Slovenian economic mirror No. 8, Vol. XXV, 2019 Slovenian Economic Mirror No. 8 / Vol. XXV / 2019 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Lenart Milan Lah, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Urška Brodar; Lejla Fajic; Marjan Hafner, MSc; Matevž Hribernik, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič; Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD; Janez Kušar, MSc; Jože Markič, PhD; Tina Nenadič, MSc; Jure Povšnar; Denis Rogan, MSc; Ana Vidrih, MSc Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc; Lejla Fajic, Alenka Kajzer, PhD; Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc; Janez Kušar, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation, Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Print: Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf) © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight...........................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends.......................................................................................................................5 International environment.......................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia....................................................................................................8 Labour market............................................................................................................................................13 Prices..............................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments................................................................................................................................16 Financial markets.......................................................................................................................................17 Public finance.............................................................................................................................................18 Statistical appendix...............................................................................................................................19 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 6th December 2019. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 In the spotlight 3 In the spotlight Year-on-year GDP growth in the first three quarters was 2.7%, which is a significant slowdown relative to last year and close to IMAD's autumn forecast for 2019 as a whole (2.8%). Data on GDP growth in the third quarter otherwise show a faster-than-expected moderation of investment growth in particular. Export growth is slowing in line with expectations, while it is encouraging that growth in private consumption is on the rise. If there are no major negative surprises from the international environment, this year's GDP growth will be close to that projected in our Autumn Forecast 2019. Uncertainty in the international environment remains elevated; confidence indicators point to a continuation of weak growth. Increased uncertainty in the euro area, which has persisted for quite some time, is mainly related to the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, protectionist measures, a global slowdown in economic growth and geopolitical tensions. All of this is reflected in confidence indicators, which were last so low in 2012. Given the moderation of activity growth in the first half of the year, international institutions have lowered their forecasts for GDP growth in the euro area for this year and next since the summer. International institutions (the EC, OECD and IMF) project stable economic growth in the euro area for the next two years under the central and thus most likely scenario, and a slight strengthening of global economic growth. Downside risks remain heightened, as we pointed out in our Autumn Forecast 2019. In the first quarter, activity in Slovenia strengthened further in most service activities; construction activity declined after the favourable beginning of the year. Further growth was recorded for turnover in trade and most market services. Production in high-technology industries also strengthened further, while in medium-technology industries growth came to a halt due to the moderation of growth in foreign demand. The decline in economic growth in main trading partners is also reflected in significantly weaker growth in exports of intermediate goods (in addition to export of vehicles). Activity in construction declined gradually after the favourable beginning of the year, which was also partly due to favourable weather conditions. The fall was most pronounced in the construction of non-residential buildings, reflecting deteriorated expectations of the business sector and its investment activity. It is encouraging that the values of the stock of contracts and new contracts, the indicators of future activity in construction, are rising this year. Household consumption is also increasing amid further growth in disposable income. Labour market conditions remain favourable. The number of employed persons is at record highs, while the decline in the number of registered unemployed persons is slowing gradually. In the first three quarters, wage growth exceeded that in the same period last year mainly on account of strong growth in the general government sector. Higher wages accompanied by higher growth in social transfers and new consumer loans, encouraged growth in household consumption to continue in the third quarter. Household spending on non-durable goods and services strengthened in particular, while growth in purchases of durable goods moderated this year, as consumers are less and less optimistic about the outlook for the economy. This is also reflected in further growth in household saving. Year-on-year price growth remained moderate in November. Growth in goods prices eased somewhat further. Solid household consumption is also reflected in higher prices of services year on year, particularly those related to housing and hotels and restaurants. Supplementary health premiums increased as well. The surplus of the consolidated balance of public finances in the first ten months was lower than last year; revenue growth is lagging behind expenditure growth this year. Lower growth in revenue is largely due to lower non-tax revenues and receipts from the EU budget than in the same period of last year. The growth of tax revenues is also somewhat weaker than last year as a consequence of changes in the taxation of holiday allowance and lower growth in domestic consumption. Stronger growth in expenditure is mainly related to the adopted agreements on wage rises and further employment growth in the public sector and measures in the area of social transfers. Higher growth is also recorded for payments into the EU budget. Investment growth declined somewhat more year on year than planned. 4 In the spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 f GDP growth in Slovenia remains higher than in the EU. Slovenia EU-28 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 are-10 ^ -12 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Source: Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * seasonally and working-day adjusted. f Amid favourable labour market conditions, a significant contribution to GDP growth came from household consumption, while investment growth slowed down considerably. I Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation I Exports of goods and services -GDP, real growth in % ■ Government consumption ■ Changes in inventories and val. Imports of goods and services a a Source: SURS. f Lower expectations of the business sector and its investment activity have a negative impact on activity in construction, particularly in the segment of non-residential buildings. -Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings -Civil-engineering works f As expected, growth in exports has moderated this year, particularly of goods exports - vehicle exports are lower, while growth in exports of intermediate goods has eased significantly. ■ Jan-Aug 2018 ■ Jan-Aug 2019 25 ¡j> 20 c jf 15 ä o iS 10 TO ^ 5 c o S 0 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Exports of Vehicles Other Total intermediate goods without oil Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Other and Total also include re-exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products. f Turnover continues to increase in most service activities and trade. Trade (real) -Market services (nominal) a a a a a a o Source: SURS; calculation s by IMAD. Amid uncertain economic conditions, prospects are deteriorating for most activities; consumer confidence is declining too. -Economic sentiment -Retail trade -Construction -Manufacturing -Service activities -Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 International environment Current Economic Trends 7 f Figure 1: Economic growth in the euro area I Private consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation ■ Imports of goods and services -GDP (right axis) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 ^ a a 3 a a a a Source: Eurostat. ■ Government consumption ■ Changes in inventories and val. ■ Exports of goods and services 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Confidence indicators for the euro area economy suggest a continuation of weak growth at the end of the year. Seasonally adjusted, GDP increased 0.2% in the third quarter (1.2% year on year). Economic growth, which continued in all our main trading partners in the euro area, was driven primarily by growth in private consumption. With regard to confidence in the euro area economy, a continuation of weak growth can be expected in the last quarter of the year. According to the ESI and the PMI, the greatest contribution to growth continues to come from services, while confidence in manufacturing remains very low. f Figure 2: Consensus forecasts for 2019 and 2020 for Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area ■ 2019 (Nov 19) ■ 2020 (Nov 19) A2019(Jun 19) *2020 (Jun 19) Euro Area Germany France Italy Austria Moderate euro area growth will continue next year. International institutions (the IMF, EC, OECD and Consensus Economics) have lowered their forecasts for euro area GDP growth for this year and next since the summer. Increased uncertainties globally, together with structural changes, have contributed to a slowdown in manufacturing, which is gradually spilling over to the services sector. Euro area GDP is projected to increase by around 1.0% this year and in the next two. Its growth will continue to be driven by domestic demand. With the continuation of favourable labour market conditions, relatively high consumer confidence and favourable borrowing terms, the bulk of growth will be due to private consumption. A supportive fiscal policy will have a favourable impact on the contribution of government consumption. With increased uncertainty, the contribution of investment will be ever smaller, while the contribution of net exports will be slightly negative due to subdued foreign demand. The risks to the forecast are strongly negative (the intensification of trade and geopolitical tensions, a greater-than-expected slowdown in Chinese economic growth, a hard Brexit and a possibility of a greater moderation of growth in services). f Table 1: Brent oil prices, the USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average change, in %* 2018 X 19 XI 19 XI 19/X 19 XI 18/X 18 I-XI 19/I-XI 18 Brent USD, per barrel 71.01 59.71 63.21 5.9 -2.4 -12.2 Brent EUR, per barrel 60.17 53.70 56.8 5.8 -1.0 -6.8 EUR/USD 1.181 1.105 1.105 0.0 -2.8 -5.5 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.322 -0.413 -0.401 1.2 -8.5 -3.0 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. 8 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Economic developments in Slovenia f Box 1: Real GDP in the third quarter of 2019 In the third quarter of this year, GDP was by 2.3% higher year on year (in total by 2.7% in the first three quarters). Reflecting a global slowdown in economic growth, Slovenia's GDP growth is more moderate than in the exceptional year 2017 and last year, but it was still higher than in the EU as a whole in the first quarter. Growth continued to be driven primarily by domestic consumption. Growth in household consumption (4.3% year on year) strengthened further. It continued to be supported by favourable labour market conditions, but also year-on-year higher payments of social transfers. Growth in final government consumption (1.8%) was also somewhat higher than in the previous quarter, while growth in gross fixed capital formation (1.2%) slowed down markedly. This is largely a consequence of a halt in year-on-year growth in construction investment, which moderated after the strong growth seen in previous quarters. Investment in machinery and equipment was up, but its growth remains lower than in the last three years. Inventories rose considerably in the third quarter, accounting for 0.7 pps of year-on-year GDP growth, after their contribution was strongly negative in the first half of the year (it was revised downward with November's release). Exports did not increase further in the third quarter, while their year-on-year growth declined slightly. The moderation of the year-on-year growth of exports recorded since last year thus continued, which is more clearly indicated by data after November's revision (see Box 2). While the moderation mainly reflects lower growth in foreign demand, it is also partly due to the pressure of rising labour costs on export competitiveness. Amid solid growth in domestic consumption, imports increased (6.7%) more than exports (4.5%) in the third quarter, so that net exports made a negative contribution to GDP growth this time (-1.2 pps). I Figure 3: Year-on-year growth of real GDP, Slovenia and the EU f Figure 4: Expenditure structure of GDP growth, Slovenia 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 ■ Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation ■ Exports of goods and services -GDP, real growth in % ■ Government consumption ■ Changes in inventories and val. ■ Imports of goods and services ..I. ■ mimn KS^fisa 1M II 111111 BS ' rj I LH_K±J_U n ■ h -TT I"I ' I™ ooooooooooooooo Source: Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * seasonally and working-day adjusted. a o Source: SURS. ç -10 -12 -10 f Figure 5: Trade in goods Exports Imports Exports without med. and pharm. products to Switzerland and oil Imports without med. and pharm. products to Switzerland and oil KU ■> ro I ro I 1 TO o> 1 Lower growth in foreign demand is reflected in a greater slowdown in export growth in some main product groups.1 Total growth in goods exports remains high (12.4% year on year) mainly as a consequence of strong trade and distribution activity in medicinal and pharmaceutical products, but also in oil and oil derivatives. Significantly lower growth is recorded for exports of other main manufactured goods, not only vehicles, but also intermediate goods (metal products, parts and accessories for transport equipment), which account for around half of Slovenian exports. This can be attributed to the moderation of growth seen in our main trading partners, particularly Germany, where exports remain roughly the same as last year. Growth in Slovenian imports is still high, driven by similar factors as growth in exports. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Detailed data are until August 2019. According to external trade statistics. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Current Economic Trends 9 f Box 2: Revision of balance of payments data for exports and imports of goods Balance of payments data on exports and imports of goods for this year were revised significantly in November. In line with the principle of change in ownership, external trade flows where no change in ownership occurred (i.e. goods in transit) were excluded from the series of balance of payments data for exports and imports for this year. The values of goods exports and imports are therefore accordingly lower. A smaller part of the value of goods in transit, if processed before being re-exported (inward processing), is recorded as exports of processing services (for example packaging, assembly and labelling). With this change, a large part of the rapidly rising re-exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to Switzerland was excluded from total Slovenian exports. Quarterly data on exports and imports were also changed with the revision, as the balance of payments data also serve as the basis for national accounts statistics used for measuring GDP. The revision was limited to this year, meaning that changes can also be expected at the revision for 2018, which will be released in the first half of next year. The revised balance of payments data on exports and imports of goods point to more moderate growth in 2019 than data before the revision and data from the external trade statistics. The accelerated growth of exports and imports in the first eight months almost halved with the revision, indicating a moderation. The revision lowered total goods exports in this period by almost EUR 1 billion and imports by EUR 1.3 billion. The balance of trade in goods was, consequently, EUR 337 million higher. In exports of services, processing services in the amount of EUR 33 million were thus also taken into account additionally. These data therefore show less favourable export and import dynamics than data according to the external trade statistics released monthly by SURS, which is based on the cross-border principle (and therefore also includes the above-mentioned type of re-exports). In the third quarter, real exports were 2.3% higher than in the previous quarter according to external trade data (12.4% year on year), while after the revision of quarterly national accounts data, their growth was only 0.2% (5.0% year on year). I Figure 6: A comparison of goods exports according to the balance of payments and external trade data, nominal -Balance of payments data -Balance of payments data before the revision -External trade data , -External trade data excluding exports of medicinal ^ and pharmaceutical product to Switzerland 2 3,000 2 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1, f Figure 7: Revision of national accounts data on exports and imports ■ After the revision "Before the revision 15.0 # 12.5 g £ 10.0 Ï 0 ™ 7.5 El 1 5.° o S 2.5 0.0 Source: SURS, BoS; calculations by IMAD. Exports Imports Q1 2019 Source: SURS. Exports Imports Q2 2019 f Figure 8: Trade in services Exports of services -Imports of services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Exports and imports of services maintained their high levels in the third quarter, but particularly growth in exports slowed down notably and was lower than in the same period last year.1 The greatest contributions to the year-on-year slowdown in export growth came from lower growth in exports of transport and travel services,2 which together represent almost half of total services exports. Growth in exports of construction services also eased more notably in the last quarter, while growth in technical, trade-related services and processing services related to distribution activity in the area of medicinal and pharmaceutical products is again strengthening. The growth of exports of services remains similar to that in previous quarters, driven particularly by growth in imports of transport and other administrative and support services. 2 According to the balance of payments statistics. 3 Foreign tourist arrivals in Slovenia (tourists, one-day visitors and transit visitors) 10 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 f Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing -Seasonally adjusted data -3-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Production volume in manufacturing has remained practically unchanged since it increased early in the year. In the third quarter, production volume in high-technology industries increased further. Production in medium-low-technology industries, which are more integrated in global value chains, has mostly been hovering at the level achieved at the beginning of the year. The moderation of foreign demand also had a considerable impact on medium-high-technology industries; in addition to a year-on-year decline in motor vehicle manufacturing, the third quarter also recorded a significant deceleration of growth in the production of machinery and equipment. The greatest fall in production volume since the beginning of the year was recorded in low-technology sectors, especially in some less-productive industries (the textile, leather and furniture industries). fUfUfUfUfUfUfUfUfUfUfO Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. f Figure 10: Activity in construction -Seasonally adjusted data Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The value of construction output dropped further in September. Activity was 8.1% lower year on year. After strong growth early in the year, which was also due to favourable weather conditions, the value of construction output fell in the middle of the year. The decline was the most pronounced in the construction of non-residential buildings, which is related to deteriorated expectations of the business sector and its investment activity. The slowdown in civil-engineering works was more moderate, while activity in the construction of residential buildings increased further, amid significant monthly fluctuations. The indicators of the stock of contracts and new contracts in construction, which fell towards the end of last year, have strengthened again this year and are already higher than last year. They have improved the most in the construction of residential and non-residential buildings, while in civil-engineering works they remained at similar levels as at the beginning of the year. I Figure 11: Turnover in trade -Total -Sale of motor vehicles -Wholesale trade -Retail trade o 220 o IT g 200 O 2 * 180 d C 15 160 fO $ 80 o^rNm^ri^ivor^cOCT aaaaaaaaao Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Turnover in trade increased somewhat in the third quarter. This was mainly a consequence of a more pronounced strengthening of turnover in wholesale trade (which stagnated in the first half of the year) and further turnover growth in retail trade with non-durable nonfood goods. Turnover in durable goods, food products, beverages and tobacco products and from the sale of motor vehicles remained similar to that in the previous quarter. Turnover from the sale of motor fuels has been declining this year after last year's strong growth. Overall, turnover was 6.5% higher year on year in the first nine months. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Current Economic Trends 11 f Figure 12: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -Information and communication activities (J) -Professional and technical activities (M) -Administrative and support service activities (N) -Accom modation and food service activities (I) Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In the third quarter, turnover growth continued in most market services. It accelerated the most in professional and technical activities, especially in architectural and engineering services. Further growth was also recorded in accommodation and food service activities, particularly owing to strong growth in enterprises serving food and beverages. However, strong turnover growth in administrative and support service activities moderated somewhat amid renewed turnover growth in employment services. In the transportation sector as a whole, turnover growth slowed, especially in air transport. Turnover in information and communication activities has stagnated since the beginning of the year. f Figure 13: Selected indicators of household consumption ■ Household consumption -Wage bill, real -Social transfers, real -Consumer confidence indicator (right axis) 120 115 110 105 100 95 a a a a a a a Source: MF, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Growth in household consumption continued in the third quarter amid further growth in disposable income. It arose from further growth in the net wage bill and social transfers (including pensions) and accelerated year-on-year growth in newly granted consumer loans. Households spending on non-durable goods and services4 in particular strengthened year on year, while growth in purchases of durable goods moderated this year after strong growth in the last five years. With increased uncertainty about the future economic situation in the country, which was also reflected in a deterioration of consumer confidence in the last four months, household saving continued to rise. Especially non-durable non-food products, accommodation and food services, sport and cultural services. Purchases of food, beverages and tobacco products were also higher year on year. f Figure 14: Economic sentiment indicator i n "D -Economic sentiment Retail trade -Construction -Manufacturing -Service activities Consumers 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 Economic sentiment deteriorated further in November and is close to the long-term average. In November, confidence deteriorated particularly among consumers, who are the most pessimistic about future economic developments in the economy and retail trade. The latter is a consequence of deteriorated assessments of current sales. Confidence also worsened somewhat in manufacturing because of lower expected production, which is related to lower expected export orders amid the moderation of growth in the euro area. Confidence in construction and service activities remained unchanged. In November, economic sentiment deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month and remained only slightly above the long-term average. It was last so low at the end of 2014. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 125 12 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 f Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2018 IX 19/VIII 19 IX 19/IX 18 I-IX 19/I-IX 18 Merchandise exports, real1 6.9 -0.23 16.7 9.9 Merchandise imports, real1 8.5 3.93 16.1 11.9 Services exports, nominal2 10.3 -1.63 1.0 7.7 Services imports, nominal2 7.0 3.33 10.9 6.8 Industrial production, real 4.9 0.43 1.94 3.24 - manufacturing 5.3 0.33 2.44 3.64 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 19.8 -0.73 -8.1 -12.6 Distributive trades - real turnover 8.1 1.83 4.84 6.64 Market services (without trade) - nominal turnover 8.2 -0.83 3.44 6.14 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 External trade statistics, deflated by IMAD, 2 balance of payments statistics, 3 seasonally adjusted, 4 working-day adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Labour market Current Economic Trends 13 f Figure 15: The number of employed persons and the number of registered unemployed persons Employed according to SRE (left axis) Registered unemployed (right axis) Ï o 820 The growth of employment and the decline in unemployment are easing. The number of employed persons increased by 2.7% year on year in the first nine months, which is somewhat less than in the same period last year (3.2%). It rose the most in construction, transportation and storage, and accommodation and food service activities, i.e. sectors with a high job vacancy rate and a large share of foreign workers. The contribution of the hiring of foreign workers to total employment growth remains high (around 70%). The number of registered unemployed persons continues to decrease, although more slowly than in previous years. At the end of October, it amounted to 72,416, which is 5.0% less than one year before. Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. I Figure 16: Average gross wage per employee -Private sector -Public sector -Total Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Wage growth is higher this year than last year. In the first nine months, it was 4.3% year on year, compared with 3.4% in the same period last year. Higher wage growth mainly reflected higher growth in the general government sector resulting from higher valuation of most positions (agreed at the end of last year), promotions and, to a lesser extent, the increase in the minimum wage. With relatively strong growth in economic activity and a shortage of appropriately skilled workers, wages also continued to rise in the private sector, where wage growth also reflected the increase in the minimum wage early in the year. Wages thus increased the most in activities with the greatest labour shortages and a large share of minimum wage recipients (administrative and support service activities, accommodation and food service activities and trade). f Figure 17: Labour market, the survey on active and inactive population (LFS) Number of em ployed Number of unemployed (right axis) Data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show a moderation of labour market dynamics. In the third quarter of this year, the number of unemployed persons continued to rise, while the number of self-employed persons and unpaid family workers fell slightly. Unemployment rose somewhat both in terms of number and rate, but remained low. aaaaaaaa Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 15 15 10 5 5 0 0 14 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 f Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends Change, in % 2018 IX 19/VIII 19 IX 19/IX 18 I-IX 19/I-IX 18 Persons in formal employment2 3.2 0.11 2.1 2.7 Registered unemployed -11.5 -0.31 -5.3 -5.7 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 0.61 4.9 4.3 private sector 4.0 0.31 4.4 4.0 public sector 3.0 0.51 5.9 5.3 of which general government 2.3 0.51 6.2 6.1 of which public corporations 4.8 0.91 5.0 3.2 2018 IX 18 VIII 19 IX 19 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 8.2 8.21 7.6 7.6 Sources: ESS, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers (SRDAP). Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Current Economic Trends 15 Prices f Figure 18: Year-on-year price growth in Slovenia and in the euro area -Slovenia -Euro area Source: SURS, Eurostat. Year-on-year price growth remained moderate in November. Growth in goods prices slowed somewhat again, largely owing to a stronger year-on-year fall in prices of oil products and stagnation in prices of non-energy industrial goods. Prices of durable goods dropped further. Prices of semi-durable goods were also lower year on year this time. Higher prices of food, in particular fruit, mitigated a larger decline in prices of non-durable goods, which remained roughly unchanged. Growth in prices of services remained slightly above the 3% level, amid favourable labour market conditions and solid household consumption. A significant contribution to growth came from services related to housing and catering. Supplementary health insurance premiums increased as well. f Figure 19: Year-on-year growth in Slovenian industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets Domestic market Foreign market Source: SURS. Total year-on-year growth in Slovenian industrial producer prices remained low in October (0.2%) due to lower prices on foreign markets. Producer prices on foreign markets have been around 1.5% lower year on year on average in recent months; the decline outside the euro area was somewhat smaller. Price growth on the domestic market remains at around 2%. This is still primarily a consequence of strong growth in energy prices (owing to higher prices in the supply of electricity, gas and steam, where year-on-year growth totals around 15%). Among other product groups, above average price growth is also recorded for investment goods and non-durable consumer goods (2.0%). In the latter, this is also a consequence of rising household consumption according to our estimate. # Table 4: Consumer price growth, in % XII 18/XII 17 XI 19-XII 18/XI 18-XII 17 XI19/X19 XI19/XI18 I-XI19/I-XI18 Total 1.4 1.6 0.1 1.4 1.6 Food 0.5 1.4 0.3 2.5 1.5 Fuels and energy 3.8 1.4 -0.7 -2.0 1.2 Services 3.0 3.1 -0.1 3.3 3.1 Other1 -0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 Core inflation - excluding food and energy 1.2 1.7 0.2 1.8 1.7 Core inflation - trimmed mean2 1.5 1.4 0.1 1.1 1.4 Source: SURS. Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2 an approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. 16 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Balance of payments I Figure 20: Components of the current account balance ^■Secondary income Primary income Trade in goods Trade in services -Current account 5,000 ccccccccccc Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. In September, the current account surplus narrowed; in the last 12 months, it was lower year on year (at 5.5 % of estimated GDP). The lower surplus compared with the previous 12-month period was largely due to a lower trade surplus in goods, which is attributable mainly to the easing of growth in the international environment. The lower current account surplus year on year was also a consequence of a higher net outflow of secondary income, which is mainly related to higher VAT- and GNI-based payments into the EU budget. Net outflows of primary income remained similar to those recorded one year earlier. The trade surplus in services was higher, mainly as a result of a higher surplus in transport and construction services and higher net revenues from travel. f Figure 21: Financial transactions of the balance of payments Direct investment Portfolio investment Fi nancial derivatives Other investment -Financial transactions 1 5,000 m cc 3 10,000 E rN "" -1 0,000 ^rNm^ri^ivor^coo^ nnnnnnnnn rorororororororom Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. The net outflow in external financial transactions continues. In the 12 months to September, net outflows of financial assets abroad exceeded net inflows (by EUR 1.8 billion) primarily due to transactions in the segment of other investment. The government and firms were placing deposits in accounts abroad, where interest rates are higher than in the domestic banking system. Firms were deleveraging abroad, commercial banks were increasing long-term lending abroad, while non-residents were withdrawing deposits from Slovenian banks. In direct investment, net inflows of equity predominated. Their increase is related to takeovers in insurance and business sectors. Net inflows of portfolio investment were largely due to investment by foreign portfolio investors in the domestic banking sector. Banks, insurance companies and pension funds continued to buy long-term debt securities in international financial markets. I Table 5: Balance of payments I-IX 2019, in EUR million Balance, I-IX 18, Inflows Outflows Balance EUR million Current account 32,128.1 29,855.7 2,272.4 2,192.4 Goods 24,115.0 23,011.5 1,103.5 1,126.3 Services 6,305.9 4,140.7 2,165.2 1,976.6 Primary income 1,141.5 1,708.1 -566.7 -578.9 Secondary income 565.8 995.4 -429.6 -331.6 Capital account 1,184.4 1,238.5 -54.1 -105.2 Financial account 2,265.7 3,863.8 1,598.1 2,313.7 Direct investment 1,048.7 353.1 -695.6 -715.6 Portfolio investment 241.6 546.5 304.9 1,265.0 Other investment 1,061.9 3,178.6 2,116.7 1,777.8 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -620.2 -620.2 226.4 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts. the term »inflows" means total receipts and the term "outflows" means total expenditures; "balance" is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, "outflows" mean assets, while "inflows" mean liabilities abroad; "balance" is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Financial markets Current Economic Trends 17 t Figure 22: Year-on-year growth rates of loans in the Slovenian banking sector -Consumer loans -Lending for house purchase -Enterprises and NFIs -Total The growth of loans and deposits of domestic nonbanking sectors remained around the achieved levels in October. The volume of loans to non-banking sectors was slightly more than 3% higher year on year. Household borrowing again made a significant contribution to growth. Due to the announced introduction of a binding macroprudential measure at the beginning of November, particularly borrowing in the form of consumer loans strengthened somewhat in October. Growth in corporate and NFI loans remains moderate. Deposits of domestic non-banking sectors are rising twice as fast as loans, with overnight deposits continuing to increase in particular, which is a consequence of low interest rates. The maturity structure of sources of finance thus continues to deteriorate. The liquidity in the banking system is still favourable. Given the solid growth of domestic sources of funding, the banking system's dependence on foreign sources of finance remains low. I Table 6: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. X 18 31. XII 18 31. X 19 31. X 19/30. IX 19 31. X 19/31. X 18 Loans total 22,454.6 22,371.2 23,209.5 0.4 3.4 Enterprises and NFI 10,396.2 10,247.2 10,610.9 0.0 2.1 Government 1,761.9 1,754.1 1,648.5 -1.5 -6.4 Households 10,296.5 10,370.0 10,950.1 1.1 6.3 Consumer credits 2,652.4 2,683.0 2,964.1 1.8 11.8 Lending for house purchase 6,199.7 6,238.7 6,529.5 0.7 5.3 Other lending 1,444.5 1,448.3 1,456.5 1.4 0.8 Bank deposits total 18,766.5 19,117.0 20,177.7 0.0 7.5 Overnight deposits 13,937.3 14,372.6 15,573.4 0.2 11.7 Term deposits 4,829.2 4,744.4 4,604.4 -0.7 -4.7 Government bank deposits, total 720.3 665.6 658.4 4.3 -8.6 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 6,586.4 6,833.3 6,865.1 -0.3 4.2 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions. 18 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Public finance f Figure 23: Revenue, expenditure and balance of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts General government balance ^^ Pri mary balance -Revenues (right axis) -Expenditure (right axis) 2,000 - 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 I-X I-X 2018 2019 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. The surplus of the consolidated balance5 in the first ten months was lower than last year; with regard to the budgetary plans, this is also expected to be the case at the end of the year. Revenue growth was considerably lower in this period, primarily on account of year-on-year lower nontax revenues (these were at a high level last year due to high payments of dividends in October6) and lower receipts from the EU budget (also as a consequence of last year's one-off payments).7 The weaker revenue growth is also due to revenues from taxes, which increased less than last year as a consequence of changes in the taxation of holiday allowance and lower growth in domestic consumption. Expenditure growth already strengthened at the beginning of the year. It is mainly attributable to the adopted agreements on wage rises and further growth in employment, which is the highest in health and education, and measures in the area of transfers to individuals and households. Payments into the EU budget have increased as well. Investment growth declined somewhat more year on year than planned. The estimate of the realisation of the state budget, which is the main part of the consolidated balance, indicates a surplus of EUR 151 million for 2019,8 lower than envisaged in the adopted revised budget (EUR 194 million). It is also expected to be lower than in 2018 (EUR 537 million). 5 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 6 The inflow of NLB dividends in October 2018 in the amount of EUR 270.6 million, including retained profits from previous years. 7 In the same period of last year, EUR 168.3 million was refunded in the state budget under the previous financial perspective (2007-2013). Revenue from the EU budget under the current financial perspective increased by 33.3% year on year in the first ten months, which is also less than envisaged at the adoption of the revised budget for 2019. 8 Made at the preparation of draft state budgets for 2020 and 2021 (Ministry of Finance, 19 September 2019). I Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-X 2018 I-X 2019 EUR m Y-o-y growth. in % EUR m Y-o-y growth. in % REVENUES TOTAL 15,282.0 10.2 15,803.3 3.4 Tax revenues1 7,970.6 6.0 8,388.6 5.2 Personal income tax 1,986.4 11.0 2,054.5 3.4 Corporate income tax 710.3 8.9 851.7 19.9 Taxes on immovable property 196.4 1.8 198.2 0.9 Value added tax 3,085.4 7.2 3,201.9 3.8 Excise duties 1,298.3 -1.6 1,284.5 -1.1 Social security contributions 5,375.5 7.4 5,770.1 7.3 Non-tax revenues 1,190.9 26.3 952.5 -20.0 Receipts from the EU budget 556.6 97.5 518.5 -6.8 Other 188.5 48.7 173.5 -7.9 Category I-X 2018 I-X 2019 EUR m Y-o-y growth. in % EUR m Y-o-y growth. in % EXPENDITURE TOTAL 14,446.6 5.1 15,440.2 6.9 Salaries. wages and other personnel expenditures2 3,438.5 5.4 3,718.7 8.2 Expenditure on goods and services 2,050.5 5.2 2,193.8 7.0 Interest payments 806.3 -10.7 711.3 -11.8 Reserves 111.7 10.1 152.4 36.4 Transfers to individuals and households 5,772.9 4.0 6,119.4 6.0 Other current transfers 1,018.1 2.5 1,088.3 6.9 Investment expenditure 889.3 34.1 988.9 11.2 Payments to the EU budget 359.4 14.1 467.4 30.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE 835.4 363.1 PRIMARY BALANCE 1,631.7 1,065.6 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance. tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions. 2 Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 21 Main indicators 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Autumn forecast 2019 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -1.0 2.8 2.2 3.1 4.8 4.1 2.8 3.0 2.7 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,454 37,634 38,853 40,367 42,987 45,755 48,242 50,910 53,581 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,700 18,253 18,830 19,551 20,809 22,083 23,350 24,641 25,934 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,900 22,700 23,800 24100 25500 27000 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 82 82 82 83 85 87 Rate of registered unemployment 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.7 7.2 6.9 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.3 4.0 3.8 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 0.1 2.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.3 1.5 1.9 Inflation2, year average 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 Inflation2, end of the year 0.7 0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 3.1 6.0 4.7 6.5 10.8 6.6 7.8 5.0 4.8 Exports of goods 3.3 6.3 5.3 6.2 11.0 6.5 8.1 4.9 4.7 Exports of services 2.0 5.0 2.4 7.7 9.9 7.2 6.8 5.6 5.0 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 2.1 4.2 4.3 6.7 10.7 7.7 9.2 5.8 5.5 Imports of goods 2.9 3.8 5.1 7.0 11.1 8.5 9.9 5.8 5.6 Imports of services -2.3 6.1 0.1 4.7 8.6 3.0 5.4 5.7 5.0 Current account balance3, in EUR million 1,204 1,924 1,482 1,942 2,635 2,593 2,348 2,398 2,289 As a per cent share relative to GDP 3.3 5.1 3.8 4.8 6.1 5.7 4.9 4.7 4.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 41,143 46,779 46,148 44,293 43,191 42,100 44,786* As a per cent share relative to GDP 112.9 124.3 118.8 109.7 100.5 92.0 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.107 1.129 1.181 1.123 1.115 1.115 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) -3.9 1.6 2.0 4.4 2.3 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 As a % of GDP 56.1 55.0 54.0 53.9 52.7 52.3 52.4 52.2 51.8 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -2.0 -0.2 2.3 2.5 0.3 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.4 As a % of GDP 19.6 18.9 18.8 19.1 18.4 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 -0.1 -1.2 -3.7 10.4 9.4 6.8 6.8 7.0 As a % of GDP 19.6 19.1 18.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.6 Sources: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast 2019). Notes: 1 Measured in purchasing power standard; 2 Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; * End September 2019. 22 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Production 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % ndustry B+C+D 7.1 7.7 4.9 7.8 9.8 7.8 5.6 3.5 2.5 3.1 4.0 3.7 13.3 9.8 6.0 11.9 B Mining and quarrying 1.7 2.6 -1.0 3.0 -10.6 -16.9 6.6 6.5 0.3 9.0 -1.2 -10.5 -17.8 -3.0 -8.3 -7.2 C Manufacturing 8.2 8.3 5.3 8.4 10.8 8.6 6.0 3.8 2.9 3.4 4.3 4.5 14.4 10.8 6.9 13.7 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -3.4 1.9 1.1 1.3 2.7 4.1 0.7 0.4 -1.0 -0.4 2.9 -2.4 9.1 1.5 -1.9 -0.9 CONSTRUCTION2, real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -17.7 17.7 19.8 8.3 26.0 18.6 17.1 28.8 14.9 23.1 8.6 -5.5 31.1 26.0 20.0 77.2 Buildings 2.4 27.6 16.8 9.4 30.7 25.5 16.5 28.5 2.4 18.7 5.9 -9.2 44.8 30.4 17.7 65.5 Civil engineering -24.8 14.4 21.1 8.3 25.0 13.3 17.8 29.4 20.5 24.1 10.0 -3.7 26.4 23.8 24.9 79.4 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total 5.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 10.1 7.3 8.5 8.8 8.2 7.4 5.3 6.1 11.5 10.3 8.6 11.2 Transportation and storage 3.6 10.8 9.3 10.9 11.4 8.6 10.1 9.6 9.0 8.3 5.8 3.7 15.3 12.4 6.5 13.5 Information and communication activities 3.5 5.8 3.9 4.5 7.2 6.1 1.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.3 8.8 6.5 6.7 5.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.8 3.7 16.1 1.2 7.8 10.9 18.5 16.5 17.3 11.2 2.9 16.1 7.4 3.9 11.6 15.5 Administrative and support service activities 7.7 12.2 7.3 9.2 15.6 8.5 11.2 7.9 2.0 2.5 4.5 5.8 14.7 22.6 10.1 12.7 DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.7 8.5 8.1 8.3 11.7 3.9 7.8 8.3 11.7 10.1 5.2 4.5 8.5 8.7 0.9 5.7 Real turnover in retail trade 4.4 7.4 4.6 4.2 11.9 -0.9 2.5 4.2 11.9 9.1 6.7 4.1 2.7 6.2 -1.6 -1.0 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 21.8 14.1 11.6 15.8 3.3 12.3 15.9 15.8 3.3 9.0 2.7 0.0 21.6 16.1 6.3 14.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 3.5 6.9 9.3 9.2 14.6 4.1 8.8 9.2 14.6 11.2 5.1 6.6 7.7 7.3 0.1 7.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 8.5 12.3 10.5 12.8 8.5 2.4 10.7 11.8 14.4 3.1 4.4 -0.1 6.8 7.7 11.3 6.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 3.3 5.0 -0.1 3.3 6.4 -2.9 3.2 -1.8 2.4 4.4 -3.8 -5.1 15.2 0.3 3.5 11.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 11.5 16.1 15.4 16.6 9.8 6.4 14.0 16.7 21.7 2.2 7.5 1.4 2.9 13.6 16.9 3.2 Accommodation and food service activities 11.0 8.9 7.1 9.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 8.0 6.7 10.1 7.5 7.1 6.5 7.2 5.7 10.8 AGRICULTURE Purchase of agricultural products, n EUR m 465.7 518.7 524.8 135.2 155.0 110.9 122.0 140.9 151.0 118.5 127.0 145.6 57.6 48.4 49.0 37.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 5.5 12.5 11.9 12.1 15.7 14.0 12.9 9.8 10.8 9.9 6.6 5.9 15.5 16.2 15.7 15.8 Confidence indicator in manufacturing 6 10 8 9 13 12 9 4 8 4 0 0 12 14 13 13 in construction -10 12 22 18 18 24 25 25 24 24 21 20 27 29 28 24 in services 19 25 25 24 28 22 25 20 19 17 12 9 23 13 20 22 in retail trade 19 21 14 22 26 18 12 13 14 22 19 20 27 30 21 32 consumer confidence indicator -14 -4 -2 -4 0 0 1 -5 -6 -5 -6 -8 0 -1 1 2 Source: SURS. Opombe: 1 Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 23 2018 2019 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 8.1 4.3 10.0 6.4 1.2 8.1 5.3 -2.1 7.2 2.7 -3.1 5.7 3.5 0.5 11.3 3.5 -2.2 7.8 -1.9 4.6 - - -18.8 -23.6 6.2 6.5 7.1 4.8 15.3 0.3 19.1 -7.0 -15.9 -7.5 13.4 22.1 5.6 -0.7 -8.3 -7.2 -14.9 -9.2 - - 8.7 4.5 10.8 6.9 1.1 8.7 5.6 -2.1 7.7 2.7 -2.5 5.4 4.2 1.0 12.4 3.5 -2.5 8.8 -1.4 5.3 - - 5.8 7.8 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 -2.2 -0.4 3.6 -5.9 10.2 -4.0 -7.5 0.5 3.4 4.7 0.1 -4.8 -2.5 - - 6.6 -2.0 12.7 30.7 9.8 25.8 34.0 26.9 18.5 19.5 4.3 2.9 39.0 29.1 9.7 11.2 5.1 -0.3 -7.8 -8.1 - - 19.7 3.9 13.1 29.3 8.5 27.7 29.6 28.5 7.0 6.4 -7.5 -4.0 44.9 20.7 6.7 5.7 5.3 -15.1 1.5 -12.9 - - -1.0 -5.5 12.5 31.5 11.2 25.1 36.5 26.8 23.6 25.4 9.6 5.8 32.9 32.7 11.0 13.8 5.5 7.2 -11.6 -5.8 - - 5.3 5.7 9.9 8.4 7.3 9.0 10.0 7.3 11.6 7.7 5.7 7.0 10.2 5.3 9.9 4.1 2.2 9.2 4.2 4.8 - - 6.3 6.5 11.8 8.0 10.7 12.3 8.7 7.8 13.8 9.3 3.6 8.6 12.5 4.4 12.8 5.0 0.2 8.5 2.4 0.0 - - 4.7 8.1 2.2 2.6 -1.6 7.0 4.2 1.6 6.1 3.5 4.3 8.2 3.8 2.6 8.2 7.5 1.9 2.3 4.1 3.4 - - 9.5 8.5 23.0 19.4 13.8 11.5 24.1 14.7 22.0 16.7 14.2 8.0 13.4 12.2 8.3 -1.8 2.8 25.2 8.5 15.0 - - 9.6 4.1 8.7 13.6 11.3 8.1 11.4 4.3 4.7 -2.73 3.99 0.85 4.01 2.60 7.05 3.5 3.3 7.5 4.5 5.5 - - 2.5 3.6 8.3 8.9 6.4 10.9 7.6 6.5 16.0 9.2 9.9 10.4 14.3 6.3 11.9 4.2 0.0 7.5 0.6 5.4 - - -2.2 0.3 -0.3 4.8 2.9 3.0 4.3 5.2 15.9 8.9 11.0 9.8 12.9 5.2 14.7 4.7 1.4 7.5 2.9 1.8 - - 12.0 11.1 19.2 16.8 12.0 27.4 18.5 2.3 5.3 3.1 1.4 9.8 13.0 5.3 6.7 5.5 -4.1 0.1 -10.5 10.6 - - 2.3 3.1 10.8 8.8 7.1 11.8 7.0 8.9 20.1 11.8 11.9 11.2 15.9 7.4 12.0 3.3 0.7 10.6 2.5 6.4 - - -0.7 2.0 5.4 20.2 7.6 11.5 10.3 15.4 13.1 17.0 13.9 -2.1 10.7 0.9 8.6 -4.4 8.5 0.9 1.2 -4.0 2.0 - -3.9 -12.2 7.5 0.5 2.2 -3.4 -2.4 2.1 -1.3 5.5 3.8 -8.8 12.7 6.9 -14.4 4.0 -1.6 -7.6 -2.7 -5.2 5.2 - 2.5 13.0 4.5 28.4 9.9 17.1 14.6 20.1 20.8 24.9 20.2 2.0 8.8 -2.7 19.2 -7.2 12.5 3.6 2.3 -3.7 0.6 - 3.7 5.2 6.7 8.5 5.2 6.3 8.4 9.6 5.3 7.9 7.0 5.0 15.8 10.0 7.7 4.4 10.2 6.3 7.3 7.6 - 34.0 39.7 39.6 41.5 40.9 42.9 42.2 55.8 59.3 45.3 46.4 39.8 36.7 42.0 42.9 42.8 41.3 52.3 42.1 51.3 - - 14.2 11.9 13.1 12.2 13.3 10.5 10.6 8.2 11.5 10.0 10.9 12.1 8.9 8.8 6.7 7.7 5.4 6.8 6.0 4.8 4.1 2.4 12 10 9 8 9 5 6 2 10 7 6 7 2 3 0 3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -3 24 23 25 26 24 24 25 25 24 23 26 25 25 23 23 20 20 21 19 20 20 20 22 23 25 25 26 23 21 17 19 23 16 17 17 16 12 12 13 9 9 9 5 6 18 5 12 2 23 11 11 16 18 10 13 27 16 24 13 26 19 18 23 19 18 5 0 -1 1 0 1 -2 -4 -9 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -5 -5 -7 -11 -13 -15 24 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Labour market 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 920.4 934.1 951.2 932.5 942.0 943.1 948.8 949.2 963.9 965.3 967.8 965.6 934.2 941.4 943.4 941.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 817.2 845.5 872.8 849.3 858.5 858.1 872.0 874.0 886.9 885.3 895.5 894.6 853.2 858.4 861.0 856.2 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 23.1 25.0 26.3 25.2 25.2 24.7 27.2 25.2 27.9 25.6 25.4 23.8 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 In industry, construction 260.3 269.1 280.9 271.9 274.8 273.7 279.6 283.0 287.1 287.5 292.7 292.7 273.0 275.2 276.3 272.9 - in manufacturing 186.7 193.9 202.6 195.0 198.0 199.3 201.6 203.2 206.4 207.4 208.5 207.6 195.8 197.6 198.3 198.1 - in construction 53.9 55.7 58.4 57.2 57.2 54.9 58.1 59.8 60.7 60.4 64.2 65.1 57.5 58.0 58.4 55.3 In services 533.8 551.3 565.7 552.3 558.5 559.7 565.2 565.8 571.9 572.2 577.5 578.0 555.0 557.9 559.4 558.2 - in public administration 48.4 48.8 49.0 49.0 49.0 48.8 49.1 49.1 49.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 49.0 48.8 - in education, health-services and social work 127.7 131.6 135.0 130.8 133.5 134.3 135.0 133.9 136.7 137.0 137.8 137.0 132.4 133.2 133.7 133.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 730.5 755.3 780.2 758.9 767.4 767.5 778.9 782.5 792.0 792.7 803.0 803.3 762.5 767.3 769.7 765.1 In enterprises and organisations 680.2 704.3 729.3 707.3 716.2 718.1 727.7 730.9 740.3 741.6 749.7 750.0 710.9 715.5 718.1 715.1 By those self-employed 50.3 51.0 50.9 51.6 51.2 49.4 51.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 53.2 53.4 51.6 51.8 51.6 50.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 86.7 90.2 92.6 90.4 91.2 90.6 93.2 91.5 94.9 92.6 92.6 91.2 90.7 91.1 91.3 91.1 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 103.2 88.6 78.5 83.2 83.5 84.9 76.7 75.3 77.0 80.0 72.2 71.1 81.0 83.0 82.4 85.1 Female 52.4 45.4 39.9 43.7 42.9 42.1 39.3 38.9 39.2 39.6 36.8 36.6 42.3 43.4 42.8 42.5 By age: 15 to 29 22.5 17.5 15.1 15.2 17.1 16.4 14.1 13.7 16.1 15.5 13.1 12.6 14.6 17.3 16.9 17.0 Aged over 50 36.5 34.3 31.5 33.2 32.7 33.8 31.7 30.5 29.9 31.5 29.6 29.0 32.7 32.4 32.4 33.2 Primary education or less 30.2 26.7 24.3 24.6 25.2 26.6 23.7 23.0 24.0 25.8 22.8 22.1 24.3 24.5 24.6 26.4 For more than 1 year 55.1 47.0 40.6 45.2 43.7 42.9 40.8 39.5 39.1 39.2 38.3 37.9 44.3 44.2 43.7 43.3 Those receiving benefits 23.1 21.5 20.0 19.8 20.2 24.4 18.7 18.3 18.5 23.5 17.4 17.9 19.4 19.0 19.2 22.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.2 9.5 8.3 CO 9 9 9.0 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.3 7.5 7.4 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.0 Male 10.2 8.5 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.4 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.7 6.7 6.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 8.3 Female 12.4 10.6 9.2 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.4 8.4 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -13.5 -14.6 -6.5 -3.8 4.1 -3.8 -6.2 -1.2 4.8 -0.7 -1.9 -0.3 -2.9 2.0 -0.6 2.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.2 12.3 11.4 2.3 5.7 2.1 1.6 2.1 5.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.2 4.0 1.0 0.7 Redundancies 75.7 70.0 65.1 15.5 18.6 19.5 13.4 14.9 17.4 6.5 4.1 4.8 5.0 5.6 5.4 7.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 74.9 68.6 61.5 14.3 13.6 20.0 16.4 12.7 12.4 6.2 4.8 3.9 6.4 5.1 4.8 3.7 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.6 28.3 21.6 7.3 6.7 5.4 4.8 5.5 5.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 FIXED TERM WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 19.2 18.0 24.0 18.4 19.4 21.0 23.6 24.2 27.0 29.6 32.3 34.2 18.8 18.6 19.8 19.8 As % of labour force 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 Sources: SURS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1 In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Statistical Appendix 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 942.3 942.5 944.4 947.9 949.0 949.6 947.7 948.4 951.7 961.9 964.1 965.7 964.0 965.4 966.5 967.2 968.1 968.0 965.6 964.7 966.6 854.4 856.8 863.2 869.3 872.3 874.6 871.6 872.4 877.9 885.7 888.0 887.2 881.2 884.7 890.0 893.2 896.1 897.2 893.8 893.2 896.8 24.7 24.5 24.9 27.2 27.2 27.2 25.3 25.2 25.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 23.8 23.8 23.8 272.0 272.7 276.4 278.3 279.6 281.1 281.8 282.7 284.5 286.5 287.3 287.5 285.5 287.0 290.0 292.0 292.9 293.2 292.9 292.4 292.9 198.4 199.0 200.4 200.9 201.6 202.4 202.5 203.1 204.1 205.6 206.3 207.4 206.9 207.3 207.8 208.5 208.5 208.5 207.6 207.4 207.7 54.2 54.2 56.3 57.4 58.1 58.8 59.4 59.7 60.4 60.9 61.0 60.3 58.9 59.9 62.3 63.5 64.3 64.7 65.2 65.0 65.1 557.7 559.5 561.9 563.9 565.5 566.3 564.6 564.6 568.2 571.3 572.7 571.8 570.2 572.2 574.4 575.8 577.9 578.7 577.1 577.0 580.0 48.7 48.8 48.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 49.0 49.1 49.1 49.0 49.1 48.9 48.7 48.8 48.8 48.6 49.1 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.1 134.0 134.2 134.6 134.9 135.0 135.1 133.3 133.1 135.4 136.3 136.9 136.8 136.5 137.0 137.4 137.7 137.9 137.8 136.5 136.3 138.2 763.8 766.3 772.3 776.2 779.0 781.4 780.3 781.0 786.1 790.9 792.9 792.3 788.7 792.1 797.3 800.7 803.5 804.6 802.7 802.0 805.3 714.8 717.3 722.2 725.3 727.8 730.0 728.8 729.6 734.4 738.9 740.8 741.2 738.3 741.3 745.2 747.8 750.3 751.2 749.4 748.7 751.9 49.0 49.0 50.1 50.9 51.2 51.4 51.5 51.4 51.7 52.1 52.1 51.1 50.4 50.7 52.1 53.0 53.3 53.4 53.4 53.3 53.5 90.6 90.5 90.9 93.1 93.2 93.2 91.3 91.5 91.8 94.8 95.1 94.9 92.5 92.6 92.7 92.5 92.6 92.6 91.0 91.2 91.4 87.9 85.7 81.2 78.6 76.7 75.0 76.1 75.9 73.8 76.2 76.1 78.5 82.8 80.8 76.5 74.0 72.0 70.7 71.9 71.5 69.8 43.1 42.1 41.0 40.2 39.3 38.4 39.4 39.5 37.9 39.3 39.1 39.1 40.4 39.7 38.6 37.7 36.7 36.1 37.1 37.1 35.7 17.2 16.4 15.5 14.7 14.0 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.5 16.3 15.9 15.9 16.2 15.7 14.5 13.7 13.1 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.4 34.5 34.0 32.8 32.2 31.7 31.1 31.0 30.6 29.9 29.7 29.6 30.5 32.3 31.7 30.6 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.0 25.2 24.2 23.7 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.3 23.6 25.1 26.8 26.2 24.4 23.4 22.8 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.1 43.7 42.9 42.2 41.5 41.0 40.1 39.9 39.6 39.1 39.3 39.2 39.0 39.7 39.1 38.7 38.4 38.4 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.9 25.7 24.6 23.0 19.3 18.6 18.1 18.0 18.9 17.9 17.0 18.2 20.5 24.8 23.8 21.8 17.3 17.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 17.9 9.3 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.5 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 9.1 9.1 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.1 2.9 -2.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 1.1 -0.1 -2.1 2.5 -0.1 2.4 4.3 -2.0 -4.2 -2.6 -2.0 -1.3 1.1 -0.3 -1.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 4.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 10.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2 6.0 4.2 4.6 5.5 5.2 6.7 10.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 5.8 3.9 4.8 6.2 5.6 8.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 3.6 3.2 5.9 4.8 4.4 3.3 5.3 5.6 7.6 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.9 5.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.6 24.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.6 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.1 35.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 2018 2019 26 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Wages in EUR 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2018 J Q3 18 J Sep 19 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal in € y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,682 1,725 1,712 1.8 2.7 3.4 2.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.0 3.3 4.6 3.9 4.5 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,627 1,652 1,632 1.3 2.7 3.8 2.6 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 4.0 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,857 1,967 1,976 3.3 2.8 2.4 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.2 1.3 6.4 6.1 6.0 Industry (B-E) 1,697 1,713 1,679 1.9 3.2 3.8 2.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.9 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,489 1,509 1,496 0.9 2.7 4.0 2.8 4.0 3.7 4.3 3.5 4.5 4.3 3.1 3.8 Other market services (J-N; R-S) 1,794 1,849 1,837 0.7 2.1 3.9 2.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 2.7 5.1 5.7 4.4 5.4 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,381 1,422 1,422 -0.4 0.2 5.3 -1.2 1.5 1.1 5.6 6.0 7.8 5.4 3.0 3.8 B Mining and quarrying 2,239 2,227 2,226 2.7 1.2 7.6 0.5 -2.8 12.6 4.7 3.9 9.1 -3.0 -1.8 2.6 C Manufacturing 1,659 1,676 1,645 2.1 3.2 3.9 2.8 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.9 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,519 2,544 2,430 1.3 4.3 2.9 3.6 6.2 1.5 6.5 1.3 2.2 4.6 2.4 4.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,624 1,647 1,616 1.9 3.5 3.0 1.4 4.2 2.2 1.4 3.7 4.5 3.7 2.0 3.9 F Constrution 1,290 1,322 1,312 1.3 2.7 4.2 2.3 4.4 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.8 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,548 1,571 1,570 1.6 3.3 4.2 3.4 4.5 4.2 4.7 3.6 4.4 4.9 3.2 4.5 H Transportation and storage 1,542 1,537 1,495 -0.5 1.7 3.3 1.5 3.1 2.4 3.1 2.9 4.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,170 1,224 1,214 1.4 2.8 4.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.2 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.6 4.3 J Information and communication 2,245 2,336 2,343 0.6 2.4 4.1 3.1 3.2 1.8 3.6 4.4 6.3 6.8 5.9 4.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2,480 2,483 2,474 1.5 3.2 4.8 2.8 5.3 6.3 5.8 2.1 4.8 6.0 2.8 5.3 L Real estate activities 1,530 1,580 1,587 0.7 1.8 0.9 2.5 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.2 2.3 3.7 5.8 5.4 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,883 1,946 1,913 0.7 3.9 4.2 4.9 5.8 5.7 4.2 2.8 4.1 4.3 4.1 5.0 N Administrative and support service activities 1,143 1,191 1,176 3.4 2.5 5.8 2.3 4.2 5.7 5.6 4.9 7.0 6.1 4.4 6.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2,010 2,215 2,196 4.7 4.0 3.2 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.6 2.9 3.4 9.5 9.4 8.6 P Education 1,732 1,808 1,840 2.5 1.7 0.9 2.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.8 5.3 5.4 5.3 Q Human health and social work activities 1,877 1,951 1,957 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 5.9 4.6 5.6 3.5 0.1 5.0 4.1 4.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,706 1,739 1,733 2.7 1.7 1.7 3.1 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.7 3.8 S Other service activities 1,363 1,413 1,415 -0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 1.3 2.3 4.5 3.2 4.5 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 27 2018 2019 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4.2 3.6 2.9 4.6 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.5 1.8 3.4 3.2 3.4 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.4 4.9 4.5 3.9 3.1 5.4 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.6 2.5 4.6 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 5.0 2.7 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 6.3 6.3 6.6 5.8 5.8 6.7 6.2 5.4 6.3 5.9 4.1 2.1 5.5 3.2 3.3 5.0 4.2 2.2 4.7 4.0 1.8 3.3 4.4 2.9 4.2 3.2 2.3 4.9 2.2 4.5 3.4 4.4 3.3 6.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.4 3.3 4.5 3.0 6.0 4.5 3.9 4.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.4 3.0 3.8 3.6 3.0 4.7 4.6 3.3 3.8 2.3 3.7 2.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 5.5 7.3 4.3 4.9 4.0 6.8 3.9 5.7 4.7 1.9 -2.9 6.9 5.7 4.3 6.8 4.1 7.0 8.5 7.5 7.4 6.0 5.4 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.6 5.4 2.3 3.6 28.5 2.7 6.5 6.7 10.9 -2.8 4.0 5.5 2.2 8.3 7.3 11.8 -11.9 3.6 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 5.8 -2.5 4.6 5.9 4.5 2.4 5.6 3.5 3.1 5.2 4.5 2.5 4.6 4.1 2.0 3.5 4.7 2.8 4.6 3.5 2.4 5.0 2.3 4.5 4.7 -0.5 0.6 5.0 0.7 14.0 3.1 1.9 -1.2 7.5 3.3 -3.2 4.2 2.7 6.9 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.2 3.9 5.0 2.3 4.6 -0.1 3.5 2.8 -1.9 4.9 3.7 2.6 5.4 4.8 3.4 6.2 2.4 2.3 0.6 2.7 2.9 5.2 2.2 4.3 6.6 5.8 2.2 6.8 3.5 2.7 5.1 2.6 4.2 4.8 3.7 3.2 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.6 3.1 2.3 3.0 4.0 5.0 3.7 7.3 3.7 3.0 4.0 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 4.5 5.3 2.0 3.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 5.1 1.8 3.3 2.3 4.5 1.2 3.7 3.4 2.8 2.4 4.4 0.2 9.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.4 4.1 1.1 0.8 4.5 4.2 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.4 4.7 5.1 4.8 5.5 3.3 6.4 4.8 4.7 6.0 3.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 3.3 4.7 2.3 3.9 -0.6 5.0 3.3 2.7 5.5 5.5 2.2 8.1 3.8 7.1 5.0 6.4 8.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 4.3 3.3 6.4 4.4 -0.7 14.7 5.1 4.4 8.0 2.7 0.8 2.8 4.4 5.0 4.8 0.6 3.8 12.5 0.6 5.9 1.8 5.9 3.5 6.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 -1.0 0.8 1.0 -1.3 0.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 4.1 3.8 3.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 7.0 5.8 4.3 5.9 4.4 2.3 3.6 3.3 1.4 3.2 4.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 5.6 2.9 3.7 5.4 4.5 5.1 3.9 7.2 6.0 6.6 4.5 5.6 1.2 8.3 5.6 6.5 9.0 5.6 7.4 5.2 5.7 5.7 3.9 3.7 11.1 3.2 4.1 4.9 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 3.6 1.0 2.9 2.3 4.9 10.1 9.4 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 7.4 8.0 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.4 -1.3 0.5 0.5 1.2 5.0 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.8 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.2 4.5 4.9 1.1 -1.6 0.6 1.3 4.4 4.8 5.6 3.4 3.5 5.6 3.8 4.4 5.4 1.8 1.2 0.0 1.3 2.7 3.2 1.3 1.8 -1.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 4.1 5.0 6.3 -1.3 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 -0.8 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 4.4 5.0 4.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 5.4 28 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Prices and indicators of overall competitiveness 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 =ood, non-alcoholic beverages 1.7 2.9 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.7 0.4 1.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 0.4 3.0 0.4 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.0 3.6 2.1 Clothing and footwear -2.9 1.3 0.3 2.4 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 -1.3 -0.2 0.7 0.5 3.6 -1.8 1.3 0.1 1.5 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.1 3.6 4.7 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 5.4 4.2 5.3 4.5 2.9 3.6 3.8 2.9 Furnishing, household equipm. 0.9 0.4 0.9 -0.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.9 -0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.2 Medical, pharmaceutical produ. 0.8 0.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 Transport -0.1 1.6 -0.7 0.7 1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.9 0.6 -1.3 0.1 -1.3 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.2 Communications 2.9 -2.3 3.3 -0.8 -1.8 -1.6 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -2.5 Recreation and culture 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.4 -0.6 1.8 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.3 2.1 0.0 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 Education 0.3 3.7 1.7 0.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 1.8 2.2 3.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.9 Catering services 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.0 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.5 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 HICP 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 Core inflation (excluding :resh food and energy) 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.5 2.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 Domestic market -0.2 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 Non-domestic market 1.2 2.6 1.6 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 1.8 0.9 -0.3 -1.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.0 Euro area 0.6 2.3 1.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.9 1.9 1.2 -0.3 -1.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 Non-euro area 2.3 3.6 1.7 3.9 4.0 2.5 1.6 2.1 1.7 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 4.2 3.6 3.6 2.0 mport price indices 2.7 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.4 0.5 2.4 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.2 -1.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate2, nominal 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 Real (deflator HICP) 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 Real (deflator ULC) 1.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 2.1 1.2 -0.6 0.9 0.5 2.5 USD/EUR 1.1066 1.1293 1.1815 1.1744 1.1777 1.2294 1.1922 1.1631 1.1412 1.1357 1.1239 1.1116 1.1738 1.1836 1.2200 1.2348 Sources: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 18 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 29 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2 2.2 2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.8 2 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1 -1 0.1 -1 0.3 0.5 -0.5 2.1 -0.2 0.1 1.5 3.2 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.5 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 4 3.8 5.2 5.9 5.5 4.7 3.5 3.9 5.1 5.1 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 0.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.3 1 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 0.7 1.3 1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 2 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 1 -0.7 -2 -1.6 -0.2 0.8 0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -2 -0.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 3.3 2.1 3.9 3.1 1.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2 1.1 0.5 1.2 -1.0 1.1 2.8 1.6 1.4 1 1.2 2.6 3 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.9 2 0.7 1.3 2 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.4 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.2 3 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 0.8 1.2 2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2 3.5 3.4 4.5 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 2 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 2 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 2018 2019 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 2 2.2 2 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 1 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.1 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.2336 1.2276 1.1812 1.1678 1.1686 1.1549 1.1659 1.1484 1.1367 1.1384 1.1416 1.1351 1.1302 1.1238 1.1185 1.1293 1.1218 1.1126 1.1004 1.1053 30 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Balance of payments 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 1,942 2,635 2,593 892 571 693 699 800 401 672 860 740 450 421 23 127 Goods 1,536 1,579 1,128 479 317 328 427 371 2 418 442 244 274 240 56 21 Exports 24,991 28,478 31,133 7,035 7,443 7,537 7,932 7,605 8,059 7,984 8,298 7,833 2,612 2,644 2,581 2,218 Imports 23,454 26,899 30,005 6,556 7,126 7,209 7,506 7,234 8,056 7,566 7,856 7,590 2,338 2,404 2,525 2,197 Services 1,925 2,241 2,678 684 508 531 642 803 702 591 748 826 234 245 109 154 Exports 6,501 7,288 7,963 2,121 1,874 1,651 1,918 2,286 2,109 1,802 2,099 2,404 675 651 554 669 Imports 4,575 5,047 5,285 1,437 1,366 1,120 1,276 1,483 1,407 1,212 1,351 1,578 440 406 445 515 Primary income -1,139 -886 -807 -204 -208 -28 -296 -254 -228 -121 -231 -214 -49 -47 -121 -40 Receipts 1,259 1,374 1,592 299 353 421 438 320 413 418 400 323 108 106 112 135 Expenditures 2,398 2,260 2,399 503 561 449 734 574 642 539 632 537 156 154 232 175 Secondary income -381 -299 -406 -67 -46 -138 -73 -120 -75 -215 -98 -116 -10 -17 -21 -8 Receipts 713 828 789 205 239 175 201 172 241 182 185 199 75 76 74 89 Expenditures 1,094 1,127 1,196 272 285 314 274 292 316 397 283 315 85 92 95 98 Capital account -303 -324 -225 -59 -59 -41 -35 -28 -120 -21 -6 -27 -9 31 -5 -85 Financial account 1,187 2,088 2,527 729 40 915 701 699 213 604 376 618 376 319 -67 -212 Direct investment -864 -495 -933 -100 -256 -25 -226 -465 -217 -440 -132 -123 -143 97 -174 -180 Assets 434 570 362 107 23 259 -10 18 94 415 -86 24 136 171 -102 -46 Liabilities 1,298 1,065 1,295 206 279 284 216 483 311 856 46 147 279 74 71 134 Portfolio investment 5,023 2,987 750 666 2,064 -1,290 1,559 996 -515 548 -108 -135 4 1,057 412 595 Financial derivatives -270 -185 -86 -24 18 2 -76 24 -36 -184 5 19 -8 7 5 7 Other investment -2,606 -308 2,743 162 -1,774 2,239 -534 73 965 659 567 891 522 -855 -274 -645 Assets -2,221 -1,381 2,031 -1,092 -139 814 374 -371 1,214 698 1,410 1,070 -389 -141 25 -22 Other equity 35 72 68 15 -8 42 35 16 -25 45 15 12 5 -9 -9 10 Currency and deposits -2,132 -2,076 1,590 -1,259 132 227 137 -286 1,512 19 1,144 1,138 -671 -239 46 325 Loans -203 -115 207 -38 -34 -6 91 50 72 51 324 62 -13 14 -17 -32 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 10 5 -7 3 0 1 1 -1 -8 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 Trade credit and advances 167 615 303 115 -197 463 105 54 -318 569 -63 -140 262 115 9 -321 Other assets -97 118 -130 73 -31 87 5 -205 -18 6 -10 -3 27 -23 -4 -5 Liabilities 385 -1,073 -713 -1,255 1,635 -1,426 908 -444 249 39 844 179 -910 714 299 622 Other equity 4 20 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 1,128 365 -524 -430 1,679 -1,318 187 242 365 110 425 305 -669 707 243 729 Loans -818 -1,853 -490 -695 -262 -237 131 -85 -299 -109 145 57 -227 -115 -127 -19 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -8 5 20 2 -8 27 21 -14 -14 40 13 0 1 -3 -3 -3 Trade credit and advances 137 411 331 -56 224 112 243 -201 179 2 115 -141 89 151 135 -62 Other liabilities -57 -21 -52 -76 2 -10 327 -385 16 -4 145 -42 -104 -25 51 -23 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -97 89 52 25 -12 -12 -22 70 16 21 44 -33 2 14 -36 11 Net errors and omissions -452 -223 158 -104 -473 263 37 -73 -68 -48 -478 -94 -64 -134 -85 -254 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR million Export of investment goods 2,781 3,201 3,557 786 877 831 892 853 980 926 948 N/A 300 311 284 282 Intermediate goods 13,731 15,335 16,674 3,746 3,898 4,086 4,207 4,103 4,274 4,322 4,395 N/A 1,367 1,389 1,403 1,106 Consumer goods 8,459 9,730 10,639 2,444 2,594 2,623 2,775 2,534 2,701 2,988 3,224 N/A 928 907 876 811 Import of investment goods 3,292 3,660 4,208 858 1,066 1,016 1,023 1,028 1,171 1,041 1,098 N/A 308 345 364 357 Intermediate goods 13,792 16,185 17,913 3,943 4,262 4,307 4,549 4,297 4,716 4,631 4,789 N/A 1,385 1,439 1,525 1,298 Consumer goods 7,028 7,761 8,585 1,919 1,977 2,076 2,127 2,058 2,340 2,425 2,816 N/A 687 683 701 593 Sources: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 31 2018 2019 1 2 3 4 5 6 | 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 1 5 | 6 7 8 9 236 158 299 252 182 265 280 212 307 217 183 1 268 148 256 265 320 275 308 213 218 74 67 188 164 64 199 196 75 101 6 91 -95 106 158 153 43 148 250 144 30 70 2,387 2,365 2,785 2,507 2,679 2,746 2,738 2,245 2,623 2,906 2,859 2,293 2,543 2,590 2,850 2,786 2,836 2,675 2,874 2,205 2,755 2,314 2,298 2,597 2,343 2,616 2,547 2,542 2,170 2,522 2,899 2,768 2,388 2,437 2,432 2,697 2,743 2,688 2,425 2,730 2,175 2,684 188 146 197 219 208 216 263 261 279 288 226 188 213 171 207 300 229 219 291 297 238 541 503 607 645 619 654 786 777 723 739 650 720 570 578 655 738 660 702 858 816 730 353 356 410 426 411 439 522 516 444 451 424 532 357 407 448 438 431 483 567 518 493 3 9 -40 -93 -62 -141 -131 -79 -44 -45 -98 -85 19 -78 -62 -53 -32 -146 -74 -77 -63 152 151 117 130 145 164 112 96 112 116 110 188 204 95 119 123 152 125 111 102 111 149 143 157 223 206 305 244 175 155 161 208 273 185 173 181 176 184 272 185 178 174 -28 -63 -47 -38 -27 -8 -47 -45 -28 -32 -35 -7 -70 -103 -42 -25 -26 -48 -52 -37 -27 58 56 61 67 60 73 59 53 60 81 65 96 58 66 58 70 59 55 66 61 72 86 119 108 105 87 81 106 97 89 113 100 103 128 169 100 95 85 103 118 98 99 -12 -15 -15 -9 -8 -18 -24 7 -11 2 -7 -115 -15 -17 11 -7 17 -17 -8 -10 -9 584 384 -54 217 536 -53 313 77 309 334 251 -372 446 361 -203 143 279 -46 525 -292 385 32 -52 -4 -57 20 -189 -226 -147 -91 112 -89 -240 -2 -445 7 -108 -53 29 41 -67 -97 40 116 103 0 -48 38 108 -210 121 231 -20 -117 73 172 170 -31 39 -94 95 -94 23 8 168 107 57 -68 227 334 -63 212 119 69 123 75 617 163 77 92 -123 54 -27 120 -1,456 321 -156 320 1,281 -42 233 455 308 90 -687 82 -1,506 2,166 -112 168 34 -310 -293 -29 187 4 2 -4 -28 -26 -23 5 12 7 -11 -14 -11 -62 -56 -66 3 -2 5 8 0 11 2,008 147 84 -11 -741 218 296 -260 38 131 1,031 -196 1,989 -1,272 -58 54 294 218 806 -207 292 353 95 366 -101 71 404 -61 -411 101 285 1,038 -108 1,766 -1,302 234 196 747 467 823 74 173 14 14 14 12 11 11 5 6 5 -8 -8 -9 4 37 5 5 5 5 3 5 4 217 -211 221 30 4 103 -63 -30 -193 131 1,005 376 1,300 -1,454 173 206 571 367 912 204 23 2 14 -22 8 28 55 5 -17 62 38 7 27 32 14 5 12 133 179 -5 29 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 68 138 257 -46 -17 168 24 -196 226 93 25 -436 179 195 195 17 -30 -50 -81 -178 119 51 140 -104 -106 45 67 -32 -174 1 34 13 -65 249 -97 -146 -44 68 -34 -6 14 -11 -1,655 -52 282 -90 811 186 -356 -151 64 154 6 88 -223 -30 292 141 453 249 17 281 -119 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1,365 -149 196 -78 365 -100 65 131 46 121 5 239 -70 105 75 124 149 152 75 218 12 -160 -18 -59 32 84 15 0 -55 -31 -51 -3 -245 8 -186 69 48 72 25 151 176 -270 9 9 9 7 7 7 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 13 13 13 4 4 4 0 0 0 -184 70 226 -13 -5 260 -53 -227 78 67 52 60 -288 151 139 -70 153 32 -173 -109 140 45 36 -90 -38 361 4 -364 4 -25 22 -43 37 114 -114 -4 36 74 35 -36 -5 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -34 26 -6 1 -17 6 18 47 13 10 -7 27 -33 27 25 7 12 -37 11 -7 360 240 -338 -26 362 -299 57 -142 12 115 74 -258 193 229 -470 -116 -58 -304 225 -496 176 242 270 319 278 308 306 305 252 296 319 332 328 288 310 328 310 323 314 339 257 N/A 1,311 1,306 1,469 1,337 1,419 1,452 1,454 1,228 1,421 1,609 1,536 1,129 1,423 1,395 1,504 1,489 1,495 1,411 1,558 1,233 N/A 824 807 992 872 937 965 948 730 856 947 956 798 981 959 1,048 1,024 1,134 1,065 1,131 825 N/A 356 304 356 315 367 341 351 298 379 376 405 390 337 321 384 368 370 360 380 260 N/A 1,379 1,379 1,549 1,397 1,596 1,556 1,529 1,241 1,527 1,755 1,646 1,314 1,495 1,507 1,629 1,733 1,620 1,436 1,660 1,332 N/A 643 674 759 691 729 707 718 663 678 826 786 728 807 771 847 1,065 852 900 1,027 750 N/A 32 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Monetary indicators and interest rates 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 1 1 2 | 3 | 4 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Claims of the BoS on central government 4,618 6,247 6,290 5,173 5,297 5,485 5,600 5,781 6,041 6,247 6,290 6,273 6,471 6,524 Central government (S.1311) 6,273 5,170 5,154 5,699 5,524 5,489 5,491 5,136 5,114 5,170 5,154 5,099 4,927 4,859 Other government (S.1312,1313,1314) 576 571 576 573 572 563 559 556 550 571 576 571 563 568 Households (S.14, 15) 9,154 9,733 9,765 9,447 9,476 9,541 9,604 9,660 9,699 9,733 9,765 9,778 9,860 9,905 Non-financial corporations (S.11) 9,664 9,644 9,682 9,800 9,824 9,828 9,816 9,780 9,716 9,644 9,682 9,687 9,598 9,628 Non-monetary financial nstitutions (S.123, 124, 125) 1,411 1,566 1,627 1,254 1,247 1,241 1,545 1,558 1,548 1,566 1,627 1,621 1,528 1,547 Monetary financial institutions (S.121, 122) 3,541 3,886 3,682 3,550 3,635 3,625 3,440 3,705 3,824 3,886 3,682 3,798 3,884 3,955 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL n domestic currency 23,969 25,496 25,363 24,313 24,338 24,377 24,478 24,840 24,940 25,496 25,363 25,448 25,461 25,580 n foreign currency 672 528 545 624 597 596 571 567 554 528 545 535 529 498 Securities, total 5,889 4,450 4,487 5,291 5,254 5,224 5,308 4,887 4,858 4,450 4,487 4,474 4,266 4,266 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Deposits in domestic currency, total 26,497 28,021 28,115 27,037 27,148 27,289 27,403 27,541 27,770 28,021 28,115 28,191 28,201 28,253 Overnight 15,081 17,331 17,476 16,021 16,377 16,515 16,792 16,825 17,075 17,331 17,476 17,601 17,727 17,889 With agreed maturity - short-term 3,955 3,398 3,294 3,426 3,261 3,292 3,290 3,303 3,257 3,398 3,294 3,287 3,260 3,232 With agreed maturity - long-term 6,829 6,734 6,679 6,901 6,821 6,763 6,661 6,708 6,718 6,734 6,679 6,664 6,566 6,550 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 632 558 666 689 689 719 660 705 720 558 666 639 648 582 Deposits in foreign currency, total 687 636 638 699 699 694 656 658 664 636 638 641 660 665 Overnight 564 547 542 582 582 573 551 542 549 547 542 540 552 573 With agreed maturity - short-term 65 45 53 67 69 74 58 69 69 45 53 58 66 49 With agreed maturity - long-term 58 44 43 50 48 47 47 47 46 44 43 43 42 43 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 0.21 0.13 0.16 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed nterest rate 2.66 2.63 2.65 2.63 2.72 2.72 2.68 2.64 2.51 2.65 2.60 2.57 2.56 2.58 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 2.07 1.53 2.02 1.17 0.75 1.15 1.56 0.8 1.15 1.06 1.78 2.02 2.53 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, v % Main refinancing operations 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates -0.264 -0.329 -0.321 -0.330 -0.330 -0.329 -0.329 -0.330 -0.329 -0.328 -0.329 -0.329 -0.328 -0.329 6-month rates -0.164 -0.260 -0.266 -0.267 -0.273 -0.272 -0.273 -0.274 -0.274 -0.271 -0.274 -0.275 -0.271 -0.270 LIBOR 3-month rates -0.747 -0.732 -0.735 -0.730 -0.728 -0.726 -0.726 -0.726 -0.745 -0.755 -0.740 -0.745 -0.740 -0.733 6-month rates -0.671 -0.658 -0.653 -0.663 -0.651 -0.651 -0.650 -0.649 -0.653 -0.653 -0.644 -0.662 -0.657 -0.650 Sources: BoS, EUROSTAT. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Statistical Appendix 33 2018 2019 5 6 7 8 | 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 1 6 7 8 9 10 6,600 6,791 6,915 7,042 7,041 7,059 7,088 7,165 7,256 7,023 7,152 7,219 7,327 7,606 7,631 7,913 7,791 7,819 4,904 4,912 4,870 4,877 4,831 4,905 4,939 4,937 4,980 4,805 4,819 4,944 5,089 5,058 5,070 5,007 5,037 4,959 565 564 560 562 554 559 558 580 588 587 583 577 581 577 570 567 574 573 9,996 10,033 10,075 10,161 10,231 10,296 10,339 10,370 10,397 10,426 10,507 10,570 10,628 10,642 10,703 10,781 10,833 10,950 9,582 9,627 9,648 9,647 9,647 9,656 9,628 9,496 9,665 9,676 9,681 9,637 9,571 9,749 9,738 9,878 9,868 9,869 1,616 1,611 1,605 1,592 1,593 1,497 1,503 1,502 1,503 1,490 1,486 1,484 1,482 1,496 1,503 1,493 1,486 1,479 3,800 3,954 4,269 4,186 4,060 3,614 3,904 4,275 4,247 4,380 4,207 3,963 4,099 4,001 4,335 4,067 3,894 4,011 25,444 25,584 25,959 26,051 25,973 25,600 25,921 26,181 26,367 26,516 26,385 26,138 26,329 26,381 26,725 26,651 26,509 26,728 518 533 489 491 485 467 451 446 435 432 434 420 422 419 416 420 412 398 4,399 4,481 4,477 4,381 4,356 4,354 4,393 4,429 4,475 4,397 4,433 4,580 4,659 4,685 4,727 4,666 4,704 4,642 28,453 28,499 28,888 28,940 28,943 29,065 29,227 29,442 29,468 29,903 29,916 29,994 30,177 30,260 30,709 30,733 30,585 30,678 18,084 18,260 18,664 18,752 18,740 18,786 19,014 19,440 19,389 19,615 19,717 19,830 20,009 20,099 20,474 20,521 20,676 20,611 3,184 3,160 3,147 3,214 3,280 3,333 3,299 3,261 3,212 3,353 3,320 3,316 3,343 3,342 3,408 3,423 3,340 3,448 6,497 6,419 6,414 6,349 6,275 6,276 6,228 6,166 6,210 6,175 6,127 6,047 6,042 6,054 6,059 6,010 5,823 5,806 688 660 663 625 648 670 686 575 657 760 752 801 783 765 768 779 746 813 690 670 661 636 657 644 644 651 625 634 645 643 674 686 681 686 685 646 585 568 585 562 583 568 570 581 552 564 575 575 606 621 616 622 620 585 61 61 36 34 34 36 33 31 33 29 29 28 28 29 28 27 28 26 44 41 40 40 40 40 41 39 40 41 41 40 40 36 37 37 37 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 2.63 2.65 2.79 2.62 2.69 2.66 2.71 2.74 2.81 2.72 2.69 2.66 2.80 2.65 2.7 2.75 2.62 2.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.325 -0.322 -0.321 -0.319 -0.319 -0.318 -0.316 -0.312 -0.308 -0.308 -0.309 -0.311 -0.312 -0.329 -0.365 -0.408 -0.418 -0.413 -0.270 -0.269 -0.269 -0.267 -0.268 -0.264 -0.257 -0.241 -0.236 -0.232 -0.230 -0.231 -0.237 -0.279 -0.347 -0.405 -0.394 -0.362 -0.726 -0.732 -0.725 -0.726 -0.731 -0.741 -0.745 -0.735 -0.704 -0.713 -0.707 -0.715 -0.713 -0.717 -0.751 -0.817 -0.812 -0.774 -0.647 -0.645 -0.647 -0.649 -0.652 -0.662 -0.667 -0.659 -0.639 -0.652 -0.648 -0.650 -0.656 -0.673 -0.719 -0.802 -0.771 -0.711 34 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 7/2019 Public finance 2016 2017 2018 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 | 12 1 1 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EUR m TOTAL REVENUES 15,842.2 16,803.3 18,593.0 4,026.9 4,372.9 4,170.8 4,712.5 4,607.9 5,101.9 4,518.5 4,944.0 4,671.5 1,443.3 1,404.1 1,525.5 1,465.5 Current revenues 15,203.9 16,251.4 17,575.5 3,927.5 4,212.6 3,994.9 4,525.9 4,251.7 4,803.1 4,271.9 4,730.5 4,477.6 1,426.3 1,356.0 1,430.3 1,431.0 Tax revenues 14,240.5 15,162.0 16,224.9 3,678.7 3,991.2 3,782.0 4,230.9 3,914.8 4,297.3 4,103.3 4,350.6 4,169.7 1,351.5 1,287.2 1,352.5 1,376.0 Taxes on income and profit 2,680.8 2,967.0 3,296.3 582.5 770.8 785.5 990.7 651.8 868.2 850.4 1,058.4 717.7 251.4 244.9 274.5 263.2 Social security contributions 5,720.6 6,092.1 6,549.8 1,510.5 1,598.2 1,592.8 1,619.6 1,622.4 1,715.0 1,710.3 1,734.9 1,745.5 509.4 514.6 574.1 542.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 19.8 21.3 21.6 4.9 6.1 5.0 5.6 5.0 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.4 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 Taxes on property 256.2 274.2 277.7 100.1 75.9 28.1 65.0 106.7 77.9 26.3 67.6 120.9 38.2 22.3 15.4 12.2 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,432.9 5,722.8 5,989.3 1,463.5 1,521.3 1,336.8 1,519.5 1,500.6 1,632.4 1,427.8 1,490.3 1,565.7 531.3 516.1 473.9 516.9 Taxes on international trade & transactions 81.9 83.3 89.8 21.7 19.9 22.6 21.4 22.7 23.2 25.5 25.6 25.5 7.5 6.3 6.1 6.7 Other taxes 48.2 1.3 0.5 -4.4 -1.0 11.2 9.3 5.6 -25.6 57.8 -32.0 -11.1 11.8 -18.9 6.2 32.3 Non-tax revenues 963.4 1,089.4 1,350.6 248.8 221.4 212.9 295.0 336.9 505.8 168.5 380.0 307.9 74.8 68.8 77.8 55.0 Capital revenues 96.2 91.2 152.7 17.4 33.0 28.6 37.3 43.9 43.0 23.6 31.2 34.3 7.8 11.0 14.1 7.7 Grants 10.4 9.5 12.4 6.0 1.5 0.2 1.5 7.1 3.6 5.2 1.1 6.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.7 Transferred revenues 51.1 52.3 55.6 50.0 1.1 0.4 0.5 51.4 3.3 1.8 3.1 50.3 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 480.5 399.0 796.8 25.9 124.8 146.7 147.4 253.8 249.0 216.0 178.0 103.1 7.7 36.6 80.6 27.5 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, EUR m TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,496.7 17,102.0 18,066.6 4,115.7 4,721.1 4,337.0 4,282.8 4,387.6 5,059.2 4,689.6 4,506.0 4,706.2 1,359.6 1,588.2 1,773.3 1,412.4 Current expenditures 7,407.1 7,733.0 7,966.9 1,782.3 2,103.4 2,027.9 1,919.2 1,877.2 2,142.5 2,116.1 2,010.6 2,007.8 586.0 772.6 744.8 651.8 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,785.4 3,938.1 4,168.2 956.5 1,008.5 980.7 1,091.2 1,016.8 1,079.5 1,067.7 1,176.4 1,100.0 332.1 327.6 348.9 321.1 Expenditures on goods and services 2,371.4 2,626.6 2,633.2 586.2 886.0 552.0 642.6 640.6 798.0 602.3 669.5 675.6 209.3 350.4 326.3 176.1 Interest payments 1,074.2 985.3 867.9 206.5 116.2 462.5 145.7 190.3 69.5 404.2 122.7 175.7 33.5 77.7 4.9 147.5 Reserves 176.1 183.0 297.5 33.0 92.7 32.7 39.7 29.4 195.6 42.0 42.1 56.4 11.1 16.9 64.6 7.0 Current transfers 7,700.0 7,912.9 8,235.0 2,001.8 1,989.8 2,034.4 2,027.4 2,071.1 2,102.1 2,187.9 2,107.1 2,201.3 623.5 661.0 705.3 683.3 Subsidies 397.0 425.4 443.8 79.8 108.2 159.9 103.9 52.7 127.3 161.8 113.4 53.8 20.6 45.1 42.4 73.5 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,495.5 6,665.1 6,925.4 1,718.8 1,650.0 1,678.4 1,715.1 1,811.9 1,720.0 1,784.6 1,816.5 1,912.7 538.0 540.2 571.8 551.7 Current transfers to nonprofit institutions, other current domestic transfers 727.8 748.0 792.5 184.6 206.5 174.8 192.4 193.4 231.9 216.6 163.1 215.0 63.9 61.6 80.9 51.6 Current transfers abroad 79.7 74.3 73.4 18.7 25.2 21.3 16.0 13.1 22.9 25.0 14.1 19.8 0.9 14.1 10.2 6.5 Capital expenditures 784.3 891.0 1,158.6 208.1 428.5 111.2 197.5 292.4 557.6 156.1 240.7 315.3 87.2 103.8 237.5 30.4 Capital transfers 177.8 186.6 272.7 37.0 103.8 29.7 54.4 42.1 146.4 24.7 48.9 57.9 30.6 19.1 54.1 8.4 Payments to the EU budget 427.4 378.5 433.4 86.5 95.6 133.8 84.4 104.8 110.5 204.8 98.8 123.8 32.2 31.8 31.6 38.6 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -654.5 -298.7 526.4 -88.8 -348.2 -166.2 429.7 220.3 42.7 -171.1 438.0 -34.6 83.7 -184.1 -247.8 53.1 Source: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Statistical Appendix 35 2018 2019 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1,382.4 1,717.1 1,418.4 1,577.0 1,461.6 1,682.9 1,463.3 1,790.8 1,542.8 1,768.2 1,547.5 1,401.3 1,569.8 1,702.7 1,622.5 1,618.8 1,461.5 1,556.0 1,654.1 1,669.3 1,261.7 1,582.6 1,391.2 1,552.0 1,390.2 1,471.5 1,390.0 1,764.5 1,498.0 1,540.6 1,529.5 1,372.4 1,373.9 1,623.1 1,542.0 1,565.4 1,438.2 1,539.6 1,500.3 1,626.9 1,161.1 1,515.1 1,275.0 1,440.8 1,237.8 1,367.4 1,309.6 1,418.4 1,435.5 1,443.3 1,473.5 1,315.3 1,314.5 1,545.1 1,400.4 1,405.1 1,308.2 1,461.2 1,400.2 1,535.2 269.4 347.6 284.7 358.4 115.2 279.3 257.3 271.5 280.8 316.0 289.6 275.3 285.4 426.4 300.1 332.0 126.7 308.1 282.9 305.1 542.3 543.5 537.1 539.0 541.0 537.8 543.6 540.7 550.6 623.7 575.5 563.7 571.1 580.1 576.6 578.2 583.8 582.3 579.4 579.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.0 8.3 18.2 16.8 29.9 33.1 38.3 35.3 39.2 23.3 15.4 10.6 8.1 7.6 18.8 19.9 28.9 35.7 36.6 48.5 35.8 362.8 590.1 418.9 510.4 533.5 518.1 449.0 591.4 561.5 479.6 531.1 503.3 393.4 541.8 492.5 456.0 564.8 522.0 478.9 601.5 6.4 8.3 5.5 7.5 7.5 8.1 7.1 7.8 8.6 6.9 7.3 8.9 9.2 9.3 8.3 8.0 10.2 8.1 7.2 8.0 -29.7 5.5 10.1 -6.3 5.5 -15.7 15.7 -33.9 8.9 -0.5 57.6 -45.8 46.0 -33.1 1.2 -0.1 -15.2 2.5 1.6 3.4 100.6 67.5 116.2 111.3 152.4 104.1 80.4 346.1 62.5 97.2 56.0 57.1 59.4 78.0 141.6 160.4 130.0 78.3 100.1 91.6 9.7 10.3 9.4 17.6 17.6 8.8 17.4 16.2 12.9 13.9 7.6 8.2 7.8 10.4 11.5 9.3 15.0 7.3 12.1 15.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 5.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 0.0 5.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 50.1 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 0.1 1.7 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.2 50.1 0.0 110.0 123.7 17.2 6.5 2.5 201.0 50.3 8.7 31.3 209.0 10.2 13.9 187.9 67.2 68.7 42.1 8.1 8.4 85.9 25.9 1,506.5 1,448.8 1,379.5 1,454.5 1,554.8 1,454.6 1,378.2 1,439.2 1,598.1 2,022.0 1,572.4 1,502.3 1,614.9 1,491.8 1,454.3 1,559.9 1,700.7 1,487.4 1,516.8 1,539.7 762.3 678.4 587.1 653.7 638.6 646.6 592.0 582.7 706.0 853.9 689.2 648.0 779.0 700.9 605.5 704.2 691.2 657.8 658.5 642.0 330.0 326.2 336.2 428.8 341.4 343.9 331.5 349.7 348.2 381.6 341.7 359.9 366.1 355.2 362.5 458.7 374.4 367.7 357.6 374.9 197.4 219.4 216.7 206.5 242.8 217.3 180.5 215.3 251.8 331.0 194.8 187.4 220.2 221.6 223.1 224.7 251.5 205.2 218.8 246.4 221.0 118.7 21.6 5.4 44.9 75.2 70.2 7.9 56.8 4.8 145.4 91.9 166.9 114.8 4.1 3.8 47.2 56.3 72.2 8.8 13.9 14.1 12.6 13.0 9.5 10.1 9.7 9.8 49.3 136.5 7.3 8.9 25.8 9.3 15.8 17.0 18.0 28.6 9.9 11.9 644.3 679.9 681.5 666.0 776.0 653.9 641.3 658.1 680.2 763.9 766.3 693.7 727.9 677.8 715.9 713.4 849.6 668.4 683.1 711.5 9.8 39.3 37.4 27.2 13.9 15.4 23.4 21.1 22.2 84.0 122.5 8.6 30.6 26.5 39.8 47.1 20.0 16.5 17.3 33.1 564.7 573.6 573.7 567.7 688.6 564.7 558.6 567.5 570.6 582.0 576.9 607.1 600.5 613.0 600.3 603.2 745.7 578.4 588.4 605.7 60.8 59.5 65.7 67.3 67.9 68.2 57.2 67.8 72.4 91.6 56.2 68.3 92.1 33.1 69.9 60.1 77.0 63.0 75.1 70.3 9.0 7.6 4.7 3.7 5.6 5.5 2.1 1.7 14.9 6.3 10.6 9.7 4.7 5.1 6.0 3.0 6.9 10.5 2.3 2.4 46.6 47.6 64.0 85.9 94.5 106.2 91.7 132.0 151.1 274.4 44.2 55.2 56.7 66.9 88.6 85.2 101.8 99.9 112.7 122.4 14.4 10.0 19.4 25.0 13.0 12.8 16.3 30.0 24.5 92.0 7.2 8.1 9.3 15.3 16.5 17.0 17.1 19.7 21.0 23.9 38.7 32.9 27.5 23.9 32.8 35.1 37.0 36.4 36.2 37.8 65.6 97.3 41.9 30.9 27.7 40.1 41.0 41.5 41.3 40.0 -124.1 268.3 39.0 122.5 -93.2 228.3 85.1 351.7 -55.2 -253.8 -25.0 -101.1 -45.1 210.9 168.2 58.9 -239.2 68.6 137.3 129.6 36 Acronyms Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 8/2019 Acronyms Acronyms in the text BoS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMMI - European Money Markets Institute, EMU - European Monetary Union, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European union, EUR - Euro, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offer Rate, reference interest rate for short-term interbank deposits in euros, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FI - Financial instruments, GDP - Gross domestic product, GNI - gross national income, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, LFS- Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - nedenarne financne institucije, OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers' Index, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, USD - US Dollar, VAT - value added tax. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam andair conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L - Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities ofhouseholds for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AU-Australia, AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CA-Canada, CH-Switzerland, CL-Chile, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, HR-Croatia, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IS-Iceland, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, KR-South Korea, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, MX-Mexico, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. slovenian economic mirror No. 8, Vol. XXV, 2019 ISSN 1318-3826 9 ff J IU JULUUI 9771318382607