.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) >< m cB fN to u| o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 7-8 / Vol. XIX / 2013 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Matevž Hribernik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Author of Selected Topic: Helena Mervic (Social protection expenditure - 2011), Valerija Korošec, PhD (OECD well-being indicators); Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................21 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................23 Boxes Box 1: GDP in Slovenia, Q2 2013....................................................................................................................................9 Box 2: Road and rail freight transport volumes..............................................................................................................13 Box 3: Price level indices for household final consumption expenditure on goods and services in EU Member States, 2012........................................................................................................................................................................17 Selected topics Social protection expenditure - 2011..........................................................................................................................27 OECD well-being indicators...........................................................................................................................................28 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................31 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 5 September 2013. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Economic activity in most Slovenia's main trading partners increased in the second quarter and the expectations regarding the recovery in the second half of the year improved. After a longer period ofcontraction euro area GDP rose by 0.3% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), being 0.5% lower year-on-year. In most of Slovenia's main trading partners growth was higher than expected by the European Commission in the spring. The prospects for the coming months improved, as indicated by confidence indicators, which reached the highest values since 2011 in the summer months. As a result of the banks' negative expectations regarding the recovery in individual activities and persistently high risks in the euro area, the credit standards for euro area companies and households tightened again, though less than in previous quarters. The contraction in economic activity in Slovenia, already recorded for two years, continued in the second quarter (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted). In the second quarter of last year the decline deepened, so that the year-on-year decline in GDP in the second quarter of this year (-1.7%) was smaller than in previous quarters largely due to the base effect. The contraction in economic activity is still mainly due to a fall in domestic consumption, with the greatest contribution to the year-on-year decline again coming from household consumption, which was down 2.0%. The continuation of unfavourable developments was already indicated by short-term indicators of consumption, with labour market conditions remaining tight and consumer confidence deteriorating again. The year-on-year decline in government consumption (-3.1%) was more pronounced than in previous quarters, while the year-on-year fall in gross fixed capital formation (-3.0%) was similar to that in the first quarter. Exports were once again the only factor to make a positive contribution to economic activity, but they declined relative to the previous quarter. Labour market conditions remained tight in the second quarter. The number of employed persons according to the statistical register remained unchanged in the second quarter relative to the first (seasonally adjusted), but was still down 2.9% year-on-year. In most activities the number of employed persons declined, while in the construction sector it rose for the first time since 2008. In recent months registered unemployment has increased less than at the beginning of the year, being up 10.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. Compared with June, the number of registered unemployed persons rose by 0.2% in July (seasonally adjusted) to 117,143. In the second quarter the average gross earnings per employee remained practically unchanged, having maintained a similar level since the third quarter of last year, when they had declined in the public sector with the adoption of the ZUJF. The average gross earnings in the private sector, which otherwise rose slightly in the second quarter (0.2%, seasonally adjusted), remained almost unchanged for the last one and a half years. The average gross earnings in the public sector did not change significantly despite the decline in the general government sector (-0.5%), as they rose in public corporations (0.4%). The decline in government sector earnings was a result of austerity measures that had entered into force in June. In year-on-year terms, this sector's earnings were down 3.5% in the first half of the year, mainly as a consequence of last year's decline under the ZUJF. Following July's deflation, consumer prices were up 0.3% in August, and up 2.2% year-on-year. As a result of the increase in VAT, July's deflation was less pronounced than usual at this time of the year. The transfer of higher VAT into retail prices was limited, but we cannot exclude the possibility that by the end of the year prices may also change in some other groups where the transfer has not yet been observed. The situation in the domestic banking system continues to deteriorate. In July the stock of loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined by over EUR 240 m, the largest fall this year. Roughly 80% of the decline was attributable to further corporate and NFI deleveraging. Debt repayments by households also increased, while the stock of government loans stagnated. In the first seven months of the year, the stock of loans to domestic nonbanking sectors thus declined by around EUR 1.2 bn, which is five times the amount of debt repayments in the same period last year. The pressures related to the outflow of household deposits slowed in the last two months, while the banks continued to deleverage abroad. In June the deterioration of the quality of banks' assets accelerated. According to the consolidated balance of payments, the deficit of the general government sector stood at EUR 1.2 bn in the first six months of this year, which is much more than in the same period last year (EUR 850 m). The increase was largely due to lower public finance revenue (down EUR 415 m). Within expenditure, which was EUR 33 m lower year-on-year, expenditure on interest payments rose significantly (EUR 100 m). ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment Economic activity in most of Slovenia's main trading partners increased in the second quarter of this year. Euro area GDP rose by 0.3% compared with the first quarter (seasonally adjusted), but remained 0.5% lower year-on-year. A breakdown of growth in the euro area indicates that quarterly growth mainly stemmed from foreign demand (net exports), but was also, to a small extent, a result of private and government consumption for the first time after a longer period.1 Quarterly growth exceeded the European Commission's expectations in most of Slovenia's main trading partners, particularly Germany and France. Apart from foreign demand, in both countries a significant factor of growth was the recovery of domestic demand, private consumption in particular. Germany also saw a substantial increase in investment, primarily in the construction sector, but this appears to be mainly a consequence of one-off factors (long winter). Various confidence indicators (ESI, PMI, Ifo) improved further in July and August, reaching the highest values since 2011, which indicates improved prospects for the recovery in the second half of this year. Figure 1: Change in GDP in Q2 2013 and comparison with European Commission forecasts Q3 2012 «04 2012 «01 2013 «02 2013 -Q2 2013 forecast Euro area Germany France Italy Austria Source: Eurostat, European Commission forecast (May 2013). Figure 2: Ifo Business Climate and quarterly GDP growth in the euro area ^^HGDP growth (right axis) -Current situation ---------Expectations (for 6 months) ^ 160 150 140 130 o 120 110 100 90 oj 80 ^^ 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 a a a a Source: Eurostat, Ifo. In the second quarter the credit standards for euro area enterprises and households deteriorated again and loan demand continued to decrease. According to the ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, 7% more banks reported a tightening of their credit standards than an easing in the second quarter of this year (7% in the first quarter). With most of the euro area banks reporting no major liquidity problems or difficulties in access to funding, the tightening mainly reflected the banks' negative expectations regarding the recovery in individual industries (borrowers' risks) and general macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area. Enterprises continued to mainly seek loans for debt restructuring, while the demand for other loans, investment loans in particular, decreased further. The banks also reported a further deterioration in the credit standards for housing loans, while the credit standards for consumer loans improved for the first time since 2007. Household loan demand declined again in the second quarter, albeit much less than in previous quarters. Figure 3: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey for the euro area Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (left axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) -----Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) 70 70 , 50 40 30 : T3 -10 -40 E -2 40 -fE : 30 .4- C!^ O ro ^^^ -10 -20 -30 c O -40 Q ro O O Source: ECB. 1 In the second quarter the largest contribution to year-on-year growth (-0.5%) came from net exports (0.5 percentage points). The contributions of private consumption and gross capital formation were higher than in previous quarters, but still negative. The contribution of government consumption was positive again. 0 0 -p -20 -30 Uncertainty regarding the developments on euro area government bond markets declined in July and August. The required government bond yields of the majority of vulnerable countries in the euro area dropped in the last two months, while the yields of the countries with the highest credit rating of AAA rose slightly but remained very low. The stabilisation of the situation was also a result of the ECB's announcement in July that it would continue to support the recovery of the EU economy by low interest rates. -Italy Ireland Figure 4: Yields on ten-year government bonds -Slovenia - Portugal 16 to I T3 12 Spain Germany iS 8 ^^ Č3 ^^ Source:Bloomberg. Interbank interest rates in the euro area remained low in July and August. In August the three-month EURIBOR rate remained similar to that in June (0.226%), being down 11 basis points y-o-y. The three-month USD and CHF LIBOR rates also remained roughly unchanged (0.26% and 0.02%, respectively). The key interest rates of main central banks were left unchanged (ECB 0.5%, Fed 0.0%-0.25%, BoE 0.5%, BoJ 0.0%). The euro appreciated against the US dollar in August. The euro rose against the US dollar by 1.8% to USD 1.332 in August. Relative to other main world currencies, the value of the euro declined: against the British pound sterling by 0.3% to GBP 0.859 per euro, and against the Swiss franc by 0.2% to CHF 1.234 per euro. The value of the euro against the Japanese yen remained roughly the same as in July (JPY 130.36 per euro). Oil prices rose substantially in July and August, while non-energy commodity prices maintained their June levels. Brent oil price averaged USD 110.47/EUR 82.05 per barrel in August, up 7.4% and 5.4% respectively from June. Oil prices rose significantly particularly at the end of August, when they exceeded USD 115/barrel and reached the highest values in the last six months. According to the most recent IMF data, non-energy commodity prices remained almost unchanged in July, and according to preliminary data, similar developments also continued in August. Figure 5: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.8 1.6 1.4 ^ 1.2 1.0 0.6 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia After recording relatively strong growth in the first quarter, real merchandise exports remained unchanged in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted).2 In the first half of Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2012 VI 13/ V 13 VI 13/ VI 12 I-VI 13/ I-VI 12 Exports1 1.9 -0.1 -1.9 2.1 -goods 0.8 -1.2 -3.2 1.2 -services 6.7 4.9 3.7 6.1 Imports1 -2.6 -5.3 -9.4 -3.7 -goods -3.0 -7.2 -9.6 -4.0 -services -0.1 8.5 -8.2 -1.4 Industrial production -1.2 2.72 -1.53 -1.03 -manufacturing -2.4 2.72 -1.43 -1.83 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.8 10.52 -2.53 -16.73 Real turnover in retail trade -2.4 0.82 -2.43 -3.73 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -2.8 4.42 2.53 -1.33 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. 2 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 14 6 4 2 0 Box 1: GDP in Slovenia, Q2 2013 In the second quarter of this year Slovenia's GDP declined again relative to the previous quarter (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted), with its year-on-year decline (-1.7%) being smaller than in previous quarters mainly due to the base effect. GDP, having been falling quarter-on-quarter for two years, dropped by a total of 4.8% since the second quarter of 2011. Cyprus was the only EU country to see a larger quarterly decline than Slovenia in the second quarter of this year, according to the available data.1 As the decline had deepened in the second quarter of last year, the year-on-year fall in GDP in the second quarter of this year was smaller than in previous quarters largely due to the base effect. Once again the largest contribution to the year-on-year contraction in GDP came from household consumption,2 which was down 2.0% year-on-year. Its smaller year-on-year decline than in the previous four quarters is partly related to the base effect, but it is also a result of increased purchases of durable goods in anticipation of the VAT increase. The continuation of unfavourable developments was already indicated by short-term indicators of consumption, with labour market conditions remaining tight (13% registered unemployment rate in the second quarter) and consumer confidence deteriorating again. The year-on-year decline in government consumption (-3.1%) was more pronounced than in preceding quarters, while the fall in gross fixed capital formation (-3.0%) was similar to that in the first quarter. The smaller year-on-year decline in gross fixed capital formation in the first half of the year than last year was a consequence of larger purchases of investment equipment abroad. A positive contribution to the year-on-year change in GDP again came only from exports (2.0%), but they declined relative to the previous quarter. Broken down by activities, the most pronounced year-on-year decline in value added continued to be recorded in the construction sector, while value added was up relative to the same period last year only in information and communication activities. The largest contribution to the year-on-year decline in value added (-1.5%) thus came from the construction sector (-0.6 percentage points) again. Value added in manufacturing also dropped again year-on-year (-2.9%), as did value added in public services (-2.0%), for the second time in a row. In market services, the year-on-year decline deepened only in financial and insurance activities. Figure 6: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners —♦—Slovenia -Germany ---------France ----Italy -Austria ---------Croatia Figure 7: GDP expenditure structure, Slovenia I Private consumption I Gross fixed capital formation I Exports of goods and services -Real GDP growth (right axis) ^■Government consumption f^fWWlCh. in inventories and valuables Imports of goods and services 8 ; 6 ! 4 ......^ 2 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. -4 ° 4 ej -6 -8 -10 -12 a a a Source: SURS. 1 Data are available for 23 countries. 2 According to the first annual estimate released by SURS, household consumption was also the main reason for the 0.2 percentage point larger decline in GDP in 2012 than according to the first data. GDP thus fell by 2.5% last year. According to the new data, household consumption declined by 4.8% last year (previously -2.9%), having contributed -2.7 percentage points to the total GDP decline (previously -1.7 percentage points). On the other hand, net exports contributed 3.8 percentage points (previously 3.3 percentage points). the year real merchandise exports were up 1.5% year-on-year. This year's year-on-year growth is still mainly driven by exports of pharmaceuticals and trading with oil derivatives, with the largest negative contributions still coming from exports of motor vehicles and metals. Given that in the first half of the year exports to the euro area remained similar to those in the same period last year, total export growth continues to rely on growth in exports to Russia and some other rapidly growing economies. 0 2 Figure 8: Nominal exports of five largest industries 3 -Mnf. of motor vehicles (12.2) -Mnf. of basic pharm. products and prep. (9.9) -----Mnf. of electrical equipment (11.4) ■ Mnf. of machinery and equipment n.e.c (9.7) -----Mnf. of chemical, chem. Products (7.8) ^^ ji ^^ ^^ ji ^^ ji ^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. After recording strong growth in the first quarter, real merchandise imports declined in the second quarter (-0.7%, seasonally adjusted).4 In the first half of the year real merchandise imports were down 0.9% year-on-year. That this year's import developments are less unfavourable than last year is largely a consequence of year-on-year growth in imports of investment goods related to the construction of an energy facility. Imports of consumer goods are also up year-on-year, mainly due to the extremely large imports of passenger cars in April. On the other hand, the decline in imports of intermediate goods is much more pronounced this year than it was in 2012 due to lower imports of fuels. Figure 9: Breakdown of imports by end-use product groups -Investment goods -----Intermediate goods -Consumer goods 110 ICS !? 100 is 9S 90 8S r^ 80 ^ 7S 70 6C 60 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. After several quarters of growth, nominal exports of services declined in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted).6 In the second quarter exports of services, having been rising almost without interruption since the end of 2009, fell at the quarterly level primarily due to lower exports of business services, which had the largest impact on the dynamics of total services exports in the last three quarters (seasonally adjusted). In the second quarter exports of business services were almost a quarter larger than in the same period last year, according to the original data. Together with exports of construction and communications services, they made the largest contribution to the otherwise slower year-on-year growth in exports of total services (5.4%). On the other hand, growth declined most notably due to lower exports of transport services, and exports of the group of personal, cultural and recreation services, while exports of travel services remained similar to those in the same period last year. Figure 10: Breakdown of nominal change in services exports 10 ■ Other ■ Travel ► Total (right axis) I Other business services Transport Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Source: BS. After last year's growth, nominal imports of services declined again in the second quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted).7 After imports of all main groups of services fell in the first quarter, imports of transport services and the group of other services continued to decline in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted).8 Total imports were down 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, primarily due to a year-on-year fall in imports of licences, patents and copyrights and imports of transport services. The decline was mitigated by strong year-on-year growth in imports of construction and communication services. 3 These five industries account for more than half of total merchandise exports. 4 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 56 According to the balance of payments statistics. 7 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we place communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for just over a tenth of services exports and almost a third of services imports. 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 2 -4 -4 Figure TT: Breakdown of nominal change in services imports I Other ■Construction ■ Other business services ■Travel ■ Transport ♦Total (right axis) 8 2 -2 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Source: BS. 8 6 4 2 ^^ 0 -4 -6 -8 Having grown in the first quarter, manufacturing output remained almost unchanged in the second. After recording strong growth in the first quarter, manufacturing output rose slightly again in medium-low-technology industries, while remaining approximately the same in low-, medium-high- and high-technology industries (seasonally adjusted). Manufacturing output was down year-on-year again in the second quarter (-1.5%, working-day adjusted). In the first half of the year it was 1.8% lower than in the same period last year. In the first six months manufacturing output declined year-on-year in all low-technology and most medium-low- and medium-high- and high-technology industries (other than the metal, chemical and pharmaceutical industries and the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment). Manufacturing output in the EU was also down year-on- Figure 12: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity —0— Low-technology industries -Medium-low-technology industries -----Medium-high- and high-technology industries - Total year in the first half of 2013 (-1.4%, working-day adjusted), but the output in Slovenia still lags behind the 2008 level almost twice as much (13.3 percentage points) as the average output in the EU (7.1 percentage points). Sales revenues in manufacturing also remained down year-on-year in the second quarter. Revenues from sales on the domestic market, where the majority of revenues of low-technology industries is created, remained lower year-on-year in the second quarter, despite growth (seasonally adjusted, for the first time since the first quarter of 2011). In the first six months they were down 6.1% on the same period last year. Revenues on the foreign market (where medium-low-technology industries and particularly industries of higher technology intensity generate the bulk of their revenues) were roughly the same year-on-year in the second quarter. In the first half of the year they were down 0.7% compared with the same period last year. Revenues from sales outside the euro area (4.2%) were up year-on-year in the first six months, while revenues from sales on the euro area market remained down relative to the same period last year(-3.5%). Figure 13: Sales revenues in manufacturing according to geographical orientation —♦—Domestic market -Foreign market a a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity was up in the second quarter. The value of construction put in place increased by 3.9% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted). Notwithstanding quarterly growth, construction activity was still 10.6% lower in the second quarter than in the same period last year, but the decline was much smaller than in previous quarters. At the quarterly level the construction of non-residential buildings picked up, but remained substantially lower than a year earlier. In year-on-year terms, the smallest decline was recorded in civil engineering works. o o o o o o Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 6 4 0 -4 -6 -8 Figure 14: Value of construction output, seasonally adjusted Figure 15: Total floor area of buildings planned by building permits issued, in the last four quarters 2,800,000 2,400,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 800,000 400,000 Non-residential buildings Residential buildings a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. a a Source: SURS. The value of the stock of contracts in construction was up 17.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. The largest increase was recorded for civil-engineering works, where the value of this indicator was half higher than in the same period last year - in our assessment, mainly on account of contracts related to the construction of municipal infrastructure co-financed by EU funds. The stock of contracts in this construction segment was even larger than before the crisis. In the construction of non-residential buildings, the stock of contracts remained roughly the same as a year earlier, which is still approximately half lower than before the crisis. In the recent period the stock of contracts for residential construction has fallen significantly, to less than a fifth of the pre-crisis figure. Altogether 974 building permits for dwellings were issued in the second quarter of 2013, 19.5% more than in the same period last year. Having more than halved in previous years, the number of dwellings planned by the building permits issued has increased slightly in the recent period. In the last four quarters it rose by 10.4% overall, as a result of a higher number of single-dwelling buildings (+19.0%), while the number of building permits issued for multi-dwelling buildings dropped further (-13.0%) to less than a fifth of that in 2008. The confidence indicator in the construction sector rose substantially in August, reaching the highest level since October2008. Having hit its low in 2010 and risen slightly in 2011 and 2012, the confidence indicator value is picking up faster this year. It also rose strongly in August and reached the highest value since October 2008. In the last year the indicator value has increased most notably in civil-engineering works, having also strengthened in the other two construction segments (the construction of buildings and specialised construction works). The trade sector activity in the second quarter was influenced by higher sales in anticipation of the VAT increase. Given the increased sales before the VAT rate rise, particularly of durable and semi-durable goods, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles increased more strongly in the second quarter (by a tenth), but turnover in retail trade nevertheless dropped slightly (seasonally adjusted). Following the decline in the previous two quarters, turnover in wholesale trade rose as well, being also somewhat higher year-on-year. Figure 16: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ----- of which automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. 105 95 85 a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Turnover in retail trade strengthened only in stores selling non-food products. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels declined slightly in the second quarter, being also down year-on-year due to smaller quantities of automotive fuels sold, which was a consequence of lower demand and excise duty policy. Turnover in the sale of food, 0 90 Č 80 75 70 Box 2: Road and rail freight transport volumes Recording strong growth in the first quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted), the volume of road and rail freight transport almost reached the 2008 level again. The falling of the road freight transport volume in 2012 was, in addition to the contraction in economic activity, a result of bankruptcies (restructuring) of large transport carriers, which sold their fleet in auctions. With considerable fluctuations in the volumes of goods transported by legal and natural persons in the last two quarters, the tendency towards an increase in goods carried by legal persons and a decline in goods carried by natural persons continued. The 3.6% rise in transport of goods by road in the first quarter was mainly attributable to increased international transport (up 5.4%; national transport down 11.9%). In the first quarter of 2013 rail freight transport strengthened by the same rate as road freight transport (3.6%, seasonally adjusted). Both road and rail freight transport have thus almost reached the average levels recorded in the pre-crisis year 2008. beverages and tobacco products was also down on a year earlier, reflecting continued consumer caution, changes in buying behaviour8 and a further shift to discount stores. Turnover in the sale of non-food products rose after two years of decline.9 The sale in stores selling furniture, construction material, computer and telecommunication equipment, books, sports equipment and toys thus increased after declining in the previous year. In most market services (other than trade)^" nominal turnover rose for the second quarter in a row (seasonally adjusted) and in some of them it was also higher year-on-year. The majority of turnover is still generated by the transportation and storage sector, the only main services category to exceed the average level in 2008. In transportation and storage activities turnover rose by 0.2% in the second quarter. At the quarterly level, turnover strengthened most notably (by 5.7%) in other business services, where it was also nearly a tenth higher year-on-year. Besides strong growth in turnover in employment services, this year other business services also recorded growth in turnover in travel agencies, which had been previously mainly falling for more than two years. Within the information and communication services, in the second quarter turnover rose in computer programming, though it was still lower than before the crisis, while turnover in telecommunication services has been declining slightly in the last two years.11 Turnover Figure 17: Road and rail freight transport volumes 8 Switching from name brands to lower-priced store brands, mainly purchasing products on sale and promotions, shopping in several stores. 9 Except for the third quarter of 2012. 10 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 11 Prices in these activities have also been declining in recent years, so that, for the most part, turnover did not fall in real terms. In the first and the second quarters prices in telecommunication activities were thus down 3.9% and 2.0%, respectively. 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 <5 3,800 j^' 3,700 c 3,600 c (D 3,500 j= 3,400 - Road transport (left axis) -Rail transport (right axis) 1,200 1,100 1,000|^ 900 Ji 800 700 600 500 400 300 O O O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 18: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) - Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional, technical activ. (M) Accommodation and food service activities ( a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. in legal and accounting services otherwise fell, but was still stagnating just below the 2008 level, while turnover in engineering services related to construction recorded only three quarters of the pre-crisis level. Turnover in accommodation and food service activities rose somewhat after the decline in the previous four quarters, but was still much lower year-on-year. After improving in previous months, the value of the sentiment indicator remained unchanged in August. Having increased in the second quarter, in the last two months confidence remained almost unchanged in most activities. Only the confidence indicator in retail trade deteriorated in August, while the confidence in the construction sector and consumer confidence improved but remained lowest. Figure 19: Business trends - Economic sentiment • Retail trade - Construction ra 20 ■f---t......f.....|"-i......1......1.....1......1 ■i---i......i.....i--4......j......4.....]......I Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market The situation on the labour market remained tight in the second quarter. The number of employed persons according to the statistical register,12 having fallen noticeably in the first quarter, did not change significantly in the second (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted) and was 2.9% lower year-on-year. Employment remained 10.1% lower than in the second quarter of 2008. In the second quarter Figure 20: Persons in employment by activity OQ2 2012 103 2012 104 2012 HOI 2013 102 2013 Public services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. the number of persons in formal employment fell relatively most notably in manufacturing and public services, while it rose in the construction sector for the first time since 2008, in our assessment as a consequence of improved business expectations in this sector. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) also shows a much smaller decline in the number of employed persons in the second quarter (down 0.2%, seasonally adjusted) than in the first. The LFS figures indicate a substantial increase in self-employment, which is estimated to be mainly a result of informal forms of employment, as the number of self-employed persons according to the statistical register increased only marginally. The registered and LFS unemployment rates (13.1% and 10.6% respectively, seasonally adjusted) have remained unchanged for several months. The increase in registered unemployment in recent months was less pronounced than at the beginning of the year. The number of registered unemployed persons was up 1.7% in the second quarter, seasonally adjusted, and up 10.9% year-on-year. At the end of July it rose by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) to 117,143. In the first seven months 6,963 persons registered anew, 13.0% more than in the same period last year, which is mainly a result of larger inflows of those who lost fixed-term employment (5,102 persons or 18.6%) and first-time job-seekers (2,248 persons or 44.3%). The outflow from the unemployment register was 3.4% (2,023 persons) larger than in the same period last year, primarily due to a larger number of people who found work (5,138 persons or 14.5%), where increased government involvement by the implementation of public works played a significant role (1,552 persons or 57.7%). The number of self-employed persons was also up (611 persons or 28.5%), but fewer persons were Table2: Indicators of labour market trends 12 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. in % 2012 VI 13/ V 13 VI 13/ VI 12 I-VI 13/ I-VI 12 Labour force -1.5 -0.1 -0.9 -1.3 Persons in formal employment -1.7 0.0' -2.4 -2.8 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -1.6 0.2 -2.8 -3.3 Registered unemployed -0.5 0.2^ 10.4 9.7 Average nominal gross wage 0.1 0.2- -0.4 -0.7 - private sector 0.5 0.1' 0.0 0.1 - public sector -0.9 -0.8^ -0.9 -2.0 -of which general government -2.2 -0.5^ -2.0 -3.5 2012 VI 12 V 13 VI 13 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.0 11.8 13.1 13.1 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,525.47 1,519.12 1,520.08 1,516.82 Private sector (in EUR) 1,395.84 1,377.90 1,400.93 1,394.00 Public sector (in EUR) 1,762.88 1,776.84 1,736.33 1,739.78 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,761.15 1,787.41 1,721.15 1,725.77 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by II Note: 1seasonally adjusted. Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in '000 Change in Number 2012 VI 12 V 13 VI 13 2012/ 2011 VI 13/ V 13 VI 13/ VI 12 I-VI 13/ I-VI 12 Manufacturing 182.9 183.8 177.7 177.7 -1,919 24 -6,119 -6,641 Construction 59.8 61.4 54.8 55.2 -8,047 398 -6,208 -7,757 Market services 338.4 339.5 333.3 333.6 -3,805 342 -5,911 -7,503 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 107.8 108.3 103.7 103.8 -1,848 72 -4,535 -3,863 Public services 171.6 172.6 170.5 170.7 1,438 159 -1,916 -1,967 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 50.7 51.2 49.3 49.4 -650 65 -1,773 -1,721 Education 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.5 778 -139 -210 -317 Human health and social work activities 55.4 55.7 55.5 55.7 1,311 233 67 71 Other 57.3 58.4 59.2 59.3 -1,632 136 917 1,347 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 21: Employed persons according to the statistical register and registered unemployed -Employed according to the statistical register (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Table 4: Earnings by activity 40 deregistered from the unemployment register for failure to comply with obligations (2,993 persons or 25.5%), which is, in our estimate, also a consequence of a less restrictive approach to the deregistration of unemployed. There were also fewer transitions into inactivity (904 persons or 11.7%). In the second quarter the average gross earnings per employee remained practically unchanged (0.1%, seasonally adjusted), having maintained a similar level since the third quarter of last year, when they had declined in the public sector with the adoption of the ZUJF. The average gross earnings in the private sector,13 which otherwise rose slightly in the second quarter (0.2%), have been almost unchanged for the last one and half years.14 The gross earnings in the public sector also remained basically unchanged in the second quarter (-0.1%), having dropped further in the government sector (-0.5%) and risen in public corporations (0.4%). Government sector earnings fell as a result of the new austerity measures that had entered into force in June.15 The decline was primarily a consequence of a linear reduction in wages Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2012 VI2013 2012/2011 VI 13/ V 13 VI 13/ VI 12 I-VI 13/ I-VI 12 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,463.64 1,435.96 0.8 -2.1 0.1 0.2 Industry (B-E) 1,444.29 1,435.01 2.5 -2.1 1.7 2.3 - of which manufacturing 1,397.25 1,386.84 2.5 -2.6 2.0 2.3 Construction 1,205.65 1,175.88 -2.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.2 Traditional services (G-I) 1,354.04 1,328.75 0.3 -2.0 -0.5 -0.4 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,713.36 1,648.84 -0.3 -2.5 -1.6 -1.7 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,710.91 1,672.68 -2.2 -1.1 -1.8 -3.3 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,752.03 1,722.43 -1.8 -0.9 -1.0 -2.2 - Education 1,676.80 1,627.86 -3.3 -0.9 -2.5 -4.8 - Human health and social work activities 1,712.37 1,680.53 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 13 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on earnings in the private sector and public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government), and only exceptionally on earnings in activities of the private sector and in public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sector. 14 The growth rates in 2010 and 2011 were impacted particularly by the increase in the minimum wage and changes in employment structure. 15 Agreement on further measures in the field of salaries and other labour costs in the public sector aiming to balance public finances in the period from 1 June 2013 to 31 December 2014, Official Gazette, No. 46/13. Figure 22: Average gross earnings per employee -Total -----Private sector -Public sector ----of which, general government sector ---------of which, public corporations_ a a Source: SURS. and wage scale compression and, partly, the abolition of the increased seniority bonus paid to women with more than 25 years of service, a reduction in the allowance for specialisation and master's and doctoral studies (by half) and a cut in sickness benefits (from 90% to 80%). In the first half of the year the gross earnings in the government sector declined by 3.5% year-on-year (the decline in the public sector was somewhat smaller due to a 1.4% increase of earnings in public corporations), while the gross earnings in the private sector remained similar to last year. Prices Following July's deflation, consumer prices were up 0.3% in August. In the first eight months of this year prices increased by 1.4% (last year by 1.8%). Year-on-year price growth in August was 2.2%; in the euro area 1.3% according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Consumer prices fell in July, as expected, but deflation (-0.3%) was less pronounced than usual at this time of the year due to higher VAT. July's price developments were, in addition to the usual seasonal factors, marked by the effects of tax policy measures, given that the rise in the reduced and standard VAT rates became effective at the beginning of the month. This was reflected particularly in higher prices of energy, tobacco products and some other goods and services. In contrast to previous changes, the transfer of the VAT increase to retail prices was less pronounced (0.5 percentage points, SURS data), though we cannot exclude the possibility that by the end of the year prices may also rise in other groups where the transfer has not yet been seen. The year-on-year price growth in July (2.6%) was mainly attributable to higher prices of food, unprocessed food in particular (0.7 percentage points), and higher Table5: Breakdown of the HICP into sub-groups - July 2013 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 1.0 100.0 1.0 0.2 100.0 0.2 Goods -0.3 65.7 -0.2 -0.7 57.7 -0.4 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 1.5 16.1 0.2 1.4 12.0 0.2 Non-processed food 6.9 7.4 0.5 2.6 7.3 0.2 Non-energy industrial goods -4.2 27.9 -1.2 -3.3 27.4 -0.9 Durables -1.1 9.7 -0.1 -1.0 8.8 -0.1 Non-durables 0.6 8.8 0.1 0.7 8.0 0.1 Semi-durables -11.4 9.4 -1.1 -7.7 10.5 -0.8 Energy 2.3 14.4 0.3 0.6 11.0 0.1 Electricity for households 12.8 2.7 0.3 3.1 2.6 0.1 Natural gas -0.7 1.1 0.0 -0.4 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating -2.4 1.5 0.0 -2.6 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels 2.2 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 District heating -1.2 0.9 0.0 -1.4 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 0.3 7.4 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.0 Services 3.2 34.3 1.1 1.5 42.3 0.6 Services - dwellings 5.3 3.0 0.2 1.7 10.3 0.2 Services - transport 2.9 5.8 0.2 2.4 7.2 0.2 Services - communications 1.3 3.5 0.0 -2.7 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 4.6 13.9 0.6 2.2 14.7 0.3 Services - other services 1.1 8.1 0.1 0.1 7.1 0.0 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.3 78.2 0.2 -0.1 81.7 -0.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification Box 3: Price level indices for household final consumption expenditure on goods and services in EU Member States, 2012 In 2012 the price level for goods and services for household final consumption in Slovenia remained lower than the EU average in comparison with 2011. Based on the first estimates of purchasing power parities (PPPs) for 2012, Eurostat released the first short-term estimate of price level indices for household final consumption expenditure on goods and services in 37 EU countries in June this year. The price level for consumer goods and services remained highest in Denmark (42.0% above the EU average), while the lowest prices were recorded in south-eastern European countries (45.0% below the EU average). The price level in Slovenia in 2012 is estimated at 85% of the EU average, which is approximately 1 percentage point lower than in the preceding year. Prices of semi-durable goods were closest to the EU average, in particular prices of clothing and footwear, which reached 97% of the average and whose level rose compared with that in 2011. The level of durable goods prices dropped slightly relative to 2011; prices of household appliances and data processing equipment were above the euro area average, while prices of furniture and other equipment were 14% below the euro area average. The lowest price levels were still recorded for services (77% of the EU average). Figure 23: Price level indices for household final consumption expenditure on goods and services in EU Member States, 2012 Source: Eurostat. Figure 24: Price level indices for individual groups of goods and services for household consumption in Slovenia (EU-27=100) Public services (government) I Services Capital goods Durable goods Semi-durable | goods Non-durable goods -1- ■ 2011 ■ 2012 20 40 60 80 Price level index (EU-27=100) Source: Eurostat. 100 120 Figure 25: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 8 -Siovenia HICP Siovenia HICP -core inflation - Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation price rises in services, whose contribution to year-on-year growth increased (1.1 percentage points) and was mainly due to the impact of one-off factors16 as a result of economic policy measures. Year-on-year inflation was also impacted by higher energy prices (0.5 percentage points), which were up 4.1% relative to the same period a year earlier, with the largest contribution coming from higher prices of electricity and liquid fuels. Long-term inflation dynamics in Slovenia and in the euro area remain marked by weak economic activity. Inflationary pressures are low, which is also reflected in core inflation movements. Modest growth in industrial producer prices continues. Domestic producer prices on the domestic market fell slightly year-on-year in the second quarter (-0.3%). Similar price dynamics were also seen on other markets (-0.2%). The movements of industrial producer prices on domestic and foreign markets were mainly impacted by 16 Abolition of the subsidy on school meals contributed 0.5 percentage points to year-on-year growth; an increase in the annual road user charges 0.2 percentage points; a reduction in the subsidy for the second child in a family attending kindergarten 0.1 percentage points. 0 Figure 26: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation 8 7 6 .SŽ ^ 4 Other Services Fuels and energy Food Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 27: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals, fabric. metal prod., exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) ----Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign market) 16 12 R 8 ^ 4 ^ 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 Source: SURS. higher prices of food products and lower prices of metal and metal products compared with the same period last year. Moderate dynamics were also recorded for import prices, which fell by 1.3% in the second quarter but were slightly higher than in the same period last year (0.3%). In the second quarter the price competitiveness of the economy deteriorated year-on-year again. The nominal effective exchange rate rose for the second quarter in a row due to the appreciation of the euro against most currencies of Slovenia's main trading partners. At the same time, relative17 prices also continued to grow year-on-year. In the second quarter the real effective exchange rate as measured by the HICP was therefore higher again year-on-year (up 0.8% after 0.9% growth in the first quarter). In the first half of the year Slovenia ranked around the middle of euro area countries in terms of the loss in price competitiveness. Owing to the structure of Slovenia's external trade, the strengthening of the nominal effective exchange rate was among the smallest,18 and growth in relative prices (which was also a consequence of one-off factors19) among the largest in the euro area. Figure 28: Real effective exchange rates deflated by HICP and ULC I REER ULC -HICP O O Source: ECB. Figure 29: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries in the first two quarters of 2013 5 IREER ULC (Q1 2013) IREER HICP (Q1-Q2 2013) h" Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 17 In Slovenia, in comparison with its trading partners. 18 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the appreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate (and conversely). 19 Higher prices of school meals and annual road user charges. 3 2 0 -2 The cost competitiveness of the economy improved in the first quarter due to a fall in relative unit labour costs. Nominal unit labour costs otherwise increased in the first quarter, but less than in Slovenia's main trading partners.20 Consequently, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the ULC also dropped further year-on-year in the first quarter (-2.7%). In the first quarter Slovenia ranked third in the euro area in terms of the gain in cost competitiveness as measured by the real effective exchange rate, with most other countries recording a loss. However, in view of the more pronounced losses in 2008 and 2009, Slovenia remains in the smaller group of euro area countries where cost competitiveness continues to lag behind the pre-crisis levels this year,21 despite the relatively more favourable developments in the last two years. Figure 30: Nominal unit labour costs in EU countries in the first quarter of 2013 s 4 ..... ■l-i-l.....f..4+..4-..f. i ............Illllllllll J_i_i_i_i_L_ The surplus in trade in goods and services is widening primarily on account of growth in the surplus in merchandise trade. The surplus in merchandise trade in the second quarter was mainly attributable to the contraction in imports while exports continued to grow. After having declined in the preceding four quarters, exports to EU countries were up year-on-year, while growth in exports outside the EU eased. The year-on-year increase in the services trade surplus was once again mainly due to a larger trade surplus in intermediation and other services related to trade.22 In addition, the deficits in trade in licences, patents and copyrights and in various business, professional and technical services declined substantially. Figure 31: Components of the current account balance, EUR m ^■Merchandise trade ^«Services trade ^HFactor income ^HCurrent transfers -Current account 800 E 0 cc ID iS -200 Source: Eurostat a a Source: BS. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of EUR 685.1 m in the second quarter of this year. The year-on-year widening of the surplus (by EUR 423.5 m) was primarily a result of the surplus in merchandise trade (last year a deficit), but it was also due to a somewhat wider surplus in the balance of services and a smaller deficit in factor income. The balance of current transfers deteriorated slightly. The narrowing of the current account deficit since the beginning of the crisis and the widening of the current account surplus since the first quarter of last year reflects further private sector deleveraging and limited access to foreign funding. 20 Nominal growth in unit labour cost was at 1.3%, which is lower than, on average, in the euro area and EU (2.6%) and Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU (Germany, Austria, Croatia, Italy, but also Poland and Slovakia). In real terms unit labour costs rose by 0.6%; in the euro area and EU by 0.9% (see also SEM 06 13). 21 In the first quarter a smaller group of countries (7) recorded growth in the real effective exchange rate deflated by the ULC in comparison with the 2007 average. Slovenia was sixth in terms of growth; the remaining countries (10) recorded a decline. The deficit in factor income was down year-on-year in the second quarter, while the balance of current transfers deteriorated. The higher net income from portfolio investment was impacted by smaller payments of dividends and other profits to portfolio investors. Total net payments of interest abroad were up year-on-year in the second quarter, which was, because of the borrowing via long-term bonds and tightened borrowing conditions mainly a result of higher net payments of interest of the government sector. Net interest payments of the private sector declined again, given that domestic commercial banks continue deleveraging abroad. The net inflow of income from labour increased further, mainly due to a larger number of daily migrants abroad. The surplus in the balance of current transfers was down year-on-year in the second quarter, which was, in addition to the lower net absorption of EU funds, mainly due to higher payments of contributions and taxes abroad. The deficit of private sector transfers remained similar to that in the same period last year. 22 All payments related to monetary intermediation, commission for other financial intermediation services and other costs. 14 10 8 6 2 0 Figure 32: Net interest payments by sector, EUR m IBS I General government ■ Private sector -Total a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. International financial transactions23 recorded a net outflow of EUR 853.7 m in the second quarter (EUR 254.3 m in the same period last year). The largest contribution was made by other investment, which recorded a net outflow of EUR 1,951.9 m, mainly as a result of a decline in the Bank of Slovenia's liabilities to the Eurosystem. Capital flows of direct investment recorded a net outflow of EUR 649.6 m. The majority of capital outflows resulted from the requalification of liabilities from foreign direct investment into loans from other sectors (non-affiliated companies). On the other hand, a high net inflow was recorded for portfolio investment (EUR 1,976.8 m). In May the government sector issued 5- and 10-year bonds in the total amount of USD 3.5 bn with 4.75% and 5.85% coupon rates and interest paid semi-annually. Figure 33: Financial transactions of the balance of payments I Direct investment ■ Financial derivatives -Net financial flow ■ Portfolio investment ■ Other investment a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. At the end of June Slovenia's net external debt totalled EUR 12.8 bn (36.6% of estimated GDP), down EUR 1.5 bn from December 2012. Gross external claims in debt instruments recorded EUR 27.5 bn at the end of June (78.6% of GDP), up EUR 1.0 bn from December 2012. The largest contribution to the increase was made by short-term claims of commercial banks and other sectors (currency, deposits and short-term trade credits). Gross external debt stood at EUR 40.3 bn at the end of June (115.2% of GDP), which is EUR 0.5 bn less than in December 2012. In this Table 6: Balance of payments I-VI 13, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VI 12 Current account 14,698.7 13,516.9 1,181.8 357.2 - Trade balance (FOB) 11,057.6 10,672.1 385.4 -194.1 - Services 2,498.3 1,472.3 1,026.1 861.7 - Income 457.5 610.0 -152.5 -312.6 Current transfers 685.3 762.4 -77.2 2.1 Capital and financial account 2,297.5 -4,107.3 -1,809.8 -182.1 - Capital account 127.7 -173.0 -45.4 -12.8 - Capital transfers 99.0 -155.0 -56.0 -38.4 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 28.6 -18.0 10.6 25.6 - Financial account 2,169.8 -3,934.3 -1,764.5 -169.3 - Direct investment -659.7 -51.4 -711.1 244.0 - Portfolio investment 1,844.1 264.5 2,108.7 -799.3 - Financial derivates -38.6 -171.0 -209.6 -43.7 - Other investment 976.6 -3,976.4 -2,999.9 396.8 - Assets 0.0 -1,966.1 -1,966.1 -1,561.0 - Liabilities 976.6 -2,010.3 -1,033.7 1,957.7 - Reserve assets 47.4 0.0 47.4 32.9 Net errors and omissions 628.0 0.0 628.0 -175.1 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Figure 34: Slovenia's net external debt, EUR m ^HBank of Slovenia ^MGovernment sector Private sector -Net external debt 23 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. Source: BS. Note: Positive (negative) value means net external debt (net external claims) 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 period the Bank of Slovenia's liabilities to the Eurosystem decreased, while government sector debt increased further (issue of 5- and 10-year government bonds in the total amount of USD 3.5 bn) and the external debt of domestic commercial banks declined (loan repayments and withdrawal of non-residents' deposits). Financial markets The situation in the Slovenian banking system continues to deteriorate. In July the stock of loans to domestic nonbanking sectors declined by over EUR 240 m, which was the largest fall this year. Roughly 80% of the decline was attributable to further corporate and NFI deleveraging. Households deleveraging increased as well, while the stock of government loans stagnated. In the first seven months of the year, the stock of loans to domestic nonbanking sectors thus declined by around EUR 1.2 bn already, which is roughly five times the amount of debt repayments in the same period last year. The pressures related to the outflow of household deposits eased in the last two months, while the banks continued to deleverage abroad. In June the deterioration of the quality of banks' assets accelerated. Households increased debt repayments at domestic banks. Household loans dropped by around EUR 50 m. The decline in housing loans was marginal at EUR 0.7 m, while the fall in loans for other purposes and consumer loans was between EUR 22 m and EUR 26 m. The decline in domestic-currency loans prevailed this time. In the first seven months the stock of household loans shrank by as much as EUR 220 m, which is nearly twice as much as in the same period last year. Enterprises and NFIs also made larger debt repayments at domestic banks in July (over EUR 190 m). It is still mainly enterprises that continue to repay their debts, while NFI repayments remain modest at EUR 10 m. In the first seven months of the year the stock of corporate and NFI loans declined by as much as EUR 880 m, which is almost twice the amount in the same period last year. In June enterprises and NFIs made net repayments of foreign loans for the second month in a row. Net repayments amounted to EUR 77.2 m. Almost all net repayments were a consequence of long-term deleveraging, with net repayments of short-term loans totalling less than EUR 2 m. In the first six months of the year enterprises borrowed EUR 1.1 bn net abroad, which is estimated to be related to the requalification of liabilities from direct investment into loans from non-affiliated companies and increased borrowing by one of the energy companies. The gap between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans widened more notably again in June (by more than 50 basis points) and exceeded 300 basis points, the highest level in the last three years. Figure 35: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans ■ Enterprises and NFI^ ^^BGovernment -Total ■ Households 700 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Source: BS; calculations by IM AD. Figure 36: Corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^B Short-term loans (left axis) ^^B Long-term loans (left axis) -Gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 350 200 150 -e -300 -400 50 Source: BS; calculations by IM AD. The banks continued to make net repayments of foreign liabilities in June. Total net repayments were close to EUR 280 m. The bulk of net repayments were net repayments of bonds in the amount EUR 257.1 m. Net repayments of long-term loans and deposits were smaller, while short-term loans recorded a net inflow of around EUR 10 m. The net repayments of foreign liabilities are somewhat more modest this year than they were in the previous two, amounting to EUR 1 bn in the first half of the year, which is more than a third lower than the highest level in the same period last year. 300 250 100 Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 12 31. VII 13 31. VII 13/ 30. VI 13 31. VII 13/ 31. XII 12 31. VII 13/ 31. VII 12 Loans total 31,464.6 30,304.3 -0.8 -3.7 -6.7 Enterprises and NFI 20,456.5 19,579.2 -1.0 -4.3 -9.4 Government 1,741.4 1,674.9 0.0 -3.8 8.9 Households 9,266.7 9,050.3 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 Consumer credits 2,481.8 2,362.8 -0.9 -4.8 -8.7 Lending for house purchase 5,258.9 5,247.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0 Other lending 1,526.1 1,440.0 -1.8 -5.6 -4.3 Bank deposits total 15,051.3 14,784.3 0.3 -1.8 -2.9 Overnight deposits 6,479.4 6,497.4 -0.2 0.3 -2.3 Short-term deposits 4,010.4 3,817.2 0.5 -4.8 -4.8 Long-term deposits 4,555.2 4,463.7 0.8 -2.0 -2.0 Deposits redeemable at notice 6.2 5.9 -9.9 -5.2 -20.1 Mutual funds 1,830.0 1,814.8 1.9 -0.8 -1.5 Government bank deposits, total 2,562.7 3,551.6 8.4 38.6 59.5 Overnight deposits 196.6 388.1 63.9 97.4 162.6 Short-term deposits 828.5 1,594.4 5.7 92.5 259.9 Long-term deposits 1,537.0 1,523.6 -0.1 -0.9 -6.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 0.5 45.5 571.5 8.256.4 1.808.8 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 37: Net repayments of foreign liabilities by domestic banks 2,000 -.-1-^- 1,500 1,000 0 -1,000 -1,500 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total the most. In the first seven months government deposits at commercial banks rose by around EUR 1 bn, which has to do with the issue of bonds, while in the same period last year they had fallen by around EUR 620 m. The deterioration in the quality of banks' total assets is accelerating. In June the amount of bad claims24 in the Slovenian banking system increased more notably, by as much as around EUR 340 m. Nearly three fifths of this significant increase was attributable to the deterioration Figure 38: Share of bad and non-performing claims and creation of impairments and provisions in the Slovenian banking system ^■impairments and provisions (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) 400 Share of bad claims (right axis)_ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The stock of household and government deposits at banks rose in July. Household deposits were up more than EUR 40 m. Deposits with agreed maturity increased this time, both short-term and, even slightly more, long-term deposits, which contributed to a somewhat more favourable maturity structure of household deposits. Despite the inflows in the last two months, household deposits were still almost EUR 270 m lower at the end of July than at the end of last year, while in the first seven months of last year they had increased by around EUR 130 m. The stock of government deposits grew by around EUR 270 m in July, with overnight and short-term deposits having increased 450 420 390 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 E5 Ji :5 :5 Source: BS; calculations by iMAD. 24 Claims rated C, D and E. in the quality of claims in financial services and manufacturing, while the deterioration in the quality of claims in construction has been slowing in recent months. The share of bad claims thus rose by 1 percentage point to 16.2%, which is the largest increase thus far. The banks created EUR 123.4 m in additional impairments and provisions in July, and EUR 559.1 m in the first seven months, which is roughly the same amount as in the same period last year. Public finance The deficit of the general government sector25 stood at EUR 1.2 bn in the first six months of this year, which is much more than in the same period last year (EUR 850 m). The increase was largely due to lower general government revenue (down EUR 415 m). Expenditure was reduced by EUR 33 m, despite higher payments of interest. Figure 39: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure - Cjenetral c)overnment revenue,total -General government expenditure, total 16.5 16.0 12 E 14.5 14.0 o ^ — Source: MF; calcel ations by IMAD. The year-on-year decline in general government revenue was a consequence of lower tax revenues and social security contributions. In the first six months tax revenues were down year-on-year in all main categories (by EUR 305 m, -6.7% year-on-year). Revenue from corporate income tax dropped the most (by EUR 218 m), which was, under significantly worse economic conditions, also a result of changes to the tax system.26 The share of corporate 25 According to the cash flow methodology. The consolidated balance includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). 26 Under the Act Amending the Corporate Income Tax Act (2012), the nominal corporate income tax rate was reduced from 20% to 18% in 2012 (2 percentage points) and further to 17% in 2013. The most important change affecting revenue was increasing tax allowances. The investment allowance was raised in particular (from 30% to 40%) and at the same time the limit for investment allowance up to EUR 30,000 was abolished. The allowance for R&D investment was increased from 40% to 100%. income tax in total revenues thus fell from 4% to just 1% year-on-year. Revenue from value added tax (EUR 84 m) was also down in the first six months, as were revenues from personal income tax (EUR 46 m) and particularly social security contributions (EUR 127 m). The inflows of EU funds were also lower year-on-year, but the total decline in revenue was mitigated slightly by growth in non-tax revenues. Despite higher interest payments, general government expenditure was down slightly year-on-year in the first six months (-0.4%). Expenditure (excluding interest payments) declined by 1.8% in this period. As a result of the Fiscal Balance Act and the Agreement on Further Measures in the Field of Salaries and Other Labour Costs in the Public Sector, expenditure on wages and salaries and employers' social contributions declined the most year-on-year in the first six months (EUR 96 m). Expenditure on goods and services, capital expenditure and capital transfers and transfers to individuals and households were also down relative to the same period last year (by EUR 56 m, EUR 52 m and EUR 35 m, respectively). All categories of transfers to individuals and households declined (with the exception of pensions), most notably family benefits, parental compensation and scholarships. Growth in pension expenditure (EUR 56 m) was largely a result of a higher number of beneficiaries. Interest payments (EUR 100 m) were higher year-on-year, and their share in total revenue rose by 1.2 percentage points to 7.5% relative to the same period last year. Some other expenditure categories increased as well, exceeding last year's level by a total of EUR 90 m (expenditure paid from funds for current budgetary reserve, subsidies, payments into the EU budget and transfers to non-profit institutions). In June and July Slovenia received EUR 90.1 m from and paid EUR 67.1 m into the EU budget, so that its net budgetary position was positive again (EUR 9.7 m in June and EUR 13.4 m in July). The bulk of receipts came from Structural Funds (EUR 64.5 m). The receipts from the Cohesion Fund amounted to EUR 10.7 m, the same as the receipts for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 10.7 m). Other receipts stood at EUR 4.2 m. In the first seven months as a whole Slovenia received EUR 441.9 m from the EU budget, 37.3% of the level envisaged in the budget for 2013, and paid EUR 295.8 m into the EU budget, 71.4% of the total amount planned for this year. In the first seven months of this year its net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive at EUR 146.1 m (EUR 202.5 m in the same period of last year). Almost half (45.2%) of all receipts were from Structural Funds (32.0% of the level planned), while the funds under the Agricultural and Fisheries Policies accounted for 42.1% of all receipts and had the highest absorption rate with regard to plans (62.2%). Receipts from the Cohesion Fund represent 10.4% of all received funds (19.9% absorption rate). 17.5 15.0 Table 8: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % VI2013/VI 2012 I-VI 2013/I-VI 2012 I-VI 2012 I-VI 2013 I-VI 13 General government revenue - total -7.5 -5.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax -29.7 -77.7 3.8 0.9 -0.1 Personal income tax 5.4 -4.3 14.6 14.8 14.2 Value added tax -4.7 -5.8 19.6 19.6 20.4 Excise duties -7.7 -3.8 9.3 9.5 10.0 Social security contributions -4.0 -4.7 36.5 36.9 36.8 Other general government revenues -23.4 7.3 16.1 18.3 18.7 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2012 2013 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VI 13 v mio EUR I-VI 13/I-VI 12 Revenue - total 14,999.1 42.3 0.1 6,915.1 -5.7 - Tax revenues 13,118.3 37.0 -0.7 6,054.2 -6.7 - Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 7.5 -2.5 1,088.0 -19.6 - Social security contributions 5,244.1 14.8 -0.4 2,548.3 -4.7 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,876.1 13.7 0.4 2,263.9 -2.8 - Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 2.4 3.7 396.7 -2.9 Expenditure - total 16,125.7 45.5 -2.5 8,151.2 -0.4 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,184.7 9.0 -4.4 1,836.0 -5.0 - Purchases of goods and services 2,373.0 6.7 -2.9 1,133.2 -4.7 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 647.9 1.8 23.0 614.3 19.7 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 18.0 -2.3 3,163.0 -1.1 - Capital expenditure 915.0 2.6 -10.6 288.1 -16.4 - Capital transfers 319.9 0.9 -14.0 95.3 4.4 - Payment to the EU budget 390.3 1.1 -3.7 262.4 5.6 Deficit -1,122.8 -3.2 -28.2 -1,236.1 44.9 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. Figure 40: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2013 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2012 ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-July) Total receipts in 2012 (January-December) Common Agricultural Policy 200 300 400 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Social protection expenditure - 2011 27 Growth in social protection expenditure slowed further in 2011, while in real terms expenditure stagnated at the previous year's level. After the strong growth of over 7% in 2008 and 2009, growth in expenditure slowed substantially in 2010 and 2011. A total of EUR 8,992 m was spent on social protection schemes in 2011, 1.8% more than in 2010 (in 2010 growth was at 3.1%). In spite of the larger number of beneficiaries, the slowdown in expenditure growth was mainly due to fiscal consolidation measures of the government.28 The largest contribution to growth came from expenditure on old age, which accounts for the bulk of social protection funds and rose by 1.9% in real terms in 2011. The increase was largely a consequence of a growing number of pensioners, which was up 3.1% in 2011. With a further deterioration in labour market conditions, expenditure on unemployment continued to rise rapidly in 2011 (up 20.1% in real terms). The growth of expenditure on unemployment was attributable to a 19.2% larger number of unemployment benefit beneficiaries and a rise in benefits under the Labour Market Regulation Act. Expenditure on family and children also expanded in 2011 (1.8% in real terms), while expenditure on all other functions declined in real terms. In our assessment, the falling in expenditure on social exclusion not elsewhere classified following the strong growth in the previous two years could also be related to the adoption of new social legislation in this area, which introduced changes in the eligibility criteria. In 2011 social protection expenditure as a share of GDP remained basically unchanged from the previous year, but it has increased significantly since the outbreak of the crisis. We estimate that the increase in the share of expenditure during the crisis (by 3.5 percentage points) was a result of a decline in GDP (by 2.9% in nominal terms) and other consequences of the economic crisis. The largest portion of social protection expenditure is earmarked for the old age function, 9.8% of GDP. This expenditure otherwise also increased the most in 2008-2011 due to the ageing of the population (increase in the number of pensioners. The breakdown of expenditure by social protection function has not changed significantly over the years. Expenditure on old age continued to account for the largest share in 2011 (40%), having increased further in the last years owing to demographic changes.29 Alongside the share of expenditure on old age, the share of expenditure on unemployment has also expanded since the beginning of the economic crisis. On the other hand, the share of expenditure on sickness and health care declined the most in the same period, but still represented almost a third of total expenditure. Among the sources of funding, the share of general government contributions increased further in 2011. The share of general government contributions thus rose to 34.4%, which is 1.2 percentage points more than in 2010, and 5.3 percentage points more than in 2008. The increase in the general government share is partly due to the economic crisis, as certain budget expenses rose substantially during the crisis (such as unemployment benefits). The share of employers' social contributions Table 11: Expenditure by function, 2008-2011, % 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sickness/health care 33.7 33 32.4 31.8 Disability 7.9 7.3 7.2 6.9 Old age 38.5 38.8 39.4 40.0 Survivors 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.7 Family/children 8.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 Unemployment 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.3 Housing 0 0 0 0.0 Social exclusion not elsewhere classified 2 2.1 2.4 2.3 Table 10: Social protection expenditure, 2008-2011 nominal growth, % GDP, % 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 Social protection expenditure, total* 8.1 7.6 3.1 1.8 21.4 24.1 24.8 24.9 Social benefits 8.3 7.9 3.1 2.1 20.9 23.6 24.3 24.4 1. Sickness/health care 13.4 5.7 1.2 0.2 7.0 7.8 7.9 7.8 2. Disability 4.6 0.5 1.8 -3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 3. Old age 5.7 8.7 4.5 3.7 8.0 9.2 9.6 9.8 4. Survivors 9.2 5.3 -2.6 -0.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 5. Family/children 10.9 12.4 3.5 3.6 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 6. Unemployment -4.1 48.2 13.9 22.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 7. Housing -20 -25 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 Social exclusion not elsewhere classified -4.8 13.2 15 -1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *Total social protection expenditure is the sum of social benefits, administration costs and other expenditure. 27 SURS released the first (provisional) data on expenditure and receipts of social protection schemes for 2011 on 23 July 2013. Larger changes to the system of social protection expenditure became effective in 2012 and will be visible in data only next year. 28 In 2010 because of a half lower indexation of social transfers and pensions and measures to rationalise health care, and in 2011 because of only a quarter of full indexation of growth in social transfers and pensions. 29 According to the ESSPROS data, there were 629,544 pension beneficiaries in Slovenia in 2011, just over 3% more than a year earlier. Source: SURS. (26.2%) and the share of contributions paid by protected persons (38.3%), together accounting for almost two thirds of receipts for social protection schemes, remained at almost the same level as in 2010. In comparison with 2008, the shares of contributions of protected persons and employers' contributions declined (by 3.2 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively), mainly on account of a decline in the number of employed persons. Figure 41: Structure of social protection receipts, 2008-2011 ■ Employers' social contributions ■ Social contributions by the protected persons ■ General government contributions ^^^ ■ Other receipts 90 80 70 60 JE 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 Source: SURS. 2011 OECD well-being indicators In June 2013 the OECD released the Better Life Index (BLI) again, which shows that Slovenia improved its ranking slightly relative to 2011. The Better Life Index covers 11 dimensions that are described by 24 well-being indicators. Most indicators are based on statistical data, while some of them are obtained using opinion polls. The total ranking is calculated as an un-weighted average of all well-being indicators. The OECD first presented the well-being indicators30 at its 50th anniversary in 2011, when Slovenia was ranked 21st among the 34 countries surveyed. This year Slovenia is placed 19'h among 36 countries;31 12'h among the EU countries in the OECD. Australia ranks highest among all the countries surveyed, while Sweden is the top ranking country in the EU. The lowest-ranking country in the OECD is Turkey, and among EU countries, Estonia. 30 For more information on OECD Better Life Initiative; Compendium of OECD Well-Being Indicators see SEM, May 2011, No. 5. 31 Besides the 34 OECD countries, this year's survey also includes Brazil and Russia. In the following years the OECD is also going to add other key partners (China, India, Indonesia, South Africa). 32 For more on the methodology see OECD Better Life Initiative; Compendium of OECD Well-Being Indicators. According to the OECD indicators, Slovenia is placed best in the dimension of education and skills (9th) and worst in income and wealth (26th). It also ranks high in civic engagement and governance (10'h) and social connections (15'h), where it is above the OECD average. In the dimensions of jobs and earnings and work and life balance, Slovenia is around the middle of the scale and close to the OECD average. In income and wealth it has slipped two places since 2011 (26'h), being also low with regard to the indicators of life satisfaction (25'h, equal to 2011), health status, environmental quality and housing (23rd). However, it should be noted that there are significant differences between individual indicators of the same dimension. In the dimension of housing, for example, Slovenia ranks below the OECD average, but only due to the indicator of the number of rooms per person, as the other two indicators in this dimension are relatively favourable. There is also a significant gap between the environmental quality indicators, with the water quality indicator being much better than the indicator of air pollution, which is actually the worst indicator of all. Nevertheless, Slovenia has improved its ranking in terms of environmental quality by three places relative to 2011. A breakdown by individual indicators shows that Slovenia stands out in a positive way in the indicators of the homicide rate, consultation on rulemaking, educational attainment and security of tenure. Over time, the OECD well-being indicators should also provide better insight into the distribution of well-being among individual population groups. With a view to influencing the development policy makers in individual OECD countries and helping them to design development policies that would improve the well-being of the population, the OECD selected indicators that are focussed on the well-being of households and individuals, rather than on macroeconomic performance, and on well-being outcomes that are relevant for them, rather than on input indicators. In addition to the two above-mentioned criteria for the selection of indicators, analysinginequalities in the distribution among individual population groups is another important component of the OECD approach to the measurement of well-being in a country. The OECD experts are therefore developing in-depth stratification analyses where they compare the upper and lower values on the social scale and provide comparisons by gender (which is, however, not yet possible in all indicators). With regard to gender equality, the ratio of 1.0 shows gender parity while a ratio greater than 1.0 indicates gender disparity. Out of the 16 indicators, for which gender equality is calculated for Slovenia, men score higher in three in particular (employees working very long hours, security of tenure and the number of people who were a victim of an assault), while the other indicators show a relatively high gender equality in Slovenia. The OECD also calculated social inequality, which is measured by the social inequality ratio.32 The higher the ratio, the higher social inequality is in a country. The ratio for Slovenia is highest in the indicators of average household net disposable income, the long-term unemployment rate, the employment rate and self-reported health. Table 12: OECD well-being indicators for Slovenia, 2013 Value Year Rank among 36 countries Gender inequality* Rank according to gender inequality** Social inequality Rank according to social inequality** Better Life Index (BLI) 2013 19 Dimension Indicator INCOME AND WEALTH 26 Household net financial wealth 18.065 USD 2010 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Household net adjusted disposable income per person 19.119 USD 2010 25 N/A N/A 3,6 3 to 31 JOBS AND EARNINGS 18 Job security 7,6% 2011 9 1,3 30 to 31 N/A N/A Personal earnings 32.480 USD 2011 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Long-term unemployment rate 3,6% 2011 27 1,0 4 to 34 2,9 16 to 33 Employment rate 64,0% 2011 21 1,1 8 to 36 2,2 25 to 33 HOUSING 23 Housing expenditure 20% 2011 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dwellings without basic facilities 99,5% 2011 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A Rooms per person 1,4 2011 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A EDUCATION AND SKILLS 9 Years in education 18,4 2010 9 1,1 32 to 35 N/A N/A Student skills (scores) 499 2009 17 1,0 36 to 36 1,2 17 to 36 Educational attainment 83,0% 2010 12 1,0 18 to 35 N/A N/A CIVIC ENGAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE 10 Consultation on rule-making (index) 10,3 2008 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A Voter turnout 66% 2011 24 1,0 7 to 35 1,2 23 to 34 SOCIAL CONNECTIONS 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Social network support 92,0% 2012 16 1,0 14 to 36 1,1 25 to 36 PERSONAL SECURITY 18 Homicide rate (average number of reported homicides per 100,000 people) 0,7 2010 6 1,1 5 to 35 N/A N/A Assault rate 3,9% 2010 20 1,4 20 to 36 N/A N/A WORK AND LIFE BALANCE 18 Time devoted to leisure and personal care (hours) 14,6 2001 23 1,1 18 to 19 N/A N/A Employees working very long hours 5,5% 2011 16 2,7 11 to 32 N/A N/A ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 23 Water quality (percentage of satisfied people) 87,0% 2012 15 1,0 16 to 36 1,1 29 to 36 Air pollution 26 mcg 2009 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEALTH STATUS 23 Self-reported health 60,0% 2011 27 1,1 24 to 35 1,7 31 to 33 Life expectancy at birth (years) 80,1 2011 24 1,1 28 to 26 N/A N/A LIFE SATISFACTION 25 Life satisfaction (rate) 6,1 2012 25 1,0 28 to 36 1,2 29 to 36 Source: OECD. Note: *The value of 1.0 shows gender parity while a ratio greater than 1.0 indicates gender disparity; **Among the countries for which data are available (not more than 36); N/A - not available. Table 13: Rankings of OECD countries, Brazil and Russia, according to the BLI and 11 dimensions, 2013 Country ro I n 1 0 Ü aa h n a. miš 3 W> n n ss i H o £ i n to uu SkÜ i § a 3 a. o. § g A v 5 a e a e c e t S i S tt i a 0 — 3 W> e ^ Ü » o a a e E u U 3 t 3 ^ tt l H tt o tt u w> i— ŠT ä ii ion BLI 1 14 8 4 7 1 9 5 29 8 2 12 Sweden 2 13 14 14 3 2 16 27 6 1 7 4 Canada 3 5 9 2 10 14 7 2 20 11 4 8 Norway 4 16 2 5 17 9 12 12 3 3 13 2 Suisse 5 2 1 17 16 31 4 21 15 12 3 1 USA 6 1 12 1 19 16 23 15 28 16 10 14 Denmark 7 15 10 19 14 6 5 19 1 5 21 5 The Netherlands 8 8 4 7 18 20 8 24 2 24 11 6 Iceland 9 21 7 18 12 17 1 7 30 4 6 3 United Kingdom 10 7 6 16 26 5 3 4 22 2 12 18 New Zealand 11 20 13 11 11 4 11 6 24 9 1 11 Finland 12 18 17 13 1 13 18 11 12 7 20 7 Austria 13 9 5 21 23 8 6 9 25 17 19 9 Luxemburg 14 3 3 15 31 7 19 26 9 10 16 16 Ireland 15 19 24 3 21 12 2 8 8 13 9 15 Belgium 16 4 16 6 15 15 17 30 4 25 18 17 Germany 17 10 11 12 6 29 14 16 10 6 22 19 France 18 11 19 10 27 25 13 25 14 15 15 21 SLOVENIA 19 26 18 23 9 10 15 18 18 23 23 25 Spain 20 22 34 8 28 23 10 22 5 27 8 24 Japan 21 6 15 25 2 22 21 1 34 22 29 27 Czech Republic 22 27 21 26 13 27 25 14 26 18 26 23 Italy 23 12 23 24 29 21 29 23 13 28 17 30 Israel 24 17 20 28 30 36 24 31 31 32 5 13 Poland 25 30 26 35 5 18 20 3 27 30 28 29 Slovakia 26 29 33 29 22 30 26 13 16 14 27 28 Korea 27 24 25 22 4 3 34 10 33 29 31 26 Portugal 28 23 27 9 32 32 31 28 19 20 24 35 Hungary 29 31 30 32 20 33 22 17 11 21 35 36 Greece 30 25 31 33 24 28 33 20 17 33 14 34 Estonia 31 35 32 31 8 34 30 33 21 19 34 32 Russia 32 28 22 20 25 35 28 32 7 34 36 31 Brazil 33 36 29 30 35 24 27 35 23 26 32 20 Chile 34 33 28 34 33 26 32 34 32 36 25 22 Mexico 35 34 35 27 36 19 35 36 35 31 33 10 Turkey 36 32 36 36 34 11 36 29 36 35 30 33 Source: OECD. Note: The counties are ranked in order of their rank for the composite indicator BLI. X "ö C a a (O "iS SJ (O MAIN INDICATORS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Summer forecast 2013 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.3 -2.4 -0.2 1.0 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 37,244 35,556 35,607 36,172 35,466 35,027 35,455 36,322 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 18,420 17,415 17,379 17,620 17,244 16,982 17,157 17,544 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,700 20,600 20,800 21,300 21,000 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 91 87 85 84 82 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 36,262 34,868 35,029 35,670 35,022 34,256 34,608 35,349 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,923 34,693 35,085 35,776 34,980 34,382 34,503 35,195 Rate of registered unemployment 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.4 13.6 13.4 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.8 11.0 10.6 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 0.8 -6.1 3.5 2.2 -1.1 0.0 1.3 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 -16.7 10.1 7.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 4.8 Exports of goods 1.8 -17.4 11.9 8.5 -0.1 1.3 3.2 5.1 Exports of services 14.3 -13.7 3.7 1.4 2.1 3.8 3.0 3.6 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 -19.5 7.9 5.2 -4.3 -0.4 2.0 4.8 Imports of goods 3.0 -20.7 8.9 6.1 -4.6 -0.4 1.9 4.9 Imports of services 8.2 -12.0 2.7 -0.3 -2.4 -0.1 2.5 4.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -2.295 -246 -209 2 818 1.454 1.496 1.457 As a per cent share relative to GDP -6.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 2.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 Gross external debt, in EUR million 39.234 40.294 40.723 40.241 40.838 40.3575 As a per cent share relative to GDP 105.3 113.3 114.4 111.2 115.1 115.7 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.304 1.298 1.298 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.3 0.1 1.3 0.9 -2.9 -4.2 -2.5 0.8 As a % of GDP4 52.6 55.7 57.2 57.8 58.3 57.3 56.0 55.8 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 2.5 1.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.7 -1.4 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 18.1 20.1 20.7 20.8 20.6 20.4 20.2 19.8 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 7.1 -23.2 -13.8 -8.1 -9.3 -1.2 0.8 1.5 As a % of GDP4 28.6 23.1 20.1 18.5 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Summer Forecast, June 2013). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End June 2013. PRODUCTION 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 6 7 8 9 10 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.1 1.3 -1.2 2.8 -0.8 -3.8 -0.4 -1.5 -0.4 -2.3 -2.0 -0.7 2.4 -2.1 -2.1 1.5 -3.1 B Mining and quarrying 13.9 -7.9 -7.4 -9.0 -9.6 -8.7 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 8.7 -8.1 -0.5 -9.1 -17.2 -2.4 -7.2 C Manufacturing 7.6 1.1 -2.4 2.9 -1.1 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.1 -3.2 -3.2 -0.9 2.4 -2.5 -3.3 1.8 -3.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 1.8 5.0 10.5 3.8 5.1 4.0 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 8.0 2.1 2.4 4.3 11.9 -0.3 4.7 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.9 -24.8 -16.8 -30.1 -24.5 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.6 -35.0 -26.2 -30.4 -16.3 -24.4 Buildings -14.0 -39.7 -17.3 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.3 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 Civil engineering -19.0 -15.3 -16.6 -20.7 -19.9 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.7 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 7.9 3.2 -3.4 1.5 3.6 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.7 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 28.2 9.7 -7.5 10.8 8.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.6 3.1 0.2 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.7 -4.9 -5.8 1.4 0.0 6.3 2.4 0.7 Real turnover in retail trade -0.1 1.4 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 -2.6 -3.8 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 2.1 0.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 12.2 6.6 0.0 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.8 -7.2 -5.7 -6.4 -9.8 -10.3 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 1.3 5.8 0.6 3.8 4.6 3.4 3.4 -0.6 1.2 -1.2 -5.4 1.1 1.1 -0.3 8.5 5.6 5.7 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -1.5 5.3 -4.0 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.2 0.5 -10.9 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 0.7 9.1 0.9 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 2.7 3.7 -1.1 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -2.7 6.9 2.2 4.8 7.5 -1.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 454.5 478.9 481.7 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -9 -7 -17 -4 -6 -10 -12 -16 -19 -21 -15 -13 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 0 -11 3 0 -7 -6 -11 -13 -13 -9 -5 1 1 -1 -1 -8 - in construction -57 -46 -41 -46 -44 -43 -40 -44 -40 -39 -30 -22 -45 -46 -44 -43 -42 - in services -3 1 -12 3 3 -4 -8 -8 -14 -18 -12 -12 3 3 5 2 0 - in retail trade 7 8 2 12 1 12 6 4 1 -3 -4 2 12 1 -11 12 13 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -25 -35 -24 -25 -24 -26 -36 -39 -37 -29 -33 -22 -24 -27 -23 -26 Source of data: SURS. Note: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2011 2012 2013 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -0.4 -8.3 0.0 3.3 -3.7 2.2 -3.7 -2.6 3.6 3.1 -6.8 5.0 -4.9 -7.5 0.8 -0.3 -5.9 3.7 -1.7 -3.8 -3.0 -17.0 6.1 -11.4 -22.0 -8.2 9.8 -7.0 -5.7 1.4 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -9.6 12.9 24.1 -2.5 -9.3 -12.2 -1.6 -8.8 -0.5 1.8 -4.3 1.9 -5.3 -4.9 1.9 1.6 -8.4 4.5 -5.5 -9.1 -0.3 -0.4 -8.2 3.4 -2.0 -3.9 - - 13.2 -4.0 3.5 16.3 5.3 5.6 9.4 24.0 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 12.3 1.0 11.1 7.2 1.7 -2.2 - - -7.8 -24.0 -21.7 -24.3 -3.1 -13.5 -23.8 -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.4 -2.5 -28.6 -44.5 -31.1 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -23.8 -15.2 0.7 -7.0 -18.1 -22.8 -22.0 -18.6 -26.5 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0.5 -1.8 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.8 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -8.0 -4.8 -8.7 -7.6 2.9 1.3 2.8 1.3 -1.1 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8 -6.5 -4.1 -5.8 -7.5 -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.7 -1.7 -3.6 -3.6 -3.4 -0.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.1 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.6 -7.4 -8.4 11.5 6.9 15.3 5.6 -0.9 8.6 3.9 -0.9 0.1 0.4 -2.2 7.2 2.8 -5.4 4.8 -2.0 -6.5 1.5 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 - - 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 - - 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 - - 0.2 0.5 0.3 -3.6 1.4 -0.9 2.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.5 -3.5 -7.4 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 - - 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 -17 -16 -19 -21 -23 -22 -17 -16 -16 -13 -14 -14 -12 -12 -12 -7 -5 -3 -6 -8 -9 -11 -13 -11 -14 -15 -17 -14 -9 -12 -8 -7 -9 -5 -2 -4 -3 -45 -41 -43 -39 -39 -44 -44 -43 -41 -37 -41 -42 -41 -35 -30 -30 -30 -26 -20 -20 -22 -15 -2 -9 -11 -9 -5 -8 -6 -10 -11 -14 -17 -20 -19 -15 -13 -13 -11 -9 -13 -14 -11 -9 14 10 5 8 6 8 2 3 -1 0 3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -6 -4 -6 -4 16 12 3 -26 -20 -27 -26 -26 -39 -33 -36 -35 -36 -45 -39 -38 -34 -30 -31 -26 -26 -37 -37 -37 -33 LABOUR MARKET 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 935.5 934.7 920.2 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 931.7 930.0 931.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 835.0 824.0 810.0 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 824.2 823.0 824.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 33.4 38.8 37.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.9 38.8 38.8 In industry, construction 287.3 272.9 263.1 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 272.6 272.8 272.7 Of which: in manufacturing 188.6 184.8 182.9 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 in construction 78.5 67.8 59.8 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 68.4 68.4 67.0 In services 514.3 512.3 510.0 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 512.7 511.4 513.1 Of which: in public administration 52.0 51.4 50.7 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 51.4 51.5 51.2 in education, health-services, social work 116.7 118.8 120.9 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 118.2 118.1 119.3 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 747.2 729.1 717.0 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 729.0 728.1 729.7 In enterprises and organisations 685.7 671.8 662.6 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 671.1 670.5 672.2 By those self-employed 61.5 57.2 54.5 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 57.9 57.5 57.4 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.8 94.9 93.0 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 95.1 95.0 94.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 100.5 110.7 110.2 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 107.6 107.0 107.0 Female 47.9 52.1 52.2 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 50.9 51.0 51.3 By age: under 26 13.9 12.9 11.9 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 11.5 11.1 11.2 aged over 50 31.4 39.0 38.2 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.9 38.8 38.4 Unskilled 37.5 39.5 39.4 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 39.2 37.8 39.5 43.4 40.6 38.1 37.9 38.3 For more than 1 year 42.8 50.2 55.2 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 48.8 49.6 50.4 Those receiving benefits 30.0 36.3 33.9 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 35.2 35.1 34.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 Male 10.1 11.4 11.5 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.0 10.9 10.8 Female 11.6 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 12.2 12.3 12.3 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 13.3 2.7 5.3 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 0.5 -0.6 0.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.8 14.4 16.3 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 0.6 0.7 1.4 Redundancies 83.5 82.2 90.3 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 6.4 5.7 6.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.0 61.0 58.3 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 4.0 4.1 5.4 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 29.9 32.8 43.1 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 2.6 2.9 2.5 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 41.6 35.6 33.9 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 34.5 34.7 34.9 As % of labour force 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2011 2012 2013 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.5 38.3 38.7 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 41.8 40.5 39.6 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.9 2.0 0.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 2.5 1.4 1.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.7 3.1 -1.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 3.8 1.1 0.2 B Mining and quarrying 4.0 3.9 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 4.3 6.6 9.7 C Manufacturing 8.9 3.9 2.5 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 5.2 3.4 2.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 2.3 3.3 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 4.7 2.2 3.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.2 -0.1 0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 3.3 1.1 2.2 F Constrution 4.5 1.9 -2.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.9 0.8 -0.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 3.7 2.8 0.8 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 H Transportation and storage 2.0 2.7 -0.4 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 4.0 -1.5 3.5 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.0 2.1 -0.8 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 J Information and communication 2.6 0.9 -0.4 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 2.5 3.1 1.2 K Financial and insurance activities 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 3.2 0.9 -0.6 L Real estate activities 2.9 3.0 -0.6 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 4.7 3.4 1.7 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.6 -0.4 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 0.2 -0.9 0.5 N Administrative and support service activities 4.0 3.5 0.7 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 3.1 5.2 2.4 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security -0.6 0.3 -1.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 P Education 0.6 0.2 -3.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -0.5 0.1 1.0 Q Human health and social work activities -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 S Other service activities 4.2 0.9 -0.9 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 1.6 1.1 0.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -2.1 -0.1 -1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.1 Real (deflator HICP) -1.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 0.8 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 Real (deflator ULC) -1.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.5 -2.3 -2.4 -2.0 -3.3 -3.5 -3.2 -2.7 USD/EUR 1.3268 1.3917 1.2856 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2011 2012 2013 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 PRICES 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 5 6 7 8 9 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 1.0 4.4 4.1 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.2 5.7 6.5 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 Clothing and footwear -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas 10.2 5.6 3.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 Furnishings, household equipment 1.4 2.7 0.1 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.1 1.6 0.4 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 Transport -0.3 1.0 3.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 Communications 1.4 1.2 -2.4 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 Recreation and culture 0.4 -1.5 1.4 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 Education 1.6 1.7 2.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 Catering services -2.5 -6.8 4.5 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 HCPI 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.1 4.5 0.9 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 Domestic market 2.0 3.8 1.0 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 Non-domestic market 2.2 5.3 0.7 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 euro area 2.2 6.1 0.1 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 non-euro area 2.1 3.6 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 Import price indices 7.4 5.4 1.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 16.5 10.9 12.7 9.9 8.3 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 Oil products 17.3 11.9 13.0 10.5 9.9 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 Transport & communications 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices 1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Direct control - total 14.2 2.8 9.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2011 2012 2013 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.5 9.5 9.4 11.3 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.3 12.0 13.8 14.7 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 12.2 14.2 15.3 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 9.5 10.6 11.1 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 6 7 8 9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -50 146 1,159 120 -47 0 96 262 320 482 497 685 144 45 -110 17 Goods1 -830 -957 -110 -189 -194 -356 -149 -45 60 24 150 235 33 29 -132 -91 Exports 18,973 21,450 21,631 5,539 5,285 5,403 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,405 5,653 1,881 1,798 1,546 1,942 Imports 19,804 22,407 21,741 5,728 5,479 5,758 5,514 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,255 5,418 1,848 1,769 1,677 2,033 Services 1,281 1,476 1,803 406 377 375 418 444 528 414 499 527 138 89 132 155 Exports 4,593 4,842 5,166 1,186 1,393 1,217 1,118 1,237 1,502 1,310 1,195 1,303 409 465 467 461 Imports 3,312 3,365 3,363 781 1,016 841 700 793 974 896 696 776 271 376 335 305 Income -588 -524 -552 -128 -235 -81 -145 -168 -198 -42 -72 -80 -34 -93 -87 -55 Receipts 583 936 699 249 221 259 131 188 174 206 224 234 91 74 65 82 Expenditure 1,172 1,460 1,251 378 456 340 276 356 372 247 296 314 125 167 153 137 Current transfers 88 151 18 32 4 62 -28 31 -70 86 -80 3 7 20 -23 8 Receipts 1,231 1,404 1,410 328 319 371 348 366 285 411 332 353 102 120 74 125 Expenditure 1,143 1,253 1,392 296 315 310 377 336 355 325 412 350 95 100 97 118 Capital and financial account 530 -474 -1,206 -257 -81 -175 67 -249 -540 -484 -897 -913 -330 57 -43 -94 Capital account 54 -85 -92 0 -3 -80 -24 11 -30 -49 -5 -40 -2 -5 -2 5 Financial account 476 -389 -1,114 -257 -78 -94 91 -260 -511 -434 -891 -873 -328 62 -41 -99 Direct investment 428 633 166 236 260 151 146 98 84 -162 -61 -650 37 69 68 123 Domestic abroad 156 -85 212 32 54 -156 41 127 39 5 -108 56 27 -44 41 57 Foreign in Slovenia 272 718 -46 204 206 307 105 -29 45 -167 46 -706 10 113 26 66 Portfolio investment 1,956 1,839 -218 -297 -441 -20 -923 124 -982 1,564 132 1,977 -223 70 -63 -448 Financial derivatives -117 -155 -203 -19 -28 -24 -23 -21 -31 -129 19 -229 -14 -3 -4 -21 Other investment -1,810 -2,777 -890 -188 98 -221 851 -455 439 -1,726 -1,048 -1,952 -126 -62 -57 218 Assets 779 -1,490 -1,474 -169 -363 567 -1,466 -95 205 -118 -1,295 -671 -156 -504 -25 166 Commercial credits -174 -49 65 -88 44 316 -347 -35 109 339 -359 -45 -36 -39 202 -118 Loans 203 -55 -319 -22 48 19 3 -95 84 -310 25 -181 -18 -20 27 41 Currency and deposits 669 -1,341 -1,177 -58 -422 249 -1,131 11 -33 -24 -956 -369 -95 -431 -235 244 Other assets 81 -46 -45 0 -33 -18 10 24 45 -124 -6 -77 -7 -14 -18 -1 Liabilities -2,589 -1,287 584 -19 461 -788 2,317 -359 234 -1,608 247 -1,281 30 442 -32 51 Commercial credits 362 107 265 -19 -82 17 161 136 -96 63 -303 99 -160 -7 -253 178 Loans -986 -1,234 -729 -298 203 -752 -121 -223 -178 -208 374 602 142 240 -41 5 Deposits -1,954 -169 1,026 334 340 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 86 202 237 -99 Other liabilities -11 9 23 -36 0 3 -11 17 -22 39 -12 -2 -38 7 25 -33 International reserves2 19 72 31 12 33 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -2 -12 15 29 Statistical error -480 328 47 137 128 174 -163 -13 220 2 400 228 186 -102 153 77 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,875 2,042 2,112 532 514 540 477 569 514 552 516 N/A 190 182 156 176 Intermediate goods 10,172 12,008 12,138 3,124 3,024 2,931 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,077 N/A 1,052 1,014 910 1,100 Consumer goods 6,592 6,950 6,811 1,769 1,631 1,803 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,676 N/A 602 564 441 627 Import of investment goods 2,324 2,505 2,402 617 589 736 562 584 570 687 644 N/A 205 205 166 219 Intermediate goods 12,247 14,107 14,005 3,610 3,472 3,490 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,473 N/A 1,176 1,125 1,065 1,283 Consumer goods 5,530 5,943 5,671 1,526 1,502 1,524 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,395 N/A 492 476 474 552 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2011 2012 2013 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 84 7 -91 -23 -76 195 89 23 150 59 61 200 196 230 56 67 87 343 301 146 238 -39 -106 -211 -115 -39 4 7 -31 -21 48 -73 84 43 98 -117 -44 66 128 141 -8 102 1,849 1,913 1,641 1,646 1,726 1,992 1,807 1,862 1,891 1,829 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,721 1,746 1,938 1,969 1,853 1,830 1,888 2,019 1,851 1,761 1,765 1,988 1,800 1,892 1,912 1,781 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,764 1,680 1,810 1,828 1,862 1,728 152 127 97 152 106 161 148 156 140 147 189 192 183 145 86 166 121 212 167 180 180 414 381 421 377 325 417 392 410 434 512 512 477 467 415 427 386 349 460 423 430 451 263 254 325 225 219 256 244 254 295 366 323 285 284 270 341 220 228 248 256 249 271 -29 -37 -14 -35 -41 -68 -44 -99 -25 -110 -32 -56 -8 -14 -19 -26 -24 -23 -21 -31 -28 81 78 100 41 42 48 54 63 72 54 55 65 58 59 88 74 73 77 78 78 78 110 115 114 77 83 116 98 162 97 164 87 121 66 73 108 100 97 99 99 109 106 0 24 38 -25 -101 98 -23 -3 56 -25 -24 -21 -21 1 106 -30 -76 26 14 6 -17 96 117 158 73 68 207 97 113 156 112 85 88 90 109 212 86 95 151 138 115 100 96 94 120 97 169 110 120 116 100 137 109 109 112 108 106 116 171 125 124 109 117 -297 -53 176 87 152 -172 -168 -162 81 -55 -243 -242 -384 -348 248 -397 -91 -409 -332 -171 -410 0 11 -91 -4 -6 -14 24 5 -18 9 -10 -29 -13 -40 3 -1 -5 0 0 -27 -13 -297 -64 267 90 158 -158 -193 -167 100 -65 -233 -213 -372 -308 245 -397 -86 -409 -332 -144 -397 -83 -51 285 -53 77 123 -92 144 45 87 -28 25 -45 31 -149 53 29 -143 -697 -1 48 -77 3 -83 -12 17 36 -6 53 80 13 43 -16 -6 42 -32 -7 -3 -98 -7 26 37 -6 -54 367 -41 60 87 -86 91 -35 74 -71 41 -39 -11 -117 60 32 -46 -690 -27 11 225 -179 -66 221 -820 -324 76 133 -86 -644 -152 -187 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 271 -143 2,585 -466 -8 2 -18 0 9 -31 -6 -7 -7 -9 -3 -19 -44 -40 -44 -35 63 -9 -8 -68 -153 -417 120 76 -10 834 27 -171 -435 151 541 -46 -56 -1,982 -256 512 -281 -206 -560 499 -2,686 235 -361 301 628 -612 102 -956 -383 119 169 122 147 -64 -294 -422 597 -335 -378 -582 -236 -415 -19 -135 42 409 -86 -85 -176 24 -32 -27 16 158 -65 -28 37 330 -65 -80 -214 -30 59 -73 -48 23 44 22 128 -147 -153 -28 86 40 51 -8 17 -49 -277 4 9 12 -71 -68 -42 -187 233 203 -544 42 -629 -258 164 105 36 -77 8 -132 -406 514 -281 -308 -367 -66 -409 105 9 3 -29 -3 17 -4 4 15 5 30 15 0 -151 -4 31 6 1 -13 -70 3 -10 -56 -181 -551 602 732 983 212 -554 -18 419 -193 8 -1,688 166 -85 53 172 22 735 -2,270 254 -20 133 -96 -79 147 93 -16 -72 224 -8 -144 56 6 18 40 -236 86 -153 2 32 66 -201 -429 -121 77 -211 14 103 -213 -114 -83 -62 -32 14 -194 -28 34 -151 492 675 -14 -59 158 103 -319 550 833 904 115 -278 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 7 12 -15 54 -36 -29 10 9 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 38 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 0 -2 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 214 46 -85 -64 -76 -23 80 139 -231 -4 182 42 188 118 -304 331 4 65 32 24 172 175 179 186 144 159 175 183 189 196 172 164 179 193 191 168 155 159 202 180 175 N/A 1,037 1,058 837 957 996 1,110 1,009 1,049 1,042 1,052 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 1,007 989 1,081 1,110 1,050 N/A 597 632 573 500 528 657 559 572 603 554 460 590 610 628 550 507 557 612 634 585 N/A 203 226 307 174 159 228 186 201 197 217 163 190 219 209 259 195 195 253 218 257 N/A 1,209 1,262 1,018 1,171 1,171 1,294 1,177 1,209 1,192 1,175 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,222 1,109 1,142 1,199 1,198 N/A 504 537 483 447 456 533 449 475 475 442 447 461 530 508 448 444 467 484 493 492 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 138 102 221 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 Central government (S. 1311) 3,419 4,299 5,057 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 526 584 610 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,282 9,454 9,267 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,646 20,876 19,470 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,497 2,229 2,135 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,811 5,445 5,194 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,994 35,692 34,558 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 In foreign currency 1,843 1,536 1,309 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 Securities, total 5,345 5,659 5,862 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 26,767 28,420 29,582 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 Overnight 8,155 8,245 8,678 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,193 7,868 7,056 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 With agreed maturity -long-term 10,337 12,248 13,780 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 82 59 68 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 Deposits in foreign currency, total 463 579 552 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 Overnight 285 386 372 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 With agreed maturity -short-term 121 133 123 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 With agreed maturity -long-term 55 59 56 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.81 2.15 2.31 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.53 5.46 5.48 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 5.69 5.32 5.40 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.81 1.39 0.57 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 6-month rates 1.08 1.64 0.83 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 6-month rates 0.27 0.18 0.15 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,814 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,506 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,993 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,229 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,440 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 29,457 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,632 8,523 8,648 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,852 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 519 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 354 354 349 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 103 99 89 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.1 2.01 2.01 1.97 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.50 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 PUBLIC FINANCE 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 11 1 12 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,794.0 14,982.3 14,999.1 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.7 3,495.0 1,361.2 1,364.8 Current revenues 13,771.5 14,037.9 14,030.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.4 3,293.4 1,265.0 1,214.8 Tax revenues 12,848.4 13,209.2 13,118.3 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 2,723.5 2,656.6 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 227.5 246.2 Social security contributions 5,234.5 5,267.6 5,244.1 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 444.0 485.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.1 29.2 25.6 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 2.4 3.3 Taxes on property 219.7 215.2 233.9 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 33.9 14.5 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,780.7 4,856.2 4,876.1 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 495.4 373.0 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.7 100.2 82.5 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 8.6 9.2 Other taxes 4.0 17.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 -26.3 -15.0 Non-tax revenues 923.0 828.7 912.3 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.6 186.0 79.5 98.0 Capital revenues 175.7 65.3 62.5 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 6.1 12.0 Grants 12.6 10.4 9.2 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.6 2.2 1.2 Transferred revenues 109.5 53.8 51.7 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 Receipts from the EU budget 724.7 814.9 845.1 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.5 87.6 136.6 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,692.7 16,546.3 16,125.7 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.5 4,013.1 1,368.3 1,542.9 Current expenditures 6,960.4 6,926.7 6,813.5 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.6 1,817.9 530.7 565.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,912.4 3,882.7 3,727.7 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 904.3 931.3 320.0 308.2 Expenditures on goods and services 2,512.4 2,443.4 2,373.0 615.7 603.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 563.0 570.1 204.5 238.0 Interest payments 488.2 526.7 647.9 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 1.9 5.6 Reserves 47.4 73.9 64.9 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 4.3 13.4 Current transfers 7,628.5 7,818.9 7,687.0 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.9 1,895.4 642.7 694.0 Subsidies 581.9 496.3 502.7 127.6 69.1 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 39.3 71.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,277.7 6,533.5 6,384.2 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.9 1,586.0 540.0 531.9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 728.8 737.2 741.0 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.3 186.7 62.3 77.8 Current transfers abroad 40.1 52.0 59.0 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 1.1 12.4 Capital expenditures 1,310.6 1,023.5 915.0 196.5 266.5 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.7 146.5 111.5 185.6 Capital transfers 396.4 372.1 319.9 73.3 97.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.8 48.1 61.9 Payments to the EU budget 396.8 405.1 390.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 35.3 36.2 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,898.7 -1,564.1 -1,122.8 - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1,181.7 1,094.3 1,342.3 1,283.2 1,159.7 1,269.3 1,188.8 1,234.9 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,182.9 1,143.5 1,093.2 1,186.7 1,134.2 1,174.1 1,152.0 1,056.4 1,202.5 1,230.7 1,101.4 1,153.8 1,120.0 1,189.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.4 1,072.6 981.5 1,107.6 1,061.3 1,124.4 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 1,174.5 1,049.3 1,090.3 1,059.0 1,107.5 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 214.7 219.2 195.6 248.3 194.8 279.9 91.6 210.5 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 443.5 438.0 461.0 441.3 449.0 442.5 432.2 446.0 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 8.2 9.7 8.7 10.5 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 443.6 282.4 438.0 460.7 371.2 332.7 496.8 414.2 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 2.7 -1.9 -0.3 4.2 3.0 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 45.4 104.3 88.5 56.2 52.1 63.6 60.9 82.4 53.6 67.6 67.0 170.7 53.9 117.4 66.3 61.1 64.4 60.5 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.7 2.9 4.1 3.6 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 27.2 33.5 134.9 49.4 53.9 109.9 63.7 41.3 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.0 67.9 43.6 1,491.0 1,446.9 1,388.7 1,366.7 1,249.3 1,241.5 1,346.7 1,241.2 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,459.9 1,348.5 1,329.1 1,453.2 1,259.9 1,300.0 679.4 648.3 667.4 628.1 515.4 525.2 530.0 507.0 516.2 563.7 530.6 502.2 663.4 568.3 610.9 727.5 519.5 570.8 331.1 316.5 310.7 329.8 315.6 328.5 323.3 305.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 275.6 326.1 267.4 310.8 293.0 280.3 358.0 206.6 191.7 191.4 216.0 192.1 191.0 199.0 195.1 157.0 215.4 209.5 208.3 197.2 156.6 209.2 199.3 194.7 176.1 136.4 134.8 160.6 77.3 2.6 1.6 5.1 2.2 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.1 2.5 4.7 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 707.5 632.8 617.1 638.5 627.2 613.0 697.0 607.4 598.8 611.3 662.3 674.2 683.0 640.0 625.9 637.8 632.7 624.8 117.0 40.5 19.6 47.2 31.8 28.8 14.7 20.6 22.0 27.4 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.4 34.3 535.4 534.5 539.3 530.2 531.1 527.4 611.7 519.8 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.6 526.4 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.5 526.0 49.0 53.4 55.6 56.3 59.0 54.2 67.3 62.3 67.0 56.7 70.0 90.1 57.8 41.7 58.7 67.5 57.2 62.0 6.1 4.3 2.6 4.6 5.2 2.7 3.3 4.6 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 56.7 55.0 53.6 50.9 63.9 64.3 76.7 72.4 74.2 86.5 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.8 41.4 38.1 50.8 57.6 12.3 18.6 16.1 14.3 10.2 19.8 23.5 24.5 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.4 12.7 11.9 17.9 16.5 23.2 13.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 34.9 32.5 19.1 19.5 29.9 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ -Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS - Labour Force Survey, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI -Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, OP RČV, - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA -Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, Statistical Register of Employment , ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror July-August 2013, No. 7-8, Vol. XIX