Acta geographica Slovenica, 57-2, 2017, 33–44
AIR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT
MOUNT ŚNIEŻKA (POLISH SUDETES)
AND SOLAR ACTIVITY, 1881–2012
Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński
Mount Śnieżka (1,603 m), November 12th, 2011.
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Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes)
and solar activity, 1881–2012
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3986/AGS.837
UDC: 911.2:551.524(438.3)"1881/2012"
COBISS: 1.01
ABSTRACT: This article discusses air temperature variability at Mount Śnieżka in the Sudetes from 1881
to 2012. It analyzes the relationship between changing trends in mean annual air temperature (Tavg) and
solar activity, expressed by the mean annual Wolf number. The characteristic feature of changes in annual
mean extremes (Tmax, Tmin) and Tavg at Mount Śnieżka is an upward trend. The increase of Tmin (0.148 °C /
10 years) has been twice as fast as that for Tmax (0.069 °C / 10 years). A strong correlation (almost 1.0) was
found between the mean annual Wolf number for twenty-two-year cycles of magnetic changes in the Sun
and 1988. During the 1989–2012 cycle, there was a strong increase in Tavg and, at the same time, a decrease
in the mean annual Wolf number.
KEY WORDS: geography, air temperature, long-term trends, impact of changes, mean Wolf number, Mount
Śnieżka, Poland
The article was submitted for publication on May 20th, 2014.
ADDRESSES:
Grzegorz Urban
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management
National Research Institute,
Parkowa Str. 30, PL – 51-616 Wrocław, Poland
E-mail: grzegorz.urban@imgw.pl, urbag@poczta.onet.pl
Karol Tomczyński
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management
National Research Institute,
Parkowa Str. 30, PL – 51-616 Wrocław, Poland
E-mail: karol.tomczynski@imgw.pl
Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński, Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes) and solar activity, 1881–2012
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Table 1: Comparison of monthly and seasonal mean air temperature (°C) from 1881 to 2012 as provided by IMGW-PIB: (A) derived from various
calculation methods and (B) determined using the method adopted in this work.
Ja
nu
ar
y
Fe
br
ua
ry
M
arc
h
Ap
ril
M
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
gu
st
Se
pt
em
be
r
Oc
to
be
r
No
ve
m
be
r
De
ce
m
be
r
W
int
er 
(D
ec
em
be
r–
Fe
br
ua
ry
)
Sp
rin
g (
M
arc
h–
M
ay
)
Su
m
m
er 
(Ju
ne
–A
ug
us
t)
Au
tu
m
n (
Se
pt
em
be
r–
No
ve
m
be
r)
W
arm
 se
as
on
 (M
ay
–O
cto
be
r)
Co
ld 
se
as
on
 (J
an
ua
ry–
Ap
ril 
an
d N
ov
em
be
r–
De
ce
m
be
r)
Ye
ar 
(Ja
nu
ar
y–
De
ce
m
be
r)
A –7.0 –7.0 –5.0 –1.4 3.7 6.6 8.5 8.3 5.3 1.5 –2.8 –5.6 –6.5 –0.9 7.8 1.3 5.6 –4.8 0.4
B –7.0 –7.0 –5.0 –1.3 3.9 6.8 8.8 8.6 5.5 1.6 –2.7 –5.6 –6.5 –0.8 8.1 1.5 5.9 –4.8 0.5
35
Acta geographica Slovenica, 57-2, 2017
1 Introduction
In recent years, much attention has been devoted to air temperature trends in the context of global warm-
ing (IPCC 2013). In such research, long and homogenous measuring series are very useful. The best sites
for obtaining such series are isolated, high-elevation mountain summits free of local anthropogenic impact
and preserving conditions close to those in a free atmosphere. The conditions at such locations make it
possible to follow changes in air temperature over time with high reliability. All of these characteristics apply
to the Mount Śnieżka Meteorological Observatory (1,603m) in the Sudetes, operating since July 1st, 1880. The
climate at Mount Śnieżka has been the subject of many studies (Głowicki 1998, 2000, 2001, 2003; Dubicka
and Głowicki 2000a and 2000b; Wibig and Głowicki 2002). Nonetheless, neither its temperature measuring
series going back 130 years nor its trends have been discussed.
This article analyzes the variability of annual, seasonal, and monthly mean air temperatures from 1881
to 2012. Variability of annual mean air temperature in relation to solar activity, the index of which is the
Wolf number, is also discussed.
2 Data and methods
The source data used in this paper include monthly and annual mean maximum and minimum air tem-
peratures registered at Mount Śnieżka from 1881 to 2012. The data were obtained from the archives of
the German Meteorological Service (DWD) in Offenbach, Germany, and the Institute of Meteorology and
Water Management, National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) in Warsaw, Poland.
Based on monthly and annual mean maximums and mean minimums, monthly mean and annual mean
temperatures were calculated as the arithmetic mean of corresponding mean extremes using the following
formula: (Tmax + Tmin) / 2. This equation is commonly used for calculating the daily air temperature in North
America, Australia, and several European countries (e.g., the UK; Urban 2010). Consequently, a homoge-
nous series of monthly and annual mean values was obtained. The series is free from potential differences
resulting from application of various methods of calculating daily mean values during the period analyzed,
and consequently differences of calculations of monthly and annual mean values of air temperature based
on measurements taken up to twenty-four times a day (Lorenc and Suwalska-Bogucka 1995; Urban 2010).
Moreover, the calculation method adopted for mean air temperature works well for long (e. g., annual) time
intervals (Urban 2010 and 2013).
The method used for calculating both monthly and annual mean values of air temperature yields high-
er monthly values in the warm season than the corresponding values provided by IMGW-PIB or the ones
referred to in the literature on the subject (which combine different methods). Consequently, the differ-
ences are noticeable in the case of values for summer months, the warm season, and also a year. There are
no differences for winter months (Table 1).
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Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński, Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes) and solar activity, 1881–2012
36
It must also be noted that the sites of measuring instruments have changed in the history of meteo-
rological measurements and observations at Mount Śnieżka. Until May 31st, 1900, thermometers were attached
2.05 m above the ground to an iron stand located beside the north wall of St. Laurence's Chapel. Starting
on June 1st, 1900, they were moved to a Stevenson screen placed on the platform of the former observa-
tory building, about 16 m above the ground. Finally, since October 23, 1976, the thermometers have been
enclosed in a Stevenson screen on the platform of the new observatory, about 14 m above the ground
(Głowicki 1998).
The absence of an analogical measuring series taken at a relatively close distance in similar climate
conditions that could be used as reference data and the lack of ground-level measurements of air ther-
micity in a vertical profile make it difficult to test the homogeneity of chronological data series. The air
temperature measurement series carried out at Mount Śnieżka since the beginning of the twentieth cen-
tury is considered homogenous (Głowicki 1998 and 2000; Wibig and Głowicki 2002). So far, there has been
no study to determine whether the series homogeneity was disrupted by the location changes of thermometers
in 1900 and 1976.
Figure 1: Former IMGW-PIB observatory building at Mount Śnieżka.
Figure 2: New IMGW-PIB observatory building at Mount Śnieżka.
W
A
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E
R
 S
T
A
U
D
T
E
 (
IN
T
E
R
N
E
T
 1
)
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Acta geographica Slovenica, 57-2, 2017
37
In order to test whether the change of the measuring instrument locations in 1900 and 1976 affected
the data series homogeneity, a data quality check of series from 1881 to 1919 and from 1957 to 1995 in each
category of air temperature data (Tavg, Tmin, Tmax) was carried out using the Abbe criterion (Kożuchowski 1985,
following Nosek 1972; Table 2). The years 1900 and 1976, when two instrument sites were functioning,
mark the midpoint of the time series tested for homogeneity. The results show that relocating the ther-
mometers from the iron stand next to the Saint Laurence's Chapel to the old wooden observatory (Figure 1)
and to the new observatory (Figure 2) did not affect the data series homogeneity.
Table 2: Homogeneity of air temperature data series at Mount Śnieżka tested using the Abbe criterion and values of annual mean air temperature (°C).
Period Abbe test results Tavg (°C)
Tavg Tmin Tmax
1881–1919 0.840/0.867/1.160 0.840/0.986/1.160 0.840/0.937/1.160 0.10
1957–1995 0.840/1.007/1.160 0.840/1.054/1.160 0.840/0.988/1.160 0.76
Based on the assessment of air temperature series at Mount Śnieżka, it is possible to draw conclusions
on potential climate variability. The measuring series provides such an opportunity because of its unique
length, comparable to only a few data series in Europe; namely, from Mount Säntis and Mount Sonnblick
(Auer 2004). The characterization and assessment of the data series of temperatures at Mount Śnieżka
from 1881 to 2012 was followed by an analysis of variability of the calculated monthly and annual mean
air temperature values (the arithmetic average of corresponding mean extreme values) as well as maxi-
mum and minimum average values. Moreover, an attempt was made to determine the relationship between
annual mean air temperature and the mean annual Wolf number. Wolf numbers were provided by the Royal
Observatory of Belgium (SILSO data 2014).
The Wolf number (W) is derived from the formula W= k(10g+s), where g is the number of sunspot groups,
s is the number of individual spots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation.
3 Results
3.1 Air temperature trends
The mean annual air temperature at Mount Śnieżka for the entire 132-year period is +0.5 °C. The lowest
annual mean temperature of –1.2 °C was noted in 1941, and the highest value of +2.3 °C was registered
in 2000, 2006, and 2011 (Figure 5).
The trend of annual mean temperature at Mount Śnieżka from 1881 to 2012 is 0.108°C / 10 years (Table 3).
Many authors give similar values of air thermicity trends in the northern hemisphere in the twentieth centu-
ry (Lorenc 1994; Karl et al. 1993; Karl, Nicholls and Gregory 1997; Schönwiese and Rapp 1997; Nojarov 2012;
IPCC 2013).
The variability of annual mean extreme values (Tmax, Tmin) and the annual mean value (Tavg) of air tem-
perature at Mount Śnieżka from 1881 to 2012 is characterized by an upward tendency. The increase rate
of Tmin is twice the increase rate of Tmax; that is, 0.148°C / 10 years and 0.069°C / 10 years, respectively (Figure 3,
Table 3). Consequently, a decreasing trend in the annual mean amplitude of air temperature is perceptible;
that is, –0.080 °C / 10 years. Tmin shows a continuous increase since the beginning of observation (Figure 3).
A higher rate of increase of the minimum when compared to the maximum air temperature, causing
a  flattening of diurnal amplitudes, is currently observed in many areas of the globe (Karl  et al.  1993;
Kejna 2006). This tendency has not yet been explained. It could be the result of synergy of several factors.
It is probably related to the escalation of the greenhouse effect, in which greenhouse gasses slow down the
rate of heat loss from Earth's surface emitting infrared radiation out into space. Hence, nights warm faster
than days. On a global scale, one cause might be increased cosmic radiation, the flux of which is the high-
est during solar minimum activity. Cosmic rays increase the ionization of air particles at high altitudes,
which can contribute to increased cloudiness over the Earth, and clouds effectively decrease the quanti-
ty of heat emitted from the Earth (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen 1997).
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y = 0.0148 x 30.761–
y = 0.0069 x – 10.252
–4.5
–4.0
–3.5
–3.0
–2.5
–2.0
–1.5
–1.0
–0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Years
T
( °
C
)
Tmin Tmax T mov.avg 11-yrsmin T mov.avg 11-yrsmax
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 3: Changes in annual mean maximum values (Tmax) and mean minimum values (Tmin) of air temperature, trend line, and eleven-year mean
consecutive values at Mount Śnieżka, 1881–2012.
Table 3: Mean air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (°C / 10 years), 1881–2012.
Period Tavg Tmax Tmin
Year (Jan–Dec) 0.108 0.069 0.148
Warm season (May–Oct) 0.107 0.059 0.151
Cold season (Nov–Apr) 0.105 0.072 0.139
Winter (Dec–Feb) 0.086 0.064 0.114
Spring (Mar–May) 0.124 0.073 0.169
Summer (Jun–Aug) 0.114 0.057 0.167
Autumn (Sept–Nov) 0.106 0.070 0.138
January 0.099 0.078 0.121
February 0.076 0.043 0.109
March 0.121 0.076 0.165
April 0.149 0.104 0.194
May 0.102 0.058 0.147
June 0.099 0.044 0.154
July 0.081 0.026 0.136
August 0.162 0.113 0.210
September 0.052 0.007 0.097
October 0.146 0.128 0.164
November 0.120 0.087 0.154
December 0.090 0.061 0.119
38
Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński, Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes) and solar activity, 1881–2012
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Table 4: Average air temperatures at Mount Śnieżka by decade, 1881–2010.
De
ca
de
18
81
–9
0
18
91
–0
0
19
01
–1
0
19
11
–2
0
19
21
–3
0
19
31
–4
0
19
41
–5
0
19
51
–6
0
19
61
–7
0
19
71
–8
0
19
81
–9
0
19
91
–0
0
20
01
–1
0
T (°C) 0.0 0.3 –0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5
3.2 Solar activity and temperature changes
The impact of solar activity and cosmic radiation on the global climate is indisputable (Hoyt and Schatten 1997;
Svensmark and Friis-Christensen 1997; Raspopov, Dergachev and Kolström 2004; Lockwood 2012; Harvey 2013).
Over the past few centuries of observation, the number of sunspots has increased while the Earth has been
warming. It can be concluded that solar activity affects the global climate, causing warming of the planet
(Usoskin et al. 2005). This view is shared by Boryczka et al. (2012), who, based on the synchronicity of mul-
tiyear changes in air temperature in Warsaw and Wolf numbers, demonstrated that the Sun's activity is
one of the principal causes of climate change.
However, in recent decades, air temperature has increased considerably, whereas solar activity has shown
only small changes and, moreover, a downward trend (Lockwood 2008). Because total solar radiation, ultra-
violet radiation, and cosmic ray flux have not shown any significant changing trend in the past thirty
years, researchers have concluded that at least the last episode of warming must have a different cause
(Usoskin et al. 2005). On the other hand, Scafetta and West (2006) postulate that global warming has been
progressing at a much faster rate since 1975 than could be expected if the Sun were the sole cause.
Relating this point of view to the situation at Mount Śnieżka, it can be noted that the Wolf numbers
have decreased whereas the annual mean air temperature has increased since approximately 1990 (Figures 4
and 5). The most noticeable air temperature increase at Mount Śnieżka was registered between 1989 and 2012
(Figures 3 and 5); it is also in this period that the highest annual mean air temperature in the multiyear
period was noted, which was as high as 1.4 °C.
Nonetheless, it is difficult to see the relationship between the Wolf number and the annual mean air
temperature based on the plot of interannual variation of those two values (Figures 4 and 5). The average
duration of full solar magnetic activity cycle is twenty-two years – twice the length of the sunspot cycle.
The analysis of the solar variation impact on changes in Tavg at Mount Śnieżka shows that Tavg is strong-
ly correlated (the correlation coefficient is close to 1.0) with the mean Wolf number for twenty-two-year
solar magnetic activity cycles until 1988. In the 1989–2012 cycle, Tavg increased considerably whereas the
mean Wolf number dropped (Figure 6). It is concluded, then, that higher temperatures for the 1989–2012 cycle
of solar magnetic variability may reveal a synergy of astrophysical effects, and atmospheric and oceanic
circulation, modified by constantly increasing anthropogenic factors.
The synergy of factors (including solar activity) impacted the air temperature in Turkey from 1976
to 2006 (Kilcik et al. 2008). Lockwood and Fröhlich (2007) also point out the synergy of factors affecting
the global air temperature increase and opposite trends in solar activity and air temperature in the last twen-
ty years. Souza Echer et al. (2009) described similar results to those presented in this analysis, showing a high
correlation between global anomalies in air temperatures and twenty-two-year solar magnetic cycles from 1880
to 2000.
39
Acta geographica Slovenica, 57-2, 2017
Positive trends, with the exception of mid-annual values, are also noticeable for mean seasonal val-
ues and mean values of consecutive months (Table 3). Among the seasonal mean values, the highest increase
rate occurs for spring, 0.124 °C / 10 years, and the lowest for winter, 0.086 °C / 10 years. The cold season
(November–April) and the warm season (May–October) are characterized by an air temperature increase
rate almost similar to the annual rate, approximately 0.11 °C / 10 years. A higher variability of tempera-
ture increase at Mount Śnieżka from 1881 to 2012 is noted for mean monthly values, from 0.052 °C / 10 years
in September to 0.162 °C / 10 years in August. A high increase rate also characterizes April and October,
at 0.149 °C / 10 years and 0.146 °C / 10 years, respectively (Table 3).
Since the 1970s, a systematic increase in ten-year air temperature averages from +0.5 °C to +1.5 °C has
been seen (Table 4).
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y = 0.5028 x – 916.23 y = –3.8592 x + 7781.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wavg 1881–1989 Wavg 1989–2012
Linear (Wavg 1881–1989) Linear (Wavg 1989–2012)
W
av
g
y = 0.0108 x – 20.507
y = 0.0196 x – 37.748
–1.5
–1.0
–0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
T 1881–2012avg
T 11-yearsmovavg
Linear (T 1881–2012)avg Linear (T 1989–2012)avg
T
av
g 
(°
C
)
Figure 4: Plot of the mean Wolf number (Wavg), 1881–2012.
Figure 5: Annual mean air temperatures (Tavg) at Mount Śnieżka, 1881–2012. Note: the beginning of the second trend is 1989 because it is the beginning
of the Sun's last magnetic cycle (see Figure 6). Moreover, a remarkably faster air temperature change has been noted since 1989.
40
Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński, Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes) and solar activity, 1881–2012
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
W
1989–2012
1883–1904
1905–1927
1928–1946
1947–1967
1968–1988
T
 (
)
°C
y = 0.0117 x − 0.2875
R = 0.9891
linear trend: (1883–1988)
2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
320 330 340 350 360 370 380
CO (ppm)2
1961–1970
2001–2010
1991–2000
1981–1990
1971–1980
T
(
)
°C
y = 0.0183 x − 5.4339
R = 0.9543
Figure 6: Mean air temperature (T) at Mount Śnieżka and the mean Wolf number (W) for the twenty-two-year solar magnetic activity cycle (1883–1988).
Figure 7: Relationship between ten-year average values of air temperature (T) at Mount Śnieżka and CO2 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, 1961–2010.
41
Acta geographica Slovenica, 57-2, 2017
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Grzegorz Urban, Karol Tomczyński, Air temperature trends at Mount Śnieżka (Polish Sudetes) and solar activity, 1881–2012
In this paper, the period between every second maximum of solar activity (eleven-year ones) was taken
as a full magnetic cycle. This is due to the fact that magnetic cycle begins with the period of maximum
solar activity during which the Sun's magnetic flip takes place and, after two eleven-year cycles (i. e., on
average after twenty-two years), the polarity of the Sun returns to its former state (Internet 2).
In an attempt to explain the remarkably fast increase in air temperature at Mount Śnieżka despite
decreased Wolf numbers from 1989 to 2012, the relationship between air temperature and CO2 concen-
tration in the atmosphere was analyzed. The analysis was based on CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
measurements conducted at the Mouna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1959. Data from Mouna Loa in
Hawaii are considered to reflect global changes in CO2 concentration in the Earth's atmosphere.
Analysis of ten-year averages indicates a strong relationship between the air temperature increase at
Mount Śnieżka and the increase in CO2 concentration. This relationship is the strongest in the last two to
three decades (Figure 7).
4 Summary and conclusions
The analysis of measuring series of air temperature at Mount Śnieżka demonstrated that the relocation of
measurement instruments in 1900 and 1976 did not affect the homogeneity of the data series tested (Tavg,
Tmax, Tmin) and that the data can be used for climate change research. Moreover, it is one of the few con-
tinuous data series in Europe of such length and is a rich source of information on thermal conditions
closely corresponding to those of the free atmosphere.
A characteristic feature of variability of annual mean extreme (Tmax, Tmin) and annual mean (Tavg) air
temperature at Mount Śnieżka from 1881 to 2012 is its increasing trend.
The increase of Tmin is twice as fast as the increase of Tmax; that is, 0.148°C / 10 years and 0.069°C / 10 years,
respectively. Consequently, a negative tendency for annual mean air temperature amplitude of –0.080°C / 10 years
is noticeable.
Analysis of the impact of solar activity on Tavg changes at Mount Śnieżka showed that Tavg is strongly
correlated (a directly proportional linear relationship) with the mean Wolf number for twenty-two-year
solar magnetic activity cycles up to 1988. However, in the case of the 1989–2012 cycle, a considerable dif-
ference can be noticed in comparison to previous cycles from 1883 to 1988. Although Tavg shows a high
increase, the mean Wolf number has lower values. The higher temperatures during the 1989–2012 cycle
of solar magnetic variability probably reveal a synergy of astrophysical effects and atmospheric and ocean-
ic circulation modified by constantly intensifying anthropogenic factors. However, proving this hypothesis
requires further research.
These conclusions are tentative because they are based on data from one station located in a medium
latitude zone, where even a slight change in weather type distribution can result in changes in precipita-
tion and temperature.
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