26. FEBRUAR 2004 26. FEBRUARY 2004 Št. / No 65 19 GRADBENIŠTVO CONSTRUCTION Št. / No 5 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V GRADBENIŠTVU, SLOVENIJA, MAREC 2002 - FEBRUAR 2004 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN CONSTRUCTION, SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - FEBRUARY 2004 Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. The Business Tendency Survey in Construction has been carried out since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Business Tendency Survey in Construction (PA-GRAD/M) is to collect monthly information on the current situation of major economic indicators and to evaluate their development in the following months. Survey results are the basis for calculating the construction confidence indicator. Februarja so direktorji tendence v gradbeništvu ocenili enako kot pretekli mesec. Kazalec zaupanja je bil v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani za 14 odstotnih točk višji, hkrati pa za 3 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. In February, managers estimated business tendencies in construction the same as in the previous month. The confidence indicator increased by 14 percentage points compared to February 2003 and by 3 percentage points compared to last year’s average. 1. KAZALEC ZAUPANJA V GRADBENIŠTVU 1) CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR 1) -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F Slov enija / Slov enia pov prečje / av erage © SURS 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 2 Rapid reports No 65/2004 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - FEBRUAR 2004 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - FEBRUARY 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,6 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  originalni podatki raw data - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 3 3.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stavbe, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, buildings, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  stavbe buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 4 Rapid reports No 65/2004 3.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stanovanjske stavbe, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, residential buildings, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -10 10 30 50 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  stanovanjske stavbe residential buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 5 3.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, gradbeni inženirski objekti, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, civil engineering, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  gradbeni inženirski objekti civil engineering  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 6 Rapid reports No 65/2004 4.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo gradnja objektov in delov objektov, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in construction works, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  gradnja objektov in delov objektov construction works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 7 4.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo inštalacije pri gradnjah, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in installing equipment and fixtures, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  inštalacije pri gradnjah installation of equipment and fixtures  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 8 Rapid reports No 65/2004 4.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo zaključna gradbena dela, februar 2003 - februar 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in finishing works, February 2003 - February 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 F M A M J 2003 J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS  zaključna gradbena dela finishing works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 9 5. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V EU, MAREC 2002 - FEBRUAR 20041) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN THE EU, MARCH 2002 - FEBRUARY 20041) Kazalec zaupanja2 / Confidence indicator2 -25 -20 -15 -10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -15 -10 -5 0 5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo3 / Assured w ork in hand3 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F mesec/month © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -15 -10 -5 0 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 -5 0 5 10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F % © SURS 1) Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec nam niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for the EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje ravnotežij na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of balances to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. 3) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 10 Rapid reports No 65/2004 6. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - FEBRUAR 2004 FACTORS LIMITING BUILDING ACTIVITY IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - FEBRUARY 2004 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F ni omejitev / no limits težav e s pov prašev anjem / w eakness in demand težav e s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitv e / sev ere obstacles © SURS Graf ponazarja delež zaposlenih v gradbeništvu, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami težav: - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki nimajo omejitev. - Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave z nezadostnim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v dejavnosti. - Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave s slabimi vremenskimi pogoji, visokimi finančnimi stroški, visokimi stroški materiala in dela, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov. V to skupnino sodijo tudi podjetja, ki imajo težave s pomanjkanjem usposobljenih delavcev, opreme in materialov. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave tako z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: - Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits in building activity. - Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient demand and competition in own sector. - Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing bad weather conditions, high cost of finance, materials and/or labour; difficulties with access to bank credits, lack of equipment, and shortage of skilled labour and shortage of materials. - Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 11 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency in Construction (hereinafter: PA-GRAD/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the construction confidence indicator. Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo v Sloveniji od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Construction in Slovenia since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTE OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v gradbeništvo, to je v oddelek Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) 45 in imajo 5 zaposlenih ali več, ter so bila izbrana v panel podjetij na podlagi dveh meril: We are monitoring units that are registered in construction – division 45 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) and have 5 or more employees. They were selected by two criteria: − in sicer velikosti (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) − classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V anketi sodeluje približno 330 izbranih gradbenih podjetij. V anketo smo zajeli vsa velika podjetja, 98 % srednjevelikih (ali 98 % zaposlenih) in 82 % malih podjetij (ali 93 % zaposlenih). Anketa pokriva 87 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 98 % zaposlenih v gradbeništvu. Approximately 330 enterprises participate in the survey. We included all large enterprises, 98% of medium enterprises (or 98% of employees) and 82% of small enterprises (or 93% of employees); the survey covers 87% of the enterprises of the studied population or 98% of employees in construction. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giba med 5-10 % (povprečno 8 %). Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 5 and 10% (8% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 12 Rapid reports No 65/2004 gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanemu zaposlovanju. Confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on order book assessments and employment expectations. OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o gradbeništvu kot celoti, o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in glede na vrsto gradnje, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Persons participating in the survey get information for construction, division in which they are classified and for the type of construction. They get it only if they responded in the current month. Ostalim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni gradbeništva in njegovih skupin in informacije glede na vrsto gradnje. Slednji so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah. Other users can get data for construction and its groups, size of enterprises and type of construction. Data are published in the Rapid Reports. VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: • Obseg gradbenih del v zadnjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Building activity over the past 3 months: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Dejavniki, ki omejujejo gradbeno dejavnost: ni omejitev, nezadostno povpraševanje, slabi vremenski pogoji, visoki stroški materiala, visoki stroški dela, visoki finančni stroški, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje opreme, pomanjkanje materialov, velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, ostalo? • Factors limiting building activity: none, insufficient demand, bad weather conditions, high cost of material, high cost of labour, high cost of capital, access to bank credit, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of equipment, shortage of material, competition in own sector, other? • Sedanja naročila v tujini: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of foreign order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja domača naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of domestic order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja skupna naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of overall order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Pričakovana naročila v naslednjih 3 mesecih: zrasla, ostala nespremenjena, padla? • Expected order books over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Zaposlovanje v zadnjem mesecu: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Assessment of employment: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Cene so se: zvišale, ostale enake, znižale? • Assessment of prices: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, ostale enake, padale? • Expected prices over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Tehnične zmogljivosti glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih: več kot zadostne, zadostne, nezadostne? • Technical capacity regarding expected demand in the next 12 months: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? • V primeru normalnih delovnih ur že začeto ali s pogodbami zagotovljeno dela za: .... mesecev? • With normal working hours, the work in hand and work already contracted for …. months? • Poslovno stanje v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljše, enako, slabše? • Business situation compared to the previous month: better, the same, worse? Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 Rapid reports No 65/2004 13 KOMENTAR COMMENT Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. The Business Tendency Survey in Construction has been carried out since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Business Tendency Survey in Construction (PA-GRAD/M) is to collect monthly information on the current situation of major economic indicators and to evaluate their development in the following months. Survey results are the basis for calculating the construction confidence indicator. Februarja so direktorji tendence v gradbeništvu ocenili enako kot pretekli mesec. Kazalec zaupanja je bil v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani za 14 odstotnih točk višji, hkrati pa za 3 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. In February, managers estimated business tendencies in construction the same as in the previous month. The confidence indicator increased by 14 percentage points compared to February 2003 and by 3 percentage points compared to last year’s average. POSLOVNO STANJE BUSINESS SITUATION Ocena poslovnega stanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 8 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 23 odstotnih točk in 15 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The evaluation of the business situation fell by 8 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 23 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 15 percentage points. OBSEG GRADBENIH DEL BUILDING ACTIVITY Ocena obsega gradbenih del se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala kar za 21 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 35 odstotnih točk in 14 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the building activity dropped by 21 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 35 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 14 percentage points. SKUPNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NAROČILA OVERALL ORDERS and EXPECTED ORDERS Vrednost kazalca skupnih naročil se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 6 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 14 odstotnih točk in za 9 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The value of the overall orders indicator fell by 6 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 14 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 9 percentage points. Vrednost kazalca pričakovanih skupnih naročil za naslednje 3 mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 20 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 3 odstotne točke in 24 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The value of the expected orders for the next three months jumped by 20 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 24 percentage points. ZAPOSLOVANJE in PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EMPLOYMENT and EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Ocena zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 1 odstotno točko. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 10 odstotnih točk in 3 odstotne točke pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the employment indicator fell by 1 percentage point compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 10 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 3 percentage points. Ocena pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 7 točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 14 točk in 15 točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of expected employment rose by 7 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 14 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 15 percentage points. CENE in CENOVNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRICES and PRICE EXPECTATIONS Vrednost kazalca cen se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 17 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 15 odstotnih točk in 17 odstotnih točk nad The value of the prices indicator rose by 17 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 15 percentage points and compared to last year’s Statistične informacije, št. 65/2004 14 Rapid reports No 65/2004 lanskim povprečjem. average by 17 percentage points. Cenovna pričakovanja za naslednje 3 mesece so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani so bila višja za 3 odstotne točke in 7 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta. Price expectations for the next three months rose by 3 percentage points compared to January 2004. Compared to February 2003 they were up by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 7 percentage points. TEHNIČNE ZMOGLJIVOSTI TECHNICAL CAPACITY Vrednost kazalca tehničnih zmogljivosti vključuje oceno količine in kakovosti opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. Kazalec se je v primerjavi s preteklim mescem zvišal za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil nižji za 3 odstotne točke in 1 odstotno točko pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of the technical capacity indicator includes the evaluation of the quantity and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. Compared to January 2004 the indicator rose by 4 percentage points. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 1 percentage point. ZAGOTOVLJENO DELO ASSURED WORK Vrednost kazalca zagotovljenega dela vključuje oceno števila mesecev, za katere je delo že začeto ali zagotovljeno s pogodbami. V februarju je že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 4,5 meseca. Glede na isti mesec lani je bilo daljše za 0,8 meseca in 0,4 meseca nad lanskim povprečjem. The value of the assured work indicator includes the evaluation of the number of months for which work is assured by contracts. In February the work in hand and work already contracted is assured for 4.5 months on average. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 0.8 month and compared to last year’s average by 0.4 month. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 395 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Gradbeništvo 1408-9300 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel. (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta:info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 395 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Construction 1408-9300 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.