.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > "(5 VID O Ü) o u 0) o fN cu C Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Matevž Hribernik (Overview of the common recommendations of the European Commission regarding the economic and structural policies in the EU); Maja Kersnik, MSc (Cash benefits to households during the economic crisis). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Print: Tiskarna Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................21 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................22 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................24 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................27 Overview of the common recommendations of the European Commission regarding the economic and structural policies in the EU...........................................................................................................................................29 Cash benefits to households during the economic crisis.........................................................................................30 Boxes Box 1: Sovereign debt crisis in Greece...........................................................................................................................8 Box 2: Wage movements since the beginning of the crisis......................................................................................16 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight International institutions improved significantly their forecasts for this year's GDP growth in Slovenia's main trading partners, mainly due to higher-than-expected growth in the first quarter of the year. The ECB revised upwards its forecast for the euro area by 0.2 p.p. to the interval between 1.5% and 2.3%. Growth prospects improved particularly for Germany and France. In the second quarter, GDP is not expected to grow as rapidly as in the first, which is suggested by slower growth in the volume of global trade and deterioration in sentiment indicators. Among the main risks to growth are sovereign debt problems in some peripheral European countries, which may jeopardise the financial stability of the total euro area. At the beginning of the second quarter, the values of short-term indicators of economic trends in Slovenia continued to increase steadily, except in the construction sector, which is still marked by a steep decline. Nominal goods exports continued to pick up and exceeded the average 2008 level in April, while real exports still lagged behind the 2008 level by roughly 3% according to our estimate. Having increased notably in March, the real volume of industrial production in manufacturing fell in April to the level recorded at the end of last year. Production is mainly growing in high-technology industries. Real turnover in retail trade grew further, after a two-month break, but its growth continued to be relatively modest this year, while the increase in nominal turnover in wholesale trade eased after relatively rapid growth at the beginning of the year. Real value of construction put in place dropped appreciably again between February and April, after growing at the end of last year. The cost competitiveness of the economy continued to improve y-o-y in the first quarter. As in the previous three quarters, cost competitiveness improved due to the y-o-y drop in the exchange rate of the euro and growth in labour productivity, which has been increasing since the beginning of last year following a significant decline in 2009. In addition, the first quarter recorded much lower y-o-y growth in compensation per employee than 2010, given that the minimum wage was raised at the beginning of 2010 and that in 2010, growth in the average private sector wage was strongly affected by changes in employment structure. With wage growth lagging more behind labour productivity growth than on average in the euro area and the EU, Slovenia was among euro area and EU countries with above average improvement in cost competitiveness in the first quarter of this year, after recording much less favourable trends than the euro area and the EU on average since the end of2008. Labour market conditions have stabilised during the last months, but remain worse than a year ago. The number of employed persons according to the statistical register and excluding seasonal effects remained practically unchanged in the first four months of this year, but was still 2.2% lower in April than in the same month last year. The unemployment rate was also stable in the first four months. According to the available data, the number of registered unemployed persons dropped further in May (-0.9%, seasonally adjusted), but was still more than 10,000 higher than at the end of May 2010. The average gross wage per employee declined in April as a result of wage movements in the private sector. April's decline in the average gross wage in the private sector was attributable to fewer working days and March payments for business results in 2010, while the average wage in the public sector increased slightly due to wage growth in health care. Y-o-y growth in the private sector was equal to that in the previous month, when it eased to the level before last year's increase in the minimum wage; the public sector wage has remained more or less unchanged for more than two years. Consumer prices declined by 0.5% in June; y-o-y inflation totalled 1.3%. Amid the expected, yet unusually large, changes in prices of seasonal goods and services, and declining prices of liquid fuels as a result of lower prices of oil, Slovenia reported deflation in June, which is not typical for this time of the year (recorded only in 2002 and 2006). In Slovenia, y-o-y inflation in June was thus 0.8 p.p. lower than that in May; in the euro area, it remained at 2.7.%. The gap between inflation in Slovenia and inflation in the euro area as a whole is, in addition to different seasonal price changes, still mainly due to the subsidies for primary school meals introduced in September 2010. The lending activity of domestic banks remained modest in May. Enterprises and NFIs continued to make net repayments of domestic bank loans in May and net repaid EUR 51.7 m in total in the first five months of the year, in contrast to net borrowing in the amount of EUR 324.1 m in the same period of last year. Their liquidity situation has improved somewhat on account of borrowing abroad. The opportunity to borrow abroad is otherwise available only to a small portion of Slovenian enterprises, and these borrowed EUR 136 m in the first four months of the year. Household borrowing strengthened mainly as a result of housing loans, but net flows in the first five months of this year were nearly two-thirds lower y-o-y due to the modest borrowing at the beginning of the year. Banks made net repayments of foreign deposits and loans again in April, the highest since October 2008; they repaid as much as EUR 776.7 m in a net amount in the first four months as a whole, which is otherwise one quarter less than in the same period last year. The quality of banks' assets is deteriorating further: in the first five months of this year, banks created EUR 232.1 m in additional impairments and provisions, a more than one quarter higher figure than in the same period of last year. The deficit of the general government increased to 10.3% of GDP in the first quarter of 2011 (8.8% of GDP a year earlier), mainly due to the inclusion of the capital injection into the NLB in current transactions. In the first quarter of 2011, the deficit of the general government totalled EUR 879 m. Excluding the equity injection into the NLB in the amount of EUR 243 m, the deficit would amount to EUR 636 m or 7.5% of GDP. Consolidated gross debt of the general government, having totalled EUR 13,704 m at the end of last year (38.1% of GDP), increased to EUR 16,385 m (45.2% of GDP) by the end of the first quarter this year. ■Ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ £ 3 U International environment International institutions improved significantly their forecasts for this year's economic growth in the euro area and Slovenia's main trading partners, particularly due to higher-than-expected growth in the first quarter of the year. The ECB revised upwards its growth forecast for the euro area, by 0.2 p.p., to the interval between 1.5% and 2.3%. The IMF upgraded substantially its 2011 forecasts for Germany and France, but lowered the forecasts for the US, UK and Japan. International institutions expect global economic growth to ease in the second quarter, as suggested by the movement of the volume of global trade, which was growing in the first few months of this year, reached the highest level to date1 in March and dropped by 2.8% in April. Sentiment indicators are deteriorating as well (Ifo, PMI). According to the IMF, the risks to growth are higher than in April, particularly those associated with the possible consequences of the natural disaster in Japan, uncertainties regarding the US economic recovery and a further deepening of the sovereign debt crisis in peripheral European countries. Commodity price growth, having slowed in recent months, represents a smaller, yet still significant, risk. The expected slowdown of GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter of 2011 is suggested by sentiment indicators, in particular. The values of sentiment indicators have deteriorated heavily in recent months. In June, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro area declined for the fourth month in a row, while the PMI2 index for industrial output in the euro area hit the lowest value in the last 20 months. German business expectations (Ifo, ZEW) for the coming months are deteriorating as well. Industrial production in manufacturing otherwise recorded a slight increase in April, but lower than in the first months of this year. Turnover in retail trade dropped to the level of September 2008, and is recovering only in countries that face no major problems on the labour market. The volume of construction put in place ceased Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area -Industrial production in manufacturing -New orders in manufacturing -----Value of construction put in place -----Turnover in trade —•— Sentiment indicator, EMU (right axis) C 110 o E JZ 105 (Z o äE 100 95 T\ (ß CN 5^90 (ß (Ü "85 ■Ö 80 '■TD 75 O 70 1 f ^ i..... 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 io io io io Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. to decline in the first few months of the year, but still lags noticeably behind the average volume in 2008. The yields of 10-year government bonds of the countries with the greatest public finance difficulties continued to rise in June, while growth in interbank interest rates in the euro area was lower than in previous months. In light of the deepening crisis in Greece, the yields of most government bonds in the euro area increased further in June, reaching new record highs in the countries with the greatest public finance problems (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). The three-month EURIBOR rate rose by 6 b.t. in June (76 b.t. y-o-y), to 1.49%, while the US LIBOR and CHF LIBOR rates declined to 0.25% and 0.17%, respectively. The key interest rates of main central banks were left unchanged in June, but in July the ECB is expected to raise slightly the interest rate on the main refinancing operations again after three months. Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts by international institutions and assumptions used in IMAD Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2011 2011 2012 IMAD March 11 IMF April 11 EC May 11 OECD May 11 CONS June 11 IMF June 11 IMAD March 11 IMF April 11 EC May 11 OECD May 11 CONS June 11 IMF June 11 EMU 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 EU 1.7 N/A 1.8 N/A 2.0 2.0 1.9 N/A 1.9 np 1.7 2.1 DE 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.0 2.0 IT 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 AT 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.6 N/A 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.0 N/A FR 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9 UK 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.3 US 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.7 Source: IMAD Spring Forecast of Economic Trends (March 2011), EC European Economic Forecast (May 2011), OECD Economic Outlook (May 2011), Consesus Forecasts (June 2011), IMF World Economic Outlook Update (June 2011). 1 According to the available CPB data from 1990. 2 The Purchasing Managers' Index. Box 1: Sovereign debt crisis in Greece 400 250 200 lEUR billion (left axis) -As "/o of GDP (right axis) Source: OECD. 160 100 80 Greece's government gross debt has been growing rapidly in the Figure 2: Greece's government gross debt last decade so that during the economic crisis, the government was no longer able to pay it back and had to ask for financial assistance from the international community, which was granted in May last year. Greece's government gross debt, having totalled EUR 160.6 bn in 2001 (109.7% of GDP), increased to EUR 340.3 bn by 2010 (147.8% of GDP) and is set to total as much as 166.1% of GDP in 2012, according to the EC's spring forecast. This high debt level and structural difficulties were reflected in distrust in financial markets and a lowering of the credit rating for Greece. The yields of Greek government bonds thus started to increase substantially at the beginning of last year, so that the country was no longer able to obtain funds in financial markets and requested financial aid from other euro area countries and the ECB in April last year. Together with the IMF, they approved a EUR 110 bn rescue package in May (with EUR 80 bn coming from euro area countries and EUR 30 bn from the IMF), until the end of 2013, when Greece is expected to be able to access the financial markets again after carrying out public finance consolidation and structural reforms. Greece has so far been granted loans in the amount of EUR 64.3 bn in four tranches.1 In this short time, it was not capable fully to implement the austerity measures agreed upon in last year's programme of financial aid, so that last year, its general government deficit narrowed less than foreseen. As a consequence, serious concerns were raised in June this year about the ability of the Greek government to fulfil its commitments, which jeopardised the disbursement of the fifth tranche in the amount of EUR 12 bn due in July. At the same time, a new financial aid package in the amount of EUR 120 bn started to be discussed, and the possibilities of private creditors' involvement in solving the Greek crisis. This raised questions about which banks and national banking system were the most exposed to Greece and how this exposure could affect the financial stability of the entire European financial system. According to the available data, Greek banks hold the most of Greek gross government debt, with the French and German banking sectors being the most exposed among other banking sectors in the EU. According to Bruegel,2 Greek banks held one fifth of Greek government debt at the end of 2010, other euro area banks about 16.4%,3 domestic banks and foreign Figure 3: Geographical distribution of Greece's financial obligations, in USD bn Figure 4: Structure creditors, in EUR bn of Greece's government debt ECB; 15.2 Non-banking institutions (domestic and foreign); 36.2 Source: Bruegel. Other banks; 18 1 Slovenia has to date granted EUR 207 m in aid of the amount allowed by law (EUR 387 m). 2 Bruegel Policy Contribution, Zsolt Darvas, Debt restructuring in the Euro Area: A necessary but manageable evil? (June 2011). 3 According to BIS data, German banks held the most claims on the Greek public sector at the end of last year, followed by French banks. non-banking institutions just over one third, the ECB about 15% and the IMF and EU together close to 10%. International institutions are pushing for a comprehensive and consistent implementation of austerity measures, which will be difficult to achieve, according to our estimate, given the level of fiscal effort. A restructuring or partial write-off of the Greek public debt would likely increase instability of the Greek economy and its financial system, possibly resulting in failure in meeting the obligations to foreign creditors by other sectors of the Greek economy. According to the most recent BIS data, 24 national banking systems for which statistical data are collected had USD 145 bn in claims on Greece (of which 93.5% European banks; 62.2% Germany and France alone).4 Claims on the non-banking private sector account for the largest amount (USD 80.6 bn, or 55.3%); about one half of them are booked by French banks followed by German banks (11.3%). Claims on the public sector total USD 54.2 bn (37.2%), with claims by German and French banks representing the largest shares (41.8% and 27.6%, respectively). Claims on Greek banks amount to USD 10.9 bn (7.5%), of which UK banks hold almost one quarter, and German and French banks about one fifth. Greece's inability to repay its debts would thus jeopardise the stability of the entire European financial system and therefore represents the key risk to the expected further recovery of the European economy. 4 The BIS statistics on foreign claims also includes other potential exposures (derivatives, guarantees extended and credit commitments) in the amount of USD 60.6 bn, showing by far the highest exposure for US banks (USD 34.4 bn). Figure 5: Government bond yields 16 10 0 E -5 E Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The value of the euro did not change much against the main world currencies in June, except against the Swiss franc. The average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar rose slightly in June (by 0.3%, to USD 1.439 to EUR 1) and was 18.0% higher y-o-y. It also appreciated against the British pound sterling (by 1.1%, to GBP 0.888 to EUR 1), but dropped notably relative to the Swiss franc (by 3.6%, to CHF 1.209 to EUR 1), hitting the lowest value since the introduction of the euro. It also depreciated against the Japanese yet (by 0.6%, to JPY 115.75 to EUR 1). Oil and non-energy commodity prices stopped rising in May and June. The average monthly price of Brent crude oil fell by 1.0%, to USD 113.8 a barrel in June (in EUR, by 0.8%, to EUR 79.09 a barrel). The average monthly oil price in US dollars rose by 52.3% y-o-y, in euros by 27.2%. After the OPEC countries failed to agree on an increase in their oil production quotas, the IEA released strategic reserves, which led to oil price declines. According to IMF data, dollar prices of non-energy commodities dropped by 3.7% in May (the most recent data), reaching January 2011 levels. The steepest declines were recorded for prices of agricultural commodities and certain metals, which had been increasing strongly in the second half of last year. Figure 6: Oil and non-energy commodity prices -Prices of Brent crude (USD) -Non-energy commodity prices (USD) 140 100 80 40 o ooo o CD -1 200 300 400 50( EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Source: MF. 0 600 M %J a o ■Ö 01 u 31 0! Overview of the common recommendations of the European Commission regarding the economic and structural policies in the EU Within the framework of renewed economic policy coordination in the EU, the so-called European semester started to be implemented in January 2011. The new cycle of economic governance should enable a more transparent and effective coordination of budgetary and structural policies at the level of individual Member States and the entire EU, which should also be more closely related to the procedures in the Stability Pact. The European Commission started by preparing the Annual Growth Survey at the beginning of the year, which served as the basis for the adoption of key priorities at the EU level in March. The Member States submitted Stability Programmes29 and National Reform Programmes30 in April (the countries that are not in the euro area presented Convergence Programmes), based on which the European Commission prepared recommendations for individual Member States. Once the recommendations are formally adopted31 by the European Council, the Member States should take them into account when devising their next year budgets. The recommendations regarding the reduction of the general government deficit are binding within the framework of the Stability Pact, while other recommendations are not and mainly represent political pressure to improve coordination of economic policies in Member States and reach the common EU targets. The recommendations are primarily focused on the implementation of programmes and measures related to delivering the Europe 2020 targets. For the countries that are receiving financial assistance in solving the sovereign debt crisis (Greece, Ireland and Portugal), other procedures are foreseen in the temporary support mechanisms. The overall assessment of the Commission is that the programmes presented by the Member States reflect the agreed priorities of the EU, but often lack ambition and concrete measures. The Commission is concerned that the commitments included in the countries' programmes will not allow the EU to meet its headline targets by 2020. On the basis of the national commitments, the EU is on track to achieve its targets for environment and early school-leaving, while additional efforts will be required for reaching other targets. Moreover, with a number of measures defined only generally and at a declarative level, the programmes lack concrete commitments and actions. In the light of the significant deterioration of public finances during the crisis, most recommendations pertain to their stabilisation. The Commission thus proposed as many as 45 recommendations32 in total, calling for more ambitious measures in the area of fiscal consolidation and for a reduction of the general government deficit in line with the commitments of the Stability Pact. According to the Stability Programme targets by euro area Member States, the euro area deficit would decrease to 1.3% of GDP on average by 2014 (2008: -2.0%; 2010: 6.0% of GDP), while the debt ratio would decline to below 85% of GDP (2008: 69.1%; 2010: 85.3% of GDP). To reach these goals, the EC recommends a further strengthening of the fiscal institutional framework, i.e. national (medium-term) budgetary frameworks, meeting MTO, particularly by binding expenditure ceilings, multi-annual budgetary plans and development-oriented budgets. Table 11: EU 2020 targets - comparison Slovenia EU, foreseen (on average, based on 2011 programmes) EU targets (on average) Smart growth GERD, in % of GDP 3 % 2.65-2.72 % 3 % Share of early school-leavers, in % 5 % 10.30-10.50 % 10 % Tertiary education, completed education, population aged 30-34, in % 40 % 37.50-38.0 % 40 % Inclusive growth Employment rate, population aged 20-64, in % 75 % 73.70-74 % 75 % Reduction of poverty in number of persons compared to 2008 level 40,000 20 m Sustainable growth Reduction in GHG emissions compared to 2005 level 20 % 20 % 20 % Renewable energy sources, increase in the share in total consumption, in % 20 % 20 % 20 % Energy efficiency, reduction of energy consumption in Mtoe 20 % 206.9 (11 %) 368 (20 %) Source: National reform programme 2011 - Slovenia, EC. 29 Measures in the area of public finances. 30 Measures encouraging growth and employment, structural reforms. 31 After being proposed by the Commission and coordinated in various Council formations, the recommendations become effective only after they have been adopted by the Council. During the coordination, certain recommendations can be changed significantly or deleted. 32 A country can receive several recommendations for different areas, but all the assessed countries obtained at least one recommendation pertaining to public finances. The Commission was also critical of the countries, in which the budgetary planning is based on unreal and overly optimistic macroeconomic forecasts. Slovenia was recommended to implement the necessary fiscal consolidation rigorously and underpin the 2012 deficit target with concrete measures. A number of Member States need to improve the long-term stability of public finances, with changes in pensions and health care systems playing an important role in light of population ageing. Reducing early exit from the labour force is one of the key changes in this area, along with the increase in retirement age. Slovenia should, according to the Commission, also take measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the pension system, while preserving the adequacy of pensions. The Commission also recommends maintaining the measures that encourage growth and job creation. During the fiscal consolidation, the countries should retain the measures implemented in crucial fields such as research, development and innovations, business environment and competitiveness of the services sector. Besides the effective implementation of the Services Directive, the Commission recommends to a number of Member States to remove the remaining unjustified barriers in the area of regulated professions, and to Slovenia, in addition to what has been mentioned above, to improve the administrative capacity of the Competition Protection Office. Several countries were also advised to improve the functioning of the financial sector, with the Commission being particularly critical of Spain and the functioning of its savings bank system. Slovenia was recommended to take further measures to ensure sufficient loan loss recognition and cleaning of balance sheets across the banking sector. A proper functioning of the financial sector is also important for small and medium-sized enterprises, as access to funding is crucial for their growth. The Commission also recommends adoption of further measures to increase energy efficiency, emphasising a shift towards taxation according to energy consumption, in particular. In its recommendations for the labour market, the EC places special emphasis on efforts to increase labour market participation of the population and reduce structural unemployment and unemployment of young people. In their programmes, most EU countries plan to improve active employment policies, including public employment services. The labour market would also be favourably impacted by tax system changes that would reduce the tax wedge on labour, particularly for low-wage workers and long-term unemployed people, by shifting taxation from labour and onto consumption. The Commission also draws attention to the need for reviewing wagesetting systems, to ensure that wages develop in line with productivity growth. Regarding the labour market, Slovenia was recommended to decrease labour market segmentation, besides achieving a responsive labour market and improving the effectiveness of the Employment Service of Slovenia. To this end, Slovenia should take steps to reduce asymmetries in rights guaranteed under permanent and temporary contracts and renew its efforts to reform student work. IMAD came to a similar conclusion;33 however, it should be noted that the labour market segmentation also results from the legislation now in force and cannot be addressed without a regulatory change. Cash benefits to households during the economic crisis In times of crisis, the structure of cash benefit recipients tends to change due to growing demand by certain population groups, and so does the structure of household disposable income. Crisis times increase demand for social benefits for unemployed people, people who already had difficulties to provide means of subsistence for themselves and their families before the crisis, and those individuals or families whose material conditions deteriorate suddenly due to the crisis or for other reasons and who therefore became eligible for exceptional or one-off lump-sum payments. As analysed in our latest Development Report,34 the structure of household disposable income changed in 2009: the share of income from employment declined and the share of income from cash benefits increased. We analysed the movement of cash benefits using data collected in the Database of cash benefits,35 which allows a different, and from certain aspects, deeper insight into the movement and structure of household receipts than data gathered according to some other methodologies.36 The database also enables classification of data on cash benefits according to 15 target groups (functions) and by benefit categories, i.e. means-tested37 and non-means-tested benefits, or monthly or one-time lump-sum payments.38 Expenditure on cash benefits posted much faster growth in 2009 (in both nominal and real terms) than in previous years; expenditures on means-tested and non-means-tested cash benefits recorded equal growth, while expenditure 33 See Economic Issues 2011, the Labour Market Issues chapter, IMAD. 34 See http://www.umar.gov.si/Development Report 2011 35 See the IMAD Working Papers Cash Benefits in Slovenia's Public Expenditure, No. 9/2006 and No. 7/2008. The most recent data in the database are for 2009. Maintained by IMAD since 1992, the database consists of a catalogue of data on all cash benefits that Slovenia provides to its citizens from public funds (state and local government budgets and social security funds). These benefits are part of the social security system and improve the material and living conditions of the population. 36 MISSOC, ESSPROS, COFOG. 37 Means-tested cash benefits are benefits granted according to the material conditions of an individual or their family. The term "means" pertains to material circumstances. Material circumstances are defined according to: income and receipts from employment, property income, social insurance benefits and other social benefits. The means test is used for benefits for people in material distress. 38 As the name suggests, one-time cash benefits are paid, for example, once a year. They are, for example: large-family allowance, annual pension supplement, etc. These benefits (for example, exceptional financial social assistance) are also important in times of crisis, when the material situation of the population deteriorates for a certain period of time (and/ or suddenly). on one-time lump-sum cash benefits increased faster than expenditure on monthly cash benefits. In 2009, Slovenia allocated EUR 5.7 bn in total (16.3% of GDP) for public expenditure on cash benefits. This expenditure grew by 5.5% (for both means-tested and non-means tested cash benefits) in real terms, which is the largest increase by far in the period from 2001 to 2009. In means-tested cash benefits, this was a reversal of the trend, as expenditure on these benefits had previously been falling for several years due to the favourable economic situation (-1.7% in 2006; -8.6% in 2007, -0.4% in 2008), while non-means-tested cash benefits had also been growing in real terms in previous years. Real growth in expenditure on onetime lump-sum cash benefits in 2009 was faster (5.8%; -0.8% in 2008) than growth in expenditure on monthly benefits (5.5%). Figure 41: Expenditure on cash benefits Figure 42: Expenditure according to function Source: ZDPU -IMAD's Database of Cash Benefits; calculations by IMAD. The structure of expenditure on cash benefits according to function shows that the total real growth of this expenditure mainly arose from increasing benefits for unemployed people, poor people39 and, through child benefits, parents. Growth largely resulted from the increase in the volume of funds for financial social assistance for poor people (15.6% real growth), care allowances for pensioners (8.7% real growth) and child benefits in the target group parents (4.0% real growth). In addition to a higher number of benefits, expenditure growth also reflected the increase in the amount of individual benefits. In 2009, the Slovenian citizens received 2,303,721 benefits,40 in total, 3.0% more than a year earlier. The year 39 The population receiving financial social assistance. 40 The figure refers to the average number of benefits (disbursed in a calendar year) rather than the number of persons entitled to the benefit. In most cases the benefit is intended for one person (one benefit = one beneficiary). Exceptionally, one benefit may be assigned to several people (e.g. financial social assistance, family pension, etc.), in which case it is regarded as one benefit, despite several beneficiaries. The benefit can also 20 15 10 5 0 J^ -5 -10 -15 Source: ZDPU - IMAD's Database of Cash Benefits; calculations by IMAD. 2009 recorded the strongest growth both in the volume of funds and the number of beneficiaries in the total period from 2001 to 2009. In the number of benefits, the greatest increase was (as in expenditure) recorded for the number of those granted to the most materially deprived groups, i.e. unemployed (63.3%) and poor people (15.4%), which indicates that the crisis had a significant impact on changes in the structure of benefits. The number of benefits for unemployed and poor people declined amid the more favourable economic circumstances and labour market conditions in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The 2009 growth in the number of benefits definitely reflects increased population needs as a result of the economic crisis. The number of sickness benefits increased as well (7.9% growth in wage compensation for sick-leave), which can be, to a certain extent, attributed to poor material conditions and various psychological pressures and stress, which tend to increase in times of crisis. The number of benefits for people in school (scholarships) increased strongly too (by 20.6%), but this was also a result of legislative changes adopted before the crisis. The increase in scholarships undoubtedly helped to improve the material situation of families with school-age children. The number of means-tested cash benefits rose by 2.9% in 2009, the number of non-means-tested cash benefits by 3.1%. The number of monthly cash benefits was 3.5% higher and the number of one-time lump-sum payments rose by 1.8%. One-time payments do not include the onetime special allowance disbursed in 2009 according to the Special Allowance for Socially Disadvantaged Persons Act,41 which provided for a special, albeit one-time, bonus for beneficiaries whose social situation deteriorated as a result of the economic and financial crisis. As this act applied only for the year 2009, this allowance was not be paid to the same person twice in a year (one person, two benefits). This analysis therefore counts benefits rather than beneficiaries (persons). 41 Having entered into force on 25 July 2009. Figure 43: The number of beneficiaries by function Source: SORS. included in the Database of cash benefits. If it were added to the number of other one-time benefits in 2009, the number of one-time benefits would increase by 18.8% relative to the previous year. Growth in the number of cash benefits and related expenditure increased significantly during the economic crisis in 2009, which shows the adequacy of Slovenia's institutional networks in the area of social policy, as the government has already been able to render assistance to the most vulnerable social groups according to the existing regulations. This is also in line with the maximin principle applied in the social policy of limited funds, according to which the most vulnerable population groups should be helped first. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Spring forecast 2011 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.2 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 36,061 36,843 38,788 40,602 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,597 18,052 18,967 19,820 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,700 21,200- - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 88 91 88 87- - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 35,511 36,067 37,842 39,627 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 35,555 36,069 37,795 39,654 Rate of registered unemployment 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 12.1 12.3 12.3 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.4 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.2 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 7.8 6.9 6.7 6.3 Exports of goods 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 10.2 7.7 7.4 6.6 Exports of services 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 -1.1 3.4 3.3 4.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 6.6 5.1 6.0 5.2 Imports of goods 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 7.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 Imports of services 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 1.1 4.7 6.0 5.9 Current account balance, in EUR million -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -409 -865 -924 -606 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.4 -1.5 Gross external debt, in EUR million 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 40,851 42,5035 As a per cent share relative to GDP 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 113.3 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.362 1.365 1.365 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 As a % of GDP4 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 56.2 56.7 55.8 55.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 As a % of GDP4 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.1 20.1 19.7 19.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 -6.7 2.9 4.5 3.0 As a % of GDP4 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.2 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End April 2011. PRODUCTION 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.5 -17.4 6.7 -18.2 -24.6 -18.4 -7.1 -0.4 11.2 8.0 7.9 9.6 -29.8 -22.3 -21.6 -20.8 -17.6 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 -2.9 12.6 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 14.1 26.5 18.0 -4.0 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 C Manufacturing 2.6 -18.7 7.1 -20.0 -25.9 -19.5 -7.9 0.1 12.1 8.0 7.8 10.1 -31.6 -23.6 -22.5 -22.1 -19.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.1 -6.6 1.8 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.3 -9.5 -4.7 -11.2 -9.6 -7.3 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 -21.0 -17.0 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -23.6 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 Buildings 11.5 -22.6 -14.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -39.0 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 Civil engineering 18.9 -19.9 -18.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -5.6 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 18.4 -9.2 7.9 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 Tonne-km in rail transport -2.3 -24.2 28.2 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 10.1 -13.0 3.6 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.7 -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 Real turnover in retail trade 12.2 -10.6 -0.1 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.7 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.2 -21.7 12.1 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.4 11.8 14.1 15.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 17.1 -21.4 1.4 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 4.1 5.4 3.2 12.6 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.8 -3.4 -1.5 -3.5 -4.6 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 2.4 -11.9 -2.7 -3.4 0.8 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.2 2.8 -4.2 4.3 1.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 3.3 -2.8 2.9 8.9 6.8 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -0.5 -8.0 0.7 -10.6 -8.6 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 1.7 -17.4 -6.7 -11.7 -3.0 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 -7.8 2.7 -3.9 -8.2 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 6.4 3.9 -6.1 -9.3 -9.2 -7.8 -5.9 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 529.9 449.3 454.5 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values««) Sentiment indicator 3 -23 -9 -31 -28 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -34 -26 -24 -21 -19 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 -23 -1 -35 -27 -19 -13 -7 0 3 0 4 -32 -27 -22 -23 -20 - in construction 2 -50 -57 -43 -51 -54 -51 -57 -60 -56 -54 -52 -52 -47 -53 -49 -58 - in services 27 -13 -3 -20 -24 -9 -1 -2 -5 -1 -3 1 -28 -22 -22 -12 -10 - in retail trade 22 -13 7 -17 -17 -9 -7 -6 10 12 12 1 -16 -18 -18 -16 -6 Consumer confidence indicator -20 -30 -25 -39 -32 -23 -25 -25 -22 -27 -25 -27 -41 -30 -24 -26 -26 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. 2009 2010 2011 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 -16.8 -19.6 -1.8 4.7 -8.8 -1.4 8.3 9.1 14.3 10.2 6.8 13.4 4.9 5.7 5.1 13.6 14.7 7.2 7.5 4.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.7 18.6 39.7 22.5 24.5 -1.0 41.5 -4.4 1.1 -7.7 -6.8 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.8 -0.9 9.0 10.3 15.1 11.0 7.6 14.3 3.7 5.5 5.6 12.9 15.4 7.5 8.3 4.4 - - -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 10.1 5.8 3.0 5.3 - - -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -15.3 -23.6 -29.7 -27.3 - - -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -17.3 -41.2 -53.1 -38.4 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -13.0 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 9.2 10.4 4.6 4.2 - - -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.4 5.8 0.9 0.6 1.7 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.6 19.6 11.4 11.7 15.4 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.1 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.3 15.4 10.4 3.9 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.0 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -2.6 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -4.9 - -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.2 7.0 5.8 6.3 5.3 3.0 3.4 4.7 - - 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 -13 -12 -14 -14 -10 -11 -15 -12 -9 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -14 -16 -12 -11 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 6 1 1 2 -2 -1 4 4 3 6 4 2 -55 -55 -49 -49 -55 -56 -61 -62 -58 -59 -60 -56 -51 -50 -55 -56 -55 -50 -50 -49 -44 -45 -4 5 -5 -3 5 2 -12 -9 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 4 5 3 3 -6 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 -5 9 9 13 10 14 12 13 10 12 -4 12 -4 13 16 13 -17 -26 -24 -26 -25 -23 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 -26 -26 -24 -26 -26 -28 -26 -27 -24 -23 LABOUR MARKET 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 942.5 944.5 935.5 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 945.3 945.6 944.1 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 879.3 858.2 835.0 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 860.8 859.1 855.6 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 39.7 37.9 33.4 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 In industry, construction 330.4 306.9 287.3 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 309.1 307.1 305.3 Of which: in manufacturing 222.4 199.8 188.6 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 201.2 199.2 197.8 in construction 87.9 86.8 78.5 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 87.5 87.5 87.2 In services 509.1 513.4 514.3 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 513.7 514.0 512.4 Of which: in public administration 51.0 51.5 52.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.7 in education, health-services, social work 111.1 113.8 116.7 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 114.2 114.1 113.0 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 789.9 767.4 747.2 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 770.5 768.5 764.5 In enterprises and organisations 717.6 699.4 685.7 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 701.7 699.8 696.5 By those self-employed 72.3 67.9 61.5 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 68.8 68.7 68.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 89.4 90.8 87.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 90.3 90.6 91.1 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 63.2 86.4 100.5 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 84.5 86.5 88.5 Female 33.4 42.4 47.9 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 41.5 42.5 43.5 By age: under 26 9.1 13.3 13.9 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 13.1 13.0 13.0 aged over 50 21.9 26.2 31.4 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 Unskilled 25.4 34.1 37.5 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 33.5 34.2 34.7 For more than 1 year 32.3 31.5 42.8 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 30.3 30.5 30.7 Those receiving benefits 14.4 27.4 30.0 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 27.6 28.7 28.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 6.7 9.1 10.7 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 8.9 9.1 9.4 Male 5.6 8.3 10.1 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 Female 8.1 10.2 11.6 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -2.2 30.4 13.3 13.4 6.8 1.9 8.3 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.5 17.0 16.8 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 Redundancies 53.0 90.5 83.5 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 7.4 7.0 7.3 Registered unemployed who found employment 41.7 48.6 57.0 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 4.3 3.9 4.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 26.1 28.5 29.9 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 2.2 1.9 2.1 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 240.5 161.3 174.6 40.1 40.3 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 13.9 14.5 14.7 For a fixed term, in % 74.5 78.1 80.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 77.8 78.7 80.0 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 81.1 86.6 75.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 74.9 74.4 74.2 90.6 87.8 86.6 As % of labour force 8.6 9.2 8.1 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 9.6 9.3 9.2 NEW JOBS 162.7 111.4 104.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 8.8 8.5 8.7 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by pDiI and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2009 2010 2011 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 N/A. 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 -0.4 0.3 6.2 0.9 1.2 2.9 0.2 -0.9 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 75.1 74.9 74.5 73.9 74.0 74.2 74.4 74.3 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 2 3 4 5 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 8.3 3.4 3.9 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.1 -0.2 5.8 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 B Mining and quarrying 13.4 0.9 4.0 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 C Manufacturing 7.5 0.8 9.0 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.5 3.8 3.7 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.8 2.0 2.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 F Constrution 7.5 1.0 4.4 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.7 1.9 3.7 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 H Transportation and storage 8.4 0.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 I Accommodation and food service activities 8.3 1.6 4.0 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 J Information and communication 7.3 1.4 2.6 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 K Financial and insurance activities 6.0 -0.7 1.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 L Real estate activities 6.0 1.9 3.0 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 8.4 2.1 1.6 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 N Administrative and support service activities 9.6 1.8 4.1 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 12.2 5.9 -0.6 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 P Education 7.0 3.6 0.6 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 12.0 -0.3 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.3 3.9 0.5 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 S Other service activities 8.2 1.3 4.2 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.5 0.4 -1.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.8 0.7 -1.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 Real (relative producer prices)2 0.8 2.9 -2.8 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 USD/EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.367 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Relative to 17 trading partners; weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Industrial producer prices in manufacturing activities. 2009 2010 2011 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.2 -0.8 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.8 3.9 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.7 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 1.336 1.365 1.400 1.444 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 7 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 6.3 6.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - - 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2009 2010 2011 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.9 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.2 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q^ Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -2,489 -526 -409 -304 64 -235 -51 -107 -78 -64 -160 -87 4 18 42 -84 Goods1 -2,650 -699 -974 -156 -29 -228 -286 -135 -204 -174 -461 -283 -67 -7 45 -50 Exports 20,048 16,167 18,381 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,203 4,693 4,637 4,847 5,021 1,304 1,333 1,427 1,401 Imports 22,698 16,866 19,354 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,338 4,897 4,811 5,308 5,304 1,371 1,340 1,382 1,451 Services 1,493 1,114 1,057 239 311 296 269 234 299 261 263 306 103 112 96 59 Exports 5,043 4,301 4,363 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 925 1,071 1,260 1,107 1,076 344 348 357 436 Imports 3,549 3,187 3,306 679 738 977 793 692 772 999 844 769 241 236 261 376 Income -1,030 -782 -597 -230 -200 -241 -112 -152 -130 -158 -157 -162 -56 -77 -67 -96 Receipts 1,261 665 904 131 176 138 220 209 241 222 232 207 51 55 69 51 Expenditure 2,292 1,447 1,500 361 376 378 332 361 371 380 389 369 107 132 137 146 Current transfers -302 -159 104 -158 -18 -62 79 -53 -43 6 194 52 24 -11 -31 2 Receipts 870 957 1,199 141 266 176 374 258 215 271 455 377 116 80 69 80 Expenditure 1,172 1,116 1,095 299 283 238 296 312 258 264 261 325 92 90 101 77 Capital and financial account 2,545 220 567 -25 -57 129 173 89 258 204 16 231 15 98 -170 104 Capital account -25 -9 6 -4 41 -4 -42 45 2 16 -57 -7 -2 -1 45 -3 Financial account 2,571 230 561 -20 -98 133 214 44 256 189 73 238 18 99 -215 106 Direct investment 381 -539 500 3 -415 -46 -81 -39 63 32 443 90 -100 -255 -61 -40 Domestic abroad -949 -121 -128 104 -260 35 1 -121 25 -25 -8 4 -74 -189 3 26 Foreign in Slovenia 1,329 -419 628 -100 -155 -81 -82 82 38 57 451 86 -26 -66 -64 -65 Portfolio investment 572 4,625 1,949 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,106 503 -48 388 2,584 1,005 263 -118 864 Financial derivatives 46 -2 -90 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -65 -14 12 1 4 8 -1 -2 Other investment 1,551 -4,021 -1,817 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,063 -195 201 -759 -2,446 -888 20 -24 -663 Assets -427 -273 740 746 -161 -1,053 194 261 -576 576 479 -1,602 -152 -730 721 -656 Commercial credits -142 417 -234 62 166 -37 227 -228 -209 28 174 -326 70 141 -45 -6 Loans -325 -29 143 40 -91 -23 45 -357 497 17 -14 -110 48 -62 -77 -58 Currency and deposits 35 -587 736 638 -239 -1,004 18 848 -858 436 311 -1,172 -269 -808 838 -592 Other assets 4 -75 94 7 2 12 -96 -2 -6 95 8 6 -1 -2 5 0 Liabilities 1,978 -3,747 -2,556 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,324 381 -375 -1,238 -844 -736 751 -745 -7 Commercial credits -73 -459 391 -301 -105 25 -78 94 265 -63 94 208 -48 -32 -25 20 Loans 1,869 -2,941 -984 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -412 -189 -5 -378 -336 -328 349 -1,353 12 Deposits 190 -318 -1,934 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 -909 -755 -361 434 627 -10 Other liabilities -7 -29 -28 -5 6 -28 -2 72 -54 -1 -46 40 2 -1 5 -30 International reserves2 21 167 19 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 18 -11 9 -5 62 -11 -53 Statistical error -56 305 -158 329 -7 106 -122 18 -180 -141 145 -144 -19 -115 128 -20 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,241 1,783 1,811 442 461 407 473 403 456 442 510 439 171 141 149 147 Intermediate goods 10,760 8,090 9,951 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,235 2,542 2,544 2,630 2,837 646 652 698 722 Consumer goods 6,808 6,144 6,481 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,533 1,663 1,620 1,664 1,706 478 524 567 517 Import of investment goods 3,441 2,288 2,293 583 551 521 633 450 612 570 661 547 190 187 175 170 Intermediate goods 13,735 9,823 12,117 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,711 3,064 3,032 3,311 3,424 762 759 814 861 Consumer goods 5,870 5,004 5,470 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,290 1,355 1,351 1,475 1,377 437 416 408 434 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: "Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2011 10 12 10 11 12 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -20 -127 40 -44 -96 61 2 -54 -12 -68 -77 -16 -20 -107 40 39 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -20 -89 -27 -78 -133 7 -31 -96 -47 -141 -137 -183 -66 -111 -106 -76 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,228 1,327 1,648 1,468 1,565 1,660 1,604 1,305 1,728 1,657 1,699 1,491 1,536 1,603 1,882 1,685 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,247 1,416 1,675 1,546 1,698 1,654 1,634 1,401 1,775 1,798 1,836 1,673 1,602 1,714 1,988 1,761 125 111 114 85 70 81 68 85 100 106 93 58 89 114 116 72 75 107 80 119 147 447 389 367 322 373 298 285 342 353 352 366 431 421 408 370 336 401 350 324 402 409 322 278 253 237 303 216 218 258 253 245 273 373 332 293 254 264 326 243 243 283 262 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -54 -54 -44 -48 -44 -39 -51 -52 -55 -51 -54 -52 -61 -60 -42 -62 43 44 45 107 69 67 65 77 75 82 84 75 74 73 75 75 82 60 61 86 65 109 123 108 90 134 121 119 121 123 126 122 126 126 128 126 129 134 120 121 128 126 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -27 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 42 143 -1 -16 70 30 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 55 82 79 116 88 67 100 123 231 84 129 164 113 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 73 107 78 91 82 91 92 81 88 85 146 94 83 -66 92 95 -7 85 54 79 -44 132 15 111 124 -36 116 110 -173 79 -153 104 280 11 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 3 -63 -9 1 1 -2 -64 91 94 -32 153 61 81 -99 130 19 107 132 -32 89 107 -176 142 -144 103 279 13 27 -34 -17 -89 25 30 -47 -21 2 25 36 52 47 -67 105 253 86 -75 -9 174 92 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -7 -76 -38 -23 23 25 3 5 -33 -26 17 2 -54 22 35 -4 3 -18 8 -126 36 36 29 16 25 2 11 49 42 -34 131 236 84 -21 -31 139 96 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -446 195 607 -201 98 82 -27 -102 69 182 137 1,136 -207 1,655 -362 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 1 5 5 -2 -4 7 0 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,375 569 -257 -500 275 30 7 -44 238 -86 -600 -72 -1,212 305 -1,539 270 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 150 64 47 -10 -628 62 711 -197 62 -162 -613 1,254 -1,141 376 -837 70 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -3 -42 -183 -36 -87 -86 -9 198 -161 -101 -67 341 -223 27 -131 -86 72 -37 -8 48 5 -55 30 -332 418 17 63 128 4 -115 -36 1 21 -88 35 -56 13 556 -968 292 -367 93 214 71 562 -399 -545 86 584 -471 324 -11 -542 865 -821 318 -669 131 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -14 0 9 73 13 -13 -5 26 -9 -4 19 11 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,525 505 -304 -490 904 -32 -704 154 176 75 13 -1,326 -71 -71 -702 200 -110 116 88 80 -246 -87 69 112 55 128 83 -31 -184 152 140 62 -107 -31 60 179 142 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -39 -18 -355 -276 328 -241 -38 -20 53 -240 245 -384 -92 -105 -139 -227 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 22 -8 -769 284 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 10 17 -5 -7 -34 30 -17 27 2 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -34 48 4 -88 80 -172 -126 89 -104 -42 249 -63 174 3 -320 -50 110 150 167 154 151 116 120 167 142 155 158 159 125 159 164 170 176 126 141 172 N/A 552 751 782 730 581 657 725 853 803 856 883 878 713 952 920 927 783 889 904 1,044 N/A 392 572 540 578 502 445 473 615 513 543 607 554 458 607 558 591 515 510 545 651 N/A 154 197 218 208 207 122 149 180 213 218 180 179 148 243 188 226 247 148 172 227 N/A 711 886 913 937 799 794 906 1,010 956 1,068 1,040 1,039 888 1,106 1,153 1,128 1,030 1,030 1,103 1,291 N/A 381 441 447 433 413 362 395 533 430 462 463 452 420 479 496 536 443 421 450 506 N/A 8 9 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2008 2009 2010 2009 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 68 160 138 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 Central government (S. 1311) 2,162 3,497 3,419 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 212 376 526 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 Households (S. 14, 15) 7,827 8,413 9,282 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,149 21,704 21,648 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,815 2,680 2,496 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,666 5,302 5,812 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 32,113 34,731 35,991 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 In foreign currency 2,370 1,895 1,843 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 Securities, total 3,346 5,345 5,349 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 23,129 27,965 26,765 23,563 24,486 24,334 25,649 26,021 26,576 26,207 25,956 26,950 26,861 26,932 Overnight 6,605 7,200 8,155 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,971 10,408 8,192 12,044 12,776 12,359 13,604 13,703 12,647 11,167 10,667 11,332 11,109 10,917 With agreed maturity -long-term 4,157 9,788 10,336 4,575 4,761 4,859 4,907 4,901 6,212 7,630 7,749 8,000 8,257 8,396 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,396 569 82 529 528 507 528 541 554 548 529 539 555 591 Deposits in foreign currency, total 490 434 463 505 502 492 488 495 492 480 463 463 458 453 Overnight 215 238 285 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 With agreed maturity -short-term 198 141 121 213 222 211 209 197 199 195 178 171 169 142 With agreed maturity -long-term 41 45 55 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 36 10 2 8 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 5 5 7 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.46 0.28 0.21 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 4.30 2.51 1.82 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.77 6.43 5.53 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.62 6.28 5.75 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.63 1.23 0.81 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 6-month rates 4.72 1.44 1.08 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.58 0.37 0.19 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 6-month rates 2.69 0.50 0.27 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 2011 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 99 76 76 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 541 532 530 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,022 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,648 21,794 21,777 21,774 21,782 21,714 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,496 2,453 2,401 2,371 2,350 2,341 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,812 5,674 5,742 6,504 5,179 5,275 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,929 35,493 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,991 35,989 36,004 36,709 35,736 35,811 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,349 5,269 5,271 5,475 5,043 5,008 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27929 27,077 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,765 27,628 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7976 7,934 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 10,408 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 8,674 8377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,192 8,814 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 9,788 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 11,196 11401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,336 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 569 577 532 504 525 483 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 23 22 30 434 426 438 436 450 496 705 465 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 449 444 459 238 240 241 250 270 299 513 283 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 284 286 295 141 133 137 127 121 130 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 113 107 111 45 48 52 55 55 59 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 51 50 52 10 5 8 4 4 8 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 - 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 - 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.4 5.25 - 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.25 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 - - 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 8 1 9 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,339.2 14,408.0 14,794.0 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,601.7 1,182.6 1,091.2 Current revenues 14,792.3 13,639.5 13,771.5 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,365.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 Tax revenues 13,937.4 12,955.4 12,848.4 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 1,087.7 997.1 Taxes on income and profit 3,442.2 2,805.1 2,490.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 233.6 210.4 Social security contributions 5,095.0 5,161.3 5,234.5 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 417.3 418.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258.0 28.5 28.1 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 1.7 1.9 Taxes on property 214.9 207.0 219.7 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 34.6 17.4 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,805.3 4,660.2 4,780.7 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 395.4 343.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120.1 90.5 90.7 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 5.1 4.7 Other taxes 1.8 2.9 4.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 0.1 0.4 Non-tax revenues 854.9 684.1 923.0 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 294.9 209.7 69.8 75.1 Capital revenues 117.3 106.5 175.7 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.5 6.4 4.7 Grants 10.4 11.1 12.6 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.8 Transferred revenues 53.9 54.3 109.5 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.1 0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 596.5 724.7 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.8 18.4 13.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15,441.7 16,368.2 16,692.7 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.7 1,264.6 1,252.9 Current expenditures 6,557.5 6,800.8 6,960.4 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,899.5 535.4 503.7 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,578.9 3,911.9 3,912.4 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 966.5 318.1 311.7 Expenditures on goods and services 2,527.5 2,510.3 2,512.4 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.6 213.2 183.6 Interest payments 335.2 336.1 488.2 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.2 312.4 1.7 6.0 Reserves 116.0 42.5 47.4 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 2.4 2.4 Current transfers 6,742.2 7,339.4 7,628.5 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.0 570.0 583.1 Subsidies 476.5 597.9 581.9 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.1 22.6 36.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,619.2 6,024.5 6,277.7 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.1 496.7 487.0 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598.3 678.1 728.8 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.3 161.2 49.6 52.9 Current transfers abroad 48.2 38.9 40.1 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 3.6 1.1 6.7 Capital expenditures 1,255.5 1,294.1 1,310.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.9 101.9 108.1 Capital transfers 458.6 494.6 396.4 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.1 28.1 35.1 Payments to the EU budget 427.9 439.3 396.8 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 29.1 22.8 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,898.7 - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2009 2010 2011 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.5 1,183.6 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,707.1 1,205.6 1,118.3 1,277.8 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,047.8 1,116.0 993.6 1,062.1 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,110.0 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,388.4 1,147.1 1,045.1 1,173.4 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 1,027.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.7 1,094.8 950.0 1,111.1 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 114.1 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 268.6 215.1 208.1 212.1 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 432.7 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 491.6 437.7 424.6 438.4 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 24.7 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 15.1 7.4 8.3 8.3 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 444.4 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 440.2 424.5 299.4 441.6 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 54.3 57.3 77.7 53.8 62.1 58.2 61.2 56.2 60.1 83.0 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 160.8 52.3 95.1 62.2 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.9 7.3 5.3 5.3 9.4 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 83.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 100.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.5 45.1 67.9 12.0 26.3 49.5 61.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 231.8 54.1 70.0 99.7 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.3 1,372.1 1,355.7 1,322.7 1,464.5 1,335.4 1,302.9 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,793.9 1,418.9 1,408.3 1,364.5 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.0 631.6 643.6 613.9 594.4 548.9 529.5 529.0 578.4 557.2 543.8 670.0 638.8 636.9 623.9 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.6 315.2 324.6 313.9 377.2 321.5 319.7 324.8 319.0 329.2 322.8 328.0 325.9 315.9 324.7 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.3 206.8 193.4 211.9 219.6 203.2 200.5 183.9 203.2 216.9 323.0 202.3 183.8 199.4 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.8 88.6 134.6 89.2 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 13.2 22.0 2.5 10.5 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.2 612.0 753.2 629.9 608.7 590.1 612.0 624.5 633.0 716.1 673.8 628.0 640.2 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 39.3 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 98.1 97.4 46.4 27.4 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 509.1 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 526.6 521.5 532.4 552.1 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 59.0 59.4 64.9 58.2 59.0 89.1 53.5 48.8 58.9 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.4 1.9 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.6 67.2 86.7 108.2 99.7 113.2 116.1 161.6 306.6 58.8 50.7 59.4 82.3 68.2 109.4 19.1 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 52.0 25.6 22.1 34.3 40.7 68.1 68.2 12.5 11.5 18.1 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 30.8 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 33.0 35.1 81.3 22.9 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BIS - Bank of International Settlements, BS - Bank of Slovenia, COFOG - Classification of the Functions of Government, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, IAAD -International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MISSOC - Mutual Information System on Social Protection, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Oragnization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Real Unit Labour Costs, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMA - Securities Market Agency, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, ZEW - Zentrum fur Europaische Wirschaftsforschung. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamand air conditioning supply, E-Watersupply sewerage,waste managementand remediation activities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror June 2011, No. 6. Vol. XVII