.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > fN O Ü) o u 0) o fO .Q cu Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 2 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Jure Povšnar (Production, consumption and international electricity trade in 2010). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................22 Boxes Box 1: Economic growth in Slovenia in the last quarter and 2010 as a whole.......................................................9 Box 2: Labour force survey - the last quarter and the entire 2010.........................................................................14 Box 3: Regular annual adjustment of CPI weights.....................................................................................................17 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................25 Production, consumption and international electricity trade in 2010..................................................................27 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The euro area economy continued to recover in the last quarter of 2010; inflationary pressures keep strengthening at the beginning of this year due to commodity price rises. BDP in the euro area increased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in the last quarter of 2010 and 1.7% in the year as a whole. The values of sentiment indicators at the beginning of the year indicate a continuation of the expected slow recovery of the European economy. With surging oil prices and further strong growth in non-energy commodity prices, inflationary pressures have started to mount. Certain changes in central bank communication indicate that key interest rates may be raised in the months to come. Slovenia's GDP expanded by 1.2% in real terms in 2010. Last year, Slovenia thus recorded a slower recovery than the euro area as a whole (1.7%) and after the 8.1% real decline in 2009, GDP still lags significantly behind the level of2008. The recovery was mainly underpinned by exports, which, despite the strengthening, did not grow as fast as demand on foreign markets, according to our estimations. Export growth slowed gradually in the second half of the year, in line with slower growth in Slovenia's main trading partners. In the last quarter, the contribution of net exports was already negative (-0.2 p.p.), with stronger growth in imports at the end of the year, while it was still positive in the year as a whole, totalling 0.8 p.p. Domestic consumption, which was up 0.4% last year, was again crucially impacted by change in inventories (contributing 1.6 p.p.). Final sales of domestic products (GDP less change in inventories) thus declined for the second year in a row in 2010. Private consumption also rose last year (0.5%), according to the revised data for previous quarters. Not being final, the current balance of payment data for 2009 cannot yet be used as a real basis for the calculation, which is why we estimate that positive growth rates of private consumption in 2010 do not necessarily show an actual strengthening of Slovenian household consumption. This is also indicated by the values of short-term indicators of household consumption in 2010. Broken down by activities, the worst results were recorded for the construction sector, which brought about another decline in gross fixed capital formation (-6.7%). Investment in machinery and equipment was up somewhat compared with 2009, largely due to a favourable impact of growth in foreign demand and higher capacity utilisation. New orders from the foreign market also impacted real growth in value added in manufacturing (8.0%). Value added otherwise also increased in public services and most market services, except accommodation and food service activities where it stagnated and in financial intermediation where it declined. The decline in the number of formally employed persons continued to deepen in December and the number of registered unemployed persons increased further at the beginning of 2011. December's decline in formal employment, otherwise a regular seasonal phenomenon due to the expiration of fixed-term employment contracts before the Christmas holidays, was last year compounded by the expected regulatory changes in the area of the labour market so that the decline was larger than what is typical for that time of the year (-1.1%, seasonally adjusted). The number of registered unemployed persons rose further (1.2%, seasonally adjusted), totalling 115,132 at the end of January. The increase in the monthly inflow was mainly underpinned by a higher number of persons who had lost work, again particularly due to the expiration of fixed-term contracts and business reasons or compulsory settlements. After strong November's growth, which mainly resulted from 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses, the average gross wage per employee declined in all activities in December. December's decline was related to the dynamics of extraordinary year-end payments, which were lower, on average, than in November. In 2010, the average gross wage in the private sector recorded stronger growth (5.2%), largely as a result of the increase in the minimum wage (contributing around 3.0 p.p.); 0.5 p.p. of growth can be attributed to the impact of changes in employment structure due to dismissals of low-wage employees. In the public sector, the average gross wage remained at the 2009 level last year due to the government's restrictive wage policy. Prices did not change, on average, in February, and y-o-y inflation dropped from 1.9% to 1.4%. Price movements were marked by the usual seasonal factors and the government mitigated higher oil prices on world markets by lowering excise duties so that they had a negligible impact on domestic inflation. Food prices continued to grow, being as much as 3.5% higher y-o-y, in total, which is the highest increase in this period in the last eight years. The calculation of February's inflation was significantly impacted by the one-off change in the obligatory subscription for national television, which lowered inflation by as much as 0.5 p.p,, according to SORS calculations. Bank financing of Slovenian enterprises and NFIs shrank substantially last year and banks continued to net repay their external liabilities. After enterprises and NFIs still borrowed from domestic and foreign banks in 2009, they net repaid nearly EUR 400 m in domestic and foreign loans in 2010. Banks also repaid foreign deposits and loans last year, in a net amount of EUR 1.5 bn, which is half less than in 2009. The exposure of Slovenia's banking system to the rest of the world remains roughly at one third of banks' total assets. A significant portion of liabilities will become due in the next two years, which indicates further severe liquidity pressure on the Slovenian banking system. The lending activity of domestic banks strengthened slightly in January relative to December, mainly due to corporate borrowing, but was nevertheless nearly one fifth lower than in the same month of 2010. Government deposits strengthened noticeably in January due to the issuance of government bonds. Net inflows of household deposits were also relatively high. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment The euro area economy continued to recover in the last quarter of 2010. According to the Eurostat flash estimate, GDP in the euro area increased by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) in the last quarter of 2010, being 2.0% higher y-o-y. Slovenia's main trading partners recorded slower growth than in the third quarter. In the United Kingdom GDP even declined. As expected, the economic activity slowed down at the end of the year. Economic growth was even slightly lower than the autumn forecasts by international institutions, partly as a result of the bad weather in December. The continuation of the weak recovery in the last quarter was already suggested by short-term indicators of economic activity. Industrial production in manufacturing otherwise increased more than in the third quarter (1.9%, seasonally adjusted), while construction activity continued to drop (-2.2%, seasonally adjusted), hitting a ten-year low in December. Turnover in retail trade remained at approximately the same level as in the previous quarter (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted). Amid the weak economic recovery, the unemployment rate remains high, 10.0% in the euro area in December (EU 9.6%). Various confidence indicators - some of which even reached record highs (the Ifo business climate index for Germany) - show that the European economy will continue to recover at the beginning of this year. Figure 1: Quarterly GDP growth in selected trading partners 2.4 2.1 EMU Germany France Italy Source: Eurostat. Austria U. Kingdom Interest rates of central banks remain unchanged, as expected, but interbank interest rates have started to rise slightly in recent months. The value of the three-month EURIBOR increased by 7 basis points in February (42 basis points y-o-y), totalling 1.09%. The value of the three-month LIBOR also rose somewhat (to 0.31%). Key interest rates of main central banks were left unchanged in February (ECB 1.0%, Fed 0.0%, BoE 0.5%), but certain changes in communication indicate that they may be raised in the following months, largely as a result of growing inflationary pressures. The euro appreciated relative to the main world currencies in February, with the exception of the British pound sterling. Relative to the US dollar, the average exchange rate of the euro increased by 2.2% in February, to USD 1.3649 to EUR 1, relative to the Japanese yen by 2.2%, to JPY 112.77 to EUR 1 and relative to the Swiss franc by 1.5%, to CHF 1.2974 to EUR 1, while it remained at approximately the same level as in January relative to the British pound sterling (GBP 0.8464 to EUR 1). Prices of energy and non-energy commodities were still rising early this year and the price of Brent crude oil topped USD 100 a barrel in February for the first time since September 2008. The average price of Brent crude rose by 7.5% to USD 103.72 a barrel (in EUR, by 5.6% to EUR 76.60 a barrel). Prices are up 40.6% y-o-y in both dollars and euros. The gap between Brent and WTI crude oil prices surged to approximately USD 15 a barrel in February, which is, according to analysts, largely attributable to instability in northern Africa and in the Middle East having a greater impact on Brent than WTI prices. Besides, the US also has record levels of crude oil reserves. Prices of non-energy commodities and food rose further in January, according to the IMF, particularly metal prices in dollars, which were up by as much as 25.9% compared with December (57.6% y-o-y), while food prices in US dollars increased by 3.2% (32.1% y-o-y). Figure 2: Oil price and the USD/EUR exchange rate - Price In USD (left axis) -Price In EUR (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 ^ R 1.0 ^^ tD 0.8 SU 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic activity in Slovenia Growth in merchandise exports slowed in the last quarter of 2010, while growth in imports picked up slightly.' After increasing since the second quarter of 2009, growth in merchandise exports eased in the last quarter of 2010, as expected, consistent with the slowdown of economic activity in Slovenia's main trading partners (1.0%, seasonally adjusted). Y-o-y growth eased as well (from 17.6% to 14.3%), as a result of weaker growth in exports to both EU and non-EU countries. Exports rose by 13.7% in nominal terms in 2010, regaining the pre-crisis levels at a slower pace than in most other EU countries, despite strong growth. Merchandise imports have been growing since the third quarter of 2009. They rose by 3.3% in the last quarter of 2010 (seasonally adjusted) and 17.4% y-o-y. In 2010, merchandise imports rose by a nominal 14.6%, largely under the impact of higher prices of oil and other primary commodities. As import prices recorded much higher growth (6.5%) than export prices (3.1%), the terms of merchandise trade2 deteriorated significantly last year (-3.2%). Figure 3: Merchandise trade 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Merchandise exports Merchandise imports O O Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Exports of services increased while imports declined in the last quarter of 2010. According to seasonally adjusted data, services exports increased by 5.6% in the last quarter as a whole, after strong December's growth. The greatest contributions to y-o-y nominal growth (3.3%) came from exports of road transport and travel services, with exports of construction services continuing to decline. Exports of services grew by 1.2% in nominal terms in 2010. After December's decline, imports of services fell once again in the last quarter as a whole (-0.5%, seasonally adjusted). Their y-o-y growth (5.2%) mainly came from 1 According to the external trade statistics. 2 Based on the index of export producer prices on the foreign market and the index of import prices used as a source of data in the national accounts statistics. miscellaneous business, professional and technical and communication services and road transport services. The value of services related to construction (such as construction and assembly services and investment works carried out by foreign workers in Slovenia) is also falling on the side of imports. In 2010, imports of services recorded 3.5% nominal growth. Figure 4: Trade in services 1,400 1,300 1,200 li^ 1,100 1,000 ^^ 900 Exports of services Imports of services O O Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table ': Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2009/ 2008 XII 10/ XI 10 XII 10/XII 09 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 Exports1 -18.4 -7.8 15.4 11.0 -goods -19.4 -13.1 18.3 13.6 -services -14.7 19.2 6.0 1.2 Imports1 -23.6 -6.2 15.1 12.8 -goods -25.7 -10.0 17.3 14.6 -services -10.2 20.5 4.7 3.5 Industrial production -17.4 4.62 10.93 6.73 -manufacturing -18.7 4.22 10.83 7.13 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 5.32 -11.43 -16.93 Real turnover in retail trade -10.5 -1.92 -0.93 -0.33 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants -7.8 -0.92 3.23 2.73 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Production volume in manufacturing also increased in the last quarter of 2010. Following high December's growth, production volume increased 1.7% in the final quarter as a whole (seasonally adjusted) and 8.1% y-o-y (working-day adjusted). Medium-low-technology industries once again boasted the greatest increase relative to the previous quarter, according to seasonally adjusted data. High-technology industries saw lower growth, after the strong increase in the second quarter. Production volume also Box 1: Economic growth in Slovenia in the last quarter and 2010 as a whole Slovenia's GDP rose by 1.2% in real terms in 2010. As in the previous two quarters, GDP also increased in the last quarter of the year (0.6%, seasonally adjusted) and was up 2.1% in real terms from the same period of 2009. Last year, Slovenia thus recorded a slower recovery than the euro area as a whole (1.8%) and after an 8.1% real decline in 2009, its GDP still lags significantly behind the level of 2008. The recovery was mainly attributable to increasing exports, which, despite the strengthening, did not grow as fast as demand on foreign markets, according to our estimations. Y-o-y export growth slowed gradually in the third and fourth quarters of the year, in line with the moderation in Slovenia's main trading partners. Exports increased 6.6% y-o-y in the last quarter, being up 7.8% in the year as a whole. In the last quarter, the contribution of net exports was already negative (-0.2 p.p.), with stronger growth in imports at the end of the year, while it was still positive in the year as a whole, 0.8 p.p. Domestic consumption, which was up 0.4% last year, was again crucially impacted by change in inventories (contributing 1.6 p.p.). Last year, final sales of domestic products (GDP less change in inventories) thus declined for the second year in a row. According to the revised data for previous quarters, private consumption also rose last year (0.5%). Not being final, the current balance of payment figures for 2009 cannot yet be used as a real basis for the calculation. Therefore we estimate that positive growth rates of private consumption in 2010 do not necessarily indicate an actual strengthening of Slovenian household consumption. This is also shown by labour market data on the movements of employment and wages, the movement of turnover in distributive trades and other indicators of last year's household consumption. Gross fixed capital formation declined once again last year (-6.7%), but investment in machinery and equipment was up somewhat compared with 2009, largely due to a favourable impact of growth in foreign demand and higher capacity utilisation. Government consumption recorded 0.8% growth last year. Value added increased last year, 1.8% in the last quarter and 1.6% in 2010 as a whole. Broken down by activities, the worst results were again recorded in the construction sector. In the final quarter of last year, value added increased in practically all sectors y-o-y, with the exception of financial intermediation and construction, in particular. The construction sector also recorded a significant decline in the year as a whole and value added fell by another 14.4% last year, following the 15.5% drop in 2009. On the other hand, value added in manufacturing increased by 8.0%, consistent with last year's pick-up in foreign demand. Value added also rose in the group of public services except other community, social and personal services, the majority of which are predominantly market-oriented. Among market services, last year saw higher value added in transport, storage and communications (5.7%), real estate, renting and business activities (1.9%) and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles (1.6%), while value added remained at a similar level as in 2009 in accommodation and food service activities (-0.1%) and dropped by 3.0% in financial intermediation. Figure 5: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners -Germany ---------France ---Italy Figure 6: Structure of Slovenia's GDP growth 100 98 E? 97 96 95 94 ^^ 93 c is 92 00 91 90 ■ Austria • Croatia - Slovenia ■ Private consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation ■ Exports of goods and servic. -GDP real growth (right axis) Government consumption i^■K■K■^ Chang. in inventories and val. Imports of goods and servic. 5 0 -5 c o -10 -15 O -25 -30 a a a a a Source: Eurostat. -10 -12 ^ Source: Eurostat.^ rose in low-technology industries. In 2010, production volume in manufacturing increased by 6.8% in Slovenia and 7.2% in the EU-27 (both working-day adjusted). In the EU, it lags less behind the 2008 level (8.6%) than in Slovenia (12.7%). The lag behind the 2008 production level has remained greatest in low-technology industries but these industries began to recover gradually last year. Slovenia's manufacturing industries have picked up at a slower pace than those in the EU-27, with the textile and furniture Figure 7: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity and turnover ■ 2010/2009 -Q4 10/Q4 09 10 8 High-and mediumhigh -technology-intensive industries Medium-low-technology-intensive industries Production volume Turnover Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. industries lagging behind the 2008 levels the most. High-technology and medium-low-technology industries have been recovering since the latter half of 2009. In the last quarter of 2010, the 2008 levels were already exceeded in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products, in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment and particularly in the manufacture of transport equipment, which is recovering faster than in the EU-27. At the end of the year, y-o-y growth in the manufacture of transport equipment strengthened more than expected (from 3.6% in Q3 to 12.3%), according to our estimations, largely due to German demand (y-o-y increase in road vehicle exports in October and particularly November). Table 2: Employment in the manufacturing sector Figure 8: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing according to technology intensity 100 90 75 12009 12010 1Q4 2010 High-and medium-high -technology-intensive industries Medium-low-technology-intensive industries Low-technology-intensive industries Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The y-o-y decline in the number of employed persons in manufacturing continued to slow in the last quarter of 2010, being again largest in low-technology industries. Employment dropped by 4,918 persons y-o-y in the last quarter, by 3,368 in low-technology industries. Besides most low-technology industries (except the food and leather industries), in the last quarter of 2010, high-technology manufacture of ICT equipment also recorded a larger y-o-y decline in employment (9.5% or 735 jobs) than the manufacturing sector as a whole, as did the manufacture of other machinery and equipment where production recovered the least last year in comparison with other high-technology industries. The number of Number, in '000 Difference, the same period of the previous year Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 10 2010 Food-processing ind. 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 -200 -446 Textile ind. 11.0 10.7 10.1 9.6 -1,552 -3,316 Leather ind. 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 295 -57 Wood-processing ind. 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 -428 -654 Paper ind., printing 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 -737 -860 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -23 -38 Chemical and pharmaceutical ind. 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.8 3 -126 Manufact. of rubber and plastic products 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 230 -20 Manuf. of other non-metallic mineral products 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.2 87 -449 Basic metals and metal products 37.5 37.4 37.5 37.5 -702 -2,123 Manuf. of ICT, el. equipment 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 -692 -992 Manuf. of other machinery and equipment 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.3 -878 -1,085 Transport equipment 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.4 125 -256 Manufact. of furniture and other manufacturing 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.7 -746 -894 Repair, installation of machinery and equipment 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 301 63 MANUFACTURING, total 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 -4,918 -11,253 95 6 85 4 2 80 0 employed persons in high-tech industries was down 1,443 y-o-y in total in the last quarter. It did not decline in the pharmaceutical and chemical industry nor in the manufacture of transport equipment, but was down slightly in medium-low-technology industries (by 107 persons), chiefly as a consequence of job loss in the metal industry. Figure 9: Employment in the manufacturing sector ■ Q1 10 «02 10 «03 10 «04 10 0 -1,000 -2,000 O o -3,000 CD C -4,000 C ro JZ -5,000 -6,000 -7,000 -8,000 -9,000 High-and medium-high-technology-intensive industries Medium-low-technology-intensive industries Low-technology-intensive industries Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity picked up strongly in December, but was nevertheless lower in the last quarter than in the previous few. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place rose by 5.3% compared with November, despite unfavourable weather conditions. December saw higher activity in all construction sectors, particularly residential construction (67.0).3 In the last quarter as a whole, construction activity dropped by 5.0%, a similar decline as in the previous two quarters. In 2010, activity otherwise declined the least in non-residential construction (-6.7%), which is related to the construction of a large sports complex at the beginning of the year. Residential construction, on the other hand, where activity halved in the last two years (-36.7% in 2010) picked up in the last quarter of 2010. Civil-engineering activity was relatively stable last year (dropping by 5.3% from the first to the last quarter) but was down 18.4% y-o-y mainly due to a lower volume of motorway construction. The decline in the total floor area planned by issued building permits eased towards the end of last year. Last year, the total floor area of buildings planned by issued building permits declined for the third year in a row (6.4% in 2010 alone; of which the floor area for residential buildings 7.3% and non-residential buildings 5.2%). The decline in the total floor area otherwise moderated last year (according 3 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, by our estimates. Figure 10: Value of construction put in place -Construction -total -----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings -----Civil engineering works 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. to seasonally adjusted data, the total floor area increased in the second quarter, dropped in the third and rose once again in the last). The last quarter recorded further turnover growth in the sale of motor vehicles and retail trade, while turnover in wholesale trade continued to decline (seasonally adjusted). The last quarter saw further growth in the sale and repair of motor vehicles where turnover has been increasing since mid-2009. After a relatively strong increase in the first half of last year, nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined in the second half of the year. The increase in turnover in retail trade in the last quarter resulted from increased turnover in the sale of automotive fuels and in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products (the first increase in 2010), with turnover in the sale of non- Figure 11: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade ----Automotive fuel ----Wholesale, retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcyc. -Wholesale a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. food products maintaining approximately the same level for the last five quarters in a row. Compared with 2009, last quarter saw slower growth in turnover in wholesale and retail trades, while growth in turnover in the sale of motor vehicles remained high. Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles increased by 11.5% in total in 2010; in wholesale trade, turnover was up 0.8% compared with 2009, while turnover in retail trade stayed at roughly the same level as in 2009. In Slovenia, turnover in trade sectors had grown at a faster pace than in the EU average in 2000-2008, but it also witnessed a greater drop during the crisis. Unlike in the EU, it therefore still lagged significantly behind pre-crisis levels at the end of last year. In 2000-2008, turnover in distributive trade increased much more noticeably in Slovenia than in the EU. Its growth strengthened particularly after 2006. The strong growth of turnover in Slovenia was mainly attributable to the following factors: increased construction and furnishing of buildings (higher turnover in both wholesale trade and in the retail sale of household appliances, furniture and construction materials), increased volume of road freight transport services (higher turnover in the sale of automotive fuels) and stronger growth in the sale of new passenger cars, particularly in 2007 (increase in turnover in the sale of motor vehicles). The second half of 2008 already saw a contraction of turnover in all three trade sectors, which was much larger in Slovenia than in the EU and dragged into 2009. In 2010, turnover started to increase gradually in some trade sectors in the EU and Slovenia (in the sale of motor vehicles and fuels). In retail trade, turnover remained at the level of 2009. At the end of the year, the turnover in Slovenia was much lower relative to 2008 than the turnover in the EU. Figure '2: Movement of turnover in trade sectors, Slovenia and the EU 80 - Retail trade -EU-27 - Retail trade - Slovenia r' ---Wholesale trade -EU-27 \ ---Wholesale trade -Slovenia /t ■ ---------Sale of motor vehicles -EU-27 / / ---------Sale of motor vehicles -Slovenia // \\ A ' In the last quarter of 2010, accommodation and food service activities enjoyed further growth in nominal turnover, which had started at the beginning of the year. After the 2009 decline, which had been most pronounced in the first quarter, turnover in accommodation and food service activities increased in 2010 (0.6% in the last quarter), but still lagged behind the level of 2008. Turnover in accommodation and service activities was up 5.1% y-o-y in nominal terms in the last quarter and 2.7% in the year as a whole. Turnover growth in this sector was most likely also a result of a higher number of foreign tourists visiting in Slovenia. Among the countries that are most important for Slovenia's tourism, a strong increase was recorded for tourists from Serbia, who increased the number of overnight stays by more than half following the abolition of visas (accounting for more than 4% of all overnight stays in 2010). The number of overnight Figure 13: Overnight stays by foreign tourists ■ Overnight stays in 2010 ♦ 2010 / 2009 growth (right axis) 60 -j-LLiJcDID^^ČL Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 14: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Service act. 50 40 30 20 10 0 90 70 n 60 stays by Russian tourists also increased (26.9%, also a 4% share), as did the number of overnight stays by tourists from the United Kingdom (an almost 5% share). The number of overnight stays from the four countries which otherwise account for most foreign tourists in Slovenia (Italy, Austria, Germany and Croatia) declined. Seasonally adjusted, the sentiment indicator remained unchanged in February but increasedy-o-y. The confidence indicator in manufacturing remained unchanged while the values of the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in services declined marginally. The value of the confidence indicator in construction improved slightly while the confidence indicator in retail trade increased significantly this time, after the sizeable drop in January. Labour market The declinein the number of persons in formal employment deepened further in December. The number of formally employed persons dropped by 14,431 persons compared with November and 25,680 (-3.0%) y-o-y. December's decline in formal employment, which is otherwise a regular seasonal phenomenon due to the expiration of fixed-term employment contracts before the Christmas holidays, was last year compounded by the expected regulatory changes in the area of the labour market. Figure 15: Persons in employment in 2010 cu Q S Q -12 -15 Agriculture Industry Construction Market services Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Despite the seasonal impacts, formal employment declined more than what is typical for that time of the year and more than in previous months, which is indicated by seasonally adjusted data (-1.1%). December saw the greatest decline in the number of employed persons in manufacturing, construction and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles. The number of vacancies and persons hired increased in January compared with both December and January 2010. Table 3: Persons in employment by activity Number in '000 Change in number 2009 XII 09 XI 10 XII 10 2009/ 2008 XII 10/ XI 10 XII 10/ XII 09 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 37.7 33.3 33.1 -1,802 -201 -4,586 -4,437 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 -0,269 -56 -134 -308 C Manufacturing 199.8 190.6 187.9 184.1 -22,539 -3,819 -6,541 -11,253 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.8 0,226 -166 -180 54 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.0 0,200 -165 8 138 F Constrution 86.8 83.3 75.8 72.1 -1,169 -3,747 -11,168 -8,231 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 113.5 110.8 109.4 -1,161 -1,390 -4,049 -2,842 H Transportation and storage 49.8 48.8 47.7 46.9 -1,417 -830 -1,905 -1,874 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 33.8 32.6 32.5 210 -180 -1,345 -806 J Information and communication 22.5 22.5 22.8 22.6 609 -256 110 59 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.2 24.4 24.2 236 -289 -5 -208 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 195 -91 -70 -34 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 45.6 47.8 47.0 1,960 -861 1,349 2,037 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 26.0 26.8 26.1 -444 -654 169 840 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.6 52.0 51.5 555 -556 -93 502 P Education 61.7 62.6 64.7 64.3 1,679 -404 1,716 1,833 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 52.1 53.8 53.3 1,087 -426 1,199 1,080 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.0 249 -170 -131 125 S Other service activities 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.4 474 -142 -24 185 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 35 -28 0 6 6 3 0 The registered unemployment rate increased by 0.7 p.p. in December, to 11.8%. The registered unemployment rate for men increased more (by 1.0 p.p.) than for women (by 0.5 p.p.). We estimate that the registered unemployment rate averaged 10.7% in 2010 as a whole, which is 1.6 p.p. more than in 2009 (9.1%). The number of registered unemployed persons also continued to increase at the beginning of 2011, totalling as much as 115,132 at the end of January, 5,111 persons (1.2%, seasonally adjusted) more than in December and 15,541 persons (15.6%) more than in January 2010. Altogether 13,200 persons registered as unemployed in January (23.9% more y-o-y), 11,807 of which due to job loss (37.4% more y-o-y). Among the unemployed persons looking for new jobs, the number of those who had lost work due to the expiration of fixed-term employment contracts increased the most (7,635), which is typical for January, and the number of those who had lost work for business reasons or compulsory settlements remains high (2,127). The outflow from the unemployment register (8,089 persons) dropped once again compared with the previous month. The number of deletions for reasons other than employment declined, while the number of persons who landed work (5,795) rose for seasonal reasons and remained higher than a year earlier. Figure 16: Inflow into unemployment due to job loss, by selected reasons 8,000 -----Expiry of temporary employment contracts ---Written statement - Bankruptcy 7,000 6,000 - Winding up of businesses - Business reasons, compulsory settlements ( -■ ................ After recording exceptional growth in November, the average gross wage per employee declined in all activities in December (by a nominal 6.1%), as expected, but was 3.1% highery-o-y. Y-o-y growth slowed slightly (3.3%, seasonally adjusted 0.5%) in the last quarter of the year. In 2010, the total gross wage rose by 3.9% in nominal terms and 2.1% in real terms, entirely on account of wage growth in the private sector. Box2: Labour force survey - the last quarter and the entire 2010 According to the labour force survey, the number of employed persons also declined in the last quarter of 2010, while the number of unemployed persons increased. The number of employed persons according to the labour force survey was 1.9% lower y-o-y in the last quarter of 2010. In 2010, the number of employed persons according to the labour force survey declined by 1.5%, on average, relative to 2009.1 As in 2009, the y-o-y drop in employment according to the labour market survey was smaller than in formal employment, which indicates an increase in the volume of informal work.2 In the last quarter of 2010, the number of unemployed persons according to the labour force survey increased by 20.9% compared with the same quarter of 2009. According to the labour force survey, 76,000 persons3 were unemployed, on average, in 2010, 22.8% more than in 2009. Consequently, the survey unemployment rate also rose in the last quarter of 2010, to 7.8%, which is up 1.4 p.p. y-o-y. At the annual level, the survey unemployment rate increased by 1.3 p.p. compared with 2009, averaging 7.2%.4 1 According to IMAD calculations based on the quarterly data by SORS. 2 In addition to employed and self-employed persons, the number of employed persons according to the labour force survey also includes informal employment such as occasional work, work by unpaid family workers and similar but it does not include temporarily employed foreigners. 3 According to IMAD calculations based on the quarterly data by SORS. 4 According to IMAD calculations based on the annual averages of the numbers of employed and unemployed persons according to the labour force survey computed from the quarterly data by SORS. Table 4: Labour market indicators in % 2009 XII 10/ XI 10 XII 10/ XII 09 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 Labour force 0.2 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 Persons in formal employment -2.4 -1.7 -3.0 -2.7 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.8 -1.9 -2.9 -2.6 Registered unemployed 36.6 6.0 13.8 16.4 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 -6.1 3.1 3.9 - private sector 1.8 -8.2 4.4 5.2 - public sector 6.5 -1.0 -0.7 0.0 2009 XII 09 XI 10 XII 10 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 9.1 10.3 11.1 11.8 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438,96 1,488,19 1,634,48 1,534,04 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338,77 1,397,09 1,588,83 1,458,93 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749,82 1,762,91 1,767,76 1,750,67 Figure 17: Breakdown of the gross wage per employee ■ Payments in arrears ■ Overtime payments ■ Wage without payments for overtime work & payments in arrears ♦ Growth in the average gross wage per employee, right axis 1,80^ I- 7 2009 2010 Private sector 2009 2010 Public sector Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. December's 8.2% decline of the gross wage in the private sector is related to the dynamics of extraordinary year-end payments, as the gross wage remained at the previous month's level according to seasonally adjusted data (0.1%). December's extraordinary payments4 amounted to EUR 20 m, which is totally comparable with the amount disbursed in December 2009; compared with November when extraordinary payments had amounted to EUR 84 m, much fewer employees received extraordinary payments in December (8.1%; in November, 17.8%) and the average amount of these payments was almost half lower.5 Y-o-y, this sector's gross wage recorded 4.4% growth in December and in the last quarter as a whole (being by far the highest in the industry:6 6.3%). It has been easing slowly ever since the second quarter of 2010 (5.8%), reaching 5.2% in the year 2010 as a whole. Last year's strengthening of wage growth in the private sector was significantly influenced by the increase in the minimum wage (around 3 p.p.); 0.5 p.p. of growth can be attributed to the impact of changes in employment structure resulting from the increased firing of low-wage employees, which had been even more pronounced in the previous year (0.9 p.p.). Unlike in 2009, payments for overtime work and payments in arrears also made a positive contribution to growth last year. In the public sector, the gross wage declined by 1.0% in December (0.3%, according to seasonally adjusted data) but remained at the 2009 level in the year as a whole. After increasing strongly in the previous two years, growth in this sector's gross wage ceased completely due to the Table 5: Wages by activities Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2009 XII 2010 2009/ 2008 XII 10/ XI 10 XII 10/ XII 09 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,198.03 1,351.13 -0.2 -6.9 9.3 5.8 B Mining and quarrying 1,831.20 2,205.06 0.9 -7.1 18.6 4.0 C Manufacturing 1,203.38 1,351.23 0.8 -8.5 6.8 9.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,020.95 2,393.45 3.8 -19.3 1.6 3.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,413.04 1,475.95 2.0 -19.2 1.5 2.2 F Constrution 1,160.16 1,253.24 1.0 -3.2 4.4 4.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,277.51 1,365.79 1.9 -5.2 2.9 3.7 H Transportation and storage 1,393.16 1,443.42 0.7 -12.0 2.7 2.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,032.97 1,108.45 1.6 -2.5 4.3 4.0 J Information and communication 2,038.65 2,196.66 1.4 -6.5 3.3 2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2,122.72 2,172.48 -0.7 -18.2 1.4 1.0 L Real estate activities 1,435.09 1,560.70 1.9 -8.0 -0.4 3.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,737.98 1,846.66 2.1 -4.7 0.8 1.6 N Administrative and support service activities 914.93 963.24 1.8 -5.5 3.1 4.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,788.30 1,780.66 5.9 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 P Education 1,719.27 1,725.45 3.6 -1.6 0.1 0.6 Q Human health and social work activities 1,752.78 1,749.09 12.0 -0.4 -1.2 -0.3 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,723.15 1,761.04 3.9 -1.6 -1.5 0.5 S Other service activities 1,340.92 1,461.89 1.3 -3.4 1.0 4.2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 4 Of which over 96% in the private sector. 5 In 2009, total extraordinary payments amounted to EUR 103.9 (in November and December combined) and in 2010, to EUR 104.7 m. 6 Particularly in manufacturing (6.8%), which is related to the increase in the minimum wage, the strengthening of the production volume in manufacturing and labour productivity, changes in the structure of employment and the low base effect. government's restrictive wage policy last year. Unlike in 2009, payments for overtime work and, to a lesser extent, payments in arrears (which include payments for increased workload) declined last year, on average. Wages in the public administration and health care therefore dropped, while wages in education and arts, entertainment and education increased somewhat. Figure 18: Seasonally adjusted movement of wages -Total -----Private sector -Public sector 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 E aj aj 1,300 is 1,200 1,100 -^ /1 ■ 1 i ^—i"— r -- 1 ; 1 ...........■»............■»............ : : : : ä i 1 1 1 1 ! ! i i a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Prices After the monthly decrease in January, consumer prices did not change, on average, in February but y-o-y inflation (1.4%) was somewhat lower than in January. Amid higher energy prices (mitigated by the government by lowering excise duties in February) and higher prices of food, the dynamics of most prices continued to be relatively moderate. Food prices increased by another 0.9%, by 3.5% in both months combined, which is the highest increase in this period in the last eight years. In February, the calculation of inflation was also significantly impacted by the one-off change in the obligatory subscription for national television, which declined to EUR 3.9 in February from January's EUR 12 due to the complications regarding its legal basis, which lowered inflation by 0.5 p.p., according to SORS calculations. In January, higher prices of commodities from the international environment already partly passed into higher retail prices of food in Slovenia. Energy prices also continued to rise. In January, food prices increased more than in January in the previous three years. The highest rises were recorded for prices of vegetables (9.9%), fruit (4.0%), milk, dairy products and eggs (2.8%). Prices of fish were the only food prices to decline. Food prices contributed 0.4 p.p. to price growth. According to our estimations, these rises are still mainly attributable to the spillover of higher Table 6: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - January 2011 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP -0,7 100,0 -0,7 -0,4 100,0 -0,4 Goods -1,0 58,5 -0,6 -0,6 65,9 -0,4 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0,4 11,9 0,0 0,8 15,3 0,1 Non-processed food 0,5 7,4 0,0 4,2 7,3 0,3 Non-energy industrial goods -3,4 28,9 -1,0 -4,0 29,0 -1,2 Durables -0,4 9,5 0,0 -0,3 10,3 0,0 Non-durables 0,2 8,3 0,0 0,0 8,7 0,0 Semi-durables -8,4 11,2 -0,9 -11,3 10,0 -1,1 Energy 3,0 10,3 0,3 2,4 14,3 0,3 Electricity for households 4,1 2,5 0,1 1,7 2,6 0,0 Natural gas 1,2 1,7 0,0 3,2 1,0 0,0 Liquid fuels for heating 4,3 1,0 0,0 5,0 1,6 0,1 Solid fuels 0,9 0,1 0,0 3,4 1,0 0,0 District heating 1,2 0,5 0,0 1,4 0,8 0,0 Fuels and lubricants 3,0 4,7 0,1 2,0 7,2 0,1 Services -0,3 41,4 -0,1 -0,2 34,1 -0,1 Services - dwellings 0,3 10,1 0,0 -0,2 2,9 0,0 Services - transport 0,0 6,5 0,0 0,0 5,3 0,0 Services - communications 0,2 3,2 0,0 -0,5 3,7 0,0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care -1,4 14,7 -0,2 -0,5 13,7 -0,1 Services - other services 0,6 7,0 0,0 0,4 8,5 0,0 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -1,3 82,3 -1,1 -1,4 78,4 -1,1 Figure 19: Measured and core inflation (HICP) ■ HICP -Slovenia HICP core inflation - Slovenia - HICP -Euro area HICP core inflation - Euro area 8B 8B 5; 5; Source: Eurostat. commodity prices from the international environment. Besides food prices, prices of various energy types also surged in Slovenia, consistent with oil price rises in global markets. Box 3: Regular annual adjustment of CPI weights SORS makes methodological changes in the consumer price index each January. Similar to previous years, SORS revised the list of monitored product and service prices, as well as the list of monitored points of sale. Based on the new calculations, SORS also revised the system of CPI weights, as it does every year. With this year's change in weights, the shares of energy and food increased somewhat compared with last year. Figure 20: Share in the CPI 20 15 .1= 10 Core inflation remains at a relatively low level and reflects weak economic recovery. The movement of main core inflation measures remains moderate, given that they have hovered between 0.0% and 1.5% y-o-y since the beginning of 2010. No strengthening of long-term inflationary pressures from economic activity has been observed in the last two months, which is also confirmed by the moderate movement of services prices, which have stagnated or even declined somewhat y-o-y in recent months. Amid relatively moderate dynamics of most prices of services, the y-o-y decline of these prices in recent months is largely attributable to two factors. Prices of school meals fell strongly in September last year and in January this year, prices of holiday packages dropped more than in previous years. Excluding the prices of school meals, y-o-y growth in services prices amounts to 1.8%, hovering around this level since December 2009. Figure 21: Movement of prices of services —Services excluding school meals -Services ■4- 4 ■fE 3 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In January, industrial producer prices on the domestic market rose by 0.7%. Y-o-y growth increased as well (to 4.0%). This was still largely a result of price rises in the manufacture of metals and metal products (14.1%) following metal price rises in the international environment, though prices in the manufacture of food products also continued to increase (2.4%), as expected. Y-o-y producer price rises in other activities except the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products eased somewhat. Price competitiveness improved y-o-y in the last quarter and in the year 2010 as a whole, but the improvement was among the smallest in the euro area. Price competitiveness improved y-o-y in the last quarter and in 2010 as a whole (by 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively) mainly due to the depreciation of the euro, but the improvement was among the smallest in the euro area. Slovenia's relatively worse position in y-o-y comparisons is partly attributable to the structure of its external trade, as Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro 8 6 5 0 5 0 Figure 22: Industrial producer prices - PPI (domestic market) -Mnf. of metals and metal products, machinery and equipment -Mnf. of furniture and other manufacturing ----Mnf.offood prod.;beverages;tobaccoprod. ---------Mnf. of chemicals, chem. prod. and mf. of pharm. raw mat. and prep. 18 15 12 Ji^ 9 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 §5 §5 §5 I ^^ I ^^ Source: SORS. area countries and the depreciation of the euro has a smaller effect on the movement of its effective exchange rate (and vice versa). Another reason for its relatively worse position is relative prices, which increased in Slovenia while dropping or maintaining the 2009 level in most other euro area countries. Figure 23: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members deflated by HICP 1Q4 10/ Q4 09 IQ1-Q4 10/Q1-Q4/09 IE DE NL FI SK IT MT FR AT ES PT CY BE EE Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. LU GR Balance of payments In the last quarter of 2010, the current account deficit (EUR 154.7 m) increased relative to the previous quarter andy-o-y (by EUR 104.1 m). The y-o-y increase was mainly attributable to the merchandise trade deficit. The deficit in factors incomes widened as well. After declining strongly in 2009, the current account deficit narrowed by a further EUR 106.9 m in 2010, totalling EUR 418.7 m or 1.2% of GDP (1.5% of GDP in 2009). In the last quarter, the merchandise trade deficit widened substantially and in the year as a whole, it exceeded the 2009 deficit. In the last quarter of the year, the merchandise trade deficit usually reaches the highest value in the year, which was EUR 449.9 m in 2010. Unlike the previous three quarters when the deficit was mainly due to deteriorating terms of trade,7 real movements of merchandise trade played a significant role in the last quarter. With rising prices of energy and other primary commodities, the terms of trade have been deteriorating y-o-y since the first quarter of 2010, while they were improving in 2009 when these prices declined and contributed to a better balance of merchandise trade. In the last quarter of 2010, import prices were up 8.8% and export prices up 5.9% y-o-y, which was the strongest growth since 2005. In 2010, the merchandise trade deficit widened by EUR 264.8 m to EUR 963.9 m. In the last quarter, the surplus of services trade narrowed somewhat relative to the same period of 2009. It was also slightly smaller in the year as a whole.The y-o-y decline in the last quarter was mainly impacted by a higher trade deficit in miscellaneous business, professional and technical Figure 24: Merchandise trade balance and terms of trade8 ■ Quantities I Prices - Total 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 a a Source: SORS, BS; calculations by IMAD. 7 The terms of trade according to the national accounts statistics. 8 The price effect is calculated as a difference between the nominal value of the merchandise trade balance and the value of the balance of merchandise trade with unchanged terms of trade. Table 7: Balance of payments I-XII 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-XII 09 Current account 24,803.4 25,222.2 -418.7 -525.7 - Trade balance (FOB) 18,362.1 19,326.0 -963.9 -699.1 - Services 4,351.7 3,297.3 1,054.4 1,114.3 - Income 896.6 1,509.8 -613.2 -782.3 Current transfers 1,193.0 1,089.0 104.0 -158.6 Capital and financial account 4,723.1 -4,371.0 352.1 220.4 - Capital account 355.0 -343.9 11.2 -9.4 - Capital transfers 353.4 -338.4 14.9 -4.1 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.7 -5.5 -3.8 -5.3 - Financial account 4,368.1 -4,027.1 341.0 229.8 - Direct investment 629.8 -113.9 515.9 -539.1 - Portfolio investment 2,331.5 -493.7 1,837.9 4,624.5 - Financial derivates 45.2 -135.0 -89.9 -2.0 - Other investment 1,342.9 -3,284.5 -1,941.7 -4,020.8 - Assets 960.7 -244.0 716.7 -273.5 - Liabilities 382.2 -3,040.5 -2,658.4 -3,747.3 - Reserve assets 18.8 0.0 18.8 167.2 Net errors and omissions 66.6 0.0 66.6 305.3 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. services. In the year as a whole, the surplus amounted to EUR 1,054.4 m, EUR 59.9 m less than in 2009, which was largely due to a greater trade deficit in licences, patents and copyrights where Slovenia has recorded growing imports since 2008. In 2010, the decline in the trade surplus in services was therefore much less pronounced than in 2009 (by EUR 378.9 m). With the recovery of merchandise trade, the trade surplus in transport services already widened last year after narrowing in 2009 and the surplus in trade in travel services stopped deepening after the 2009 decline.9 Net interest payments abroad, which were still lower y-o-y in the first half of last year, exceeded the level of the same period of 2009 in the third quarter and - even more - in the last. The deficit in factor incomes was, consequently, already higher y-o-y. In the fourth quarter, the deficit in factor income balance was higher y-o-y, mainly as a consequence of higher net capital expenditures. The total net interest payments abroad increased y-o-y in the last quarter, mainly due to net payments of interest on portfolio investment. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes amounted to EUR 613.2 m in 2010 and was lower than in the previous year (EUR 782.3 m). A visible improvement in the absorption of EU funds made the greatest contribution to a further decline in the current account deficit. Following the deficit in the first half of the year, the balance of current transfers recorded a surplus in the third quarter, which was even higher in the last quarter when the absorption of EU funds was greatest in the entire year and to date. The deficit in private sector transfers otherwise also increased due to higher net insurance payments abroad. After five years of deficit, the current account balance was in surplus in 2010, in the amount of EUR 104.0 m (in 2009, a deficit in the amount of EUR 158.6 m). External financial transactions10 recorded net outflows in the amount of EUR 62.2 m in the last quarter of 2010 and EUR 322.2 m in the year as a whole. In the last quarter of 2009, the net inflow amounted to EUR 194.4 m (EUR 62.6 m in the entire year). Direct investment flows recovered last year after recording a net outflow in 2009. In the last quarter, direct investment even posted the greatest net inflow in the last eight years (EUR 450.6 m), mainly due to the inflow of equity capital as a result of the purchase of Droga-Kolinska. Net inflows in the previous two quarters of the year reflected debt financing. After portfolio investment recorded high inflows in the first half of 2010 with two long-term bonds issued by the government and one by SID bank, flows were more modest the second half of the year. They also declined relative to 2009 when the government and banks had issued even more bonds than in 2010. Other investment saw a net outflow of EUR 807.1 m in the fourth quarter of this year; liabilities recorded an 9 Based on new data on overnight stays and the average spending of tourists, in 2010, the BS reduced the value of exports of travel services more than the value of imports. Data for 2009 are preliminary. Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. The statistical error, which makes up the difference between the current account balance and the capital and financial account of the balance of payments, totalled EUR 66.6 m or 0.2% of GDP in 2010 (EUR 305.3 m or 0.9% of GDP in 2009). The positive value of the statistical error is most likely a consequence of underestimated (non-identified) net capital inflows. outflow of EUR 1,264.5 m and claims an inflow of EUR 457.5 m. In the entire year, other investment posted a net outflow in the amount of EUR 1,941.7 m. In the last quarter, the greatest transactions were recorded in the banking sector (as throughout the year). In the fourth quarter, as in the entire year 2010, domestic commercial banks withdrew cash from foreign accounts and thus repaid some of their foreign loans again. As a consequence of the maturity of assets obtained from the ECB, the BS also lowered its liabilities by EUR 655.8 m in the last quarter of 2010 ( EUR 1,234.8 m in the entire year). The increase in the gross external debt continued to ease last year. At the end of December 2010, the gross external debt climbed to EUR 40.8 bn, which is a EUR 0.6 bn higher figure than in the previous December and accounts for 113.3% of GDP. Besides the general government debt, which made the greatest contribution to the total growth of gross external debt in 2009 and 2010, the debt of affiliated enterprises, which had declined in 2009, also increased last year, while the banking sector's debt continued to fall. The debt of the so-called other sectors where enterprises prevail rose but marginally after the 2009 increase. Net external debt amounted to EUR 11.3 bn or 31.4% of GDP. Figure 25: Structure of Slovenia's gross external debt I Affiliated enterprises ■ Bank of Slovenia 1 Other sectors I General government I Commercial banks 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Financial markets After being extremely modest at the end of the year, the lending activity of domestic banks strengthened in January. Monthly net flows amounted to EUR 94.1 m and mainly resulted from corporate borrowing, while households net repaid loans for the first time in more than two years. Although the lending activity strengthened in January, it was still nearly one fifth lower y-o-y. Banks also net repaid their net external liabilities in December and inflows of government deposits strengthened noticeably in that month due to the issuance of government bonds. Net inflows of household deposits were relatively high as well. The quality of banks' total assets continues to deteriorate. Figure 26: Net flows and growth in the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households (left axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) -Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) 250 200 100 ii^ 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 30 25 20 15 10 5 (D 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The lending activity picked up in the euro area average at the beginning of the year. Net flows amounted to EUR 13.0 bn, which is an almost ten-fold higher figure than in January last year. The bulk of net flows came from net corporate and NFI borrowing (EUR 10.3 bn). Net household borrowing was relatively modest and governments net repaid their bank loans. In January, Slovenian households recorded relatively even net repayments in all types of loans. Net repayments amounted to EUR 55.8 m and were the highest since November 2008. Net repayments were again a result of net repayments of foreign currency loans, which, according to our estimations, reflects unfavourable movements on foreign exchange markets, as the Swiss franc, by far the most important currency of foreign currency household loans, appreciated by approximately 5% relative to the euro. Net household borrowing in domestic currency was also much more moderate, not even reaching EUR 1 m. 90 0 Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 10 31.I 11 31. I 11/31. XII 10 31. I 11/31. I 10 31. I 10/31. I 09 Loans total 33,515.91 33,609.97 0.3 3.2 2.3 Enterprises and NFI 23,035.85 23,170.53 0.6 -0.3 -0.5 Government 1,197.94 1,213.09 1.3 38.6 35.0 Households 9,282.12 9,226.35 -0.6 9.2 7.9 Consumer credits 2,833.17 2,816.14 -0.6 -2.8 1.1 Lending for house purchase 4,837.08 4,819.76 -0.4 21.0 16.5 Other lending 1,611.87 1,590.45 -1.3 1.2 1.7 Bank deposits total 14,839.56 14,941.11 0.7 3.3 4.7 Overnight deposits 6,200.38 6,270.75 1.1 9.2 11.4 Short-term deposits 4,473.18 4,426.03 -1.1 -11.3 -13.5 Long-term deposits 4,156.65 4,234.36 1.9 39.4 44.3 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.35 9.96 6.5 -98.6 -11.9 Mutual funds 2,048.36 2,042.08 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. January saw the highest corporate and NFI borrowing in the last two years. Net flows amounted to EUR 134.7 m, nearly 90% more than in the same month last year. Net borrowing was only recorded for enterprises, but despite relatively high net inflows (EUR 168.4 m), it is still premature to talk about a revival in lending activity on the basis of just one figure. After NFIs recorded modest net borrowing in the past few months, they repaid their loans with domestic banks in January, in a net amount of EUR 33.7 m. After somewhat stronger borrowing in the second half of last year, enterprises and NFIs repaid their loans in a net amount of EUR 106.2 m in December, which was the second highest net repayment in the previous year. In 2010, enterprises thus repaid foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 262.9 m, while the year 2009 saw a net inflow of foreign loans totalling EUR 43.2 m. Enterprises Figure 27: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates Loans (left axis) - Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 200 150 100 50 'ŠE -50 -100 -150 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 -339.3 -196.2 200 and NFIs largely repaid short-term loans, with net outflows of long-term loans amounting to a mere EUR 3.9 m. Bank financing of Slovenian enterprises and NFIs thus shrank significantly in 2010. Net repayments of domestic and foreign loans amounted to just below EUR 400 m, while in 2009, enterprises borrowed a net EUR 66.8 m from domestic and foreign banks. Banks strengthened net repayments of foreign obligations in December. Net outflows amounted to EUR 212.5 m and were fairly unfavourable from the viewpoint of the maturity structure of bank sources. At the end of the year, banks only made net repayments of long-term loans, in the amount of EUR 354.2 m, the highest net outflows in the last year and a half. In 2010, banks thus net repaid EUR 1.5 bn in foreign deposits and loans, half less than in the previous year. Slovenia's banking system remains highly Figure 28: Net bank borrowing abroad ■ Deposits ■ Short-term ■ Long-term 600 0 vulnerable to the rest of the world and is set to remain under severe liquidity pressure, with a significant part of liabilities becoming due in less than two years. In December, the deterioration of the quality of banks' total assets eased relative to November, but the share of non-performing claims nevertheless rose by 0.2 p.p. at the monthly level (to 3.7%), strengthening by nearly two thirds y-o-y. In January, banks increased impairments and provisions by EUR 36.4 m, which is just over one quarter more than in the same month of the previous year. Figure 29: Additional impairments and provisions and share of non-performing claims 220 200 180 160 140 1^120 !^100 D LU 80 60 40 20 0 I Impairments and provisions (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 J? c 2.0 -1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 I I I I Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. January recorded relatively high inflows of household deposits to banks and a significant strengthening of government bank deposits duetothe issuance ofgovernment bonds in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn. Household deposits in domestic banks expanded by more than EUR 100 m in January. The highest net inflows (EUR 77.7 m) were once again recorded for long-term deposits, which increased somewhat for the second successive month while the volume of short-term deposits continued to decline. After the government largely made net withdrawals of bank deposits last year, January's net inflows totalled EUR 1.0 bn. The government invested the bulk of its assets (EUR 0.9 bn) in short-term deposits. Mainly intended to cover the government's financial needs, these deposits otherwise recorded a net outflow of EUR 1.2 bn last year. Figure 30: Net inflows of household and government deposits to banks and y-o-y change in stock ^^m Households (left axis) ^^m Government deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) -Households (right axis) ----Government deposits (right axis) 1500 1200 900 200 160 120 80 40 L 0 0 -40 -80 -120 E5 E5 E5 E5 ^^ I I I I Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance In January 2011, revenues from taxes and social security contributions increased by 2.5% relative to the previous January.11 According to data on paid taxes and social security contributions,12 payments totalled EUR 1.1 bn in January. General government revenue, generated according to December's tax bases in January, was much lower than in December (-8.6%). After increasing significantly in December, particularly revenues from personal income tax and social security contributions recorded a notable drop in January (-20.9% and -11.1%, respectively), reflecting the wage dynamics at the end of the year. The average gross wage, consequently, declined in December (6.1% in nominal terms) after rising substantially in November mostly due to extraordinary year-end payments (9.9% in nominal terms). Prepayments of corporate income tax dropped substantially relative to December. Revenue from indirect taxes (value added tax, excise duties) was the only revenue to increase in January, which was mainly related to the seasonally 11 In 2011, general government revenue is generated in practically the same tax environment as last year, with certain statutory changes which have no major financial impacts. The amendment to the Value Added Tax mainly pertains to the transposition of European directives into national law aimed at preventing abuse and simplifying the system of value added tax. The amendment abolished the lower rate of value added tax (8.5%) on residential buildings which are not part of social policy (residential buildings intended for permanent residence in multi-dwelling houses up to 120 m2 and detached individual houses up to 250 m2). Post services and imports of goods are also exempt from value added tax according to the new Act if goods are supplied to another Member State. Changes in the Personal Income Tax mainly pertain to the taxation of income from agriculture and introduce a more favourable taxation of pension payments from the voluntary supplementary pension insurance (only 50% of the pension annuity is taken into account in the basis for the personal income tax assessment). 12 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January 2011, Public Payments Administration. Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-XI 2010 v mio EUR XI 10/ XI 09 I-XI 10/ I-XI 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 40.7 -6.1 13,087.0 7.1 0.7 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 36.6 -7.0 11,620.8 6.8 -1.4 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 7.9 -18.5 2,222.1 -5.8 -12.1 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.6 1.3 4,742.9 2.4 1.3 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.2 -3.0 4,340.5 19.0 1.8 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 492.8 -52.4 6.3 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.3 6.0 14,898.9 -1.7 2.4 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.1 9.3 3,584.9 -0.2 0.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.1 -0.8 2,190.4 1.4 0.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.0 7.3 5,751.1 4.4 4.3 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 1,003.3 9.6 2.7 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 327.6 -0.2 -15.0 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.2 2.7 363.8 -60.9 -8.8 stronger spending in December. In January, indirect taxes also increased y-o-y - revenue from value added tax by 4.8% and revenue from excise duties by 6.3%. Y-o-y growth in revenue from excise duties13 also reflects the increase in excise duty rates in the second half of last year and higher quantities of all excise products sold (except cigarettes) in December last year. Revenue from social security contributions was also higher y-o-y (3.0%), as well as revenue from personal income tax (5.5%), within the latter both prepayments of revenue from tax on income from employment (3.6) and revenue from other personal income tax categories, particularly revenue Figure 31: Main taxes and social security contributions, EUR m - Taxes on income and profit ■ Social security contributions ■ Domestic taxes on goods and services Total ^^ ^^ Source: PPA; calculations by IMAD. from property and property rights. The prepayment of corporate income tax declined by nearly 30% y-o-y, to a great extent due to the method of its assessment and calculation, last year's tax rate change, tax relief and worse business performance in the current year. According to the consolidated balance14 of the MF, general government revenues amounted to EUR 13.1 bn and expenditure to EUR 14.9 bn in the first eleven months of 2010. The deficit thus totalled EUR 1,812 m. Revenue increased by 0.7% y-o-y in that period (in the same period of 2009, it declined by 6.2%). Expenditure recorded faster y-o-y growth, 2.4% (7.6% a year earlier). All categories of general government expenditure were up y-o-y in that period, except expenditure on capital transfers, which shrank by as much as 15.0%, payments into the EU budget (-8.8%) and expenditure on subsidies (-6.0%). Interest payments enjoyed the highest growth (46.0%). Transfers to individuals and households were 4.3% higher y-o-y (5.2% excluding pensions); given the deteriorated situation on the labour market, expenditure on transfers to the unemployed recorded the highest growth (24.9%). They increased again in November, by nearly 11%, even though their cumulative growth continues to ease gradually, chiefly due to the base effect. Expenditure on sickness benefits also posted strong growth (11.9%). Pension expenditure rose by 3.7% y-o-y in the first eleven months, as pensions were adjusted by 0.2% in November and paid in arrears for the entire year. Capital expenditures also rose in the first eleven months (2.7%). Expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures increased by 0.3% while expenditure on goods and services was just above the level recorded in the same period of the previous year (0.1%). 13 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 14 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds. Source: MF. 50 Figure 32: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,450 1,400 ^ 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 'iE cc ^^^ 1,150 1,100 - General government revenues - General government expenditures policy; Slovenia received close to EUR 45 m (83% of all receipts) from the structural funds (European Regional Development Fund), which is 10.6% of what had been foreseen in the budget for 2011, but a mere EUR 2 m from the cohesion fund (3.8% of all receipts). A similar situation was recorded for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies where absorption of EU funds was negligible. Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. The state government deficit climbed to EUR 1,731 m in the first eleven months of 2010. With expenditure increasing by 4.7%, the total balance of local government budgets also recorded a deficit in that period (EUR 109 m). The deficit of the health fund stood at EUR 31 m. The transfer from the state budget into the pension fund amounted to EUR 1,284. m in the first eleven months (5.5 % more than a year earlier). In January 2011, Slovenia received EUR 53.9 m from the EU budget, which equals the average monthly level in 2010, with the exception of December. Slovenia paid EUR 35 m into the EU budget and its positive net budgetary position amounted close to EUR 19 m. The greatest absorption was recorded in the implementation of cohesion Figure 33: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion policy Other Pre-accession EUfunds ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2011 ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 ■ Total funds received in 2011 (January) ■ Total funds received in 2010 (Jan.-Dec.) 100 200 300 400 500 600 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Production, consumption and international electricity trade in 2010 Slovenia is mainly a net electricity importer,15 but in the period of the economic crisis, its electricity consumption and production were roughly the same. Slovenia generates more than 40% of electricity in the nuclear power plant, one third in thermal power plants and around one fourth in hydroelectric power plants.16 Production in hydroelectric power plants is highly volatile, depending on weather conditions, and its yearly share therefore hovers between 20% and 30%. Higher production in hydroelectric power plants results in higher electricity exports and better business results. In 2010, more than one tenth of electricity was used by direct consumers on the transmission network (the metal industry - aluminium and steel), close to one fourth by households and the rest by other business consumers.17 In the last two years, characterised by lower electricity consumption and very high hydro-energy production, electricity production18 and consumption were fairly equal, while in the previous, more normal years, Slovenia recorded a significant deficit, which was covered by imports. Figure 34: Hydroelectric power plant production by month 600 500 400 : 300 200 100 ■ Average 2000-2008 -2010 2009 Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. In 2010, electricity production was similar to that in the previous year, with high hydroelectric power plant production standing out once again. Last year saw practically the same electricity output as the year 2009 (0.1%). Outputs by individual types of electric power 15 Mandatory contractual delivery to Croatia of half of the electricity produced in the nuclear power plant Krško is excluded from the calculation. 16 When hydroelectric power plant production is approximately at a long-term average. 17 Households and other business consumers represent consumers from the distribution network. 18 Taking into account only the Slovenian half of the nuclear power plant production. plants did not differ much either. Electricity production in thermal power plants rose by 2.0%, while it declined by 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively, in the nuclear power plant and in hydroelectric power plants. As already in 2009, hydroelectric power production was significantly, one third, higher than the long-term average (2000-2008). The monthly water levels and, consequently, hydroelectric power production otherwise tend to be low in the winter and high in the spring. In 2009, hydroelectric power production had been highly above average in the spring, while in 2010, it was particularly high in the late autumn, which was marked by floods. Given that hydroelectric power output is difficult to plan, a higher-than-planned volume of electricity production always increases exports and contributes to higher net exports or lower net imports. With a significant part of hydroelectric power production being generated in the already depreciated electric power plants on the Drava river, the surplus also tends to improve business results. An increase in this energy's share is also favourable from the environmental point of view, given that hydro-energy is a renewable energy source. Table 10: Electricity consumption Consumption in TWh Grovth, in % 2008 2009 2010 10/09 10/08 Distribution 10,6 10,1 10,4 3,4 -1,2 Direct consumption 2,0 1,1 1,4 27,7 -30,9 TOTAL* 12,8 11,4 12,4 8,1 -3,5 Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Excluding transmission losses and consumption of the pumped-storage power plant Avče. After declining in 2008-2009, electricity consumptions increased significantly in 2010, but was still below the level recorded before the economic crisis. Electricity consumption had declined by 5.4% already in 2008, but nine tenths of the decline was related to the transition Figure 35: Contractual cross-border electricity exchange Net exports -Imports -Exports (excl. 50% of nucl. power plant Krško*) 8 6 % 4 j= 2 1 1 i... ir : ^_ Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Being an obligatory delivery, the Croatian part of the nuclear power plant production is excluded from exports. 0 0 to a less energy-intensive aluminium production and the bankruptcy of a large metallurgical company. Total electricity consumption dropped by a further 10.7% in 2009, consumption from the distribution network by 4.4% and direct consumption by as much as 46.3%. The decline in electricity consumption was largely related to lower energy consumption due to the slump of economic activity that year. In 2010, total consumption rose by 8.1% against the background of a gradual economic recovery.19 Despite having increased significantly, the consumption by direct consumers is still much lower than in 2008, while the consumption from the distribution network has already more or less returned to the level of 2008. After slight net electricity exports in 2009, Slovenia recorded small net imports last year, while international trade continued to grow. With very low consumption and high production thanks to the hydro energy surplus, Slovenia witnessed net electricity exports of 315 GWh in 2009. Last year, it recorded net imports of 574 GWh, which covered 4.6% of its needs. However, in the circumstances of higher economic activity and if water levels are normal, Slovenia's net imports of electricity are much higher (in 2007, for instance, Slovenia's net imports amounted to 3,123 GWh, which was 23.1% of all electricity consumption). The volume of Slovenia's international electricity trade exceeds significantly the surplus of consumption over domestic output. A significant portion of electricity directed to the greatest net electricity importer in Europe, Italy, also goes through Slovenia, while imports flows are mainly recorded on the borders with Austria and Croatia. The total contractual exports from Slovenia recorded 7,448 GWh in 2010, while total contractual imports amounted to 8,022 GWh. In 2010, imports were thus nearly twice as high (89%) and exports nearly three times as high (208%) as in 2004.20 19 If we disregard the consumption of the pumped-storage power plant Avče, which was connected to the network for the first time that year, total consumption increased by 6.0%. 20 The year 2004 was the first year of the validity of the new contract with Croatia so that the entire half of the nuclear plant production began to be delivered to Croatia again. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Autumn forecast 2010 forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.5 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 36,061 37,227 39,033 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,602 18,240 19,087 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,700 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 87 88 89 91 86 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 28,506 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 35,511 36,552 38,223 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 28,362 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 35,555 36,525 38,183 Rate of registered unemployment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.0 10.6 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.1 6.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.4 3.4 2.9 3.0 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 2.7 2.2 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 7.8 5.9 7.0 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 10.2 5.9 7.2 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 -1.1 5.5 6.0 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 6.6 4.5 5.9 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 7.7 4.4 5.8 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 1.1 5.6 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -419 -386 -427 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 40,851 As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.3 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 113.3 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.294 1.294 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 0.5 1.0 2.0 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 56.2 55.5 55.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.8 -0.8 1.4 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.1 19.7 19.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 -6.7 4.0 4.3 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 22.3 23.3 23.7 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). PRODUCTION 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.5 -17.4 6.7 -7.7 -18.2 -24.6 -18.4 -7.1 -0.3 11.2 8.1 7.8 -13.2 -17.1 -21.5 -15.9 -29.8 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 -2.9 12.6 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 14.1 26.4 18.0 18.8 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 C Manufacturing 2.6 -18.7 7.1 -8.4 -20.0 -25.9 -19.5 -7.9 0.2 12.1 8.0 7.9 -15.4 -18.9 -23.8 -17.3 -31.6 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.1 -6.6 1.3 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 4.9 7.5 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 -21.0 -16.9 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.0 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 Buildings 11.5 -22.5 -14.6 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -21.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 Civil engineering 18.9 -19.9 -18.4 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -12.1 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 18.4 -9.2 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -2.3 -24.2 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 10.1 -13.0 3.4 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.6 5.2 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 Real turnover in retail trade 12.2 -10.6 -0.1 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.1 1.9 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.2 -21.7 11.7 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.3 11.2 13.3 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 17.1 -21.4 1.1 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 3.9 5.4 1.8 0.5 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.8 -3.4 -1.5 8.3 -3.5 -4.6 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 12.3 2.7 -5.7 -7.0 2.4 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.2 2.8 -4.2 15.2 4.3 1.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 15.6 7.7 -1.0 8.9 3.3 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -0.5 -8.0 0.7 2.7 -10.6 -8.6 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 9.1 -0.7 -12.2 -19.3 1.7 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 -7.8 2.7 3.9 -3.9 -8.2 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.1 -0.6 -1.4 -6.7 -3.7 -6.1 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 529.9 449.3 454.5 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 3 -22 -9 -15 -31 -28 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -25 -31 -29 -33 -34 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 -23 -1 -27 -35 -27 -19 -13 -7 -1 3 0 -32 -37 -33 -34 -32 - in construction 2 -50 -57 -21 -43 -51 -54 -50 -57 -60 -56 -53 -34 -39 -41 -50 -53 - in services 26 -14 -3 6 -20 -23 -9 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -9 -17 -18 -26 -27 - in retail trade 22 -13 7 8 -17 -17 -9 -7 -6 11 12 12 -3 -14 -16 -20 -16 Consumer confidence indicator -20 -30 -25 -29 -39 -31 -23 -25 -25 -22 -27 -25 -35 -43 -37 -37 -41 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2009 2010 2011 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 -29.8 -22.2 -21.6 -20.8 -17.5 -16.8 -19.6 -1.7 4.7 -8.8 -1.2 8.3 9.1 14.3 10.2 6.9 13.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.6 18.5 39.6 22.5 24.5 -31.6 -23.6 -22.5 -22.1 -19.4 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.8 -0.7 9.2 10.3 15.1 11.0 7.6 14.4 3.7 5.4 - - -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.2 -3.6 1.1 13.6 2.2 - - -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -16.0 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -26.5 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -8.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.3 4.9 6.6 3.9 8.4 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.1 3.2 1.3 3.4 -2.0 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.4 15.9 15.5 3.5 15.4 14.4 9.6 18.8 16.6 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 4.7 10.6 2.9 7.8 5.7 1.4 4.5 - - -11.9 -2.7 -3.4 0.8 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 6.0 -2.8 2.9 8.9 6.8 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 1.0 - -17.4 -6.7 -11.7 -3.0 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 9.0 - -9.3 -9.2 -7.8 -5.9 -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.4 3.6 5.7 4.5 2.4 6.6 5.5 3.2 - - 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 -25 -24 -21 -19 -13 -12 -14 -14 -10 -11 -15 -12 -8 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -7 -27 -22 -23 -20 -14 -16 -12 -11 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 1 6 1 1 2 -2 -1 4 4 -47 -53 -49 -59 -55 -56 -47 -48 -55 -56 -61 -63 -58 -59 -60 -57 -51 -51 -53 -55 -55 -50 -21 -21 -13 -11 -4 4 -5 -4 4 1 -10 -8 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -1 -3 -18 -18 -16 -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 -5 9 10 13 10 14 12 13 10 12 -4 11 -29 -24 -25 -27 -16 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 -26 -26 -24 -26 -26 -28 LABOUR MARKET 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 942.5 944.5 935.5 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 946.2 945.9 945.7 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 879.3 858.2 835.0 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 39.7 37.9 33.4 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 37.8 37.8 37.8 In industry, construction 330.4 306.9 287.3 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 Of which: in manufacturing 222.4 199.8 188.6 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 211.8 209.6 207.0 in construction 87.9 86.8 78.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 88.3 87.7 87.5 In services 509.1 513.4 514.3 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 514.4 513.6 513.5 Of which: in public administration 51.0 51.5 52.0 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 in education, health-services, social work 111.1 113.8 116.7 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 112.8 113.2 113.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 789.9 767.4 747.2 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 783.0 779.5 776.6 In enterprises and organisations 717.6 699.4 685.7 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 712.6 709.7 707.3 By those self-employed 72.3 67.9 61.5 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 70.4 69.7 69.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 89.4 90.8 87.8 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 89.2 89.3 89.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 63.2 86.4 100.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 73.9 77.2 79.7 Female 33.4 42.4 47.9 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 37.2 38.5 39.5 By age: under 26 9.1 13.3 13.9 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 11.7 12.3 12.7 aged over 50 21.9 26.2 31.4 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 23.6 24.1 24.5 Unskilled 25.4 34.1 37.5 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 30.1 31.4 32.2 For more than 1 year 32.3 31.5 42.8 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 31.2 31.0 30.7 Those receiving benefits 14.4 27.4 30.0 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 20.9 22.8 24.5 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 6.7 9.1 10.7 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 7.8 8.2 8.4 Male 5.6 8.3 10.1 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 6.9 7.3 7.6 Female 8.1 10.2 11.6 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 13.7 -5.2 -12.3 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 -3.4 -5.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.5 17.0 16.8 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 Redundancies 53.0 90.5 83.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 41.7 48.6 57.0 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 3.2 2.7 3.6 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 26.1 28.5 29.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 0.7 1.9 2.5 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 13.2 -9.6 -6.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.5 -3.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 Retirements2 22.4 24.5 27.7 6.1 5.3 5.2 6.7 7.3 6.7 5.9 6.6 8.4 2.2 1.6 1.5 Others who found employment2 31.5 34.7 27.3 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 11.5 5.2 5.8 1.7 2.2 2.9 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 240.5 161.3 174.6 47.7 40.1 40.3 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 13.7 12.2 14.2 For a fixed term, in % 74.5 78.1 80.7 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 72.0 75.0 77.5 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 81.1 86.6 75.5 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 74.9 74.4 90.7 91.2 92.6 As % of labour force 8.6 9.2 8.1 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 9.6 9.6 9.8 NEW JOBS 162.7 111.4 104.1 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 10.2 8.1 9.3 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by pDiI and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2009 2010 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 -1.3 0.2 -3.2 -1.3 1.1 4.1 -1.0 -8.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 -1.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.5 2.5 3.5 1.5 1.4 5.3 4.5 5.2 0.3 -2.4 3.5 3.7 6.1 2.3 3.1 -0.6 1.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 -2.6 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 75.1 74.9 74.5 73.9 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 9 10 11 12 1 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 8.3 3.4 3.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.1 -0.2 5.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 B Mining and quarrying 13.4 0.9 4.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 C Manufacturing 7.5 0.8 9.0 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.5 3.8 3.7 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.8 2.0 2.2 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 F Constrution 7.5 1.0 4.4 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.7 1.9 3.7 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 H Transportation and storage 8.4 0.7 2.0 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 I Accommodation and food service activities 8.3 1.6 4.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 J Information and communication 7.3 1.4 2.6 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 K Financial and insurance activities 6.0 -0.7 1.0 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 L Real estate activities 6.0 1.9 3.0 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 8.4 2.1 1.6 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 N Administrative and support service activities 9.6 1.8 4.1 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 12.2 5.9 -0.6 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 P Education 7.0 3.6 0.6 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 12.0 -0.3 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.3 3.9 0.5 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 S Other service activities 8.2 1.3 4.2 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.5 0.4 -1.7 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.8 0.7 -1.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 -1.7 -2.2 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 Real (relative producer prices)2 0.8 2.9 -2.8 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 USD/EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 'Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2009 2010 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.9 3.9 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.3 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 12 1 2 3 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 PRICE CONTROL,' y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2009 2010 2011 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.5 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.3 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.3 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.1 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 - -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 12 3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -2,489 -526 -419 -757 -304 64 -235 -51 -113 -85 -66 -155 -346 -75 -137 -92 Goods1 -2,650 -699 -964 -743 -156 -29 -228 -286 -136 -205 -173 -450 -297 -48 -37 -71 Exports 20,048 16,167 18,362 4,577 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,203 4,693 4,637 4,828 1,204 1,214 1,293 1,427 Imports 22,698 16,866 19,326 5,320 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,339 4,899 4,810 5,278 1,501 1,262 1,330 1,498 Services 1,493 1,114 1,054 304 239 311 296 269 233 298 261 262 53 92 60 87 Exports 5,043 4,301 4,352 1,219 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 925 1,071 1,260 1,096 394 307 278 334 Imports 3,549 3,187 3,297 915 679 738 977 793 692 773 999 834 341 215 218 246 Income -1,030 -782 -613 -231 -230 -200 -241 -112 -156 -135 -161 -161 -67 -71 -82 -76 Receipts 1,261 665 897 342 131 176 138 220 207 239 221 230 126 48 42 41 Expenditure 2,292 1,447 1,510 573 361 376 378 332 363 373 382 391 193 119 124 118 Current transfers -302 -159 104 -87 -158 -18 -62 79 -53 -43 6 194 -35 -48 -78 -32 Receipts 870 957 1,193 238 141 266 176 374 258 215 271 449 90 35 45 61 Expenditure 1,172 1,116 1,089 325 299 283 238 296 312 258 264 255 125 83 124 93 Capital and financial account 2,545 220 352 703 -25 -57 129 173 89 253 136 -125 529 188 -96 -117 Capital account -25 -9 11 -26 -4 41 -4 -42 45 2 16 -52 -72 -7 -2 5 Financial account 2,571 230 341 729 -20 -98 133 214 43 250 120 -73 601 196 -95 -121 Direct investment 381 -539 516 299 3 -415 -46 -81 -38 63 34 457 235 148 -14 -132 Domestic abroad -949 -121 -114 -132 104 -260 35 1 -121 25 -25 6 -40 129 -7 -18 Foreign in Slovenia 1,329 -419 630 431 -100 -155 -81 -82 83 38 59 451 275 20 -6 -114 Portfolio investment 572 4,625 1,838 1,258 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,106 503 -48 276 213 410 559 -95 Financial derivatives 46 -2 -90 6 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -65 -14 12 2 -10 -13 0 Other investment 1,551 -4,021 -1,942 -855 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,064 -201 130 -807 145 -349 -713 74 Assets -427 -273 717 300 746 -161 -1,053 194 260 -576 575 457 717 73 603 70 Commercial credits -142 417 -244 554 62 166 -37 227 -228 -209 28 165 466 149 -26 -62 Loans -325 -29 126 -91 40 -91 -23 45 -358 498 13 -27 122 -185 206 19 Currency and deposits 35 -587 740 -155 638 -239 -1,004 18 848 -858 439 311 151 98 413 127 Other assets 4 -75 95 -8 7 2 12 -96 -2 -6 95 8 -22 11 10 -15 Liabilities 1,978 -3,747 -2,658 -1,156 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,324 375 -445 -1,265 -572 -422 -1,316 4 Commercial credits -73 -459 382 -536 -301 -105 25 -78 94 265 -65 87 -288 -299 -33 30 Loans 1,869 -2,941 -1,061 -489 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -412 -195 -74 -381 -43 -125 18 -464 Deposits 190 -318 -1,952 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 -926 -244 5 -1,303 441 Other liabilities -7 -29 -27 6 -5 6 -28 -2 72 -54 -1 -45 3 -3 2 -4 International reserves2 21 167 19 21 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 18 -11 5 -4 86 31 Statistical error -56 305 67 54 329 -7 106 -122 24 -167 -69 280 -184 -113 234 209 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,241 1,783 N/A 544 442 461 407 473 403 455 442 N/A 158 128 152 162 Intermediate goods 10,760 8,090 N/A 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,234 2,539 2,540 N/A 589 644 637 695 Consumer goods 6,808 6,144 N/A 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,533 1,666 1,621 N/A 441 429 491 555 Import of investment goods 3,441 2,288 N/A 878 583 551 521 633 449 611 569 N/A 310 172 161 249 Intermediate goods 13,735 9,823 N/A 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,682 3,036 3,002 N/A 782 758 803 820 Consumer goods 5,870 5,004 N/A 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,263 1,313 1,316 N/A 431 353 389 453 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 10 12 10 11 12 4 18 42 -84 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -23 -126 37 -45 -101 61 2 -58 -11 -69 -79 -6 -67 -7 45 -50 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -20 -89 -27 -78 -133 6 -31 -96 -46 -141 -135 -174 1,304 1,333 1,427 1,401 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,228 1,327 1,648 1,468 1,565 1,660 1,604 1,305 1,728 1,655 1,698 1,476 1,371 1,340 1,382 1,451 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,248 1,416 1,675 1,546 1,698 1,655 1,635 1,401 1,774 1,796 1,833 1,650 103 112 96 59 125 111 114 85 70 80 70 83 101 102 95 60 86 115 115 68 78 344 348 357 436 447 389 367 322 373 298 285 342 353 352 366 431 421 408 369 331 395 241 236 261 376 322 278 253 237 303 218 215 259 253 249 271 372 335 292 254 263 317 -56 -77 -67 -96 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -56 -55 -45 -49 -45 -40 -52 -53 -56 -52 -55 -54 51 55 69 51 43 44 45 107 69 66 64 77 74 82 83 74 74 73 75 75 80 107 132 137 146 109 123 108 90 134 122 119 122 123 127 123 126 127 129 127 130 134 24 -11 -31 2 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -27 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 42 143 116 80 69 80 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 55 82 79 116 88 67 100 123 225 92 90 101 77 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 73 107 78 91 82 91 92 80 82 15 98 -170 104 -66 92 95 -7 85 55 77 -43 131 18 103 122 -54 67 101 -201 -24 -2 -1 45 -3 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 3 -59 18 99 -215 106 -64 91 94 -32 153 62 79 -98 129 22 100 130 -49 40 97 -205 34 -100 -255 -61 -40 27 -34 -17 -89 25 30 -47 -21 3 25 35 54 46 -67 104 253 100 -74 -189 3 26 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -7 -76 -37 -23 23 25 3 5 -33 -26 17 16 -26 -66 -64 -65 3 -18 8 -126 36 37 29 16 25 2 11 52 41 -34 130 237 84 1,005 263 -118 864 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -446 195 607 -201 98 82 -27 -102 61 182 34 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 1 5 5 -888 20 -24 -663 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,375 567 -256 -502 278 23 2 -61 188 -87 -630 -90 -152 -730 721 -656 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 151 62 48 -11 -625 61 708 -194 61 -162 -614 1,233 70 141 -45 -6 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -3 -42 -182 -36 -87 -86 -9 197 -161 -101 -68 333 48 -62 -77 -58 72 -37 -8 48 5 -56 29 -332 417 17 63 103 -37 -53 -37 1 8 -269 -808 838 -592 556 -968 292 -367 93 216 69 563 -400 -542 84 605 -428 261 -11 -543 865 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -14 0 9 73 13 -13 -5 27 -736 751 -745 -7 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,525 505 -304 -490 903 -38 -706 134 127 75 -16 -1,324 -48 -32 -25 20 -110 116 88 80 -246 -87 69 112 55 128 82 -32 -184 152 140 64 -116 -328 349 -1,353 12 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -39 -18 -355 -276 328 -246 -38 -40 5 -240 232 -374 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -305 -801 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 10 17 -5 -7 -33 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 -19 -115 128 -20 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -32 49 6 -86 83 -165 -124 111 -56 -31 280 30 171 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 116 120 167 142 155 158 159 125 159 164 168 N/A 646 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 657 724 853 802 855 882 877 712 951 919 924 N/A 478 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 445 473 615 514 544 609 555 458 608 558 593 N/A 190 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 121 148 180 214 217 180 179 147 243 186 221 N/A 762 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 794 878 1,009 948 1,067 1,020 1,038 875 1,090 1,151 1,124 N/A 437 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 389 516 416 448 449 439 406 472 484 527 N/A 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 68 160 138 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 Central government (S. 1311) 2,162 3,497 3,419 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 212 376 526 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 Households (S. 14, 15) 7,827 8,413 9,282 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,149 21,704 21,648 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,815 2,680 2,496 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,666 5,302 5,812 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 32,113 34,731 35,991 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 In foreign currency 2,370 1,895 1,843 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 Securities, total 3,346 5,345 5,349 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 23,129 27,965 26,765 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 Overnight 6,605 7,200 8,155 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,971 9,779 8,192 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 With agreed maturity -long-term 4,157 9,688 10,336 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,396 1,298 82 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 Deposits in foreign currency, total 490 433 463 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 Overnight 215 238 285 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 With agreed maturity -short-term 198 123 121 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 With agreed maturity -long-term 41 45 55 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 36 27 2 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.46 0.28 0.21 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 4.30 2.51 1.82 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.77 6.43 5.53 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.62 6.28 5.75 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 4.2^ 3.7^ 3.2^ 2.5^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.63 1.23 0.81 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 6-month rates 4.72 1.44 1.08 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.58 0.37 0.19 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 6-month rates 2.69 0.50 0.27 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 2011 8 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,914 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,014 22,022 21,814 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,648 21,794 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,536 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,496 2,453 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,459 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,812 5,674 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,939 35,493 35,389 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,991 36,045 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,875 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,349 5,214 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27936 27,077 27,355 26,817 26,696 27,486 26,765 27,628 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7969 7,934 8,038 8,029 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 8376 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,192 8,814 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 11416 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,336 10,496 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 707 465 494 465 456 471 463 452 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 515 283 310 280 286 291 285 282 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.84 1.87 1.83 1.89 1.86 1.89 1.95 2.04 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.63 5.40 5.84 4.90 5.72 6.00 5.43 5.71 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.09 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.35 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 5 1 6 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,339.2 14,408.0 14,789.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,352.3 1,102.2 1,240.7 Current revenues 14,792.3 13,639.5 13,768.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,782.1 1,047.1 1,151.5 Tax revenues 13,937.4 12,955.4 12,848.3 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.8 996.5 1,091.7 Taxes on income and profit 3,442.2 2,805.1 2,490.7 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 229.5 192.1 Social security contributions 5,095.0 5,161.3 5,234.5 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 423.8 423.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258.0 28.5 28.1 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 2.3 2.4 Taxes on property 214.9 207.0 219.7 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 15.8 27.9 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,805.3 4,660.2 4,780.6 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.8 316.7 436.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120.1 90.5 90.7 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 8.2 8.6 Other taxes 1.8 2.9 4.0 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 0.2 0.3 Non-tax revenues 854.9 684.1 920.4 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 292.3 50.6 59.8 Capital revenues 117.3 106.5 174.2 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 120.3 15.5 10.4 Grants 10.4 11.1 12.5 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 4.9 0.2 0.8 Transferred revenues 53.9 54.3 109.4 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.8 0.1 1.0 Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 596.5 724.7 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 39.3 77.0 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15,441.7 16,368.2 16,675.9 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,570.1 1,478.1 1,330.9 Current expenditures 6,557.5 6,800.8 6,958.9 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,769.5 580.8 532.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,578.9 3,911.9 3,914.4 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 982.0 374.0 318.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,527.5 2,510.3 2,509.6 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 740.2 202.2 203.1 Interest payments 335.2 336.1 488.1 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.1 1.9 4.8 Reserves 116.0 42.5 46.8 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.3 2.7 5.9 Current transfers 6,742.2 7,339.4 7,625.4 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,970.4 761.3 603.8 Subsidies 476.5 597.9 581.4 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.3 54.7 40.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,619.2 6,024.5 6,274.5 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,559.7 643.7 483.9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598.3 678.1 729.3 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.8 56.3 71.2 Current transfers abroad 48.2 38.9 40.1 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 6.6 7.8 Capital expenditures 1,255.5 1,294.1 1,305.8 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 321.1 579.5 84.1 87.4 Capital transfers 458.6 494.6 389.1 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 169.5 27.8 68.0 Payments to the EU budget 427.9 439.3 396.8 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 24.1 39.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,886.4 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2009 2010 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.5 1,183.6 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,702.6 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,047.8 1,116.0 993.6 1,062.1 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,110.0 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,385.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 1,027.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.6 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 114.1 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 268.6 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 432.7 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 491.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 24.7 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 15.1 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 444.4 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 440.1 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 8.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 53.8 62.1 58.2 61.2 56.2 60.1 83.0 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 158.1 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.9 7.3 5.3 5.3 9.4 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 81.9 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 100.9 1.4 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.5 45.1 67.9 12.0 26.3 49.5 61.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 231.8 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.3 1,372.1 1,355.7 1,322.7 1,464.5 1,335.4 1,302.9 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,777.1 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.0 631.6 643.6 613.9 594.4 548.9 529.5 529.0 578.4 557.2 543.8 668.5 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.6 315.2 324.6 313.9 377.2 321.5 319.7 324.8 319.0 329.2 322.8 330.0 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.3 206.8 193.4 211.9 219.6 203.2 200.5 183.9 203.2 216.9 320.1 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 12.7 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.2 612.0 753.2 629.9 608.7 590.1 612.0 624.5 633.0 712.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 39.3 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 97.6 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 509.1 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 523.4 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 59.0 59.4 64.9 58.2 59.0 89.6 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.3 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.6 67.2 86.7 108.2 99.7 113.2 116.1 161.6 301.8 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 19.1 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 52.0 25.6 22.1 34.3 40.7 68.1 60.8 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 30.8 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 33.0 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI -Consumer Price index, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross Domestic Product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supplysewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror February 2011, No. 2. Vol. XVII