29. JULIJ 2004 29 JULY 2004 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 25 št./No 226 Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 2 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 4 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. We have been carrying out the Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: • 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, • 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels • 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. • 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: They were selected into the panel by two criteria: • razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD in • the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) and • velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). • the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja ter 26 % malih podjetij (ali 37 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 36 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 93 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovine z motornimi vozili. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 26% of small enterprises (or 37% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 36% of enterprises of the studied population or 93% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SKD classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 6 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 Na grafih so prikazane desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2004. Pri prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah in ravni prodaje sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2004. Selling prices, selling prices expectation and the level of sales have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju in sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business trend and present stock (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Persons participating in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah in podatkovni bazi SI-STAT (http://www.stat.si). Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports and in the SI- STAT database (http://www.stat.si/eng). VPRAŠANJA : QUESTIONS: Ocene stanj: Appreciation of situation: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Assessment of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higer level, unchanged, at a lower level? Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: Expectation in the next months: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling price expectations for the next months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 meseci: večji, enak, manjši? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT V juliju 2004 so se tendence v trgovini na drobno v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem poslabšale za 2 odstotni točki. Tudi v primerjavi z lanskim julijem je bila vrednost kazalca zaupanja nižja, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko. V primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa se je vrednost tega kazalca izboljšala, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko. In July 2004 business tendencies in retail trade went down by 2 percentage points compared to June 2004. The confidence indicator was 1 percentage point lower than in July 2003 but 1 percentage point higher than last year's average. Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja sta vplivali predvsem ocena sedanjega in ocena pričakovanega poslovnega položaja. The evolution of confidence indicator was mostly influenced by the present and expected business situation. Kazalci stanj so se večinoma izboljšali; izjema sta bila kazalca poslovni položaj in prodajne cene. Ravno tako so se večinoma izboljšali tudi kazalci pričakovanj, izjema je bil le kazalec pričakovane prodajne cene. Indicators of the present situation mainly improved, except the indicators of the present business situation and selling prices. Indicators of the expected business situation also improved, except the indicator of expected selling prices. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega poslovnega položaja v letošnjem juliju je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem za 1 odstotno točko višja. Glede na vrednost v lanskem juliju je bila za 2 odstotni točki višja, hkrati pa enaka lanskemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected business situation indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 2 percentage points, while compared to last year’s average it remained the same. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanih prodajnih cen je bila za 6 odstotnih točk nižja kot v preteklem mesecu. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila njegova vrednost za 39 odstotnih točk nižja, za 35 odstotnih točk pa je zaostala za lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices expectations indicator fell by 6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was down by 39 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 35 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega zaposlovanja je bila enaka kot prejšnji mesec. Hkrati je bila za 10 odstotnih točk višja kot v istem mesecu lani in prav tako za 10 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected employment indicator remained the same as in the previous month. Compared to July 2003 and to last year’s average it was up by 10 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovane skupne nabave je bila za 1 odstotno točko višja kot v preteklem mesecu in hkrati za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot v istem mesecu lani. Lansko povprečje pa je presegla za 1 odstotno točko. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected orders indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was down by 1 percentage point while compared to last year’s average it was up by 1 percentage point. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega povpraševanja je bila za 3 odstotne točke višja kot v preteklem mesecu, za 7 odstotnih točk višja kot v istem mesecu lanskega leta in za 3 odstotne točke višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected demand indicator rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 7 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 3 percentage points. STANJA SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION V letošnjem juliju je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca poslovnega položaja za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot v letošnjem juniju. Hkrati pa je bila vrednost kazalca za 3 odstotne točke višja kot v istem mesecu lanskega leta in za 6 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the business situation indicator fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 8 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca prodajnih cen je bila nižja v vseh treh primerjavah: v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem za 19 odstotnih točk, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta za 1 odstotno točko in glede na lansko povprečje za 10 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices indicator fell by 19 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was down by 1 percentage point and compared to last year’s average by 10 percentage points. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca finančnega položaja se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem ni spremenila. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta je bila za 2 odstotni točki višja in za 3 odstotne točke višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the financial situation indicator did not change compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 2 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 3 percentage points. OBSEG ZALOG PRESENT STOCKS V primerjavi z junijem letos je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca obsega zalog julija za 6 odstotnih točk višja. Za 8 odstotnih točk je bila višja kot v istem mesecu lanskega leta in za 5 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the present stocks indicator rose by 6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni prodaje je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 8 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je bila višja za 18 odstotnih točk in glede na lansko povprečje višja za 25 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the level of sales indicator rose by 8 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 18 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 25 percentage points. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca konkurenčnosti je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem za 1 odstotno točko višja. Hkrati je bila vrednost kazalca za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot v istem mesecu lanskega leta in enaka lanskemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of the competition indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was down by 1 percentage point and the same as last year’s average. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR Desezonirana vrednost kazalca gibanja prodaje je bila višja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem za 7 odstotnih točk, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta za 5 odstotnih točk in za 2 odstotni točki od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the evolution of sales indicator rose by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2003 it was up by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 2 percentage points. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE V trgovini na drobno se je 33 % podjetij (oz. 24 % prihodka) srečevalo z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem je bil ta delež za 2 odstotni točki višji, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta pa je za 5 odstotnih točk nižji. In July 2004, 33% of enterprises (24% of turnover) in retail trade were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month the share was up by 2 percentage points while compared to July 2003 it was down by 5 percentage points. Podjetij, ki se srečujejo s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je bilo 29 % (oz. 26 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je bil glede na pretekli mesec enak, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta pa za 1 odstotno točko nižji. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 29% (26% of turnover), which is the same as in the previous month and 1 percentage point less than in July 2003. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je bilo 29 % (oz. 34 % prihodka) oz. prav toliko kot v preteklem mesecu in za 7 odstotnih točk več kot v lanskem juliju. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 29% (34% of turnover), which is the same as in the previous month and 7 percentage points more than in July 2003. Podjetij, ki v poslovanju niso imela omejitev, je bilo 9 % (oz. 16 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je bil glede na pretekli mesec za 2 odstotni točki nižji, glede na lanski julij pa za 1 odstotno točko nižji. Only 9% of enterprises (16% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. Compared to the previous month the share was down by 2 percentage points and compared to July 2003 by 1 percentage point. Podrobnejši pregled omejevalnih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade shows that1): • 46 % podjetij (ali 47 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju; • 46% of enterprises (or 47% of turnover) were limited by competition Statistične informacije, št. 226/2004 Rapid Reports No 226/2004 9 in own sector, • 39 % podjetij (ali 34 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela; • 39% of enterprises (or 34% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, • 34 % podjetij (ali 26 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje; • 34% of enterprises (or 26% of turnover) were limited by demand difficulties, • 24 % podjetij (ali 27 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja; • 24% of enterprises (or 27% of turnover) were limited by high cost of finance, • 13 % podjetij (ali 8 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina; • 13% of enterprises (or 8% of turnover) were limited by small sales surface, • 11 % podjetij (ali 7 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih kreditov; • 11% of enterprises (or 7% of turnover) were limited by access to bank credits, • 9 % podjetij (ali 16 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju; • 9% of enterprises (or 16% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, • 8 % podjetij (ali 6 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd.; • 8% of enterprises (or 6% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., • 7 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori; • 7% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, • 3 % podjetij (ali 1 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. • 3% of enterprises (or 1% of turnover) were limited by bad supply. 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacled to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavili / Prepared by: Barbara Čertanec, Darja Regoršek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 103 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408-9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 103 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408-9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.