.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) un LO cB fN fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 5 / Vol. XXI / 2015 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Matevž Hribernik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Lejla Fajič; Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Mateja Kovač , MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic; Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Mitja Perko, MSc (Effects of changes in labour market regulation); Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar (Business results of companies in 2014); Valerija Korošec, PhD (Social progress index) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................14 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................16 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................17 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................19 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2015.......................................................................................................................9 Box 2: Agricultural output in 2014....................................................................................................................................12 Box 3: Absorption of cohesion funds in the programming period 2007-2013..............................................................21 Selected topics Effects of changes in labour market regulation.........................................................................................................25 Business results of companies in 2014..............................................................................................................................27 Social progress index.........................................................................................................................................................29 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 5 June 2015. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/enq/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In the first quarter, economic activity in the euro area continued to increase (0.4%), and GDP was up 1.0 % year-on-year. Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area was mainly underpinned by domestic demand, particularly private consumption in Germany and France, and investment in Italy. Confidence indicators in the euro area indicate a continuation of the recovery in the second quarter. International institutions (ECB, OECD, EC) have raised their spring forecasts for GDP growth in the euro area, expecting it to rise to around 1.5% in 2015. Economic activity in Slovenia continued to recover in the first quarter. GDP was up 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) and 2.9% higher than in the same period of 2014. Exports remained the main driver of economic recovery, despite slower growth. The recovery of private consumption showed in higher purchases of durable goods, while construction investment was somewhat lower year-on-year at the beginning of 2015 after recording strong growth since mid-2013. Inventories made a significant contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter, which is explained by higher activity in some sectors (particularly manufacturing), which has not yet fully spilled over into consumption, in our estimation. In the first quarter, employment continued to increase, while in May, registered unemployment remained roughly unchanged from the previous month (seasonally adjusted). In the first quarter, employment rose slightly again, particularly in manufacturing, transportation and storage, and in accommodation and food service activities. It was also up in employment activities engaged in the provision of labour. After declining for a long period, the number of registered unemployed remained similar to that in April, seasonally adjusted. A total of 112,385 persons were unemployed at the end of May, 6.1% fewer than in the same period of 2014. Gross earnings per employee rose further in the first quarter of 2015 (seasonally adjusted), which was, unlike last year, mainly due to higher earnings in the public sector. Private sector gross earnings dropped slightly, in spite of the strong increase in March. In May consumer prices were down year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month. The continuation of year-on-year deflation (-0.5%) was mainly due to external factors, i.e. the falling energy prices, but their decline was mitigated by somewhat higher services prices. Food price growth remained modest. Core inflation excluding the impact of external factors nevertheless stayed positive and comparable to that in the euro area. After five months of deflation or zero growth, euro area prices rose slightly year-on-year in May. April saw a decline in loans to domestic non-banking sectors at domestic banks, and the quality of banks' assets is improving. In the first four months, the amount of loans to domestic non-banking sectors was almost EUR 240 m lower year-on-year. The decrease was attributable primarily to corporate and NFI deleveraging and, to a lesser extent, a decline in government loans. Household loans increased, while banks continued to reduce liabilities abroad. Household deposits at domestic banks are rising at a slower pace, also as households are looking for alternative investments. The quality of banks' assets is still improving gradually, and the creation of additional provisions and impairments is easing. At the end of the first quarter, non-performing claims thus accounted for 11.4% (EUR 4.2 bn) of the banking system's total exposure. According to data from the consolidated budgetary accounts on a cash basis, the general government deficit in the first quarter (EUR 654m) was similar to that in the same period of 2014. Both general government revenue and expenditure remained at a level similar to the first quarter of 2014. The shortfall in non-tax revenue was offset by higher tax revenues and higher revenue from social contributions. On the expenditure side, interest payments were up, alongside payments into the EU budget, while expenditure on goods and services, investment expenditure and current transfers decreased. Expenditure excluding interest payments being down year-on-year, the primary budget deficit was a quarter lower. The labour market reform in 2013 and 2014 worked towards increasing flexibility, reducing segmentation and increasing legal protection of employees. By reducing severance pay and shortening the notice periods for permanent employment, the reform lowered the protection of regular employment (as measured by the OECD employment protection legislation index) and created the conditions for greater flexibility, which in the short term mainly shows in a higher number of new jobs, particularly for an indefinite period. This was also reflected in lower segmentation on the labour market, as the share of new temporary jobs rose particularly among the young. Because of the relatively short period since its implementation, the reform has had mainly short-term effects, which, given the recovery in economic activity, cannot be attributed only to changes in regulation. In 2014 companies' business results improved significantly, reaching the highest level since 2008. The overall business result (EUR 887 m) was similar to that at the beginning of the previous decade and almost four times below the very high level just before the crisis (2007). The improvement was due to both main components of the business result. Having recovered only slowly after the strong decline in 2009, the net operating profit rose by a fifth last year and was around a quarter lower than before the crisis. The financial loss also declined, but remained significant. The increase in the operating profit stemmed from the tradable sector, as the performance of the non-tradable sector deteriorated further. Companies continued to deleverage in 2014, reducing particularly short-term financial liabilities to banks. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment In the first quarter, economic activity in the euro area continued to strengthen. GDP rose by 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) and was 1.0% higher year-on-year. Its growth was in line with the spring expectations of the EC, being slightly lower only in Germany and Austria. Among Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area, in Germany and France GDP growth was mainly underpinned by domestic demand, particularly private consumption. For the first time in a long period, quarterly growth was also recorded in Italy, mainly as a result of investment in machinery and equipment. Growth in Austria remains low. Figure 1: Quarterly growth rates in Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area Q2 14 ■Q3 14 Q4 14 ■Q1 15 -Q1 15 EC forecast 0.7 0.6 1^0.5 i0.4 0.3 ■Ö ro 0.2 ro c is 0.1 iS i^0.0 -0.2 -0.3 Figure 2: The Economic Sentiment indicator (ESI) in Slovenia's main trading partners Source: Eurostat, EC Forecast (May 2015). Confidence indicators in the euro area indicate a further recovery in the second quarter. In May the Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area (ESI) remained similar to that in the previous two months but higher than at the beginning of the year. The ESI is improving in the majority of Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area and the EU. The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) continues to indicate positive trends, being higher particularly for manufacturing, where it reached its highest level in a year, while the Table 1: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2014 IV15 V 15 V 15/ IV 15 V 15/ V 14 I-V 15/ I-V 14 Brent USD, per barrel 98.93 59.52 64.52 8.4 -41.1 -47.3 Brent EUR, per barrel 74.58 56.60 58.91 4.1 -25.8 -33.3 EUR/USD 1.329 1.078 1.115 3.4 -19.3 -18.8 3-month EURIBOR, in % 0.209 0.005 -0.010 -1.5 -34.0 -28.2 a a a a a Source: EC. Note: The indicator value 100 is the long-term average. For Q2 2015, data for April and May are available. indicator for services dropped slightly. The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area for the second quarter was also the highest since 2007. The situation of the euro area financial system is improving. According to the latest financial stability review by the ECB, the pressures on the financial system are currently low, which is also attributable to the recently adopted non-standard measures. Despite the improvement in the economic situation and the recovery of lending activity in the euro area, the risks to financial stability remain. Among the main risks, the ECB emphasises the still fragile economic recovery in the euro area, low bank profitability in an environment of low interest rates, excessive risk-taking on financial markets, a growing Figure 3: Yields to maturity of 10-year government bonds 16 10 4 Source: EIA, ECB Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Source: Bloomberg. 18 14 12 8 6 2 0 shadow banking sector and higher borrowing costs amid high indebtedness of euro area countries (particularly the vulnerable ones). In May the yields of 10-year government bonds increased in the majority of countries, but remained low. The yield to maturity of the Slovenian euro bond thus rose by 53 basis points relative to April, averaging around 1.6%. Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) Figure 5: Merchandise trade - real 4,600 130 120 110 100 90 80 cc 70 60 50 40 30 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 Ču 1.25 i3 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia In the first quarter, real merchandise exports decreased, while imports increased; both remained up year-on-year.' For the first time in a long period, real merchandise exports otherwise declined relative to the previous quarter (-1.4%, seasonally adjusted), due to lower exports to the EU. Consequently, their year-on-year growth slowed Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2014 III 15/ II 15 III 15/ III 14 I-III 15/ I-III 14 Merchandise exports, real1 7.1 0.93 7.7 3.8 Merchandise imports, real1 4.0 -1.63 6.7 4.8 Services exports, nominal2 4.1 -0.93 8.2 6.9 Services imports, nominal2 7.4 -2.53 3.4 -1.0 Industrial production, real 2.0 0.53 4.64 5.24 -manufacturing 4.1 0.43 5.44 6.24 Construction -value of construction put in place, reasl 19.5 2.03 -4.1 -1.5 Real turnover in retail trade 0.0 -1.53 0.1 0.9 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.7 -0.63 2.5 3.5 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. 4,500 4,400 g 4,300 cc 4,200 iz 4,100 J^ 4,000 c 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 -Exports 1 1 -Imports \ J ........A.. . ly ^^ / 7 V i ......T...... I- o o o o o Source: SURS. too (5.5%), being still mainly driven by higher exports of road vehicles; a significant contribution to growth also came from the metal industry.2 Business tendency data on expected exports in manufacturing indicate further growth. In contrast, real merchandise imports rose relative to the last quarter of 2014 (by 2.2%, seasonally adjusted). They also recorded stronger year-on-year growth (6.6%), primarily on the back of higher imports of production goods related to the recovery in manufacturing production and higher imports of transport equipment and passenger cars. In the first quarter, nominal exports and imports of services rose further (seasonally adjusted); exports also continued to increase year-on-year, while imports were Figure 6: Trade in services - nominal -Exports -Imports 1,500 1,400 a a a Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. 1 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 2 Exports of non-ferrous metals, iron and steel and manufactures of metals. Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2015 In the first quarter, economic activity continued to recover; year-on-year GDP growth was mainly due to the significant contribution of changes in inventories related to higher activity in some sectors, which has not yet fully spilled over to consumption. GDP was up 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) and 2.9% higher than in the same period of 2014. GDP growth in the first quarter was mainly attributable to manufacturing, where value added has been rising relatively rapidly for a year. This growth was relatively more related to higher inventories (a contribution of 2.5 percentage points) and less than in previous quarters to export growth (5.4%), which slowed. With a concurrent strengthening of year-on-year growth in imports (5.4%), the contribution of net exports (0.5 percentage points) to the change in GDP decreased. A larger contribution to the recovery again came from market services, especially distributive trades, accommodation and food service activities, and other service activities. Value added growth in these sectors is related to a higher number of foreign tourists and stronger household consumption, although this remains modest (0.4%) according to SURS. Especially the consumption of durable goods continued to recover, purchases of motor vehicles in particular, as already indicated by short-term consumption indicators. After increasing strongly since mid-2013, construction investment growth came to a halt at the end of last and the beginning of this year, mainly due to slower public investment, which is also reflected in a year-on-year decline in value added in construction. Fluctuating at the quarterly level, private investment is otherwise gradually rising, according to our estimate, which is explained by last year's goods export and business performance, relatively favourable signals from abroad, deleveraging and a gradual improvement in access to funding. Figure 7: GDP level in Slovenia and its main trading partners —♦—Slovenia -Germany -------France ---Italy -Austria -------Croatia 106 104 102 o TT 100 8B 98 96 12 94 ro == 92 1= Jg 90 88 86 cS a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Expenditure structure of change in GDP, Slovenia Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories and valuables -!; Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services [J -Real GDP growth (right axis) [^15 fä 5 -15 a Source: SURS. lower than a year before due to the base effect.3 Year-on-year growth in exports (6.9%) was mainly driven by higher exports of travel services owing to a higher number of foreign tourist arrivals, exports of transport services, amid the continued strong growth in merchandise trade, and exports of telecommunication services. Imports were down year-on-year as a result of the strong growth in the first quarter of 2014 (-1.0%). The decline was attributable primarily to lower imports of construction services due to the completion of works on a major energy facility, and lower imports of professional and management consultancy services, which in the same period of 2014 recorded strong growth due to the payments of the banks' asset quality review. Production volume in manufacturing rose further in the first quarter, notably in the medium-low-technology industries (seasonally adjusted). In all industry groups, production was also up year-on-year. The largest increase relative to the same period of 2014 was recorded in more technology-intensive industries. Production in the manufacture of transport equipment was higher by a third, having increased particularly in the second half of 2014 after two new passenger cars began to be commercially produced. In the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment, production volume rose by more than a tenth. It was significantly higher year-on-year in the metal industry (medium-low-technology industries) and the leather industry (low-technology), remaining down only in the textile industry, which recorded half lower activity than before the crisis. 3 According to the balance of payments statistics. 10 0 Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing by technology intensity 10 IH1 2014 ■H2 2014 «01 2015 5 High- and medium- Medium-low- Low-technology high-technology technology industries industries industries Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The number of persons employed in the manufacturing sector also continued to increase in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted). It was 1,481 (0.6%) higher than in the same period of last year. Higher employment than the same period of 2014 was recorded in the majority of more technology-intensive industries. It increased the most in transport equipment manufacturing, primarily in the Table 3: Employment in manufacturing, by industry, Change in number Growth, in % Share in employment of the activity, in % Low-technology industries -691 -1.4 27.2 Food-processing ind. 218 1.5 8.0 Wood ind. 43 0.5 4.5 Leather ind. 41 1.2 1.9 Furniture and other ind. 41 0.5 4.8 Manufacture of paper, printing 27 0.3 4.5 Textile ind. -1061 -15.0 3.4 Medium-low-technology industries 1916 3.0 37.0 Metal ind. 1581 4.4 21.0 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 309 2.4 7.5 Repair, installation of machinery and equipment 198 2.4 4.7 Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products -172 -2.4 3.9 Medium-high- and high-technology industries 256 0.4 35.8 Manufacture of transport equipment 538 3.7 8.3 Chemical and pharmaceutical ind. 241 1.9 7.1 Manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment -70 -0.3 13.2 Manufacture of machinery and equipment -453 -3.4 7.2 manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles (by around 370, or 6.5%), which accounts for a third of jobs in this sector. It remained down year-on-year in other machinery and equipment, where the decline was mainly due to lower employment in the manufacture of pumps and compressors and taps and valves (700 persons in total). In the first quarter, the greatest contribution to employment growth in manufacturing came from medium-low-technology industries, in particular the metal industry. The number of employed continues to decline in the sector of non-metallic mineral products manufacturing, where in the past year it has fallen the most in the manufacture of glass and glass products (by around 100, or 5%). In the majority of low-technology industries employment was almost the same or slightly higher than a year earlier. It dropped again in the textile industry, which before the crisis had employed a quarter of persons working in this sector. Since the crisis began, their number has fallen by approximately two thirds, from around 18,000 in 2008 to around 6,000 in the first quarter, or 12% of the total number of persons working in low-technology industries. After declining in the second half of 2014, the value of construction put in place rose in the first quarter of 2015, seasonally adjusted. Similar developments were recorded in the construction of civil-engineering works. The value of construction put in place in non-residential buildings has been practically unchanged in the past two years, with considerable monthly fluctuations. Activity in the construction of residential buildings dropped again in the first quarter. The stock of contracts and the value of new contracts in construction indicate different prospects for the future. Having been rising since mid-2014, the stock of contracts in construction fell slightly again this year. The value of new contracts, which recorded a 13.3% decline in 2014, continues to decrease this year. Figure 10: Value of construction put in place -Construction ----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings ----Civil-engineering works 70 50 20 10 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. X ^ V / / / / / / \ / \ / \ _ \ 4- ' + \ \ \ / \ / \ / %/ \ V on C? C? C? c? Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 0 60 30 0 Reflecting the strengthening of private consumption, turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles rose in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted). Stronger consumption translated into higher sales of cars, other durable and semi-durable goods, and food products. Sales of new cars to natural persons increased more strongly in the first quarter of 2015, while sales to legal entities, having grown in the last two years, declined (seasonally adjusted).4 Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles rose for the sixth consecutive quarter and was almost a tenth higher year-on-year. The stronger consumption of durable and semi-durable goods is also reflected in higher sales of non-food products, particularly computer and telecommunication devices, books and sports equipment, toys, furniture, household appliances, and audio and video recordings. Turnover also rose for the second quarter in a row in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products, while falling in the sale of automotive fuels. Total turnover in retail trade was slightly higher than a year earlier. Figure 11: Turnover in retail trade Figure 12: Turnover in trade sectors - Retail trade, real - Sale of automotive fuels - Sale of food, beverages and tobacco products ----Sale of non-food products O O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. After falling at the end of 2014, turnover in wholesale trade rose in the first quarter of 2015. It has stagnated for a year and a half, with small fluctuations, which are also related to activity in manufacturing and construction. In the first quarter of 2015, nominal turnover in market services (excluding distributive trades)5 increased strongly again (seasonally adjusted) and was higher year-on-year in all main services. In most activities it rose slightly more than 3% at the quarterly level (slightly less only in transport services). In transport services, it remained the 4 Year-on-year, the sale to natural persons rose by 12.8%; the sale to natural persons via leasing was also up, by 25.9%. The sale to legal entities was also higher year-on-year. 5 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. ----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. O O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. highest by volume and also the highest relative to the pre-crisis period among all market services. In information and communication services, turnover rose particularly in computer programming and other information service activities.6 Turnover continued to expand in accommodation and food service activities, where it was much larger than in 2014 due to more overnights stays and a good winter season. In professional and technical services, we can highlight strong growth in legal accounting and advertising services and relatively low growth in architectural services. The largest year-on-year increase was seen in administrative and support service activities, where turnover in employment services rose by Figure 13: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) ----Communications (J) ----Professional and technical (M) -Administrative and support service activities (N) ----Accommodation and food service activities (I) . 100 ■Ö 95 '■TD 90 S3 80 75 a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 6 News agency activities, web portals. 115 85 Box 2: Agricultural output in 2014 After two relatively poor harvests, agricultural output rose in 2014 but remained lower than in 2011. The harvest of agricultural products, which declined significantly in 2012 and 2013, was somewhat more favourable in 2014. The total volume rose by 8.8%, which was not enough to reach the level of 2011. In 2014 crop output rose by 15.5%, after the droughts in 2012 and 2013. Higher output was recorded across all product groups, particularly cereals, potato and industrial plants. Animal output, which has been on a downward trend for a long period, also rose slightly last year, by 1.6%. In 2014 the volume of agricultural output increased more than on average in other countries of the EU, but the gap with the EU remains relatively wide. In the EU overall, agricultural output rose for the second consecutive year in 2014, by 3.1%, which is less than in Slovenia (by 5.7 percentage points), owing to more modest growth in crop output. In the preceding years, the movements in the EU as a whole were much more favourable. Last year's volume was therefore 8.7% higher relative to 2000, while in Slovenia it was 1.2% lower. Slovenia lagged behind the EU particularly in animal output, while crop output fluctuated significantly under the impact of weather conditions, which was also reflected in the fluctuations of the total agricultural output. In the neighbouring countries, the total agricultural output was more volatile only in Hungary, but this country also has a larger share of crop output in total output. Figure 14: Agricultural output volume and structure, Slovenia -Agricultural output, total -Crop output, total ----Animal output, total 130 125 120 115 5? IT 110 o 5? 105 ■D 100 95 90 85 80 ^ ^ CD CD CD CD CD CD Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. more than 50%. This also reflects increased employment through employment agencies.7 Confidence in the economy, which is higher than in the second half of last year, did not change significantly in the last three months. It improved slightly again in service activities and among consumers. Confidence in retail trade was much higher than in the previous month and similar to that in the first two months. Confidence in the construction sector, having stagnated since mid-2014, deteriorated slightly. In the manufacturing sector, confidence was lower than in the previous month and the same at the beginning of the year. 7 The increase in turnover is not only the result of enterprises being more active, but rather of the amendments to the Labour Market Regulation Act, as more and more enterprises register the provision of temporary manpower as their main activity (SURS; First release, Turnover from the sale of services, 31 March 2015). Similarly, but with slightly different dynamics, the number of employed persons in employment activities also rose in 2014, from just over 6,000 to almost 13,000. Figure 15: Agricultural output volume, Slovenia, EU average and the neighbouring countries -EU - 27 ----Italy Slovenia ----Austria CNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrN Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: Croatia -2006=100. Figure 16: Business trends - Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Construction -Manufacturing -Service activ. ----Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market In the first quarter, the number of employed persons8 continued to increase (0.4% seasonally adjusted, 1.8% year-on-year). The number of employed persons has been rising since the beginning of last year.9 In the first quarter, it was up year-on-year in most private sector activities, particularly in the sectors of manufacturing, transportation and storage, and accommodation and food services activities, where indicators of activity were also higher year-on-year. The largest increase was recorded in employment activities10 that provide labour to other sectors. The number of employed persons also rose in public services, except public administration, Figure 17: Employed persons by activity -Employed persons according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) ^td 790 <ü c (D 780 fO 770 CD 760 un 750 740 "0 O 730 E 720 z —V \ \ s 180 170 150 120 100 Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. 8 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons except farmers. 9 As a result of the inflow of unemployed persons, including those who have not yet been active on the labour market, and foreigners. 10 In the first quarter of 2015, the number of persons employed in employment activities was up 5,646 year-on-year, while the total number of employed persons was up 13,862. defence and compulsory social security. Employment according to the national accounts statistics was also slightly higher relative to the previous quarter (0.2%, seasonally adjusted). According to data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the number of employed persons remained unchanged (seasonally adjusted), while the number of employees was up year-on-year (by 1.4%). After declining for a long period, in May the number of registered unemployed remained similar to that in the previous month, seasonally adjusted. This was attributable to a slightly smaller outflow into employment, which had been above average in the preceding months. At the end of May, 112,385 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.1% fewer than in the same period of 2014. In the first five months of 2015, the inflow into the unemployment register was smaller than in the same period of 2015 mainly due to a smaller number of those who lost their jobs for business reasons or due to bankruptcies of Table 5: Indicators of labour market trends In % 2014 III 15/ II 15 III 15/ III 14 I-III 15/ I-III 14 Persons in formal employment2 0.5 0.31 1.9 1.8 Registered unemployed 0.2 -1.01 -6.8 -5.5 Average nominal gross wage 1.1 0.41 1.6 0.5 - private sector 1.4 0.61 1.5 0.1 - public sector 0.9 0.71 1.9 1.3 -of which general government 0.6 0.21 1.2 1.2 2014 III 14 II 15 III 15 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 13.1 12.4 12.5 13.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,540.25 1,526.36 1,515.98 1,550.33 Private sector (in EUR) 1,424.32 1,418.26 1,401.51 1,439.16 Public sector (in EUR) 1,757.29 1,725.59 1,729.92 1,758.15 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,726.43 1,708.54 1,718.98 1,728.56 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. Table 4: Employed persons by activity Number in '000 Change in number 2014 III 15 II 15 III 14 III 15/ III 14 I-III 15/I-III 14 Manufacturing 178.3 179.1 178.8 177.5 1,585 1,480 Construction 54.0 53.2 51.3 52.6 577 318 Market services 339.0 345.2 343.2 334.7 10,510 10,373 -of which: Employment activities 10.6 13.2 13.0 8.1 5,060 5,646 Public services 171.0 172.0 171.6 170.9 1,103 1,024 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 48.8 48.2 48.1 48.9 -698 -651 Education 66.0 66.9 66.7 66.3 624 643 Human health and social work activities 56.2 57.0 56.7 55.8 1,177 1,032 Other1 55.5 52.9 52.5 51.8 1,037 667 Total 797.8 802.5 797.4 787.7 14,812 13,862 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1Agriculture and hunting, forestry, fishing; mining; electricity, gas and steam supply; water supply, sewerage, waste-management and remediation activities companies. There were also fewer first-time jobseekers, most of whom are young.11 The outflow from the register maintained the high level from 2014, but the outflow into employment was somewhat smaller, largely as fewer people were included in public works. According to LFS data, unemployment dropped further in the first quarter of 2015 (by 2.8%, seasonally adjusted); the survey-based unemployment rate was also slightly lower (9.3%, seasonally adjusted). Figure 18: Employed according to SRE and registered unemployed Q1 2014 ■Q2 2014 BQB 2014 ■Q4 2014 ■Q1 2015 Figure 19: Average gross earnings per employee -Gross earnings per empoloyee -1.0 Manufacturing Construction Market services Public services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In the first quarter, average gross earnings per employee rose further (0.2%, seasonally adjusted). In contrast to previous quarters, the increase was due only to higher earnings in the public sector.12 Private sector gross earnings dropped slightly, despite the strong increase in March. In the first quarter, the year-on-year growth of average gross earnings slowed in both sectors, but significantly more in the private sector where it nevertheless barely exceeded the level of 2014 (0.1%). A breakdown by private sector activity indicates lower year-on-year growth (or a deeper decline) in most activities. In industry13 gross earnings were 1.4% higher year-on-year, while in market services14 they were 0.1% lower (in the same period of 2014, they were 3.7% and 0.5% higher, respectively). In the public sector they increased by 1.3%, mainly on the back of last year's payments of the suspended promotions of public servants. 11 This is also reflected in a notable decline in the number of unemployed in the 15-29 age group; in the first five months of 2015, unemployment in this age group was down 3,796 year-on-year, while total unemployment was down 7,481. 12 Similar to 2014, they rose slightly again in the general government sector and public corporations. 13 Activities B-E. 14 Activities G-N; R-S. ----Private sector -Public sector ---- of which, general government sector ------- - of which, public corporations O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Prices The continuation of year-on-year deflation (-0.5%) was mainly attributable to the falling energy prices, but their decline was mitigated by somewhat higher services prices. In May consumer prices were down year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month. Deflation is still mainly due to external factors (lower oil prices year-on-year) reflected in falling prices of energy. The latter contributed 0.8 percentage points on average to the year-on-year price decline in the first five months (-0.5%); among other price groups, services prices rose the most (a contribution of 0.4 percentage points). Food price growth remains modest, resulting primarily from higher prices of unprocessed food. The price movements in previous quarters were, alongside external factors, also impacted Figure 20: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation ^HOther ^«Services ^HFuels and energy ^HFood Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. by relatively modest domestic demand, which was reflected particularly in year-on-year declines in prices of durable and semi-durable goods. Core inflation, which excludes the impact of external factors, nevertheless remains positive and comparable to that in the euro area. For the first time in five months, euro area recorded inflation in May (0.3%). The modest year-on-year price growth reflected higher prices of services and unprocessed food (0.6 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively). As oil prices were down year-on-year, the contribution of energy prices was negative (-0.5 percentage points). Figure 21: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area -Slovenia HICP ----Slovenia HICP - core inflation -Euro area HICP ----Euro area HICP - core inflation 4.0 3.5 3.0 ^^ 2.5 2.0 1.5 fO ^1.0 ,<2 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Source: Eurostat. Industrial producer prices on the domestic market remained unchanged in April, year-on-year, while prices on foreign markets rose substantially (1.8%). Domestic price movements were impacted primarily by further price rises in the manufacture of metals and metal products (3.0%) and ICT and electrical equipment (3.1%), and lower prices in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry (-1.7%). On foreign markets, the year-on-year growth strengthened by 1 percentage point relative to the previous month particularly owing to higher prices of products sold outside the euro area. The stronger growth is mainly attributable to the depreciation of the euro and higher prices particularly in the manufacture of metals and metal products (8.3%) and in the pharmaceutical and chemical industry (3.8%). After a long period of decline, import prices were up in April (0.5%). With oil prices falling more slowly year-on-year, their modest growth was mainly impacted by a further strengthening of price growth in the metal industry (7.3%) and ICT and electrical equipment manufacturing (7.9%). Growth continued to be dragged down by lower prices in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry (-2.3%) and in the manufacture of transport equipment (-1.2%). Figure 22: Industrial producer prices and import prices -PPI (domestic market) ---Import prices -PPI (foreign market) 12 Table 6: Consumer price growth, in % 2014 IV 15/III 15 IV 15/IV 14 Total 0.2 0.1 -0.7 Food -1.0 0.5 0.8 Fuels and energy -4.1 -0.4 -6.3 Services 2.8 -0.6 0.6 Other1 0.2 0.7 -0.4 Total excluding food and energy 1.3 0.1 0.1 Core inflation - trimmean2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Administered prices -2.6 -0.5 -7.4 Tax impact - contribution in percentage points. 0.4 0.0 0.2 Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD.Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. In April price competitiveness continued to improve under the impact of the depreciation of the exchange rate of the euro, but the improvement was one of the smallest in the euro area. The year-on-year decline in the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative15 HICP strengthened in April (-4.4%) due to a larger decline in the exchange rate of the euro, particularly against the non-EU currencies.16 The impact of the decline in relative prices on price competitiveness was smaller and similar to previous months. In the first four months, Slovenia was in the group of euro area countries with smaller year-on-year gains in price competitiveness. Given the geographical structure of Slovenia's external trade,17 the positive effects of the depreciation of the euro were relatively smaller. 15 Slovenian prices relative to the trading partners. 16 The US dollar (-22.0%), Chinese juan (-22.9%), South Korean won (Swiss franc (-14.8%) and Japanese yen (-9.0%). 17 I.e. an above-average share of trade with the euro area. Source: SURS. Figure 23: Real effective exchange rates deflated by the HICP, euro area countries, January-April 2015 ■ NEER BHICP »REER HICP 2 Figure 24: Components of the current account of the balance of payments Merchandise trade Services trade ■ Primary income Secondary income -Current account 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. a a a a Source: BoS; calculated by IMAD. Balance of payments At the beginning of 2015, the current account surplus widened year-on-year. The main reason was further growth in the surplus in external trade, which this year is mainly due to the better terms of trade. The deficits in primary and secondary income were up year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the surplus in external trade increased further due to a larger surplus in merchandise and services trade.The higher nominal balance in external trade was mainly due to the better terms of trade.18 As exports increased at the same rate as imports in real terms, the contribution of quantity factors was less pronounced. The wider surplus in merchandise trade was mainly the result of nominal growth in exports to EU markets, while exports to non-EU countries continued to decline. The surplus in services trade was also up, primarily due to lower imports of construction and business services in year-on-year terms (the lower imports of business services were also due to last year's strong base related to the payments of the banks' asset quality review). The surpluses in trade in travel and transport services widened, the latter due to the favourable trade in transport services (particularly railway, air and road transport). The net inflow of travel was higher, reflecting relatively faster growth in revenue from non-resident than resident travel. In the first quarter, the deficit of primary income widened chiefly due to the net outflows of other primary income. 18 The terms of trade, which have been improving since the second quarter of 2013, are increasing the purchasing power of exports of Slovenian companies, which are lowering operating costs due to the decline in import prices. In the first quarter, the terms of trade improved by 1.3%, primarily owing to lower euro prices of imported manufactured goods, raw materials and energy. These were mainly attributable to the inflows of EU funds, which were lower than in the same period of 2014. The net outflows of capital income also continued. As a result of the borrowing in previous years, net interest payments of the government sector increased further. On the other hand, the private sector received higher income from financial assets due to the deleveraging of commercial banks and higher investments of other financial corporations. The Bank of Slovenia recorded net interest receipts, as its financial assets significantly exceeded its liabilities to the Eurosystem. The deficit in secondary income widened slightly, mainly as a result of lower general government current transfers. Figure 25: Net interest income by sector ■ Government sector I Private sector ■ Bank of Slovenia -Total -150 -200 ....... a a a Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Balance of payments I-III 15, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance I-III 14 Current account 7,567.0 7,158.2 408.8 337.7 Goods 5,861.4 5,497.1 364.3 297.5 Services 1,258.4 847.4 411.0 320.5 Primary income 275.4 467.4 -192.0 -114.8 Secondary income 171.8 346.3 -174.5 -165.5 Capital account 139.4 105.6 33.7 -0.2 Gross acquisitions/disposals of non-produced non-financial assets 44.6 35.7 8.9 6.0 Capital transfers 94.8 69.9 24.9 -6.2 Financial account 346.7 1,125.0 778.3 333.0 Direct investment 392.4 39.2 -353.2 -81.4 Portfolio investment -287.2 337.5 624.7 -3,096.8 Financial derivatives -17.5 -1.1 16.5 -2.0 Other investment 259.0 769.6 510.5 3,355.7 Assets 0.0 769.6 769.6 1,712.7 Liabilities 259.0 0.0 -259.0 -1,643.1 Reserve assets 0.0 -20.2 -20.2 157.5 Net errors and omissions 0.0 335.7 335.7 -4.6 Source: BoS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. In the first quarter, international financial transactions19 recorded a net outflow again, at EUR 798.4 m. The net outflows of other investment and portfolio investment continued; direct investment registered a net increase in net external liabilities. The net outflow in the first quarter mainly reflected increased investment in securities and deposits in accounts abroad. Figure 26: Financial transactions of the balance of payments 4,000 3,000 2,000 £ 1,000 cc 3 J^ 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 ■ Direct investment ■ Financial derivatives -Net financial flow ■ Portfolio investment ■ Other investment llll a a a a Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. The net outflow of portfolio investment amounted to EUR 624.7 m. Other financial corporations20 were buying equity and long-term debt securities, which is related to high yields on international financial markets. The government sector and commercial banks repaid part of their liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. Other investment registered a net outflow of EUR 510.5 m. Enterprises strengthened short-term trade crediting, which is related to growing exports of goods and services; households and other financial corporations increased their deposits in accounts abroad. Commercial banks continued to repay their debts abroad, but in lower amounts than in the same period last year. Direct investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 353.2 m as a result of inward foreign direct investment. The inflow was considerably larger than in the same period of 2014 and consisted mainly of equity capital. Outward foreign direct investment remained modest. Financial markets The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors continues to decline.21 In the first four months of 2015, it was down by almost EUR 240 m. The decrease was mainly attributable to debt repayments by enterprises and NFIs and partly (by around EUR 45 m) to a decline in government loans. Household borrowing increased. Banks continued to reduce liabilities abroad. Growth in household deposits at domestic banks is slowing, also as households are looking for alternative investments. The quality of banks' assets is still improving gradually while the creation of additional provisions and impairments is easing. Household loans rose by EUR 63.5 m in the first four months of this year. The increase was related primarily to January's appreciation of the Swiss franc,22 as in the other three months the volume of household loans was mainly falling. In the first four months of 2015, the decline in consumer loans (EUR 30 m) doubled relative to the same period of 2014, while the fall in loans for other purposes slowed considerably. Since January, only the volume of household loans in foreign currency has been falling, owing to the accelerated conversion to euro loans. Amid a relatively stable exchange rate of the Swiss franc, foreign currency loans shrank by almost EUR 90 m in the last three months, while euro loans rose by more than EUR 70 m. Corporate deleveraging at home and abroad is slowing, while NFI deleveraging is increasing. In the first four months, the volume of corporate and NFI loans at domestic banks fell by around EUR 260 m, which is 2.1% less than in the comparable period of 2014: within 9 Excluding reserves. 20 Particularly investment and pension funds and insurance companies. 21 In loan movements in the first two months of 2015, the change in volume as at 30 April 2015 relative to 31 December 2014 is shown. 22 Because of which foreign currency loans rose be more than EUR 110 m, according to our estimate. that, corporate repayments totalled around EUR 135 m, which is almost two thirds less than in the same period of 2014. NFI net repayments amounted to EUR 120 m, in contrast to the comparable period last year, when NFIs recorded growth in the volume of loans. After recording net borrowing abroad in the first two months of 2015, enterprises and NFIs were making large net repayments of foreign loans at the end of the first quarter. In March alone, the net outflow of foreign corporate and NFI loans exceeded EUR 370 m, almost three quarters of the amount being long-term net repayments by NFIs. In the first quarter, net repayments of corporate and NFI foreign loans amounted to around EUR 320 m, almost twice as much as in the same period of 2014. Within that, corporate net repayments totalled around EUR 25 m, three quarters less than in the first quarter of 2014. In March the gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates23 widened slightly, to 145 basis points. Figure 27: Changes in domestic bank loans to households, enterprises and NFIs and the government ■ Households «Enterprises and NFIs ■ Government ♦Total 200 -200 -400 -800 m Jan-Apr Jan-Apr Jan-Apr Jan-Apr Jan-Apr 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BoS; calculationy by IMAD. Bank deleveraging abroad is fairly even this year, hovering between EUR 120 m and EUR 125 m at the monthly level in the first three months. In the first quarter, net repayments of foreign liabilities amounted to EUR 370 m, approximately 5% less than in the first quarter of 2014. At the end of the first quarter, liabilities to foreign banks dropped to EUR 4.7 bn, accounting for 10.9% of the banks' total assets. Growth in household deposits is rapidly slowing this year, and in April deposits even declined month-on-month. In the first four months of this year, their volume rose by EUR 127 m, by around a half less than in the same period of 2014. We estimate that this is also a consequence of low interest rates, which have declined substantially since 2013 and are already significantly below the euro area average on short-term deposits and just above the euro area average on long-term deposits. Households have already started 23 Interest rates on loans of over EUR 1 m with a variable, or up to one year with a fixed initial interest rate. Figure 28: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of domestic banks Long-term loans ■ Short-term loans «Deposits ■ Notes »Total 400 200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Jan-Feb Jan-Feb 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BoS. to move savings to alternative investments, which is also confirmed by the high inflows to mutual funds, which amounted to almost EUR 110 m in the first four months, approximately three times as much as in 2014 as a whole. Only overnight deposits at banks continue to increase, having risen by almost EUR 540. Government deposits at domestic banks rose by EUR 500 m in the first four months of this year. The increase is mainly due to the high inflows in April, when the government transferred funds from the account with the central bank. The quality of banks' assets continues to improve. At the end of the first quarter, the share of arrears of more than Figure 29: Creation of impairments and provisions and the proportion of arrears of more than 90 days in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments -Share of arrears of over 90 days (right axis) 22 20 18 16 14 8 6 4 2 0 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. 0 -200 0 Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 14 30. IV 15 30. IV 15/31. III 15 30. IV 15/31. XII 14 30. IV 15/30. IV 14 Loans total 22,860.9 22,622.7 -0.9 -1.0 -12.4 Enterprises and NFI 12,278.2 12,020.9 -1.6 -2.1 -21.6 Government 1,820.3 1,775.8 0.1 -2.4 7.1 Households 8,762.4 8,826.0 -0.1 0.7 -0.3 Consumer credits 2,104.1 2,074.5 -0.3 -1.4 -5.7 Lending for house purchase 5,348.0 5,444.8 -0.2 1.8 2.9 Other lending 1,310.4 1,306.7 0.5 -0.3 -3.7 Bank deposits total 15,355.6 15,482.5 -0.7 0.8 4.3 Overnight deposits 7,373.6 7,911.8 0.5 7.3 19.1 Short-term deposits 3,272.5 2,982.7 -5.6 -8.9 -17.8 Long-term deposits 4,704.9 4,579.6 0.8 -2.7 0.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 4.6 8.3 2.4 81.3 118.2 Mutual funds 2,150.7 2,489.8 1.4 15.8 31.8 Government bank deposits, total 1,909.4 2,392.4 47.2 25.3 23.4 Overnight deposits 24.6 461.0 358.1 1,774.4 7.4 Short-term deposits 860.6 582.1 77.0 -32.4 -46.0 Long-term deposits 955.2 1,265.9 12.3 32.5 214.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 69.0 83.5 22.5 20.9 190.9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions. 90 days totalled 11.4%.24 Their volume amounted to EUR 4.2 bn, which is EUR 250 less than at the end of 2014. The decline was due mainly to the further fall in arrears of more than 90 days against non-residents, and partly to the slightly lower volume of non-performing claims against domestic enterprises. The gradual improvement in the quality of banks' assets is also reflected in the creation of provisions and impairments in the Slovenian banking system, which amounted to EUR 51.5 m in the first quarter, which is around 40% less than in the same period of 2014. Public finance In the first quarter, the general government deficit25 totalled EUR 653.9 m, which is similar to the same period of 2014. Both general government revenue and expenditure were at almost the same level as in the first quarter of 2014. Expenditure excluding interest payments was down year-on-year (by EUR 48 m or 1.3%); the primary budget deficit26 (EUR 159.2 m) was thus a quarter lower. General government revenue in the first quarter was similar to that in the same period last year. The shortfall in non-tax revenue (-39.4%) owing to the lower surplus from the treasury single account management paid into the state budget27 was offset by higher tax revenues (3.8%) 24 10% excluding Probanka d.d. and Factor banka d.d. 25 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 26 The primary budget balance does not take into account revenue and expenditure from interest. 27 The surplus from the treasury single account management in 2014 (paid Figure 30: Budget balance and primary budget balance I Budget balance ■ Primary budget balance -200 _ -800 c ü-1,000 -1,200 -1,400 -1,600 -1,800 1 n u -656.1 -653.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-Mar Jan-Mar 2014 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculation by IMAD. and social contributions (2.7%). The year-on-year growth in tax revenues arises from higher revenues from value added tax, excise duties and compensation for the use of building ground. The higher revenue from VAT is related to the strengthening of private consumption and, party, the improvement in tax compliance. Growth in revenue from excise duties mainly stems from the year-on-year increase in excise duty rates, while higher revenue from into the state budget in the first quarter of this year) was smaller than that in 2013 (paid into the state budget in the first quarter of 2014) mainly due the early release of deposits (and the receipt of interest) in 2013. 0 -400 -600 Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-III 2014 I-III 2015 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Growth, in % Contribution to growth, perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 1.3 0.1 -1.8 5.2 6.3 3.633.80 0 0 TAX REVENUES* 4.3 -0.8 -4.5 5.3 9.6 1.912.90 3.8 1.9 Personal income tax 0.7 1.1 -10.1 2.5 3.3 501 1.5 0.2 Corporate income tax 48.8 -13.6 -54 76.6 4.4 101 -2.2 -0.1 Taxes on immovable property 1.4 8.7 7.1 -9.4 -58.3 17 164.3 0.3 Value added tax 1.8 -2.9 4.3 4.1 13.6 749.9 5.6 1.1 Excise duties 1.6 6.7 -4.5 0 6.8 345.4 7.8 0.7 SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS 0.6 -0.4 -2.2 2.8 3.1 1.339.50 2.7 1.0 NON-TAX REVENUES -10.2 10.1 8.4 19.9 10.6 159.3 -39.4 -2.9 RECEIPTS FROM THE EU BUDGET 12.5 3.7 11.0 10.9 -0.6 207.7 -1.0 -0.1 OTHER REVENUES (capital and transferred revenues, donations) -56.5 -4.7 23.5 -50.9 -40.6 14.4 0.6 0 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Table 10: Consolidated general government expenditure 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-III 2014 I-III 2015 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Growth, in % Contribution to growth, perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE -0.9 -2.5 1.0 2.9 3.7 4.287.60 -0.1 -0.1 CURRENT EXPENDITURE -0.5 -1.6 0.4 3.0 4.4 1.970.10 2.4 1.1 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures -0.8 -4.0 -3.0 -0.2 1.2 926.2 0.7 0.2 Expenditure on goods and services -2.7 -2.9 -5.7 -0.3 -4.9 500.4 -5.9 -0.7 Interest payments 7.9 23 29.7 30.6 41.6 497.2 10.1 1.1 Reserves 56.1 -12.2 119.8 -28.4 -63.5 46.2 125 0.6 CURRENT TRANSFERS 2.5 -1.7 -0.2 -1.0 1.8 1.933.20 -2.6 -1.2 Of which: Transfers to individuals and households 4.1 -2.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.9 1.564.10 0.1 0.1 INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE -18.2 -11.5 9.4 26.9 19.3 213.2 -2.9 -0.2 PAYMENTS TO THE EU BUDGET 2.1 -3.7 9.0 -5.3 0.5 171.1 5.2 0.2 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. compensation for the use of building ground reflects the deferment of collection of the tax for 2014 to the first months of this year. Growth in revenue from social security contributions arises from the expansion of the contribution base28 and the improvement in the labour market situation. After being lower in the first two months, general government expenditure strengthened in March; in the first quarter, it thus remained almost unchanged relative to the same period of 2014. Current expenditure and payments into the EU budget were higher (2.4% and 5.2%, respectively), while investment expenditure was lower (-2.9%). Higher current expenditure is attributable to the still rising interest payments, and partly to higher reserves29 and the wage bill (including employers' contributions); expenditure on goods and services was lower. Current transfers were also down (-2.6%), which is mainly explained by the lower transfers to social security funds due to the (too) high transfers recorded in March 2014 (which was followed by a negative correction30 in April). Transfers to individuals and households were slightly higher year-on-year. Slovenia's net budgetary position relative to the EU budget was positive in April (EUR 72.1 m); in the first four months, it was similar to that in the same period last year. In April receipts to the state budget amounted to EUR 106.8 m, while payments to the EU totalled EUR 34.7 m. In the first four months of 2015, the net budgetary position 28 Since 1 January 2015, full contributions for pension and disability insurance and employers'contributions for health insurance are to be paid on student work. On 1 February 2014, the contributions for compulsory health insurance for some forms of individual or other independent work (e.g. via work and copyright contracts) were raised. 29 The increase in reserves is attributable to the establishment of the water fund and the climate change fund. 30 In recording the transfers from the PDII budget to the HII budget, discrepancies in the monthly allocation of cash flows by accounts may occasionally occur. The transfers to social security funds recorded in March 2014 were thus too high, so that a negative correction had to be made in April; on the revenue side a similar discrepancy occurred in the category of other taxes. The transfers to social security funds in the first quarter therefore recorded a strong year-on-year decline. We estimate that these discrepancies do not have any significant impact on the recorded budget deficit. Box 3: Absorption of cohesion funds in the programming period 2007-2013 In the 2007-2013 programming period Slovenia absorbed approximately 85% of the available EU funds for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy. As expected, the absorption of funds for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy accelerated in the second half of 2014 and also continued at the beginning of 2015. In the past year, EUR 772 m in grants has been paid, of which EUR 82 m in the first quarter of 2015, which is slightly less than in the previous three quarters. This year the most funds were received for the OP ETID, the operational programme which has the lowest absorption rate. Since the beginning of the programming period, Slovenia paid almost EUR 3.5 bn from the state budget (85.0% of the allocated funds)1 for all three operational programmes together (OP SRDP, OP HRD, OP ETID)2); reimbursements3to the state budget amounted to EUR 3.2 bn (78.4% of the allocated funds). In the total period, the highest absorption rate was recorded by the OP SRDP and the lowest by Cohesion policy funds earmarked for the OP ETID. Figure 31: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2007-2013 period, as at 31 March 2015 ■ Allocated funds ■ Signed contracts ■ Payments to beneficiaries ■ Certified claims for reimbursement ■ Delays ■ Absorption relative to financial allocation for 2007-2013 (in %) E 1200 OP SRDP OP HRD OP ETID Source: Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy (GODC). For Slovenia to be able to absorb all foreseen EU funds by the end of the programming period, additional appropriations were made for all operational programmes. They are intended for contingency, less risky, projects whose implementation does not pose a major risk and could replace the projects that are not being implemented.4 The highest percentage of additional funds with regard to the available funding was earmarked for the OP ETID (16%), which is the operational programme with the lowest realisation (only 72.6% in payments to beneficiaries and 65.4% in reimbursements to the state budget). The lowest realisation of payments from the state budget was recorded by projects in the area of municipal waste (33.2% of the allocated funds) and railway infrastructure (55.2%). Within these development priorities, a portion of OP ETID funds was also reallocated to other projects. The additional appropriations for the OP SRDP5 and the OP HRD were lower, as in these operational programmes, the shares of payments to beneficiaries and reimbursements to the state budget are significantly higher. According to the Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy,6 additional claims for reimbursement are expected to total EUR 500.8 m in 2015 and 2016. In the past year, Slovenia has adopted several measures to accelerate the absorption of the remaining funds in the 20072013 programming period. To make the absorption more efficient, operational programmes have been modified with a view of redistributing the non-allocated funds to projects where they are more needed and where they can be more easily absorbed. The risky projects are more closely monitored and delays in the reimbursement of EU funds have been reduced. The main objective of these measures is for Slovenia to close the programming period without losing EU funds, as according to the n+3/n+2 rule, 2015 is the final year of this programming period. To reach 100% absorption, Slovenia still has to receive around EUR 622 m from the budget, of which EUR 483 m for OP ETID projects. Broken down by statistical regions,7 individual regions received around two thirds of all cohesion policy funds. The rest was paid to Slovenia as a single region, particularly under the OP SRDP and the OP HRD. The highest absorption rate with regard to the planned funds is recorded by the Zasavska (130.3%) and the lowest by the Goriška statistical region (64.7%). The most grants for infrastructure and environmental projects were paid to beneficiaries in the Pomurska statistical region (EUR 261.9 m, or 24.4% of all OP ETID payments). 1 In the 2007-2013 programming period, Slovenia was committed EUR 4.1 bn for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy. 2 OP SRDP - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials; OP HRD - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development; OP ETID - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development. 3 As a result of unjustified expenditure, financial corrections, the gap between payments from the state budget and submitted claims for reimbursement, and other irregularities, reimbursements from the EU budget are never equal to the payments from the state budget but correspondingly lower. 4 Together with additional appropriations (due to the high level of risk in the implementation), Slovenia was allocated EUR 4.4 bn (107.1% of the available funds). 5 Within the OP SRDP, the most additional funds were committed for projects in the field of competitiveness and research excellence and economic development infrastructure. 6 Based on the action plan, the quarterly report for 2015 and the expected certified claims for reimbursement. 7 As at 31 January 2005. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 relative to the EU budget totalled EUR 108.5 m, similar to the same period of 2014. Slovenia paid EUR 205.8 m to and received EUR 314.3 m from the EU budget. The majority of receipts were funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 140.3 m, of which the highest amount was granted for direct aid to farmers, EUR 131.7 m31). Slovenia received EUR 80.3 m from the Cohesion Fund and Structural Funds, of which EUR 79.5 m came from Structural Funds (EUR 56.5 m from the European Regional Development Fund and EUR 23.0 m from the European Social Fund. Figure 32: Receipts from the EU budget into the state budget ■ Total receipts (Jan-Apr 2015) ■ Total receipts (Jan-Apr 2014) Common Agricultural Policy 100 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 31 This is largely due to the dynamics of payments in agriculture, as each year the highest inflows from direct payments are recorded in March and April. %J a o ■Ö 01 u 31 Ö! V) Effects of changes in labour market regulation In the middle of April 2013, the new Employment Relationship Act (ZDR-1) and the Act Amending the Labour Market Regulation Act (ZUTD-A) entered into force. The amendments to the ZDR-1 were aimed at upgrading the flexicurity system by improving the protection of workers' rights, reducing labour costs, simplifying dismissal procedures for employers and ensuring more efficient supervision and judicial protection. Flexibility was also addressed by some provisions of the ZUTD-A. The main goals of the changes were: (i) reducing labour market segmentation; (ii) increasing flexibility; and (iii) increasing legal protection of employees. In September 2013, the government of the Republic of Slovenia set up a working group to monitor the effects of changes in labour market regulation. Led by IMAD, the working group also includes representatives of the Ministry of Labour, Family, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, Employment Service of Slovenia, Statistical Office of the RS, the Ministry of Finance and external experts. The working group established a set of indicators to monitor the effects of changes and wrote two reports. In the following paragraphs we present the main findings regarding the achievement of goals. Changes in regulation have reduced employment protection as measured by the employment protection legislation index. The index (OECD methodology) is used to compare the flexibility of labour market regulation32 between Figure 33: The values of the index of protection of regular workers against individual dismissal (EPR) in OECD countries that are also EU Member States 3.5 lEPR value -OECD unweighted average Source: OECD. Note: Slovenia-2014 denotes the index value for Slovenia after the adoption of the changes. 32-The index and its sub-indices range between 0 and 6, with higher values indicating more rigid regulation; they measure three areas: (i) employment protection for regular workers against individual dismissal (EPR); (ii) the regulation of temporary contracts (EPT); and (ii) specific requirements for collective dismissal (EPC). Figure 34: New jobs by type of employment contract, seasonally adjusted -New jobs - total -New jobs - permanent 12000 10000 ----New jobs - fixed-term 4000 w2000 Source: SURS (SRE); calculations by IMAD. countries. Its value for Slovenia declined particularly in the area of the protection of regular workers against individual dismissal, where Slovenia now ranks below the OECD average: only five EU Member States that are also members of the OECD have less rigid regulation in this area. Less rigid employment protection is a condition for higher mobility on the labour market. The changes reduced employment protection in order to increase labour market flexibility,33 which was reflected in a lower aversion of employers to hire. According to the analysis, the higher labour market flexibility34 showed particularly in a larger number of new employment contracts and increased hiring of young and older people. The positive developments were also attributable to the more favourable economic situation.35 The increase in employment (new hiring) is evident from data on new employment contracts from the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE). Upon the adoption of legislative changes, the number of new employment contracts rose significantly, largely on account of new permanent contracts. The number of new permanent jobs remained high in 2014. The number of new fixed-term jobs also rose at the beginning of 2014. We estimate that the increase in fixed-term employment despite the more favourable economic situation was due to the (still) weak recovery 33-Labour market flexibility is defined as a set of factors that make it possible for employers to adjust to changing demand. 34 Empirical studies show that a reduction in employment protection and a consequent increase in labour market flexibility generally increase the flows into and out of unemployment, reduce labour market segmentation and, in favourable economic conditions, decrease the unemployment of vulnerable groups, such as the long-term unemployed, young people and women. 35 In favourable times, the reforms towards more flexible legislation, which makes it easier for companies to adjust to the economic situation, positively contribute to the decline in unemployment, as companies can employ workers more rapidly and easily. However, in unfavourable economic conditions, such reforms can increase the outflow from employment into unemployment. 0 Table 11: New jobs by type of employment contract, by age group, in the period from April to December, in individual years* IV-XII 2012 IV-XII 2013 IV-XII 2014 Number Number Year-on-year change Number Year-on-year change Total 15-29 years 35,450 34,361 -3.1 39,921 16.2 30-54 years 58,061 63,305 9.0 67,121 6.0 55 years and more 4,765 4,825 1.3 5,914 22.6 Total 98,276 102,491 4.3 112,956 10.2 Permanent 15-29 years 4,748 6,478 36.4 8,446 30.4 30-54 years 16,180 20,494 26.7 20,103 -1.9 55 years and more 1,195 1,456 21.8 1,411 -3.1 Total 22,123 28,428 28.5 29,960 5.4 Fixed-term 15-29 years 30,702 27,883 -9.2 31,475 12.9 30-54 years 41,881 42,811 2.2 47,018 9.8 55 years and more 3,570 3,369 -5.6 4,503 33.7 Total 76,153 74,063 -2.7 82,996 12.1 Source: SURS (SRE); calculations by IMAD. Note. *The periods from April to December have been selected to make the effects of the reform, which entered into force in March 2013, more comparable year-on-year by excluding the influence of the typical seasonal movements of new jobs within individual years. of economic activity. In 2014 the share of new fixed-term employment contracts thus remained high (72.7% of all new employment contracts).36 After the reform, employment increased particularly among young and older people. After the implementation of legislative changes, the number of new jobs started to rise, but this was also due to the recovery of economic activity. In the period from April to December 2014, more permanent employment contracts were signed, which could mean that employers were less reluctant to hire employees on a permanent basis due to the lower protection of permanent employment. The number of new permanent employment contracts rose particularly among the young (15-29 years), which is in line with the economic theory that less restrictive employment protection reduces barriers to employment for the young. Alongside the lower employment protection, the increased employment of young people was also due to other legislative changes37 and active employment policy measures. The reduction in the protection of older people introduced by the ZDR-1 was also reflected in increased hiring in this population group. While in the period from April to December 2013, the number of newly employed people over 55 was only slightly higher than in the same period of 2012, it rose notably in the same period of 2014. The employment rate of the 55-64 age group also rose in 2014, being 1.9 percentage points higher than in 2013 yet still one of the lowest in the EU. The higher employment rate of older people was also due to the pension reform, which entered into force in 2013, and a gradual increase in temporary or occasional work of pensioners. The legislative changes also worked towards lowering labour market segmentation, which is still a problem. The share of new permanent jobs remains low despite the reform. The strong labour market segmentation has been a pressing problem in Slovenia for a number of years.38 To reduce segmentation, the new ZDR-1 introduced: (i) severance pay for fixed-term contracts concluded for up to one year, in the amount of a fifth of the average monthly wage; (ii) additional restrictions in concluding "chain contracts" with the same employee for the same type of work with a legal definition of the term same work; (iii) restrictions in fixed-term contracts for agency workers; (iv) shorter notice periods for permanent employment contracts; and (v) lower amounts of severance pay for some categories of employed persons. In the first year after the reform, new permanent employment contracts were rising faster than temporary employment contracts, which was reflected in a larger share of permanent jobs in total new jobs. Although in 2014 the share of new fixed-term jobs in total new jobs rose slightly year-on-year amid the uncertain recovery of economic activity, the share of new permanent jobs was higher than in 2012. 36-In 2013 the share of new fixed-term jobs was 73.2%. 37 Under the Act on Intervention Measures in the Field of the Labour Market and Parental Protection, employers who employ an unemployed person under the age of 30 are exempt from the payment of social security contributions for 24 months. 38 Lower labour market segmentation by type of employment can have a significant impact on the adjustment capacity of the labour market in times of lower activity. EC study - Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2014. (2015). Brussels: The European Commission finds that the decline in activity had a smaller impact on employment in countries with open and less segmented labour markets. Figure 35: Share of permanent jobs in new jobs, by age group, in % 30 25 15 Figure 36: Net profit and its main components ^ ■ Net financial profit/loss ■ Net operating profit/loss ♦ Net profit/loss 5,000 Total 15-29 years 30-54 years 55+ years Source: SURS, SRE; calculations by IMAD. Positive signs of the labour market reform have also been seen in the legal protection of workers. The working group finds that the reform improved the Labour Inspectorate's control over the conclusion of fixed-term contracts and the illegal use of other types of work when elements of an employment relationship exist. The year 2014 was also marked by a decline in the use of options that upgrade the legal protection of workers in cases of employers' failure to pay wages and wage compensation. The latter may be related to the recovery of economic activity and hence a lower incidence of such cases. The changes in labour market regulation did contribute towards achieving the goals. However, in the relatively short period since their implementation, mainly short-term effects have been observed, which can be partly attributed to changes in labour market regulation. The effects are otherwise difficult to assess due to the relatively short period since the adoption of the reform, and a further decline in demand for labour in 2013 and its revival in 2014. OECD studies39 also show that the effects of lower employment protection vary with regard to the economic situation. Business results of companies in 2014 The performance of commercial companies improved significantly in 2014. After declining sharply due to the negative financial result and lower operating profit during the crisis, in 2014 the overall net40 profit of companies reached the highest level since 2008 (EUR 887). It was similar to that at the beginning of the previous decade 4,000 3,000 2,000 i 1,000 J 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. Note: *The business result in the accounting period refers to the result of companies' ordinary operating activities (operating result), financing (financial result) and extraordinary activities. As the third component is relatively less important for the overall performance, it is not shown separately in the figure. In 2006 the Slovenian Accounting Standards were changed, but we estimate that the differences are not so great as to completely prevent year-on-year time comparisons (see also the explanations in the introduction in Kmet Zupančič et al, 2007. Data for individual years pertain to commercial companies that were active in a given year, meaning that they are obtained from the balance sheets for the current year. and almost four times below the extremely high level just before the crisis (2007). The improvement was recorded in both main components of the business result. Having recovered only slowly after the strong decline in 2009, the net operating profit rose by a fifth last year and was around a quarter lower than before the crisis. The financial loss also decreased, but remained high. As in previous years, the increase in the operating profit stemmed from the tradable sector, while the business results of the non-tradable sector deteriorated further. The operating profit in the tradable sector41 has been rising in almost the entire period after the strong fall in 2009. With last year's increase, the largest in this period, it reached the level of 2008 for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. In addition to growth in industry and transportation, where the net operating profit has already exceeded that in 2008, last year also saw a significant improvement in distributive trades. Among tradable sector companies, the least favourable developments were observed for companies in accommodation and food service activities, where the negative result deepened slightly in 2014. The operating result in the non-tradable sector turned negative in 2014, for the first time on record. It has been deteriorating ever since the beginning of the crisis, mainly owing to developments in financial intermediation 39 Bouis, R., Causa, O., Demmou, L. Duval, R., Zdzienicka, A. (2012). The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms. OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 949. 4°-A positive difference between the net profit and net loss in the accounting period. 41 The tradable sector includes companies from: A agriculture, forestry and fishing; B-E industry excluding construction; G-I trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities; J information and communication (European Commission, Quarterly report on the euro area, Volume 12 N. 2, 2013) 35 20 10 5 0 (excluding banks and other financial intermediaries42), construction and real estate activities. These are the sectors that experienced a strong contraction of activity during the crisis (measured by sales revenues)43 and also have to deal with substantial financial losses, after the strong growth in the pre-crisis period underpinned by the favourable economic situation in general, rising real estate prices and favourable financial conditions. Figure 37: Net operating profit of companies --Non-tradable sector 3,000 2,500 Figure 38: Sales revenues on the domestic and foreign markets Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. On the side of operating revenues, in 2014 revenue from sales on foreign markets increased further; revenue from sales on the domestic market also rose slightly after declining in previous years. Having increased since 2009, in 2014 the sales on the foreign market thus exceeded the 2008 level by around 18% in nominal terms, while the sales on the domestic market, which last year started to recover, lagged 14% behind. In view of subdued domestic demand, most sectors increased their export orientation during the crisis, but with the recovery of the domestic economy, in 2014 most of the more important sectors in terms of volume also increased their sales at home. The cost pressures on profitability have eased significantly over the past few years. Since the beginning of the crisis the profitability of companies was, alongside weak demand, also negatively impacted by cost pressures. Until 2010 these were mainly a consequence of rising unit labour costs. In the last four years, unit labour costs have been falling and came close to the 2008 level in 2014. Owing to increased commodity prices and the depreciation of the euro, the terms of trade also deteriorated significantly in 2010-2012, as did, in turn, the ratio of costs of goods, material and services to operating revenues. With the fall 42 Banks and other financial intermediaries are not included in the AJPES database of statistical data on companies' performance. 43 These three activities recorded the largest decline in sales revenues in 2008-2014 among all activities. In construction and financial activities, in 2014 sales revenues were around a half lower than in 2008; in real estate by more than a fifth. -Revenues from sales on the foreign market (left axis) - Revenues from sales on the domestic market (rigth axis) 30 28 22 20 60 58 52 J^ 50 Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. Figure 39: Unit labour costs and the costs of goods, material and services per operating revenue -Costs of goods, material and services/operating revenue (left axis) -Labour costs/VA (right axis) 79.0 78.5 78.0 77.5 77.0 76.5 76.0 75.5 75.0 74.5 74.0 / y i / V 64.0 63.5 63.0 62.5 62.0 61.5 61.0 60.5 60.0 59.5 59.0 Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. in global commodity prices in 2013 and 2014, the burden of these costs on the operating revenues declined again. In the structure of the overall business result, financial loss remained relatively high, despite a gradual decline. At EUR 1.4 bn, it was around a third lower than in 2010 when it was highest, but nevertheless remained at the relatively high level from the first years of the crisis (2008-2009). The financial loss, which appeared with the beginning of the crisis, is, on the one hand, attributable to a decline in financial revenues due to the falling value of shares, interests and other investments during the crisis, and, on the other hand, the high financial expenses related to the indebtedness of companies and expenses due to write-offs and impairment. 26 56 24 54 c 18 48 16 46 Since 20'0 financial expenses of companies have been falling; in 20'4 revenue rose slightly for the first time. The bulk of financial expenses are related to write-offs and impairment and expenses from financial liabilities. Both rose significantly with the beginning of the crisis. Expenses from financial liabilities have been mainly falling since 2008. Their largest share, expenses attributable to bank loans, has more than halved since the beginning of the crisis, which is a sign of intensive corporate deleveraging, particularly in the last three years (2012-2014). Fluctuating significantly, write-offs and impairment fell by around 14% from their 2010 peak. Owing to a faster decline in expenses from financial liabilities, they became the largest part of financial expenses in the last two years (2013-2014). Their persistently relatively high level is attributable to the adverse economic situation until 2013. The increase in financial revenues in 2014 mainly stemmed from higher revenues from stakes in other companies and other financial assets related to the improved economic situation. Figure 40: Breakdown of financial expenses and financial revenues Other financial expenses Financial expenses related to impairment and write-offs Financial expenses from financial liabilities -Financial revenues 4,500 Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. Companies continued to deleverage in 20'4. The ratio of debt to total liabilities declined further in 2014 (to 58.1%) and was around 7 percentage points lower than its 2008 peak. Given the strong financial exposure of companies to banks, coupled with the unfavourable situation in the banking system, particularly financial liabilities to banks recorded a strong decline. The deleveraging of companies at banks intensified especially after 2011, reaching its peak with the process of banks' balance sheet repair in 2014. In 2014 the volume of short-term financial liabilities to banks declined the most. Figure 4': Share of debt in total liabilities and the ratio of interest to operating revenue Share of debt in total liabilities (right axis) —•—Interest/operating revenue (left axis) 60 40 10 Source: AJPES (Statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. Social progress index The Social progress Index,44 which was published for the second time in 20'5, ranks Slovenia '9th among the '33 countries surveyed. This is an index that tries to measure social progress by social and environmental indicators, excluding economic indicators. It is composed of three dimensions (basic human needs, foundations of wellbeing and opportunity).45 The top three countries are Norway, Sweden and Switzerland; among the EU Member States, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands also rank high. Slovenia is in 11th place among the 26 EU countries surveyed. The average world performance is best on nutrition, basic medical care and access to basic knowledge, and worst on personal safety and ecosystem sustainability. The average performance on the opportunity dimension is lower than on the other two dimensions, but differs significantly between the components and across countries. The third dimension is based on opinion indicators, which indicate how a country takes care of its human, environmental, cultural and social capital of the first two dimensions, or how successful it is in its preservation and development. This dimension is otherwise very important in terms of research, but the quality and the choice of the included indicators are questionable. 44The Social Progress Index is prepared by the Social Progress Imperative, a non-profit organisation that is financially supported by various companies and foundations (The Rockefeller foundation, Deloitte, itd). The report is available at http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/data/spi. 45 Each dimension is broken down into four components, which together include 52 indicators. In this year's edition 14 indicators were modified, replaced or updated based on other sources, while two were removed. As some indicators are not updated yearly but at longer intervals, the index will become more reliable only when more data are available. 50 30 20 0 Table 12: Composition of the Social Progress Index and detailed results for Slovenia E s 'iS C ta cc E 3 c w R E u xi a SI n a R s Social Progress Index 81.62 19 S Basic human needs 100 92.88 16 Foundations of wellbeing 100 80.77 11 Opportunity 100 71.12 24 Nutrition and basic medical care 100 99.42 11 Access to basic knowledge 100 97.91 21 Personal rights 100 80.95 25 Undernourishment 5 5 3 Adult literacy rate 100 99.7 1 Political rights 1 1 1 Depth of food deficit 0 8 1 Primary school enrolment 100 99.7 31 Freedom of speech 2 1 15 Maternal mortality rate 0 7 20 Lower secondary school enrolment 100 95.1 63 Freedom of assembly/ associations 2 2 1 Child mortality rate (children under 5 years) 0 2.9 4 Upper secondary school enrolment 100 99.3 28 Freedom of movement 4 4 1 Deaths from infectious diseases 0 15.4 7 Gender parity in secondary enrolment 1 0.99 61 Private property rights 100 60 30 Water and sanitation 100 99.16 20 Access to information and communications 100 84.64 24 Personal freedom and choice 100 79.88 20 Access to piped water 100 99.6 18 Mobile telephone subscriptions 100 110 1 Freedom over life choices 100 0.88 24 Rural access to improved water source 100 99.4 31 Internet users 100 72.7 26 Freedom of religion 4 4 1 Access to improved sanitation facilities 100 100 1 Press Freedom Index / 20.4 28 Child marriage 1 0.01 12 Shelter 100 81.01 33 Health and wellness 100 66.92 82 Satisfied demand for contraception 100 77.7 40 Availability of affordable housing 100 0.28 121 Life expectancy 85 80.1 23 Corruption 100 58 29 Access to electricity 100 100 1 Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 0 12.6 31 Tolerance and inclusion 100 64.49 26 Quality of electricity supply 7 6.18 24 Obesity rate 0 27 117 Tolerance to immigrants 100 0.56 73 Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 3 5.53 1 Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 0 43 97 Tolerance to homosexuals 100 0.42 39 Personal safety 100 91.47 9 Suicide rate 0 18.1 119 Discrimination and violence against minorities 10 3.6 12 Homicide rate 1 1 1 Ecosystem sustainability 100 73.99 3 Religious tolerance 4 3 36 Level of violent crime 1 1 1 Greenhouse gas emissions 4 330 4 Community safety net 100 0.9 30 Perceived criminality 1 2 2 Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 0 0.03 10 Access to advanced education 100 59.15 34 Political terror 1 1 1 Biodiversity and habitat 100 100 1 Years of tertiary schooling 2 0.75 30 Traffic deaths 0 7.2 20 Women's average years in school 16 12.9 27 Inequality in the attainment of education 1 0.03 13 Number of globally ranked universities 5 1 54 Source: Social Progress Index. The report classifies the countries into six groups (tiers) in terms of social progress.46 The highest ranking countries are characterised by strong performance on all three dimensions. The top ten countries with very high social progress (except Australia and Canada) are relatively small in terms of population.47 The US and UK are at this group's level on the opportunity dimension, but are ranked in the next group due to lower scores in the other two dimensions, which is explained by the philosophy of greater individualism. Most EU countries included in the report are ranked in the first two groups, while seven are placed lower.48 Slovenia is 11'h among the 26 EU countries covered in the report. The report ranks Slovenia in the group of countries with high social progress, which includes most EU Member States. This group consists of countries that are characterised by broader social safety nets. Together with the Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland, Slovenia belongs to the group of countries that score high in nutrition and basic medical care, but fails to meet the level of health and wellness achieved by other countries. Slovenia performs slightly worse than the other countries in this group particularly on the opportunity dimension. Among Slovenia's weaknesses, the report highlights the tolerance and inclusion component; Slovenia also scores slightly lower than other countries in access to advanced education.49 Slovenia's performance according to the Social Progress Index is similar to last year.50 A slight improvement is recorded in the basic human needs dimension, where Slovenia scores relatively high, and in the opportunity dimension, which is the worst dimension for Slovenia. Slovenia fell in the foundations of wellbeing dimension, where it is otherwise among the best performing countries. It stands out on ecosystem sustainability, where it is third behind Switzerland and Norway, but scores low on health and wellness, a component that includes two of the worst indicators for Slovenia, the suicide rate and the obesity rate. The third worst indicator for Slovenia is availability of affordable housing. On the other hand, Slovenia is still among the top ranking countries on 14 indicators: absence of undernourishment, access to improved sanitation facilities, access to electricity, indoor air pollution attributable deaths, homicide rate, level of violent crime, political terror, mobile telephone subscriptions, biodiversity and habitat, political rights, freedom of assembly/association, freedom of speech, freedom of religion. 46 Very high social progress countries (10), high social progress countries (20), upper middle social progress countries (25), lower middle social progress countries (42), low social progress countries (27) and very low social progress countries (8). 47 Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, New Zealand, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands. 48 Hungary, Latvia, Greece, Lithuania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania. 49 This component includes four indicators: years of tertiary schooling, women's average years in school, inequality in the attainment of education and globally ranked universities. Slovenia lags behind other countries especially on the last indicator. 50 The index value for Slovenia totals 81.62 out of 100 (19'h place among 113 countries); the value for 2014 calculated according to the new methodology is 81.51. Figure 42: Comparison of Slovenia with other EU countries in the first and third group, 2015 ------EU1 group -EU3 group Slovenia Nutrition and basic medical care Water and sanitation Tole and in Personal freedom and choice Person right Shelter Personal safety Access to basic knowledge Access to information communic. Health and wellness Source: Social Progress Index. Note: Among EU countries, data for LU and MT are not available. The first group, very high social progress countries, includes SE, FI, DK and NL. The third group, lower middle social progress countries, comprises GR, LV, LT, HR, HU, BG and RO. This year, the report also analyses the correlation between the SPI, GDP and inequality and poverty, international aid allocation and life satisfaction. The Social Progress Index has been designed to help understand the relationship between social progress and economic development. This is also the purpose of the analysis of the SPI relative to GDP, which is regarded as a complementary social progress indicator in this report. The best performing countries in terms of the SPI also have the lowest inequality, i.e. the lowest Gini coefficient. The report also states that the SPI is a better indicator of social inclusion than the Gini coefficient, as it is more universal and less sensitive to outliers. The basic human needs dimension is highly correlated with GDP - the lower scores on this dimension, the higher inequality of income distribution. The poorest countries are those that also have the highest inequality. The key to changing this situation is a general improvement in access to health care, basic education and personal safety, which are defined as essential needs and the conditions for living healthy lives in the report - and this is impeded by social inequality. According to the World Bank criteria, 73% of poor people live in countries with medium income.51 This is where we see the importance of the SPI, which makes it possible to take greater account of non-economic criteria in allocating international aid. Seeking alternatives, some researchers opt for the life satisfaction indicator, but this is regarded as a less suitable policy tool than the SPI by the authors of the report. All three (SPI, GDP and life satisfaction) are quite correlated in the first two dimensions, while the SPI and life satisfaction are highly correlated in the third dimension (opportunities). 51 Medium income countries are those that have GNI per capital between USD 1,026 and USD 12,475 (http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mic/ overview). In the next years, the SPI is expected to be also used in concrete projects, as it helps understand the correlation between social and economic development. Within the EU, the Directorate-General for Regional Policy will, together with the authors of the report, draw up a proposal for the Social Progress Index at the NUTS II level by October 2015. X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Spring forecast 2015 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.6 -1.0 2.6 2.4 2.0 2.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,220 36,868 36,006 36,144 37,246 38,558 39,474 40,701 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,678 17,960 17,506 17,550 18,065 18,635 19,032 19,583 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,000 21,500 21,600 21,800 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 83 82 82 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.3 -1.8 0.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.1 7.0 0.3 2.6 6.3 5.6 6.2 5.0 Exports of goods 11.9 8.2 0.0 2.8 7.2 6.3 6.7 5.2 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.6 4.2 4.2 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 5.0 -3.9 1.4 4.1 5.2 4.7 5.2 Imports of goods 7.4 6.0 -4.6 2.2 3.8 5.4 4.8 5.3 Imports of services 2.5 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 5.6 4.1 4.3 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million -29 83 954 2,027 2,187 2,266 2,366 2,549 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.7 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 40,838 40,292 41,503 40,205 46,218 47,175* As a per cent share relative to GDP 112.8 109.3 115.3 111.2 124.1 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.137 1.135 1.135 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.0 -0.1 -3.0 -3.9 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.8 As a % of GDP 55.9 55.8 56.2 54.1 52.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 As a % of GDP 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.4 19.3 18.5 18.3 18.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.7 -4.6 -8.9 1.9 4.8 4.8 -2.0 4.0 As a % of GDP 21.2 20.2 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.6 20.1 20.6 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; ^Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; "End March 2015. PRODUCTION 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -1.1 -0.9 1.7 -2.6 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 0.1 2.0 2.7 2.1 5.9 2.8 -2.5 -5.1 1.2 B Mining and quarrying -7.4 1.3 -3.8 6.7 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -1.6 32.9 -9.5 -28.2 1.7 -4.0 -11.0 -13.7 2.4 C Manufacturing -2.3 -1.5 3.7 -3.9 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 2.6 2.7 4.7 5.0 7.0 2.5 -2.7 -5.5 1.1 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 10.5 3.9 -14.2 7.0 1.9 3.2 3.1 -18.3 -10.0 -11.5 -16.1 -2.5 6.1 0.7 -0.9 1.9 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.8 -2.5 19.5 -24.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.8 36.8 40.0 19.8 -3.3 -1.5 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 Buildings -17.3 -20.4 3.8 -40.9 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 6.6 6.5 8.0 -4.5 -5.5 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 Civil engineering -16.6 6.3 26.5 -8.5 -2.6 1.7 27.1 52.4 55.7 25.1 -1.9 0.0 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -2.8 -0.3 2.7 -2.8 -0.1 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 4.3 1.1 3.4 3.2 -3.1 -0.1 -1.4 Transportation and storage 0.0 -0.1 6.2 -2.4 -0.2 0.6 1.6 7.2 6.1 7.0 4.5 2.4 5.4 -3.1 -2.3 0.4 Information and communication activities -2.9 0.4 1.1 -1.8 0.9 1.7 0.6 5.0 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.1 0.0 -0.3 2.8 -0.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities -7.6 -2.1 -1.8 -4.0 -1.2 -3.1 -0.6 -4.7 -2.5 6.6 -5.7 3.4 4.7 -8.2 0.3 -10.1 Administrative and support service activities -4.5 3.7 2.5 -0.4 5.5 3.7 5.4 0.2 -1.6 1.8 10.1 14.5 7.2 3.2 6.2 1.7 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -3.6 -1.0 2.4 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 5.7 2.6 4.9 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.3 Real turnover in retail trade -2.2 -3.7 0.0 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 2.3 -0.8 0.8 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -6.3 4.7 7.2 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.6 8.6 -1.7 12.8 9.0 11.7 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 0.8 -0.2 3.8 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.7 6.2 3.0 6.0 0.1 0.2 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.2 0.3 -0.5 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 -14.0 -3.4 3.9 6.8 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.9 -3.4 -3.5 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -8.1 -7.7 1.6 6.8 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 5.6 2.8 1.4 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 -0.6 -17.4 -1.4 5.6 6.9 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 Accommodation and food service activities -1.1 -1.4 2.1 -6.1 -3.0 0.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 1.2 1.1 7.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 480.4 478.4 506.9 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 113.6 122.8 132.5 138.0 102.5 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -16.9 -13.3 -2.2 -15.2 -14.4 -12.1 -11.3 -8.3 -2.0 -0.1 1.6 4.1 -14.0 -15.6 -13.6 -13.4 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -11 -5 2 -9 -6 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 6 -9 -5 -4 -5 - in construction -41 -22 -11 -30 -23 -18 -16 -14 -10 -10 -10 -11 -26 -23 -21 -22 - in services -12 -12 5 -13 -13 -11 -10 -5 6 6 11 15 -11 -15 -14 -12 - in retail trade 2 2 9 -5 0 8 3 2 7 10 18 18 -7 -8 15 12 Consumer confidence indicator -35 -33 -22 -30 -34 -33 -34 -30 -26 -17 -17 -15 -28 -38 -37 -36 Source of data: SURS. Note: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2013 2014 2015 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 -5.7 0.8 -1.6 -0.4 8.0 -0.8 -2.1 3.1 0.5 -0.3 5.7 4.8 -1.5 4.1 2.3 1.1 3.0 3.3 6.5 7.7 - -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 6.0 74.1 30.2 0.0 -27.3 69.3 17.6 10.1 -18.7 -25.2 20.3 -4.5 -24.1 -52.7 -14.5 -3.4 29.8 -6.7 0.6 -2.2 -0.4 7.7 1.6 0.2 5.7 0.6 -0.3 7.9 6.5 1.0 5.8 4.5 3.3 7.6 4.2 7.6 8.8 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 5.5 -21.6 -19.4 -13.8 -9.7 -4.7 -15.3 -6.0 -15.7 -13.0 -16.2 -13.7 -18.2 -2.8 -1.5 -3.1 - -5.3 -5.9 28.2 31.4 6.8 34.5 28.8 44.6 47.2 45.0 30.4 27.7 27.5 6.7 -1.8 -10.5 4.6 -2.8 3.4 -4.1 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 3.1 0.8 6.2 4.7 8.5 9.8 11.3 -0.2 13.6 15.9 -4.0 -5.1 -12.6 7.0 -0.7 -6.1 -8.6 2.2 -5.5 31.8 41.5 6.3 49.1 41.1 63.0 65.1 60.4 44.6 34.1 32.5 11.6 0.4 -8.7 4.5 -4.1 7.7 -2.3 -2.1 5.0 1.3 0.3 1.9 2.8 2.9 4.7 2.3 2.5 1.3 7.0 3.3 2.7 1.8 -0.6 2.0 0.9 5.2 4.2 - - -1.5 2.8 0.8 1.3 2.8 6.5 5.9 8.9 4.6 6.1 7.6 7.3 3.6 9.8 2.5 2.4 8.9 -1.8 5.6 3.4 1.0 4.4 1.2 -1.9 2.3 5.3 6.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 1.6 2.5 -11.2 11.1 -0.7 0.5 -1.4 -7.2 -6.3 -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 -5.1 17.5 9.8 -4.1 -0.5 -9.0 -7.1 2.1 4.8 3.2 2.0 7.5 6.2 3.6 6.4 0.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -3.7 4.2 -0.7 2.0 8.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 13.8 16.1 - - -3.4 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.8 2.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 -3.2 -2.9 8.4 1.1 7.9 2.9 0.7 4.2 2.0 6.4 6.4 - -4.6 -3.9 -0.9 -1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 3.0 -3.2 -2.8 3.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.2 2.9 0.9 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.4 16.3 8.8 6.9 10.1 1.5 -3.4 -3.0 19.4 5.7 13.6 9.4 4.0 13.9 7.6 12.3 15.3 -4.6 -0.2 2.3 1.8 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.4 5.8 -0.1 3.3 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.6 0.1 -1.4 -6.7 3.4 4.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 7.8 -2.9 4.8 -5.1 -1.3 -4.7 6.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 12.4 2.2 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 -3.6 1.0 -1.3 -7.7 -8.7 -5.8 8.2 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 9.9 1.0 - 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 15.5 -4.9 8.3 -3.8 2.1 -4.2 4.5 -0.7 13.9 4.0 15.7 3.2 - -0.6 1.3 3.9 0.7 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 0.7 4.5 -1.6 3.5 0.2 -0.4 6.9 8.6 5.6 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 42.6 39.4 40.7 48.0 38.8 45.7 47.4 40.9 49.7 34.1 32.1 36.3 - - -11.6 -11.3 -12.4 -10.5 -11.0 -8.7 -8.9 -7.4 -5.3 -0.2 -0.5 1.0 -1.7 0.3 2.3 1.0 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.5 5.1 5.2 -4 -2 -4 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 5 6 2 2 3 2 4 4 5 8 4 6 -16 -16 -17 -15 -17 -15 -17 -10 -16 -5 -8 -7 -12 -11 -9 -11 -10 -12 -10 -11 -15 -15 -10 -12 -12 -7 -10 -5 -6 -4 3 9 7 6 5 7 11 12 11 12 16 16 18 17 4 7 16 -5 -2 9 0 -3 2 17 1 10 9 10 18 22 13 24 20 9 22 18 -33 -31 -37 -34 -32 -29 -31 -29 -31 -25 -22 -17 -21 -13 -13 -20 -17 -14 -17 -14 -12 -11 LABOUR MARKET 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 920.2 913.4 917.9 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 912.9 919.8 917.5 921.3 919.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 810.0 793.6 797.8 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 784.2 799.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 793.0 795.4 796.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.0 38.2 35.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.1 37.5 35.1 32.8 38.7 39.0 39.1 In industry, construction 263.1 252.2 252.4 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 249.0 252.9 254.1 253.8 250.4 251.6 252.6 253.1 Of which: in manufacturing 182.9 177.7 178.3 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 177.3 178.2 178.6 179.2 178.8 177.5 177.7 177.7 in construction 59.8 54.3 54.0 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 51.5 54.6 55.4 54.5 51.8 54.0 54.8 55.2 In services 510.0 503.2 510.0 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 503.5 509.7 511.4 515.5 514.9 502.6 503.8 504.3 Of which: in public administration 50.7 49.1 48.8 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 49.3 49.3 49.4 in education, health-services, social work 120.9 121.0 122.2 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.6 122.4 121.6 123.1 123.3 120.9 121.2 121.3 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 717.0 698.7 703.0 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 703.5 706.1 708.8 704.2 698.2 700.3 701.5 In enterprises and organisations 662.6 647.6 652.6 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 645.2 653.1 654.7 657.2 654.6 647.0 648.7 649.7 By those self-employed 54.5 51.1 50.5 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 50.4 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.1 51.5 51.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 93.0 94.9 94.8 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 90.4 96.1 97.0 95.6 93.8 94.8 95.1 95.0 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.2 119.8 120.1 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 128.8 120.2 114.5 116.9 121.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 Female 52.2 57.4 59.6 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 61.2 59.4 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.3 56.7 56.2 By age: 15 to 29 24.9 28.8 30.4 29.2 27.7 26.7 31.6 33.6 30.5 27.4 30.2 30.0 28.6 27.6 26.8 aged over 50 38.2 38.9 37.3 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 37.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 39.5 39.5 38.9 Primary education or less 33.3 34.2 33.8 36.5 34.1 32.6 33.6 36.4 33.8 32.1 32.8 35.3 35.1 34.0 33.2 For more than 1 year 55.2 55.4 59.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 57.7 60.7 59.9 59.1 59.7 61.1 54.6 54.4 53.9 Those receiving benefits 33.9 33.0 26.6 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 32.7 26.2 23.9 23.7 28.7 35.8 33.9 31.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 12.0 13.1 13.1 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.3 13.0 12.8 Male 11.5 12.5 12.0 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.5 12.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 12.8 12.4 12.1 Female 12.6 13.8 14.3 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.6 13.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.3 6.0 -4.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -9.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.3 19.1 18.5 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 4.2 2.7 3.3 8.4 3.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 Redundancies 90.3 88.7 83.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 17.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 7.1 6.1 5.3 Registered unemployed who found employment 58.3 65.1 74.0 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 20.7 21.4 16.6 15.3 21.8 6.3 6.5 5.3 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 43.1 37.3 33.2 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 9.3 7.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 33.9 30.5 25.1 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.6 32.3 32.0 31.0 As % of labour force 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2013 2014 2015 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 914.4 920.2 919.8 919.4 918.0 916.5 918.1 922.3 922.2 919.4 918.5 919.9 920.6 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 787.7 796.6 800.1 802.1 801.8 801.7 805.5 806.4 806.8 800.0 794.3 797.4 802.5 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 32.0 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.6 35.2 35.1 35.1 32.6 32.7 33.0 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 250.0 252.0 253.3 253.4 253.9 253.7 254.7 255.5 255.5 250.4 249.1 249.9 252.2 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.1 178.4 178.5 179.0 179.4 179.6 178.6 178.5 178.8 179.1 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.6 53.9 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.1 55.7 55.9 55.8 51.9 50.9 51.3 53.2 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 505.7 507.8 509.7 511.4 510.4 510.5 513.2 515.7 516.2 514.5 512.6 514.7 517.3 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.2 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.5 121.3 121.1 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.1 122.6 123.4 123.9 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 696.9 700.8 704.0 705.6 705.1 704.9 708.2 710.9 711.2 704.4 701.0 703.6 708.2 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 647.8 651.0 653.6 654.7 654.1 653.6 656.4 658.6 659.0 654.0 651.8 654.3 657.6 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.3 52.2 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.6 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 90.7 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 97.4 95.5 95.6 95.5 93.3 93.8 94.3 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 126.7 123.6 119.7 117.4 116.2 114.8 112.6 115.9 115.4 119.5 124.3 122.6 118.1 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.3 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.6 57.7 59.9 59.6 59.5 60.9 59.9 59.2 27.0 26.7 26.3 30.8 31.5 32.5 33.9 33.9 33.1 31.9 30.3 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.7 30.4 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.2 29.0 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.9 36.6 35.9 35.7 35.6 36.7 38.1 37.9 37.3 32.9 32.7 32.3 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 34.7 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.1 34.4 36.1 35.9 33.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 56.6 57.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 60.5 60.7 59.9 59.2 59.0 58.9 59.2 59.5 59.6 60.1 61.5 61.0 60.8 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 31.3 27.4 26.0 25.2 24.7 23.8 23.2 23.2 22.4 25.5 29.4 29.4 27.3 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 3.3 -0.5 4.0 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 5.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.8 6.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 6.2 9.8 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 8.5 7.6 7.6 6.3 5.6 4.3 6.7 6.3 5.0 4.0 6.2 6.5 9.0 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.5 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 WAGES EUR m 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q4 14 Feb 15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1540 1535 1550 0.1 -0.2 1.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1495 1489 1509 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 Public service activities (OPQ) 1675 1671 1674 -2.2 -2.3 0.3 -3.6 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 Industry (B-E) 1529 1538 1561 2.5 2.6 3.2 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 Trad. market services (GHI) 1369 1354 1374 0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 Other market services (J-N; R-S) 1686 1672 1693 -0.3 -1.3 -0.3 -1.9 -1.5 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1311 1265 1291 -1.1 0.8 0.7 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.3 2.3 0.5 -0.7 B Mining and quarrying 2128 1966 2007 3.6 -2.0 5.9 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 8.3 10.7 2.0 -8.9 C Manufacturing 1483 1502 1523 2.5 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2340 2233 2316 3.3 3.0 2.6 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.2 -1.1 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1475 1450 1452 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 F Constrution 1192 1169 1177 -2.5 -1.4 0.3 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1395 1384 1414 0.8 0.4 1.2 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 H Transportation and storage 1466 1447 1444 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1081 1055 1069 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 J Information and communication 2074 2087 2149 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2212 2243 2259 1.1 0.1 1.2 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 2.7 -0.2 2.3 3.9 L Real estate activities 1489 1465 1501 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1715 1712 1738 -1.1 -2.4 1.1 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.8 N Administrative and support service activities 1016 1008 1006 0.7 0.0 2.4 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1744 1748 1744 -1.8 -1.4 1.0 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 P Education 1622 1622 1626 -3.3 -3.3 0.0 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 Q Human health and social work activities 1676 1662 1667 -1.3 -2.0 -0.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1614 1594 1596 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 S Other service activities 1376 1347 1355 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2013 2014 2015 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 -0.3 1.6 1.8 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 3.6 2.0 3.2 2.7 3.5 3.1 3.3 5.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 4.0 4.3 1.8 4.2 2.2 2.2 4.1 0.2 -0.1 4.2 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 0.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 -0.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.6 2.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -1.9 -0.1 -0.4 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 0.8 -2.2 -0.8 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 0.9 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.8 1.5 3.6 2.3 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 -0.9 7.2 10.4 7.3 10.1 12.2 9.9 -0.2 0.9 5.5 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 4.3 4.6 1.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 4.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 10.3 9.5 -3.0 -0.1 2.9 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 1.1 0.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 3.8 2.3 1.6 2.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -1.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.9 0.4 7.1 1.5 -0.5 1.6 1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 -1.3 1.7 1.6 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -6.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 0.9 -0.2 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.5 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -1.1 2.8 4.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 -1.7 7.5 -1.0 0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 3.4 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.4 0.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 -0.4 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.1 1.9 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 0.0 -1.4 -2.6 0.7 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.6 1.8 0.2 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.1 3.6 -0.3 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 7.0 3.6 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 Clothing and footwear -0.2 0.2 -0.9 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.8 3.1 0.1 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 Furnishings, household equipment 0.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 Medical, pharmaceutical products 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 Transport 3.3 0.3 0.2 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 Communications -2.4 -1.2 -1.9 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 Recreation and culture 1.4 0.1 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 3.0 4.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 Education 2.9 2.6 0.1 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Catering services 4.5 6.5 1.1 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 HCPI 2.8 1.9 0.4 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.9 0.0 -0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 Domestic market 1.0 0.3 -1.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 Non-domestic market 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 euro area 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 non-euro area 2.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 Import price indices 1.9 -0.4 -1.4 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.7 0.2 -1.9 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 Oil products 13.0 1.7 0.7 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 4.2 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 Transport & communications 1.6 11.3 11.1 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 15.8 7.3 7.3 1.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 Other controlled prices2 -0.6 -1.5 3.6 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.2 5.0 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 Direct control - total 9.2 1.2 0.5 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 2.6 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal -1.2 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.8 -2.8 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 Real (deflator HICP) -1.1 1.3 -0.1 0.9 0.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -3.2 0.3 0.4 1.6 2.6 Real (deflator ULC) -3.0 0.4 -2.5 -1.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 -1.0 -2.0 -2.5 -4.7 USD/EUR 1.2856 1.3282 1.3288 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3697 1.3712 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2013 2014 2015 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -0.8 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.8 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 3.0 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.9 -2.9 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 6.4 6.4 4.2 3.6 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.0 -0.7 1.2 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.6 -3.7 -4.0 2.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.3 -3.1 -4.2 -4.4 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 1.3610 1.3659 1.3823 1.3813 1.3732 1.3592 1.3539 1.3316 1.2901 1.2673 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 1.1350 1.0838 1.0779 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 954 2,027 2,150 482 587 477 480 338 559 620 634 409 304 263 108 215 Goods -36 763 1,307 206 262 247 48 298 311 328 370 364 159 138 -15 138 Exports 21,256 21,692 23,119 5,323 5,540 5,330 5,499 5,581 5,742 5,750 6,045 5,861 1,925 1,921 1,809 1,810 Imports 21,292 20,929 21,812 5,116 5,279 5,083 5,451 5,284 5,431 5,422 5,675 5,497 1,765 1,782 1,824 1,672 Services 1,509 1,755 1,707 400 485 532 339 320 432 565 389 411 162 152 168 165 Exports 5,106 5,308 5,523 1,141 1,304 1,550 1,313 1,177 1,372 1,584 1,391 1,258 425 424 432 448 Imports 3,597 3,553 3,816 741 819 1,018 974 856 939 1,019 1,001 847 263 272 264 283 Primary income -292 -243 -612 28 -76 -192 -2 -115 -115 -203 -179 -192 17 18 -15 -80 Receipts 1,138 1,015 1,219 256 270 219 270 307 359 250 303 275 137 120 92 58 Expenditures 1,430 1,258 1,830 228 346 411 272 422 474 453 482 467 120 102 107 137 Secondary income -227 -249 -252 -152 -83 -110 95 -165 -69 -71 53 -174 -34 -45 -30 -8 Receipts 931 923 934 196 191 201 334 180 239 193 321 172 59 53 57 82 Expenditures 1,157 1,172 1,186 348 274 310 239 345 308 264 268 346 93 97 87 90 Capital account 41 109 79 31 -4 5 76 0 -39 12 106 34 12 12 -14 -1 Financial account 1,028 2,887 2,148 892 646 712 637 333 443 613 759 778 367 295 102 250 Direct investment -466 -60 -1,186 47 177 -101 -182 -81 -664 -445 5 -353 38 272 -43 -53 Assets -439 5 -53 69 28 -125 32 101 2 -115 -41 39 20 128 -7 -92 Liabilities 27 64 1,134 22 -149 -23 214 182 666 331 -46 392 -18 -144 36 -40 Portfolio investment 220 -3,976 -3,967 -131 -2,095 423 -2,174 -3,097 -1,220 80 269 625 -269 145 -2,589 349 Financial derivatives 89 32 1 20 -13 10 15 -2 -9 2 10 16 4 -18 14 -9 Other investment 1,215 6,886 7,212 1,022 2,558 297 3,009 3,356 2,328 1,050 479 511 628 -88 2,745 -99 Assets 1,634 2,241 4,896 1,209 772 -26 286 1,713 2,031 299 854 770 587 161 453 158 Other equity 155 152 84 14 69 2 68 14 70 1 0 8 12 70 0 -1 Currency and deposits 1,216 2,069 5,066 865 546 119 538 1,516 1,964 469 1,116 498 353 72 437 37 Loans 371 -1 -260 -29 171 -96 -47 -78 -48 -98 -37 -80 -18 67 71 33 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 28 -10 10 12 -18 0 -4 17 -3 -4 0 0 4 -6 -6 -6 Trade credit and advances -49 24 6 342 1 -43 -277 204 83 -50 -230 336 233 -42 -43 86 Other assets -88 7 -10 5 3 -8 7 40 -35 -19 4 8 1 1 -6 9 Liabilities 418 -4,645 -2,316 187 -1,786 -323 -2,723 -1,643 -297 -751 375 259 -42 250 -2,292 257 Other equity 0 0 -6 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 1,026 -4,246 -831 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 -1,075 -54 21 278 -140 -319 68 -2,299 251 Loans -938 -269 -1,401 317 63 -558 -91 -366 -297 -705 -34 378 448 193 -31 -99 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 41 39 -44 21 31 -10 -2 -1 -40 -2 0 0 7 10 10 10 Trade credit and advances 285 -184 -163 -333 73 -163 238 -214 81 -46 16 19 -180 -12 15 69 Other liabilities 5 15 128 -6 28 -21 14 14 13 -19 120 2 2 -10 12 26 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -31 5 89 -67 19 83 -30 157 8 -74 -3 -20 -33 -17 -25 61 Net errors and omissions 33 752 -81 378 63 230 81 -5 -77 -19 20 336 51 19 8 36 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,112 2,163 2,341 521 533 531 579 551 590 572 628 N/A 203 182 178 173 Intermediate goods 12,138 12,425 13,032 3,051 3,159 3,115 3,100 3,261 3,270 3,261 3,241 N/A 1,073 1,102 1,045 1,012 Consumer goods 6,811 6,960 7,676 1,673 1,824 1,672 1,791 1,776 1,875 1,889 2,136 N/A 611 632 577 614 Import of investment goods 2,402 2,573 2,760 646 667 564 696 645 698 632 786 N/A 254 219 260 189 Intermediate goods 14,005 13,635 13,541 3,457 3,448 3,282 3,448 3,317 3,386 3,398 3,440 N/A 1,136 1,195 1,196 1,057 Consumer goods 5,671 5,906 6,382 1,392 1,485 1,475 1,554 1,519 1,608 1,600 1,655 N/A 482 491 489 505 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2013 2014 2015 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 142 144 191 180 91 209 68 -14 283 254 121 185 207 96 316 293 96 244 122 -27 314 154 -1 94 68 -1 -20 80 48 169 141 19 150 138 -21 211 194 60 115 98 46 220 1,925 1,511 1,894 1,994 1,866 1,639 1,807 1,769 2,005 1,954 1,850 1,938 2,039 1,557 2,153 2,185 2,019 1,841 1,814 1,868 2,179 1,772 1,512 1,800 1,926 1,867 1,658 1,726 1,722 1,836 1,813 1,830 1,788 1,901 1,579 1,942 1,991 1,959 1,725 1,716 1,822 1,959 188 199 145 132 116 92 94 88 138 148 138 146 184 221 160 130 129 131 146 101 164 531 541 478 447 413 453 388 354 435 457 445 470 546 540 498 476 416 499 396 391 471 343 342 333 315 297 362 294 266 297 309 306 324 362 319 338 346 287 368 250 290 307 -142 -18 -33 -19 -12 30 -63 -65 13 1 -32 -85 -60 -69 -74 -62 -87 -29 -79 -82 -30 80 76 62 60 67 142 70 78 159 156 111 92 91 75 84 83 75 144 70 71 135 222 94 95 80 80 112 133 143 147 154 143 177 151 144 158 146 162 174 149 153 165 -57 -36 -16 -1 -12 108 -44 -84 -37 -37 -5 -27 -55 -35 19 31 -6 27 -42 -92 -40 65 58 77 79 63 192 62 59 59 73 94 72 58 42 93 120 81 121 51 63 58 123 94 93 80 75 84 106 144 96 110 99 99 114 76 74 88 87 94 94 155 98 16 0 -11 22 9 45 1 0 -2 7 -29 -16 19 -17 10 20 52 34 8 16 9 129 293 290 468 126 44 104 -180 409 153 90 199 214 22 377 35 174 550 370 -61 469 -101 51 -51 -195 35 -23 12 -98 4 -132 -161 -371 -18 -158 -270 -40 22 23 -48 -43 -263 -33 -48 -43 7 68 -43 74 -21 48 4 -25 23 48 -138 -25 117 -5 -153 43 41 -45 68 -99 8 202 33 -21 62 76 44 136 136 394 66 20 245 157 -27 -176 91 83 217 130 89 204 24 -1,824 -374 -408 -2,738 50 -946 -219 -55 -312 106 286 424 -662 506 193 303 129 6 2 2 5 1 9 -1 -3 2 -10 2 -1 4 -3 0 11 -3 3 -7 18 5 12 154 131 634 1,908 467 439 2,543 373 1,248 458 622 541 97 412 -346 779 46 209 -263 565 49 -130 55 475 156 -346 540 1,099 74 1,177 328 526 271 -98 126 -233 599 487 448 -268 589 0 1 0 70 -4 2 2 5 6 69 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 76 103 -60 342 98 99 460 1,049 7 1,028 410 527 411 -4 62 -369 690 796 432 -346 411 -12 -82 -2 31 12 -90 7 -26 -59 24 -22 -50 -69 1 -30 3 -32 -7 -8 -50 -22 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 6 6 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -16 -144 118 35 2 -314 24 105 75 87 -75 71 -55 -109 115 100 -30 -300 15 128 192 1 -8 0 -1 48 -41 41 -39 38 -29 16 -22 -14 15 -19 33 -29 0 7 -1 2 37 -285 -76 -158 -1,752 -813 100 -1,444 -299 -70 -130 -96 -270 -196 -286 113 -179 442 239 -5 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 0 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 311 -1,299 -88 -24 -6 -23 28 45 -52 16 -17 278 -76 -53 -11 -344 48 -262 10 -20 -81 14 -187 -192 39 -160 -176 -165 -255 -284 -105 -96 167 665 -223 -64 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -13 -13 -13 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -136 -63 37 89 107 43 -267 57 -4 -58 14 126 -107 -3 64 87 -31 -41 -356 234 141 -2 -16 -3 3 4 7 44 -14 -16 -14 36 -9 -24 18 -13 119 -36 37 7 37 -42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 -3 4 -1 6 -35 62 116 -21 -7 11 4 -2 -20 -52 -14 38 -27 24 -76 32 -30 150 110 266 25 -211 34 -166 127 -107 -1 31 -12 -57 50 -278 26 272 240 -50 146 204 149 178 197 197 185 168 179 204 202 183 205 207 161 205 226 202 200 168 191 N/A 1,115 912 1,088 1,163 1,069 869 1,089 1,030 1,142 1,121 1,066 1,083 1,159 903 1,199 1,210 1,112 919 1,024 1,072 N/A 604 449 619 623 599 569 559 570 646 634 584 657 663 476 750 728 710 698 606 609 N/A 204 155 205 221 241 234 186 202 256 244 226 227 230 181 221 265 271 250 191 208 N/A 1,165 987 1,130 1,237 1,208 1,003 1,124 1,064 1,130 1,115 1,146 1,125 1,198 981 1,218 1,212 1,209 1,019 1,100 1,139 N/A 509 438 528 549 516 490 474 518 527 547 550 511 549 472 579 593 554 508 490 531 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 221 233 263 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 Central government (S. 1311) 5,057 6,563 7,240 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 610 581 685 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,267 8,917 8,762 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 19,470 14,902 11,729 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,135 1,763 1,485 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,194 5,020 3,684 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,558 29,620 25,155 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 In foreign currency 1,309 1,097 950 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 Securities, total 5,862 7,026 7,469 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 29,582 27,051 25,843 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 Overnight 8,678 8,558 10,157 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,056 6,689 5,955 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 With agreed maturity -long-term 13,780 11,569 9,267 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 68 235 464 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 Deposits in foreign currency, total 552 487 510 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 Overnight 372 324 354 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 With agreed maturity -short-term 123 91 84 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 72 72 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.20 0.11 0.07 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.31 1.86 0.98 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.48 5.40 5.06 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.32 3.86 4.41 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 0.1^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.50 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.570 0.221 0.210 0.186 0.204 0.223 0.206 0.209 0.201 0.210 0.221 0.226 0.223 0.226 6-month rates 0.830 0.336 0.309 0.323 0.343 0.362 0.329 0.324 0.299 0.321 0.336 0.342 0.340 0.342 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.066 0.021 0.013 0.015 0.018 0.024 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.018 0.020 0.018 0.020 0.020 6-month rates 0.146 0.080 0.066 0.073 0.080 0.080 0.090 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2013 2014 2015 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 233 233 239 239 245 209 227 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 4,881 6,563 6,448 6,437 6,476 6,154 6,262 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 570 581 585 585 584 582 577 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 8,853 8,850 8,835 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 17,918 14,902 14,691 14,599 14,544 14,531 14,429 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,825 11,728 11,676 11,569 1,966 1,763 1,993 1,968 1,962 1,945 1,929 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 4,818 5,012 4,863 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 29,154 29,298 29,017 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,176 24,885 24,707 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 1,046 1,036 1,025 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,006 983 957 5,366 7,026 6,921 6,944 7,028 6,731 6,845 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,579 7,618 7,542 7,566 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 27,034 27,187 27,067 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,359 25,884 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 8,979 9,278 9,390 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 6,893 7,215 7,088 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,320 5,302 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 10,852 10,389 10,252 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 311 235 324 283 310 305 337 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 511 487 493 488 490 496 496 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 334 324 328 324 333 335 336 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 98 91 93 93 90 94 92 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 79 72 72 71 67 67 68 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 5.26 5.58 5.23 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.96 4.21 6.63 5.51 1.53 5.05 2.82 4.66 3.07 4.50 3.89 2.40 3.39 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.05 0.223 0.275 0.292 0.288 0.305 0.330 0.325 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.006 0.327 0.373 0.396 0.387 0.407 0.430 0.417 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.176 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.074 0.020 0.020 0.022 0.018 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 0.072 0.075 0.083 0.081 0.078 0.075 0.068 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 PUBLIC FINANCE 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 QO Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 8 1 9 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,999.1 14,728.2 15,492.0 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,634.1 3,905.1 3,686.5 4,266.2 3,633.8 1,204.9 1,238.2 Current revenues 14,030.6 13,637.4 14,377.0 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,409.9 3,695.2 3,501.4 3,770.4 3,411.7 1,159.5 1,125.9 Tax revenues 13,118.3 12,648.4 13,191.6 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 3,317.0 3,237.5 3,490.1 3,252.4 1,063.1 1,064.0 Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 2,137.4 2,385.9 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 686.3 466.3 637.7 601.7 188.7 191.2 Social security contributions 5,244.1 5,127.2 5,272.5 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 1,302.5 1,300.7 1,365.3 1,339.5 419.4 418.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 25.6 23.4 20.2 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.5 1.6 1.6 Taxes on property 233.9 254.1 244.2 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.8 19.2 29.3 100.3 95.4 26.9 29.3 29.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,876.1 5,027.4 5,191.2 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 1,300.1 1,350.5 1,369.6 1,246.0 408.0 421.6 Taxes on international trade & transactions 82.5 77.5 77.7 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 19.1 19.0 18.5 21.1 21.3 6.3 5.3 Other taxes -0.6 1.3 -0.2 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -25.7 -3.5 -4.5 12.5 9.7 -4.5 Non-tax revenues 912.3 989.0 1,185.4 237.8 185.7 322.8 242.7 262.9 378.2 264.0 280.3 159.3 96.4 61.9 Capital revenues 62.5 67.1 51.4 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 11.6 10.5 13.1 16.2 10.8 2.7 4.4 Grants 9.2 32.7 18.9 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.4 1.3 11.0 4.3 2.2 2.4 0.2 4.0 Transferred revenues 51.7 52.7 4.5 0.5 0.4 50.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.2 0.4 50.2 Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 938.4 1,040.3 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.7 209.9 188.0 167.2 475.2 207.7 42.0 53.8 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,125.7 16,286.4 16,751.2 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.2 3,957.1 4,009.3 4,494.6 4,287.6 1,179.8 1,293.4 Current expenditures 6,813.5 6,838.4 7,042.1 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.6 1,692.4 1,581.3 1,844.8 1,970.1 460.8 532.1 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,727.7 3,616.7 3,610.4 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.4 919.5 908.4 883.3 899.2 926.2 290.5 285.7 Expenditures on goods and services 2,373.0 2,238.9 2,232.3 559.1 565.9 526.7 587.2 531.7 538.8 546.9 614.8 500.4 161.0 167.4 Interest payments 647.9 840.1 1,097.4 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 451.8 221.9 131.0 292.6 497.2 1.7 72.2 Reserves 64.9 142.6 102.1 56.2 21.3 20.8 44.2 20.5 23.3 20.1 38.2 46.2 7.6 6.8 Current transfers 7,687.0 7,671.3 7,591.9 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.3 1,848.4 1,883.4 1,875.8 1,933.2 582.5 608.2 Subsidies 502.7 519.5 467.4 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.6 205.5 80.3 71.3 110.2 201.2 21.2 27.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 6,343.1 6,335.0 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,561.9 1,600.0 1,621.1 1,552.1 1,564.1 503.5 512.1 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 741.0 734.2 714.3 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.3 204.5 147.7 173.2 188.8 153.4 53.7 64.8 Current transfers abroad 59.0 74.4 75.2 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 12.3 20.4 17.8 24.7 14.5 4.0 3.4 Capital expenditures 915.0 1,031.8 1,444.4 141.6 146.3 259.7 484.2 188.1 269.8 414.6 572.0 175.3 83.2 95.5 Capital transfers 319.9 319.5 270.0 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 50.7 67.9 119.8 37.9 21.3 25.1 Payments to the EU budget 390.3 425.5 402.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 162.7 95.9 62.2 82.1 171.1 32.0 32.5 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,126.6 -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -717.5 -516.6 -113.1 -211.0 -656.1 -52.0 -322.8 -228.3 -653.9 25.0 -55.2 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2013 2014 2015 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1,275.2 1,201.0 1,604.1 1,231.9 1,196.6 1,205.6 1,286.1 1,337.4 1,281.7 1,175.8 1,166.8 1,343.9 1,382.2 1,317.0 1,567.1 1,311.7 1,074.3 1,247.7 1,210.9 1,144.3 1,293.5 1,199.3 1,140.1 1,070.6 1,185.4 1,279.3 1,230.5 1,130.0 1,147.2 1,224.2 1,260.4 1,185.2 1,324.8 1,275.9 998.1 1,137.7 1,142.4 1,067.1 1,196.5 1,135.8 994.4 1,016.8 1,116.3 1,072.3 1,128.4 1,029.8 1,058.3 1,149.4 1,157.6 1,117.5 1,215.0 1,221.6 945.9 1,084.9 187.8 190.0 229.1 207.0 199.3 189.3 241.3 185.7 259.4 75.3 191.5 199.5 197.0 204.1 236.6 207.6 202.6 191.5 420.1 427.8 469.7 430.5 445.0 428.5 435.7 432.5 434.2 436.8 432.9 431.1 438.2 439.1 488.0 454.6 440.4 444.5 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 19.9 35.7 15.3 6.8 6.6 5.9 11.9 6.0 11.4 23.6 37.5 39.2 27.6 40.4 27.4 11.1 10.0 5.8 512.7 408.8 485.0 478.9 329.6 362.4 444.9 439.2 416.0 489.1 383.2 478.2 485.4 421.5 462.7 504.8 361.2 379.9 5.8 6.1 5.1 5.0 7.2 6.9 6.6 5.7 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.9 6.7 7.6 5.9 6.2 9.1 -5.8 -3.2 -10.2 6.0 5.3 22.2 -25.9 1.4 -1.2 -3.0 5.9 -6.4 0.9 4.1 -9.4 36.0 -76.0 52.5 68.5 77.2 97.0 63.5 145.7 53.8 69.1 207.0 102.2 100.3 88.9 74.8 102.8 67.7 109.8 54.3 52.2 52.8 4.7 5.5 20.2 3.8 4.4 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.0 8.1 3.3 3.7 3.8 0.3 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 9.5 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 59.0 50.2 288.5 27.4 52.0 130.5 96.6 53.8 37.5 40.6 15.3 111.3 115.6 126.3 233.3 32.0 71.6 104.0 1,332.4 1,367.6 1,591.3 1,439.9 1,474.7 1,375.6 1,335.2 1,326.2 1,295.8 1,411.8 1,279.4 1,318.2 1,500.5 1,389.9 1,604.2 1,419.5 1,402.6 1,465.6 532.6 565.1 582.1 624.9 672.0 626.6 622.5 536.0 533.9 516.5 524.0 540.7 686.6 568.3 589.9 637.9 619.2 713.0 285.1 295.5 319.8 299.6 345.1 274.9 287.5 290.5 330.4 299.5 294.0 289.8 294.6 293.1 311.5 316.7 303.8 305.7 173.1 183.1 231.1 176.4 184.2 171.1 183.3 165.5 190.0 207.9 169.9 169.1 179.6 182.4 252.8 153.8 146.7 200.0 66.8 78.8 2.3 141.9 135.9 173.9 143.0 73.3 5.7 3.4 53.2 74.4 204.6 84.5 3.6 142.8 159.3 195.2 7.6 7.7 28.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 8.8 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 22.0 24.7 9.4 12.1 617.1 628.6 660.9 697.0 652.4 634.9 590.1 644.3 614.0 717.7 580.1 585.6 599.7 618.5 657.7 673.1 620.0 640.1 34.4 48.5 56.6 119.7 65.7 20.2 31.9 33.2 15.1 31.0 18.1 22.2 23.9 43.8 42.5 78.3 103.0 19.9 516.7 513.9 523.9 514.9 524.3 522.8 531.0 543.8 525.1 613.3 502.8 505.0 513.3 517.6 521.2 515.9 516.8 531.5 63.2 63.3 78.8 56.5 57.4 90.7 25.1 55.8 66.8 59.3 56.7 57.1 59.2 54.3 75.3 72.6 -3.8 84.6 2.7 2.9 1.6 6.0 5.0 1.3 2.0 11.4 7.0 14.0 2.4 1.3 3.3 2.7 18.7 6.3 4.0 4.2 122.6 125.2 236.4 68.6 59.1 60.4 75.0 92.5 102.3 129.7 131.4 153.4 151.2 141.8 279.0 63.9 43.5 67.9 41.5 29.6 84.5 1.7 9.4 20.4 14.8 20.3 15.6 22.6 22.8 22.4 44.3 31.0 44.5 10.3 17.0 10.6 18.6 19.1 27.3 47.7 81.7 33.3 32.7 33.1 30.0 25.2 21.0 16.0 18.7 30.3 33.1 34.3 102.9 33.9 -57.2 -166.6 12.8 -208.0 -278.0 -170.0 -49.1 11.2 -14.1 -236.0 -112.6 25.7 -118.4 -72.8 -37.1 -107.7 -328.2 -217.9 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI -Consumer Price Index, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ESA-2010 - European System of Accounts 2010, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, EUR - Euro, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, LFS - Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP ETID - Operational programme of environmental and transport infrastructure development, OP HRD - Operational programme for human resources development, OP SRDP - Operational programme for strengthening regional development potentials, PDII -Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SPI - Social Progress Index SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, USD - US Dollar, VAT - value added tax, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror May 2015, No. 5, Vol. XXI