Why is the LSTI ratio increasing? : explaining factors of synthetic LSTI dynamics

english

2024

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Financial systems are exposed to structural systemic and cyclical risks that may be a consequence of various economic shocks. With the help of various economic poli-cies, for example the macroprudential policy, supervisory institutions aim to mitigate the effects of financial cycles and try to increase the resilience of financial systems. In doing so, supervisory institutions conduct macroprudential policy by monitoring and analyzing cyclical and structural systemic risks and evaluate the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments and measures that have been or are planned to be im-plemented. In this paper, we focus solely on borrower-based types of measures. A vast strand of literature examines the effectiveness of different types of BBM measures. However, little has been done in the direction of determining LSTI factors and to what extent they influence the development of the LSTI ratio. In this paper, we try to bridge this gap by introducing a synthetic LSTI calculation and examine how the factors affecting the LSTI ratio affected the LSTI ratio of borrowers that took out consumer or housing loans in Slovenia. We note that in Slovenia, the general growth in the incomes of consumers who took out a loan inhibited the growth of the average LSTI ratio. Factors affecting the LSTI ratio had an offsetting effect on the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a consumer loan, while factors affecting the LSTI ratio caused an increase in the LSTI ratio of consumers who took out a housing loan. One of the more important factors that influenced the growth of the LSTI ratio of consum-ers who took out a housing loan was the increase in the interest rate for housing loans.

14.06.2024