Analiza vpliva naraščajoče gladine morja na poplavno ogroženost in škodo na območju mesta Piran
Analysis of the impact of rising sea levels on flood risks and associated damage in the town of Piran

slovenian

2024

volume 37, issue 66

Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo
(Obvezni izvod spletne publikacije)

This paper presents analyses of the impact of various scenarios involving increases in mean sea levels due to climate change on the characteristics of sea flooding and the expected flood damage in the area surrounding the town of Piran, Slovenia. Taking into account the various scenarios of mean sea level rise, we have determined the extent of inundated areas and water depth in the coastal area under consideration. The KRPAN model was used to analyze the exposure risks facing the town’s residents and some of its spatial elements, as well as to estimate the flood damage for various scenarios of mean sea level rise. The results of the study show a likely dramatic increase in the probability that the current extreme sea flood events on the Slovenian coast will continue to occur, namely an approximately 2-fold increase in probability for every 10 cm of sea level rise. The expected annual damage for the current state is estimated at approximately €0.68 million/year, rising to €2.4 million/year in the event of an increase in the mean sea level of 30 cm by 2100, with most of the damage related to residential facilities. Considering the most pessimistic scenario of sea level rise, the annual damage is expected to increase to €10.2 million/year. Irrespective of the actual magnitude of the imminent mean sea level rise in the coming decades, the fact remains that without flood protection measures, flood damage in the Piran area will increase enormously in the future. The town will have to cope with the increasing consequences of sea flooding, which will have a major impact on the normal functioning of urban areas.

21.04.2025