Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 In the spotlight Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 29 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 In the spotlight 3 24 Current Economic Trends 30 4 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 Selected topics 23 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 Selected topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 44 Acronyms Current Economic Trends 7 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 6/2018 Slovenian Economic Mirror No. 6 / Vol. XXIV / 2018 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Acting Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Marjan Hafner, MSc; Matevž Hribernik, MSc; Katarina Ivas, MSc; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič; Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD; Janez Kušar, MSc; Jože Markič, PhD; Tina Nenadič, MSc; Mitja Perko, MSc; Jure Povšnar; Denis Rogan; Dragica Šuc, MSc; Ana Vidrih, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik, MSc; Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD (The geographical and product concentration of Slovenia’s exports) Matevž Hribernik, MSc; (WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2018–2019) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc; Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD; Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc; Janez Kušar, MSc; Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation, Graphs, DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf)) © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight ............................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends ........................................................................................................................5 International environment ........................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia .....................................................................................................9 Labour market .............................................................................................................................................13 Prices ...............................................................................................................................................................14 Balance of payments .................................................................................................................................16 Financial markets .......................................................................................................................................17 Public finance ..............................................................................................................................................18 Selected topics...........................................................................................................................................21 The geographical and product concentration of Slovenia’s exports........................................23 WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2018–2019............................................................................24 Statistical appendix ................................................................................................................................27 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 7 November 2018. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Euro area GDP growth remained modest in the third quarter; in October the IMF lowered slightly its GDP growth forecasts for the euro area for this year. The decline in confidence indicators also suggests a continuation of modest euro area growth until the end of the year. The IMF also downgraded its growth forecasts for world trade this year and next, which is strongly related to more protectionist trade policies. It also points to significantly higher risks of lower growth than forecast. The risks to euro area GDP growth are mainly associated with the situation in Italy, which has already started to affect the bond market. The growth of the export part of the economy has slowed, while the growth of activities oriented predominantly to the domestic market is similar to last year. The strengthening of manufacturing production is somewhat more modest this year in view of lower growth in foreign demand. The growth of goods exports has also moderated slightly in the absence of one-off factors. Meanwhile, activity continues to expand in sectors that mainly rely on domestic demand. In construction particularly the volume of civil-engineering works is on the rise amid increased general and local government investment. Boosted by further growth in household consumption, turnover in trade continues to rise. Employment growth has also eased amid somewhat weaker economic growth and relatively low unemployment. Especially growth in employment arising from inflow from unemployment is more modest, in part owing to the shortage of appropriate workforce. Some sectors, particularly construction and some service activities, are therefore increasingly hiring foreigners. The year-on-year wage growth in the private sector is higher than last year, reflecting the situation on the labour market and last year’s good business results. Owing to last year’s agreements with the trade unions and regular promotions, wage growth is also higher year on year in the public sector. Year-on-year consumer price growth, boosted largely by external factors, remains around 2%. Growth is mainly driven by higher prices of fuels and energy as a consequence of oil price rises on world markets. Growth in heat energy prices has also increased more notably in the last few months and prices of electricity have started to rise. Food price growth is again strengthening gradually. Growth in service prices remains unchanged, while prices of semi-durable and durable goods are down year on year. The situation in the banking system is stable; loans to domestic non-banking sectors are steadily rising. Particularly household borrowing is on the rise. The volume of corporate and NFI loans continues to decline, which is related to somewhat higher loan repayments. With banks continuing to deleverage abroad, liabilities to foreign banks account for only around 4% of the banking system’s total assets. The lower volume of foreign funding is more than offset by domestic non-banking sectors’ deposits, where, owing to the low deposit interest rates, only overnight deposits are on the rise. After the favourable third quarter, the general government surplus was significantly higher year on year in the first nine months of 2018. The continuation of the improvement in the general government balance was supported not only by favourable economic developments, including labour market conditions and past improvement in business results, but also by increased absorption of EU funds. Confidence indicators suggest a continuation of modest economic growth in the euro area. The export part of the economy is growing at a slower pace amid lower growth in foreign demand, while the growth of activities relying primarily on the domestic market is similar to last year. Labour market conditions are improving more slowly, while the unemployment rate is relatively low. Wage growth is strengthening; households are also increasing their consumption by borrowing. Property prices are rising, while the number of property transactions is declining. After the favourable third quarter, the general government surplus was significantly higher year on year in the first nine months of 2018. current economic trends International environment Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area and the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) Economic growth in the euro area remained moderate in the third quarter of 2018. According to preliminary data, GDP rose by only 0.2%, the least in four years. Year on year, it was up 1.7%. Activity increased during the summer months in construction, while it remained moderate in manufacturing and retail trade. The values of economic sentiment indicators (ESI and PMI) continue to decline, suggesting a continuation of modest growth until the end of the year. Figure 2: IMF forecasts for 2018 and 2019 In October, as expected, the IMF reduced slightly its growth forecasts for the global economy for this year and next. The slowdown is a consequence of increased uncertainty in the international environment and weaker economic growth in the euro area and the largest Latin American economies. Global growth nevertheless remains higher than on average in 2012–2017. More protectionist trade policies in several areas significantly influenced the lower forecasts for international trade flows. The IMF points to notably higher risks of lower growth than forecast, which are mainly associated with uncertainty regarding US trade policy, a faster increase in Fed interest rates and renewed geopolitical risks. The downgraded IMF forecasts, along with the identified risks, are in line with IMAD’s assumptions in the Autumn Forecast. Table 1: Brent Crude prices, the USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average change, in %* 2017 IX 18 X 18 X 18/IX 18 X 18/X 17 I-X 18/I-X 17 Brent USD, per barrel 54.25 78.90 81.00 2.7 40.9 39.4 Brent EUR, per barrel 48.06 67.70 70.60 4.3 44.2 31.2 EUR/USD 1.297 1.166 1.148 -1.5 -2.3 6.3 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.329 -0.319 -0.318 0.1 1.2 0.5 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. October’s movements on the bond market were significantly affected by the situation in Italy.1 The yields to maturity of Italian 10-year euro bonds rose by more than 50 basis points in October. The yields to maturity of peripheral euro area countries’ bonds also increased, particularly those of more exposed countries with higher required yields (such as Spain and Portugal). We assess that part of demand shifted to securities of less risky core euro area countries, which was reflected in a lowering of the yields to maturity of their bonds. The yield to maturity of the Slovenian 10-year euro bond thus rose slightly in October, though less than for example those of Spain and Portugal. The spread to the German bond rose from 10 bps to around 70 bps. Figure 3: Yields to maturity of 10-year government bonds in Slovenia and selected EMU countries 1 The deficit envisaged in the Italian draft budget is three times higher than initially planned, reaching 2.4% of GDP. The European Commission warned Italy of non-compliance with EU fiscal rules and the rating agencies responded by lowering (or by announcing a lowering) the credit ratings for the Italian economy. Economic developments in Slovenia The growth of the export part of the economy has moderated, while the growth of activities oriented predominantly to the domestic market is similar to last year. Reflecting lower growth in foreign demand, manufacturing output and turnover of more export-oriented market services are increasing somewhat more modestly than last year. The growth of goods exports is also weaker, in the absence of one-off factors. Meanwhile, activity continues to expand in sectors that mainly rely on domestic demand. In construction, particularly the volume of civil-engineering works is on the rise, amid increased general and local government investment. Turnover in trade continues to rise, boosted by further growth in household consumption. Figure 4: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2017 VIII 18/VII 18 VIII 18/VIII 17 I-VIII 18/I-VIII 17 Merchandise exports, real1 9.8 0.63 6.3 8.8 Merchandise imports, real1 11.8 -4.13 -0.3 8.6 Services exports, nominal2 11.5 -2.03 9.5 10.0 Services imports, nominal2 8.2 3.33 7.1 8.8 Industrial production, real 7.7 2.13 7.04 7.24 - manufacturing 8.3 2.13 7.24 7.74 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 17.7 2.83 33.4 21.1 Distributive trades 8.5 0.63 8.34 7.24 Market services (without trade) - real turnover 8.2 0.83 9.04 8.74 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 External trade statistics, deflated by IMAD, 2 balance of payments statistics, 3 seasonally adjusted, 4 working-day adjusted data. Greater uncertainty in the international environment is significantly affecting export and import activity. The growth of goods exports, which continued during the summer months, remains more modest than last year. As expected, the contribution of vehicle exports is also declining gradually after last year’s considerable increase. Imports of goods are falling, particularly of goods for intermediate consumption, which is partly related to more modest export expectations in manufacturing than at the beginning of the year. Owing to last year’s growth, both exports and imports of goods were significantly higher year on year in the first eight months. Figure 5: Trade in goods – real The growth of exports and imports of services is also lower than in 2017.2 During the summer months, a significant contribution to export growth came from increased arrivals of foreign tourists. Particularly exports of technical trade-related business services have declined, which were the main driver of last year’s growth alongside transport services. The slowdown in the growth of imports of services in the last few months is mainly due to more modest growth in imports of transport and other business services. Figure 6: Trade in services – nominal 2 According to the balance of payments statistics. Production volume in manufacturing is rising more slowly this year amid weaker growth in foreign demand. As a result of last year’s surge, its year-on-year growth in the first eight months was the highest in the EU. It is still mainly driven by the manufacture of motor vehicles, but the contribution of the latter has been declining in recent months (due to the petering out of the base effect – the beginning of production of a new passenger car in the first half of last year). The prospects for this sector’s future exports have diminished considerably since the beginning of the year, which is partly related to the introduction of the new test procedure for determining fuel consumption and exhaust emissions. Expectations in manufacturing otherwise rose at the beginning of the last quarter, particularly in the export part of the sector, but export orders are down on the same period of 2017 according to data from the business tendency survey. Figure 7: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU Figure 8: Value of completed construction works Activity in construction has been rebounding in the last few months. Construction activity has been gradually strengthening in the last two years, though its growth was interrupted temporarily at the beginning of this year due to unfavourable weather conditions. The growth is related to higher investment by the government (and municipalities in the run-up to the local elections), which is indicated in strong growth in civil-engineering works. The construction of buildings, which strengthened towards the end of last year, has stabilised at a somewhat lower level in the last few months. Owing to the increase at the end of last year, however, it remains higher than in the same period of 2017. The greater activity is also reflected in price pressures: price growth in construction prices was last so high in 2008. Figure 9: Prices and transactions in new and existing residential properties Residential property prices continue to rise this year; the number of transactions is declining following vigorous growth in previous years. The year-on-year growth in the average residential property price accelerated further this year, having exceeded the threshold of 6% (used by the European Commission to determine the internal imbalances of EU Member States)3 last year. In the second quarter, the average price of existing residential properties – which account for the majority of all sales – was up 11.7% year on year and was almost as high as the average price in 2008. A strong increase (27.7% year on year) was also recorded for prices of newly built residential properties. The number of transactions in these properties (59) dropped further, however, and was the lowest since measurements began. The sales of existing properties are declining too, following strong rises in 2014–2017. This appears to be related not only to the limited supply of appropriate properties, but also to significant price rises in the recent period, which have made houses and flats less affordable and less attractive as an investment. 3 The average residential property price deflated by the private consumption deflator rose by 6.3% in 2017. In nominal terms, prices were up 8.0%. Figure 10: Road and railway freight transport The volume of road freight transport, particularly abroad, is again strongly rising. The strongest growth is recorded for international road transport performed by domestic hauliers (measured in tonne km), particularly cross-trade transport. Export revenue in road transport (in EUR) is thus one-quarter higher year on year. Freight transport by rail has not been rising since the middle of last year. The rather extended periods when growth in the volume of goods carried by rail comes to a halt before picking up again can also be attributed to the small number of operators and the dominant market position of the largest operator, meaning that the volume of transported freight may also be influenced by the dynamics of acquiring large one-off orders. Figure 11: Nominal turnover in market services The growth of the nominal turnover in market services continues after the moderation at the beginning of the year. Turnover is rising further in professional and technical activities. Higher investment demand and favourable trends in construction have a favourable impact particularly on architectural and engineering services. Further turnover growth is also recorded in administrative and support service activities, particularly employment services. Export turnover, especially of road transport services, is making a significant contribution to turnover growth in transportation and warehousing. Turnover in information and communication activities, on the other hand, is stagnating owing to a standstill in telecommunications, though it remains higher year on year, as is the case for other market service activities. Figure 12: Selected indicators of household consumption Growth in household consumption continues, reflecting further growth in disposable income and consumer loans. Amid rising wages and employment, the net wage bill increased further in the summer; social transfers (including pensions) and the volume of new consumer loans were also higher year on year. With higher income, household purchases of certain durable goods, particularly passenger cars, furniture and household appliances, strengthened further.4 Household spending on certain semi-durable goods and accommodation and food services at home and abroad5 also continued to rise. 4 Turnover of stores selling furniture and household appliances was up 5.8% year on year in real terms in the first eight months; sales of passenger cars to individuals were 6.4% higher year on year in the first ten months. 5 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities, affected not only by increased spending by residents, but also by more foreign tourist arrivals, was up 8.1 % year on year in the first eight months. Resident spending on private trips abroad was also higher. Figure 13: Business trends Economic sentiment improved somewhat at the beginning of the final quarter. Confidence increased the most in manufacturing, mainly owing to more optimistic export expectations. Consumer confidence also improved, after deteriorating in the summer months, due to lower expectations about the economic situation in the coming year. Despite the improvement, confidence in the economy remains lower than a year ago. The labour market Figure 14: Growth in the number of persons in employment by activity Labour market conditions continue to improve, albeit more slowly than last year. The number of persons employed is rising more modestly amid somewhat weaker economic growth, relatively low unemployment and a greater shortage of workers. The decline in the number of registered unemployed eased, for the most part owing to a smaller outflow into employment. At the end of October, 76,232 persons were registered as unemployed, which is 8.1% less than one year earlier. Owing to the shortage of (appropriate) workforce, firms are increasingly hiring foreign nationals. These make up around one-tenth of all persons employed (the most in construction and certain service activities) and contribute one-half to growth in the total number of the employed. Owing to strong growth in 2017, in most private sector activities the number of employed persons increased more year on year in the first eight months than in 2017. As a consequence of growth in the education and health sectors, higher year-on-year growth was also recorded in the public sector. In the first eight months of 2018, both the private and the public sectors saw higher year-on-year wage growth than in the same period of last year. Wage growth in the private sector is due to relatively low unemployment, good business performance and gradual productivity growth in previous years. Wages increased the most in manufacturing, construction and some market services (particularly in accommodation and food service activities and in administrative and support service activities), which is in part related to the shortage of skilled workers. Wage growth in the public sector, on the other hand, is a consequence of last year’s agreements with trade unions and the regular promotions of employees. Figure 15: Average gross earnings per employee Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends change, in % 2017 VIII 18/VII 18 VIII 18/VIII 17 I-VIII 18/I-VIII 17 Persons in formal employment2 3.5 0.21 2.9 3.2 Registered unemployed -14.1 -0.81 -9.4 -13.0 Average nominal gross wage 2.7 0.41 3.5 3.6 private sector 2.9 0.51 4.1 4.1 public sector 2.9 0.11 3.0 3.5 of which general government 2.9 0.01 3.1 2.9 of which public corporations 2.9 -0.11 3.0 4.9 2017 VIII 17 VII 18 VIII 18 Rate of registered unemployment (in %). seasonally adjusted 9.5 9.31 8.3 8.3 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 seasonally adjusted. 2 Persons in paid employment. self-employed persons and farmers (SRDAP). Prices Year-on-year consumer price growth remains around 2%, as expected, being largely driven by external factors. Almost half of overall inflation is attributable to 8.4% higher prices of fuels and energy as a consequence of price rises on world markets. Growth in heat energy prices has also strengthened more notably in the last few months. Prices of electricity have also started to rise gradually. Moreover, somewhat stronger growth is recorded for prices of food, particularly fresh and unprocessed foods (fruits and meat). Growth in service prices remains around 2.5%. According to our estimate, this is to a great extent related to the favourable situation in the hotels and restaurants and tourism sectors. Prices of semi-durable and durable goods remain down year on year. The decline in the prices of used cars has slowed somewhat in the last few months, but is still pronounced, at 5.2%. Core inflation remains around 1%. Figure 16: Year-on-year consumer price growth and contributions of individual groups In the third quarter the growth of import prices accelerated further, while the growth of Slovenian industrial producer prices remained slightly above 2%. The faster growth of import prices in the last few months was mainly attributable to higher prices of oil, electricity and gas on international markets, but it was also partly due to the (again) slightly higher growth of commodity prices. Import prices of consumer goods remain down year on year owing to lower prices of non-durable goods, while prices of durable goods have been rising since the end of the first half of the year. Similar movements are recorded for Slovenian industrial producer prices, which this year are rising at similar rates in Slovenia and on foreign markets. Their growth is mainly driven by commodity prices, which are more than 3% higher year on year amid economic growth. Higher prices of oil, electricity, gas and steam supply are reflected in stronger growth in energy prices, but these are still rising more slowly than import prices. The growth of consumer goods prices remains moderate despite the rising household consumption. Figure 17: Year-on-year growth in import prices and domestic industrial producer prices Table 4: Consumer price growth. in % 2017 VIII 18/VII 18 VIII 18/VIII 17 I-VIII 18/I-VIII 17 Total 1.7 0.3 2.2 1.7 Food 3.1 0.2 2.9 3.1 Fuels and energy 5.3 1.4 8.4 5.7 Services 1.3 -0.6 2.5 2.1 Other1 0.4 0.7 -0.2 -0.4 Osnovna inflacija - brez hrane in energije 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.8 Osnovna inflacija - odrezano povprečje2 1.6 0.0 2.1 1.5 Source: SURS. Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing. footwear. furniture. passenger cars. alcoholic beverages. tobacco. etc.; 2 An approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. With the acceleration of wage growth, unit labour costs rose somewhat (0.9%) in the second quarter following last year’s modest decline.6 More specifically, growth in compensation per employee outpaced productivity growth (4.4% and 3.4% in nominally terms respectively). In the non-tradable sector, wage growth has already (mostly) been higher than productivity growth for a longer period, while in the tradable sector this happened for the first time in two years. Similar current year-on-year dynamics to Slovenia’s were also recorded for the euro area average, but the total increase in unit labour costs was somewhat smaller (0.4%). Figure 18: Real unit labour costs, Slovenia 6 The 0.3% decline was significantly smaller than according to data before the SURS revision (-1.4%). Figure 19: Slovenia's price (REER_hicp) and cost (REER_ulc) competitiveness The price competitiveness of the Slovenian economy against its main trading partners has not changed significantly since the beginning of the year, but on individual markets Slovenia's competitive position could deteriorate due to significant exchange rate changes. The real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP, into which the ECB includes 36 trading partners, remained more-or-less unchanged in the last three quarters.7 However, the indicator of price competitiveness for a broader group of trading partners (56) has deteriorated significantly, to a great extent as a consequence of a notable appreciation of the euro against the Turkish lira8 (i.e. a devaluation of the Turkish lira against foreign currencies). While Slovenia’s direct trade in goods with Turkey is not large,9 Slovenian and Turkish exporters compete on other markets (for example in Germany), which, in the case of related products, could be reflected in lower sales of certain Slovenian products. 7 In contrast, the REER deflated by the ULC, which is computed for the same group of countries, indicates a gradual deterioration of cost competitiveness this year. Higher relative (i.e. against trading partners) unit labour costs have thus far not translated into higher relative final prices (measured by the HICP). 8 Similar, but smaller, was the impact of the appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble, which is also not included in the narrower group. 9 Approximately 1% of Slovenian goods exports go to Turkey. Figure 20: Export market share, global and in the EU The second quarter recorded further growth in Slovenia’s export market shares abroad, but it was somewhat lower than in previous quarters. Growth in Slovenian goods exports has been higher than growth in foreign import demand for the six consecutive year, which means that the market share on foreign markets continues to increase. Year-on-year market share growth is otherwise declining, more so on the global market,10 but also in the EU. Broken down by product group, market share growth in the EU was relatively broad-based. As expected, the road vehicle segment had the largest impact on growth (and the slowdown thereof). 10 To a great extent due to the decline in market share in Russia. Balance of payments The surplus of the current account has reached the highest level thus far. The cumulative 12-month surplus to August amounted to EUR 3.5 billion, which is 7.6% of GDP. The higher surplus than in the same period of last year is mostly due to the high surplus in international trade in goods and services, which reflects relatively favourable export movements and moderate growth in domestic consumption. The deficits in primary and secondary incomes are lower year on year – the former primarily owing to lower costs of servicing external debt and lower net outflows of dividends and profits abroad and the latter because of higher receipts from the EU budget. Figure 21: Components of the current account of the balance of payments Table 5: Balance of payments I-VIII 2018, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-VIII 17 Current account 27,442.5 25,034.9 2,407.7 1,946.4 Goods 20,496.7 19,390.5 1,106.2 988.1 Services 5,191.6 3,148.6 2,043.0 1,827.2 Primary income 1,215.5 1,733.4 -517.9 -641.8 Secondary income 538.8 762.5 -223.6 -227.1 Capital account 720.1 809.1 -89.0 -256.2 Financial account -642.4 855.7 1,498.1 1,312.3 Direct investment 697.2 42.7 -654.5 -63.0 Portfolio investment -443.7 442.2 885.8 859.1 Other investment -861.8 429.4 1,291.2 623.7 Net errors and omissions -820.6 0.0 -820.6 -377.8 Source: BoS.Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts. the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account. “outflows” mean assets. while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows. the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. The net outflow of financial assets abroad continues; in the last 12 months it has been mainly due to the net outflow of portfolio investment. On international financial markets, banks and insurance companies increased financial investments in foreign debt securities, while the government repaid a portion of its liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. A net outflow was also recorded for other investment, particularly owing to financial transactions of the remainder of the sector. Enterprises and other financial corporations were deleveraging abroad. Enterprises also increased short-term commercial credits to the rest of the world, which can be attributed to favourable export trends. In direct investment, net inflows of equity predominated. Slovenian direct investment abroad remains modest, while foreign direct investment in Slovenia has been rising since 2014, though not more than in most new EU Member States. Figure 22: Financial transactions of the balance of payments Financial markets Figure 23: Year-on-year increase in domestic non-banking sector deposits The situation in the banking system remains stable; loans to domestic non-banking sectors continue to strengthen at a moderate pace, while the quality of banks’ assets is improving. Loan growth is mainly driven by household borrowing in the form of housing and consumer loans. Loans for other purposes are also on the rise. On the other hand, the volume of corporate and NFI loans is again falling gradually, which is related to somewhat higher loan repayments, as the volume of newly extended loans increased slightly in recent months. Banks are still deleveraging abroad. The falling volume of foreign funding is more than offset by domestic non-banking sectors’ deposits, where – owing to the low deposit interest rates – only overnight deposits continue to rise. At EUR 1.6 billion, liabilities to foreign banks thus account for only 4% of the banking system’s total assets, compared with over 35% before the crisis. The quality of banks’ assets is steadily improving, the share of arrears of over 90 days11 accounting for 2.7% of the banking system’s total exposure. 11 Data for August 2018. Table 6: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 30. IX 17 31. XII 17 30.IX 18 30. IX 18/31. VIII 18 30. IX 18/30. IX 17 Loans total 21,682.2 22,213.3 22,399.1 0.2 3.3 Enterprises and NFI 10,568.6 10,481.9 10,391.6 0.1 -1.7 Government 1,509.9 1,996.0 1,776.4 -1.8 17.6 Households 9,603.6 9,735.4 10,231.1 0.7 6.5 Consumer credits 2,359.2 2,410.5 2,625.8 1.0 11.3 Lending for house purchase 5,927.5 5,975.7 6,180.5 0.5 4.3 Other lending 1,316.9 1,349.3 1,424.8 0.9 8.2 Bank deposits total 17,701.7 17,897.0 18,727.1 0.2 5.8 Overnight deposits 12,435.6 12,683.9 13,891.3 0.6 11.7 Term deposits 5,266.1 5,213.1 4,835.9 -1.0 -8.2 Government bank deposits, total 689.6 716.4 708.4 2.9 2.7 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 6,002.4 6,428.8 6,487.0 -0.9 8.1 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Public finance After the favourable third quarter, the general government surplus12 was significantly higher year on year in the first nine months of 2018. The continuation of the improvement in the general government balance was supported by favourable economic developments and by increased absorption of EU funds. The surplus accumulated by the end of September (EUR 483 million) is likely to drop somewhat by the end of the year, which is in line with the latest adopted documents and reports.13 Figure 24: General government balance on a cash basis 12 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 13 See the Draft Budgetary Plan 2018–2019 and the Report on the Implementation of the Republic of Slovenia’s Budget for 2018 for the January–June Period. In the latter, the state budget balance in 2018 is estimated at EUR 227 million, which is lower than the state budget balance in the first nine months (EUR 350 million). Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-IX 2017 I-IX 2018 Category I-IX 2017 I-IX 2018 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 12,430.4 6.4 13,491.1 8.5 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 12,380.9 2.4 13,007.8 5.1 Tax revenues1 6,676.9 6.4 7,092.9 6.2 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures2 2,929.6 3.7 3,079.6 5.1 Personal income tax 1,599.6 5.4 1,779.6 11.2 Expenditure on goods and services 1,740.6 5.0 1,843.7 5.9 Corporate income tax 590.7 26.4 645.3 9.2 Interest payments 869.1 -0.9 798.5 -8.1 Taxes on immovable property 158.7 8.7 161.6 1.9 Reserves 90.4 -28.5 101.9 12.8 Value added tax 2,535.2 5.5 2,690.4 6.1 Transfers to individuals and households 5,015.1 2.3 5,205.5 3.8 Excise duties 1,183.8 2.4 1,154.7 -2.5 Other current transfers 907.9 2.5 927.7 2.2 Social security contributions 4,493.9 5.9 4,834.8 7.6 Investment expenditure 545.3 6.7 728.0 33.5 Non-tax revenues 867.9 16.8 845.4 -2.6 Payments to the EU budget 282.9 -7.5 322.9 14.2 Receipts from the EU budget 274.2 -9.6 547.8 99.8 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE 49.5 483.2 Other 117.4 3.9 170.1 45.0 PRIMARY BALANCE 776.3 1,272.0 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions. 2 Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Year-on-year growth in general government revenue strengthened significantly in the third quarter with the increased inflow from the EU budget and totalled 8.5% in the first nine months of 2018. The rapid year-on-year growth in revenues from social contributions and taxes – particularly personal income tax, corporate income tax (CIT) and value added tax (VAT) – continued. This was a consequence of favourable economic developments, including labour market conditions, and past improvement in business results.14 Other major revenue categories were also up year on year, particularly receipts from the EU budget,15 which are partly related to the previous financial perspective. Increased absorption of EU funds is also the main reason for the higher year-on-year growth of revenue in the first nine months of 2018 than in the same period of last year. Figure 25: Revenue growth and contributions of individual categories to growth 14 The year-on-year higher advance payments of CIT arise from the improvement in business results in 2017 compared to the preceding year. 15 Slovenia had a positive net budgetary position against the EU budget in the first nine months (at EUR 222 million). It received EUR 545 million from the EU budget (49% of what was planned for this year) and paid EUR 323 million into it (75% of the amount planned). Almost 40% of all receipts from the EU budget were earmarked for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, while 56% were intended for the implementation of the European Cohesion Policy (through the cohesion fund and structural funds). The year-on-year growth of general government expenditure remained high and dispersed in the third quarter; in the first nine months it totalled 5.1%. In the third quarter, similarly to the second, it was mainly driven by higher expenditure on social transfers (particularly pensions, financial social assistance and sickness benefits), investment, wages, and goods and services. Higher payments into the EU budget also made a contribution to year-on-year expenditure growth. Although slightly mitigated by lower interest payments, expenditure growth in the first nine months was noticeably higher than in the same period of last year. Figure 26: Expenditure growth and contributions of individual categories to growth selected topics The geographical and product concentration of Slovenia’s exports As a very open economy, Slovenia is highly exposed to developments in the international environment. Given the rapid growth of exports in recent years, their share in relation to GDP has increased significantly (to around 85% in the second quarter of 2018) and greatly exceeded the peak from the latest economic boom (70%) and the average in the EU (45% in 2017). A higher degree of openness of an economy is an important source of opportunities and economic growth but also makes it more vulnerable to fluctuations and shocks, particularly if its exports are concentrated on just a few trading partners or export products. Export concentration is measured by indices of geographical or product concentration of exports.1 According to the geographical composition of exports, Slovenia is highly dependent on the EU market, as indeed are most other countries in the EU. A large share of exports to the EU (around 78%) indicates a high level of integration in the European market, particularly the euro area, which means lower exposure to exchange rate fluctuations but also higher exposure to shocks within the EU. Similar is true for other EU countries, particularly those that acceded after 2003. More than half of Slovenian goods exports are concentrated on its five most important EU markets (Germany, Italy, Croatia, Austria and France). In the last ten years the geographical concentration of exports has been practically unchanged. It is similar to the EU average, being higher than, for 1 Export concentration is measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index. The index of geographical concentration of exports takes into account the shares of all trading partners in a country’s exports, while the index of product concentration measures the shares of individual products in a country’s exports. The index for products is calculated at level 2 of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). example, that of Germany and Italy and lower than that of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. The product concentration of exports is slightly higher than that of most EU countries, particularly old Member States, which means somewhat higher exposure to sector-specific movements and shocks. The composition of Slovenian goods exports has been basically unchanged in the last ten years. The top five product groups include road vehicles, electrical machinery and equipment, medicinal and pharmaceutical products, general industrial machinery, and metal products. Their share in total exports totals 46%, which makes Slovenia highly vulnerable to changes in foreign demand for these goods. After declining temporarily during the crisis, the product concentration of exports has risen to its pre-crisis level in recent years. It is somewhat higher than in most old EU countries yet lower than in the majority of new ones2 (the exceptions being the Baltic states, which have notably diversified their exports in the last decade, and Poland). 2 In Slovakia and the Czech Republic, in contrast, the product concentration of exports has increased significantly in the last decade under the impact of sector-specific foreign investment (particularly in the automobile industry). WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2018–2019 Changing its methodology, the WEF3 placed the fourth industrial revolution4 and hence new digital technologies at the centre of global competitiveness in this year’s report. Based on the new methodology, 98 indicators5 were used this year. These are organised into 12 key factors of competitiveness, which are grouped into four categories. The indicators reflect the complexity of productivity factors and the challenges brought by new technologies. The first category, enabling environment, includes basic factors of competitiveness, which include institutions, infrastructure, ICT adoption and macroeconomic stability. The second category, human capital, comprises factors in the areas of health and skills. The third category, markets, includes factors related to product and labour markets, the financial system, and market size. The last category, innovation 3 World Economic Forum. 4 According to the literature, the fourth industrial revolution involves new technologies such as artificial intelligence, 3D printing, the sharing economy and the internet of things. For more see Deep Shift – Technology Tipping Points and Social Impact, WEF, 2015. 5 The indicators are obtained from different sources (World Bank, UNO, etc.); the values of 44 indicators are based on the WEF survey. The indicators are normalised on a 0 to 100 scale (the best performing country getting a score of 100). ecosystem, captures business dynamism and innovation capability in a country. Owing to the changes to the methodology, the data and rankings for previous years are not comparable (with the exception of those for 2017, which were recalculated). The leading countries in terms of competitiveness are those that are successfully dealing with the challenges of new technologies and taking advantage of the opportunities they present. The top ranking countries on the scale are the US, Singapore and Germany; four of the top ten countries are from the EU. The key for achieving a high position is innovation capability supported by an appropriate entrepreneurial culture, as the success of an economy depends not only on innovations, but also on willingness to take risks and to use new technologies in practice. Slovenia is in 35th place among 140 countries in this year’s global competitiveness report. Among EU countries it is 16th. The lag behind the EU average is mainly due to its relatively poor performance in factors related to markets (financial markets and in part also the labour market) and some basic factors of competitiveness (institutions and ICT adoption), while the lag behind the best performers is also related to its innovation ecosystem. The WEF report points to weaknesses in the Slovenian financial system, primarily regarding the availability of funding for SMEs and venture capital. Similarly to other competitiveness surveys (IMD World Competitiveness Report, Doing Business), the WEF report highlights the rigidity of hiring and firing legislation in Slovenia, while it positively assesses workers’ rights. As in other comparable surveys, Slovenia scores relatively low regarding the efficiency of institutions, particularly in the areas of regulation and efficiency of the judicial system. The use of ICT in enterprises and everyday life is generally lower than in the highest ranking countries and lower than in the EU overall. Slovenia scores best in areas related to health, knowledge and skills. Research and development activity is also assessed as very good (for example, R&D expenditure is relatively high in Slovenia), the main weakness being the lack of cooperation between science and the business sector. The key finding of the WEF repost is that it is essential to continue to invest in a broad range of competitiveness factors to ensure a continuation of growth and greater well-being. The WEF maintains that improvement in competitiveness will strengthen the resilience of economies to shocks. The main barriers to competitiveness remain inefficient financial systems and low innovation capability, which are impeding faster progress and generation of new ideas. The WEF does not include economic growth or social and environmental factors in the competitiveness index, but nevertheless emphasises that progress in these areas can only be achieved by increasing competitiveness. Figure 28: International comparison of the index of geographical concentration of Slovenia’s goods exports Figure 27: Geographical and product concentration of Slovenia’s goods exports by year Figure 29: International comparison of the index of product concentration of Slovenia’s goods exports Figure 30: Comparison of WEF indicators for Slovenia, the EU and the five best performing countries statistical appendix Main indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Autumn forecast 2018 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.3 3.1 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,076 36,239 37,603 38,863 40,357 43,000 45,742 48,529 51,445 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,540 17,596 18,238 18,836 19,547 20,815 22,154 23,511 24,936 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,800 21,900 22,700 23,800 24100 25400 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 82 82 82 82 83 85 Rate of registered unemployment 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.7 7.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.5 4.9 4.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) -1.8 0.0 2.6 1.0 1.1 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.6 Inflation2, year average 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.3 Inflation2, end of the year 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.4 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 3.1 5.7 5.0 6.4 10.7 8.2 6.6 7.1 Exports of goods 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 6.2 11.0 8.3 6.8 7.5 Exports of services 1.5 1.9 3.4 3.7 7.6 9.9 7.8 5.5 5.1 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) -3.7 2.1 4.1 4.7 6.6 10.3 8.0 7.1 7.3 Imports of goods -4.3 2.9 3.8 5.1 7.0 11.1 8.5 7.4 7.7 Imports of services 0.2 -3.0 6.2 2.3 4.2 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.5 Current account balance3, in EUR million 775 1,594 2,179 1,760 2,224 3,077 3,119 3,127 3,429 As a per cent share relative to GDP 2.1 4.4 5.8 4.5 5.5 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.7 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,850 41,632 48,709 46,627 44,810 43,813 42.618* As a per cent share relative to GDP 118.8 114.9 129.5 120.0 111.0 101.9 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.107 1.129 1.182 1.150 1.150 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) -2.4 -4.1 1.9 2.3 3.9 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 As a % of GDP 56.9 55.4 54.4 53.6 53.3 51.9 51.3 50.8 50.0 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.4 2.7 0.5 2.7 2.0 1.5 As a % of GDP 20.2 19.5 18.6 18.5 18.8 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.7 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -8.8 3.2 1.0 -1.6 -3.7 10.7 9.0 8.5 7.5 As a % of GDP 19.2 19.8 19.4 18.8 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.3 Sources: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast 2018). Notes: 1 Measured in purchasing power standard; 2 Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; * End August 2018. Production 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.6 7.1 7.9 8.8 6.7 6.6 7.5 5.7 7.8 9.8 7.6 5.3 7.5 3.0 8.0 9.2 6.3 3.0 12.7 1.2 8.2 7.5 7.3 7.5 8.3 13.3 9.8 6.0 11.6 7.8 4.2 9.6 6.1 0.9 7.9 6.8 - - B Mining and quarrying 0.3 1.7 2.6 -7.9 10.1 -1.6 11.4 8.0 3.0 -10.6 -17.2 6.0 50.5 33.3 -15.2 -18.4 7.0 11.6 15.2 7.1 7.8 9.0 38.7 1.2 -16.1 -17.8 -3.0 -8.3 -7.4 -19.1 -23.9 5.7 6.0 6.3 3.9 14.4 - - C Manufacturing 6.0 8.2 8.6 10.2 7.7 7.4 7.7 6.4 8.4 10.8 8.3 5.8 7.8 3.3 9.1 10.4 5.7 2.9 13.7 1.2 9.0 8.6 7.8 7.9 9.3 14.4 10.8 6.9 13.3 8.3 4.3 10.6 6.7 0.9 8.6 7.1 - - D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.5 -3.4 1.9 -4.2 -3.9 -0.4 4.6 -1.1 1.3 2.7 4.4 0.7 -2.7 -5.1 -1.1 4.8 10.6 1.5 1.8 0.4 -0.3 -3.4 -2.0 3.0 3.0 9.1 1.5 -1.9 -0.9 5.8 8.9 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.6 - - CONSTRUCTION2, real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -8.2 -17.7 17.7 -21.4 -12.6 -9.2 19.8 17.3 8.3 26.0 18.6 17.1 -7.4 -15.0 -15.2 9.3 -9.3 20.9 41.4 26.8 4.7 21.7 10.4 7.5 7.0 31.1 26.0 20.0 77.2 6.6 -2.0 12.7 30.7 9.8 25.7 33.5 - - Buildings -4.0 2.4 27.6 -11.5 5.8 19.0 36.8 40.0 9.4 30.7 25.5 16.5 9.6 8.5 14.5 37.3 24.3 25.7 56.5 53.7 33.6 34.7 13.6 3.1 11.3 44.8 30.4 17.7 65.5 19.7 3.9 13.1 29.3 8.5 27.7 29.1 - - Civil engineering -9.8 -24.8 14.4 -24.9 -19.4 -19.0 15.1 9.1 8.3 25.0 13.3 17.8 -13.5 -23.1 -24.4 -2.1 -20.9 21.6 37.2 17.4 -5.0 16.2 9.9 10.0 5.5 26.4 23.8 24.9 79.4 -1.0 -5.5 12.5 31.5 11.2 25.0 35.8 - - MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total 4.6 5.0 8.2 6.7 3.6 3.4 6.2 7.9 8.2 10.1 7.3 8.6 4.2 1.1 3.0 5.9 3.6 3.9 10.6 4.8 11.0 7.8 9.8 8.1 6.8 11.5 10.3 8.6 11.2 5.3 5.7 10.0 8.6 7.3 9.1 9.6 - - Transportation and storage 3.2 3.6 10.8 4.4 2.9 3.3 11.0 9.8 10.9 11.4 8.6 10.1 5.9 0.9 3.3 5.9 9.5 6.2 16.8 4.9 16.0 8.4 13.0 11.2 8.8 15.3 12.4 6.5 13.5 6.3 6.5 11.8 8.1 10.7 12.4 8.6 - - Information and communication activities 4.6 3.5 5.8 4.9 4.3 1.2 3.5 7.7 4.5 7.2 6.2 1.1 7.3 1.9 0.5 1.3 4.0 1.9 4.6 5.4 9.5 8.1 5.5 4.3 3.6 8.8 6.5 6.7 5.2 4.8 8.2 2.4 2.7 -1.6 7.1 3.8 - - Professional, scientific and technical activities 3.5 -0.8 3.7 0.8 -4.5 -0.2 1.2 3.4 1.2 7.8 10.9 18.2 -5.6 -7.3 -0.3 6.5 4.1 -3.8 3.1 -1.1 4.3 6.8 1.6 -2.2 3.9 7.4 3.9 11.6 15.5 9.5 8.5 22.3 19.2 13.8 11.3 23.6 - - Administrative and support service activities 12.1 7.7 12.2 4.9 6.2 11.6 11.9 12.3 9.2 15.6 8.5 11.2 7.1 7.1 9.6 18.6 9.5 11.4 14.5 13.9 12.1 11.0 11.4 7.6 8.5 14.7 22.6 10.1 12.7 9.6 4.1 8.7 13.6 11.3 8.2 10.9 - - DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 4.6 6.7 8.5 6.7 4.6 9.2 10.8 7.8 10.0 6.0 3.9 7.8 4.2 6.4 10.3 10.8 13.2 6.0 13.2 3.5 9.4 10.5 10.8 11.6 7.6 8.5 8.7 0.9 5.7 2.5 3.6 8.3 8.9 6.4 10.9 7.7 - - Real turnover in retail trade 1.1 4.4 7.4 2.1 3.0 10.1 12.1 8.3 8.1 2.2 -0.9 2.5 2.4 7.7 11.4 11.1 13.9 8.7 13.3 5.8 9.4 9.8 9.4 7.8 7.2 2.7 6.2 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 0.3 -0.3 4.8 2.9 3.0 4.4 - - Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 14.0 21.8 14.1 24.1 18.9 20.8 15.8 12.7 13.5 14.6 12.3 15.8 18.7 16.9 22.9 22.6 19.4 9.0 18.9 9.6 12.8 15.7 12.0 18.9 10.5 21.6 16.1 6.3 14.2 12.0 11.1 19.2 16.8 11.6 27.4 18.6 - - Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 3.5 3.5 6.9 4.0 1.7 5.0 8.5 5.7 8.8 5.0 4.1 8.8 1.4 2.3 5.7 7.0 10.8 3.3 11.3 -0.3 8.5 8.7 10.4 10.8 5.6 7.7 7.3 0.1 7.2 2.3 3.1 10.7 8.8 7.1 11.8 7.0 - - TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 7.2 7.6 11.3 0.9 9.0 11.3 4.7 18.0 11.5 8.6 11.4 22.4 14.6 13.7 12.6 7.2 5.0 2.5 6.5 27.1 5.0 22.6 13.2 12.6 6.7 8.1 8.2 10.1 9.3 7.2 17.5 14.1 34.2 19.7 31.8 32.7 51.3 - Domestic tourists, overnight stays 6.3 2.8 4.3 1.0 4.6 3.4 4.1 5.1 2.8 6.2 3.2 11.8 15.3 -5.9 11.4 7.0 -2.8 -3.6 20.9 -1.6 5.8 9.7 5.5 3.8 -3.3 15.6 -0.9 3.6 13.1 0.1 -0.8 14.3 8.1 12.9 7.9 12.3 17.6 - Foreign tourists, overnight stays 7.7 10.3 15.0 0.8 10.9 17.1 5.2 24.7 15.1 10.2 17.9 27.1 14.3 26.9 13.6 7.4 10.0 9.7 -3.0 46.7 4.7 29.1 16.5 16.1 10.9 4.3 15.8 14.8 7.2 14.6 32.5 14.0 46.0 22.7 41.0 39.8 63.5 - Accommodation and food service activities 7.4 11.0 8.8 8.2 13.2 12.2 7.8 11.7 9.2 6.4 6.4 8.3 16.9 14.2 10.2 11.9 6.6 5.9 10.5 12.9 9.6 12.8 11.5 11.3 4.3 6.5 7.2 5.7 10.7 3.6 5.1 8.3 10.1 6.7 8.1 10.5 - - AGRICULTURE Purchase of agricultural products, in EUR m 472.9 465.7 518.7 110.1 118.2 132.9 108.7 119.8 135.2 155.0 110.9 122.0 42.9 46.3 42.9 43.6 35.0 34.2 39.5 36.8 42.0 41.1 45.8 42.3 47.1 57.6 48.4 49.0 37.2 34.0 39.7 39.6 41.5 40.9 42.9 42.2 - - BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 5.1 5.5 12.5 4.6 6.1 7.7 11.0 11.1 12.0 15.8 14.2 12.7 6.5 6.9 7.9 8.2 9.9 10.4 12.6 11.6 9.5 12.2 11.7 11.6 12.6 15.5 16.1 15.9 16.1 14.4 12 13 12 13.1 10.5 10.5 8.1 11.6 Confidence indicator in manufacturing 6 5 10 6 5 6 10 8 9 13 12 8 4 6 6 7 8 10 12 9 6 9 8 8 11 12 14 13 14 12 10 8 8 8 5 6 2 10 in construction -14 -10 12 -15 -8 -1 4 9 17 19 22 24 -1 -3 1 2 -1 7 6 9 7 12 17 17 18 22 15 20 22 22 23 24 24 25 22 21 17 19 in services 16 19 25 19 19 21 24 25 24 28 24 25 19 21 21 21 22 23 26 27 24 24 24 25 23 27 29 29 25 24 23 25 25 24 24 24 25 24 in retail trade 15 19 21 13 25 16 19 18 22 26 19 11 30 10 19 19 12 18 28 12 10 32 24 19 24 28 30 20 32 20 5 11 0 23 11 11 17 19 consumer confidence indicator -11 -14 -4 -17 -12 -10 -7 -5 -4 0 0 1 -11 -11 -10 -9 -3 -8 -9 -5 -6 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 1 2 0 -1 1 0 1 -2 -4 -9 -7 Source: SURS. Opombe: 1 Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. Labour market 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2016 2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 917.4 920.4 934.1 919.7 917.7 926.2 927.6 934.3 932.5 942.0 943.1 948.8 916.6 919.6 926.6 927.9 924.1 926.4 927.5 928.8 933.4 934.4 935.1 931.6 931.7 934.2 941.4 943.4 941.3 942.3 942.5 944.4 947.9 949.0 949.6 947.7 948.4 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 804.6 817.2 845.5 817.2 820.3 828.3 827.5 846.5 849.3 858.5 858.1 872.0 818.7 824.4 829.3 831.1 824.5 822.7 826.2 833.6 842.3 846.8 850.3 846.9 847.9 853.2 858.4 861.0 856.2 854.4 856.8 863.2 869.3 872.3 874.6 871.6 872.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 29.9 23.1 25.0 23.8 22.1 22.8 22.3 27.3 25.2 25.2 24.7 27.2 22.1 22.2 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.2 22.3 22.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.9 27.2 27.2 27.2 25.3 25.2 In industry, construction 255.2 260.3 269.1 260.7 262.5 263.3 261.2 268.7 271.9 274.8 273.7 279.6 262.0 263.5 264.6 265.1 260.1 258.7 260.4 264.6 266.6 268.9 270.5 271.1 271.6 273.0 275.2 276.3 272.9 272.0 272.7 276.4 278.3 279.6 281.1 281.8 282.7 - in manufacturing 181.0 186.7 193.9 186.2 187.3 189.0 189.7 192.8 195.0 198.0 199.3 201.6 187.1 188.1 188.9 189.6 188.6 188.6 189.6 190.9 191.5 193.0 193.9 194.5 194.8 195.8 197.6 198.3 198.1 198.4 199.0 200.4 200.9 201.6 202.4 202.5 203.1 - in construction 54.3 53.9 55.7 54.6 55.4 54.7 52.2 56.3 57.2 57.2 54.9 58.1 55.2 55.7 56.0 55.9 52.2 50.8 51.5 54.3 55.6 56.3 56.9 56.9 57.1 57.5 58.0 58.4 55.3 54.2 54.2 56.3 57.4 58.1 58.8 59.4 59.7 In services 519.6 533.8 551.3 532.7 535.7 542.3 544.0 550.6 552.3 558.5 559.7 565.2 534.6 538.8 541.8 543.2 541.8 541.7 543.6 546.6 548.5 550.8 552.4 550.7 551.1 555.0 557.9 559.4 558.2 557.7 559.5 561.9 563.9 565.5 566.3 564.6 564.6 - in public administration 48.1 48.4 48.8 48.4 48.6 48.6 48.6 48.8 49.0 49.0 48.8 49.1 48.6 48.7 48.7 48.7 48.4 48.4 48.5 48.7 48.6 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.0 49.1 49.1 49.0 48.8 48.7 48.8 48.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 49.0 49.1 - in education, health-services and social work 124.0 127.7 131.6 127.6 127.3 130.0 130.8 131.4 130.8 133.5 134.3 135.0 126.5 128.8 129.7 130.3 130.1 130.3 130.8 131.2 131.3 131.6 131.4 130.0 130.0 132.4 133.2 133.7 133.7 134.0 134.2 134.6 134.9 135.0 135.1 133.3 133.1 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 713.1 730.5 755.3 730.2 734.6 741.1 740.5 754.3 758.9 767.4 767.5 778.9 733.1 738.4 742.2 743.8 737.4 735.8 739.2 746.4 750.3 754.7 758.0 756.8 757.5 762.5 767.3 769.7 765.1 763.8 766.3 772.3 776.2 779.0 781.4 780.3 781.0 In enterprises and organisations 662.3 680.2 704.3 679.6 683.6 690.2 691.1 702.6 707.3 716.2 718.1 727.7 682.2 687.3 690.7 692.4 687.6 687.1 690.3 695.9 699.0 703.0 705.9 705.1 705.9 710.9 715.5 718.1 715.1 714.8 717.3 722.2 725.3 727.8 730.0 728.8 729.6 By those self-employed 50.8 50.3 51.0 50.7 51.0 50.9 49.4 51.7 51.6 51.2 49.4 51.2 50.9 51.2 51.5 51.5 49.8 48.7 48.9 50.5 51.3 51.8 52.1 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 51.6 50.0 49.0 49.0 50.1 50.9 51.2 51.4 51.5 51.4 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 91.6 86.7 90.2 87.0 85.8 87.2 87.0 92.1 90.4 91.2 90.6 93.2 85.7 86.0 87.1 87.2 87.1 86.8 87.0 87.2 92.1 92.1 92.2 90.1 90.4 90.7 91.1 91.3 91.1 90.6 90.5 90.9 93.1 93.2 93.2 91.3 91.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 112.7 103.2 88.6 102.5 97.4 97.9 100.1 87.8 83.2 83.5 84.9 76.7 97.9 95.1 97.3 96.8 99.6 103.7 101.3 95.2 91.1 87.7 84.8 84.7 83.8 81.0 83.0 82.4 85.1 87.9 85.7 81.2 78.6 76.7 75.0 76.1 75.9 Female 57.5 52.4 45.4 52.3 50.6 50.2 49.5 45.5 43.7 42.9 42.1 39.3 51.0 49.4 50.6 50.1 49.7 50.5 49.8 48.3 46.9 45.5 44.1 44.5 44.3 42.3 43.4 42.8 42.5 43.1 42.1 41.0 40.2 39.3 38.4 39.4 39.5 By age: 15 to 29 26.7 22.5 17.5 21.7 20.5 21.6 20.7 17.0 15.2 17.1 16.4 14.1 19.6 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.6 20.9 19.4 18.2 17.0 15.9 15.7 15.3 14.6 17.3 16.9 17.0 17.2 16.4 15.5 14.7 14.0 13.4 13.8 13.8 Aged over 50 36.7 36.5 34.3 36.8 35.4 35.0 36.9 34.3 33.2 32.7 33.8 31.7 35.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 35.7 37.6 37.2 35.8 35.0 34.3 33.6 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.4 32.4 33.2 34.5 34.0 32.8 32.2 31.7 31.1 31.0 30.6 Primary education or less 32.3 30.2 26.7 30.0 28.2 28.8 30.6 26.3 24.6 25.2 26.6 23.7 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.1 30.1 32.0 31.2 28.6 27.2 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.6 26.4 27.7 27.0 25.2 24.2 23.7 23.2 23.1 23.0 For more than 1 year 59.7 55.1 47.0 56.0 53.5 52.3 51.2 48.1 45.2 43.7 42.9 40.8 53.6 52.7 52.8 52.2 51.9 52.1 51.3 50.3 49.1 48.1 46.9 46.0 45.2 44.3 44.2 43.7 43.3 43.7 42.9 42.2 41.5 41.0 40.1 39.9 39.6 Those receiving benefits 23.7 23.1 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.5 27.3 19.5 19.8 20.2 24.4 18.7 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.5 23.8 28.4 26.8 24.7 20.3 19.2 19.1 19.8 20.0 19.4 19.0 19.2 22.2 25.7 24.6 23.0 19.3 18.6 18.1 18.0 18.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 12.3 11.2 9.5 11.1 10.6 10.6 10.8 9.4 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.1 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.1 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 Male 11.1 10.2 8.5 10.1 9.4 9.5 10.4 8.3 7.8 7.9 8.4 7.3 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.3 9.3 8.7 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.7 8.3 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 Female 13.7 12.4 10.6 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.8 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.0 12.1 11.7 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.3 10.4 10.4 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 9.1 9.1 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -6.4 -13.5 -14.6 -10.4 -4.7 4.5 1.7 -10.4 -3.8 4.1 -3.8 -6.2 -1.2 -2.8 2.1 -0.4 2.8 4.1 -2.4 -6.2 -4.1 -3.4 -2.9 -0.1 -0.8 -2.9 2.0 -0.6 2.6 2.9 -2.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 1.1 -0.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 15.8 14.2 12.3 2.0 2.7 6.5 1.8 1.8 2.3 5.7 2.1 1.6 0.6 1.4 4.5 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.2 4.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 Redundancies 81.3 75.7 70.0 15.4 16.3 20.3 17.1 13.7 15.5 18.6 19.5 13.4 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.1 8.3 12.0 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.4 6.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 5.4 7.6 10.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2 6.0 4.2 Registered unemployed who found employment 71.0 74.9 68.6 20.6 16.1 14.5 12.6 18.5 14.3 13.6 20.0 16.4 4.3 6.8 5.3 5.1 4.0 6.3 6.3 9.7 6.9 6.1 5.4 4.3 3.5 6.4 5.1 4.8 3.7 6.2 5.6 8.2 6.5 5.3 4.6 3.6 3.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.6 28.6 28.3 7.2 7.5 7.9 4.6 7.4 7.3 6.7 5.4 4.8 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 FIXED TERM WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 23.2 19.2 18.0 20.0 18.2 17.1 16.8 17.2 18.4 19.4 21.0 23.6 18.2 17.6 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.6 19.8 19.8 20.2 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.6 24.6 23.3 24.2 As % of labour force 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 Sources: SURS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1 In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Wages in EUR 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2017 Q2 18 Aug 18 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal in € y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,627 1,660 1,670 0.7 1.8 2.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.7 2.1 0.5 1.9 1.3 3.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.6 2.9 4.6 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.5 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,529 1,599 1,615 0.8 1.3 2.7 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.6 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.8 2.5 0.2 2.1 0.7 3.6 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.4 3.4 4.3 4.6 4.5 3.9 3.1 5.4 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.6 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,786 1,861 1,849 0.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.7 2.9 1.3 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 3.4 2.7 4.8 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Industry (B–E) 1,584 1,651 1,692 1.7 1.9 3.2 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.6 4.8 4.0 4.0 7.1 4.1 0.2 2.6 1.4 4.6 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 4.6 3.9 5.9 5.9 4.1 2.1 5.5 3.2 3.3 5.0 4.2 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,399 1,478 1,463 0.9 0.9 2.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.8 4.0 3.7 4.3 5.4 2.3 0.2 2.5 0.3 3.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 2.4 3.2 5.5 3.1 3.4 4.4 3.3 6.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.4 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,698 1,765 1,786 -0.4 0.7 2.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.0 0.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.3 3.1 2.2 3.7 4.5 3.6 3.0 4.7 4.6 3.3 3.8 2.3 3.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,312 1,357 1,372 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 0.7 -3.3 0.2 0.3 -1.2 1.5 1.1 5.6 -2.5 -0.6 -0.7 1.7 -0.5 2.1 -0.6 -3.2 1.1 -1.5 1.5 1.1 1.9 4.7 1.9 -2.9 6.9 5.7 4.3 6.8 4.1 B Mining and quarrying 2,082 2,199 2,234 -5.9 2.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 5.6 4.2 3.2 0.5 -2.8 12.6 4.7 4.7 6.5 6.7 -0.3 6.4 1.9 1.5 2.0 -1.0 0.5 -2.3 -3.5 -2.8 28.5 2.7 6.5 6.7 10.9 -2.8 4.0 5.5 C Manufacturing 1,597 1,610 1,650 2.1 2.1 3.2 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.8 5.0 4.2 4.1 7.5 4.1 -0.2 2.7 1.4 4.5 2.2 3.2 2.8 2.3 5.3 4.1 5.7 5.9 4.5 2.4 5.6 3.5 3.1 5.2 4.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,449 2,528 2,605 -1.0 1.3 4.3 1.9 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.1 3.6 6.2 1.5 6.5 6.0 3.9 6.2 2.6 1.9 8.5 -0.7 0.9 6.2 3.7 0.1 2.9 15.5 4.7 -0.5 0.6 5.0 0.7 14.0 3.1 1.9 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,577 1,579 1,618 1.5 1.9 3.5 2.6 1.7 1.2 4.2 4.0 1.4 4.2 2.2 1.4 4.7 6.3 2.1 4.3 1.9 4.1 5.8 2.2 1.7 0.3 2.3 6.8 3.3 2.3 4.6 -0.1 3.5 2.8 -1.9 4.9 3.7 F Constrution 1,238 1,281 1,290 -0.2 1.3 2.7 1.5 1.9 0.4 1.1 2.7 2.3 4.4 4.8 4.3 2.2 1.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.2 4.4 3.8 2.8 3.0 1.1 4.5 4.2 4.5 6.6 5.8 2.2 6.8 3.5 2.7 5.1 2.6 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,485 1,537 1,509 1.4 1.6 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.3 2.5 2.6 3.4 4.5 4.2 4.7 4.1 2.8 0.5 4.0 0.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.8 4.3 5.3 4.0 5.0 3.7 7.3 3.7 3.0 4.0 3.4 H Transportation and storage 1,492 1,523 1,512 0.5 -0.5 1.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 3.1 2.4 3.1 10.7 1.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 3.2 1.6 1.2 2.0 1.4 2.2 9.3 -1.9 1.8 3.3 2.3 4.5 1.2 3.7 3.4 2.8 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,116 1,168 1,196 -1.0 1.4 2.8 0.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.2 1.1 2.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 3.1 2.5 3.3 3.8 2.7 2.8 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.5 5.6 4.5 5.4 4.7 5.1 J Information and communication 2,157 2,183 2,285 1.0 0.5 2.4 0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.8 1.4 3.1 3.2 1.8 3.6 1.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 0.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.8 3.5 1.3 3.7 4.5 2.3 3.9 -0.6 5.0 3.3 2.7 5.5 5.5 K Financial and insurance activities 2,367 2,461 2,345 2.1 1.5 3.2 -0.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.8 5.3 6.3 5.8 1.2 1.8 1.4 3.6 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.9 1.9 3.6 2.7 8.2 4.5 4.4 -0.7 14.7 5.1 4.4 8.0 2.7 0.8 L Real estate activities 1,516 1,502 1,499 -0.7 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.7 2.5 0.6 1.1 0.1 7.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 3.4 4.5 0.3 1.9 4.1 1.6 0.8 -0.4 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 -1.0 0.8 1.0 -1.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,808 1,843 1,899 0.8 0.8 3.9 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.4 3.4 4.9 5.8 5.7 4.2 2.4 2.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 4.5 4.9 4.1 5.7 5.0 4.7 6.5 6.0 7.0 5.8 4.3 5.9 4.4 2.3 3.6 3.3 N Administrative and support service activities 1,081 1,129 1,155 0.4 3.4 2.5 3.8 3.1 2.9 1.0 2.5 2.3 4.2 5.7 5.6 5.4 1.9 0.0 1.0 0.8 4.0 2.6 2.6 1.2 3.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 3.9 7.2 6.0 6.6 4.5 5.6 1.2 8.3 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,948 1,981 2,016 2.1 4.7 4.0 4.3 5.4 2.3 1.5 4.5 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.6 -1.4 1.1 1.6 1.9 4.2 5.1 4.2 7.2 4.7 6.3 3.9 4.9 3.1 4.9 3.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 4.0 3.6 P Education 1,717 1,746 1,706 -0.2 2.5 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.8 3.3 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.4 Q Human health and social work activities 1,815 1,896 1,874 0.3 3.1 3.1 2.2 3.0 3.4 1.0 2.2 3.2 5.9 4.6 5.6 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 3.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.0 5.3 6.0 5.3 6.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.2 4.5 4.9 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,678 1,718 1,691 -0.5 2.3 1.7 2.4 1.7 3.3 1.9 1.6 3.1 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.2 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.2 5.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.0 1.3 2.7 3.2 1.3 1.8 S Other service activities 1,347 1,346 1,366 -2.2 -0.9 0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.0 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.7 0.0 3.3 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 -0.8 0.1 1.6 2.2 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. Prices and indicators of overall competitiveness 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % -0.5 0.5 1.7 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2 2.2 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.9 1.7 2.9 1.3 1.7 2.9 1.9 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.5 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.7 2.8 3.6 2.4 1.8 2.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 1.9 0.4 3.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 Clothing and footwear -0.9 -2.9 1.3 -1.7 -0.5 -0.9 0.6 2.4 -1.0 0.1 -1.6 -1.3 1.8 -0.3 -2.9 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 3.4 1.2 2.7 -2.4 -1.8 1.3 0.1 1.5 -1.2 -1.7 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1 -1 0.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas -1.3 -0.1 3.6 -1.0 -0.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.4 4 3.8 5.2 5.9 Furnishing, household equipm. -1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.6 -0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.3 1 0.4 Medical, pharmaceutical produ. 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.8 Transport -5.1 -0.1 1.6 -3.1 -0.3 3.9 1.8 0.7 1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.9 -1 0.1 -0.1 3.3 4.3 4.0 3.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 Communications 1.1 2.9 -2.3 2.6 2.2 2.8 1.1 -0.8 -1.8 -1.6 0.2 0.8 2 1.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 2.1 2.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -2.5 -1.0 -1.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 Recreation and culture 1.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.6 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.9 1.5 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 1.1 2.8 1.6 1.4 1 1.2 2.6 Education 0.6 0.3 3.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 1.8 Catering services 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5 HICP -0.8 0.6 1.9 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 2 2.2 2.3 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -0.2 0.5 2.2 -1.3 -0.1 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 Domestic market -0.5 -0.2 1.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 Non-domestic market 0.1 1.2 2.6 -1.2 0.5 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.5 Euro area 0.1 0.6 2.3 -1.9 0.1 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.9 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 Non-euro area -0.1 2.3 3.6 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.6 3.9 4.0 2.5 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.8 2.3 3.9 5.1 4.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.6 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.0 Import price indices -0.7 2.7 1.6 -1.7 0.9 4.8 3.8 2.4 2.4 0.5 2.4 4.3 0.1 0.1 2.7 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.0 2.5 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate2, nominal -3.1 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 Real (deflator HICP) -4.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 Real (deflator ULC) -3.7 1.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -1.5 -0.9 1.3 0.8 2.1 1.7 USD / EUR 1.1096 1.1066 1.1293 1.1164 1.0789 1.0647 1.1003 1.1744 1.1777 1.2294 1.1922 1.1631 1.1026 1.0799 1.0543 1.0614 1.0643 1.0685 1.0723 1.1058 1.1229 1.1511 1.1807 1.1915 1.1756 1.1738 1.1836 1.2200 1.2348 1.2336 1.2276 1.1812 1.1678 1.1686 1.1549 1.1659 Sources: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 19 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. Balance of payments 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2016 2017 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 1,760 2,224 3,077 562 584 372 764 653 1,001 660 678 965 94 355 262 78 32 262 260 241 257 117 279 316 213 471 450 57 153 237 153 288 338 232 395 423 341 Goods 1,476 1,536 1,561 449 376 227 362 421 479 299 331 450 5 226 134 43 49 88 100 174 151 69 200 174 32 274 235 51 14 74 71 187 169 69 211 210 115 Exports 24,039 24,991 28,462 6,400 6,119 6,407 6,868 7,131 7,035 7,428 7,541 7,942 1,744 2,302 2,163 2,225 2,018 2,120 2,154 2,595 2,203 2,416 2,513 2,347 2,075 2,612 2,639 2,576 2,213 2,390 2,368 2,782 2,511 2,681 2,749 2,746 2,268 Imports 22,563 23,454 26,901 5,950 5,743 6,180 6,507 6,711 6,556 7,128 7,209 7,492 1,739 2,076 2,029 2,182 1,969 2,032 2,054 2,421 2,052 2,346 2,313 2,174 2,044 2,338 2,404 2,525 2,199 2,316 2,297 2,595 2,342 2,612 2,538 2,536 2,153 Services 1,930 2,251 2,719 546 675 544 602 686 804 627 615 755 246 247 233 161 150 195 182 224 252 203 231 240 300 264 282 147 199 223 164 227 265 234 256 335 338 Exports 5,936 6,487 7,275 1,549 1,832 1,717 1,557 1,761 2,069 1,888 1,672 1,945 634 609 580 541 596 493 497 567 587 565 610 687 717 665 658 564 666 549 505 617 674 619 652 790 784 Imports 4,007 4,236 4,556 1,003 1,157 1,173 956 1,075 1,265 1,261 1,057 1,190 389 362 347 380 446 297 315 343 335 362 379 447 417 401 376 416 468 326 341 390 409 384 397 455 447 Primary income -1,294 -1,215 -926 -373 -361 -340 -112 -368 -220 -226 -152 -205 -128 -82 -88 -104 -148 6 10 -129 -113 -135 -119 -62 -100 -58 -52 -122 -52 -39 -27 -87 -76 -56 -73 -81 -80 Receipts 1,314 1,487 1,669 364 349 331 449 438 365 417 496 440 112 138 98 105 129 184 162 103 131 157 149 134 104 127 125 137 154 175 182 139 137 162 141 148 132 Expenditures 2,608 2,702 2,596 737 710 671 561 806 586 643 649 645 240 219 186 209 276 178 152 231 245 292 269 196 204 186 177 260 206 214 209 226 213 218 214 228 212 Secondary income -352 -349 -276 -61 -105 -59 -88 -86 -62 -41 -116 -35 -29 -36 -17 -22 -19 -28 -32 -27 -33 -20 -33 -36 -18 -8 -15 -19 -7 -21 -56 -39 -21 -16 2 -41 -32 Receipts 735 724 838 177 179 210 187 203 207 241 192 222 58 61 71 66 74 65 61 61 69 71 63 64 67 76 77 74 90 63 62 67 78 66 78 63 62 Expenditures 1,087 1,073 1,115 237 284 269 275 289 269 282 307 257 86 97 88 88 93 93 93 89 102 92 96 100 85 84 91 94 98 84 117 106 99 82 76 104 94 Capital account 412 -303 -324 -89 -54 -107 -142 -65 -59 -59 -40 -32 -12 -20 8 -35 -79 -11 -17 -113 -15 -18 -31 -141 91 -9 31 -5 -85 -12 -14 -14 -7 -7 -17 -23 6 Financial account 1,710 1,153 1,754 229 430 152 453 590 608 103 521 713 -161 305 -1,284 1,825 -388 469 122 -138 189 165 236 88 181 339 332 -21 -208 448 265 -192 201 521 -9 261 3 Direct investment -1,269 -864 -414 -375 -298 99 -179 76 -101 -211 -125 -161 -199 -30 59 -77 118 82 -45 -216 60 -14 30 69 -29 -141 99 -139 -170 -10 -76 -39 -44 15 -132 -211 -158 Assets 292 434 551 71 56 143 174 266 96 16 242 -87 -107 29 129 -65 78 57 82 36 134 35 96 86 -124 133 171 -107 -48 34 116 93 -11 -63 -13 102 -215 Liabilities 1,560 1,298 966 446 353 44 354 190 196 226 367 74 92 58 70 12 -39 -25 126 252 75 49 66 17 -95 274 72 32 122 44 192 132 33 -78 119 313 -57 Portfolio investment 2,940 5,094 2,958 1,103 705 2,697 -326 526 662 2,095 -1,335 1,539 332 52 575 1,455 667 -666 315 25 359 -300 468 402 257 3 1,067 423 605 -1,468 309 -175 314 1,275 -50 229 452 Financial derivatives -98 -216 -248 -108 -34 -45 -73 -118 -24 -33 -6 -12 -21 -21 -23 -12 -9 -6 -32 -35 -36 -37 -44 -11 -5 -8 -10 -12 -10 1 0 -7 -6 -4 -2 -1 5 Other investment 250 -2,764 -630 -351 106 -2,583 989 73 45 -1,737 1,999 -631 -255 318 -1,894 492 -1,181 1,032 -71 28 -191 514 -250 -382 -56 482 -838 -256 -643 1,929 67 2 -57 -766 192 238 -314 Assets -650 -2,340 -1,584 -637 -1,078 -690 -30 -343 -1,143 -69 672 265 -940 -97 -521 316 -485 -6 235 -259 296 -356 -283 -435 -302 -405 -112 54 -10 306 48 318 -139 34 370 -78 -429 Other equity 10 0 -1 -1 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits -516 -2,205 -2,190 -578 -1,020 -282 -626 -460 -1,290 186 142 69 -736 -282 -705 412 10 -276 14 -365 311 -428 -343 -455 -154 -681 -222 64 343 189 -240 193 8 -19 80 -74 -43 Loans -408 -203 -115 -67 -36 -111 -49 6 -38 -35 -7 92 -15 0 -22 -27 -62 -24 -27 2 -22 26 2 -8 -17 -13 14 -17 -32 2 14 -23 8 28 56 4 -15 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -8 10 5 2 0 1 3 -1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trade credit and advances -5 156 599 119 -72 -206 517 161 110 -189 448 96 -205 166 145 2 -353 193 189 135 74 1 85 24 -174 261 118 11 -318 63 133 252 -49 -20 165 24 -196 Other assets 277 -97 119 -112 49 -88 126 -49 73 -31 87 6 15 19 61 -72 -77 100 57 -32 -67 44 -26 3 42 27 -23 -4 -4 51 140 -104 -107 45 67 -32 -175 Liabilities -900 423 -954 -285 -1,184 1,893 -1,019 -416 -1,187 1,668 -1,327 896 -685 -415 1,374 -176 696 -1,038 306 -286 487 -870 -33 -53 -246 -888 726 309 633 -1,623 -19 316 -83 800 178 -316 -115 Other equity 11 4 20 4 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits -400 1,175 438 -320 -406 1,353 -856 60 -410 1,644 -1,239 255 -333 -174 691 -12 673 -915 177 -118 576 -574 58 176 76 -662 695 231 718 -1,339 -123 222 -55 388 -77 81 146 Loans -315 -818 -1,854 -123 -533 334 -391 -507 -695 -262 -237 148 -310 -124 395 -117 56 -75 17 -333 -49 -313 -144 -167 -300 -227 -115 -127 -19 -160 -18 -59 49 84 15 6 -58 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 3 -8 5 12 -28 -3 19 -8 2 -8 27 21 -9 -9 -1 -1 -1 6 6 6 -3 -3 -3 1 1 1 -3 -3 -3 9 9 9 7 7 7 0 0 Trade credit and advances -100 137 410 153 -170 233 191 53 -57 223 111 244 -141 39 156 80 -4 -50 110 131 -7 -14 74 -50 -95 89 151 135 -63 -185 70 227 -13 -5 262 -54 -223 Other liabilities -99 -67 26 -12 -46 -24 18 -34 -28 70 11 227 108 -146 132 -127 -29 -5 -5 28 -30 13 -17 -12 73 -88 -3 74 -1 52 43 -84 -70 327 -29 -348 20 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -113 -97 89 -40 -50 -17 43 33 25 -12 -12 -22 -18 -15 0 -33 17 27 -45 61 -2 2 33 10 14 2 14 -36 11 -4 -34 26 -6 1 -17 6 18 Net errors and omissions -462 -768 -999 -244 -100 -113 -169 1 -334 -498 -117 -220 -243 -30 -1,554 1,783 -341 218 -120 -266 -53 66 -12 -87 -123 -124 -150 -72 -275 222 127 -466 -129 296 -387 -139 -345 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,596 2,781 3,201 691 674 772 746 791 786 877 834 890 191 251 248 259 265 228 229 289 240 275 275 266 220 300 311 284 282 243 271 320 279 307 304 306 N/A Intermediate goods 13,355 13,731 15,335 3,544 3,360 3,456 3,826 3,864 3,746 3,898 4,087 4,216 1,005 1,242 1,204 1,223 1,029 1,213 1,195 1,418 1,199 1,345 1,320 1,261 1,118 1,367 1,389 1,403 1,106 1,313 1,308 1,465 1,340 1,420 1,456 1,451 N/A Consumer goods 7,989 8,459 9,730 2,178 2,058 2,166 2,260 2,431 2,444 2,594 2,623 2,776 535 800 709 735 721 665 700 895 742 783 906 811 706 928 907 876 811 824 808 991 872 938 966 957 N/A Import of investment goods 2,968 3,292 3,660 830 796 941 845 892 858 1,066 1,016 1,020 223 263 299 315 327 261 267 317 263 305 324 276 274 308 345 364 357 356 305 355 315 367 338 347 N/A Intermediate goods 13,803 13,792 16,185 3,542 3,361 3,559 3,959 4,021 3,943 4,262 4,314 4,556 1,000 1,231 1,165 1,280 1,113 1,272 1,237 1,451 1,220 1,399 1,403 1,327 1,231 1,385 1,439 1,525 1,298 1,383 1,380 1,551 1,399 1,600 1,557 1,534 N/A Consumer goods 6,534 7,028 7,761 1,756 1,734 1,843 1,897 1,968 1,919 1,977 2,071 2,116 551 636 619 650 574 559 613 724 617 706 646 634 599 687 683 701 593 641 673 757 689 725 703 716 N/A Sources: BS, SURS, Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund, Monetary indicators and interest rates 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2017 2018 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BoS on central government 2,327 4,618 6,247 3,378 3,631 3,861 4,012 4,219 4,390 4,432 4,618 4,621 4,770 4,823 4,937 5,041 5,173 5,297 5,485 5,600 5,781 6,041 6,247 6,290 6,273 6,471 6,524 6,600 6,791 6,915 7,042 7,041 Central government (S.1311) 7,112 6,273 5,170 6,853 6,813 6,861 6,850 6,872 6,769 6,391 6,273 6,350 6,246 6,029 5,856 5,784 5,699 5,524 5,489 5,491 5,136 5,114 5,170 5,154 5,099 4,927 4,859 4,904 4,912 4,870 4,877 4,831 Other government (S.1312,1313,1314) 622 576 571 594 591 589 587 571 564 561 576 591 587 588 588 581 573 572 563 559 556 550 571 576 571 563 568 565 564 560 562 554 Households (S.14, 15) 8,856 9,154 9,733 8,891 8,920 8,892 8,930 8,974 9,041 9,075 9,154 9,174 9,208 9,305 9,352 9,413 9,447 9,476 9,541 9,604 9,660 9,699 9,733 9,765 9,778 9,860 9,905 9,996 10,033 10,075 10,161 10,231 Non-financial corporations (S.11) 10,502 9,664 9,644 9,870 9,771 9,706 9,520 9,455 9,485 9,473 9,664 9,759 9,814 9,720 9,790 9,745 9,800 9,824 9,828 9,816 9,780 9,716 9,644 9,682 9,687 9,598 9,628 9,582 9,627 9,648 9,647 9,647 Non-monetary financial institutions (S.123, 124, 125) 1,432 1,411 1,566 1,332 1,298 1,298 1,283 1,310 1,352 1,376 1,408 1,382 1,397 1,222 1,222 1,248 1,254 1,247 1,241 1,545 1,558 1,548 1,566 1,627 1,621 1,528 1,547 1,616 1,611 1,605 1,592 1,593 Monetary financial institutions (S.121, 122) 3,206 3,541 3,886 3,572 3,240 3,578 3,625 3,610 3,642 4,100 3,541 3,555 3,573 4,212 3,910 3,860 3,550 3,635 3,625 3,440 3,705 3,824 3,886 3,682 3,798 3,884 3,955 3,800 3,954 4,269 4,186 4,060 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 23,816 23,969 25,496 23,552 23,026 23,272 23,149 23,172 23,314 23,796 23,969 24,066 24,020 24,759 24,613 24,492 24,313 24,338 24,377 24,478 24,840 24,940 25,496 25,363 25,448 25,461 25,580 25,444 25,584 25,959 26,051 25,973 In foreign currency 824 672 528 751 759 743 717 714 711 714 672 683 670 656 642 630 624 597 596 571 567 554 528 545 535 529 498 518 533 489 491 485 Securities, total 7,059 5,889 4,450 6,735 6,777 6,836 6,848 6,823 6,743 6,379 5,885 5,968 6,038 5,562 5,366 5,412 5,291 5,254 5,224 5,308 4,887 4,858 4,450 4,487 4,474 4,266 4,266 4,399 4,481 4,477 4,381 4,356 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 25,885 26,497 28,021 25,697 25,364 25,725 25,643 25,612 25,811 25,976 26,497 26,421 26,508 27,165 27,190 27,177 27,037 27,148 27,289 27,403 27,541 27,770 28,021 28,115 28,191 28,201 28,253 28,453 28,499 28,888 28,940 28,943 Overnight 12,717 15,081 17,331 13,668 13,819 14,274 14,475 14,365 14,505 14,839 15,081 15,253 15,487 15,776 15,858 16,019 16,021 16,377 16,515 16,792 16,825 17,075 17,331 17,476 17,601 17,727 17,889 18,084 18,260 18,664 18,752 18,740 With agreed maturity – short-term 4,481 3,955 3,398 3,942 3,777 3,697 3,507 3,571 3,584 3,442 3,955 3,706 3,707 3,706 3,651 3,472 3,426 3,261 3,292 3,290 3,303 3,257 3,398 3,294 3,287 3,260 3,232 3,184 3,160 3,147 3,214 3,280 With agreed maturity – long-term 8,196 6,829 6,734 7,390 7,110 7,077 7,040 7,047 7,084 7,041 6,829 6,730 6,667 7,026 6,976 6,969 6,901 6,821 6,763 6,661 6,708 6,718 6,734 6,679 6,664 6,566 6,550 6,497 6,419 6,414 6,349 6,275 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 491 632 558 697 658 677 621 629 638 654 632 732 647 657 705 717 689 689 719 660 705 720 558 666 639 648 582 688 660 663 625 648 Deposits in foreign currency, total 655 687 636 684 708 683 686 705 680 705 687 711 695 705 682 684 699 699 694 656 658 664 636 638 641 660 665 690 670 661 636 657 Overnight 508 564 547 553 561 540 550 565 549 567 564 586 567 582 561 557 582 582 573 551 542 549 547 542 540 552 573 585 568 585 562 583 With agreed maturity – short-term 80 65 45 70 86 82 75 81 72 78 65 69 72 69 68 74 67 69 74 58 69 69 45 53 58 66 49 61 61 36 34 34 With agreed maturity – long-term 67 58 44 61 61 61 61 59 59 60 58 56 56 54 53 53 50 48 47 47 47 46 44 43 43 42 43 44 41 40 40 40 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 0.37 0.21 0.13 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.19 0.18 0.11 0.15 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.16 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 3.54 2.66 2.63 2.57 2.54 2.62 2.45 2.53 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.55 2.63 2.60 2.66 2.53 2.63 2.72 2.72 2.68 2.64 2.51 2.65 2.6 2.57 2.56 2.58 2.63 2.65 2.79 2.62 2.69 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 2.46 2.07 1.53 3.84 2.16 .. .. .. 1.60 2.74 1.06 1.31 1.06 3.28 2.99 1.60 1.17 0.75 .. 1.15 1.56 0.8 1.15 1.06 1.78 2.02 2.53 1.68 4.27 0.85 1.36 4.59 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, v % Main refinancing operations 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates -0.019 -0.264 -0.329 -0.257 -0.268 -0.295 -0.298 -0.302 -0.309 -0.313 -0.316 -0.326 -0.329 -0.329 -0.330 -0.330 -0.330 -0.330 -0.329 -0.329 -0.330 -0.329 -0.328 -0.329 -0.329 -0.328 -0.329 -0.325 -0.322 -0.321 -0.319 -0.319 6-month rates 0.054 -0.164 -0.260 -0.145 -0.162 -0.188 -0.189 -0.199 -0.207 -0.215 -0.218 -0.236 -0.241 -0.241 -0.246 -0.251 -0.267 -0.273 -0.272 -0.273 -0.274 -0.274 -0.271 -0.274 -0.275 -0.271 -0.270 -0.270 -0.269 -0.269 -0.267 -0.268 LIBOR 3-month rates -0.755 -0.747 -0.732 -0.734 -0.763 -0.766 -0.743 -0.741 -0.730 -0.738 -0.738 -0.728 -0.726 -0.727 -0.731 -0.729 -0.730 -0.728 -0.726 -0.726 -0.726 -0.745 -0.755 -0.740 -0.745 -0.740 -0.733 -0.726 -0.732 -0.725 -0.726 -0.731 6-month rates -0.688 -0.671 -0.658 -0.646 -0.676 -0.688 -0.658 -0.647 -0.647 -0.663 -0.669 -0.662 -0.666 -0.667 -0.669 -0.661 -0.663 -0.651 -0.651 -0.650 -0.649 -0.653 -0.653 -0.644 -0.662 -0.657 -0.650 -0.647 -0.645 -0.647 -0.649 -0.652 Sources: BoS, EUROSTAT. Public finance 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EUR m TOTAL REVENUES 15,714.1 15,842.2 16,803.3 3,884.6 4,162.9 3,958.5 4,445.0 4,026.9 4,372.9 4,170.7 4,712.5 4,607.8 1,354.5 1,306.7 1,501.7 1,444.8 1,190.4 1,323.3 1,532.6 1,451.8 1,460.6 1,284.0 1,345.2 1,397.7 1,443.3 1,404.1 1,525.5 1,465.5 1,322.9 1,382.4 1,717.2 1,418.4 1,576.9 1,461.6 1,682.9 1,463.3 Current revenues 14,702.6 15,203.9 16,251.4 3,802.7 3,940.7 3,799.1 4,312.2 3,927.5 4,212.6 3,994.8 4,525.8 4,252.5 1,312.4 1,287.7 1,340.6 1,428.7 1,148.4 1,221.9 1,460.7 1,427.7 1,423.8 1,269.7 1,336.2 1,321.6 1,426.3 1,356.0 1,430.3 1,431.0 1,302.2 1,261.7 1,582.6 1,391.2 1,552.0 1,390.2 1,471.5 1,390.7 Tax revenues 13,746.4 14,240.5 15,162.0 3,516.4 3,720.1 3,581.5 3,910.7 3,678.7 3,991.2 3,782.0 4,230.9 3,914.8 1,246.3 1,213.6 1,260.2 1,330.4 1,093.1 1,158.0 1,344.2 1,230.6 1,335.9 1,181.9 1,257.2 1,239.6 1,351.5 1,287.2 1,352.5 1,376.0 1,245.0 1,161.1 1,515.1 1,275.0 1,440.8 1,237.8 1,367.4 1,309.6 Taxes on income and profit 2,584.6 2,680.8 2,967.0 542.4 692.8 669.3 944.3 582.5 770.8 785.5 990.7 651.8 210.2 222.5 260.1 217.0 228.4 223.8 330.5 273.5 340.3 102.0 253.1 227.4 251.4 244.9 274.5 263.2 252.9 269.4 347.6 284.7 358.4 115.2 279.3 257.3 Social security contributions 5,473.9 5,720.6 6,092.1 1,424.2 1,477.8 1,472.6 1,510.8 1,510.5 1,598.2 1,592.8 1,619.6 1,622.4 464.8 475.0 538.0 496.7 484.3 491.7 508.2 499.0 503.6 497.1 501.7 511.6 509.4 514.6 574.1 542.8 507.7 542.3 543.5 537.1 539.0 541.0 537.8 543.6 Taxes on payroll and workforce 19.7 19.8 21.3 4.8 5.2 5.0 5.4 4.9 6.1 5.0 5.6 5.0 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.6 Taxes on property 237.8 256.2 274.2 104.5 78.2 27.4 70.9 100.1 75.9 28.1 65.0 106.7 27.4 34.1 16.7 11.0 7.5 8.8 15.1 23.8 31.9 25.2 44.1 30.8 38.2 22.3 15.4 12.2 7.6 8.3 18.2 16.8 29.9 33.1 38.3 35.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,347.1 5,432.9 5,722.8 1,430.5 1,403.4 1,326.7 1,411.3 1,463.5 1,521.3 1,336.8 1,519.5 1,500.6 482.9 471.7 448.8 534.2 415.0 377.6 512.6 440.6 458.2 523.5 477.7 462.3 531.3 516.1 473.9 516.9 457.1 362.8 590.1 418.9 510.4 533.5 518.1 449.0 Taxes on international trade & transactions 82.5 81.9 83.3 20.8 19.0 21.4 20.4 21.7 19.9 22.6 21.4 22.7 6.7 6.1 6.3 6.1 7.2 8.1 6.4 6.2 7.7 7.0 7.1 7.6 7.5 6.3 6.1 6.7 9.6 6.4 8.3 5.5 7.5 7.5 8.1 7.1 Other taxes 0.6 48.2 1.3 -10.8 43.6 59.1 -52.4 -4.4 -1.0 11.2 9.3 5.6 53.1 2.3 -11.7 63.5 -50.8 46.4 -30.6 -14.2 -7.6 25.3 -28.0 -1.8 11.8 -18.9 6.2 32.3 8.6 -29.7 5.5 10.1 -6.3 5.5 -15.7 15.7 Non-tax revenues 956.2 963.4 1,089.4 286.3 220.6 217.6 401.5 248.8 221.4 212.8 294.9 337.6 66.1 74.2 80.4 98.3 55.3 63.9 116.5 197.1 87.8 87.8 79.0 82.0 74.8 68.8 77.8 55.0 57.2 100.6 67.5 116.2 111.3 152.4 104.1 81.1 Capital revenues 96.3 96.2 91.2 21.2 42.8 16.5 24.3 17.4 33.0 28.6 37.3 43.8 5.6 9.8 27.4 5.4 4.4 6.7 6.2 7.3 10.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 7.8 11.0 14.1 7.7 11.1 9.7 10.3 9.4 17.6 17.6 8.8 17.4 Grants 12.2 10.4 9.5 5.7 1.6 0.7 1.3 6.0 1.5 0.2 1.5 6.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.2 4.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 4.9 Transferred revenues 20.6 51.1 52.3 50.0 0.3 0.1 1.1 50.0 1.1 0.4 0.5 51.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 50.1 1.1 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 882.4 480.5 399.0 5.0 177.4 142.2 106.1 25.9 124.8 146.7 147.5 253.6 36.1 8.2 133.1 10.5 37.4 94.3 65.2 16.1 24.9 8.4 2.0 15.5 7.7 36.6 80.6 27.5 9.2 110.0 123.8 17.2 6.5 2.5 201.0 50.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, EUR m TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,956.4 16,496.7 17,102.0 3,985.6 4,405.9 4,333.3 3,931.9 4,115.7 4,721.1 4,336.9 4,282.8 4,388.2 1,367.6 1,391.0 1,647.3 1,451.7 1,310.4 1,571.3 1,242.0 1,328.3 1,361.5 1,463.9 1,328.2 1,323.6 1,359.6 1,588.2 1,773.3 1,412.3 1,418.1 1,506.5 1,448.8 1,379.5 1,454.5 1,554.8 1,454.7 1,378.7 Current expenditures 7,168.4 7,407.1 7,733.0 1,733.2 1,921.7 2,064.5 1,782.9 1,782.3 2,103.4 2,027.6 1,918.8 1,877.3 631.4 617.1 673.1 648.7 594.7 821.1 562.5 589.6 630.8 581.6 602.7 598.0 586.0 772.6 744.8 651.6 613.8 762.2 678.2 587.1 653.5 638.5 646.6 592.3 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,610.2 3,785.4 3,938.1 928.6 960.8 955.4 1,017.6 956.5 1,008.5 977.7 1,088.0 1,013.9 315.6 321.6 323.6 315.6 315.2 324.5 311.1 317.3 389.2 322.1 320.7 313.8 332.1 327.6 348.9 320.2 328.6 329.0 325.2 335.2 427.6 340.4 342.9 330.7 Expenditures on goods and services 2,311.2 2,371.4 2,626.6 569.3 714.0 563.5 590.9 586.2 886.0 554.6 645.3 643.7 179.7 210.2 324.1 178.4 173.0 212.2 170.2 197.3 223.4 203.4 205.8 176.9 209.3 350.4 326.3 176.9 179.4 198.3 220.2 217.7 207.5 243.7 218.4 181.7 Interest payments 1,042.6 1,074.2 985.3 206.1 197.1 518.4 144.2 206.5 116.2 462.5 145.7 190.3 122.9 69.7 4.5 149.4 96.0 273.0 71.4 66.9 5.8 44.9 66.4 95.3 33.5 77.7 4.9 147.5 94.0 221.0 118.7 21.6 5.4 44.9 75.2 70.2 Reserves 204.4 176.1 183.0 29.2 49.8 27.1 30.2 33.0 92.7 32.7 39.7 29.4 13.2 15.7 20.9 5.3 10.5 11.4 9.8 8.1 12.4 11.2 9.8 12.0 11.1 16.9 64.6 7.0 11.8 13.9 14.1 12.6 13.0 9.5 10.1 9.7 Current transfers 7,540.1 7,700.0 7,912.9 1,918.5 1,911.5 2,039.2 1,882.0 2,001.8 1,989.8 2,034.5 2,027.4 2,071.3 603.0 632.3 676.2 724.5 635.7 679.0 599.8 642.1 640.1 772.2 616.0 613.6 623.5 661.0 705.3 683.3 706.8 644.4 680.0 681.5 665.9 776.0 654.0 641.4 Subsidies 399.0 397.0 425.4 42.9 89.2 170.4 67.1 79.8 108.2 160.0 104.0 52.7 18.5 27.8 42.8 91.1 62.3 17.0 20.5 24.4 22.2 43.3 16.3 20.2 20.6 45.1 42.4 73.5 76.7 9.9 39.3 37.4 27.2 13.9 15.4 23.4 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,370.8 6,495.5 6,665.1 1,678.9 1,592.8 1,644.1 1,652.2 1,718.8 1,650.0 1,678.4 1,715.1 1,812.1 523.7 528.2 540.9 541.5 542.5 560.1 546.8 552.8 552.6 659.8 528.9 530.2 538.0 540.2 571.8 551.7 561.9 564.7 573.6 573.7 567.7 688.6 564.8 558.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 713.8 727.8 748.0 186.8 194.2 210.3 146.7 184.6 206.5 174.8 192.4 193.4 55.8 62.5 75.9 86.5 27.9 95.8 23.8 62.8 60.2 62.2 63.3 59.0 63.9 61.6 80.9 51.6 62.5 60.8 59.4 65.7 67.3 67.9 68.2 57.2 Current transfers abroad 56.5 79.7 74.3 9.8 35.3 14.4 16.0 18.7 25.2 21.3 16.0 13.1 5.0 13.7 16.6 5.5 3.0 6.0 8.8 2.1 5.1 6.9 7.5 4.2 0.9 14.1 10.2 6.5 5.7 9.0 7.6 4.7 3.7 5.6 5.5 2.1 Capital expenditures 1,520.0 784.3 891.0 213.6 356.6 109.0 145.4 208.1 428.5 111.2 197.5 292.4 68.5 86.2 201.9 35.7 37.1 36.1 39.4 52.5 53.4 67.8 77.9 62.4 87.2 103.8 237.5 30.4 34.2 46.6 47.6 64.0 85.9 94.5 106.2 91.7 Capital transfers 295.0 177.8 186.6 23.7 94.4 22.7 23.1 37.0 103.8 29.9 54.8 42.3 30.2 20.9 43.2 10.0 5.6 7.1 7.2 10.8 5.1 8.9 9.9 18.3 30.6 19.1 54.1 8.4 7.0 14.5 10.2 19.4 25.3 13.1 12.9 16.4 Payments to the EU budget 432.9 427.4 378.5 96.6 121.7 98.0 98.4 86.5 95.6 133.8 84.4 104.8 34.4 34.4 52.9 32.8 37.2 28.0 33.0 33.4 32.1 33.5 21.7 31.3 32.2 31.8 31.6 38.6 56.4 38.7 32.9 27.5 23.9 32.8 35.1 37.0 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,242.3 -654.5 -298.7 -101.0 -243.0 -374.8 513.1 -88.8 -348.2 -166.1 429.8 219.6 -13.1 -84.3 -145.6 -6.9 -119.9 -248.0 290.6 123.5 99.1 -179.9 17.0 74.1 83.7 -184.1 -247.8 53.2 -95.2 -124.1 268.3 39.0 122.5 -93.2 228.2 84.6 Source: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, APP – Asset Purchase Programme, BAMC – Bank Asset Management Company, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – consumer price index, DV – Value added, EBA – European Banking Authority, EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FED – Federal Reserve System, GD – Companies, HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IC – Interest Coverage, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IEA – International Energy Agency, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD – International Institute for Management Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, KIS – Agricultural institute of Slovenia, MF – Ministry of Finance, MGRT – Ministry of Economic Developement and Technology, MSP – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, MZI – Ministry of Infrastructure, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PDII – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SITC – Standard International Trade Classification, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SMA – Securities Market Agency, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA – Treasury Single Account, UL – Official Gazette, ULC – Unit Labour Costs, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 – Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 – Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 – Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30 – Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D – Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E – Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AU-Australia, AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CA-Canada, CH-Switzerland, CL-Chile, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, HR-Croatia, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IS-Iceland, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, KR-South Korea, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, MX-Mexico, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. slovenian economic mirror No. 6, Vol. XXIV, 2018 slovenian economic mirror No. 6, Vol. XXIV, 2018