Metodološkizvezki,Vol. 14,No. 2,2017,19–48 ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatchinEducation andSkills: Empiricalevidence RosaliaCastellano GennaroPunzo 1 AntonellaRocca Abstract Ph.D.educationisakeyelementininnovationandthegenerationofnewknowl- edge. Nevertheless, in Italy, the share of doctoral graduates is still lower than the average for OECD member countries. This paper investigates the effectiveness of doctoraleducationandtheextenttowhichtheItalianlabourmarketproperlyabsorbs therisingflowofPh.D.holders. Theeffectivenessisassessedfromthetwofoldper- spectiveoftheformalrelevanceofaPh.D.qualificationinthelabourmarketandthe substantialapplicabilityofskillsacquiredtodifferentoccupationsinsideandoutside university. Logit models enable sketches of the main determinants of overeducation and overskilling among Italian Ph.D.’s, whereas log-earnings equations allow as- sessmentoftheroleofeducationalandskillsmismatchesintermsofwagepenalties. Oaxaca-Blinderdecompositionshelpanalysesomecausesofthesemismatches. The different patterns of overeducation and overskilling among Ph.D. holders working insideandoutsideacademeleadtodifferentdegreesofpaypenalties. 1 Introduction In recent years, the increasing expansion of higher education in Europe (OECD, 2013) has included doctoral education and training (Auriol, 2010). The importance of Ph.D. education - defined as the third stage of higher education by the Bologna Process (1999) - has become more explicit in the EU agenda thanks to the role of such education in contributingtolong-rungrowthandinnovationinaknowledge-basedeconomy(Brinkley, 2006;Leadbeater,1999;Fumasolietal.,2015). Inaddition,becausetheyarespecifically trainedincertainfieldsofknowledge,doctorateholdersareorientedtocarryoutscientific researchthatmaycontributetosocialandeconomicdevelopment(Bitusikova,2010). Although universities traditionally offer doctoral education, other public and private research-oriented institutions and professional organisations are currently offering Ph.D. programmes with the aim of establishing a European Higher Education Area (EHEA), as called for by the ministers of education and university leaders of 29 countries in the Bologna Process. In the Bologna Seminar titled “Doctoral Programmes for the Euro- peanKnowledgeSociety”(Salzburg,3-5February2005),Europeanministersemphasised the importance of research and interdisciplinarity in enhancing the competitiveness of higher education across EU countries. The 2010 Vienna Declaration officially launched 1 Department of Economic and Legal Studies, University of Naples “Parthenope”, Naples, Italy; gen- naro.punzo@uniparthenope.it 20 Castellanoetal. the EHEA, expressing the need for a worldwide dialogue to explore the role of higher education from a global perspective. In this context, for some years, many governments have been supporting doctorate courses to increase the supply and enrolment of students on the one hand and the performance of such programmes on the other hand. Their spe- cific aim is to attract international talent and to encourage the creation of knowledge in accordance with the principles of internationality, interdisciplinarity and intersectorality (European Commission, 2010). Other specific reforms are intended to widen Ph.D. stu- dents’ skills and abilities and to favour their transition into the private sector, where they act as agents of creativity and innovation for the benefit of the global society (LERU, 2007). Many strategies have been inspired by the need for doctorate holders to increase their so-called soft skills (e.g., problem solving, interpersonal and leadership skills, and criticalreasoning),whichenablethemtomakeadifferenceintheworkplacebyimproving theircapacityformanagement,teamwork,projectingandfundraising. Inthenearfuture, in Italy, other reforms will aim to valorise the role of Ph.D. holders in the labour market and to increase actual career opportunities at the highest levels of public administration. In addition, in line with the objective of doctoral degree enhancement, recent school re- formshaverecognisedtheadvantagesforPh.D.holdersintheevaluationofrequirements forteachinginhighschools,forresearchgrantsandfornationalscientificaccreditation. The upward trend of doctorate courses and programmes concerns the majority of OECD(OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)countries. However, although employment opportunities and earnings usually increase with education level (Rehme, 2007; Andersen and wan de Werfhorst, 2010; Castellano and Punzo, 2016), Ph.D. holders are more likely to experience occupational mismatches. The insufficient “absorptive capacity” of the national productive structure (Di Paolo and Mañé, 2013) may mean that the increasing supply of Ph.D. holders is not completely absorbed by the simultaneouscreationofacademicandresearch-orientedjobsorthattheyaremismatched in the labour market (Garcia-Aracil and Van der Velden, 2008; Hakala, 2009; Auriol et al., 2013). Ph.D. holders may be mismatched in the labour market in two respects - ed- ucation and skills - that, although related, have different analysis and policy implications (Desjardins and Rubenson, 2011). In fact, as argued by the OECD (2013), “more educa- tion does not automatically translate into better skills”, which is why a joint analysis of educationandskills attheindividual level isareliable approachtoprovidea bettercom- prehensiveunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweeneducationandskillsmismatchesin thelabourmarket. This paper addresses the outcomes of the doctoral process in Italy, their impact on graduate careers and the adequacy of the competencies developed. It assesses the extent towhichtheItalianlabourmarketproperlyabsorbstherisingflowofPh.D.’sandhowef- fectivelythesedegreeholdersrepresentkeyelementsforinnovationandthegenerationof new knowledge in the economy. More precisely, our research hypothesis aims to investi- gatetheeffectivenessofthedoctoraltrainingprocessfromthetwofoldperspectiveofthe formalrelevanceofthePh.D.qualificationinthelabourmarketandthesubstantialappli- cabilityofskillsacquiredfordifferentoccupationsinsideandoutsideacademe. Sincethe doctoraldegreeisthehighestlevelofformaleducationinItaly-itisrankedastheeighth level in the new International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED-2011) - this paper focuses uniquely on upward mismatches in the labour market. It sketches a profile ofPh.D.holdersatriskofovereducationandoverskillingbyexaminingtheirmaindeter- ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 21 minantsandtheamountbywhichrewardsarelowerforeducationallymismatchedwork- ersthanfortheirmatchedpeers. Differencesintheprobabilityofexperiencingmismatch ineducationandskillsaredecomposedinto(i)theendowmenteffect,whichcapturesthe share due to differences in employee characteristics, and (ii) the return effect, which is related to the ability of the national system (education vs. labour market) to transform these characteristics into skills and to reward workers differently for the same individual endowments. Finally, the decomposition of the wage gap by groups of doctorate holders allowsustoevaluatethecontributionofeachfactortowagepenalties. This paper is organised as follows. Section 2 describes the conceptual framework of overeducationandoverskillinginlightofthemaintheoreticalconstructsthathelpexplain occupational mismatches. Section 3 analyses the upward trend of Ph.D. education in the Italian educational system. Section 4 addresses the data and some descriptive statistics on well-matched/mismatched Ph.D. holders, whereas Section 5 shows the methodology and the groups of covariates tested. Section 6 discusses the main results, and Section 7 concludes. 2 OccupationalMismatchesbetweenOvereducationand Overskilling Inrecentyears,thegrowingdifficultyinmanagingthetransitionfromuniversitytowork has stimulated an extensive literature on occupational mismatches, especially in terms of overeducation and overskilling. After a doctoral degree is completed, overeducation occurs if this high level of qualification exceeds the requirements to obtain a certain job (Sicherman,1991;Battuetal.,1999;DoltonandVignoles,2000;McGuinnesandBennet, 2007;Bárcena-Martínetal.,2011). Overskillingoccurswhenthecompetenciesacquired duringthedoctoralprogrammeareuselessinperformingthejob(DoltonandSilles,2008; McGuinnesandSloane,2011;GreenandZhu,2010;Mavromarasetal.,2013). Inpartic- ular,iftheskilllevelsofovereducatedworkersarelinkedtojobsatisfaction,thegenuinely overeducated, who are actually dissatisfied with their occupation, may be distinguished fromthosewhoareapparentlymerelyovereducated(Chevalier,2003). Researchershavealsotriedtoinvestigatethepotentialrelationshipsbetweenoveredu- cationandoverskilling. McGuinnessandBennett(2007),forexample,studiedtheextent towhichtheincidenceandimpactofovereducationarespecifictoindividualsofparticu- larabilitylevels,andAllenandVelden(2001)examinedtherelationbetweeneducational and skill mismatches with different effects on wages and other labour market outcomes andconcludedthatskillmismatchesaremuchbetterpredictorsofjobsatisfactionandjob searchesthaneducationalmismatches. However, both dimensions of job mismatch are rarely assessed as regards in terms of doctoral education, which remains an under-researched area compared to undergraduate education. In other words, while increasing attention is being devoted to the matching of education(andskills)levelwiththejobperformedforworkerswithagraduateandunder- graduate education, such matching is only marginally assessed for postgraduate workers (i.e.,master’sdegreeandPh.D.holders). AsdiscussedbyCaroleoandPastore(2017),humancapitaltheory(LeuvenandOost- 22 Castellanoetal. erbeek, 2011) and the job competition model (Thurow, 1979) are the main constructs that help explain overeducation. The first approach holds that overeducation is a signal of a lack of the work-related component rather than a waste of human capital. The sec- ond model considers excess schooling a consequence of the competition for jobs in the presence of the rigidity of the demand for highly educated labour that leads graduates to accumulateeducation. Theassignmenttheory(Sattinger,1993),whichattemptstorecon- cilethetwomodels,holdsthatovereducationarisesbecausewagesarenotentirelyrelated to acquired schooling and other personal characteristics (as in the human capital model) ortothenatureofthejob(asinthejobcompetitionmodel). Pioneering studiesof overeducation andoverskilling primarily consideredthe United States (Freeman, 1976). Subsequent analyses also covered some European countries (Alba-Ramirez, 1993; Dolton and Vignoles, 2000; Büchel et al., 2003; McGuinness, 2003; 2006; McGuinness and Bennett, 2007; Quintini, 2011; Aleksynska and Tritah, 2013; Verhaest and van der Velden, 2013) and other OECD countries (Manacorda and Petrongolo,2000;McGowanandAndrews,2015). Muchoftheresearchexploredthede- terminants of overeducation from a cross-country perspective with many difficulties due to the lack of comparative data (Leuven and Oosterbeek, 2011; Mavromaras et al., 2013; Sgobbi and Suleman, 2013). Some studies also assessed the impact of a large range of individual characteristics on the “effectiveness of the university degree” in providing a job that matches the individual education and skill levels (Franzini and Raitano, 2012; Cutillo and Di Pietro, 2006). In particular, Manacorda and Petrongolo (2000) showed higherovereducationintheEUthanintheUSA,withamoredramaticscenarioinsouth- ern Europe, especially in Italy, where there has also been extensive growth in the human capital supply (Cainarca and Sgobbi, 2009). McGowan and Andrews (2015) found that differences in skill mismatch across OECD countries are related to differences in pub- lic policies. Much research has also focused on penalties in earnings and employment prospects (Allen and Velden, 2001; Sloane, 2003; Brynin and Longhi, 2009; Leuven and Oosterbeek, 2011; Franzini and Raitano, 2012). These studies demonstrated that a large shareofearningdifferentialsdependsonthemismatchbetweenindividualskillleveland jobrequirements(McGuinness,2003)andthatthewagepenaltyforoverskillingislower than that for overeducation (McGuinness and Sloane, 2011). Neumann et al. (2009) found that earnings are associated with the quality of an employer-employee job match andthatbetter-matchedworkersareusuallymoreproductiveandreceivehigherearnings. Nordin et al. (2010), who examined the income penalty for education-occupation mis- matches for high-educated workers in Sweden, revealed that for mismatched men, the penaltyisapproximatelytwiceaslargeasfortheirUScounterparts,whereasforwomen, itisapproximatelythesameasfortheirUSpeers. Basedonthefindingsofotherscholars (Dolado et al., 2002; Ortiz, 2010), overeducated and/or overskilled workers are affected bywagepenaltiesbecausetheydonotreachthewageleveltypicallyassociatedwiththeir qualification, with inevitable consequences related to productivity, job satisfaction and psychologicalstrain. Moregenerally,theunderutilisationofhumancapital(Feldmanand Turnley,1995;Feldman,1996)andinefficiencyofpublicexpenditureoneducation(Groot and Massen van den Brink, 2000; McGuinness, 2006) may cause a waste of resources in thesocietyasawhole. Doctoral education is still an under-researched area compared to undergraduate ed- ucation, and issues related to the overeducation and overskilling of Ph.D. holders have ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 23 rarelybeenassessed. Oneofthemainnovelelementsofthisworkisthatitlinksresearch on the forces driving occupational mismatches of Ph.D. recipients to the decomposition oftheprobabilityofbeingovereducatedratherthanoverskilledaswellasthecontribution ofeachcovariatetothewagegapforspecificgroupsofdoctorateholders. 3 The Upward Trend of Ph.D.’s and their Role in the LabourMarket AsdocumentedbyEurostat(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat),in2004,morethan525000stu- dentswereattendingaPh.D.courseinEU-25(approximately1.15per1000inhabitants), accounting for just 3.3% of tertiary students. In the same year, more than 93,000 Ph.D. students (0.21 per 1000 inhabitants) received their doctoral degree, twice as many as in theUnitedStatesandsixtimesmorethaninJapan. Inabroaderinternationalcontext,itis worthstressingtheconstantdevelopmentofhighereducationandresearchsystemsacross OECDcountries,wherethenumberofadvancedresearchqualificationshasincreasedby 56% over the period 2000–2012. However, doctorate programmes still represent a small share of all tertiary programmes, even though on average across OECD countries, 1.6% ofyoungpeoplein2012wereexpectedtoattainthePh.D.degreeovertheirlifetime,com- pared to only 1% in 2000 (OECD, 2014) and 1.5% in 2009. In addition to Switzerland (extra-EU),Sweden,Portugal,FinlandandGermanyshowedthehighestgraduationrates at the doctoral level in 2009 with more than 2.5% of Ph.D. holders, whereas Italy is still below the OECD average (1.6%) but in line with the EU-27 average. The expansion of doctorates from 2000 to 2012 is due partially to the increasing presence of women, who wereawardedonaveragealmosthalf(46%)oftheOECD’snewdoctoratedegreesin2009 (Boarini,2009;OECD,2011). However,in2009,womenrepresentedlessthan40%ofto- tal Ph.D. recipients in most OECD countries (OECD, 2013), and in 2012, they were less likely than men to earn an advanced research qualification (OECD, 2014). Italy shows a tendency to buck the prevailing trend with a higher presence of women in doctorate programmes. In the 1980s, the high employment rates (93% on average) for doctorate holders in most OECD countries, even greater than those for all tertiary graduates (81%), pointed to the strong attractiveness of Ph.D. graduates as job market candidates, even in times of economicdownturn (OECD,2013). However, inthe2000s, theoccupational situation of doctoraterecipientshasbeenlessfavourable. Morespecifically,inthe2000s,employment ratesforPh.D.holdersdependonthefieldofstudy(e.g.,higherforPh.D.’sinengineering and social and medical sciences and lower for Ph.D.’s in humanities) and vary consider- ably across career paths (e.g., the uncertainty of having indefinite contracts is higher for Ph.D. graduates than for all employees). Particularly in Portugal but also in Germany and the Netherlands, Ph.D. recipients, especially in humanities, are in precarious and in- formal situations in the labour market with temporary and/or part-time contracts or even short-term positions (e.g., postdoctoral positions), which detract from the attractiveness ofresearchcareers. Nevertheless,over90%ofworkingPh.D.’sareeitherprofessionalsor managers,especiallyintheeducationsector,withsignificantearningsdifferentialsacross OECD countries. However, except for France, whose unemployment rates for Ph.D. re- 24 Castellanoetal. cipients were higher than for graduates at a lower level of education (Harfi and Auriol, 2010), employmentrates for Ph.D.’sare higher(approximately 3 percentagepoints) than forothertertiary-levelgraduates,confirmingthatemploymentprospectsusuallyimprove withahigherlevelofeducation. 4 DataSource: APreliminaryAnalysis Our analysis draws upon the most recent census data (2014) from the Istat Survey on Doctorate Holders’ Vocational Integration; to be useful to scientists and policy makers, it is based on information that is as up-to-date as possible. We performed the analysis on data from the last edition of the survey, which was conducted between February and July 2014 with doctorate recipients who earned their Ph.D. degree in Italy in 2010. The mainobjectiveofthesurveyistodetecttheemploymentconditionsofPh.D.’sfouryears aftergraduation;therefore,2014istheyeartowhichtheinformationrelates 2 . Thesurvey alsocollectsalargesetofdataonthesubjectiveopinionsofPh.D.’sabouttheireducation andlabourmarketexperiences,university-to-worktransitionprocess,familybackground and other personal information. It gains strength by being a total survey — the target population is composed of 11240 Ph.D. holders — in which weights allow correction for bias due to potential nonresponses. The survey adopts a mixed approach (Groot and Massen van den Brink, 2000; Desjardins and Rubenson, 2011; Quintini, 2011) to detect occupational mismatches of Ph.D. holders. An objective approach allows the evaluation of matching in education, and a more subjective approach relies on direct questions pre- sentedtoworkersabouttheirperceptionofmismatchinskills 3 . Among graduates who earned a Ph.D. in 2010 for whom the employment situation was evaluated in 2014, those who are overeducated (anyone whose Ph.D. degree was neither required by law nor useful to the current job) amount to 30.57%. Those who are overskilled (anyone who does not consider the Ph.D. education effectively neces- sary to perform the current job) have a more significant share that is nearly twice that of the overeducated (60.96%). Doctorate holders who are simultaneously overeducated and overskilled are 29.27% of the total. However, the incidence of mismatched workers who enteracareeroutsideuniversityishigherthan thatofmismatchedworkerswhocontinue to work within university: percentages of overeducation are 37.19% outside academe vs. 5.26%inside,whereaspercentagesofoverskillingare73.02%outsidevs. 14.79%inside. This imbalance in mismatches inside and outside academe draws attention to the inabil- ity of the private sector to benefit fully from the high potential of individuals who are specifically trained for research. Only 8.46% of Ph.D.’s are still unemployed four years after graduation, and they are prevalently women (62.81% vs. 37.19% men). More than one-fifth of unemployed Ph.D. recipients (22.96%) are waiting to begin a job or remu- 2 This is the second edition of the census survey on doctorate holders’ vocational integration and also includes Ph.D.’s who earned their doctoral degree in 2008. Istat conducted the first edition of the survey between December 2009 and February 2010 with Ph.D.’s who had graduated in 2004 and 2006, with the aimofdetectingtheiremploymentconditionsthreeandfiveyearsaftergraduation. 3 The questionnaire envisages two kinds of questions to evaluate the presence of overeducation and/or overskilling. They are, respectively, “Was the Ph.D. degree an explicit requirement to access the current job?” and“Inyouropinion,isthePh.D.educationeffectivelynecessarytoperformthecurrentjob?” ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 25 nerated training; more than one-third (34.04%) are still looking for a job and one-tenth (10.91%) are seeking a satisfactory job, whereas 10.52% are unable to work for personal reasons. Theproportionofindividualswhodeclaredtheyhadnotyetfoundasatisfactory jobisratherbalancedbetweengenders,whereasofthosewhocitedpersonalreasonsthat preventedthemfromworking,90of100arewomen. Although overeducation and overskilling are observed exclusively for Ph.D.’s who were employed at the time of the survey, the selection effect arising from this process - due to unobservable individual characteristics that are potentially linked to job search propensity - is not significant; after all, only slightly more than 10% (10.91%) of Ph.D. graduates are unemployed after four years. The different dynamics of overeducation and overskilling that characterise Ph.D. holders’ careers inside and outside university justify their separate treatment. However, in Italy, for most Ph.D. graduates, the professional prospect is the academic career for which the doctorate degree is typically recognised or requiredbylaw. Asillustratedbefore,workingatuniversityproducesagreaterguarantee of equality because of the more standardised job contracts; for example, there is a lower gender-basedpaygap(7.96%)thanforPh.D.graduateswhoworkoutsideacademe(18%) (seeSection6). In general, doctorate holders who begin a professional career outside university earn, onaverage,morethanothers. Overeducationisslightlymorefrequentforwomen(34.29%) than for men (26.72%); in detail, 41.09% of women (vs. 32.96% of men) working out- sideacademeareovereducated,and5.36%ofwomen(vs. 5.15%ofmen)workinginside academeareovereducated. Outsideuniversity,overeducatedmalesearn,onaverage,evenmorethanfemaleswho are well matched in education (Table 1). However, the pay gap — computed as the dif- ference between the mean incomes of overeducated and well-matched Ph.D.’s compared to those who are only well matched — is more severe for men (18.99% vs. 13.85%). Both inside and outside academe, pay differentials are in favour of well-matched Ph.D. holders, meaning that well-matched individuals earn, on average, more than their overe- ducated counterparts irrespective of the geographical area of the country in which they work. In terms of the field of study, well-matched individuals in education who work in academe generally earn more than their peers who work outside it. The only exceptions arethePh.D.’sinhumanitiesandlawwho,evenwhentheyarewellmatchedineducation, earn, on average, less than their colleagues in other disciplines. In brief, overeducated Ph.D.’s show some important differences between their mean incomes that are generally in favour of those who undertake a career outside academe. This evidence is partly in line with the majority of other European countries and the United States, where Ph.D. graduates usually receive higher earnings when they do not work as researchers (Auriol, 2010). The largest wage gap (more than 40 percent) exists among doctorate holders who workinsideacademeinthefieldsofphysical,socialandlifesciences. Incontrast,outside academe,thewagegapsareusuallylessextensiveexceptforPh.D.’sinlaw. It is worth noting that, except for Ph.D.’s in law, overeducation is generally more se- vere for the remuneration of doctorate holders who started an academic profession (e.g., their pay gaps are consistently higher than those of their colleagues who work outside academe). In contrast, overskilling more seriously affects the earnings of Ph.D. hold- ers working outside university in several fields except for physical, social and life sci- 26 Castellanoetal. Table1: MeanincomeofPh.Ds. (overeducatedvs. well-matchedineducation)bytypeofcareer(insideandoutside academe)andbyothermaincharacteristics Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Maincharacteristics Overeducated Well-matched ineducation Gap Overeducated Well-matched ineducation Gap Gender Female 1102 1886 41.57 1418 1646 13.85 Male 1331 2032 34.50 1625 2006 18.99 Geographicalarea North-west 1466 2055 28.66 1591 2007 20.73 North-east 1590 1830 13.11 1549 1861 16.77 Centre 1251 2039 38.65 1523 1844 17.41 South 788 1705 53.78 1434 1594 10.04 Islands 2183 1393 1914 27.22 Fieldofstudy Physicalsciences 1150 2039 43.60 1401 1739 19.44 Lifesciences 1263 2141 41.01 1656 1796 7.80 Engineering 1550 2010 22.89 1583 2014 21.40 Humanities 1686 1833 2356 22.20 EconomicsandStatistics 1700 2132 20.26 1598 1964 18.64 Law 1200 1708 29.74 1177 1814 35.12 Socialsciences 1010 1740 41.95 1228 1451 15.37 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 27 ences (Table 2). Therefore, overskilling is widespread, mainly outside academe, where the shares of the overskilled reach 77.66% (vs. 18.06% inside) for women and 68% (vs. 11.91% inside) for men. Particularly in academic professions, the income penalty is higherformismatchedwomen-overskilled(34.43%vs. 9.05%)orovereducated(41.57% vs. 34.50%). Both inside and outside university, the wage gap due to mismatches in skilling is consistently positive along the entire Italian territory, although it is negligible inthenortheastandevennegativeintheinsularregionsforPh.D.’swithanacademicca- reer. An anomaly is represented by overskilled workers who achieved their Ph.D. degree in the Isles of Italy and are currently pursuing an academic career: they earn approxi- mately50%morethantheirwell-matchedcolleagues. Intermsofthefieldofstudy,professionsoutsideacademerewardwell-matchedPh.D.’s in humanities, economics and statistics, while engineering shows less severe wage gaps between overskilled and well-matched Ph.D.’s. Inside academe, well-matched doctorate holders in social, physical and life sciences have higher rewards than their overskilled colleagues. In the engineering field, mismatched Ph.D.’s who pursue an academic career showanadvantageintermsofwagescomparedwiththeirwell-matchedpeers. The distributions of mean incomes and wage gaps of Ph.D.’s who are simultaneously overeducated and overskilled are not very different from those of Ph.D.’s who are only overeducated. However, in general, differentials in mean incomes between unmatched workersappeartobelargerandtherelativewagegapsmoreseverecomparedtotheirpeers whoareperfectlymatchedinthelabourmarket(Table3). WagedifferentialsacrossItalian macro regions are even more pronounced. In other words, the wage gaps of mismatched workers in both dimensions (education and skill) are consistently higher than those of theircolleagueswhoaremismatchedonlyineducation(Table1)orinskill(Table2). The mostsignificantexceptionsarethePh.D.’swhoholdadoctorateinlaw,whoappeartobe severelypenalisediftheyareonlyovereducated. 5 Methodology Inthefirststep,withtheaimofunderstandingtheleadingdeterminantsunderlyingovere- ducation and overskilling (y i , manifest variables) and the probability that these events occur among Ph.D. graduates (y ∗ i , latent variables) who have been pursuing a career in- side or outside academe, maximum likelihood logit models (Allen, 2000), chosen in the sphere of binary response models, are performed. These models are tested on a set of covariates that are grouped as follows: (i) sociodemographic characteristics (gender, co- habiting, children, age at the date of Ph.D. attainment); (ii) family background (father’s education level, macroarea of residence); (iii) educational path (final grade at university degree, type of secondary school attended); (iv) doctoral characteristics (mobility from regionwherethedegreewasattained,timetoearndoctorate,fieldofstudy);and(v)doc- toral tutorial path (seminars, laboratory activities, schools, experience abroad, teaching). Therefore, y ∗ i = γz i +u i whereγ isthevectorofcoefficientsoftherelatedcovariatesz i andu i istheerrorterms. Inthesecondstep,totesthowovereducationandoverskillingaffectindividualwages, log-earnings functions are tested, also controlling for other factors that are likely to ex- 28 Castellanoetal. Table2: MeanincomeofPh.Ds. (overskilledvs. well-matched)bytypeofcareer(insideandoutsideacademe)andby othermaincharacteristics Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Maincharacteristics Overskilled Well-matched inskills Gap Overskilled Well-matched inskills Gap Gender Female 1274 1943 34.43 1467 1855 20.92 Male 1839 2022 9.05 1810 2067 12.43 Geographicalarea North-west 1415 2056 31.18 1742 2176 19.94 North-east 1788 1828 2.19 1626 2003 18.82 Centre 1351 2074 34.86 1661 1943 14.51 South 1188 1742 31.80 1498 1667 10.14 Islands 3171 2081 −52.38 1542 2156 28.48 Fieldofstudy Physicalsciences 1487 2064 27.96 1535 1847 16.89 Lifesciences 1620 2164 25.14 1649 2046 19.40 Engineering 2121 2000 −6.05 1839 2024 9.14 Humanities 1502 1706 11.96 1966 2825 30.41 EconomicsandStatistics 2121 1688 2146 21.34 Law 1456 1709 14.80 1426 1775 19.66 Socialsciences 1069 1804 40.74 1294 1593 18.77 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 29 Table3: MeanincomeofPh.Ds. (bothovereducatedandoverskilled)bytypeofcareer(insideandoutsideacademe)andfor well-matchedinbotheducationandskillandbyothermaincharacteristics Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Maincharacteristics Overeducated andoverskilled Well-matched ineducation andskills Gap Overeducated andoverskilled Well-matched ineducation andskills Gap Gender Female 1102 1943 43.28 1398 1853 24.55 Male 1203 2206 45.47 1624 2095 22.48 Geographicalarea North-west 1250 2059 39.29 1577 2215 28.80 North-east 1590 1828 13.02 1524 1987 23.30 Centre 1187 2078 42.88 1521 1953 22.12 South 788 1742 54.76 1413 1672 15.49 Islands – 2081 – 1355 2181 37.87 Fieldofstudy Physicalsciences 1150 2064 44.28 1385 1868 25.86 Lifesciences 1186 2176 45.50 1640 2051 20.04 Engineering 1550 2000 22.50 1586 2051 22.67 Humanities – 1706 – 1833 2825 35.12 EconomicsandStatistics – 2132 – 1535 2158 28.87 Law 1200 1709 29.78 1177 1775 33.69 Socialsciences 1010 1804 44.01 1220 1593 23.41 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata 30 Castellanoetal. plain differences in generating income. Indeed, beyond overeducation or, alternatively, overskilling, a semi-log functional form of earnings equation is performed for other con- trol variables, including the same personal background, family background and doctoral characteristicsandthefather’sprofession: lnW i = βX i + i whereW i isthepersonalwage,X i isthecovariatesandβ therelatedcoefficients,and i is theerrorterms. Thecomparisonbetweentheunconditional(wageisexclusivelyregressed on overeducation or overskilling) and conditional models (including all the covariates) showstheroleplayedbythesemismatchesinrelationtowages. Inthethirdstep,toanalyseindepththedeterminantsofdifferentoutcomesonwages andontheprobabilityofovereducation/overskillingforspecificgroupsofdoctorates,the threefold Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) decompositions are performed on both the logit and log- earnings regressions. As argued by Gomulka and Stern (1990), Even and Macpherson (1990), Yun (2004) and Fairlie (1999; 2005), the OB procedure may also be applied to nonlinearregressionmodels. Inparticular,weperformtheextensionoftheOBprocedure developedbyBauerandSinning(2008)tologitmodels. Toexplorehowmuchofthemeanwagegapisaccountedforbydifferencesinthepre- dictors,thewagegapisdecomposedintothreemaineffects(WinsboroughandDickinson, 1971;JonesandKelley,1984;DaymontandAndrisani,1984): Δ j = [E(X j )−E(X k )]β k +E(X k ) 0 (β j −β k )+[E(X j )−E(X k )] 0 (β j −β k ) (5.1) The first component (e.g., the difference in the average for each predictor weighted bytheslopeofthewageearningsequationforthereferencegroupk)representstheshare of wage gap that can be explained because of different average characteristics between two subsets of individuals (e.g., males vs. females; northern vs. southern Italy; hard vs. soft subjects 4 ; overeducated vs. well matched in education; overskilled vs. well matched in skills). This component is called the endowment effect and reflects the more or less favourable endowment of observable characteristics measured by the explanatory vari- ablesforthegroupofreferencecomparedtoeachothergroup. Therefore,theendowment effectmeasureshowmuchdoctorateholdersfromthejthgroupwouldearndifferentlyif theyhadexperiencedthesameeducationprocessasthedoctorateholdersofthegroupof reference. The second component, obtained as difference in the slopes weighted by the average ofcharacteristicsofthegroupofreference,amountstotheproportionofwagegaprelated to different production processes (that is, the transformation of inputs into educational achievement) between the two groups under consideration. This component is called the return effect and reflects more or less efficiency of the group of reference in producing performance compared to each other group. In other words, the return effect measures how much doctorate holders from the jth group would earn differently if they had the sameaveragecharacteristicsasthedoctorateholdersofthereferencegroup. 4 Todistinguishthetypesoffieldofstudyinrelationtotheirquantitativecontent,wegroupedphysical, lifeandengineeringsciencesashardsubjects,andhumanity,social,economicandstatistic,andlawsciences assoftsubjects. ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 31 The third component, the interaction effect, is the residual part of decomposition and captures the leverage produced by both effects occurring simultaneously. Standard er- rorsofindividualcomponentsarecomputedaccordingtoJann(2008),whichextendsthe earliermethoddevelopedinOaxacaandRansom(1998)toaddressstochasticregressors. Regarding probability, Oaxaca and Ransom (1998) proposed a more generalised for- mulation: Δ j = [E(X j )−E(X k )]β ∗ +E(X j ) 0 (β j −β ∗ )+E(X k )(β ∗ −β k ) whereβ ∗ istheweightedaverageofthecoefficientvectorsβ j andβ k : β ∗ = Ωβ j +(1−Ω)β k Ω is the weighting matrix and I is the identity matrix. Therefore, for Ω = 1, the weights usedaregivenbycoefficientsoftheso-calledadvantagedgroup(thegroupcorresponding tolowerprobabilityofbeingmismatched),whereasforΩ = 0,theweightsusedaregiven bycoefficientsofthedisadvantagedgroup(thegroupwithhigherprobability). Following thisapproach,theOBdecompositionrepresentsaspecialcaseofthisgeneralisedequation in which Ω is the null or the identity matrix so that it assumes the general simplified formulationexpressedin(5.1). 6 MainResults Beforediscussingthemainresultsofouranalysis,itisnecessarytoreflectupontheissue ofpotentialendogeneitythatmayoccur,especiallyinthecaseoflog-earningsequations. For this reason, we have also controlled for exogeneity that is the orthogonality of the regressorsandthedisturbancetermsofthemodels. Theverificationofthisassumptionis required because in the presence of endogeneity, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) leadstobiasedandinconsistentparameters(NakamuraandNakamura,1981). To validate that the OLS model corresponds to our data, the Durbin-Hausman-Wu (DHW) test, which evaluates the consistency of an estimator (OLS) when compared to a less efficient estimator that is already known to be consistent, was conducted (Green, 2012). Inparticular,theDHWtest,whichcanbeusedtocheckfortheendogeneityofone ormorecovariates,comparesinstrumentalvariableestimatestoOLSestimatesanddeter- mines whether the errors are correlated (endogenous) or not correlated (not endogenous) withtheregressors. Thenullhypothesisisthattheyarenot,andinthiscase,thepreferred modelisOLS.Withap-valueof0.1253,theDHWtestisnotstatisticallysignificant,and the hypothesis that regressors are uncorrelated with the disturbance terms cannot be re- jected. Therefore, the OLS models may be considered efficient and consistent. We have also controlled for all the correlations between each regressor with error terms, and the correspondingassociationindexesareconsistentlybelow0.05. Table 4 shows the results of the logit models, estimated separately for Ph.D. holders who are pursuing a career inside and outside university. The impact of gender on the probability of being overskilled is higher for Ph.D. holders who work outside universi- ties and consistently favours men. Cohabiting with a partner is associated with a lower probabilityofovereducationandoverskillingbutahigherprobabilityofbeingoverskilled 32 Castellanoetal. outsideuniversity. Youngerdoctorateholdersarelesslikelytobeovereducatedandover- skilled, whereas living in northern Italy reduces the probability of being overeducated withinacademiccareersandtheprobabilityofbeingoverskilledoutsideuniversity. Most likely, doctorate holders have the highest opportunities for adequate jobs in northern and central Italy. Similarly, doctorate holders who have moved and are currently working outside the region where their doctorate degree was attained are less likely to be both overeducated and overskilled. Surprisingly, a higher final grade increases the probability ofbeingovereducatedandoverskilled,asdoeshavingattendedahighortechnicalschool. Regarding the field of study, overeducation is less likely for Ph.D.’s in physical and life sciences,engineeringandlawoutsideuniversityandonlyforPh.D.’sinphysicalsciences insideacademe. In general, the qualitative content of Ph.D. courses with respect to schools, seminars, teaching activities and experience abroad improves individual skills, allowing access to job positions that are well matched to the educational background, especially outside academe. Toassesstheroleplayedbyeducationalandskillmismatchesinwagepenalties(Har- tog, 2000; McGuinness, 2006), log-earnings equations are estimated in two alternative specifications, including overeducation and overskilling (Table 5). Here, it is important tonotethattheestimatedequationsdonotcontrolfortheclassicalhumancapitalcharac- teristics, such as the educational level, which is the same for all the employees, and job experience, as workers were analysed four years after they earned the doctorate. In this light,thePh.D.holders’earningsdependnotonlyonhumancapitalendowment,personal characteristics and parental background but also on the potential existence of overedu- cation and overskilling. However, both overeducation and overskilling act negatively on personal wages, especially inside university. Pay penalties increase (or at least do not decrease) if the characteristics of doctorate holders are not controlled for (unconditional estimates), suggesting that the covariates included in the model help identify the main causesofmismatchedjobs. Higher rewards are related to male doctorate holders who live in northern and cen- tral Italy and who attained the doctorate in any field of study related to social areas (except for humanity sciences inside and outside university and law inside). Generally, having a higher-level family background, proxied by father’s educational level and pro- fession, increases the expected wages for careers (e.g., a Ph.D. holder whose father has a medium/high level of education). However, the results denote rather different earnings dynamicsbetweenPh.D.holderswhoentercareersinsideoroutsideacademe. Regarding the analyses of differences in the probabilities of experiencing mismatch in education and skill (Table 6) as well as differences in wages (Table 7), the estimations from the logit and log-earnings models have been used to decompose these differences through extensions of the threefold OB technique in relation to the most important per- sonalcharacteristics. Being female and having earned the doctorate degree in southern Italy increase the probabilityofbeingoverskilledandovereducated. However,thispenaltyisclosetozero, especially for overeducation, within university, whereas it is more pronounced outside university. For gender, the return effects are more than double the endowment effects, denotingthatthemajorityofthisgapisattributabletohowpersonalanddoctoralcharac- teristics are rewarded and therefore could include a potential discriminatory component. ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 33 Table4: Determinantsofovereducationandoverskillingfouryearsafterdoctorate Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Overeducation Overskilling Overeducation Overskilling Socio-demographiccharacteristics Gender(1ifmale) −0.15 −2.06 −2.79 −3.79 Cohabiting(1iflivingwithapartner) −0.69 −1.78 −0.78 1.23 Children(1ifwithout) 0.74 0.86 −0.46 −2.06 Age(1if30yearsorless) −1.07 −1.88 −2.67 −0.18 Familybackground Father’seducationallevel(ref.: low) Medium(secondaryschool) −1.97 −2.22 −0.42 0.57 High(universitydegree) −0.03 −0.09 −1.19 1.53 Residencearea(ref.: SouthofItalyandIslands) North-West −0.22 −0.85 1.31 −1.85 North-East −1.03 0.56 0.95 −1.75 Centre 1.03 1.11 −0.86 −1.17 Educationalpath Finalgrade(ref.:≤104/110) Medium(105-107) 2.17 1.52 8.79 7.38 High(>107) 2.58 3.98 6.10 6.69 Secondaryschool(ref.: professional) Highschool 11.11 1.11 2.22 2.13 Technicalschool 10.38 1.56 2.43 2.57 Doctoralcharacteristics Mobility(1ifmovedtootherregion) −2.47 −3.07 −0.19 −0.31 Timetogetdoctorate(1ifnotontime) 0.21 1.02 0.56 0.58 continued... 34 Castellanoetal. ...continued Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Overeducation Overskilling Overeducation Overskilling Fieldofstudy(ref.: socialarea) Physicalsciences −0.62 0.12 −1.39 −0.17 Lifesciences 0.42 0.33 −0.62 0.04 Engineering 0.11 −0.33 −1.10 0.33 Humanities 0.66 0.22 0.41 2.11 EconomicsandStatistics 0.19 −1.11 0.16 −0.10 Law – 0.24 −0.25 1.38 Doctoraltutorialpath Seminars −0.67 −0.83 −0.03 −1.08 Laboratoryactivities 1.70 0.07 −2.86 −3.22 Schools 0.19 0.46 −1.53 0.61 Experiencesabroad −0.13 −3.10 −2.10 −3.02 Teaching −0.11 0.23 −0.97 −0.17 N 567 610 2468 2468 Loglikelihood −140.84 −301.79 −1983 −1738 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 35 Table5: Determinantsofwage-penalty Logofnetmonthlyincome Conditionalestimates Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Overeducation −0.4697 −0.1573 – Overskilling −0.2769 – −0.1762 Individualcharacteristics Gender(1ifmale) 0.0294 0.0123 0.1617 0.1604 Cohabiting(1iflivingwithapartner) −0.0379 −0.0525 0.0013 0.0037 Children(1ifwithout) 0.0466 0.0531 −0.0086 −0.0154 Age(1if30yearsorless) 0.0129 0.0084 −0.0393 −0.0365 Familybackground Father’seducationallevel(ref.: low) Medium(secondaryschool) 0.0958 0.0897 0.0407 0.0423 High(universitydegree) 0.1060 0.1079 0.0547 0.0586 Father’sprofession(ref.: elementary) Legislator,seniorofficialandmanager −0.0084 −0.0224 0.0826 0.0883 Experttechnician −0.0119 −0.0388 0.0196 0.0225 Technician −0.0028 0.0008 −0.0432 −0.0384 Clerkandqualifiedprofession −0.1736 −0.1547 −0.0319 −0.0166 Skilledoperator 0.1212 0.1017 −0.0122 −0.0221 Residencearea(ref.: SouthofItaly) North-West 0.0719 0.0487 0.1091 0.1065 North-East 0.0063 0.0184 0.0774 0.0644 Centre 0.0884 0.0764 0.0724 0.0739 Doctoralcharacteristics Mobility(1ifmovedtootherregion) 0.0897 −0.0647 0.0138 0.0530 continued... 36 Castellanoetal. ...continued Logofnetmonthlyincome Conditionalestimates Academiccareer Outsideuniversity Timetogetdoctorate(1ifnotintime) −0.0591 0.1030 −0.0016 0.0029 Fieldofstudy(ref.: socialarea) Physicalsciences 0.1582 0.1548 0.0655 0.0778 Lifesciences 0.2142 0.2877 0.1313 0.1504 Engineering 0.1365 0.1364 0.1696 0.1851 Humanities −0.0051 −0.0248 −0.0990 −0.0862 EconomicsandStatistics 0.1527 0.1229 0.01801 0.1830 Law −0.0468 −0.0375 0.3122 0.3311 Constant 7.2215 7.2639 7.1638 7.2252 N 355 355 1297 1297 AdjustedR 2 0.1403 0.1306 0.1785 0.1830 Unconditionalestimates Overeducation −0.4636 – −0.2026 – Overskilling – −0.3009 – −0.2153 ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 37 The greater rewards associated with hard sciences are confirmed by the high return ef- fects related to the decomposition of gaps in the probabilities of being overeducated and overskilled, especially outside university. Little differences among these decompositions arise according to the weighting scheme (Ω = 0,1) as can be seen from the residual part ofthedecompositioncapturedbytheinteractioncomponent. These results may be a relevant matter in the debate on policy developments to im- prove the performance of the doctoral process and to offer the labour market workers with the most adequate knowledge. The wage gap decompositions in every case show a high incidence of return effects (Table 7). With the exception of the field of study, the penalties based on the rewards are always higher for Ph.D. holders working outside university, suggesting that the existence of different contractual forms and professional framingsallowmajorsubjectivitythatcanalsohidediscrimination. Thegenderwagegap for careers outside university is more than double the corresponding one for academic careers,andoutsideuniversity,theincidenceofthereturneffectisalsodoublethatwithin university. Conversely, overeducation determines a greater wage gap within university, probably because in this context, it corresponds to administrative and low-paid jobs. Re- garding overskilling, surprisingly, those who declare that they suffer from this condition haveonaveragelowerendowmentsthantheremainingwell-matcheddoctorateholders. When we examine the specific contribution of variables to the gap (Table 8), when the groups are identified in relation to gender, the field of study has the most importance in the endowment effect inside and outside university, while mismatch is important only outside university. Demographic variables suggest higher characteristics on average for personslivinginsouthernItalyforalltypesofcareer,whilewithreferencetogenderand thefieldofstudy,highercharacteristicsexistonlyforcareersoutsideuniversity. 7 Conclusions Currently,Ph.D.programmesrepresentanessentialmeansofdevelopmentofaknowledge- based economy. Education and research form the so-called knowledge triangle and play akeyroleinintroducinginnovation. Thecreationofnewknowledgeandadvanceofeco- nomicactivitiesaredirectlyrelatedtothecapacitytodrawhumanresourcesintoresearch. Hence, investing in research and innovation drives the availability of a highly qualified workforce, which is the primary requisite for stimulating economic growth. In Italy, the share of doctoral graduates is still lower than in most European countries; nevertheless, Ph.D.’s obstacles in finding jobs adequate to their skills and competencies, especially outside academe. This problem is relevant because it encourages the “brain drain” and the consequent impoverishment of the country in an economic framework in which the turnoverwithinacademiaisalsoobstructedbythescarcityofresources. Inthispaper,weproposedananalysisoftheoccupationaloutcomesofItaliandoctor- ateholdersfouryearsafterthecompletionoftheirPh.D.programmeswithaspecialfocus on overeducation and overskilling and their potential consequences for wages. Highly diversified scenarios arise in labour conditions and remuneration, especially when we distinguish between doctorate holders’ careers within and outside university. These dif- ferencessuggestedthatthetwosituationsshouldbetreatedseparately. However,someof thesedifferencesareduetocharacteristicssuchasgender,fieldofstudyandthegeograph- 38 Castellanoetal. Table6: Decompositionoftheprobabilityofbeingoverskilledandovereducatedforgroupsof doctorateholdersbasedongender,geographicareaandfieldofstudy Overeducation Overskilling Academic career Outside university Academic career Outside university Gender(ref.: female) Ω = 1 EndowmentEffect 0.0010 −0.0217 −0.0143 −0.0191 ReturnEffect 0.0003 −0.0536 −0.0671 −0.0662 Interaction −0.0037 −0.0059 0.0199 −0.0113 Ω = 0 EndowmentEffect −0.0026 −0.0276 0.0056 −0.0304 ReturnEffect −0.0034 −0.0595 −0.0472 −0.0775 Interaction 0.0037 0.0059 −0.0199 0.0113 Gap −0.0024 −0.0812 −0.0615 −0.0966 Area(ref.: SouthItaly) Ω = 1 EndowmentEffect −0.0059 −0.0293 −0.0317 −0.0115 ReturnEffect −0.0029 −0.0207 0.0211 −0.0361 Interaction −0.0022 0.0151 −0.0145 −0.0012 Ω = 0 EndowmentEffect −0.0082 −0.0143 −0.0463 −0.0127 ReturnEffect −0.0051 −0.0057 0.0065 −0.0373 Interaction 0.0022 −0.0151 0.0145 0.0012 Gap −0.0110 −0.0350 −0.0252 −0.0488 Fieldofstudy(ref.: softsciences) Ω = 1 EndowmentEffect 0.0049 −0.0464 0.0197 −0.0316 ReturnEffect 0.0101 −0.0653 −0.0157 −0.0861 Interaction −0.0146 0.0150 −0.0230 0.0081 Ω = 0 EndowmentEffect −0.0097 −0.0314 −0.0033 −0.0236 ReturnEffect −0.0045 −0.0503 −0.0387 −0.0780 Interaction 0.0146 −0.0150 0.0230 −0.0081 Gap 0.0004 −0.0967 −0.0190 −0.1097 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 39 Table7: Decompositionofthewagegapforgroupsofdoctorateholdersbasedongender,geographicarea,fieldofstudy,overeducationand overskilling Groups Meanlog income Gap (1) Endowment (2) Return (3) Interaction (4) [(3)+(4)]/(1) Gender Academiccareer Males 7.5272 0.0905 0.0509 0.0256 0.0140 0.4376 Females 7.4367 OutsideUniversity Males 7.4672 0.2003 0.0419 0.1494 0.0089 0.7903 Females 7.2669 Area Academiccareer North-Centre 7.5055 0.0833 0.0317 0.0693 −0.0177 0.6194 South 7.4222 Outsideuniversity North-Centre 7.3951 0.0951 0.0127 0.0971 −0.0148 0.8654 South 7.3000 Field Academiccareer Hardscience 7.5473 0.2126 0.0119 0.1698 0.0309 0.9440 Softscience 7.3347 Outsideuniversity Hardsciences 7.4027 0.1801 0.0480 0.1018 0.0303 0.7335 Softsciences 7.2226 continued... 40 Castellanoetal. ...continued Groups Meanlog income Gap (1) Endowment (2) Return (3) Interaction (4) [(3)+(4)]/(1) Overed Academiccareer Wellmatched 7.5073 0.4636 0.2457 0.3613 −0.1433 0.4702 Overeducated 7.0437 Outsideuniversity Wellmatched 7.4342 0.1962 0.0867 0.1133 −0.0038 0.5581 Overeducated 7.2381 Oversk Academiccareer Wellmatched 7.5189 0.3009 −0.0643 0.1887 0.1765 1.2137 Overskilled 7.2180 Outsideuniversity Wellmatched 7.5184 0.2097 0.0773 0.1487 −0.0164 0.6309 Overskilled 7.3088 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 41 Table8: Contributiontothewagegapofcovariatesforgroupsofdoctorateholdersbasedongender,geographicareaandfieldofstudy Gender Area Fieldofstudy Inside academe Outside academe Inside academe Outside academe Inside academe Outside academe Logwage Prediction_1 Male 7.5272 7.4672 North-Centre 7.5055 7.3951 Hard 7.5473 7.4027 Prediction_2 Female 7.4367 7.2669 South 7.4222 7.3000 Soft 7.3347 7.2226 Gap 0.0905 0.2003 0.0833 0.0951 0.2126 0.1801 EndowmentEffect Gender – – −0.0010 0.0111 0.0038 0.0240 Demographic 0.0118 −0.0027 −0.0202 −0.0011 0.0097 −0.0095 Geographic −0.0034 0.0086 – – −0.0020 0.0034 Familybackground 0.0023 −0.0008 0.0328 0.0113 0.0065 0.0001 Timetoget 0.0049 −0.0004 0.0040 0.0002 −0.0216 0.0017 Fieldofstudy 0.0264 0.0158 0.0021 −0.0134 – – Mismatch 0.0088 0.0213 0.0141 0.0047 0.0154 0.0284 Total 0.0509 0.0419 0.0317 0.0127 0.0119 0.0480 ReturnEffect Gender – – 0.0079 0.0148 0.0470 −0.0070 Demographic −0.0798 −0.0083 0.0133 0.0785 −0.0532 0.0110 Geographic −0.0818 0.0140 – – −0.0735 0.0239 Family-background −0.1218 −0.0634 0.0327 0.0116 0.0738 −0.0350 Timetoget 0.0194 0.0090 −0.0280 0.0104 0.0038 −0.0019 Fieldofstudy 0.3496 −0.0123 −0.3729 −0.0487 – – Mismatch 0.0155 0.0644 0.0170 0.0363 0.0125 0.0431 Constant −0.0755 0.1461 0.3993 −0.0059 0.1594 0.0677 Total 0.0256 0.1494 0.0693 0.0971 0.1698 0.1018 continued... 42 Castellanoetal. ...continued Gender Area Fieldofstudy Inside academe Outside academe Inside academe Outside academe Inside academe Outside academe Interaction Gender – – 0.0008 −0.0018 −0.0180 0.0020 Demographic −0.0007 0.0029 0.0018 −0.0097 −0.0011 0.0198 Geographic 0.0088 −0.0003 - - 0.0191 0.0024 Family-background 0.0065 0.0019 −0.0361 −0.0132 0.0145 −0.0079 Timetoget −0.0052 0.0007 0.0098 −0.0046 0.0056 −0.0037 Fieldofstudy −0.0125 −0.0005 0.0002 0.0132 – – Mismatch 0.0170 0.0042 0.0059 0.0014 0.0107 0.0174 Total 0.0140 0.0089 −0.0177 −0.0148 0.0309 0.0303 Source:Authors’elaborationon2014censusdata(Istat) ItalianPh.D.HoldersandMismatch... 43 ical area where the doctorate degree was earned. In brief, although education and career pathwaysvary,asdothecareertrajectoriesfollowedafterthePh.D.holdersgraduatefrom theirdoctoralprogrammes,somecommoncharacteristicscanbeidentified. The persistence of significant mismatches and wage differentials in the occupations reservedforthehighest-educatedworkerscoulddenotetheinefficiencyofthelabourmar- ket in acquiring and valorising the available human capital. In particular, the dynamics within the academic career tend to contain the onset of inequalities in skills and wages when the different groups of doctorates are controlled for. Female Ph.D. holders and those who acquired the doctorate degree in southern Italy are more likely to experience both overeducation and overskilling even though the dynamics are different within and outside academe, with greater disparities outside. Furthermore, in assessing the implica- tionsforwages,wefindthatbeingfemaleincursmorepenaltiesthanbeingovereducated: on average, well-matched women in education earn less than overeducated men. Dif- ferent patterns are also identified for the rewards reserved for Ph.D.’s in relation to the field of specialisation: humanities and social sciences show the lowest wages, followed byengineeringoutsideuniversity. As highlighted by the OECD (2014), in Italy, not only are Ph.D.’s often better paid when they do not work as researchers, but inside university, the availability of tenured positions is consistently reduced. This situation favours the growth of less stable types of posts and reduces the attractiveness of research careers due, for example, to the recent freeze of employee turnover or to wage restraints and cuts. Therefore, to stimulate eco- nomic growth and produce knowledge and innovation, the challenges for policy makers concern finalising actions to improve the work conditions and attractiveness of research careers, to increase the wages paid for doctoral and postdoctoral fellowships, and to im- prove in the access of doctorate holders to both academic and no academic employment. In addition, fiscal incentives to attract these highly skilled workers to research could be anefficaciousinducementforenterprisestoinnovateandtopromoteeconomicgrowth. Ourresultssuggestextendingtheanalysistoalongerperiodandamorein-depthanal- ysis of some of the characteristics connected to the outcomes for Ph.D. holders, specifi- cally those who have still not found a job, controlling for specific sample selection. 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