No. 1, Vol. XXIII, 2017 Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf ) No. 1 / Vol. XXIII / 2017 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Urška Brodar, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Ana Vidrih, MSc. Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, MSc, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Demat d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International environment............................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic developments in Slovenia ............................................................................................................................. 9 Labour market .................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 Financial markets ............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Public finance.................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Statistical appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 21 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 6th January 2017. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The relatively favourable developments in the euro area have continued. The increase in private consumption was the main driver of economic growth in the first three quarters of 2016, which mainly reflected the recovery on the labour market. With confidence indicators improving further, the economic outlook for the beginning of 2017 is favourable. Last year, favourable trends in economic activity also continued in Slovenia; the labour market situation also improved further. Growth in exports and manufacturing production rose again as a result of increased foreign demand and gains in export competitiveness. With higher foreign demand, turnover was also up in some market services. The impact of domestic consumption was also positive. Growth in private consumption contributed significantly to the growth of turnover in the distributive trades; this was particularly the case in the durable and semi-durable goods segments, but also in services related to leisure and tourism, which was also fuelled by the higher number of foreign tourists. Construction activity remained modest last year, which was the result of reduced government investment. Amid a general improvement in economic conditions and a rebound in the real estate market, the construction of residential buildings was the only segment to have strengthened. The pick-up of activity in most private sector activities caused the number of employed persons and their average earnings to rise. Owing to the relaxation of restrictions on recruitment, the number of employed persons was also up in public services, where public servants’ earnings increased primarily as a result of promotions and the return of the pay scale. Stronger hiring and a reduced outflow into unemployment led to a further decline in the number of unemployed. At the end of the year, unemployment totalled 99,615, which is 11.9% less than in the same period of 2015. With confidence indicators at the end of 2016 at their highest levels since the beginning of the crisis, the short-term prospects for economic activity and employment remain positive. The higher consumer prices (0.5%) in 2016 reflected supply-side factors and, to an extent, a further rise in demand. The main supply-side factor was an increase in commodity prices. Energy prices, the main factor behind the decline in the total price level in 2015, maintained their year-on-year level at the end of 2016 amid the rising oil price on the global markets. The growth in commodity prices also contributed to further rises in food prices (unprocessed food in particular). The growth in the price of services continued to strengthen amid the further rebound in demand. Higher prices were recorded, in particular, for services related to leisure activities. However, this additional demand has not yet been reflected in the prices of durable and semi-durable goods, which remained lower year on year. Despite the economic growth achieved, bank loan financing has remained modest; the maturity structure of the banks’ liabilities has deteriorated further. Notwithstanding the improvement in recent years, the banks’ lending conditions remain less favourable than in the rest of the euro area, which is reflected in enterprises seeking alternative sources of funding. The structure of bank liabilities continues to change in favour of non-banking sector deposits. The banks have also reduced their foreign liabilities again, to just above one-tenth of their total assets (compared to almost 40% before the crisis). With increases recorded mostly for overnight deposits (held by enterprises and households), the maturity structure of bank liabilities has continued to deteriorate. The improvement in the general government balance in 2016 was primarily due to the favourable labour market situation and the contraction in government investment. The general government deficit on a cash basis halved year on year in the first ten months of 2016. Revenues were up year on year, particularly those related to the improvement in labour market conditions. The lower expenditures were mainly attributable to the fall in investment upon the transition to the implementation of the new EU financial perspective; other lines of expenditure rose with the partial easing of the austerity measures and higher spending on goods and services. Year-on-year changes, in EUR m Index 2008=100 Seasonally adjusted indicator value, -1,000 -1,500 Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total General government balance Primary general government balance 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 0 -500 80 70 60 50 40 30 140 130 120 110 100 90 3-month moving average -50 -60 -20 -30 -40 20 10 0 -10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 In EUR m Contribution to y-o-y growth, in p.p. Seasonally adjusted indicator value, -1,000 3-month moving average -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 0 0 1 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 -500 Year-on-year growth, in % Jan 17 slowing. Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 -2,000 -1,500 -2,500 -2,000 -3,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 2015 2016 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Excluding the Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by impact of the transfer of claims to the BAMC. IMAD. Source: IMF, EIA; calculations by IMAD. The year-on-year contraction in corporate and NFI loans is Construction Consumers* market conditions and the contraction in government investment. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The improvement in the general government balance is mainly due to the increased revenue arising from favourable labour -1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2 2 Other Services Food Metals Fuels and energy Food Agricultural commodities Non-energy commodities Inflation (%) right axis Industrial commodities Brent oil 3 3 160 150 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Owing to -40 methodological changes, the consumer confidence data for the period from January 2016 onwards are not comparable with previous data. Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Oil and other commodity prices resumed their growth in 2016 Driven by commodity price rises and further growth in the price after a long period. of services, consumer prices rose in Slovenia in 2016. Distributive trades Services Increases in activity across most sectors; the prospects for the With broad-based economic growth, employment has risen beginning of 2017 are favourable. across most private sector activities; enterprises also expect Confidence in the economy and among consumers employment to increase at the start of 2017. Economic sentiment Manufacturing Expectations about future employment Retail trade Service activities Industry Construction current economic trends International environment Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area Industrial pr. in manufacturing Construction output 110 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 2: Unemployment rate in euro area countries Source: Eurostat. Figure 3: Prices of Brent oil and USD/EUR exchange rate Price in EUR (left axis) Price in USD (left axis) 1.4 Brent oil prices reached their highest levels for the year in December 2016; other commodity prices also started to rise. 1.3 The move by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil production influenced 1.1 Chinese demand and the US announcement to increase investment in infrastructure. The euro had dropped to a 12-year low against the US dollar by the end of the year. 1.0 Harmonized unemployment rate, % 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 70 80 90 100 1.2 USD to EUR 1 Long-term average=100, 3-month moving average The prices of other primary commodities also rose, particularly those of metals, which responded to higher in December (74% since the beginning of the year). the average dollar price of oil, which increased by 19% The strengthening of private consumption was attributable to the improvement in lab our market conditions in the euro area. In October 2016 the unemployment rate, which has declined since 2013, was at its lowest point since 2009. In the third quarter, employment increased further and was at its highest level since 2008. improving further, prospects also remained favourable for the beginning of 2017. euro area continued at the beginning of the last quarter of 2016. With the strengthening of private consumption, which had been the main driver of economic growth in the euro area in the first three quarters of 2016, turnover increased the most in retail trade. With the indicators of confidence in the economy and among consumers The relatively favourable economic developments in the Source: ECB, IEA; calculations by IMAD. Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 10 Figure 7: Trade in services – nominal Exports of services Imports of services 600 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 9: Value of construction output Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering works Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Production volume in manufacturing Low-technology industries Medium–low-technology industries Medium–high and high-technology industries Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month moving average In EUR m, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average Jan 11 Predelovalne dejavnosti, skupaj 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan 11 Jan 17 Jan 17 Jan 17 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 Jul 11Jul 11Jan 12Jan 12 Jul 12Jul 12Jan 13Jan 13Jul 13Jul 13Jan 14Jan 14Jul 14Jul 14Jan 15Jan 15Jul 15Jul 15Jan 16Jan 16Jul 16Jul 16 After increasing in the second quarter, the value of construction output remained more or less unchanged in the months that followed. Activity in the first 10 months of 2016 was much lower than one year before, which is mainly attributable to lower government investment. The general improvement in economic conditions and a gradual rebound on the real estate market have boosted not only the construction of flats, but also, in recent months, non-residential buildings. growth remained modest both domestically and abroad. Production volume in manufacturing remained high at the beginning of the last quarter of 2016. In the first 10 months of the year production expanded in all industry groups in terms of technological intensity and was, on average, 7.6% higher than in the same period of 2015. The largest year-on-year increases were recorded for the medium­low-technology metal and rubber industries and the technologically more intensive manufacturing of ICT and electrical equipment, which recorded significantly higher sales, particularly on foreign markets. Production was also up year on year in most low-technology industries (notably the textile and furniture industries), where sales Exports of services increased further; imports remained similar to the third quarter.2 The year-on-year export growth in the first 10 months of 2016 (7.6%) was largely attributable to stronger exports of transport services, higher revenues from construction works abroad and increased spending by foreign tourists. Import growth (3.7%) was based on imports of technical, trade-related business services, transport services and higher resident spending abroad. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 2 According to the balance of payments statistics. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Transactions in existing residential properties (left axis) Transactions in new residential properties (left axis) Prices of existing residential properties (right axis) Prices of new residential properties (right axis) With the continuation of relatively high sales, residential property prices increased further in the third quarter and were 5% higher year on year. The prices of existing flats, which account for around two-thirds of total sales, rose the most in Ljubljana. With a larger share of newly built flats sold in high-end residential buildings, the prices of new flats also increased year on year; however, the number of flat sales remained low. The prices of houses were also up year on year – existing houses in particular – the sales of which have been rising for the third consecutive year. 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 Index 2008=100, 4-quarter moving average Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 11: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) Total* Transportation and storage (H) Information and communication activities (J) Professional and technical activities (M) 3-month moving average Administrative and support service activities (N) At the turn of the fourth quarter of 2016, nominal turnover 120 125 continued to grow in most market services. In the 10 115 110 105 100 Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, months of 2016, turnover growth in transportation and computer services mainly stemmed from foreign demand. In segments that are more dependent on domestic investment demand (especially architectural and technical services), turnover remained low. In the 10 95 months to October 2016, turnover was up year on year in 90 most market services. 85 80 75 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 With labour market conditions improving further, consumer confidence continued to improve at the end of the year, Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * including accommodation and food service activities. Figure 12: Selected indicators of household consumption Real net wage bill Real turnover in the sale of non-food products Nominal turnover in accommod. and food service activities Real turnover in the sale of motor vehicles (right axis) 115 150 which was reflected in the further growth in household consumption. Purchases of durable goods (passenger cars3 and home furnishings), which have been rebounding for quite some time, continued to grow, as did spending on semi-durable goods4 and services, which started to strengthen more notably in 2016. Among the latter, spending on leisure-related services at home and abroad rose the most notably.5 110 140 105 130 100 120 Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100,3-month moving average Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month moving average 3 In the sale of motor vehicles, the year-on-year growth in the sales of new passenger cars to natural persons and new goods motor vehicles and goods trailing vehicles to legal persons continued at the end of 2016; according to our estimates, exports of second-hand vehicles also increased further. The sales of passenger cars to legal persons were down 110 100 90 year on year in 2016 after three years of growth. 4 Computer and telecommunication equipment, clothing, footwear, and 80 products for personal care. 5 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities, affected not only by higher spending of domestic households, but also a record number of foreign tourist arrivals, rose more than one-tenth in the first ten months of Jan 11Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16Jul 16 Jan 17 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2016. Household expenditure on private trips abroad was also up by 6.4%. Economic sentiment Manufacturing Retail trade Service activities Construction Consumers* Economic sentiment improved further at the end of 2016. Taking the year as a whole, the levels of consumer confidence and business confidence in all sectors were the highest since the beginning of the crisis. Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14Jan 15Jul 15Jan 16Jul 16Jan 17 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Owing to methodological changes, the data from January 2016 onwards can not be compared with previous data. Labour market January - October 2016 January - October 2015 With GDP growth becoming broader-based, the number of employed persons6 increased more in the first 10 months of 2016 than in the same period of 2015. Employment growth was higher year on year in most private sector activities. In employment activities, the number of employed persons rose less than it had one year before, which indicates more frequent direct hiring by companies in other sectors. Companies’ expectations about future employment improved further and were at their highest level since the onset of the crisis at the end of the year. With the relaxation of hiring restrictions, employment growth in public service activities was up year on year in the health sector, public administration and primary education. Source: SURS. Note: * Activities A, B, D, E, R-T. Figure 15: Employed according to SRE and registered unemployed Employed according to SRE (left axis) Registered unemployed (right axis) 260 With increased hiring, registered unemployment declined Number of registered unemployed, in '000, Jan 17 seasonally adjusted 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 further in 2016 (by 8.5%). The number of registered unemployed was close to the level seen during the years of stable economic growth. The outflow into employment was the largest since the beginning of the crisis. The inflow into unemployment declined further, particularly the inflow that was due to the termination of fixed-term employment contracts. There were also fewer first-time jobseekers, which in our view was also partly due to slightly fewer young people finishing school and the improved job prospects when leaving school to enter the labour market. At the end of 2016 a total of 99,615 persons were registered as unemployed, 11.9% fewer than at the end of 2015. The growth of average gross earnings in the first 10 months of 2016 was the highest in five years, but still significantly weaker than before the crisis. In the private sector, growth is related to the strengthening of economic activity; in the public sector, this is mainly attributable to the promotions of public servants and the return of the pay scale. Earnings in public corporations remained close to the high levels seen in previous years. Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Source: SURS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Figure 16: Average gross earnings per employee Gross earnings per employee Private sector Public sector – general government Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 6 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons, with the exception of Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. farmers. Prices Other Services Fuels and energy Inflation, % (right axis) Food Consumer prices were higher year on year at the end of 3 2016 (0.5%), largely as a result of increases in the prices of commodities and services. The fall in energy prices, the main reason for the price decline in 2015, began to decelerate in the second half of the year. At year end, energy prices were similar to those recorded one year earlier. Higher commodity prices contributed to rises in food prices (especially unprocessed food). Price growth in services strengthened and was broader-based, in contrast to previous years when it was mainly affected by one-off factors.7 With a further rebound in private 2 1 0 Year-on-year growth, in % consumption and more foreign tourist arrivals, higher prices were recorded, particularly for leisure-related services. The prices of durable and semi-durable goods -1 remained down year on year. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 4: Consumer price growth, in % 2015 XII16/XI16 XII16/XII15 Total -0.5 -0.5 0.5 Food 1.5 0.4 1.6 Fuels and energy -6.7 -0.7 -0.2 Services 0.7 0.1 1.6 Other1 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 Total excluding food and energy 0.3 -0.7 0.4 Core inflation – trimmean2 0.0 -0.2 0.4 Administered prices3 -9.8 -1.0 0.6 Tax impact – contribution in percentage points -0.2 0.0 0.0 Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. 3 The calculation includes prices formulated on the basis of price mechanisms according to the Price Control Act, and prices under direct government control (oil derivatives, railway transport, school books, tolls). Figure 18: Industrial producer prices and import prices PPI (domestic) PPI (foreign) Import prices 110 108 The year-on-year decline in industrial producer prices is slowing; in November the prices of imported goods were Index 2010=100 106 104 102 100 higher year on year. With rising demand, the higher commodity prices on global markets gradually pass through into import prices and domestic industrial producer prices. Domestic producer prices are hovering at roughly the same levels on the domestic market, whereas they have been rising since the middle of the year on markets abroad. Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14Jan 15Jul 15Jan 16Jul 16 Jan 17 Source: SURS. 7 Fiscal consolidation measures, which had the greatest effect on service price movements in 2012–2014. Real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP Nominal effective exchange rate Relative HICP Index 2007=100, 3-month moving average 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 In 2016 the price competitiveness of Slovenia’s economy remained close to the favourable levels of the preceding year. The smaller year-on-year loss of competitiveness in the first eleven months of 2016 than for most other euro area countries was due to the appreciation of the euro, which had a relatively minor impact on Slovenia owing to the geographic structure of its trade.8 Moreover, the decline in relative9 consumer prices was still one of the largest in the euro area. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. *A rise in the value indicates a loss in price competitiveness and vice versa. 8 This is a result not only of Slovenia’s above-average share of intra-euro area trade and hence its lower susceptibility to the volatility of other currency exchange rates against the euro, but also its weaker trade links with individual trading partners whose currencies have tended to depreciate more this year. 9 Consumer prices in Slovenia in comparison with those of its trading partners. 12-month moving sum, in EUR m 12-month moving sum, in EUR m Balance of payments Merchandise trade Trade in services Primary income Secondary income Current account 5,000 The current account surplus continues to widen. In the first 4,000 -2,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 5: Balance of payments I-X 2016, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-X 15 Current account 28,058.1 25,550.2 2,508.0 1,758.5 Goods 20,730.4 19,246.3 1,484.1 1,336.8 Services 5,390.4 3,423.0 1,967.5 1,709.9 Primary income 1,367.7 1,871.9 -504.3 -848.7 Secondary income 569.7 1,009.0 -439.4 -439.5 Capital account 294.1 497.1 -203.0 314.2 Financial account -326.4 -563.6 -237.2 1,748.9 Direct investment 1,054.3 299.7 -754.7 -997.2 Portfolio investment -883.2 1,452.6 2,335.8 1,871.3 Other investment -435.1 -2,195.2 -1,760.1 881.8 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -2,542.1 -2,542.1 -323.8 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Direct investment Portfolio investment In the first ten months of 2016, financial transactions Financial derivatives Other investment Financial transactions posted a net capital inflow. The Bank of Slovenia 12,000 purchased foreign debt securities in the euro area in 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 Jan 11 Jul 11 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 (PSPP). Owing to smaller returns, the government transferred the deposits from its accounts abroad to the central bank.11 In the private sector, net inflows of direct investment predominated. October’s high statistical error was attributable to the unrecorded payment of liabilities against foreign portfolio investors (EUR 1.5 billion).12 10 Reinvested earnings in 2016 are estimated on the basis of the movements of the companies’ business results over the previous three years and the current payments of profits in 2016. In June 2017 this estimate will be replaced by the figures in the companies’ annual accounts for 2016. accordance with the public sector purchase programme export competitiveness and a relatively slower rebound in domestic consumption. The deficit in primary income was smaller year on year, largely as a result of the lower estimates for the reinvested profits of foreign investors10 and lower interest payments on external debt. In the 12 months to October, the current account surplus totalled 6.9% of GDP. ten months of 2016 it was up year on year, primarily owing to a larger surplus in merchandise and services trade, which reflects favourable export trends amid improving -10,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. payment is recorded. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 11 In 2015 the government transferred its assets to bank accounts abroad and received positive returns on term deposits of over 6 months. 12 This instance of non-compliance will be resolved in November when the Financial markets Figure 22: Changes in the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total 1,000 The year-on-year contraction in the volume of loans granted to domestic non-banking sectors continued to Year-on-year change, in EUR m 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. decelerate in November. With new bank lending more or less unchanged, this slowdown is estimated to be largely due to reduced corporate and NFI deleveraging. The banks’ lending conditions in Slovenia are still relatively less favourable than in the euro area as a whole, which is also reflected in enterprises seeking alternative sources of finance. Corporate borrowing abroad is increasing, mostly in the form of short-term loans. The year-on-year repayment of long-term loans eased notably owing to a large monthly inflow in October. Table 6: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 30. XI 15 31. XII 15 30. XI 16 30. XI 16/31. X 16 30. XI 16/30. XI 15 Loans total 21,658.6 21,741.8 20,665.2 0.1 -4.6 Enterprises and NFI 11,076.3 10,966.1 9,860.1 0.2 -11.0 Government 1,725.5 1,919.7 1,729.6 -1.4 0.2 Households 8,856.8 8,855.9 9,075.4 0.4 2.5 Consumer credits 2,046.8 2,032.2 2,126.9 0.7 3.9 Lending for house purchase 5,503.4 5,524.6 5,705.2 0.4 3.7 Other lending 1,306.6 1,299.1 1,243.3 -0.1 -4.8 Bank deposits total 15,741.9 15,879.4 16,723.0 0.3 6.2 Overnight deposits 8,796.3 8,962.9 10,696.8 1.5 21.6 Term deposits 6,945.6 6,916.5 6,026.1 -1.6 -13.2 Government bank deposits, total 2,431.6 1,644.6 955.2 1.3 -60.7 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 5,089.5 5,331.9 5,714.7 1.3 12.3 Figure 23: Changes in the volume of domestic non- Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. banking sector deposits Households Other government Central government Non-financial corporations NFIs Total 2,000 1,500 Year-on-year changes, in EUR m The structure of bank liabilities is changing in favour of non- banking sector deposits. With increases recorded mostly for overnight deposits (by enterprises and households), 1,000 500 the maturity structure of bank liabilities is deteriorating. The banks continue to reduce their liabilities abroad 0 (predominantly those to foreign banks), which account -500 for only just above 10% of their total assets, compared to almost 40% before the crisis. -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance Figure 24: General government balance on a cash flow basis General government balance Primary general government balance 1,000 500 0 The general government deficit on a cash basis halved In EUR m -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Oct 2015 year on year in the first 10 months of 2016. This decline mainly reflects the improved economic conditions, the change in the flow of EU funds13 and the retention of some measures to contain expenditure. The surplus, excluding interest expenditure, tripled year on year. Jan-Oct 2016 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-X 2015 I-X 2016 Category I-X 2015 I-X 2016 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 12,902.2 2.3 13,032.4 1.0 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 13,686.3 -0.5 13,458.7 -1.7 Tax revenues* 6,837.7 5.0 7,059.1 3.2 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures** 2,998.2 -0.3 3,137.0 4.6 Personal income tax 1,604.7 3.2 1,684.7 5.0 Expenditure on goods and services 1,789.1 -0.4 1,840.3 2.9 Corporate income tax 490.8 26.7 511.1 4.1 Interest payments 965.1 -4.4 1,000.0 3.6 Taxes on immovable property 153.8 21.7 173.4 12.7 Reserves 138.1 92.7 139.5 1.0 Value added tax 2,690.6 2.9 2,707.5 0.6 Transfers to individuals and households 5,322.1 0.5 5,426.7 2.0 Excise duties 1,258.1 2.4 1,293.6 2.8 Other current transfers 959.5 -5.9 965.2 0.6 Social security contributions 4,504.1 3.7 4,707.6 4.5 Investment expenditure 1,165.0 -4.4 609.8 -47.7 Non-tax revenues 792.2 -21.4 807.6 1.9 Payments to the EU budget 349.2 2.9 340.1 -2.6 Receipts from the EU budget 675.6 -0.7 339.1 -49.8 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE -784.1 -426.3 Other 92.5 53.7 119.0 28.6 PRIMARY BALANCE 166.0 542.4 Figure 25: Revenue growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions.** Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Tax revenues Social security contributions General government revenue rose year on year in the first Non-tax revenues Receipts from the EU budget Capital and transferred rev., donations TOTAL REVENUE (right axis) 10 months. The fastest growth was recorded for revenues 8 8 related to favourable labour market developments. Contribution to year-on-year growth, in pps Despite a more positive trend, the year-on-year growth of 6 consumption-based revenues remains relatively low. This Year-on-year growth, in % 4 is related not only to the slow recovery in total nominal domestic spending, but also to transitional factors such 2 as the effect of the change in the payment of VAT on imports.14 0 0 -2 -2 13 In the first months of 2016, Slovenia continued to record receipts from the EU budget from the previous EU perspective (but made no payments); -4 at the same time, there has also not yet been any significant expenditure (investment) from the new EU perspective. -6 14 In accordance with the amendment to the Value Added Tax Act, as of 1 -8 July 2016, VAT on imports is no longer paid as an import duty according Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct to the customs declaration, but is instead reported in a VAT return by the 2016 2015 2016 taxable person. This results in a loss of part of revenues, but this loss has Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. already begun to decrease in the last few months. Figure 26: Expenditure growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Wages and other labour costs* Expenditure on goods and services Interest payments Reserves Current transfers Capital expenditure Payments to the EU budget TOTAL EXPENDITURE (growth in %) 8 General government expenditure continues to decline Contribution to year-on-year growth, in pps year on year. The main reason for the decline is lower 6 investment upon the transition to the implementation of the new EU financial perspective. The uninterrupted increase in the long-term trend growth rate in other Year-on-year growth, in % 4 2 expenditures witnessed since early 2016 continued at the beginning of the third quarter, primarily owing to expenditure related to the partial relaxation of austerity measures (the wage bill in the public sector, transfers to individuals and households) and expenditure on goods 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 and services. -6 -6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 2016 2015 2016 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Figure 27: EU budget receipts, Jan–Nov 2016 Adopted budget for 2016 Receipts in 2016 Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Common Agricultural Policy Other The net position of Slovenia’s state budget against the EU budget was negative in the first 11 months of 2016. During this period Slovenia’s EU budget receipts amounted to EUR 341.5 million, while its EU budget payments totalled EUR 33 million more. The bulk of the funds received were from the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy. The majority of the resources from the Cohesion Fund and Structural Funds were paid into the state budget in the first half of the year from the previous financial perspective. Under the new financial perspective, EUR 85 million had been disbursed from the state budget to beneficiaries by the end of November. statistical appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Autumn forecast 2016 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 36,003 35,917 37,332 38,570 40,004 41,416 42,885 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,504 17,439 18,107 18,693 19,376 20,056 20,770 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,500 21,500 22,600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 82 81 80 82 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 10.2 9.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.8 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 1.5 1.5 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.4 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 5.9 5.8 5.1 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.4 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 2.1 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.9 5.1 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.9 3.8 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.2 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.3 2.2 2.8 4.3 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 1,732 2,325 1,998 2,700 2,326 2,272 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 4.8 6.2 5.2 6.7 5.6 5.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 44,723 44,535* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.1 116.0 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.116 1.118 1.118 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.0 2.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.8 55.0 54.0 52.1 51.3 51.3 51.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.7 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 3.2 1.4 1.0 -4.0 6.0 5.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 20.0 19.6 19.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; *End October 2016. PRODUCTION 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -0.9 2.2 5.6 3.1 2.6 6.7 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.9 7.8 5.8 1.5 3.5 4.0 7.5 B Mining and quarrying 1.3 -3.8 0.4 -9.6 -28.1 0.4 -14.4 -1.9 23.3 8.6 -7.6 10.2 -24.1 -52.5 -15.8 -5.2 C Manufacturing -1.5 4.3 6.0 5.1 5.6 6.8 5.8 6.3 5.3 6.1 9.5 7.0 3.8 8.3 4.1 7.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 3.9 -14.2 2.5 -11.5 -16.1 5.8 2.4 -0.5 2.2 -6.6 -5.9 -6.5 -13.7 -18.1 4.4 9.2 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -2.5 19.5 -8.1 19.8 -3.3 0.3 -8.9 -12.5 -8.3 -31.3 -21.4 -12.7 -10.5 4.6 -2.7 6.0 Buildings -20.4 3.8 -4.0 8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -1.1 -5.6 -4.2 -6.6 -11.6 5.7 -12.4 7.0 -0.3 -6.5 Civil engineering 6.3 26.5 -9.8 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -11.5 -15.2 -10.0 -39.9 -24.9 -19.3 -8.6 4.4 -4.2 11.8 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -0.7 3.7 5.4 5.4 2.2 3.7 4.2 5.0 8.4 5.0 4.2 4.1 0.6 3.2 0.7 6.0 Transportation and storage -0.1 6.2 3.2 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 5.2 3.8 4.4 3.7 2.4 8.9 -2.0 5.7 Information and communication activities 0.4 1.1 4.6 0.6 -0.5 1.4 1.7 4.5 10.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities -2.1 -1.8 3.5 6.6 -5.7 3.5 -0.4 2.6 7.7 0.8 0.9 -1.8 -9.0 -7.1 2.8 5.8 Administrative and support service activities 3.7 2.5 11.6 1.8 10.1 14.2 15.5 9.7 8.0 12.1 6.6 9.2 9.6 12.0 13.4 12.8 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -0.9 2.4 5.7 5.8 2.6 4.9 6.8 4.5 6.6 9.0 9.0 8.6 0.7 4.2 2.0 6.4 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 0.0 1.0 2.3 -0.7 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.8 -1.3 -0.3 -1.3 2.9 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 4.7 6.9 14.0 13.3 8.9 12.0 15.9 12.6 15.2 23.0 24.1 18.9 4.0 13.9 7.7 12.3 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -0.2 3.7 1.4 6.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.6 2.9 0.2 1.0 -0.4 0.1 -1.4 -6.8 3.4 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 0.3 -0.5 7.2 -3.4 3.9 6.8 7.0 9.1 3.3 9.6 0.9 9.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 12.4 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -3.4 -3.5 6.3 -7.7 1.6 6.8 4.9 8.7 3.4 1.3 1.0 4.6 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 9.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.8 1.4 7.7 -1.4 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.3 3.2 17.4 0.8 10.9 -0.7 13.9 4.0 15.7 Accommodation and food service activities -1.3 0.2 7.4 -1.7 -1.1 5.0 6.6 8.5 9.3 9.7 8.1 13.4 -2.0 -1.9 6.0 5.8 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.4 506.9 472.9 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.3 123.6 135.5 104.6 110.1 118.2 40.9 49.7 34.1 32.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -13.3 -2.3 5.2 -0.1 1.3 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9 3.7 4.6 5.9 0.6 1.5 3.5 4.3 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 2 6 3 3 7 5 6 6 4 6 5 2 4 5 6 - in construction -22 -11 -14 -10 -12 -10 -14 -17 -15 -17 -14 -7 -13 -12 -12 -10 - in services -12 5 16 7 11 15 16 16 18 17 19 18 12 11 12 16 - in retail trade 2 9 15 10 17 17 16 14 14 24 13 24 18 14 23 19 Consumer confidence indicator -33 -22 -11 -17 -17 -15 -10 -8 -12 -18 -17 -12 -20 -18 -14 -17 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2015 2016 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8.4 0.9 6.1 8.4 2.6 8.4 6.2 3.5 8.4 3.6 3.4 8.1 3.4 7.8 9.0 6.6 2.1 9.3 6.4 1.8 - - 29.3 -36.6 -0.8 6.8 11.4 9.3 -21.1 -10.8 27.4 77.5 9.5 7.0 9.3 -8.1 -5.9 -8.9 -24.1 9.8 50.0 21.6 - - 8.7 1.6 6.8 9.0 3.1 9.0 7.3 4.0 8.6 3.1 4.3 9.8 4.5 9.8 10.8 8.0 3.6 11.2 7.0 2.6 - - 4.1 2.1 0.6 4.7 -3.0 1.8 -0.1 2.6 3.6 0.7 -5.8 -6.0 -8.1 -7.4 -5.0 -5.3 -8.1 -6.1 -5.3 -7.4 - - -1.5 -6.9 -8.9 -10.5 -12.8 -13.8 -10.7 -11.6 7.0 -22.2 -25.9 -29.7 -36.0 -27.4 -19.5 -17.9 -15.8 -14.9 -7.4 -12.5 - - -8.2 -5.4 1.0 0.9 -2.9 -11.3 -1.7 -7.0 2.6 -8.1 -9.4 -2.8 -7.5 -12.3 -13.4 -9.4 6.6 1.3 9.4 14.1 - - 0.8 -7.5 -12.2 -14.3 -16.5 -15.1 -14.1 -13.2 8.5 -28.3 -32.2 -39.3 -45.1 -32.5 -21.7 -21.0 -23.7 -20.9 -13.5 -21.3 - - 4.4 2.0 4.1 6.3 4.6 5.7 4.7 6.4 12.3 7.0 4.7 6.5 3.9 4.0 4.6 4.2 -0.2 5.7 6.7 1.3 - - 3.1 0.8 2.1 6.2 2.4 3.9 0.6 3.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 5.5 2.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 -3.5 5.8 9.0 0.8 2.0 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 4.8 6.6 4.6 15.0 10.9 3.5 3.7 4.7 3.8 3.7 5.2 0.2 2.8 5.9 0.6 2.1 -4.5 2.5 1.0 2.6 2.2 2.9 7.2 13.6 3.1 -0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 2.9 -0.3 -5.3 3.5 -3.0 -5.7 16.2 12.4 13.5 20.2 8.7 9.9 10.5 9.7 10.8 3.6 11.4 13.5 11.6 8.1 8.4 3.7 8.3 10.2 9.1 8.6 - - 6.4 2.7 8.1 9.8 3.5 4.9 5.1 3.8 7.8 8.3 6.0 13.3 7.9 8.5 10.8 7.8 5.1 13.7 7.7 10.7 - - 0.7 -0.9 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 1.5 4.1 1.1 5.4 2.0 7.5 - - 15.4 8.9 17.6 21.4 9.7 15.9 13.1 9.4 19.9 16.8 15.7 33.0 21.1 25.4 30.6 17.1 12.2 27.7 18.6 17.2 - - 4.4 -2.2 1.8 5.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 -2.1 5.6 5.9 -0.2 2.2 -1.1 -1.9 2.9 1.9 -5.9 5.2 0.4 3.2 - - 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 10.9 8.7 7.0 1.1 0.6 8.8 9.3 7.0 12.8 -0.4 2.5 0.4 8.1 6.9 14.6 13.7 - - 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 8.3 10.2 6.4 0.9 5.0 5.1 6.8 2.7 -5.0 8.5 -0.5 -3.1 2.3 1.5 15.3 -5.9 - - 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 12.1 8.1 7.3 1.2 -3.0 11.7 11.0 12.5 28.8 -5.7 3.9 2.3 10.9 9.2 14.3 26.9 - - 3.4 2.2 9.0 8.2 10.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 8.7 13.0 7.8 12.6 9.1 8.9 6.5 9.1 13.3 10.7 17.0 14.3 - - 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.2 43.3 36.2 44.2 49.0 40.3 46.2 33.7 34.2 36.7 36.0 37.3 36.8 39.1 36.3 42.9 46.3 - - 5.6 4.7 5.2 5.0 3.5 6.9 5.8 5.7 5.3 6.6 3.9 3.5 3.7 5.9 3.5 4.3 5.2 6.5 6.1 7.1 8.0 8.5 9 4 6 5 6 8 5 6 6 7 4 5 4 8.0 5 5 4 7 3 6 7 7 -8 -14 -14 -13 -15 -15 -20 -15 -14 -15 -16 -15 -19 -15.0 -15 -13 -12 -8 -2 -3 -2 1 16 17 16 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 16 17 19 22.0 17 18 19 17 19 21 22 21 9 24 19 5 5 15 23 14 15 12 28 23 21 10.0 13 17 19 24 30 11 19 19 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 -6 -11 -14 -10 -16 -19 -19 -17.0 -18 -16 -13 -12 -11 -11 -10 -9 LABOUR MARKET 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 913.4 917.9 917.4 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 914.5 917.8 917.8 919.7 917.7 922.2 919.4 918.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 793.6 797.8 804.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 807.1 808.5 803.0 817.2 820.3 806.8 800.0 794.3 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.2 35.4 29.9 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 29.4 26.9 23.9 23.8 22.1 35.1 35.1 32.6 In industry, construction 252.2 252.4 255.2 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 257.3 257.9 254.7 260.7 262.5 255.5 250.4 249.1 Of which: in manufacturing 177.7 178.3 181.0 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 181.6 183.6 184.1 186.2 187.3 179.6 178.6 178.5 in construction 54.3 54.0 54.3 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.7 54.5 50.9 54.6 55.4 55.8 51.9 50.9 In services 503.2 510.0 519.6 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 520.4 523.7 524.4 532.7 535.7 516.2 514.5 512.6 Of which: in public administration 49.1 48.8 48.1 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.4 48.6 48.5 48.3 48.0 in education, health-services, social work 121.0 122.2 124.0 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 123.3 125.5 125.9 127.6 127.3 123.3 123.1 122.6 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 698.7 703.0 713.1 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 715.9 719.3 716.2 730.2 734.6 711.2 704.4 701.0 In enterprises and organisations 647.6 652.6 662.3 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 664.6 668.6 667.5 679.6 683.6 659.0 654.0 651.8 By those self-employed 51.1 50.5 50.8 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.4 50.6 48.7 50.7 51.0 52.2 50.4 49.1 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 94.8 91.6 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 91.1 89.2 86.9 87.0 85.8 95.6 95.5 93.3 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 119.8 120.1 112.7 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 107.4 109.3 114.8 102.5 97.4 115.4 119.5 124.3 Female 57.4 59.6 57.5 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 55.9 56.2 56.6 52.3 50.6 59.6 59.5 60.9 By age: 15 to 29 28.8 30.4 26.8 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 23.9 26.7 26.1 21.7 20.5 30.1 30.2 30.8 aged over 50 38.9 37.3 36.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 36.2 36.1 38.6 36.8 35.4 35.6 36.7 38.1 Primary education or less 34.2 33.8 32.3 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 30.5 31.2 33.8 30.0 28.2 32.1 34.4 36.1 For more than 1 year 55.4 59.9 59.7 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 59.1 58.4 58.5 56.0 53.5 59.6 60.1 61.5 Those receiving benefits 33.0 26.6 23.7 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 21.4 22.2 28.9 21.3 20.5 22.4 25.5 29.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 13.1 13.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 11.7 11.9 12.5 11.1 10.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 Male 12.5 12.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 10.3 10.7 11.8 10.1 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.6 Female 13.8 14.3 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 12.4 12.0 14.2 14.2 14.6 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 6.0 -4.6 -6.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 -5.5 8.3 -2.9 -10.4 -4.7 -0.5 4.0 4.8 New unemployed first-job seekers 19.1 18.5 15.8 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 2.8 7.4 3.0 2.0 2.7 1.5 1.0 1.3 Redundancies 88.7 83.9 81.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 17.3 23.3 23.8 15.4 16.3 6.2 9.8 12.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 65.1 74.0 71.0 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 16.9 13.3 23.6 20.6 16.1 5.0 4.0 6.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 37.3 33.2 32.6 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 8.6 9.1 6.0 7.2 7.5 3.2 2.7 2.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 30.5 25.1 23.2 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 23.7 23.3 21.6 20.0 18.2 23.4 22.8 22.6 As % of labour force 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 915.0 913.6 914.8 917.9 918.8 916.7 916.2 918.0 919.4 919.3 919.9 919.8 916.9 916.6 919.6 926.6 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 805.5 805.6 810.1 810.4 811.4 803.6 798.0 801.9 809.2 813.9 817.6 820.0 817.8 818.7 824.4 829.3 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.7 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.9 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 256.9 258.4 259.6 259.8 254.3 252.7 254.1 257.4 259.7 260.7 261.7 262.1 262.0 263.5 264.6 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 180.9 181.3 182.5 183.6 184.1 183.0 183.2 184.1 184.9 185.6 186.2 186.8 186.8 187.1 188.1 188.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 56.1 55.7 51.6 49.8 50.2 52.7 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.3 55.2 55.7 56.0 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 519.5 519.4 522.3 523.8 524.8 522.5 521.4 524.0 527.8 530.4 533.2 534.6 533.5 534.6 538.8 541.8 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 48.2 48.3 48.2 47.9 48.3 48.0 47.9 48.1 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 122.8 122.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 125.5 125.0 125.8 126.8 127.4 127.7 127.8 126.5 126.5 128.8 129.7 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 714.3 714.6 718.8 721.2 722.1 714.5 711.3 715.0 722.2 727.0 730.6 733.0 732.2 733.1 738.4 742.2 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 663.0 663.3 667.4 669.7 670.9 665.3 663.2 666.7 672.6 676.6 679.9 682.2 681.4 682.2 687.3 690.7 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.4 51.2 49.2 48.2 48.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 50.8 50.8 50.9 51.2 51.5 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 91.0 91.3 89.3 89.2 89.1 86.7 86.9 87.0 86.9 87.0 87.0 85.6 85.7 86.0 87.1 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 109.6 107.9 104.8 107.5 107.4 113.1 118.2 116.0 110.2 105.5 102.3 99.8 99.1 97.9 95.1 97.3 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.8 56.6 57.9 56.9 54.9 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.4 51.0 49.4 50.6 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.9 26.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 26.4 24.7 22.9 21.5 20.5 20.1 19.6 21.8 21.8 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.3 35.7 35.6 35.6 37.2 39.1 38.9 37.9 37.2 36.8 36.3 36.0 35.6 34.7 34.7 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.4 33.0 34.6 34.3 32.4 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.0 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.9 58.8 58.2 58.2 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 56.1 55.4 54.3 53.6 52.7 52.8 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.6 20.7 25.3 30.2 29.5 26.9 22.1 21.3 20.7 21.2 20.1 20.2 20.1 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.3 10.5 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.4 12.2 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.3 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.7 11.9 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 -1.6 -3.2 2.7 -0.1 5.7 5.1 -2.1 -5.8 -4.8 -3.2 -2.5 -0.7 -1.2 -2.8 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 4.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.5 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 10.3 12.9 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.0 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.7 7.0 5.4 4.8 3.1 6.7 6.9 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 6.8 5.3 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.0 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.3 19.5 19.0 18.2 17.6 17.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 WAGES EUR m 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q3 16 Oct 16 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,556 1,560 1,568 -0.2 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.7 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,506 1,498 1,500 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.0 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,708 1,753 1,780 -2.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.9 2.8 3.7 Industry (B–E) 1,555 1,549 1,541 2.6 3.1 1.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.3 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,381 1,366 1,377 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,679 1,665 1,674 -1.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,315 1,309 1,297 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.5 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 1.6 2.2 -0.8 0.7 B Mining and quarrying 2,003 2,081 2,089 -2.0 5.9 -5.9 10.7 2.0 -8.9 -4.8 -4.8 -4.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 C Manufacturing 1,515 1,508 1,499 2.8 3.3 2.1 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,317 2,315 2,324 3.0 2.6 -1.0 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 1.7 -3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 0.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,496 1,507 1,520 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.7 F Constrution 1,189 1,209 1,202 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.9 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,415 1,404 1,416 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 H Transportation and storage 1,474 1,442 1,454 -0.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,070 1,083 1,082 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 2.0 0.3 1.0 J Information and communication 2,096 2,075 2,081 -1.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.6 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 -0.2 K Financial and insurance activities 2,259 2,245 2,251 0.1 1.2 2.1 -0.2 2.3 3.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.0 -0.1 1.9 L Real estate activities 1,480 1,459 1,468 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,725 1,719 1,728 -2.4 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 N Administrative and support service activities 1,020 1,045 1,048 0.0 2.4 0.4 2.6 1.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 3.8 3.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,789 1,870 1,887 -1.4 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 5.2 6.8 4.3 5.4 P Education 1,648 1,670 1,703 -3.3 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 2.2 2.9 Q Human health and social work activities 1,708 1,748 1,780 -2.0 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.2 3.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,613 1,617 1,676 -3.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.4 1.7 S Other service activities 1,346 1,318 1,319 -0.4 -1.1 -2.2 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 2.8 2.1 1.5 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 3.3 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 -1.0 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.1 4.4 4.8 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 4.8 0.5 -0.2 4.4 2.5 0.2 2.7 1.9 -1.8 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 -0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 0.6 -0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 8.5 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.5 -0.9 1.3 -2.7 -0.2 2.7 -0.3 0.2 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 1.8 -9.6 -6.6 -4.2 -5.4 -5.1 -1.5 1.4 3.4 -3.9 -0.4 9.2 -6.6 10.1 4.9 4.9 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 4.7 2.4 0.5 2.9 1.6 -1.1 3.8 1.8 0.2 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 5.7 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 12.1 -4.5 -0.7 3.4 4.3 -2.4 1.7 6.5 -7.1 5.9 1.8 3.5 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 3.1 1.2 1.0 2.1 4.3 0.1 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.3 3.7 2.6 -2.7 5.6 2.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 3.3 1.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.1 -0.4 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.9 1.3 1.2 4.2 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.6 -0.1 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.5 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.0 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.5 -0.6 -1.9 1.8 -0.5 0.2 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 -2.9 3.0 3.0 -2.4 5.8 2.9 1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.6 3.6 1.4 -1.2 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 2.3 -0.7 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 3.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.8 4.1 9.7 7.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 3.6 4.0 4.9 4.8 6.6 5.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.1 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.1 3.6 4.9 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 0.4 1.0 -0.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 1.1 1.3 2.4 0.2 2.6 4.1 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -0.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.9 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 3.6 -0.3 0.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.0 3.6 1.9 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 Clothing and footwear 0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.1 0.1 -1.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 Furnishings, household equipment -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 Medical, pharmaceutical products -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 Transport 0.3 0.2 -5.1 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 -5.3 -6.3 -5.4 -4.8 -3.1 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 Communications -1.2 -1.9 1.1 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.7 4.3 4.0 5.2 2.6 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 Recreation and culture 0.1 0.8 1.0 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.3 -1.6 -2.0 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 Education 2.6 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 Catering services 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 1.0 HCPI 1.9 0.4 -0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 Domestic market 0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 Non-domestic market -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -2.0 -2.6 -1.2 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 euro area -0.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 non-euro area 0.3 1.1 -0.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.6 0.1 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 Import price indices -0.4 -1.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.2 -1.9 -9.9 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 -10.7 -12.6 -13.2 -10.6 -6.8 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 Oil products 1.7 0.7 -12.4 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -15.1 -13.8 -12.3 -7.9 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 Transport & communications 11.3 11.1 0.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.3 7.3 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices2 -1.5 3.6 1.6 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 Direct control – total 1.2 0.5 -8.5 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 -9.2 -11.1 -11.3 -9.2 -5.9 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal 1.0 0.3 -2.8 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.9 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -0.1 -3.8 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 -3.4 -3.1 -0.7 0.8 0.2 -1.3 -1.4 -2.6 -3.5 Real (deflator ULC) -0.2 -1.8 -4.0 -2.2 -1.5 -4.3 -3.5 -2.4 -2.1 0.7 0.9 USD / EUR 1.3282 1.3288 1.1096 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.1047 1.1119 1.0949 1.1018 1.1293 1.1164 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 1.1350 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 19 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2015 2016 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.3 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 -1.4 -0.9 -2.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 -0.3 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -5.2 -4.5 -5.5 -6.2 -5.2 -5.3 -4 -3.8 -4.5 -0.9 -1 0.1 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 5.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 6 2.3 2.2 3.4 2 1.8 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 -1.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 6.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -1.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -2 -3.4 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 0.1 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.3 -12.9 -13.2 -13.5 -11.0 -11.2 -13.7 -14.5 -11.3 -11.6 -8.8 -8.5 -9.0 -3.0 -2.1 0.5 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 -12.6 -15.8 -16.0 -16.1 -13.2 -11.5 -14.3 -15.6 -12.1 -13.7 -11.0 -10.4 -10.2 -3.2 -2.4 0.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.6 -11.3 -11.5 -11.8 -9.8 -9.6 -11.7 -12.6 -9.7 -10.1 -7.7 -7.4 -7.8 -2.4 -1.5 0.8 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -3.0 -3.5 -2.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0838 1.0779 1.1150 1.1213 1.100 1.1139 1.1221 1.1235 1.0736 1.0877 1.086 1.1093 1.110 1.134 1.131 1.123 1.107 1.121 1.121 1.1026 1.0799 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 1,732 2,325 1,998 642 582 435 462 641 460 709 753 737 297 91 195 164 Goods 708 1,181 1,498 305 312 348 382 424 344 474 461 391 176 42 93 94 Exports 21,692 22,961 24,039 5,716 5,984 5,881 6,063 5,934 6,160 6,058 6,393 6,125 2,164 1,996 1,825 1,817 Imports 20,984 21,780 22,541 5,411 5,672 5,533 5,681 5,510 5,817 5,584 5,932 5,734 1,987 1,953 1,731 1,723 Services 1,732 1,697 2,019 566 386 394 524 609 492 471 557 708 127 126 133 140 Exports 5,317 5,558 6,025 1,596 1,402 1,260 1,511 1,730 1,524 1,375 1,559 1,878 478 419 505 399 Imports 3,586 3,862 4,006 1,030 1,015 866 987 1,121 1,032 904 1,001 1,171 352 292 372 258 Primary income -192 -125 -982 -139 -45 -114 -331 -285 -252 -79 -170 -208 6 -49 -3 -25 Receipts 1,117 1,396 1,632 311 350 437 417 371 407 487 380 375 94 110 145 148 Expenditures 1,309 1,521 2,614 450 395 551 748 656 659 566 550 583 88 159 148 173 Secondary income -516 -428 -537 -89 -71 -193 -113 -107 -124 -158 -96 -153 -12 -30 -29 -45 Receipts 632 709 725 162 188 153 184 173 215 155 171 173 72 53 62 46 Expenditures 1,148 1,137 1,262 251 258 346 296 280 339 312 267 327 85 83 90 91 Capital account 187 157 371 141 -90 46 62 127 136 -38 -112 -63 68 46 -204 28 Financial account 1,042 2,377 1,772 745 476 569 557 478 168 448 204 508 103 156 217 539 Direct investment -47 -584 -1,238 -365 186 -348 -45 -218 -628 -322 -267 -231 31 44 111 1 Assets 24 155 278 -57 20 93 301 23 -140 143 15 21 126 6 -112 63 Liabilities 71 739 1,516 308 -166 441 346 241 488 466 281 251 95 -38 -223 62 Portfolio investment -4,176 -3,968 2,929 76 264 689 1,684 -993 1,549 584 791 524 429 -662 497 193 Financial derivatives 32 -3 28 2 7 22 5 -9 10 -7 -4 31 10 -4 2 -6 Other investment 5,227 6,843 166 1,106 22 226 -1,110 1,746 -697 182 -277 234 -354 742 -366 326 Assets 632 4,815 -672 374 671 434 -1,478 1,225 -853 92 -654 -1,105 -245 567 349 541 Other equity 152 84 10 1 -1 10 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 2 Currency and deposits 564 5,037 -545 469 1,089 90 -1,272 1,273 -636 -294 -593 -1,029 -369 690 768 462 Loans 1 -299 -408 -98 -75 -80 -224 -27 -78 10 -68 -41 1 -32 -44 -8 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -10 8 -8 -4 -2 12 -3 -15 -2 7 2 0 -1 -1 -1 4 Trade credit and advances 19 -16 -4 -51 -252 341 27 -15 -357 314 119 -72 101 -30 -323 17 Other assets -94 1 283 57 -87 60 -7 8 222 54 -112 37 22 -60 -49 63 Liabilities -4,595 -2,028 -837 -732 649 208 -369 -521 -156 -91 -376 -1,339 109 -175 715 214 Other equity -29 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits -4,169 -831 -400 21 278 -178 -301 -37 116 453 -415 -561 16 -17 278 -89 Loans -269 -1,246 -315 -691 107 378 -82 -376 -235 -491 -114 -563 -52 -70 230 664 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 39 -54 3 -2 -10 -7 4 2 4 10 12 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 Trade credit and advances -182 -144 -101 -46 36 9 3 -122 9 -78 151 -169 87 -31 -21 -365 Other liabilities 16 240 -25 -13 238 5 7 12 -49 15 -12 -46 61 -54 231 7 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 5 89 -113 -74 -3 -20 23 -49 -67 10 -40 -50 -14 38 -27 24 Net errors and omissions -877 -105 -596 -39 -16 88 33 -290 -428 -222 -438 -166 -262 20 225 346 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,163 2,343 2,596 573 629 581 632 630 753 644 690 675 226 202 201 169 Intermediate goods 12,425 12,924 13,355 3,237 3,202 3,280 3,406 3,348 3,322 3,362 3,538 3,362 1,195 1,099 909 1,030 Consumer goods 6,960 7,668 7,989 1,887 2,134 2,003 2,040 1,904 2,042 2,058 2,178 2,054 729 707 698 607 Import of investment goods 2,573 2,774 2,968 635 796 658 713 720 877 722 825 787 267 272 257 193 Intermediate goods 13,635 13,417 13,803 3,366 3,403 3,453 3,541 3,376 3,432 3,344 3,538 3,377 1,200 1,195 1,008 1,092 Consumer goods 5,906 6,389 6,534 1,603 1,657 1,604 1,637 1,592 1,701 1,693 1,756 1,725 593 554 511 494 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 41 230 85 174 203 236 123 282 220 212 27 229 161 319 229 213 311 210 151 376 308 35 219 7 122 253 198 -5 231 183 172 -11 161 142 171 140 119 202 151 8 231 159 1,867 2,196 1,942 1,950 2,172 2,146 1,595 2,193 2,177 2,116 1,867 1,838 2,023 2,197 2,089 2,101 2,203 2,076 1,746 2,303 2,155 1,832 1,977 1,935 1,828 1,919 1,947 1,600 1,962 1,995 1,944 1,878 1,677 1,880 2,026 1,949 1,982 2,001 1,925 1,738 2,071 1,996 102 152 216 163 145 186 236 187 183 150 159 154 116 201 187 183 187 191 264 253 231 395 466 523 486 502 586 603 541 508 471 545 424 442 509 508 503 549 607 659 613 578 293 314 307 323 357 400 367 354 325 321 386 270 325 308 320 320 362 415 395 360 347 6 -95 -97 -60 -174 -103 -75 -106 -119 -67 -66 -65 -13 0 -65 -51 -53 -76 -76 -56 -48 184 105 120 135 162 128 108 135 122 118 167 114 171 202 125 128 127 118 127 130 125 178 200 217 196 335 231 183 241 241 185 234 179 185 202 191 179 180 194 203 186 173 -102 -45 -41 -50 -22 -45 -33 -29 -27 -43 -54 -21 -84 -53 -33 -38 -25 -56 -45 -52 -33 53 54 61 53 70 61 53 59 76 60 78 55 52 47 60 54 57 59 56 59 70 156 100 102 103 92 106 85 89 103 103 132 76 136 100 93 91 83 115 100 111 103 6 12 25 7 29 55 38 33 79 62 -5 -7 -17 -15 -35 -39 -37 -8 -17 -38 10 -19 49 41 163 353 141 15 323 145 471 -448 235 153 60 -39 172 71 428 -94 173 -1,397 -73 -276 -187 -26 169 -50 -76 -91 -387 -9 -232 -236 72 -158 -358 52 40 -28 -203 1 65 59 -29 43 83 175 73 -56 7 67 -8 -199 27 72 44 16 18 -20 124 -119 16 121 132 247 231 110 6 123 20 98 454 1 33 263 0 203 375 -34 -60 152 84 15 56 296 200 1,070 339 275 -1,044 -151 202 491 526 532 373 1,040 -829 477 197 116 321 302 -99 437 20 7 2 0 3 -3 -6 0 0 -3 14 -6 0 -1 8 2 -13 30 1 1 1 -186 85 -800 -162 -148 1,229 271 246 19 1 -718 77 -988 1,093 -137 -81 -59 124 -175 285 -1,899 -213 107 -1,053 -153 -273 1,091 -141 275 170 187 -1,210 -118 -245 455 -976 39 284 -42 -943 -120 -529 3 6 3 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -343 -29 -863 -230 -179 1,093 32 148 111 176 -923 -117 -393 216 -890 131 166 -3 -736 -291 -706 -49 -22 -45 -18 -160 -4 -27 4 -20 -13 -45 -11 -22 43 -31 -38 2 -21 -19 -1 -22 4 4 -1 -1 -1 -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 126 198 -84 65 45 14 -143 114 15 42 -414 71 117 125 -3 5 117 -33 -203 164 140 46 -50 -63 33 22 -8 1 14 65 -18 175 -64 51 67 -52 -59 -2 15 15 7 58 -28 22 -253 9 -125 -138 -412 29 151 185 -492 -195 743 -639 -840 120 343 -165 -768 -405 1,371 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -65 -24 -112 -170 -18 63 13 -114 112 66 -62 8 765 -320 -766 155 197 20 -415 -166 699 -225 -61 3 175 -259 -58 -361 43 -37 167 -365 15 -256 -250 -87 -100 73 -109 -322 -133 385 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 228 146 -168 23 148 -173 -31 81 45 -4 -32 -252 132 43 -2 76 77 -68 -139 38 155 36 -38 23 -20 4 29 -34 18 30 -44 -35 32 98 -115 11 -14 -8 -8 107 -145 131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -76 32 -43 12 54 9 -23 -35 21 -43 -45 27 28 -45 -29 2 -13 -18 -18 -15 0 -65 -193 -69 -19 121 -151 -146 7 -155 197 -470 13 9 -244 -233 -2 -203 226 -228 -164 -1,716 192 220 204 212 216 232 167 231 246 243 264 176 221 247 226 231 233 232 192 251 N/A 1,061 1,189 1,142 1,095 1,169 1,207 935 1,206 1,219 1,160 944 1,060 1,123 1,179 1,176 1,169 1,193 1,114 1,005 1,243 N/A 625 771 615 658 767 696 471 737 701 694 646 602 687 769 692 699 787 722 534 798 N/A 210 255 240 232 241 248 210 262 271 283 322 206 237 278 277 262 286 301 223 264 N/A 1,136 1,224 1,231 1,133 1,177 1,200 976 1,201 1,205 1,161 1,067 1,043 1,118 1,183 1,139 1,211 1,188 1,139 1,004 1,235 N/A 533 577 537 527 573 568 459 565 590 565 546 483 582 627 595 575 586 546 548 631 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 233 263 2,327 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 Central government (S. 1311) 6,563 7,240 7,112 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 581 685 622 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,917 8,762 8,856 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 14,902 11,729 10,502 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 1,763 1,485 1,432 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,020 3,684 3,206 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 29,620 25,155 23,816 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 In foreign currency 1,097 950 824 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 983 957 Securities, total 7,026 7,469 7,059 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,051 25,843 25,885 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 Overnight 8,558 10,157 12,717 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 With agreed maturity – short-term 6,689 5,955 4,481 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 With agreed maturity – long-term 11,569 9,267 8,196 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 235 464 491 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 Deposits in foreign currency, total 487 510 655 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 Overnight 324 354 508 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 With agreed maturity – short-term 91 84 80 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 With agreed maturity – long-term 72 72 67 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.86 0.98 0.37 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.40 5.06 3.54 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 3.86 4.25 2.46 1.53 5.05 2.82 .. 4.66 3.07 4.50 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.221 0.210 -0.019 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.005 6-month rates 0.336 0.309 0.054 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.177 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.073 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.020 0.012 -0.755 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 6-month rates 0.080 0.066 -0.688 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2015 2016 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 1699 1,942 2,175 2,327 2,539 2,759 2,987 3,144 3,378 3,631 3,861 4,012 4,219 4,390 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 7,301 7,380 7,387 7,112 7,212 6,957 7,022 6,739 6,853 6,813 6,861 6,850 6,872 6,769 633 635 634 631 624 623 618 622 630 614 601 602 594 591 589 587 571 564 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 8,825 8,873 8,857 8,856 8,815 8,789 8,830 8,863 8,891 8,920 8,892 8,930 8,974 9,041 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 10,941 10,819 10,688 10,502 10,527 10,046 9,904 9,953 9,870 9,771 9,706 9,520 9,455 9,485 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 1,435 1,417 1,411 1,432 1,422 1,328 1,397 1,326 1,332 1,298 1,298 1,283 1,310 1,352 3,365 3,007 3,181 3,442 3,312 3,904 3,713 3,206 3,574 4,030 3,318 3,727 3,572 3,240 3,578 3,625 3,610 3,642 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 24078 24,532 24,226 23,789 24,152 24,088 23,407 23,796 23,552 23,026 23,272 23,149 23,171 23,314 955 937 904 874 845 839 839 823 794 802 778 758 751 759 743 717 714 711 7,574 7,512 7,486 7,494 7,478 7,606 7,568 7,079 7,178 6,795 6,812 6,580 6,735 6,777 6,836 6,848 6,823 6,743 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 25,652 26,330 26,442 25,885 26,315 26,067 25,869 25,689 25,697 25,364 25,725 25,643 25,612 25,811 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 12,130 12,991 13,244 12,717 13,255 13,553 13,405 13,504 13,668 13,819 14,274 14,475 14,365 14,505 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 4,664 4,341 4,325 4,481 4,393 4,251 4,174 3,984 3,942 3,777 3,697 3,507 3,571 3,584 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 8,349 8,410 8,322 8,196 8,148 7,702 7,595 7,572 7,390 7,110 7,077 7,040 7,047 7,084 512 576 587 539 509 588 551 491 519 561 695 629 697 658 677 621 629 638 612 620 616 616 623 618 651 655 674 687 686 658 684 708 683 686 705 680 464 469 468 475 484 478 498 508 529 544 550 529 553 561 540 550 565 549 71 77 73 69 71 71 82 80 79 78 75 69 70 86 82 75 81 72 77 74 75 72 68 69 71 67 66 65 61 60 61 61 61 61 59 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0,02 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 0,20 3.50 3.39 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.39 3.14 3.16 3.06 2.91 2.75 2.71 2.57 2.54 2.62 2.45 2.53 2,68 .. .. 1.90 .. 0.81 1.71 .. 1.00 0.75 .. 1.85 2.58 3.84 2.16 .. .. 1.40 1,60 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 -0.037 -0.054 -0.088 -0.126 -0.146 -0.184 -0.229 -0.249 -0.257 -0.268 -0.295 -0.298 -0.302 -0.309 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.035 0.020 -0.015 -0.040 -0.061 -0.115 -0.134 -0.138 -0.145 -0.162 -0.188 -0.189 -0.199 -0.207 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 -0.729 -0.728 -0.784 -0.792 -0.752 -0.775 -0.760 -0.727 -0.734 -0.763 -0.766 -0.743 -0.741 -0.730 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 -0.672 -0.674 -0.754 -0.737 -0.685 -0.723 -0.698 -0.653 -0.646 -0.676 -0.688 -0.658 -0.647 -0.647 PUBLIC FINANCE 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 3 4 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,728.2 15,492.0 14,401.6 3,686.5 4,268.4 1,248.1 3,972.6 3,864.3 4,241.4 3,685.5 4,108.3 3,883.8 1,248.1 1,440.0 Current revenues 13,637.4 14,377.0 13,425.9 3,501.4 3,770.7 1,138.0 3,756.8 3,596.3 3,935.9 3,511.5 3,948.3 3,802.1 1,138.0 1,327.2 Tax revenues 12,648.4 13,191.6 12,524.8 3,237.5 3,491.3 1,084.9 3,524.1 3,277.4 3,692.4 3,344.3 3,659.7 3,516.4 1,084.9 1,272.4 Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 2,385.9 2,377.0 466.3 637.7 191.5 786.4 504.0 692.5 634.2 811.4 542.4 191.5 323.0 Social security contributions 5,127.2 5,272.5 5,019.4 1,300.7 1,365.3 444.5 1,353.4 1,357.7 1,423.3 1,395.1 1,423.5 1,424.2 444.5 455.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 23.4 20.2 18.1 4.7 5.4 1.5 4.9 4.6 5.6 4.8 5.1 4.8 1.5 1.8 Taxes on property 254.1 244.2 226.8 100.3 96.2 5.8 41.7 85.2 84.1 27.2 46.3 104.5 5.8 9.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,027.4 5,191.2 4,842.3 1,350.5 1,369.7 379.9 1,322.2 1,305.9 1,473.1 1,233.7 1,365.4 1,430.5 379.9 482.1 Taxes on international trade & transactions 77.5 77.7 76.6 18.5 21.1 9.1 21.5 20.2 19.6 22.3 19.8 20.8 9.1 8.0 Other taxes 1.3 -0.2 -35.4 -3.5 -4.1 52.5 -6.0 -0.2 -5.8 27.0 -11.7 -10.8 52.5 -6.5 Non-tax revenues 989.0 1,185.4 901.1 264.0 279.4 53.1 232.7 318.8 243.5 167.2 288.6 285.7 53.1 54.8 Capital revenues 67.1 51.4 93.0 13.1 17.8 3.8 16.2 26.2 43.2 14.7 17.5 21.0 3.8 4.5 Grants 32.7 18.9 11.8 4.3 2.3 1.1 1.7 4.7 3.4 1.3 1.8 5.7 1.1 1.1 Transferred revenues 52.7 4.5 20.5 0.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 19.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 50.0 1.1 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 938.4 1,040.3 850.4 167.2 475.2 104.2 197.5 217.9 259.1 157.3 140.8 4.9 104.2 107.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,286.4 16,751.2 15,533.9 4,009.3 4,498.5 1,465.5 3,980.9 3,974.9 4,710.0 4,223.2 3,882.3 3,985.9 1,465.5 1,335.7 Current expenditures 6,838.4 7,042.1 6,530.5 1,581.3 1,845.9 712.6 1,678.3 1,608.5 1,912.0 1,977.9 1,774.4 1,733.2 712.6 573.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,616.7 3,610.4 3,294.3 883.3 898.9 304.6 903.4 875.0 908.2 924.5 969.8 927.5 304.6 287.1 Expenditures on goods and services 2,238.9 2,232.3 2,156.7 546.9 615.6 200.6 558.9 546.1 703.7 536.4 553.5 570.4 200.6 179.7 Interest payments 840.1 1,097.4 899.8 131.0 292.6 195.2 178.4 148.0 218.9 489.5 181.5 206.1 195.2 97.8 Reserves 142.6 102.1 179.7 20.1 38.9 12.1 37.6 39.5 81.1 27.5 69.6 29.2 12.1 9.0 Current transfers 7,671.3 7,591.9 6,864.0 1,883.4 1,876.1 640.5 1,863.9 1,899.4 1,840.3 1,974.0 1,896.3 1,918.9 640.5 614.0 Subsidies 519.5 467.4 320.7 71.3 110.2 19.9 79.1 47.7 71.0 186.4 78.5 43.1 19.9 10.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,343.1 6,335.0 5,855.0 1,621.1 1,552.3 531.7 1,592.7 1,657.7 1,556.2 1,604.7 1,619.4 1,679.2 531.7 542.4 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 734.2 714.3 638.1 173.2 188.8 84.7 180.5 186.0 190.7 167.5 179.3 186.8 84.7 56.0 Current transfers abroad 74.4 75.2 50.2 17.8 24.7 4.2 11.6 8.1 22.3 15.4 19.2 9.8 4.2 4.6 Capital expenditures 1,031.8 1,444.4 1,456.2 414.6 578.2 67.9 285.2 350.4 709.1 98.6 115.4 213.6 67.9 93.1 Capital transfers 319.5 270.0 284.8 67.9 116.2 10.6 58.7 60.8 137.5 32.9 26.9 23.7 10.6 20.3 Payments to the EU budget 425.5 402.9 398.6 62.2 82.1 33.9 94.8 55.8 111.2 139.9 69.3 96.6 33.9 34.7 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -1,132.3 -322.8 -230.0 -217.4 -8.4 -110.6 -468.6 -537.7 226.1 -102.2 -217.4 104.4 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2015 2016 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1,197.2 1,335.3 1,310.4 1,325.9 1,227.9 1,429.6 1,388.0 1,423.9 1,329.1 1,178.8 1,177.5 1,352.7 1,391.5 1,364.1 1,161.0 1,390.6 1,332.2 1,354.0 1,151.4 1,278.2 1,199.6 1,260.8 1,135.8 1,367.4 1,245.3 1,323.2 1,234.0 1,132.1 1,145.4 1,299.8 1,297.5 1,351.0 1,152.4 1,382.0 1,267.7 1,311.9 1,036.3 1,215.5 1,087.8 1,153.6 1,036.0 1,287.9 1,178.2 1,226.3 1,176.4 1,080.9 1,086.9 1,244.9 1,217.0 1,197.8 1,096.1 1,233.4 1,186.9 1,246.3 187.7 275.7 81.3 210.2 212.5 206.9 228.6 257.0 214.8 212.6 206.8 219.0 289.0 303.4 63.8 270.6 208.1 210.2 449.0 449.4 456.2 451.3 450.3 453.5 457.4 512.4 465.0 460.6 469.4 473.5 478.6 471.4 482.7 461.3 480.3 464.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 11.9 20.9 25.5 29.4 30.3 32.8 30.3 21.0 11.6 9.0 6.6 6.2 12.0 28.1 29.7 35.1 39.7 27.4 375.3 464.8 517.4 443.3 345.1 582.2 454.4 436.5 462.9 393.8 376.9 469.4 502.9 393.0 507.2 472.8 450.4 482.9 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.3 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.2 6.4 5.5 7.8 7.5 6.7 4.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.4 -10.2 3.3 0.0 -9.1 13.7 -4.5 17.8 68.0 -73.4 -6.3 5.5 -15.9 -0.5 53.1 115.1 62.7 111.8 107.3 99.7 79.5 67.1 96.9 57.5 51.2 58.5 54.9 80.5 153.2 56.3 148.6 80.8 65.6 4.2 7.5 11.1 6.7 8.3 9.6 19.9 13.6 4.8 6.0 3.9 6.5 4.7 6.3 7.1 5.6 8.4 5.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.1 41.3 49.1 80.2 57.8 79.9 52.3 122.5 84.3 90.2 40.4 26.8 45.8 88.4 6.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 36.1 1,296.4 1,348.8 1,406.9 1,263.5 1,304.6 1,439.9 1,410.3 1,859.8 1,302.6 1,416.7 1,504.0 1,259.9 1,306.9 1,315.5 1,374.6 1,313.5 1,297.9 1,367.7 546.3 558.3 529.9 525.5 553.1 634.1 574.1 703.9 617.6 641.3 719.0 575.1 592.2 607.1 548.1 597.9 587.2 631.3 290.1 326.2 295.9 287.5 291.5 296.1 296.5 315.6 305.6 308.1 310.9 299.3 305.0 365.4 309.1 313.3 305.1 315.1 165.6 213.6 200.0 172.4 173.7 181.7 190.2 331.9 157.9 178.5 200.0 167.9 198.1 187.5 183.5 205.3 181.5 180.1 73.4 7.1 22.5 52.7 72.8 141.5 72.5 5.0 143.6 145.0 200.9 98.2 77.5 5.7 45.0 69.7 91.4 122.9 17.2 11.4 11.6 12.9 15.0 14.8 14.9 51.4 10.5 9.7 7.3 9.6 11.5 48.5 10.4 9.6 9.2 13.2 617.0 632.9 728.3 584.5 586.6 581.8 601.2 657.3 615.9 654.7 703.4 621.6 642.4 632.3 717.6 602.0 599.2 603.2 29.5 38.7 17.8 14.4 15.5 14.0 15.6 41.4 30.6 54.2 101.7 12.4 46.2 19.9 10.4 11.2 21.5 18.5 520.7 529.6 636.7 510.8 510.1 507.5 517.8 531.0 529.0 534.0 541.6 542.2 535.1 542.2 635.2 528.1 516.0 523.8 62.1 62.4 71.4 58.4 56.2 57.8 54.1 78.8 47.4 63.7 56.4 55.0 56.9 67.4 66.4 62.0 58.4 55.9 4.8 2.2 2.4 0.8 4.8 2.5 13.8 6.1 8.9 2.8 3.7 12.1 4.1 2.9 5.6 0.8 3.4 5.0 83.3 108.8 116.0 111.6 122.8 166.9 153.2 389.0 25.8 34.3 38.5 33.2 37.3 45.0 70.4 75.7 67.5 68.5 14.4 24.1 16.0 16.6 28.2 29.7 40.7 67.1 9.8 14.4 8.7 9.4 5.9 11.6 7.5 6.6 9.6 30.2 35.4 24.8 16.6 25.3 13.8 27.5 41.2 42.5 33.6 71.9 34.4 20.6 29.2 19.5 30.9 31.3 34.3 34.4 -99.2 -13.6 -96.5 62.5 -76.6 -10.4 -22.3 -435.9 26.5 -237.9 -326.4 92.8 84.7 48.6 -213.6 77.0 34.4 -13.7 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – Consumer Price Index, EBA - European Banking Authority, EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European Union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FED – Federal Reserve System, HICP –Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IC – Interest Coverage, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IEA – International Energy Agency, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, MGRT – Ministry of Economic Developement and Technology, MSP – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. MZI – Ministry of Infrastructure, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PDII – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SITC – Standard International Trade Classification, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SMA – Securities Market Agency, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA – Treasury Single Account, UL – Official Gazette , ULC – Unit Labour Costs, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18– Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20– Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29– Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30– Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D– Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E– Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. No. 1, Vol. XXIII, 2017