2. FEBRUAR 2005 2 FEBRUARY 2005 Št./No 40 19 GRADBENIŠTVO CONSTRUCTION Št./No 5 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V GRADBENIŠTVU, SLOVENIJA, JANUAR 2005 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN CONSTRUCTION, SLOVENIA, JANUARY 2005 Januarja 2005 se je kazalec zaupanja v gradbeništvu zvišal za 16 odstotnih točk v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil višji za 12 odstotnih točk, hkrati pa za 7 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. In January 2005 the confidence indicator in construction rose by 16 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 12 percentage points and by 7 percentage points compared to last year’s average. Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja v tem mesecu je vplivalo veliko povečanje pričakovanega zaposlovanja in znižanje sedanjih skupnih naročil. The evolution of the confidence indicator in this month was influenced by the significant rise of expectated employment and the fall of overall order books. Kazalci stanj so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem večinoma poslabšali, pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece pa so ugodna. Observed indicators for appreciation of the situation deteriorated compared to the previous month, the expectations for the next three months are favourable. 1. KAZALEC ZAUPANJA V GRADBENIŠTVU 1) V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 – JANUAR 2005 CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR 1) IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 – JANUARY 2005 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 Slov enija / Slov enia pov prečje / av erage © SURS 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 2 Rapid reports No 40/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - JANUAR 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - JANUARY 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 3,8 4,1 4,4 4,7 5,0 5,3 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -10 40 90 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  originalni podatki raw data - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 3 3.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stavbe, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, buildings, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -5 0 5 10 15 20 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations 0 10 20 30 40 50 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  stavbe buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 4 Rapid reports No 40/2005 3.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stanovanjske stavbe, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, residential buildings, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -10 20 50 80 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -15 -5 5 15 25 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -45 -25 -5 15 35 55 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -50 -20 10 40 70 100 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  stanovanjske stavbe residential buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 5 3.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, gradbeni inženirski objekti, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, civil engineering, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -30 0 30 60 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 10 20 30 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -70 -30 10 50 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -15 0 15 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  gradbeni inženirski objekti civil engineering  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 6 Rapid reports No 40/2005 4.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo gradnja objektov in delov objektov, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in construction works, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -70 -20 30 80 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -60 -10 40 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  gradnja objektov in delov objektov construction works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 7 4.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo inštalacije pri gradnjah, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in installing equipment and fixtures, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 0 30 60 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -15 0 15 30 45 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  inštalacije pri gradnjah installation of equipment and fixtures  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 8 Rapid reports No 40/2005 4.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo zaključna gradbena dela, januar 2004 - januar 2005 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in finishing works, January 2004 - January 2005 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -20 20 60 100 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -15 -5 5 15 25 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -10 20 50 80 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -60 -10 40 90 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -20 0 20 40 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS  zaključna gradbena dela finishing works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 9 5. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V EU, MAREC 2002 - JANUAR 20051) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN THE EU, MARCH 2002 – JANUARY 20051) Kazalec zaupanja2 / Confidence indicator2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo3 / Assured w ork in hand3 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 mesec/month © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -15 -10 -5 0 5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 -5 0 5 10 15 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 % © SURS 1) Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec nam niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for the EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje ravnotežij na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of balances to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. 3) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 10 Rapid reports No 40/2005 6. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - JANUAR 2005 FACTORS LIMITING BUILDING ACTIVITY IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - JANUARY 2005 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 ni omejitev / no limits težav e s pov prašev anjem / w eakness in demand težav e s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitv e / sev ere obstacles © SURS Graf ponazarja delež zaposlenih v gradbeništvu, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami težav: - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki nimajo omejitev. - Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave z nezadostnim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v dejavnosti. - Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave s slabimi vremenskimi pogoji, visokimi finančnimi stroški, visokimi stroški materiala in dela, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov. V to skupnino sodijo tudi podjetja, ki imajo težave s pomanjkanjem usposobljenih delavcev, opreme in materialov. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave tako z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: - Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits in building activity. - Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient demand and competition in own sector. - Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing bad weather conditions, high cost of finance, materials and/or labour; difficulties with access to bank credits, lack of equipment, and shortage of skilled labour and shortage of materials. - Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 11 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency in Construction (hereinafter: PA-GRAD/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the construction confidence indicator. Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo v Sloveniji od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Construction in Slovenia since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTE OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v gradbeništvo, to je v oddelek Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) 45 in imajo 11 zaposlenih ali več, ter so bila izbrana na podlagi dveh meril: We are monitoring units that are registered in construction – division 45 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) and have 11 or more employees. They were selected by two criteria: − in sicer velikosti (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) − classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V anketi sodeluje 400 izbranih gradbenih podjetij. V anketo smo zajeli vsa velika in srednjevelika podjetja in vsa mala podjetija z 11 zaposlenimi in več. Approximately 400 enterprises participate in the survey. We included all large and medium-sized enterprises and all small enterprises with 11 employees and more. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giba med 5-10 % (povprečno 8 %). Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 5 and 10% (8% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 12 Rapid reports No 40/2005 Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanemu zaposlovanju. Confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on order book assessments and employment expectations. OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o gradbeništvu kot celoti, o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in glede na vrsto gradnje, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Persons participating in the survey get information for construction, division in which they are classified and for the type of construction. They get it only if they responded in the current month. Ostalim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni gradbeništva in njegovih skupin ter podatki glede na vrsto gradnje. Slednji so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v gradbeništvu in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si. Other users can get data for construction and its groups, size of enterprises and type of construction. Data are published in the Rapid Reports – Business Tendency in Construction and in the database SI-STAT which is available on the http://www.stat.si/eng. VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: • Obseg gradbenih del v zadnjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Building activity over the past 3 months: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Dejavniki, ki omejujejo gradbeno dejavnost: ni omejitev, nezadostno povpraševanje, slabi vremenski pogoji, visoki stroški materiala, visoki stroški dela, visoki finančni stroški, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje opreme, pomanjkanje materialov, velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, ostalo? • Factors limiting building activity: none, insufficient demand, bad weather conditions, high cost of material, high cost of labour, high cost of capital, access to bank credit, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of equipment, shortage of material, competition in own sector, other? • Sedanja naročila v tujini: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of foreign order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja domača naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of domestic order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja skupna naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of overall order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Pričakovana naročila v naslednjih 3 mesecih: zrasla, ostala nespremenjena, padla? • Expected order books over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Zaposlovanje v zadnjem mesecu: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Assessment of employment: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Cene so se: zvišale, ostale enake, znižale? • Assessment of prices: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, ostale enake, padale? • Expected prices over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Tehnične zmogljivosti glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih: več kot zadostne, zadostne, nezadostne? • Technical capacity regarding expected demand in the next 12 months: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? • V primeru normalnih delovnih ur že začeto ali s pogodbami zagotovljeno dela za: .... mesecev? • With normal working hours, the work in hand and work already contracted for …. months? • Poslovno stanje v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljše, enako, slabše? • Business situation compared to the previous month: better, the same, worse? Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 13 KOMENTAR COMMENT Januarja 2005 se je kazalec zaupanja v gradbeništvu zvišal za 16 odstotnih točk v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil višji za 12 odstotnih točk, hkrati pa za 7 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. In January 2005 the confidence indicator in construction rose by 16 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 12 percentage points and 7 percentage points above last year’s average. POSLOVNO STANJE BUSINESS SITUATION Ocena poslovnega stanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 12 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 1 odstotno točko in 5 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The evaluation of the business situation fell by 12 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 1 percentage point while compared to last year’s average it was down by 5 percentage points. OBSEG GRADBENIH DEL BUILDING ACTIVITY Ocena obsega gradbenih del se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 10 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 15 odstotnih točk in 10 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the building activity fell by 10 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was down by 15 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 10 percentage points. SKUPNA NAROČILA IN PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NAROČILA OVERALL ORDERS AND EXPECTED ORDERS Vrednost kazalca skupnih naročil se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 14 odstotnih točk in za 2 odstotni točki nad lanskim povprečjem. The value of the overall orders indicator fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 14 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 2 percentage points. Vrednost kazalca pričakovanih skupnih naročil za naslednje 3 mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 29 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 10 odstotnih točk in 11 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The value of the expected orders for the next three months rose by 29 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was down by 10 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 11 percentage points. ZAPOSLOVANJE IN PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EMPLOYMENT AND EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Ocena zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 5 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 4 odstotne točke in 8 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the employment indicator fell by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 4 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 8 percentage points. Ocena pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 33 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 9 odstotnih točk in 10 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of expected employment rose by 33 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 9 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 10 percentage points. CENE IN CENOVNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRICES AND PRICE EXPECTATIONS Vrednost kazalca cen se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 6 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 8 odstotnih točk in enaka lanskemu povprečju. The value of the prices indicator rose by 6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 8 percentage points and the same as last year’s average. Cenovna pričakovanja za naslednje 3 mesece so bila enaka kot pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani so bila nižja za 5 odstotnih točk in 8 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. Price expectations for the next three months were the same as in the previous month. Compared to January 2004 they were down by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 8 percentage points. TEHNIČNE ZMOGLJIVOSTI TECHNICAL CAPACITY Vrednost kazalca tehničnih zmogljivosti vključuje oceno količine in kakovosti opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. Kazalec se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižal za 11 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil nižji za 2 odstotni točki in 6 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of the technical capacity indicator includes the evaluation of the quantity and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. Compared to the previous month the indicator fell by 11 percentage points. It was down by 2 percentage points compared to January 2004 and by 6 percentage points compared to last year’s average. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 14 Rapid reports No 40/2005 ZAGOTOVLJENO DELO ASSURED WORK Vrednost kazalca zagotovljenega dela vključuje oceno števila mesecev, za katere je delo zagotovljeno s pogodbami. V januarju 2005 imajo podjetja s pogodbami zagotovljeno delo v povprečju za 4,2 meseca. Vrednost kazalca je bila enaka kot pretekli mesec. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 0,3 meseca in za 0,3 meseca pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of the assured work indicator includes the evaluation of the number of months for which work is assured by contracts. In January 2005, enterprises had work assured for 4.2 months on average. The indicator was the same as in the previous month. Compared to January 2004 it was up by 0.3 month and 0.3 month below last year’s average. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI LIMITING FACTORS Med omejitvenimi dejavniki v gradbeništvu so prevladovali dejavniki iz skupine hude omejitve. V tem mesecu se je z njimi spopadalo 46 % zaposlenih (oziroma 41 % podjetij). Among factors limiting building activity, severe obstacles prevailed. In January 2005, 46% of employees (41% of enterprises) were faced with them. Sledili so omejitveni dejavniki iz skupine težave s ponudbo. V tem mesecu se je z njimi srečevalo 31 % zaposlenih (oziroma 36 % podjetij). The second most important obstacles were supply difficulties. In January 2005, 31% of employees (36% of enterprises) faced them. Z dejavniki iz skupine šibko povpraševanje se je v tem mesecu srečalo 14 % zaposlenih (oziroma 14 % podjetij). The third most important obstacles were demand difficulties. In January 2005, 14% of employees (14% of enterprises) faced them. Le 9 % zaposlenih (oziroma 9 % podjetij) v tem mesecu ni imelo omejitev v proizvodnji. Only 9% of employees (9% of enterprises) experienced no obstacles in January 2005. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v gradbeništvu pokaže, da je/so v tem mesecu:1 A more detailed overview of factors limiting building activity shows that in January:1 • 48 % podjetij (ali 55 % zaposlenih) omejevala velika konkurenca v dejavnosti; • 48% of enterprises (or 55% of employees) were limited by competition in own sector; • 36 % podjetij (ali 33 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki stroški dela; • 36% of enterprises (or 33% of employees) were limited by high costs of labour; • 34 % podjetij (ali 30 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev; • 34% of enterprises (or 30% of employees) were limited by shortage of skilled labour; • 27 % podjetij (ali 29 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki stroški materiala; • 27% of enterprises (or 29% of employees) were limited by high costs of material; • 20 % podjetij (ali 21 % zaposlenih) omejevali slabi vremenski pogoji; • 20% of enterprises (or 21% of employees) were limited by bad weather conditions; • 20 % podjetij (ali 20 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki finančni stroški; • 20% of enterprises (or 20% of employees) were limited by high costs of capital; • 14 % podjetij (ali 14 % zaposlenih) omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje; • 14% of enterprises (or 14% of employees) were limited by insufficient demand; • 11 % podjetij (ali 5 % zaposlenih) omejevali drugi dejavniki; • 11% of enterprises (or 5% of employees) were limited by other factors; • 10 % podjetij (ali 7 % zaposlenih) omejevale težave pri pridobivanju kreditov; • 10% of enterprises (or 7% of employees) were limited by access to bank credits; • 9 % podjetij (ali 9 % zaposlenih) ni imelo omejitev; • 9% of enterprises (or 9% of employees) experienced no limits; • 1 % podjetij (ali 0 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje opreme; • 1% of enterprises (or 0% of employees) were limited by lack of equipment; 1 Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo proizvodnjo, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several factors limiting their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 40/2005 Rapid reports No 40/2005 15 • 0 % podjetij (ali 0 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje materialov. • 0% of enterprises (or 0% of employees) were limited by shortage of material. Največja omejitev v gradbeništvu je velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, sledijo vremenski pogoji in visoki stroški materiala. The most important factor limiting building activity is competition in own sector, followed by weather conditions and high costs of material. Le 9 % podjetij v gradbeništvu ni imelo omejitev. Only 9% of enterprises experienced no limits in building activity. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Jelena Čirjakovič Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 430 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Gradbeništvo 1408-9300 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel. (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta:info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 430 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Construction 1408-9300 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.