Slovenian Economic Mirror J imad Economic Analyses/July 2008 No. 7, Vol. XIV Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Jure Brložnik (In the Spotlight, International Environment), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans, Stock Exchange), Jasna Kondža (General Government Revenue, State Budgets for 2007 and 2008), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Jure Povšnar (Energy Sector, Transport), Barbara Ferk (Available and Allocated Assets of Households and Possession of Durable Goods, 2000-2006). Director: Boštjan Vasle. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Marija Kavčič. Language Editing: Translation and Interpretation Division of the Secretariat-General of the Government of the RS. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 500 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakelj@gov.si Translator: marija.kavcic@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.umar.gov.si/en/publications/slovenian_economic_mirror/zapisi/?no_cache=1 Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © 1995. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 2 In the Spotlight Gradual slowdown in economic activity; inflation remains high p. 3 International Environment Economic growth in the EMU expected to moderate in the second quarter according to current data; inflation in the EMU strengthened to 4.1% in July p. 4 Balance of Payments Current account deficit widening p. 5 Price Trends & Policy Inflation in June marked particularly by high price rises of liquid fuels for transport and heating p. 6 Money Market -Household Savings Strong growth of long-term deposits recorded also in May; mutual funds posted net inflows for the first time this year p. 7 Money Market - Loans Year-on-year growth of loans to non-banking sectors dropped below 30% p. 8 Stock Exchange Negative trends on the domestic and foreign capital markets continue p. 9 General Government Revenue Favourable real growth of general government revenue from the first quarter strengthened somewhat further in the second quarter p. 10 Labour Market The number of persons in employment slowed year on year for the fifth consecutive month in May p. 11 Earnings Growth of gross wages in May higher in public services than in the private sector p. 12 Manufacturing Lower production activity in May; continuation of gradual decline can be expected also in the following months p. 13 Energy Sector High production, exports and surplus of electricity in the second quarter p. 14 Transport Road freight transport even stronger in the first quarter p. 15 SELECTED TOPICS State Budgets for 2007 and 2008 Supplementary budget for 2008 forecasts budgetary surplus of 0.2% of GDP pp. 19, 20 Available and Allocated Assets of Households and Possession of Durable Goods, 2000-2006 Consumption expenditure in 2006 in real terms almost equal to previous year; more funds allocated for investment and social security pp. 21, 22 Data: (pp. A 1-12), Main Indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic developments, change in % Latest data Compared to the previous month same period of previous year latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) V -4.3 2.4 3.3 1.4 Manufacturing V -3.6 2.8 3.6 1.6 Electricity, gas and water supply V -8.5 -1.0 -1.6 -3.4 Value of construction put in place, real terms V 16.3 25.3 29.6 32.5 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 V -8.2 8.0 10.1 7.3 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 V -1.0 11.3 12.9 11.8 Real effective exchange rate2 V 0.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 Gross wage per employee, real terms V -0.7 1.5 1.5 1.1 Total household savings in banks,3 nominal terms V 1.4 11.3 11.6 10.8 General government revenue, real terms VI -3.6 6.0 4.5 5.1 Number of persons in paid employment V 0.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 Number of registered unemployed VI -0.7 -13.4 -13.6 -13.6 Number of job vacancies VI -6.4 3.2 6.7 5.6 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate V 6.5 6.6 6.9 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices VII 0.0 4.1 6.9 Producer prices (domestic market) VI 0.5 4.2 6.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 3 Given that economic growth in the first quarter was stronger than expected, the IMF has revised its forecast for this year's economic growth in the euro area upwards; after the sharp acceleration in inflation in June, the ECB raised its key interest rate. In the first quarter, real GDP growth in the euro area stood at 2.1% but will moderate in the second quarter, according to current indicators and expectations. Having been the most pessimistic of all international forecasting institutions in spring, the IMF has now revised its forecast upwards. GDP growth in the euro area is thus expected to be 1.7% this year, or 0.3 p.p. higher than projected in spring. It will continue to moderate next year according to the new forecast, though the slowdown will be less pronounced than projected in spring. The IMF has also revised its forecast of inflation, which is projected to be 1.2 p.p. higher (3.4%) in advanced economies this year than in 2007. The increase in year-on-year inflation in the euro area, which totalled 4.1% in July, is still mainly due to rising oil and food prices at the global level. At the same time, the ECB also warned of increasing domestic price pressures and accelerated growth of wages, and raised its key interest rate by 0.25 p.p. (to 4.25%), primarily to set off secondary effects and curb inflationary expectations. Consumer prices remained unchanged in Slovenia in July, but year-on-year inflation is still relatively high. July's price trends were largely marked by prices which are highly seasonal in nature, namely lower prices of clothing and footwear and higher prices of package holidays and food. Furthermore, the contribution of fuel prices to inflation declined significantly compared to the previous months. As with other euro area countries, persistent high inflation at the year-on-year level still mainly reflected higher oil product prices, which contributed almost 2 p.p. to Slovenia's inflation in the last year, and higher food prices, which contributed a good 2 p.p. Inflation also increased due to economic growth, which was once more twice the EMU average. Prices which are under various regimes of government control increased by 11.4% in the first six months. Administered prices increased at a faster pace than total consumer prices mainly due to strong growth of energy prices (formed under the pricing model on the basis of oil price movements on global markets), while prices under direct control increased by only 0.6% in the first six months. In line with the adopted supplementary budget, a countercyclical orientation of fiscal policy, which should not put any additional pressures on growth of prices, is also projected for 2008. Instead of a deficit of 0.6% of GDP as originally planned, the state budget is projected to record a surplus in the amount of 0.2% of GDP. Growth of wages is higher than in the same period last year. Nominal growth of the gross wage per employee totalled 8.1% in the first five months (compared with 5.6% last year). In the autumn months, wage growth is expected to increase at a somewhat faster pace due to the beginning of the implementation of sectoral collective agreements in the public sector. The risk that wages will grow faster than foreseen will be also faced next year, due to the increase on account of the disbursement of two of four payments for eliminating wage disparities in the public sector; if inflation rises more than assumed, the adjustment of wages will be correspondingly higher. After recording strong year-on-year growth in April, merchandise trade slowed significantly in May and the increase in the current account deficit was still mainly due to the deterioration of the trade balance. May saw a deceleration in year-on-year growth of both imports (from 16.0% to 5.5%) and exports (from 18.1% to 0.1%). By our estimate, growth of exports slowed especially as a result of the decline in growth of road vehicle exports, which accelerated notably last May. In the first five months of this year, growth of exports totalled 7.4%, growth of imports 11.1%. The current account deficit also widened in May and was up EUR 400 m in the first five months of 2008 compared with the same period last year. The bulk of this increase was due to the higher trade deficit, which mainly resulted from high investment activity, though higher net value of oil and oil product imports also contributed a significant share. The average year-on-year growth of manufacturing production moderated to 2.8% in the first five months; the confidence indicator value, which has been decreasing gradually since May 2007, fell in July as well. The fall in manufacturing activity in May was due, in addition to one fewer working day and the continuing gradual decline in both domestic and foreign demand (the level of new orders in the average of the first five months of 2008 was lower than in the same period last year), also to a decrease in year-on-year growth rates in the manufacture of transport equipment and in the chemical industry, which underpinned total manufacturing growth in the first four months of this year (contributing 3.0 p.p. to 3.6% growth). As the respective growth rates of these sectors accelerated year on year in last May and June, growth is not expected to be as fast in the following months as previously. The seasonally adjusted confidence indicator value in July was at the lowest level since September of 2005. For the first time since the end of 2006, most enterprises cited insufficient domestic and foreign demand as the main limiting factors to production. The number of persons in formal employment continued to grow in May, though year-on-year growth has been slowing down in recent months; the registered unemployment rate also fell once more (to 6.5%). The number of persons in employment continued to grow in May, with an equal monthly growth rate to that in April. The strongest growth in the number of persons in employment in May was seen in construction, real estate, renting and business services, while in manufacturing the number of persons in employment at the monthly level dropped for the first time this year. In the first five months of 2008, the number of persons in formal employment was on average 3.3% higher than in the same period last year, while in May, it was 3.1% higher than in May 2007. International Environment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p 4 Real GDP growth - comparison of forecasts and IMAD's assumptions EMU EU DE IT AT FR UK US CZ HU PL HR BIH SRB MK IMAD, Mar. 08 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.7 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 4.6 2.5 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.5 5.0 08 IMF, Apr. 08 1.4 N/A 1.4 0.3 1.9 1.4 1.6 0.5 4.2 1.8 4.9 4.3 5.5 4.0 4.5 CONS, July 08 1.6 1.8 2.2 0.4 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 4.7 2.2 5.4 4.5 5.8 5.9 4.4 IMF, July 081 1.7 N/A 2.0 0.5 N/A 1.6 1.8 1.3 4.7 2.5 5.5 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.0 IMAD, Mar. 08 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.4 5.0 3.8 5.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 09 IMF, Apr. 08 1.2 N/A 1.0 0.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 4.6 2.5 4.5 4.0 5.5 6.0 5.0 CONS, July 08 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.5 4.6 3.2 4.8 4.7 5.6 5.9 4.6 IMF, July 081 1.2 N/A 1.0 0.5 N/A 1.4 1.7 0.8 5.0 3.4 5.3 4.5 5.0 5.0 6.0 Source of data: IMAD - Spring Forecast (March 2008); IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008); IMF World Economic Outlook Update (July 2008); Consensus Forecasts (July 2008); Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (July 2008); WIIW Current Analysis and Forecasts (July 2008). _Note 1For CZ, HU, PL, HR, BIH, RS and MAK WIIW Current Analysis and Forecasts (July 2008)._ Economic growth in the first quarter was higher than expected, but the latest forecasts of international institutions nevertheless confirm the expectations that economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners will slow in the following quarters and will be lower than in 2007. According to the latest Eurostat data, real GDP growth in the euro area was 2.1% in the first quarter and thus exceeded the expectations. Similar results were also recorded in most of Slovenia's main trading partners from the euro area. The IMF revised its spring forecasts of economic growth, which were the most pessimistic among the forecasts of all the international institutions. For the euro area, as well as for trading partners in the euro area, the IMF thus expects higher GDP growth in 2008 than projected in spring, though it will nevertheless be much weaker than last year (see table). Further moderation of economic growth is also expected next year. The latest IMF and Consensus forecasts of this year's economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners are thus in line with our assumptions in the Spring Forecast, while the forecasts for the following year are lower. In view of the WIIW forecasts, economic growth will this year moderate also in the new EU member states, and in the states from the area of former Yugoslavia, though growth rates in the latter are already expected to strengthen somewhat next year. Similarly, the FED also revised its interval forecasts of economic growth for 2008. Due to higher-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2008, it now projects somewhat higher growth than in April (from 0.3-1.2% to 1.0-1.6%), while leaving its forecasts for the next year unchanged (2.0-2.8%). Certain current indicators and forecasts, as well as sentiment indicators already suggest that GDP growth in the euro area will slow in the second quarter. In May, industrial production in the euro area recorded the largest monthly decline since December 1992, mainly due to the significant decreases in the four largest member states. On a year-on-year basis it recorded the first drop in three years. According to the joint estimate of the three main macroeconomic institutions from Germany, France and Italy, after relatively strong growth in the first months of this year, industrial production indicators have now started to reflect the deterioration in business confidence, which has been observed in survey results since last summer. Industrial production is thus projected to stagnate at the quarterly level in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, growth is expected to strengthen slightly again, though it will nevertheless be lower than in the first quarter. As is the case with industrial production, the three institutions expect that economic growth in the euro area will stagnate at the quarterly level and strengthen slightly in the second half of this year. In July, the ECB also warned of a considerable slowdown in economic growth in the euro area in the second quarter. According to the ECB, the slowdown will also be a result of high growth in the first quarter, which was due to one-off or transitory factors. The strong euro, which was 15.2% more expensive on average in the first half of the year than in the same period last year, compared to the U.S. dollar, is also one of the factors which will have a negative effect on economic growth, and particularly on exports. High inflation continues to be a big problem in the euro area and elsewhere. Year-on-year inflation in the euro area ran at 4.0% in June (reaching 4.1% in July), so that at its July meeting, the ECB raised its main interest rate for the first time since last June, by 0.25 p.p., to 4.25%. The ECB estimates that high inflation is still attributable especially to high energy prices, which increased by 16.0% year on year, with oil prices hitting record highs again in June (on average, the price of Brent crude oil per barrel totalled 132.3 USD, which is 86% more than in June 2007), and food prices, which rose by 6.6% in June. In addition to external shocks, the ECB also points to increasing domestic price pressures and accelerated wage growth. By its estimate, inflation will remain notably above the 2.0% target for quite some time and will start to decline towards this value gradually in 2009. The ECB decided to raise its interest rate mainly to stem secondary effects and prevent further rising of inflationary expectations. Inflation is also increasingly becoming a problem in the U.S.A., with year-on-year inflation in June running at 5.0% - the highest since May 1991. It is thus not surprising that the FED revised upwards its forecast of this year's inflation from 3.1-3.4% to 3.8-4.2%. The awareness that inflation is becoming a global problem was also confirmed by the IMF, which increased its forecast for inflation this year in developed economies by 0.8 p.p., to 3.4%, while for developing countries it forecasts that inflation will be 1.7 p.p. higher (9.1%) than projected in April. Graph 1: GDP growth in the EMU, USA and Germany (in %) Graph 2: ECB and FED main interest rates and the USD/EUR exchange rate trend 3.0 2.5 * 2.0 £= -c" 1.5 ? d 1.0 0.5 0.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 ^ 4.0 c — o) CL > o c ■q ro o f~\ o o ro 0 5 < co z q —i ll_ Sources of data: BS, Securities Market Agency; calculations by IMAD. Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 8 Nominal amounts, in EUR m Nominal loan growth, in % Domestic bank loans 31. V 2008/ 31. V 2008/ 31. V 2008/ 30. IV 2008 31. XII2007 31. V 2007 Loans total 26,715.5 29,156.9 1.5 9.1 28.5 Domestic currency loans 24,796.8 26,924.9 1.6 8.6 25.8 Enterprises and NFI 18,509.5 20,306.0 1.6 9.7 30.2 Households 5,781.6 6,064.7 1.0 4.9 16.9 Government 505.7 554.3 9.4 9.6 -9.8 Foreign currency loans 1,918.7 2,232.0 0.2 16.3 73.7 Enterprises and NFI 869.2 963.5 -1.6 10.9 69.9 Households 1,036.1 1,253.2 1.7 21.0 78.4 Government 13.4 15.3 -3.0 13.7 -2.7 Household loans by purpose 6,817.7 7,317.9 1.2 7.3 24.2 Consumer credits 2,742.5 2,813.4 0.9 2.6 15.8 Lending for house purchase 2,667.9 3,006.9 1.8 12.7 35.3 Other lending 1,407.3 1,497.6 0.3 6.4 20.7 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions. The lending activity of domestic banks is gradually slowing, which is mainly due to the tightening of credit conditions and a smaller supply of liquid assets. Growth of household, corporate and NFI loans was also relatively modest in May. The volume of government borrowing, on the other hand, strengthened and achieved almost 10% growth, though its contribution to total growth was modest (0.2 p.p.), given its small share. Year-on-year growth dropped below 30% for the first time since June 2007. The year-on-year growth rate of corporate and NFI loans is dropping faster than the growth rate of household loans. Gradual moderation in lending activity growth is also indicated by net flows of domestic banks' loans to domestic non-banking sectors, which reached EUR 2,441.4 m in the first five months this year, falling 2% short of the level recorded in the same period last year. Strengthening of the CHF against the EUR in the first quarter of 2008 was also reflected in the borrowers' attitude to exchange rate risk, as the volume of foreign currency loans posted only a slight increase after the decline in April (the average monthly growth was 4.7% in the last 12 months). The volume of corporate and NFI loans increased by 1.4% in May, which is the second-lowest monthly growth rate this year (the lowest being 1.1% in February). Net repayments on foreign currency loans were made by enterprises and NFI for the second month in a row, while in May monthly growth of euro loans still achieved nearly three quarters of the twelve-month average. In the first five months of 2008, net borrowing of enterprises and NFI from domestic banks totalled EUR 1,890.8 m, a good 5% less than in the same period last year. Borrowing abroad is becoming a less and less important financing source of enterprises and NFI. In the first five months of this year, net borrowing of enterprises and NFI abroad amounted to EUR 78.5 m, which is less than 30% of the level in the same period of 2007. After net repaying foreign loans in April, banks increased net borrowing again in May. At the monthly level, the net flow of loans achieved EUR 469.6 m, the highest value this year. The maturity structure of borrowing abroad improved somewhat in May, given that long-term loans accounted for more than two thirds of net borrowing. In the first five months of this year, banks' net borrowing abroad totalled EUR 822.9 m, nearly a quarter less than in the comparable period last year. Monthly growth of the volume of household loans in May was the lowest recorded this year. In May, growth in the volume of housing loans dropped below 2% for the first time this year. Monthly net flows of these loans nevertheless still accounted for almost two thirds of total net household borrowing. Growth rates of consumer loans and loans for other purposes remain relatively weak. In the first five months of this year, net borrowing of households totalled EUR 500.2 m, which is 2.2% less than in the comparable period last year. In May, the average year-on-year growth rate of loans in the EMU declined for the fourth time in a row, but the declines were small. The 10.7% growth recorded in May was thus only 0.6 p.p. lower than at the end of 2007. Growth of household loans declined at the fastest pace. Totalling 4.5%, it reached the lowest year-on-year figure, recorded since comparable data have been available. Weak growth was largely linked to net repayment of German household loans (the volume of household loans decreased by 1.0% year on year) accounting for almost 30% of all household loans in the EMU. Corporate and NFI borrowing strengthened in the first five months this year; its net flows, totalling EUR 331.1 bn, exceeded the amount from the comparable period last year by 7.8%. Growth in corporate and NFI borrowing is most likely attributable to the fact that banks are granting loans from credit lines opened before the onset of the financial crisis. Graph 1: Evolution of year-on-year growth rates of loans Graph 2: Net borrowing of banks abroad 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 CO CO CO CO m O S & 1,200 900 j 600 E 0 -300 m □ Short-term loans d Long-term loans i 1 2 mn 2 — Fl 1 u 2 • Total • Enterprises and NFI Households -EMU • Households • Total -EMU -----Enterprises and NFI - EMU CO CO CO CO Sources of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Source of data: BS. fr z5 300 Stock Exchange Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 9 Turnover and market capitalisation on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange Turnover, I-VI 2008 Market capitalisation, 30. VI 2008 EUR m Growth rates (%), I-VI 2008/I-VI 2007 EUR m Growth rates (%), 30. VI08/30. VI 07 Total 784.1 -36.3 22,021.7 -11.1 Shares (excluding investment funds) 613.1 -25.6 14,537.4 -17.5 Prime market 432.1 -24.5 8,427.0 -0.4 Standard market 144.2 -26.4 3,614.5 7.4 Entry market 36.7 -33.6 2,495.9 -3.6 Investment funds 41.5 -28.3 713.1 -22.8 Investment coupons 10.2 -75.1 499.5 196.4 Bonds1 119.3 -39.7 6,271.7 3.6 Source of data: LSE, calculations by IMAD. Notes: figures do not always add up due to rounding. 'Including the turnover on the MMTS for the period in 2007. The Slovenian capital market witnessed significant structural shifts at the end of the first half of the year. The Ljubljana Stock Exchange was acquired by the Vienna Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance development of the Slovenian capital market through accelerated introduction of new services. A new market segmentation of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange was also launched in that period, abolishing the division of the Slovenian regulated market into the official and semi-official markets. The division of the stock exchange market now follows types of securities - equity market, bond market, fund market (mutual funds, traded on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange - ETF), investment fund market and structured products market. The change in the stock exchange market structure has been introduced to increase the quality of stock exchange market data as well as to enhance the visibility of individual trading segments. The change in the structure also follows development trends on the capital markets and ensures comparability of products and segments with other European stock exchanges. The negative trends on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange continued in the second quarter this year. The decline was less notable than in the first quarter, but the value of the main index (SBI20) nevertheless declined by almost a tenth. In the first half of the year, it declined by a good 30 %, while it was a quarter lower year on year. This is one of the more persistent negative trends seen on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, as the index value dropped for the sixth month in a row. Only in the period between December 2002 and June 2003 did a decline persist longer, but the index value dropped by less than a tenth then. In terms of intensity, this year's decline only fell short of that in 1996, when the SBI value decreased by as much as 40% in five months. The volume of market capitalisation declined for the second consecutive quarter. At the end of June it was 18% lower than at the end of last year. Compared with the previous quarter, it declined by 3.9%, by a good 10 p.p. less, which is mainly due to a smaller decline in the values of securities on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, and also to new listings of companies and investment coupons on the stock exchange. In the second quarter, the market capitalisation of investment coupons thus almost tripled, which, despite the small share for these investments, nevertheless alleviated the decline in total market capitalisation by 1.6 p.p. On the other hand, the largest decrease was seen in market capitalisation of shares of investment funds, which declined by 15.2% in the second quarter. After a significant increase in the first quarter of 2008, market capitalisation of bonds dropped by almost a tenth, surely a consequence of the withdrawal of certain government bonds, given that the quarterly drop in the value of bond index was insignificant (-0.7%). The quarterly turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange declined for the third consecutive quarter, which is also reflected in a decrease in Slovenia's capital market liquidity, which was already low. The total quarterly turnover volume was EUR 334.3 m, which is the smallest figure in the last three years, and which has almost halved compared to the same quarter last year. Trading in shares also dropped (excluding the shares of investment funds), as did trading in bonds. Only the turnover in shares of investment funds recorded a slight increase (of 2%). On foreign capital markets, index values also mainly decreased. The value of the MSCI WORLD index, measured in euros, declined by only 1.9% in the second quarter this year, but the total decline is a result of the 9.4% drop in June. This is the largest monthly decline in the last five years, and occurred as a result of significant oil price rises and in expectation of a restrictive monetary policy from central banks as a response to increasing inflation. Graph 1: Structure of market capitalisation on the _Ljubljana Stock Exchange_ Graph 2: Year-on-year growth rates of selected stock exchange indices_ 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% I □ Bonds □ Shares (excluding investment funds) a Investment funds ■ Investment coupons 130 110 90 > 70 i ä 50 J 30 10 -10 --30 Sources of data: LSE, finance.yahoo.com, calculations by I MAD. ™ calculations by IMAD General Government Revenue Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 10 General government revenue I-VI 2008, EUR m Growth index, nominal Structure, I-VI VI 2008/ V 2008 VI2008/ VI2007 I-VI 2008/ I-VI 2007 2008 2007 Total general government revenue 6,959.0 97.3 122.3 113.0 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 740.4 88.7 123.2 115.0 10.6 10.5 Personal income tax 1,061.7 95.2 226.2 123.6 15.3 13.9 Domestic taxes on goods & services 2,204.1 98.6 116.6 114.0 31.7 31.4 Value added tax 1,499.3 98.8 123.7 116.2 21.5 20.9 Excise duties1 574.2 99.3 116.3 110.3 8.3 8.5 Customs duties, other import taxes 59.3 103.6 101.4 114.1 0.9 0.8 Social security contributions 2,424.4 100.9 110.2 111.3 34.8 35.4 Payroll tax 108.0 101.9 57.3 59.0 1.6 3.0 Other revenue 361.1 86.5 114.1 116.1 5.2 5.0 Source of data: AP, PPA, B-2 Report 2007 (gross deposits); methodology and calculations by IMAD. Note: 1the figure is adjusted for excise duty payment periods. Favourable real growth of general government revenue from the first quarter (4.9%) strengthened in the second quarter. In the first six months, the total general government revenue increased by a real 6% year on year. Stronger growth in general government revenue, which was most pronounced in revenues from personal income tax and value added tax, also resulted from favourable macroeconomic trends last year, as the half-year revenue also includes part of tax assessments for the previous year. In the first six months, revenue from value added tax increased by 9% in real terms. After favourable growth in the first quarter, revenue from value added tax recorded even stronger growth in the second quarter of the year. The largest increase was seen in real growth of revenue from value added tax related to domestic consumption (H1: 9.9%, Q1: 4.7%), while real growth in revenue from value added tax on imports slowed somewhat in the second quarter (H1: 6.1%, Q1: 8.6%). In the first six months, revenue from excise duties increased by 3.5% in real terms, year on year. Its real growth slowed slightly in the second quarter as well (Q1: 6.6%). Revenue from excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products increased faster than total revenue, due to the increase in excise duty rates in the second half of 2007. Revenue from excise duties on mineral oils increased somewhat slower than the average, given the lower excise duty rates than in the same period last year. Revenue from excise duties on alcohol and alcohol products decreased in real terms. Revenue from corporate income tax also recorded an above-average increase in the first six months (by a real 7.9%). In the first half of the year, revenue from corporate income tax was influenced by several factors, especially last year's economic trends and legislation changes which came into force on 1 January 2007, but were - due to the tax payment and levying method - not visible until 2008, when the tax assessment was conducted on the basis of business results for 2007. Growth of revenue from social security contributions was moderate. Given that the social security contribution rates remained unchanged (38.2%), revenue from social security contributions recorded a 4.5% increase in real terms year on year in the first six months. After last year's reduction due to the implementation of the new personal income tax act, real growth of revenue from personal income tax strengthened notably in the first six months this year. Revenue from personal income tax increased by 15.9% in real terms; within that, tax on income from employment increased by 6.2% in real terms, while tax on income from other sources pursuant to the personal income tax act (especially tax on income from capital gains, which recorded the largest increase, and tax on property income), increased by a good 30%. At midyear, the decrease in personal income tax due to the final annual personal income tax assessment for the previous year was much smaller than in the previous year. The abolishment of special tax reliefs for various expenses and purchases of dwellings (2%; 4%) allowed a more accurate determination of personal income tax advance payments; the dynamics of payment of the differences on the basis of tax assessments were different as well. Total revenue from personal income tax will decline somewhat in this year due to the adopted amendments to the Personal Income Tax Act. The beginning of the year saw adoption of the amendment to the Personal Income Tax Act, reducing the burden of tax-payers in lower income brackets by increasing general tax relief. Another amendment to the personal income tax act was also adopted in July, reducing the tax burden of tax payers in low income brackets by an additional general tax relief, as well as by introducing a new tax relief for beekeepers, a relief applicable to investments in self-employed activities and a special relief for professional athletes. The further reduction in payroll tax rates resulted in even lower revenue from this source. In the period of six months, the revenue from the payroll tax shrank by around 45% in real terms, year on year. In 2008, this tax will be paid for the last time before being phased out, in accordance with considerably reduced tax rates, totalling 1.1%, 2.3% and 4.4% in individual tax brackets. The average burden on the gross wage bill is hence estimated to decline from 3.4% in 2007 to 1.7% in 2008. July saw adoption of the act on the tax on profit from the sale of financial derivatives. In the first year of ownership, the sale of these instruments will thus be subject to a tax rate of 40%. Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 11 Thousands of people Growth, in % Selected labour market indicators I-XII V XII V V2008/ I-V 2008/ 0 2007/ 2007 2007 2007 2008 IV 2008 I-V 2007 0 2006 Registered labour force (A = B + C) 925.3 923.6 932.8 940.8 0.2 2.0 1.6 Persons in formal employment* 854.0 852.9 864.4 879.6 0.3 3.3 3.5 in enterprises and organisations 696.1 695.1 705.9 718.2 0.3 3.5 3.1 by those self-employed 69.9 69.8 70.8 72.3 0.6 4.6 5.1 self-employed and farmers 87.9 88.0 87.7 89.2 0.1 1.2 5.6 Registered unemployed 71.3 70.7 68.4 61.2 -2.0 -13.6 -16.9 women 39.1 39.2 36.7 32.6 -2.6 -15.8 -16.7 aged over 40 37.1 37.2 36.3 34.7 -0.7 -6.4 -6.5 unemployed more than 1 year 36.5 36.8 34.7 32.5 -0.6 -12.3 -12.8 Rate of reg. unemployment (C/A), in % 7.7 7.7 7.3 6.5 - - - male 6.3 6.1 6.1 5.4 - - - female 9.6 9.6 8.9 7.9 - - - Job vacancies 20.2 19.3 14.2 21.6 -0.4 6.7 6.6 for a fixed term, in % 76.3 79.1 69.8 74.4 - - - Number of persons hired 13.3 13.4 9.7 13.1 -15.3 3.9 2.6 lower education 4.1 4.7 2.6 5.0 -10.0 9.2 5.2 secondary education 7.2 6.9 5.6 6.6 -17.7 1.9 1.7 tertiary education 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 -20.6 -0.8 1.1 Sources of data: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'persons in employment according to administrative sources. In May, the number of persons in employment recorded the same growth as in April, while year on year, it decreased for the fifth month in a row. The growth rate was 0.3% compared to April (0.2%, seasonally adjusted) and 3.1% compared to May 2007. The largest increase in the number of people in formal employment was again recorded in construction (by 1,378 or 1.6%) and real estate, renting and business activities (by 677 or 0.8%), while it declined in mining (-0.7%), manufacturing (-0.1%, a decline for the first time this year at the monthly level) and in other community, social and personal services (-0.3%). The number of work permits for foreign workers is also still rising and totalled as much as 81,557, i.e. 37.0% more than a year before (see Graph 1). The number of registered unemployed, on the other hand, continues to decrease. It totalled 60,710 at the end of June, while the registered unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% in May (seasonally adjusted, it remained unchanged at 6.7%). Also in June, the number of employed persons who lost work was higher than the number of unemployed who were hired, and the gap is still widening. A total of 3,635 persons lost work, which is 224 more than in May and 31 less than in June 2007. 2,036 unemployed persons found work, 293 fewer than in May and 808 fewer than in June 2007. Only 495 first-time job-seekers were newly registered as unemployed, while the number of unemployed persons decreased by 2,003 for other reasons. In the first half of 2008, the number of persons who registered as unemployed dropped by 15.9% over the same period of 2007, but 17.8% fewer persons were hired compared to the same period last year, while the number of unemployed removed for other reasons was 20.2% lower than last year (see graph 2). Among the registered unemployed, in the first half of 2008 the largest decline was seen in the number of young unemployed and first-time job-seekers, and the smallest in the number of unemployed people aged over 50 and in the number of unemployed with a tertiary education. The share of young unemployed people decreased to 15.8%, whereas the share of unemployed people aged over 50 rose to 32.0%. The share of unemployed persons with a tertiary education increased as well, to 10.1%. In June, the number of registered vacancies and the number of persons hired decreased for the second month in a row. The former dropped by 6.4% relative to May and by 12.5% relative to June 2007, while the latter was 4.5% lower than in May and 3.7% lower than in June 2007. Given the significant increase in April, the total number of registered vacancies and the number of persons hired in the second quarter of 2008 increased compared to the same period last year (the former by 0.6% and the latter by 0.7%. The education structure of registered vacancies shifted in favour of vacancies demanding a secondary or tertiary education, while the structure of persons hired shifted in the opposite direction, as the number of hired people with a lower education was 6.8% higher, and the number of hired people with a secondary or tertiary education was, by a respective 0.8% and 9.5%, lower than in the same period last year. Graph 1: Work permits for foreigners (in 1,000) Graph 2: Changes in the number of registered _unemployed persons_ 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 □ For work □ For employment ■ Personal temporary □ Permanent Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Source of data: ESS. Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 I.'..'I CHANGE - New first-time job-seekers ---------Lost work Snurcp nf data: -•- Unemployed persons who found work ^^oï data ----A— Other outflows from unemployment (net) ESS. B C D E F Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 12 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in EUR V 2008 In nominal terms V 08/ IV 08 V 08/ V 07 I-V 08/ -V 07 In real terms V 08/ IV 08 V 08/ V 07 I-V 08/ I-V 07 Gross wage per employee, total 1,360.20 100.4 107.6 108.1 99.3 101.1 101.5 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,289.96 100.2 108.2 108.7 99.1 101.7 102.1 Agriculture 1,151.84 102.5 108.9 109.8 101.4 102.3 103.1 Fisheries 1,114.39 105.5 110.2 105.5 104.4 103.6 99.3 Mining and quarrying 1,859.24 111.3 117.7 112.1 110.1 110.6 105.3 Manufacturing 1,185.21 99.7 108.4 108.8 98.6 101.9 102.2 Electricity, gas, and water supply 1,683.66 101.3 108.5 109.5 100.2 102.0 102.8 Construction 1,144.14 101.2 107.3 108.3 100.1 100.9 101.7 Distributive trades 1,225.64 98.5 108.0 108.1 97.4 101.5 101.5 Hotels and restaurants 1,033.76 103.0 111.1 110.5 101.9 104.5 103.7 Transport, storage & communications 1,414.25 99.2 106.2 107.5 98.1 99.8 101.0 Financial intermediation 2,155.31 101.5 106.6 108.6 100.4 100.2 101.9 Real estate, renting, business services 1,447.90 101.3 109.0 109.5 100.2 102.5 102.8 Public services (activities L-O) 1,572.88 101.1 106.7 107.0 100.0 100.3 100.5 Public administration 1,635.85 100.6 110.0 111.0 99.5 103.3 104.3 Education 1,637.74 101.1 105.6 105.6 100.0 99.3 99.1 Health and social work 1,463.10 101.7 104.4 105.3 100.6 98.1 98.9 Other social and personal services 1,486.81 101.1 106.7 105.3 100.0 100.3 98.8 Source of data: SORS and IMAD calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. In May, the nominal gross wage per employee increased by 0.4%, while, given the 1.1% monthly inflation, it dropped by 0.7% in real terms. In the private sector (activities A to K), the gross wage recorded only a slight increase in nominal terms (by 0.2%), while dropping by 0.9% in real terms. Given that May was two working days shorter, wages in the private sector were expected to decline in nominal terms. Wages in manufacturing, distributive trades and transport, storage and communications declined in nominal terms, while wages in other activities rose mainly on account of the increased disbursement of payments for overtime work. In industry and construction (C, D, E, F), the gross wage increased slightly in nominal terms (by 0.3%). The gross wage per employee in production services (G, H, I) declined by 0.9% in nominal terms. The largest increase in the gross wage per employee was recorded in business services (J, K), by 1.3%. In public services (L to O), the gross wage increased by 1.1% in nominal terms, while remaining at the level of April in real terms. Wage rises were mainly due to regular promotions, and in health and social work also to increased payments for overtime work. These payments also induced wage rises in other community, social and personal services, which mainly belong to the private sector. In the first five months, the nominal gross wage increased by 8.1% year on year (compared to 5.6% in the same period last year), and by 1.5% in real terms, which is less than last year (3.0%). The effect of the extraordinary adjustment of wages for last year's higher inflation (carried out at the beginning of the year) on average nominal wage growth in the period will fade out gradually in the following months. Wage growth will depend to a greater extent on the higher number of working days (three working days more than in 2007), business performance reflected in the level of 13th month payments at the end of the year, and the beginning of the disbursement of wages in the public sector according to the new wage system. As inflation started to soar only in the second quarter last year, its influence on real wage growth in the first quarter of 2008 was higher than it will be in the rest of the year. In May, the dynamics of monthly growth of the net wage per employee also matched the dynamics of gross wage growth. As the gross wage almost stagnated, the tax burden on wages did not change and net wage growth matched gross wage growth. In the first five months of 2008, the net wage per employee increased by 7.8%. Wage movements have so far been in line with the expectations from the Spring Forecast. In the next months, only gross wage growth in the public sector will be somewhat faster than foreseen, given the beginning of the disbursement of wages according to the new system (see also SEM 6/2008 p. 12). Graph: Y-o-y changes of the average gross wage per employee 112 o r— r— i— i— i— i— i— i— r— r— i— r— o < 5 O O O O O < to CO CO CO °o CO O O o o o C m O > ra 0 .g 3 ra -> n. S < 5 Public services Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. A B C D E F G H J K L M N O Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 13 Selected economic indicators, growth rates, in % V 2008/ IV 2008 V 2008/ V 2007 -V 2008/ I-V 2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 Production value1 -3.6 -0.3 2.8 7.5 - highly export-oriented industries2 -5.1 6.8 10.6 16.4 - mainly export-oriented industries3 -2.9 -3.2 -0.6 5.7 - mainly domestic market-oriented industries4 -2.6 -2.7 0.5 0.7 Average number of employees -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 Labour productivity -3.5 -0.3 2.6 6.6 Level of inventories5 2.6 10.3 10.4 8.2 Turnover5 -5.9 -1.1 3.5 6.8 New orders5 -2.6 -22.2 -10.3 4.3 Domestic industrial producer prices 0.6 3.4 3.0 3.5 - domestic market 0.4 6.3 5.7 4.3 - foreign market 0.8 1.0 0.8 2.9 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Veal growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG, DK, DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES, earned over 70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB, DC, DD, DH, DJ, DL, DN) which have earned 50-70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA, DE, DF, DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets _in the last three years; 5real growth._ Production activity in manufacturing declined again in May. The general slowdown is also reflected on the labour market. According to seasonally and working-day adjusted data, industrial production dropped by 0.8% compared to April. The volume of production in manufacturing also declined relative to May 2007 by 0.3%. Compared with the previous month, the number of persons in formal employment dropped by 0.1%, to 230,142. The number of persons employed in manufacturing thus remained at the level of May 2007, but dropped by 776 compared to November 2007, when it reached its 12-month high. The smaller contributions of the two industries which underpinned this year's growth of manufacturing's activity had a significant impact on the year-on-year decline in production. Most manufacturing industries recorded decreased production activity compared to May 2007, which was a result of one working day fewer than in May 2007, but also to the continuing decline in domestic as well as foreign demand. On average in the first five months of this year, the level of new orders was roughly 10% lower year on year. In addition to these two factors, low production activity also reflected weaker production growth in two manufacturing sub-industries, which were crucial for continued manufacturing growth in 2008. These are the manufacture of transport equipment and the chemical industry, which strengthened their production significantly in May and June 2007, respectively, so that in the following months their year-on-year growth rates are not expected to reach the high values of the first four months of this year. On average over the first four months, production volumes in these industries recorded 18.1% and 14.3% growth rates, respectively; in May, their respective production volumes were 4.1% and 7.5% higher than in May 2007. Production activity accelerated somewhat faster than in the previous months in the manufacture of machinery and equipment, which recorded 6.9% year-on-year growth in May, while it averaged 4.1% in the first four months of the year. In the first five months, the largest production volume declines were recorded in the leather, wood-processing and food industries. Perception of the business environment deteriorated in July, mainly due to the low level of new orders. The seasonally adjusted confidence indicator value decreased again in July (by 1 p.p.), which was largely related to the lower estimate of overall order books. According to the quarterly survey on the limiting factors to production, an increasing number of companies face insufficient domestic and foreign demand. On the other hand, the share of companies reporting a shortage of skilled labour as the main obstacle to production, which was characteristic of the previous year and a half, decreased. The level of capacity utilisation also decreased (by 1.9 p.p. to 83.6%), whereas the assessment of current production capacities improved. Graph 1: Contribution to growth by manufacturing's _sub-industry_ Graph 2: Confidence indicator in manufacturing in the EU and Slovenia fjjjj I-IV 2008 / I-IV 2007 V2008 / V2007 □ Other manufacturing activities □ Manufacture of machinery and equipment ■ Manufacture of transport equipment □ Manufacture of chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. 18 15 12 4 9 Ü 6 ! 3 ^ 8 0 1 -3 m -6 l\ ^Jv \ V \ \ v \ /yf \ i * \ . / t \ /V 1 v Source of data: Business and consumer surveys, EC. 4 3 2 0 12 Energy Sector Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 14 Selected indicators, growth rates in % Q2 2007, GWh Q2 2008, GWh Q2 2008/Q2 2007, % Production of electricity 3,091 3,689 19.4 Prod. in hydroelectric plants 770 1,074 39.5 Prod. in thermal plants 851 1,195 40.3 Prod. in nuclear power plant 1,469 1,420 -3.3 Consumption of electricity 3,279 3,112 -5.1 Through distribution network 2,509 2,529 0.8 Direct consumers 719 532 -26.1 Transmission losses 51 51 0.8 Net electricity exports -188 577 - Source of data: ELES, Electricity Balance for September and December 2007; calculations by IMAD. A large surplus in the balance of electricity production and consumption was recorded in the second quarter of 2008. The highest quarterly production so far more than covered domestic electricity consumption, which declined due to the phasing out of part of production in the metal industry (see table). In the second quarter, electricity output recorded a significant increase. Production in thermal power plants, in particular, was much higher than expected. Production in both hydroelectric and thermal power plants rose considerably compared to production in the second quarter of 2007 (by as much as two fifths). Production in thermal power plants notably exceeded the production projected in the national electricity balance for 2008 (EEB), as it was as much as 17.0% higher than forecast; production in hydroelectric power plants exceeded the EEB figure by 3.5%. Production in hydroelectric power plants increased significantly year on year, largely on account of its low level in the second quarter last year as a consequence of extremely low water levels of Slovenian rivers. The notably higher increase in thermal power plants' output can also be largely attributed to the low-base effect, as last spring the country's biggest thermal power plant (Šoštanj) conducted its most demanding regular overhaul to date in terms of investment and time required. As a result, the capacity of the power plant somewhat increased. During the overhaul, preparatory works for the connection of two 42-MW gas generators were also carried out; one of the generators was already in trial operation in May. This gas-steam process has increased the total efficiency of blocks 4 and 5, reduced specific CO2 emissions and increased electricity output. Electricity output in the Krško nuclear power plant decreased by a few percent compared to the second quarter last year, but also relative to the electricity balance (see table). Total electricity production increased by almost a fifth, year on year, and was also 4.7% higher than projected. As in the first quarter, electricity consumption in the second quarter also decreased as a result of lower consumption by direct users. Due to the phasing out of production, towards the end of 2007, in some metal processing facilities (Kidričevo, Ruše) which are supplied with electricity directly from the transmission network, total direct consumption declined by more than a quarter. Given that the increase in consumption from the distribution network was also very small, total electricity consumption decreased by a good 5%. The large increase in production and lower consumption allowed for high net exports of electricity. Exports notably increased, while imports recorded a slight decline. The electricity surplus in the second quarter of 2008 totalled as much as 577 GWh, or 15.6% of output, and was the largest in the last few years (see also graph). Electricity exports have also posted a record high, totalling as much as 1,949 GWh in the second quarter, 46.4% more than in the same period last year. Due to the strong electricity supply, imports could reduce by 9.4%. Whereas electricity exports in the period from April to June were 40-50% higher than in the same months last year, imports in April were still around 30% higher, while in June they were already 30% lower than in the comparable month last year. Graph: Production, consumption and net exports of electricity, by quarter 3,900 3,700 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Net electricity exports (right axis) ■ Consumption Q1 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 Q2 Source of data: ELES, Electric balance, various issues; calculations by IMAD. Production acc. to EEB Transport Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 15 Selected transport indicators Absolute data Growth, % I-III 2007 I-III 2008 I-III 2008/ I-III 2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 Passenger transport Railways, in million passenger km 196 200 1.8 2.4 Roads, in million passenger km 209 206 -1.3 -3.9 Urban, in thousand passengers 26,289 25,476 -3.1 -3.5 Air, in million passengers km 183 227 23.9 13.7 Airport, in thousand passengers 251 302 20.4 13.3 Freight transport Railways, in million tonne km 918 869 -5.3 6.8 Roads, in million tonne km 3,103 3,9991 28.9 13.4 Maritime, in million tonne km 10,813 14,524 34.3 -5.2 Harbour, in thousand tonnes 4,282 4,248 -0.8 2.5 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1 provisional data. In the first quarter of 2008, the passenger transport sector saw a further decrease in bus transport, while air transport and airport traffic recorded stronger growth. The number of city bus passengers declined by 3.1%, compared with the first quarter of 2007. The volume of intercity and urban bus transport also dropped by 1.3%. Railway passenger transport increased somewhat. Growth of air passenger transport strengthened notably in the first quarter of 2008 and increased by almost a quarter relative to the same quarter last year). Airport passenger traffic also increased by more than a fifth. This year's decrease in the volume of road passenger transport is smaller than the average decline in the last four years (-4.7%), while city bus passenger transport is declining at a similar pace as in the last few years (-3.3%). Growth rates, in air transport in particular, but also in airport traffic, notably exceeded the average growth in the last four years (9.1% and 15.5%, respectively; see also table), which is also linked to Slovenia's Presidency of the EU. In the freight transport sector, maritime transport saw the largest increase, road transport increased significantly, while railway transport recorded a slight drop. Freight transport by rail declined by 5.3%, while freight transport by road increased by 28.9%. Maritime freight transport posted the largest increase in the first quarter year on year, by 34.3%, while the volume of transhipment slightly declined. Freight transport by rail has increased by 4.3% annually on average in the last four years, but in the first quarter of 2008, year-on-year growth of road freight transport nevertheless significantly exceeded the average growth in the last four years (18.6%). Maritime transport growth in the first quarter of 2008 was also much higher than the average growth in the last four years (15.2%). Harbour freight transport has increased annually by 9.6% on average in the last four years. Among transport activities, road freight transport has recorded the strongest growth in the structure of value added in transport, storage and communications in the last few years. In 2007, the three main transport activities within the transport, storage and communications sector were road freight transport, which employed 20,697 or 37.4% of employees, railway freight transport (7,991 or 14.4%) and bus transport (3,992 or 7.2%) (with sole proprietors counted as employees). The corresponding shares of value added generated by these activities (except that the third highest value added was generated by shipping) are 25.0%, 11.6% and 6.3% (see graph). Looking at the structure of value added in transport, storage and communications, in 2003-2007 the largest increase within transport activities (by 4.5 p.p.) was recorded in the share of road freight transport, while the shares of railway freight transport and shipping decreased by 1.3 p.p. and 2.4 p.p., respectively (a similar direction and intensity of changes was also observed in the structure of employees). The decreased importance of shipping can be attributed to Slovenia's entry into the EU and the consequent loss of part of the market. In this period, the number of employees in the transport segment of transport, storage and communications sector rose by 4,453, to 41,426. The number of employees in road freight transport increased by 4,315, while railway transport and bus transport recorded fewer employees than in 2003 (320 and 274, respectively). In terms of sustainable development, the increase in the volume of road freight transport and the decline in the shares of railway transport and bus transport are not favourable. Graph: Value added of transport activities in transport, storage and communications in 2003-2007 30 25 20 % 15 10 5 0 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 Road freight Railway Forwarding Transhipment and storage Bus Air Airport Source of data: AJPES, calculations by IMAD. Note: Including companies and sole proprietors. Other State Budgets for 2007 and 2008 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 19 In EUR m Nominal growth rate Share of GDP, in % 20071 20082 Suppl. B. 2008 2007/ 2006 2008/ 2007 Suppl. B. 08/07 Suppl. B. 08/ 2008 2006 2007 2008 Suppl. B. 2008 1. REVENUES, TOTAL 7,800 8,635 8,885 5.5 10.7 13.9 2.9 24.3 23.3 23.8 24.5 Personal income tax 919 1,113 1,113 -21.1 21.1 21.1 0.0 3.8 2.7 3.1 3.1 Corporate income tax 1,113 1,098 1,260 18.1 -1.4 13.2 14.8 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.5 Social security contributions 48 52 53 8.7 8.5 8.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taxes on payroll & workforce 418 262 263 -11.6 -37.3 -37.1 0,3 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.7 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,434 4,667 4,767 10.7 5.2 7.5 2.1 13.2 13.2 12.9 13.1 Value added tax 2,907 3,158 3,186 7.0 8.6 9.6 0.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.8 Excise duties 1,158 1,119 1,190 21.1 -3.4 2.8 6.4 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.3 Taxes on international trade and transactions 117 130 130 131.0 11.1 11.1 0,0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Other revenues 402 510 516 9.5 27.0 28.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 Receipts from the EU budget 347 802 783 -0.3 130.7 125.4 -2.3 1.1 1.0 2.2 2.2 2. EXPENDITURES, TOTAL 7,763 8,865 8,816 1.8 14.2 13.6 -0.6 25.1 23.1 24.4 24.3 Wages, contributions and other personnel expenditures in government bodies and public institutions 1,031 1,118 1,136 4.9 8.5 10.3 1.7 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 Expenditure on goods and services in government bodies and public institutions 788 989 941 14.8 25.5 19.4 -4.9 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.6 Domestic and foreign interest payments 351 328 328 -5.7 -6.5 -6.5 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 Reserves 68 44 57 55.7 -35.5 -16.2 29.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 Subsidies 403 503 518 5.3 24.7 28.4 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 Transfers to individuals and households 962 1,013 1,046 -0.8 5.3 8.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 Transfers to pension and disability insurance 1,076 1,204 1,170 -1.8 11.8 8.7 -2.8 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.2 Transfers to public institutions 1,630 1,746 1,753 2.2 7.1 7.6 0.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 Other current transfers 236 221 234 -50.6 -6.5 -0.9 5.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 Capital expenditures and transfers 862 1,325 1,258 17.4 53.6 45.8 -5.1 2.4 2.6 3.6 3.5 Payments to the EU budget 356 375 375 23.6 5.5 5.5 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 3. DEFICIT (-) / SURPLUS (+) (1-2) 37 -230 69 - - - - -0.8 0.1 -0.6 0.2 Source of data: Ministry of Finance, Public Finance Bulletin, Supplementary Budget of the Republic of Slovenia for 2008 (Official Gazette of the RS, no. 58/2008); calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1Draft Annual Financial Statement of the Budget of the Republic of Slovenia. 2Amendments to the Budget of the Republic of Slovenia for 2008. State budget for 2008 June saw adoption of the supplementary budget for 2008. Compared with the amendments to the budget for 2008, state budget revenues will increase by EUR 250 m or 2.9% according to the supplementary budget, while state budget expenditures will decrease by EUR 49.7 m or 0.6%. The supplementary budget forecasts that the state budget will record a surplus of EUR 69 m or 0.2% of GDP instead of a deficit in the amount of EUR 230 m or 0.6% of GDP. According to the adopted supplementary budget, state budget revenues will increase by 13.9% compared to those in 2007 (by 8.3% in real terms). The share of state budget revenues in GDP will thus rise by 1.2% of GDP in 2008. Compared with the amendments to the state budget for 2008, the supplementary budget forecasts increases particularly in revenues from corporate income tax, value added tax and excise duties. According to the supplementary budget, only the volume of funds received from the EU budget is expected to decrease (by 2.4%). Achieving the budget flows foreseen in the supplementary budget involves certain risks. Risks associated with possible deviations of macroeconomic aggregates from forecasts taken into account during the preparation of the supplementary budget are somewhat higher this year, especially due to uncertainties in the international environment. The supplementary budget forecasts drawing of EU funds in the amount of EUR 783 m, which is 125.4% more than in 2007. The supplementary budget for 2008 forecasts that state budget expenditure will increase by 13.6 % (by 8.0% in real terms) compared with 2007. The share of expenditure in GDP will rise by 1.2% of GDP (from 23.1% of GDP in 2007 to 24.3% of GDP) according to the adopted supplementary budget for 2008. Compared with the amendments to the budget for 2008, expenditure for goods and services will decrease by EUR 48.5 m, especially due to a decrease in expenditure on special materials and services for the Slovenian Army. According to the adopted supplementary budget, expenditure for goods and services will decline, but it will nevertheless rise by 19.4% relative to 2007. The supplementary budget forecasts that transfers to the pension fund will also decline (by EUR 34 m), as a result of higher estimations of social security contributions; the increase will total 8.7% relative to 2007. Capital expenditure will decrease by EUR 67 m, but it will be nevertheless still nearly 46% higher than in 2007, according to the forecasts of the supplementary budget. While capital expenditure will decline, expenditure on subsidies will record an increase and will be 28.4% higher than in 2007, which, in terms of development, signifies a deterioration of the original budget's economic structure. According to the supplementary budget, expenditure for transfers to individuals and households will increase as well, by State Budgets for 2007 and 2008 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 20 around EUR 33 m, especially on account of the legislation changes increasing child allowances. Expenditure on wages in government bodies and public institutions will increase due to the implementation of the agreed wage adjustment according to the Salary System in the Public Sector Act. After the adoption of the supplementary budget, the predicted state budget balance for 2008 has improved (by 0.8% of GDP) due to the increase in budget revenues and the reduction in budget expenditures. The supplementary budget forecasts that state budget revenues, as well as expenditures will increase at a faster pace than the projected economic growth, which means that in 2008, their shares in GDP are set to increase again after the 2007 drop. State budget for 2007 According to the draft Annual Financial statement of the Budget of the Republic of Slovenia for 2007, state budget revenues totalled EUR 7,800 m; they increased by 5.5% in nominal terms relative to the year before. The share of state budget revenues in GDP declined by 1% of GDP in 2007, from 24.3% of GDP in 2006 to 23.3% of GDP. Revenues from corporate income tax, domestic taxes on goods and services and taxes on international trade and transactions rose faster than total revenue. Revenues from payroll and personal income taxes in 2007 even dropped compared to 2006, which is attributable to the payroll and personal income tax reforms and, in personal income tax, also to changes in the system of financing municipalities. The volume of funds received from the EU budget in 2007 was also smaller than in 2006. According to the draft Annual Financial Statement of the Republic of Slovenia for 2007, state budget expenditures totalled EUR 7,763 m; they increased by a nominal 1.8% compared to the year before. Their share in GDP decreased by 2% of GDP, from 25.1% of GDP to 23.1% of GDP. In the structure of state budget expenditure, only capital expenditure and payments to the EU budget (by 0.2% of GDP, each), and expenditure on goods and services (by 0.1% of GDP) increased their shares in GDP. The most notable decline was observed in the share of state budget transfers (by 1.4% of GDP): transfers to the pension fund decreased by 0.4% of GDP (contributions for pension and disability insurance were higher due to higher inflation and more favourable trends), transfers to individuals and households by 0.3% of GDP (legal amendments to the rules on valorisation) and transfers from the state budget to local government budgets by 0.7% of GDP (changes in the system of financing municipalities). The share of expenditure on wages, contributions and other personnel expenditure declined as well (by 0.1% of GDP), as did the shares of expenditure on interest payments (by 0.2% of GDP) and subsidies (by 0.1% of GDP). The year 2007 also saw adoption of the supplementary budget in the middle of the year. Compared with the amendments to the state budget for 2007, revenues remained unchanged after the adoption of the supplementary budget, whereas expenditures increased by EUR 60.5 m, mainly due to changes in railway transport financing. According to the supplementary budget, the budget deficit was predicted to widen by the amount of increased expenditures. Realised state budget revenues in 2007 were EUR 35.3 m higher than forecast in the supplementary budget for 2007, while realised expenditures were EUR 385 m lower. The supplementary budget was exceeded by 0.5% on the revenue side, while on the expenditure side the actual realisation was 4.7% lower. Revenues from corporate income tax and domestic taxes on goods and services were higher than planned, while the volume of funds received from the EU budget declined. On the expenditure side, the actual capital expenditure (EUR 232 m) was smaller than envisaged in the supplementary budget, so that the budget structure deteriorated in terms of the foreseen development orientation. Transfers to the pension fund decreased, as did transfers to public institutions, and subsidies and expenditure for goods and services. Payments of foreign interest rates and payments to the EU budget were somewhat higher than forecast in the supplementary budget. Due to the higher revenues and unrealised expenditures, the state budget recorded a surplus of EUR 37 m (0.1% of GDP) in 2007, instead of the deficit of EUR 383 m predicted in the supplementary budget. Graph 1: Shares of state budget _expenditures, in % of GDP_ revenues and Graph 2: State budget balance, in % of GDP 26 25 □State budget revenues □State budgetexpenditures 24 ■ 23 ■ 22 21 20 0.5 q. 0.0 Q O o £ -0.5 -1.0 2006 2007 2008 2008 supplementary Source of data: MF, Public Finance Bulletin, for 2008, Official budget Gazette, nos. 114/2007 and 158/2008. 2006 2007 2008 2008 supplementary Source of data: MF, Public Finance Bulletin, for 2008, Official budget Gazette, nos. 114/2007 and 158/2008. Available and Allocated Assets of Households and Possession of Durable Goods, 2000-2006 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 P. 21 Per household Real terms, in SIT, 2006 = 1001 Share in %, current prices 2000 2003 2006 2000 2003 2006 Available assets 3,735,712 3,884,486 4,104,896 100.0 100.0 100.0 Income 2 3,599,407 3,705,879 3,932,395 96.4 (100.0) 95.4 (100.0) 95.8 (100.0) Income from employment 2,215,940 2,261,561 2,476,271 (61.6) (61.0) (63.0) Income from self-employment 227,681 235,282 225,146 (6.3) (6.3) (5.7) Pensions with supplements 913,621 962,230 979,576 (25.4) (26.0) (24.9) Other social and family benefits 209,658 204,863 205,582 (5.8) (5.5) (5.2) Property income 13,737 19,475 21,862 (0.4) (0.5) (0.6) Money gifts and transfers 18,768 22,467 23,959 (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) Receipts from sale 3 120,727 125,637 138,033 3.2 3.2 3.4 Other receipts 4 15,579 52,970 34,467 0.4 1.4 0.8 Allocated assets 4,111,324 4,029,028 4,319,879 100.0 100.0 100.0 Consumption expenditure 5 3,697,278 3,585,145 3,674,104 89.9 (100.0) 89.0 (100.0) 85.1 (100.0) Food and non-alcoholic beverages 698,396 617,099 608,864 (20.2) (18.4) (16.6) Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 92,324 85,049 93,154 (2.1) (2.3) (2.5) Clothing and footwear 279,788 285,187 293,055 (9.0) (8.6) (8.0) Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 480,858 473,736 456,933 (112) (117) (12.4) Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 276,060 247,877 278,214 (7.6) (6.8) (7.6) Health 63,974 58,016 65,118 (18) (18) (18) Transport 671,391 617,673 687,796 (17.8) (17.1) (18.7) Communications 113,848 151,580 191,945 (3.2) (4.6) (5.2) Recreation and culture 335,298 392,698 391,351 (9.5) (11.0) (10.7) Education 37,237 36,714 39,903 (0.9) (0.9) (11) Hotels, cafes and restaurants 229,723 222,332 150,547 (5.8) (5.9) (4.1) Miscellaneous goods and services 6 409,506 398,572 417,225 (10.8) (11.0) (11.4) Other expenditure 414,046 443,883 645,775 10.1 (100.0) 11.0 (100.0) 14.9 (100.0) Expenditure for a dwelling, house 7 295,630 304,884 462,739 (71.4) (68.7) (71.7) Other expenditure 8 118,416 138,999 183,036 (28.6) (31.3) (28.3) Possession of selected durables, share in % 2000 2003 2006 Video camera 8.5 9.1 12.1 Tumble dryer 13.0 15.6 22.4 Dishwasher 30.1 37.5 45.0 Personal computer 33.5 44.9 54.1 Mobile phone 22.0 80.1 86.3 Source of data: SORS (Household Budget Survey - HBS, First release, 10. 7. 2008), calculations by IMAD. Notes: deflated by CPI; individual groups of consumption expenditure are deflated by corresponding deflators. 2 Income includes all financial income received by household members in 12 months, except for receipts from sale and other receipts. 3 Receipts from sales of movable and immovable assets as well as securities. 4 Winnings at gambling, compensation for nationalised or dispossessed property, inheritance and legacy, income from life insurance, from insurance companies. 5 Classified into 12 groups according to the COICOP classification. 6 Personal care, other personal items, social protection, insurance, financial services, other services.7 Purchase of a dwelling, renovations, major works. 8 Taxes and self-imposed contributions, savings, money transfers and gifts, life _insurance, voluntary pension and disability insurance, fines and indemnities._ We have analysed data from the First Release of the Household Budget Survey for 2006. A more detailed analysis will be published as a working paper upon release of the final data. The data show that in 2006 the allocated assets of households increased more than their available assets. The share of consumption expenditure remained unchanged; in the last few years, the highest share of consumer expenditure has been spent on transport. Allocated assets of households increased more (by 2.2% in real terms) than available assets (1.6%) in 2006. It must be pointed out that the group of allocated assets - other expenditure - also comprises some elements of savings (see note 8 under the table), so that allocated assets do not only include household expenditure. Consumption expenditure was almost equal in real terms as in the previous year. Within that, the largest increases were observed in household expenditure on health (8.5%) and communications (6.8%), while expenditure on hotels, cafes and restaurants recorded the largest drop (13.9%, a two-digit drop for the third year in a row). On the other hand, the largest group of available assets - income from employment - rose by 3.7%. Money gifts and transfers doubled, but they account for a mere 0.6% of assets. Other social and family benefits decreased; the level of pensions and supplements was similar to the 2005 level. Comparing the data from the survey with MF's data from the consolidated balance of public finances, MF's data show a higher real increase in social benefits (by 2.7%). Compared with 2000, the expenditure of the average household increased by 0.8% annually on average in real terms in the period to 2006, while available assets increased at an annual rate of 1.6% (see also graph). Available and Allocated Assets of Households and Possession of Durable Goods, 2000-2006 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. 22 In 2004-2006, the highest share of household expenditure was allocated for transport. Before that period, households spent most on food. Higher expenditure on transport is a result of a decrease in the share of expenditure on basic goods (food) due to a higher standard of living, and partially also of increased car purchases in that period (from the end of 2002 until the second half of 2004 and from the second half of 20061 onwards) and oil price rises. The share of expenditure for transport was otherwise 0.5 p.p. lower than in the previous year. The structure of consumption expenditure did not change much within the 12-month period. The shares of expenditure for the housing and furnishings groups increased, which can be linked to the boom in the acquisition of dwellings and, consequently, their furnishing. The share of expenditure on various durables and services, such as personal care and financial services, also increased. The share of expenditure on hotels and restaurants again declined and was nearly a third lower compared to 2000. Looking at the structure of this expenditure group (hotels, cafes and restaurants), the share is decreasing mostly due to decreased expenditure in canteens, restaurants and cafes (a drop from 4.8% in 2000 to 3.1% in 2006), while the share of expenditure on hotels remained almost unchanged (from 0.98% to 0.96%). Compared to 2000, households reduced expenditure on food eaten outside the home by 40% in real terms, while expenditure on hotels dropped by almost a tenth2. Households allocate more and more assets for investment in a dwelling or a house, and for social security. In the structure of allocated assets, the share of other expenditure increased again, to 14.9%, which is 4.8 p.p. more than six years before; expenditure has increased by more than a half since 2000. Over the past few years, households have allocated more assets for construction of houses and renovation of flats, which is 1Data from HSB for the reference year (e.g. 2006) are calculated using data for a period of three consecutive years (e.g. 2005-2007). 2Deflated by the deflator of the whole group. suggested also by data on the growth of housing loans. Households have also increased expenditure for social security and old age, which is corroborated by the increase in the share of other expenditure within total expenditure, climbing from 2.9% to 4.2% in six years. The ratio of allocated to available assets per household remained roughly at the previous year's level. The ratio of allocated to available assets (calculated from nominal data) was highest in 2000 (households spent 10.1% more than they earned), probably still under the influence of the extensive borrowing in 1999 (see note 1 under text) prior to VAT introduction. As with other debt indicators, HSB also indicates that the ratio of allocated to available assets increased again in 2004; however, we have to bear in mind that allocated assets also comprise savings (see note 8 under table). If other expenditure which comprises savings is excluded from the allocated assets, the ratio has decreased somewhat since 2004 according to both calculations. With other expenditure included, the ratio increased again somewhat in 2006; with other expenditure excluded, it remained at approximately the same level as in 2005. Excluding other expenditure, households spent almost 1% more assets in 2006 than they earned (see graph). Looking at possession of consumer durables in households, microwaves, CD-devices and mobile phones recorded the greatest increase in ownership rates in 2000-2006. Most households own a refrigerator (98.3%), washing machine and colour TV (96.6%). While in 2000, only just over a tenth of households had a microwave and CD-devices, the shares of households with these appliances have risen to 43.1% and 49.3%, respectively, in 2006. The share of households owning a mobile phone is higher (86.3%) than the share of those who have a stationary phone (83.8%); six years ago, only just over a fifth of households had a mobile phone, while more than 90% of households owned a stationary phone. 79.8% of households have a car. Graph: Structure of available and allocated assets per household, 2000-2006 4,500,000 4,000,000 ■ 3,500,000 ■ t= 3,000,000 ■ w 2,500,000 - 2,000,000 ■ 1,500,000 ♦ ESS m 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. □Allocated assets - other expenditure ^Allocated assets - expenditure for a dwelling, house ^Allocated assets - consumption expenditure □Available assets - other receipts ^Available assets - receipts from sale □ Available assets - income o Ratio of allocated to available assets, right axis ♦ Ratio of allocated (excluding other expenditure) to available assets, right axis Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 2 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate) Real growth rates in % 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 forecast forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 616 581 596 579 591 603 612 -4.4 -3.8 -3.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 B Fishing 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20.4 1.5 -4.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 C Mining and quarrying 117 128 137 135 136 135 131 0.4 7.5 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 -3.0 D Manufacturing 5,783 6,016 6,419 6,913 7,256 7,608 8,023 3.6 8.5 8.3 5.0 4.8 5.4 E Electricity, gas and water supply 639 729 781 820 861 887 914 5.7 5.7 3.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 F Construction 1,179 1,320 1,645 1,970 2,098 2,141 2,217 4.9 15.2 18.7 6.5 2.0 3.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 2,621 2,835 3,146 3,410 3,555 3,692 3,860 4.5 6.1 7.6 4.3 3.8 4.5 H Hotels and restaurants 481 531 573 630 661 691 719 1.2 2.9 2.4 5.0 4.5 4.0 I Transport, storage and communications 1,680 1,847 2,087 2,212 2,355 2,497 2,636 6.1 9.4 6.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 J Financial intermediation 1,098 1,164 1,192 1,469 1,550 1,674 1,801 10.5 9.8 12.1 5.5 8.0 7.5 K Real estate, renting and business services 3,697 4,084 4,371 4,646 4,844 5,064 5,294 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 L Public administration and defence 1,408 1,487 1,569 1,647 1,700 1,749 1,784 2.9 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.0 M Education 1,240 1,372 1,448 1,518 1,545 1,574 1,606 3.3 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 N Health and social work 1,149 1,249 1,296 1,339 1,373 1,404 1,453 5.2 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.2 3.5 O Other community and personal services 765 875 914 986 1,008 1,028 1,049 3.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 P Private households with employed persons 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5.9 -3.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 22,481 24,227 26,183 28,284 29,541 30,757 32,110 4.0 6.0 6.2 4.4 4.1 4.4 Taxes on products and services 3,456 3,687 3,838 4,152 4,318 4,484 4,688 4.7 3.9 5.1 4.0 3.8 4.5 Less: subsidies on products and services 122 131 162 140 144 147 150 -0.4 10.0 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.0 GDP 25,814 27,783 29,859 32,295 33,715 35,093 36,648 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.7/2008 p. A 3 In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate), current prices Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 26,677 28,243 30,448 33,542 36,308 39,234 42,270 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income with the rest of the world -314 -244 -328 -702 -881 -938 -976 -0.9 -1.1 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 26,364 28,000 30,120 32,839 35,427 38,296 41,294 99.1 98.9 97.9 97.6 97.6 97.7 4. Net current transfers with the rest of the world -44 -144 -210 -286 -48 -12 -30 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (3+4) 26,320 27,856 29,910 32,553 35,378 38,285 41,264 98.6 98.2 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.6 6. Final consumption expenditure 19,628 20,717 22,116 23,640 25,885 27,760 29,746 73.4 72.6 70.5 71.3 70.8 70.4 Private consumption 14,494 15,245 16,259 17,537 19,137 20,485 21,897 54.0 53.4 52.3 52.7 52.2 51.8 Government consumption 5,134 5,472 5,857 6,103 6,748 7,274 7,849 19.4 19.2 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.6 7. GROSS SAVINGS (5-6) 6,692 7,139 7,794 8,914 9,494 10,525 11,518 25.3 25.6 26.6 26.1 26.8 27.2 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 7,387 7,705 8,634 10,490 11,180 11,628 12,417 27.3 28.4 31.3 30.8 29.6 29.4 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -695 -566 -839 -1,576 -1,686 -1,103 -899 -2.0 -2.8 -4.7 -4.6 -2.8 -2.1 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS; IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 25,814 27,783 29,859 32,295 33,715 35,093 36,648 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 1. Exports of goods and services 15,247 17,298 19,982 23,184 25,442 27,825 30,525 10.1 12.3 13.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 2. Imports of goods and services 15,418 17,115 20,159 23,761 25,781 27,727 30,125 6.7 12.2 14.1 8.5 7.5 8.6 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -170 183 -177 -577 -339 98 399 2,0* 0,0* -0,9* 0,7* 1,3* 0,9* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 19,019 20,182 21,569 22,704 23,544 24,331 25,172 2.8 4.1 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.5 Private consumption 14,077 14,881 15,858 16,766 17,375 18,023 18,712 2.7 4.0 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 Government consumption (individual and collective) 4,942 5,301 5,712 5,937 6,169 6,308 6,460 3.2 4.4 1.4 3.9 2.3 2.4 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 6,966 7,418 8,466 10,169 10,510 10,664 11,077 0.4 9.9 17.8 3.4 1.5 3.9 Gross fixed capital formation 6,390 6,953 7,813 9,325 9,828 10,079 10,533 2.5 8.4 17.2 5.4 2.6 4.5 Changes in inventories and valuables* 575 465 653 844 682 585 544 -0,5* 0,6* 0,6* -0,5* -0,3* -0,1* Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS, IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. Note: *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 7/2008 p. A 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QI QII QIII QIV QI 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 106.9 112.8 116.5 123.7 131.7 127.7 132.6 129.3 135.5 129.6 127.9 134.3 135.7 135.6 117.2 135.0 147.8 142.0 116.8 124.4 130.0 134.3 139.2 133.2 C Mining and quarrying 104.9 97.6 104.2 115.0 118.6 113.2 129.7 106.7 124.8 118.9 133.5 135.0 120.6 91.9 121.2 107.1 132.2 144.9 97.4 105.7 118.0 133.1 134.0 111.9 D Manufacturing 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.2 132.9 128.0 134.2 130.9 136.7 130.1 128.6 136.0 138.1 138.2 117.1 137.4 150.1 143.1 116.8 124.2 130.9 135.2 140.7 135.6 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 99.6 89.4 88.0 87.9 86.8 79.0 89.7 88.1 90.4 76.2 88.7 89.8 90.6 90.9 89.0 84.5 93.4 89.9 87.9 75.3 77.3 76.1 84.5 83.5 DB Textiles & textile products 71.3 61.7 54.1 52.3 51.7 53.9 50.7 48.0 49.2 51.5 51.0 49.4 51.8 52.2 38.8 52.9 57.6 48.1 41.9 50.1 50.1 54.2 58.4 49.9 DC Leather & leather products 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.5 60.1 72.8 52.3 59.1 56.1 55.1 53.2 51.2 52.4 80.8 51.6 45.0 62.9 63.6 41.7 65.9 49.5 49.9 61.2 44.7 DD Wood & wood products 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.1 115.7 111.2 124.1 113.7 113.9 107.7 119.6 128.4 124.3 121.9 103.4 115.8 131.0 117.3 93.3 97.0 110.0 116.0 119.8 111.7 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.6 101.2 104.8 103.9 103.8 100.4 102.8 104.8 107.3 102.6 100.2 106.3 102.0 108.7 103.8 101.9 111.2 109.4 101.4 100.5 99.5 107.7 110.2 105.0 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 36.3 - - - 21.4 22.3 18.6 20.1 24.7 25.8 18.8 18.4 18.6 20.2 18.8 21.2 25.4 27.8 21.0 25.0 27.7 24.6 28.3 25.1 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 218.4 201.1 213.9 218.8 239.6 230.1 206.8 199.2 235.8 241.5 180.7 234.3 272.5 250.0 196.2 216.4 219.0 255.0 235.6 214.2 DH Rubber & plastic products 103.6 116.5 122.2 130.0 142.1 135.0 140.7 146.0 145.6 138.1 130.6 146.0 145.5 145.1 136.0 156.8 165.9 155.8 115.1 128.0 144.2 142.1 158.5 146.5 DI Non-metal mineral products 101.6 84.6 78.7 83.6 87.3 79.1 92.5 93.5 88.9 80.1 84.8 96.6 96.2 97.0 88.7 94.8 102.3 97.5 66.8 72.8 78.9 88.6 100.2 99.1 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 112.0 107.8 116.3 129.8 141.9 141.9 144.5 138.0 138.0 136.9 140.2 145.6 147.7 143.8 128.9 141.2 148.5 148.7 116.8 132.8 142.2 135.6 146.3 140.9 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 120.9 138.5 140.9 149.5 165.4 161.9 164.4 159.3 166.7 166.0 160.2 166.8 166.2 162.3 138.3 177.3 180.9 178.7 140.6 155.6 173.6 168.8 174.5 178.3 DL Electrical & optical equipment 122.8 153.0 157.7 181.5 195.7 186.5 201.0 188.1 204.7 186.7 185.2 214.2 203.6 192.3 164.9 207.0 227.1 213.5 173.6 174.9 188.5 196.6 198.9 211.7 DM Transport equipment 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.7 205.2 195.4 206.5 196.2 222.7 222.6 184.3 216.7 218.6 231.0 141.5 216.2 237.5 227.3 203.4 222.4 222.1 223.2 242.0 225.5 DN Manufacturing nec. 102.6 103.4 108.7 107.5 104.2 105.3 106.5 97.8 107.2 99.6 103.4 110.7 105.5 105.6 81.8 105.9 116.3 113.8 91.4 95.2 104.4 99.3 111.2 103.1 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 115.2 126.4 104.2 111.7 118.5 122.1 108.3 102.4 101.8 115.0 111.2 109.0 116.4 117.8 121.4 132.2 117.8 116.2 113.7 104.1 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 245.1 244.6 245.5 244.8 245.6 245.0 245.2 245.5 245.6 245.1 244.6 244.8 245.9 246.1 244.8 244.8 244.9 245.5 245.4 245.2 C Mining & quarrying 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 D Manufacturing 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 229.9 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 230.0 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 230.4 230.3 230.1 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 152.5 104.0 157.8 173.9 174.1 137.8 136.2 171.0 166.3 166.1 174.2 181.3 206.8 175.4 140.2 123.1 138.6 151.6 167.6 195.0 Buildings 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.2 166.8 123.0 172.7 181.6 189.7 168.8 150.9 182.7 184.6 184.8 183.1 177.0 195.5 203.4 170.2 166.2 165.6 174.5 168.7 190.9 Civil engineering 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 143.1 91.5 148.1 168.8 163.9 117.4 126.5 163.3 154.4 153.8 168.3 184.2 214.3 157.0 120.5 94.8 120.8 136.6 167.0 197.6 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 122.0 114.1 120.3 125.3 128.1 128.9 118.0 120.4 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.8 128.3 129.1 126.8 127.3 128.8 130.6 133.0 135.1 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 7/2008 p. A 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 Q, QII QIII QIV QI 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward, in m 1,065 980 848 850 817 209 222 167 219 206 80 73 45 43 79 79 74 67 72 63 71 73 80 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 778 764 777 788 812 196 202 204 210 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Passenger-km in air transport, in m 837 896 1,019 1,044 1,186 183 289 459 255 227 88 1 21 161 1 58 139 1 07 77 72 72 73 82 1 08 114 Tonne-km in rail transport, in m 3,274 3,466 3,402 3,373 3,603 918 913 865 908 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 46,586 10,813 13,224 12,050 10,499 14,524 3,967 4,373 4,585 3,676 3,790 3,390 2,628 4,481 4,515 4,650 5,360 4,486 4,516 Tonne-km in road transport, in m 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,112 13,734 3,103 3,418 3,617 3,596 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 90.7 26.3 23.3 14.4 26.7 25.5 7.8 7.2 4.1 3.8 6.6 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.0 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 922 1,047 1,228 1,339 1,505 251 382 535 336 303 123 1 52 184 1 81 169 1 40 102 94 95 97 110 1 35 148 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 15,847 4,282 3,967 3,406 4,191 4,249 1,383 1,493 1,113 1,167 1,126 1,331 1,422 1,438 1,374 1,571 1,303 1,508 1,307 Transport of gas, million m3 1,098 1,097 1,136 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 8,261 1,472 1,997 3,327 1,465 1,533 619 811 1,226 1,325 776 573 441 452 486 542 505 519 653 Domestic tourists 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 3,393 700 786 1,253 654 734 239 339 503 489 261 228 203 223 198 315 221 226 248 Foreign tourists 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,489 4,868 771 1,211 2,074 811 799 380 472 723 836 515 344 238 229 288 227 284 294 405 Health resorts 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,550 2,651 560 636 841 614 572 205 226 282 325 234 233 201 180 177 202 193 204 234 Seaside 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,925 1,993 203 535 987 268 215 153 243 390 390 206 115 88 64 45 71 99 117 150 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 36.2 8.0 8.6 8.1 11.5 8.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.9 Pigs 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 33.2 8.2 8.5 7.8 8.7 8.3 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 Poultry 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 58.9 13.9 14.3 15.2 15.6 14.2 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.2 53.1 61.0 38.5 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.8 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 103.3 102.4 103.7 106.7 492.2 101.3 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 38.4 33.8 38.3 41.8 40.7 46.2 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 FISHING, in tons Catches in marine waters 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 933.4 913.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 Q, QII QIII QIV QI 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,641 -260 -231 -357 -793 -617 -126 2 -92 -54 -211 -207 -245 -342 -255 -195 -166 -70 -208 Goods 1 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,151 -1,664 -246 -384 -387 -646 -493 -161 -80 -90 -103 -194 -177 -187 -283 -189 -135 -169 -128 -262 Exports 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,028 19,777 4,782 5,004 4,926 5,065 5,129 1,714 1,712 1,741 1,477 1,709 1,856 1,783 1,427 1,633 1,721 1,776 1,871 1,717 Imports 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,179 21,441 5,028 5,389 5,313 5,711 5,622 1,875 1,792 1,830 1,580 1,903 2,032 1,969 1,709 1,821 1,856 1,944 1,998 1,979 Services 540 688 849 866 1 ,040 204 342 337 157 254 116 126 85 133 119 63 42 51 62 77 115 152 154 Exports 2,465 2,783 3,143 3,449 4,116 829 1 ,01 5 1,294 978 1,009 334 349 436 458 399 357 285 336 326 325 358 408 379 Imports 1,925 2,095 2,294 2,584 3,075 625 673 957 821 755 218 224 351 325 281 293 242 286 264 249 243 256 225 Income -219 -322 -288 -398 -725 -143 -157 -205 -220 -205 -52 -54 -65 -70 -70 -70 -73 -77 -67 -67 -71 -73 -68 Receipts 510 530 648 902 1,019 218 269 259 272 286 91 90 83 85 91 89 90 94 94 95 97 104 106 Expenditure 728 852 936 1,300 1,744 361 427 464 492 491 143 144 149 155 161 1 59 163 170 160 1 62 168 177 174 Current transfers 26 -76 -97 -173 -292 -76 -31 -102 -84 -173 -29 11 -23 -14 -65 -23 -28 -33 -62 -69 -42 -21 -31 Receipts 474 561 738 785 910 197 239 220 253 1 77 66 97 71 90 60 74 85 94 58 59 60 87 66 Expenditure 449 638 835 958 1,203 273 271 322 337 350 95 87 93 104 125 98 113 126 120 1 28 102 108 97 Capital and financial account 46 698 818 1,050 2,032 500 275 259 998 464 -38 237 191 11 57 203 354 442 108 265 91 225 403 Capital account -165 -96 -114 -131 -52 15 -27 -32 -8 -2 -7 -20 -11 3 -24 7 5 -21 6 2 -10 6 -6 Financial account 211 794 932 1,182 2,084 485 302 291 1,006 466 -31 257 202 8 80 196 349 462 102 264 101 219 409 Direct investment -151 224 -43 -207 -81 -120 -1 4 -106 159 1 53 -79 85 -26 27 -107 130 -62 91 36 1 116 -41 18 Domestic abroad -421 -441 -516 -718 -1,154 -307 -245 -404 -198 -1 56 -108 -19 -141 -59 -204 23 -145 -76 -34 -39 -83 -147 -131 Foreign in Slovenia 270 665 473 512 1,073 187 230 298 357 309 29 104 115 85 97 108 83 167 70 40 199 107 148 Portfolio investment -223 -637 -1,466 -1,444 -2,273 -623 -1,203 377 -823 298 -620 -169 234 119 24 -360 -483 20 13 688 -404 -424 -438 Financial derivatives 0 6 -10 -13 -22 2 -2 -12 -9 2 0 -2 -7 -5 -1 -11 1 1 3 3 -3 1 0 Other investment 849 945 2,639 1,564 4,320 1,172 1,533 0 1,616 94 733 344 -131 -125 256 417 921 277 49 -465 511 598 813 Assets -730 -1,308 -1,459 -1,936 -4,647 -2,311 -396 -1,373 -567 -876 498 -75 -600 -352 -421 -268 -341 42 175 -91 2 -139 393 243 Commercial credits -116 -237 -226 -435 -426 -375 -178 29 98 -484 -9 -73 31 152 -154 -229 -18 345 -65 -220 -200 -20 -93 Loans -223 -281 -340 -733 -1,807 -351 -439 -419 -599 60 -203 -191 -215 -144 -60 -120 -125 -354 167 -27 -80 20 -204 Currency and deposits -323 -720 -872 -747 -2,424 -1,605 219 -972 -66 -452 708 176 -402 -363 -207 76 -198 56 59 -668 157 350 550 Other assets -68 -69 -21 -21 10 20 1 -11 0 -1 3 13 -13 3 0 5 -1 -5 14 2 -16 43 -9 Liabilities 1,579 2,252 4,098 3,500 8,968 3,483 1 ,929 1,373 2,182 970 235 419 469 227 677 685 1,262 235 -127 447 650 206 570 Commercial credits 59 214 291 468 512 275 52 -83 267 167 85 -16 54 -297 161 167 94 7 -77 98 146 90 214 Loans 1,123 1,671 2,731 2,064 3,761 15 1,546 895 1,305 574 294 230 220 251 424 204 873 227 97 209 268 -182 486 Deposits 428 335 1,053 998 4,727 3,208 338 567 613 253 -140 199 188 281 98 328 299 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 Other liabilities -31 33 23 -30 -32 -16 -7 -6 -2 -22 -5 6 7 -8 -6 -14 -4 16 -13 -10 0 4 -2 International reserves 2 -264 256 -189 1,281 1 40 55 -1 1 32 64 -81 -65 -1 132 -8 -91 20 -28 72 0 37 -118 85 16 Statistical error 150 22 -257 -194 -391 -240 -44 98 -205 153 164 -239 -99 43 154 4 -109 -100 148 -70 75 -155 -196 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,172 1,333 1,392 1,680 1,933 455 508 466 505 523 176 173 166 140 160 180 165 159 147 178 199 191 N/A Intermediate goods 5,989 6,926 7,723 9,368 10,438 2,611 2,674 2,560 2,593 2,750 922 896 918 778 864 959 927 707 892 932 926 1,008 N/A Consumer goods 4,124 4,523 5,282 5,709 7,014 1,645 1,720 1,790 1,859 1,746 575 609 619 520 651 679 653 526 556 579 611 631 N/A Import of investment goods 1,974 2,104 2,163 2,565 3,004 658 736 740 870 767 265 242 246 199 295 303 299 268 248 249 270 295 N/A Intermediate goods 7,209 8,492 9,764 11,319 12,874 3,154 3,215 3,162 3,343 3,414 1,120 1,078 1,105 955 1,102 1,161 1,185 998 1,114 1,142 1,158 1,196 N/A Consumer goods 3,056 3,547 3,877 4,456 5,609 1,240 1,447 1,413 1,509 1,452 494 476 478 424 511 576 492 440 463 470 518 508 N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 7 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 December 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Banknotes and coins 217.3 172.8 2,947 2,689 2,721 2,737 2,769 2,801 2,787 2,786 2,804 2,818 2,947 2,781 2,794 2,824 2,861 2,870 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.6 7,057.0 6,867 6,887 7,056 7,194 7,257 7,134 7,152 6,931 6,774 7,057 7,073 6,776 6,985 6,859 7,044 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 2.8 5.0 47 36 37 40 41 50 57 58 54 42 47 49 38 36 38 31 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 2.7 1.3 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 Total overnight deposits at the BS 5.5 6.4 53 41 43 47 48 58 67 67 60 48 53 55 44 42 44 36 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,746.4 8,700 7,607 7,514 7,578 7,694 7,967 8,209 8,178 8,449 8,269 8,700 8,710 8,925 8,892 9,190 9,133 Deposits at redeemable notice 122.4 197.5 1,280 985 991 1,087 1,133 1,171 1,224 1,277 1,300 1,366 1,280 1,317 1,348 1,337 1,313 1,337 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 8.1 76 46 52 52 61 62 66 69 80 81 76 75 91 105 103 98 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,873.7 10,057 9,597 9,650 9,840 10,011 10,116 9,989 10,005 9,794 9,640 10,057 9,910 9,614 9,850 9,764 9,950 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,817.6 20,037 18,189 18,156 18,506 18,838 19,254 19,421 19,460 19,543 19,275 20,037 19,937 19,888 20,079 20,266 20,420 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,825.8 20,113 18,235 18,208 18,557 18,899 19,316 19,487 19,529 19,624 19,355 20,113 20,012 19,978 20,184 20,369 20,517 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 17.4 16.6 67 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 2,367 2,944 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 23.1 24.9 118 107 105 107 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 Households (S. 14, 15) 1,025.9 1,289.4 6,818 5,633 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,236.0 18,105 14,660 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 368.1 2,305 1,574 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,407 2,494 2,558 2,568 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,158.7 2,401 2,267 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,298.2 26,555 21,726 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,149.0 1,990 1,160 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,406.6 3,570 4,299 3,992 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2610.3 2902.9 20,029 17,914 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 Overnight 987.0 1178.1 6,887 6,648 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 With agreed maturity - short-term 1175.5 1251.2 8,913 7,639 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 292.4 2,857 2,560 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 137.8 181.2 1,372 1,067 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1346.6 1454.5 559 607 597 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 Overnight 534.8 552.7 21 8 285 264 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 With agreed maturity - short-term 481.2 545.5 248 237 251 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.3 56 62 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 37 23 22 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 Source of data: BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 7/2008 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QII QIII QIV QI QII 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.2 105.8 106.9 108.8 109.9 112.9 106.5 106.6 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.4 109.5 109.4 110.9 111.7 112.9 113.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 110.2 108.7 110.7 116.1 120.0 121.7 109.2 109.5 109.7 113.0 115.5 115.5 117.3 120.4 119.9 119.8 120.8 122.5 121.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 110.5 108.0 113.6 113.2 112.9 113.4 108.2 113.9 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.0 112.8 112.9 112.8 113.6 113.8 Clothing and footwear 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 101.6 105.7 97.1 108.1 100.1 111.2 107.0 95.0 94.2 102.3 106.8 109.9 107.7 95.6 97.8 106.8 110.6 111.7 111.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 108.1 107.1 109.3 111.7 115.2 119.3 107.7 108.5 110.3 109.1 110.2 112.3 112.5 115.7 113.8 116.0 116.7 119.3 122.1 Furnishings, household equip. 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 108.7 108.3 109.0 110.4 111.9 114.3 108.8 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.1 111.3 113.2 114.1 114.3 114.4 Medical, pharmaceutical products 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 99.4 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.4 101.5 99.9 100.0 98.7 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.5 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.9 Transport 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 101.6 102.6 102.1 101.9 102.6 105.6 103.2 102.9 102.2 101.1 100.7 102.5 102.4 102.7 102.0 103.2 103.7 105.4 107.7 Communications 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.6 99.6 100.9 101.8 102.2 101.5 99.7 100.6 100.8 101.5 101.4 100.8 103.1 102.5 102.1 102.1 102.1 101.2 101.2 Recreation and culture 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 105.8 104.3 110.6 105.9 107.2 109.5 106.4 111.0 113.0 107.9 105.5 105.6 106.6 106.5 108.0 107.3 107.5 108.9 112.1 Education 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 105.0 104.7 105.7 106.7 107.9 110.4 105.6 105.6 105.6 106.0 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.6 107.0 110.2 110.2 110.5 110.5 Catering services 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 112.1 110.8 112.8 115.5 119.4 121.9 111.1 111.8 112.7 113.9 114.4 115.6 116.6 119.0 119.5 119.8 121.4 1 22 122.3 Miscellaneous goods & services 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 107.8 107.1 108.2 109.4 110.6 111.9 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.6 111.2 111.7 112 112.1 HCPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.4 106.2 107.0 109.0 110.1 113.0 106.8 106.7 106.9 107.4 108.2 109.2 109.6 109.7 109.6 111.0 111.8 113.1 114.2 Producer price indices (domestic market) 93.4 97.4 100.0 102.3 107.8 107.4 108.2 109.9 112.1 114.2 107.7 107.8 107.7 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.1 111.0 112.4 113.0 113.7 114.2 114.8 Intermediate goods 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 111.9 111.7 112.6 114.3 117.0 119.7 112.1 112.3 112.1 113.5 114.2 114.3 114.4 115.2 117.7 118.0 119.0 119.6 120.4 Capital goods 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 101.5 101.1 101.5 102.0 102.6 104.6 100.9 101.6 101.4 101.6 102.1 101.9 101.9 102.4 102.2 103.4 104.4 104.1 105.3 Consumption goods 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.4 103.6 104.2 106.7 108.8 110.0 104.0 103.8 103.8 105.1 105.8 107.1 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.4 109.7 110.1 110.3 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 108.6 109.5 110.1 112.4 116.1 128.1 110.7 111.8 109.8 108.5 108.5 114.4 114.3 116.5 112.6 119.1 120.3 127.4 136.4 Oil products 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 109.3 110.9 111.3 113.5 116.5 130.2 112.9 113.5 111.0 109.3 108.7 115.9 115.9 117.3 112.3 119.8 121.0 129.4 140.0 Electricity for households 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 - 107.1 - - - - 107.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - Basic utilities 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 95.2 94.7 97.2 95.1 95.1 95.9 94.7 94.7 101.7 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.0 95.9 95.9 95.9 Transport & communications 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.4 102.8 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 Other controlled prices 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 105.6 104.9 106.3 106.4 106.4 106.7 104.7 105.5 107.1 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 Direct control - total 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 110.4 110.8 112.0 113.2 115.6 123.7 111.7 112.6 112.7 110.7 110.7 114.5 114.4 115.9 113.3 117.7 118.7 123.3 129.2 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 9 Annual average 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - 0.47 0.32 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - 3.34 2.96 3.36 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 4.18 4.99 4.56 5.80 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 5.76 - 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - 5.63 6.32 5.47 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 3.85 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3 - month rates 2.33 2.11 2.19 3.58 4.28 3.98 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 6 - month rates 2.31 2.15 2.24 3.58 4.35 4.10 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 LIBOR CHF 3 - month rates 0.33 0.47 0.80 1.51 2.55 2.32 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 6 - month rates 0.38 0.59 0.87 1.65 2.65 2.44 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 Sources of data: BS, BBA- British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 7/2008 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 925.3 919.1 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 923.6 925.4 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 854.0 841.8 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 852.9 856.2 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 41.6 43.1 42.0 41.0 40.3 41.9 42.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 40.3 40.2 41.8 41.9 42.1 41.2 41.2 In industry, construction 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 322.9 317.4 322.2 324.8 327.3 327.3 322.3 323.9 324.3 324.4 325.7 327.7 328.4 325.7 326.0 327.1 328.8 330.3 331.4 Of which: in manufacturing 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 229.9 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 230.4 230.3 230.1 in construction 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 77.8 72.8 76.8 80.0 81.7 82.2 76.8 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.9 81.8 82.4 80.9 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.8 86.2 In services 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 489.5 481.3 488.5 490.3 497.8 501.6 488.6 490.3 489.1 489.2 492.7 496.4 498.7 498.5 499.6 502.0 503.4 505.2 507 Of which: in public administration 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 50.1 49.7 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.7 50.5 50.6 50.7 in education, health-services, social work 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 110.0 109.9 110.2 109.3 110.6 111.3 110.1 110.2 109.0 108.7 110.1 110.6 110.8 110.5 110.9 111.4 111.5 111.7 112 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 766.0 753.1 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 764.9 768.1 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 In enterprises and organisations 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 696.1 685.8 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 695.1 697.5 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 By those self-employed 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 69.9 67.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 69.8 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 D SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 87.9 88.7 87.9 87.6 87.6 89.6 88.0 88.1 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 71.3 77.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 70.7 69.3 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 Female 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 39.1 42.0 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 39.2 38.5 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 By age: under 26 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 11.9 14.0 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 11.5 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 older than 40 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 37.1 38.7 37.2 36.6 36.1 36.3 37.2 36.7 36.9 36.6 36.3 36.1 36.0 36.3 37.0 36.4 35.6 35 34.7 Unskilled 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 28.0 30.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25 24.6 For more than 1 year 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 36.5 38.8 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 36.8 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 Those receiving benefits 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 16.6 19.1 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 16.9 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.4 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 21.5 8.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 New unemployed first job seekers 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 14.7 2.9 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 Redundancies 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 52.5 15.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 Registered unemployed who found employment 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 49.1 14.8 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 Other unemployed erased out of register 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 28.0 7.6 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 15.3 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 1.7 -0.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 Retirements 2 19.4 21.0 18.4 20.6 20.7 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 Deaths 2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 27.8 43.6 34.1 39.0 20.5 14.3 9.2 4.5 11.1 9.9 3.3 5.0 -0.8 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.5 -0.2 7.1 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.7 H REGISTERED VACANCIES3 12.1 14.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 20.5 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 19.3 23.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 For fixed term, in % 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 76.5 76.7 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 79.1 76.6 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 60.2 52.6 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 60.1 59.5 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 As % of labour force (I/A) 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 7.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 11 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 QII QIII QIV QI 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 277,279 290,635 1,285 1,252 1,267 1,379 1,335 1,264 1,254 1,263 1,279 1,259 1,304 1,492 1,343 1,326 1,326 1,353 1,354 1,360 Private sector (A to K) 258,714 272,709 1,217 1,178 1,191 1,328 1,264 1,192 1,179 1,180 1,211 1,181 1,238 1,468 1,279 1,263 1,244 1,285 1,288 1,290 Agriculture, fishing (A, B) 224,253 236,822 1,069 1,036 1,048 1,185 1,112 1,057 1,026 1,029 1,073 1,044 1,113 1,323 1,118 1,117 1,127 1,091 1,122 1,151 A Agriculture 224,225 236,681 1,069 1,036 1,049 1,184 1,114 1,058 1,027 1,029 1,072 1,045 1,110 1,323 1,120 1,120 1,129 1,092 1,123 1,152 B Fishing 218,670 236,027 1,063 1,032 1,030 1,202 1,036 1,011 1,015 1,015 1,078 999 1,231 1,337 1,039 1,032 1,027 1,047 1,056 1,114 Industry, construction (C to F) 243,067 256,362 1,140 1,101 1,120 1,241 1,184 1,114 1,109 1,106 1,145 1,109 1,168 1,372 1,184 1,189 1,163 1,200 1,202 1,205 C Mining and quarrying 344,670 360,110 1,608 1,547 1,538 1,848 1,656 1,580 1,572 1,518 1,549 1,547 1,628 2,139 1,777 1,605 1,642 1,721 1,670 1,859 D Manufacturing 238,985 252,162 1,124 1,086 1,105 1,217 1,175 1,094 1,095 1,091 1,132 1,093 1,151 1,335 1,165 1,181 1,152 1,192 1,189 1,185 E Electricity, gas & water supply 353,836 373,743 1,657 1,537 1,564 2,031 1,629 1,551 1,576 1,502 1,602 1,588 1,689 2,553 1,850 1,663 1,598 1,625 1,662 1,684 F Construction 224,794 238,698 1,061 1,036 1,054 1,129 1,094 1,066 1,031 1,050 1,071 1,039 1,091 1,217 1,080 1,092 1,081 1,107 1,131 1,144 Production services (G to I) 253,747 266,326 1,189 1,156 1,167 1,280 1,241 1,163 1,152 1,162 1,177 1,163 1,204 1,377 1,260 1,235 1,221 1,266 1,265 1,254 G Distributive trade 244,880 258,521 1,161 1,130 1,143 1,247 1,205 1,135 1,125 1,136 1,151 1,142 1,176 1,332 1,231 1,200 1,194 1,223 1,245 1,226 H Hotels & restaurants 202,895 211,873 937 922 927 1,004 983 930 931 920 945 916 958 1,042 1,011 993 969 985 1,003 1,034 I Transport, storage & communications 299,377 310,080 1,368 1,320 1,331 1,480 1,436 1,332 1,313 1,329 1,343 1,322 1,377 1,627 1,436 1,423 1,395 1,489 1,426 1,414 Business services (J to K) 325,355 340,552 1,520 1,472 1,466 1,698 1,563 1,504 1,461 1,458 1,486 1,453 1,528 1,942 1,623 1,555 1,542 1,592 1,603 1,624 J Financial intermediation 413,896 443,595 1,986 1,943 1,834 2,347 1,959 2,021 1,911 1,833 1,853 1,815 1,973 3,015 2,054 1,918 1,932 2,027 2,124 2,155 K Real estate 292,763 304,295 1,361 1,312 1,341 1,480 1,431 1,328 1,309 1,330 1,361 1,331 1,379 1,583 1,479 1,433 1,412 1,447 1,430 1,448 Public services (L to O) 330,580 341,999 1,485 1,469 1,495 1,531 1,548 1,474 1,478 1,509 1,485 1,490 1,500 1,563 1,531 1,515 1,570 1,558 1,556 1,573 L Public administration 333,302 343,572 1,507 1,482 1,538 1,561 1,606 1,488 1,506 1,565 1,512 1,538 1,553 1,569 1,562 1,549 1,648 1,619 1,627 1,636 M Education 340,967 357,301 1,550 1,545 1,561 1,573 1,605 1,550 1,550 1,571 1,556 1,556 1,560 1,585 1,575 1,563 1,636 1,615 1,620 1,638 N Health & social work 316,827 325,245 1,400 1,393 1,405 1,436 1,450 1,401 1,392 1,423 1,401 1,391 1,404 1,453 1,450 1,438 1,452 1,461 1,438 1,463 O Other social & personal services 325,159 332,137 1,440 1,394 1,407 1,553 1,465 1,393 1,399 1,399 1,415 1,407 1,421 1,733 1,504 1,466 1,463 1,467 1,471 1,487 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94.0 94.1 95.1 94.9 95.1 95.6 95.8 95.0 95.0 95.1 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.6 95.6 95.7 95.7 96.1 96.3 96.1 Real (relative consumer prices) 105.0 105.7 108.3 108.0 108.9 110.3 110.8 108.3 108.6 108.7 108.8 109.2 109.8 110.5 110.6 110.7 110.2 111.4 112.3 112.6 Real (relative producer prices)2 102.5 101.6 103.9 103.4 103.7 104.9 105.2 103.4 103.6 103.4 103.4 104.2 104.9 104.9 105.0 105.3 105.1 105.3 105.9 104.9 SIT/US$ 192.7 191.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SIT/EUR 239.6 239.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - US$/EUR 1.2448 1.2557 1.3706 1.3482 1.3745 1.4494 1.4998 1.3511 1.3419 1.3716 1.3622 1.3896 1.4227 1.4684 1.4570 1.4718 1.4748 1.5527 1.5750 1.5557 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: Data on the monthly gross wage per employee for 2004 and beyond calculated according to the new methodology were published in September 2005. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 7/2008 p. A 12 Current prices, EURO thousand 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QI QII QIII QV QI 11 12 1 2 3 4 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL REVENUES 11,196,191 11,976,085 12,958,693 14,006,087 3,453,959 3,429,135 4,059,774 3,354,069 1,323,675 1,323,051 1,413,048 1,119,018 1,100,070 1,134,980 1,464,529 Current revenues 10,887,384 11,517,220 12,395,302 13,467,169 3,374,915 3,332,116 3,805,095 3,274,687 1,259,399 1,236,253 1,309,443 1,104,599 1,073,527 1,096,561 1,437,215 Tax revenues 10,210,728 10,883,952 11,761,990 12,757,942 3,199,681 3,123,561 3,606,002 3,110,026 1,194,103 1,168,132 1,243,767 1,057,437 1,015,569 1,037,020 1,374,121 Taxes on income and profit 2,115,163 2,241,947 2,735,294 2,917,670 914,251 646,272 769,413 694,360 233,374 235,747 300,293 222,969 221,246 250,145 498,338 Social security contributions 3,753,129 3,987,693 4,231,224 4,597,973 1,123,694 1,139,120 1,251,786 1,203,051 385,102 397,257 469,427 394,658 400,038 408,355 418,985 Taxes on payroll and workforce 491,053 526,193 472,934 418,141 99,669 101,537 120,885 59,414 34,118 36,515 50,251 19,987 19,495 19,933 20,907 Taxes on property 164,886 170,396 189,124 206,421 57,958 67,292 58,987 27,536 16,339 29,318 13,330 8,685 10,532 8,319 11,993 Domestic taxes on goods and services 3,574,570 3,914,698 4,077,290 4,498,576 973,023 1,135,454 1,372,486 1,099,440 514,537 459,906 398,043 404,585 354,721 340,133 411,458 Taxes on international trade & transactions 80,698 39,060 50,681 117,079 30,663 33,213 31,725 25,584 10,423 9,109 12,193 6,345 9,324 9,915 12,279 Other taxes 31,229 3,965 5,442 2,081 422 673 719 640 211 279 229 208 214 219 161 Non-tax revenues 676,656 633,268 633,312 709,227 175,234 208,554 199,093 164,661 65,296 68,121 65,677 47,162 57,958 59,541 63,094 Capital revenues 86,593 113,424 166,795 136,551 15,184 39,564 62,132 28,011 14,557 15,694 31,880 11,104 9,579 7,328 6,150 Grants 7,831 9,067 5,370 11,872 2,831 1,975 4,955 1,624 1,361 820 2,774 742 734 148 767 Transferred revenues 31,449 33,967 42,811 42,500 1,449 427 40,450 1,219 801 39,715 -66 355 124 741 1,102 Receipts from the EU budget 182,933 302,407 348,416 347,997 59,580 55,054 147,143 48,527 47,556 30,570 69,017 2,217 16,106 30,203 19,295 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 11,552,442 12,275,729 13,208,676 13,915,485 3,392,566 3,239,983 4,081,764 3,370,601 1,140,451 1,249,608 1,691,704 1,011,349 1,142,456 1,216,796 1,228,269 Current expenditure 5,149,861 5,353,940 5,688,953 5,950,896 1,448,488 1,362,191 1,658,215 1,573,534 483,812 500,729 673,675 447,544 514,353 611,638 528,840 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 2,922,504 3,016,282 3,180,304 3,276,920 851,676 814,380 825,018 809,987 266,157 273,515 285,346 264,760 263,658 281,569 274,519 Expenditure on goods and services 1,793,780 1,910,960 2,073,233 2,212,229 482,590 517,992 721,312 530,450 187,389 212,070 321,852 155,476 172,996 201,978 188,233 Interest payments 383,629 372,142 376,392 356,983 105,283 17,472 36,678 221,038 26,571 4,888 5,220 22,868 74,227 123,942 61,449 Reserves 49,948 54,556 59,025 104,765 8,939 12,347 75,207 12,060 3,695 10,256 61,256 4,440 3,471 4,149 4,640 Current transfers 5,215,779 5,598,570 5,925,823 6,143,945 1,665,639 1,456,006 1,565,087 1,489,861 473,667 547,136 544,283 460,532 517,281 512,048 579,517 Subsidies 323,697 381,245 402,921 423,371 137,922 88,287 92,752 60,546 18,014 25,554 49,184 5,008 34,975 20,564 86,662 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,395,830 4,628,595 4,871,492 5,093,321 1,359,165 1,211,111 1,304,006 1,303,391 404,995 470,513 428,497 418,051 441,065 444,276 444,983 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 474,357 563,051 624,054 595,274 158,373 145,285 160,757 118,705 49,568 48,851 62,338 35,719 37,710 45,276 45,994 Current transfers abroad 21,894 25,679 27,357 31,979 10,178 11,324 7,572 7,218 1,090 2,217 4,264 1,754 3,531 1,933 1,878 Capital expenditure 631,383 654,246 901,419 1,130,466 162,915 266,879 567,298 148,896 117,277 121,011 329,010 53,698 44,796 50,401 69,296 Capital transfers 385,845 383,385 404,588 334,274 54,972 69,297 181,376 30,589 35,635 49,419 96,322 8,993 10,767 10,829 18,879 Payments to the EU budget 169,575 285,589 287,892 355,904 60,553 85,610 109,787 127,721 30,061 31,313 48,414 40,582 55,259 31,880 31,737 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -356,252 -299,644 -249,983 90,603 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in %* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1010 Spring Forecast 2008 GDP 2.8 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,344 26,764 28,244 30,453 - - - - GDP in EUR million (current prices and fixed 2007 exchange rate EUR=239,64) 24,716 26,677 28,243 30,448 33,542 36,308 39,234 42,270 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 12,695 13,400 14,116 15,167 16,615 17,939 19,350 20,815 GDP per capita (PPS)1 17,000 18,400 19,500 20,700 22,4002 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 82 85 87 88 892 - - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 Inflation3, annual average 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.2 3.2 2.9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services4 3.1 12.5 10.1 12.3 13.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 Exports of goods 4.4 12.8 10.3 13.4 12.5 9.4 9.3 9.5 Exports of services -2.5 11.0 9.5 7.3 15.5 10.9 10.0 10.5 Imports of goods and services4 6.7 13.3 6.7 12.2 14.1 8.5 7.5 8.6 Imports of goods 7.3 14.6 6.8 12.7 13.8 8.3 7.2 8.3 Imports of services 2.9 5.6 5.6 8.9 16.6 9.8 9.7 10.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,641 -1,686 -1,103 -899 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 233.70 238.86 239.64 239.64 - - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.128 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.526 1.537 1.537 Foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 - - - - - in which: BS foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 6,675 6,368 6,771 5,305 6445 6016 - - Gross external debt, in EUR million 13,225 15,343 20,508 24,034 34,358 37,0807 - - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 55.3 54.3 54.0 53.4 52.3 52.7 52.2 51.8 Government consumption 19.4 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.6 Gross fixed capital formation 24.1 25.4 25.5 26.1 28.7 28.9 28.1 28.1 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations and forecasts by IMAD - Spring Forecast 2008. Notes: *if not stated otherwise; 1Eurostat; 2the first provisional estimate; 3the consumer price index; 4balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets are eliminated by calculating real rates; 5From 1 January 2007 foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the EMU in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the EMU; 6end June 2008; 7end May 2008. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU27=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.1 85.3 86.8 87.7 88.8 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 EU27 2.5 1.9 3.1 2.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 EU25 2.5 1.9 3.0 2.9 104.2 104.1 103.9 103.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 EMU 2.1 1.6 2.8 2.6 110.9 110.9 110.4 110.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 Belgium 3.0 1.7 2.8 2.8 121.0 121.0 119.6 118.1 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 Bulgaria 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.2 33.8 35.3 36.7 38.1 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 Czech Republic 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 75.3 76.5 78.5 82.0 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 Denmark 2.3 2.5 3.9 1.8 125.9 126.5 125.6 122.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 Germany 1.1 0.8 2.9 2.5 116.6 115.0 114.0 113.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 Estonia 8.3 10.2 11.2 7.1 56.9 62.8 68.3 72.1 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 Ireland 4.4 6.0 5.7 5.3 141.8 143.6 145.3 146.3 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 Greece 4.6 3.8 4.2 4.0 93.9 96.1 97.2 97.9 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 Spain 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.8 101.2 102.9 104.8 106.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 France 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 110.3 112.3 111.8 111.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 Italy 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.5 106.9 105.1 103.2 101.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 Cyprus 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 90.5 92.5 91.8 92.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 Latvia 8.7 10.6 12.2 10.3 45.8 49.9 53.6 58.0 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 Lithuania 7.3 7.9 7.7 8.8 50.5 53.1 56.1 60.3 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 Luxembourg 4.9 5.0 6.1 4.5 253.2 264.0 278.9 276.4 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 Hungary 4.8 4.1 3.9 1.3 63.3 64.1 64.9 63.5 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 Malta 0.6 3.2 3.4 3.8 77.1 77.4 76.9 77.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 Netherlands 2.2 1.5 3.0 3.5 129.5 131.0 130.4 130.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 Austria 2.3 2.0 3.3 3.4 128.8 128.7 127.4 128.2 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 Poland 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.5 50.7 51.2 52.4 53.6 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 Portugal 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 74.7 75.4 74.4 74.7 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 Romania 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.0 34.1 35.4 38.8 40.7 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 Slovakia 5.2 6.6 8.5 10.4 57.2 60.5 63.6 68.6 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 Finland 3.7 2.8 4.9 4.4 116.5 115.1 116.8 116.2 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 Sweden 4.1 3.3 4.1 2.7 125.0 123.6 124.4 126.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 United Kingdom 3.3 1.8 2.9 3.1 122.0 119.1 117.8 115.9 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 USA 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.2 155.0 158.2 157.4 155.7 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance, % GDP General Government Gross Debt, % GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 20072 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.8 -2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -4.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 27.6 27.5 27.2 24.1 EU27 9.0 8.9 8.1 7.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.1 62.6 61.3 58.7 EU25 9.0 8.9 8.2 7.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -2.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.4 63.0 61.8 59.3 EMU 8.8 8.9 8.3 7.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.3 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 69.7 70.3 68.6 66.6 Belgium 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.5 3.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.3 0.3 -0.2 94.2 92.1 88.2 84.9 Bulgaria 12.0 10.1 9.0 6.9 -6.6 -12.4 -17.8 -21.5 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.4 37.9 29.2 22.7 18.2 Czech Republic 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.3 -5.4 -1.8 -3.3 n.p. -3.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.6 30.4 29.7 29.4 28.7 Denmark 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.0 4.3 2.7 1.1 1.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 43.8 36.4 30.4 26.0 Germany 9.7 10.7 9.8 8.4 4.7 5.2 6.1 7.6 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 65.6 67.8 67.6 65.0 Estonia 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 -12.3 -10.0 -15.5 -17.3 1.6 1.8 3.4 2.8 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.4 Ireland 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.6 -0.6 -3.5 -4.2 n.p. 1.4 1.6 3.0 0.3 29.5 27.4 25.1 25.4 Greece 10.5 9.8 8.9 8.3 -5.6 -7.1 n.p. n.p. -7.4 -5.1 -2.6 -2.8 98.6 98.0 95.3 94.5 Spain 10.6 9.2 8.5 8.3 -5.3 -7.4 -8.9 -10.1 -0.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 46.2 43.0 39.7 36.2 France 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.5 -0.9 -1.3 n.p. -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 -2.7 64.9 66.4 63.6 64.2 Italy 8.0 7.7 6.8 6.1 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 -2.5 -3.5 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 103.8 105.8 106.5 104.0 Cyprus 4.6 5.2 4.6 3.9 -5.0 -5.9 -5.9 -9.7 -4.1 -2.4 -1.2 3.3 70.2 69.1 64.8 59.8 Latvia 10.4 8.9 6.8 6.0 -12.9 -12.5 -22.5 -22.9 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 1 4.9 12.4 10.7 9.7 Lithuania 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 -7.7 -7.2 -10.8 -13.7 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 17.3 Luxembourg 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 11.9 11.1 10.5 n.p. -1.2 -0.1 1.3 2.9 6.3 6.1 6.6 6.8 Hungary 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 -8.4 -6.8 -6.1 -4.9 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 -5.5 59.4 61.6 65.6 66.0 Malta 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.4 -5.9 -8.8 -8.3 -5.6 -4.6 -3.0 -2.6 -1.8 72.6 70.4 64.2 62.6 Netherlands 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.2 7.5 7.2 8.3 6.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.5 0.4 52.4 52.3 47.9 45.4 Austria 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.2 -3.7 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 63.8 63.5 61.8 59.1 Poland 19.0 17.7 13.8 9.6 -4.0 -1.2 -2.7 -3.7 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 -2.0 45.7 47.1 47.6 45.2 Portugal 6.7 7.6 7.7 8.0 -7.6 -9.5 -10.1 -9.8 -3.4 -6.1 -3.9 -2.6 58.3 63.6 64.7 63.6 Romania 8.1 7.2 7.3 6.4 -8.4 -8.6 -10.5 -14.1 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 13.0 Slovakia 18.2 16.3 13.4 11.1 -3.4 -8.4 -8.2 -5.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -2.2 41.4 34.2 30.4 29.4 Finland 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.5 3.6 4.6 4.6 2.4 2.9 4.1 5.3 44.1 41.3 39.2 35.4 Sweden 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.1 6.7 7.0 8.5 8.4 0.8 2.2 2.3 3.5 51.2 50.9 45.9 40.6 United Kingdom 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 -1.6 -2.5 -3.9 -4.2 -3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.9 40.4 42.1 43.1 43.8 USA 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 -5.5 -6.1 -6.1 N/A -4.4 N/A N/A N/A 63.4 N/A N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade; Provisional value; N/A - data not available. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.7/2008 p. A 16 INDUSTRY indices: average 2000=100 trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS meth od C ---------T 5RIGINAL INDICES REND INDICES 1A I V If A 1 ' » \ vn M \T'\ r ^ / FREIGHT TRANSPORT BY ROAD AND RAIL _(mio tonne km)_ 7 V —- I A / \ ■ RAIL TRANSPORT ---------ROADTRANSPORT O 0 a a a — o G - uoo a a GOODS TRADE FOB, EXCL. INTERCURRENCY CHANGES 12-month cummulatives in EUR, bn 25 20 'Si rs SJ ■s. ss Ss v. ss '.••v v, 'S/ v, 'S. ss, // v. ''S v. •v ■V 'Si tS S.- 's, ss s.- v. ss •v, ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'S. s.s, .-■v v. ••v .••v v. •v ■V 'S, tS s.- 's, ss s.- v. ss •v, ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si ••v .••v v. •v ■V 'Si tS s.- 's, ss s.- v. ss •v, ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si ••v .••v v. •v ■V 'Si tS s.- 's, ss s.- v. ss •v, ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si ••v .••v v. •v ■V 'S, 'S s.- 's, ss s.- v. ■v ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si .-■v v. LJ iL — •v, ■v 'S/ v, ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si ••v .••v v. — Ss ^s ■v 'Si s.s, .-■v 'Si ••v .••v v. LÀ 'Si s.s, // 'Si ••v .••v v. ss. .••v v. -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r- 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 REAL INDICES OF CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE indices: average 2000=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 ■ CONSTRUCTION • BUILDINGS -i—i—i—r- OVERNIGHT STAYS TOTAL indices: average 1992=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method ---------ORIGINAL INDICES •TREND INDICES "I-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1- EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 ./ _________ EMPLOYMENT, indices 2000=100 ■ UNEMPLOYMENTRATE (right axis) -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r- 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 a a 0 o to z ro tç 0 a a 0 o to z ro ro o 150 135 120 105 0 3 2 15 10 0 5 0 Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.7/2008 p. A 17 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 NET WAGES AND OTHER REMUNERATION, in EUR million -1—i—i—i—r i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r— 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 PAYMENTS FOR INVESTMENT in EUR million, constant 2000 prices EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN REAL TERMS _indices: average 2001=100_ BASED ON RELATIVE: • PRODUCER PRICE INDICES ■ CONSUMER PRICE INDICES 114 110 106 102 100 —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—I—r- Œ > £= 0 o ro ro z ^ -5 O. > £= ^r 0 o ro ro z ^ HOUSEHOLDS' DEPOSITS in EUR million 15000 13500 12000 10500 9000 ■ 7500 ■ 6000 ■ 4500 3000 1500 ■ 0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 ro GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS INDICES:2005=100 ■ PRICE CONTROL ■ CONSUMER PRICE INDICES •PRODUCER PRICE INDICES (DOMESTIC I MARKET) » 120 115 105 100 —i—i—i—i—i—i— —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i— EURO EXCHANGE RATES indices: average 2001 = 100 12 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 18 Agriculture and food processing industry agricultural production 6/04:15, 2/07:15 CAP reform 7/03:18-19 negotiations with the EU 2/02:23, 1/03:17 prices 3/03:14, 3/04:14, 3/05:13, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17, 3/08:24 sample surveys of agricultural holdings 10/03:15 cattle breeding main indicators, number of cattle, BSE, milk production 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17 fishing 8-9/04:16, 10/06:17, 11/07:19 forestry 5/04:16, 11/06:19, 10/07:17 international trade 3/04:15, 4/06:23, 4/07:18 value added forecasting 4/07:21 Balance of payments see also External debt current account, capital and financial account, international money reserves 1/03:3,4, 2/03:4, 3/03:7, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 6/03:4, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:6, 10/03:4, 11/03:4, 12/03:4, 1/04:4, 2/04:4-5, 3/04:6, 4/04:6, 5/04:4, 6/04:4, 7/04:4, 8-9/04:4-5, 10/04:5, 11/04:4-5, 12/04:4, 1/05:4, 2/05:4-5, 4/05:5, 5/05:4-5, 6/05:3, 7/05:4, 8-9/05:5, 10/05:6, 11/05:7-8, 12/05:4, 1/06:4, 2/06:4-5, 3/06:4, 4/06:6, 5/06:6-7, 6/06:6, 7/06:4, 8-9/06:6, 10/06:4, 11/06:6-7, 12/06:10, 1/07:5, 2/07:6-7, 4/07:7, 6/07:5-6, 7/07:5, 8-9/07:6, 11/07:7, 12/07:6, 1/08:5, 2/08:3, 3/08:8, 4/08:5, 5/08:5-6. 6/08:6, 7/08:5 terms of trade 2/03:4, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 7/03:5, 5/08:5 export financing and export credit insurance 5/03:22 regional composition of trade 2/05:4, 3/07:16-17 trade in services 3/03:5, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:7, 2/04:6, 8-9/04:6, 12/04:29, 2/05:8, 8-9/05:6, 2/06:6, 8-9/06:7, 2/07:8, 8-9/07:7, 3/08:9 competitiveness of exports of services 12/03:17 coverage of international trade in services (methodology) 3/03:24,25 regional distribution 6/04:20 Business subjects 5/03:21, 5/04:20-21 Economic subjects 4/05:17, 4/06:22 Co-operative societies business performance 11/03:17, 12/04:30, 11/05:23 Corporate sectorsss company performance R&D: 6/05:18 by kind of ownership 11/04:18, 8-9/05:23 by origin of capital 11/04:19, 10/05:22 by size 10/03:22, 7/04:24, 8-9/04:26, 6/05:16 by share of exports in total revenues 11/02:19, 8-9/03:20, 10/04:20, 7/05:19 by technology intensity 10/07:20-21 by no. of employees 7/05:18 in 1994-2000 4/01:8 overall performance 6/03:13, 7/03:20, 6/04:21, 7/04:24, 5/05:19, 5/06:22, 10/06:2021, 5/07:21, 5/08:15 in dairy industry: 1/08:20-21 in meat processing firms: 2/08:16-17 comparison of Slovenian and European enterprises 1/05:20-21 enterprises by size 7/05:17, 7/06:20-21, 89/07:22-23, 6/08:19-20 entrepreneurial activity 5/06:17-18 compulsory settlement, bankruptcies, liquidations 3/05:19 ownership structure, ownership concentration 1/03:15, 3/05:22, 6/05:15 foreign direct investment ' performance of companies employing foreign capital 7/03:21, 8-9/03:21, 10/03:21 number of business entities 5/07:20, 4/08:21 solvency of business entities 3/05:23, 5/06:23, 5/07:22, 4/08:22 small sole proprietorships 12/05:20 Doing Business rankings (WB) 12/06:24-25 Competitiveness (export competitiveness) price and cost competitiveness - effective exchange rate, unit labour costs: quarterly trends 2/03:7, 5/03:5, 8-9/03:8, 11/03:5, 3/04:4, 5/04:5, 8-9/04:7, 11/04:6, 2/05:6, 10/05:4, 11/05:6, 2/06:7, 6/06:4, 8- 9/06:5, 12/06:8, 3/07:5, 5/07:6, 8-9/07:5, 11/07:6, 6/08:5 annual trends 2/03:8, 3/04:5, 2/05:7, 3/07:5, 3/08:6 market share 10/05:5, 6/06:5, 12/06:9, 4/07:6, 3/08:7 value added and productivity methodological changes in measuring competitiveness 12/06:26 Competitiveness of nations global competitiveness and country risk, int. comparison 3/03:6 global competitiveness IMD's annual report 5/03:17, 5/04:18, 5/05:20-21, 7/05:22-23, 5/06:19-20, 5/07:23-24 - location attractiveness 11/03:20-21 WEF Report 1/05:18-19, 12/05:17-18, 1/06:19, 1/07:24-25 Country risk see Competitiveness of nations Crime international comparison 3/03:26 trends in Slovenia 4/03:17 Development Report 3/03:20-21, 3/05:4-5, 5/06:4-5 Distributive trades selected indicators 3/06:11, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17, 6/08:16 value added 3/03:15, 6/03:12, 8-9/03:17, 12/03:13, 6/04:14, 8-9/04:19, 3/06:11, 7/06:15, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17, 6/08:16 sales capacities 12/06:23 competition 2/07:22 Earnings gross wage per employee by activities 1/03:10, 2/03:14-15, 4/03:12, 5/03:11, 6/03:10, 7/03:12, 8-9/03:13, 10/03:9, 11/03:11, 12/03:10, 1/04:11, 2/04:12, 3/04:12, 4/04:13, 5/04:11, 6/04:10, 7/04:11, 8-9/04:13, 10/04:13, 11/04:12, 12/04:10, 1/05:11, 2/05:14, 7/05:3, 8-9/05:12, 10/05:14, 11/05:14, 12/05:10, 1/06:12, 2/06:13, 3/06:9, 4/06:14, 5/06:10, 6/06:12-13, 7/06:11, 89/06:12, 10/06:11, 11/06:12, 12/06:15, 1/07:12, 2/07:12, 3/07:8, 4/07:14, 5/07:11, 6/07:11, 7/07:12, 8-9/07:12, 10/07:11, 11/07:12, 12/07:11, 1/08:12, 2/08:10, 3/08:15, 4/08:12, 5/08:9, 6/08:11, 7/08:12 earnings in the public sector 7/07:19-20, 6/08:12 Economic growth see GDP see also Sustainable development see also Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia Economic Policy Government's Programme for Effective Integration into the European Union 7/03:3 Programme for Entering the ERM II and Introducing the Euro 11/03:3 Education see Human resources Energy sector electricity selected indicators (production and consumption, international comparison) 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/04:14, 4/04:15, 7/04:15, 10/04:16, 1/05:14, 4/05:14, 7/05:14, 10/05:17, 1/06:15, 4/06:17, 7/06:13, 10/06:14, 1/07:15, 4/07:16, 7/07:15, 11/07:15, 1/08:15, 4/08:15, 7/08:14 prices 10/04:16, 2/07:20-21 international comparison 7/06:13, 2/07:20-21 electricity market 2/07:20-21, 11/07:15 oil and oil products excise duties 1/03:13, 7/03:15, 4/04:15 prices - international comparison 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/05:14 pricing model for liquid fuel prices 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 4/04:15, 7/04:15,19 Environment - Environmental policy see also Sustainable development environmental component of economic development 5/07:17 greenhouse gas emissions 6/07:22-23, 4/08:19 economic trends and forecasts 3/03:4-5, 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 7/04:3,19, 11/05:3, 11/06:4, 3/08:5, 4/08:3-4 Lisbon strategy 11/05:4-5 Stability and growth pact 10/06:19 tax and contributions structure 11/05:19-20 public finance flows between SLO and EU 1/07:26, 10/07:22-23 regional disparities: 4/08:20 Exchange rate see Competitiveness Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) II 6/04:3, 6/04:6 External debt of Slovenia 2/03:6, 10/04:6, 3/05:6 external debt statistics according to new methodology: - gross external debt it s dynamic indicators 10/03:20 foreign exchange reserves/external debt 2/03:6 Forecasts for Slovenian economy by IMAD autumn forecasts 8-9/03:3, 10/04:3-4, 8-9/05:4, 8-9/06:4, 8-9/07:3 spring forecasts 4/03:3-4, 4/04:3-4, 4/05:3-4, 4/06:3-4, 4/07:4, 3/08:3 Foreign analysts forecasts 4/06:5 GDP - Slovenia annual and quarterly growth 3/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/06:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:3, 3/08:4, 6/08:3 - economic growth components 3/03:3, 89/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:5, 3/08:4 - international comparison see International environment quarterly growth 6/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 12/03:3, 3/04:3, 6/04:3, 8-9/04:3, 12/04:3, 1/05:3, 3/05:3, 8-9/06:3, 11/06:4-5, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:3, 12/07:5, 2/08:4, 3/08:5, 5/08:4, 6/08:4 Past and Future of Slovenian GDP 12/04:22 Room for Future Improvement of Slovenian GDP Growth 12/04:23 Global competitiveness see Competitiveness of nations Households private consumption and indebtedness 1/04:13, 7/04:13, 8-9/04:15, 12/04:12, 3/05:16, 6/05:11, 8-9/05:15, 12/05:11, 3/06:12, 6/06:15, 8-9/06:15, 12/06:17, 3/07:9, 3/07:18, 6/07:15, 8-9/07:15, 12/07:15, 3/08:19, 6/08:14 available and allocated assets of households 12/05:19, 1/07:20-21, 12/07:20-21, 1/08:22, 7/08:21-22 Human development see Social indicators Human resources see also Social Indicators Education youth in secondary education 6/07:19-21 adults in secondary schools 7/06:22-23 informal/continuing education 10/06:18, 12/07:19 lifelong learning 6/06:21-22 higher education 7/05:20-21, 8-9/05:22, 7/06:24 higher education-scholarships 8-9/06:21, 1/08:19 mobility of students 4/07:24-25, 5/07:18-19 expenditure on educational institutions -international comparison 6/05:17, 1/06:20-21 public expenditure on education -international comparison 12/04:21, 1/06:2021 science and technology graduates 3/06:1617 Industry and construction construction 2/03:17, 5/03:14, 8-9/03:16, 11/03:14, 2/04:15, 5/04:14, 8-9/04:18, 12/04:14, 2/05:17, 5/05:12, 8-9/05:14, 11/05:16, 2/06:15, 5/06:12, 8-9/06:14, 11/06:14, 2/07:14, 5/07:13, 8-9/07:14, 11/07:14, 2/08:12, 5/08:11 manufacturing technology intensity 10/07:20-21, 11/07:13 production volumes, trends, forecasts and employment 1/03:12, 3/03:17, 4/03:14, 5/03:13, 6/03:13, 7/03:14, 8-9/03:15, Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 19 10/03:11, 11/03:13, 12/03:12, 2/04:14, 5/04:13, 6/04:12, 7/04:14, 8-9/04:17, 10/04:15, 11/04:14, 12/04:13, 1/05:13, 2/05:16, 4/05:13, 5/05:11, 6/05:12, 7/05:12, 8-9/05:13, 10/05:15, 11/05:15, 12/05:12, 1/06:13, 2/06:14, 3/06:10, 4/06:15, 5/06:11, 6/06:14, 7/06:12, 8-9/06:13, 10/06:12, 11/06:13, 12/06:16, 1/07:13, 2/07:13, 4/07:15, 5/07:12, 6/07:12, 7/07:13, 8-9/07:13, 10/07:12, 11/07:13, 12/07:12, 1/08:13, 2/08:11, 3/08:16, 4/08:13, 5/08:10, 6/08:13, 7/08:13 value added and productivity by activities 8-9/03:15 Industrial policy State aid - international comparisons 1/03:16 Industrial relations see also Labour market employment relationship collective bargaining coverage and extension procedures 2/04:22-23 European works councils 5/05:22 working time 11/04:20 data collections and international comparisons 3/04:20-21 membership in employers' organisations 12/03:18 employee participation in a European Joint-Stock Company 3/05:23 Inflation see Prices Institutions trust in institutions 4/06:21 Insurance sector international comparison export financing and export credit insurance see Balance of payments / foreign trade policy International environment 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 1/05:3, 5/05:3, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 1/07:4, 2/07:4-5, 3/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 6/07:4, 7/07:4, 8-9/07:4, 10/07:4, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:4, 1/08:4, 2/08:4, 4/08:3, 5/08:3-4, 6/08:4, 7/08:4 Germany 1/02:5, 3/03:4,5, 7/03:4, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 2/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 7/07:4, 1/08:4, 5/08:4, 6/08:4, 7/08:4 candidate-countries for the EU economic developments and forecasts 4/02:4 Croatia 3/07:4, 6/07:4 Labour market see also Industrial relations unemployment structure of registered unemployment 2/03:13, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 1/06:11, 2/08:9 survey unemployment rate 3/03:12, 5/03:10, 8-9/03:12, 2/04:11, 2/05:13, 2/06:3, 12/06:14, 2/07:3, 2/07:11, 5/07:3, 2/08:9, 5/08:8 selected labour market indicators 1/03:9, 2/03:13, 3/03:12, 4/03:11, 5/03:10, 6/03:9, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 10/03:8, 11/03:10, 12/03:9, 1/04:10, 2/04:11, 3/04:11, 4/04:12, 5/04:10, 6/04:9, 7/04:10, 8-9/04:12, 10/04:12, 11/04:11, 12/04:9, 1/05:10, 2/05:13, 3/05:11, 4/05:11, 5/05:10, 6/05:10, 7/05:11, 8-9/05:11, 10/05:13, 11/05:13, 12/05:9, 1/06:10, 2/06:11, 3/06:8, 4/06:12, 5/06:3, 5/06:9, 6/06:11, 7/06:10, 8-9/06:11, 10/06:10, 11/06:11, 12/06:14, 1/07:11, 2/07:10, 3/07:7, 4/07:13, 5/07:10, 6/07:3, 6/07:10, 7/07:11, 89/07:11, 10/07:10, 11/07:11, 12/07:10, 1/08:11, 2/08:8, 3/08:14, 4/08:11, 5/08:8 , 6/08:10, 7/08:11 vacancies and people hired 2/06:12 job vacancy rate 10/07:18 education structure of persons in employment 12/03:9 employment by activities 4/06:13 employment rate of older workers 8-9/04:25 employment of foreigners 4/07:22-23 jobs and (un)employment across regions 3/03:19, 8-9/07:21, 10/07:19 labour market flexibility 3/05:20-21 occupational structure of labour demand 4/03:11 structural unemployment 10/03:8 part-time work 2/03:19 employment programmes 10,000 Programme 11/03:10 Public Works Programmes 4/04:12 Programme of promoting self-employment 5/04:10 legislation Employment of Foreigners Act 6/03:9 Vocational Rehabilitation and Employment of Disabled Persons Act 7/04:10 productivity growth 1/04:10 Manufacturing see Industry Money market and monetary policy money aggregates, interest and exchange rates 1/03:6, 2/03:10, 3/03:9, 4/03:7, 5/03:7, 6/03:6, 7/03:7, 10/03:6, 11/03:7, 12/03:6, 1/04:6, 2/04:8, 3/04:8, 4/04:8, 5/04:7, 6/04:6, 7/04:6, 8-9/04:9, 10/04:8, 11/04:8, 12/04:6, 1/05:6, 2/05:10, 3/05:8, 4/05:7, 5/05:7, 6/05:7, 7/05:6, 8-9/05:8, 10/05:8, 11/05:10, 12/05:6 monetary policy guidelines 10/02:3-4 banks money market, loans 1/03:8, 2/03:12, 3/03:11, 4/03:9, 5/03:9, 6/03:8, 7/03:9, 89/03:11, 11/03:9, 12/03:8, 1/04:8, 2/04:10, 3/04:10, 4/04:10, 5/04:9, 6/04:8, 7/04:8, 89/04:11, 10/04:10, 11/04:10, 12/04:8,1/05:8, 2/05:12, 3/05:10, 4/05:9, 5/05:9, 6/05:9, 7/05:8, 8-9/05:10, 10/05:10, 11/05:12, 12/05:8, 1/06:7, 2/06:10, 3/06:7, 4/06:9, 6/06:8, 7/06:6, 8-9/06:9, 10/06:6, 11/06:9, 12/06:12, 1/07:7, 4/07:10, 5/07:9, 6/07:9, 7/07:8, 8-9/07:10, 10/07:7, 11/07:10,12/07:9, 1/08:8, 2/08:7, 3/08:11, 4/08:8, 6/08:9, 7/08:8 savings with banks and mutual funds 1/03:7, 2/03:11, 3/03:10, 4/03:8, 5/03:8, 6/03:7, 7/03:8, 8-9/03:10, 11/03:8, 12/03:7, 1/04:7, 2/04:9, 3/04:9, 4/04:9, 5/04:8, 6/04:7, 7/04:7, 8-9/04:10, 10/04:9, 11/04:9, 12/04:7, 1/05:7, 2/05:11, 3/05:9, 4/05:8, 5/05:8, 6/05:8, 7/05:7, 8-9/05:9, 10/05:9, 11/05:11, 12/05:7, 1/06:6, 2/06:9, 3/06:6, 4/06:8, 5/06:21, 6/06:9, 7/06:7, 8-9/06:10, 10/06:7, 11/06:10, 12/06:13, 1/07:8, 4/07:9, 5/07:8, 6/07:8, 7/07:7, 8-9/07:9, 10/07:6, 11/07:9, 12/07:8, 1/08:7, 2/08:6, 3/08:12, 4/08:7, 6/08:8, 7/08:7 Maastricht criteria long-term interest rates 5/04:19 Population 1/07:22-23, 12/07:22-23 household savings see The money market Prices price trends - inflation, administered and unregulated prices 1/03:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 4/03:6, 5/03:6, 6/03:5, 7/03:6, 8-9/03:9, 10/03:5, 11/03:6, 12/03:5, 1/04:5, 2/04:7, 3/04:7, 4/04:7, 5/04:6, 6/04:5, 7/04:5, 8-9/04:8, 10/04:7, 11/04:7, 12/04:5, 1/05:5, 2/05:9, 3/05:7, 4/05:6, 5/05:6,23,24, 6/05:6, 7/05:5, 8-9/05:3, 8-9/05:7, 10/05:3, 10/05:7, 11/05:9, 12/05:3,5, 1/06:5, 2/06:8, 3/06:5, 4/06:7, 5/06:8, 6/06:7, 7/06:5,19, 89/06:8, 10/06:5, 11/06:8, 12/06:3, 12/06:11, 1/07:6, 1/07:19, 2/07:9, 3/07:6, 4/07:8, 4/07:3, 5/07:3, 5/07:7, 6/07:3, 6/07:7, 7/07:3, 7/07:6, 8-9/07:3, 8-9/07:8, 10/07:3, 10/07:5, 11/07:3, 11/07:8, 12/07:3, 12/07:7, 1/08:6, 2/08:3, 2/08:5, 3/08:3, 3/08:10, 4/08:6, 5/08:3, 5/08:7, 6/08:3, 6/08:7, 7/08:3, 7/08:6 prices policy 5/05:23, 6/05:6 harmonised index of consumer prices 1/05:22 core inflation 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 6/03:5 producer prices 3/07:6 bond yield curve see Money market and Monetary policy and Stock Exchange Productivity see Industry and Competitiveness Private Consumption see Households Public finance general government revenue 1/03:11, 2/03:16, 3/03:13, 4/03:13, 5/03:12, 6/03:11, 7/03:13, 10/03:10, 11/03:12, 12/03:11, 1/04:12, 2/04:13, 3/04:13, 4/04:14, 5/04:12, 6/04:11, 7/04:12, 8-9/04:14, 10/04:14, 11/04:13, 12/04:11, 1/05:12, 2/05:15, 4/05:12, 7/05:10, 10/05:12, 1/06:9, 4/06:11, 7/06:9, 10/06:9, 1/07:10, 4/07:12, 7/07:10, 10/07:9, 1/08:10, 3/08:13, 4/08:10, 7/08:10 general government expenditures 3/05:12, 6/06:10, 3/08:13 general government balance 12/04:3, 3/05:12, 3/08:13 state^ budget 3/05:12, 7/08:19-20 public expenditure on education - international comparison 12/04:21 Public services network see also Human resources 7/04:20 - international comp. 7/04:21 Public institutes financial results in 2002 11/03:18 financing 11/03:19 Public Health Institutes 2/04:20-21 Quality of life seeSocial indicators Research and development see Technological development Regional development company performance by regions 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25 development deficiency index 7/06:25 jobs and (un)employment across regions 10/03:16, 4/04:20, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25, 89/07:21, 10/07:19 regional GDP 8-9/03:19, 4/04:20, 7/04:23, 7/05:24, 2/06:19 population's education structure - regional aspect 6/03:15, 4/04:20 population's demographic structure 5/06:24, 11/07:20 personal income tax base per capita 6/06:20, 3/08:23 Report on structural reforms 10/03:3 structural changes in network industries 4/07:26-27 Report on economic and social cohesion 2/04:18-19 Services domestic trade see Distributive trades information technology see Information technology real estate, renting and business services 4/04:16, 5/05:15, 12/05:13 prices of telecommunication services 2/06:20 tourism see Tourism trade in services see Balance of payments Social indicators civil society see Civil society equal opportunities policy 1/04:20-21, 3/04:1819, 2/05:21-22 trust in other people 6/06:19 Human Development Report 5/03:18-19, 8-9/05:19, 11/06:17, 1/08:23 Social Overview 2006 12/06:4-5 human resources mortality caused by injuries: - due to external causes of injury 4/03:18 - by age and gender 5/03:20 gender-related development index 3/03:22, 10/05:21 gender empowerment measure 10/03:17, 10/04:19 gender equality 10/04:19 human development index 7/03:17, 7/04:22 health insurance - supplementary 1/04:19 health expenditure 2/07:23, 4/07:30-31 social welfare cash benefits 11/06:18 social protection of the elderly 3/03:23 indicators (happiness, satisfaction with life, etc) 12/04:24-25, 3/06:18, 4/07:28-29 jobless households 3/07:15 long-term care 12/04:26-27, 4/07:32 the at-risk-of-poverty rate 11/03:22, 11/04:17, 6/07:24, 2/08:15 transfers expenditures for social protection 4/04:19, 3/06:19, 11/07:21 social benefits: - pensions 2/07:19 - financial social assistance 1/05:17 trust in institutions see Institutions Stock exchange turnover, capitalisation, indices 4/03:10, 7/03:10, 10/03:7, 1/04:9, 4/04:11, 7/04:9, 10/04:11, 1/05:9, 4/05:10, 7/05:9, 10/05:11, 1/06:8, 4/06:10, 7/06:8, 10/06:8, Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 p. A 20 1/07:9, 4/07:11, 7/07:9, 10/07:8, 1/08:9, 4/08:9, 7/08:9 Strategy of Slovenia's Development 6/05:4,5 Sustainable development ecological footprint 8-9/05:20-21 Technological development R&D activity in Slovenia 10/03:18-19 Public Research Institutes 11/05:21-22 science and technology graduates/students 3/06:16-17, 11/07:22-23 Tourism travels of domestic population 1/03:14, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 7/03:16, 1/04:16, 12/04:28, 1/06:22, 1/07:27 foreign exchange receipts 3/06:15, 12/06:19, 3/08:18 overnight stays by resort 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 1/04:15, 5/06:13, 6/07:14 selected indicators 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 10/03:13, 1/04:15, 6/04:13, 8-9/04:21, 12/04:17, 3/05:14, 5/05:14, 10/05:18, 1/06:16, 5/06:13, 8-9/06:17, 12/06:19, 3/07:10, 6/07:14, 89/07:17, 12/07:14, 3/08:18, 6/08:15 survey on foreign tourists in the summer season 6/04:19 Transport selected indicators 5/03:16, 11/03:15, 2/04:16, 5/04:15, 8-9/04:20, 12/04:15, 3/05:15, 7/05:13, 10/05:16, 1/06:14, 4/06:16, 7/06:14, 10/06:13, 1/07:14, 4/07:17, 7/07:14, 10/07:13, 1/08:14, 4/08:14, 7/08:15 Value added see Competitiveness and Industry and Distributive trades Welfare see Sustainable development social welfare indicators: see Social indicators Acronyms in the text have the following meanings: AIS-Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, AJPES-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AP-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Payments, APr-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Privatisation, BS-Bank of Slovenia, bn-billion, CCIS-Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia, CSCC-Central Securities Clearing Corporation, DUNZ-Directorate of Administrative Interior Affairs, DURS-Tax Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, EIMV-Electro Institute Milan Vidmar, ELES-Electro Slovenia, ESS-Employment Service of Slovenia, GEM-Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HII-Health Insurance Institute, ICT-information and communications technologies, IER-Institute for Economic Research, IAAD-International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD-Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IPI-Industrial Price Index, LSE-Ljubljana Stock Exchange, m-million, MAFF-Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food, MEA-Ministry of Economic Affairs, MES-Ministry of Education and Sport, MESP-Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, MF-Ministry of Finance, MIA-Ministry of Internal Affairs, MLFSA-Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs, MMTS-Market Maker Trading Segment, MST-Ministry of Science and Technology, N/A or (-)-not available, N/R-not reasonable, NFC-National Financial Corporation, NPISH-Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households, OG-Uradni list Republike Slovenije (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia), PDII-Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, p.p.-percentage points, PPA-Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, PPP-purchasing power parity, PPS-purchasing parity standards, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SDC-Slovene Development Corporation, SEC-Slovene Exports Corporation, SIA-Slovenian Insurance Association, SITC-Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS-Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS-Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA): A-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, B-Fishing, C-Mining and quarrying, D-manufacturing, DA-food beverages and tobacco, DB-textiles and textile products, DC-leather and leather products, DD-wood and wood products, DE-paper, publishing, printing, DF-coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel, DG-chemicals, DH-rubber and plastic products, DI-non-metal mineral products, DJ-metals and metal products, DK-machinery and equipment, DL-electrical and optical equipment, DM-transport equipment, DN-furniture and NEC, E-Electricity, gas and water supply, F-Construction, G-Wholesale, retail, trade, repair, H-Hotels and restaurants, I-Transport, storage, communications, J-Financial intermediation, K-Real estate, renting and business activities, L-Public administ. & defence; comp. soc. sec., M-Education, N-Health and social work, O-Other social and personal services. Acronyms of Countries: AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia. Data: data for trends and seasonally adjusted series are calculated by using TRAMO-SEATS method if not stated otherwise. The IMAD's Other Publications Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 7/2008 Social Overview 2006, 2007 Forecasts of Economic Trends Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2007 Slovenia's Development Strategy (SDS 2006-2013), 2005 Spring Report 2006 Analysis, Research and Development Autumn Report 2006 Human Development Report Slovenia 2002-2003 Development Report 2007 Slovenia - On the Way to the Information Society • No. 6/2007. Innovation Cooperation and Innovation Activity of Slovenian Enterprises, Jaklič Andreja, Jože P. Damijan, Matija Rojec • No. 11/2006. Firm of Private Value: What is Behind the Creation of Multiple Blockholder Structure? A. Brezigar Masten, A. Gregorič, K. Zajc • No. 2/2006. Does Exporting Boost Capital Investments? The Evidence from Slovenian Manufacturing Firms' Balance Sheets, A. Burger, M. Ferjančič Working papers • No. 5/2004. On the possibility of negative effects of EU entry on output, employment, wages and inflation in Slovenia, A. Brezigar • 4/2004. Future GDP growth in Slovenia: Looking for room for improvement, E. L. W. Jongen • 3/2004. An analysis of past and future GDP growth in Slovenia, E. L. W. Jongen • 1/2004. Productivity growth and functional upgrading in foreign subsidiaries in the Slovenian manufacturing sector, M. Rojec, B. Majcen, A. Jaklič, S. Radošević More Working papers are available in Slovene. 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