6. MAJ 2005 6 MAY 2005 št./No 128 17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI MINING AND MANUFACTURING št./No 16 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH, SLOVENIJA, APRIL 2005 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN MANUFACTURING, SLOVENIA, APRIL 2005 Desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih je bila v aprilu 2005 za 3 odstotne točke nižja kot v marcu 2005. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani in lanskim povprečjem je vrednost padla za 10 oziroma 4 odstotne točke. In April 2005 the seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator in manufacturing fell by 3 percentage points compared to March 2005. In comparison to April 2004 and last year’s average the value fell by 10 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja so vplivala nižja proizvodna pričakovanja in nižja raven skupnih naročil, zaloge končnih izdelkov pa so ostale enake. The confidence indicator was influenced by the fall of production expectations and overall order books, while the stocks of finished products remained the same as in the previous month. Kazalci stanj so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem večinoma izboljšali. Pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece niso ugodna. Observed indicators for appreciation of the situation improved compared to the previous month. The expectations for the next three months are not favourable. Slika 1: KAZALEC ZAUPANJA 1) V SLOVENIJI IN EU2), JANUAR 1996 - APRIL 2005 Chart 1: CONFIDENCE INDICATOR 1) IN SLOVENIA AND EU 2), JANUARY 1996 – APRIL 2005 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 desezonirani podatki - Slovenija / seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU / seasonally adjusted data - EU dolgoletno povprečje / long-term average ©SURS 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov (obrnjen predznak). Podatki so desezonirani. Confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on production expectations, total order books and stocks of finished goods (the latter with inverted sign). Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm. Podatki za EK za zadnji mesec niso na voljo./ Data for EU for the last month are not available. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 2 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI, JANUAR 1996 - APRIL 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA, JANUARY 1996 - APRIL 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3-4 mesecih Expectations in the next 3-4 months -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Proizvodnja / Production -20 0 20 40 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana proizvodnja / Production ex pectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Izvozna naročila / Ex port order-books -20 0 20 40 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovan izvoz / Ex pected ex port order-books -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Skupna naročila / Total order-books -20 0 20 40 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje / Ex pected total demand -10 0 10 20 30 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Zaloge končnih izdelkov / Stocks of finished goods -30 -20 -10 0 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane cene / Selling price ex pectations 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ©SURS mesec / month Zagotovljena proizvodnja / Assured production -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje1 / Expected employment1 osnovni podatki / raw data desezonirani podatki / seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje/ long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / Seasonal component is not included. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 3 3. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI IN EU, JANUAR 1996 - APRIL 20051) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA AND EU, JANUARY 1996 - APRIL 20051) Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3-4 mesecih Expectations in the next 3-4 months -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Proizvodnja / Production -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana proizvodnja / Production ex pectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Izvozna naročila / Ex port order-books -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovan izvoz² / Ex pected ex port order-books² -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Skupna naročila / Total order-books -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje² / Ex pected total demand² -5 5 15 25 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Zaloge končnih izdelkov / Stocks of finished goods -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane cene / Selling price ex pectations -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ©SURS mesec / month Zagotovljena proizvodnja² / Assured production² -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje² / Ex pected employ ment² Slovenija / Slovenia EU 1) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm. Podatki o EU za tekoči mesec nam niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for current month for EU are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Kazalec opazujejo v EU vsake tri mesece. / The indicator in EU is observed every three months. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 4 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 4. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI IN EU, 1. ČETRTLETJE 1996 - 2. ČETRTLETJE 2005 - ČETRTLETNI PODATKI EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA AND EU, 1st QUARTER 1996 – 2nd QUARTER 2005 - QUARTERLY DATA 4.1 Omejitve v proizvodnji v Sloveniji Production obstacles in Slovenia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter šibko povpraševanje / weakness in demand ni omejitev / no limits težave s preskrbo / supply difficulties hude omejitve / severe obstacles © SURS Graf o omejitvah v proizvodnji prikazuje delež zaposlenih, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami problemov: - Skupina "šibko povpraševanje" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo probleme z nezadostnim domačim povpraševanjem, nezadostnim tujim povpraševanjem in/ali konkurenčnim uvozom. - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki nimajo nobenih proizvodnih težav. - Skupina "težave s preskrbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo probleme s pomanjkanjem delavcev, surovin, izdelkov, opreme in/ali finančne probleme. Ta skupina zajema še zaposlene, ki jih pri proizvodnji omejujeta tudi nejasna zakonodaja in negotove gospodarske razmere. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave tako z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: - Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient domestic and foreign demand and competitive imports. - Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits to production. - Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing shortage of labour in general, shortage of raw materials and semi-finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with unpaid bills, financial problems, unclear economic conditions. - Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 5 4.2 Ustreznost proizvodnih zmogljivosti glede na pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih, Slovenija in EU Assessment of current production capacities according to expected demand in the next 12 months, Slovenia and EU 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % © SURS 4.3 Izkoriščenost proizvodnih zmogljivosti v Sloveniji in v EU1 Current capacity utilisation in Slovenia and EU1 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % desezonirani podatki - Slovenija / seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU / seasonally adjusted data EU © SURS 1 Prikazana je povprečna stopnja izkoriščenosti (tehnično-tehnoloških, človeških itd.) / The chart shows the average capacity utalisation (technology, human resources, etc) 4.4 Konkurenčni položaj na domačem trgu, trgih držav članic EU in trgih zunaj EU2 Compatitative position on the domestic market, foreign market inside the EU and outside the EU2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % na domačem trgu / on the domestic market na trgih držav EU / on the markets inside the EU na trgih zunaj EU / on the markets outside the EU © SURS 2 Podatki so desezonirani. / Data are seasonally adjusted. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 6 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah (PA-IND/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (hereinafter: PA-IND/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in manufacturing and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in retail trade. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih izvajamo v Sloveniji od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing in Slovenia since April 1995 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v predelovalne dejavnosti, to je v oddelke Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) od 15 do 36, ter so bila izbrana v panel podjetij na podlagi dveh meril: − velikosti podjetja (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. We are monitoring units that are registered in manufacturing - divisions 15 to 36 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) and − the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Rezultate pa objavimo že okoli 20. v istem mesecu. Respondents are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. Results are published approximately on the 20th of the current month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika podjetja, 61 % srednjevelikih (ali 66 % zaposlenih) in 19 % malih podjetij (ali 23 % zaposlenih). Panelni vzorec pokriva 41 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 77 % zaposlenih v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The panel includes all large enterprises, 61% of medium-sized enterprises (or 66% of employees) and 19% of small enterprises (or 23% of employees); the panel covers 41% of the enterprises of the studied population or 77% of employees in manufacturing. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti, vsako četrtletje (januar, april, julij in oktober) pa mesečni anketi dodamo še sedem četrtletnih vprašanj. The survey is carried out monthly by mail; we include seven more questions to the monthly survey each quarter (January, April, July and October). UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giblje med 3 % in 15 % (povprečno 9 %). Non-responses are processed every month according to the harmonised methodology and vary between 3% and 15% (9% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Ko so prikazane daljše časovne vrste podatkov ali primerjave kazalcev z EU so vrednosti desezonirane. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki In the charts with longer time series or by comparisons with EU indicators, data are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for seasonal component, which include trend-cycle component and irregular Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 7 za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov je upoštevano časovno obdobje od maja 1995 do januarja 2005, pri časovnih vrstah pričakovan izvoz, pričakovano skupno povpraševanje in povprečno število mesecev zagotovljene proizvodnje od januarja 1997 do januarja 2005, pri časovni vrsti stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti od drugega četrtletja 1995 do prvega četrtletja 2005, pri časovnih vrstah konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu, konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske Unije in konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih izven Evropske Unije pa od prvega četrtletja 2001 do prvega četrtletja 2005. Zaradi narave podatkov se model za leto 2005 razlikuje v primerjavi z modelom za leto 2004 pri skupnih naročilih. Pri časovnih vrstah pričakovano zaposlovanje in stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. component. Data for EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from May 1995 to January 2005, the series expected export order books, expected total demand and average assured production from January 1997 to January 2005, the series level of capacity utilisation from the second quarter of 1995 to the first quarter of 2005, and the series competitive position on the domestic market, competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU and competitive position on the markets outside the EU from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2005. Because of the nature of data, the model for 2005 differs from the model used in 2004 by total order books. In the time series expected employment and level of capacity utilisation the seasonal component is not included. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on production expectation, assessment of overall order books and assessment of stocks of finished products (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in o predelovalnih dejavnostih, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Respondents participating in the survey receive the special information for division in which they are classified and for manufacturing. They receive it only if they responded in the current month. Drugim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni predelovalnih dejavnosti in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Podatki so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v predelovalnih dejavnostih in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si/. Other users can get data for manufacturing and its divisions and data for different size groups of enterprises. Data are published in the monthly Rapid Reports – Business tendency in manufacturing and in the database SI-STAT which is available on the http://www.stat.si/eng/. MESEČNA VPRAŠANJA MONTHLY QUESTIONS − Proizvodni ritem v opazovanem mesecu: živahnejši, enak, šibkejši? − Ocena ravni izvoznih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Ocena ravni skupnih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Ocena ravni zalog končnih izdelkov: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Pričakovana proizvodnja v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščala, nespremenjena, padala? − Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, nespremenjene, padale? − Pričakovano število zaposlenih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo nespremenjeno, zmanjšalo? − Pričakovan izvoz v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščal, nespremenjen, padal? − Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: krepilo, enako, slabelo? − Ob sedanjem proizvodnem ritmu je zagotovljena proizvodnja za: .... mesecev? − Production rhythm in the observed month: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? − Assessment of current export order books: above normal, normal, below normal? − Assessment of current total order books: above normal, normal, below normal? − Assessment of current stock of finished products: above normal, normal, below normal? − Production expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Selling prices expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Firm’s total employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Export orders expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Expected total demand over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Duration of production assured by current overall order books: for … months? ČETRTLETNA VPRAŠANJA QUARTERLY QUESTIONS − Omejitveni dejavniki v proizvodnji: ni omejitev, nezadostno domače povpraševanje, nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, konkurenčen uvoz, pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje surovin, pomanjkanje polizdelkov, pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme, neplačništvo, finančni problemi, nejasna gospodarska zakonodaja, negotove gospodarske razmere, ostalo? − Sedanje proizvodne zmogljivosti: prevelike, ustrezne, premajhne? − Sedanja stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti: .... odstotkov? − Limits to production: none, insufficient domestic demand, insufficient foreign demand, competitive imports, shortage of labour in general, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of raw materials, shortage of semi-finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with unpaid bills, financial problems, unclear economic legislation, uncertain economic conditions, other? − Assessment of current production capacity: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? − Current level of capacity utilisation: in percentage of full capacity? Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 8 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih izven Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Obseg novih naročil se je v zadnjih 3 mesecih: povečal, ostal nespremenjen, zmanjšal? − Competitive position on the domestic market over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − Competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − Competitive position on the markets outside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − New orders over the past 3 months: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? KOMENTAR COMMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih je bila v aprilu 2005 za 3 odstotne točke nižja kot v marcu 2005. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani in lanskim povprečjem je vrednost padla za 10 oziroma 4 odstotne točke. In April 2005 the seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator in manufacturing fell by 3 percentage points compared to March 2005. In comparison to April 2004 and last year’s average the value fell by 10 and 4 percentage points, respectively. PROIZVODNJA in PRIČAKOVANA PROIZVODNJA PRODUCTION and PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 8 odstotnih točk in 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the production indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 8 percentage points and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 4 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 7 odstotnih točk in za 6 odstotnih točk nižja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of production expectations for the next three months fell by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 7 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. IZVOZNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANI IZVOZ EXPORT ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED EXPORT ORDER BOOKS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni izvoznih naročil je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 6 odstotnih točk in za 4 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the export order books indicator was up by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 6 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega izvoza za naslednje 3 mesece je bila enaka kot pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 1 odstotno točko in 4 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of expected export in the next three months was the same as in the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 1 percentage point and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. SKUPNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANO SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE TOTAL ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED TOTAL DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni skupnih naročil se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 14 odstotnih točk in 4 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the overall order books indicator fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 14 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega skupnega povpraševanja za naslednje 3 mesece je bila za 2 odstotni točki višja kot pretekli mesec. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 2 odstotni točki in 4 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of expected total demand for the next three months rose by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was up by 2 percentage point and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. ZALOGE KONČNIH IZDELKOV STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni zalog končnih izdelkov je bila enaka kot pretekli mesec. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 10 odstotnih točk in 5 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the stocks of finished products indicator was the same as in the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was up by 10 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE CENE SELLING PRICE EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca cenovnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece je bila nižja za 4 odstotne točke glede na pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 8 odstotnih točk in 7 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of selling price expectations for the next three months fell by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 7 percentage points. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 9 ZAGOTOVLJENA PROIZVODNJA ASSURED PRODUCTION Ob aprilskem proizvodnem ritmu imajo podjetja zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju za 4,1 meseca. To je za 0.2 odstotni točki manj kot lani v tem mesecu in 3 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. With the same production rhythm as in April 2005, production in enterprises is assured on average for the next 4.1 months. This is 0.2 percentage points less than in April last year and 3 percentage points below last year’s average. Največ podjetij (18,8 %) ima proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za več kot 10 mesecev. Sledijo podjetja (18,3 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 2 meseca, in podjetja (17,4 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 3 mesece. Za pol meseca ima zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju 7,1 % podjetij, ob aprilskem proizvodnem ritmu pa nima zagotovljene proizvodnje v povprečju 2,4 % podjetij. In most enterprises (18.8%) production is assured for more than ten months. They are followed by enterprises whose production is assured for two months (18.3%) and those whose production is assured for three months (17.4%). Should the April production rhythm continue, 7.1% of enterprises have production assured for half a month while 2.4% of enterprises have no assured production. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Vrednost kazalca pričakovanj glede zaposlovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih je bila za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 3 odstotne točke in 3 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of expected employment for the next three months slid by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 3 percentage points. OMEJITVE V PROIZVODNJI LIMITS TO PRODUCTION Med omejitvenimi dejavniki v proizvodnji so prevladovali dejavniki iz skupine šibko povpraševanje. V tem mesecu se je z njimi spopadalo 27 % zaposlenih (oziroma 25 % podjetij), kar je za 3 odstotne točke več kot lani v tem mesecu in 1 odstotno točko nad povprečjem lanskega leta. Among factors limiting production, demand difficulties prevailed. In April 2005, 27% of employees (25% of enterprises) faced these limits, which is 3 percentage points more than in April 2005 and 1 percentage point above last year’s average. Sledili so omejitveni dejavniki iz skupine težave s preskrbo. V tem mesecu se je z njimi srečevalo 25 % zaposlenih (oziroma 31 % podjetij), kar je enako kot isti mesec lani in 3 odstotne točke manj kot lansko povprečje. The second most important limits were supply difficulties. In April 2005, 25% of employees (31% of enterprises) faced these limits, which is the same as in April 2004 and 3 percentage points below last year’s average. Z dejavniki iz skupine hude omejitve se je v tem mesecu srečalo 24 % zaposlenih (oziroma 25 % podjetij) v predelovalnih dejavnostih. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil odstotek nižji za 8 odstotnih točk in za 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. The third most important limits were severe obstacles. In April 2005, 24% of employees (25% of enterprises) faced these limits, which is 8 percentage points less than in April 2004 and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. 24 % zaposlenih (oziroma 19 % podjetij) v tem mesecu ni imelo omejitev v proizvodnji. Glede na isti mesec lani in lansko povprečje je bil odstotek višji za 5 odstotnih točk. In April 2005, 24% of employees (19% of enterprises) faced no limits, which is 5 percentage points more than in April 2004 and last year’s average. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v proizvodnji pokaže, da je/so aprila 20051: A more detailed overview of limits to production shows that in April 20051: • 33 % zaposlenih (ali 30% podjetij) omejevalo nezadostno tuje povpraševanje; • 30 % zaposlenih (ali 33% podjetij) omejevalo nezadostno domače povpraševanje; • 24 % zaposlenih (ali 19% podjetij) ) ni imelo proizvodnih omejitev; • 22 % zaposlenih (ali 21% podjetij) omejeval konkurenčni uvoz; • 18 % zaposlenih (ali 20% podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev; • 14 % zaposlenih (ali 30% podjetij) imelo težave zaradi negotovih gospodarskih razmer; • 13 % zaposlenih (ali 22% podjetij) omejevale neporavnane obveznosti iz poslovanja; • 9 % zaposlenih (ali 30% podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme; 1 Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo proizvodnjo, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. • 33% of employees (or 30% of enterprises) were limited by insufficient foreign demand, • 30% of employees (or 33% of enterprises) were limited by insufficient domestic demand, • 24% of employees (or 19% of enterprises) experienced no limits, • 22% of employees (or 21% of enterprises) were limited by competitive imports, • 18% of employees (or 20% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of skilled labour, • 14% of employees (or 30% of enterprises) were limited by uncertain economic conditions, • 13% of employees (or 22% of enterprises) were limited by problems with unpaid bills, • 9% of employees (or 30% of enterprises) were limited by lack of appropriate equipment, 1 Enterprises can select several factors limiting their business, so the total in not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 128/2005 10 Rapid Reports No 128/2005 Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Jelena Čirjakovič • 9 % zaposlenih (ali 9% podjetij) omejevali drugi dejavniki, npr. nelojalna konkurenca, tečajna politika, pomanjkanje zmogljivosti, visoki stroški dela; • 8 % zaposlenih (ali 10% podjetij) omejevali finančni problemi, kot so neugodni pogoji kreditiranja, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov itd; • 6 % zaposlenih (ali 6% podjetij) omejevala nejasna gospodarska zakonodaja; • 6 % zaposlenih (ali 5% podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje surovin; • 3 % zaposlenih (ali 4% podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno; • 1 % zaposlenih (ali 1% podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje polizdelkov. • 9% of employees (or 9% of enterprises) were limited by other factors such as unfair competition, exchange-rate policy, lack of capacity, high labour costs, • 8% of employees (or 10% of enterprises) were limited by financial problems such as unfavourable credit terms, difficulties in obtaining credits, etc., • 6% of employees (or 6% of enterprises) were limited by unclear economic legislation, • 6% of employees (or 5% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of raw materials, • 3% of employees (or 4% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of labour in general, • 1% of employees (or 1% of enterprises) was limited by shortage of semi-finished products. Največja omejitev v proizvodnji je nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, sledijo nezadostno domače povpraševanje, konkurenčni uvoz in pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev. Med omejitvenimi dejavniki v tem mesecu najbolj izstopajo nezadostno tuje povpraševanje in pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme. The most important factor limiting production is insufficient foreign demand, followed by insufficient domestic demand, competitive imports and lack of appropriate equipment. Limits to production that changed the most in January 2005 are insufficient foreign demand and lack of appropriate equipment. IZKORIŠČENOST ZMOGLJIVOSTI CAPACITY UTILISATION Aprilska povprečna izkoriščenost zmogljivosti je bila 82,4-odstotna ali za 0,4 odstotne točke višja kot januarja 2005. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila za 0,9 odstotne točke višja in 0,4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. In April 2005 the average capacity utilisation was 82.4%, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than in January 2005. Compared to April 2004 it was up by 0.9 percentage point and 0.4 percentage point below last year’s average. USTREZNOST PROIZVODNIH ZMOGLJIVOSTI CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY Ocena ustreznosti proizvodnih zmogljivosti glede na pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih dvanajstih mesecih je bila nižja kot v zadnjem opazovanem mesecu. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 2 odstotni točki in enaka kot povprečje lanskega leta. The assessment of current production capacity in comparison with expected demand in the next 12 months was lower than in January 2005. Compared to April 2004 it was up by 2 percentage points and the same as last year’s average. KONKURENČNI POLOŽAJ COMPETITIVE POSITION Desezonirana ocena konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na domačem trgu se je v primerjavi z januarjem 2005 zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 1 odstotno točko in enaka kot lansko povprečje. Compared to January 2005, the seasonally adjusted assessment of competitive position on the domestic market was up by 1 percentage point. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 1 percentage point and the same as last year’s average. Desezonirana ocena konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na trgih držav članic EU je bila v primerjavi z januarjem 2005 višja za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani in lansko povprečje je bila nižja za 3 odstotne točke. Compared to January 2005 the seasonally adjusted assessment of enterprise’s competitive position on markets of the EU Member States was up by 4 percentage points. It was down by 3 percentage points compared to April 2004 and last year’s average. Desezonirana ocena konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na trgih zunaj EU je bila v primerjavi z januarjem 2005 višja za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 3 odstotne točke in za 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. Compared to January 2005 the seasonally adjusted assessment of enterprise’s competitive position on the markets outside EU was up by 4 percentage points. Compared to April 2004 it was down by 3 percentage points and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 690 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 690 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. i r – Področna ur dnica Darja Regoršek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško b sedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 105 izvodov - IS N zbirk Statističn informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo i pr delovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Info macijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. – ubject-matter editor Darja Regoršek - Slovene Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 105 copies - ISSN of apid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining