522 Documenta Praehistorica XLVII (2020) Introduction The process of cultural unification in prehistory made the world look similar, but not homogenous. This phenomenon may be compared with modern globalisation, although significant difference be- tween the two processes should be also highlighted. In archaic societies, as opposed to modern ones, cul- tural unification was much slower and took hun- dreds and thousands of years (Bauman 2001). In Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve, 4100–3600 cal BC Aleksandr Diachenko1, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka2, and Sergej Ryzhov3 1 National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of Archaeology, Kyiv, UA oleksandr.diachenko@gmail.com 2 Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Archaeology, Poznan, PL iwosob@amu.edu.pl 3 National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Institute of Archaeology, Kyiv, UA vshumova@ukr.net ABSTRACT – This paper questions the cycling nature of the unification and diversity of pottery forms through a case study of ceramics of the Western Tripolye culture in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve in modern Ukraine. We identified the cultural cycle representing the transition from more unified ceramic assemblages to more diverse ones, and then back to more unified assemblages. This cultural cycle is disturbed by the increase in the diversity of pottery sets at three of ten subsequent time periods we have analysed. The obtained results are discussed in frames of deterministic expla- nations and the dynamic behaviour of complex systems. IZVLE∞EK – V ≠lanku se spra∏ujemo o cikli≠ni naravi poenotenja in raznolikosti kerami≠nih oblik s pomo≠jo ∏tudijskega primera lon≠enine iz zahodne tripoljske kulture na obmo≠ju ju∫nega medre≠ja Buga in Dnepra v sodobni Ukrajini. Prepoznali smo kulturni cikel, ki predstavlja prehod iz bolj po- enotenih kerami≠nih zbirov k ve≠ji raznolikosti ter prehod nazaj k bolj enotnemu zbiru. Ta kulturni cikel zmoti nara∏≠anje raznolikosti lon≠eninskih zbirov v treh od desetih zaporednih ≠asovnih obdo- bjih, ki smo jih analizirali. Dobljene rezultate obravnavamo v okviru deterministi≠nih razlag in di- nami≠nem vedenju kompleksnih sistemov. KEY WORDS – cultural cycles; unification; diversity; complex systems; pottery assemblages; Cucuteni- Tripolye cultural complex; Western Tripolye culture KLJU∞NE BESEDE – kulturni cikli; poenotenje; raznolikost; kompleksni sistemi; zbiri lon≠enine; kul- turni kompleks Cucuteni-Tripolye; zahodna kultura Tripolye Pristop k poenotenju in raznolikosti zbirov lon;enine> primer keramike zahodne kulture Tripolye v ju/nem medre;ju Buga in Dnepra v ;asu 4100–3600 pr. n. [t. DOI> 10.4312\dp.47.30 Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug ... 523 sented by Oswald Spengler, who claimed that his- tory does not have any universal laws, but that each cultural item has its own laws and goes through certain phases – from the rise and peak, to its fall and destruction (Spengler 2014). In sociology, the first theory of historical cycles was introduced by Vilfredo Pareto in the 19th century. In his view, a social system in constant motion rep- resents a smooth transition from a state of equilib- rium to destabilization, and to a collapse of the equi- librium and the re-establishment of a state of equi- librium (Pareto 1975). These four stages of develop- ment were also used by Karl Marx and later by Gor- don Childe in one of his most important works, titled ‘Man Makes Himself’, published in 1936 (Lech 1999). In modern sociology, the most inter- esting cyclic theory was formulated by Piterim So- rokin in ‘Social and Cultural Dynamics’, published in the late 1930s (Sorokin 1937). According to this, the social world consists of holistic socio-cultural systems. The main element of each system is the cul- tural mentality, on which other elements of the sy- stem depend. In other words, the history of human- kind is the cycle of changes of cultural mentality. Therefore, the shape of history is not linear, but is defined by the recurring rhythm of cultural chan- ges. The mechanism of changes is regulated by the internal capabilities of each socio-cultural system. Worth highlighting here is that there is a limit to the possibility of cultural development, beyond which a given cultural mentality is exhausted, loses the possibility of expansion and is not able to develop. Then a syncretic mentality appears containing both elements of the previous and new cultural mentality in order to give way to the newly emerging cultural mentality, which at that moment has an expansive and creative potential. And so the cycle goes on and on (Sorokin 1937). External factors, such as environ- ment, diffusion or conquest are of secondary impor- tance – those can influence the length of the phases of each cycle, but are not able to replace its endoge- nous logic (Sztompka 2012). The humanities and social sciences, including ar- chaeology, consider different concepts of time. The first concept, so-called event history is mainly relat- ed to political events. Another, cyclical time, refers to business cycles (see below). The last concept, lon- gue durée, characterizes changes in social structures and the history of civilisations. In this case studies cover a period of several centuries (Braudel 1999). The idea of longue durée was used, among the oth- ers, by Charles Cobb (1991) to identify the pheno- many cases cultural unification was accompanied by the formation of numerous cultural groups and re- gional variations characterized by Modderman as “diversity in uniformity” (1988). This paper examines the cycling nature of the unifi- cation and diversity of pottery forms through a case study of ceramics of the Western Tripolye culture in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve in modern Ukraine. First, we will briefly review the concept of cycles in philosophy, natural and social sciences, complementing the earlier review of Detlef Gronen- born and co-authors (Gronenborn et al. 2017). Se- cond, we will present our sample and methodology of approaching unification and diversity. Third, we will discuss the results and their implications for fur- ther research in archaeology. Cycles in natural and social phenomena Cambridge Dictionary (online) defines a cycle as “a complete set of events that repeat themselves re- gularly in the same order, or a regularly repeated period of time”. The first attempts at the depiction socio-political and economic events as cycling are known from the philosophers of Ancient Greece (Liddel 2010). Among the most important historians who described the development of the Roman Em- pire using the concept of cycle was Polybius (Kimla 2009). His ideas, and particularly the elements of degenerationism, were adapted centuries later by the Renaissance thinker Niccolò Machiavelli (Kenny 2005). A systematic approach to history as a series of recurring cycles then started in the 19th century. It was assumed that history has a repetitive rhythm, that no historical events are completely unique, as after some time the course of history returns to its starting point, or at least to states similar to those that took place earlier. What happens now is thus not a culmination, but only a transitional stage of the process (Sztompka 2012). The Russian philosopher Nikolai Danilevskiy, in his work titled ‘Russia and Europe’, stated that the issue of development refers not to humankind as a whole but to civilisations. Each civilisation goes through a normal life cycle. The first stage is the oc- currence of civilisation as a synthesis of previously scattered cultural elements. The second is the achie- vement of real cultural and political distinctiveness, the third stage is the blossoming of civilisation, and the fourth is stagnation and apathy. Finally, the fifth is the break-down and the fall of the civilisation (Da- nilevskiy 1895). A very similar approach was pre- Aleksandr Diachenko, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka, and Sergej Ryzhov 524 mena responsible for cultural chan- ges among prehistoric societies in American Middle West. Another concept from Fernand Brau- del, directly related to the longue durée, is based on the idea of cen- tre and periphery (Braudel 1992). This concept was further developed by Immanuel Wallerstein (1974) in his world system theory. He distin- guished three stages of human deve- lopment. The first is the epoch of ‘mini-systems’, small self-sufficient communities which are typical of hunter-gatherers societies. The next stage is the ‘epoch of empires’, and the last one is the ‘global system’. It is worth highlighting that these systems consist of central, peripheral and mar- ginal zones which are related to each other. The changes in the centre are mirrored by those in the periphery and vice-versa. This concept is often used by archaeologists, especially in research concerning the Bronze and Iron Ages in Europe (e.g., Kristian- sen 1994; Sherratt 1994; Kadrow 2001; Kristian- sen, Larsson 2005). The idea of cycles has also been widely adapted by natural scientists to report various phenomena. One of the first was Milutin Milankovi≤, who described long-term climate changes caused by changes in the position of Earth in relation to the Sun, the so-called Milankovitch cycles. This theory explains the ice ages that repeatedly occurred in the geological past, as well as the climate changes which may occur in the future (Hays et al. 1976; Campisano 2002). The idea of cyclical phenomena was used to recognize the glacial-interglacial cycle of vegetation changes (Fig. 1; Iversen 1958), solar cycles (increas- ing sun irradiance every 11 years – Hathaway et al. 1999) and their in- fluences on human disease and adap- tability (Davis, Lowell 2006); to iden- tify earthquakes cycles (O’Malley et al. 2017; Galvez et al. 2019) or to explain epidemic cycles (Althouse, Hébert-Dufresne 2014). However, we should also admit that there are critics of cycles in the natural scien- ces, including the cycling nature of earthquakes (Bak 1996). To a cer- tain extent, human beings ‘look for’ cycling behaviour in non-cycling phe- nomena, trying to predict negative events and thus become protected from their im- pacts (Bak 1996). The other widely known cycles are business and product life cycles. Both are used by economists to describe fluctuations in economic system and the sales of individual products. Business cycles occur- ring in the economy represent wide changes in to- tal output, incomes and employment, usually last- ing from two to ten years. We can distinguish two main phases of business cycles – expansion and re- cession – with peaks and troughs marking the turn- ing points (Fig. 2). A key important observation is that there no identical cycles, and the precise pre- diction of their duration and timing is not possible (Samuelson, Nordhaus 1995). Very similar to the aforementioned cycle is the pro- duct life cycle, characterizing the period in which the product is presented to the market. This case also includes four stages: introduction, growth, ma- turity and decline (Fig. 3; Altkorn 2004). Fig. 1. Glacial and post-glacial cycles (redrawn from Iversen 1958). Fig. 2. A scheme of business cycle (redrawn from Samuelson, Nord- haus 1995). Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug ... 525 It is worth noticing that, regardless of the field the concept of cycle is applied to, four distinct phases of changes are distinguished. This phenomenon resem- bles the Aristotle’s quartet, which he adopted from Plato, although it appears even earlier with Empedo- cles. This earlier quartet distinguished four elements, namely earth, air, fire and water, which can be set alongside the previous concepts of change presented by Thales, Anaximander, Heraclitus and Xenophanes (Fig. 4; Ball 2004). Adaptive cycles are also widely applicable to describe patterns of changes in complex systems, both in eco- systems and social systems. Ecologists have noticed that each cycle consists of four phases: rapid growth, conservation, release and renewal (Fig. 5). The key- point in this case is an assumption about the dyna- mics of structural and functional properties and also processes. It means we are able to distinguish peri- ods of growth, destruction and de- composition varying over scales of space and time (Angeler et al. 2015). Further development of the idea of adaptive cycles indicates that they mirror the unavoidable dynamics of complex adaptive systems, resulting in the internal process of self-orga- nization and evolution along time (Sundstorm, Allen 2019). Over the last two decades the con- cept of adaptive cycles was borrow- ed from socioeconomics and ecology and applied in many others fields, including social sciences and the hu- manities. For instance, this concept was used by Jared M. Diamond (2005) to approach the rise and fall of pre-historic, ancient and modern societies. It can be also applied to recognize changes in current west- ern societies, driven by factors such as technology, industry or digitization (Gilpin 2000). Adaptive cycles are also being investigated in archa- eology. The leitmotif of these studies is the state- ment made by Gunderson and Holling that “Resi- lience is the ability of the system to return to the original state after disturbance” (Gunderson, Hol- ling 2002). Andreas Zimmermann (2012) proposed using the term cultural cycles to refer to Central Eu- ropean prehistory, especially in relation to agrarian societies. The crucial results of his research are that: (a) cultural cycles caused by internal factors such as the dynamics of social and economic relations are an alternative to external ones, i.e. climate fluctua- Fig. 3. Product life cycle curve (redrawn from Alt- korn 2004 with modifications). Fig 4. Aristoteles’ quartet. The four elements of Em- pedocles, imbued with two qualities, by means of which they could be transformed (redrawn from Ball 2004). Fig. 5. Graphical representation of the four phases of the adaptive cycles. r rapid growth; K conservation; W release; a renewal. The cycles mirroring changes in two properties: Y axis: the potential that is inherent in the accumulated resources of biomass and nu- trients; X axis: the degree of connectedness among controlling vari- ables (see Gunderson, Holling 2002.6–8, Fig. 1). Aleksandr Diachenko, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka, and Sergej Ryzhov 526 tions; (b) cultural memory and traditions are piv- otal factors that influence the cultural system; (c) cultural evolution is marked by stages and tradi- tions; (d) the complexity of cultural systems is no- ticeable by the non-linear changes over the middle and long-term time scales. The concept of ‘adaptive cycle’ was also used by Gronenborn and co-authors (2014) in a study of LBK development in Western Europe. More recently, they applied the theory of adaptive cycles to recognize the population dynam- ics and social resilience strategies in early farming societies of SW Central Europe (Gronenborn et al. 2017; 2018). Following the studies conducted by Gronenborn and his co-authors, our paper focuses at the following questions: (1) are ceramic styles de- veloped in cycles from more unified to more diverse, and then back to more unified? and (2) what fac- tors impact the transitions from more unified to more diverse and from more diverse to more uni- fied pottery assemblages? Data input and estimations Method The philosophical connotations suggested for ‘hey- day’ and ‘decline’, as broadly presented above, in most cases correspond to widely used archaeologi- cal categories of ‘unification’ (approximating ‘birth’ and ‘death’) and ‘diversity’ (approximating ‘growth’). Both of these categories can be quantified with the application of Claude Shannon’s diversity index (Shannon 1948). Providing numerical values for ‘unified’ and ‘diverse’, this approach suggests a gra- dual transition from one to the other as a reasonable alternative to the widely accepted understanding of the two categories as binary oppositions. The utility of the diversity index is confirmed by its successful applications in archaeology (e.g., Justeson 1973; Di- ckens Jr., Fraser 1984; Bevan et al. 2012; Furholt 2012; Crema 2015; Gronenborn et al. 2017; 2018; Drost, Vander Linden 2018). Shannon’s index is estimated as: (eq. 1) where H is the entropy taken for a measure of di- versity, pi is the proportion of elements belonging to the i-th type (Spi = 1), and K is the normalizing coefficient (Shannon 1948). Data input We have tested the possible cyclic nature of the de- velopment of pottery styles using an example of ce- ramic assemblages of Western Tripolye culture (he- reinafter – WTC) sites in the Southern Bug and Dnie- per interfluve, modern Ukraine dated to c. 4100– 3600 cal BC (Fig. 6). This region is widely known for Tripolye mega-sites, the largest population agglom- erations in Neolithic Europe, i.e. Nebelevka, Dobro- vody, Chicherkozovka, Talianki and Maidanetske (e.g., Menotti, Korvin-Piotrovkiy 2012; Müller et al. 2016b). Materials from the mega-sites of Chicher- kozovka and Talianki are included into our sample. Taxonomically WTC belongs to the Cucuteni-Tripol- ye cultural complex (hereinafter – CTCC) spread from the Carpathians in the west to the eastern bank of Dnieper in the east, c. 5000–3000/2950 cal BC. The internal structure of WTC includes ‘genetic lines’ subdivided into local groups, some of which also include site-types (e.g., Dergachev 1980; Ryzhov 2007). It should be noted that the term ‘genetic lines’ proposed by Dergachev reflects the similarity and change in ceramic assemblages of local groups replacing each other over time (Dergachev 1980). The difference in pottery styles and duration of exi- stence decreases from the top down in this taxono- mic hierarchy. Based on pottery seriation, Sergii Ryzhov (1993; 2000a; 2007; 2015) included the sites which are analysed in this paper into Vladimirovskaya, Nebe- levskaya and Tomashovskaya local groups. These three local groups form the Vladimirovsko-Toma- shovskaya line of development of WTC. Phases (if not subdivided into stages) and stages of develop- ment of local groups include synchronous settle- ments. Synchronous ceramic assemblages have iden- tical sets of pottery forms, while the percentage of vessels of each type across different sites is similar, varying only up to a few percent. Therefore, signi- ficant changes in relative frequencies estimated for pottery of different shapes and ornamentation sche- mes indicate the chronological difference between the sites. Secondary characteristics, such as modifi- cations in ornamentation schemes or ‘signs’ on pot- tery, may be considered as markers of either chro- nological or spatial differences (Ryzhov 1999). Initially the Vladimirovskaya group settlements were not subdivided into phases of development, while two phases were distinguished in the Nebelevskaya group. The ceramic assemblage of the settlement of Gordashevka 1 indicated its intermediate chronolo- gical position between the Vladimirovskaya and Ne- belevskaya local groups (Ryzhov 1993). The Toma- shovskaya group sites were subdivided into four stages of development (Ryzhov 2000a). Further ap- H K p pi i i N = − = ∑ log 1 Fig. 6. Western Tripolye sites in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve. Site num- bering: 1 Popudnia; 2 Khri- stinovka 1; 3 Tomashovka, 4 Cherpovody 2; 5 Gorodni- tsa; 6 Kocherzhintsy-Pan- kovka; 7 Dobrovody; 8 Sush- kovka; 9 Korzhova Slobod- ka; 10 Yatranovka 1; 11 Pe- regonovka; 12 Romanovka; 13 Moshurov 1; 14 Talianki; 15 Maidanetske; 16 Ostro- vets; 17 Nebelevka; 18 Vladi- mirovka; 19 Polonistoe; 20 Tsyurupy; 21 Leshchevka; 22 Fedorovka; 23 Staraya Bu- da; 24 Nemorozh; 25 Gorda- shevka 1; 26 Talnoe 1; 27 Talnoe 3; 28 Talnoe 2; 29 Rassohovatka; 30 Bondarka 2; 31 Glubochek; 32 Kolodistoe 1; 33 Kolodistoe 2; 34 Goncharykha; 35 Krivye Kolena; 36 Peschane; 37 Yampol; 38 Komarovka; 39 Peremozhintsy; 40 Kvitki 2; 41 Valiava; 42 Nezamozhnik; 43 Olshana 1; 44 Khlystunovka; 45 Buda Orlovetskaya; 46 Ksaverovo; 47 Zelenaya Dibrova; 48 Novo-Ukrainka; 49 Chichir- kozovka; 50 Vasilkov; 51 Lebedin; 52 Andreevka; 53 Likareve (Base of the map by Ben Jennings, created using STRM data and ArcWorld River and Lake Overlay). Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug ... 527 plication of spatial statistics to the same dataset al- lowed synchronization of the latest settlements of the Vladmirovskaya group with the earliest sites of the Nebelevskaya group, and the latest settlements of the Nebelevskaya group with the earliest sites of the Tomashovskaya group. Moreover, spatial statis- tics allowed the identification of three subsequent stages of development of the Vladimirovskaya group, with the third one including two sub-stages, three subsequent stages of the second phase of Nebelev- skaya group and two subsequent phases of the third phase of the Tomashovskaya group (Diachenko, Menotti 2012). These results of the spatial analysis find agreement with second-order differences in pot- tery styles (Ryzhov 2000a; 2015). The overall fine- grained chronology is confirmed by the correspon- dence analysis of the ceramics (Müller et al. 2016a). In order to avoid misunderstandings, the chronolo- gical division of sites referring to different phases and stages may be considered in frames of subse- quent ‘analytical periods’ labelled from 1 to 10 (e.g., Diachenko, Zu- brow 2015). Figure 7 summarizes the taxonomy and chronology of the analysed WTC sites. Here we analyse quantitative chan- ges in the shapes of the ‘table cera- mics’ produced using clay mass with an admixture of small-grained sand (Fig. 8). We consider the distribution of the main types of pottery morphology represented by goblets, goblet- shaped vessels, sphere-conical and biconical vessels, amphorae, pear-shaped vessels, lids, craters and cra- ter-shaped vessels, pots, binocular-shaped vessels, lad- les and vessels on trays (e.g., Ryzhov 2012). Bowls were deliberately excluded from the analysis because small fragments of bowls are easier to distinguish typologically than ceramic fragments of any other type. Therefore, if bowls are included into the esti- mations, the overall distribution may be biased de- pending on the extent of pottery fragmentation in some collections. The same will be introduced more precisely below. Analytical period 1 is represented by ceramics com- ing from surveys at the single earliest WTC site in Fig. 7. Taxonomy and chronology of Western Tripolye sites in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve. settlement of Gordashevka 1 Aleksandr Diachenko, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka, and Sergej Ryzhov 528 the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve, the mega- site of Fedorovka (Ryzhov 2015). Analytical periods 2 and 3, or the second and third stages of the Vla- dimirovskaya group, were distinguished base on spa- tial statics and second-order criteria in pottery seri- ation (Diachenko, Menotti 2012; Ryzhov 2015). Un- fortunately, the data for the precise estimation of pottery types for these analytical periods was not available to us. Therefore, the related values were contingently reduced to zero in our analysis. Analytical periods 4 and 5 correspond to the first phase and first stage of the second phase of the Ne- belevskaya group, respectively. The numbers esti- mated for analytical period 4 are represented by the mean values which were obtained for pottery types coming from Houses 1, 2 and 3 excavated at the set- tlement of Peschanoe (Ryzhov 1991; Chernovol, Ry- zhov 2006). The numbers estimated for analytical period 5 are the mean values which were obtained for ceramic assemblages coming from Houses 1 and 2 excavated at the large settlement of Glubochek (Ryzhov 2000b). The subsequent five analytical periods correspond to the first and second phases, the first and second stages of the third phase, and the fourth phase of the Tomashovskaya local group. The numbers esti- mated for analytical period 6 are the averages ob- tained for pottery collections which resulted from the surveys and excavations conducted in 1920s at the sites Popudnia, Staraya Buda and Sushkovka in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve (Ryzhov 2000a). The values for analytical period 7 were esti- mated from the ceramic assemblage coming from House 1 excavated at the mega-site of Chicherkozov- ka (Ryzhov 2000a). The numbers estimated for ana- lytical period 8 are the mean values obtained from the pottery collections which come from excavations of Houses 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 at Talianki (from excavations in the 1980s directed by Vladimir Kruts; Ryzhov 2000a). Analytical period 9 is represented by the mean values obtained for a set of vessels from the excavations of House 1 at the small site of Moshurov 1, the off-spring of the mega- site of Maidanetske (Ryzhov 2000a). Finally, the numbers for analytical period 10 are the mean val- ues estimated for ceramic collections which come from surveys at the settlements Bondarka 2 and Gon- charykha (Ryzhov 1999; 2000a). The number of pottery fragments at each analytical period in our sample varies from c. 1000–2000 (analytical periods 1, 6, 7, 9 and 10) to c. 4000–6000 (analytical periods 4 and 5). In the case of analytical period 8, the sample includes c. 25 000 pottery fragments. Ordinarily one would normalize the estimated values in order to obtain statisti- cally significant results. However, this is not necessary in our case for the following reasons. Pottery of different shapes is distributed in approximately the same per- centages in dwellings at synchro- nous settlements. Therefore, the relative number of ceramics be- longing to different morphologi- cal types does not change, when the absolute number of fragments increases with adding an assem- blage from a house or two from the same site or some other con- temporaneous settlement. For example, the percentages of dif- ferent pottery types in Talianki estimated as a mean for the as- semblages from 11 houses do not Fig. 8. Western Tripolye pottery shapes: 1, 3 goblets; 2 goblet-shaped vessel; 4, 7 amphorae; 5 sphere-conical vessel; 6 biconical vessel; 8 pear-shaped vessel; 9 lead; 10, 11 craters; 12 binocular-shaped vessel (re-drawn from Ryzhov 2015). Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug ... 529 change with excluding ceramic sets from several houses from the sample. In other words, the mean percentage of pottery types from seven, nine or 11 houses remains the same. The relative frequencies of pottery in unbiased surface collections are also similar to the distributions in house inventories. For instance, the percentage of forms estimated from c. 2000 ceramic fragments from House 1 in Chichirko- zovka corresponds to the percentage of forms esti- mated from several thousand ceramic fragments from surface collection (the surveys of Ivan Girnyk, with data analysed by Sergey Ryzhov). Moreover, the WTC ‘assembly places’, which differ from other houses by their size and location in settlement struc- ture are characterized by the same house invento- ries as other dwellings at particular sites (e.g., Neb- bia et al. 2018; Hofmann et al. 2019). The number of vessels counted for each type was re- calculated into relative frequencies. Then we esti- mated the values of Shannon’s diversity index for each analytical period. The results obtained are re- presented in Fig. 9. The results of the estimations are discussed in more detail below. Results The development of pottery shapes of WTC in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve corresponds to the cultural cycle representing the transition from more unified ceramic assemblages to more diverse, and then back to more unified (Fig. 9). A possible sample effect on the analysed trend may be assumed considering the highest diversity of ceramics at ana- lytical periods 4 and 5, which correspond to the high number of pottery fragments counted for this time range, while the decrease in diversity from period 4 to period 5 may be explained by the reduction in the number of analysed house inventories from three to two. However, the highest absolute number of pottery frag- ments counted for Talianki (analyti- cal period 8) corresponds to the low- er diversity index than found with the values obtained for Peschanoe and Glubochek (analytical periods 4 and 5, respectively). Moreover, this highest absolute number was es- timated from eleven house invento- ries, significantly exceeding the num- ber of houses analysed from Pescha- noe and Glubochek (Fig. 9: analytical periods 4, 5, 8). The diversity index estimated for Talianki is also some- what lower than the value estimated for a single house inventory from Moshurov 1 (analytical period 9). It should be noted that the values of H estimat- ed for the first and last analytical period may be somewhat lower than they have to be due to the ce- ramic collections obtained from surveys, while the highest diversity index estimated for analytical pe- riod 6 may be caused by the number of sampled sites. However, the three sites referring to analytical period 6 are located in the same micro-region, while the diversity index estimated for pottery assemblages obtained from these settlements is significantly high- er than the diversity index estimated for the set of pottery coming from two settlements located in diffe- rent micro-regions and referring to analytical period 10 (Fig. 9: analytical periods 6 and 10; see also Dia- chenko, Menotti 2012). Thus, we conclude that the particular values of H estimated for different analy- tical periods might be somewhat impacted by the sample effects, but these effects do not change the overall trend in the transition from more unified ce- ramic assemblages to more diverse, and then back to more unified. The disturbances in the cultural cycle are represent- ed by significant increases in the diversity of pottery assemblages at analytical periods 4 and 6 and in- crease in diversity at analytical period 9 (Fig. 9). We should admit that the increase in diversity repre- sents relatively short-term changes in the system, while the subsequent transition to uniformity fits the earlier trends in the development of pottery styles (Fig. 9: analytical periods 4 to 10). Since both cases of the increase in pottery diversity correspond to the initial phases of the Nebelevskaya and Toma- shovskaya groups, respectively, the identical distri- bution of pottery types over time is expected to be identified for Vladimirovskaya group in further stu- dies. Fig. 9. Unification and diversity of Western Tripolye pottery shapes. Aleksandr Diachenko, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka, and Sergej Ryzhov 530 Let us now consider the factors which might have impacted the development of pottery shapes repre- sented in the obtained distribution of the values of the diversity index. The usual suspects for the cultu- ral transformations are climate change, migrations, changes in social organization, economic producti- vity or spatial demography, and the ‘isolation by di- stance’ principle. Table 1 summarizes the compar- isons between shifts in environmental circumstan- ces, socio-economic and demographic development which might have impacted the changes in ceramic styles and the increase or decrease in diversity of pottery styles of WTC in the Southern Bug and Dnie- per interfluve. In each case changes are compared to the preceding analytical period. The increase in pottery diversity during analytical periods 4 and 6 correlates with migrations of the WTC population from the Dniester region to the Southern Bug and Dnieper, which are indicated by the demographic estimations and observations of pottery ornamentation (Ryzhov 2007; Diachenko 2016). One more migration of WTC groups from the Dniester and Bug interfluve to the analysed region occurring in analytical period 9 correlates with the slight increase in ceramic diversity compared to the value obtained for analytical period 8 (Tkachuk 2008; Diachenko 2016). We should note that the number of people involved in the migration in ana- lytical period 9 is also approximated to the smaller values than the number of migrants who came to the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve during analytical periods 4 and 6. Since the new arrivals did not settle separately but mixed with the popu- lation of local settlements, it is reasonable to con- clude that they contributed to the local pottery as- semblages with their traditions. Further on, synthe- sis of different traditions resulted in more unified pottery styles. The possible influence of the other listed factors does not correlate with the observed dynamics of the cultural cycle (Tab. 1). Applying the ‘isolation by distance’ principle suggested by Stephen Shennan and co-authors (2015) to our dataset, one would ex- pect the increase in pottery diversity with the in- crease of the occupied territory. However, WTC reached its largest territorial extent in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve during analytical period 5, which is characterized by the lower value of the diversity index than the preceding analytical period 4 and the subsequent analytical period 6. Mean- while, we cannot exclude that the effect of the ‘isola- tion by distance principle’ somewhat increased the value of the diversity index estimated for analytical period 6. The settlement dynamics of WTC populations in the analysed region represent two different trends chang- ing one another over time (Diachenko, Menotti 2017). The largest settlements of the Vladimirovska- ya and Nebelevskaya groups, Fedorovka and Nebe- levka, respectively, are dated to the initial phases of these local groups. Both of these large settlements were formed as the result of migrations to the re- gion. After abandoning Fedorovka, its former inha- bitants built the Vladimirovka and Peregonovka set- tlements, both of nearly equal size and significantly smaller than Fedorovka. Leaving Nebelevka, its for- mer inhabitants built the somewhat smaller settle- ment of Glubochek and several medium and small size settlements in the region. The settlement dyna- mics of the Tomashovskaya group sites in analytical periods 6, 7, 8 and 9 are characterized by the in- crease of the subsequent largest settlements in size, while the number of inhabitants was increasing at the annual rate of 0.3% (Diachenko 2016; Diachen- ko, Menotti 2017). Both trends do not correlate with the changes in the values of the diversity index esti- mated for pottery shapes. According to the available proxies, around the end of the 3800s cal BC (analytical period 6) the climate changed from more arid in the preceding period to warmer and more humid (e.g., Anthony 2007; Dia- chenko 2010; Harper 2019; Harper et al. 2019). This climate shift probably impacted the increase in agricultural productivity in analytical periods 6–10 compared to analytical periods 1–5. Meanwhile, nei- ther climate change per se, nor its economic impacts. influenced the increase in diversity of ceramic styles. Except for the analytical period 6, the values of the diversity index indicate the trend of unification of pottery shapes (Fig. 9; Tab. 1). The available evi- dence on integrative architecture in Tripolye settle- ments shows complex decision-making rather than top-down centralized control (Hofmann et al. 2019). Conceptually this fits Anthony Giddens’ (2003) struc- turation theory and Piotr Sztompka’s (1991) concept of society as a process, in which social actions are based on human actions making and constantly changing social structures. According to these con- cepts, we should pay more attention to the daily practices, routines, habits, intentions, sex and age of pottery makers. Considering this variability in intra- social structures and actions, one would also expect an increase in ceramic diversity at least for the ana- lytical periods 6–9 characterized by a number of Approaching the unification and diversity of pottery assemblages> the case of Western Tripolye culture ceramics in the Southern Bug ... 531 chronologically subsequent mega-sites increasing in population size. However, the values estimated with equation 1 demonstrate the opposite trend (Fig. 9). Conclusion and discussion The results obtained in this study indicate that the development of pottery shapes of the WTC in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve passed through a cultural cycle from unification to diversity and then back to unification. This cultural cycle is disturbed by the increase in diversity of pottery forms at three analytical periods, which may be explained by mi- grations into the analysed region. However, none of the possible factors which might impact the de- velopment of ceramics have shown a correlation with the cultural cycle in WTC pottery styles. At first glance, the discovered cultural cycle conceptually fits the ideas of Danilevskiy, Spengler and Sorokin (Danilevskiy 1895; Sorokin 1937; Spengler 2014). Considering the results obtained for the develop- ment of Neolithic ceramic assemblages (Gronenborn et al. 2017; 2018; Gjesfjeld et al. 2020), which are similar to the results of our case study, we question the cyclic nature of cultural development following the stages of ‘unification’ – ‘diversity’ – ‘unification’ in the results of the dynamic behaviour of culture as a complex system. In this respect, it is reasonable to assume that the ‘hidden cycling trend’ resulting from non-linear complex dynamics may to a certain extent be impacted by different external factors, but remain the same in its main properties. By definition, the behaviour of complex systems is caused by their internal dynamics (e.g., Bentley 2003). Therefore, the modelling of complex cultural dynamics is a cru- cial issue in further work on prehistoric culture. Our case study also raises the question of the utility of approaches which in- clude both qualitative and quantitative characteristics of datasets to pottery se- riation. This also includes the detailed chronologies produced by data analysis accounting for the relative frequencies (or percentages) of artefacts belonging to different types which find their confirmation in absolute dating, because the underlying methodolo- gy is in fact a truncated version of Shannon’s diver- sity index. With updating such approaches to con- sider the diversity index, we would expect an in- crease in the number of cultural cycles identified in archaeological data. Further work on complex cultural dynamics requires consideration of the cultural hierarchy and corre- sponding improvements in methodology. We should note that the related studies are being conducted by Ray J. Rivers and his collaborators (as seen in the pa- per presented by Rivers at the 25th Neolithic Semi- nar in Ljubljana). One of the most important theore- tical and methodological challenges behind further studies on complex cultural behaviour is the need to distinguish between complex non-linear behaviour and the changes due to the impact of external factors. Analytical Shannon’s Climate Migrations Changes Changes in ‘Isolation by period diversity change in economic settlement distance’ index productivity systems principle 1 N\A N\A + N\A N\A N\A 2 | s s s s + 3 | s s s s S 4 ≠ s + s + + 5 Ø s s s + + 6 ≠ + + ≠ + + 7 Ø + s ≠ s S 8 Ø s s s s S 9 ≠ s + s s S 10 Ø s s s s S ‘≠’ – increased from the preceding analytical period, ‘Ø’ – decreased from the preceding analytical period, ‘+’ – changes occurred, ‘s’ situation remained stable, ‘|’ no data avail- able, ‘N\A’ not applicable Tab. 1. Changes in the diversity of WTC pottery styles in the Southern Bug and Dnieper interfluve and their possible causing factors. This research was funded by the National Science Center of Poland, grant 2018/29/B/HS3/01201 awar- ded to Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka. We are grateful to Mihael Budja for his kind invitation to present and discuss the results of this study at the 25th Neolithic Seminar in Ljubljana, and to the anonymous revie- wers for their valuable comments and suggestions. Many thanks are also due to Benjamin Jennings who created the base of map 6 for us. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Aleksandr Diachenko, Iwona Sobkowiak-Tabaka, and Sergej Ryzhov 532 References Althouse B. M., Hébert-Dufresne L. 2014. Epidemic cycles driven by host behaviour. Journal of the Royal Society. Interface 11: 20140575. doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.0575 Altkorn J. 2004. Podstawy marketingu. Instytut Marke- tingu. Kraków. Angeler D. G., Allen C. R., Garmestani A. S., Gunderson L. H., Hjerne O., and Winder M. 2015. Quantifying the adap- tive cycle. PLOS One 10(12): 0146053. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0146053 Anthony D. W. 2007. 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