.4 16.3 8.8 6.9 10.1 1.5 -3.4 -2.9 19.4 5.9 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.3 1.8 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.4 6.0 0.0 3.4 6.8 2.5 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 7.8 -2.9 4.8 -5.1 -1.3 - -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 -3.6 1.0 -1.3 -7.7 -8.7 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 15.5 -4.9 8.3 -3.8 2.1 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.6 1.3 3.9 0.7 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.2 4.3 2.9 3.3 1.1 5.6 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 42.6 39.4 40.7 48.0 38.8 - - -16 -15 -13 -14 -15 -13 -14 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -9 -9 -6 -5 0 0 1 -1 0 2 -11 -8 -8 -9 -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -5 -2 -2 -3 0 1 1 3 6 7 2 1 2 -30 -30 -31 -25 -22 -21 -22 -15 -15 -17 -17 -19 -16 -17 -9 -15 -4 -7 -7 -11 -11 -9 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -13 -13 -10 -11 -5 -6 -2 4 10 7 8 7 7 10 2 -9 -2 -5 -8 17 14 1 3 12 -6 -3 9 2 3 3 17 3 12 5 7 13 -30 -31 -26 -26 -38 -38 -38 -33 -32 -35 -35 -34 -30 -30 -27 -29 -25 -22 -19 -21 -14 -12 LABOUR MARKET 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.7 920.2 913.4 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 912.9 919.8 913.8 918.0 916.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 824.0 810.0 793.6 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 784.2 799.6 808.3 807.1 805.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.8 37.0 38.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.1 37.6 37.5 37.4 In industry, construction 272.9 263.1 252.2 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 249.0 252.9 262.2 261.1 259.5 Of which: in manufacturing 184.8 182.9 177.7 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 177.3 178.2 182.1 181.8 181.2 in construction 67.8 59.8 54.3 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 51.5 54.6 59.6 59.0 58.1 In services 512.3 510.0 503.2 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 503.5 509.7 508.5 508.5 508.1 Of which: in public administration 51.4 50.7 49.1 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 49.0 50.7 50.2 50.2 in education, health-services, social work 118.8 120.9 121.0 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.6 122.4 120.8 121.1 121.3 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 729.1 717.0 698.7 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 703.5 715.2 713.7 711.6 In enterprises and organisations 671.8 662.6 647.6 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 645.2 653.1 660.5 659.2 657.7 By those self-employed 57.2 54.5 51.1 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 50.4 54.7 54.5 53.9 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 93.0 94.9 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 90.4 96.1 93.1 93.4 93.4 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.7 110.2 119.8 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 128.8 120.2 105.4 110.9 111.5 Female 52.1 52.2 57.4 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 61.2 59.4 50.5 53.3 53.3 By age: under 26 12.9 11.9 13.8 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 12.3 15.6 16.1 14.2 10.1 14.2 14.0 aged over 50 39.0 38.2 38.9 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 37.7 37.1 37.0 37.1 Osnovnošolska izobrazba ali manj 34.1 33.3 34.2 32.9 31.8 33.2 36.5 34.1 32.6 33.6 36.4 33.8 31.5 32.2 32.5 For more than 1 year 50.2 55.2 55.4 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 57.7 60.7 59.9 54.3 54.3 53.6 Those receiving benefits 36.3 33.9 33.0 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 32.7 26.2 31.2 31.5 31.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.8 12.0 13.1 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 11.5 12.1 12.2 Male 11.4 11.5 12.5 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.5 12.1 10.9 11.4 11.6 Female 12.4 12.6 13.8 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 14.2 12.3 12.9 12.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 2.7 5.3 6.0 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -9.4 -0.6 5.4 0.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.4 16.3 19.1 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 4.2 2.7 1.4 6.3 1.8 Redundancies 82.2 90.3 88.7 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 17.3 7.3 8.4 8.2 Registered unemployed who found employment 61.0 58.3 65.1 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 20.7 20.5 5.5 4.9 5.1 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.8 43.1 37.3 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 6.8 8.8 3.8 4.3 4.3 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.6 33.9 30.5 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.3 25.7 33.9 33.6 33.3 As % of labour force 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2012 2013 2014 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 914.4 920.2 919.8 919.4 918.0 916.5 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 787.7 796.6 800.1 802.1 801.8 801.7 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 32.0 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 250.0 252.0 253.3 253.4 253.9 253.7 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.1 178.4 178.5 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.6 53.9 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 505.7 507.8 509.7 511.4 510.4 510.5 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 48.9 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.5 121.3 121.1 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 696.9 700.8 704.0 705.6 705.1 704.9 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 647.8 651.0 653.6 654.7 654.1 653.6 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.0 51.3 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 90.7 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 126.7 123.6 119.7 117.4 116.2 114.8 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.3 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.6 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.3 15.8 15.1 14.1 13.3 12.6 12.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.9 36.6 35.0 36.7 36.8 35.9 35.1 34.0 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.3 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 34.7 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.0 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 56.6 57.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 60.5 60.7 59.9 59.2 59.0 58.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 31.3 27.4 26.0 25.2 24.7 23.8 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.4 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.8 6.6 4.8 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 8.5 7.3 7.2 6.0 5.4 4.1 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.9 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 2.0 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 -1.1 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.3 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 B Mining and quarrying 3.8 3.6 -2.0 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 8.3 -0.2 1.5 1.7 C Manufacturing 3.9 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 0.3 5.2 0.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.2 -1.1 8.3 7.8 -6.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities -0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.2 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 F Constrution 2.0 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.8 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 H Transportation and storage 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 I Accommodation and food service activities 2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 J Information and communication 0.9 -0.4 -1.4 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 K Financial and insurance activities 0.6 1.1 0.1 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 -4.0 L Real estate activities 2.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4 -1.1 -2.4 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 0.5 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 N Administrative and support service activities 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 3.3 2.7 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 0.3 -1.8 -1.4 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 1.2 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 P Education 0.2 -3.3 -3.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 Q Human health and social work activities -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation -0.7 -2.8 -3.0 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 S Other service activities 0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -0.1 -1.2 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 Real (deflator HICP) -1.0 -1.1 1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 Real (deflator ULC) -2.2 -2.9 -1.9 -3.2 -3.5 -2.7 -2.2 -1.3 -0.9 -3.3 -2.3 USD/EUR 1.3917 1.2856 1.3282 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3602 1.3658 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 2014 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 0.9 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.8 1.5 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 -0.9 7.2 10.4 7.3 10.1 12.2 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 4.3 4.6 1.1 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 10.3 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 1.1 0.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 -1.3 1.7 1.6 -0.5 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -6.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 0.9 -0.2 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -1.1 2.8 4.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 3.4 2.9 -0.3 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.1 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.3 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 1.3610 1.3659 1.3823 1.3813 1.3732 1.3592 1.3539 1.3316 PRICES 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q4 9 10 11 12 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.6 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 Clothing and footwear -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.6 3.8 3.1 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 -0.3 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 Furnishings, household equipment 2.7 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.0 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.6 0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 Transport 1.0 3.3 0.3 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 1.9 -0.1 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 Communications 1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.8 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 Recreation and culture -1.5 1.4 0.1 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 Education 1.7 2.9 2.6 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 Catering services -6.8 4.5 6.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.0 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.2 2.4 1.3 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 HCPI 2.1 2.8 1.9 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 Domestic market 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 Non-domestic market 5.3 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 euro area 6.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 non-euro area 3.6 2.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 Import price indices 5.4 1.9 -0.4 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 10.9 12.7 0.2 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -0.2 -1.5 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 Oil products 11.9 13.0 1.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 4.2 1.7 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 Transport & communications 1.1 1.6 11.3 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 15.8 7.3 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 Other controlled prices 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 5.7 3.2 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 Direct control - total 2.8 9.2 1.2 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 2.6 0.4 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2013 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.2 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -3.1 -3.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.2 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.9 -2.9 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 1.4 -0.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 6.4 6.4 4.2 3.6 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.0 -0.7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q^ Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 146 1,026 2,101 241 288 474 499 607 499 497 360 567 49 189 192 227 Goods1 -957 -171 645 -45 60 24 129 242 252 23 297 302 -72 84 43 98 Exports 21,450 21,631 22,026 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,367 5,635 5,433 5,590 5,696 5,867 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 Imports 22,407 21,802 21,381 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,239 5,393 5,181 5,567 5,399 5,566 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 Services 1,476 1,720 1,960 420 493 402 496 527 551 387 359 465 176 180 179 142 Exports 4,842 5,081 5,366 1,210 1,467 1,299 1,202 1,310 1,535 1,320 1,176 1,366 500 466 463 412 Imports 3,365 3,361 3,406 789 974 897 706 783 984 933 817 901 323 285 285 270 Income -524 -540 -564 -165 -195 -37 -56 -192 -234 -83 -220 -219 -31 -55 -7 -14 Receipts 936 698 503 188 173 206 124 110 130 139 152 199 55 64 58 59 Expenditure 1,460 1,238 1,066 354 368 243 180 302 364 221 372 417 86 119 65 72 Current transfers 151 16 60 30 -70 85 -70 30 -70 170 -76 20 -24 -21 -22 1 Receipts 1,404 1,409 1,462 366 284 411 335 359 296 472 327 388 85 88 90 108 Expenditure 1,253 1,392 1,402 335 355 326 405 328 366 302 403 368 109 109 113 108 Capital and financial account -474 -991 -2,822 -211 -468 -421 -868 -695 -696 -562 -536 -673 -221 -217 -334 -312 Capital account -85 41 109 44 4 -16 31 -4 5 76 0 -39 1 -18 -2 -29 Financial account -389 -1,032 -2,931 -255 -472 -404 -900 -691 -702 -639 -536 -634 -223 -199 -332 -283 Direct investment 633 168 -599 91 84 -152 -101 -649 68 83 68 506 -29 26 -46 32 Domestic abroad -85 226 186 124 43 16 -25 118 62 32 -10 -81 44 -15 -5 42 Foreign in Slovenia 718 -58 -786 -33 41 -168 -76 -767 6 51 78 587 -73 41 -40 -10 Portfolio investment 1,839 -222 3,982 120 -982 1,564 130 2,100 -425 2,176 3,102 1,191 -152 -187 1,674 -55 Financial derivatives -155 -89 -32 -21 -31 -15 -20 13 -10 -15 2 14 -3 -19 -7 -2 Other investment -2,777 -920 -6,276 -439 478 -1,820 -976 -2,136 -252 -2,912 -3,551 -2,337 -35 -43 -1,980 -270 Assets -1,490 -1,514 -2,263 -78 237 -217 -1,225 -845 66 -258 -1,854 -2,220 159 -54 -290 -443 Commercial credits -49 64 -16 -38 108 340 -364 -51 90 308 -242 -79 158 -65 -28 38 Loans -55 -313 -19 -95 84 -304 23 -176 88 45 80 37 51 -8 17 -49 Currency and deposits -1,341 -1,218 -2,069 31 0 -127 -867 -545 -120 -536 -1,637 -2,143 -66 20 -128 -428 Other assets -46 -47 -159 24 45 -126 -17 -73 7 -76 -54 -35 15 0 -151 -4 Liabilities -1,287 595 -4,013 -361 241 -1,603 249 -1,290 -317 -2,654 -1,697 -117 -194 11 -1,689 173 Commercial credits 107 268 -159 138 -94 62 -300 93 -200 247 -175 73 -144 57 5 21 Loans -1,234 -723 409 -227 -173 -202 373 599 -532 -31 -361 -76 -63 -30 13 -190 Deposits -169 1,026 -4,246 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 -1,176 -117 12 -9 -1,726 358 Other liabilities 9 24 -16 17 -22 40 -12 -2 -15 12 15 3 1 -6 18 -17 International reserves2 72 31 -5 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -83 30 -157 -8 -3 23 26 11 Statistical error 328 -35 721 -30 180 -53 369 88 197 66 176 105 172 28 141 86 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,042 2,112 2,163 569 514 552 521 533 531 579 552 590 164 179 193 191 Intermediate goods 12,008 12,138 12,425 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,051 3,159 3,115 3,100 3,261 3,285 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 Consumer goods 6,950 6,811 6,960 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,673 1,824 1,672 1,791 1,775 1,874 460 590 610 628 Import of investment goods 2,505 2,402 2,573 584 570 687 646 667 564 696 643 689 163 190 219 209 Intermediate goods 14,107 14,005 13,635 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,457 3,448 3,282 3,448 3,314 3,384 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 Consumer goods 5,943 5,671 5,906 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,392 1,485 1,475 1,554 1,517 1,608 447 461 530 508 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2012 2013 2014 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 55 81 102 316 271 114 222 150 152 197 187 95 214 75 -6 291 251 121 195 201 101 -117 -53 58 123 132 -21 131 154 9 89 59 -4 -33 88 54 156 142 -3 163 140 -22 1,537 1,710 1,731 1,926 1,956 1,839 1,840 1,964 1,545 1,924 2,023 1,905 1,662 1,851 1,816 2,030 2,006 1,875 1,987 2,074 1,584 1,654 1,763 1,673 1,803 1,824 1,861 1,708 1,810 1,536 1,835 1,964 1,908 1,695 1,763 1,762 1,874 1,864 1,878 1,823 1,934 1,606 82 166 120 210 167 181 178 195 198 158 151 125 112 100 94 165 150 166 148 186 229 424 388 352 461 426 434 450 526 530 479 453 408 459 383 347 446 445 462 459 548 547 342 222 232 251 259 252 272 331 332 322 302 283 348 283 253 281 294 295 311 362 319 -16 -4 -3 -48 -51 -60 -81 -157 -36 -41 -24 -19 -39 -68 -78 -74 -66 -62 -90 -69 -74 90 39 39 46 35 35 39 46 45 39 39 44 56 50 48 54 64 68 67 63 58 106 43 42 94 86 95 120 203 80 81 63 63 95 118 126 128 130 130 158 132 133 106 -28 -73 31 23 14 -7 -43 -19 -8 2 -7 175 -45 -75 44 25 21 -26 -55 -32 212 86 96 153 140 116 103 101 92 102 103 89 280 79 87 161 161 133 94 82 57 105 114 169 122 116 102 110 145 111 110 101 95 106 124 162 116 136 112 120 137 89 225 -412 -99 -357 -295 -132 -267 -109 -290 -297 -446 -117 1 -82 69 -522 -251 -81 -341 -210 -145 14 12 7 12 12 -14 -1 16 0 -11 22 9 45 1 0 -2 7 -29 -17 19 -17 211 -424 -106 -369 -307 -118 -266 -125 -290 -287 -468 -126 -45 -83 68 -521 -258 -52 -324 -229 -128 -138 22 -1 -122 -695 0 45 151 -22 -61 232 -100 -49 32 86 -50 222 163 121 63 127 -21 21 22 -68 20 50 47 19 14 29 50 9 -27 -24 9 6 -49 37 -69 43 39 -117 2 -24 -54 -715 -50 -2 132 -36 -90 182 -109 -22 56 77 -55 271 126 190 20 88 -56 -155 16 270 -142 2,589 -346 -130 -90 -204 -24 1,828 372 410 2,740 -47 950 215 26 326 -109 -6 -15 -2 -4 18 -14 9 -6 -2 -2 -5 -1 -9 1 3 -2 12 0 2 -4 3 429 -298 -130 -547 495 -2,719 88 -58 -179 -15 -671 -1,847 -394 -464 -2,644 -442 -1,448 -419 -469 -615 -171 516 -350 -302 -573 -231 -448 -166 -73 166 -27 -501 -137 379 -468 -1,209 -176 -1,293 -350 -577 -352 -3 330 -61 -85 -217 -25 55 -80 -2 182 -89 -53 20 341 -56 -102 -84 -107 82 -54 21 147 -272 2 8 13 -67 -68 -42 9 75 3 -33 -15 94 -12 28 64 -32 22 47 65 9 429 -286 -225 -356 -70 -441 -34 -79 -99 58 -346 -94 -97 -358 -1,169 -111 -1,114 -438 -591 -452 -124 29 -5 1 -13 -69 6 -10 -1 8 0 -68 -48 41 -43 34 -45 -40 -16 21 14 -34 -86 52 171 26 727 -2,271 254 15 -345 12 -170 -1,710 -774 4 -1,435 -266 -155 -69 107 -262 -168 35 -235 86 -152 -5 35 64 -127 -137 64 80 136 31 -283 93 15 -75 1 147 -80 -44 -25 31 -152 495 674 -18 -57 -375 42 -199 6 -8 -29 19 -219 -161 -8 -89 21 -152 -201 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 224 -1,296 -104 -58 -19 -40 -9 47 39 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -8 3 5 5 44 -13 -16 -14 39 -22 -22 30 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -4 1 -6 35 -62 -116 21 7 -11 -4 2 20 -280 331 -3 41 25 18 45 -40 138 100 258 22 -215 7 -63 232 0 -40 145 9 45 168 157 160 203 182 178 173 204 149 178 197 197 185 168 180 204 202 183 204 206 N/A 777 998 980 1,073 1,102 1,045 1,012 1,115 912 1,088 1,163 1,069 869 1,089 1,030 1,142 1,129 1,068 1,088 1,159 N/A 550 508 555 611 632 577 614 604 449 619 623 599 569 559 570 646 633 584 657 663 N/A 259 197 195 254 219 260 189 204 155 205 221 241 234 185 202 256 242 222 226 229 N/A 978 1,218 1,104 1,136 1,195 1,196 1,057 1,165 987 1,130 1,237 1,208 1,003 1,122 1,063 1,129 1,114 1,146 1,124 1,189 N/A 448 444 465 482 491 489 505 509 438 528 549 516 490 474 517 527 547 550 511 552 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 102 221 233 188 204 227 227 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 Central government (S. 1311) 4,299 5,057 6,563 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,805 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 584 610 581 580 584 589 590 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,454 9,267 8,917 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 20,876 19,470 14,902 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,488 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,229 2,135 1,763 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,445 5,194 5,020 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,237 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,692 34,558 29,620 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,422 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 In foreign currency 1,536 1,309 1,097 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 Securities, total 5,659 5,862 7,026 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 28,420 29,582 27,051 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 29,460 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 Overnight 8,245 8,678 8,558 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,633 8,523 8,651 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,868 7,056 6,689 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 With agreed maturity -long-term 12,248 13,780 11,569 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,851 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 59 68 235 83 78 66 55 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 Deposits in foreign currency, total 579 552 487 559 583 597 591 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 Overnight 386 372 324 381 397 410 412 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 With agreed maturity -short-term 133 123 91 116 125 125 119 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 With agreed maturity -long-term 59 56 72 61 60 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.15 2.31 1.86 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.46 5.48 5.40 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.69 5.32 3.86 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.39 0.57 0.22 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 6-month rates 1.64 0.83 0.34 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 6-month rates 0.18 0.15 - 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2013 2014 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 245 209 227 228 229 230 230 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,448 6,437 6,476 6,154 6,262 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 584 582 577 582 594 596 606 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 8,853 8,850 8,835 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,902 14,691 14,599 14,543 14,531 14,429 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,763 1,993 1,968 1,962 1,945 1,929 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 4,818 5,012 4,863 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 29,154 29,298 29,017 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 1,046 1,036 1,025 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,026 6,921 6,944 7,028 6,731 6,845 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 27,034 27,187 27,067 26,578 27,060 26,869 26,317 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 8,979 9,278 9,390 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 6,893 7,215 7,088 6,955 6,876 6,928 6,958 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 10,852 10,389 10,252 9,689 9,585 9,368 9,026 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 310 305 337 352 363 435 463 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 490 496 496 508 510 516 538 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 333 335 336 350 345 354 354 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 90 94 92 90 96 92 115 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 67 67 68 68 69 70 69 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 5.26 5.58 5.23 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.96 4.21 6.63 5.51 1.53 5.05 2.82 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.05 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.33 0.32 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.10 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.42 0.33 0.30 0.29 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 - - - - - - - - - - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2013 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 1 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,982.3 14,999.1 14,728.2 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,633.5 3,904.4 1,183.0 1,143.6 Current revenues 14,037.9 14,030.6 13,637.4 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,409.2 3,694.5 1,130.5 1,072.7 Tax revenues 13,209.2 13,118.3 12,648.4 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 3,317.0 1,076.5 955.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 2,656.6 2,137.4 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 686.3 199.9 194.1 Social security contributions 5,267.6 5,244.1 5,127.2 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 1,302.5 424.7 418.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 25.6 23.4 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.3 1.9 1.8 Taxes on property 215.2 233.9 254.1 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.8 19.2 29.3 6.1 9.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,856.2 4,876.1 5,027.4 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 1,300.1 438.3 319.3 Taxes on international trade & transactions 100.2 82.5 77.5 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 19.1 19.0 5.3 6.3 Other taxes 17.2 -0.6 1.3 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -25.7 0.3 5.7 Non-tax revenues 828.7 912.3 989.0 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.8 185.7 322.8 242.7 262.2 377.5 54.0 117.5 Capital revenues 65.3 62.5 67.1 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 11.6 10.5 4.0 3.5 Grants 10.4 9.2 32.7 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.4 1.3 11.0 0.2 12.4 Transferred revenues 53.8 51.7 52.7 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 50.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 845.1 938.4 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.7 210.0 188.0 47.9 55.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,546.3 16,125.7 16,286.4 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.2 3,956.8 1,460.9 1,348.6 Current expenditures 6,926.7 6,813.5 6,838.4 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.5 1,692.4 664.4 568.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,882.7 3,727.7 3,616.7 973.9 910.8 884.7 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.4 920.4 909.5 327.2 269.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,443.4 2,373.0 2,238.9 599.1 551.1 633.1 559.1 565.9 526.7 587.2 530.8 537.7 197.1 155.4 Interest payments 526.7 647.9 840.1 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 451.8 221.9 133.3 101.8 Reserves 73.9 64.9 142.6 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 20.8 44.2 20.5 23.3 6.8 42.4 Current transfers 7,818.9 7,687.0 7,671.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.4 1,848.4 683.1 639.8 Subsidies 496.3 502.7 519.5 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.6 205.5 80.3 94.2 60.0 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,533.5 6,384.2 6,343.1 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,562.0 1,600.1 526.3 521.5 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 737.2 741.0 734.2 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.3 204.5 147.7 57.9 41.6 Current transfers abroad 52.0 59.0 74.4 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 12.3 20.4 4.6 16.8 Capital expenditures 1,023.5 915.0 1,031.8 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.6 146.3 259.7 484.2 188.1 269.5 49.5 50.8 Capital transfers 372.1 319.9 319.5 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 50.7 12.6 11.9 Payments to the EU budget 405.1 390.3 425.5 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 162.7 95.9 51.3 77.5 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,564.1 -1,126.6 -1,558.2 -145.2 -258.8 -14.4 -717.5 -516.6 -113.1 -211.0 -656.7 -52.5 -277.9 -204.9 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2013 2014 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 1,093.2 1,187.0 1,133.7 1,174.3 1,290.1 1,204.9 1,238.2 1,275.2 1,201.0 1,604.1 1,231.6 1,196.6 1,205.4 1,285.9 1,337.1 1,281.4 1,175.3 1,166.1 981.5 1,107.7 1,060.8 1,124.5 1,225.5 1,159.5 1,125.9 1,210.9 1,144.3 1,293.5 1,199.0 1,139.9 1,070.4 1,185.2 1,279.0 1,230.3 1,129.6 1,146.4 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 1,064.0 1,142.4 1,067.1 1,196.5 1,135.8 994.4 1,016.8 1,116.3 1,072.3 1,128.4 1,029.8 1,058.3 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 191.2 187.8 190.0 229.1 207.0 199.3 189.3 241.3 185.7 259.4 75.3 191.5 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 418.9 420.1 427.8 469.7 430.5 445.0 428.5 435.7 432.5 434.2 436.8 432.9 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 29.8 19.9 35.7 15.3 6.8 6.6 5.9 11.9 6.0 11.4 23.6 37.5 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 421.6 512.7 408.8 485.0 478.9 329.6 362.4 444.9 439.2 416.0 489.1 383.2 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.1 5.0 7.2 6.9 6.6 5.7 6.7 6.2 5.9 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 -4.5 -5.8 -3.2 -10.2 6.0 5.3 22.2 -25.9 1.4 -1.2 -3.0 5.9 66.2 61.2 63.9 60.6 164.5 96.4 61.9 68.5 77.2 97.0 63.2 145.5 53.6 68.9 206.7 101.9 99.8 88.1 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 20.2 3.8 4.4 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.9 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 9.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 50.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 53.8 59.0 50.2 288.5 27.4 52.1 130.5 96.6 53.8 37.5 40.6 15.3 1,327.9 1,452.2 1,260.2 1,299.3 1,373.0 1,179.8 1,293.4 1,332.4 1,367.6 1,591.3 1,439.9 1,474.7 1,375.7 1,335.2 1,326.2 1,295.4 1,411.7 1,278.2 609.9 727.3 519.2 572.5 503.8 460.8 532.1 532.6 565.1 582.1 624.9 672.0 626.6 622.5 536.0 533.9 516.5 524.1 312.4 294.5 280.7 361.5 295.0 290.5 285.7 285.1 295.5 319.8 299.9 345.5 275.1 287.7 290.8 330.9 299.9 294.5 206.6 197.5 194.0 174.3 198.3 161.0 167.4 173.1 183.1 231.1 176.1 183.8 170.9 183.0 165.1 189.6 207.4 169.5 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 72.2 66.8 78.8 2.3 141.9 135.9 173.9 143.0 73.3 5.7 3.4 53.2 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.8 7.6 7.7 28.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 8.8 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 625.7 637.4 633.4 622.9 731.8 582.5 608.2 617.1 628.6 660.9 697.0 652.4 634.9 590.1 644.3 614.0 717.8 580.2 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 27.9 34.4 48.5 56.6 119.7 65.7 20.2 31.9 33.2 15.1 31.0 18.1 529.0 534.5 525.4 526.0 610.4 503.5 512.1 516.7 513.9 523.9 514.9 524.3 522.8 531.1 543.8 525.1 613.4 502.9 58.5 67.2 57.7 60.3 67.1 53.7 64.8 63.2 63.3 78.8 56.5 57.4 90.7 25.1 55.8 66.8 59.3 56.7 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6 6.0 5.0 1.3 2.0 11.4 7.0 14.0 2.4 41.4 38.1 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.2 95.5 122.6 125.2 236.4 68.6 59.1 60.4 75.1 92.5 101.9 129.6 130.2 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 25.1 41.5 29.6 84.5 1.7 9.4 20.4 14.8 20.3 15.6 22.7 22.8 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 32.5 18.6 19.1 27.3 47.7 81.7 33.3 32.7 33.1 30.0 25.2 21.0 -234.6 -265.2 -126.5 -125.0 -82.9 25.0 -55.2 -57.2 -166.6 12.8 -208.3 -278.1 -170.3 -49.3 10.9 -14.0 -236.3 -112.2 Acronyms Acronyms in the text ABSPP - Asset Backed Securities Purchase Programme, AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS - Bank of Slovenia, BPP - Covered Bond Purchase Programme, EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ESR 2010 -European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010), ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, LTRO - Long-term refinancing operation, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Nonmonetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RČV - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TLTRO - Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations, USA - United States of America, USD - US Dollar, VAT - value added tax, WEF - World Economic Forum, WIIW - The Wienna Institute for International Economic Studies, WTO - World Trade Organization, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steamand air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror October 2014, No. 10, Vol. XX