Volume 23 Issue 4 Thematic Issue: The Economic and Social Impacts of Covid-19 Article 5 12-2021 A First Peek at Firms’ Cash Flow Dynamics in the Pandemic Year: A First Peek at Firms’ Cash Flow Dynamics in the Pandemic Year: A Lesson Learned? A Lesson Learned? Ana Oblak University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Law, Ljubljana, Slovenia, ana.oblak@pf.uni-lj.si Follow this and additional works at: https://www.ebrjournal.net/home Part of the Finance Commons Recommended Citation Recommended Citation Oblak, A. (2021). A First Peek at Firms’ Cash Flow Dynamics in the Pandemic Year: A Lesson Learned?. Economic and Business Review, 23(4), 273-285. https://doi.org/10.15458/2335-4216.1292 This Original Article is brought to you for free and open access by Economic and Business Review. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economic and Business Review by an authorized editor of Economic and Business Review. ORIGINAL ARTICLE A First Peek at Firms’ Cash Flow Dynamics in the Pandemic Year: A Lesson Learned? Ana Oblak University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Law, Ljubljana, Slovenia Abstract Usingacomprehensivedatabaseoffinancialdataanddataonpublicsupport,weaimatdocumentingtheactual(andnot predicted) effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on firms' liquidity. A drain of the non-financial corporations’ liquidity was unprecedented and highly asymmetric across sectors. A simple descriptive analysis enables us to evaluate (partially) the effectivenessofsupportmeasuresandtoprovideinsightsonhowwell-targetedsupport measureswerefromthesectoral perspective. Acting in concert, the governments and the European Union (EU) institutions concerned seem to succeed in preventingmassiveilliquidity(fornow).Crisismeasuresweretargetedmostlyatfirmswithpositivecashflowinthepre- pandemicyearandensuredadditional3.4percent offirmsfromtheanalysedsectorstosustainpositivecashflowand0.6 percentoffirmstorecover.Strikingly,theshareofinactivefirmsdecreasedin2020comparedto2019,whichmightindicate thatmeasuressupporteddefactodeadcompanies.Consideringtheproportionoffirms,themostvulnerablesectorbenefited most,butnotwhenwethinkaboutareductionincashflowcompensatedforwithdirectgrants.Theapproach“whateveris necessary”inaformof “flat”publicsupportmightthusleadtonotoptimallytargetedbeneficiaries. Keywords: Liquidity, Covid-19, Crisis measures, Cash flow, Non-financial corporations JEL classification: E61, G18, G21 Introduction A fall in economic activity related to the pandemic was as unprecedented as was the drain of the non-financial corporations’ liquidity. The pandemic containment measures and related costs, a drop in foreign and domestic demand, supply chain distortions, and uncertain economic, social and political circumstances, all contributed to an abrupt deterioration of cash flow dynamics. Avoiding (also) high social and economic costs of bankruptcies and illiquidity, the policy response was exceptional in size and aligned, horizontally (monetary policy, fiscal policy and macroprudential policy) and vertically (at a national and suprana- tional level). The number of bankruptcies or clo- sures of non-financial corporations in Slovenia only increased in the sector hit hardest by the pandemic, namely accommodation and food service activities (Bank of Slovenia, 2021). 1 The shock was highly asymmetric with more than half of firms likely to experience liquidity shortages in the contact-intensive sectors such as the accom- modation and food service activities, transports and arts, entertainment, and recreation, but less than 20 percent in utilities, information and communication and professional services sector (Demmou et al., 2021). A study of liquidity and solvency of non- financial corporations in 26 European countries by Ebeke et al. (2021) documents similar, yet more conservative, results. The complexity of production networks (motor vehicle industry), intangible-in- tensity and limited reliance on debt finance were also shown to weaken/strengthen the resilience to the shock posed by the pandemic. Early literature focuses on the prediction of illi- quidity of non-financial corporations with and without policy intervention, with estimated time needed to become constrained and the size of the liquiditygap.AccordingtoDemmouetal.(2021),up Received 1 June 2021; accepted 8 October 2021. Available online 23 December 2021. E-mail address: ana.oblak@pf.uni-lj.si 1 Thisisinpartattributabletothegovernmentmeasuresregardingbankruptcyproceedingsincaseswhenthefirm'sinsolvencyisduetothedeclaration of the epidemic (Bank of Slovenia, 2021). https://doi.org/10.15458/85451.1292 2335-4216/© 2021 School of Economics and Business University of Ljubljana. This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). to38percentoffirmsin14analysedcountrieswould face liquidity shortfalls in 10 months without gov- ernment intervention. Direct payments to (at least partially) cover labour costs and debt moratorium policies seem to be most beneficial. Using a simple method based on firms’ balance sheets, Schivardi and Romano (2020) predict illiquidity for the whole population of Italian firms, month-by-month. Around 200,000 companies were projected to be illiquid at the peak which gives rise to a liquidity shortfall of some 72 billion euros. It is assessed that due to government guarantees for bank loans, almost all firms would be able to cover their liquidity gap. Ebeke et al. (2021) showed that policy measures, if implemented as designed, would assist in reducing liquidity risk substantially. McGeever et al. (2020) and Demmou et al. (2021) additionally shed light on sectoral heterogeneity. Anotherstanceofliteraturetacklesthefitbetween support supplied and support needed, considering size, instruments and sectors. Cirera et al. (2021) show that firms and sectors, which experienced a largerreductioninsales,weremorelikelytoreceive support, but also that firms not experiencing any shock received support. The recipients were mis- targeted, most likely due to barriers to access policy support and the limited capacity of public in- stitutions to target. The probability to receive sup- port was lower for small firms, which were more susceptible to the shock, but less informed (Apedo- Amahetal.,2020).Boleetal.(forthcoming)alsofind evidence that support measures were inappropri- ately targeted when sectors are considered. They further observe that support measures do not compensate for the non-pharmaceutical in- terventions impact. Bircan et al. (2020) analyse how suitable are financial debt instruments to ease liquidity constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in 16 emerging markets, and three Western European comparator countries. Firms’ debt capacity is considered a crucial factor. Accordingtothestudy,SlovenianSMEsarenotina most favourable position, having limited capacity for additional debt accumulation and low liquidity. The key concern raised relates to (potential) over- indebtedness and possibly mistargeted support measures. The impact of economic policies on firms’ liquidity and debt accumulation in Slovenia during the previous crisis episode is well documented by Bole et al. (2014). The authors analyse cash flow migration and illiquidity contagion of firms in bust, boom, and recovery episodes. It was shown that liquidity of non-financial corporations deteriorated sharply in the first years after the crisis and was slow to recover. Inability of banks to refinance foreign loans, reduction in informational capital (“abilityofbankstoevaluatefuturesolvencyoftheir clients”), because of high uncertainty and procycl- ical macroprudential policy intervention (most notably in the recovery period) lead to increased collateralization and credit rationing. This limited the access of non-financial corporations to needed liquidity and hindered their recovery. The oppor- tunitycostsofthesuboptimalpolicyresponse,when timing, sequencing and calibration are considered, seem to be high. In this paper, we analyse cash flow dynamics of the total population of Slovenian non-financial cor- porations. Following the methodology employed by Bole et al. (2014), cash flow status with and without policy measures in the year of the outbreak of the pandemic conditional on the cash flow status in the pre-pandemic year is studied. Using a simple descriptive analysis, we first document the actual and not predicted effects of the pandemic on firms’ liquidity and performance. Second, the analysis enables us to evaluate the effectiveness of govern- ment (mostly) employment support through direct grants and to provide insights on how well-targeted support measures are from the sectoral perspective. In short, who the beneficiaries are. The evaluation is, however, partial since the epidemic was pro- longed until 15 June 2021 in Slovenia, and a large part of the state aid which was approved and accounted for in financial statements for 2020, was paid out in 2021. Harmonized with our methodol- ogy, it has a positive effect on the cash flow only in 2021. Third, building upon the study by Bole et al. (2014) allows us to draw parallels to the Great Recession. The question of policy response and its horizontal and vertical alignment is addressed. The paper is organized as follows. First section providesan(non-exhaustive)overviewofmonetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy actions at a na- tionalandsupranationallevel.Inthesecondsection, we describe the data and empirical method. The thirdsectionisdedicatedtodiscussionoftheresults with reference to the Great Recession and conclusion. 1 A review of policymakers’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic The policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic was immediate and exceptional in its size. In antic- ipation of an unprecedented economic disaster, the sentiment towards austerity has turned on its head and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, underpinned that in a 274 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 “Draghiway” 2 :“Wewilldowhateverisnecessaryto support the Europeans and the European economy (European Commission, 2020a).“ 3 The European Commission acted promptly, focusing its activities mainly on providing the Member States with flexibility and financial re- sources to act. Since national budgets were antici- pated to be the main source of fiscal stimulus, the Commission activated the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, allowing govern- ments to “depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply under the European fiscal framework”. It is expected to be extended through 2022. Under the Temporary Framework, which was adopted in just two days, amended five times, and extended until 31 December 2021, the approval process of state aid notifications was facilitated,andtheruleswererelaxed(e.g.extension of the ceilings for state aid and scope to recapitali- zation and subordinated debt measures). 4 Up to 200 billion euros were made available against a 25- billion-euro governments’ guarantee to the Euro- pean Investment Bank (EIB) and delayed re- payments of loans were allowed for to avoid disruptions in funding and illiquidity of the non- financial corporations, especially SMEs. Further, 1,211 billion euros were secured through the 2021e2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and additional 807 billion euros through a temporary recovery instrument NextGenerationEU, financed by borrowing at the EU level. Under the Recovery and Resilience Facility Slovenia is to receive 1.8 billioneurosingrantsand705millioneurosinloans (European Commission, 2020b). The Eurosystem responded with an expansion in securitiespurchasesandrefinancing operations,the collateral terms changed. The participation in refi- nancing operations of Slovenia banks was yet lower than the euro area average. According to Bank of Slovenia (2020), this might be due to the excess liquidity and ample and growing non-banking sector deposits available (75.5 percent of total lia- bilities in June 2020). “Despite the risk of sudden withdrawals, this funding is more stable than wholesale funding and less subject to external shocks” (Bank of Slovenia, 2020). In Table 1, we present a non-exhaustive overview ofmacroprudentialpolicyduringthepandemic.The cumulative number of macroprudential policy tightening actions (þ1) less the number of macro- prudential policy loosening actions ( 1) is given. Shifts in macroprudential policy stance are shown by 10 categories, harmonized with the Macro- prudential policies evaluation database (MaPPED) (Budnik & Kleibl, 2018). To enable comparison, we additionallypresentthepolicyresponsetotheGreat Recession, which was documented by Prasnikar et al. (2021). Table 1 shows that at the supranational Table 1. Macroprudential interventions. Slovenia Slovenia European institutions concerned boom 2007e2008 bust 2009e2010 recovery 2011e2013 Covid-19 pandemic 2020e2021 Covid-19 pandemic 2020e2021 capital buffers 0 2 0 1 1 lending standards restrictions 1 0 0 10 limits on credit growth and volume 0 0 10 0 limits on large exposures and concentration 1 100 0 liquidity requirements and limits on currency and maturity mismatch 0000 1 loan-loss provisioning 1120 1 minimum capital requirements 1 0 0 0 2 leverage ratio 0 0 0 0 1 risk weights 0 0 0 0 1 other measures 1 0 2 0 1 Note: Macroprudential interventions; cumulative number of tightening actions (þ1) less number of loosening actions ( 1) in the indi- cated period. Source: Macroprudential Policies Evaluation Database (MaPPED); Prasnikar et al., 2021; author's calculations 2 Inthefaceofasovereigndebtcrisisin2012,MarioDraghisaid“withinourmandate,theECBisreadytodowhateverittakestopreservetheeuro.And believe me, it will be enough” (European Central Bank, 2012). 3 Following the Great Recession and excessive budget deficits resulting from it, many developed countries bet on fiscal consolidation policies. Only in 2013, Blanchard and Leigh (2013) proposed that the short-term multipliers in response to the fiscal consolidation during 2010 and 2011 were larger in size than previously believed. 4 A similar framework was adopted following the 2008 financial crisis. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 275 levelthemacroprudentialpolicyrequirementswere eased. The banking regulators issued in- terpretations and guidance to ensure additional flexibility in the existing regulatory (CRR) and ac- counting framework (introduction of IFRS 9). The European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Euro- pean Central Bank (ECB) alike postulated that “the application of support measures should not auto- matically lead to stricter prudential treatment of loans when the debtor's financial situation is not deteriorating. When banks approve a loan morato- rium that meets the conditions for a general pay- ment moratorium, this does not automatically require the reclassification of the exposure as forborne or defaulted.” Favourable treatment intro- duced in the area of capital requirements for credit risk is also being applied (Bank of Slovenia, 2020; Bank of Slovenia, 2021). 5 The ECB granted operational relief in the form of adjusting timetables, processes and deadlines for each individual bank, and more significantly, eased capital buffer and capital composition re- quirements. 6 Estimated capital relief amounted to 120billioneurosand“couldbeusedtoabsorblosses or potentially finance up to 1.8 trillion euros of lending” (European Central Bank, 2020). Also, the national macroprudential authorities acted (or were expected to act) countercyclically opting to lower or fully release the countercyclical capital buffer, sys- temic risk buffer or other systemically important institutions buffer. 7 The Bank of Slovenia kept its macroprudential policy toolkit nearly unchanged. It entails macroprudential restrictions on household lending, the countercyclical capital buffer, which stood at zero already before the outbreak of the pandemic, the buffer for other systemically impor- tant institutions, a macroprudential liquidity mea- sure (the gross loans to deposits flows 8 )a n d currently irrelevant macroprudential caps on de- posit interest rates. Restrictions on profit distribu- tions by banks and by leasing companies were introduced in April 2020 (amended in February 2021) and a temporary exclusion of a decline in income caused by the pandemic from the credit- worthiness evaluation was allowed for (Bank of Slovenia, 2020; Bank of Slovenia, 2021). ThefirstresponseoftheSloveniangovernmentto the Covid-19 pandemic was the law allowing the deferral of loan payments for at least 12 months for non-financial corporations, sole traders, farmers and private individuals. It was followed by nine fiscal stimulus packages, which amounted to almost 5 billion euros in the period until June 2021. Table 2 summarizes support measures and financial re- sources provided. Employment support accounted for roughly 36 percent, followed by measures to maintain liquidity, which amounted to 1.4 billion euros or 27.7 percent. Due to an extensive fiscal stimulus,thegeneralgovernmentsectorreturnedto adeficitof7.7percentofGDPin2020fromasurplus of 0.4 percent in year 2019. The projected general government deficit in 2021 is 7.9 percent of GDP down from 8.6 percent owing to more favourable economic outlook. Also, in 2008 and 2009 the gov- ernment acted countercyclically, but the interven- tion was less intensive (Republic of Slovenia Fiscal Council, 2021; Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, 2021). 2 Data Our empirical analysis draws upon the study of cashflowdynamicsandilliquiditycontagionofnon- financial companies in Slovenia during the Great RecessionbyBoleetal.(2014).Usingcomprehensive databases of firm-level financial data and data on stateaidandemployingasimpledescriptiveanalysis, we first document the effects of the pandemic on firms’ liquidity and performance. Second, cash flow statuswithandwithoutpolicymeasuresintheyearof theoutbreakofthepandemicconditionalonthecash flowstatusinthepre-pandemicyearisstudied. We use three sources of data in the empirical analysis. The first one is a comprehensive database of financial data provided by the Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and RelatedServices(AJPES).Thedataencompassesthe 5 “TransitionalperiodforlimitingtheimpactofIFRS9provisionsontheregulatorycapitalofbanksisbeingextendedbytwoyears(untiltheendof2024), thereby mitigating any impact on bank lending capacity from a sudden significant increase in expected credit-loss provisions during the economic downturncausedbyCovid-19(BankofSlovenia,2020).”Asaninsight,afterthefirstquarterof2010,theBankofSlovenialaunchedaprocessofaccelerated implementation of stricter capital requirements (Bole et al., 2014). 6 “Temporarily,banksareallowedtooperatebelowthelevelofcapitaldefinedbythePillar2Guidance,thecapitalconservationbufferandtheliquidity coverage ratio.” Furthermore, banks are also “allowed to partially use capital instruments that do not qualify as Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital, for example Additional Tier 1 or Tier 2 instruments, to meet the Pillar 2 Requirements (P2R)” (European Central Bank, 2020). 7 The countercyclical capital buffer was lowered or fully released in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Slovakia, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Lithuania, and the UK. The macroprudential authorities in Estonia and Finland used other instruments at their disposal and reduced the systemic risk buffer rates to zero, while the Netherlands reduced the existing rates for three institutions. Finland and the Netherlands additionally opted to selectively reduce the buffer for other systemically important institutions (Bank of Slovenia, 2020). 8 “Amacroprudentialmeasureknownasgrossloanstodepositsflows(GLTDF)recommendsthatbankswithapositiveannualinflowofdepositsbythe non-banking sector should have an annual increase in lending to the non-banking sector (before impairment) that is not negative. Preventing the banks' excessive reliance on unstable sources of funding (Bank of Slovenia, 2020).” 276 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 Table 2. Covid-19 measures adopted by the Slovenian government. Category Description of measures 2020 MarcheDecember in million EUR 2021 JanuaryeJune in million EUR Covid measures 2,910 2,049 Measures to preserve jobs The partial coverage of wage compen- sation during temporary lay-off (fur- loughing),thecrisisbonus,themonthly basic income and relief from the pay- mentof socialsecuritycontributionsfor claimants who were unable to pursue theirbusinessactivities,temporarycash assistance for job loss from thefirst day ofunemployment untiltheliftingofthe emergency measures. 1,137 639 Measures for the smooth operation of public services Employee bonuses, control of the epidemic (protective equipment, etc.), measures in education, sport and cul- ture, compensation for healthcare ser- vice providers. 508 728 Measures to maintain consumption and social position A 200-euro voucher per adult and a 50- euro voucher per child in 2020 and an additional 100-euro voucher in 2021 to bespentinaccommodationinSlovenia, solidaritybonusforvariousgroups(e.g. from 130 to 300 euros for pensioners). 291 50 Other expenditure 67 111 Measures to maintain liquidity 906 466 Deferred and instalment payments of tax Theoptionofdeferringtaxliabilitiesfor up to 24 months or paying liabilities in 24 monthly instalments. A two-month extensionofthedeadlineforsubmitting the return for the personal income tax prepayment for business activities and thetaxreturn,athree-monthdeferralof the payment of social security contri- butions for self-employed persons who have no other employees, the deferral of the prepayment of personal income tax on business activities for April and May 2020 (until April 2021). 219 18 Uncalculated and unpaid advance payments of corporate income tax liabilities 171 0 Reimbursement of fixed costs The direct grants to all companies irre- spective of their size and of the sector, whichhavesufferedadeclineofatleast 30% in their revenue in the period be- tween October and December 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. Also applies in first half of 2021. 0 296 Guarantees Government guarantees for a morato- rium on payments deriving from all li- abilities under loan agreements for up to 12 months for non-financial corpo- rations, sole traders, farmers and pri- vate individuals. Loans made from public funds, encompassing additional financing by SID banka and additional guarantees for loans and liquidityloans to SMEs by the Slovene Enterprise Fund, the guarantee scheme for corpo- ratesandthecorporatedebtrepurchase mechanism. 192 140 Liquidity loans 305 66 Deferred payment of loan liabilitiese SID Bank 19 0 Source: Republic of Slovenia Fiscal Council, 2021; Bank of Slovenia, 2020. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 277 total population of non-financial companies, liable to report under the Companies Act for national statistics purposes. That is 68,125 limited and un- limited liability companies (including listed com- panies) after the formal reorganization of the status of a company, economic interest groupings and main offices of foreign business entities 9 in 2020, 67,178 in 2019, 66,749 in 2018, and 66,470 in 2017. Based on the list of companies at the beginning of bankruptcy, liquidation 10 or termination, also pro- vided by AJPES, the database was supplemented (updated) by 546 observations in 2021, 964 in 2020, 1,205 in 2019, 1,259 in 2018, and 1,210 in 2017. The data on the state aid to mitigate the effects of the pandemicwereretrievedfromERAR,anapplication for the portrayal of public money use in the Re- public of Slovenia. Tocategorizecompaniesinsegments,wedrawon the study by Bole et al. (forthcoming), which eval- uatestheCovid-19supportmeasurestoalleviatethe cost of social distancing at a sectoral level. The au- thors consider two main characteristics, deter- mining the economic losses of a particular sector and consequently classification, namely essentiality of the sector and the ability to organize work from home. Utilities and manufacturing are sectors not susceptible to a large demand shock and were deemed essential, thus could stay open despite the policy of constrained social mobility. A large de- mand shock due to the policy of constrained social mobility is common to a third segment of service sector, which includes inessential (e.g. hospitality, arts) or essential sectors (e.g. transportation). Other service sectors were affected by the policy of con- strained social mobility but had the ability to orga- nize work from home. Taking into account non- pharmaceutical mitigation measures, we could categorize companies in five homogenous seg- ments: manufacturing, construction, utilities, non- vulnerable service segment and vulnerable service segment. The manufacturing segment covers all companies with economic activities in section manufacturing of NACE Rev. 2. The second ana- lysed segment construction includes companies classified in section construction. Utilities encom- pass sections electricity, gas, steam and air condi- tioning supply, as well as water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities of NACE Rev. 2. The non-vulnerable service segment comprises all companies with economic activities Table 3. List of variables and calculation. Variable Calculation of the variable Financial debt (Long-term financial liabilitiesþ Short-term financial liabilities) /Total assets Operating liabilities Short-term operating liabilities/Total assets Operating receivables Short-term operating receivables/Total assets Collateral (Landþ Buildingsþ Other equipment and machinery) /Total assets Operating cash flow (Operating profit - Operating lossþ Write-offs in value) /Total assets Operating cash flow without support measures (Operating profit - Operating lossþ Write-offs in value - State aid 11 )/Total assets Manufacturing A dummy variable with the value 1 if a company is categorized in manufacturing segment (section C of NACE Rev.2) Construction A dummy variable with the value 1 if a company is categorized in con- struction segment (section F of NACE Rev.2) Utilities A dummy variable with the value 1 if a company is categorized in utilities segment (sections D, E of NACE Rev. 2.) Non-vulnerable services A dummy variable with the value 1 if a company is categorized in non- vulnerable service segment (sections K, L, M, N of NACE Rev. 2.) Vulnerable services Adummyvariablewiththevalue1ifacompanyiscategorizedinvulnerable service segment (sections G, H, I, J, R, S, T of NACE Rev. 2.) Cash flow status A categorical variable with the value 0 if a company is inactive, 12 1ifithas operating cash flow <0, 2 if it has operating cash flow >0 Cash flow without support measures A categorical variable with the value 0 if a company is inactive, 1 if it has operating cash flow without support measures <0, 2 if it has operating cash flow without support measures >0 9 Banks, insurance companies, stock exchange, investment funds and certain other financial and investment companies that do not use the accounting standard for companies are not included. 10 Companies in insolvency proceedings (bankruptcy, liquidation) are not required to submit annual reports. 278 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 classified in sections: financial and insurance activ- ities,realestateactivities,professional,scientificand technical activities, and administrative and support serviceactivities.Thefifthsegmentisthevulnerable service segment, and it includes firms from eco- nomic activities in section wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, transportation and storage, accommodation and food service activities, information and communi- cation, arts, entertainment and recreation, other service activities, and activities of households as employers.Agriculture,forestryandfishing,mining and quarrying, government sectors (O-Q) and ac- tivities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies are excluded from the analysis. Table 3 documents definitions and calculation of variables. In the second column of Table 3, with calculations of the variables, we use item names identical to the ones in the original AJPES database. 3 Results 3.1 Performance of companies InTable 4,we presentdescriptive statisticsfor the main variables by segment for the period 2018e2020. Financial debt, short-term operating li- abilities, short-term operating receivables, collat- eral, operating cash flow and operating cash flow without support measures are documented for manufacturing, construction, utilities and both ser- vice segments separately at the first-lower quartile (p25), median (p50) and third-upper quartile (p75). Also, the number of observations is given. Table4andFigs.1e5makeitevidentthatsupport measurespreventedahugedropincashflowforall quartiles of firms and all segments, but failed to prevent its worsening (except for utilities), when only direct grants are considered. A median firm in the vulnerable service sector recorded a decline in cash flow by 29 percent. Without policy interven- tion, the cash flow would decline by more than 50 percent for the firms mentioned, 42 percent for a medianfirminthenon-vulnerableservicesector,36 percent in construction and 27 percent in manufacturing. Taking into account the extent to which support measures were able to sustain cash flow, the median firm of the most vulnerable segment benefited the least in relative terms compared to other segments. The firms with stron- gercashflowposition(upper-quartilefirms)proved tobemoreresilienttotheshockacrossallsegments. Adeclineincashflowwasat13e16percentwithout measures and at 6e9 percent with measures. As already evident vulnerable service segment firms were indeed hit hardest, even more so when the firms in the lower quartile are considered. Their cash flow from operations was negative ( 0.6 percent of the total balance sheet sum) already in the pre-pandemic years and with the pandemic it additionallydeteriorated( 2.8percentwithsupport measures and 4.9 percent without). A quarter of non-vulnerable service sector firms with the weak- est cash flow exhibit a similar pattern, apart from a milder drop in the pandemic year. The solvency of these two subsegments might be endangered. Prior to the pandemic, manufacturing firms had stronger cash flow compared to construction and services, but did not prove more resilient to the shock. Considering a reduction of cash flow in terms of percent of balance sheet sum, a lower-quartile manufacturing firm followed a lower-quartile vulnerable service segment firm. The cash flow was rather stable in 2019 compared to 2018 for all quartiles of firms and all segments. Financial debt variable is especially relevant, when assessing the ability of non-financial corpo- rations, which are not able to sustain positive cash flow from operations, to access debt finance. This includes the instruments made available by the government. According to Bircan et al. (2020), SlovenianSMEshavelittleroomforadditionaldebt. Debt was already on the rise throughout the whole observed period in manufacturing, construction, and services (both non-vulnerable and vulnerable sectors), apart from manufacturing in the pandemic year. The median and upper quartile levels of financial debt in manufacturing decreased to 11.9 percent and to 35.2 percent of the total balance sheet, respectively. Manufacturing firms indeed re- ported a decrease in demand for bank loans for 11 The data on state aid was retrieved from ERAR and represents the state aid in the form of direct grants paid to the non-financial corporations in 2020 rather than the state aid approved for the year 2020. The latter is presented in the profit and loss account in the AJPES database, but after a thorough inspectionsignificantdiscrepancieswerefoundintheapplicationofthestandard15.AccordingtoNote1totheSlovenianAccountingStandard15(Official GazetteoftheRepublicofSlovenia,No.63/20),“organizationsthatwillobtainanystateaid…forthecontainmentoreliminationoftheconsequencesofthe Covid-19 epidemic, must record the state aid received under other operating revenues (Pojasnilo 1, 2020)”. This would correspond to the item AOP124 Subsidies, grants, allowances, compensation, and other revenues associated with products and services in our database. Instead of AOP124, the accurate data on state aid paid to the non-financial corporations in 2020 are used as a proxy for Covid-19 support measures. The state aid paid indeed has a direct effect on liquidity in contrast to the state aid approved. It should, however, be noted that, conceptually, this differs from our approach to evaluating cash flow status, where we assume that firms generate their cash inflows (outflows) from their sales (costs) rather than from their short-term operating re- ceivables (short-term operating liabilities) and cash. 12 Inactive firms are defined as firms at the beginning of bankruptcy, liquidation, or termination. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 279 investments in the first half of 2020 (Bank of Slovenia, 2020). Utilities segment firms, which had the highest level of financial debt, deleveraged in the observed period. The level of financial debt of highly indebted firms (third quartile) in the vulnerable service sector increased most by 3.6 percentage points in the pandemic year. Also, the survey data provided by the Bank of Slovenia show that accommodation and food service activities sectors, classified in vulnerable service segment, increased their indebtedness most. A median and an upper quartile construction segment firm increased their indebtedness in 2019 as well as in 2020, most likely due to the favourable real-estate market conditions. As anticipated, manufacturing and utilities firms have higher available collateral and thus higher capacity to borrow in the times of crisis than firms from construction and services. More than a half of the companies from construction, non-vulnerable service segment and vulnerable service sector had no collateral available, and only one quarter of companies had collateral higher than 12.1 percent, 5.2 percent, and 12.0 percent of total assets, respectively. Almost uniformly across the distribution, short- term operating liabilities declined for firms from all segments in the observed period. Short-term oper- ating liabilities, which could be understood as an alternative source of finance, rose only for utilities segmentfirmsinthelowerquartileinthepandemic year. With the pandemic, the process of deleverag- ing slowed down in manufacturing, construction, and for the upper-quartile firms in services. Service sector firms with lower intercompany indebtedness decreased their indebtedness towards suppliers at a higher pace after the outbreak of the pandemic. Across the whole distribution, construction firms depend on the intercompany debt most. A rather high level of operating liabilities was evident also for firms from the upper quartile in vulnerable service segment firms. Analysing short-term receivables, a similar pattern of decreasing level of receivables can be observed. A drop following the outbreak of the pandemicwasespeciallypronouncedfortheupper- quartilefirmsinmanufacturingandnon-vulnerable service segment firms, and for the half of the firms with higher level of short-term receivables in con- struction. Considering net receivables (short-term receivables less short-term operating liabilities), vulnerable service segment of the first quartile decreasedtheirnetborrowingpositions,asopposed to an increase in other segments. Except in utilities, net lenders managed to decrease their positions in the pandemic year. 3.2 Cash flow dynamics In Table 5, we document the cash flow migration offirmsinthepre-pandemicyearsof2018and2019, and in the pandemic year of 2020, drawing on the Table 4. Financial and intercompany debt, cash flow with and without state aid and potential collateral. Manufacturing Construction Utilities Non-vulnerable service segment Vulnerable service segment Year 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 Total number of companies N 8,153 8,189 8,328 7,134 7,219 7,511 945 938 928 19,901 20,074 20,226 27,521 27,636 28,003 Cash flow p25 0.018 0.021 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.011 0.009 0.015 0.003 0.005 0.011 0.005 0.006 0.028 p50 0.089 0.088 0.074 0.073 0.076 0.063 0.086 0.085 0.089 0.045 0.045 0.035 0.055 0.055 0.039 p75 0.166 0.162 0.150 0.165 0.165 0.152 0.150 0.157 0.167 0.142 0.140 0.131 0.148 0.146 0.133 Cash flow without support measures p25 0.002 0.009 0.012 0.021 0.049 p50 0.064 0.049 0.086 0.026 0.027 p75 0.141 0.140 0.165 0.120 0.123 Financial debt p25 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 p50 0.119 0.127 0.119 0.043 0.069 0.075 0.237 0.230 0.185 0.019 0.029 0.033 0.080 0.097 0.109 p75 0.343 0.357 0.352 0.270 0.298 0.315 0.595 0.569 0.531 0.373 0.392 0.410 0.408 0.422 0.456 Short-term operating receivables p25 0.107 0.097 0.093 0.131 0.115 0.107 0.020 0.018 0.015 0.031 0.029 0.027 0.054 0.053 0.061 p50 0.225 0.211 0.202 0.350 0.330 0.301 0.085 0.083 0.086 0.173 0.166 0.149 0.206 0.201 0.196 p75 0.413 0.398 0.377 0.623 0.601 0.564 0.281 0.280 0.274 0.432 0.429 0.391 0.440 0.433 0.416 Short-term operating liabilities p25 0.120 0.112 0.108 0.138 0.132 0.126 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.042 0.039 0.035 0.109 0.104 0.094 p50 0.244 0.226 0.219 0.331 0.312 0.301 0.112 0.109 0.113 0.181 0.175 0.162 0.280 0.270 0.252 p75 0.458 0.430 0.427 0.586 0.561 0.548 0.328 0.311 0.299 0.442 0.419 0.403 0.563 0.546 0.533 Collateral p25 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 p50 0.078 0.092 0.090 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.060 0.056 0.069 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 p75 0.385 0.390 0.384 0.090 0.113 0.121 0.568 0.540 0.531 0.046 0.051 0.052 0.101 0.115 0.122 Source: AJPES, 2021; author's calculations 280 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 methodology used by Bole et al. (2014). We show how the cash flow in the (current) year T is struc- tured conditional on the cash flow in the previous year T-1. Based on liquidity position, we recognize threecategoriesoffirmsinyearT.First,firmswhich have positive cash flow (greater than zero), second, firms, which have negative cash flow (less than zero), and third, firms, which are inactive. In continuation,wecallfirmswithpositivecashflowin year T-1, which migrate to negative cash flow in year T, the “collapsing” firms, and firms with negative cash flow in year T-1, which improve their performance to positive cash flow in T, the “recov- ering”firms.Thefiguresshownareinpercentofthe total number of companies by segment. From Table 5, it is evident that the Covid-19 pandemic deteriorated liquidity of firms in all seg- ments, but utilities. The segment proved to be Utilities Fig. 5. Cumulative distribution of cash flow per unit of balance sheet withandwithoutsupportmeasuresinyears2018e2020.Source:AJPES, 2021; author's calculations. Vulnerable service segment Fig. 4. Cumulative distribution of cash flow per unit of balance sheet withandwithoutsupportmeasuresinyears2018e2020.Source:AJPES, 2021; author's calculations. Non-vulnerable service segment Fig. 3. Cumulative distribution of cash flow per unit of balance sheet withandwithoutsupportmeasuresinyears2018e2020.Source:AJPES, 2021; author's calculations. 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 -.5 0 .5 Cash flow per unit of balance sheet Year 2020 without support measures Year 2020 8 1 0 2 r a e Y 9 1 0 2 r a e Y Manufacturing Fig. 1. Cumulative distribution of cash flow per unit of balance sheet withandwithoutsupportmeasuresinyears2018e2020.Source:AJPES, 2021; author's calculations. 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 -.5 0 .5 Cash flow per unit of balance sheet Year 2020 without support measures Year 2020 8 1 0 2 r a e Y 9 1 0 2 r a e Y Construction Fig. 2. Cumulative distribution of cash flow per unit of balance sheet withandwithoutsupportmeasuresinyears2018e2020.Source:AJPES, 2021; author's calculations. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 281 resilient to the shock caused by the pandemic with an increase in the share of recovering firms and firmswhichwereabletomaintainpositivecashflow with policy intervention. There was only a minor increaseintheshareofcollapsingfirms.Comparing the proportions offirms by category (e.g. positive to positive) with and without measures for years 2019 and2020,policyinterventionwasshownnottohave a statistically significant effect in helpingfirms from utilities to maintain their pre-pandemic liquidity position. In continuation, the utilities segment as a notable exception is excluded from the analysis. The share of firms (overall) migrating to negative cash flow increased by 5.5 percentage points (z¼ 21.17, p¼ 0.000) to more than 30 percent in the pandemicyearof2020.Absentmeasurestheshareof firms with negative cash flow would surge by more than 9 percentage points to almost 35 percent. Alreadyinthepre-pandemicyearfirmswithnegative cash flow accounted for more than one quarter of bothservicesegmentfirmsandevenstrengthenedto 32.6percentofnon-vulnerableservicesectorand33.1 percentofvulnerableservicesectorin2020.Without policy intervention, additional 3e5 percent of com- panies in each segment would migrate to negative cash flow. This represents around 2,400 firms, 1,200 from vulnerable service sector. Despite minor dif- ferences across segments, the policy intervention seems to be targeted properly for the highest share (4.6 percent, z¼ 10.90, p¼ 0.000) of firms from the Table 5. The cash flow migration matrix. Year Negative to inactive Negative to negative Negative to positive Positive to inactive Positive to negative Positive to positive Total number of companies Manufacturing 2018 0.87 10.32 6.23 0.56 6.79 75.24 7,693 2019 0.79 10.51 6.13 0.35 6.68 75.54 7,751 2020 0.53 11.43 5.64 0.27 11.00 71.13 7,867 H 0 :p 19 -p 20 ¼ 0 * * *** *** 2020 without support measures 0.53 11.89 5.19 0.27 14.22 67.90 7,867 H 0 :p 20 -p 20w ¼ 0ee *** *** Construction 2018 1.23 12.67 8.77 0.54 7.26 69.53 6,268 2019 0.95 11.80 6.86 0.60 8.89 70.90 6,330 2020 0.56 13.55 6.88 0.38 12.63 66.00 6,618 H 0 :p 19 -p 20 ¼ 0 ** *** * *** *** 2020 without support measures 0.56 14.12 6.30 0.38 16.15 62.49 6,618 H 0 :p 20 -p 20w ¼ 0 *** *** Utilities 2018 0.79 13.80 4.26 0.22 3.25 77.67 891 2019 0.56 13.23 4.60 0.22 4.82 76.57 892 2020 0.23 12.59 5.22 0.23 4.99 76.76 882 H 0 :p 19 -p 20 ¼ 0 2020 without support measures 0.23 12.70 5.10 0.23 5.90 75.85 882 H 0 :p 20 -p 20w ¼ 0ee Non-vulnerable service segment 2018 1.02 19.25 9.42 0.55 8.22 61.54 18,482 2019 1.12 18.85 8.48 0.69 9.41 61.46 18,742 2020 0.90 20.26 8.29 0.49 12.35 57.70 19,084 H 0 :p 19 -p 20 ¼ 0 ** *** ** *** *** 2020 without support measures 0.90 20.86 7.69 0.49 15.23 54.83 19,084 H 0 :p 20 -p 20w ¼ 0 e ** e *** *** Vulnerable service segment 2018 1.19 17.66 8.97 0.55 8.44 63.19 25,293 2019 1.15 17.46 8.46 0.53 8.97 63.43 25,454 2020 0.86 18.95 7.89 0.41 14.10 57.78 25,949 H 0 :p 19 -p 20 ¼ 0 *** *** ** ** *** *** 2020 without support measures 0.86 19.66 7.18 0.41 18.01 53.89 25,949 H 0 :p 20 -p 20w ¼ 0 e ** *** e *** *** Note: A two sample proportions test is used; ***, **, and * denote statistically significant values at 1, 5, and 10% on a two-tailed test, respectively. Source: AJPES, 2021; author's calculations 282 ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 vulnerable service segment, prevented from migratingtonegativecashflow.Strikingly,theshare of inactive firms did not increase in the year of pandemic.Therewasadecreaseintheshareoffirms migrating to inactive from positive cash flow and negativecashflowalike.Thiscouldindicatethatthe Covid-19 measures sustained also de facto dead companies. The number of companies migrating from negative cash flow to inactive dropped by 37 percent in construction ( 0.4 percentage points, z¼2.56,p¼0.010),28percentinmanufacturing( 0.3 percentage points, z ¼ 1.95, p ¼ 0.050), 23 percent ( 0.3 percentage points, z ¼ 3.23, p ¼ 0.001) in vulnerable and 22 ( 0.2 percentage points, z¼ 2.08, p¼0.037)innon-vulnerableservicesector. After the outbreak of the pandemic, around 60 percent of firms (down from 65 percent) in the analysed segments were able to sustain positive cash flow. Positive to positive cash flow firms accountedforthelowestpartoffirmsinbothservice segments (58 percent), followed by construction (66 percent) and manufacturing (70 percent) in 2020. Along the same lines, the share of firms migrating from positive to negative (the so-called “collapsing firms”) was the lowest in manufacturing at 11 percent despite a marked increase in 2020. Collapsing firms accounted for 12.4 percent of the non-vulnerable service segment, 12.6 percent of the construction segment, and 14.1 percent of all firms in vulnerable service segment. Without policy intervention, additional 2e4 percent (see sixth col- umn in Table 5) of companies from each sector wouldmigratefrompositivetonegativecashflowor (potentially) to inactivity, and around one sixth of firms would be collapsing. Again, the highest share of firms from vulnerable service sector was able to sustainpositivecashflowduetopolicyintervention. However, when the number of firms which are not able to sustain positive cash flow with measures is comparedtothenumberoffirmswhicharenotable to sustain positive cash flow without measures, the lowest share of firms benefited. In the pre-pandemic years, the percentage of collapsingfirmsinmanufacturingwasratherstable, but not in construction and services. Worsening of liquidity position was evident already in 2019 with an increase in the share of collapsing firms. The share of recovering firms, which migrate from negative cash flow in year T-1 to positive cash flow in year T, decreased in the observed period in all four segments, most notably in construction (see third column in Table 5). The recovery was further depressed by the pandemic in manufacturing and both service segments, though, negligibly for non- vulnerable service segment firms. Policy interven- tion enabled to at most 0.7 percent of firms (z¼2.05, p ¼ 0.040) in the vulnerable service segment to migrate from negative to positive cash flow in the pandemic year. 13 4 Discussion of the results with reference to the Great Recession and conclusion As discussed in the introduction, Bole et al. (2014) analysed cash flow migration and illiquidity conta- gion of firms in Slovenia during the Great Reces- sion. It was shown that liquidity of non-financial corporations deteriorated sharply in the first years afterthecrisisandwasslowtorecover.Theshareof firms which were able to sustain positive cash flow in 2009 plummeted by more than 8 percent and the decrease is comparable to the shock posed by the pandemic to the non-financial corporations’ cash flows absent measures. The cash flow of non- financialcompaniescontinuedtodeterioratefortwo yearsafterthepreviouscrisisemergedandthelevel of firms able to sustain positive cash flow had not yet reached the pre-crisis level in 2012, the last year included in the study. The policy response to the pandemic was considerably more decisive and ensured additional 3.4 percent of firms to sustain positive cash flow, 0.6 percent of firms to recover and a decrease in the share of inactive firms. As mainly companies with positive cash flow in the pre-pandemic year received support, this indicates to a well-targeted intervention but with a probable malfunction, i.e. sustaining de facto dead com- panies, which do not migrate to inactivity due to support received. It should, however, be noted that the support measures included in the analysis are for the most part employment support measures, which indeed account for more than 35 percent of all public sup- port to counter the pandemic-induced crisis but are not the only significant type of support. Accurate data on other types of support, e.g. the option of deferring tax liabilities for up to 24 months, relief fromthepaymentofsocialsecuritycontributions,or debt moratoria on payments deriving from all lia- bilities under loan agreements for up to 12 months, are not available through ERAR, which only pro- vides data on directly paid out grants by the date of payment. Since our methodological approach is based on the state aid paid and not approved, the 13 The rules prohibit state aid to firms in financial distress on 31st of December 2019. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW 2021;23:273e285 283 policy measures are estimated to positively contribute to corporate liquidity also in 2021. For example, reimbursement of fixed costs was approved for the last quarter of 2020, but is only paid out in 2021. The effects of the policy interven- tion are thus underestimated in 2020 and are to be reflected in non-financial corporation's financial statements also in 2021 and in the following years. Another limitation of the study is related to the methodology used. A simple descriptive analysis falls short of providing an insight into the trans- mission mechanism behind it. One possible avenue for future research would thus be building an eco- nomic model to explain the transmission mecha- nism. Another recommendation for future research would relate to sectoral analysis, which is based on the criteria of essentiality and ability to work from home. Contact-intensity, complexity of the supply chain, intangible-intensity, reliance on debt finance and size would be equally relevant criteria for cat- egorisation into segments. Accounting for (only) directly paid out grants, a huge drop in cash flow for all quartiles offirms and all segments was avoided, but not worsening. A notableexceptionwereutilities,whichstrengthened their cash flow position without and even more so with public support. The result is not statistically significant, but it still raises the question of mis- targeting the beneficiaries. Cirera et al. (2021) find that firms not experiencing any shock received support. Another result of our study is equivalent, namelythatsectorswithalargereductioninsalesor cashflowweremorelikelytoreceivesupport.Table 5 makes it evident that when we consider the pro- portion of firms which were prevented from migrating to negative cash flow, the highest share (number) of recipients in absolute terms was from the most vulnerable service segment. Also, the highest share (number) of firms from vulnerable service segment (4 percent) sustained positive cash flow due to support measures. However, when the number of firms which are not able to sustain pos- itive cash flow with measures is compared to the number of firms which are not able to sustain pos- itive cash flow without measures, the lowest share benefited. A median firm in the vulnerable service segment also recorded the highest decline in cash flow by 29 percent. Without policy intervention, the cash flow would decline by more than 50 percent and would be disastrous. The support measures compensated for a considerable part of a reduction in cash flow, but compared to other sectors for the lowest when a median firm is considered. The approach “whatever is necessary” in form of “flat” public support might thus lead to suboptimally targeted beneficiaries. With hindsight to the Great Recession, a question ofdisturbancesintheprovisionofbankcredittothe non-financial corporations to cover the estimated liquidity gap of 0.6 billion euros (cash flow from operations) remains. In the recovery period of the Great Recession, adverse developments in the non- financial corporations’ sector liquidity could be in part attributed toerraticpolicy response (Bole et al., 2014). Procyclical macroprudential policy interven- tion intensified the process of collateralization and credit rationing and thus limited the access to needed liquidity and hindered recovery of the non- financial corporations. So far, it seems that the lesson has been learned. The governments and the European Union institutions concerned acted in concert to prevent massive illiquidity and bank- ruptcies.Thepoliciesare aligned andexceptional in size (intensity). For instance, macroprudential re- quirements across seven categories were eased at a supranational level and national macroprudential authorities were expected to act accordingly. The countercyclicalcapitalbuffer,whichalreadystoodat zero inSlovenia, wasloweredorfully released in11 European countries. The macroprudential author- ities in Estonia, Finland and the Netherlands used additional instruments at their disposal, whereas the macroprudential authorities seem to be more conservative in Slovenia. The restrictions to profit distributions were introduced in April 2020, but otherwise the policy toolkit remained unchanged. In the second quarter of 2020, banks reported, on balance, broadly unchanged credit standards in the euro area, but notin Slovenia. 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