.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > O Ü) O u 0) o fO ^ C fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 1 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Judita-Mirjana Novak (In)solvency in 2010); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc (Registered unemployment in 2010). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................24 Boxes Box 1: Commodity prices on international markets....................................................................................................8 Box 2: 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses.............................................................................................15 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................27 (In)solvency in 2010.........................................................................................................................................................29 Registered unemployment in 2010..............................................................................................................................31 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................35 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In January, the IMF improved slightly its forecast for this year's world economic growth, but still expects it to be slower than last year. The revision was mainly due to the fact that in the second half of last year, growth moderated less than expected in the autumn. Among the key countries, the outlook for growth was upgraded for the US and Germany, but economic growth will still be driven by emerging, largely Asian, countries. The risks that growth will be lower than expected remain high; in advanced economies, they are largely related to the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth. The values of most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia rose in November. After significant growth in the first half of the year and a slowdown in the autumn months, nominal merchandise exports and real production volume in manufacturing increased, but remained below the average of the pre-crisis year 2008. At the end of the first eleven months, they were up 13.3% and 6.5% y-o-y, respectively. Construction activity remained low in November. November's real turnover in retail trade and nominal turnover in accommodation and food service activities remained approximately at the previous month's level. The number of persons in formal employment continued to decline in November; December's increase in registered unemployment was the highest in 2010. According to seasonally adjusted data, employment declined by the same rate as in October (-0.3%). Broken down by activities, the number of employed persons continued to decline most notably in construction, being also lower than in the previous month in manufacturing and distributive trade. The number of registered unemployed, 110,021 at the end of the year, increased more than usually in this time of the year. The main reason for the greatest monthly inflow into the unemployment register in 2010 is a higher number of persons who had lost work, mainly due to the termination of temporary employment contracts and for business reasons or compulsory settlements. This high inflow is also partly related to the expected pension reform. November saw high growth in the average gross wage per employee, also as a result of 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses in the private sector. The average gross wage in the private sector rose by as much as 13.7% in nominal terms; growth in the basic wage was relatively high and so were extraordinary year-end payments (in some activities higher than in 2008 and 2009 and fully comparable with those before the crisis). The level of extraordinary payments and the share of employees who received them were once again highest in sectors in which the government has a substantial ownership share and have the highest average wages anyway (mining, electricity, gas and water supply, and in financial and insurance activities). Consumer prices increased by 2.2% in 2010 (HICP), the same as in the euro area. Relatively modest price growth mainly reflected weak economic activity, which influenced moderate core inflation, but the greatest contribution to growth came from higher excise duties and other taxes, and higher energy prices. Strong growth in global commodity and food prices in 2010 started to pass through along the food supply chain towards the end of the year, but was, with the exception of fresh vegetables and fruits, not yet reflected in retail prices. The extent of the pass-through of higher prices from the international environment remains uncertain, as the current macroeconomic conditions allow for less leeway in raising retail prices than in 2007 and 2008; in addition, the concentration rate in the retail sector has declined somewhat in recent years. In 2010, total net flows of credit amounted to EUR 1,085.8m, which is more than one fifth higher than in 2009, but the entire growth was due to stronger household borrowing, and also, to a lesser extent, government borrowing. In December, enterprises and NFIs recorded net repayments again, and for the first time last year, in an amount exceeding the total net borrowings by households and the government. Slovenia is among the few euro area countries where lending to enterprises and NFI deteriorated further relative to 2009. After net borrowing in the first half of the year, enterprises and NFIs net repaid loans with domestic banks in the second half of the year, in the total amount of almost EUR 450 m. In the year as a whole, net repayments amounted to EUR 126.8 m. On the other hand, net flows of household loans were more than half higher in 2010 than in 2009, totalling EUR 884.7 m, as a result of borrowing in the form of housing loans (EUR 912 m), which was more than one quarter higher than the highest level to date recorded in 2008. In December, banks intensified the creation of impairments and provisions, as expected; they recorded the highest level ever, EUR 168.6 m, totalling EUR 757.3 m in the year as a whole, more than half more than a year earlier. According to the consolidated balance of the MF, general government revenue amounted to EUR 11.6 bn and expenditure to EUR 13.5 bn in the first ten months of 2010. The deficit totalled EUR 1.8 bn. Revenue remained unchanged y-o-y in that period, while expenditure increased by 2.8%. All categories of general government expenditure were up y-o-y, except expenditure on capital transfers (-18.1%), with interest payments recording the highest growth (46.3%). In 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 0.9% compared with the previous year; payments amounted to EUR 13.1 bn. Higher than in the previous year were particularly revenues from taxes and contributions related to wages (due to a higher wage bill) and consumption (base effect), while revenues from income-related taxes declined, to a great extent due to poor business results in 2009 and final tax assessments, but also as a result of statutory changes. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment In January, the IMF revised upwards its forecast for this year's economic growth, stating that in the second half of 2010, activity in advanced economies moderated less than expected and economic growth in emerging countries remained strong. Expectations for this year's economic growth therefore slightly improved, but risks to the recovery remain elevated. The outlook for growth improved particularly for the United States, largely due to the additional stimulus package by the Fed and tax cut extension, and in Germany. Key downside risks for economic growth in the euro area stem from the possible spreading of the sovereign debt crisis, in the United States, from the lack of a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, and in emerging economies, from overheating and inflation. Table 1: New IMF forecasts 2009 2010 2011 (autumn forecast) 2011 (new forecast) World -0.6 5.0 4.2 4.4 EU -4.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 EMU -4.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 Germany -4.7 3.6 2.0 2.2 France -2.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 Italy -5.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 United Kingdom -4.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 US -2.6 2.8 2.3 3.0 Russia -7.9 3.7 4.3 4.5 China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.6 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2011. Short-term indicators of economic activity for November confirm that the economic recovery in the euro area continued at the end of 2010. The volume of industrial Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area - Industrial production in manufacturing - New orders in manufacturing -Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade production in the euro area increased 1.2% in November and was 7.4% higher y-o-y. The further recovery of industrial production is indicated by renewed growth in new orders in industry (2.1% in November). The values of various confidence indicators keep improving, especially the expectations regarding business operations in the coming months. Turnover growth in retail trade eased further in November. Construction output is still declining and fell to the lowest level since February 2010 when construction activity in the euro area came to a standstill due to the severe winter. Germany's GDP grew by 3.6% in 2010, the most since the unification, and the forecasts for this year's GDP growth are consequently higher than in the autumn. According to various German institutions (central bank, Ifo, Deutsche Bank), the consistent implementation of structural reforms in the last decade (tax reform, labour-market and pension-system reforms) was the main factor behind the relatively fast recovery of Germany's economy last year. The recovery was mainly driven by growth in exports, which also favourably impacted domestic, particularly investment, demand. German exports successfully adjusted to the new global market conditions and took advantage of vigorous demand in emerging Asian economies. Last year exports thus almost made up for the 2009 decline, but will grow slower this year, consistent with the moderation of growth in global trade. After a remarkable drop in 2009, investment in machinery and equipment also recovered last year, largely due to companies replacing their old production facilities. With interest rates remaining low and with a relatively satisfactory financial situation of companies, investment is expected to see further growth this year in both machinery and construction and be the main driver of this year's economic growth. Private consumption is also set to expand this year, amid higher employment and a gradual increase in the number of hours worked, Figure 2: Expenditure structure of GDP growth in Germany Private consumption ^■Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories and valuables Surplus with the rest of the world -GDP real growth (right axis) 4 2 .SŽ iS 1 o 0 -2 -3 ^^ -4 -5 -6 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 2008 2009 Source: Destatis. 3 2007 2010 which favourably impacts disposable income. Change in inventories is expected to make a negative contribution to economic growth this year, after the relatively large positive contribution in 2010. At the beginning of 2011, economic growth will be slowed by fiscal consolidation. German institutions thus predict 2.0%-2.5% GDP growth for this year, an approximately 0.5 p.p. higher figure than in the autumn. Positive signals are also coming from several sentiment indicators (Ifo, ZEW, Gfk, PMI), which have already reached or even exceeded the pre-crisis levels of 2008. Box 1: Commodity prices on international markets Commodity prices on global markets increased significantly in 2010, similarly as in 2007 and 2008. In December 2010, the IMF commodity price index (expressed in USD) was 23.4% higher y-o-y, with the highest growth recorded for prices of agricultural commodities (34.5%), industrial commodities (31.3%) and food (26.8%). Prices of non-fuel commodities thus reached the highest levels ever. Oil prices, which ranged between USD 70 and USD 90 a barrel last year, were 22.8% higher y-o-y in December. Last year's rises of primary commodity and metal prices were mainly attributable to global economic recovery and increased demand from certain emerging economies, particularly China. China's consumption accounted for around 41% of the global consumption of primary commodities, according to the IMF data, with demand for primary commodities increasing by 17% a year, on average, in recent years. The IMF and World Bank point to high commodity prices as one of the greatest downside risks to the continuation of global economic recovery this year. Last year, prices in euros increased more than they had in 2007 and 2008, as the euro depreciated against the US dollar, which is used as the basis for setting commodity prices in world markets. Food prices in world markets hit all-time highs in December 2010. Food prices started to soar in June last year. According to FAO, cereal prices rose by 57%, on average, between June and December last year, oilseed prices by 56%, and prices of sugar by as much as 77%. Prices of wheat, maize, sugar and certain oilseeds are even higher than in 2008. The sharp increases in the second half of 2010 were mainly due to the impact of weather conditions on the supply. Low interest rates and the lack in investment opportunities amid high liquidity in financial markets represent a risk that prices will continue to rise. In the long term, however, the key reason for higher food prices is structural factors on the side of both supply and demand. Demand for food is growing due to rising income, particularly in emerging economies, and global population growth, while supply cannot keep pace due to the limited availability of suitable agricultural land. Oil price rises also play an important role, being passed on to prices of agricultural commodities, especially fodder and fertilisers; higher oil prices also translate into higher demand for biofuels, which in turn contributes to higher prices of commodities suitable for biofuel production (maize, soy, palm oil). These structural factors will contribute to further commodity price rises in the coming years, according to FAO, while we can also expect extreme short-term price rises as a result of supply shocks due to the weather as seen in the second half of last year. Figure 3: Commodity price index in EUR and USD and USD/EUR exchange rate -HWWI Index of World Market Prices of Non-Energy Commodities (In EUR) -----IMF Index of World Market Prices of Non-Energy Commodities (in USD) • Exchange rate USD/EUR (right axis) 200 180 160 140 Jn 120 X cu ■D 100 80 60 40 ........... / V ............t' / i J V h v r. v r N v V^'tfi fU fu fu fu Source: HWWI, IMF, ECB. 1.5 1.4 1.3 ^ cc 3 1.2 1.1 == 1.0 0.9 0.8 Figure4: FAO Food Price Index (in USD)1 400 -Food Price Index (24.6) --------Meat price index (18.4) 350 -Dairy Price Index (-3.4) ---Cereal Price Index (38.8) ---Oil/Fats Price Index (55.3) ---------Sugar Price Index (19.3) 100 i Source: FAO. 'In brackets, y-o-y index growth, December 2010. 1.6 50 The lending conditions for enterprises in the euro area did not tighten in the last quarter of 2010 for the first time in three years. According to the ECB survey, lending conditions did not deteriorate in the last quarter of the year, as the number of banks that reported a tightening was equal to the number of those reporting an easing, which was mainly due to a decline in risk perception. Corporate demand for loans keeps increasing, particularly for long-term loans, and for the first time in two years, the need for financing fixed assets was among the main reasons for taking a loan. Banks are, on the other hand, tightening their credit standards for loans to households (11%), particularly housing loans, where demand has surged. The main reasons for tighter lending conditions for households are uncertainty regarding the economic situation (also high unemployment, which has yet to decline) and the situation in the real estate market, which remains tough in a number of euro area countries. For the first quarter of this year, banks expect a slight deterioration of the lending conditions for enterprises and households again, while the demand for loans will increase further, for all types and maturities. Figure 5: ECB survey on lending conditions in the euro area Lend. conditions for enterprises in the past 3 months (left axis) -Lend. conditions for enterprises in the next 3 months (left axis) -Corporate loan demand in the next 3 months (right axis) 70 Figure 6: Yields on ten-year government bonds 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1=1? !t= Ai t ' ' * - Ireland • Greece ' "Spain i.....................^...........h-y-k- Vl' -Portugal [""V \ j,' -Slovenia ^.................................jt" S5 . 5 j^jl 4 Si 3 • ...........1 J' m ■ w V I/ Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. a Source: ECB. the previous month, 1.017%, 34 basis points more than in January last year. The value of the three-month LIBOR is hovering at around 0.3% for the third month in a row. January saw a stable value of the euro relative to the US dollar. The average exchange rate of the euro appreciated slightly in January, by 1.0%, to USD 1.3360 for EUR 1, but was 6.4% lower y-o-y. Slightly higher relative to the euro were also the values of the British pound sterling (up 0.2%, to GBP 0.8471 for EUR 1) and Swiss franc (up 0.2%, to CHF 1.2779 for EUR 1), while the Japanese yen depreciated somewhat (by 0.3%, to JPY 110.38 for EUR 1). Prices of Brent crude oil came close to USD 100 a barrel in January. The average price of Brent crude oil rose by 5.4%, to USD 96.4 a barrel (in EUR, by 4.3%, to EUR 72.6 a barrel). Oil prices in USD were 26.5% higher y-o-y (oil prices in EUR 34.5%). In January, the IEA also raised the oil demand forecasts for 2011, warning, similar to the IMF, that keeping oil prices at the current, relatively high, level might seriously jeopardise the further recovery of the global economy. The IMF expects oil price to total USD 89.5 a barrel, on average, in 2011. The yield spreads between ten-year government bonds of the most exposed euro area countries and Germany remained high in January, despite relatively successful issues of bonds. In January, many of the most vulnerable euro area members relatively successfully issued new bonds (Portugal, Greece, Italy, Spain). The spreads between the yields of their and German bonds, which had still been rising at the beginning of the month, therefore declined. The European Financial Stability Facility also successfully issued its first bond in January, which contributed to the current stabilisation of the situation on financial markets. Interbank interest rates declined somewhat in January and remained much below the long-term averages. The value of the three-month EURIBOR remained similar to that in Economic activity in Slovenia The values of most short-term indicators of economic activity increased in November, after the slowdown of growth in the autumn months. After a large increase in the first half of the year and a slowdown in the autumn, merchandise exports (nominal) and production volume in manufacturing expanded in November, seasonally adjusted. In the first eleven months of 2010, they were up 13.3% and 6.5% y-o-y, respectively, though still below the average level of the pre-crisis year 2008. The value of construction put in place also rose slightly in November, but remained low. Real turnover in retail trade and nominal turnover in accommodation and food service 10 9 8 7 6 2 0 Figure 7: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity -Merchandise exports (nom.) -Industrial production in manufacturing ---------Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade ---------Turnover in hotels and restaurants (nom.) —"— Turnover in wholesale (nom.) 110 Ei 105 Ji ,„100 (U 95 S^' 90 "Ö t^ 12 80 t 80 70 65 60 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. activities remained roughly at the previous month's level in November, while nominal turnover in wholesale declined. Merchandise exports' increased in November, after two months of stagnation (seasonally adjusted by 1.5%), while merchandise imports maintained October's level, after growing for several months. Merchandise exports were up 14.5% y-o-y in nominal terms in November, and 13.3% in the first eleven months of the year, largely on account of greater volume. Despite relatively strong growth, November's exports were still below the average level of exports in the pre-crisis year 2008. Merchandise imports were 17.5% higher y-o-y in nominal terms in November, and 14.1% in the first eleven months of 2010, largely under Figure 8: Merchandise trade — Merchandise exports 2,100 -Merchandise imports Source:SORS; calculations by IMAD. the impact of higher import price rises (higher prices of oil and other primary commodities). With import prices growing much faster (7.1%) than export prices (2.0%), the terms of merchandise trade deteriorated by as much as 4.8% y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2010.2 Services trade is still growing at a much slower rate than merchandise trade, but the total value of services exports and imports was significantly affected by the change in data on trade in travel services for 2010.3 According to November's release of the balance of payment data, the value of travel services exports in the first ten months of 2010 is as much as EUR 158.7 m lower and the value of travel services imports EUR 69.3 m lower than the figures released in October. According to November's data, exports of services were only 0.7% higher y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2010 (instead of 4.7%, as according to October's data), with the greatest contribution to growth coming from higher exports of transport, particularly road and rail transport services. Exports of the group of all other services also contributed some, except construction services, which have been on a constant decline ever since the beginning of the recession. Imports of services were up 3.2% y-o-y in nominal terms in the first eleven months of 2010 (4.5% according to October's data), with growth being mainly driven by imports of licences, patents and copyrights, and imports of maritime services. Figure 9: Trade in travel services before and after the change of data ---------Exports of travel services (balance of payments release Jan.-Oct.) -Exports of travel services (balance of payments release Jan.-Nov.) ---------Imports of travel services (balance of payments release Jan.-Oct.) -Imports of travel services (balance of payments release Jan.-Nov.) Source: BS. 1 According to the external trade statistics. 2 Based on the index of export producer prices on the foreign market and the index of import prices used as a source of data in the national accounts statistics 3 Due to newly calculated (lower) values of exports/imports of travel services as a result of new data on overnight stays and the average consumption of tourists, the BS decided to revise the balance of payments (the previous revision had been made in August last year). November's balance of payments already includes the new calculations for 2010 while the new figures for 2009 and 2008 are not yet taken into account. Comparisons between these periods are therefore not adequate. Other items (transport services and the group of other services), where the BS only updated the sources of data, underwent no noticeable change. 55 Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2009/ 2008 XI 10/ X 10 XI 10/ XI 09 I-XI 10/ I-XI 09 Exports1 -18.4 -0.1 12.6 10.5 -goods -19.4 2.0 14.6 13.1 -services -14.7 -9.7 3.6 0.7 Imports1 -23.6 1.6 16.2 12.5 -goods -25.7 1.4 17.1 14.2 -services -10.2 2.8 10.0 3.2 Industrial production -17.4 1.22 5.33 6.13 -manufacturing -18.7 1.42 6.13 6.53 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 0.92 -16.03 -17.23 Real turnover in retail trade -10.5 0.12 3.53 -0.33 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants -7.8 -0.12 5.83 2.63 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments s ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Production volume in manufacturing strengthened once again in November, also due to the least technologically intensive industries. In the second half of the year, high-and medium-high-technology industries witnessed more modest y-o-y growth than in than the first, as a result of the expected slowdown in certain sectors (the car industry). In medium-low-technology industries, production growth was higher in the second half of the year than in the first, largely due to more export-oriented sectors. In the first eleven months, both industry groups exceeded their production levels of the same period of 2009. Production volumes in low-technology industries, on the other hand, did not exceed the 2009 levels in the first eleven months of 2010, despite November's strong y-o-y growth (10.5%). Figure 10: Production in manufacturing according to technology intensity 110 105 100 - High-and medium-high-technology-intensive industries - Medium-low-technology-intensive industries Low-technology-intensive industries 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 Data on quarterly business trends show that insufficient demand remains the main limiting factor in the manufacturing sector at the beginning of this year. Estimates of foreign and domestic demand deteriorated in the first quarter of this year, but remain below 2009 levels. The pick-up in demand in 2010 (revenues from sales were up 7.8% y-o-y in the first eleven months, new orders 13.4%) led to higher capacity utilisation, which remained at the previous quarter's level in the first quarter of this year (78.9%). The quarterly indicator of new orders otherwise declined, as fewer enterprises than in the previous quarter estimated that the volume of new orders had increased in the last three months of the year. Monthly indicators of total and export orders and indicators of expected exports improved, according to the January data, as did other prospects for the next three months (particularly regarding production). Among the factors limiting production, outstanding obligations should be pointed out, as well as financial difficulties faced by a quarter of enterprises surveyed, also as a result of the tightened situation in financial markets and the lack of payment discipline. The share of enterprises citing uncertain economic conditions and unclear regulations among the factors limiting production also increased. Figure 11: Selected limiting factors in manufacturing Insufficient domestic demand - Insufficient foreign demand - Uncertain economic conditions - Financial problems - Problems with unpaid bills a a Source: SORS. Construction activity strengthened to some extent in November, but remained low. In November, the value of construction put in place was up 0.9% from October, according to seasonally adjusted data, but down 16.0% y-o-y. Non-residential construction activity plummeted in November (-13.2%), hitting the lowest level since the crisis began. The value of residential construction works also declined4 (-3.4%). In contrast, the value of civil-engineering works rose, exceeding by 10.5% the level of October, which was the lowest since the beginning of Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Data for the pharm. industry are IMAD's estimates. 4 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, by our estimates. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 the crisis. The value of new contracts remains low as well. It increased by 0.8% in November and was 7.8% higher y-o-y. In the first eleven months of last year, the total value of new contracts was 5.4% lower than in the comparable period of 2009, when it had fallen by more than 20%. Figure 12: Value of construction put in place -Residential buildings -----Non-residential buildings -Civil engineering works Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In the first three quarters of 2010, the volume of road freight transport was slightly higher than in the same period of the pre-crisis year2008 while rail transport is gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. In the second and third quarters, rail transport increased by as much as one third y-o-y, largely due to a low base and partly as a result of a foreign rail carrier entering Slovenia's market last year. Road transport rose by a tenth in the same period. Almost all rail and road transport growth in the third quarter can be attributed to the increase of international transport, which was, y-o-y, 41.8% higher in transport by rail and 13.7% higher Figure 13: Road and rail freight transport 40 30 ■ -10 - Road freight transport - Railway freight transport in transport by road. Looking at national transport, the volume of rail transport increased but marginally (1.4%) while the volume of road freight transport declined by 7.5% under the impact of the continuing crisis in the construction sector. In the first three quarters of 2010, rail freight transport still recorded a 6.3% lower volume than in the same period of the pre-crisis year 2008 while the volume of road freight transport increased by 1.0%. In the first eleven months of 2010, maritime and harbour transport increased by 12.1% and 6.3%, respectively, with the volume of the former already being greater than before the crisis. The volume of public passenger transport is declining further: Intercity bus transport declined by 5.9% and city passenger transport by 1.3% y-o-y in the first eleven months (rail transport after nine months -1.7%). Air passenger traffic was up 2.7% y-o-y n the same period while airport traffic went down by 3.0%. November saw further turnover growth in the sale of motor vehicles. Turnover in retail trade remained at a similar level as in the previous month, while turnover in wholesale trade declined (seasonally adjusted). November saw further turnover growth in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, where turnover has been increasing since mid-2009. After a relatively strong increase in the first half of last year, nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined in the summer and remained at approximately the same level, with fluctuations in the autumn months. After growing or maintaining the same level in the autumn, turnover in retail trade rose somewhat above the levels recorded since mid-2009. Regarding turnover in retail trade, November recorded no major changes in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products, which had remained similar to the 2005 average since mid-2009. Turnover in the sale of non-food products, which had persisted at the lowest value since the end of 2009, dropped further in the autumn months, particularly in the stores selling furniture, household appliances and construction material, and in the sale of textile, clothing and leather Figure 14: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade -----Automotive fuel -----Wholesale,retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcyc. -Wholesale O O Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 20 10 0 products. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels, which had started to increase at the end of 2009 with renewed growth in the volume of road freight transport, declined in the third quarter of 2010, but was up once again in October and November. After growing in previous months, nominal turnover in accommodation and food services remained at October's level in November. After declining since the end of 2008 and throughout 2009, turnover in accommodation and food services increased in 2010, but still lagged behind the 2008 level at the end of the year. Relative to the year 2009, it was 5.1% higher in nominal terms in November and up 2.6% in eleven months as a whole. Household consumption continued to stagnate at the end of last year and at the beginning of 2011. January saw a further y-o-y decline in new passenger car registrations, which had begun in the middle of the previous year. Consumer confidence remained at December's level in January. Consumers expect a further deterioration of the economic situation and higher unemployment in the future, but find it somewhat more likely that they will be able to save some money. Owing to Christmas bonuses and the structural impact, the net wage bill was 0.9% higher y-o-y in real terms in December. Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels remained at October's level in November. The preliminary data for December also indicate a turnover decline. In December households also net repaid consumer loans. Figure 15: Household consumption indicators Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) ----Consumer conf dence indicator, original value (right axis) 20 The seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator rose marginally in January relative to December and was 3 p.p. higher y-o-y. The confidence indicator in manufacturing improved significantly. The value of the confidence indicator in services was also slightly higher, while the confidence indicator in retail trade declined. The values of the confidence indicator in construction and the consumer confidence indicator remained unchanged. Figure 16: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Service act. Labour market Formal employment continued to drop in November. The number of persons in formal employment declined by 2,119 compared with October (the seasonally adjusted rate of decline remained the same as in October, -0.3%), and 16,610 y-o-y (-2.0%). Broken down by activities, the number of employed persons continues to drop particularly in construction. It also declined relative to the previous month in manufacturing and distributive trade. The number of employed men declined (-2,124), to a great extent due to the crisis in construction, while the number of employed women rose minimally. The numbers of vacancies and new hires continued to fall in December for seasonal reasons, but were higher than in December 2009. Figure 17: Employed and registered unemployed persons -Persons in employment (left axis) gistered unemployed (right axis) 90 ?§ 85 85 ji 110 70 Table 3: Persons in employment by activity Number in '000 Change in number 2009 X 09 IX 10 X10 2009/ 2008 X 10/ IX 10 X 10/ X 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 37.8 33.3 33.3 -1,802 30 -4,501 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 -269 -10 -249 C Manufacturing 199.8 192.1 188.4 187.9 -22,539 -517 -4,188 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 226 8 -41 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.2 200 -69 127 F Constrution 86.8 85.2 77.1 75.8 -1,169 -1,291 -9,334 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 113.9 111.2 110.8 -1,161 -382 -3,083 H Transportation and storage 49.8 49.2 47.7 47.7 -1,417 22 -1,410 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 33.9 32.9 32.6 210 -218 -1,253 J Information and communication 22.5 22.5 22.8 22.8 609 15 319 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.2 24.5 24.4 236 -18 242 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 195 -17 -19 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 45.8 47.6 47.8 1,960 167 2,058 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 26.1 27.0 26.8 -444 -255 705 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.7 52.0 52.0 555 -17 285 P Education 61.7 62.7 64.4 64.7 1,679 362 2,057 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 52.2 53.6 53.8 1,087 189 1,520 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 249 -31 71 S Other service activities 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.5 474 -64 72 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services -producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 35 -23 12 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The monthly increase in the number of registered unemployed5 in December was the largest in 2010. Registered unemployment increased more than it usually does in this time of the year6 and 110,021 persons were unemployed at the end of the month, 6,190 more than in November and 13,349 (13.8%) more than a year before. Unemployment has been rising almost without interruption since as early as June 2008, according to seasonally adjusted data (by a further 3.7% in December). Altogether 14,846 persons registered as unemployed in December, the largest monthly inflow in 2010, which was due to an increase in the number of persons who had lost their jobs (5,003 more than in the previous month). The number of first-time job-seekers declined once again for seasonal reasons. The most of the persons who became unemployed had lost their jobs due to the termination of temporary employment contracts and for business reasons or due to compulsory settlements. The outflow from the unemployment register (8,656 persons) declined relative to the previous month also in December. The number of unemployed persons who found jobs declined for seasonal reasons. At the y-o-y level it remained higher (by 20.1%). Figure 18: Inflow into unemployment due to job loss, by reason -----Expiry of temporary employment contracts ----Written statement -Bankruptcy ---------Winding up of businesses -----Business reasons, compulsory settlements -Worker's incompetence 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 5 For an overview of registered unemployment in 2010 see the Selected Topic, p. 31. 6 One of the reasons for the increase in registered unemployment is the expected pension reform and the new Labour Market Regulation Act, which have most likely contributed to the increase in the number of unemployed persons over 50 (according to EES data, this age group accounted for 50.3% of December's inflow) and the extraordinary increase in the number of persons who lost work due to incompetence. The unemployment rate increased in November, as expected, totalling 11.1%. The unemployment rate was 0.2 p.p. higher compared with October. The male unemployment rate increased by 0.3 p.p., while the female unemployment rate declined slightly. With regard to the exceptional unemployment increase in December, the unemployment rate will continue to rise. 0 Box 2: 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses ■ Average gross amount of extraordinary payments*, in EUR (right axis) -Monthly growth of the gross wage per employee, in % (left axis) Share of employees who received extraordinary payments, in % (left axis) 900 November's total amount of extraordinary year-end payments, Figure 19: November's extraordinary payments and most of which (around three quarters) are usually disbursed wage growth together with regular wages just in that month, was higher than in November2009. November's wage growth is typically marked by extraordinary payments such as Christmas bonuses1 and 13'h month payments,2 which should reflect company performance in the current year. Last year's total amount of November's extraordinary payments (EUR 84.1 m) was higher than that in 2009 but one third lower than the record amount in the economically most successful year 2007. The gross amount of payments averaged EUR 712 (EUR 683 in 2009) and the share of employees who received extraordinary payments was similar (17.8%) to that in 2009 (18.1%). 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 The level of average payments and the share of employees who receive them have always been the highest in sectors which have the highest average wages anyway and in which the government has a substantial ownership share. Wage growth thus tends to be exceptionally high in November (33% last year, on average), particularly in electricity, water and gas supply, financial and insurance activities and mining.3 In these activities, the shares of employees that receive extraordinary year-end payments are among the highest, and so are the average payments. As many as 91.2% employees in electricity, gas and steam supply thus received Christmas bonuses in November last year, in the average gross amount of EUR 1,044 (Christmas bonuses Table 4: November's extraordinary payments by activity, 2008-2010* Source: SORS. Note: * For employees who received extraordinary payments. Activity Gross extraordinary payments for employees who received extraordinary payments, in EUR Share of employees who received extraordinary payments, in % Total amount of extraordinary payments, in EUR m 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL 697,58 682,93 712,30 19,9 18,1 17,8 98,251 83,108 84,120 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.323,39 968,54 1.043,50 83,0 74,2 91,2 8,375 5,653 7,455 B Mining and quarrying 148,78 773,40 866,09 56,6 59,6 50,9 0,285 1,442 1,274 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 865,44 776,17 756,98 42,4 47,1 50,6 3,101 3,101 3,272 K Financial and insurance activities 1.331,02 1.009,76 1.197,20 56,9 62,8 41,3 17,880 14,567 11,431 H Transportation and storage 528,00 625,45 748,08 53,5 32,4 29,3 10,637 7,236 7,607 J Information and communication 1.020,06 760,43 1.024,06 29,8 29,8 27,2 6,195 4,569 5,588 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 729,21 590,19 523,29 24,1 28,8 26,2 0,751 0,699 0,553 C Manufacturing 517,62 646,97 673,63 25,0 20,5 22,1 25,166 22,408 24,696 N Administrative and support service activities 300,68 275,85 259,27 21,4 14,4 20,3 1,572 0,918 1,259 L Real estate activities 991,40 969,00 986,73 19,5 21,2 18,7 0,732 0,776 0,702 Q Human health and social work activities n.p. 348,11 109,82 n.p. 5,2 15,9 n.p. 0,837 0,827 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.010,15 993,81 1.057,72 17,1 16,4 15,8 5,766 5,552 5,894 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 332,18 582,36 472,02 15,9 8,1 14,3 0,526 0,473 0,672 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 673,92 662,99 899,28 16,7 14,5 10,5 11,112 9,193 8,769 P Education n.p. 39,63 100,76 n.p. 9,1 9,5 n.p. 0,216 0,587 S Other service activities 1.287,78 1.409,78 1.162,57 8,9 8,3 9,2 0,622 0,627 0,575 I Accommodation and food service activities 620,34 542,40 586,41 7,8 12,9 8,5 0,971 1,399 0,969 F Constrution 576,06 632,83 660,00 13,8 10,3 6,7 4,629 3,419 2,053 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security N/A. 133,10 64,06 n.p. 3,6 3,2 n.p. 0,242 0,104 Source: SORS. Note: * Because of changes in the classification of activities, data at the level of activities are not comparable with the period before 2008 and are therefore not stated. 1 Usually paid to all employees in an equal amount. 2 Depending on an individual's work performance. 3 With the exception of water supply, these are activities that boast the highest average wages while wages in water supply are higher than the average wage in the private sector. were higher in only three activities). The share of employees that received Christmas bonuses, surprisingly, even increased relative to the previous two years, which was, apart from these activities, only the case in water supply while everywhere else the shares declined or remained practically the same. Such divergence from the average is surprising, given that, with the exception of financial activities, these are activities where the government (which otherwise committed itself to saving in the area of wages) has a substantial ownership share. The share of employees who received extraordinary year-end payments in financial activities has declined significantly over the last years (72.6% of employees in 2007, 41.3% in 2010), but the average amounts of payments have been adjusted to the crisis to a much lesser extent. The shares of employees that received extraordinary payments were the lowest in construction and accommodation and food service activities (only 8.5% and 6.7% last year, respectively), which also have the lowest levels of the average wage. The average amounts of payments in these activities were also below average. In the manufacturing industries, which employ more than one third of all private sectors employees, EUR 24.7 m (just below 30% of the total amount of extraordinary payments) was disbursed with November's wage. Just over 22% of employees received slightly below-average amounts of payments. The share and the average amount were somewhat higher than in the previous year. Relative to 2007, the amount was nearly one tenth higher, but the share of employees that received the payments was 8.5 p.p. lower. November's high growth in the average gross wage per employee (9.9% in nominal terms) was due to 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses disbursed in the private sector at the end of the year. The average gross wage in the private sector rose by as much as 13.7% in nominal terms in November, largely due to extraordinary year-end payments, but also to the relatively high growth of the basic wage. The gross wage increased more than in the comparable periods of 2008 and 2009 and only 5.0 p.p. less than in 2007 when extraordinary payments had been the highest ever, and in some activities, payments were fully comparable to those before the crisis. The strongest growth was recorded in electricity supply, mining, water supply and financial and insurance activities. In the first eleven months, y-o-y wage growth in the private sector was much higher (5.2%) than the same period of 2009, chiefly due to the increase in minimum wage. In the public sector, the average gross wage kept growing at a modest pace in November (1.0%). Wages only rose more noticeably in arts, entertainment and recreation, as the majority of persons in this activity are employed in the private sector and also received extraordinary payments at the end of the year. As in the private sector, the bulk of November's gross wage rise came from payments in arrears and extraordinary payments, but their contribution to growth was substantially lower than in the private sector. In the first eleven months of last year, the total average gross wage increased slightly more y-o-y (4.0%) than expected but only as a result of wage rises in the private sector. Table 5: Wages by activities Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2009 XI 2010 2009/ 2008 XI 10/ X 10 XI 10/ XI 09 I-XI 10/ I-XI 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,198.03 1,450.64 -0.2 14.2 5.9 5.4 B Mining and quarrying 1,831.20 2,372.68 0.9 33.3 0.8 2.8 C Manufacturing 1,203.38 1,476.37 0.8 13.5 8.3 9.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,020.95 2,965.76 3.8 49.9 13.0 4.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,413.04 1,827.18 2.0 31.1 3.3 2.3 F Constrution 1,160.16 1,295.18 1.0 5.4 5.6 4.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,277.51 1,440.36 1.9 8.1 4.5 3.8 H Transportation and storage 1,393.16 1,639.71 0.7 16.5 4.0 1.9 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,032.97 1,137.45 1.6 5.4 4.1 4.0 J Information and communication 2,038.65 2,348.27 1.4 14.8 5.9 2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2,122.72 2,654.62 -0.7 28.4 -4.6 1.0 L Real estate activities 1,435.09 1,695.53 1.9 16.3 2.3 3.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,737.98 1,937.25 2.1 11.4 1.4 1.6 N Administrative and support service activities 914.93 1,019.71 1.8 5.9 5.7 4.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,788.30 1,790.97 5.9 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 P Education 1,719.27 1,754.16 3.6 1.6 1.2 0.7 Q Human health and social work activities 1,752.78 1,755.99 12.0 0.8 0.0 -0.3 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,723.15 1,789.26 3.9 3.7 0.0 0.7 S Other service activities 1,340.92 1,513.74 1.3 8.4 3.7 4.5 Figure 20: Level and breakdown of the growth of the gross wage per employee Payments in arrears* (right axis) Wage excluding payments in arrears (right axis) -Gross wage total -Private sector -----Public sector ---------Monthly growth of gross wage (right axis) Figure 21: Measured and core inflation (HICP) .fD Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * In November, the bulk of these payments came from 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses. Table 6: Labour market indicators in % 2009/ 2008 XI 10/ X 10 XI 10/ XI 09 I-XI 10/ I-XI 09 Labour force 0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -0.9 Persons in formal employment -2.4 -0.3 -2.0 -2.7 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.8 -0.3 -1.7 -2.6 Registered unemployed 36.6 1.1 8.8 16.7 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 9.9 4.1 4.0 - private sector 1.8 13.7 5.3 5.2 - public sector 6.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 2009 XI 09 X 10 XI 10 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 9.1 10.1 10.9 11.1 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438.96 1,570.53 1,487.86 1,634.48 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338.77 1,509.03 1,397.67 1,588.83 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.82 1,757.25 1,750.61 1,767.76 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Prices Consumer prices measured by the HICP7 increased by 2.2%8 in 2010, the same figure as in the euro area. Relatively modest price growth was mainly a result of weak economic activity, which influenced moderate core inflation, and certain one-off factors related to changes in taxation and higher prices of energy. Data on January's inflation are always released with a delay, due to changes in the consumer price index made every year by SORS.9 7 The HICP (harmonised index of consumer prices) is used for comparisons between consumer price movements in the euro area. 8 Inflation in 2010 measured by the CPI totalled 1.9%. HICP -Slovenia HICP core inflation - Slovenia HICP -Euro area HICP core inflation - Euro area Source: Eurostat. Rises of global commodity and food prices in 2010 started to be passed through along the food-supply chain towards the end of the year, but were not yet reflected in retail prices. Prices of oil, food and other commodities in world markets increased significantly in the second half of last year (see Box 1), which led to higher costs of agricultural producers. In the euro area as a whole, some of these costs have already been passed on to the food-processing industry. Eurostat figures show that in the euro area, prices in the manufacture of food increased 4.2% in November10 last year, and in Slovenia, 1.3% in the year 2010 as a whole. A survey of the manufacture of food products in the euro Figure 22: IMF food price index and index of Slovenian agricultural producer prices 170 -Index of agricultural producer prices In Slovenia (excluding wine)* -IMF food price index (EUR) Sources: SORS, IMF. Note: * Wine is not included in the IMF food price index. Given the high weight it has in the Slovenian index of agricultural products, we excluded it from our calculations. 9 Besides the usual changes in the CPI (weight system, updating the list of products and services and points of sale), SORS will also introduced methodological changes in monitoring seasonal products this year. The data will be released on 9 February 2010. 10 The latest available data. 10 8 6 4 2 0 Table 7: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - the first twelve months of 2010 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 2.2 100.0 2.2 2.2 100.0 2.2 Goods 2.9 58.0 1.7 3.3 66.2 2.2 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 1.5 11.9 0.2 3.2 14.8 0.5 Non-processed food 3.2 7.3 0.2 5.1 6.9 0.3 Non-energy industrial goods 0.7 29.3 0.2 -1.4 30.7 -0.4 Durables 0.3 9.5 0.0 -4.7 11.5 -0.5 Non-durables 1.1 8.3 0.1 0.9 8.8 0.1 Semi-durables 0.8 11.5 0.1 0.4 10.3 0.0 Energy 11.0 9.6 1.1 12.6 13.9 1.7 Electricity for households 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.9 2.6 0.2 Natural gas 8.2 1.5 0.1 19.1 0.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 26.9 0.8 0.2 28.0 1.5 0.4 Solid fuels 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 1.0 0.0 District heating 0.4 0.5 0.0 12.2 0.8 0.1 Fuels and lubricants 15.3 4.2 0.6 12.5 7.2 0.9 Services 1.3 42.0 0.5 0.1 33.8 0.0 Services - dwellings 1.7 10.2 0.2 4.8 2.7 0.1 Services - transport 1.7 6.6 0.1 1.7 5.2 0.1 Services - communications -0.7 3.3 0.0 3.0 3.4 0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 1.2 14.9 0.2 -3.3 14.3 -0.5 Services - other services 1.4 7.1 0.1 2.5 8.1 0.2 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.1 83.1 0.9 0.1 79.3 0.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification area shows that in November last year, prices increased the most y-o-y in the manufacture of oils and fats (15.6%), bread and cereal products (9.1%) and prepared animal feeds (17.0%), which is a result of higher prices of these commodities on international markets. Prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased the most last year in both Slovenia and the euro area, according to the available consumer price index data (in Slovenia, by 20.9% or 9.9%, respectively, in the euro area, by 9.3% and 3.7%, respectively), which was partly due to the base effect, as these prices had dropped in 2009, but was also already a consequence of the transmission of higher commodity prices in international markets. Growth in other retail prices of food, on the other hand, was still relatively moderate last year. The current commodity price shock from the international environment is similar to those in 2007 and 2008, when higher global prices of commodities started to be passed on to domestic prices of food, first to agricultural producer prices, then to prices in the manufacture of food products and somewhat later also to retail prices of food, accommodation and food services and package holidays. Slovenia experienced a faster and relatively stronger pass-through of prices from the international environment than the euro area, which was due to several reasons, primarily a lower general level of prices, lower efficiency of domestic food-processing industry, high concentration in retail trade and inadequate functioning of regulatory bodies in the area of competition protection. Higher prices from the international environment will also be transmitted to retail food prices this year, but it is still uncertain to what extent. Specifically, the current macroeconomic environment allows for less leeway in raising retail prices than in 2007 and 2008 and the concentration rate in the retail sector has declined in recent years, even though it is still high. Figure 23: Prices of food and food products 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 • IMF -food (EUR) PPI imports -food products + • PPI in Slovenia -food products -----HICP -non-processed food -HICP -processed food Source: ECB, Eurostat, IMF, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Industrial producer prices increased by 3.2% y-o-y in 2010 (2009: -0.7%), import prices by 10.3%. Price rises on the domestic market mainly reflected price growth in the manufacturing sector (4.0%), chiefly in the manufacture of metals and metal products, which follows the price growth of metals in the international environment. Prices in the manufacture of metals increased by 13.0% last year, import prices by 21.9%, which suggests further rises of these prices on the domestic market. Last year also recorded relatively high price rises in the manufacture of chemicals and pharmaceutical preparations and in the manufacture of furniture. Prices in the manufacture of food products increased but marginally last year (1.3%), in contrast to prices of imported food, which rose by 14.6%. Overall, in 2010, prices of imported industrial producer goods increased more than prices of goods produced at home. Price competitiveness improved once again in November under the impact of the decline in the exchange rate of the euro and relative11 producer prices in manufacturing. After the nominal effective exchange rate rose in October due to the appreciation of the euro against most currencies inside and outside the EU, it dropped once again in November largely under the impact of the depreciation of the euro against the GBP and USD. The growth of the real effective exchange rate deflated by the growth of relative consumer prices, which rose somewhat in November after two months of decline, therefore came to a halt. Considering relative producer prices in manufacturing, which fell in November, price competitiveness improved. At the y-o-y level, price competitiveness improved in November and in the first eleven months of last year, mainly as a result of a lower exchange rate of the euro. Figure 24: Nominal and real effective exchange rates .....Real, deflated by CPI -Real, deflated by PPI -Nominal effective exchange rate 114 112 110 108 cB 106 (N 104 102 jZ 100 98 96 94 92 ill . i i i . . : i ! .........../ ' . r'' .............'U...... Vy .. .s.'»', / /M \l V./V Vi jš iš iš Si Si iš iš Si Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments In November 2010 the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments remained at roughly the same level as in October, while in the first eleven months it narrowed y-o-y. The current account recorded a deficit of EUR 68.2 m in November last year (a surplus of EUR 86.9 m in November 2009). In the first eleven months of 2010, the deficit climbed to EUR 398.6 m (EUR 442.9 m in the same period last year). In the first eleven months of last year, the y-o-y narrowing of the current account deficit mainly reflected lower deficits in current transfers and factor incomes, the deterioration of the balance of merchandise trade, and a lower surplus in the services balance.12 In November, the balance of current transfers witnessed a surplus again, but a deficit in the first eleven months of 2010, which was lower y-o-y, in addition to increased net absorption from the EU budget also due to lower payments of taxes and contributions abroad. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes keeps narrowing largely as a result of lower net income from equity capital of direct investment, while total net interest payments declined y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2010, despite higher expenditure in the second half of the year. The deficit in merchandise trade widened y-o-y both in November and in the first eleven months of 2010, among other reasons also due to the deterioration of the terms of trade. The surpluses in the services balance narrowed y-o-y in November and in the first eleven months (largely due to greater deficits in trade in licences, patents and copyrights). Figure 25: Components of the current account balance ^m Trade balance ^m Services balance Factor incomes Current transfers -Current account Source: BS. 11 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 12 With the release of the balance of payments data for January-November 2010, the figures for trade in travel services and, consequently, trade in services were corrected due to the methodological revision. The new figures have been so far only taken into account in the balance of payments for 2010, but not yet in those for 2009 and 2008, which is why y-o-y comparisons are not entirely adequate at this moment (see also note 3). Table 8: Balance of payments I-XI 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-XI 09 Current account 22,611.4 23,010.0 -398.6 -442.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 16,872.8 17,653.6 -780.8 -541.2 - Services 3,955.8 2,976.2 979.6 1,044.0 - Income 816.4 1,375.6 -559.2 -717.3 Current transfers 966.4 1,004.7 -38.3 -228.4 Capital and financial account 3,928.4 -3,532.0 396.4 134.9 - Capital account 275.9 -206.3 69.6 57.9 - Capital transfers 274.6 -202.2 72.4 63.7 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.3 -4.1 -2.7 -5.8 - Financial account 3,652.5 -3,325.7 326.8 77.0 - Direct investment 556.7 -114.5 442.2 -564.6 - Portfolio investment 2,336.2 -562.1 1,774.1 4,233.0 - Financial derivates 14.8 -96.0 -81.2 5.4 - Other investment 712.8 -2,553.1 -1,840.3 -3,763.0 - Assets 184.4 -722.4 -538.0 -597.0 - Liabilities 528.4 -1,830.7 -1,302.3 -3,166.1 - Reserve assets 31.9 0.0 31.9 166.2 Net errors and omissions 2.2 0.0 2.2 308.0 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. International financial transactions recorded a net capital outflow in the amount of EUR 209.0 m in November, and a net capital inflow of EUR 294.9 m in the first eleven months of 2010 (a net outflow of EUR 89.2 m in the same period of 2009). In the first eleven months of 2010, the net capital inflow of the government sector exceeded the net capital outflows of the BS and the private sector. The greatest net capital inflow of the government sector was a result of two bonds issued in the first quarter of 2010, while the flows in other months were weak. The debt of the BS dropped Figure 26: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector Private sector Country ^■Bank of Slovenia -Net financial flow 1500 ■ 1000 -500 for the second year in a row. In the first eleven months, the BS reduced its short-term debt to the Eurosystem by EUR 379.2 m and increased its financial assets by investing in capital market instruments (long-term bonds). The private sector recorded larger transactions by commercial banks, which continue to repay their liabilities to the rest of the world, though to a lesser extent than in the year before. Total net repayments of loans and deposits amounted to EUR 1.3 bn in the first eleven months of 2010 (EUR 2.8 bn in the same period of 2009). After recording a net inflow of foreign direct investment in the form of debt financing between affiliated companies in the period between January and October, Slovenia saw a great inflow of equity capital in November (EUR 232.0 m). The total net inflow thus amounted to EUR 556.7 m in the first eleven months of 2010. November's increase in equity capital was the largest in the past two years and the transaction was due to the purchase of Droga-Kolinska, a food company. Financial markets In December, net corporate and NFI repayments exceeded the total borrowings of households and the government. Total net repayments thus amounted to EUR 24.8 m, as a result of net repayments by enterprises and NFIs. Slovenia is among the few euro area countries where lending to enterprises and NFIs deteriorated relative to 2009. In 2010, total net flows amounted to EUR 1,085.8 m, which is otherwise a more than one fifth higher figure than in 2009, but the entire growth was due to stronger household borrowing, and to a lesser extent also government borrowing. The liquidity of Slovenia's 0 Table 9: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 09 31. XII 10 31. XII 10/31. XI 10 31. XII 10/31. XII 09 31. XII 09/31. XII 08 Loans total 32,444.95 33,530.77 -0.1 3.3 2.8 Enterprises and NFI 23,161.09 23,034.32 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 Government 870.95 1,198.88 4.8 37.7 49.0 Households 8,412.91 9,297.58 0.8 10.5 7.5 Consumer credits 2,899.95 2,833.16 -0.6 -2.3 0.6 Lending for house purchase 3,927.13 4,837.36 2.0 23.2 15.7 Other lending 1,585.84 1,627.05 -0.5 2.6 2.5 Bank deposits total 14,313.07 14,839.56 1.1 3.7 4.6 Overnight deposits 5,655.00 6,200.38 1.3 9.6 7.7 Short-term deposits 5,116.28 4,473.18 -0.3 -12.6 8.5 Long-term deposits 2,874.95 4,156.65 2.4 44.6 46.9 Deposits redeemable at notice 666.84 9.35 -9.0 -98.6 -20.3 Mutual funds 1,856.30 2,048.36 2.9 10.3 22.7 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. banking system remained fairly modest at the end of the year. Banks continued to net repay foreign liabilities; the government withdrew its deposits from the banking sector again, while household deposits strengthened for seasonal reasons. The deterioration of the quality of banks' total assets intensified substantially in November. Figure 27: Net flows and growth in the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors ^^m Households (left axis) ^^ Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) -Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) 40 35 30 25 15 1^ 10 ^^ 5 0 -5 -10 -15 CD ^ ~ C Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of loans in the euro area shrank in December, after the substantial strengthening in November. Net outflows amounted to EUR 25.7 bn, the highest value in 2010. Enterprises and NFIs made net repayments again, while households and the government kept borrowing in a net amount. Non-banking sectors in the euro area borrowed a net EUR 466.0 bn in 2010, nearly 80 times the value recorded in the previous year. This hike mainly came from net borrowing of governments and households, but a positive contribution also came from the otherwise modest net corporate and NFI borrowing, as, contrary to Slovenia, banks strengthened the financing of enterprises and NFIs, on average, in 2010. Net flows of these loans reached just over EUR 40 bn, while in 2009, enterprises and NFIs repaid loans in a net amount of more than EUR 75 bn. Figure 28: Net flows and growth in the volume of bank loans to non-banking sectors in the euro area Households (left axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) ^^■Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) -Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) 16 120 80 c (D 40 cc 3 0 -40 -80 -120 12 S (D 4 0 -12 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. In December, household borrowing in Slovenia remained at roughly the same level as in November. The monthly net flows amounted to EUR 72.4 m and were solely a result of borrowing in the form of housing loans, which were among the highest in the previous year, at EUR 97.2 m, while households again repaid consumer loans and loans for other purposes. Net flows of household loans totalled EUR 884.7 m in 2010, exceeding the 2009 figure by more than one half. Housing loans stand out the most, recording net flows of EUR 910.2 m, a more than one 8 quarter higher level than the highest to date recorded in 2008. This movement may also be partly reflect the stronger financing of new real estate purchases providing a way for banks to transfer the risk from riskier real estate sectors towards safer households. The credit crunch continued to affect enterprises in December. Enterprises and NFIs net repaid loans taken out at domestic banks for the fourth time in the second half of the year. December's net repayments amounted to EUR 151.6 m, which was the second highest value in 2010. Net repayments were again only recorded for enterprises; NFIs recorded net borrowing, but net inflows were once again modest (EUR 5.6 m). In the second half of the year alone, enterprises and NFIs net repaid loans with domestic banks in the total amount of almost EUR 450 m. Amid considerable net borrowing in the first half of the year, net repayments amounted to EUR 126.8 m in the year as a whole, while enterprises and NFIs net borrowed EUR 23.6 m in 2009. Corporate and NFI borrowing abroad started to pick up in the second half of the year, by our estimation also due to the credit crunch in domestic banks. At the same time, enterprises are also taking advantage of the still much lower loan interest rates abroad. In November, net flows of foreign loans totalled EUR 57.7 m, which is the highest level in 2010. Enterprises and NFIs took out both long-term and short-term loans, with the former representing approximately two thirds of total net flows. Despite substantial net borrowing abroad in November, enterprises and NFIs recorded net repayments of close to EUR 160 m in foreign loans in the first eleven months of 2010 due to high net repayments in the first half of the year, while in the same period of 2009, the net inflow exceeded EUR 380 m. In the first eleven months of last year, enterprises thus net repaid a total of EUR 134.2 m in loans (foreign and domestic), while in the comparable period of 2009, the net flow was positive (EUR 459.2 m). Figure 29: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates ^m Loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 200 150 100 J^ 50 cc 0 -50 -100 -150 360 330 300 I--- 270 * -197.0 1 ; -339.3 _ 1 i 1 1 ^^ ^^ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 240 JE 210 180 150 Banks made net repayments of foreign loans also in November. November's net repayments were otherwise more modest (EUR 27.0 m), which was due to net repayment of foreign deposits, while the net inflows (of both long-term and short-term loans) were positive. Long-term loans stand out somewhat more, recording around EUR 130 m of net inflows, the second highest level in 2010. In the first eleven months of 2010, banks net repaid EUR 1.3 bn in foreign loans and deposits, which is less than half of the amount recorded in the comparable period of 2009. Even though banks have made substantial repayments of foreign loans and deposits ever since the financial crisis first tightened in September 2008, the share of foreign liabilities in Slovenian banks remains substantial, nearly 30% of all liabilities of the banking system. Figure 30: Net bank borrowing abroad ■ Deposits ■ Short-term ■ Long-term ij ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ Source: BS. Figure 31: Creation of additional impairments and provisions J^ ^^ ^^ J^ ^^ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The quality of banks' assets continues to deteriorate rapidly. Similar to previous years, banks also intensified the creation of impairments and provisions in December last year. At the monthly level, they were the highest so far, reaching EUR 168.6 m. In 2010 as a whole, banks created EUR 757.3 m additional impairments and provisions, over 50% more than a year before. The deterioration of the quality of banks' total assets intensified substantially in November. At the monthly level, the volume of non-performing claims recorded 20% growth already and accounted for as much as 3.5% of all bank claims, which is 1.3 p.p. more than at the end of 2009. The disbursement of Christmas bonuses and 13th month payments strengthened the net inflows of household deposits in banks in December, while the government continued to withdraw deposits from banks. Net inflows of household deposits amounted to EUR 159.9 m, which is a similar amount as in December 2009. Nearly two thirds of total net flows came from long-term deposits, which continue to grow fastest of all household deposits. By our estimate, this is mainly attributable to the restructuring of the maturity of household deposits, as banks tend to offer above-average interest rates for long-term deposits due to a lack of other sources of finance. Long-term deposits thus recorded net inflows of EUR 1.3 bn in 2010, equal to net outflows of short-term deposits and deposits redeemable at notice. Total net inflows of households amounted to EUR 526.5 m in 2010, a more than 15% lower figure than a year before. The decline is by, our estimate, also a result of the tightening of the labour market situation. Government deposits recorded net outflows again in December last year (EUR 266.3 m), the second highest in 2010. The government thus withdrew deposits from the banking system in a net amount of EUR 863.5 m in 2010, while having deposited a net EUR 2.1 bn in banks a year before. Figure 32: Net inflows of household and government deposits to banks and y-o-y change in stock Households (left axis) ^m Government deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) —♦— Households (right axis) — Government deposits (right axis)_ 1500 1250 1000 750 240 200 160 120 ^^ ■ I ■ i ' . Ml1 J . . ...........i..................7— i i -■■ .....f" ■ I 1 1 1 1 80 Č c 40 c 0 -40 -80 -120 -160 Mutual funds managed by domestic administrators continued to see modest net inflows in 2010. Reaching EUR 17.4 m, they lagged by almost one tenth behind those recorded in the previous year and did not even reach half of the average monthly level of the year 2007, in which the net inflows to mutual funds had been highest. In 2010, mutual funds witnessed somewhat greater asset restructuring with regard to their investment policy. High outflows were now recorded in mixed funds, and the assets were, by our estimation, transferred to riskier stock funds and less risky bond funds, which, at EUR 27.1 m, recorded the highest yearly net inflows thus far. At the end of the year, the volume of assets in mutual funds exceeded EUR 2 bn for the first time in the last two years and was more than one tenth higher than a year before. We estimate that more than 90% of growth stems from the increase in the value of investment in mutual funds, particularly those oriented to foreign financial markets. Specifically, the main index of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange recorded a 13.5% decline in 2010. The market capitalisation of all securities listed on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange strengthened by 3.9%, which is a sole consequence of an increase in the market capitalisation of bonds (by more than a fifth) and is related to government borrowing, while the market capitalisation of shares declined by 17.3%. Slovenia's capital market is increasingly losing importance, which is also indicated by the volume of the total turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, which totalled less than EUR 500 m in 2010, a nearly 50% decline from the year previously. The marketability of securities listed on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange thus declined further. Figure 33: Volume of the total turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange and y-o-y growth of the SBI TOP Investment funds Bonds ^Shares -SBI TOP (right axis) 3000 2500 2000 SR 1500 1000 500 90 60 30 (D -30 -60 -90 Source: LSE; calculations by IMAD. 0 500 250 ID 0 0 Public finance In 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contrlbutlons13droppedby0.9%comparedwiththeprevious year, with payments amounting to EUR 13.1 bn. General government revenue was generated in a practically unchanged tax system, amid negligible changes in tax instruments and in a better macroeconomic environment than a year earlier. Particularly revenues related to wages and consumption increased relative to the previous year, while income-related tax revenues dropped. The increase of the former is a result of a higher wage bill, despite the shrinkage of employment, while consumption-related tax revenues largely increased due to the base effect. The decline in revenues from income-related taxes is to a great extent a consequence of poor business results in 2009 and final tax assessments, but also of statutory changes carried out to ease business conditions and stimulate job creation and development (lowering corporate income tax rate, increasing tax relief). In 2010, only revenues from value added tax (VAT), excise duties, import taxes and social security contributions increased y-o-y, while revenues from all other main tax categories declined. The 2010 decline in taxes and contributions was mainly due to lower revenues from corporate income tax (-2.0 p.p.) and personal income tax (-0.4 p.p.), while the contributions of revenues from VAT, social security contributions and excise duties were positive (0.8 p.p., 0.5 p.p. and 0.2 p.p.). Inflows of value added tax increased by 3.6% in 2010, largely as a result of the low-base effect due to the economic shrinkage in 2009. Revenue from excise duties14 increased by 1.7% y-o-y, with excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products contributing 2.1 p.p. and excise duties on alcohol and alcohol products 0.5 p.p., while the decline in revenue from excise duties on energy reduced the total growth of this revenue by 0.9 p.p. Excise duties on all excise products increased significantly in 2010, but the quantities of excise products sold declined.15 Amid unchanged contribution rates, revenue from social security contributions followed the wage bill movement and increased by 1.2% in 2010. Revenue from corporate income tax dropped by as much as 37.0% in 2010, as taxable persons could request a prepayment reduction as a result of deteriorated business performance in the current year and due to a lower statutory tax rate. After the assessment of business results for 2009, revenue from this tax declined by around EUR 170 bn. Revenue from personal income tax declined by 2.6% y-o-y: revenue from tax on income from employment was slightly higher (0.8%), but there was a significant drop in revenues from other personal income tax sub-categories (-13.7%), Figure 34: Structure of growth of revenue from taxes and social security contributions Other taxes Payroll tax Social security contributions iwii Domestic taxes on goods and services ^Hlaxes on income -Total 13 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-December 2010, Public Payments Administration. 14 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 15 Excise duties on beer, intermediate beverages and alcohol, tobacco and tobacco products were raised in July. Excise duties on electricity increased in August while excise duties on petrol and gas oil were raised several times in September and October. In the first eleven months, the quantity of sold alcohol and alcohol products declined by 8.2% y-o-y, the quantity of sold tobacco and tobacco products by 3.2% and the quantity of main mineral oils by 1.3%. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. particularly taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits (-38.1%) and income from capital gains (-50.5%). Revenue from personal income tax also slowed in 2010 due to much higher tax refunds based on personal income tax assessments for 2009 (EUR 103 m; EUR 81 m a year earlier) and the statutory increase in tax relief for corporate investment and R&D. According to the consolidated balance16 of the MF, general government revenue amounted to EUR 11.6 bn and expenditure to EUR 13.5 bn in the first ten months of 2010. The deficit thus totalled EUR 1,854 m. Revenue remained unchanged y-o-y (having declined of 7.3% in the same period of 2009), while expenditure increased by 2.8% y-o-y (8.6% a year earlier). In the economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure were up y-o-y in that period, except expenditure on capital transfers, which declined by as much as 18.1%. Interest payments recorded the highest growth (46.3%). Transfers to individuals and households were 4.2% higher y-o-y (5.5% excluding pensions); expenditure on transfers to the unemployed increased the most (27.4%), given the deteriorated situation on the labour market, but its growth is gradually slowing. Expenditure on sickness benefits also recorded strong growth (12.5%). Cumulative y-o-y growth in expenditure on pensions moderated towards the end of 2009, but has been stable since February 2010 so that expenditure on pensions rose by 3.5% y-o-y in the first ten months. Expenditure on subsidies and capital expenditure also rose in that period (4.0% and 1.5%, respectively). Expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures were up 0.3%, while expenditure on goods and services was just below the same level recorded in the same period of the previous year (-0.1%). 16 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds. Table 10: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-X 2010 v mio EUR X 10/ X 09 I-X 10/ I-X 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 40.7 -6.1 11,625.5 -4.3 0.0 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 36.6 -7.0 10,431.6 -7.8 -2.2 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 7.9 -18.5 2,003.1 -6.6 -12.7 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.6 1.3 4,306.5 1.4 1.2 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.2 -3.0 3,848.6 -16.9 -0.1 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 429.1 221.1 30.2 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.3 6.0 13,479.3 -2.1 2.8 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.1 9.3 3,262.1 1.2 0.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.1 -0.8 1,973.5 -0.9 -0.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.0 7.3 5,231.6 5.1 4.2 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 841.7 -3.1 1.5 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 259.5 -51.1 -18.1 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.2 2.7 350.7 -33.1 -4.1 Figure 35: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,400 1,350 1,300 !3 1,250 E Ie 1,200 1,150 "äE cc 1,100 1,050 ■General government revenues ■General government expenditures 1 ■ J V \ 1 Source: MF; calculations by IM AD. The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 1.7 bn in the first ten months of 2010. With expenditure increasing by 3.5%, the total balance of local government budgets also recorded a deficit in that period (EUR 78 m). The deficit of the health fund stood at EUR 38.5 m. The transfer from the state budget into the pension fund amounted to EUR 1,243 m in the first ten months (up 7.3% from the year earlier). Slovenia received EUR 231.3 m from the EU budget in December 2010, five times the monthly average in the first eleven months of 2010. Slovenia paid EUR 33 m into the EU budget in December, and its positive net budgetary position amounted to EUR 198 m (in November, EUR 50 m), which was the highest monthly amount in 2010. In 2010, Slovenia received EUR 723.3 m from the EU budget, i.e. close to 70% of funds envisaged in the supplementary budget for 2010. Around half of all receipts (50.4%) came from structural funds, which is 68.6% of what had been planned for structural funds in the supplementary budget for 2010. The bulk of funds were allocated for regional development (74.1%). Funds for the implementation of the common agricultural and fisheries policies represent more than 30% of total 2010 receipts, 84% of the level planned. Receipts from the cohesion fund saw more than half lower absorption than planned, 48.7%, which was 13.7% of all 2010 receipts. Slovenia thus paid EUR 396.8 m into the EU budget in 2010, 96.1% of funds envisaged in the supplementary budget. Slovenia thus recorded a positive net budgetary position against the EU budget in 2010, in the amount of EUR 326.4 m, a much higher figure than in 2009 (EUR 155.6 m). Figure 36: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Common Agrlcultu ral^ Cohesion policy Other Pre-accesslon EU funds I Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 ■ Total funds received in 2010 ■ Total funds received in 2009 100 200 300 400 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 500 600 Source: MF. 0 M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! (In)solvency in 2010 The number of insolvent business entities increased once again last year. AJPES records show that among the business entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month,17 the number of legal entities increased by more than one fifth, on average, in 2010. This is otherwise nearly half less than in 2009, but the increase in the total amount of their outstanding matured liabilities was much higher (close to 70%) and thus similar to that in 2009. What is new is that in 2010, AJPES started to keep the same type of records as for legal entities also for sole proprietors and other natural persons that perform registered activities. The number of these increased by nearly one half between January and December, and the average amount by more than two thirds. The number of bankruptcy procedures filed thus increased at courts in 2010, both in bankruptcy procedures against legal entities and in personal bankruptcy procedures against sole proprietors. In December last year, altogether 6,102 legal entities had outstanding maturedliabilitiesformorethanfiveconsecutive days in a month in an average daily amount of EUR 387 m. Compared with the previous December, their number increased by 16.2% and the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities by 50.8%. The greatest contributions to the increase in the total number of legal entities came from entities in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, followed by those in the area of professional, scientific and technical activities, and manufacturing. The increase in the total amount of their outstanding matured liabilities was again mainly due to the contributions of legal entities in the construction sector, followed by those in professional, scientific and technical activities, and in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. In December last year, the Figure 37: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and average total amount of outstanding liabilities ■ No. of legal entities (left axis) - Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities (right axis) 2,000 400 360 320 280 240 J^ 200 ^^ Ču 160 120 80 40 a a a Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities was the highest in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (more than one fifth), while the highest average amount of outstanding matured liabilities was, as in December 2009, recorded for legal entities in construction (almost one third). According to AJPES records for sole proprietors and other natural persons carrying out registered activities, 8,670 natural persons had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month in December last year, in an average daily amount of EUR 100 m. At the end of the year, the most of the treated natural persons were in construction (just over one quarter), followed by the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, and Table 11: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, December 2010 Activity No. of leg. ent. with outst. mat. liab. Growth Dec. 10/ Dec. 09, in % Growth I-XII 10/ I-XII 09, in % Growth I-XII 10/ I-XII 08, in % Aver. daily amount of outst. mat. liab., in EUR Growth Dec. 10/ Dec. 09, in % Growth I-XII 10/ I-XII 09, in % Growth I-XII 10/ I-XII 08, in % Aver. daily amount of outst. mat. liab. per leg. ent., in EUR Constrution 1,319 2.4 22.6 108.3 113,853,516 45.5 92.9 324.3 86,318 Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles 1,330 22.8 20.1 45.9 54,680,503 43.5 12.0 44.6 41,113 Financial and insurance activities 81 47.3 47.4 87.1 49,401,841 7.0 199.1 721.7 609,899 Professional, scientific and technical activities 671 25.0 22.2 79.0 42,191,467 102.8 8.6 115.1 62,878 Manufacturing 785 18.6 21.7 84.2 40,636,782 40.4 84.3 183.0 51,767 Transportation and storage 377 10.2 28.3 104.6 22,043,352 109.4 126.0 213.7 58,470 Real estate activities 168 37.7 32.2 104.8 17,511,787 184.0 107.6 359.1 104,237 Accommodation and food service ctivities 466 15.1 17.9 79.3 16,243,086 62.8 32.6 79.3 34,856 Other service activities 905 19.4 19.6 61.5 30,466,786 71.3 46.1 143.7 33,665 Total 6,102 16.2 21.9 76.3 387,029,120 50.8 68.9 191.9 63,427 Source: AJPES. 17 These records only include outstanding matured liabilities according to writs of execution and tax debt, while they do not include other outstanding liabilities (unpaid bills between creditors and debtors). Table 12: Sole proprietors and other natural persons that carry out registered activities, with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, December 2010 Activity No. of sole proprietors and other natural persons Growth Dec. 10/ Jan. 10, in % Average daily amount of outst. mat. liab., in EUR Growth Dec. 10/ Jan. 10, in % Average daily amount of outst. mat. liab. per sole propr. or other nat. pers., in EUR Constrution 2.292 37,8 30.095.564 85,2 13.131 Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles 1.299 52,6 15.863.560 57,6 12.212 Manufacturing 989 N/A. 13.261.387 50,7 13.409 Transportation and storage 760 38,9 12.418.536 86,3 16.340 Accommodation and food service ctivities 1.001 49,9 12.270.053 58,7 12.258 Professional, scientific and technical activities 728 72,9 4.608.083 44,9 6.330 Other service activities 369 73,2 2.814.276 23,9 7.627 Arts, entertainment and recreation 187 85,1 1.315.773 127,1 7.036 Other activities 1.045 -22,2 7.764.687 78,5 7.430 Total 8.670 49,3 100.411.919 67,6 11.582 Source: AJPES. accommodation and food service activities. These records also show that the average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities was highest in construction (close to one third), followed by the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and manufacturing. Data show that the problem of insolvency deepened significantly over the last two years. Among the legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five days in a month, last year, legal entities which had outstanding matured liabilities for up to three months accounted for the greatest share (39.8%). Slightly fewer legal entities (37.0%) had outstanding matured liabilities for three months up to one year and almost one quarter (23.2%) for more than one year. That the insolvency problem deepened last year is indicated especially by the fact that the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than one year increased the most.18 The average monthly number of these entities increased by 42.0% last year and was followed by the number of legal entities which had outstanding matured liabilities for three months up to one year (29.0%), while the smallest increase was recorded for the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for up to three months (7.5%). In the two years of the economic crisis between 2010 and 2008, the greatest increase was otherwise recorded for the average monthly number of legal entities which had outstanding matured liabilities for three months up to one year (109.2%). The average monthly amount of outstanding matured liabilities shows a similar picture: the amount of matured liabilities that were outstanding for three months up to one year increased the most last year (93.9%) and the amount of matured liabilities outstanding for more than one year increased by 81.7%. 18 Up to 15 January 2008, outstanding matured liabilities were, according to the previous Act (item 2, Article 25 of the Compulsory Settlement, Bankruptcy and Liquidation Act - ZFPP), one of the conditions for the court to start, of its own motion, the procedure of deleting from the register of companies the legal entity, sole proprietor or other natural person that carries out a registered activity and has outstanding matured liabilities for more than one year. Figure 38: Average monthly number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than 5 days in a month - by time period ■ 2008 «2009 1 2010 »2010/2009 growth (right axis) 2,500 50 2,000 ^ii 1,500 1,000 20 Up to 3 months From 3 months up Over 1 year to 1 year Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. In 2010, 1.5 times more compulsory settlement procedures were filed against legal entities than in 2009, 64.7% more bankruptcy procedures and 43.7% more personal bankruptcy procedures against sole proprietors. Last year, 35 compulsory settlement procedures were launched against legal entities according to the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act,19 the most in the construction sector followed by manufacturing and the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. In 2010, 448 bankruptcy procedures were filed against legal entities, of which the most in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, manufacturing and construction. 69 personal bankruptcy procedures were launched against sole proprietors, particularly in the construction sector, followed by the sale, maintenance 19 Since 1 October 2008, the procedures filed due to the insolvency of business entities are governed by the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act (ZFPPIPP). 40 30 0 0 Figure 39: Average total monthly amount of outstanding liabilities - by time period 200 180 160 J^ 140 120 ^ 100 != ^ 80 10 it 60 40 20 0 2008 ■ 2009 ■ 2010 ♦ 2010/2009 growth (right axis) 100 90 80 70 60 # 50 ^ä^ o 40 30 20 10 0 Up to 3 months From 3 months up Over 1 year to 1 year Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. and repair of motor vehicles, transport and storage, and accommodation and food service activities. Last year's large increase in procedures filed is partly related to the amendment to Article 14 of ZFPPIPP,20 which entered into force at the end of July 2009 and extended the definition of the insolvency of business entities. Figure 40: Filling of bankruptcy procedures 140 70 ^^ Legal entities (left axis) -Sole proprietors (right axis) 108 133 120 100 80 60 z 40 60 50 40 30 Source: AJPES - eObjave sodnih zadev (e-release of judicial affairs). Registered unemployment in 2010 On average, 100,504 persons registered as unemployed in 2010, 14,151 persons (16.4%) more than in 2009. Unemployment increased, on average, at all levels of education and for all age groups and both genders. Among these categories, the number of unemployed persons with a tertiary education increased the most (28.7%), followed by the number of unemployed persons aged over 50 (by 19.8%) and the number of unemployed men (19.8%). The significant increase in the number of registered unemployed older persons at the end of 2010 is most likely a consequence of the new Labour Market Regulation Act and the expected new Pension and Disability Insurance Act, while the increase in male unemployment is to a great extent related to the adverse situation in construction. Due to insufficient job creation in 2010, the number of long-term unemployed persons and the number of first-time job-seekers also rose in 2010, compared with 2009 (by 35.8% and by 17.9%, respectively). The average duration of unemployment was 20 days shorter than in 2009. It declined in most categories under observation (unskilled workers, men and women), but was slightly longer in persons with a higher education. Women and unskilled persons still tend to remain unemployed longest. Unemployment increased in all regions; most notably in the Osrednjeslovenska (25.2%), Spodnjeposavska (18.9%), Goriška (18.5%) and Notranjsko-kraška (18.4%). In 2010, the number of registered unemployed had grown slowly until September but started to increase at the end of the year, at higher rates than expected at the time of the preparation of our Autumn Forecast. At the end of December 2010, the number of registered unemployed persons totalled 110,021, which is 13,349 (13.8%) more than in December 2009 and the highest figure since March 2000. According to seasonally adjusted data, unemployment has been rising almost without interruption since as early as June 2008. Figure 41: Number of registered unemployed persons and its monthly growth ^■Number at the end of the month (left axis) -Seasonally adjusted monthly growth (right axis) S o 2 0 OG RS, No. 59/09. ^^ -Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. 20 20 10 8 0 0 6 80 4 c 60 40 20 0 Figure 42: Registered unemployment by age 45 40 35 ---Aged under 30 -Aged 30 to 50 -Aged over 50 E 30 20 -Q E == 15 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. A total of 109,174persons registered as unemployed anew in 2010, which is 5,322 persons (-4.6%) less than in 2009, while 95,825persons were deleted from the register (11,762persons or 14.0% more than a year earlier). Broken down by levels of education, the inflow of unemployed persons with a lower education dropped the most (-13.8%). The inflow of those with a secondary education also declined (-2.5%) while the inflow of persons with a higher education increased relative to 2009 (by 9.6%). The number of first-time job-seekers also dropped (-1.2%). The greatest monthly inflow into unemployment was recorded in December Table 13: Flows in registered unemployment (14,846 newly registered persons). Overall 83,466 persons lost work in 2010 (7.8% fewer than in 2009), but in some of the main categories unemployment declined. The number of newly registered unemployed persons who had lost jobs due to bankruptcies, the termination of temporary employment contracts, for business reasons or due to compulsory settlements declined, but much more persons became unemployed due to the winding up of small businesses. On the other hand, 57,004 unemployed persons found work in 2010 (8,451 persons or 17.4% more than in 2009) and the number of unemployed persons Figure 43: Registered unemployed persons by education 2008 2009 2010 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. Number in '000 Change, in % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 A No. at the beginning of the year 92.6 78.3 68.4 66.2 96.7 -15.4 -12.6 -3.2 B Total inflows during the year 90.2 73.5 70.8 114.5 109.2 -18.5 -3.8 61.7 -4.6 - first-time job-seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 17.0 16.8 -20.7 -15.1 35.8 -1.2 - lost work 63.8 52.5 53.0 90.5 83.5 -17.6 1.0 70.7 -7.8 of which: termination of temp. empl. contracts 33.4 28.3 29.4 45.1 40.8 -15.3 4.2 53.3 -9.5 bankruptcies 3.1 1.9 2.4 9.3 5.4 -40.9 30.1 285.3 -41.7 winding up of small businesses 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9 -39.4 -1.7 6.1 2286.9 business reasons, compulsory settlements 10.8 8.5 8.3 22.3 21.6 -20.9 -2.0 168.2 -3.3 - transfer from other registers 7.9 6.3 5.2 7.4 8.9 -20.0 -16.8 41.8 20.4 C Total A + B 182.8 151.8 139.2 180.7 205.8 -16.9 -8.3 29.8 13.9 D Total outflows during the year 104.5 83.4 73.0 84.1 95.8 -20.1 -12.6 15.2 14.0 - found work 57.4 49.1 41.7 48.6 57.0 -14.5 -15.2 16.5 17.4 - deleted for reasons other than employment 42.2 31.7 27.1 28.3 32.1 -24.7 -14.5 4.4 13.4 of which: education 4.0 4.6 2.8 4.5 4.5 16.4 -40.1 60.7 0.8 retirement 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.8 7.3 11.2 9.9 17.1 26.4 neglect of duties 18.8 11.7 10.0 10.2 11.8 -37.8 -14.6 2.1 15.4 - transfer to other registers 4.9 2.6 4.1 7.2 6.7 -47.3 61.2 73.2 -6.8 E No. at the end of the year (E = C - D) 78.3 68.4 66.2 96.7 110.0 -12.6 -3.2 45.9 13.8 25 10 fell by another 29,900 (4.8% more than a year earlier) for reasons other than employment (retirement, education, violation of obligations, transfer to other registers, etc.). In 2010, 8.2% more job vacancies were registered than in 2009, but the number of persons hired was 6.5% lower. Looking at major activities, the year 2010 saw the largest y-o-y increase in job vacancies in manufacturing (31.3%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (28.5%), and the largest decline in job vacancies in agriculture (-11.9%), construction (-5.3%) and public administration and defence (-4.8%). The share of temporary job vacancies increased by 2.6 p.p. compared with 2009, to 80.7%, and the share of persons hired under fixed-term contracts (80.6%) by 1.2 p.p. The number of work permits for foreigners declined by a further 11 thousand persons or 12.7%. Among activities that employ the most foreigners, it dropped the most in construction (-25.3%) and distributive trade (-15.1%). Figure 44: Duration of unemployment - selected groups 1,200 -Average -Women -----Men ■i------Unskilled ----Higher education Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Autumn forecast 2010 forecast forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.5 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 0.9 2.5 3.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 35,792 37,227 39,033 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,575 18,240 19,087 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 87 88 89 91 86 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 28,506 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 35,256 36,552 38,223 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 28,362 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 35,220 36,525 38,183 Rate of registered unemployment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.0 10.6 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.1 6.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.4 3.2 2.9 3.0 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 7.0 5.9 7.0 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 8.7 5.9 7.2 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 0.6 5.5 6.0 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 5.6 4.5 5.9 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 6.2 4.4 5.8 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 2.8 5.6 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -330 -386 -427 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 42,3415- As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.3 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.310 1.294 1.294 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 2.0 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 55.6 55.5 55.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.7 -0.8 1.4 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.4 19.7 19.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 -3.5 4.0 4.3 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; ^Consumer price index; ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64); 5end November 2010; PRODUCTION 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 3 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.2 2.5 -17.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.2 -24.6 -18.4 -7.1 -0.3 11.2 8.1 -11.7 -13.2 -17.1 -21.5 -15.9 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 5.5 -2.9 7.1 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 14.1 26.4 -14.7 18.8 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 C Manufacturing 8.5 2.6 -18.7 3.7 -8.4 -20.0 -25.9 -19.5 -7.9 0.2 12.1 8.0 -12.5 -15.4 -18.9 -23.8 -17.3 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -11.1 2.1 -6.6 -1.1 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.4 3.5 4.7 7.5 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 18.5 15.7 -21.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 Buildings 14.3 11.5 -22.5 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 Civil engineering 21.9 18.9 -19.9 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 13.4 18.4 -9.2 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 6.8 -2.3 -24.2 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 9.7 10.1 -13.0 10.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.6 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 Real turnover in retail trade 6.1 12.2 -10.6 12.7 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 19.2 6.2 -21.7 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.3 11.1 -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 16.1 17.1 -21.4 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 3.9 7.7 2.1 0.5 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 7.0 1.8 -3.4 1.8 0.6 -3.5 -4.6 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 3.4 12.3 2.7 -5.7 -7.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 4.9 5.2 2.8 4.7 7.2 4.3 1.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 12.3 15.6 77 -1.0 8.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 8.4 -0.5 -8.0 0.1 -4.8 -10.6 -8.6 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 -4.1 9.1 -07 -12.2 -19.3 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants 9.7 6.7 -7.8 7.0 3.9 -3.9 -8.2 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 4.1 -0.6 -1.4 -6.7 -3.7 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 492.2 529.9 449.3 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 14 3 -22 7 -15 -31 -28 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -17 -24 -31 -29 -33 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 11 -5 -23 -3 -27 -35 -27 -19 -13 -7 -1 3 -28 -32 -37 -33 -34 - in construction 19 2 -50 3 -21 -43 -51 -54 -51 -57 -60 -56 -21 -35 -40 -40 -49 - in services 29 27 -14 30 7 -19 -24 -10 -1 -1 -5 -2 6 -6 -15 -16 -26 - in retail trade 27 22 -13 26 8 -17 -18 -9 -7 -6 10 11 0 -3 -14 -16 -20 Consumer confidence indicator -11 -20 -30 -16 -29 -39 -32 -22 -25 -25 -22 -27 -34 -35 -43 -37 -37 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2009 2010 2011 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 -29.8 -22.2 -21.6 -20.8 -17.5 -16.8 -19.6 -1.7 4.7 -8.8 -1.2 8.3 9.1 14.3 10.2 6.9 13.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.6 18.5 39.6 22.5 24.5 -31.6 -23.6 -22.5 -22.1 -19.4 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.8 -0.7 9.2 10.3 15.1 11.0 7.6 14.4 3.7 5.4 - - -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.2 -3.6 1.1 13.6 2.2 - - -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -16.0 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -26.5 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -8.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.3 4.9 6.6 3.9 8.4 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.1 3.2 1.3 3.4 -2.0 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.4 15.9 15.5 3.5 15.4 14.4 9.6 18.8 16.6 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 4.7 10.6 2.9 7.8 5.7 1.4 4.5 - - 2.4 -11.9 -2.7 -3.4 0.8 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.0 3.3 -2.8 2.9 8.9 6.8 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.0 - 1.7 -17.4 -6.7 -11.7 -3.0 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -4.0 - -6.1 -9.3 -9.2 -7.8 -5.9 -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -1.5 2.4 3.6 5.7 4.5 2.5 6.9 5.1 - - 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 -34 -25 -24 -21 -19 -13 -13 -14 -13 -10 -11 -15 -12 -8 -6 -5 -7 -7 -8 -8 -8 -7 -32 -27 -22 -23 -20 -14 -16 -12 -11 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 1 6 1 1 2 -2 -1 4 -53 -46 -53 -49 -59 -55 -56 -47 -49 -56 -55 -61 -63 -57 -59 -60 -57 -51 -51 -53 -56 -56 -27 -22 -22 -13 -12 -5 2 -5 -1 6 2 -10 -8 -4 -3 -1 -3 -3 -7 -2 0 1 -17 -18 -19 -16 -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 -5 9 9 13 9 13 11 11 9 10 5 -41 -30 -24 -25 -26 -16 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 -26 -26 -24 -26 -26 LABOUR MARKET 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 925.3 942.5 944.5 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 946.5 946.2 945.9 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 854.0 879.3 858.2 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 880.3 872.2 868.7 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 40.4 39.7 37.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 38.8 37.8 37.8 In industry, construction 321.9 330.4 306.9 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 325.9 320.1 317.4 Of which: in manufacturing 223.6 222.4 199.8 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 216.3 211.8 209.6 in construction 78.4 87.9 86.8 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 89.5 88.3 87.7 In services 491.6 509.1 513.4 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 515.6 514.4 513.6 Of which: in public administration 50.3 51.0 51.5 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 in education, health-services, social work 108.8 111.1 113.8 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 112.6 112.8 113.2 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 766.0 789.9 767.4 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 In enterprises and organisations 696.1 717.6 699.4 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 718.1 712.6 709.7 By those self-employed 69.9 72.3 67.9 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 72.2 70.4 69.7 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.9 89.4 90.8 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 90.0 89.2 89.3 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 71.3 63.2 86.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 Female 39.1 33.4 42.4 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 33.7 37.2 38.5 By age: under 26 11.9 9.1 13.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 10.2 11.7 12.3 aged over 50 22.2 21.9 26.2 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 21.9 23.6 24.1 Unskilled 28.0 25.4 34.1 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 27.0 30.1 31.4 For more than 1 year 36.5 32.3 31.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 30.8 31.2 31.0 Those receiving benefits 16.6 14.4 27.4 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 16.8 20.9 22.8 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 6.7 9.1 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 7.0 7.8 8.2 Male 6.2 5.6 8.3 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 Female 9.6 8.1 10.2 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 8.1 9.0 9.3 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 21.5 13.7 -5.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 -3.4 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.7 12.5 17.0 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 Redundancies 52.5 53.0 90.5 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 Registered unemployed who found employment 49.1 41.7 48.6 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 2.4 3.2 2.7 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.0 26.1 28.5 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 2.2 0.7 1.9 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 10.1 13.2 -9.6 4.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 Retirements2 20.7 22.4 24.5 6.3 6.1 5.3 5.2 6.7 7.3 6.7 5.9 6.6 1.8 2.2 1.6 Others who found employment2 40.9 31.5 34.7 5.9 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 11.5 5.2 -0.3 1.7 2.2 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 242.9 240.5 161.3 64.6 47.7 40.1 40.3 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 12.3 13.7 12.2 For a fixed term, in % 76.5 74.5 78.1 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 73.1 72.0 75.0 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 60.2 81.1 86.6 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 74.9 90.7 90.7 91.2 As % of labour force 6.5 8.6 9.2 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 9.6 9.6 9.6 NEW JOBS 160.0 162.7 111.4 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 8.9 10.2 8.1 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by pDiI and ESS; 3according to ESS. 2009 2010 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 -1.3 0.2 -3.2 -1.3 1.1 4.1 -1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.5 2.5 3.5 1.5 1.4 5.3 4.5 5.2 0.3 -2.4 3.5 3.7 6.1 2.3 3.1 -0.6 1.3 4.4 3.7 3.8 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 75.1 74.9 74.5 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 8 9 10 11 12 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 5.9 8.3 3.4 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.3 9.1 -0.2 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 B Mining and quarrying 6.4 13.4 0.9 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 C Manufacturing 7.0 7.5 0.8 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 6.2 9.5 3.8 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.1 7.8 2.0 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 F Constrution 6.6 7.5 1.0 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.6 7.7 1.9 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 H Transportation and storage 6.0 8.4 0.7 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 I Accommodation and food service activities 5.3 8.3 1.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 J Information and communication 5.7 7.3 1.4 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 K Financial and insurance activities 7.4 6.0 -0.7 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 L Real estate activities 7.0 6.0 1.9 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.0 8.4 2.1 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 N Administrative and support service activities 7.5 9.6 1.8 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.1 12.2 5.9 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 P Education 3.9 7.0 3.6 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 Q Human health and social work activities 3.1 12.0 12.0 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.6 5.3 3.9 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 S Other service activities 3.3 8.2 1.3 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.3 2.8 0.7 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 -1.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.2 0.8 2.8 2.2 0.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 USD/EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: "Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2009 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 10 11 12 1 2 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 PRICE CONTROL,' y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2009 2010 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 5.6 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.6 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 10.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 11 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -1,646 -2,489 -526 -698 -757 -304 64 -235 -51 -111 -85 -70 -156 -346 -75 -137 Goods1 -1,666 -2,650 -699 -751 -743 -156 -29 -228 -286 -134 -204 -177 -180 -297 -48 -37 Exports 19,798 20,048 16,167 5,038 4,577 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,204 4,693 4,635 1,532 1,204 1,214 1,293 Imports 21,464 22,698 16,866 5,789 5,320 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,339 4,898 4,812 1,711 1,501 1,262 1,330 Services 1,047 1,493 1,114 413 304 239 311 296 269 233 297 262 110 53 92 60 Exports 4,145 5,043 4,301 1,475 1,219 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 925 1,069 1,260 378 394 307 278 Imports 3,098 3,549 3,187 1,062 915 679 738 977 793 692 772 998 268 341 215 218 Income -789 -1,030 -782 -357 -231 -230 -200 -241 -112 -156 -135 -161 -74 -67 -71 -82 Receipts 1,169 1,261 665 335 342 131 176 138 220 207 239 221 107 126 48 42 Expenditure 1,957 2,292 1,447 691 573 361 376 378 332 363 373 382 181 193 119 124 Current transfers -239 -302 -159 -4 -87 -158 -18 -62 79 -53 -43 6 -12 -35 -48 -78 Receipts 941 870 957 254 238 141 266 176 374 258 215 271 87 90 35 45 Expenditure 1,180 1,172 1,116 257 325 299 283 238 296 312 258 264 99 125 83 124 Capital and financial account 1,920 2,545 220 631 703 -25 -57 129 173 86 252 183 291 529 188 -96 Capital account -52 -25 -9 -4 -26 -4 41 -4 -42 45 2 16 41 -72 -7 -2 Financial account 1,972 2,571 230 635 729 -20 -98 133 214 40 250 167 251 601 196 -95 Direct investment -210 381 -539 82 299 3 -415 -46 -81 -28 61 49 93 235 148 -14 Domestic abroad -1,317 -949 -121 -248 -132 104 -260 35 1 -120 25 -26 -10 -40 129 -7 Foreign in Slovenia 1,106 1,329 -419 330 431 -100 -155 -81 -82 92 36 75 103 275 20 -6 Portfolio investment -2,255 572 4,625 166 1,258 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,106 503 -48 658 213 410 559 Financial derivatives -15 46 -2 5 6 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -65 -1 2 2 -10 -13 Other investment 4,313 1,551 -4,021 380 -855 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,077 -200 149 -486 145 -349 -713 Assets -4,741 -427 -273 434 300 746 -161 -1,053 194 251 -578 558 18 717 73 603 Commercial credits -400 -142 417 -9 554 62 166 -37 227 -237 -209 11 131 466 149 -26 Loans -1,895 -325 -29 158 -91 40 -91 -23 45 -359 496 13 73 122 -185 206 Currency and deposits -2,454 35 -587 304 -155 638 -239 -1,004 18 848 -858 439 -191 151 98 413 Other assets 7 4 -75 -19 -8 7 2 12 -96 -2 -6 95 5 -22 11 10 Liabilities 9,054 1,978 -3,747 -54 -1,156 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,328 378 -409 -504 -572 -422 -1,316 Commercial credits 499 -73 -459 -25 -536 -301 -105 25 -78 93 268 -39 -182 -288 -299 -33 Loans 3,841 1,869 -2,941 242 -489 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -414 -195 -64 -483 -43 -125 18 Deposits 4,727 190 -318 -272 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 159 -244 5 -1,303 Other liabilities -13 -7 -29 2 6 -5 6 -28 -2 72 -54 -1 3 3 -3 2 International reserves2 140 21 167 1 21 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 18 -17 5 -4 86 Statistical error -273 -56 305 67 54 329 -7 106 -122 25 -167 -113 -135 -184 -113 234 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,936 2,241 1,783 598 544 442 461 407 473 403 455 441 185 158 128 152 Intermediate goods 10,436 10,760 8,090 2,730 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,234 2,539 2,539 816 589 644 637 Consumer goods 7,035 6,808 6,144 1,648 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,534 1,666 1,622 511 441 429 491 Import of investment goods 3,031 3,441 2,288 862 878 583 551 521 633 449 609 573 279 310 172 161 Intermediate goods 12,875 13,735 9,823 3,543 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,681 3,036 3,001 1,017 782 758 803 Consumer goods 5,601 5,870 5,004 1,475 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,262 1,313 1,316 441 431 353 389 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. 2009 2010 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 -92 4 18 42 -84 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -23 -126 37 -44 -101 60 2 -62 -9 -65 -68 -71 -67 -7 45 -50 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -19 -89 -26 -77 -133 6 -31 -101 -45 -136 -129 1,427 1,304 1,333 1,427 1,401 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,229 1,327 1,649 1,468 1,565 1,660 1,604 1,304 1,728 1,653 1,687 1,498 1,371 1,340 1,382 1,451 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,248 1,416 1,675 1,545 1,698 1,654 1,635 1,405 1,773 1,790 1,815 87 103 112 96 59 125 111 114 85 70 80 70 83 101 102 94 60 87 116 115 72 334 344 348 357 436 447 389 367 322 373 298 285 342 353 351 365 431 421 407 369 333 246 241 236 261 376 322 278 253 237 303 218 215 259 252 249 271 371 335 292 254 261 -76 -56 -77 -67 -96 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -56 -55 -45 -49 -45 -40 -52 -53 -56 -52 -55 41 51 55 69 51 43 44 45 107 69 66 64 77 74 82 83 74 74 73 75 75 118 107 132 137 146 109 123 108 90 134 122 119 122 123 127 123 126 127 129 127 130 -32 24 -11 -31 2 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -27 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 43 61 116 80 69 80 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 55 82 79 116 88 67 100 122 93 92 90 101 77 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 73 107 78 91 82 91 92 79 -117 15 98 -170 104 -66 92 95 -7 85 53 77 -44 130 18 104 127 -50 106 98 -222 5 -2 -1 45 -3 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 3 -121 18 99 -215 106 -64 91 94 -32 153 60 79 -99 128 21 101 135 -46 79 95 -225 -132 -100 -255 -61 -40 27 -34 -17 -89 25 38 -47 -19 -1 27 36 52 56 -59 96 264 -18 -74 -189 3 26 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -7 -76 -37 -23 24 24 3 5 -33 -25 32 -114 -26 -66 -64 -65 3 -18 8 -126 36 44 29 18 22 3 11 49 52 -26 121 232 -95 1,005 263 -118 864 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -446 195 607 -201 98 82 -27 -102 61 152 0 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -1 0 0 1 5 74 -888 20 -24 -663 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,384 566 -260 -499 276 23 5 -72 216 -82 -631 70 -152 -730 721 -656 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 144 61 45 -8 -629 59 712 -206 52 -157 -612 -62 70 141 -45 -6 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -11 -42 -183 -33 -90 -86 -6 186 -169 -96 -67 19 48 -62 -77 -58 72 -37 -8 48 5 -54 29 -333 417 17 61 104 -37 -53 -36 2 127 -269 -808 838 -592 556 -968 292 -367 93 216 69 563 -400 -542 84 605 -428 262 -11 -542 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -14 0 9 73 13 -13 -5 4 -736 751 -745 -7 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,528 505 -305 -491 905 -36 -707 135 163 75 -18 30 -48 -32 -25 20 -110 116 88 80 -246 -88 69 112 54 130 85 -34 -184 178 140 61 -464 -328 349 -1,353 12 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -40 -18 -356 -276 328 -246 -38 -40 14 -240 232 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -305 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 10 17 -5 -7 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 209 -19 -115 128 -20 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -31 49 7 -86 84 -164 -129 112 -97 -33 290 162 171 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 116 120 167 142 155 158 158 124 158 163 N/A 695 646 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 657 724 853 802 855 882 878 711 950 914 N/A 555 478 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 446 473 615 514 543 609 555 458 609 562 N/A 249 190 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 121 148 180 213 217 180 179 151 243 182 N/A 820 762 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 794 878 1009 948 1067 1020 1038 874 1,088 1,149 N/A 453 437 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 389 516 416 448 449 438 406 472 485 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 67 68 160 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 Central government (S. 1311) 2,367 2,162 3,497 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 118 212 376 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 Households (S. 14, 15) 6,818 7,827 8,413 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 18,105 21,149 21,704 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,305 2,815 2,680 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 2,401 3,666 5,302 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,555 32,113 34,731 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 In foreign currency 1,990 2,370 1,895 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 Securities, total 3,570 3,346 5,345 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 20,029 23,129 27,965 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 Overnight 6,887 6,605 7,200 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,913 10,971 9,779 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 With agreed maturity -long-term 2,857 4,157 9,688 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,372 1,396 1,298 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 Deposits in foreign currency, total 559 490 433 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 Overnight 218 215 238 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 With agreed maturity -short-term 248 198 123 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 41 45 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 37 36 27 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.36 0.46 0.28 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 3.36 4.30 2.51 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.80 6.77 6.43 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 6.62 6.28 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 3.7^ 3.2^ 2.5^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.28 4.63 1.23 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 6-month rates 4.35 4.72 1.44 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.55 2.58 0.37 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 6-month rates 2.65 2.69 0.50 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 527 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,914 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,298 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,014 22,022 21,814 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,642 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,536 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,517 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,459 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,814 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,939 35,493 35,389 35,616 35,430 35,931 36,006 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,875 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,844 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,367 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27936 27,077 27,355 26,817 26,696 27,486 26,777 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7969 7,934 8,038 8,029 7,926 8,119 8,155 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 8376 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,204 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 11416 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,336 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 480 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 707 465 494 465 456 471 463 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 515 283 310 280 286 291 285 166 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 36 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 - 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.84 1.87 1.83 1.89 1.86 1.89 - 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.63 5.40 5.84 4.90 5.72 6.00 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 - 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 4 1 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,006.1 15,339.2 14,408.0 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.3 3,477.0 3,649.9 1,199.9 1,102.2 Current revenues 13,467.2 14,792.3 13,639.5 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 Tax revenues 12,757.9 13,937.4 12,955.4 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 1,076.2 996.5 Taxes on income and profit 2,917.7 3,442.2 2,805.1 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 195.9 229.5 Social security contributions 4,598.0 5,095.0 5,161.3 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 433.1 423.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 418.1 258.0 28.5 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 2.4 2.3 Taxes on property 206.4 214.9 207.0 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 7.9 15.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,498.6 4,805.3 4,660.2 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 424.3 316.7 Taxes on international trade & transactions 117.1 120.1 90.5 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 12.4 8.2 Other taxes 2.1 1.8 2.9 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 Non-tax revenues 709.2 854.9 684.1 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 48.0 50.6 Capital revenues 136.6 117.3 106.5 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 3.9 15.5 Grants 11.9 10.4 11.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 Transferred revenues 42.5 53.9 54.3 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 0.4 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 348.0 365.4 596.5 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.5 87.8 155.1 70.6 39.3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,915.5 15,441.7 16,368.2 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 1,255.5 1,478.1 Current expenditures 5,950.9 6,557.5 6,797.3 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,637.0 569.3 580.8 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,276.9 3,578.9 3,912.3 892.5 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.5 1,012.6 963.6 312.7 374.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,212.2 2,527.5 2,506.8 586.1 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 556.7 624.8 587.8 212.7 202.2 Interest payments 357.0 335.2 335.9 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 41.7 1.9 Reserves 104.8 116.0 42.3 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 2.3 2.7 Current transfers 6,143.9 6,742.2 7,340.3 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 571.1 761.3 Subsidies 423.4 476.5 597.9 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 31.3 54.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,093.3 5,619.2 6,024.1 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 487.2 643.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 595.3 598.3 679.5 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.7 188.6 183.3 51.0 56.3 Current transfers abroad 32.0 48.2 38.9 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 1.5 6.6 Capital expenditures 1,130.5 1,255.5 1,293.3 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 320.9 65.6 84.1 Capital transfers 334.3 458.6 495.2 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 17.1 27.8 Payments to the EU budget 355.9 427.9 439.3 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 32.4 24.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 90.6 -102.5 -1,961.4 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2009 2010 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.5 1,183.6 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,047.8 1,116.0 993.6 1,062.1 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,110.0 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 1,027.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 114.1 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 432.7 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 24.7 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 444.4 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 53.8 62.1 58.2 61.2 56.2 60.1 83.0 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.9 7.3 5.3 5.3 9.4 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 100.9 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.5 45.1 67.9 12.0 26.3 49.5 61.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.3 1,372.1 1,355.7 1,322.7 1,464.5 1,335.4 1,302.9 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.0 631.6 643.6 613.9 594.4 548.9 529.6 529.0 578.4 558.2 543.8 318.9 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.7 315.2 324.7 313.9 377.2 321.5 319.7 324.8 319.1 329.2 322.8 203.1 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.2 206.7 193.4 211.9 219.5 203.4 200.5 183.9 204.2 216.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.2 612.0 753.2 629.9 608.7 590.1 612.0 624.4 633.0 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 39.3 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 509.1 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 59.0 59.4 64.9 58.1 59.0 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 87.4 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.6 67.2 86.7 108.0 99.7 113.2 115.6 161.6 68.0 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 19.1 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 52.0 25.6 22.1 34.3 40.3 68.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 30.8 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI -consumer price index, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HWWI - Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers Indice, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SORS -Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supplysewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror January 2011, No. 1, Vol. XVII