.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) X X o o fO .Q cu Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 2 / Vol. XX / 2014 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Urška Brodar, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Mateja Kovač, MSc, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................21 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................23 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q4 2013.....................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Agricultural output in 2013....................................................................................................................................13 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................27 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In the final quarter of last year economic activity in the euro area continued to grow, and the European Commission raised slightly its forecasts for this year and 2015. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, economic growth rose by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted) and was 0.5% higher than in the same period of 2012. Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners continued, being higher than predicted by the Commission particularly in Spain and Portugal. In its winter forecast the Commission expects somewhat higher (by 0.1 percentage points) GDP growth in the euro area this year and in 2015 (1.2 and 1.8%, respectively) than projected in the autumn. In addition to net exports, it will be based on domestic demand and remains associated with similar risks as in the autumn (insufficient reforms and their slow implementation; financial fragmentation; low inflation; slower growth in emerging market economies). Economic activity in 2013 overall was down 1.1% on the previous year despite fourth-quarter growth. The latest SURS figures show that economic activity, which had ceased to decline quarter-on-quarter at the beginning of 2013, strengthened substantially in the final quarter and was up year-on-year (2.1%) for the first time since the third quarter of 2011. This was mainly a result of gross fixed capital formation, which was up in year-on-year terms for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, while private consumption remained unchanged year-on-year. The contribution of net exports was negative amid slightly lower growth in exports and higher growth in imports. Government consumption was down again year-on-year. Value added in the final quarter was higher or approximately the same as in the same period of 2012 in most sectors. It rose most in construction, while falling again in financial and insurance services. The labour market situation deteriorated further at the end of last and the beginning of this year. Having stagnated until November, employment fell slightly in December (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted). In 2013 overall the number of employed persons was down 2.0% on the previous year mainly due to a decline in the construction and manufacturing sectors. After the sharp increases in December and January, registered unemployment grew further in February (up 0.5%, seasonally adjusted), with 129,764 persons registered as unemployed at the end of the month, 5,698 more than in the previous February. The increase was mainly a result of a larger inflow into unemployment, in particular due to the expiration of fixed-term contracts, but also as a result of a larger number of first-time jobseekers. The average gross earnings per employee rose in the final quarter of 2013 amid the otherwise lowest extraordinary year-end payments in the last nine years. In 2013 overall the average gross earnings per employee increased year-on-year in the private sector (0.6%), while being down in the public sector (-1.3%) owing to a decline in the general government (-2.5%) as a consequence of a full-year effect of the ZUJF and a further reduction in public servants' earnings. Consumer prices remained almost unchanged in February, similar to those in February 2013. Modest 0.1% monthly growth was a result of lower prices of liquid fuels and vegetables. Year-on-year growth eased markedly in February (by 0.7 percentage points to 0.1%), particularly on account of lower prices of liquid fuels and durable and semi-durable goods, and continues to reflect a long period of shrinking economic activity and deteriorating labour market conditions. The situation in the Slovenian banking sector stopped deteriorating at the beginning of this year. In January the stock of household and government deposits rose. Household loans declined half less than in December last year. Corporate and NFI loans were up for the first time in two years, however only due to the borrowing by NFIs. In December enterprises and NFIs deleveraged abroad for the second consecutive month. They were mainly repaying long-term loans. Bank deleveraging abroad slowed further at the end of last year, so that in 2013 overall banks repaid EUR 2.1 bn, which is less than in the previous two years. With EUR 3.2 bn of bad claims transferred to the DUTB, the volume of bad claims shrank in December. The total decline was nevertheless fairly modest (by EUR 400 m to EUR 8.2 bn) due to a concurrent inflow of B-rated claims impaired due to a different valuation of the collateral. In 2013 as a whole the volume of bad claims rose by EUR 1.5 bn, which is the highest figure to date. The vigorous creation of impairments and provisions seen at the beginning of the banking system stabilisation at the end of 2013 eased strongly in January. As a consequence of lower revenue and higher expenditure, the general government deficit rose by EUR 431 m to EUR 1.56 bn in 2013. Lower revenue (-1.8%) was a result of lower revenues from taxes, which were down 3.6% on 2012, despite higher revenue from VAT (by 4.3%) due to the increase in VAT rates in June 2013 and measures to reduce the grey economy. Non-tax revenues were up 8.0% mainly due to EU funds and July's increase in dividends. Higher expenditure (1.0%) mainly reflected higher interest payments (up 29.7%) and higher expenditure on investment (up 12.7%). ■o £ Q) E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment In the last quarter of 2013 the economic recovery in the euro area continued. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, economic growth rose by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted) and was 0.5% higher than in the same period of 2012. Somewhat higher GDP growth than projected by the European Commission in November (by 0.1 percentage points) was mainly due to higher growth rates in Spain and Portugal. Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners, Germany, Italy, Austria and France, was also up relative to the third quarter. According to the short-term indicators of economic activity, the euro area recovery continued in the last quarter due to higher production volume in manufacturing, which was up 0.6% compared with the third quarter of the year (seasonally adjusted). Turnover in retail trade (-0.7%) and construction output (-1.0%) declined. Confidence and business climate indicators for the euro area indicate a further pick-up of economic growth in February, as the composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remain at their highest levels since mid-2011. will be, according to the Commission, a consequence of improved confidence and reduced tensions related to deleveraging, difficulties in access to funding and fiscal consolidation. Exports will increase due to higher external demand, but owing to increased imports, net exports will contribute less to economic growth than they used to in previous years. The downside risks remain similar to those in the autumn. The European Commission sees the main risk in stalling or partial implementation of structural, fiscal and institutional reforms at Member States or European level. Growth could also be impeded by a slow reduction in financial fragmentation2 where progress depends on establishing the banking union and cleaning up the banks' balance sheets after the asset quality reviews and stress tests. Low inflation in the euro area is another risk, as it could increase the debt burden over a longer period. Furthermore, economic growth in the euro area could also be lower than forecast on account of heightened financial instability and slower economic activity in emerging countries. On the other hand, a positive contribution to growth would come from further structural reforms, which would boost confidence and, if credit terms stabilise, growth in investment. Figure 1: Quarterly growth rates of GDP in selected trading partners Q1 13 «02 13 »03 13 «04 13 -Q4 13 forecast EC 1.2 Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts by international institutions for 2014 and 2015 Source: Eurostat, forecast by the European Commission (November 2013). The European Commission projects a further strengthening of euro area economic activity in its winter forecast. It predicts somewhat higher (by 0.1 percentage points) GDP growth this year and in 2015 (1.2% and 1.8%, respectively) than anticipated in the autumn. Growth is expected to be mainly based on higher domestic demand,1 which 1 With private consumption and gross fixed capital formation set to increase the most. Growth in private consumption will pick up as a result of improved labour market conditions, higher real disposable income due to low inflation, and a winding down of fiscal consolidation. Investment, particularly in machinery and equipment, will increase due to the need to replace an ageing capital stock, more favourable credit conditions and higher profit margins. 2014 2015 OECD nov 13 IMF jan 14 CONS feb 14 EC feb 14 OECD nov 13 IMF jan 14 CONS feb 14 EC feb 14 EU N/A 1.4 1.4 1.5 N/A 1.7 1.7 2.0 EMU 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.8 DE 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.0 IT 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 AT 1.7 N/A 1.5 1.5 2.2 N/A 1.9 1.8 FR 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.7 HR N/A N/A 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A 1.5 1.2 RUS 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.7 US 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 Source: OECD Economic Outlook (November 2013). IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2014). European Economic Forecast Winter 2014 (February 2014). Consensus Forecasts (February 2014). Note: N/A - not available. In February the required yields of government bonds declined slightly again in most euro area countries, mainly due to the favourable data on economic growth in the euro area in the last quarter of 2013. The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged in February and the short-term interbank interest rates remained similar to January's. The ECB's key interest rate remained at 0.25%. In view of the expected subdued economic activity and, in turn, low inflation, the key interest rate is not expected to be raised over the short term. The monetary market otherwise recorded a slight increase in interest rates with 2 Particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, which are more dependent on bank loans, find it difficult to obtain finance due to financial market fragmentation. Table2: Interest rates of the monetary market and the exchange rates of the national currencies against the euro Interest rates average, in % change, in b. p. 2013 II 13 I 14 II 14 II 14/I 14 II 14/II 13 3-month EURIBOR rate 0.220 0.223 0.292 0.288 -0.4 7.0 3-month USD LIBOR rate 0.268 0.292 0.238 0.235 -0.3 -6.0 3-month CHF LIBOR rate 0.021 0.024 0.023 0.018 -0.5 -0.6 Exchange rates average change, in % 2013 II 13 I 14 II 14 II 14/I 14 II 14/II 13 EUR/USD 1.328 1.336 1.361 1.365 0.3 2.2 EUR/CHF 1.231 1.229 1.232 1.223 -0.8 -0.7 EUR/GBP 0.849 0.863 0.827 0.825 -0.2 -4.4 EUR/JPY 129.66 124.40 141.47 139.32 -1.5 12.0 Source: Euribor, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Oil average change, in % 2013 II 13 I 14 II 14 II 14/I 14 II 14/II 13 Brent USD 108.56 116.05 108.12 108.90 0.7 -6.2 Brent EUR 81.66 86.71 78.76 79.42 0.8 -8.4 Commodities change, in % 2013/2012 I 14/XII 13 I 14/I 13 Non-energy commoditites -1.2 -1.1 -6.3 Food 1.1 -1.0 -5.5 Agricultural raw materials 1.4 -0.8 4.3 Metals -4.2 -1.5 -12.8 Source: EIA, ECB, IMF, calculations by IMAD. Figure 2: Yields on ten-year government bonds --Spain Austria 16 Si 12 .Q 10 E !Z 8 o 6 ^^ 4 0 Source: Bloomberg. Note: To monitor the movement of 10-year gov. bond yields on the common EU market, a new benchmark gov. bond is used as the basis for comparison as of 1 January 2014. The data before and after this date are therefore not comparable. Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. a shorter maturity at the beginning of February, but they dropped slightly at the end of the month, mainly as a result of the movements in the average excess liquidity, which remains low. Euro area banks have thus far repaid EUR 454 bn of the total of EUR 1,019 bn of liquidity obtained in both LTROs. Figure 4: Non-energy commodity prices in dollars 260 240 220 200 =2 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 - Non-energy commodities ■ Agricultural raw materials Economic developments in Slovenia Merchandise exports continued to grow in the last quarter of 2013 (1.2%, seasonally adjusted).3 Real growth otherwise slowed slightly relative to Q3 (2.1%) due to somewhat weaker growth in exports to the EU, but extra-EU exports rose after two quarters of decline. According to the available4 data, total growth eased on account of the slightly less favourable movements in products, which had been the main drivers of the recovery of exports in the first half of the year (medical and pharmaceutical products and oil and oil derivatives). On the other hand, exports of machinery and equipment, the main Table 4: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2012 XII 13/ XI 13 XII 13/XII 12 I-XII 13/ I-XII 12 Exports1 1.9 -8.6 7.9 2.6 -goods 0.8 -13.1 8.0 2.1 -services 6.7 12.1 7.8 5.0 Imports1 -2.6 -8.6 1.1 -1.1 -goods -3.0 -12.7 1.2 -1.4 -services -0.1 19.5 0.3 1.4 Industrial production -1.1 4.92 5.23 -0.73 -manufacturing -2.3 3.42 4.83 -1.33 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.8 -17.22 4.43 -2.93 Real turnover in retail trade -2.3 0.32 -0.13 -3.23 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -2.8 -1.52 -0.63 -0.33 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. component of Slovenia's merchandise exports, picked up in Q4 according to our estimate. Having been rising in all four quarters of the year, real merchandise exports rose by 2.9% in 2013 after the stagnation in 2012. Figure 5: Merchandise exports - geographical distribution rl I -Extra EU a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Real growth in merchandise imports picked up in the last quarter of 2013 (1.7%, seasonally adjusted).5 According to the available6 data, their total growth increased primarily on account of imports of intermediate goods, which are estimated to be partly due to growth in manufacturing production and, to some extent, larger imports of fuels. Imports of investment goods were also up, according to our estimate, while imports of consumer goods remained Figure 6: Merchandise imports by end-use product -Imports of investment goods* -Imports of intermediate groods* — Imports of consumer goods* a a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *Data for Q4 2013 are based on data for October and November. 3 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 4 Detailed data according to the external trade statistics are available up to and including November 2013. 5 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 6 Detailed data according to the external trade statistics are available up to and including November 2013. Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q4 2013 Economic growth increased substantially in the last quarter of 2013 (1.2%, seasonally adjusted) and was up year-on-year (2.1%) for the first time since Q3 2011. According to the most recent SURS figures, GDP was up year-on-year mainly as household consumption ceased to decline and gross fixed capital formation rose relative to the same period of the previous year (5.9%) for the first time during the crisis. Investment in non-residential buildings and constructions was higher in particular, which is, in our estimation, related to higher public investment co-financed by EU funds. Amid the continuation of the economic recovery in the international environment, in the EU in particular, exports continued to rise (3.7%), but the contribution of net exports to the total year-on-year change in GDP was negative (-0.7%) as imports increased (4.9%) substantially more than in the third quarter due to higher domestic consumption. Government consumption continued to drop in year-on-year terms (-1.9%), this time mainly due to the savings measures in the health and social work sector, according to SURS figures. A significant contribution to the change in GDP once again came from changes in inventories, but this time the contribution was positive (2.2 percentage points). The latest data by SURS show that economic activity did not decline continuously in the previous three quarters as recorded in the first release of the third quarter data, meaning that the decline in GDP in 2013 (-1.1%) was much smaller than a year earlier (-2.5%). Value added in Q4 was up 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), being higher year-on-year for the first time in eight quarters (1.4%). Amid higher production volume, value added in manufacturing was up year-on-year for the first time in 2013 (2.1%). Boosted by increased government investment, value added in the construction sector, which had already been rising continuously throughout the previous two quarters according to the latest figures published by SURS, was up year-on-year for the first time during the crisis (7.7%). Growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors also contributed to stronger growth in the traditional market services (wholesale trade, transportation). The relatively strong year-on-year growth in value added in information and communication activities continued, with value added also rising substantially in other service activities (R, S, T). By contrast, value added remained down year-on-year in real estate (L) and professional and scientific activities (M, N), while the year-on-year decline in financial and insurance activities K) continued to deepen. Figure 7: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners —♦—Slovenia -Germany ---------France Figure 8: GDP expenditure structure, Slovenia 106 104 Ei 102 100 C^Q 98 >< 01 TD EE 96 iS 94 ro J^ 92 ro C Is 90 cu on 88 86 ---Italy - Austria Croatia \ Xi________ -V ! i / 1 1 coCrtCrtCDCD^-^-r^r^r^m Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. KW Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services -Real GDP growth (right axis) ,,, 20 15 10 0 o -5 (p 'Š -15 o -20 -25 -30 Government consumption Ch. in inventories and valuables Imports of goods and services 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1^ Q. -4 C^ -6 oc -8 -10 -12 a a Source: SURS. roughly unchanged from the previous quarter despite further growth in imports of passenger cars. After the 5.1% fall in 2012, merchandise imports rose 1.5% last year. Real exports of services declined again in Q4 2013, while imports rose substantially (seasonally adjusted).7 In our assessment, the real fall in exports (-0.7%) was mainly attributable to lower exports of construction services, which had been rising in previous quarters. The overall decline was mitigated by rising exports of other business services. The strengthening of real growth in imports (2.1%) was primarily driven by higher imports of 7 According to the National Accounts Statistics. Data by individual types of services are based on the balance of payments statistics. 5 Figure 9:Trade in services - real -Exports -Imports 110 J=105 II ?§ O (N ^<100 -Ö != 95 "0 e2013 / 2012 (right axis) 700 ^ ♦ 20^3/2003-2012 average (right axis) Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 140 120 60 ^ 40 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. > 1 Source: SURS, Real income from agriculture - second estimate, Slovenia, 2013. Figure 17: Turnover in the sale of non-food products - Sale of medical and cosmetic products -Sale of textiles, clothing and footwear • Sale of furniture, construction material ■ Sale of computer, telecom. equipment, books and sports equip. a a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. discount stores10 amid the unfavourable situation and uncertainty on the labour market. On the other hand, turnover in the sale of automotive fuels increased, in our assessment as a result of increased trade in other goods and services that are also sold by companies registered in this activity,11 as the quantity of automotive fuels sold declined relative to 2012. Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)^^ dropped in the final quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted) and was down slightlyyear-on-year in 2013 overall. Turnover in administrative and support service activities recorded the largest decline of all main services in Q4 but remained up year-on-year mainly on account of growth in employment services. Turnover in information and communication services was also slightly higher than in the same period 10 Switching from name brands to lower-priced store brands, purchasing products on sale and promotions, shopping in several stores. 11 Such as electricity, natural gas, merchandise and some services. 12 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 100 80 c 20 0 of the previous year although it was down again in Q4. Turnover in telecommunications was rising, but turnover in computer programming dropped. Regardless of the small quarterly fall, turnover in transport services also rose relative to the same period of the previous year, mainly as a result of growth in land transport,13 transport by rail in particular. The largest Q4 2013 increase was recorded by turnover in professional and technical services, primarily owing to growth in engineering services as a result of the revival in the construction sector, but turnover nevertheless remained down year-on-year due to a substantial decline in accounting services.14 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities rose further in Q4 2013, being markedly higher than in Q4 2012. In 2013 overall, the most pronounced year-on-year declines were posted by turnover in professional and technical services and turnover in accommodation and food service activities, the largest increase being recorded in administrative and support service activities. Only transport services enjoyed larger turnover than in 2008, while turnover in professional and technical services lagged the most behind. Figure 18: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) Figure 19: Business trends -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional-technical activ. (M) -Administrative and support service activ.(N) -----Accommodation and food service activ. (I) a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Economic sentiment and confidence among consumers, which had been rising since mid-2013, remained unchanged in February. A slight improvement was recorded only in manufacturing, while confidence in retail trade declined. In other sectors (construction and service activities) and among consumers, confidence remained around the same level as in January, when it picked up across the board. 13 In Q3 2013 road and rail transport was up 3.9% and 13.4% year-on-year, respectively. 14 In Q4 2013 the value of construction put in place increased by 12.5% relative to the previous quarter. - Economic sentiment Retail trade - Construction Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market The number of employed persons15 has been basically unchanged since spring 2013 despite a slight fall in December. The decline in employment seen since the end of 2008 had come to a halt in April and remained more or less unchanged until the end of the year. The number of employed persons otherwise started to increase again in the constructions sector (until November), Table 5: Indicators of labour market trends in % 2012 XII 13/ XI 13 XII 13/ XII 12 I-XII 13/ I-XII 12 Labour force -1.5 -0.2 0.5 -0.7 Persons in formal employment -1.7 -0.1' -0.2 -2.0 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -1.6 -1.0 -0.8 -2.6 Registered unemployed -0.5 0.6^ 5.0 8.8 Average nominal gross wage 0.1 0.0^ 0.7 -0.2 - private sector 0.5 0.1' 1.9 0.6 - public sector -0.9 0.5^ -1.0 -1.3 -of which general government -2.2 0.1' -1.4 -2.5 2012 XII 12 XI 13 XII 13 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.0 12.8 13.2 13.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,525.47 1,534.54 1,617.19 1,544.85 Private sector (in EUR) 1,395.84 1,398.56 1,533.94 1,425.54 Public sector (in EUR) 1,762.88 1,782.87 1,771.14 1,764.57 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,761.15 1,748.82 1,720.04 1,724.50 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'seasonally adjusted. 15 According to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE); these are employed and self-employed persons excluding self-employed farmers. Table 6: Employed persons by activity Number in '000 Change in Number 2012 XII 12 XI 13 XII 13 2012/ 2011 XII 13/ XI 13 XII 13/ XII 12 I-XII 13/ I-XII 12 Manufacturing 182.9 178.4 178.3 177.0 -1,919 -1337 -1389 -5,235 Construction 59.8 53.5 55.8 52.0 -8,047 -3,718 -1,458 -5,541 Market services 338.4 333.4 334.5 333.5 -3,805 -1,008 32 -5,260 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 107.8 106.4 104.1 103.8 -1,848 -299 -2,609 -3,656 Public services 171.6 170.2 170.8 170.2 1,438 -607 -41 -1,489 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 50.7 49.6 49.0 48.9 -650 -160 -756 -1,559 Education 65.5 65.3 65.8 65.6 778 -197 370 -71 Human health and social work activities 55.4 55.3 55.9 55.7 1,311 -250 345 141 Other 57.3 57.4 58.9 58.6 -1,632 -239 1,231 1,121 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 20: Employed according to the statistical register of employment (SRE) and registered unemployed -Employed according to SRE (left axis) Registered unemployed (right axis) Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 21: Employed persons by activity ■ 04 2012 BQI 2013 102 2013 103 2013 0.5 104 2013 being also up, albeit less, in market and public services. In the manufacturing sector employment continued to fall. In December the number of employed persons fell slightly (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted). A larger fall than typical for the end of the year was seen particularly in the construction sector (in our estimation, owing to the expiry of a large number of fixed-term contracts). In 2013 overall, employment was down 2.0% year-on-year, the decline being largest in the construction and manufacturing sectors. As a result of a larger average number of registered unemployed, the registered unemployment rate also rose last year (by 1.1 percentage points to 13.1%) and was highest since 1999. The number of registered unemployed increased further at the beginning of the year. After the surge in January (0.6%, seasonally adjusted), registered unemployment rose again in February (0.5%, seasonally adjusted). At Table 7: Unemployment flows Manufacturing Construction Market Public services services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. I-XII 12 I-XII 13 II 13 II 14 INFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED -TOTAL 106,858 108,344 7,404 7,973 Jobseekers who lost work 16,272 19,071 1,096 1,378 bankruptcy of the company 90,330 88,710 6,294 6,581 business reasons or compulsory settlement 4,609 3,732 163 298 termination of fixed-term contracts 20,130 17,896 1,361 1,433 other reasons 50,911 54,004 3,736 3,810 First-time jobseekers 14,680 13,078 1,034 1,040 Other (transitions between records) 256 563 14 14 OUTFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 101,551 102,390 7,596 8,052 Unemployed who found work 58,324 65,054 4,807 5,977 public works 3,724 5,423 691 1,418 self-employment 4,195 5,789 286 254 transitions into inactivity 15,015 13,295 813 810 retirement 10,523 8,511 531 483 Breaches of regulations 19,495 14,772 1,261 656 Other (transfer to other registers, other) 8,717 9,269 715 609 Table 8: Earnings by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2012 XII 2013 2012/ 2011 XII 13/ XI 13 XII 13/ XII 12 I-XII 13/ I-XII 12 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,463.64 1,499.86 0.8 -6.1 1.5 0.7 Industry (B-E) 1,444.29 1,500.76 2.5 -9.9 3.1 2.6 - of which manufacturing 1,397.25 1,449.05 2.5 -10.6 3.9 2.8 Construction 1,205.65 1,183.75 -2.5 -1.6 -0.5 -1.4 Traditional services (G-I) 1,354.04 1,386.61 0.3 -5.2 2.0 0.1 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,713.36 1,731.95 -0.3 -2.6 -1.0 -1.3 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,710.91 1,678.56 -2.2 0.1 -1.5 -2.3 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,752.03 1,724.03 -1.8 -0.4 -1.5 -1.4 - Education 1,676.80 1,623.87 -3.3 0.0 -1.1 -3.3 - Human health and social work activities 1,712.37 1,703.20 -1.3 0.8 -1.8 -2.0 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. the end of February 129,764 persons were registered in the unemployment register, 5,698 (4.6%) more than in February last year and a similar number as in January (79 persons fewer), according to original data. The increase in registered unemployment was, as in January, mainly the result of a large inflow of unemployed persons due to the expiration of fixed-term contracts and first-time jobseekers. The outflow from the register was somewhat larger than usual for that month of the year primarily due to increased participation in public works. The dynamics of earnings at the end of the year were, as usual, marked by extraordinary payments, but they were the lowest in nine years. The average gross earnings per employee nevertheless increased again in Q4 2013 (0.3%, seasonally adjusted) on account of growth in the private sector,16 which had been rising steadily in 2013 and reached the highest level in the last quarter of the year (0.5%). Gross earnings in the government sector remained unchanged from the previous quarter, for the first time Figure 22: Average gross earnings per employee -Total -----Private sector -Public sector ---- -of which, general government sector — -of which, public corporations 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 __ ........... // y" J' J / ____________i--""' ! ' ' .........................j...™^—. r ,........................^j.... ,. ....... ^, -" r- . : • • since they started to fall continuously in the middle of 2011. In the public sector as a whole, gross earnings fell by 0.3% due to a sharp decline in public corporations17 (-4.5%), which recorded considerably lower 13'h month payments and Christmas bonuses than a year earlier for the third year in a row.18 A total of EUR 79.9 m was disbursed in extraordinary year-end payments in the last two months of 2013 (EUR 85.3 m a year earlier, and EUR 156.4 m in 2007, when year-end payments were highest). Extraordinary payments in private corporations, which account for the largest share of extraordinary payments, were up 1.5% year-on-year. December's extraordinary payments totalled EUR 17 m, more than a fifth less than in December 2012; compared with November, their average amount was more than half lower, and they were received by much fewer employees (8.8%; in November, 14.1%). In 2013 gross earnings per employee remained almost unchanged in nominal terms for the second year in a row. Growth in the private sector (0.6%) was similar to that a year earlier (0.5%),19 arising only from the increase in the basic wage. Payments for overtime work, extraordinary payments and payments in arrears did not contribute to growth in 2013. Gross earnings in the public sector were down 1.3% year-on-year in 2013, mainly due to a further reduction in the average earnings in the general government (-2.5%). After they were reduced by 2.2% in a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 16 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on earnings in the private and public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government), and only exceptionally on earnings in activities of the private sector and in public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics -Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sector. 17 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. 18 Extraordinary payments disbursed with November's and December's earnings (such as 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses) declined by 43.1% year-on-year in 2013. 19 In private non-financial corporations it rose slightly (0.8%; 2012: 0.6%), while dropping further in financial corporations (-1.2%; 2012: -0.1%). It was also down in most activities (besides construction, particularly in service activities), in contrast to growth in industry, which was even slightly stronger (last year: 2.6%; 2012: 2.5%). Figure 23: Growth in gross earnings per employee Figure 24: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area Private sector Public sector -of which, gen. -of which, government public sector corporations Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 2012,20 they declined further in 2013 as a result of a full-year effect of the ZUJF and another cut in public servants' earnings.21 In addition to the decline of earnings in the general government, which constitutes the largest part of the public sector, the year 2013 also recorded a slower growth of earnings in public corporations (1.7%; 2012: 2.0%). Owing to the significantly lower year-end payments in public corporations compared with the previous year, the growth of earnings slowed somewhat year-on-year in 2013, although it remained above average.22 -Slovenia HICP ■ Slovenia HICP -core inflation - Euro area HICP ■ Euro area HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat. According to detailed data by SURS, price movements in January24 were mainly driven by seasonal factors, while year-on-year inflation was marked primarily by prices of services. January's deflation (-0.6%) was, as in previous years, largely a consequence of seasonal movements. Monthly growth declined due to lower prices of clothing and footwear (-1.1 percentage points), while it was raised by higher prices of fruit and vegetables (0.2 percentage points). Supplementary health insurance premiums were raised to the pre-December level,25 which also Prices Year-on-year inflation declined substantially in February (down 0.7 percentage points to 0.1%). Year-on-year growth dropped 0.7 percentage points on the previous month, in addition to the one-off factor23 (-0.4 percentage points) also owing to lower prices of liquid fuels and other goods. The otherwise modest year-on-year growth was mainly accounted for by higher prices of services (around 0.5 percentage points). These also marked growth in the euro area, where year-on-year inflation stayed at the same level as in January, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Figure 25: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation 20 With the enforcement of the ZUJF, public servants' earnings were cut by 8%, but at the same time public servants were paid the remaining two quarters of funds intended to eliminate earnings disparities. 21 In addition to the decline in the basic earnings of all public servants in June 2013 (partly in a linear and partly in a progressive manner, by around 1.3%, on average), the measures included abolition of increased seniority bonus paid to women for years of service over 25 years, a reduction in the allowance for specialisation and master's and doctoral studies (by half) and a cut in sickness benefits. 22 In non-financial public corporations 1.4% (2012: 1.9%); in financial corporations 1.2% (2012: 1.5%). 23 Increase in the contribution for renewable energy sources in February, which contributed 0.4 percentage points to year-on-year growth. 8 7 6 5 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 24 Detailed data on February's inflation will be released later and commented upon in the next SEM. 25 Insurance companies, which recorded lower-than-expected expenditure on health services in 2013, returned a portion of the overpaid amount to the insured, which was reflected in a lower monthly supplementary health insurance premium. 8 0 2 0 -2 Table 9: Breakdown of HICP in sub-groups - January 2014 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP -0.6 100.0 -0.6 -1.1 100.0 -1.1 Goods -1.3 64.8 -0.8 -1.7 57.2 -1.0 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.3 16.1 0.0 0.3 12.3 0.0 Non-processed food 3.5 7.5 0.3 0.6 7.5 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods -4.0 26.4 -1.1 -3.9 26.7 -1.0 Durables -0.2 8.7 0.0 -0.3 8.4 0.0 Non-durables -10.8 9.2 -1.0 -9.9 10.2 -1.0 Semi-durables -0.4 8.5 0.0 0.1 8.1 0.0 Energy -0.7 14.7 -0.1 0.0 10.8 0.0 Electricity for households -2.3 2.8 -0.1 1.3 2.7 0.0 Natural gas 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 0.5 1.3 0.0 -1.4 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -2.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 District heating -0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants -0.3 7.6 0.0 -0.6 4.8 0.0 Services 0.7 35.2 0.2 -0.4 42.8 -0.2 Services - dwellings 0.2 3.2 0.0 0.4 10.5 0.0 Services - transport 0.3 6.2 0.0 -0.3 7.3 0.0 Services - communications 0.2 3.6 0.0 -0.3 3.1 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.1 14.3 0.0 -1.5 14.7 -0.2 Services - other services 2.5 8.0 0.2 0.7 7.2 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -1.0 77.8 -0.8 -1.4 81.7 -1.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification contributed to monthly price growth (0.4 percentage points), in addition to seasonal factors. Year-on-year price growth in January (0.8%) was mainly due to higher prices of services, the contribution of which was up (to 0.6 percentage points) relative to December owing to higher prices of public utility26 and other services. Year-on-year inflation was also accounted for by higher prices of food (0.3 percentage points) and energy (0.2 percentage points). Higher energy prices (1.1%) were a consequence of higher prices of electricity (0.4 percentage points). With excise duties remaining unchanged and a year-on-year decline in global oil prices in euros (-6.5%), prices of fuels for transport and heating were down in January (contribution: -0.2 percentage points). Prices of durables and semi-durables were also lower year-on-year (by 1.9%; contribution: -0.4 percentage points). Industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets were down again in year-on-year terms in January. The decline on the domestic market (-0.3%) was once again impacted by a fall in prices of metals and metal products (-2.3%), which, alongside lower prices in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment, also contributed to the decline on foreign markets (-0.6%). Figure 26: Movements of domestic industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets 26 According to the Decree on pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection passed in January 2013, prices of public utility services are determined by the market. -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals,fabric.metal prod.,ex. mach.,equip.(domestic) ---Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign market) 20 16 12 # 8 sz i^t 4 0 -8 -12 -16 Source: SURS. December recorded a further loss in the price competitiveness of the economy in year-on-year terms, which was among the smallest in the euro area in the entire 2013. The real effective exchange rate as measured by the relative HICP27 was up again year-on-year (by 1.3 %) due to the appreciation of the euro against EU and non-EU currencies,28 yet less than in most other euro area countries for the fourth consecutive month. Owing to the structure of Slovenia's external trade, the increase in the nominal effective exchange rate was among the smallest in the euro area.29 Relative prices were also down in December, after maintaining the 2012 level since September 2013. The deterioration of the price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy was therefore among the smallest in the euro area in the entire year 2013 (by 1.3% in the year as a whole, 9'h to 11'h place). Figure 27: Real effective exchange rates deflated by the HICP Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments In 2013 the current account recorded the largest surplus thus far.30 After being more or less balanced in the first three years of the economic and financial crisis, the current account has been in surplus since 2012. In 2013 the surplus widened to EUR 2,279.0 m (6.5% of the estimated GDP). The 2013 increase was mostly due to a wider surplus in merchandise trade accounted for by stronger real growth in exports alongside modest imports as a result of low domestic consumption, and better terms of trade. The surplus in services trade also increased, and so did, albeit slightly, the surplus in current transfers. The larger current account surplus was also a result of a smaller deficit in factor income. 27 In Slovenia, in comparison with its trading partners. 28 Particularly against the JPY, and to a lesser extent, against the CZK, HUF, GBP and USD. 29 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the appreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate (and vice versa). 30 Data in EUR available since 1996. External trade was in surplus for the third year in succession. In Q4 2013 the merchandise trade balance recorded a surplus again. In year-on-year terms it was a result of external trade price factors. Export prices declined but import prices were dropping even faster, so that the terms of trade improved year-on-year after three years of deterioration (2010-2012). In 2013 the merchandise trade surplus reached EUR 653.0 m (a deficit of EUR 109.7 m a year earlier). The surplus in the balance of services trade was larger than in the previous year despite year-on-year falls in the second half of the year. More than half came from a larger surplus in trade in services that are mainly related to trade.31 The net inflow of travel was also larger amid weak growth in revenue from foreign tourism and a further decline in domestic spending abroad. The year-on-year increase in the surplus in trade in transport services was mainly due to a larger surplus in rail and maritime transport.32 In 2013 the surplus in trade in services stood at EUR 2,012.5 m (in 2012 EUR 1,803.3 m). Figure28: Breakdown of changes in nominal merchandise trade balance Terms of trade Quantity e^ect Other -Changes in nominal merchandise trade balance 600 200 -200 a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The deficit in the balance of factor income declined last year notwithstanding higher net payments of interest, which was a result of a smaller net outflow of income from capital amid an otherwise larger net inflow of income from labour. The deficit of capital income narrowed mainly thanks to a smaller deficit in income from equity capital of direct investment, which is highly influenced by estimates of reinvested earnings.33 Net income from portfolio investment was also up slightly, which is mainly related to lower payments of dividends to foreign portfolio investors. Total net payments of interest amounted to 31 All payments related to monetary intermediation, commission for other financial intermediation services and other costs. 32 Oil and gas transport via pipelines, tolls, forwarding services, transit charges, overflight fees. 33 The estimates of reinvested earnings in 2013 are negative (as in 2012). The actual figures will be included in August's release, which will be based on data from companies' annual accounts. NEER 5 0 EUR 484.3 m in 2013 overall, EUR 34.1 m more than a year earlier. Even though the private sector continues to deleverage abroad (in particular domestic commercial banks),34 net interest payments are rising due to the government sector's borrowing at higher interest rates. Figure 29: Net interest payments by sector ■ Bank of Slovenia ■ Private sector ■ Government sector -Total -50 i -100 -250 ...4.....4.....4.....4.....4.....4.....4.....4.....4.....4 .....4.....4.....4.....4.....4 a a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The surplus in current transfers in 2013 was similar to that in2012. In Q4 2013 it widened considerably mainly due to the higher absorption of EU funds in December. Similar to the 2010-2012 period, Slovenia received the majority of EU funds in December. In 2013 as a whole the surplus in the balance of current transfers amounted to EUR 21.4 m, EUR 3.5 m more than in 2012. Alongside the absorption dynamics during the year, the modest increase in the surplus was accounted for by the increasingly large share of investment supports, which are methodologically included in the capital and financial account within the capital transfers of the government sector. International financial transactions,35 which recorded a net outflow in 2013, continue to reflect limited access to international financial markets. The large net outflow in 2013 (EUR 2,924.5 m) was a result of the repayment of private sector debt and a decline in the Bank of Slovenia's liabilities to the Eurosystem. The net capital inflow of the government sector increased significantly last year due to the issues of long-term bonds. Direct investment recorded a net outflow of EUR 544.9 m in 2013, with equity capital flows accounting for a larger share in the structure of inward and outward FDI. Slovenian enterprises increased foreign direct investment last year. In 2013 the outflows of equity capital exceeded the 34 Since the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008, domestic commercial banks repaid EUR 11.0 bn in gross external debt by the end of September 2013. 35 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. estimated (negative) reinvested earnings and net debt financing. The majority of the recorded outflow of inward investment otherwise resulted from the requalification of intra-company loans into loans of other sectors, while the inflow of equity capital increased. Portfolio investment registered a net inflow in 2013 (EUR 3,945.7 m). The majority of transactions in portfolio investment were related to the issued government bonds. In May the government issued 5- and 10-years bonds in the total amount of USD 3.5 bn (EUR 2.7 bn) with respective interest rates of 4.75 and 5.85% on the US market, and in November a 3-year bond in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn and with a 4.7% interest rate on the euro market. In the private sector, enterprises increased portfolio investment last year, while commercial banks repaid another portion of their liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. As a hedge against the currency risk associated with the sale of dollar government bonds, the government sector increased its claims in the segment of financial derivatives, so that they recorded a net outflow of EUR 450.3 m in 2013. Other investment has recorded a net outflow since the beginning of the crisis, primarily as a result of the repayment of foreign liabilities of domestic banks and the outflow of residents' and non-residents' currency abroad, and in 2013 also due to a decline in liabilities to the Eurosystem. In 2013 the net outflow of other investment stood at EUR 5,875.0 m. Among claims, currency and deposits rose most notably, as banks, enterprises and households increased their assets in foreign accounts. Last year Slovenia continued to finance the eligible countries by Table 10: Balance of payments I-XII 13, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-XII 12 Current account 29,809.6 27,530.6 2,279.0 1,159.3 - Trade balance (FOB) 22,079.5 21,426.4 653.0 -109.7 - Services 5,423.1 3,410.6 2,012.5 1,803.3 - Income 858.4 1,266.4 -408.0 -552.1 Current transfers 1,448.6 1,427.2 21.4 17.9 Capital and financial account 3,784.9 -6,751.6 -2,966.7 -1,206.2 - Capital account 363.3 -400.1 -36.8 -91.9 - Capital transfers 333.6 -360.0 -26.4 -88.0 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 29.7 -40.1 -10.4 -3.9 - Financial account 3,421.6 -6,351.4 -2,929.9 -1,114.3 - Direct investment -491.3 -53.6 -544.9 165.8 - Portfolio investment 3,473.7 472.0 3,945.7 -217.8 - Financial derivates -55.9 -394.3 -450.3 -203.2 - Other investment 495.1 -6,370.1 -5,875.0 -890.2 - Assets 0.0 -1,929.2 -1,929.2 -1,474.3 - Liabilities 495.1 -4,441.0 -3,945.9 584.1 - Reserve assets 0.0 -5.3 -5.3 31.2 Net errors and omissions 687.7 0.0 687.7 46.8 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. 50 0 -150 -200 Figure 30: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 E 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 ■ Direct investment iFinancial derivatives -Net financial flow ■ Portfolio investment ■ Other investment a a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. loans under the financial assistance programmes for the euro area. Short-term trade credits also increased, which can be explained by a pick-up in exports of goods and services. As regards liabilities, the net outflow was mainly a result of lower liabilities of the Bank of Slovenia to the Eurosystem.36 Domestic banks continued to deleverage abroad last year, while non-residents were withdrawing their deposits from domestic banks. Financial markets The falling of the stock of loans to domestic non-banking sectors eased substantially in January (to EUR 27.6 m). The moderation was mainly the result of a relatively strong growth of NFI loans, as corporate and household loans continued to drop. In January banks continued to deleverage abroad, while households and the government increased deposits. The amount of banks' bad claims fell slightly, but the decline was fairly modest despite the transfer of claims to the DUTB, which is estimated to be a result of downgrades in some B-rated claims. Household loans declined by around EUR 40 m in January, only half as much as in December 2013. All types of loans dropped. More than half of the overall decline was accounted for by loans for other purposes, while the fall in housing and consumer loans remained basically the same (EUR 8.5 m). The year-on-year rate of decline in household loans remained around 3.5%. Corporate and NFI loans rose in January for the first time in two years. The increase (EUR 8 m) was a result of a much larger amount of NFI loans, while corporate loans fell again (EUR 183.8 m), primarily due to the repayment of loans for business operations. In December 2013 enterprises and NFIs continued to make net repayments of foreign loans. Net repayments totalled around EUR 55 m and were among the highest in 2013. Deleveraging was a result of net repayments of long-term loans (EUR 68.1 m), which tend to be somewhat higher Table 11: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 13 31.I 14 31. I 14/31. XII 13 31. I 14/31. I 13 31. I 13/31. I 12 Loans total 26,176.0 26,148.4 -0.1 -16.5 -4.5 Enterprises and NFI 15,594.8 15,602.8 0.1 -23.4 -8.0 Government 1,664.0 1,666.5 0.1 -4.4 43.0 Households 8,917.3 8,879.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.4 Consumer credits 2,213.4 2,204.8 -0.4 -10.3 -8.9 Lending for house purchase 5,306.5 5,298.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 Other lending 1,397.3 1,376.2 -1.5 -8.5 -2.9 Bank deposits total 14,588.1 14,736.8 1.0 -2.8 -0.2 Overnight deposits 6,446.6 6,475.2 0.4 0.3 -2.2 Short-term deposits 3,681.9 3,692.1 0.3 -9.4 0.5 Long-term deposits 4,456.1 4,565.7 2.5 -1.2 2.1 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.5 3.8 7.7 -41.2 -14.5 Mutual funds 1,854.6 1,824.0 -1.7 -1.2 -1.5 Government bank deposits, total 1,284.1 1,472.4 14.7 -41.1 -10.8 Overnight deposits 22.9 186.8 716.1 -27.2 77.5 Short-term deposits 512.8 523.8 2.1 -23.3 6.3 Long-term deposits 738.5 745.3 0.9 -52.2 -22.6 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.8 16.5 67.7 2,616.9 -65.0 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. 36 The liabilities to the Eurosystem, which had risen significantly in 2012 primarily due to long-term financial operations, declined in 2013. When the government issued securities, its liabilities from the issue of securities increased, while its liabilities to the Eurosystem (TARGET) declined. Figure 31: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans ■ Enterprises and NFIs I ■ Government ■ -Total 500 400 300 200 E 100 cc =3 0 -100 ■■■■ -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 i5 Ji Ji Ji Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. in the last month of the year and are not fully replaced by new loans. In 2013 overall corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad amounted to EUR 1.1 bn, which is by far the highest figure to date (compared with around EUR 740 m in 2006). The increase was a consequence of two one-off events37 rather than a general improvement in access to foreign funding for Slovenian enterprises. Excluding these events, enterprises and NFI repaid, according to our estimate, around EUR 40 m net in foreign loans (a less than 1% decline), which is relatively modest, considering the unfavourable conditions on foreign credit markets. Figure 32: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^■Long-term loans (left axis) ^■Short-term loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 550 ■■■4H 500 I I 450 -4-1 400 4-1 350 1= 300 250 j= 200 150 100 50 0 ro ^^ ro rN rN rn r^o ^ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In our estimation, this is also a result of creditworthy enterprises mainly borrowing abroad where interest rates for corporate loans are still more than 200 basis points lower than at home. Bankdeleveraging abroad eased slightly at the end of the year. December's net repayments of foreign liabilities stood at EUR 85 m. Banks were repaying all types of foreign liabilities. In 2013 overall their net repayments abroad totalled EUR 2.1 bn, which is less than in the previous two years, but the liquidity pressures on the Slovenian banking system remained significant due to the limited sources of funding. Figure 33: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of Slovenian banks 2,000 -:- 1,500 1,000 500 -500 -1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total -1,500 8B 55 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Household and government deposits rose in January, by almost EUR 340 m in total. Household deposits at banks grew almost by EUR 150 m in January. The maturity structure of these deposits improved somewhat, with almost three-quarters of the increase accounted for by a larger amount of long-term deposits, which is also a sign of a slightly greater confidence of savers in the Slovenian banking system. The differences between long-term and short-term deposits have declined significantly in recent months. The government increased deposits almost by EUR 190 m in January, the majority being overnight deposits. As a result of the transfer of a portion of bank claims to the DUTB, the volume of bad claims38 shrank in December. However, the decline of around EUR 400 m to EUR 8.2 bn was fairly modest. Although as much as EUR 3.2 bn was transferred to the DUTB, the actual decline in bad claims was smaller as it was significantly offset by a 37 i.e., requalification of liabilities from FDI into loans from non-affiliated companies, and increased borrowing by one of the energy companies. 38 C-, D- and E-rated claims. Claims are classified with regard to the share of impairments, but the data are not comparable with the volume of past-due claims. ■;= 0 Figure 34: Share of bad and non-performing claims and creation of impairments and provisions in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) -Share of bad claims (right axis) 2254 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. concurrent substantial inflow of B-rated claims that were downgraded due to a different valuation of the collateral (EUR 2.7 bn). In 2013 overall the volume of bad claims in the Slovenian banking system otherwise rose by EUR 1.5 bn, which is the highest figure to date. As the result of a substantial decline in the total asset base, i.e. the total exposure of the banking system, the share of bad claims rose to 19.9% by the end of 2013. The intense creation of impairments and provisions seen at the end of last year eased strongly in January due to the beginning of the banks' balance sheet repair. The banks thus created EUR 11.6 m in additional impairments and provisions in January. Figure 35: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond - Slovenia - Spain -Ireland ----France -Italy ----Portugal o The yield to maturity of the 10-year euro bond and the spread with respect to the German bond declined by 40 and 16 basis points, respectively, in February. At the end of January, the decline in the required yields seen since the release of the stress test results in December 2013 came to a halt temporarily due to uncertainties in developing countries. After the issue of the new 5-year and 10-year bonds in the total amount of USD 3.5 bn on 10 February 2014, the required yield fell below the level recorded before the beginning of uncertainties. By the end of the month if had dropped further, so that the yield to maturity of the 10-year euro bond stood at 4.00%, which is similar to September 2011. Public finance As a result of lower revenue and higher expenditure, the general government deficit39 rose in 2013. The general government deficit totalled EUR 1.6 bn (4.4% of GDP), EUR 431 m (1.2% of GDP) more than in 2012. The deficit figure based on the cash methodology does not include financial transactions associated with the banks' balance sheet repair, which under such methodology are shown as capital increase. The total amount spent for this purpose including the increase of capital of the bad bank was EUR 3.4 bn or 9.7% of GDP. Figure 36: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 17.0 16.5 o 16.0 15.5 14.0 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. General government revenue declined by 1.8% or EUR 274 m in2013. The fall in total revenue is mainly explained by a decline in tax revenue (by EUR 353 m) and social security contributions (by EUR 117 m), as non-tax revenue (up EUR 75 m) and transfers from the EU budget (up EUR 93 m) Source: Bloomberg. 9 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. 17.5 7 15.0 6 14.5 5 4 2 Table 12: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-XII 2013 XII 2013/XII 2012 I-XII 13/I-I-XII 12 I-XII 2012 I-XII 2013 General government revenue - total 14,725.1 7.7 -1.8 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 265.2 -27.0 -54.0 3.8 1.8 Personal income tax 1868.0 -11.0 -10.1 13.8 12.7 Value added tax 3,029.1 37.1 4.3 19.4 20.6 Excise duties 1,490.7 48.4 -4.5 10.4 10.1 Social security contributions 5127.2 -0.5 -2.2 35.0 34.8 Other general government revenues 2,944.8 5.5 11.7 17.6 20.0 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 13: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2012 2013 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-XII 13, EUR m I-XII 13/I-XII 12 Revenue - total 14,999.1 42.3 0.1 14,725.1 -1.8 - Tax revenues 13,118.3 37.0 -0.7 12,647.9 -3.6 - Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 7.5 -2.5 2,137.4 -19.5 - Social security contributions 5,244.1 14.8 -0.4 5,127.2 -2.2 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,876.1 13.7 0.4 5,027.3 3.1 - Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 2.4 3.7 938.1 11.0 Expenditure - total 16,125.7 45.4 -2.5 16,282.7 1.0 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,727.7 9.0 -4.0 3,617.0 -3.0 - Purchases of goods and services 2,373.0 6.7 -2.9 2,237.4 -5.7 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 647.9 1.8 23.0 840.1 29.7 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 18.0 -2.3 6,343.0 -0.6 - Capital expenditure 915.0 2.6 -10.6 1,030.7 12.7 - Capital transfers 319.9 0.9 -14.0 319.0 -0.3 - Payment to the EU budget 390.3 1.1 -3.7 425.5 9.0 Deficit -1,126.6 -3.2 -28.0 -1,557.6 38.3 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. were bigger than in 2012. The drop in tax revenue was mainly due to lower corporate income tax (down EUR 312 m), personal income tax (down EUR 200 m) and excise duties (down EUR 70 m). The substantial fall in revenue from corporate income tax reflects a slowdown in economic activity and corporate income tax assessments after the reduction of tax rates. The revenues from personal income tax and social security contributions together were 4.3% lower. According to our estimate, the larger fall in revenue from personal income tax than in social security contributions could be a result of the classification of revenue experienced in 2012 when a new information system was introduced. The fall in revenue from excise duties was a result of a reduction in volume, as the increase in excise duties was minor in 2013 and it offset the yearly effect of higher excise duties enacted in 2012. The VAT rate rises in June 2013 were the main factor of the increase in revenue from VAT (EUR 124 m or 4.3%), which partially compensated for the fall in total tax revenue. Moreover, having adopted a programme to reduce the grey economy, the government began to be more actively involved in the tax recovery procedures, which may already have a positive impact on VAT revenue in 2013. Non-tax revenue increased (by 8.0%) mainly due to higher dividends in July and higher EU budget transfers (by 11.0%) due to EU cohesion funds. General government expenditure was up 1.0% or EUR 157m in 2013 due to strong growth in December. In the first eleven months expenditure was lower than in the same period last year, while December's strong growth (11.8% relative to the previous December, and EUR 220 m or 16.0% relative to the previous month) as a result of higher expenditure on investment, goods and services and the wage bill contributed to the year-on-year increase in expenditure in the year as a whole. In contrast to 2012, the measures to reduce total expenditure did not result in a decline in total expenditure, mainly due to significantly higher interest payments (EUR 192 m or 29.7% more than in 2012, which is the strongest growth in five years). Growth in total expenditure was also due to higher expenditure on investment (EUR 116 m), which had been declining in the previous two years. The use of the budget reserves also increased (EUR 77 m), as did Slovenia's payments to the EU budget (EUR 35 m), expenditure on subsidies (EUR 18 m) and transfers abroad (EUR 15.4 m). Expenditure was constrained by the reduction in the purchases of goods and services (EUR 136 m), the wage bill (EUR 110 m), social transfers (EUR 41 m) and other domestic transfers (EUR 12 m or 2.3%). Total social transfers continued to decline in 2013, with the exception of expenditure on pensions (up EUR 106 m), which increased due to a larger number of beneficiaries, and some less important categories of transfers (down EUR 13 m). The most important reductions in social transfers concern expenditure on scholarships,40 family benefits and parental compensation and social security transfers. Transfers to the unemployed remained lower than in previous years, while sickness benefits were approximately at the same level as in 2012. Slovenia's state budget recorded a net deficit of EUR 20.3 m against the EU budget in January. Slovenia received EUR 27.3 m from the EU budget, 2.3% of the level planned. The bulk of receipts came from Structural Funds (EUR 22.1 m, or 4.3% of envisaged revenue). The receipts from the Cohesion Fund amounted to EUR 4.7 m, 1.2% of the level planned, but there was no revenue under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies. Slovenia paid EUR 47.6 m to the EU budget, 12.1% of payments planned for 2014. The highest were payments based on gross national income (EUR 36.2 m). Figure 38: Planned and absorbed EU funds, 2013 and 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2013 Other Common Agricultural Policy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 In % 90 100 110 120 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Figure 37: Receipts from the EU budget in 2013 and 2014 ■ Total receipts in 2014 (January) ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-December) Other Common Agricultural Policy 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 40 Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or from reserves. X "ö C a a (O "iS u (O MAIN INDICATORS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Autumn forecast 2013 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 -7.9 1.3 0.7 -2.5 -2.4 -0.8 0.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 37,244 35,420 35,485 36,150 35,319 34,908 35,132 35,747 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 18,420 17,349 17,320 17,610 17,172 16,942 17,027 17,305 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,700 20,300 20,500 21,000 20,900 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 91 86 83 83 81 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 36,273 34,823 35,028 35,759 34,931 34,196 34,362 34,910 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,904 34,519 34,875 35,680 34,721 34,295 34,268 34,758 Rate of registered unemployment 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.3 13.6 13.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.7 11.0 10.6 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 0.8 -6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.7 -0.1 0.6 1.1 Inflation,2 year average 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 -16.1 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.0 3.0 4.1 Exports of goods 1.8 -16.6 12.0 8.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 4.3 Exports of services 14.3 -14.0 3.5 1.9 3.7 3.8 2.7 3.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 -19.2 7.4 5.6 -4.7 0.1 2.1 3.9 Imports of goods 3.0 -20.2 8.3 6.6 -5.1 0.3 2.0 3.9 Imports of services 8.2 -12.4 2.6 -0.6 -2.2 -1.0 2.5 4.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -2,028 -173 -50 146 1,159 1,731 1,765 1,817 As a per cent share relative to GDP -5.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 3.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 39,234 40,294 40,723 40,241 40,838 39,5515 As a per cent share relative to GDP 105.3 113.8 114.8 111.3 115.6 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.320 1.331 1.331 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.3 -0.1 1.5 0.8 -4.8 -3.5 -2.7 0.5 As a % of GDP4 51.8 54.8 56.4 56.8 56.3 55.7 54.8 54.7 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 2.5 1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 As a % of GDP4 18.1 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.4 20.3 20.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 7.1 -23.8 -15.3 -5.5 -8.2 -1.6 -4.0 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 28.6 23.1 19.7 18.6 17.8 17.7 17.2 17.1 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2013). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End December 2013. PRODUCTION 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 1.3 -1.1 -0.6 -3.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 2.2 0.5 3.3 -3.6 2.2 B Mining and quarrying -7.9 -7.4 3.4 -8.7 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 8.7 -7.9 -5.7 20.1 6.1 -11.4 -22.0 -8.2 C Manufacturing 1.1 -2.3 -1.1 -4.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.7 -1.6 -0.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 -4.2 1.9 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 5.0 10.5 3.6 4.0 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.3 3.2 2.7 3.5 16.3 5.3 5.6 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -24.8 -16.8 -2.9 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -3.8 21.6 -21.7 -24.3 -3.1 -13.5 Buildings -39.7 -17.3 -20.5 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -16.8 4.9 -31.1 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 Civil engineering -15.3 -16.6 5.7 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 1.3 25.5 -18.1 -22.8 -22.0 -18.6 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 3.2 -3.4 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.9 -1.8 3.9 Tonne-km in rail transport 9.7 -7.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 13.4 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.3 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -2.7 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 7.0 -6.3 4.7 -2.0 -2.8 -7.2 -10.1 -5.3 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.5 -0.1 -3.5 -4.7 -5.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.0 0.8 -0.2 3.4 3.8 -0.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.5 8.5 3.8 -0.8 0.0 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 5.3 1.2 0.3 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 0.5 -4.9 -3.4 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 9.1 5.6 2.8 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 3.7 -1.1 -1.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.0 0.5 2.8 0.3 -3.6 1.4 -0.9 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.9 480.4 478.4 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -7 -17 -13 -10 -12 -16 -19 -20 -15 -14 -12 -12 -12 -12 -12 -16 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 -11 -6 -7 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -6 -4 -3 -3 -6 -8 -10 - in construction -46 -41 -22 -42 -41 -44 -39 -39 -30 -22 -18 -18 -43 -40 -40 -45 - in services 1 -12 -12 -4 -8 -8 -14 -18 -12 -12 -11 -12 -11 -9 -5 -8 - in retail trade 8 2 2 13 5 4 1 -4 -3 2 6 1 1 9 5 8 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -35 -33 -23 -27 -36 -39 -36 -29 -34 -34 -35 -28 -26 -26 -39 Source of data: SURS. Note: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2012 2013 2014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 -3.9 -2.6 3.6 3.1 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 0.2 -0.7 -6.4 3.1 -2.0 -4.8 1.8 -5.7 1.5 -0.8 0.2 8.5 - 9.8 -7.0 -5.7 1.4 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -9.6 12.9 24.1 -2.5 -9.5 -11.5 3.7 0.5 -20.2 -5.0 8.4 78.9 -5.5 -4.9 1.8 1.6 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 -0.9 -0.8 -8.6 2.8 -2.3 -5.0 1.8 -6.7 1.4 -1.5 0.2 8.4 9.4 24.0 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -2.4 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 4.3 - -23.8 -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -5.4 -6.8 27.9 30.3 4.4 -15.6 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -19.8 -11.9 10.6 2.7 0.9 -26.5 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.2 -6.6 31.6 40.1 3.1 - - - - - - - - -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.7 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 -4.9 -8.6 -7.7 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.4 -3.4 1.3 2.2 2.7 4.8 - -3.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.8 -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.6 -4.0 -1.0 -1.5 0.3 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.3 16.0 0.4 -2.2 7.2 2.8 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.2 1.6 10.1 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 - -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 2.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.6 1.3 4.1 1.0 3.1 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 - - -15 -18 -18 -19 -21 -22 -21 -17 -16 -16 -13 -14 -14 -13 -13 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -9 -9 -10 -13 -12 -15 -16 -15 -14 -10 -11 -8 -8 -9 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 -44 -43 -40 -37 -41 -42 -40 -35 -30 -31 -30 -26 -20 -20 -22 -15 -16 -17 -17 -20 -17 -18 -6 -10 -11 -14 -16 -19 -19 -15 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -13 -13 -10 -12 -5 -6 1 4 -2 -2 8 -7 -5 0 1 -9 -2 -5 -5 16 16 0 3 13 -6 -3 9 1 -33 -36 -36 -36 -45 -38 -37 -34 -31 -31 -26 -27 -37 -37 -37 -33 -31 -35 -35 -34 -31 -30 LABOUR MARKET 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.7 920.2 913.4 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 927.5 927.1 925.4 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 824.0 810.0 793.6 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 811.6 812.0 814.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.8 37.0 38.2 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 35.2 35.1 35.3 In industry, construction 272.9 263.1 252.2 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 265.4 264.7 266.1 Of which: in manufacturing 184.8 182.9 177.7 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 184.6 184.6 184.6 in construction 67.8 59.8 54.3 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 60.7 59.9 61.0 In services 512.3 510.0 503.2 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 510.9 512.2 513.1 Of which: in public administration 51.4 50.7 49.1 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 50.8 50.9 50.9 in education, health-services, social work 118.8 120.9 121.0 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 119.9 120.8 121.5 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 729.1 717.0 698.7 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 719.6 720.3 722.7 In enterprises and organisations 671.8 662.6 647.6 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 665.2 666.1 667.9 By those self-employed 57.2 54.5 51.1 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 54.5 54.2 54.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 93.0 94.9 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 91.9 91.8 91.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.7 110.2 119.8 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 116.0 115.0 110.9 Female 52.1 52.2 57.4 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 54.2 53.4 52.0 By age: under 26 12.9 11.9 13.8 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 12.3 15.6 13.2 12.9 12.0 aged over 50 39.0 38.2 38.9 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.6 39.4 38.6 Unskilled 39.5 39.4 40.7 39.3 41.0 39.2 37.8 39.5 43.4 40.6 38.8 39.9 41.4 41.6 40.0 For more than 1 year 50.2 55.2 54.9 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 55.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 Those receiving benefits 36.3 33.9 33.0 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 38.5 38.3 36.7 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.8 12.0 13.1 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 12.5 12.4 12.0 Male 11.4 11.5 12.5 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 12.1 12.1 11.6 Female 12.4 12.6 13.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 13.0 12.8 12.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 2.7 5.3 6.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.4 16.3 19.1 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 Redundancies 82.2 90.3 88.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 10.6 6.1 5.9 Registered unemployed who found employment 61.0 58.3 65.1 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 5.0 5.2 7.1 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.8 43.1 37.3 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 3.3 2.6 3.7 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.6 33.9 30.5 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 34.2 34.2 34.2 As % of labour force 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2012 2013 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.5 38.3 38.7 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 41.8 40.5 39.6 39.2 38.9 38.4 38.8 39.2 41.7 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 2.0 0.1 -0.2 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 -1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 2.1 0.3 -2.1 B Mining and quarrying 3.8 3.7 -2.0 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 10.0 11.9 3.8 C Manufacturing 3.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.5 3.8 1.9 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.3 3.3 3.0 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.5 8.0 3.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities -0.1 0.1 0.7 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 F Constrution 2.0 -2.5 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 1.1 1.4 -3.1 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.8 0.8 0.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 3.3 2.2 1.0 H Transportation and storage 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.2 0.4 -1.7 J Information and communication 0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 K Financial and insurance activities 0.6 1.1 0.2 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 1.5 8.4 3.8 L Real estate activities 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 2.3 2.5 -1.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4 -1.1 -2.4 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 N Administrative and support service activities 3.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.1 5.1 2.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 0.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 P Education 0.2 -3.3 -3.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 Q Human health and social work activities -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation -0.7 -2.8 -3.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 S Other service activities 0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 2.0 -0.4 0.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -0.1 -1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 Real (deflator HICP) -1.0 -1.1 1.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.4 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3 Real (deflator ULC) -2.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.0 -3.3 -3.6 -2.9 -2.7 -1.8 -1.2 USD/EUR 1.3917 1.2856 1.3282 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 PRICES 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.4 4.1 3.6 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5.7 6.5 7.0 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 Clothing and footwear -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.6 3.8 3.1 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 Furnishings, household equipment 2.7 0.1 -1.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.6 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 Transport 1.0 3.3 0.3 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 Communications 1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 Recreation and culture -1.5 1.4 0.1 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 Education 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Catering services -6.8 4.5 6.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 HCPI 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.5 0.9 0.0 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 Domestic market 3.8 1.0 0.3 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 Non-domestic market 5.3 0.7 -0.2 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 euro area 6.1 0.1 -0.4 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 non-euro area 3.6 2.0 0.3 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 Import price indices 5.4 1.9 -0.4 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 10.9 12.7 0.2 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 10.3 12.0 13.8 14.7 Oil products 11.9 13.0 1.7 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 10.5 12.2 14.2 15.3 Transport & communications 1.1 1.6 11.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 Other controlled prices 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Direct control - total 2.8 9.2 1.2 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 2.0 9.5 10.6 11.1 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2012 2013 2014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 Q^ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 12 3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 146 1,159 2,279 0 96 262 320 482 485 693 626 474 -91 -23 -76 195 Goods1 -957 -110 653 -356 -149 -45 60 24 132 238 244 39 -211 -115 -39 4 Exports 21,450 21,631 22,079 5,403 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,390 5,646 5,441 5,602 1,641 1,646 1,726 1,992 Imports 22,407 21,741 21,426 5,758 5,514 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,259 5,407 5,197 5,563 1,851 1,761 1,765 1,988 Services 1,476 1,803 2,013 375 418 444 528 414 505 541 574 393 97 152 106 161 Exports 4,842 5,166 5,423 1,217 1,118 1,237 1,502 1,310 1,211 1,326 1,559 1,327 421 377 325 417 Imports 3,365 3,363 3,411 841 700 793 974 896 706 785 985 934 325 225 219 256 Income -524 -552 -408 -81 -145 -168 -198 -42 -73 -108 -110 -118 -14 -35 -41 -68 Receipts 936 699 858 259 131 188 174 206 223 206 215 214 100 41 42 48 Expenditure 1,460 1,251 1,266 340 276 356 372 247 296 314 325 331 114 77 83 116 Current transfers 151 18 21 62 -28 31 -70 86 -79 22 -82 160 38 -25 -101 98 Receipts 1,404 1,410 1,449 371 348 366 285 411 333 356 294 466 158 73 68 207 Expenditure 1,253 1,392 1,427 310 377 336 355 325 412 334 375 306 120 97 169 110 Capital and financial account -474 -1,206 -2,967 -175 67 -249 -540 -484 -879 -754 -840 -493 176 87 152 -172 Capital account -85 -92 -37 -80 -24 11 -30 -49 -5 -40 -31 40 -91 -4 -6 -14 Financial account -389 -1,114 -2,930 -94 91 -260 -511 -434 -874 -714 -809 -533 267 90 158 -158 Direct investment 633 166 -545 151 146 98 84 -162 -62 -648 -11 177 285 -53 77 123 Domestic abroad -85 212 -54 -156 41 127 39 5 -110 51 -2 6 -83 -12 17 36 Foreign in Slovenia 718 -46 -491 307 105 -29 45 -167 47 -700 -9 171 367 -41 60 87 Portfolio investment 1,839 -218 3,946 -20 -923 124 -982 1,564 131 2,100 -424 2,138 -66 221 -820 -324 Financial derivatives -155 -203 -450 -24 -23 -21 -31 -129 23 -224 -117 -133 -18 0 9 -31 Other investment -2,777 -890 -5,875 -221 851 -455 439 -1,726 -1,033 -1,922 -174 -2,745 76 -10 834 27 Assets -1,490 -1,474 -1,929 567 -1,466 -95 205 -118 -1,284 -635 141 -151 628 -612 102 -956 Commercial credits -49 65 -56 316 -347 -35 109 339 -364 -50 91 267 409 -86 -85 -176 Loans -55 -319 -23 19 3 -95 84 -310 25 -180 89 43 44 22 128 -147 Currency and deposits -1,341 -1,177 -1,696 249 -1,131 11 -33 -24 -928 -332 -46 -391 203 -544 42 -629 Other assets -46 -45 -154 -18 10 24 45 -124 -17 -73 7 -70 -29 -3 17 -4 Liabilities -1,287 584 -3,946 -788 2,317 -359 234 -1,608 251 -1,287 -315 -2,594 -551 602 732 983 Commercial credits 107 265 -142 17 161 136 -96 63 -300 93 -200 264 -96 -79 147 93 Loans -1,234 -729 495 -752 -121 -223 -178 -208 374 602 -530 48 -121 77 -211 14 Deposits -169 1,026 -4,246 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 -319 550 833 904 Other liabilities 9 23 -52 3 -11 17 -22 39 -12 -2 -15 -23 -15 54 -36 -29 International reserves2 72 31 -5 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -83 30 -10 -68 59 48 Statistical error 328 47 688 174 -163 -13 220 2 394 61 214 19 -85 -64 -76 -23 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,042 2,112 N/A 540 477 569 514 552 517 525 519 N/A 186 144 159 175 Intermediate goods 12,008 12,138 N/A 2,931 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,078 3,183 3,138 N/A 837 957 996 1,110 Consumer goods 6,950 6,811 N/A 1,803 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,673 1,818 1,669 N/A 573 500 528 657 Import of investment goods 2,505 2,402 N/A 736 562 584 570 687 645 665 560 N/A 307 174 159 228 Intermediate goods 14,107 14,005 N/A 3,490 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,477 3,462 3,296 N/A 1,018 1,171 1,171 1,294 Consumer goods 5,943 5,671 N/A 1,524 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,394 1,488 1,481 N/A 483 447 456 533 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: "Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2012 2013 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 89 23 150 59 61 200 196 230 56 64 80 341 298 136 259 258 163 206 172 67 235 7 -31 -21 48 -73 84 43 98 -117 -50 58 124 135 -21 125 140 14 89 62 -9 -14 1,807 1,862 1,891 1,829 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,718 1,737 1,935 1,963 1,844 1,839 1,960 1,552 1,928 2,032 1,910 1,660 1,800 1,892 1,912 1,781 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,768 1,680 1,811 1,828 1,866 1,714 1,820 1,538 1,839 1,970 1,919 1,674 148 156 140 147 189 192 183 145 86 170 122 213 173 186 181 200 208 165 151 124 118 392 410 434 512 512 477 467 415 427 391 355 466 433 438 455 533 537 489 457 410 460 244 254 295 366 323 285 284 270 341 221 232 253 259 251 274 333 329 324 306 286 342 -44 -99 -25 -110 -32 -56 -8 -14 -19 -26 -24 -23 -30 -40 -37 -35 -37 -38 -41 -38 -39 54 63 72 54 55 65 58 59 88 74 73 76 69 69 69 75 69 71 71 70 73 98 162 97 164 87 121 66 73 108 100 97 99 99 109 106 110 106 109 111 108 112 -23 -3 56 -25 -24 -21 -21 1 106 -30 -76 27 21 11 -10 -48 -23 -11 0 -11 171 97 113 156 112 85 88 90 109 212 86 95 152 139 115 102 101 91 102 102 88 276 120 116 100 137 109 109 112 108 106 116 171 125 118 104 112 149 114 113 102 98 105 -168 -162 81 -55 -243 -242 -384 -348 248 -397 -89 -393 -326 -153 -274 -232 -291 -317 -391 -97 -4 24 5 -18 9 -10 -29 -13 -40 3 -1 -5 0 0 -27 -13 4 -12 -23 10 -3 33 -193 -167 100 -65 -233 -213 -372 -308 245 -397 -84 -393 -326 -127 -261 -236 -279 -294 -401 -94 -37 -92 144 45 87 -28 25 -45 31 -149 51 25 -138 -701 -4 56 43 2 -56 295 -67 -51 -6 53 80 13 43 -16 -6 42 -32 -9 -7 -94 -8 22 38 -4 -2 4 62 -11 -45 -86 91 -35 74 -71 41 -39 -11 -117 60 32 -45 -693 -25 18 47 4 -61 233 -56 -6 76 133 -86 -644 -152 -187 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 270 -143 2,589 -346 -129 -90 -204 -24 1,823 339 -6 -7 -7 -9 -3 -19 -44 -40 -44 -34 65 -8 -7 -67 -151 -83 -55 21 -59 -5 -69 -171 -435 151 541 -46 -56 -1,982 -256 512 -281 -201 -551 508 -2,671 241 15 -138 -51 -614 -1,839 -292 -383 119 169 122 147 -64 -294 -422 597 -337 -374 -574 -220 -404 -11 -3 206 -62 -445 -132 426 24 -32 -27 16 158 -65 -28 37 330 -62 -86 -217 -25 55 -80 -2 182 -90 -55 18 305 -153 -28 86 40 51 -8 17 -49 -277 4 8 13 -71 -68 -41 11 75 4 -34 -17 93 -258 164 105 36 -77 8 -132 -406 514 -274 -297 -357 -55 -396 120 -11 -59 24 -287 -85 -18 4 15 5 30 15 0 -151 -4 31 -5 1 -13 -69 6 -10 -1 8 0 -69 -48 47 212 -554 -18 419 -193 8 -1,688 166 -85 55 172 23 728 -2,267 252 18 -344 11 -169 -1,707 -718 -16 -72 224 -8 -144 56 6 18 40 -234 86 -152 -5 35 64 -127 -137 64 76 137 50 103 -213 -114 -83 -62 -32 14 -194 -28 34 -151 492 675 -14 -59 -372 43 -200 12 -6 43 115 -278 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 10 9 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 38 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -8 3 5 -31 0 -2 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -4 1 -6 35 80 139 -231 -4 182 42 188 118 -304 334 8 52 28 17 16 -26 128 111 219 31 -231 183 189 196 172 164 179 193 191 168 156 159 202 181 176 169 200 145 174 195 192 N/A 1,009 1,049 1,042 1,052 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 1,008 988 1,082 1,109 1,054 1,020 1,116 924 1,098 1,171 1,070 N/A 559 572 603 554 460 590 610 628 550 507 554 612 633 576 609 602 448 619 627 607 N/A 186 201 197 217 163 190 219 209 259 196 195 254 218 259 188 202 154 204 220 234 N/A 1,177 1,209 1,192 1,175 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,223 1,110 1,144 1,199 1,201 1,062 1,176 988 1,132 1,239 1,205 N/A 449 475 475 442 447 461 530 508 448 445 467 483 491 490 506 510 440 531 553 524 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 102 221 233 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 Central government (S. 1311) 4,299 5,057 6,563 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 584 610 581 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,454 9,267 8,917 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 20,876 19,470 14,903 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,229 2,135 1,764 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,445 5,194 5,020 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,692 34,558 29,620 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 In foreign currency 1,536 1,309 1,097 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 Securities, total 5,659 5,862 7,027 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 28,420 29,582 27,051 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 Overnight 8,245 8,678 8,558 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,868 7,056 6,689 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 With agreed maturity -long-term 12,248 13,780 11,569 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 59 68 235 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 Deposits in foreign currency, total 579 552 487 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 Overnight 386 372 324 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 With agreed maturity -short-term 133 123 91 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 With agreed maturity -long-term 59 56 72 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.15 2.31 1.86 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.46 5.48 5.40 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.69 5.32 3.86 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.75 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.39 0.57 0.22 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 6-month rates 1.64 0.83 0.34 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 6-month rates 0.18 0.15 - 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 2014 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 227 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 4,805 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,447 590 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 20,488 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,903 14,692 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,764 1,994 5,237 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 35,422 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,027 6,922 29,591 29,354 29,460 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 8,633 8,523 8,651 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 13,851 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 55 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 591 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 412 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 119 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 59 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 - - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 5 1 6 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,982.3 14,999.1 14,725.1 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,077.2 1,159.7 1,269.3 Current revenues 14,037.9 14,030.6 13,634.8 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,646.2 1,101.4 1,153.8 Tax revenues 13,209.2 13,118.3 12,647.9 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,405.6 1,049.3 1,090.3 Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 2,656.6 2,137.4 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 194.8 279.9 Social security contributions 5,267.6 5,244.1 5,127.2 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 449.0 442.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 25.6 23.4 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 2.2 2.0 Taxes on property 215.2 233.9 253.5 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.3 27.4 26.9 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,856.2 4,876.1 5,027.3 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.4 371.2 332.7 Taxes on international trade & transactions 100.2 82.5 77.5 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 6.6 6.5 Other taxes 17.2 -0.6 1.5 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.0 -1.9 -0.3 Non-tax revenues 828.7 912.3 986.9 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.8 185.7 322.8 240.6 52.1 63.6 Capital revenues 65.3 62.5 67.0 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 3.5 4.8 Grants 10.4 9.2 32.3 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.1 0.9 0.4 Transferred revenues 53.8 51.7 52.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 50.9 1.1 0.0 0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 845.1 938.1 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.4 53.9 109.9 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,546.3 16,125.7 16,282.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,287.6 1,249.3 1,241.5 Current expenditures 6,926.7 6,813.5 6,836.4 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,677.9 515.4 525.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,882.7 3,727.7 3,617.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.6 315.6 328.5 Expenditures on goods and services 2,443.4 2,373.0 2,237.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 559.1 565.9 526.7 585.7 192.1 191.0 Interest payments 526.7 647.9 840.1 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 2.6 1.6 Reserves 73.9 64.9 141.9 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 20.8 43.6 5.2 4.1 Current transfers 7,818.9 7,687.0 7,671.1 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.4 627.2 613.0 Subsidies 496.3 502.7 519.3 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.4 31.8 28.8 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,533.5 6,384.2 6,343.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.3 531.1 527.4 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 737.2 741.0 734.4 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.5 59.0 54.2 Current transfers abroad 52.0 59.0 74.4 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 5.2 2.7 Capital expenditures 1,023.5 915.0 1,030.7 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.6 146.3 259.7 483.2 63.9 64.3 Capital transfers 372.1 319.9 319.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.1 10.2 19.8 Payments to the EU budget 405.1 390.3 425.5 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 32.5 19.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,564.1 -1,126.6 -1,557.6 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1,188.8 1,234.9 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,183.0 1,143.6 1,093.2 1,187.0 1,133.7 1,174.3 1,290.1 1,204.9 1,238.2 1,275.2 1201.0 1601.0 1,120.0 1,189.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.5 1,072.7 981.5 1,107.7 1,060.8 1,124.5 1,225.5 1,159.5 1,125.9 1,210.9 1144.3 1291.0 1,059.0 1,107.5 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 1,064.0 1,142.4 1067.1 1196.1 91.6 210.5 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 191.2 187.8 190.0 229.1 432.2 446.0 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 418.9 420.1 427.8 469.7 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5 26.3 26.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 29.8 19.9 35.7 14.8 496.8 414.2 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 421.6 512.7 408.8 485.0 5.9 5.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.1 4.2 3.0 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 -4.5 -5.8 -3.2 -10.0 60.9 82.4 53.6 67.6 67.0 170.7 54.0 117.5 66.2 61.2 63.9 60.6 164.5 96.4 61.9 68.5 77.2 94.8 4.7 2.9 4.1 3.6 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 20.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.0 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 50.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 63.7 41.3 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 53.8 59.0 50.2 288.2 1,346.7 1,241.2 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,460.9 1,348.6 1,327.9 1,452.2 1,260.2 1,299.3 1,373.0 1,179.8 1,293.4 1,332.4 1367.6 1587.6 530.0 507.0 516.2 563.7 530.6 502.2 664.4 568.6 609.9 727.3 519.2 572.5 503.8 460.8 532.1 532.6 565.1 580.1 323.3 305.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 275.6 327.2 269.0 312.4 294.5 280.7 361.5 295.0 290.5 285.7 285.1 295.5 320.0 199.0 195.1 157.0 215.4 209.5 208.3 197.1 155.4 206.6 197.5 194.0 174.3 198.3 161.0 167.4 173.1 183.1 229.6 5.1 2.2 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 72.2 66.8 78.8 2.3 2.5 4.7 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.8 7.6 7.7 28.2 697.0 607.4 598.8 611.3 662.3 674.2 683.1 639.8 625.7 637.4 633.4 622.9 731.8 582.5 608.2 617.1 628.6 660.7 14.7 20.6 22.0 27.4 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 27.9 34.4 48.5 56.4 611.7 519.8 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.6 526.3 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.4 526.0 610.4 503.5 512.1 516.7 513.9 523.8 67.3 62.3 67.0 56.7 70.0 90.1 57.9 41.6 58.5 67.2 57.7 60.3 67.1 53.7 64.8 63.2 63.3 79.0 3.3 4.6 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6 76.7 72.4 74.2 86.5 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.8 41.4 38.1 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.2 95.5 122.6 125.2 235.4 23.5 24.5 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.4 12.6 11.9 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 25.1 41.5 29.6 84.0 19.5 29.9 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 32.5 18.6 19.1 27.3 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ - Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, DUTB - Bank Asset Management Company, EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EFSM - European Financial Stability Mechanism, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI -Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS -European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS - Labour Force Survey, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, MZIP - Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RČV - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - the Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refinedpetroleum products, 20 -Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 - Manufactureof motorvehicles,trailersand semi-trailers, 30 - Manufactureof othertransportequipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror Februa ry 2014, No. 2, Vol. XX