Slovenian economic mirror ........•2O09;No. • • ?Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3818 št. 12 / letnik XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Matevž Hribernik (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Maja Kersnik, MSc (Social protection expenditure, Risk of poverty and material deprovation of the population) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc *The opinions expressed in the text are personal to the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the institution where she is employed. Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Amidas d.o.o. Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Javor Čeh Print: Tiskarna Present d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices............................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of Payments.............................................................................................................................................................................21 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................22 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................25 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................27 Izdatki za socialno zaščito - 2007 ..................................................................................................................................................29 Tveganje revščine in materialna prikrajšanost prebivalstva...................................................................................30 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................33 Boxes Box 1: Economic activity decline in 2008 and its impact on y-o-y indices in 2009................................................9 Box 2: Administered prices.............................................................................................................................................17 Box 3: Comparable price levels......................................................................................................................................18 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd_nace_2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight Short-term indicators of economic activity confirm the expectations that the recovery of the European economy will be slow. The volume of industrial production in the euro area shrank in October, after growing for several months, and the value of construction put in place continued to decline. Sentiment indicators of various institutions are, on the other hand, still improving; some of them are already reaching pre-crisis levels, though the assessment of the current situation remains low according to most indicators. As a result of the crisis, public finances deteriorated markedly in most EU countries in 2009 and negative movements are also expected to persist in 2010. According to the EC, the general government deficit is forecast to increase by 5.2 p.p. on average in the EU in 20082010, to 7.5% of GDP, and general government debt by nearly 20 p.p. to 80% of GDP. Slovenia saw economic activity indicators improve slightly again in most sectors in October. With the situation in main trading partners improving, merchandise exports increased again in October (1.0%, seasonally adjusted), whereas the volume of industrial production in manufacturing contracted by 3.6% in October, seasonally adjusted, after having increased in the third quarter. The value of construction put in place, in contrast, increased in October (3.7%), after falling considerably for six months. While stagnating in the third quarter, total real turnover in retail trade increased in October, seasonally adjusted. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade remained similar to previous months, and real turnover in hotels and restaurants continued to decline. The sentiment indicator remained unchanged in December. The situation on the labour market continues to deteriorate, given that the number of employed persons declined further in October and the number of registered unemployed persons kept increasing in November and December. In October, the number of persons in employment declined by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), being 4.4% lower y-o-y. It continues to shrink the most in manufacturing, where employment declined steeply in October largely due to the bankruptcy of Mura. The number of registered unemployed persons climbed to 96,672 by the end of December, which is 37,369 more than in September 2008, when this number was lowest. The average wage per employee increased in October, but its y-o-y growth continues to slow. In October, the average wage increased by a nominal 1.0%. In the first ten months of2009 as a whole, its y-o-y growth totalled 3.8% and was much faster in the public than in the private sector. October's increase of the average wage in the private sector is a result of high growth in only a few sectors (electricity, gas and water supply, and financial and insurance activities). Consumer prices grew by 1.8% in 2009, posting what was one of the highest rises in the euro area, which was mainly due to economic policy measures. In 2009, consumer price movements were largely affected by prices of oil, weak economic activity and higher services prices as a result of fiscal economic policy measures. Excise duty rises contributed as much as 1.0 p.p. to 1.8% inflation. The year 2009 saw higher-than-planned rises in prices under various regimes of regulation, which we estimate is, to a certain extent, due to changes in setting the prices of municipal services. Late in the year, the government adopted a new Plan of Adjusting Administered Prices anticipating 0.2% growth in 2010 and 2011 (without energy prices). In the third quarter of the year, Slovenia once again saw worse cost competitiveness of the economy y-o-y than other euro area countries and the EU, but narrowed this gap for the second quarter in a row. Labour unit costs growth slowed under the influence of slower growth in the compensation of employees per employee, which largely reflected lower wage rises in the public sector, as well as a smaller decline in labour productivity, which was in great part due to lower employment. Among the 21 EU countries for which data are presently available, Slovenia posted the third highest deterioration of cost competitiveness, though the gap was less pronounced in the last two quarters than in the first. The current account was more or less balanced also in October. Y-o-y, the merchandise trade balance and the balance of factor incomes improved further in October, while the surplus in the services balance continued to narrow. Gross capital flows were otherwise modest in October (EUR 83 m); the net inflow was due to net capital inflows of the BS and the government sector that were higher than the net outflows of the private sector. Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 4 In the Spotlight In November, the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined, while enterprises and NFI recorded the highest net repayment of loans to date (EUR 89.4 m) and stronger borrowing abroad. In November, enterprises and NFI net repaid loans to domestic banks for the third month in a row and household borrowing dropped relative to previous months. The growth of loans is thus still slowing y-o-y (2.9%), albeit more moderately than in previous months due to the base effect. Despite the tighter situation on foreign financial markets, domestic corporate and NFI borrowing abroad strengthened somewhat in October, by our estimate largely due to the wide gap between interest rates, as Slovenia has the highest interest rates in the euro area. The deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances totalled EUR 1,323 m in the first nine months of 2009. Consolidated general government revenue dropped by 7.6% y-o-y in this period, while expenditure increased by 8.3%, though its growth has started to slow in recent months. In terms of the economic structure of expenditures, the highest rises in this period were recorded for wages and other personnel expenditures, and expenditure on transfers to the unemployed. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Current Economic Trends 6 7 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends International Environment Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area confirm the expectations of international institutions that the recovery will be slow. Following five consecutive months of slight growth, the volume of industrial production in the euro area stopped rising in October, as did the production volume in manufacturing. The value of construction put in place continues to decline. In October, it dropped y-o-y for the twentieth month in a row. On the other hand, sentiment indicators in the EU and euro area (ZEW and Ifo indices) are improving again, particularly owing to higher indicators of expectations, while the current situation estimates remain low. The conditions on the labour market are deteriorating further, which is as expected. In the euro area, 144.8 million persons were employed in the third quarter (EU: 221.6 million), 2.1 % less than in the same quarter of 2008. The unemployment rate is also rising as forecast, climbing to 10.0% in November, up 2.0 p.p. from the same month of the previous year. In the US, the quarterly estimate of annualised third-quarter GDP growth was revised downwards once again to 2.2%, down 1.3 p.p. from the first estimate. Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area -Industrial production -Construction -----Retail trade -----Economic sentiment indicator in EMU (rihght axis) 115 110 110 100 (u D 90 rö o ro 80 .y JZ 70 60 Source: Eurostat,European Commission. The international economic and financial crisis seriously affected the public finance position in most EU Member States. For failing to comply with the Maastricht criteria in terms of the general government deficit, twenty EU members came under excessive deficit procedures in 2009 (nine in December 2009). According to the European Commission, the situation is not yet expected to improve in 2010, as the general government deficit will rise to 7.5% of GDP in the EU as a whole (5.2 p.p. more than in 2008). The situation deteriorated most notably in the EU countries that had already faced public finance difficulties before the crisis (Greece, United Kingdom) and in those most seriously affected by the crisis (Spain, Ireland and the Baltic countries). The deterioration of the public finance position in 2009 and 2010 is mainly attributable to fiscal incentives in the form of anti-crisis measures estimated at 2.7% of GDP on average in the EU in both these years. An additional pressure on public finances comes from the operation of automatic stabilisers, particularly lower tax revenues and higher expenditure on social protection. In 2010, general government debt will thus increase on average to almost 80% of GDP in the EU, which is nearly 20 p.p. more than in 2008, exceeding 60% of GDP in eleven countries. The EC and OECD stress the need for deeper structural reforms in public finances in European countries, as fiscal expansion in a crisis context, coupled with low economic growth and ageing population, increasingly jeopardise the long-term sustainability of public finances in the EU. Similar to the EU, fiscal-stimulus packages also significantly deteriorated public finances in the US, with the budgetary deficit projected to exceed 11% of GDP in 2009 and debt coming close to 80% of GDP. Table 1: General government deficit (in % of GDP) 2008 2009 2010 EL -7.7 -12.7 -12.2 IE -7.2 -12.5 -14.7 UK -5.0 -12.1 -12.9 FR -3.4 -8.3 -8.2 EU -2.3 -6.9 -7.5 EMU -2.0 -6.4 -6.9 DE 0.0 -3.4 -5.0 DK 3.4 -2.0 -4.8 BG 1.8 -0.8 -1.2 Source: European Commission. Note: The table is sorted according to data for 2009, which are an estimate by the EC; data for 2010 are a EC forecast . Table 2: General government gross debt (in% of GDP) 2008 2009 2010 IT 105.8 114.6 116.7 EL 99.2 112.6 124.9 EMU 69.3 78.2 84.0 FR 67.4 76.1 82.5 DE 65.9 73.1 76.7 EU 61.5 73.0 79.3 UK 52.0 68.6 80.3 LU 13.5 15.0 16.4 EE 4.6 7.4 10.9 Source: European Commission. Note: The table is sorted according to data for 2009, which are an estimate by the EC; data for 2010 are a EC forecast . The interest rates of the main central banks remained at record lows also in December (ECB: 1.0%, FED: 0.0%, BoE: 0.5%) and the ECB conducted its third auction of unlimited funds to increase financial system liquidity. In December, the ECB conducted its third auction of unlimited funds, increasing the Eurosystem's liquidity by EUR 96.9 bn (the first and second auctions combined totalled EUR 517 bn). This was the last auction of one-year loans to banks (another 95 90 85 50 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Current Economic Trends auction is to follow in March 2010, with a maturity of six months), while the interest rate is fixed at the level of the actual main refinancing interest rate during this operation. The latter suggests that the monetary stimulus will be gradually withdrawn by the ECB. In December, the value of the three-month EURIBOR remained at approximately the same level as in the previous three months, averaging 0.71%. The euro depreciated against main currencies in December. The dollar strengthened by 2.0% against the euro in December (reaching USD 1.4614 to EUR 1). The values of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc also appreciated against the euro in December (by 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively), while the value of the British pound sterling remained at approximately the same level as a month Figure 2 1,60 1,55 1,50 1,45 135 Movement of the USD/EUR exchange rate 130 1,20 -2009 -2008 0 07 1 1 à before. The value of the US dollar averaged USD 1.3947 to EUR 1 in 2009, 5.2% less than a year earlier. In 2009, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was roughly one third lower than in 2008. In December, the average price of Brent crude oil in euros declined by 0.9% to EUR 50.95 a barrel, while oil prices expressed in US dollars declined by 2.9% to USD 74.46 a barrel. The average annual price of Brent crude declined by 32.5% to EUR 43.78 a barrel in 2009 (in USD: by 36.3% to USD 61.74 a barrel). Economic activity in Slovenia The slight improvement in most economic activity indicators, which had already been posted in the third quarter, continued in October for most sectors. According to seasonally adjusted figures,1 merchandise exports also grew in October, even if at a lower rate than in the third quarter as a whole. After increasing in the third quarter, the volume of production in manufacturing declined in October (seasonally adjusted), but the seasonally adjusted value of construction put in place increased slightly after dropping considerably in the previous three months. After stagnating in the third quarter, total real turnover in retail trade increased in October, while nominal turnover in wholesale trade remained at a similar level as in previous months, while real turnover in hotels and restaurants continued to decline, albeit at a slightly lower rate. The sentiment indicator remained unchanged in December relative to November, being higher than a year before for the second time in a row. With modest monthly growth rates, certain indicator values are already posting visibly lower y-o-y declines due to the Figure 4: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Figure 3: Movements of the price of a barrel of Brent crude 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 2009 2008 2007 110 105 90 85 80 75 70 65 — Merchandise exports (nom.) — Industrial production in manufact. — Value of construction put in place Turnover in trade — Turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in wholesale •• Sentiment indicator (right axis) / \ \ f , \\ \ / 1 'vT--^ i l 12 8 "o o 4 ta D T3 0 ro -4 CO c O CO -8 O -12 O D CO -16 > O -20 CO u T3 -24 C -28 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. E1,40 1,25 Source: ECB 150 100 95 Source: EIA 9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box I. Economic activity decline in 2008 and its impact on y-o-y indices in 2009 Having dropped significantly at the end of2008 and the beginning of 2009, most economic activity indicators declined at a slower pace in 2009. Monthly drops of the main indicators started to decrease and y-o-y rates stabilised at approximately 20% lower rates than a year before. An example of this development is presented in Figures 5 and 6, showing Slovenian export movements since 2008. The left axis shows the index of monthly changes in a time series and the right the y-o-y decline of exports in October last year (October 2009 compared with October 2008; both months are marked in the figure). In the second half of the year, exports were otherwise increasing from month to month, but were still approximately 20% lower y-o-y in October. According to the most recent available data, this movement of exports also continued in November 2009. As shown in Figure 6, the monthly change of exports in November was comparable with what was recorded in previous months, but the y-o-y decline was significantly smaller, below 4%. This significant y-o-y decline is a result of the base effect, as the figure for November 2009 is compared with that for November 2008, when exports had already been significantly lower (see marks for both months in Figure 6). The lower value of the y-o-y change is in this case due to a decline of the analysed phenomena in the previous year and not to its increase in the current year. In the last months of 2009, similar developments were also recorded for other macroeconomic indicators used to monitor economic activity (imports, taxes, earnings, employment, etc.), which had deteriorated substantially with the onset of the financial crisis in the last months of 2008, but are now stabilising gradually. Figure 5: Base effect shown with the example of merchandise exports (January 2009) Figure 6: Base effect shown with the example of merchandise exports (November 2009) I Y-o-y (right axis) 150 145 o JÜ 140 O o tf 135 tu | 130 tu J 125 ■ö tu š120 TD ro |15 ro S 110 ro (U m 105 100 -A < O ^ < Source. SORS; calculations by IMAD. EX 0 -10 -15 o base effect. Certain indicator values posted significantly smaller y-o-y declines in October, which we estimate is mainly due to economic activity starting to decline more rapidly in October 2008, which was reflected in the level of y-o-y growth rates in October 2009 (base effect). The y-o-y drops in merchandise exports, real total turnover in retail trade and nominal turnover in wholesale trade thus eased in October, largely due to the base effect. However, y-o-y declines remained high in merchandise imports, the volume of industrial production in manufacturing, the value of construction put in place, and real turnover in hotels and restaurants, which had not yet started to diminish noticeably in October 2008. Merchandise exports2 increased again in October (seasonally adjusted). Due to the base effect, their y-o-y decline is slowing, which is expected. Merchandise exports increased slightly again in October (1.0%), according to seasonally adjusted data, while posting a smaller y-o-y decline (-18.0%) than in the third quarter as a whole (-20.9%). This is also attributable to the base effect (see Box 1), given that merchandise exports started to drop rapidly in October 2008. The base effect also affects y-o-y comparisons in the geographical composition of merchandise exports, according to which the smaller y-o-y decline in merchandise exports is due to a slower decline in exports to EU members, where GDP started to fall at a much 2 According to the external trade statistics.. 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 3: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2008 X 09/ IX 09 X 09/ X 08 I-X 09/ I-X 08 Exports1 4.8 -0.3 -17.9 -20.7 -goods 1.3 0.6 -18.4 -22.0 -services 21.6 -3.7 -16.1 -15.2 Imports1 6.4 2.1 -26.2 -26.8 -goods 5.7 1.1 -28.8 -29.3 -services 10.8 7.5 -7.6 -9.9 Industrial production 2.5 -3.22 -18.43 -20.13 -manufacturing 2.6 -3.62 -19.33 -21.43 Construction -value of construction put in place 15.7 3.72 -28.23 -22.13 Distributive trade - total turnover in retail trade 10.4 2.32 -13.43 -13.83 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -2.7 -1.32 14.23 -11.33 Sources: BS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics. Seasonally adjusted. 3working-day adjusted data. Figure 7: Merchandise exports by selected groups of countries ■ Countries of former Yugoslavia NMS4+RUS** EMU 4 * ÉisL "linn o o a a 0 o1 o1 a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: «German, Italy, Austria, France; ** Hungary, Czech,Poland, Slovakia,Russia. slower pace in the third quarter of 2009, while the decline in merchandise exports to non-EU countries is deepening further. According to the available data for the first nine months of 2009, Slovenia's exports to its main trading partners (EMU43) dropped less y-o-y than its exports to new EU Member States. The average y-o-y drop in exports to non-EU members has already deepened for the third quarter in a row. Looking at non-EU countries, exports to Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Russian Federation are dropping at an accelerated pace y-o-y, while the decline in export flows to Croatia, Macedonia and the US slowed at the y-o-y level in the third quarter of the year. Broken down by activities, the y-o-y decline in exports of highly and mainly export-oriented industries in manufacturing slowed in the third quarter of the year. The y-o-y decline in exports of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which was deepest in the first quarter of 2009, slowed in the second quarter and even somewhat more in the third. Specifically, the volume of Slovenian production and exports of road vehicles increased gradually under the influence of measures taken in certain European countries to stimulate car purchases. The manufacture of metals and electrical equipment was another highly export-oriented industry to reduce its contribution to the decline in exports in the third quarter, while exports in the manufacture of pharmaceutical raw materials and preparations recorded a somewhat stronger decline. Among the mainly export-oriented industries, the y-o-y decline in exports slowed most notably in the manufacture of leather and leather products, while in the manufacture of clothing, the decline in exports deepened. The increase in merchandise imports, which was interrupted in September, resumed in October.4 After dropping in September, merchandise imports increased by 0.2% in October, according to seasonally adjusted data, while their y-o-y decline (-28.6%) remained similar to that in the third quarter (-28.3%). Imports of transport equipment and machinery and equipment declined further y-o-y in the third quarter, for which data are available, reflecting a sizeable decline in private business investment, while imports of intermediate and consumer goods recorded a smaller decline. A smaller decline in intermediate goods imports was due to the stabilisation of production in the Slovenian manufacturing sector and lower prices of oil and other commodities. Among consumer goods, the decline in imports slowed most notably for durable goods; the decline in imports of semi-durable goods was also smaller, while imports of non-durables increased slightly for the second quarter in a row. The volume of production in manufacturing declined in October, after strengthening for two months, and posted a higher y-o-y drop than in the third quarter as a whole. Production activity was down by 3.6% from September (seasonally adjusted), but remained higher than in the first half of the year. It declined by 19.3% y-o-y (working-day adjusted). The greater y-o-y production decline in October compared with the third quarter of the year was mainly underpinned by the manufacture of metals and metal products, ICT and electrical appliances, and other machinery and equipment, but their contributions were smaller than in the third quarter. Along with the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, where the production decline deepened significantly y-o-y in October, these sectors contributed more than half to the y-o-y decline (around 12 p.p. or more than 60% of the decline). The volume of production in manufacturing was, according to data until October, higher in the second half of the year 3 Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU are Germany, Italy, Austria and France. In the first nine months of 2009, merchandise exports to these four countries accounted for 47.9% of Slovenia's total merchandise exports. 4 According to the external trade statistics. 10 5 0 -10 " -15 11 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 8: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 -Original data -Seasonally adjusted data Source. SORS; calculations by IMAD. than in the first six months as a whole; however, particularly owing to industries mainly oriented to the domestic market, it remained lower than at the end of2008, when production had started to shrink. In October, in most export-oriented medium- and high-technology industries (except in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry and the manufacture of other machinery and equipment), production activity exceeded the level posted in the last quarter of 2008. In the manufacture of transport equipment, which had seen the most notable drop at the end of 2008, production activity was higher than in the last quarter of 2008 for the entire year, which was to a great extent due to measures to stimulate new car purchases, particularly in some major European countries. In most low-technology industries (the textile and furniture industries and Figure 9: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing by sub-industries 150 140 130 120 o 2110 II §100 S 90 a 80 70 60 I Q1 2009 ■ Q2 2009 ■ Q3 2009 ■ Oct. 2009 n I 1 r 1 0 1 other miscellaneous manufacturing industries) and in the manufacture of other machinery and equipment that recorded the greatest production activity declines when the crisis spilled over into the Slovenian economy, production activity continued to lag most notably behind that recorded at the end of 2008 and also dropped the most y-o-y in October. Lower production volume than at the end of 2008 was also recorded by all industries that are mainly oriented to the domestic market, where production activity dropped around one tenth on average and did not improve y-o-y in the second half of the year. The indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing mainly remained at the level of the previous month, while the situation indicators improved. Most of them remain below long-term averages,5 but are higher than in the last months of 2008 and in the first months of 2009, when they posted significant declines. Notable are the indicators measuring the current situation of export and total orders, which are improving at the slowest pace and posted similar levels in December as at the end of 2008. The strongest increase was recorded for some indicators of expectations (expected production, expected imports and expected total demand), which have remained at similar levels since September. Figure 10: Selected indicators of business trends in manufacturing -----Overall order-books -----Export order-books -Expected export order-books -Expected total demand ♦— Production expectations 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 ..................1.................. V; ................ /v—' .................. \ - " \ jr," / V 8 8 I I 55 S S 55 I I $ S Source: SORS; calculations by IM AD. 8 8 $ S 7 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 13 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends in October 2008 (the number of new car registrations was almost a fifth lower in that period), which is also due to the fact that it had already declined in October 2008. In October, the greatest y-o-y decline (by more than a quarter) was, as in previous months, recorded in specialised stores selling automotive fuels. In October, y-o-y turnover growth was only generated in specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products, and in those selling textile, clothing and leather products. In the first ten months of 2009, total real turnover dropped by 14.0% y-o-y, of which in retail trade by slightly over one tenth and almost by a quarter in the sale and repair of motor vehicles. In October, nominal turnover in wholesale trade remained at approximately the same level as in September (seasonally adjusted). Y-o-y, its decline slowed, but remained substantial. The decline in nominal turnover in wholesale trade slowed y-o-y in October, but turnover was still nearly one quarter lower than in October 2008. In the first ten months of 2009 as a whole, nominal turnover was more than a fifth lower than in the same period of 2008. Real turnover in hotels and restaurants continued to drop (seasonally adjusted) in October and its y-o-y decline remained notable. As in previous months, the number of domestic tourist overnight stays also increased y-o-y in October (by nearly a tenth) and the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists declined (by almost 2%). In the first ten months as a whole, real turnover was more than 6% lower than in the same period of 2008, while the number of total overnight stays remained roughly unchanged. Figure 14: Tourist overnight stays and real turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in hotels and restaurants -Overnight stays -total -----Overnight stays -domestic Overnight stays -foreign Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Consumption and consumer optimism remain modest. The number of wage recipients in the private sector is falling, and consequently also the wage bill. In November, it was 4.8% lower in real terms y-o-y, in the private sector by as much as 7.4%. Turnover in retail trade dropped by 13.9% y-o-y in November, similar to the previous month. In November and December, new car registrations by natural persons increased more visibly (11.0% and 4.8%, y-o-y, respectively) for the first time since April 2008, but turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles remained lower y-o-y, posting what was otherwise the smallest drop in 2009 (-16.2 and 12.4%, respectively, according to preliminary data). Nor did the higher number of sold vehicles result in any major increase in consumer loans, as these were net repaid again in November (in the amount of EUR 6 m). The consumer confidence indicator declined somewhat in December, when consumers became much more pessimistic about expected employment after a visible confidence improvement in November. Figure 15: Household consumption indicators ^^^B Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) -- Consumer confidence indicator, original value (right axis) 30 SigSSgggg Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. Figure16: Business tendency 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Economic sentiment - Retail trade Service act. Manufacturing Consumers Construction * \ - \\V y' * - v j \ \ / V \ V. .........../r - S Si s I Si Si s $ ž I o g 8- s 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Current Economic Trends The value of the sentiment indicator remained unchanged in December, being 4 p.p. higher than in the same month a year before. The confidence indictors in manufacturing and retail trade improved in December, while dropping somewhat relative to November in the construction and services sectors. The consumer confidence indicator also declined. Labour market The number of persons in formal employment continued to decline in October. The number of employed and self-employed persons declined by 3,343 (-0.3%) compared with the previous month, but the seasonally adjusted monthly decline was even higher (-0.6%). The y-o-y decline increased as well (-4.4%). Broken down by activities, the number of employed persons again dropped most notably in manufacturing (by 3,404 or 1.7%, this time largely due to the bankruptcy of Mura), while it also declined in mining, construction, water supply, distributive trades, hotels and restaurants, financial services and public administration. It increased the most in professional, scientific and technical activities, and in education. The number of vacancies and the number of persons hired dropped seasonally in November, but the declines are becoming smaller y-o-y. The number of work permits for foreigners also continues to drop. Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Število v 1.000 Stopnje rasti, v % 2008 VIII 09 IX 09 X 09 2008/ 2007 X09/ XII 08 X09/ IX 09 X09/ X08 I-X09/ I-X08 Q1 09/ Q1 08 Q2 09/ Q2 08 Q3 09/ Q3 08 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 -1.8 -2.2 0.0 -2.6 -4.9 -7.3 -4.7 -3.4 B Mining 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 -5.2 -4.5 -0.7 -7.4 -7.2 -7.9 -7.1 -6.6 C Manufacturing 199.2 196.5 195.9 192.5 -0.5 -11.0 -1.7 -13.0 -9.7 -6.5 -10.1 -11.5 D Electricity, gas and steam supply 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 -1.1 3.2 0.3 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 E Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 4.7 1.3 -0.4 1.3 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 F Construction 87.5 86.9 86.5 86.0 12.2 -3.9 -0.6 -6.7 -0.2 5.6 0.6 -4.0 G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles 114.5 114.0 113.8 113.7 3.5 -2.7 -0.1 -2.6 -0.6 1.1 -0.8 -1.5 H Transportaton and storage 49.9 49.4 49.2 49.2 5.4 -4.3 0.0 -5.1 -2.3 0.6 -2.5 -4.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.4 34.1 34.1 34.0 1.7 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 J Information and communication activities 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.5 4.8 0.3 0.5 0.8 3.3 4.7 3.7 2.3 K Financial and insurance activities 24.8 24.3 24.2 24.2 4.2 -1.8 -0.2 -1.6 1.6 3.7 2.2 -0.1 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 9.6 1.1 -0.1 0.1 5.5 10.1 4.8 3.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.5 45.1 45.3 45.7 7.1 2.8 0.9 3.8 4.9 6.3 4.2 4.5 N Administrative and support service activities 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 5.2 -0.8 0.5 -3.3 -1.9 0.6 -2.5 -3.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.6 1.3 1.6 -0.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.3 P Education 61.7 60.4 62.0 62.4 1.5 2.4 0.6 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.2 Q Human health and social work activities 52.4 52.2 52.2 52.1 2.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.4 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 6.5 0.8 0.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 S Other service activities 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 1.3 1.9 0.1 2.3 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.8 T Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods and services 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 6.4 8.1 0.7 5.1 8.5 9.9 10.5 6.6 Vir: SURS, preračuni UMAR. Figure 17: Persons in formal employment Number in 1,000 ---Y-o-y growth (right axis) -Monthly growth (right axis) -----Seasonally adjusted monthly growth (right axis) _g 860 SE Source: SORS. The number of registered unemployed increased to 95,446 in November and 96,672 in December. Seasonally adjusted, November's increase (2.4%) was slightly smaller than in the previous two months. The number of persons who lost jobs was still high (7,900), yet lower than in October, while the number of those who landed jobs (4,783) 6 880 4 870 2 0 850 840 830 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 15 Current Economic Trends increased relative to October. Both numbers were more than two fifths higher than what was recorded a year earlier. Inflows into unemployment are still mainly due to the termination of temporary employment contracts, while in October and November, one of the main reasons was also work loss as a result of bankruptcy (Mura). The inflow of first-time job seekers into unemployment did not exceed the typical seasonal figure, while the outflow from unemployment for reasons other than employment was similar to what was recorded in October. Enrolment in formal training programmes for the unemployed was also high in November (1,020 persons), as was the number of persons struck off the unemployment register for failing to fulfil their duties as unemployed persons (mainly because they were unavailable for work). The registered unemployment rate climbed to 10.0% in October. Figure 18: Inflow into registered unemployment by reason for work loss ■ Other ■ Business reasons ■ Bankruptcy ■ Written statement I Expiry of temporary employment contracts Source: ESS. Table 5: Labour market indicators in % 2008 X 09/ IX 09 X 09/ X 08 I-X 09/ I-X 08 Labour force -0.6 0.3 -0.6 0.4 Persons in formal employment 3.1 -0.4 -4.2 -2.1 Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.1 -0.5 -5.0 -2.4 Registered unemployed 11.4 7.0 51.1 34.2 Average nominal gross wage 8.3 1.0 1.7 3.8 -private sector 7.8 0.8 0.6 1.8 -public sector 9.8 1.0 1.8 7.9 2008 X 08 IX 09 X 09 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 6.7 6.7 9.4 10.0 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1.391.43 1.424.08 1.433.93 1.448.13 Private sector (in EUR) 1.315.49 1.337.90 1.334.94 1.345.63 Public sector (in EUR) 1.642.58 1.710.05 1.735.15 1.741.05 Slovenia's government adopted the Plan of the Active Employment Policy Programme for 2010 and 2011, according to which it will, given the expected deterioration on the labour market, allocate EUR 134 m for active labour market policy programmes in 2010, which will include 78,000 persons (20,000 more than planned for 2009). Within that, at least 16,000 persons will find work directly through subsidy schemes for employment, self-employment and public works (in 2009, 12,275 persons found jobs directly through active labour-market policy programmes in January-November8), in addition to 8,670 transitions into employment from training programmes. Figure 19: Nominal gross wage per employee9 14 12 -C ä o 10 CT "rö C 8 E o 6 o 4 2 0 -2 j -Total 11 -Private sector -----Public sector i i \ / x 'r i y j ; y, i • Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In both sectors, the average wage per employee increased in October, but its growth slowed again y-o-y and was significantly lower than at the beginning of the year. In October, the average gross wage per employee increased by a nominal 1.0%, but its growth slowed to 1.7% y-o-y. In the first ten months, it was more than half lower (3.8%) than in the same period of 2008 and much faster in the public than in the private sector. In October, the average wage per employee in the private sector was also partly higher due to year-end payments, while its growth declined further y-o-y. With the same number of working days as in September, the average gross wage declined modestly or not at all in October in most activities, even though October is the month when 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses start to be paid out. Owing to above-average growth rates in certain activities (electricity, gas and steam supply: 5.7%; financial and insurance activities: 6.5%), the average growth in the private sector has already reached 1.3%. The gross wage Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. 8 See SEM, November 2009. 9 As a result of significant changes in the structure of employment in the private sector, in October 2009, y-o-y growth in the total gross wage per employee was approximately 0.4 p.p. higher than according to the calculations by individual sectors. 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends growth in this sector slowed somewhat further y-o-y and was 1.8% in the first ten months, 7.1 p.p. slower than in the same period of 2008. Figure 20: Gross wages in the private sector -Industry and construction (B-F) -Services (G-N;S) Figure 21: Gross wages in the public sector Public administration - Education Human health and social work act. Arts, entertainment, recreation Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average wage in the public sector increased slightly in October, while its growth slowed again y-o-y and was significantly lower than at the beginning of the year. The average gross wage in this sector increased slightly10 in October (0.3%), while its growth slowed y-o-y (1.8%), reaching 7.9% in the first ten months of 2009. It is still highest in health and social work and lowest in education. Prices Consumer prices increased by 1.8 % in 2009. After being relatively high in 2007 (5.6%), inflation slowed to 2.1% in 2008 and was again relatively low in 2009. Due to the increase in services prices and because of economic policy measures, Slovenia's inflation was among the highest in the euro area. In the euro area, consumer prices increased by an average of 0.9% in 2009, according to Eurostat's first estimates. The increase was highest in Greece, with 30 25 20 8 10 6 5 4 0 2 0 Table 6: Prices 2008 2009 v % XII 08/ $ (I 08-XII 08)/ XI 09/ XI 09/ ® (XII 08-XI 09)/ XII 07 ® (I 06-XII 07) X 09 XI 08 ® (XII 06-XI 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 0.9 1.6 0.9 Goods 1.3 6.0 1.3 1.5 0.0 -Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 3.2 8.0 -5.1 -Other 3.2 5.0 1.0 0.3 0.9 Services 3.8 5.0 -0.1 1.9 2.8 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 0.8 1.8 0.8 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 5.8 7.3 -5.9 -Energy -11.9 14.4 5.0 5.8 -11.0 -Other 0.4 0.1 7.0 9.7 2.4 Core inflation -excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 0.9 1.6 0.9 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers -domestic market 3.1 5.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.1 -EMU -0.1 2.1 -0.4 -2.8 -3.4 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years.2The measure of core inflation ("Trimm mean") is optimised on monthly basis, hence some minor revisions of historical data are possible. 10 Particularly in recreational, cultural and sporting activities, where the majority of the employed persons work in the private sector (3.9%), followed by health and social work (1.3%), while it stagnated in education (0.1%) and declined in public administration (-1.0%). Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 17 Current Economic Trends Box2: Administered prices The share of administered prices in the consumer price index declined also in 2009 by our estimate. The share of prices under various regimes of regulation, which has been diminishing since the liberalisation of the household electricity market in 2007, also dropped in 2009. As recently as in 2008, this share had totalled 13.1% by our estimate, but dropped to 9.0% in 2009. The total share of administered prices in the index used to measure consumer price movements by SORS has otherwise already been declining steadily since 1992, when it was at 33.7%. The method of price regulation has also been changing over the years. Prices were under direct government control until 2000, when this type of control started to be substituted gradually by administered pricing using mathematical models and control by independent regulatory agencies. In 2009, the model approach was thus used to regulate three quarters of all administered prices in the consumer price index. In 2009, prices under different regimes of regulation increased more than planned. Administered prices rose by 12.0%, which is largely related to growing prices of liquid fuels (more than half of their growth comes from higher excise duties). Other administered prices increased by 4.0 %, among other reasons also due to unplanned rises of the radio and television (RTV) contribution and prices of vignettes, along with a rise in passenger railway transport prices, which was also somewhat higher than planned in the Administered Prices Adjustment Plan for 2008 and 2009. Higher-than-expected growth in administered prices also reflects the changes in how the prices of municipal services are set. In August, the government passed the responsibility for setting municipal services prices to local communities, which resulted in a lower control over these prices as well as lower predictability of price changes; it is also regarded as a step back in the systemic regulation of setting municipal services prices. We had warned as early as in August that these prices might rise significantly with the regulation change, and many municipalities indeed saw significant increases soon after the changes had taken effect. This was reflected in the consumer price index in November, when prices of municipal services increased by 11.9% due to higher prices for water supply in Ljubljana, contributing 0.3 p.p. to inflation in 2009. At the end of last year, the government adopted the Administered Prices Adjustment Plan for 2010 and 2011, setting the inflation goal of the ECB amounting to close to 2% y-o-y, as the target for administered prices growth. The current Plan is restrictive, in that it anticipates that the total increase in administered prices (excluding energy prices) will not exceed 0.2% in an individual year. y-o-y inflation totalling 2.1%11 in November. This was also the only euro area country to post higher inflation than Slovenia in November. In 2009, price movements were greatly affected by oil price movements and weak economic activity. Inflation continued to slow y-o-y in the first half of the year, even though oil prices were increasing relative to the beginning of the year, due to the base effect associated with oil price drops and the stabilisation of the food price level in the second half of 2008. Prices of non-energy industrial goods also started to slow relatively quickly in this period, which is attributable to slowing economic activity. As a result, growth in services prices also moderated gradually, yet more slowly than price rises of non-energy goods. Using economic policy measures to stabilise general government inflows, the government took advantage of the Figure 22: Inflation in EU countries - November 2009 V —■■■I 1 The latest available data. Source: Eurostat. 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 3: Comparable price levels In the year 2008, the general price level in Slovenia totalled nearly 81% of the average level in the EU-27. Eurostat released data on comparable price levels for European countries, the US and Japan for 2008. More developed countries posted comparatively high general price levels in 2008, while the general price level in Slovenia was below the EU-27 average. Compared with neighbouring countries, it was lower than in Austria and Italy and higher than in Croatia and Hungary. Price level differences across countries are gradually diminishing, according to the released data; the gap is, as expected, widest for the prices of services, which is related to the level of economic development. Price level convergence takes place according to a country's catching up with economic development, from countries with lower general price levels to those where price levels are higher. The general price level in Slovenia was almost 20% lower than the EU-27 average in 2008, after being roughly 27% lower in 2005. Figure 24: Comparative price levels General price level Food Energy Goods Non-durable goods Semi-durable goods Durable goods Services ■ 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 EU-27 =100 Source: Eurostat. In 2008, Slovenia recorded above-average prices of semi-durable goods, while the widest gap behind the European average was posted for prices of services. A detailed review of data on comparable price levels shows that in 2008, Slovenia had higher prices than the EU-27 average for semi-durables (particularly clothes and footwear); the price level of these goods was approximately 5% higher in Slovenia. The price level of non-durable goods was below average in Slovenia (-13.0%): the price levels of food and energy were around 8% and 14% lower, respectively. The price level of durable goods was 4.0% lower. The price level of services has differed most notably from the average in recent years, being 25.0% below the EU-27 average in 2008. This is otherwise typical for all countries with similar or lower levels of economic development as Slovenia. Prices of services are largely based on labour costs, which tend to be lower in less developed countries and are changing in line with labour productivity growth in the tradable sector. Slovenia is thus expected to post a lower level of services prices than its more advanced counterparts as long as labour productivity in Slovenia's tradable sector is lower than in the tradable sectors of more advanced countries. rapid y-o-y inflation decline in this period, raising excise duties on liquid fuels several times, while leaving the retail prices more or less unchanged. Excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products and alcohol were also raised. Excise duty rises contributed around 1 p.p. to 1.8% inflation, of which excise duties on liquid fuels for transport and heating 0.7 p.p., excise duties on tobacco 0.2 p.p. and excise duties on alcohol 0.1 p.p. Last year thus saw the highest contribution of tax changes to inflation since 2002. Due to a combined impact of the base effect and weak economic activity on the movement of prices, Slovenia recorded y-o-y deflation for the first time on record in the second half of the year (July), which was shortlived, as expected. Y-o-y price rises fluctuated around zero until November, but this changed at the end of the year, in line with expectations, due to the prices of liquid fuels. In the second half of 2009, prices of non-energy industrial goods declined y-o-y, and prices of food to some extent, while growth of services prices continued to slow down. Prices of non-energy industrial goods thus dropped by 1.2% y-o-y12 in November, food prices by 0.9%, while services prices increased by 1.9%. Figure 25: Impact of economic policy measures on inflation by years 2,5 -0,5 (^oooooooooo (^oooooooooo ^rNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrsrN Source: SORS; estimated by IMAD. 12 HICP data. 19 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 26: Price rises by selected groups, HICP -All-items CPI —•— Energy ---Non-energy industrial goods ---------Services ---Processed food ---------Unprocessed food 18 15 12 - 0 -3 Figure 28: Real effective exchange rate deflated by CPI and its components N \ 's \ \ \ ~~~— V -V-/-" ■—■ ? - Source: Eurostat. The y-o-y decline in the producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market was also smaller in November. Prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market dropped in November (-0.1%), but their y-o-y decline was smaller for the third consecutive month, this time by 0.3 p.p., totalling -1.1%. The slowdown in the total y-o-y price decline was mainly due to the increasingly smaller y-o-y decline of prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products. After accounting for 15.5% as recently as in August, this decline totalled 8.2% in November. Figure 27: Domestic producer prices of manufactured goods 25 20 15 n 10 * 5 O o 0 >- -5 -10 -15 -20 - PPI (domestic market) -EL., GAS, STEAM, AIR COND. SUPPLY -MANUFACTURING - Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. machin. and equipm. Mfr. of food products;beverages and tobacco products Worsening steadily from month to month, the price competitiveness of the economy also deteriorated somewhat more markedly y-o-y in October, but this deterioration was one of the lowest in the euro area. October's growth of I Real effective exchange rate - Nominal effective exchange rate - Relative prices >" 1 Source: ECB, SORS, OECD; calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members deflated by HICP n 3 iLUMI Source: ECB; calculations by IMAd. the real effective exchange rate measured by relative13 consumer prices (0.4% per month, 2.1% y-o-y) was due to the stronger euro. Since mid-2009, consumer price growth, which contributed decisively to the deterioration of Slovenia's cost competitiveness for the year and a half after the adoption of the euro, has been consistent with consumer price growth in Slovenia's trading partners. In October, the euro also appreciated more notably against the US dollar y-o-y, after strengthening for several months; the y-o-y deterioration of price competitiveness was therefore higher, after a year of relatively stable movements. Given the structure of Slovenia's foreign trade, in which the USD share is relatively small, the y-o-y deterioration was smaller than in most other euro area countries. 3 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 5 4 3 2 0 12 7 6 5 4 o 2 0 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 7: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness, y-o-y growth rates in % 2007 2008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal 0.8 0.5 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 Real, deflator CPI 2.3 2.8 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 Real, deflator PPI 2.2 0.8 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 Real, deflator ULC 1.9 3.3 3.0 8.2 5.1 2.6 Unit labour costs, economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 2.6 6.2 9.0 15.2 11.6 7.6 Compenstaion per employee, nominal 6.4 7.0 5.7 5.3 3.0 2.1 Labour productivity, real 3.7 0.7 -3.0 -8.6 -7.7 -5.1 Real unit labour costs -1.5 2.3 5.3 10.8 8.6 6.4 Labour productivity, nominal 8.1 4.5 0.4 -4.9 -5.2 -4.0 Source: SORS, ECB, EUROSTAT, OECD; calculations by IMAD. Note: Velative to 17 most important trading partners. In the first ten months of 2009 as a whole, Slovenia was still among the countries where price competitiveness deteriorated most notably y-o-y, given that in the period to September, the y-o-y drops of the euro against the US dollar had a smaller impact on the movements of price competitiveness in Slovenia. Figure 30: Cost competitiveness of the economy 15 12 9 ä 6 CT ? 3 0 -3 -6 8S9S&S9S8 5 5 5 5 Source: SORS, ECB, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. In the third quarter, y-o-y movements of cost competitiveness in Slovenia were worse again than in other euro area countries and in the EU, but since the second quarter, Slovenia's gaps with the euro area average and the EU were less pronounced. In the third quarter, unit labour costs continued to grow at a slower pace under the influence of slower growth of compensation per employee and a lower labour productivity drop. In the third quarter, the growth of compensation per employee also slowed as a result of lower wage rises in the public sector, while until the second quarter, the slowdown had been largely due to lower y-o-y growth in private sector wages. The labour productivity drop was also smaller than in the second quarter, largely owing to lower employment, given that the economic activity decline was similar to the second quarter. The growth of unit labour costs, if considerably slower, was still among the highest compared with what was posted in other euro area members and in the EU, but the differences were much smaller than in the second quarter.14 This is also reflected in a moderate increase in the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative growth of unit labour costs (from 5.1% in the second quarter to 2.6%, by estimate). Figure 31: Real unit labour costs in the third quarter of 2009 in EU members I Compensation per employee, real ■ Labour productivity, real ■ RULC LU Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 14 Since the third quarter of 2008, Slovenia was among the euro area members as well as EU countries with the highest rises in real unit labour costs. In the first quarter of 2009, when disparities were highest, Slovenia diverged by 6.8 p.p. from the euro area average in terms of this growth, in the second quarter by 3.9 p.p., in the third by 4.1 p.p. (and from the EU average by 7.3 p.p., 3.6 p.p. and 4.2 p.p., respectively). The narrowing of the gap was to a large extent due to more consistent rises of wages or compensations of employees per employee compared with the euro area and EU averages, while the labour productivity drop in the third quarter was, despite lower disparities, still markedly higher in Slovenia than on average in the euro area and in the EU. 18 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 10 12 14 21 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Balance of payments I-X 09, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-X 08 Current account 18.525,3 18.511,6 13,8 -1.789,0 -Trade balance (FOB) 13.499,6 13.785,9 -286,4 -2.173,8 -Services 3.625,3 2.552,8 1.072,5 1.444,2 -Income 828,6 1.392,9 -564,2 -886,1 Current transfers 571,8 780,0 -208,1 -173,3 Capital and financial account 1.241,9 -1.298,0 -56,1 1.677,5 -Capital account 174,4 -142,2 32,2 -9,2 -Capital transfers 173,1 -135,8 37,3 -11,0 -Patents, licences 1,3 -6,4 -5,1 1,8 -Financial account 1.067,5 -1.155,8 -88,3 1.686,6 -Direct investment 9,1 -573,1 -564,0 60,6 -Portfolio investment 4.424,6 -92,1 4.332,6 -295,3 -Financial derivates -22,2 28,8 6,6 41,9 -Other investment -3.498,8 -519,4 -4.018,2 1.846,5 -Assets 176,1 -519,4 -343,3 -1.212,5 -Liabilities -3.674,9 0,0 -3.674,9 3.059,1 -Reserve assets 154,8 0,0 154,8 32,9 Net errors and omissions 42,4 0,0 42,4 111,5 Source: BS. Note: 1minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Balance of payments The current account recorded a surplus of EUR 13.8 m in the first ten months of2009 (a deficit of EUR 1,789.0 m in the same period of2008). The current account of the balance of payments recorded a slight surplus in October (EUR 2.9 m). The merchandise trade balance and the balance of factor incomes improved again y-o-y, while the surplus in the services balance continues to decline. Figure 32: Components of the current account balance I Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account Services balance I Current transfers 5 According to the balance of payments statistics. The practically equilibrated merchandise trade balance is almost entirely due to the shrinking deficit in trade with EU Member States. The y-o-y drop in export flows slowed further in comparison with September, but the drop of imports remained high. The merchandise trade balance thus again recorded a slight surplus in October. As in previous months, the y-o-y improvement in the balance of merchandise trade was thus largely a result of trade with the EU Member States. In the first ten months of 2009, the cumulative deficit in merchandise trade with the EU amounted to EUR 1.4 bn, while it had been significantly higher in the same period of 2008 (EUR 3.3 bn).15 The cumulative surplus in trade with non-EU members remained roughly unchanged (EUR 1.1 bn). Also in October, the deficit in factor incomes narrowed chiefly on account of net interest payments on foreign loans. The greatest y-o-y decline was recorded for net interest payments by domestic commercial banks. Net interest payments by the BS and other sectors also dropped. Net receipts from portfolio investment are falling as a result of higher interest payments by the general government. The total net interest payments to the rest of the world recorded a significant y-o-y drop in the first ten months of 2009 (by EUR 262.8 m). The surplus in labour income is increasing, largely due to lower expenditure on the compensation of employees abroad. The surplus in the services balance narrowed y-o-y in October. This was largely a result of a lower trade surplus in travel and road transport services, which is to a great extent related to the volume of merchandise trade. Within trade in other services, the greatest declines were posted 200 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 22 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends for surpluses in construction and merchanting services, while the trade deficit in licences, patents and copyrights widened. In the first ten months of 2009, the surplus in the services balance totalled EUR 1,072.5 m, EUR 371.8 m less than in the same period of 2008. Also in October, the higher deficit in current transfers was mainly due to the government sector. The state budget recorded a deficit against the EU budget for the third month in a row, largely as a consequence of higher GNI-based payments, which otherwise account for the bulk of general government payments into the EU budget. The first ten months of 2009 saw a deficit of EUR 38.1 m (EUR 77.7 m in the same period of 2008). The general government deficit was mainly due to payments of taxes and contributions to the rest of the world. Figure 33: Financial transactions of the balance of payments I Direct investment ■ Financial derivatives - Net financial flow I Portfolio investment I Other investment 1000 800 600 £ 200 1 -400 -600 -800 -1000 In October, international financial transactions were much more modest and the net capital inflow was slightly higher than in September. Gross capital flows were modest compared to September, while the net capital inflow was higher. The net capital inflow amounted to EUR 83.0 m in October (compared with a net outflow of EUR 166.9 m in October 2008). The net capital inflows of the BS (higher net liabilities of the BS to the Eurosystem) and of the general government were higher than the capital inflow of the private sector. In the first ten months of 2009, financial transactions posted a net capital outflow of EUR 243.1 m (in the same period of 2008, there was a net inflow of EUR 1,653.7 m). October saw the highest capital transactions in other investment. Direct investment posted net outflows in the amount of EUR 34.0 m in October. Slovenian investors mainly recorded net debt financing of affiliated subsidiaries abroad. Portfolio investment posted net outflows in the amount of EUR 15.2 m. The banking sector was selling bonds, notes and money market instruments. Other sectors, predominantly enterprises, increased investment in equity securities. With a greater decline in assets than liabilities, other investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 131.8 m in October. With regard to the assets, commercial banks were withdrawing deposits from abroad largely to repay foreign loans, while they also allocated a part of assets for lending to domestic households, according to our estimate. Short-term commercial loans to the rest of the world strengthened somewhat, reflecting the gradual monthly rises in merchandise exports in September and October. Among liabilities, the highest outflow was recorded for repayments of domestic banks' loans to the rest of the world. Non-resident deposits in Slovenian banks also declined. Cumulatively, banks repaid EUR 3.1 bn of loans in the first ten months of 2009. The general government recorded net long-term borrowing in the amount of EUR 9.7 m. After repaying its loans for three months, the BS increased its liabilities to the Eurosystem and thus deteriorated its net TARGET16 position to the ECB by EUR 136.3 m. Net liabilities under this title declined by EUR 494.9 m in the first ten months of 2009. The higher quarterly fluctuations in the net position were also due to intense Eurosystem monetary policy operations providing credit institutions with central bank funds. General government net borrowing is increasing to ensure financing of the general government deficit, debt repayment and measures aimed at stimulating lending activity. General government gross external debt rose by EUR 2,947 m from the end of 2008 through October 2009 and gross external claims in debt instruments by EUR 306 m. The net external debt of the private sector, on the other hand, declined in this period. The greatest decline was posted for the gross external debt of commercial banks (by EUR 1,554 m), while their gross claims decreased by EUR 265 m. Slovenia's gross external debt amounted to EUR 40.1 bn in total at the end of October (111.7 % of estimated GDP) and gross external claims in debt instruments to EUR 29.8 bn (83.0 % of GDP). Total net external debt was thus EUR 10.3 bn and increased by EUR 416 m or by 2.1 p.p. to 28.6% of GDP compared with the end of 2008. Financial markets The lending activity of domestic banks continued to shrink in November. After growing at exceptionally low rates in the previous three months, the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined in November for the third time in 2009, this time in the amount of 0.1%. Non-banking sectors thus repaid loans in a net amount of EUR 42.3 m in November. Net borrowing was only posted for households, while enterprises and NFI net repaid their loans for the third month in a row. Liquidity on interbank markets remains modest, as do inflows of household bank deposits. 16 Real-time gross settlement system through the Eurosystem, used for the settlement of central bank operations, large-value interbank funds transfers and other euro payments. 400 -200 23 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 9: Selected indicators of financial markets Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth,, v % 31. XII 08 30. XI 09 30. XI 09/ 31. X 09 30. XI 09/ 31. XII 08 30. XI 09/ 30. XI 08 Loans total 31.549.10 32.409.77 -0.1 2.7 2.9 Enterprises and NFI 23.137.53 23.214.18 -0.4 0.3 0.5 Government 584.61 850.78 -0.4 45.5 42.6 Households 7.826.96 8.344.81 0.6 6.6 7.2 Consumer credits 2.883.95 2.897.76 -0.2 0.5 0.2 Lending for house purchase 3.395.30 3.864.25 1.5 13.8 15.8 Other lending 1.547.71 1.582.80 0.0 2.3 1.7 Bank deposits total 13.689.07 14.155.20 0.4 3.4 4.8 Overnight deposits 5.249.44 5.582.68 0.5 6.3 5.3 Short-term deposits 5.644.79 5.208.31 -2.1 -7.7 -5.6 Long-term deposits 1.957.65 2.733.32 3.9 39.6 49.8 Deposits redeemable at notice 837.19 630.88 4.6 -24.6 -26.6 Mutual funds 1.513.38 1.808.78 -0.1 19.5 12.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 34: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) Enterprises&NFI (right axis) 600 500 200 100 0 -100 Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Households (right axis) Total (right axis) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Given that credit market conditions had tightened more notably in November2008, the y-o-y growth rate of the total volume of loans declined at a slower pace in November, as expected, even though the total volume of loans recorded a monthly decline. The y-o-y growth rate thus declined only by 0.2 p.p. relative to October, to 2.9%. The total net flows of loans to non-banking sectors amounted to EUR 860.7 m in the first eleven months of 2009, not even a fifth of the value posted in the comparable period of 2008. This sizeable decline was mainly due to significantly lower borrowing of enterprises and NFI. In November, lending activity was also fairly modest in other euro area members. The net flow was positive, at EUR 21.9 bn, though it only reached approximately a quarter of the monthly average from the period before the financial crisis. Despite positive lending activity in November, the volume of loans shrank by almost EUR 10 bn in the euro area in the first eleven months of 2009, while in the comparable period of 2008, non-banking sectors still borrowed more than EUR 700 bn. As in Slovenia, corporate and NFI borrowing is also slowing more noticeably in the euro area as a whole, while household net borrowing, if more than 60% lower than in the comparable period of 2008, strengthened somewhat in the last few months, particularly in the category of housing loans, while consumer borrowing remained modest. In November, net borrowing by households was below what was recorded in previous months, but the y-o-y growth in the volume of household loans was higher due to high net repayment of loans (EUR 72.8 m) in November 2008. Unlike in previous months, households net repaid consumer loans and loans for other purposes in November. Housing borrowing, on the other hand, remained fairly stable, hovering between EUR 50 m and EUR 60 m for the fifth successive month. Its net flows were at the level of EUR 469.0 m in the first eleven months of 2009, approximately 30% below the comparable level in 2008, which is the smallest decline among all types of loans. Enterprises and NFI net repaid loans raised at domestic banks also in November, this time in the amount of EUR 89.4 m, the highest figure thus far. In the period from September to November, net outflow exceeded EUR 240 m. This time, unlike in previous months, more than three quarters of net outflows came from net repayment of NFI loans, while net repayment of corporate loans was at the lowest level in the last three months, EUR 21.9 m. Broken down by purpose, net repayment of loans for other purposes prevailed in November (EUR 94.6 m). Borrowing for investment was somewhat stronger again, after this type of loans was net repaid in October. Net flows were at EUR 28.2 m, approximately 1.5 times higher than the monthly average of the first eleven months of 2009. 800 700 400 = 300 200 -10 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Enterprises and NFI only borrowed a net EUR 76.6 m in this period, slightly more than 2% of the value posted in the comparable period last year. Even though the situation also tightened on foreign credit markets, enterprises and NFI again recorded net borrowing in October. Net inflows of foreign loans reached EUR 47.2 m, the highest figure in the last five months. In the first ten months of 2009, enterprises and NFI recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 343.6 m, more than 30% less than in the comparable period of 2008, but this slowdown was much less pronounced than for loans taken out at domestic banks. The smaller decline in net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad is, by our estimate, mainly due to the significant difference between domestic and foreign interest rates. In November, Slovenian lending interest rates17 were 280 basis points higher than the euro area average, reaching by far the highest level in all Member States. Enterprises that could otherwise also raise loans at home thus opt to do so under more favourable terms abroad. After being relatively low in the previous three months, net repayment of foreign bank loans again strengthened in October. Banks repaid foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 233.8 m, solely on account of net repayment of long-term loans. Net outflows of foreign deposits from the banking system also remain high. In the first ten months of 2009, banks thus recorded net outflows of foreign loans and deposits in a high amount of EUR 3.1 bn, of which more than three quarters came from the net repayment of loans. Figure 35: Net corporate borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates Figure 36: Interest rates on corporate and NFI loans in Slovenia and abroad 200 175 150 125 50 25 0 -25 I Loans (left axis) - Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 350 315 280 245 210 Ö c 'o 175 f ro -Q 140 Ç 105 70 35 0 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of household deposits in banks strengthened in November, after they posted net outflows in September and October. Growth was modest (0.4%), so that y-o-y growth nevertheless dropped below 5%, the lowest figure since comparable data have been available.18 After a somewhat longer break, there was a slight shift in the maturity structure of deposits again in November, recording a net outflow of more than EUR 110 m for short-term deposits and only slightly lower inflows for long-term deposits, which enjoyed the highest growth in the last eight months, at 3.9%. After being relatively high in October, net inflows in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators slowed considerably in November, reaching EUR 0.4 m, the lowest figure in the last four months. November probably saw a somewhat higher transfer of assets between individual mutual fund groups, with the highest net inflows recorded for bond mutual funds, in the amount of EUR 3.5 m. This is, by our estimate, mainly due to the transfer of assets by somewhat more conservative investors from mixed mutual funds, which recorded a net outflow in the amount of EUR 4.5 m in that period. In November, the volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded its first monthly decline in four months, albeit only in the amount of 0.1%, which is a consequence of the loss recorded on average by these mutual funds that month. The liquidity of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange remains very modest. Its turnover dropped by half in November relative to a month earlier, totalling EUR 32.0 m, the second lowest figure in 2009. Trade in shares softened most notably compared with the month before, while trade in bonds remained roughly at the same level as in October, EUR 5.1 m. The total market capitalisation recorded a 2.7% decline in November, largely due to the negative movements on the stock market, given that the market capitalisation of shares contracted by 5.3%, which was the steepest monthly decline in 2009. The 17 Interest rates for loans over EUR 1 m with a variable or up to one year with a fixed interest rate. 8 Since 2005. 8 7 6 5 4 i= 3 2 0 75 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Current Economic Trends 25 Figure 37: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds, and y-o-y growth rates I Mutual funds (left axis) I Other deposits(left axis) I Long-termtime deposits (left axis) - Deposits,total(right axis) Long-termtime deposits(rightaxis) Mutual funds (right axis) 400 300 200 0 100 1 0 ZD -100 -200 -300 80 60 40 £ 20 I 0 o -20 -40 -60 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. value of the main index on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange (SBI20) fell for the second time in December, this time by 2.4%. Thanks to exceptionally favourable movements in the second quarter of 2009, it was nevertheless more than a tenth higher than the figure posted at the end of 2008. Investments on developed capital markets proved much more profitable, on average. The MSCI World index measured in euros recorded 6.4% growth in the last months of 2009, while rising by almost a quarter y-o-y (23.0%). The growth rates of main stock exchange indices on most important capital markets were fairly even y-o-y, hovering between 18.8% (DOW JONES) and 23.8% (DAX). Figure 38: Movement of the SBI20 and other main indices -FTSE -DOW -DAX -SBI20 120 110 ?100 CO O O CN 90 c ro V 80 "rö iS 70 ■ö c m 60 c ro .C x 50 Public finance In the first eleven months of2009, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 7.4% relative to the same period a year earlier. According to the data on paid taxes and social security contributions,19 the payments totalled EUR 12 bn in the first eleven months of the year. After a significant increase in October, revenue declined by 3.3% in November. In the first eleven months, it was at a level of 92.6% in comparison with the same period last year. Revenue from excise duties was the only revenue to increase (16.8%) in the first eleven months of 2009, which is a result of higher excise duties on all excise products. Social security contributions were also slightly higher (1.3%), even if their growth is slowing from month to month, while all other taxes dropped y-o-y. Revenue from personal income tax declined by 4.1 % y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2009, largely due to higher tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments for 2008, which reached more than EUR 85 m in the first eleven months of the year (EUR 61.5 m a year before). Growth in revenue from tax on income from employment as the main category of personal income tax continues to slow (2.4%), while inflows from taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits and income from capital gains are significantly lower than in the same period of 2008 (-23.2% and -63,9%, respectively). Prepayments of corporate income tax dropped again in November relative to October, when they had been stronger, reaching in the first eleven months only slightly more than half of the value (55.4%) recorded in the same period a year before. This is a result of the fact that taxpayers can request a prepayment reduction as a result of deteriorated business performance in the current year and a lower statutory tax rate (21.0%). After the assessment in October, revenue from value added tax dropped y-o-y, by 12.9% in November and 11.1% in the first eleven months. Figure 39: Taxes and social security contributions - Taxes on income and profit Social security contributions Domestic taxes on goods and services Other taxes rc o rc o rc Source: Finance.yahoo.com,www.msci barra.com, Lbo. 500 100 576,3 -400 500 400 300 200 100 40 30 0 Source: MF. 19 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-November 2009, Public Payments Administration. 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 10: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2008 2009 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-IX 09 in EUR m IX 09/ IX 08 I-IX 09/ I-IX 08 Revenues - total 15.335,0 41,3 9,5 10.384,2 -15,4 -7,6 -Tax revenues 13.937,2 37,5 9,2 9.502,4 -13,5 -7,6 -Taxes on income and profit 3.442,1 9,3 18,0 2.060,3 -16,5 -21,0 -Social security contributions 5.095,0 13,7 10,8 3.826,8 -3,1 2,6 -Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4.805,3 12,9 6,8 3.377,1 -17,5 -3,8 -Receipts from the EU budget 365,4 1,0 5,0 314,6 -18,5 25,8 Expenditure - total 15.434,7 41,6 10,9 11.707,1 -4,3 8,3 -Wages and other personnel expenditure 3.580,6 9,6 9,3 2.921,3 1,2 11,5 -Purchases of goods and services 2.525,9 6,8 14,2 1.772,5 -6,3 4,4 -Transfers to individuals and households 5.616,2 15,1 10,3 4.526,9 11,1 10,5 -Capital expenditure 1.252,0 3,4 10,7 709,3 -37,9 -0,8 -Capital transfers 458,0 1,2 37,0 234,9 -50,4 5,0 -Payment to the EU budget 427,9 1,2 20,2 313,2 -12,7 9,4 Source: MF. According to the consolidated balance20 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 10.4 bn and general government expenditure EUR 11.7 bn in the first nine months of 2009. Revenue was 7.6% lower y-o-y in the first nine months, having been 12.9% higher in the same period of 2008. Y-o-y growth of expenditure slowed somewhat relative to previous months, totalling 8.3% in the first nine months as a whole, less than in the same period of 2008 (9.9%). A further decline in general government revenue with a concurrent increase in general government expenditure reflects the counter-cyclical effects of automatic stabilisers, as well as certain problems continuing from the past (public sector wages, pensions, inefficiency of public procurement procedures, etc.). The consolidated balance of public financing reported a deficit of EUR 1,323 m at the end of the first nine months. In terms of the economic structure of expenditures, the greatest y-o-y increase was recorded for wages and other personnel expenditures (11.5%) in the first nine months. The latter, resulting from wage reform implementation and growth in the number of employed persons, are otherwise slowing. Transfers to individuals and households also recorded significant growth (10.5 %), with growth in expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (84.1 %) strengthening due to the deterioration on the labour market. After February's valorisation of pensions, expenditure on pensions increased by 9.2% in the first nine months of the year. Growth in expenditure on goods and services totalled 4.4 % and softened somewhat in September, after strengthening in the previous month. The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 1,176 m in the first nine months. The health fund also recorded a deficit at the end of the first nine months (EUR 87 m). The transfer from the state budget to the pension fund totalled EUR 1,053 m in the first nine months as a whole, a 23.7% higher figure than in the same period of 2008. The total balance of local government budgets was also negative in the first nine months, already posting a deficit of EUR 61.3 m. Figure 40: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure ■ Revenues 2008 ■ Revenues 2009 ■ Expenditures 2008 ■ Expenditures 2009 -2000 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 20 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as the pension and health funds. selected topics 28 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Selected Topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Selected Topics 29 Social protection expenditure Social protection expenditure in Slovenia increased somewhat in real terms in 2007, while it fell again as a share of GDP, mainly as a result of rapid GDP growth. Slovenia allocated EUR 7.381 m or 21.4% of GDP for social protection in 2007, which is 1.3 p.p. less than the year before. Compared with 2006, social protection expenditure thus increased by slightly more than 1% in real terms and close to 5% in nominal terms. The share of expenditure on social protection accounted for 24.2% of GDP in 2000 and has been declining steadily since 2001. The decline is attributable to a mix of various factors: GDP growing faster than social protection receipts, changes in social protection schemes (such as pension reform), as well as fast economic growth, which was reflected in Figure 41: Expenditure on social protection as a share of GDP in 2000-2007, Slovenia, EU-25, in % \ lower unemployment and a higher level of wages. In the EU-27, 26.2% of GDP was allocated for social protection on average in 2007, 4.8 p.p. more than in Slovenia. The average share of social protection expenditure in the EU-2521 had been increasing from 2000, when it had totalled 26.5%, until 2003, while in 2004 it also started to decline. In 2000-2007, Slovenia was increasing its lag behind the EU-25 in terms of social protection expenditure as a share of GDP. Being 2.3 p.p. behind the EU-25 in 2000, Slovenia widened this gap to as much as 5 p.p. by 2007. In terms of expenditure on social protection in purchasing power standards per capita, Slovenia retained its level of social protection expenditure compared with the EU-25. Data on social protection expenditure in Figure 42: Expenditure on social protection in PPS, in EU-27, 2007 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Eurostat, Esspros, Total expenditure on social protection. -^w1" o-uu^n;1^- Source: Eurostat, Esspros. EU-25 28 26 24 22 20 0 Table 11: Social protection expenditure by function group, Slovenia and EU-25 average, 2000, 2006 and 2007 (in PPS per capita) Social protection function 2000 2006 2007 2007 Slovenia Social protection level index SLO EU 25 SLO EU 25 SLO EU 25 SLO EU 27 EU 25 = 100 2000 2006 2007 Social protection expenditure, total 3685.3 5301.9 4703.3 6604.8p 4760.5p 6805.5 p 100 100 69 71 70 Sickness/health care 1100.6 1394.9 1477.8 1853.1p 1487.8p 1911.2p 32.1 39.3 79 80 78 Disability 323.7 420.3 375.5 506.7p 363.4p 527.6p 7.8 8.1 77 74 69 Old age 1552.3 2032.2 1746.7 2496.4p 1824.6p 2592.0p 39.3 39.6 76 70 70 Survivors 71.0 340.1 344.31 428.0p 344.3p 436.2p 7.4 6.6 21 80 79 Family/children 330.7 419.9 394.1 496.4p 402.2 p 519.7p 8.7 8.0 79 79 77 Unemployment 153.0 308.8 139.9 357.1p 106.2p 332.7p 2.3 5.1 49 39 30 Housing np 110.6 3.2 144.4p 3.3p 149.2p 0.1 2.3 2 2 Social exclusion not elsewhere classified 66.2 59.2 112.3 83.2 p 107.6p 87.2p 2.3 1.3 112 135 123 Source: EUROSTAT/ESSPROS; calculations by IMAD. Note: PPS - purchasing power standards; N/A - not available; 1change in methodology, p - provisional data 21 For the EU-27, data are only available from 2005 onwards. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 30 Selected Topics purchasing power standards per capita (social protection expenditure converted to purchasing power standards -PPS), which are a more accurate indicator of the level of social protection system development, indicate that the level of expenditure remained more or less unchanged relative to the EU-25. Slovenia reached 70% of the EU-25 average in 2007; the expenditure level remained approximately unchanged since 2000, when it had totalled 69%. In terms of expenditure on social protection in purchasing power standards, Slovenia comes closest to the EU-25 in the following functions: survivors, sickness/health care and family/children. It significantly exceeds the EU-25 average in expenditure on social exclusion not elsewhere classified (also due to different systems for financing social protection programmes22), while lagging notably behind the EU-25 in expenditure on housing. In Slovenia, as in the EU-27 average, the bulk of social protection expenditure is allocated for old age and sickness/health care. In the structure of expenditure on total social protection in Slovenia, the largest shares are allocated for old age (39.3%; in the EU-27, 39.6%) and sickness/health care functions, followed by family/children, disability, survivors,23 social exclusion not elsewhere classified and housing, where Slovenia stands out the most compared with the EU-27. Regarding the distribution of social protection programmes, Slovenia is more efficient than the EU-27, with administration costs representing 2.1% of all social protection expenditure, whereas in the EU-27 these costs are almost 1 p.p. higher (3.0%). Broken down by sources of finance, in 2007 social protection in Slovenia was also mostly financed from contributions by insured persons, while social protection Figure 43: Structure of social protection receipts, EU-27, 2007 Contributions Contributions Government Other of of persons contributions contributions employers insured (budgetary sources) Source: Eurostat, Esspros. 22 In this function, Slovenia shows data on benefits for the poor, which are probably shown under other functions, such as family/children, housing, etc. in other countries. 23 Mainly expenditure on survivors' and widows' pensions. receipts in the EU-27 mainly came from contributions of employers. In Slovenia, contributions by insured persons accounted for the largest share in total social protection receipts (41%) in 2007, while in the EU-27, the largest share came from contributions paid by employers (38.5%). The share of contributions by insured persons in Slovenia was twice as high as in the EU-27, while the share of employers' contributions was almost a third lower. In Slovenia, the shares of contributions paid by insured persons and employers both increased slightly compared with the year before, while the share of general government contributions (budgetary sources) declined. Risk of poverty and material deprivation of the population The risk of poverty increased somewhat in Slovenia in 2008, but income inequality is still among the lowest in the EU-27. The at-risk-of poverty-rate24 was 12.3% in 2008, 0.8 p.p. higher than in 2007. Despite a slight increase, the at-risk-of-poverty rate, reflecting the distribution of income among the population (income poverty), still shows a fairly low degree of income inequality in Slovenia, one of the lowest in the EU-27.25 The Gini coefficient was 23.4% and the quintile share ratio 3.4 in 2008 in Slovenia, which shows a fairly even distribution of income. Within these favourable averages, the situation of certain population groups remains very bad. Among the most vulnerable groups are people who lost jobs, the elderly living alone and single parents. At highest poverty risk are persons in jobless households (39.1%), particularly those with dependent children (57.0%), single households (41.9%) and single-parent families (28.8%). Unemployed persons and tenants also have high at-risk-of-poverty rates (37.6% and 25.2%, respectively). Except tenants, all these socio-economic categories also tend to be at highest poverty risk in the EU-27. These population groups would have been even much more vulnerable, had it not been for the system of social transfers provided by the state, thanks to which poverty is on average approximately one half lower (compared with slightly more than one third in the EU-27). Subjective perceptions of the ability of households to make ends meet show a similar situation as objective data.26 Specifically, the share of people belonging in a group that had difficulty or great difficulty in making ends meet has increased. It accounted for 27% in 2008, rising from 22% in 2007. Single-parent households (39%) and single households (36%) were in the worst position within this category. 24 Calculated based on disposable income, not including income in kind. 25 Income inequality indicators in the EU-27 according to the most recent data: Gini coefficient: 31, quintile share ratio: 5, at-risk-of-poverty rate: 17%. 26 Source: SORS: Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC); SI-STAT data portal. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 31 Selected Topics Table 12: Selected indicators of poverty risk in Slovenia, 2005-2008 Dohodek brez dohodka v naravi Dohodek z dohodkom v naravi 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 At-risk-of-poverty rate, in % 12.1 11.7 11.5 12.3 11.4 11.1 11.0 11.9 At-risk-of-poverty threshold - monthly, in EUR 440 466 495 545 460 480 509 557 At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a household consisting of two adults and two children - monthly, in EUR 924 978 1.040 1.144 965 1.009 1.069 1.169 At-risk-of-poverty rate before social transfers (old-age and survivor's pensions are included in income), in % 25.8 24.2 23.1 23.0 24.8 23.2 22.8 22.2 At-risk-of-poverty rate before all social transfers,1 in % 42.2 40.7 39.7 38.6 40.9 39.3 39.2 37.8 At-risk of poverty rate for men, % 10.6 10.3 10.1 11.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 10.4 At-risk of poverty rate for women, % 13.6 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.2 12.6 12.4 13.2 At-risk of poverty rate for children (aged 0-15) 11.9 11.5 11.3 11.6 11.1 10.8 10.8 11.3 At-risk of poverty rate for youth (aged 16-24) 10.8 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.3 9.3 9.2 10.2 At-risk of poverty rate for employed persons (aged 16-64) 10.4 9.8 9.8 10.5 9.9 9.3 9.3 10.1 At-risk of poverty rate for the elderly (aged 65 and over) 25.7 23.1 23.9 25.9 25.1 23.1 23.4 25.1 Inequality of income distribution - quintile share ratio (80/20) 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 Inequality of income distribution - Gini coefficient, in % 23.8 23.8 23.2 23.4 23.0 23.0 22.6 22.9 Source: SORS; : Social cohesion indicators. Note: 1 The figure only takes into account individuals without pensions or other social transfers - the risk of poverty would be this high if the population did not receive any pensions or other social transfers.. In 2008, data on material deprivation were published for the first time alongside the at-risk-of-poverty rate. While the latter only indicates the distribution of income, the material deprivation rate shows the share of materially deprived people who cannot afford a decent standard of living. Data on material deprivation provide27 a more comprehensive and deeper understanding of poverty and reveal long-term consequences of a bad financial situation for households. Though important, income-based data on poverty and inequality nonetheless fail to give a comprehensive picture of diversity of living conditions in the EU-27. More specifically, in assessing the poverty risk based on income, there is a realistic limitation in the availability of data, for example on the self-employed and people working in the grey economy, as well as non-monetary transfers, debts and profits of households, if any, as well as income from property, etc., most of which are not included in the survey. The material deprivation rate shows the percentage of people who are deprived in at least three dimensions of material deprivation. In February 2009, the European Commission determined nine material deprivation items,28 which show a lack of resources and are used in calculating the material deprivation rate. These items29 will be additionally tested in the EU-SILC 2009 module and will constitute a basis for further studies on this topic in the future. They 27 Obtained with the Survey on Income and Labour Conditions (EU-SILC).. 28 European Commission (Eurostat): What Can be Learned from Deprivation Indicators in Europe; Methodologies and working papers; Luxembourg, 2009. 29 Material deprivation items: The household cannot afford: 1. to face unexpected expenses, 2. one week annual holiday away from home, 3. a meal with meat, chicken or fish (or vegetarian equivalent) at least every second day, 4. to pay for arrears (mortgage or rent, utility bills or hire purchase instalments), 5. to keep home adequately warm, 6. to have a washing machine, 7. to have a colour TV, 8. to have a telephone, 9. to have a personal car. refer to the possession or the lack of durable goods and to what is called the economic strain on households. They will help to highlight two core elements of the poverty definition: a) inability to participate in society and b) lack of resources. It has to be noted that they measure material deprivation as a consequence of limited resources of households rather than differences in tastes, lifestyle preferences, personal choices and living conditions. The latter were tested in an EU-wide Eurobarometer survey in 2007, according to which all items listed in the EU-SILC survey were considered necessary or absolutely necessary to have a decent standard of living by at least half of respondents.30 Eurostat released the above-mentioned survey in 2009, publishing, for the first time, the calculation of the material deprivation rate (for 2006). SORS calculated and published material deprivation rates for 2005-2008 at the end of 2009. The material deprivation rate in Slovenia is relatively low, but it increased by 2.6 p.p. in 2008. The material deprivation rate totalled 16.9% in Slovenia in 2008, which indicates the proportion of people deprived in at least three out of nine indicators of material deprivation. The highest material deprivation rate was recorded for elderly women (65+), 23.9%. SORS also calculated material deprivation rates for persons with incomes below the at-risk-of-pov-erty threshold (the population group considered as poor) and above it (the population not considered as poor). The material deprivation rate for the former group was 42.7% in 2008, but was also not negligible for people that are not regarded poor (13.3%). In all analysed years (from 2005 to 2008), the intensity of material deprivation in 30 Recognising each indicator as more or less equally important to assess the standard of living of the population, researchers decided to consider deprived those households who lack three material deprivation items out of nine. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 32 Selected Topics Slovenia was 3.5, which stands for the mean number of items lacked out of a total of nine. This is approximately the same number of items as lacked, on average, by people in Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Germany and Cyprus. According to the comparative data by Eurostat (in 2006), which are only available for 2006, Slovenia was ranked in the third of countries with relatively low material deprivation rates, next to Italy, Germany, Belgium and France. The at-risk-of-poverty rate (11.7%) in Slovenia is not significantly different from the material deprivation rate (14.5%). In some countries, however, the differences are high, as people can suffer high material deprivation despite a low at-risk-of-poverty rate (and conversely). Rich countries, which post relatively high at-risk-of-poverty rates, have very low rates of material deprivation. Figure 44: Material deprivation and at-risk-of-poverty rates in the EU-27, 2006 50 45 40 35 5 30 ro 25 S o iS 20 15 10 5 0 ■ Material deprivation rate At-risk-of-povertyrate Source: Eurostat, EU-SILC 2006. Note: data for Bulgaria are not available. statistical appendix 34 Slovenian Economic Mirror, december 2009 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 35 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autumn forecast 2009 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates. in %) 4.3 4.5 5.8 6.8 3.5 -7.3 0.9 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 27.162 28.750 31.055 34.568 37.135 35.870 36.386 38.058 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 13.599 14.369 15.467 17.123 18.367 17.657 17.866 18.647 GDP per capita (PPS)1 18.700 19.600 20.700 22.200 23.100 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 86.4 87.4 87.6 89.2 92.1 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26.760 28.506 30.683 33.854 36.278 35.244 35.527 37.004 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26.716 28.362 30.467 33.627 35.993 35.065 35.441 36.783 Rate of registered unemployment 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.6 10.9 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.0 2.5 3.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 1.0 1.5 2.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.8 Exports of goods 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -19.0 3.6 6.5 Exports of services 10.9 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -13.5 6.1 7.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -19.8 1.8 4.9 Imports of goods 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -21.9 1.3 4.8 Imports of services 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -6.1 4.4 5.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -720 -498 -771 -1.646 -2.287 -82 10 29 - As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 15.343 20.496 24.067 34.752 38.997 40.0524 - - As a per cent share relative to GDP 56.7 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.37 1.47 1.38 1.43 1.43 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.7 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 - As a % of GDP* 55.0 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 53.7 53.8 53.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.2 -1.5 0.0 - As a % of GDP* 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.1 19.7 19.4 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 5.6 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.0 -2.0 3.0 - As a % of GDP* 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 23.7 23.2 23.3 Sources of data: SORS. BS. Eurostat-New Cronos. estimate. calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B.. imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreignmarkets; 4End September 2009; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 36 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.7 7.2 2.5 7.5 5.3 6.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.7 -24.2 -17.8 11.0 3.0 1.3 5.2 12.9 B Mining and quarrying 7.5 5.5 5.5 8.1 -7.3 13.8 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.1 -13.8 5.7 -0.9 -5.9 -16.4 23.1 18.8 C Manufacturing 6.2 8.5 2.6 8.2 7.2 6.9 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -20.3 -25.4 -18.8 12.7 4.4 4.0 5.8 13.6 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -1.0 -11.1 2.1 -5.0 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.6 -9.1 -10.2 -10.9 -14.4 -21.5 -6.3 1.2 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 18.5 15.7 16.2 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 7.3 6.2 -14.3 39.4 40.5 Buildings 17.1 14.3 11.5 7.3 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 0.5 18.4 -5.4 56.3 44.8 Civil engineering 14.6 21.9 18.9 23.3 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 11.7 -2.3 -21.0 23.9 36.8 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 18.4 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 - - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 -2.3 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 - - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.2 -15.8 -16.2 16.8 11.7 7.0 18.1 23.8 Real turnover in retail trade 2.7 6.1 12.2 7.8 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.6 -11.9 -14.3 11.0 9.5 8.5 12.8 23.8 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 17.8 19.2 6.2 24.8 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.5 32.7 17.7 3.4 34.7 26.3 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.1 15.1 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.8 -26.7 19.5 19.2 7.5 21.6 30.1 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 1.7 4.6 8.3 4.0 2.9 9.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 11.7 4.2 2.6 9.6 12.1 11.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 -4.7 4.8 13.7 -0.9 -2.6 5.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 2.3 -2.8 4.0 2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.5 -12.8 -11.7 2.8 2.6 3.2 -2.5 3.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 46.2 53.1 61.0 38.5 39.3 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 1 13 11 10 7 3 -16 -25 -24 -20 12 10 11 11 10 Confidence indicator in manufacturing 10 12 -5 12 10 7 1 -6 -23 -29 -26 -22 11 9 10 9 6 in construction 4 17 3 15 13 14 11 4 -17 -42 -52 -53 12 9 17 12 12 in services 27 29 22 30 26 30 27 25 7 -14 -18 -11 27 23 28 28 31 in retail trade 22 27 23 29 30 29 29 26 9 -16 -17 -12 28 31 31 25 28 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -10 -18 -20 -16 -16 -28 -40 -31 -23 -17 -19 -17 -23 -20 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 37 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.7 14.8 3.8 6.8 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -17.9 -21.7 -16.5 -29.3 -21.9 -21.3 -20.2 -16.8 -16.3 -18.4 - - 3.6 9.5 -4.4 5.6 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -6.0 -3.1 -8.9 -21.7 -10.3 -8.1 4.2 12.9 1.5 -4.6 - - 2.0 15.6 4.2 6.7 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -19.4 -23.8 -17.7 -30.8 -23.2 -22.1 -21.3 -18.3 -16.7 -19.5 - - -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.6 -1.9 -3.2 -9.9 -5.3 -11.8 -10.1 -8.0 -12.5 -5.9 - - 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32 -28.2 - - 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -27.9 - - 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.7 -16.9 -17.3 -13.0 -15.1 -15.0 -18.4 -13.3 - - 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.3 -9.8 -15.3 -10.3 -12.1 -13.6 -17.2 -13.4 -13.9 - 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.5 -34.7 -25.7 -23.2 -25.5 -20.5 -24.6 -16.2 -12.4 - 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.8 -25.3 -21.0 -27.5 -25.2 -27.3 -23.7 - - 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 4.9 0.2 3.3 -6.0 - -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 9.9 -4.0 - 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 0.1 -4.1 -1.8 -8.0 - -5.7 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -7.4 -12.3 -9.5 -11.7 -13.5 -13.6 -12.2 -9.8 -13.2 -13.6 - - 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 - - 10 10 7 5 4 4 2 -5 -20 -23 -24 -24 -25 -26 -23 -22 -22 -21 -18 -20 -19 -19 6 4 1 -2 -4 -5 -8 -13 -27 -29 -30 -29 -29 -28 -26 -25 -25 -22 -19 -17 -17 -15 17 13 11 8 7 1 3 -4 -17 -30 -38 -40 -47 -54 -49 -54 -50 -56 -54 -54 -47 -48 31 30 26 24 24 27 24 19 4 -3 -9 -14 -19 -23 -17 -15 -13 -12 -8 -8 -9 -10 32 29 30 27 29 25 24 25 4 -4 -14 -14 -21 -17 -17 -18 -15 -9 -9 -11 -11 -9 -16 -12 -18 -19 -18 -19 -12 -17 -33 -35 -43 -38 -37 -41 -29 -23 -26 -27 -16 -26 -24 -26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 38 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 40.4 39.7 39.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 39.3 39.3 39.2 40.7 In industry, construction 310.9 321.9 330.4 324.1 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 327.1 327.9 325.3 325.8 - Of which: in manufacturing 221.7 223.6 222.4 223.4 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 224.4 224.7 223.5 223.7 - in construction 69.5 78.4 87.9 80.6 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 82.5 83.1 81.8 82.1 In services 476.2 491.6 509.1 492.1 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 498.1 500.3 499.9 500.9 - Of which: in public administration 50.4 50.3 51.0 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 50.5 50.5 50.7 50.9 - in education, health-services, social work 108.0 108.8 111.1 108.2 109.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 109.7 109.9 109.7 110.3 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 741.6 766.0 789.9 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 83.3 87.9 89.4 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 85.8 71.3 63.2 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.8 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 9.3 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 1.9 -4.8 -5.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 4.8 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 24.8 14.4 16.0 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.2 4.4 6.0 4.0 13.1 7.5 5.5 4.6 -0.3 7.1 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 8.6 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 18.2 13.6 9.7 14.5 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; ^according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 39 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 -2.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 3.9 3.7 5.5 2.1 2.7 5.8 5.7 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 40 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 6.9 5.7 4.9 6.6 7.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.6 8.3 9.1 7.0 11.4 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 8.4 9.0 3.6 7.4 16.1 B Mining and quarrying 4.5 6.4 13.4 5.3 12.6 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 6.1 3.3 6.6 8.8 9.4 C Manufacturing 5.6 7.0 7.5 7.0 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 7.6 7.1 6.2 8.1 9.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 5.5 6.2 9.5 5.2 11.1 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 2.0 5.0 8.5 12.1 9.9 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3.7 7.1 7.8 6.8 10.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 7.7 6.1 6.8 8.2 12.6 F Constrution 6.4 6.6 7.5 5.7 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 8.6 5.4 3.3 6.7 7.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 5.3 7.6 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 7.9 7.8 6.9 7.1 8.5 H Transportation and storage 3.6 6.0 8.4 5.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 6.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 8.6 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.1 5.3 8.3 4.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 5.7 4.9 3.2 7.0 8.8 J Information and communication 3.9 5.7 7.3 5.7 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 7.6 6.3 3.2 8.1 -2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 8.6 7.4 6.0 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 8.9 7.7 2.2 13.8 8.0 L Real estate activitiesi 4.6 7.0 6.0 7.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 8.6 7.7 5.9 5.0 7.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.9 7.0 8.4 7.1 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 8.0 6.7 6.6 8.3 10.0 N Administrative and support service activities 2.5 7.5 9.6 9.4 9.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.7 10.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2.9 5.1 12.2 6.5 6.4 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 8.7 4.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 P Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 4.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 Q Human health and social work activities 2.4 3.1 12.0 4.0 2.1 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 5.4 3.4 3.2 1.8 1.8 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.3 3.6 5.3 4.0 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 5.0 3.2 3.7 1.7 3.3 S Other service activities 1.5 3.3 8.2 3.0 5.1 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 3.8 2.2 2.9 2.9 7.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.6 3.9 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.6 2.4 1.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 USD/EUR 1.256 1.371 1.471 1.374 1.449 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.372 1.362 1.390 1.423 1.468 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 41 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0 0 0.7 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2 4.2 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 42 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 1 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 6.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 10.0 13.3 11.7 12.9 13.9 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 5.7 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.9 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 1.4 6.7 8.2 8.0 11.7 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.0 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.9 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 -1.9 0.4 2.5 1.9 2.8 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 1.9 1.0 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.1 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 7.6 7.9 9.6 8.6 9.2 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.4 Core inflation (trim mean*) 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 Share of trimmed products 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.1 2.6 4.6 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 5.9 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.5 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 3.9 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 2.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.7 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 -3.6 2.2 8.4 7.9 12.4 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 -6.6 2.1 10.3 9.8 14.0 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 -5.7 14.3 6.5 4.8 2.8 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.1 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 -2.3 3.9 7.1 6.6 9.3 Source of data: SORS, calculat monthly basis, hence some m to those published previously ons and estimates IMA inor revisions of histor The electricity market formation of pric D. Note: *In line with methodo cal data are possible. 1 the stru was liberalized on 1 July 2007. es for utility services is no long ogy, the measure of core inflat cture of groups varies, data pu Data from July 2007 onwards a er under government control. on ("Tr Wished re not c mm mean") is optimised on are not directly comparable omparable. Since July 2009, Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 43 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 9.6 10.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 44 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 10 1 11 1 12 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -771 -1.646 -2.287 -538 -692 -425 -486 -642 -733 -206 186 32 -160 -197 -335 -178 Goods1 -1.151 -1.666 -2.650 -401 -664 -489 -668 -751 -743 -128 6 -166 -180 -191 -293 -188 Exports 17.028 19.798 20.048 4.927 5.062 5.084 5.349 5.038 4.577 3.945 4.080 3.971 1.855 1.781 1.426 1.618 Imports 18.179 21.464 22.698 5.328 5.726 5.573 6.017 5.789 5.320 4.073 4.075 4.137 2.035 1.973 1.719 1.806 Services 993 1.047 1.609 306 167 334 475 487 314 263 315 395 67 46 53 109 Exports 3.572 4.145 5.040 1.259 1.018 1.053 1.299 1.480 1.209 927 1.052 1.273 371 297 350 339 Imports 2.580 3.098 3.431 953 851 719 824 993 895 664 737 878 303 251 297 230 Income -440 -789 -1.039 -376 -135 -150 -259 -394 -236 -212 -150 -153 -52 -35 -48 -41 Receipts 872 1.169 1.264 298 343 266 326 335 336 252 249 244 111 111 120 88 Expenditure 1.312 1.957 2.303 674 478 416 585 729 572 464 399 397 164 146 167 128 Current transfers -173 -239 -206 -67 -60 -120 -33 16 -69 -129 16 -45 5 -17 -48 -59 Receipts 785 941 783 230 278 144 190 229 220 119 247 152 107 89 83 32 Expenditure 958 1.180 989 296 338 264 223 213 289 248 231 197 101 106 130 91 Capital and financial account 1.092 1.920 2.395 384 982 435 741 632 588 -129 -25 7 171 311 500 86 Capital account -131 -52 -43 -32 -8 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 41 -4 7 5 -20 -9 Financial account 1.223 1.972 2.438 416 990 443 738 640 618 -125 -65 11 164 305 521 95 Direct investment -174 -210 381 9 56 114 -142 128 281 -135 -303 -92 103 -100 53 32 Domestic abroad -687 -1.317 -932 -438 -256 -125 -450 -236 -122 -129 -322 -72 8 -162 -102 -32 Foreign in Slovenia 513 1.106 1.313 447 312 239 308 364 402 -6 19 -20 96 62 155 65 Portfolio investment -1.442 -2.255 575 378 -806 305 -1.152 165 1.257 873 1.149 2.326 -360 -483 36 16 Financial derivatives -13 -15 46 -20 12 30 4 5 6 -23 12 18 4 4 4 10 Other investment 1.571 4.313 1.415 17 1.665 75 1.947 340 -947 -953 -969 -2.229 397 912 356 36 Assets -1.939 -4.741 -562 -1.365 -574 -978 -187 388 215 806 -268 -1.141 -290 -360 76 147 Commercial credits -442 -400 -143 29 136 -518 -170 -9 554 51 11 -48 -233 -17 386 -79 Loans -733 -1.895 -541 -441 -627 51 -442 158 -308 277 -73 -39 -131 -137 -359 175 Currency and deposits -743 -2.454 117 -942 -85 -502 385 258 -23 472 -208 -1.065 66 -207 56 37 Other assets -21 7 5 -12 1 -9 40 -19 -7 7 2 12 8 -1 -6 14 Liabilities 3.510 9.054 1.977 1.382 2.239 1.054 2.134 -48 -1.162 -1.759 -701 -1.088 687 1.273 279 -111 Commercial credits 479 499 -67 -89 266 179 309 -19 -537 -380 -88 26 163 97 6 -81 Loans 2.064 3.841 1.868 910 1.345 644 1.472 242 -490 -517 -1.320 -102 210 881 254 117 Deposits 998 4.727 190 567 613 253 346 -272 -137 -858 700 -983 328 299 -14 -134 Other liabilities -30 -13 -13 -6 16 -22 7 2 1 -5 6 -28 -14 -4 34 -13 International reserves2 1.281 140 21 32 64 -81 80 1 21 114 46 -13 20 -28 72 0 Statistical error -321 -273 -108 154 -290 -10 -255 10 146 336 -161 -38 -11 -113 -165 92 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1.680 1.936 2.241 466 505 523 576 598 544 443 464 410 181 166 159 147 Intermediate goods 9.368 10.436 10.760 2.559 2.597 2.752 2.893 2.730 2.385 1.984 2.006 2.040 959 928 710 891 Consumer goods 5.709 7.035 6.808 1.791 1.850 1.753 1.817 1.648 1.590 1.476 1.572 1.486 678 651 522 561 Import of investment qoods 2.565 3.031 3.441 755 882 773 928 862 878 581 547 486 305 302 276 248 Intermediate goods 11.319 12.875 13.735 3.163 3.348 3.417 3.668 3.543 3.107 2.366 2.330 2.450 1.163 1.186 998 1.116 Consumer goods 4.456 5.601 5.870 1.412 1.506 1.459 1.520 1.475 1.416 1.194 1.251 1.254 575 490 441 466 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 45 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9| 10 -117 -130 -120 -201 -165 -347 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -37 -112 -58 22 66 98 13 -48 66 3 -134 -166 -160 -285 -223 -263 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -32 -31 -66 -62 11 56 -39 -137 10 2 1.710 1.757 1.866 1.716 1.767 1.809 1.339 1.891 1.841 1.532 1.204 1.218 1.297 1.430 1.308 1.339 1.433 1.408 1.070 1.494 1.503 1.844 1.923 2.026 2.002 1.990 2.071 1.637 2.080 2.107 1.711 1.501 1.249 1.328 1.496 1.370 1.328 1.377 1.446 1.206 1.484 1.501 106 118 152 170 152 124 166 196 149 107 58 106 63 94 105 105 104 99 163 133 100 335 378 422 433 444 516 487 478 446 372 392 310 281 336 347 345 360 438 447 388 374 229 260 270 263 291 391 320 281 296 264 334 204 218 242 242 240 256 339 285 255 274 -41 -69 -82 -70 -107 -214 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -78 -71 -63 -56 -52 -43 -50 -49 -54 -49 88 90 111 106 108 111 115 109 108 105 124 88 83 81 80 83 86 82 81 81 84 129 159 193 177 215 325 165 239 191 187 195 166 154 145 136 135 128 132 129 136 133 -48 -13 -31 -15 12 5 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -34 -73 -23 34 2 -20 3 -25 -23 -50 54 58 38 58 93 64 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 49 112 75 60 70 45 38 54 102 71 69 73 81 59 82 73 90 89 110 63 113 72 78 72 80 66 70 61 103 228 121 192 346 202 411 187 34 -130 279 439 92 -114 -107 26 92 -143 53 -107 60 91 0 2 5 -3 1 -6 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 45 -3 -2 1 0 228 120 188 349 201 417 188 35 -134 239 512 99 -112 -112 28 94 -187 56 -104 60 91 -13 95 -49 -9 -84 125 51 -48 -40 85 235 56 -61 -129 -42 -175 -86 -56 53 -89 -34 -25 -68 -160 -128 -163 -116 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -24 -51 -53 -96 -207 -20 7 -12 -66 -50 11 163 111 119 78 241 85 38 41 94 267 80 -10 -76 53 32 -66 -63 65 -23 16 692 -403 -452 -457 -243 134 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -96 1.004 263 -118 861 -216 1.681 -15 10 10 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 0 8 10 0 -497 536 602 797 548 229 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -352 -683 83 -933 -65 29 -697 22 -1.553 132 -960 -165 384 194 -766 112 -79 355 -435 19 632 124 595 88 -209 -813 755 -679 672 -1.134 259 -226 -212 -25 -98 -47 16 147 -172 -43 132 465 146 -45 -50 26 46 -60 -3 76 -121 -41 -44 -80 17 -205 -254 255 -377 280 -286 73 -95 34 218 25 35 -49 -59 -57 59 -41 -12 -684 145 346 506 -468 -164 153 269 -115 -191 283 -67 412 127 -270 -808 870 -618 531 -978 309 -5 -18 46 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 463 702 218 603 1.314 117 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -476 -1.278 -5 -723 749 -726 -19 -650 -419 -127 105 155 93 220 -4 38 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -377 -5 2 -35 -32 -20 7 -92 111 84 217 311 -173 512 1.133 112 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1.339 14 -69 -47 -177 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1.303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 -111 9 -72 -145 -37 -64 -30 104 366 -115 -105 -55 226 165 -48 -158 45 -66 154 -126 -94 178 199 193 192 191 203 152 243 201 185 158 128 152 163 172 143 149 149 110 151 n.p. 934 927 1015 925 953 976 756 998 981 816 589 647 640 697 648 655 703 725 557 757 n.p. 580 612 635 578 603 607 411 629 638 511 441 429 491 556 479 525 567 519 391 576 n.p. 252 274 316 312 300 294 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 248 190 183 174 166 137 183 n.p. 1.145 1.156 1.225 1.222 1.221 1.291 1.029 1.222 1.309 1.017 782 745 801 819 761 758 811 860 709 881 n.p. 474 519 518 503 500 520 404 551 544 441 431 353 388 452 437 409 406 434 379 441 n.p. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 46 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2.367 2.162 2.408 2.342 2.345 2.348 2.374 2.367 2.412 2.397 2.392 2.123 2.162 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 212 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6.818 7.827 6.157 6.323 6.468 6.607 6.830 6.818 6.918 7.009 7.133 7.235 7.318 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18.105 21.149 16.274 16.720 17.004 17.269 17.748 18.105 18.570 18.754 18.938 19.351 19.616 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2.305 2.815 2.034 2.083 2.205 2.367 2.396 2.305 2.390 2.411 2.494 2.558 2.568 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2.401 3.666 2.218 2.439 2.448 2.460 2.580 2.401 2.455 2.432 2.444 2.624 2.375 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26.555 32.113 24.146 24.892 25.310 25.864 26.596 26.555 27.164 27.406 27.768 28.503 28.871 In foreign currency 3149.0 1.990 2.370 1.560 1.638 1.699 1.789 1.900 1.990 2.117 2.192 2.280 2.276 2.259 Securities, total 1286.8 3.570 3.346 3.492 3.488 3.573 3.511 3.544 3.570 3.586 3.529 3.477 3.239 3.038 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2.903.4 20.029 23.129 18.880 19.299 19.386 19.579 19.558 20.029 20.088 20.674 20.779 20.774 20.613 Overnight 1.178.6 6.887 6.605 7.047 6.881 6.907 6.695 6.573 6.887 6.924 6.557 6.787 6.711 6.841 With agreed maturity -short-term 1.251.2 8.913 10.971 7.867 8.331 8.247 8.689 8.723 8.913 8.899 9.862 9.745 9.734 9.292 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2.857 4.157 2.728 2.790 2.874 2.820 2.817 2.857 2.845 2.803 2.814 2.926 3.046 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1.372 1.396 1.238 1.297 1.358 1.375 1.445 1.372 1.420 1.452 1.433 1.403 1.434 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1.454.5 559 490 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 Overnight 552.7 218 215 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - 5.63 6.32 5.47 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 2.78 3.85 3.85 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 47 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 2.052 2.030 2.069 2.046 2.058 2.176 2.162 2.704 2.867 3.134 3.288 3.542 3.472 3.456 3.427 3.610 3.625 3.581 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 7.409 7.521 7.603 7.705 7.857 7.785 7.827 7.831 7.852 7.868 7.910 7.946 7.951 8.055 8.135 8.231 8.295 8.345 20.064 20.404 20.619 20.872 21.134 21.092 21.149 21.346 21.429 21.469 21.509 21.516 21.517 21.557 21.671 21.704 21.688 21.645 2.736 2.726 2.729 2.798 2.815 2.845 2.815 2.815 2.814 2.851 2.869 2.838 2.835 2.838 2.868 2.846 2.846 2.772 2.386 2.403 2.400 2.737 2.965 2.963 3.666 3.887 3.826 3.786 3.829 4.008 4.365 4.382 4.334 4.723 4.563 4.589 29.380 29.805 30.108 30.888 31.444 31.594 32.113 32.388 32.663 32.648 32.790 33.140 33.353 33.601 33.628 34.045 33.922 33.962 2.263 2.228 2.271 2.344 2.512 2.371 2.370 2.372 2.315 2.190 2.172 2.122 2.059 2.017 2.003 1.969 1.939 1.919 3.137 3.188 3.184 3.104 3.059 3.077 3.346 4.046 4.040 4.504 4.686 4.843 4.979 4.925 5.067 5.380 5.460 5.386 21.144 21.341 21.465 21.992 22.177 22.385 23.129 23.563 24.487 24.334 25.649 26.020 26.576 26.206 25.956 26.950 26.860 26.930 7.071 6.744 6.703 6.918 6.666 6.577 6.605 6.415 6.421 6.609 6.610 6.876 7.163 6.862 7.011 7.079 6.940 7.028 9.439 9.936 9.929 10.038 10.530 10.659 10.971 11.246 12.053 11.705 12.951 13.053 12.015 10.560 10.067 10.720 10.487 10.283 3.170 3.241 3.378 3.519 3.555 3.727 4.157 4.542 4.729 4.827 4.876 4.868 6.182 7.600 7.712 7.952 8.190 8.315 1.464 1.420 1.455 1.517 1.426 1.422 1.396 1.360 1.284 1.193 1.212 1.223 1.216 1.184 1.166 1.199 1.243 1.304 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 454 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 122 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 28 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 - 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 - 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 - 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 - 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.75 3.25 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 - 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 - Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 48 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 11 1 12 1 1 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 12.958.7 14.006.1 15.339.2 3.429.1 4.059.8 3.369.3 4.005.7 3.857.5 4.106.6 3.283.0 3.542.8 3.558.8 1.323.1 1.413.0 1.134.1 1.100.1 Current revenues 12.395.3 13.467.2 14.792.3 3.332.1 3.805.1 3.274.0 3.881.0 3.733.8 3.903.4 3.204.0 3.322.8 3.470.4 1.236.3 1.309.4 1.104.1 1.073.5 Tax revenues 1 1.762.0 12.757.9 13.937.4 3.123.6 3.606.0 3.110.0 3.702.0 3.472.0 3.653.3 3.058.9 3.164.5 3.279.0 1.168.1 1.243.8 1.057.4 1.015.6 Taxes on income and profit 2.735.3 2.917.7 3.442.2 646.3 769.4 694.4 1.106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 235.7 300.3 223.0 221.2 Social security contributions 4.231.2 4.598.0 5.095.0 1.139.1 1.251.8 1.203.1 1.254.2 1.272.9 1.364.8 1.285.3 1.280.9 1.260.6 397.3 469.4 394.7 400.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 472.9 418.1 258.0 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 36.5 50.3 20.0 19.5 Taxes on property 189.1 206.4 214.9 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 29.3 13.3 8.7 10.5 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4.077.3 4.498.6 4.805.3 1.135.5 1.372.5 1.099.4 1.181.7 1.227.8 1.296.4 1.015.4 1.177.5 1.184.2 459.9 398.0 404.6 354.7 Taxes on international trade & transactions 50.7 117.1 120.1 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 9.1 12.2 6.3 9.3 Other taxes 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Non-tax revenues 633.3 709.2 854.9 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.3 191.4 68.1 65.7 46.6 58.0 Capital revenues 166.8 136.6 117.3 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 15.7 31.9 11.1 9.6 Grants 5.4 11.9 10.4 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.7 Transferred revenues 42.8 42.5 53.9 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 39.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 348.4 348.0 365.4 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 30.6 69.0 17.7 16.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13.208.7 13.915.5 15.441.7 3.240.0 4.081.8 3.388.6 3.792.9 3.628.8 4.631.4 3.877.1 4.064.6 3.767.1 1.249.6 1.691.7 1.030.3 1.140.4 Current expenditures 5.689.0 5.950.9 6.557.5 1.362.2 1.658.2 1.575.9 1.581.7 1.513.7 1.886.2 1.768.8 1.682.7 1.578.1 500.7 673.7 451.0 512.3 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3.180.3 3.276.9 3.578.9 814.4 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 963.3 1.004.1 953.9 273.5 285.3 268.6 266.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2.073.2 2.212.2 2.527.5 518.0 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 548.8 619.4 605.4 212.1 321.9 155.0 168.6 Interest payments 376.4 357.0 335.2 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 4.9 5.2 22.9 74.2 Reserves 59.0 104.8 116.0 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 10.3 61.3 4.4 3.5 Current transfers 5.925.8 6.143.9 6.742.2 1.456.0 1.565.1 1.489.9 1.856.8 1.567.3 1.828.2 1.748.2 1.936.1 1.736.9 547.1 544.3 460.5 517.3 Subsidies 402.9 423.4 476.5 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 25.6 49.2 5.0 35.0 Current transfers to individuals and households 4.871.5 5.093.3 5.619.2 1.211.1 1.304.0 1.303.5 1.448.9 1.344.8 1.522.0 1.436.2 1.614.8 1.475.9 470.5 428.5 418.1 441.1 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 624.1 595.3 598.3 145.3 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 48.9 62.3 35.7 37.7 Current transfers abroad 27.4 32.0 48.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 2.2 4.3 1.8 3.5 Capital expenditures 901.4 1.130.5 1.255.5 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.1 297.3 121.0 329.0 53.7 44.8 Capital transfers 404.6 334.3 458.6 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.1 49.4 96.3 9.0 10.7 Payments to the EU budget 287.9 355.9 427.9 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 31.3 48.4 56.1 55.3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -250.0 90.6 -102.5 - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 49 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1.135.2 1.463.1 1.259.9 1.282.8 1.342.2 1.226.0 1.289.3 1.310.0 1.305.0 1.491.6 1.123.2 1.067.7 1.092.1 1.199.9 1.102.2 1.240.7 1.285.0 1.182.6 1.091.3 1.241.3 1.096.4 1.435.7 1.228.7 1.216.6 1.306.1 1.164.7 1.263.0 1.295.2 1.184.7 1.423.5 1.112.4 1.029.2 1.062.4 1.124.2 1.047.1 1.151.5 1.240.6 1.157.6 1.072.3 1.218.4 1.037.0 1.374.1 1.175.5 1.152.4 1.253.4 1.066.2 1.152.4 1.234.1 1.126.5 1.292.7 1.068.5 980.1 1.010.3 1.076.2 996.5 1.091.7 1.194.2 1.087.7 997.1 1.164.1 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.9 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.2 54.3 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 22.4 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 1.218.0 1.228.6 1.363.5 1.200.8 1.139.6 1.179.6 1.309.7 1.259.5 1.452.7 1.919.2 1.119.8 1.408.5 1.348.8 1.255.5 1.478.1 1.330.9 1.249.6 1.264.6 1.252.9 1.402.4 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 285.1 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 304.8 332.5 326.0 312.2 373.5 318.4 325.1 317.6 311.2 324.9 199.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 172.5 179.8 196.6 213.2 202.7 203.6 207.6 213.7 184.1 206.6 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 512.1 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 84.1 87.4 87.4 101.9 108.1 119.2 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.8 28.1 35.1 82.4 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 50 Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2008 Acronyms Acronyms AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC -European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, LFS - Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, MFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs, MI - Ministry of the Interior, MPA - Ministry of Public Administration, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment , SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E- Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F-Construction, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities., M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - reducing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.