.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) > d cB fN cu _Q E cu cu LO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 9 / Vol. XVIII / 2012 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Ana T. Selan, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik (WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013); Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SORS Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................12 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................14 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................20 Boxes Main aggregates of the general government sector (ESA 95)................................................................................21 Selected topics WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013.......................................................................................................27 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 1 October 2012. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Economic activity in the euro area declined in the second quarter, and similar movements are also expected to continue in the second half of the year. Growth in exports, which made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter, is projected to slow in the second half of the year in view of the declining forecasts for growth in the volume of global trade. Domestic demand, which has been declining rapidly in the last three quarters, is not yet expected to recover in the second half of the year, given the continued tensions on the labour market, limited access to financial sources and the continuation of fiscal consolidation. A deterioration of prospects is also indicated by the movement of confidence indicators. In September, the ECB announced a new non-standard measure of purchasing government bonds under the condition that countries first apply for support and adopt appropriate adjustments. At least temporarily, this lowered the yields of government bonds of the most exposed Member States. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia are lower than at the beginning of the year and the prospects for the coming months remain uncertain. After falling in the second quarter, production volume in manufacturing dropped further in July and was lower than at the end of last year, particularly in low-technology industries. Exports also shrank somewhat in this period, particularly exports of technologically less intensive and primary goods, while exports of the majority of more technology-intensive goods continued to grow. A decline of export orders in manufacturing indicates a continuation of the unfavourable conditions in the following months. Activity in construction also continues to shrink, being much below last year's levels in all construction segments. Turnover in retail trade dropped again in July due to the ongoing unfavourable movements in the sale of food and non-food products. Moreover, nominal turnover also declined in other market services. The labour market situation keeps deteriorating; this year, wage growth is much slower than last year. The number of employed persons according to the statistical register declined further in July (seasonally adjusted), while the seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate rose to 12.0%. Registered unemployment has been growing steadily in the last few months; 106,071 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of August. Structural imbalances on the labour market continue to increase. The average duration of unemployment is rising, and so does the share of the long-term unemployed. The average gross wage per employee remained unchanged in July (seasonally adjusted). In the first seven months, it recorded much slower y-o-y growth (0.8%) than in the same period last year (2.4%). The slowdown of growth was much more pronounced in market services than in industry, while in public service activities, the average wage was lower y-o-y in this period. The cost competitiveness of the economy continued to improve y-o-y in the second quarter, but Slovenia nonetheless remains among the EU countries with greater losses in competitiveness since the beginning of the crisis. Because of a weaker euro and lower unit labour costs, the cost competitiveness of the economy continued to improve y-o-y in the second quarter, more notably than in most other countries in the euro area and the EU. The relative improvement in Slovenia's position resulted from lower compensation of employees per employee. In light of a renewed deterioration of cost competitiveness in manufacturing, the relatively more favourable movements in the second quarter were due to public services. However, despite the relative improvement, real unit labour costs in Slovenia still exceed the 2007 level by 8.8% (in the EU, by 3.0%). Consumer prices rose by 1.1% in September, being up 3.3% y-o-y. In addition to the seasonal price rises in clothing and footwear, their monthly growth reflected the abolition of subsidies on school meals, while the y-o-y price growth remains marked by food and energy price movements. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.7%, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. The lending activity of banks and bank sources decline further and the quality of bank assets continues to deteriorate. The volume of bank loans contracted in August, largely due to further corporate and NFI deleveraging. In the first eight months, the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors shrank by nearly EUR 300 m, or by a factor of 1.6 more than in the same period last year. Access to foreign sources of finance remains highly limited and banks continue to repay foreign loans. With the quality of bank assets deteriorating further, the volume of domestic sources of funding for the Slovenian banking system is also falling rapidly. The volume of banks' bad claims rose to EUR 6.5 bn by the end of July, reaching 13.0% of the total exposure of banks. Particularly disturbing is the increase in bad claims in manufacturing, as well as in trade and real estate, meaning that besides in construction and financial intermediation, the quality of bank assets is also increasingly deteriorating in other activities. According to the most recent SORS data, the general government deficit in 2011 is estimated at 6.4% of GDP, the same figure as in the previous release, and is by 0.7 p.p. of GDP higher than in 2010. On account of specific transactions (such as equity injections into NLB d.d. and some state-owned companies, the assumption of liabilities of the Slovenian Railways and the debt of the public company building hydroelectric power plants on the Sava river, and payments of guarantees due), the general government deficit widened by EUR 459 m or 1.3% of GDP last year. General government revenue (EUR 16.0 bn) rose by 1.2% y-o-y in nominal terms and expenditure (EUR 18.4 bn) by 2.5%. General government debt also expanded substantially last year (from 38.6% of GDP to 46.9%). In relative terms, it was still among the lowest in the EU, but its increase in the last three years was one of the largest in the euro area. This year's WEF Global Competitiveness Report shows, similar to the IMD survey, that Slovenia has slipped significantly during the crisis (by 12 ranks). It deteriorated its ranking in all three categories of competitiveness, particularly in the category of efficiency enhancers. Managers are again highly dissatisfied particularly with public institutions and the burden of government regulation, the efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes and wastefulness of government spending. Furthermore, Slovenia is also ranked low in terms of private institutions, largely on account of the low efficacy of corporate boards and a low degree of protection of minority shareholders' interests. Certain indicators of the macroeconomic environment have also deteriorated substantially in the last year, mainly in the area of public finances, while Slovenia remains among more competitive countries regarding infrastructure, health and primary education. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment Economic activity in the euro area declined in the second quarter, largely on account of the lowering of domestic demand. In Q2, all components of domestic demand made a negative contribution to the decline of GDP in the euro area (-0.5% y-o-y),1 while the contribution of net exports was positive (1.6 p.p.). The prospects for the second half of the year remain poor, as export growth will ease in line with the lower forecasts for world trade growth in the second half of the year while domestic demand will not yet pick up because of continued tensions on the labour market,2 limited access to sources of finance and further fiscal consolidation measures. A deterioration of prospects is also indicated by the movement of various confidence indicators (ESI, PMI). Figure 1: Structure of GDP growth in the euro area I Gross fixed capital formation I Chang. in inventories&valuables ■ Imports 4 3 2 1 -3 -4 -5 Government Households Exports -GDP (right axis) C3 C3 C3 Source: Eurostat. The ECB's announcement of a new non-standard measure of buying government bonds lowered the required yields in the most exposed euro area countries in September. At the beginning of September, the ECB took a decision on a new programme of buying government bonds on the secondary market, Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs), which will substitute the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). Under the latter, the ECB has purchased around EUR 145 bn in bonds in the last year.3 A necessary condition for the implementation of the new programme is strict conditionality4 attached to an appropriate EFSF/ESM programme. Countries will have to make a 1 Change in inventories (-1.1 p.p.); gross fixed capital formation (-0.6 p.p.); government consumption (0.0 p.p.) 2 In August the unemployment rate climbed to 11.3%, 1.2 p.p. higher than in the same month last year. 3 The total current exposure of the ECB within the Security Markets Programme amounts to EUR 209 bn. 4 In the form of a full EFSF/ESM macroeconomic adjustment programme or a precautionary programmes within the framework of EFSF/ESF. formal request for assistance and agree to appropriate macroeconomic adjustments. The transactions will have a maturity of one to three years. After the announcement of the new mechanism, the required yields in the most exposed euro area countries (particularly Ireland) have declined5 by 30 to 80 basis points since the beginning of the month, while the yields in countries with the highest ratings have remained at a similar level as in the previous month. Figure 2: Yields on ten-year government bonds - Slovenia - Portugal ■ Austria -Italy ■ Ireland - Spain Germany E14 ;i0 ^ 8 ~f.......................f Source: Bloomberg. Interbank interest rates in the euro area dropped for the eleventh consecutive month. The value of the three-month EURIBOR was at 0.246% in September, 9 b.p. less than in August and 129 b.p. less than a year earlier. The values of the three-month US dollar and Swiss franc LIBOR dropped as well (to 0.392% and 0.046%, respectively). The key interest rates of main central banks were left unchanged in September (ECB: 0.75%, Fed: 0.0%, BoE 0.5%). The euro appreciated against all main global currencies in September. The value of the euro rose by 3.7% against the US dollar, to USD 1.286 per 1 euro, which is the highest figure in the last five months. The euro also gained value against the Japanese yen (by 3.0%, to JPY 100.49 to EUR 1), the British pound sterling (by 1.2%, to GDP 0.798 to EUR 1) and the Swiss franc (by 0.6%, to CHF 1.209 to EUR 1). In September, oil prices remained unchanged, while non-energy prices declined. The average Brent oil price totalled USD 113.29 per barrel in September, the same as a month 5 The yields of Portugal bonds had also dropped sharply after the announcement of the ECB's measure (by 87 b.p.), then increased again to the level of the beginning of September in the second half of the month. In the second half of the month, bond yields of the other most exposed countries increased as well, but remained much lower than at the beginning of the month. 16 12 6 4 2 0 earlier, while the price in euros dropped by 2.7% (to EUR 88.0 per barrel). The rising trend in non-energy commodity prices came to a halt in August, as prices dropped by 2.0%. Metal prices fell significantly again (-5.8%) and food price growth eased markedly (0.5%). According to preliminary data, non-energy commodity prices continued to drop in September. Figure 3: Movements of the price of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD/EUR exchange rate (right axis) 18 1.6 1.2 ^ 1.0 ^ "Source: ecb'^eia; calcula^^ns by IMAI^ Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia are lower than at the beginning of the year, and the prospects also remain uncertain for the coming months. Production volume in manufacturing dropped further in July, being lower than at the end of 2011, particularly in low-technology industries. Exports also shrank somewhat in the first seven months, especially exports of technologically less intensive and primary goods, while exports of the majority of more technology-intensive goods continued to grow. A decline in export orders in manufacturing shows that the unfavourable conditions will continue in the coming months. Activity in construction is also shrinking further, being much below last year's level in all construction segments. Turnover in retail trade dropped in July due to the ongoing unfavourable movements in the sale of food and non-food products, and was somewhat higher only in the sale of automotive fuels. In the first seven months, growth in merchandise exports slowed, partly as a consequence of lower foreign demand, but also due to the structure of exports, given that exports of less technology-intensive goods dropped in particular. Real merchandise exports shrank in July (seasonally adjusted), according to our estimate, and were also down y-o-y in Figure 4: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports -Industrial production in manufacturing -----Value of construction put in place ----Turnover in retail trade 110 100 90 80 cu !?70 cu > ro 60 . 50 40 30 i i i i i i i i i i 111:11: : /' Y' "i" - " ......i........: ■ .....! ....... f.......f" ■ ■ "t---""- ........ 1 : 1 1 ........4.......p- ......t.......}....... 1 1 1 ; -r......7.......5.......1 ■ f t 1 j !.......i i i i i E E i i o ^ ^ Source: SORS; calculations by IM AD. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2011 VII 12/ VI 12 VII 12/ VII 11 I-VII 12/ I-VII 11 Exports1 11.7 -0.8 1.2 2.1 -goods 13.3 -4.4 0.5 1.5 -services 4.8 15.4 0.0 4.8 Imports1 11.3 -1.3 0.6 -0.1 -goods 12.9 -6.9 3.9 0.1 -services 2.0 36.0 2.9 -1.3 Industrial production 2.1 -1.72 1.93 0.63 -manufacturing 2.0 -2.22 0.23 -0.43 Construction -value of construction put in place -25.6 -0.82 -18.33 -17.33 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -1.02 -1.73 0.23 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.8 -2.32 -3.43 -1.53 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, adjusted data. IMAD. 2seasonally adjusted, 3working- -day the first seven months.6 In nominal terms, exports were still up y-o-y in this period (0.8%), but they recorded much slower growth than in the same period last year (16.1%). The seasonally adjusted data also indicate a moderation in the recovery of total exports, which we estimate is mainly due to lower foreign demand. At the same time, it is also related to the structure of merchandise exports, given the substantial differences in export movements according to the technology-intensity of goods. Exports of more high-technology goods, i.e. chemicals (in particular pharmaceuticals) and machinery (especially power 6 The estimate of real exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market. Nominal data on the structure of merchandise exports and imports are available for the first six months of this year. 1.4 20 generating machinery and equipment and machinery specialised for particular industries)7 continue to increase this year. Among more high-technology goods, exports of vehicles are otherwise dropping further doe to the expiration of incentives for new vehicle purchases in France, where Slovenia sells most cars. The slower growth in total merchandise exports is thus mainly attributable to a decline in exports of less technology-intensive goods8 and primary commodities, mainly electricity. In previous years, the latter made a substantial contribution to the total export growth.9 Figure 5: Exports by SITC groups -Chemicals (5) -Machinery and equipment excl. road vehicles (7 excl. 78) -- Road vehicles (78) — Manufactures classified by material (6) -- Miscellaneous manufactured articles (8&9) -Primary commodities (0-4) 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 :iy1,000 900 fO 800 OJ 700 !E 600 500 400 300 a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 6: Imports by end-use product -Imports of investment goods -Imports of consumer goods -Imports of intermediate goods -----Investment in machinery and equipment -----Household consumption (right axis) Production in manufacturing (right axis) 90 ^ 80 a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 95 90 75 7 Goods in SITC sections 5 and 7, excluding road vehicles (78). 8 Manufactures classified by material and miscellaneous manufactured articles (i.e. goods according to SITC sections 6, 8 and 9). 9 For more on this see SEM, April 2012, p. 31-33 (Merchandise exports in 2008-2011). With slower growth in exports and a decline in domestic consumption, merchandise imports dropped y-o-y in the first seven months. Having declined substantially in the second quarter, real merchandise imports shrank further in July (seasonally adjusted), according to our estimate.10 Nominal data show that imports of investment goods are declining this year, which is, according to our estimate, a result of lower investment in machinery and equipment, which last year had still been growing. Imports of consumer goods are also shrinking. Their decline was especially pronounced in the second quarter due to a drop in household consumption. Imports of intermediate goods, accounting for nearly two thirds of total goods imports, also shrank in the second quarter after Q1 growth, in line with the movements of production in the manufacturing sector. Services exports continue to grow in nominal terms this year, with monthly fluctuations, while imports have been more or less unchanged since the beginning of 2010 (seasonally adjusted).11 In the first seven months, services exports were fairly volatile, but they maintained their rising trend. With stagnant exports of travel and weak growth in transport services, this was mainly attributable to other services,12 while exports of other business services are declining this year. Imports of services, having declined at the end of last year and the beginning of 2012 particularly on account of lower imports of travel, have expanded somewhat in recent months due to modest export growth in all services Figure 7:Trade in services - nominal -Exports of services -Imports of services 450 ■ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 10 The estimate of real imports is based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. Nominal data on the structure of merchandise imports are available for the first six months of this year. 11 According to the balance of payments statistics. '2When we adjusted data for seasonal effects, we included communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. All these combined account for just over a tenth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. 105 100 70 85 60 80 50 groups. In the first seven months, exports of travel were up 4.8% y-o-y according to original data, while imports were down 1.3%. After the decline in the second quarter, production volume in manufacturing dropped further in July. This was a result of lower production in low-technology industries, where production volume has dropped most notably since the beginning of the year. In medium-low-technology industries, production remained unchanged in July, after declining in the preceding two months, while production in technologically more intensive industries was up. In the first seven months, production volume in manufacturing remained at the same level as a year earlier (-0.4%, working-day adjusted). It dropped most notably in some more export-oriented industries that were recovering faster and had already managed to reach the levels of 2008 (such as the leather industry, the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment, the manufacture of transport vehicles) and the furniture industry. Production volume contracted especially in predominantly export-oriented production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, where the indicator of export orders has deteriorated strongly since the beginning of the year, according to business trends data. Since mid-2011, export orders, which are an indicator of foreign demand, have also been increasingly dropping in the manufacture of electrical appliances and leather industry. Figure 8: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing by sub-industries Figure 9: Business trends in manufacturing IJan-Jul 2012/Jan-Jul 2011 (left axis) ■ Jan-Jul 2012 (right axis) 140 120^5 100 80 60 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: data for the pharmaceutical industry -IMAD's estimate. The prospects for manufacturing for the coming months remain unfavourable. The number of enterprises reporting a decline in export and total orders rose further at the beginning of the second half of the year and their expectations about exports and total demand deteriorated. The poorer prospects for demand were reflected in a more pessimistic attitude regarding production. In September, enterprises surveyed no longer - Expected employment Export orders Expected exports - Total orders - Expected total demand Is 0 -40 -100 Source: SORS. expected to see production growth in the next three months, and their expectations regarding employment remained negative, as most of them expected to cut jobs in this period. Construction activity remains low. The value of construction output dropped somewhat in July (-0.8%, seasonally adjusted) and was considerably lower than in the previous July (-17.3%). After rising in the first quarter, the construction of buildings dropped significantly again. The value of civil-engineering works also continued to fall. The prospects for the construction sector remain uncertain. The value of new contracts in construction has otherwise increased somewhat since the beginning of the year, but remains lower y-o-y (by 16.7% in the first seven months; the stock of contracts by 6.2% in July). Within the construction sector, the smallest declines were recorded Figure 10: Value of construction put in place 120 If 20 10 0 äE -10 cu J3 -20 -30 -40 -50 <5 -60 (u -70 - Manufacturing - Service activ. Consumers ■ . . . .i : JJ : iJ 'A ' 1 1 1 1 1 : : 1 1 i i 1 1 1 ^ i i ■ ■ i i i \ ■ ! yv / /-------~ " \\\ V* ' *1 .....-.......-.......f...... ......4.......^ .......i......4.......4........1.......4—f...... .....i.......i.......i......j, .......i....... I I i = ^ I .....4.......i.......fr......<.......^ ■■ i J^ i : : : .......r.......f......"i.......f............. i i i i ' i i V i i i i i i ^.......--—1.......7.......^^ ....... i i i i i i Labour market The labour market situation continues to deteriorate. Employment according to the statistical register18 dropped further in July (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted) and was also down y-o-y (-1.6%). In the first seven months as a whole, the relatively largest y-o-y decline in employment was recorded in construction (-12.0%). After several months of stagnation, the registered unemployment rate rose somewhat in July (by 0.1 p.p. to 12.0%, seasonally adjusted). Figure 15: Movements on the labour market -Employed according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) 860 £3 140 120 100 80 60 o ^ o ^ Source: SORS. Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Registered unemployment has been growing steadily in the last few months, seasonally adjusted. It rose somewhat in August (0.1%, seasonally adjusted), while it was down 0.9% y-o-y. Overall 106,071 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of August. In August, 6,488 persons registered anew, 2.302 fewer than in July. Among the newly registered, the number of those who had lost work in education because of the expiration of their Table 2: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in '000 Change in Number 2011 VII 11 VI 12 VII 12 11/10 VII 12/ VI 12 VII 12/ VII 11 I-VII 12/ I-VII 11 Manufacturing 184.8 183.8 183.8 182.9 -3,725 -865 -897 -161 Construction 67.8 68.4 61.4 60.5 -10,709 -843 -7,823 -8,325 Market services 342.2 343.0 339.5 338.2 -3,400 -1,287 -4,789 -2,705 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 109.7 109.8 108.3 107.7 -2,078 -624 -2,045 -1,460 Public services 170.2 169.6 172.6 171.1 1,406 -1,467 1,472 2,323 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.4 51.4 51.2 50.8 -661 -330 -595 -399 Education 64.7 63.9 65.7 64.6 1,145 -1,111 755 1,176 Human health and social work activities 54.1 54.3 55.7 55.6 922 -26 1,312 1,546 Other 59.0 59.3 58.4 57.7 5,355 -690 -1,579 -2,094 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 7 Data available since March 1996. 8 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 40 fixed-term contracts dropped in particular in August, compared with the preceding month; the number of persons seeking new jobs because of the bankruptcy of their companies was also somewhat lower. The total outflow from the unemployment register totalled 7,313 persons, 211 fewer than in July. Figure 16: Average duration of unemployment and the share of long-term unemployed -Average duration of unemployment in days (left axis) Tables: Labour market indicators -Share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment (right axis) 75^ I--------------------- 55 50 45 „ c 40Ü JD 35 1= C D 30 IŠ C 25 • 15 10 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. Structural imbalances on the labour market are also increasing. The deterioration of structural problems on the labour market shows in a longer average duration of unemployment, which was 708 days in August (55 more than in August last year), and the persistently high share of long-term unemployment in total unemployment (51.1% in August, 4.8 p.p. more y-o-y). in % 2011 VII 12/ VI 12 VII 12/ VII 11 I-VII 12/ I-VII 11 Labour force -0.1 -0.4 -1.5 -1.3 Persons in formal employment -1.3 -0.6 -1.7 -1.3 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.4 -0.6 -1.5 -1.2 Registered unemployed 10.1 1.2 -0.6 -1.2 Average nominal gross wage 2.0 0.0' -0.1 0.8 - private sector 2.6 0.3' 1.6 1.1 - public sector 1.0 -0.2' -2.9 0.2 -of which general government 0.0 -0.3' -3.7 -1.3 2011 VII 11 VI 12 VII 12 Rate of registered unemployment, in %, seasonally adjusted 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.0 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,524.65 1.500.16 1.501.40 1.498.05 Private sector (in EUR) 1,388.65 1.351.21 1.366.71 1.373.47 Public sector (in EUR) 1,778.45 1.777.67 1.747.89 1.725.75 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,801.27 1.792.67 1.752.71 1.726.81 Sources: ESS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted. The average gross wage per employee remained unchanged in July (seasonally adjusted). In the first seven months, it recorded much slower y-o-y growth (0.8%) than in the same period last year (2.4%). In July, the gross wages in the public19 and government sectors declined further,20 while the gross wage in the private sector rose (seasonally adjusted), although only so much as it dropped in June. Given the stagnation in the public sector (and the decline in the general government sector), the y-o-y gross wage increase in the first seven months as a whole stemmed Table 4: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2011 VII 2012 2011/ 2010 VII 12/ VI 12 VII 12/ VII 11 I-VII 12/ I-VII 11 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,451.57 1,438.30 2.6 0.3 1.1 1.5 Industry (B-E) 1,408.91 1,418.31 3.6 0.5 4.2 2.4 - of which manufacturing 1,362.79 1,374.29 3.9 1.1 4.3 3.2 Construction 1,235.95 1,194.08 2.0 0.7 -1.4 -1.5 Traditional services (G-I) 1,349.67 1,331.93 2.7 -0.2 -1.3 1.1 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,718.65 1,681.39 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,750.03 1,677.50 0.0 -1.5 -3.6 -1.3 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,784.27 1,730.44 0.3 -0.5 -3.4 -1.2 - Education 1,733.58 1,620.61 0.2 -2.9 -4.8 -1.7 - Human health and social work activities 1,735.19 1,694.82 -0.7 -0.9 -2.2 -0.9 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 19 Starting June 2011, we comment on data on wages in the private sector and the public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government sector), and only exceptionally on wages in private and public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors. 20 In line with the ZUJF, June's wages in the general government sector dropped by 3% (seasonally adjusted): they were otherwise reduced by t same time, they increased somewhat due to the disbursement of the remaining two quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities. «, but at the only from the private sector. However, in the private sector growth also continues to slow.21 In the first seven months as a whole, it was much lower (1.1%) than in the same period last year (3.0%). The slowdown varied across activities. It was much more pronounced in market services, where amid a decline in construction, wage growth had already turned negative in several activities. The slowdown in industry was less notable. In public service activities, where wages had been down y-o-y in all activities already before June's enforcement of the ZUJF, the decline only deepened further in June and July. Figure 17: Growth in the gross wage per employee 4 Figure 18: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 8 Traditional market services (G-I) Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Industry (B-E) Prices Consumer prices increased by 1.1% in September.22 The y-o-y price growth in September totalled 3.3% and remained marked by food and energy price rises, which had contributed around 2.0 p.p. to inflation in the first nine months (2.9%). According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.7%. In the first eight months, price dynamics were marked particularly by higher energy and food prices. Price growth was at 1.8% in the first eight months (compared with 1.0% in the same period last year). The largest contribution to growth came from prices of food (0.5 p.p.) and energy, which rose by 3.1% and 8.0%, respectively. Their contribution (1.1 p.p.) increased further relative to the same period last year (by 0.5 p.p.), mainly due to higher commodity prices on world markets. In the first eight months, inflation was also characterised by seasonal movements, besides energy 21 Since mid-2010. Private sector wages had otherwise already been adjusted to the crisis at the end of 2008, and the adjustment also continued in 2009. This trend was temporarily interrupted by the increase in the minimum wage in 2010. 22 Detailed data on September's inflation will be released later. They will be commented upon in the next SEM. -Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation -Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation ji ji Source:Eurostat. prices. Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices dropped around 14% (-1.2 p.p.), while seasonal price rises in holiday packages contributed around 0.7 p.p. to growth. In view of weak economic activity, core inflation remains low, around 1.2%. Figure 19: Structure of y-o-y inflation ji Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Growth in domestic producer prices of manufactured goods on both the domestic and foreign markets remains moderate. On the domestic market, prices of manufactured goods remained nearly unchanged in August (0.1%), while having dropped somewhat on foreign markets (-0.3%). The y-o-y growth of these prices on the domestic market remains moderate and maintains the same level as in the preceding two months (0.8%). It is marked particularly by higher prices of food (2.3%) and the continued substantial decline of prices in the manufacture of metals 4 3 3 2 0 Table5: Breakdown of the HICP into sub-groups - August 2012 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 2.2 100.0 2.2 1.2 100.0 1.2 Goods 1.9 66.0 1.3 0.3 58.5 0.2 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 3.0 15.4 0.5 1.4 11.9 0.2 Non-processed food 6.4 7.3 0.5 1.7 7.2 0.1 Non-energy industrial goods -3.6 28.8 -1.0 -2.8 28.5 -0.8 Durables -1.4 10.6 -0.1 -0.4 9.0 0.0 Non-durables 1.5 8.8 0.1 1.0 8.2 0.1 Semi-durables -10.2 9.4 -1.0 -6.6 11.2 -0.7 Energy 8.7 14.5 1.3 6.6 11.0 0.7 Electricity for households 4.2 2.7 0.1 5.4 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 4.9 1.1 0.1 4.7 1.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 8.7 1.7 0.1 6.4 0.9 0.1 Solid fuels -2.8 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 District heating 10.9 0.9 0.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 12.1 7.2 0.9 8.6 4.9 0.4 Services 2.8 34.0 1.0 2.0 41.5 0.8 Services - dwellings 0.1 3.0 0.0 1.7 10.1 0.2 Services - transport 3.3 5.9 0.2 4.4 6.5 0.3 Services - communications -0.9 3.5 0.0 -2.3 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 4.9 13.5 0.7 2.6 14.5 0.4 Services - other services 2.1 8.1 0.2 1.1 7.3 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.5 78.2 0.4 0.2 81.8 0.2 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification and metal products (-4.8%). Domestic producer prices on foreign markets (where y-o-y growth eased to 0.1%) are characterised by similar movements. Moderate dynamics are also typical for prices of manufactured goods in the Figure 20: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic) -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabric. metal prod.; exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) ---Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products -PPI (foreign) 20 16 12 8 ? 4 0 ^^ -4 -12 -16 euro area, which is reflected in the movement of import prices in Slovenia. In most manufacturing activities, their y-o-y growth (1.1%) remains modest, notwithstanding August's increase (by 1.0 p.p., mainly due to energy price rises). Food prices were up 4.8% in this period, while prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products were down 5.3%. Much as in the second quarter, the price competitiveness of the economy improved in July again due to the weaker euro, albeit less than in most other euro area countries. Owing to the depreciation of the euro, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP dropped in July, monthly (-0.6%) and y-o-y (-1.6%). Compared with July 2011, the euro mainly lost value against the main currencies outside the EU; compared with June this year, it also depreciated against EU currencies. Relative23 prices remained unchanged in July, being up only marginally y-o-y. The gain in price competitiveness in the first seven months was again mainly due to the lower exchange rate of the euro. In view of the geographical structure of Slovenia's external trade, this year's improvement was among the smallest in the euro area. Because Slovenia has a relatively larger share of trade with the euro area, the effects of the decline of the euro on its price competitiveness were relatively smaller. Source: SORS. 23 Slovenian prices in comparison with prices in its trading partners. Figure 21: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members deflated by HICP, in the first seven months of 2012 ■ NEER IHICP »REER HICP V ■? -3 ■ I III.J TIP Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. As a result of the weaker euro and lower unit labour costs, the cost competitiveness of the economy continued to improve y-o-y in the second quarter, more notably than in most other countries in the euro and the EU. The accelerated decline of the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative unit labour costs in the second quarter (-2.7%, y-o-y24) resulted from a decline in the exchange rate of the euro and relative unit labour costs. After last year's pronounced decline25, real unit labour costs also dropped somewhat (-0.2%) in the first two quarters of this year, while they increased on average in the euro area and the EU. The relative improvement of Slovenia's position in 2011 was attributable to a larger increase in Table 6: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness Figure 22: Real effective exchange rate deflated by ULC ^HREER ULC -Relative ULC* -----NEER 8 a a a a a Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: *q2 2012 is IMAD's estimate. labour productivity than, on average, in the euro area and the EU, while in the first six months of this year, it was a consequence of a reduction of the compensation of employees per employee. In the euro area and the EU, labour productivity dropped much less, on average, than in Slovenia in the second quarter, due to a smaller decline in economic activity, though with a further growth in the compensation of employees. Despite the relatively more favourable movements in 2011 and in the first half of 2012, Slovenia remains in the group of euro area and EU countries with the greatest losses of cost competitiveness during the crisis.26 With a renewed loss in cost competitiveness in manufacturing, in the second quarter, the relatively more Annual change, in % 2010 2011 q3 11 q4 11 q1 12 q2 12 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -2.1 -0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 Real, deflator HICP -1.8 -1.0 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 Real, deflator ULC -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -1.4 -2.7 Unit labour costs, economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 0.4 -0.6 -1.4 1.8 0.7 0.8 Compensation of employees per employee, nominal 3.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 1.6 -1.5 Labour productivity, real 3.5 2.2 2.5 -1.3 0.8 -2.3 Real unit labour costs 1.5 -1.6 -2.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Labour productivity, nominal 2.3 3.2 3.4 0.7 1.7 -1.3 Source: SORS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 against 36 trading partners, according to ECB. 24 IMAD's estimate, as the ECB's data for the second quarter are not yet available. 25 After the annual revision of SORS data from national accounts from the end of August, the decline in real unit labour costs totalled 1.6%; before the revision, 0.4%. The differences mainly resulted from higher growth in labour productivity, and in part also from lower growth in the compensation of employees per employee. 26 In the first half of 2012, Slovenia was fourth among EU Member States (23 Member States for which data for the first half of 2012 were available) in terms of real growth in unit labour costs relative to the pre-crisis year 2007 (8.8%), behind Bulgaria, Finland and the Netherlands; and third in terms of growth in the real effective exchange rate deflated by the ULC (5%), behind Slovakia and Luxembourg (data for the first quarter of this year relative to the 2007 average). 2 0 -6 Figure 23: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and EU average ^^ RULC Slovenia ^^ RULC EU -Productivity Slovenia -Productivity EU -----Compensation per empl. Slovenia 9 -----Compensation per empl. EU _ ä 0 O O O O Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: Real growth in productivity and compensation, GDP deflator. Figure 24: Real unit labour costs in EU countries in the first half of 201227 6 5 4 3 2 1 J? ^ -1 O 1^-2 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 , ■ Labour productivity, real , , ■ »Compensation per employee, real ' ..... »RULC ..... Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. favourable movements in the economy were impacted by public services. As a result of the deterioration in manufacturing, the cost competitiveness of basic activities stagnated at the level of Q2 2011, while the cost competitiveness of market services deteriorated particularly owing to lower cost competitiveness in information and communication, as well as in professional, scientific and other business activities. Manufacturing activities, which this year stood out among the basic activities regarding the deterioration of cost competitiveness due to a decline in productivity amid an increase in wages, had seen an outstanding improvement last year, similar to the construction sector.28 In public services, real unit labour costs dropped in the second quarter, as a result of June's reduction of wages with the enforcement of the ZUJF. Figure 25: Cost competitiveness by sector of the Slovenian economy -Basic activities (A-F) I Total RULC ■ Manufacturing (C) -----Construction (F) -Market services (G-N)+(R-T) .....Public services (O-Q) 20 a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus again in July (EUR 53.7 m), and in the first seven months of this year, EUR 307.9 m (EUR 154.7 m in the same period last year). The y-o-y improvement in the balance of current transactions was, owing to a further shrinkage of domestic demand and, consequently, imports, due to a higher surplus in external trade. Similar to the first half of this year, the trade balance recorded a surplus in July, which was up y-o-y due to a wider surplus in trade in merchandise and services. The surplus in merchandise trade was largely a result of stronger exports to non-EU countries, while exports to the EU declined. In the first seven months, the trade balance ran a deficit of EUR 256.1 m, or EUR 170.2 m less than in the same period last year. July's surplus in trade in services was again higher y-o-y, largely on account of a wider surplus in trade in travel and transport services. The deficit in the group of all other services remained unchanged y-o-y. In the first seven months, the surplus in services trade totalled EUR 950.2 m, compared with EUR 795.8 m in the same period last year. 7 Data for the first half of 2012 are available for 23 EU Member States. 28 With the annual revision of SORS data from the national accounts, real growth in value added in construction in 2011 was corrected by 10 p.p., from a 20.3% decline to a 10.3% decline. The data prior to the annual revision therefore showed a pronounced loss in cost competitiveness in 2011, compared with the revised data, which indicate a significant improvement. 6 3 3 -9 Table 7: Balance of payments I-VII 12, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - VII 11 Current account 16.667.8 16.359.8 307.9 154.7 - Trade balance (FOB) 12.629.9 12.886.1 -256.1 -426.3 - Services 2.828.2 1.877.9 950.2 795.8 - Income 418.0 810.3 -392.3 -322.2 Current transfers 791.7 785.6 6.1 107.4 Capital and financial account 1.596.1 -1.723.9 -127.8 -140.5 - Capital account 164.8 -132.2 32.6 -19.0 - Capital transfers 163.7 -131.4 32.3 -16.9 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.1 -0.8 0.3 -2.1 - Financial account 1.431.3 -1.591.7 -160.4 -121.4 - Direct investment 232.1 102.6 334.6 296.2 - Portfolio investment -1.630.7 291.6 -1.339.1 2.364.7 - Financial derivates -55.4 23.8 -31.6 -98.1 - Other investment 2.885.4 -2.001.5 883.9 -2.693.1 - Assets 67.2 -1.445.5 -1.378.2 -2.181.6 - Liabilities 2.818.2 -556.1 2.262.1 -511.5 - Reserve assets 0.0 -8.2 -8.2 8.8 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -180.1 -180.1 -14.2 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. Figure 26: Components of the current account balance ^■Merchandise trade Services trade Factor incomes ^^Current transfers -Current account Figure 27: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument ^^ Direct investment ^^ Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment — Net financial flow 2,000 ource: BS. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes was down y-o-y in July, while the balance of current transfers deteriorated. The y-o-y narrowing of the deficit in factor incomes was mainly due to a lower net outflow of income from equity capital of direct investment. Net income from portfolio investment was lower as well, due to diminishing returns. Total net payments of interest on external debt were somewhat lower than a year earlier. In the first seven months, they totalled EUR 254.5 m, being up EUR 30.4 m y-o-y. The deficit in factor incomes was EUR 392.3 m in the first seven months (EUR 322.2 m in the same period last year). The balance of current transfers deteriorated in July. In the first seven months, the surplus in government -1,500 -2,000 Source: BS; calculations by IM AD. transfers was, despite the increased absorption of EU funds, down y-o-y due to higher payments of contributions and taxes abroad. Other transfers and insurances of the private sector were up as well. The surplus in the balance of current transfers was therefore lower (EUR 6.1 m) than in the same period last year (EUR 107.4 m). Net capital flows remain weak due to the difficult access to foreign sources of finance. External financial transactions29 recorded a net inflow again (EUR 23.7 m) in July, and a 29 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. net outflow of EUR 152.2 m in the first seven months (EUR 130.2 m in the same period last year). Portfolio investment saw a net outflow of EUR 616.8 m in July, mainly due to the payment of part of the debt from bonds. Domestic commercial banks repaid matured bonds in March (EUR 292.6 m) and July in particular (EUR 714.8 m). Other investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 576.8 m in July, primarily owing to the increase in the BS's liabilities to the Eurosystem. In view of the difficult access to international financial markets, the BS borrowed EUR 3.0 bn from the Eurosystem in the first seven months. These funds were used by commercial banks to repay long-term loans and liabilities to foreign portfolio investors, and to offset the withdrawal of non-residents' deposits. In the first seven months, commercial banks reduced external liabilities by EUR 2.5 bn. Direct investment saw a net inflow EUR 65.1 m in July. Equity capital flows remained weak; loans between affiliates represented the largest part of inward and outward direct investment, much as in the first half of the year. In the first seven months, the net inflow from direct investment reached EUR 334.6 m, compared with EUR 296.2 m in the same period last year. Financial markets In August, the lending activity of Slovenian banks declined further, albeit less than in previous months. Loan volume shrank by EUR 52.2 m, largely due to further corporate and NFI deleveraging, while households continued to borrow in August. In the first eight months, the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined by nearly EUR 300 m, or by a factor of 1.6 more than in the same period last year. Banks continue to repay foreign debts. The volume of domestic sources of funding for the Slovenian banking system is also declining rapidly, in view of the tightened public finance situation and unfavourable labour market conditions. After several months of decline, the volume of household loans rose in August, but it was down substantially y-o-y in the first eight months. The increase (EUR 4.6 m) was modest and mainly resulted from higher loans for other purposes (EUR 18.1 m). Household borrowing in the Figure 28: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans Households Enterprises and NFI^ Government-Total ji Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 11 31. VIII 12 31. VIII 12/ 31. VII 12 31. VIII 12/ 31. XII 11 31. VIII 12/ 31. VIII 11 Loans total 32,733.86 32,441.10 -0.2 -0.9 -2.9 Enterprises and NFI 22,065.54 21,557.49 -0.3 -2.3 -5.3 Government 1,214.88 1,537.99 0.0 26.6 34.7 Households 9,453.45 9,345.62 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 Consumer credits 2,723.04 2,569.98 -0.7 -5.6 -7.1 Lending for house purchase 5,163.55 5,253.38 0.1 1.7 2.1 Other lending 1,566.85 1,522.26 1.2 -2.9 -3.6 Bank deposits total 15,097.17 15,082.10 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 Overnight deposits 6,440.82 6,609.98 -0.6 2.6 2.8 Short-term deposits 4,127.66 3,931.96 -1.9 -4.7 -6.7 Long-term deposits 4,521.12 4,531.45 -0.5 0.2 1.6 Deposits redeemable at notice 7.57 8.72 17.7 15.1 21.8 Mutual funds 1,810.64 1,828.25 -0.8 1.0 -4.5 Government bank deposits, total 2,848.94 2,148.72 -3.5 -24.6 -28.8 Overnight deposits 139.72 129.94 -12.1 -7.0 501.4 Short-term deposits 694.47 438.05 -1.1 -36.9 -56.7 Long-term deposits 2,013.33 1,580.00 -3.3 -21.5 -20.3 Deposits redeemable at notice 1.42 0.74 -69.1 -48.0 -86.8 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. form of housing loans continues to slow. Housing loans recorded the lowest monthly growth (EUR 5 m) this year. In the first eight months as a whole, their volume increased only by EUR 90 m, which is less than 30% of the amount in the same period last year. The total volume of household loans declined by EUR 107.8 m, in contrast to the comparable period last year, when it had increased by EUR 207.7 m. In the first eight months, the volume of corporate and NFI loans declined much more than in the same period last year. August's decline was otherwise somewhat smaller than in previous months (EUR 56.8 m), but in the first eight months as a whole, the volume of corporate and NFI loans declined by over EUR 500 m, by twice as much as in the same period last year. Foreign sources of debt financing for Slovenian enterprises and NFIs remain modest. These recorded net borrowing abroad in July, but the net flows were meagre (EUR 3.3 m). The net inflows of foreign loans resulted from longer-term net borrowing (EUR 7.7 m), while the repayments of long-term loans and the volume of new long-term borrowing were modest. Enterprises and NFIs net repaid EUR 80.9 m in foreign loans in the first seven months, while in the comparable period last year they had net borrowed EUR 244.7 m. The differences between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans remained around 230 b.p. The access of banks to foreign sources of finance remains tight. In July, banks increased net repayments of foreign liabilities. Monthly net repayments exceeded EUR 860 m. Around 80% of repayments were related to the repayment of the matured bond of one of the banks. Banks were also net repaying all types of loans and deposits, mainly by reducing deposits at the central bank and the volume of loans and debt securities of foreign banks. In the first seven months, the total net repayments of liabilities to foreign banks totalled EUR 2.5 bn, which is almost the same amount as in 2011 as a whole, when the net outflows of foreign sources of funds were highest. The volume of government and household deposits declined significantly in the first eight months. In August, the outflows of government deposits from banks (EUR 77.9 m) were much lower than in July. All types of government deposits declined, most notably, long-term deposits. In the first eight months, the volume of government deposits shrank by over EUR 700 m, in contrast to the same period last year, when it had risen by more than EUR 340 m. August also recorded the largest decline in household deposits since the beginning of the crisis (by EUR 141.7 m). Deposits redeemable at notice were the only deposits to increase, while long-term deposits declined for the fourth time this year. Together with the decline in government long-term deposits, this is gradually deteriorating the maturity structure of deposits in Slovenian banks. Owing to the substantial decline in August, the volume of household deposits dropped by nearly EUR 15 m in the first eight months, compared with the same period of last year, when it increased by more than EUR 270 m. The quality of bank assets deteriorated further in July, and the deterioration spread to other activities. The volume of bad clams30 rose by a solid EUR 200 m, largely on account of higher non-performing claims.31 The volume of bad claims climbed to EUR 6.5 bn by the end of July, reaching 13.0% of the total exposure of banks. In the first seven months, the volume of bad claims rose by over EUR 930 m, i.e. around 30% more than in the same period last year. The increases in construction and financial intermediation are not much different from those in the comparable period last year. The increase in bad claims in manufacturing is particularly critical (over EUR 200 m), and so are, albeit to a lesser extent, the increases in trade and real estate, meaning that the deterioration spread to other activities. Banks therefore remain under strong pressure to create additional impairments and provisions. These totalled EUR 93.0 m in August, recording EUR 650 m in the first eight months, an increase of 40% from the previous August. Figure 29: Increase in bad claims and their y-o-y growth rates in some more exposed activities Net increase (left axis) -Growth rate (right axis) 350 300 250 ; 200 ' 150 100 50 900 750 600 450 ^ 300 150 0 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance IIn the first eight months, revenue from taxes and social security contributions32 totalled EUR 8.8 bn, 0.3% less than in the same period last year. Among tax revenues, revenues from excise duties33 were up in particular, especially from excise duties on energy (10.0%) due to higher sales of main energy products.34 Revenue from excise duties on 30 C-, D- and E-rated claims. 31 D- and E-rated claims. 32 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-August 2012, Public Payments Administration. 33 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 34 In the period from January to July 2012, the quantities of main mineral oils sold were up 7.1% (D-2 by 13.2%, but with a tendency to fall from month to month). 0 -150 Box 1: Main aggregates of the general government sector (ESA 95) After the SORS revision, the general government deficit1 for 2011 is estimated at EUR 2,307 m, or 6.4% of GDP (equal to the first estimate in March this year). It was 0.7 p.p. of GDP higher than in 2010, and the highest since 1995 (8.3% of GDP). Amid modest economic growth in nominal terms, general government revenue was up 1.2% (2010: 3.4%) and general government expenditure 2.5% (the same increase as a year earlier). This was also a consequence of specific transactions2 (EUR 459 or 1.3% of GDP), which are much higher than in the preceding year (EUR 93 m or 0.3% of GDP) and increased general government expenditure and deficit as a current capital transfer.3 The deficit was generated primarily at the central government level (EUR 2,295, or 6.3% of GDP), and was much higher than in 2010 (EUR 1,774 m, or 5.0% of GDP). At the local government level, the deficit was lower than a year earlier (0.1% of GDP), while social security funds saw a modest surplus (EUR 4 m) due to the recapitalisation of KAD (in the amount of EUR 90 m). Figure 30: General government sector revenue, expenditure, and deficit Deficit (left axis) -Revenue (right axis) -----Expenditure (right axis) -GDP (right axis) 10 S 5 0"i= -10 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. General government revenue for 2011 is estimated at EUR 16.0 bn. Its nominal increase relative to the preceding year was mainly due to higher transfer revenues. General government revenue as a share of GDP declined by 0.2 p.p. (to 44.3% of GDP). Its growth was mainly underpinned by transfer revenues (funds from the EU budget; 1.0 p.p.) and revenues from production for the market, own final consumption and other non-market production (0.7 p.p.), while the contributions of capital transfers (-0.3 p.p.) and revenue from taxes and social contributions (-0.1 p.p.) were negative. Among the main tax categories, only the assessed social security contributions contributed to revenue growth (0.3 p.p.). With unchanged contribution rates, they followed the movement of wages and were up 0.8% y-o-y. The assessed taxes on production and imports had no bearing on growth. In view of slower economic activity and modest domestic consumption, the VAT accrual assessment remained unchanged in nominal terms, while the assessed excise duties were somewhat lower due to lower excise duties on energy (-0.5%). After the assessment of personal income tax and corporate income tax, the contribution of current income and property taxes was negative (-0.4 p.p.). General government expenditure for 2011 is estimated at EUR 18.3 bn. Its nominal increase relative to the preceding year was mainly due to higher specific transactions, without which revenue would have grown by 0.5%. General government expenditure as a share of GDP increased by 0.5 p.p. (to 50.7% of GDP), largely due to growing capital transfers, social benefits in cash and kind, and interest. Expenditure growth was underpinned particularly by capital transfers (1.8 p.p.), as a result of to the capital increase in NLB d.d. and some other state-owned companies, the takeover of debts of the Slovenian Railways and the public company building the Sava river hydroelectric power plants, and the payment of guarantees due. Table 9: Main aggregates of the general government, in % of GDP 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 As a share in GDP, in % Total general government revenue 42.8 43.8 43.2 42.4 42.4 43.1 44.5 44.3 Total general government expenditure 46.5 45.3 44.6 42.4 44.3 49.1 50.3 50.7 Deficit -3.7 -1.5 -1.4 0.0 -1.9 -6.0 -5.7 -6.4 Of which: Central government -3.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.1 -1.3 -5.0 -5.0 -6.3 Local government 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 Social security funds -0.5 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 Consolidated government debt 26.3 26.7 26.4 23.1 22.0 35.0 38.6 46.9 Source: SORS, Main aggregates of the general government, 28. 9. 2012. 1 ESA95 methodology. 2 Equity injections into NLB d.d. and some state-owned companies, the assumption of the liabilities of the Slovenian Railways and the debt of the public company building the Save river hydroelectric power plants, and the payment of guarantees due. 3 Without these transactions, the general government deficit would account for 5.4% of GDP in 2010, and 5.1% of GDP in 2011. 15 Social benefits in kind and cash also contributed to growth (1.4 p.p.), largely as a result of a growing number of the unemployed and socially disadvantaged, as the adjustment of pensions and social transfers to inflation was limited with an intervention law to only a quarter of full indexation. In view of higher government borrowing, the contribution of interest expenditure was positive (0.6 p.p.). Because of the transfer of the Slovenian Railways units4 into the general government sector, the compensation of employees and intermediate government consumption also contributed to growth (0.6 p.p. and 0.5 p.p., respectively), regardless of the austerity measures, the restrictive wage policy and only modest growth in the number of general government employees (0.4%). The shrinkage of general government expenditure showed particularly in a decline in investment and investment transfers and subsidies,5 which reduced expenditure growth by 1.6 p.p. and 1.8 p.p., respectively. Based on the quarterly non-financial sector accounts, the general government deficit for the second quarter6 of 2011 is estimated at EUR 430 m, or 4.7% of GDP (in the first quarter, EUR 451 m, or 5.3% of GDP). While general government revenue had been up 2.0% y-o-y in the first quarter, it was down 1.3% in the second due to the deteriorated economic situation. Only social security contributions were up y-o-y in both quarters, while taxes on production and imports and taxes on income and wealth increased y-o-y only in the first. In both quarters, general government expenditure was lower y-o-y (-5.9% in the first, and -7.3% in the second). This significant decline is largely related to substantially lower capital transfers, which totalled EUR 382 m in both quarters last year, compared with only EUR 77 m this year (a EUR 61 m capital increase in NLB d.d. in the second quarter). In the first quarter, expenditure on interest and the compensation of employees were higher y-o-y, while expenditure on subsidies, investment and intermediate consumption decreased. In the second quarter, general government expenditure declined even more. All categories of expenditure were down y-o-y, except expenditure from property income (interest), which was 8.0% higher. 4 In 2011, the Slovenian Railways were reorganised into four independent units; two of these units, SR Passenger transport and SR Infrastructure, were (as non-market units) included in the general government sector 5 As a result of the phasing-out of anti-crisis measures and the reorganisation of the Slovenian Railways. 6 In the first half of 2012, the deficit was estimated at EUR 881 m or 5.0% of GDP (last year, EUR 1,520 or 8.5% of GDP). Table 10: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-VIII 12 VIII 12/VIII 11 I-VIII 12/I-VIII 11 I-VIII 11 I-VIII 12 General government revenue - total 8,794.9 4.2 -0.3 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 382.7 -1.8 -17.1 5.2 4.4 Personal income tax 1,271.2 -5.5 -4.3 15.1 14.5 Value added tax 1,945.8 11.2 -1.8 22.5 22.1 Excise duties 1,019.9 12.5 8.2 10.7 11.6 Social security contributions 3,486.4 6.1 2.7 38.5 39.6 Other general government revenues 688.9 -9.9 -2.7 8.0 7.8 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Note: *The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. tobacco and tobacco products was also higher (6.6%), as was revenue from excise duties on alcohol and alcohol products (1.6%), where the increase mainly resulted from higher excise duty rates,35 as the quantities sold continue to decline.36 In the first eight months, revenue from corporate income tax shrank by 17.1% y-o-y as a result of the tax assessments based on business results for 2011, which also reduced this year's monthly prepayments of this tax. The inflows from value added tax (-1.8%) were lower as well, as a result of lower domestic demand, as were total revenues from wage-related taxes and contributions37 (-1.1%). 35 Excise duties rates on alcohol and alcohol products were raised in April; excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products in April and July. 36 In the period from January to July 2012, the quantities of tobacco and tobacco products sold were 2.2% lower y-o-y; the quantities of alcohol and alcohol products 8.1% lower. 37 Social security contributions and tax on wages from employment (part of the personal income tax). In August, Slovenia received less from the EU budget than in previous months (EUR 40.9 m), but its net budgetary position nevertheless remained positive. August's payments into the EU budget were roughly equal to this year's average (EUR 29.9 m), while Slovenia's net positive position declined from around EUR 44 m to EUR 11 m relative to July. In the first eight months, Slovenia received EUR 511.3 m from the EU budget, or 57.5% of funds planned in the supplementary budget for 2012. The bulk came from structural funds (EUR 220.7 m, or 53.3% of revenue foreseen from this source in the supplementary budget). The highest realisation (76.1%) was recorded for funds absorbed under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, and the lowest for receipts from the Cohesion Fund (40.5%). In the same period, Slovenia paid EUR 297.8 m into the EU budget, 73.8% of all funds it is expected to pay this year. In the first eight months, Slovenia's net budgetary position towards the EU budget was positive in the amount of EUR 213.5 m (last year, EUR 207.1 m). Figure 31: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2012 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2011 ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January-August) Total receipts in 2011 (January-December) 100 200 400 300 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 500 February's payments into the EU budget, which diverge upwards each year (this year, EUR 92.1 m) due to higher payments (triple the amount of the average monthly payments) for the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF). Monthly receipts from the EU budget were more volatile than in previous years, while payments into the EU budget were similar. Last year, receipts from the EU budget had been declining steadily until August (EUR 35.0 m), after the high inflows in March (EUR 99.7 m), while the dynamics in the first eight months this year were more versatile. The absorption of EU funds was highest in March (EUR 134.8 m) and June (EUR 109.8 m), with receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies accounting for the largest share (EUR 100.9 m in March and EUR 61.7 m in June). In other months, the receipts from the EU budget were much lower (on average, EUR 44 m). Payments into the EU budget were, similar to those in previous years, less volatile this year, averaging EUR 29 m, except for Figure 32: Transfers between Slovenia's budget and the EU Payments from Slovenia's budget into the EU 2011 budget Receipts from the EU budget into Slovenia's 2011 budget -Receipts from the EU budget into Slovenia's 2012 budget -Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU 2012 budget — Payments from Slovenia's budget into the EU 2012 budget — Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU 2011 budget 105 70 i 35 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 140 M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2012-2013 Slovenia remains in the group of countries that have significantly deteriorated their rankings on the WEF competitiveness scale during the crisis. This year's Global Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF) covers 144 countries, which are compared according to 111 indicators divided in three main competitiveness categories.38 With survey-based indicators representing a substantial share of the common estimate,39 the results are also significantly impacted by subjective estimates of respondents. The top three countries are Switzerland, Singapore and Finland, all of which boast high government efficiency, transparency of public institutions, low corruption, efficient goods, services and labour markets, and high investment in human resources. Slovenia was placed 56'h (last year, 57'h) among all countries analysed and 21st among EU Member States, and it remains one of the EU countries that have dropped strongly on the competitiveness scale in the last four years.40 In this period, its ranking has deteriorated in all three categories of competitiveness, particularly in efficiency enhancers. The main barriers for doing business in Slovenia are limited access to loans (20.8% of respondents participating in the WEF survey), inefficient government bureaucracy (18.0%) and restrictive labour regulations (15.1%). According to the WEF report, Slovenia has made no major positive shifts in the basic factors of competitiveness in the last year. The trust in institutions, which is low compared with other EU countries, has declined further. As in the previous two years, managers are highly dissatisfied with public institutions and the burden of government regulation (124'h place), the efficiency of legal framework in settling disputes (126'h) and wastefulness of government spending (118'h place). Slovenia also ranks in the lowest third of all countries analysed (and at the bottom end of EU Member States) when it comes to private institutions, largely on account of the low efficacy of corporate boards and a low degree of protection of minority shareholders' interests. Moreover, certain macroeconomic indicators (particularly in the area of public finances) have also worsened substantially in the last year, which is reflected in a considerable deterioration of Slovenia's ranking in this category (by 15 places, to 50'h). The substantial drop in certain basic competitiveness factors continues to be 38 The indicators are grouped in 12 key pillars of competitiveness, which are divided in three categories. The first, basic requirements, includes institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, and health and primary education. Efficiency enhancers include higher education and training, goods and labour market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness and market size, while the third category consists of innovation and business sophistication factors. The methodology has remained almost unchanged for several years, which enables comparisons between individual years. 39 Altogether 111 indicators were used in the survey this year. 79 of them were soft (surveys among managers), while the others were statistical data for 2011 (or the most recent available), which means that the number of scores and the rankings largely depend on surveys. The survey of managers was conducted in the first half of this year. 40 In 2008 it was 42nd. offset by the high scores in the fields of infrastructure, health and primary care, according to which Slovenia is still among more competitive countries.41 The deterioration of Slovenia's ranking in business efficiency is largely due to the inefficient financial sector. The situation on the financial markets in Slovenia is very tense and the managers surveyed are dissatisfied in particular with access to loans42 and bank liquidity (134'h place). The data show that the quality of banks' assets deteriorated significantly, which had a further negative impact on lending activity. The WEF report also shows the absence of structural reforms on the labour market, given that Slovenia has scored very low in this area for several years, much lower than before the crisis. Hiring and firing practices (142nd place) and a lack of flexibility in wage determination (124th place) remain among the most problematic factors for businesses. Slovenia also ranks lower than in the previous year regarding the adjustment of wages to productivity (104'h), but has retained its high position in higher education and training (23rd). Enhancing support for innovations, Slovenia has improved its position in the area of innovations in the last year, while it has slipped in business sophistication. According to the WEF report, in the last year Slovenia has made positive shifts regarding innovation activity, the quality of scientific research institutions, the number of patents and the availability of scientists and engineers. It has also increased investment in R&D, but at the same time, it scores low on the indicator of government procurement of advanced technology products. Innovation is, besides higher education, one of the few categories of competitiveness, in which Slovenia has retained its high position from before the crisis. On the other hand, it has fallen substantially in business sophistication, which indicates inappropriate and slow adjustment of Slovenian businesses to the changed circumstances in recent years. The WEF continues to develop a new index of sustainable competitiveness, which will assess competitiveness over the longer term. This year, the composition of the index changed significantly, as the WEF added two additional sub-indices.43 One measures social sustainability (i.e. demography, social cohesion and access to basic necessities, while the other assesses environmental sustainability (environmental policy, management of renewable resources and environmental degradation). Taking into account these non-economic indicators, Slovenia ranks higher on the sustainable competitiveness 41 35th and 24th, respectively. 42 In the last year, Slovenia has deteriorated its position with regard to access to loans (by 11 places, to 118th), venture capital availability (by 29 places, to 113th) and financing through the local equity market (by 4 places, to 112th). Before the crisis, Slovenia was in the upper half of the analysed countries in all three areas. 43 The calculation of sub-indices is based on the global competitiveness index multiplied by the appropriate (social or environmental sustainability) coefficient. The coefficient is calculated based on the indicators for individual areas (social, environmental). The sustainable competitiveness index is the average of social and environmental sustainability indices. index than in global competitiveness44 (24'h; in the EU, 14'h). However, the index has yet to be fully developed and can undergo major changes in both indicators and the methodology in the following years. The WEF finds that there is a correlation between short-term competitiveness and sustainable competitiveness, as countries with the best results in global competitiveness (with some exceptions, for example the US) also score highest in terms of sustainable competitiveness. The key factor in achieving sustainable competitiveness is, much as in global competitiveness, political will and efficient management of natural resources. certain macroeconomic balances (e.g. in public finances) and revealed the structural weaknesses of the country and its economy. Slovenia thus scores higher than before the crisis solely in the Doing Business Report by the World Bank, which evaluates countries only by the quality of the regulatory environment and is not influenced by subjective opinion of respondents and current economic conditions. Table 11: Slovenia's ranking in international comparisons of competitiveness WEF IMD DB* 2007 39 (131) 40 (55) 55 (178) 2008 42 (134) 32 (55) 54 (181) 2009 37 (133) 32 (57) 53 (183) 2010 45 (139) 52 (58) 37 (183) 2011 57 (142) 51 (59) 37 (183) 2012 56 (144) 51 (59) Source: IMD, WEF, World Bank. Note: Slovenia's ranking; in brackets, the number of countries included in the survey; * since 2010 not comparable with previous years due to methodological changes. The WEF Global Competitiveness report, much as other surveys (IMD, WB Worldwide Governance Indicators, Index of Economic Freedom), confirms the relatively low international competitiveness of Slovenia compared with other developed countries. All these surveys indicate a substantial loss of Slovenia's competitiveness in the period since the beginning of the crisis. The crisis disrupted Figure 33: Comparison of WEF indicators for Slovenia and innovation-driven economies -Innovation-driven economies * (top 10 countries) -Slovenia 2012/2013 .....Slovenia 2008/2009 Innovatio Business sophistication Market size Technological readiness Infrastructure Financial marke' development Macroeconomic environment Health and primary education /Higher education and training Goods market efficiency Labour market efficiency Source: WEF. Note: "top 10 countries. A higher score indicates a better outcome; the highest score is 7. 44 Owing to the unavailability of certain data, only 79 countries were captured in the sample this year. Slovenia ranks 42th in the global competitiveness index for 2012/13 among all countries analysed, and 18th among the EU countries. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Autumn forecast 2012 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 7.0 3.4 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.0 -1.4 0.9 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 34,594 37,244 35,556 35,607 36,172 35,700 35,495 36,129 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 17,135 18,420 17,415 17,379 17,620 17,457 17,327 17,610 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 20,600 20,800 21,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 91 87 85 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,859 36,262 34,868 35,029 35,670 34,970 34,626 35,235 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,618 35,923 34,693 35,085 35,776 35,099 34,946 35,271 Rate of registered unemployment 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 11.9 13.1 13.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.3 9.1 9.1 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.5 0.8 -6.1 3.5 2.2 -0.6 0.9 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.2 1.8 Inflation,2 end of the year 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.8 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.7 4.0 -16.7 10.1 7.0 0.1 1.9 4.7 Exports of goods 13.9 1.8 -17.4 11.9 8.5 -0.3 1.8 5.0 Exports of services 13.2 14.3 -13.7 3.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 16.7 3.7 -19.5 7.9 5.2 -5.2 -1.0 3.8 Imports of goods 16.2 3.0 -20.7 8.9 6.1 -5.1 -1.0 3.9 Imports of services 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.7 -0.3 -5.9 -0.8 3.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -1,646 -2,295 -246 -209 2 810 1,363 1,142 As a per cent share relative to GDP -4.8 -6.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 2.3 3.8 3.2 Gross external debt, in EUR million 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,723 40,241 40,9015 As a per cent share relative to GDP 100.5 105.3 113.3 114.4 111.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.267 1.240 1.322 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 1.5 As a % of GDP4 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.8 57.1 56.6 56.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 -0.9 -3.5 -0.7 0.3 As a % of GDP4 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.6 19.8 19.3 19.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -10.7 -1.5 4.0 3.0 As a % of GDP4 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 19.5 19.4 20.0 20.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2012). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End July 2012. PRODUCTION 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -17.4 6.2 2.2 10.7 7.2 7.4 8.7 3.6 0.1 -3.0 0.6 -0.9 6.3 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 B Mining and quarrying -2.9 11.0 -8.1 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.6 -9.3 -9.3 -7.9 -8.9 -0.6 15.9 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 C Manufacturing -18.7 6.6 2.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 9.1 3.7 -0.3 -3.6 0.0 -2.2 7.4 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -6.6 1.8 5.0 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.0 8.3 12.8 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -21.0 -17.0 -25.6 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -20.1 -17.7 -16.7 -17.4 -13.1 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 Buildings -22.6 -14.0 -39.7 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -6.5 -11.2 -17.8 -20.4 -17.5 -28.1 Civil engineering -19.9 -18.9 -15.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -10.0 -21.2 -21.3 -20.9 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.2 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport -9.2 7.9 3.2 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 3.6 11.7 6.0 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -24.2 28.2 9.7 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 8.5 -1.6 -8.7 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -13.0 3.6 3.1 4.9 4.7 5.8 7.5 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 Real turnover in retail trade -10.6 -0.1 1.4 0.3 2.0 1.8 3.4 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -2.7 1.8 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -21.7 12.1 6.6 15.4 11.8 15.0 15.8 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.8 -7.2 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -21.4 1.4 5.8 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.8 4.5 3.4 3.2 -0.8 3.1 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -3.4 -1.5 5.3 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 1.2 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 2.8 -4.2 0.5 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -8.0 0.7 9.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 5.1 43 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) -7.8 2.8 3.7 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 5.6 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 449.3 454.5 478.9 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 110.4 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -23 -9 -7 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -10 -12 -16 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -23 -1 0 -1 2 1 3 3 -1 -7 -6 -11 5 1 1 4 -1 - in construction -50 -57 -46 -59 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -43 -40 -43 -60 -57 -51 -50 -54 - in services -14 -3 1 -6 -2 -2 1 3 3 -4 -8 -8 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 - in retail trade -12 7 8 7 12 10 6 12 2 11 6 5 12 14 10 11 8 Consumer confidence indicator -30 -25 -25 -22 -27 -26 -26 -25 -25 -24 -26 -36 -27 -27 -27 -26 -24 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 13.8 13.8 6.5 6.5 3.3 4.3 3.1 -1.5 -1.5 2.8 -1.9 0.6 -8.0 1.0 4.0 -2.6 3.2 -3.3 -2.1 4.4 39.7 -6.4 -1.2 -8.4 -4.7 -22.1 0.2 -8.5 -17.3 -1.7 -6.0 -2.5 -16.3 7.4 -10.2 -20.7 -6.3 11.3 -5.3 -7.6 12.4 14.6 6.6 6.9 3.2 4.9 3.1 -1.9 -2.4 3.0 -2.6 -0.5 -8.2 0.7 2.8 -2.9 3.2 -4.8 -4.4 2.7 - - 17.4 11.0 6.3 3.6 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.4 11.8 -0.4 4.7 13.1 -4.0 3.5 16.1 5.5 5.4 9.9 23.9 22.7 - - -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.4 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.4 -25.5 -9.6 -24.5 -24.5 -26.6 -5.0 -14.7 -23.5 -11.2 -18.3 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -35.9 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 -31.2 -31.0 27.6 -7.3 -15.6 4.7 -22.4 -'2.' -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 -18.2 -22.8 -22.0 -18.9 -26.9 -17.4 -16.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.4 0.0 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.3 -1.1 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.4 -0.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.1 -8.8 -7.7 -0.5 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 6.2 1.1 -0.3 8.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 -0.9 8.4 3.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.3 -2.4 6.2 - - -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 1.3 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 - - -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 8.4 - - 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.2 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.1 4.7 7.6 -1.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 -3.5 1.4 -0.8 2.5 -0.1 0.3 - - 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 47.2 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -10 -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 -17 -16 -19 -19 -1 3 4 3 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -3 -6 -8 -10 -11 -13 -12 -15 -14 -56 -55 -50 -50 -48 -44 -45 -46 -43 -43 -43 -46 -41 -42 -39 -39 -44 -43 -43 -41 -36 -36 -1 1 -2 4 5 2 3 3 5 2 0 -3 -9 -10 -9 -4 -7 -7 -10 -11 -14 -14 11 7 12 0 9 15 12 2 -7 12 11 13 10 6 7 6 8 2 5 2 1 -1 -26 -26 -28 -25 -26 -25 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 -26 -26 -26 -38 -33 -37 -36 -35 -35 LABOUR MARKET 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 944.5 935.5 934.7 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 923.7 933.0 934.1 938.2 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 858.2 835.0 824.0 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 816.5 834.0 836.2 835.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.9 33.4 38.8 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 37.8 34.0 34.0 33.3 In industry, construction 306.9 287.3 272.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 266.3 286.5 286.6 285.8 Of which: in manufacturing 199.8 188.6 184.8 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 184.1 187.7 188.1 188.4 in construction 86.8 78.5 67.8 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 61.6 78.6 78.2 77.1 In services 513.4 514.3 512.3 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 512.4 513.4 515.7 516.4 Of which: in public administration 51.5 52.0 51.4 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 51.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 in education, health-services, social work 113.8 116.7 118.8 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 121.6 115.6 117.5 117.9 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 767.4 747.2 729.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 722.7 745.7 747.3 746.8 In enterprises and organisations 699.4 685.7 671.8 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 667.4 684.4 686.4 686.2 By those self-employed 67.9 61.5 57.2 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 55.4 61.3 61.0 60.5 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.8 87.8 94.9 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 93.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 86.4 100.5 110.7 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 107.2 99.0 97.9 102.7 Female 42.4 47.9 52.1 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 51.0 48.1 47.7 49.8 By age: under 26 13.3 13.9 12.9 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 10.8 12.5 12.2 15.7 aged over 50 26.2 31.4 39.0 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 38.1 31.1 31.3 31.7 Unskilled 34.1 37.5 39.5 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 39.2 36.6 36.7 37.2 For more than 1 year 31.5 42.8 50.2 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 55.1 44.1 44.6 46.7 Those receiving benefits 27.4 30.0 36.3 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 33.2 29.4 29.4 28.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.1 10.7 11.8 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 11.6 10.6 10.5 10.9 Male 8.3 10.1 11.4 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.1 9.8 9.7 10.1 Female 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 11.6 11.5 12.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 30.4 13.3 2.7 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 New unemployed first-job seekers 17.0 16.8 14.4 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 0.8 1.4 6.3 Redundancies 90.5 83.5 82.2 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 5.7 6.7 7.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 48.6 57.0 61.0 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 14.0 4.0 6.8 4.8 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.5 29.9 32.8 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 11.1 1.8 2.4 3.8 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 161.3 174.6 194.5 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 44.9 41.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 For a fixed term, in % 78.1 80.7 81.7 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 82.9 83.4 83.0 82.6 81.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 54.9 41.6 35.6 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.4 40.8 40.7 40.2 As % of labour force 5.8 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 NEW JOBS 111.4 104.1 118.3 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 30.8 27.3 6.6 13.0 10.9 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2010 2011 2012 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 15.6 13.1 16.2 14.0 14.2 13.0 15.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 80.3 82.7 85.7 83.3 83.9 83.0 83.7 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 11.8 8.4 10.6 10.0 9.0 8.4 8.2 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.4 3.9 2.0 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 3.6 2.7 4.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.2 5.8 3.1 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 -1.0 6.6 5.6 5.9 B Mining and quarrying 0.9 4.0 3.8 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.6 3.1 -0.4 0.8 C Manufacturing 0.8 9.0 3.9 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 7.0 5.1 8.3 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 3.7 2.3 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.9 2.7 -3.4 13.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.0 2.2 -0.1 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 1.5 -1.2 3.3 F Constrution 1.0 4.4 2.0 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 3.8 5.6 5.6 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.9 3.7 2.8 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.6 4.3 4.2 4.5 H Transportation and storage 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 2.3 2.6 4.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.6 4.0 2.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 5.5 5.1 4.1 J Information and communication 1.4 2.6 0.9 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 1.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 K Financial and insurance activities -0.7 1.0 0.6 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 L Real estate activities 1.9 3.0 2.9 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 -1.3 1.5 0.8 2.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.1 1.6 -0.4 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 1.3 -0.2 1.4 N Administrative and support service activities 1.8 4.1 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 0.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.9 -0.6 0.3 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 0.3 1.3 0.6 P Education 3.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.9 0.5 -0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 1.5 -2.2 0.0 S Other service activities 1.3 4.2 0.9 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 4.5 5.4 3.7 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal 1.1 -2.1 -0.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -1.8 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -2.5 -2.2 -3.0 Real (deflator ULC) 6.5 -1.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.8 -2.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -1.4 USD/EUR 1.3933 1.3268 1.3917 1.2727 1.2910 1.3593 1.3669 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.3067 1.3898 1.3661 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Change in the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012; the new source ECB, before that own calculations (IMAD). ^Harmonised effective exchange rate - 20 group of trading partners and 17 Euro area countries; a rise in the value indicates appreciation of national currency and vice versa. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 1.3220 1.3360 1.3649 1.3999 1.4442 1.4349 1.4388 1.4264 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 6 7 8 9 10 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 1.0 4.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 4.2 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.7 7.2 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 Clothing and footwear -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.3 10.2 5.6 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 Furnishings, household equipment 4.0 1.4 2.7 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 Medical, pharmaceutical products 4.0 2.1 1.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.1 5.1 Transport -3.0 -0.3 1.0 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 Communications -4.1 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 Recreation and culture 3.0 0.4 -1.5 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 Education 3.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 Catering services 4.4 -2.5 -6.8 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.8 1.4 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 HCPI 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.9 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -1.3 2.1 4.5 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.8 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 Domestic market -0.4 2.0 3.8 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 Non-domestic market -2.2 2.2 5.3 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.7 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 euro area -3.5 2.2 6.1 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 non-euro area 0.3 2.1 3.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 Import price indices -3.3 7.4 5.4 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.2 8.7 7.6 8.0 7.7 7.6 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices -12.3 16.5 10.9 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 16.6 46.6 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 Oil products -12.0 17.3 11.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 16.6 47.1 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 Transport & communications 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices 4.9 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 6.1 16.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Direct control - total -6.9 14.2 2.8 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 11.0 35.4 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2012 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 4.4 4.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.8 5.5 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.2 15.4 24.0 35.8 46.8 57.3 64.9 80.5 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 15.3 23.9 36.3 47.4 57.7 63.6 78.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 6.0 9.3 12.6 16.1 19.8 24.1 28.6 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 12.4 18.9 27.5 35.5 43.4 49.2 60.0 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 7 8 9 10 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -246 -209 2 -107 -61 -62 55 73 -91 -36 -28 282 -11 -55 6 -40 Goods1 -498 -997 -1,043 -225 -185 -447 -227 -219 -214 -383 -225 -60 -26 -111 -48 -134 Exports 16,410 18,762 21,265 4,778 4,732 4,962 5,179 5,486 5,245 5,354 5,329 5,509 1,636 1,329 1,767 1,695 Imports 16,908 19,759 22,308 5,003 4,917 5,409 5,406 5,705 5,458 5,738 5,555 5,569 1,662 1,440 1,815 1,829 Services 1,165 1,285 1,443 341 341 314 316 399 358 370 404 458 87 113 141 131 Exports 4,347 4,616 4,839 1,120 1,343 1,174 1,052 1,186 1,381 1,219 1,113 1,238 461 447 436 392 Imports 3,182 3,331 3,396 779 1,002 860 736 787 1,023 849 709 780 374 333 295 262 Income -754 -599 -550 -182 -226 -116 -85 -143 -238 -84 -173 -162 -98 -64 -63 -36 Receipts 666 574 918 167 140 160 204 237 220 257 182 183 56 43 41 44 Expenditure 1,420 1,173 1,469 349 366 276 289 380 459 341 355 345 154 107 105 80 Current transfers -159 102 153 -41 8 188 52 36 3 61 -33 45 26 6 -24 -2 Receipts 959 1,203 1,373 219 273 448 378 320 311 364 334 351 117 89 68 90 Expenditure 1,119 1,100 1,220 260 265 260 326 284 308 302 368 306 91 82 91 92 Capital and financial account 175 535 -452 291 230 -2 48 -244 -84 -172 132 -243 156 -27 101 86 Capital account 14 53 -102 11 24 -37 -7 -6 -8 -82 6 26 -5 -1 30 18 Financial account 161 482 -350 280 206 35 55 -239 -77 -89 126 -269 161 -26 71 68 Direct investment -657 431 638 100 82 358 -9 240 246 160 222 47 98 44 -60 83 Domestic abroad -187 160 -81 86 46 54 -15 31 55 -152 2 88 17 34 -5 1 Foreign in Slovenia -470 271 719 14 36 304 6 209 191 313 220 -42 81 10 -55 81 Portfolio investment 4,628 1,956 1,838 509 -51 392 2,592 -300 -440 -15 -935 213 78 -29 -101 71 Financial derivatives -2 -117 -136 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -24 -18 -20 -10 -5 -4 -5 -8 Other investment -3,976 -1,806 -2,762 -214 171 -689 -2,457 -177 108 -236 820 -513 -7 -33 211 -96 Assets -267 783 -1,461 -591 536 594 -1,525 -159 -349 572 -1,480 -82 699 -201 38 -166 Commercial credits 416 -174 -47 -213 30 232 -322 -88 44 319 -349 -34 -6 195 -158 -101 Loans -1 203 -52 510 21 20 -99 -22 48 22 4 -97 127 18 -124 -33 Currency and deposits -603 672 -1,315 -883 391 346 -1,109 -48 -408 250 -1,145 22 569 -487 309 -19 Other assets -80 81 -46 -6 94 -4 5 0 -33 -18 10 26 9 73 12 -13 Liabilities -3,708 -2,589 -1,301 378 -365 -1,283 -932 -18 457 -808 2,300 -430 -706 168 173 70 Commercial credits -452 362 94 262 -63 72 199 -18 -85 -3 167 136 -31 -182 149 134 Loans -2,911 -986 -1,235 -189 -8 -385 -388 -298 203 -753 -145 -295 -40 -21 53 -240 Deposits -318 -1,954 -169 358 -305 -928 -787 334 340 -57 2,287 -288 -607 348 -46 180 Other liabilities -27 -11 9 -54 12 -42 42 -36 0 3 -10 16 -28 23 17 -5 International reserves2 167 19 72 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 19 39 -6 -3 -4 25 19 Statistical error 71 -326 450 -184 -170 64 -104 171 175 207 -105 -39 -145 82 -107 -45 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,788 1,834 1,999 461 450 516 446 517 506 530 469 539 164 125 161 167 Intermediate goods 8,117 10,044 11,906 2,559 2,574 2,662 2,904 3,097 3,001 2,904 3,039 3,074 888 719 966 930 Consumer goods 6,189 6,550 6,909 1,674 1,627 1,694 1,737 1,757 1,622 1,792 1,682 1,738 555 459 613 570 Import of investment goods 2,295 2,323 2,504 616 579 671 563 616 589 736 555 580 181 150 248 191 Intermediate goods 9,839 12,210 14,010 3,083 3,059 3,339 3,500 3,588 3,452 3,471 3,623 3,533 1,048 895 1,115 1,162 Consumer goods 5,021 5,522 5,938 1,367 1,360 1,493 1,390 1,526 1,501 1,522 1,428 1,406 454 422 483 502 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 2012 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 -40 18 37 -54 73 49 -94 117 26 -127 10 70 2 -107 -51 -125 148 67 97 117 54 -128 -186 -47 -91 -89 -73 -162 16 20 -137 -97 -51 -108 -224 -112 -63 -51 -2 -37 -20 29 1,742 1,525 1,582 1,655 1,942 1,747 1,882 1,857 1,782 1,534 1,929 1,830 1,901 1,622 1,639 1,714 1,976 1,791 1,845 1,873 1,791 1,869 1,711 1,628 1,746 2,031 1,820 2,043 1,842 1,762 1,671 2,025 1,882 2,010 1,846 1,751 1,776 2,027 1,794 1,883 1,893 1,762 87 96 110 83 122 145 122 132 81 122 155 151 125 94 147 99 158 147 184 127 88 356 425 341 317 394 400 381 406 459 459 463 416 382 421 375 322 416 392 432 413 477 269 329 231 234 271 255 258 274 378 337 308 265 257 327 228 223 258 246 248 286 389 -44 -37 -26 -31 -28 -49 -55 -39 -94 -89 -56 -31 -39 -14 -60 -58 -55 -57 -53 -52 -57 43 72 57 58 89 68 82 87 74 65 82 80 77 99 61 59 62 58 65 61 53 87 109 83 89 117 117 137 126 167 154 138 111 116 114 121 117 117 115 118 112 111 45 144 -1 -15 68 27 0 9 19 -23 7 0 24 37 -26 -103 96 -20 3 62 -6 125 233 85 131 162 115 105 99 117 71 123 94 115 155 68 63 203 90 109 152 106 80 89 86 146 95 88 105 91 98 95 115 93 91 118 94 167 107 110 106 90 112 -223 135 -167 54 162 18 60 -322 55 -48 -92 -297 -60 185 80 193 -141 -131 -188 75 -17 6 -61 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 -6 9 3 26 1 0 0 -229 197 -158 52 161 20 60 -318 62 -44 -95 -295 -68 274 86 184 -144 -156 -188 76 -17 230 46 -117 -29 136 89 111 39 65 69 113 -82 -50 292 -19 110 131 -84 88 42 66 53 0 -57 22 20 -9 14 26 -44 41 57 -77 4 -79 -31 7 26 -24 40 72 12 177 46 -60 -51 116 98 98 13 109 27 55 -6 -53 372 12 104 104 -60 48 -30 53 183 139 1,136 -206 1,662 -361 288 -226 72 -64 -448 225 -179 -61 211 -820 -325 107 162 -56 -617 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 -11 0 -9 -2 0 -8 -2 -622 29 -1,159 301 -1,599 283 -335 -125 -59 -59 227 -421 125 61 -26 835 11 -177 -437 101 577 -632 1,392 -1,040 352 -836 78 -87 -150 -498 -17 166 -361 301 632 -614 99 -964 -386 121 183 184 -77 410 -218 29 -133 -83 31 -36 -39 202 -118 -135 42 412 -87 -85 -177 23 -32 -25 19 -3 56 -50 5 -54 12 -17 -18 -20 27 41 -48 23 46 21 129 -146 -153 -30 85 40 -547 912 -763 325 -671 138 -97 -89 -424 -228 244 -187 234 203 -545 38 -638 -261 165 119 93 -5 14 -9 -7 21 10 -3 -7 -14 -18 -1 9 3 -29 -3 17 -4 4 17 5 31 10 -1,363 -118 -51 -763 205 -248 25 439 -42 61 -60 -177 -572 588 736 976 209 -558 -82 393 62 -124 -42 60 181 143 4 -165 -10 -263 188 -24 137 -116 -81 152 96 -16 -77 229 -11 242 -388 -109 -88 -190 -214 -226 142 240 -41 5 -201 -429 -122 64 -212 3 101 -212 -183 -106 -288 -820 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 550 833 904 115 -278 -126 527 -7 -30 31 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -33 7 12 -15 54 -36 -28 10 9 -2 -17 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 0 -2 -4 -41 262 -153 131 0 -235 -67 34 205 -82 175 82 227 58 -78 -29 -68 -7 63 90 -193 -37 171 178 127 142 177 156 183 178 178 154 173 171 177 181 143 155 171 180 186 173 N/A 941 792 904 929 1,070 996 1,060 1,042 1,005 903 1,093 1,026 1,052 826 951 987 1,100 1,000 1,040 1,033 N/A 601 523 522 553 663 560 599 599 559 439 624 594 629 570 500 528 654 556 568 614 N/A 229 252 151 174 238 185 227 205 204 166 219 203 226 307 175 158 223 187 201 193 N/A 1,138 1,039 1,051 1,130 1,319 1,153 1,265 1,170 1,119 1,059 1,275 1,203 1,254 1,014 1,162 1,178 1,282 1,171 1,198 1,164 N/A 542 449 424 455 511 477 557 491 475 474 552 504 536 482 445 458 525 448 474 485 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 2SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 160 138 102 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 Central government (S. 1311) 3,497 3,419 4,299 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 376 526 584 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,413 9,282 9,454 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,704 21,646 20,867 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,024 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,646 21,793 21,775 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,680 2,497 2,226 2,606 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,497 2,454 2,402 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,302 5,811 5,445 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,811 5,674 5,740 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,731 35,994 35,692 35,430 35,620 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 In foreign currency 1,895 1,843 1,536 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 Securities, total 5,345 5,345 5,647 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,965 26,767 28,420 27,949 28,085 27,929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 Overnight 7,200 8,155 8,245 7,351 7,732 7,976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,408 8,193 7,868 9,006 8,674 8,377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 With agreed maturity -long-term 9,788 10,337 12,248 11,067 11,196 11,401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 569 82 59 525 483 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 Deposits in foreign currency, total 434 463 579 450 496 705 462 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 Overnight 238 285 386 270 299 513 280 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 With agreed maturity -short-term 141 121 133 121 130 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 With agreed maturity -long-term 45 55 59 55 59 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 10 2 1 4 8 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.28 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.51 1.81 2.15 1.66 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.43 5.53 5.46 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.28 5.76 5.72 5.98 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.23 0.81 1.39 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 6-month rates 1.44 1.08 1.64 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.37 0.19 0.12 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 6-month rates 0.50 0.27 0.18 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2011 2012 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,814 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,506 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,229 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,440 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,632 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,852 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 - 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.40 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 PUBLIC FINANCE 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 12 1 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,408.0 14,794.0 14,982.3 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.3 3,711.8 1,707.1 1,205.5 Current revenues 13,639.5 13,771.5 14,037.9 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.7 3,485.6 1,388.4 1,147.1 Tax revenues 12,955.4 12,848.4 13,209.2 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 1,227.7 1,094.8 Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 2,490.7 2,723.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 723.0 268.6 215.1 Social security contributions 5,161.3 5,234.5 5,267.6 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 491.6 437.7 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.5 28.1 29.2 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 6.4 3.1 2.3 Taxes on property 207.0 219.7 215.2 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 64.8 15.1 7.4 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,660.2 4,780.7 4,856.2 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 440.2 424.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.5 90.7 100.2 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 21.9 8.5 7.8 Other taxes 2.9 4.0 17.2 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 Non-tax revenues 684.1 923.0 828.7 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.0 171.6 160.8 52.3 Capital revenues 106.5 175.7 65.3 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 10.8 83.5 2.0 Grants 11.1 12.6 10.4 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.9 0.9 Transferred revenues 54.3 109.5 53.8 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 724.7 814.9 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 213.0 231.8 54.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,368.2 16,692.7 16,546.3 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.5 1,793.9 1,418.9 Current expenditures 6,800.8 6,960.4 6,926.7 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.6 670.0 638.7 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,911.9 3,912.4 3,882.7 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 967.0 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 960.7 976.2 328.0 326.1 Expenditures on goods and services 2,510.3 2,512.4 2,443.4 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.3 615.7 603.4 638.9 587.3 596.6 323.0 202.1 Interest payments 336.1 488.2 526.7 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 81.5 5.8 88.6 Reserves 42.5 47.4 73.9 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 14.3 13.2 22.0 Current transfers 7,339.4 7,628.5 7,818.9 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.5 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.9 716.1 673.8 Subsidies 597.9 581.9 496.3 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 69.1 128.2 177.1 107.8 98.1 97.5 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,024.5 6,277.7 6,533.5 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.9 526.6 521.6 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 678.1 728.8 737.2 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 169.6 89.1 51.2 Current transfers abroad 38.9 40.1 52.0 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 12.6 2.3 3.6 Capital expenditures 1,294.1 1,310.6 1,023.5 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 266.5 391.6 165.3 179.1 306.6 58.8 Capital transfers 494.6 396.4 372.1 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 97.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 68.2 12.5 Payments to the EU budget 439.3 396.8 405.1 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 86.5 33.0 35.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,960.2 -1,898.7 -1,564.1 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2011 2012 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10* 1 11* 1 12* 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 1,118.2 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 1,290.5 1,361.2 1,364.8 1,181.7 1,094.2 1,342.3 1,283.1 1,159.4 1,269.2 1,188.4 1,045.0 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.8 1,235.8 1,265.0 1,214.8 1,152.0 1,056.3 1,202.4 1,230.6 1,101.2 1,153.7 1,119.9 950.0 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,170.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 1,174.5 1,049.3 1,090.3 1,059.0 208.1 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 223.8 227.5 246.2 214.7 219.2 195.6 248.3 194.8 279.9 91.6 424.6 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 416.5 444.0 485.8 443.5 438.0 461.0 441.3 449.0 442.5 432.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 8.3 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 33.9 14.5 8.2 9.7 8.7 10.5 27.4 26.9 26.3 299.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 456.6 495.4 373.0 443.6 282.4 438.0 460.7 371.2 332.7 496.8 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 8.6 9.2 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 58.9 -26.3 -15.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 2.7 -1.9 -0.3 4.2 95.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.5 69.4 59.6 65.5 79.5 98.0 45.4 104.2 88.4 56.2 52.0 63.5 60.8 2.7 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 6.1 12.0 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.7 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 70.0 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 87.6 136.6 27.2 33.5 134.9 49.4 53.8 109.9 63.4 1,408.8 1,363.8 1,359.4 1,476.9 1,322.8 1,308.6 1,321.4 1,325.8 1,328.8 1,368.3 1,542.9 1,491.0 1,446.9 1,388.7 1,366.6 1,249.3 1,241.6 1,347.0 637.0 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.4 530.7 565.2 679.4 648.3 667.4 627.9 515.5 525.2 530.0 316.0 324.9 312.2 377.7 320.3 321.5 320.6 312.8 322.2 320.0 308.2 332.1 317.3 311.3 330.7 316.3 329.1 324.8 184.0 199.2 213.0 203.2 199.5 207.4 215.5 180.5 196.4 204.5 238.0 205.6 190.9 190.7 214.9 191.4 190.3 197.5 134.5 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 1.9 5.6 136.4 134.8 160.6 77.3 2.6 1.6 5.1 2.5 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 4.3 13.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.1 2.5 628.3 640.3 635.9 781.7 658.8 620.8 619.8 615.0 607.7 642.7 694.0 707.5 632.8 617.1 638.5 627.2 613.2 697.3 46.4 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 39.3 71.9 117.0 40.5 19.6 47.2 31.8 28.8 14.7 532.8 552.2 534.7 673.0 537.8 530.5 529.9 522.6 526.4 540.0 531.9 535.4 534.5 539.3 530.3 531.1 527.5 611.9 48.7 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.6 63.0 62.3 77.8 49.0 53.4 55.6 56.3 59.0 54.2 67.3 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 12.4 6.1 4.3 2.6 4.7 5.2 2.7 3.3 50.7 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 111.5 185.6 56.7 55.0 53.6 50.9 63.9 64.3 76.8 11.5 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.5 49.3 48.1 61.9 12.3 18.6 16.1 14.3 10.2 19.8 23.5 81.3 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 35.3 36.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 34.9 32.5 19.1 19.5 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AUKN - The Capital Assets Management Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, BS - Bank of Slovenia, DB - Doing Business, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU -European Monetary Union, ERM II - European Exchange Rate Mechanism, ESA - European System of Accounts, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HWWI - Das Hamburgische WeltWirtschaftsInstitut gemeinnützige GmbH, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, ifo - Information und Forschung Institut, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, KAD - Kapitalska družba d.d., LFS- Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OMT - Outright Monetary Transactions, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SKIS - Standard Classification of Institutional sectors, SMP - Securities Market Programme, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, WEF - World Economic Forum, WB - World Bank, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZSPJS - Public Sector Salary System Act, ZUJF - The Public Finance Balance Act, ZUPJS - Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror September 2012, No. 9. Vol. XVIII