STATISTIČNI URAD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE smrimmi eupmn m ® mmsBu© H mmum ISBN 86-81141-33-3 PROJEKCIJE PREBIVALSTVA REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE 1995 - 2020 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 1995 - 2020 Tisoč / Thousands 2400 LJUBLJANA, 1996 : STATISTIČNI URAD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE mmmsM. onmn ©n mn mpmim on ammm ISBN 86-81141-33-3 PROJEKCIJE PREBIVALSTVA REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE 1995 - 2020 Ponatis POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 1995 - 2020 Second impression Tisoč / Thousands 2200 — 1600 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 LJUBLJANA, 1996 AVTORJI AUTHORS 1. Statistični urad Republike Slovenije Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia dr. Milivoja ŠIRCELJ Nelka VERTOT 2. Evropski statistični urad (Eurostat) Statistical Office of the European Communities Harri CRUIJSEN Marja EXTERKATE CIP - Kataložni zapis o publikaciji Narodna in univerzitetna knjižnica, Ljubljana 314.8(497.12)"1995/2020" PROJEKCIJE prebivalstva Republike Slovenije: 1995-2020 = Population projections of the Republic of Slovenia : 1995-2020 / [avtorji Milivoja Šircelj in Nelka Vertot et al.j. Ljubljana: Zavod Republike Slovenije za statistiko, 1995 ISBN 86-81141-33-3 Na naslednjih straneh je iz tehničnih razlogov navedeno še ime Zavod Republike Slovenije za statistiko, veljavno do uveljavitve Zakona o državni statistiki (Ur. I. št. 45/95); ta med drugim določa tudi novo ime Statistični urad republike Slovenije. Izdal in tiskal Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba podatkov, v celoti ali deloma, dovoljena z navedbo vira - Odgovarja direktor Tomaž Banovec - Urednica Nelka Vertot - Lektor za slovenski jezik Dejan Černigoj - Lektorica za angleški jezik Cita Stele - Prevajalka v angleški jezik Cilka Demšar - Vsebinska redakcija: Ana Antončič, Milivoja Šircelj, Nelka Vertot - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Oblikovanje naslovnice Anton Rojc - Oblikovanje grafov: Nelka Vertot, Jure Jakopič - Računalniški prelom KAMIS design - Tiskano v 300 izvodih, 1995- Ponatis v 500 izvodih, 1996 - Po mnenju Ministrstva za kulturo Republike Slovenije, št. 415-150/92 mb z dne 31.3.1992, se plačuje 5 odstotni davek od prometa proizvodov po 1. odstavku tarifne številke 3 Tarife prometnega davka - Informacije daje INDOK, tel.: 061/216-951,061/12 55 322, faks 061/216-932 Prepared and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used, in whole or in part, provided the source is acknowledged - Director Tomaž Banovec - Editor Nelka Vertot - Editor for Slovene language: Dejan Černigoj - Editor for english language Cita Stele - Translator for English language - Revision of contents: Ana Antončič, Milivoja Šircelj, Nelka Vertot - Technical Editor Anton Rojc -Entire outward appearance Anton Rojc - Graphs: Nelka Vertot, Jure Jakopič - PC/Computer processing KAMIS design - First published in 1995, 300 copies -Second impression in 1996, 500 copies - In the opinion of the Ministry for Culture of the Republic of Slovenia, l\lo. •*#15-150192 mb of March 31, 1992, a 5% tax shall be paid - Information is given by the Information and Documentation Center of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, telephone: + 386 61/216-951, +386 61112 55 322, Fax +386 61/216-932 46984192 ISBN 86-81141-33-3 STATISTIČNI URAD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE PREDGOVOR Pred vami je publikacija “Projekcije prebivalstva Republike Slovenije 1995-2020”. To je druga tovrstna publikacija Zavoda Republike Slovenije za statistiko. Svoje prve projekcije, “Projekcije prebivalstva SR Slovenije 1986-2006", je Zavod objavil leta 1990. Po takratnih načrtih naj bi jih obnovili vsaka tri leta, skladno z najnovejšimi demografskimi spremembami pri nas. Vendar se je zaradi izredno dinamičnih sprememb v družbi in novih nalog, ki jih je Zavod ob osamosvojitvi države prevzel, izdelava teh projekcij zavlekla v leto 1994. Projekcije prebivalstva Republike Slovenije 1995-2020 smo izdelali ob pomoči in v sodelovanju s Statističnim zavodom Evropske unije, Eurostatom, v okviru regionalnega programa PHARE. Prvi del projekta je namenjen izdelavi projekcij za državo Slovenijo,drugi del pa predvideva pripravo projekcij za manjše teritorialne enote naše države.Teh teritorialnih enot še nismo definirali. Pri izdelavi projekcij zanje smo zaradi oblikovanja novih lokalnih skupnosti pričakovali dodatne težave. Že priprava projekcij za nekdanje občine (62) je bila težka naloga, ker so po številu prebivalstva večinoma premajhne za izdelavo projekcij po starosti in spolu, načrt izdelave projekcij za novih 147 občin pa je nalogo še bolj zapletel. Zavod bo moral zato za teritorialno bolj strukturirane projekcije oblikovati posebne statistične teritorialne enote, podobne v Evropski uniji veljavnim NUTS-om (Nomenclature des Unitees Territoriales Statistiques) ali po naše “nomenklatura teritorialnih enot". Eurostat je zagotovil tehnično podporo za izvedbo naloge v obliki posebnega programskega paketa MUDEA, avtorja Fransa Willekensa z Univerze v Groningenu. Namenjen je izdelavi državnih in regionalnih projekcij. Doslej so ga v Eurostatu uporabili pri izdelavi projekcij držav Evropske unije in držav Efte. Poleg pomoči pri izpeljavi tehničnega dela zastavljene naloge, nam je sodelovanje z Eurostatovimi strokovnjaki nudilo možnosti za izmenjavo mnenj in plodne razprave o možnem bodočem razvoju prebivalstva Slovenije, predvsem z vidika trenutnih demografskih dogajanj v drugih evropskih državah. Za oblikovanje hipotez o tem, kako se bodo pri nas v prihodnosti spreminjale umrljivost, rodnost in selivnost, smo znanje Eurostatovih in zavodovih strokovnjakov oplemenitili z mnenji tistih ljudi, ki se pri nas že več let pri svojem delu srečujejo oz. ukvarjajo tudi s prebivalstveno problematiko. Z odgovori na zastavljena vprašanja so nam pisno posredovali svoje poglede na razvoj prebivalstva Republike Slovenije v prihodnosti, kar smo v ustrezni meri upoštevali pri dokončnem oblikovanju hipotez za naše projekcije. Pri pripravi projekcij, katerih rezultate vam predstavljamo v publikaciji, sta kot predstavnika Eurostata sodelovala g. Harri Cruijsen in ga. Marja Exterkate ter ga. Vojka Šircelj in ga. Nelka Vertot z Zavoda Republike Slovenije za statistiko. Poleg teh so, v pripravo potrebnih podatkov za projekcije, vložili veliko truda in precej svojega časa tudi nekateri drugi delavci Eurostata in Zavoda, predvsem vsi delavci našega Oddelka za demografske statistike. Za sodelovanje in pomoč prav vsem iskrena hvala. PREFACE The present publication Population projections of the Republic of Slovenia 1995-2020 is the second of its kind published by Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia published its first projections - Population projections of the Socialist Republic of Slovenia 1986-2006 - in 1990. According to the plan they should have been renewed every three years in accordance with the latest demographic changes in our country. However, due to new tasks given to Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia after independence, any further projections had been delayed until 1994. Population projections of the Republic of Slovenia 1995-2020 have been made in cooperation with Statistical Office of the European Union, Eurostat within the framework the PHARE program project. The first part was intended for making projections for the entire Slovenia, whereas the second part foresees preparing projections for smaller territorial units of our country. These territorial units have not been defined yet. Since at the time of preparing projections for them (Slovenian) local communities were under reconstruction, we anticipated additional difficulties. Projections for the former (62) municipalities had already been a demanding task because their population was mostly too small to allow projections by age and sex, and designing projections for the 147 new made it even more complicated. To make territorially more structured projections, the Office will have to contrive specific statistical territorial units similar to the European Union NUTS (Nomenclature des Unitees Territoriales Statistiques). To accomplish this task Eurostat has provided technical assistance by means of a special programme package MUDEA, written by Frans Willekens from Groningen University. It is intended for making country and regional projections. Eurostat has used it at preparing projections of European Union and EFTA member countries. Besides help with accomplishing the technical part of the task, the cooperation with Eurostat experts has also enabled the exchange of opinions and fruitful discussions about possible future trends in the population of Slovenia, especially from the point of view of the current demographic developments in other European countries. To hypothesize the future changes in mortality, fertility and migration in our country, we have enriched the knowledge of Eurostat and Statistical Office experts with the opinions of those people who have been dealing with the issues of population for many years. They answered the set questions in writing and thus expressed their views on the development of population of the Republic of Slovenia in the future. This was taken into consideration when final hypotheses for our projections were made. The projections (whose results are) presented in the publication were prepared jointly by Mr Harri Cruijsen and Ms Marja Exterkate as representatives of Eurostat, and Ms Vojka Šircelj and Ms Nelka Vertot from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Also some other Eurostat and Statistical Office employees, and, above all, all people from our Department of Demographic Statistics have put in a lot of effort and time to prepare the data necessary for the projections. I am deeply grateful for any cooperation and help. Tomaž Banovec Direktor Director 6j((MwA STATISTIČNA ZNAMENJA IN OKRAJŠAVE ni pojava ni podatka ( ) nepopoln ali ocenjen podatek 0 povprečje 1) označba opombe pod tabelo * popravljen podatek 0,0 in 0 podatek je manjši od 0,5 dane merske enote EXPLANATION OF SIGNS AND ABBREVIATIONS no occurrence of event data not available ( ) incomplete data or estimate 0 average 1) footnote * corrected data 0,0 in 0 magnitude not zero, but less than half of unit employed Sii VSEBINA CONTENTS PREDGOVOR PREFACE............................................................................................3 VSEBINA CONTENTS...........................................................................................5 UVOD INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................7 DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS........................................................................................9 VIRI PODATKOV DATA SOURCE.......................................................................................10 DEMOGRAFSKI KAZALNIKI, UPORABLJENI PRI IZDELAVI PROJEKCIJ IN NAČINI NJIHOVEGA IZRAČUNAVANJA DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS USED FOR PROJECTIONS ELABORATION AND MODES OF THEIR COMPUTATION............12 NOVEJŠI DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ V REPUBLIKI SLOVENIJI RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA........................................14 OBLIKOVANJE HIPOTEZ FORMULATION OF ASSUMPTIONS........................................................................20 REZULTATI OUTCOMES..........................................................................................25 Tekst Text...........................................................................................25 Slike Figures........................................................................................28 Tabele Tables.........................................................................................47 1. Velike starostne skupine 1. Broad age groups.........................................................................47 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by age and sex Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by age and sex 2. Petletne starostne skupine 2. Five-year age groups.....................................................................................................71 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by age and sex Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by age and sex 3. Leta starosti 3. Single years of age.......................................................................................................92 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by age and sex Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po starosti in spolu De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by age and sex SEZNAM TABEL LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................110 SEZNAM SLIK LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................115 UPORABLJENA LITERATURA BACKGROUND PAPERS..........................................................................119 Si i UVOD Izraz projekcija prebivalstva pomeni izračun prihodnjega števila in značilnosti prebivalstva, ki je zasnovan na hipotezah o bodočem razvoju rodnosti, umrljivosti in selivnosti. Običajno ločimo med projekcijo in prognozo. Prva je rezultat različnih hipotetičnih predpostavk, medtem ko druga vsebuje elemente napovedi. Kljub temu, da projekcije predstavljajo le možni bodoči razvoj števila in sestave prebivalstva, je izdelava dobrih projekcij prebivalstva strokovno in tehnično zelo zahtevna naloga. Za njeno izdelavo je potrebno: - veliko kvalitetnih, usklajenih in primerno urejenih statističnih podatkov, ki so osnova za analizo dosedanjega demografskega razvoja. - dobro poznavanje razvojnih smernic tako območja, za katerega izdelujemo projekcije, kakor tudi širše; - nekaj hrabrosti, ki izhaja iz strokovne podkovanosti v demografiji - primerna programska oprema. Zaradi vsega navedenega je izdelava projekcij prebivalstva običajno ena izmed nalog državnih statističnih ustanov. Zavod Republike Slovenije za statistiko je izdelavo projekcij prebivalstva za državo prvič vključil v svoj program leta 1984. Prve projekcije je izdelal leta 1990, druge pa zdaj, leta 1995. Vsebina projekcij je lahko različna, vendar je osnovna vedno projekcija prebivalstva po starosti in spolu. Različne človekove aktivnosti (delo, šolanje, razvedrilo, rojevanje itd.) in potrebe (stanovanje, prehrana, prevoz, zdravstvena oskrba itd.) se namreč najbolj značilno razlikujejo prav po starosti in spolu. Zavod je v svojem programu dela predvidel tudi izdelavo t. i. izvedenih projekcij (projekcije aktivnega prebivalstva, projekcije šolajočega se prebivalstva itd.), vendar ne kot prednostno nalogo. Projekcijam po starosti in spolu za Republiko Slovenijo bodo namreč najprej sledile Projekcije za manjše teritorialne enote, in šele nato različne “izvedene" projekcije. V preteklosti so v Sloveniji projekcije prebivalstva po starosti in spolu pripravljale različne inštitucije (ekonomsko, socialno, zaposlitveno, izobraževalno itd. usmerjene) v glavnem le za svoje specifične potrebe. Zato rezultati teh projekcij niso bili medsebojno primerljivi in tudi ne dostopni vsem, ki bi jih želeli uporabljati. Za tiste, ki so projekcije prebivalstva po spolu in starosti potrebovali za izdelavo svojih “izvedenih" projekcij, je bilo to zelo neugodno, kar je bilo posebej vidno, kadar so želeli različne izvedene projekcije med seboj primerjati. Da bi se v prihodnosti izognili podobnim problemom, želi Zavod z objavljanjem projekcij po starosti in spolu ponuditi širši javnosti možnost uporabe enotne izhodiščne osnove za načrtovanje prihodosti na različnih področjih življenja in dela. Ocena projekcij prebivalstva Republike Slovenije 1986-2006 Projekcije prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, izdelane na Zavodu Republike Slovenije za statistiko in izdane leta 1990, so bile pripravljene za obdobje 1986-2006. Izhodišče za njihovo izdelavo je bilo število prebivalstva Slovenije dne 1.1. 1986, povzeto po Centralnem registru prebivalstva. Izdelane so bile za stalno prebivalstvo in za stalno prebivalstvo brez zdomcev. Za vsako skupino prebivalstva so bile pripravljene tri variante bodočega razvoja umrljivosti, tri variante bodočega razvoja rodnosti in dve varianti bodočega razvoja selivnosti. Kombinacije vseh treh hipotez so dale 18 projekcij. Leta 1987 se nam je zdela najverjetnejša tista, ki je predvidevala: - tendenčno umrljivost (leta 2005 naj bi bilo pričakovano trajanje življenja za moške 69,2 leti, za ženske pa 77,9 let; INTRODUCTION Population projection implies computation of future population size and characteristics based on assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Usually a distinction is made between a projection and a forecast. The former is a result of different hypothetical assumptions while the latter implies elements of prediction. Despite the fact that projections indicate only a possible development of future population size and structures, the elaboration of good population projections is professionally and technically a very demanding task. Making projections requires: - a great number of accurate, harmonised and appropriately arranged statistical data, which are the basis for the analysis of previous demographic developments; - a good knowledge of the trends of the area the projections are being made for, as well as wider; - some bravery which arises from professional proficiency in demography; - suitable software programme. In view of the above stated, making population projections is usually one of the tasks of state statistical offices. Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia included population projections for the country for the first time in 1984 in its programme. The first projections were made in 1990, and the second now, in 1995. The content of projections may differ, but the basis is always the population projection by age and sex. Namely, different human activities (work, education, entertainment, giving birth, etc.) and needs (housing, food, transport, medical care, etc.) differ most significantly by age and sex. In its programme Statistical Office anticipated also making the so called derived projections (labour force projections, projections of school enrolment, etc.), but not as its priority task. Population projections of the Republic of Slovenia by age and sex will be first followed by projections for smaller territorial units, and only then by different derived projections. In the past different institutions (economy, socially, employment, education, etc. oriented) in Slovenia were preparing population projections by age and sex and mainly for their specific needs. Thus those projections were neither comparable nor accessible to those who would have liked to use them. This was very inconvenient for those who needed population projections by age and sex to make their own derived projections, which was especially evident when they tried to compare different derived projections. In order to avoid similar problems in the future, Statistical Office wants to offer the possibility of using a unified starting base for future planning in different fields of life and work, by publishing population projections by age and sex. Evaluation of population projections of the Republic of Slovenia 1986-2006 Population projections of the Republic of Slovenia, made by Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia and published in 1990, were prepared for the period from 1986 to 2006. The starting point was the number of inhabitants of Slovenia on 1st January 1986, according to Central Population Register. They were made for de jure population and for de jure population excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them. For each population group three variants of the future trends in mortality, three variants of the future trend in fertility and two variants of the future trend in migration were prepared. - nizko rodnost (leta 2005 naj bi ženska rodila v poprečju 1,75 otroka); - konstanten selitveni prirast (4000 letno). Zato smo jo imenovali prognoza. Primerjava prognoze z dejanskim številom prebivalstva po pretečenem petletnem obdobju je pokazala, da je dejanskemu razvoju dobro sledila prvi dve leti, nato pa ne več. Predvidevala je preveliko naraščanje števila prebivalstva (preveč umrlih, preveč rojenih in prevelik selitveni prirast). Pričakovano trajanje življenja za ženske in za moške se je podaljševalo hitreje kot je predvidevala prognoza. Ta je bila zasnovana na predpostavkah svetovne zdravstvene organizacije o povprečnem letnem podaljševanju pričakovanega trajanja življenja za približno 0,14 leta letno, kar se je ujemalo s trendom za Slovenijo v predhodnih 15-ih letih. Tako izračunane vrednosti za leto 2005 pa smo dosegli že leta 1991. Hipoteze o rodnosti so predvidevale postopno povečevanje letnih kazalnikov rodnosti zaradi prelaganja rojstev mlajših generacij v višje starosti žensk. Vendar je bil časovni interval, potreben za ponoven dvig vrednosti nekaterih starostnospecifičnih koeficientov rodnosti prekratek. Predvidena vrednost selitvenega prirasta je bila previsoka. Gospodarska recesija je že v 2. polovici osemdesetih let postopno zmanjševala število priseljenih v Slovenijo, osamosvojitev leta 1991 pa je začasno ustavila priseljevanje in pospešila odseljevanje. Ne glede na opisane napake so te prve projekcije pokazale na bližajoči se negativni naravni prirast in na zniževanje števila prebivalstva, če ne bi bilo presežka priselitev nad odselitvami. Negativni naravni prirast smo prvič zabeležili leta 1993, zmanjšanje števila prebivalstva pa že leta 1991. The combinations of ali assumptions produced 18 projections. In 1987 the most probable seemed the one which anticipated: - continuation of previous trends of mortality (in 2005 life expectancy for males supposed to be 69.2 years and for females 77.9 years; - low fertility (in 2005 a woman was supposed to give birth on average to 1.75 child) - constant net migration (4000 annually). This was the reason for calling it a forecast. After a five-year period the comparison of the forecast with the actual population size showed that it had followed the actual development only for the first two years. The anticipated increase of the population size was too high (too many deaths, too many births and too high net migration). Life expectancy for males and females was increasing faster than anticipated by the forecast. The forecast was based on World Health Organizations assumptions which assumes an average annual prolonging of life expectancy of about 0.14 per year, which corresponded with the trend for Slovenia in the preceding 15 years. However, the values for year 2005, which were computed in this way, reached already in 1991. The assumptions on fertility anticipated gradual increase of the annual fertility measures due to postponement of births to women's older ages. However, the time period, needed for the increase of the values of some age-specific fertility rates, was too short. The anticipated value of net migration was too high. Economic recession gradually decreased the number of immigrants already in the second half of the 1980-s, and the independence in 1991 even temporary stopped the immigration and accelerated the emigration. Irrespective of the described errors these first projections showed the approaching negative natural growth and decrease of the number of inhabitants, if immigrations had not been higher than emigrations. In 1993 there was a negative natural increase, whereas the number of inhabitants has been decreasing since 1991. DEFINICIJE Definicije so povzete po metodologiji slovenske statistike. Stalno prebivalstvo so vsi, ki imajo v nekem naselju stalno prebivališče, to pomeni, da v njem stalno živijo, ne glede na to, ali so v času statističnega opazovanja začasno odsotni. Prisotno prebivalstvo so vsi, ki so v trenutku statističnega opazovanja v določenem naselju, ne glede na to, kje je njihovo stalno prebivališče. Začasno prisotni so tisti, ki so v trenutku statističnega opazovanja v naselju, v katerem nimajo stalnega prebivališča. Začasno odsotni so tisti, ki v trenutku statističnega opazovanja niso v naselju v katerem imajo stalno prebivališče. Posebna skupina začasno odsotnih so zdomci. To so osebe, ki začasno delajo v tujini pri tujem delodajalcu ali samostojno (v svoji obrtni delavnici in podobno), ter njihovi družinski člani, ki z njimi živijo v tujini. Naselje je zemljepisna enota, ki jo oblikuje strnjena ali nestrnjena skupina stavb (mesto, trg, vas, industrijsko ali rudarsko naselje, zdravilišče in podobno), s skupnim imenom, lastnim sistemom oštevilčenja stavb ter določenim teritorialnim območjem. Stalno prebivališče je naselje, v katerem se oseba naseli z namenom, da v njem stalno živi ter to potrdi tudi z ustreznim administrativnim postopkom. Selitev je prostorski premik, pri katerem oseba spremeni svoje stalno prebivališče. Selivec je oseba, ki se seli. Priseljenec je oseba, ki se je priselila v naselje z namenom, da bi v njem stalno živela. Odseljenec je oseba, ki zapusti naselje dotedanjega stalnega prebivališča z namenom, da se stalno naseli v drugem naselju. Notranja selitevje prostorski premik selivca med naselji v Republiki Sloveniji (kadar je enota opazovanja Republika Slovenija). Zunanja selitevje prostorski premik selivca med naseljem v Republiki Slovenije in naseljem katerekoli druge države (kadar je enota opazovanja Republika Slovenija). Začasni begunec je v Republiki Sloveniji oseba, ki ima stalno prebivališče na območju nekdanje Jugoslavije (izven meja Republike Slovenije) in ga je bila prisiljena zapustiti zaradi vojne. Begunec je oseba, ki je zapustila državo, katere državljan je ali v kateri se je stalno naselila kot oseba brez državljanstva, da bi se izognila preganjanju zaradi svojega političnega prepričanja, kulturnega ali znanstvenega udejstvovanja ali narodnostne, rasne oziroma verske pripadnosti. Živorojeni otrok je vsak otrok, ki je takoj po rojstvu, ne glede na trajanje nosečnosti, pokazal znake življenja (dihanje, srčni utrip, trzanje mišic), čeprav le za krajši čas. Dojenček je vsak otrok, ki še ni dopolnil prvega leta starosti. Umrla oseba je oseba, pri kateri so, kadarkoli potem, ko je bila živorojena, trajno prenehali vsi znaki življenja. Starost je čas, ki ga je oseba preživela od rojstva do trenutka opazovanja (popis, anketa) oz. do opazovanega dogodka (sklenitev zakonske zveze, rojstvo 1. otroka, zaposlitev, smrt idr.). Običajno jo merimo v letih, lahko pa tudi v mesecih, dnevih ali celo urah. Opredelimo jo na dva načina: po dopolnjenih letih starosti in po letnici rojstva. Razvrstitvi sta skladni samo na začetku (1.1.) oz. na koncu (31.12.) vsakega koledarskega leta. Kadar ni posebej označeno, je starost prikazana v dopolnjenih letih starosti. DEFINITIONS Definitions are from the methodology of Slovene statistics. Permanent population are all persons with permanent residence in a locality, i.e. they live there permanently, irrespective of the fact that they were temporarily absent during the time of statistical observation. Present population are persons who are at a certain locality during the time of statistical observation, irrespective of their permanent residence. Temporary present population are persons who are during the time of statistical observation at a locality where they do not have permanent residence. Temporary absent population are persons who are during the time of statistical observation not at a locality of their permanent residence. A special group of the temporary absent population are persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them. These are persons who temporarily work abroad at a foreign employer or independently (in their own craft establishment and similar), and members of their families living with them. Locality is a geographic unit formed of serried or non-serried group of buildings (town, borough, village, industrial or mining settlement, health resort, and similar) with a common name, its own system of house numbering and a certain territorial area. Permanent residence is a locality where a person settles down with an intention to live there permanently and also confirms this with an appropriate administrative procedure. Migration is a spatial move of a person which involves a change of permanent residence. Migrant is a person who migrate. Immigrant, inmigrant is a person who has moved to a locality with an intention to live there permanently. Emigrant, outmigrant is a person who leaves the locality of their permanent residence with an intention to live at another locality permanently. Internal migration is a spatial move of a migrant between localities within the Republic of Slovenia (when the migration defining area is the Republic of Slovenia). External migration is a spatial move of a migrant from a locality in the Republic of Slovenia to a locality in another country (when the migration defining area is the Republic of Slovenia). Temporary refugee in the Republic of Slovenia is a person with permanent residence in the territory of former Yugoslavia (outside the Republic of Slovenia) which they were forced to leave due to war. Refugee is a person who has left the country of their citizenship or where a person lives permanently as a stateless person to avoid pursuit due to their political opinions, cultural of scientific work or due to ethnicity, race or religion. Live-born child is every child who showed any evidence of life, (such as: breathing, heart beating, muscle twitching) even for the briefest period of time after birth, regardless of duration of mother's pregnancy. Infant is a child under one year of age. Dead person is a person who ceased to show any evidence of life permanently any time after they had been live-born. Age is the period of time a person lived from their birth to the moment of observation (census, survey), or until the observed event (marriage, birth of the first child, employment, death, and other.). It is usually measured in years, but it is possible to measure it also in months, days or even hours. It is expressed in two ways: by completed years of age and by the year of birth. The two sortings are in accordance only at the beginning (1st January) or at the end of (31st December) each calendar year. If not specially stated, the age is shown in completed years. VIRI PODATKOV Izhodišče projekcij je bilo število prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu v začetku koledarskega leta 1992. To število je mogoče izračunati iz podatkov popisa prebivalstva 31. 3 .1991 ter podatkov vitalne in selitvene statistike (stanje 31. 3 .1991 + živorojeni + priseljeni - umrli - odseljeni po starosti in spolu od 1. 4. do 31.12. 1991) ali iz podatkov Centralnega registra prebivalstva Republike Slovenije (CRP) na dan 1.1. 1992. Odločili smo se za uporabo podatkov CRP-ja, ker si na ta način zagotovimo možnost sprotne (letne) primerjave projekcij s stanjem v CRP-ju. Podatki popisa 31. 3. 1991 in CRP-ja 31. 3. 1991 se namreč ne ujemajo. Za analizo dosedanjega razvoja prebivalstva Republike Slovenije smo uporabili podatke vitalne in selitvene statistike ter podatke popisov prebivalstva in CRP-ja. Podatke popisov in registra smo potrebovali za izračunavanje starostnospecifičnih koeficientov in iz njih izpeljanih sinteznih kazalnikov. Poleg podatkov, ki so objavljeni v zavodovih publikacijah smo uporabili tudi neobjavljene podatke Zavoda Republike Slovenije za statistiko. Nekatere podatke o zdomcih smo zbrali s posebno statistično raziskavo, ki je bila izvedena v sodelovanju z ustreznimi organi občinskih skupščin. Število prebivalstva po starosti in spolu V začetku leta 1992 je CRP vseboval podatke za vse tiste državljane SFR Jugoslavije, ki so imeli stalno prebivališče v Republiki Sloveniji, ne glede na to, ali so v Sloveniji dejansko živeli. Največja skupina oseb, ki so (bili) stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, a v njej ne živijo, so zdomci. Da bi mogli predvideti, kolikšno bo v prihodnosti število tistega dela prebivalstva, ki v naši državi nima samo stalnega prebivališča, ampak v njej tudi živi in dela, smo za eno skupino projekcij izhodiščno število prebivalstva zmanjšali za odgovarjajoče število zdomcev. Poleg tega smo podatke o številu prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu za začetek koledarskega leta potrebovali tudi za izračun različnih starostnospecifičnih koeficientov, ker smo podatke o srednjem številu prebivalstva (na dan 30. 6.) izračunali z aritmetično sredino stanja na začetku in koncu koledarskega leta. Za te podatke smo uporabili tri različne vire: - za obdobje 1986-1991 smo uporabili podatke CRP-ja ob koncu koledarskega leta (31. 12.) - za obdobje 1981-1985 smo prevzeli podatek ocen prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, ki jih je izdelal Zavod Republike Slovenije za statistiko (popis + živorojeni + priseljeni - umrli - odseljeni) za konec koledarskega leta; - za obdobje 1969-1980 pa smo ocene Zveznega zavoda za statistiko (popis + živorojeni - umrli) za sredino koledarskega leta preračunali na začetek koledarskega leta in ocenili številčnost enoletnih starostnih razredov za odprti razred “85 in več let". Uporaba različnih virov podatkov o številu in starostno-spolni sestavi prebivalstva povzroča neskladnost časovnih serij oziroma preskoke v letih prehoda iz enega v drugi vir. To smo pri analizi kazalnikov, izračunanih s pomočjo teh podatkov, upoštevali. Rodnost Analizo rodnosti smo zasnovali na vrednostih starostnospecifičnih koeficientov splošne rodnosti. Izračunali smo jih tako, da jih je bilo mogoče uporabiti za izračun poprečnega števila živorojenih otrok na eno žensko v koledarskih letih (celotna rodnost) in v generacijah (celotno potomstvo). Za obdobje 1988-1992 smo take koeficiente lahko izračunali iz osnovnih podatkov o živorojenih otrocih in ženskah v rodni dobi, DATA SOURCE The starting point of the projections was the size of population of the Republic of Slovenia by age and sex at the beginning of the calendar year 1992. This size can be computed on the basis of the data of the census on 31st March 1991 and the data of vital and migration statistics (population on 31st March 1991 + live-births + immigration - deaths - emigration by age and sex from 1st April to 31st December 1991), or on the basis of the data of Central Population Register of the Republic of Slovenia (CPR) on 1st January 1992. We decided to use the data of Central Population Register which enables current (annual) comparison of the projections with the data in Central Population Register. Namely, the data of the census on 31st March 1991 and those of Central Population Register on the same day are not matching. Vital and migration statistics data and data of the censuses and Central Population Register were used to analyse the development of the population of the Republic of Slovenia until now. Census data and register data were needed to calculate age-specific and outher indicators, derived from them. Besides the data, published in Statistical Office publications, also unpublished data of Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia were used. Some data on persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them were collected by a special statistical research, which was done in cooperation with the competent municipality bodies. Population by age and sex At the beginning of 1992 Central Population Register kept data for all the citizens of the Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia with permanent residence in the Republic of Slovenia, regardless of whether they actually lived in Slovenia or not. The largest group of persons who are (were) permanent residents of the Republic of Slovenia, but they do not live in Slovenia, are persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members od their families living with them. In order to be able to anticipate the future of population size living and working in Slovenia by age and sex, for one group of projections the starting number was reduced for the corresponding number of persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them. In addition, data on the population size of the Republic of Slovenia and its age and sex composition at the beginning of each calendar year were needed to compute different age-specific rates, as the data on the average population (on the day of 30th June) was computed by arithmetic mean of the stock data at the beginning and at the end of the year. Three different sources were used for these data: - for the period from 1986 to 1991 the Central Register data at the end of the calendar year (31st December); - for the period from 1981 to 1985 the estimation of the population of the Republic of Slovenia for the end of the calendar year made by Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (census + live-births + immigration - deaths - emigration); - for the period from 1969 to 1980 the estimations done by Federal Statistical Office (census + live-births - deaths) for the midyear were converted on the beginning of the calendar year, and the number of population in the one-year age groups for the open group “85 and more years" was estimated. Use of different sources of data on the size and the age and sex composition of the population causes discrepancy in time series and skippings in years when the change from one source to another is made. That was considered when analysing the indicators, computed on the basis of these data. za starejše obdobja (1953-1987) pa so enoletne starostnospecifične koledarske koeficiente splošne rodnosti s pomočjo posebnega programskega paketa, ki ga je razvil g. G. Calot, v Eurostatu preračunali v generacijsko-koledarske koeficiente. Poprečno starost mater ob rojstvu otrok smo izračunali za koledarska leta in za generacije iz absolutnih podatkov o številu živorojenih otrok in številu žensk v rodni dobi. Umrljivost Tako kot analizo rodnosti smo tudi analizo umrljivosti zasnovali na vrednostih starostnospecifičnih koeficientov umrljivosti. Za obdobje 1971-1992 smo jih izračunali na enak način kot za rodnost (generacijsko-koledarski koeficienti). Za obdobje pred letom 1971 pa smo, od leta 1953 naprej, uporabljali popolne in skrajšane tablice umrljivosti. Selivnost Podatke o selitvah smo črpali iz dveh virov: popisov prebivalstva in tekoče selitvene statistike. Razen za podatke o zdomcih, smo uporabljali podatke tekoče selitvene statistike. Do leta 1982 smo iz nje uporabili samo podatke o letnem številu priseljenih in odseljenih, od 1982 so 1991 pa tudi podatke o različnih značilnostih selivcev. Nas je zanimala predvsem njihova starostna sestava. Ker smo hipoteze o prihodjih selitvah med Republiko Slovenijo in tujino zasnovali na absolutnih podatkih, natančneje na vrednostih podatkov o selitvenem prirastu / padcu (neto selitve), relativnih selitvenih kazalnikov nismo računali. Fertility Fertility analysis was based on the values of age-specific general fertility rates. These were calculated so that it was possible to use them to calculate the average number of live-born children per one woman in calendar years (total fertility - TFR) and in cohorts (completed fertility - CFR). For the period from 1988 to 1992 it was possible to compute these rates on the basis of absolute values on live-born children and women in reproductive ages. For the older periods of time (from 1953 to 1987) Eurostat calculated one-year age-specific period rates of general fertility into cohort - period rates with the help of a special software package, developed by Mr. G. Calot. The mean age of mothers at childbirth was computed for calendar years and for cohorts on the basis of the absolute numbers of live-born children and the number of women at reproductive ages. Mortality Similar as the analysis of fertility, the analysis of mortality was based on the values of age-specific mortality rates. For the period from 1971 to 1992 it was computed in the same way as fertility rates (cohort - period rates). For the period previous to 1971, from 1953 onwards, complete or abridged mortality tables were used. Migration Data on migration was obtained from two sources: censuses and current migration statistics. Apart from the data on persons who have lived abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them, current migration statistics data was used. Until 1982 current migration statistics could be used only for the data on the number of immigrants and emigrants, whereas from 1982 until 1991 it was usable also for the data on different characteristics of migrants. We were especially interested in their age structure. As the hypotheses on future migrations between the Republic of Slovenia and other countries base on absolute data, to be more precise, on the values of migration increasejdecrease (net migration), migration indices were not computed. DEMOGRAFSKI KAZALNIKI, UPORABLJENI PRI IZDELAVI PROJEKCIJ IN NAČINI NJIHOVEGA IZRAČUNAVANJA Za analizo demografskega razvoja in za pripravo hipotez, potrebnih pri izdelavi projekcij prebivalstva, lahko uporabljamo različne demografske kazalnike. Mi smo pri pripravi projekcij kot osnovne uporabljali starostnospecifične koeficiente (age specific rates, taux par ages) poleg teh pa tudi povprečne starosti. Koeficient je relativno število, ki izraža razmerje med dvema raznovrstnima, a vsebinsko povezanima podatkoma v danem časovnem obdobju. V demografiji je običajno koeficient razmerje med številom dogodkov pri ljudeh določene starosti ter srednjim številom prebivalstva iste starosti, pomnoženo s 1000. Praviloma je naravnan na eno koledarsko leto. Demografske koeficiente lahko opredelimo v okviru koledarskih let ali pa v okviru generacij. Mi smo poleg običajnih koledarskih koeficientov uporabljali tudi koledarsko-generacijske. DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS USED FOR PROJECTIONS ELABORATION AND MODES OF THEIR COMPUTATION Different demographic indicators may be used for the analysis of demographic development and to prepare hypotheses, necessary when preparing population projections. Age-specfific rates as well as mean ages were used as the basic ones for our projections. Rate is a relative number, which shows the ratio between two different, but substantially connected data in a given period of time. In demography the rate is ussually defined us the number of events which accured to persons of a given age and the average population of the same age per 1000. It is usually set for one year. Demographic rates may be defined within the framework of calendar years, or within the framework of cohorts. Besides period rates we used also period-cohort ones. Slika 1: Različni načini opazovanja demografskih dogodkov Figure 1: Different manners of observing demographic events koledarsko opazovanje period obsen/ation x+1 x-------------------------- t t+1 koledarsko-generacijsko opazovanje period-cohort observation t t+1 generacijsko opazovanje cohort observation t t+1 t+2 Poprečna starost je tehtana aritmetična sredina vrste s starostjo opredeljenih dogodkov (sklenitev zakonske zveze, rojstvo otroka, rojstvo prvega otroka itd.). Izračunana je s pomočjo absolutnih vrednosti. Pri izračunu upoštevamo kot uteži sredine starostnih razredov: Mean age is a weighted average of the set of events defined by actual age, (marriage, childbirth, birth of the first child, etc.), the weights being the mid-point of each age group. x= X(x+°,5)Px Rodnost Fertility Natalitetaje razmerje med številom živorojenih otrok v koledarskem Natality, crude birth rate is defined as the number of live-births letu in srednjim številom prebivalstva v tem letu: in a year per 1,000 midyear population. N n=—-1000 P JAt/ 71 i Splošni koeficient (splošne) rodnosti je razmerje med številom General fertility rate is defined as the number of live-births per živorojenih otrok v koledarskem letu in srednjim številom žensk 1,000 women of childhearing age. v rodni dobi (15 do 49 let) v istem letu: f= N -1000 Pf, 15-49 Starostnospecifični koeficient (splošne) rodnosti je razmerje Age-specific (general) birth rate is defined as the number of med številom živorojenih otrok, ki so jih rodile ženske določene live birth to women of a given age per 1,000 women in that starosti, in srednjim številom teh žensk: age. fx=-^M000 Pf.x Celotna rodnost je poprečno število živorojenih otrok na eno žensko v koledarskem letu. Izračunamo jo tako, da seštejemo vse starostnospecifične koeficiente splošne rodnosti v koledarskem letu: Total fertility rate is the average number of live-born children per one woman in a given year. It is calculated by adding all age-specific general birth rates in a calendar year: 15 Celotno potomstvo je poprečno število živorojenih otrok na eno žensko v generaciji. Izračunamo ga tako, da seštejemo vse starostnospecifične koeficiente splošne rodnosti v eni generaciji: Completed fertility is the average number of (live-born) children ever born per one woman in a given birth cohort. It is calculated by adding all age-specific general birth rates in a given birth cohort. 49 D=Ifx 15 Umrljivost Mortality Mortaliteta je razmerje med številom umrlih v koledarskem letu Mortality, crude death rate is defined as the number of deaths in srednjim številom prebivalstva v istem letu: in a year per 1,000 of the midyear population. M „„„„ m=—1000 P Starostnospecifični koeficient umrljivosti je razmerje med številom umrlih določene starosti in srednjim številom prebivalstva enake starosti v koledarskem letu. Običajno ga računamo za vsak spol posebej: Mf x rrif x =—4—1000 P>,x Pričakovano (srednje) trajanje življenja je razmerje med vsoto preostalih let življenja oseb, starih x let in številom teh oseb v starosti x let. Izračunamo ga lahko za koledarska leta ali pa za generacije. Če ga izračunamo za eno ali več koledarskih let, predstavlja srednje število let, ki bi jih doživela oseba stara x let, če bi umrljivost ostala enaka kot v letih, za katera so izdelane tablice umrljivosti. Običajno ga računamo za vsak spol posebej: Ikx _J<_ Age-specific (general) mortality rate is defined as the number of deaths of persons of a given age during a year per 1,000 of the midyear population of that age. ■ m x Life expectancy is the average additional number of years lived beyond age x by those who reach age x. It may be calculated for period or for generations. If it is calculated for a period (one or more calendar years), it represents the average number of years which would be completed by a person aged x years, if mortality was the same as in the years the mortality tables were made for. it is usually calculated for each sex separately: (0 ^Lm,x Wx NOVEJŠI DEMOGRAFSKI RAZVOJ V REPUBLIKI SLOVENIJI Poznavanje in razumevanje novejšega demografskega razvoja je pri pripravi hipotez za projekcije pomembno predvsem iz dveh razlogov: - struktura prebivalstva po starosti in spolu, ki je izhodišče projekcij, je odraz razvoja umrljivosti, rodnosti in selivnosti v preteklih letih, - možne poti razvoja v prihodnosti je mogoče začrtati samo v kontekstu najnovejših sprememb. Rodnost Rodnost v Sloveniji upada že 100 let. V tem času se je rodno obnašanje prebivalstva Slovenije, tako kot v večini evropskih držav, bistveno spremenilo. Največja sprememba je v tem, da rodnost ne zadošča več za enostavno obnavljanje generacij. Zniževanje rodnosti seveda ni potekalo enakomerno. Poznamo obdobja počasnejšega in hitrejšega upadanja. Za najnovejše obdobje hitrega zniževanja, ki se je v Sloveniji začelo leta 1981, je značilno: - nepretrgano zniževanje celotne rodnosti, - nepretrgano zniževanje rodnosti žensk, mlajših od 25 let, - počasno, vendar nepretrgano upadanje rodnosti žensk, starih 30 let in več, - stagniranje rodnosti v starosti 25-29 let, razen v letih 1987-1988, ko opazimo rahel dvig, - zviševanje poprečne starosti žensk ob rojstvu otrok po letu 1982. Nekoliko drugačne zaključke o zniževanju rodnosti pri nas dobimo, če namesto letnih (koledarskih), opazujemo generacijske starostnospecifične koeficiente rodnosti oz. potomstvo. Ti v nasprotju z letnimi starostnospecifičnimi koeficienti, na katerih vrednosti vplivata tako intenzivnost kot časovni razpored (koledar) rojstev, izražajo samo intenzivnost rodnosti. Za zniževanje rodnosti v generacijah je značilno, da: - se je pospešeno zniževanje potomstva pričelo z generacijami, rojenimi sredi petdesetih let; - se je zviševanje poprečne starosti žensk ob rojstvu otrok začelo z generacijami, rojenimi okrog leta 1957; - se prvi znaki nadomeščanja “odloženih" rojstev pokažejo med ženskami, starejšimi od 30 let, ki so bile rojene v drugi polovici petdesetih let. Primerjava celotnega potomstva s celotno rodnostjo pokaže, da je slednja od začetka osemdesetih let dalje pri nas podcenjena. Vzrok je v povečevanju poprečne starosti žensk ob rojstvu prvega in nadaljnjih otrok, kar se navezuje na zviševanje poprečne starosti žensk ob sklenitvi zakonske zveze, ki je skupna večini evropskih držav že od začetka sedemdsetih let dalje. Tako so zelo nizke vrednosti celotne rodnosti po letu 1980 posledica sobivanja starejših generacij, ki so otroke rojevale relativno mlade, in mlajših generacij, ki se za rojstva odločajo relativno pozno. Ta nov način rodnega obnašanja, za katerega je poleg poznih porok in poznega rojevanja otrok značilen še velik odstotek zunajzakonskih skupnosti in naraščajoči delež parov brez otrok, se v Sloveniji kaže v nekoliko spremenjeni obliki. Poprečna starost ob sklenitvi prve zakonske zveze in rojstvu prvega otroka je v primerjavi z razvitimi evropskimi državami relativno nizka in tudi delež parov, ki ostane ob koncu rodne dobe brez otrok, ne presega 10 %. V sam evropski vrh pa se uvrščamo z deležem zunajzakonskih rojstev. Poleg teh dolgoročnih sprememb vplivajo na pozne poroke in pozno rojevanje otrok v Sloveniji v zadnjih letih verjetno tudi kratkoročni dejavniki kot: gospodarska recesija, povečana nezaposlenost, socialne spremembe itd. RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA When preparing assumptions for population projections it is important to know and understand the recent demographic development for two main reasons: - population by age groups and sex, which is the starting point of the projections, reflects the trends in mortality, fertility and migration in the previous years, - possible future developments may be foreseen only In the context of recent changes. Fertility Fertility in Slovenia has been decreasing for 100 years. In Slovenia, as well as in most European countries, fertility behaviour has essentially changed during this time. The biggest change is the fact that fertility does not ensure the replacement of generations any more. Fertility has not been decreasing evenly. There are periods of slighter and sharper falls. The latest period ol sharp decrease started in Slovenia in 1981, and its characteristics are: - continuous decrease of total fertility, ■ continuous decrease of fertility among women under 25 years, ■ slight, but continuous decrease of fertility among women aged over 30 years, - stagnation of fertility among women aged from 25 to 29 years, except in the years 1987 and 1988 when there was a slight increase, - increase of the mean age of women at the birth of their first child after 1982. The conclusions about fertility decrease in Slovenia are slightly different if cohort age-specific birth rates or completed fertility are obsen/ed instead of period ones. In contrast with the period age-specific rates which are influenced by the intensity as well as the timing of births, they reflect only the intensity of fertility. Characteristics of the fertility decrease in cohorts are: - sharper decrease of fertility started with generations born in the mid-1950's, - the increase of the mean age of women at motherhood started with generations born around 1957, • the first signs of "postponed" births are shown among women, aged over 30, who were born in the second half of the 1950's. The comparison of completed fertility with total fertility shows that the latter has been underestimated since the beginning of the 1980's. The reason is the increase of the mean age of women giving birth to their first and further children, which is in connection with the increase of the mean age at marriage, which has been common to most European countries since the beginning of the 1970's. Thus very low values of total fertility after 1980 are the consequence of coexistence of older generations who were giving births to children when they were relatively young, and younger generations who decide for motherhood relatively late. This new fertility behaviour, characteristics of which are late marriages and late motherhood as well as a high percentage of coabitations and an increasing share of childless couples is shown in a slightly changed form in Slovenia. The comparison with developed European countries shows that the mean age at first marriage and birth of the first child is relatively low, and the share of childless couples at the end of reproductive age does not exceed 10 %. However, we are at the European top with the share of children born out of wedlock. Besides these long-term changes, late marriages and late motherhood are most probably influenced also by short-term factors such as: economic recession, increasing unemployment, social changes, etc. Tabela 1: Nekaj kazalnikov rodnosti za Republiko Slovenijo in sosednje države, 1992 Table 1: Some fertility indicators for the Republic of Slovenia and neighbouring countries, 1992 Država Country Celotna rodnost Total fertility Poprečna starost ob rojstvu prvega otroka Mean age at birth of first child Poprečna starost ob sklenitvi prve zakonske zveze Mean age at first marriage SLOVENIJA SLOVENIA 1,34 24,2 24,1 Avstrija Austria 1,51 26,0 25,7 Hrvaška (1991) Croatia 1,50 24,4 23,8 Italija Italy 1,25 26,9 (1990) 25,6 (1990) Madžarska Hungary 1,77 22,6 21,6 Umrljivost Mortality V Sloveniji se umrljivost znižuje že več kot stoletje. Sedaj rojeni deček lahko pričakuje že skoraj 70 let življenja, deklica pa 8 let več. To je sicer manj kot v Italiji ali Avstriji, a več kot na Hrvaškem in Madžarskem. Istočasno z zniževanjem umrljivosti se je pri nas povečevala razlika med umrljivostjo moških in žensk. Umrljivost žensk se je zniževala neprekinjeno (izjema so seveda vojna obdobja), umrljivost moških pa pozna tudi obdobja stagnacije ali celo nazadovanja, npr. šestdeseta leta. Posledica takega razvoja je bila vedno večja razlika v pričakovanem trajanju življenja med moškimi in ženskami. Ta razlika se je nehala povečevati šele v osemdesetih letih. Med leti 1980-1982 in 1990-1992 se je pričakovano trajanje življenja moških pri nas podaljšalo za 1,6 leta, za ženske pa 1,3 leta. V začetku devetdesetih let ponovno opažamo stagnacijo pričakovanega trajanja življenja ob rojstvu in to za oba spola. Zaustavilo se je tudi zniževanje umrljivosti dojenčkov. To stagnacijo nekateri strokovnjaki pripisujejo spremembam v organizaciji zdravstvenega varstva, ki ne prispeva k manjši obolevnosti in umrljivosti. in Slovenia mortality has been decreasing for more than 100 years. Actual life expectancy at birth is almost 70 years for boys and 8 years more for girls. This is still less than in Italy and Austria, but more than in Croatia and Hungary. Simultaneously with decreasing mortality the difference between male and female mortality was increasing in our country. Female mortality was decreasing continuously (with the exception of war years), whereas male mortality shows also periods of stagnation or even regression, e.g. the 1960-s. The consequence of this was higher and higher difference in life expectancy for males and females. This difference stopped increasing only in the 1980s. In the period between 1980-1982, and 1990-1992 life expectancy for males increased by 1.6 year, and for females by 1.3 year. At the beginning of the 1990s stagnation of life expectancy at birth is noted again for both sexes. Decrease of infant mortality has also stopped. Some experts attribute this stagnation to the changes in the organization of health care which does not contribute to lower morbidity and mortality. Tabela 2: Umrljivost dojenčkov in pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu v Republiki Sloveniji in sosednjih državah po letu 1989 Table 2: Infant mortality and life expectancy at birth in the Republic of Slovenia and neighbouring countries after 1989 Država Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu Leto Umrljivost dojenčkov ’) Life expectancy at birth Country Infant mortality Ženske Moški Year Females Males SLOVENIJA SLOVENIA 1989/90 8,1 77,19 69,38 1990/91 8,4 77,38 69,54 1991/92 8,3 77,25 69,45 1992/93 8,9 77,29 69,40 Avstrija (1992) Austria (1992) 7,5 79,4 72,9 Hrvaška (1991) Croatia (1991) 11,1 75,0 65,6 Italija (1992) Italy (1992) 8,3 80,2 73,6 Madžarska (1992) Hungary (1992) 14,1 73,7 64,6 11 Vrednosti se nanašajo na prva leta dvoletnih obdobij ’> Values refer to the first years of two-year periods J&L SIi Selivnost Slovenija je bila dolga desetletja dežela, iz katere se je več ljudi odseljevalo kot pa se jih je vanjo priseljevalo. Neto selitve so postale pozitivne šele v šestdesetih letih, a ne za dolgo. Zaradi političnih sprememb v letu 1991, so bile selitve že v tem in naslednjem letu ponovno negativne. Kljub temu pa na osnovi podatkov za leto 1993 predvidevamo, da se bodo tradicionalni priselitveni tokovi spet obnovili, razen če bo država Slovenije za prihodnost sprejela smernice za zelo strogo priselitveno politiko. Izselitveni tokovi so bili tradicionalno usmerjeni pretežno na sever in na zahod, priseljenci pa so prihajali z jugovzhoda. Prvi so imeli značaj zunanjih, drugi pa notranjih selitev. Ker so imele odselitve v druge evropske države, ki so v novejšem času postale ševilčno pomembne po letu 1965, uradno značaj začasnih odselitev, niso bile prikazane v uradnih statističnih podatkih. Če pa bi jih prišteli k odselitvam, kar bi bolj ustrezalo Priporočilom Organizacije Združenih Narodov o meddržavnih selitvah, bi Slovenija pozitivne neto selitve dočakala šele koncem sedemdesetih let. Sprotno statistično spremljanje selitev je zelo zahtevno, zato le redko naletimo na dobre tekoče podatke o selitvah. Za Republiko Slovenijo imamo, upoštevajoč že omenjene pomanjkljivosti, od leta 1957 naprej podatke o številu priseljenih in odseljenih, od leta 1982 naprej pa tudi podatke o nekaterih značilnostih selivcev. Iz teh podatkov lahko povzamemo, da: - je bilo v preteklem obdobju pri nas med priseljenimi več moških kot žensk, - so bile priseljenke mlajše od priseljencev, - se starostna sestava priseljenih sklada s pričakovano, - je bilo med odseljenimi več moških kot žensk, - so bili odseljenci starejši od odseljenk, - so bile neto selitve za večino starostnih skupin obeh spolov pozitivne; negativne so bile le za moške med 34. in 60. letom starosti, - so bili glavni razlogi za priseljevanje ekonomski. MOJA OPAŽANJA (OPOMBE): Migration Slovenia was for many decades a country which had more emigrants than immigrants. Net migrations became positive only in the 1960-s, but not for a long time. Due to political changes in 1991 the migrations were negative again and this was the case also in the following year. In spite of this fact we anticipate, on the basis of the data for 1993, that traditional immigration streams will be resumed again, unless Slovenia's immigration policy will be grided by very restrictive measures in the future. Emigration streams were traditionally directed mainly northward and westward, immigrants were coming from south-east. The former were external and the latter were internal migrations. As emmigrations to other European countries, which have recently become important in terms of the number after 1965, were officially labelled as temporary emigrations, they were not shown in the official statistical data, if they had been added to emigrations, which would be more in accordance with United Nations Recommendations for international migrations, Slovenia would have reached a positive net migration only at the end of the 1970-s. Current statistical observation of migration is very demanding and that is the reason why the current data on migration is rarely good. Considering the above stated deficiencies, in the Republic of Slovenia the data on the number of immigrants and emigrants is available from 1957 onwards, and from 1982 onwards there is also some data on migrants' sharacteristics. It may be summarized from this data that: - in the past period there were more male immigrants than female ones, - female immigrants were younger than mate ones, - age structure of immigrants is in accordance with the expected, - there were more male emigrants than female ones, - male emigrants were older than female emigrants, - net migrations were positive for the majority of age groups of both sexes; they were negative only for males between 34 and 60 years of age, - main reasons for immigration were economic. MY OBSERVATIONS (NOTES): Slika 2: Celotna rodnost in celotno potomstvo, Republika Slovenija, 1957-1992, generacije 1930-1960 Figure 2: Total fertility and completed fertility, Republic of Slovenia, 1957-1992, generations 1930-1960 poprečno število živorojenih otrok na eno žensko average number of livebirths per women Celotno potomstvo / CFR Celotna rodnost / TFR I I I I I I 1962/1935 1967/1940 1972/1945 1977/1950 Leto-generacija / Year-generation 1982/1955 1957/1930 1987/1960 1991/1964 Slika 3: Starostnospecifični koeficienti splošne rodnosti, Republika Slovenija, 1951-1991 Figure 3: Age-specific fertility rates, Republic of Slovenia, 1951-1991 starostnospecifični koeficineti splošne rodnosti age-specific fertility rates 25-29 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Slika 4: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu po spolu, Republika Slovenija, 1970-1991 Figure 4: Life expectancy at birth by sex, Republic of Slovenia, 1970-1991 leta starosti age moški / males ženske / females 1969/70 1974/75 1979/80 1984/85 1989/90 1992/93 leto / year Slika 5: Pričakovano trajanje življenja v starosti 65 let, po spolu, Republika Slovenija, 1970-1991 Figure 5: Life expectancy at age 65, by sex, Republic of Slovenia, 1970-1991 leta starosti age moški / males ženske / females 1979/80 1984/85 1969/70 1974/75 1989/90 1992/93 leto / year Slika 6: Starostnospecifični koeficienti splošne rodnosti, Republika Slovenija, generacije 1930-1965 Figure 6: Age-specific fertility rates, Republic of Slovenia, generatoions 1930-1965 O C d) c *N Q) f 2 o (5 ■Q poprečno število živorojenih otrok na eno žensko average number of livebirths per women 25-29 I I I I I I I I I I I 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1945 1947 generacija / generation OBLIKOVANJE HIPOTEZ Zaradi relativno kratkega časovnega obdobja, ki nam je bilo na voljo za izdelavo potrebnih analiz, smo si pri oblikovanju hipotez poleg analiz za zadnjih 5 let pomagali še z analizo, narejeno za projekcije iz leta 1990 ter tudi z izkušnjami strokovnjakov Eurostata, predvsem pri poznavanju in razumevanju demografskih procesov zunaj Slovenije. Prihodnji razvoj smo opredelili z naslednjimi kazalniki: - rodnost: - celotna rodnost in celotno potomstvo, - poprečna starost žensk ob rojstvu otrok in razporeditev rojstev po starosti mater v generacijah in v koledarskih letih; - umrljivost: - pričakovano trajanje življenja moških in žensk ob različnih starostih - koeficienti umrljivosti po starosti in spolu v generacijah in koledarskih letih, - umrljivost po vzrokih smrti (deloma); - selivnost: - število priselitev in odselitev, - starostno-spolna sestava selivcev, - starostno-spolna sestava zdomcev. Vrednosti kazalnikov rodnosti in umrljivosti smo določili za vsako leto do leta 2020, za selivnost pa smo vrednosti za vsako leto določili samo do leta 2000. Za obdobje 2000-2020 smo za ta kazalnik za vsako leto uporabljali vrednost, ki smo jo določili za leto 2000. Za projekcije stalnega prebivalstva1’ smo izdelali po tri variante (nizko, srednjo, visoko), za rodnost umrljivost in selitve, za stalno prebivalstvo brez zdomcev oa še četrto, za katero smo prilagodili vrednosti starostnospecifičnih koeficientov rodnosti. Izdelava računskih postopkov za vse kombinacije in njihova medsebojna primerjava sta zelo koristen analitski pripomoček za ugotavljanje vpliva spreminjanja vrednosti enega dejavnika na število in starostno-spolno sestavo prebivalstva, nista pa nujna za uporabnike projekcij. Zato v tej publikaciji objavljamo 7 variant: dve nizki, dve visoki in tri srednje. Nizki in visoki varianti predstavljata verjetne mejne vrednosti v okviru katerih se bodo odvijali prihodnji demografski procesi v Sloveniji. Hipoteze o prihodnjem razvoju rodnosti, umrljivosti in selivnosti smo najprej oblikovali na Zavodu, dokončno pa s pomočjo mnenj, za katere smo pisno zaprosili demografe, strokovnjake sorodnih ved, predstavnike različnih ustanov, katerih delokrog je neposredno povezan s problematiko prebivalstva in politične stranke. Od 77 vprašanih smo prejeli 21 odgovorov na vsa ali na del vprašanj. Analiza teh odgovorov je pokazala, da so razlike med posameznimi predvidevanji največje za priseljevanje in za odseljevanje, čeprav smo mnenja o tem zbirali le za obdobje do leta 2000. Tako velike razlike v pogledih na prihodnost zunanjih selitev Republike Slovenije so posledica dejstva, da sta smer in obseg preseljevanj tesno povezana z gospodarskimi in političnimi spremembami, pri čemer so slednje skoraj nepredvidljive. Zaradi podobnih razlogov v te projekcije nismo vključili podatkov o začasnih beguncih. Mnenje večine strokovnjakov, da bo vsaj del začasnih beguncev ostal v republiki Sloveniji, bomo upoštevali pri izdelavi naslednjih projekcij. FORMULATION OF ASSUMPTIONS Due to a relatively short period of time available for making the necessary analyses, we have used, in addition to the analyses for the last five years, the analysis made for 1990 projection, as well as the experiences of Eurostat experts, especially their knowledge and understanding of demographic processes outside Slovenia. The future development has been defined by the following indicators: ■ fertility - total fertility and completed fertility - mean age of women at childbirth and the distribution of births by age of mothers in cohorts and in calendar years; - mortality - male and female life expectancy at different ages - mortality rates by age and sex in cohorts and in calendar years, - mortality by causes of death (in part); ■ migration - size of immigrations and emigrations, - migrants by age and sex, - persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and their family members living with them by age and sex. The values of fertility and mortality rates were defined for each year until 2020, whereas the values for migration were defined for each year only until the year 2000. For the period from 2000 to 2020 we used the value defined for year 2000 for each subsequent year. For projections of de jure population we have made three variants for fertility, mortality and migrations (low, medium, high), and for de jure population excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than one year and members of their families living with them we have made also the fourth variant, for which we have adjusted the values of age-specific birth rates. Making computation procedures for all combinations and their mutual comparison is a very useful analytical device for establishing the influence of the changing values of one factor to the population size and its age and sex composition, but they are not necessary for all users of projections. In this publication 7 scenarios, two low, two high and three medium, are presented. Low and high scenarios represent possible margin values within which the future demographic processes in Slovenia will develop. The assmitions on the future development of fertility, mortality and migration were first made at the Statistical Office, and finally with the help of opinions from demographers, experts from related sciences, representatives of different institutions whose range of activities is directly connected with the population issues and political parties. They had been asked to express their opinions in writing. From 77 of those invited we received 21 answers to all or to some questions. The analysis of the answers showed that they vary the most in anticipating future immigration and emigration, although the opinions on that were collected only for the time period until year 2000. The differences in opinions about future external migration of the Republic of Slovenia are the consequence of the fact that the destination and the extent of migrations are closely connected with economic and political changes, the latter being almost unpredictable. For similar reasons, the projections do not include temporary refugees. Most experts believe that at least part of temporary regfugees will stay in the Republic of Slovenia; this assumntion is going to be considered in the following projections. 1’ Pri projekcijah, ki smo jih izdelali, smo uporabljali izraze: - prebivalstvo za “skupaj” - prebivalke za “ženske” - prebivalci za “moške". Tabela 3: Pregled hipotez za sedem variant projekcij stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije in stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev, 1995-2020 Table 3: Review of assumptions for seven different variants of projections of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1995-2020_________________________________ Vrednosti za Values for Pričakovano trajanje življenja Neto selitve Celotno rodnost Life expectancy leta 2000 oz. 2020 TFR Net migration ženske moški year 2000 and til 2020 females males Projekcija Projection Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije Negativne do 1994, NIZKA VARIANTA 1,5 79,5 72,0 nične od 1995 dalje De Jure Population of the Republic of Slovenia Negative until 1994, DE JURE LOW 0 from 1995 onwards Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije Povečanje na 2000 do SREDJA VARIANTA 1,7 81,0 74,0 leta 2000, nato konstantne De Jure population of the Republic of Slovenia Increase to 2000, DE JURE MEDIUM 2000 from 2000 onwards Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije VISOKA VARIANTA De Jure Population of the Republic of Slovenia DE JURE HIGH 1,9 Povečanje na 4000 do 82,5 76,0 leta 2000, nato konstantne Increase to 4000, 4000 from 2000 onwards Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev NIZKA VARIANTA De Jure Population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding... DE JURE LOW, EXCLUDING... 1,5 Povečanje na 150 do leta 1995, nato konstantne 79,5 72,0 Increase to 150, 150 from 1995 onwards Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije Povečanje na 2300 do brez zdomcev leta 2000, nato konstantne SREDNJA VARIANTA 1,7 81,0 74,0 Increase to 2300, De Jure Population of the Republic of 2300 from 2000 onwards Slovenia, excluding... DE JURE MEDIUM, EXCLUDING... Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev VISOKA VARIANTA De Jure Population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding... DE JURE HIGH, EXCLUDING... Povečanje na 4450 do leta 2000, nato konstantne 1,9 82,5 76,0 Increase to 2000, 4450 from 2000 onwards Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev SREDNJA VARIANTA S PRILAGOJENIMI Povečanje na 2300 do leta 2000, nato konstantne VREDNOSTMI RODNOSTI De Jure Population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding... DE JURE, EXCLUDING... MEDIUM ADJUSTED FERTILITY 1,75 81,0 74,0 Increase to 2300, 2300 form 2000 onwards Slika 7: Celotna rodnost, Republika Slovenija, 1960-2020 Figure 7: Total fertility, Republic of Slovenia, 1960-2020 celotna rodnost total fertility rate opazovano/otoserved nizka//ow I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I II I II I I I leto / year Slika 8: Poprečna starost žensk ob rojstvu otrok, Republika Slovenija, 1960-2020 Figure 8: Mean age of woman at birth of any child, Republic of Slovenia, 1960-2020 leta starosti age opazovano/obsenred I I I I I I I I I I I I Slika 9: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu, Republika Slovenija, 1975-2020, ženske Figure 9: Life expectancy at birth, Republic of Slovenia, 1975-2020, females leta starosti age opazovano /observed nizkaHow leto / year Slika 10: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu, Republika Slovenija, 1975-2020, moški Figure 10: Life expectancy at birth, Republic of Slovenia, 1975-2020, males leta starosti age opazovano/observed srednja/med/um visoka/high nizka/low število / number Slika 11: Neto selitve, Republika Slovenija, 1982-2020, stalno prebivalstvo Figure 11: Net migration, Republic of Slovenia, 1982-2020, de jure population število number opazovano/oteerved visoka/b/gb nizkaHow I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I leto / year ./ft/ 7i i REZULTATI Komentar rezultatov projekcij je pripravljen za podatke o skupnem številu stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije. Taka je v veliki meri tudi slikovna predstavitev različnih variant projekcij. Tabele - rezultati za Republiko Slovenijo so pripravljeni posebej za: - stalno prebivalstvo, - stalne prebivalke in - stalne prebivalce. Tabele projekcij, ki smo jih izdelali za: - stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije in - stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev, so urejene v tri sklope: - projekcije za velike starostne skupine - projekcije za petletne starostne skupine - projekcije po letih starosti. OUTCOMES The commentary of projection outcomes is prepared for the data on de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia. To a great extent such is also the figure interpretation of different scenarios. Tables to interpret the outcomes for the Republic of Slovenia are prepared separately for: - de jure population, - de jure female population and - de jure male population They are subdivided into two groups: - de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia - de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have lived abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them. Each of them contain three parts: • projections by broad age groups - projections by five-year age groups - projections by single-year of age. REPUBLIKA SLOVENIJA REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Površina, km2......................................20253 Area, km2 Prebivalstvo, 1.1. 1992..........................1998912 Inhabitants, 1.1. 1992 Gostota (prebivalstva) na km2.........................98 Density (of population) per km2 SKUPNO PREBIVALSTVO Prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije se zadnja tri leta številčno zmanjšuje. Seveda je tak razvoj vzrok zaskrbljenosti odgovornih za prebivalstveno politiko pri nas in tudi mnoge druge zanima, kako bo s številčnostjo našega naroda v prihodnosti. Ta je v prvi vrsti odvisna od sedanje starostne sestave prebivalstva, potem pa seveda od umrljivosti, rodnosti in selitev. Sedanje starostne sestave ne moremo spremeniti. Umrljivost je pri nas prav gotovo še mogoče znižati, predvsem mladih in tistih, ki so v srednjih letih. Zvišamo pa seveda “lahko” našo za naravno (številčno) obnavljanje prebivalstva prenizko rodnost. Kakšne rezultate oz. pričakovanja ponujajo naše projekcije? Prebivalstvo Slovenije lahko svojo rast tudi nadaljuje Prvega januarja 1992 je živelo v Republiki Sloveniji skoraj 2 miljona prebivalcev (1.998.912). Glede na rezultate projekcij, ki smo jih izdelali, samo nizke variante predvidevajo konstantno upadanje skupnega števila prebivalstva. Rezultati najbolj optimističnih projekcij, visokih variant, predvidevajo v naslednjih 25-ih letih sicer naraščanje števila prebivalstva, toda to povečanje po naših izračunih ne bi preseglo 210.000 prebivalcev, kar pomeni rast 8.400 oseb letno, oz. 2,21 miljona ljudi leta 2020. Rezultati srednjih variant in variante s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti predvidevajo v prihodnosti “nadaljevanje” le skromne rasti števila prebivalstva, po letu 2015 pa predvidevajo celo rahel upad števila prebivalstva naše države. Po rezultatih nizkih variant projekcij pa bo Slovenija v naslednjih 25-tih letih izgubila od 105.000 do 150.000 ljudi in bo nazadovala od skoraj dveh miljonov prebivalstva leta 1992 na 1,89 miljona leta 2020. Prebivalstvo, staro 0-19 let Od začetka 70. let pa do leta 1992 je število otrok oziroma mladih, starih do 20 let, pri nas upadalo in leta 1992 doseglo številko 549.040 ljudi oz. je predstavljalo 28 % našega prebivalstva. Ker v hipotezah, ki smo jih sprejeli za te projekcije, nismo predvideli zelo optimističnega preobrata v razvoju rodnosti (to pomeni, posebej skokovite spremembe oz. obrata), rezultati nobene od izdelanih variant projekcij ne “predvidevajo” v prihodnosti ponovne bistvene rasti števila prebivalstva teh starosti. Glede na rezultate naših projekcij se bo nazadovanje njihovega števila nadaljevalo tudi v prihodnosti. Seveda predvidevajo najmanjši upad visoke variante projekcij, saj je pričakovana rodnost pri njih najvišja. Pri nizkih variantah projekcij se bo upadanje konstantno nadaljevalo do leta 2020, pri srednjih in visokih pa do leta 2010. Takrat se bo, pri posameznih variantah projekcij seveda različno, nazadovanje upočasnilo oz. bo začelo število prebivalstva naraščati. Tako bo leta 2020 po rezultatih nizkih variant projekcij pri nas le še 19,4% oz. 19,5% mlajših od 20 let, po rezultatih srednjih varant 21,3%, 21,4% oz. 21,9% prebivalcev države in po rezultatih visokih variant 23,2% oz. 23,3% prebivalstva. Takrat bo po predvidevanjih pri nas toliko starih od 366.486 do 512.163 ljudi, mlajših od 20 let, kar pomeni, da tudi najbolj optimistično postavljene hipoteze ne predvidevajo leta 2020 vsaj enakega števila mladega prebivalstva, kot smo ga imeli leta 1992. Prebivalstvo, staro 20-59 let Zadnjih 25 let je delovno sposobno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije skoraj linearno naraščalo od 884.000 na 1.123.000 prebivalcev leta 1994. Ta trend se bo prav gotovo končal v bližnji prihodnosti. Celo če bi se relativno visok nivo priseljevanja 80-ih let nadaljeval, bi število 20-59 let starih ne naraščalo več z enako intenzivnostjo kot doslej. TOTAL POPULATION The size of population of the Republic of Slovenia has been decreasing for the last three years. Those responsible for population policy and many others are concerned about this trend and wonder what the size of our nation will be in the future. This mainly depends on the present structure of population by age and, of course, also on mortality, fertility and migration. The present population age structure can not be changed. It is possible to lower the mortality, especially for the young and middle-aged. Of course, it is "possible" to increase our fertility, which is too low for reproduction of the population. What are the outcomes or expectations our projections can offer? The population of Slovenia may continue its growth On the day of 1st January 1992 the population of the Republic of Slovenia was nearly 2 million (1,998,912). According to the outcomes of the projections made, only low variants anticipate constant decrease of the total population size. The outcomes of the most optimistic scenarios (high variants) foresee an increase of the population in the next 25 years, but according to our calculations this will not exceed 210,000 inhabitants, which means the growth of population by 8,400 per year, and the population wil not exceed 2.21 million in 2020. The outcomes of medium scenarios and the scenario with adjusted birth rates anticipate continuation of the present moderate increace of the population size, and after 2015 even a slight decrease in the size of population of our country is anticipated. According to the outcomes of low scenarios Slovenia will lose from 105,000 to 150,000 inhabitants in the following 25 years and will regress from population of nearly two million in 1992 to 1.89 million in 2020. Popualtion aged 0-19 years The number of children and youth aged under 20, was decreasing from the beginning of the 1970-s until 1992 and in 1992 reached the number 549.040 which represented 28 % of total population. As the assumptions for these projections do not anticipate any optimistic sudden change in the development of fertility (which means a leaping change or turn) in our country, none of the variants foresees a future essential increase in the size of the population of that age. According to the outcomes of our projections, the population will be decreasing also in the future. High scenarios anticipate the lowest decrease as their anticipated rate of fertility is the highest. According to low scenarios the decrease will be constant until 2020, whereas medium and high variants anticipate constant decrease until 2010. Then, of course differently for single scenarios the decrease will be slower or even the increase can be expected. In 2020, according to the low scenarios, there will be only 19.4 % or 19.5% of the population under 20; according to the medium variants 21.3 %, 21.4 % or 21.9 %; and according to the high scenarios 23.2 % or 23.3 % of the population of our country. It is anticipated that there will be from 366.486 to 512.163 population of that age, which means that even the most optimistic assumptions for 2020 do not anticipate at least the same number of young population as we had in 1992. Popualtion aged 20-59 years For the last 25 years working age population in the Republic of Slovenia has been increasing nearly linearly from 884,000 to 1,123,000 in 1994. Po predvidevanjih se bo pri nas število oseb tistega dela prebivalstva, ki predstavlja “potencialno” delovno silo (stari 20-59 let), v naslednjih 15-ih letih še povečevalo. A med leti 2005 in 2010 se bo precejšen del prebivalstva, rojenega po vojni (številčno močna generacija), upokojil. Zato bo takrat naraščanje številčnosti “potencialne” delovne sile oslabljeno. Verjetno bomo celo priče upada števila tega dela našega prebivalstva. Leta 2020 bo po predvidevanjih njihovo število doseglo podobne vrednosti kot so bile značilene za sedemdeseta leta. Seveda pa je napovedovanje dejanskega števila “potencialne” delovne sile najbolj odvisno od vrednosti predpostavke o tem, kako številčne bodo v teh letih (meddržavne) selitve. Močna rast števila starejših prebivalcev Leta 1992 je živelo v Sloveniji 327.198 ljudi, ki so bili stari 60 ali več let. Ob prelomu tisočletja bo število toliko starih pri nas, po izračunih vseh variant teh projekcij, le nekoliko večje. Toda, na začetku novega tisočletja (po letu 2005), ko se bodo upokojili tisti prebivalci, ki sodijo v številčno močne generacije, rojene po drugi svetovni vojni, se bo število starejših pri nas začelo silovito povečevati, kar se bo do leta 2020, mejnega leta naših projekcij, neprekinjeno nadaljevalo. Če je bilo v začetku devetdesetih let pri nas 60 in več let starih okrog 15,5% prebivalcev, bo po naših predvidevanjih leta 2020 delež te starostne skupine presegel 26%. Posebej močno številčno rast opazimo v skupini zelo starih. Število tistih, ki so bili v začetku leta 1992 stari 80 in več let je bilo pri nas 47.264. Številčno siromašnejše generacije toliko starih so posledica izgub v drugi svetovni vojni. Do leta 2000 sicer pričakujemo nekolikšno zmanjšanje njihovega števila (0,3-1%), a leta 2020 bo ta starostna skupina pri nas že štela 80.200-110.200 prebivalcev oz. se bo povečala za 70-133%. ZAKLJUČKI Trenutno je za Slovenijo značilno upadanje rodnosti, stabilno ali rahlo naraščanje pričakovanega trajanja življenja in znova rahlo naraščanje števila neto selitev. Dolgoročno je po vseh variantah projekcij za Slovenijo predvideno nazadovanje števila njenega prebivalstva v starostnih skupinah 0-19 in 20-39 let. Kakšno pa bo pri nas v prihodnosti njihovo število bo seveda odvisno predvsem od števila žensk v rodni dobi in njihove rodnosti. Število prebivalstva v starostnih skupinah 40-59, 60-79 in nad 80 let bo naraščalo, kar nazorno potrjujejo tudi izračuni in grafični prikazi koeficientov starostne odvisnosti in kazalnikov staranja. Iz rezultatov teh projekcij je jasno, da bosta, seveda, če se bodo dane predpostavke uresničile, v prihodnosti glavna dejavnika spreminjanja števila prebivalstva Slovenije dva: kratkoročni - vredost presežka števila priseljenih nad odseljenimi in njihova starostno-spolna sestava ter dolgoročni - gibanje vrednosti naravnega prirasta v Sloveniji. Poleg tega moramo biti pozorni na dve dejstvi: - za nadaljno številčno rast prebivalstva pri nas možnosti so, - delež mladega prebivalstva se bo še manjšal in bo zato staranje prebivalstva izrazitejše kot doslej. This trend wilt most probably stop in the near future. Even if the relatively high level of immigration of the 1980s continued, the share of population aged from 20 to 59 would not be increasing with the same intensity as it has up to now. According to anticipations the size of the population which represents "potential" labour force (aged 20-59) will be increasing in the following 15 years. However, between 2005 and 2010 a great share of the population, born after the war (numericaly superior cohorts), will retire. For this reason the increase of the number of "potential" labour force will be weakened. Most probably the proportion of this population will even decrease. In 2020 their number will, according to anticipations, reach the level of the 1970-s. Forecasting the actual number of "potential" labour force depends mainly on the value of the assumption on the size of net (international) migration in those years. High growth of the number of elderly population In 1992 in Slovenia there were 327,198 persons aged 60 or more. At the turn of the millennium, the number of persons of this age will be, according to the computations of ali scenarios, only slightly bigger. However, at the beginning of the new millennium (after 2005) the population belonging to large cohorts born after the Second World War, will retire and there will be a sharp increase of the number of elderly people, and this will be continuing until 2020, the final year of our projections. Whereas at the beginning of the 1990-s the share of people of this age was about 15.5 % of the population, it is anticipated that in 2020 the share of this age group will exceed 26 %. There is an especially sharp rise in the number of very old people. The number of those aged 80 or more at the beginning of 1992 was 47,264. Cohorts of this age were smaller as a consequence of losses during the Second World War. A slight decrease is expected until the year 2000 (0,3-1%), but in the year 2000 there will be 80,200-110,200 population in this age group; i.e., it will increase by 70-133 %. CONCLUSIONS At the moment the following is characteristic of Slovenia: decrease of fertility, stable or slight increase of life expectancy and slight increase of net migration. For the future all scenarios forsees long-term decrease in the size of population in Slovenia aged 0-19 years and 20-39 years. Their number in the future will above all depend on the number of women in reproductive age and the level of their fertility. The number of population in age groups 40-59, 60-79 and over 80 years will be increasing, which is confirmed by computations and graph displays of dependency ratios and ageing indices. The results of this projection show that if our assumptions realise there will be two main factors of changing the size of population: short-term - increase of the number of migrants, and long-term - the value of natural increase in Slovenia. Besides we must know that: - the population can continue to grow, - the share of young population will be decreasing and ageing of population will be even more evident than it has been up to the present. Slika 12: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu, 1.1. 1992 Figure 12: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1.1. 1992 10000 15000 20000 15000 10000 20000 Število prebivalcev Število prebivalk No of male population No of female population Slika 13: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, NIZKA varianta Figure 13: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure low 20000 Število prebivalcev No of male population 15000 10000 5000 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5000 10000 15000 20000 Število prebivalk No of female population AhS ! Slika 14: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, SREDNJA varianta Figure 14: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure medium 3 5 Število prebivalcev No of male population Število prebivalk No of female population Slika 15: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, VISOKA varianta Figure 15: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure high 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Število prebivalcev Število prebivalk No of male population ™o of female population Slika 16: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Figure 16: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure, excuding medium adjusted fertility 50 - 10000 15000 20000 15000 10000 20000 Število prebivalcev Število prebivalk No ot male population No of female population Slika 17: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) Figure 17: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers) število prebivalstva number of population visokajhigh opazovano/observed Slika 18: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) Figure 18: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers) število prebivalk number ot female population opazovano/observed leto / year Slika 19: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) Figure 19: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers) ts I t I 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Slika 20: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (indeks) Figure 20: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (index) skupaj: indeks total: index opazovano/obsen/ed leto / year Slika 21: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev, 1971, 1981, 1992 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) Figure 21: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1971, 1981, 1992 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers) I število prebivalstva number of population opazovano/observed srednjaImedium visoka/high nizka/fow sr.oc.rod ./med.adj.fer. 2015 2020 Slika 22: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, z in brez brez zdomcev, v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020, nizka in visoka varinata (število) Figure 22: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020, De jure low and De jure high (absolute numbers) število prebivalstva number ot population 2200 opazovano/observed sr.oc.rod .lmed.adj.fer. nizkaIde jure low visoka/b/gb nizka/de jure, ex., low visoka/de jure, ex., high leto / year Slika 23: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, z in brez brez zdomcev, v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020, nizka, visoka in srednja varainta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti (število) Figure 23: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1970-1990 and projections, De jure low, De jure high and De jure medium adjusted fertility, 1995-2020 (absolute numbers) 2400 število prebivalstva number ol population opazovano/observed visoka/b/gb nizkaIde /ure low visoka/de jure, ex., high nizkaIde jure, ex., low Slika 24: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, število) Figure 24: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, absolute numbers) staro 0-19 let: število aged 0-19: number opazovano/observed nizka/toiv 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 leto / year Slika 25: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, indeks) Figure 25: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, index) staro 0-19 let: indeks aged 0-19: index opazovano/observed Slika 26: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, %) Figure 26: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, %) O) 6 O) 6 a* staro 0-19 let: % aged 0-19: % opazmanolobserved leto / year Slika 27: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, število) Figure 27: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, absolute numbers) 700 600 500 400 staro 20-39 let: število aged 20-39: number • opazovano/oteerved nizka/low srednja/medium visoka/b/'gb 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Slika 28: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, indeks) Figure 28: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, index) staro 20-39 let: indeks aged 20-39: index opazovano/observed nizkaHow visoka/high leto / year Slika 29: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, %) Figure 29: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, %) l I a« staro 20-39 let: % aged 20-39: % opazovano/observed 2010 Slika 30: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, število) Figure 30: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, absolute numbers) staro 40-59 let: število aged 40-59: number opazovano/observed srednja/medium leto / year Slika 31: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, indeks) Figure 31: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, index) staro 40-59 let: indeks aged 40-59: index nizka/low opazovano/observec/ Slika 32: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, %) Figure 32: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, %) staro 40-59 let: % aged 40-59: % opazovano/observed 2015 leto / year Slika 33: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, število) Figure 33: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, absolute numbers) staro 60-79 let: število aged 60-79: number opazovano/observed nizkaHow Slika 34: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, indeks) Figure 34: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, index) 160 staro 60-79 let: indeks aged 60-79: index R $ I 140 120 100 80 60 opazovano/observed --------------- nizka/tow -------------- srednja/medium --------- visoka/b/gb 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 leto / year Slika 35: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, %) Figure 35: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, %) staro 60-79 let: % aged 60-79: % nizka/low opazovano/observed Slika 36: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, število) Figure 36: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, absolute numbers) staro 80+ let: število aged 80+: number opazovanolobserved leto / year Slika 37: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, indeks) Figure 37: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, index) staro 80+ let: indeks aged 80+: index opazovano/observed srednja/medium Slika 38: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, %) Figure 38: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, %) staro 80+ let: % aged 80+: % opazovano/observed leto / year Slika 39: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-59 let, število) Figure 39: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-59, absolute numbers) staro 20-59 let: število aged 20-59: number opazovano/observed nizka/tov W- Slika 40: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-59 let, %) Figure 40: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-59, %) staro 20-59 let: % aged 20-59: % opazovano/observed leto / year Slika 41: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60 in več let, število) Figure 41: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60+, absolute numbers) 600 500 + 8 300 opazovano/observed --------------- nizka/low -------------- srednja/medium -----—■ visokathigh 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 J4/ i Slika 42: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60 in več let, %) Figure 42: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60+, %) staro 60+ let: % aged 60+: % opazovano/observed nizkaHow leto / year Slika 43: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (0-19) + (60+)/(20-59)) Figure 43: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (0-19)+(60+)/(20-59)) (0-19) + (60+) 20-59 opazovano/observed nizka/low leto / year Slika 44: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (0-19)/(20-59)) Figure 44: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (0-19)1(20-59)) opazovano/observed nizka/fovv leto / year Slika 45: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (40-59)/(20-59)) Figure 45: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (40-59)1(20-59)) 40-59 20-59 opazovano/observed visoka/h/g/7 nizka/low Slika 46: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (60+)/(20-59)) Figure 46: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (60+)/(20-59)) 20-59 opazovano/observed visoka/high nizka/low 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 leto / year Slika 47: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (80+)/(60+)) Figure 47: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (80+)l(60+)) 20 18 16 14 12 * 8 10 8 6 80+ 60+ opazovano/observed --------------- nizka/low -------------- srednja/medium visoka/high 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Slika 48: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu, 1.1. 1992 in projekcije stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020 (NIZKA In VISOKA varianta ter SREDNJA VARIANTA S PRILAGOJENIMI VREDNOSTMI RODNOSTI) Figure 48: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1.1. 1992 and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020 - De jure low and De jure high and De jure medium adjusted fertility 15000 10000 20000 10000 15000 20000 Število prebivalcev No of male population Število prebivalk No of female population opazovano 1.1.1992 observed 1.1.1992 nizka varianta de jure low srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostimi rodnosti de jure, excluding .... medium adjusted fertility visoka varianta de jure high Tabela 4: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 4: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 2039 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Tear of observation 1970 579311 512474 371865 229744 19300 1712694 1975 561877 536832 399993 251776 21770 1772247 1980 574371 556294 459349 236599 27627 1854239 1985 579156 602964 472481 243507 38731 1936839 1990 562184 635285 487843 266889 44176 1996377 Leto projekcije Tear of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 519289 608013 522518 295661 51915 1997396 2000 462027 595731 557187 331103 42450 1988498 2005 416537 579696 582775 345187 52940 1977135 2010 387931 552480 597684 357256 65641 1960992 2015 377638 511264 575629 393844 76144 1934519 2020 366486 455076 565974 425857 80228 1893621 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 521544 608934 522788 296139 52364 2001769 2000 473215 601919 558321 333777 44281 2011513 2005 441705 593687 585146 351004 56893 2028435 2010 430373 573932 602002 366468 72750 2045525 2015 436848 539660 584121 406565 87180 2054374 2020 437146 493703 581207 442105 94670 2048831 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 523787 609853 523055 296605 52787 2006087 2000 484478 608094 559413 336298 46017 2034300 2005 467364 607649 587372 356423 60747 2079555 2010 474190 595349 606046 375021 79899 2130505 2015 498723 568014 592262 418360 98656 2176015 2020 512163 532378 596047 457146 110254 2207988 Tabela 5: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 5: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992 = 100) Indeces of population increase/decrease (1992=100) Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 106 82 74 82 41 86 1975 102 86 80 90 46 89 1980 105 89 92 85 58 93 1985 105 97 95 87 82 97 1990 102 102 98 95 93 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 95 98 105 106 110 100 2000 84 96 112 118 90 99 2005 76 93 117 123 112 99 2010 71 89 120 128 139 98 2015 69 82 115 141 161 97 2020 67 73 113 152 170 95 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 95 98 105 106 111 100 2000 86 97 112 119 94 101 2005 80 95 117 125 120 101 2010 78 92 121 131 154 102 2015 80 87 117 145 184 103 2020 80 79 116 158 200 102 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 95 98 105 106 112 100 2000 88 98 112 120 97 102 2005 85 98 118 127 129 104 2010 86 96 121 134 169 107 2015 91 91 119 149 209 109 2020 93 85 119 163 233 110 Tabela 6: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 6: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 2039 40-59 6079 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 33,82 29,92 21,71 13,41 1,13 100 1975 31,70 30,29 22,57 14,21 1,23 100 1980 30,98 30,00 24,77 12,76 1,49 100 1985 29,90 31,13 24,39 12,57 2,00 100 1990 28,16 31,82 24,44 13,37 2,21 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 26,00 30,44 26,16 14,80 2,60 100 2000 23,23 29,96 28,02 16,65 2,13 100 2005 21,07 29,32 29,48 17,46 2,68 100 2010 19,78 28,17 30,48 18,22 3,35 100 2015 19,52 26,43 29,76 20,36 3,94 100 2020 19,35 24,03 29,89 22,49 4,24 100 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 26,05 30,42 26,12 14,79 2,62 100 2000 23,53 29,92 27,76 16,59 2,20 100 2005 21,78 29,27 28,85 17,30 2,80 100 2010 21,04 28,06 29,43 17,92 3,56 100 2015 21,26 26,27 28,43 19,79 4,24 100 2020 21,34 24,10 28,37 21,58 4,62 100 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 26,11 30,40 26,07 14,79 2,63 100 2000 23,82 29,89 27,50 16,53 2,26 100 2005 22,47 29,22 28,25 17,14 2,92 100 2010 22,26 27,94 28,45 17,60 3,75 100 2015 22,92 26,10 27,22 19,23 4,53 100 2020 23,20 24,11 27,00 20,70 4,99 100 Tabela 7: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 7: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19)+ (60+) 0-19 60+ 40-59 80+ 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 93,7 65,5 28,2 42,1 7,7 1975 89,2 60,0 29,2 42,7 8,0 1980 82,6 56,6 26,0 45,2 10,5 1985 80,1 53,9 26,2 43,9 13,7 1990 77,8 50,1 27,7 43,4 14,2 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 76,7 45,9 30,7 46,2 14,9 2000 72,5 40,1 32,4 48,3 11,4 2005 70,1 35,8 34,2 50,1 13,3 2010 70,5 33,7 36,8 52,0 15,5 2015 78,0 34,7 43,2 53,0 16,2 2020 85,5 35,9 49,6 55,4 15,9 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 76,9 46,1 30,8 46,2 15,0 2000 73,4 40,8 32,6 48,1 11,7 2005 72,1 37,5 34,6 49,6 13,9 2010 73,9 36,6 37,4 51,2 16,6 2015 82,8 38,9 43,9 52,0 17,7 2020 90,6 40,7 49,9 54,1 17,6 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 77,1 46,2 30,8 46,2 15,1 2000 74,2 41,5 32,7 47,9 12,0 2005 74,0 39,1 34,9 49,2 14,6 2010 77,3 39,5 37,9 50,4 17,6 2015 87,5 43,0 44,6 51,0 19,1 2020 95,7 45,4 50,3 52,8 19,4 Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 20-39 4059 6079 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 284211 253729 206406 134111 12877 891334 1975 274171 259126 217080 148352 14872 913600 1980 279945 269897 243269 142304 19595 955010 1985 281209 295719 242482 149866 26887 996163 1990 274170 313974 244710 164139 31132 1028125 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 252983 301834 259141 177240 36617 1027815 2000 225275 295716 276838 194429 30583 1022841 2005 202833 286618 291910 196912 38757 1017030 2010 188815 271304 302655 199407 46903 1009084 2015 183742 250774 292788 216206 52637 996147 2020 178317 223335 287371 233521 54014 976558 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 254082 302283 259243 177468 36923 1029999 2000 230849 298750 277243 195666 31827 1034335 2005 215246 293635 292718 199412 41408 1042419 2010 209635 282301 304059 203111 51502 1050608 2015 212719 265667 295808 221022 59445 1054661 2020 212854 243509 293563 239484 62565 1051975 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 255178 302735 259336 177667 37194 1032110 2000 236455 301775 277619 196766 32963 1045578 2005 227894 300639 293461 201657 43924 1067575 2010 231118 293283 305361 206464 56029 1092255 2015 242977 280551 298711 225412 66403 1114054 2020 249496 263713 299629 244933 71650 1129421 Tabela 9: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 9: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992 = 100) Indeces of population increase/decrease (1992 = 100) Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 106 82 69 79 39 87 1975 102 84 72 87 45 89 1980 105 88 81 84 59 93 1985 105 96 81 88 81 97 1990 102 102 82 96 94 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 95 98 104 104 110 100 2000 84 96 111 114 92 99 2005 76 93 117 116 117 99 2010 71 88 121 117 141 98 2015 69 81 117 127 158 97 2020 67 72 115 137 162 95 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 95 98 104 104 111 100 2000 86 97 111 115 96 101 2005 80 95 117 117 124 101 2010 78 92 122 119 155 102 2015 80 86 119 130 179 103 2020 80 79 118 141 188 102 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 95 98 104 104 112 100 2000 88 98 111 116 99 102 2005 85 97 118 118 132 104 2010 86 95 122 121 168 106 2015 91 91 120 132 200 108 2020 93 85 120 144 215 110 Tabela 10: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 10: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 31,89 28,47 23,16 15,05 1,44 100 1975 30,01 28,36 23,76 16,24 1,63 100 1980 29,31 28,26 25,47 14,90 2,05 100 1985 28,23 29,69 24,34 15,04 2,70 100 1990 26,67 30,54 23,80 15,96 3,03 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 24,61 29,37 25,21 17,24 3,56 100 2000 22,02 28,91 27,07 19,01 2,99 100 2005 19,94 28,18 28,70 19,36 3,81 100 2010 18,71 26,89 29,99 19,76 4,65 100 2015 18,45 25,17 29,39 21,70 5,28 100 2020 18,26 22,87 29,43 23,91 5,53 100 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 24,67 29,35 25,17 17,23 3,58 100 2000 22,32 28,88 26,80 18,92 3,08 100 2005 20,65 28,17 28,08 19,13 3,97 100 2010 19,95 26,87 28,94 19,33 4,90 100 2015 20,17 25,19 28,05 20,96 5,64 100 2020 20,23 23,15 27,91 22,77 5,95 100 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 24,72 29,33 25,13 17,21 3,60 100 2000 22,61 28,86 26,55 18,82 3,15 100 2005 21,35 28,16 27,49 18,89 4,11 100 2010 21,16 26,85 27,96 18,90 5,13 100 2015 21,81 25,18 26,81 20,23 5,96 100 2020 22,09 23,35 26,53 21,69 6,34 100 Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19) + (60+) 0-19 60+ 40-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 93,7 61,8 31,9 44,9 8,8 1975 91,8 57,6 34,3 45,6 9,1 1980 86,1 54,6 31,5 47,4 12,1 1985 85,1 52,2 32,8 45,1 15,2 1990 84,0 49,1 35,0 43,8 15,9 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 83,2 45,1 38,1 46,2 17,1 2000 78,6 39,3 39,3 48,4 13,6 2005 75,8 35,1 40,7 50,5 16,4 2010 75,8 32,9 42,9 52,7 19,0 2015 83,3 33,8 49,5 53,9 19,6 2020 91,2 34,9 56,3 56,3 18,8 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 83,4 45,2 38,2 46,2 17,2 2000 79,6 40,1 39,5 48,1 14,0 2005 77,8 36,7 41,1 49,9 17,2 2010 79,2 35,8 43,4 51,9 20,2 2015 87,8 37,9 50,0 52,7 21,2 2020 95,9 39,6 56,2 54,7 20,7 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 83,6 45,4 38,2 46,1 17,3 2000 80,5 40,8 39,6 47,9 14,3 2005 79,7 38,4 41,3 49,4 17,9 2010 82,5 38,6 43,8 51,0 21,3 2015 92,3 41,9 50,4 51,6 22,8 2020 100,5 44,3 56,2 53,2 22,6 Tabela 12: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 12: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 2039 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 295100 258746 165459 95633 6423 821361 1975 287706 277706 182914 103425 6898 858647 1980 294427 286397 216080 94295 8032 899230 1985 297947 307245 229999 93641 11844 940676 1990 288014 321311 243133 102750 13044 968252 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 266306 306179 263377 118421 15298 969581 2000 236752 300015 280349 136674 11867 965657 2005 213704 293078 290865 148275 14183 960105 2010 199116 281176 295029 157849 18738 951908 2015 193896 260490 282841 177638 23507 938372 2020 188169 231741 278603 192336 26214 917063 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 267462 306651 263545 118671 15441 971770 2000 242366 303169 281078 138111 12454 977178 2005 226459 300052 292428 151592 15485 986016 2010 220738 291631 297943 163357 21248 994917 2015 224129 273993 288313 185543 27735 999713 2020 224292 250194 287644 202621 32105 996856 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 268609 307118 263719 118938 15593 973977 2000 248023 306319 281794 139532 13054 988722 2005 239470 307010 293911 154766 16823 1011980 2010 243072 302066 300685 168557 23870 1038250 2015 255746 287463 293551 192948 32253 1061961 2020 262667 268665 296418 212213 38604 1078567 ZAVOD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE ZA STATISTIKO SJASriSTICAL OfflCE OF THE BEPUBUC Of SUTVENIA Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992=100) Indeces of population Increase/decrease (1992=100) Velike starostne skupine I Broad age groups 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 105 82 54 87 46 85 1975 102 88 60 94 49 89 1980 105 91 71 86 57 93 1985 106 98 75 85 85 97 1990 102 102 80 94 93 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 95 97 105 108 109 100 2000 84 95 112 125 85 100 2005 76 93 116 135 101 99 2010 71 89 118 144 134 98 2015 69 83 113 162 168 97 2020 67 74 111 175 187 95 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 95 97 105 108 110 100 2000 86 96 112 126 89 101 2005 80 95 117 138 111 102 2010 78 93 119 149 152 103 2015 80 87 115 169 198 103 2020 80 79 115 185 229 103 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 95 98 105 109 111 100 2000 88 97 113 127 93 102 2005 85 98 118 141 120 104 2010 86 96 120 154 170 107 2015 91 91 117 176 230 109 2020 93 85 119 194 276 111 Tabela 14: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 14: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 35,93 31,50 20,14 11,64 0,78 100 1975 33,51 32,34 21,30 12,05 0,80 100 1980 32,74 31,85 24,03 10,49 0,89 100 1985 31,67 32,66 24,45 9,95 1,26 100 1990 29,75 33,18 25,11 10,61 1,35 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 27,47 31,58 27,16 12,21 1,58 100 2000 24,52 31,07 29,03 14,15 1,23 100 2005 22,26 30,53 30,30 15,44 1,48 100 2010 20,92 29,54 30,99 16,58 1,97 100 2015 20,66 27,76 30,14 18,93 2,51 100 2020 20,52 25,27 30,38 20,97 2,86 100 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 27,52 31,56 27,12 12,21 1,59 100 2000 24,80 31,02 28,76 14,13 1,27 100 2005 22,97 30,43 29,66 15,37 1,57 100 2010 22,19 29,31 29,95 16,42 2,14 100 2015 22,42 27,41 28,84 18,56 2,77 100 2020 22,50 25,10 28,86 20,33 3,22 100 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 27,58 31,53 27,08 12,21 1,60 100 2000 25,09 30,98 28,50 14,11 1,32 100 2005 23,66 30,34 29,04 15,29 1,66 100 2010 23,41 29,09 28,96 16,23 2,30 100 2015 24,08 27,07 27,64 18,17 3,04 100 2020 24,35 24,91 27,48 19,68 3,58 100 Tabela 15: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 15: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19) + (60+) 0-19 60+ 40-59 80+ 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1970 93,6 69,6 24,1 39,0 6,3 1975 86,4 62,5 24,0 39,7 6,3 1980 79,0 58,6 20,4 43,0 7,8 1985 75,1 55,5 19,6 42,8 11,2 1990 71,5 51,0 20,5 43,1 11,3 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure low 1995 70,2 46,8 23,5 46,2 11,4 2000 66,4 40,8 25,6 48,3 8,0 2005 64,4 36,6 27,8 49,8 8,7 2010 65,2 34,6 30,6 51,2 10,6 2015 72,7 35,7 37,0 52,1 11,7 2020 79,7 36,9 42,8 54,6 12,0 Srednja varianta De jure medium 1995 70,4 46,9 23,5 46,2 11,5 2000 67,3 41,5 25,8 48,1 8,3 2005 66,4 38,2 28,2 49,4 9,3 2010 68,8 37,4 31,3 50,5 11,5 2015 77,8 39,9 37,9 51,3 13,0 2020 85,3 41,7 43,6 53,5 13,7 Visoka varianta De jure high 1995 70,6 47,1 23,6 46,2 11,6 2000 68,1 42,2 25,9 47,9 8,6 2005 68,4 39,9 28,6 48,9 9,8 2010 72,3 40,3 31,9 49,9 12,4 2015 82,8 44,0 38,8 50,5 14,3 2020 90,9 46,5 44,4 52,5 15,4 Tabela 16: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 16: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ 0-19 2039 40-59 6079 80+ TOTAL Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 559016 492166 370412 255188'» ... 1676782 1981 568673 554354 446633 231804 33198 1834662 1992 539294 605173 476921 277803 47090 1946281 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low 1995 510594 591865 497631 292678 51717 1944485 2000 454124 580562 532410 326060 42276 1935432 2005 408511 566008 560701 336529 52685 1924434 2010 379409 541558 579410 343931 65208 1909516 2015 369488 502696 561093 376595 75289 1885161 2020 359479 447275 552334 409232 78756 1847076 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 512799 592797 498143 293335 52167 1949241 2000 465096 586762 534025 329296 44101 1959280 2005 433231 580000 563644 343322 56625 1976822 2010 421165 563015 584332 354411 72322 1995245 2015 427851 531054 570229 390723 86367 2006224 2020 429254 485694 568193 426931 93276 2003348 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 515007 593718 498647 293987 52587 1953946 2000 476143 592945 535574 332410 45832 1982904 2005 458437 593962 566435 349772 60472 2029078 2010 464292 584423 588981 364329 79479 2081504 2015 488879 559363 579005 404050 97923 2129220 2020 503382 524150 583668 443585 109016 2163801 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 514341 592797 498143 293335 52167 1950783 2000 469276 586762 534025 329296 44101 1963460 2005 440158 580000 563644 343322 56625 1983749 2010 430957 563015 584332 354411 72322 2005037 2015 439108 532585 570229 390723 86367 2019012 2020 441156 489843 568193 426931 93276 2019399 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ V The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 17: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 17: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups for more than Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992=100) Indeces of population increase/decrease (1992=100) Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 104 81 78 921> 86 1981 105 92 94 83 70 94 1992 100 100 100 100 100 100 Leto projekcije 7ear of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low 1995 95 98 104 105 110 100 2000 84 96 112 117 90 99 2005 76 94 118 121 112 99 2010 70 89 121 124 138 98 2015 69 83 118 136 160 97 2020 67 74 116 147 167 95 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding .... medium 1995 95 98 104 106 111 100 2000 86 97 112 119 94 101 2005 80 96 118 124 120 102 2010 78 93 123 128 154 103 2015 79 88 120 141 183 103 2020 80 80 119 154 198 103 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding high 1995 95 98 105 106 112 100 2000 88 98 112 120 97 102 2005 85 98 119 126 128 104 2010 86 97 123 131 169 107 2015 91 92 121 145 208 109 2020 93 87 122 160 232 111 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding medium adjusted fertility 1995 95 98 104 106 111 100 2000 87 97 112 119 94 101 2005 82 96 118 124 120 102 2010 80 93 123 128 154 103 2015 81 88 120 141 183 104 2020 82 81 119 154 198 104 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 11 The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 18: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 18: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 33,34 29,35 22,09 15,221> ... 100 1981 31,00 30,22 24,34 12,63 1,81 100 1992 27,71 31,09 24,50 14,27 2,42 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding .... low 1995 26,26 30,44 25,59 15,05 2,66 100 2000 23,46 30,00 27,51 16,85 2,18 100 2005 21,23 29,41 29,14 17,49 2,74 100 2010 19,87 28,36 30,34 18,01 3,41 100 2015 19,60 26,67 29,76 19,98 3,99 100 2020 19,46 24,22 29,90 22,16 4,26 100 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 26,31 30,41 25,56 15,05 2,68 100 2000 23,74 29,95 27,26 16,81 2,25 100 2005 21,92 29,34 28,51 17,37 2,86 100 2010 21,11 28,22 29,29 17,76 3,62 100 2015 21,33 26,47 28,42 19,48 4,30 100 2020 21,43 24,24 28,36 21,31 4,66 100 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 26,36 30,39 25,52 15,05 2,69 100 2000 24,01 29,90 27,01 16,76 2,31 100 2005 22,59 29,27 27,92 17,24 2,98 100 2010 22,31 28,08 28,30 17,50 3,82 100 2015 22,96 26,27 27,19 18,98 4,60 100 2020 23,26 24,22 26,97 20,50 5,04 100 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 26,37 30,39 25,54 15,04 2,67 100 2000 23,90 29,88 27,20 16,77 2,25 100 2005 22,19 29,24 28,41 17,31 2,85 100 2010 21,49 28,08 29,14 17,68 3,61 100 2015 21,75 26,38 28,24 19,35 4,28 100 2020 21,85 24,26 28,14 21,14 4,62 100 1> Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ ' The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 19: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 19: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19)+ (60+) 0-19 60 + 40-59 80+ 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 94,4 64,8 29,6 42,9 ...1) 1981 80,0 56,8 23,2 44,6 12,5 1992 79,9 49,8 30,0 44,1 14,5 Leto projekcije Tear of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low 1995 78,5 46,9 31,6 45,7 15,0 2000 73,9 40,8 33,1 47,8 11,5 2005 70,8 36,3 34,5 49,8 13,5 2010 70,3 33,8 36,5 51,7 15,9 2015 77,2 34,7 42,5 52,7 16,7 2020 84,8 36,0 48,8 55,3 16,1 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 78,7 47,0 31,7 45,7 15,1 2000 74,8 41,5 33,3 47,6 11,8 2005 72,9 37,9 35,0 49,3 14,2 2010 73,9 36,7 37,2 50,9 16,9 2015 82,2 38,9 43,3 51,8 18,1 2020 90,1 40,7 49,4 53,9 17,9 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding .... high 1995 78,9 47,1 31,7 45,6 15,2 2000 75,7 42,2 33,5 47,5 12,1 2005 74,9 39,5 35,4 48,8 14,7 2010 77,4 39,6 37,8 50,2 17,9 2015 87,0 42,9 44,1 50,9 19,5 2020 95,3 45,4 49,9 52,7 19,7 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 78,8 47,1 31,7 45,7 15,1 2000 75,2 41,9 33,3 47,6 11,8 2005 73,5 38,5 35,0 49,3 14,2 2010 74,8 37,6 37,2 50,9 16,9 2015 83,1 39,8 43,3 51,7 18,1 2020 90,9 41,7 49,2 53,7 17,9 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ ' The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ ZAVOD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE ZA STATISTIKO STASTISTICAL OFFICf Of THE AEPUBUC Of SIOVENM Tabela 20: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 20: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 2039 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 272605 238720 209832 150728" ... 871885 1981 276302 271354 237317 139812 22900 947685 1992 262538 300022 240235 169289 33132 1005216 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low 1995 248652 294473 248401 175867 36474 1003867 2000 221347 288635 265731 192345 30458 998516 2005 198886 279927 281599 193494 38584 992490 2010 184647 265735 293817 193852 46633 984684 2015 179776 246478 286012 207838 52169 972273 2020 174908 219435 280855 225069 53282 953549 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 249731 294931 248626 176185 36780 1006253 2000 226815 291675 266392 193878 31699 1010459 2005 211083 286949 282716 196538 41228 1018514 2010 205135 276736 295545 198317 51236 1026969 2015 208341 261357 289381 213547 59019 1031645 2020 209015 239513 287389 231984 61929 1029830 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 250810 295381 248841 176481 37050 1008563 2000 232318 294705 267009 195293 32829 1022154 2005 223510 293954 283763 199355 43738 1044320 2010 226282 287718 297175 202467 55769 1069411 2015 238190 276221 292627 218874 66037 1091949 2020 245227 259611 293801 238438 71155 1108232 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 250480 294931 248626 176185 36780 1007002 2000 228848 291675 266392 193878 31699 1012492 2005 214452 286949 282716 196538 41228 1021883 2010 209897 276736 295545 198317 51236 1031731 2015 213816 262104 289381 213547 59019 1037867 2020 214803 241535 287389 231984 61929 1037640 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 'i The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 21: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 21: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992=100) Indeces of population increase/decrease (1992=100) Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 104 80 87 891) ... 87 1981 105 90 99 83 69 94 1992 100 100 100 100 100 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding .... low 1995 95 98 103 104 110 100 2000 84 96 111 114 92 99 2005 76 93 117 114 116 99 2010 70 89 122 115 141 98 2015 68 82 119 123 157 97 2020 67 73 117 133 161 95 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium 1995 95 98 103 104 111 100 2000 86 97 111 115 96 101 2005 80 96 118 116 124 101 2010 78 92 123 117 155 102 2015 79 87 120 126 178 103 2020 80 80 120 137 187 102 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 96 98 104 104 112 100 2000 88 98 111 115 99 102 2005 85 98 118 118 132 104 2010 86 96 124 120 168 106 2015 91 92 122 129 199 109 2020 93 87 122 141 215 110 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 95 98 103 104 111 100 2000 87 97 111 115 96 101 2005 82 96 118 116 124 102 2010 80 92 123 117 155 103 2015 81 87 120 126 178 103 2020 82 81 120 137 187 103 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ " The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 22: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 22: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine /Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 2039 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 31,27 27,38 24,07 17,291) ... 100 1981 29,16 28,63 25,04 14,75 2,42 100 1992 26,12 29,85 23,90 16,84 3,30 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low 1995 24,77 29,33 24,74 17,52 3,63 100 2000 22,17 28,91 26,61 19,26 3,05 100 2005 20,04 28,20 28,37 19,50 3,89 100 2010 18,75 26,99 29,84 19,69 4,74 100 2015 18,49 25,35 29,42 21,38 5,37 100 2020 18,34 23,01 29,45 23,60 5,59 100 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium 1995 24,82 29,31 24,71 17,51 3,66 100 2000 22,45 28,87 26,36 19,19 3,14 100 2005 20,72 28,17 27,76 19,30 4,05 100 2010 19,97 26,95 28,78 19,31 4,99 100 2015 20,20 25,33 28,05 20,70 5,72 100 2020 20,30 23,26 27,91 22,53 6,01 100 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 24,87 29,29 24,67 17,50 3,67 100 2000 22,73 28,83 26,12 19,11 3,21 100 2005 21,40 28,15 27,17 19,09 4,19 100 2010 21,16 26,90 27,79 18,93 5,21 100 2015 21,81 25,30 26,80 20,04 6,05 100 2020 22,13 23,43 26,51 21,52 6,42 100 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 24,87 29,29 24,69 17,50 3,65 100 2000 22,60 28,81 26,31 19,15 3,13 100 2005 20,99 28,08 27,67 19,23 4,03 100 2010 20,34 26,82 28,65 19,22 4,97 100 2015 20,60 25,25 27,88 20,58 5,69 100 2020 20,70 23,28 27,70 22,36 5,97 100 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 1 The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Sii Tabela 23: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 23: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti In kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19)+ (60+) 0-19 60+ 40-59 80+ 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 94,4 60,8 33,6 46,8 ...1) 1981 81,8 54,3 27,5 46,7 14,1 1992 86,1 48,6 37,5 44,5 16,4 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low 1995 84,9 45,8 39,1 45,8 17,2 2000 80,1 39,9 40,2 47,9 13,7 2005 76,7 35,4 41,3 50,1 16,6 2010 76,0 33,0 43,0 52,5 19,4 2015 82,6 33,8 48,8 53,7 20,1 2020 90,6 35,0 55,6 56,1 19,1 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium 1995 85,1 45,9 39,2 45,7 17,3 2000 81,1 40,6 40,4 47,7 14,1 2005 78,8 37,1 41,7 49,6 17,3 2010 79,5 35,8 43,6 51,6 20,5 2015 87,3 37,8 49,5 52,5 21,7 2020 95,5 39,7 55,8 54,5 21,1 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding .... high 1995 85,3 46,1 39,2 45,7 17,4 2000 82,0 41,4 40,6 47,5 14,4 2005 80,8 38,7 42,1 49,1 18,0 2010 82,8 38,7 44,2 50,8 21,6 2015 92,0 41,9 50,1 51,4 23,2 2020 100,3 44,3 55,9 53,1 23,0 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 85,3 46,1 39,2 45,7 17,3 2000 81,4 41,0 40,4 47,7 14,1 2005 79,4 37,6 41,7 49,6 17,3 2010 80,3 36,7 43,6 51,6 20,5 2015 88,2 38,8 49,4 52,5 21,7 2020 96,2 40,6 55,6 54,3 21,1 '1 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ ' The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 24: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 24: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Absolutni podatki Absolute numbers Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 286411 253446 160580 104460’’ 804897 1981 292371 283000 209316 91992 10298 886977 1992 276756 305151 236686 108514 13958 941065 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low 1995 261942 297392 249230 116811 15243 940618 2000 232777 291927 266679 133715 11818 936916 2005 209625 286081 279102 143035 14101 931944 2010 194762 275823 285593 150079 18575 924832 2015 189712 256218 275081 168757 23120 912888 2020 184571 227840 271479 184163 25474 893527 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 263068 297866 249517 117150 15387 942988 2000 238281 295087 267633 135418 12402 948821 2005 222148 293051 280928 146784 15397 958308 2010 216030 286279 288787 156094 21086 968276 2015 219510 269697 280848 177176 27348 974579 2020 220239 246181 280804 194947 31347 973518 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 264197 298337 249806 117506 15537 945383 2000 243825 298240 268565 137117 13003 960750 2005 234927 300008 282672 150417 16734 984758 2010 238010 296705 291806 161862 23710 1012093 2015 250689 283142 286378 185176 31886 1037271 2020 258155 264539 289867 205147 37861 1055569 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 263861 297866 249517 117150 15387 943781 2000 240428 295087 267633 135418 12402 950968 2005 225706 293051 280928 146784 15397 961866 2010 221060 286279 288787 156094 21086 973306 2015 225292 270481 280848 177176 27348 981145 2020 226353 248308 280804 194947 31347 981759 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ ’I The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+_______________________________________ Tabela 25: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 25: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Spremembe v naraščanju/nazadovanju števila prebivalstva (1992 = 100) Indeces of population increase/decrease (1992=100) Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Tear of observation 1971 103 83 68 96” 86 1981 106 93 88 85 74 94 1992 100 100 100 100 100 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low 1995 95 97 105 108 109 100 2000 84 96 113 123 85 100 2005 76 94 118 132 101 99 2010 70 90 121 138 133 98 2015 69 84 116 156 166 97 2020 67 75 115 170 183 95 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding .... medium 1995 95 98 105 108 110 100 2000 86 97 113 125 89 101 2005 80 96 119 135 110 102 2010 78 94 122 144 151 103 2015 79 88 119 163 196 104 2020 80 81 119 180 225 103 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding high 1995 95 98 106 108 111 100 2000 88 98 113 126 93 102 2005 85 98 119 139 120 105 2010 86 97 123 149 170 108 2015 91 93 121 171 228 110 2020 93 87 122 189 271 112 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 95 98 105 108 110 100 2000 87 97 113 125 89 101 2005 82 96 119 135 110 102 2010 80 94 122 144 151 103 2015 81 89 119 163 196 104 2020 82 81 119 180 225 104 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 1 The 1971 Census data for population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 26: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 26: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups Deleži (%) po starostnih skupinah Percentage by age groups Velike starostne skupine 1 Broad age groups SKUPAJ TOTAL 0-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80+ Leto opazovanja Year of observation 1971 35,58 31,49 19,95 12,98" 100 1981 32,96 31,91 23,60 10,37 1,16 100 1992 29,41 32,43 25,15 11,53 1,48 100 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding .... low 1995 27,85 31,62 26,50 12,42 1,62 100 2000 24,85 31,16 28,46 14,27 1,26 100 2005 22,49 30,70 29,95 15,35 1,51 100 2010 21,06 29,82 30,88 16,23 2,01 100 2015 20,78 28,07 30,13 18,49 2,53 100 2020 20,66 25,50 30,38 20,61 2,85 100 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium 1995 27,90 31,59 26,46 12,42 1,63 100 2000 25,11 31,10 28,21 14,27 1,31 100 2005 23,18 30,58 29,32 15,32 1,61 100 2010 22,31 29,57 29,82 16,12 2,18 100 2015 22,52 27,67 28,82 18,18 2,81 100 2020 22,62 25,29 28,84 20,03 3,22 100 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 27,95 31,56 26,42 12,43 1,64 100 2000 25,38 31,04 27,95 14,27 1,35 100 2005 23,86 30,47 28,70 15,27 1,70 100 2010 23,52 29,32 28,83 15,99 2,34 100 2015 24,17 27,30 27,61 17,85 3,07 100 2020 24,46 25,06 27,46 19,43 3,59 100 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 27,96 31,56 26,44 12,41 1,63 100 2000 25,28 31,03 28,14 14,24 1,30 100 2005 23,47 30,47 29,21 15,26 1,60 100 2010 22,71 29,41 29,67 16,04 2,17 100 2015 22,96 27,57 28,62 18,06 2,79 100 2020 23,06 25,29 28,60 19,86 3,19 100 " Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 1 The 1971 Census data lor population by age ends at 65+ Tabela 27: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah Table 27: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups____________________________________ Koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja Dependency ratios and ageing indices (0-19)+ (60+) 0-19 60 + 40-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 20-59 Leto opazovanja Tear of observation 1971 94,4 69,2 25,2 38,8 1) 1981 78,1 59,4 18,7 42,5 10,1 1992 73,7 51,1 22,6 43,7 11,4 Leto projekcije Year of projection Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low 1995 72,1 47,9 24,2 45,6 11,5 2000 67,7 41,7 26,1 47,7 8,1 2005 64,9 37,1 27,8 49,4 9,0 2010 64,7 34,7 30,0 50,9 11,0 2015 71,8 35,7 36,1 51,8 12,0 2020 78,9 37,0 42,0 54,4 12,2 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium 1995 72,3 48,1 24,2 45,6 11,6 2000 68,6 42,3 26,3 47,6 8,4 2005 67,0 38,7 28,3 48,9 9,5 2010 68,4 37,6 30,8 50,2 11,9 2015 77,0 39,9 37,1 51,0 13,4 2020 84,7 41,8 42,9 53,3 13,9 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding ..., high 1995 72,5 48,2 24,3 45,6 11,7 2000 69,5 43,0 26,5 47,4 8,7 2005 69,0 40,3 28,7 48,5 10,0 2010 72,0 40,4 31,5 49,6 12,8 2015 82,1 44,0 38,1 50,3 14,7 2020 90,4 46,6 43,8 52,3 15,6 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility 1995 72,4 48,2 24,2 45,6 11,6 2000 69,0 42,7 26,3 47,6 8,4 2005 67,6 39,3 28,3 48,9 9,5 2010 69,3 38,4 30,8 50,2 11,9 2015 78,0 40,9 37,1 50,9 13,4 2020 85,5 42,8 42,8 53,1 13,9 11 Za Popis leta 1971 so za starostno sestavo na razpolago le podatki do starostne skupine 65+ 11 The 1971 Census data tor population by age ends at 65+_______________________________________ Sii Tabela 28: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 28: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 7995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure low Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 102329 94139 95883 96262 91961 82954 5-9 124867 102210 94040 95789 96178 91889 10-14 141238 124759 102130 93974 95724 96117 15-19 150855 140919 124484 101906 93775 95526 20-24 142888 150057 140191 123853 101387 93298 25-29 150573 142107 149272 139494 123257 100896 30-34 154853 149822 141431 148602 138911 122769 35-39 159699 153745 148802 140531 147709 138113 40-44 163430 157915 152130 147335 139233 146391 45-49 128564 160506 155224 149725 145144 137242 50-54 119484 124872 156029 151150 146075 141739 55-59 111040 113894 119392 149474 145177 140602 60-64 108063 103385 106373 112052 140697 137007 65-69 90026 97595 93714 96961 102824 129391 70-74 67256 77290 84036 81322 84809 90614 75-79 30316 52833 61064 66921 65514 68845 80-84 32646 20000 35488 41457 45881 45378 85-89 14543 16214 10182 18502 21882 24347 90+ 4726 6236 7270 5682 8381 10503 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 1997396 1988498 1977135 1960992 1934519 1893621 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 368434 321108 292053 206025 283863 270960 0-19 519289 462027 416537 387931 377638 366486 15-49 1050862 1055071 1011534 951446 889416 834235 15-59 1281386 1293837 1286955 1252070 1180668 1116576 15-64 1389449 1397222 1393328 1364122 1321365 1253583 60+ 347576 373553 398127 422897 469988 506085 65+ 239513 270168 291754 310845 329291 369078 80+ 51915 42450 52940 65641 76144 80228 85+ 19269 22450 17452 24184 30263 34850 Tabela 29: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 29: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure low Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 49820 45779 46628 46812 44720 40340 5-9 60828 49778 45746 46596 46784 44697 10-14 69025 60793 49752 45725 46576 46766 15-19 73310 68925 60707 49682 45662 46514 20-24 70123 73072 68705 60510 49514 45503 25-29 75716 69922 72874 68525 60356 49381 30-34 77474 75538 69769 72725 68397 60250 35-39 78521 77184 75270 69544 72507 68201 40-44 79571 78032 76730 74855 69193 72155 45-49 63014 78759 77275 76037 74220 68634 50-54 59668 61949 77476 76091 74950 73198 55-59 56888 58098 60429 75672 74425 73384 60-64 58996 54664 55942 58365 73214 72102 65-69 53780 55315 51440 52847 55402 69584 70-74 44288 48103 49745 46600 48171 50811 75-79 20176 36347 39785 41595 39419 41024 80-84 22438 14046 25644 28440 30174 28941 85-89 10545 11771 7539 14033 15810 16974 90+ 3634 4766 5574 4430 6653 8099 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1027815 1022841 1017030 1009084 996147 976558 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 179673 156350 142126 139133 138080 131803 0-19 252983 225275 202833 188815 183742 178317 15-49 517729 521432 501330 471878 439849 410638 15-59 634285 641479 639235 623641 589224 557220 15-64 693281 696143 695177 682006 662438 629322 60+ 213857 225012 235669 246310 268843 287535 65+ 154861 170348 179727 187945 195629 215433 80+ 36617 30583 38757 46903 52637 54014 85+ 14179 16537 13113 18463 22463 25073 Tabela 30: Table 30: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu In petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure low Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 52509 48360 49255 49450 47241 42614 5-9 64039 52432 48294 49193 49394 47192 10-14 72213 63966 52378 48249 49148 49351 15-19 77545 71994 63777 52224 48113 49012 20-24 72765 76985 71486 63343 51873 47795 25-29 74857 72185 76398 70969 62901 51515 30-34 77379 74284 71662 75877 70514 62519 35-39 81178 76561 73532 70987 75202 69912 40-44 83859 79883 75400 72480 70040 74236 45-49 65550 81747 77949 73688 70924 68608 50-54 59816 62923 78553 75059 71125 68541 55-59 54152 55796 58963 73802 70752 67218 60-64 49067 48721 50431 53687 67483 64905 65-69 36246 42280 42274 44114 47422 59807 70-74 22968 29187 34291 34722 36638 39803 75-79 10140 16486 21279 25326 26095 27821 80-84 10208 5954 9844 13017 15707 16437 85-89 3998 4443 2643 4469 6072 7373 90+ 1092 1470 1696 1252 1728 2404 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 969581 965657 960105 951908 938372 917063 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 188761 164758 149927 146892 145783 139157 0-19 266306 236752 213704 199116 193896 188169 15-49 533133 533639 510204 479568 449567 423597 15-59 647101 652358 647720 628429 591444 559356 15-64 696168 701079 698151 682116 658927 624261 60+ 133719 148541 162458 176587 201145 218550 65+ 84652 99820 112027 122900 133662 153645 80+ 15298 11867 14183 18738 23507 26214 85+ 5090 5913 4339 5721 7800 9777 Tabela 31: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 31: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure medium Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 104204 102046 108808 112884 110374 102322 5-9 124943 104502 102609 109377 113460 110964 10-14 141270 124969 104630 102745 109516 113598 15-19 151127 141698 125658 105367 103498 110262 20-24 143520 152684 144140 128202 108010 106169 25-29 150775 144805 154889 146439 130605 110503 30-34 154895 150543 144959 155058 146698 130954 35-39 159744 153887 149699 144233 154347 146077 40-44 163485 158075 152463 148447 143138 153234 45-49 128623 160768 155695 150409 146620 141481 50-54 119551 125180 156753 152160 147328 143784 55-59 111129 114298 120235 150986 147035 142708 60-64 108172 103897 107446 113730 143357 140031 65-69 90153 98229 94999 98995 105605 133502 70-74 67392 78030 85677 83772 88167 94821 75-79 30422 53621 62882 69971 69436 73751 80-84 32852 20531 37270 44576 50395 50661 85-89 14702 16992 11099 20921 25589 29240 90+ 4810 6758 8524 7253 11196 14769 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 2001769 2011513 2028435 2045525 2054374 2048831 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 370417 331517 316047 325006 333350 326884 0-19 521544 473215 441705 430373 436848 437146 15-49 1052169 1062460 1027503 978155 932916 898680 15-59 1282849 1301938 1304491 1281301 1227279 1185172 15-64 1391021 1405835 1411937 1395031 1370636 1325203 60+ 348503 378058 407897 439218 493745 536775 65+ 240331 274161 300451 325488 350388 396744 80+ 52364 44281 56893 72750 87180 94670 85+ 19512 23750 19623 28174 36785 44009 Tabela 32: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 32: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure medium Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 64 50732 49626 52913 54892 53669 49753 5-9 60866 50898 49923 53212 55194 53977 10-14 69040 60898 50977 50005 53297 55277 15-19 73444 69427 61433 51526 50559 53847 20-24 70437 74635 71161 63192 53309 52350 25-29 75816 71124 75741 72287 64342 54479 30-34 77491 75763 71190 75811 72377 64455 35-39 78539 77228 75543 71011 75639 72225 40-44 79593 78089 76841 75202 70729 75355 45-49 63039 78854 77439 76267 74690 70285 50-54 59692 62062 77724 76431 75367 73858 55-59 56919 58238 60714 76159 75022 74065 60-64 59034 54841 56302 58914 74050 73058 65-69 53836 55563 51915 53566 56349 70941 70-74 44360 48460 50457 47587 49467 52369 75-79 20238 36802 40738 43044 41156 43116 80-84 22568 14376 26761 30234 32560 31566 85-89 10656 12297 8156 15681 18152 19863 90+ 3699 5154 6491 5587 8733 11136 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1029999 1034335 1042419 1050608 1054661 1051975 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 180638 161422 153813 158109 162160 159007 0-19 254082 230849 215246 209635 212719 212854 15-49 518359 525120 509348 485296 461645 442996 15-59 634970 645420 647786 637886 612034 590919 15-64 694004 700261 704088 696800 686084 663977 60+ 214391 227493 240820 254613 280467 302049 65+ 155357 172652 184518 195699 206417 228991 80+ 36923 31827 41408 51502 59445 62565 85+ 14355 17451 14647 21268 26885 30999 Tabela 33: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 33: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure medium Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 53472 52420 55895 57992 56705 52569 5-9 64077 53604 52686 56165 58266 56987 10-14 72230 64071 53653 52740 56219 58321 15-19 77683 72271 64225 53841 52939 56415 20-24 73083 78049 72979 65010 54701 53819 25-29 74959 73681 79148 74152 66263 56024 30-34 77404 74780 73769 79247 74321 66499 35-39 81205 76659 74156 73222 78708 73852 4044 83892 79986 75622 73245 72409 77879 4549 65584 81914 78256 74142 71930 71196 50-54 59859 63118 79029 75729 71961 69926 55-59 54210 56060 59521 74827 72013 68643 60-64 49138 49056 51144 54816 69307 66973 65-69 36317 42666 43084 45429 49256 62561 70-74 23032 29570 35220 36185 38700 42452 75-79 10184 16819 22144 26927 28280 30635 80-84 10284 6155 10509 14342 17835 19095 85-89 4046 4695 2943 5240 7437 9377 90+ 1111 1604 2033 1666 2463 3633 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 971770 977178 986016 994917 999713 996856 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 189779 170095 162234 166897 171190 167877 0-19 267462 242366 226459 220738 224129 224292 15-49 533810 537340 518155 492859 471271 455684 15-59 647879 656518 656705 643415 615245 594253 15-64 697017 705574 707849 698231 684552 661226 60+ 134112 150565 167077 184605 213278 234726 65+ 84974 101509 115933 129789 143971 167753 80+ 15441 12454 15485 21248 27735 32105 85+ 5157 6299 4976 6906 9900 13010 Tabela 34: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 34: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure high Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 106078 110028 122151 130389 130067 123452 5-9 125016 106793 111255 123381 131631 131321 10-14 141298 125182 107127 111595 123722 131971 15-19 151395 142475 126831 108825 113303 125419 20-24 144153 155307 148081 132544 114628 119121 25-29 150973 147499 160499 153372 137939 120105 30-34 154937 151261 148480 161507 154474 139126 35-39 159790 154027 150589 147926 160973 154026 40-44 163540 158230 152776 149529 147014 160048 45-49 128682 161021 156139 151045 148037 145667 50-54 119617 125480 157432 153092 148479 145711 55-59 111216 114682 121025 152380 148732 144621 60-64 108281 104387 108449 115281 145790 142782 65-69 90277 98829 96196 100877 108164 137261 70-74 67526 78727 87203 86047 91280 98716 75-79 30521 54355 64575 72816 73126 78387 80-84 33046 21026 38940 47551 54769 55842 85-89 14852 17728 11986 23329 29384 34369 90+ 4889 7263 9821 9019 14503 20043 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 2006087 2034300 2079555 2130505 2176015 2207988 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 372392 342003 340533 365365 385420 386744 0-19 523787 484478 467364 474190 498723 512163 15-49 1053470 1069820 1043395 1004748 976368 963512 15-59 1284303 1309982 1321852 1310220 1273579 1253844 15-64 1392584 1414369 1430301 1425501 1419369 1396626 60+ 349392 382315 417170 454920 517016 567400 65+ 241111 277928 308721 339639 371226 424618 80+ 52787 46017 60747 79899 98656 110254 85+ 19741 24991 21807 32348 43887 54412 Tabela 35: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 35: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure high Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 51644 53508 59400 63399 63237 60019 5-9 60903 52017 54137 60030 64033 63877 10-14 69054 61004 52200 54322 60215 64218 15-19 73577 69926 62157 53367 55492 61382 20-24 70752 76195 73614 65871 57103 59232 25-29 75913 72324 78605 76044 68325 59576 30-34 77511 75985 72607 78894 76355 68657 35-39 78559 77271 75813 72474 78768 76248 4044 79615 78143 76943 75537 72255 78545 4549 63060 78941 77591 76479 75140 71917 50-54 59715 62170 77952 76742 75750 74481 55-59 56946 58365 60975 76603 75566 74686 60-64 59069 55000 56627 59413 74809 73927 65-69 53883 55784 52342 54218 57210 72169 70-74 44425 48777 51095 48479 50644 53789 75-79 20290 37205 41593 44354 42749 45048 80-84 22683 14669 27772 31894 34804 34064 85-89 10755 12776 8736 17279 20482 22791 90+ 3756 5518 7416 6856 11117 14795 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1032110 1045578 1067575 1092255 1114054 1129421 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 181601 166529 165737 177751 187485 188114 0-19 255178 236455 227894 231118 242977 249496 15-49 518987 528785 517330 498666 483438 475557 15-59 635648 649320 656257 652011 634754 624724 15-64 694717 704320 712884 711424 709563 698651 60+ 214861 229729 245581 262493 291815 316583 65+ 155792 174729 188954 203080 217006 242656 80+ 37194 32963 43924 56029 66403 71650 85+ 14511 18294 16152 24135 31599 37586 Tabela 36: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 36: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure high Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 54434 56520 62751 66990 66830 63433 5-9 64113 54776 57118 63351 67598 67444 1014 72244 64178 54927 57273 63507 67753 15-19 77818 72549 64674 55458 57811 64037 2024 73401 79112 74467 66673 57525 59889 25-29 75060 75175 81894 77328 69614 60529 3034 77426 75276 75873 82613 78119 70469 35-39 81231 76756 74776 75452 82205 77778 4044 83925 80087 75833 73992 74759 81503 45-49 65622 82080 78548 74566 72897 73750 5054 59902 63310 79480 76350 72729 71230 55-59 54270 56317 60050 75777 73166 69935 6064 49212 49387 51822 55868 70981 68855 65-69 36394 43045 43854 46659 50954 65092 7074 23101 29950 36108 37568 40636 44927 75-79 10231 17150 22982 28462 30377 33339 8084 10363 6357 11168 15657 19965 21778 85-89 4097 4952 3250 6050 8902 11578 90+ 1133 1745 2405 2163 3386 5248 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 973977 988722 1011980 1038250 1061961 1078567 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 190791 175474 174796 187614 197935 198630 0-19 268609 248023 239470 243072 255746 262667 15-49 534483 541035 526065 506082 492930 487955 15-59 648655 660662 665595 658209 638825 629120 15-64 697867 710049 717417 714077 709806 697975 60+ 134531 152586 171589 192427 225201 250817 65+ 85319 103199 119767 136559 154220 181962 80+ 15593 13054 16823 23870 32253 38604 85+ 5230 6697 5655 8213 12288 16826 Tabela 37: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 37: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 100508 91657 93559 94351 90506 81617 5-9 123460 100394 91562 93468 94270 90436 10-14 139035 123353 100314 91497 93408 94212 15-19 147591 138720 123076 100093 91304 93214 20-24 138696 146806 138003 122455 99580 90837 25-29 146405 137933 146036 137312 121864 99098 30-34 151222 145674 137277 145380 136739 121381 35-39 155542 150149 144692 136411 144513 135959 4044 155272 153850 148621 143316 135195 143270 45-49 120697 152555 151293 146338 141246 133325 50-54 113790 117350 148400 147434 142877 138041 55-59 107872 108655 112387 142322 141775 137698 60-64 106303 100673 101728 105726 134166 134020 65-69 89291 96131 91391 92879 97163 123484 70-74 66900 76696 82816 79364 81305 85695 75-79 30184 52560 60594 65962 63961 66033 80-84 32518 19913 35304 41144 45232 44319 85-89 14491 16151 10139 18404 21717 24005 90+ 4708 6212 7242 5660 8340 10432 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1944485 1935432 1924434 1909516 1885161 1847076 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 363003 315404 285435 279316 278184 266265 0-19 510594 454124 408511 379409 369488 359479 15-49 1015425 1025687 988998 931305 870441 817084 15-59 1237087 1251692 1249785 1221061 1155093 1092823 15-64 1343390 1352365 1351513 1326787 1289259 1226843 60+ 344395 368336 389214 409139 451884 487988 65+ 238092 267663 287486 303413 317718 353968 80+ 51717 42276 52685 65208 75289 78756 85+ 19199 22363 17381 24064 30057 34437 Tabela 38: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 38: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure, excluding low Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 48912 44572 45498 45882 44012 39690 5-9 60123 48872 44540 45467 45856 43990 10-14 67912 60089 48847 44520 45449 45840 15-19 71705 67814 60001 48778 44459 45388 20-24 67936 71473 67596 59809 48611 44303 25-29 73896 67740 71277 67418 59654 48481 30-34 75983 73720 67592 71131 67293 59550 35-39 76658 75702 73462 67377 70920 67101 40-44 75227 76203 75281 73083 67060 70599 45-49 59812 74492 75496 74633 72491 66551 50-54 57618 58853 73332 74393 73615 71544 55-59 55744 56183 57490 71708 72846 72161 60-64 58282 53672 54204 55636 69487 70681 65-69 53414 54701 50560 51259 52863 66103 70-74 44082 47791 49205 45817 46734 48495 75-79 20089 36181 39525 41140 38754 39790 80-84 22351 13986 25525 28255 29840 28449 85-89 10502 11725 7507 13966 15706 16783 90+ 3621 4747 5552 4412 6623 8050 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1003867 998516 992490 984684 972273 953549 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 176947 153533 138885 135869 135317 129520 0-19 248652 221347 198886 184647 179776 174908 15-49 501217 507144 490705 462229 430488 401973 15-59 614579 622180 621527 608330 576949 545678 15-64 672861 675852 675731 663966 646436 616359 60+ 212341 222803 232078 240485 260007 278351 65+ 154059 169131 177874 184849 190520 207670 80+ 36474 30458 38584 46633 52169 53282 85+ 14123 16472 13059 18378 22329 24833 Tabela 39: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 39: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Nizka varianta De jure, excluding ..., low Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 51596 47085 48061 48469 46494 41927 5-9 63337 51522 47022 48001 48414 46446 10-14 71123 63264 51467 46977 47959 48372 15-19 75886 70906 63075 51315 46845 47826 20-24 70760 75333 70407 62646 50969 46534 25-29 72509 70193 74759 69894 62210 50617 30-34 75239 71954 69685 74249 69446 61831 35-39 78884 74447 71230 69034 73593 68858 4044 80045 77647 73340 70233 68135 72671 4549 60885 78063 75797 71705 68755 66774 5054 56172 58497 75068 73041 69262 66497 55-59 52128 52472 54897 70614 68929 65537 60-64 48021 47001 47524 50090 64679 63339 65S9 35877 41430 40831 41620 44300 57381 7074 22818 28905 33611 33547 34571 37200 75-79 10095 16379 21069 24822 25207 26243 8084 10167 5927 9779 12889 15392 15870 85-89 3989 4426 2632 4438 6011 7222 90+ 1087 1465 1690 1248 1717 2382 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 940618 936916 931944 924832 912888 893527 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 186056 161871 146550 143447 142867 136745 0-19 261942 232777 209625 194762 189712 184571 15-49 514208 518543 498293 469076 439953 415111 15-59 622508 629512 628258 612731 578144 547145 15-64 670529 676513 675782 662821 642823 610484 60+ 132054 145533 157136 168654 191877 209637 65+ 84033 98532 109612 118564 127198 146298 80+ 15243 11818 14101 18575 23120 25474 85+ 5076 5891 4322 5686 7728 9604 Tabela 40: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 40: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 102343 99393 106244 110737 108722 100777 5-9 123533 102644 99961 106815 111317 109314 10-14 139064 123562 102773 100100 106954 111457 15-19 147859 139497 124253 103513 100858 107706 20-24 139329 149431 141945 126804 106162 103536 25-29 146603 140629 151650 144255 129208 108662 30-34 151266 146396 140804 151834 144522 129563 35-39 155599 150306 145601 140122 151162 143933 40-44 155338 154037 148980 144449 139121 150134 45-49 120803 152890 151856 147113 142809 137645 50-54 113931 117807 149290 148635 144324 140269 55-59 108071 109291 113518 144135 143975 140145 60-64 106532 101481 103196 107832 137269 137549 65-69 89465 96963 93025 95327 100372 128036 70-74 67050 77499 84643 82115 84995 90217 75-79 30288 53353 62458 69137 68087 71129 80-84 32724 20441 37084 44280 49804 49695 85-89 14649 16927 11051 20817 25420 28900 90+ 4794 6733 8490 7225 11143 14681 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1949241 1959280 1976822 1995245 2006224 2003348 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 364940 325599 308978 317652 326993 321548 0-19 512799 465096 433231 421165 427851 429254 15-49 1016797 1033186 1005089 958090 913842 881179 15-59 1238799 1260284 1267897 1250860 1202141 1161593 15-64 1345331 1361765 1371093 1358692 1339410 1299142 60+ 345502 373397 399947 426733 477090 520207 65+ 238970 271916 296751 318901 339821 382658 80+ 52167 44101 56625 72322 86367 93276 85+ 19443 23660 19541 28042 36563 43581 Tabela 41: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 41: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 49807 48336 51667 53848 52866 49002 5-9 60160 49973 48635 51967 54152 53175 10-14 67926 60192 50053 48718 52050 54235 15-19 71838 68314 60728 50602 49273 52603 20-24 68251 73033 70050 62490 52387 51067 25-29 73993 68941 74143 71179 63639 53559 30-34 76003 73946 69013 74217 71271 63754 35-39 76684 75755 73743 68850 74060 71133 4044 75255 76275 75407 73442 68609 73812 4549 59860 74625 75707 74910 73010 68246 50-54 57681 59045 73668 74834 74136 72305 55-59 55830 56447 57934 72359 73626 73026 60-64 58381 54003 54782 56431 70574 71916 65-69 53493 55055 51229 52226 54080 67723 70-74 44162 48182 50023 46988 48255 50289 75-79 20149 36638 40504 42672 40638 42056 80-84 22481 14314 26640 30061 32276 31167 85-89 10613 12251 8122 15610 18048 19686 90+ 3686 5134 6466 5565 8695 11076 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 1006253 1010459 1018514 1026969 1031645 1029830 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 177893 158501 150355 154533 159068 156412 0-19 249731 226815 211083 205135 208341 209015 15-49 501884 510889 498791 475690 452249 434174 15-59 615395 626381 630393 622883 600011 579505 15-64 673776 680384 685175 679314 670585 651421 60+ 212965 225577 237766 249553 272566 293913 65+ 154584 171574 182984 193122 201992 221997 80+ 36780 31699 41228 51236 59019 61929 85+ 14299 17385 14588 21175 26743 30762 Tabela 42: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 42: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding medium Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 52536 51057 54577 56889 55856 51775 5-9 63373 52671 51326 54848 57165 56139 10-14 71138 63370 52720 51382 54904 57222 15-19 76021 71183 63525 52911 51585 55103 20-24 71078 76398 71895 64314 53775 52469 25-29 72610 71688 77507 73076 65569 55103 30-34 75263 72450 71791 77617 73251 65809 35-39 78915 74551 71858 71272 77102 72800 40-44 80083 77762 73573 71007 70512 76322 45-49 60943 78265 76149 72203 69799 69399 50-54 56250 58762 75622 73801 70188 67964 55-59 52241 52844 55584 71776 70349 67119 60-64 48151 47478 48414 51401 66695 65633 65-69 35972 41908 41796 43101 46292 60313 70-74 22888 29317 34620 35127 36740 39928 75-79 10139 16715 21954 26465 27449 29073 80-84 10243 6127 10444 14219 17528 18528 85-89 4036 4676 2929 5207 7372 9214 90+ 1108 1599 2024 1660 2448 3605 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 942988 948821 958308 968276 974579 973518 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 187047 167098 158623 163119 167925 165136 0-19 263068 238281 222148 216030 219510 220239 15-49 514913 522297 506298 482400 461593 447005 15-59 623404 633903 637504 627977 602130 582088 15-64 671555 681381 685918 679378 668825 647721 60+ 132537 147820 162181 177180 204524 226294 65+ 84386 100342 113767 125779 137829 160661 80+ 15387 12402 15397 21086 27348 31347 85+ 5144 6275 4953 6867 9820 12819 Tabela 43: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 43: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding high Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 104175 107206 119343 128007 128217 121696 5-9 123606 104891 108440 120576 129251 129473 10-14 139093 123773 105228 108781 120919 129593 15-19 148133 140273 125426 106928 110492 122620 20-24 139960 152055 145886 131143 112738 116316 25-29 146802 143326 157260 151188 136542 118219 30-34 151305 147115 144325 158278 152294 137732 35-39 155651 150449 146491 143814 157789 151883 40-44 155415 154234 149334 145567 143032 156983 45-49 120905 153218 152397 147843 144315 141919 50-54 114062 118235 150131 149752 145658 142377 55-59 108265 109887 114573 145819 146000 142389 60-64 106767 102280 104593 109810 140157 140816 65-69 89639 97780 94601 97646 103387 132280 70-74 67195 78260 86379 84733 88478 94481 75-79 30386 54090 64199 72140 72028 76008 80-84 32918 20936 38754 47279 54267 55020 85-89 14798 17659 11935 23217 29220 34059 90+ 4871 7237 9783 8983 14436 19937 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1953946 1982904 2029078 2081504 2129220 2163801 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 366874 335870 333011 357364 378387 380762 0-19 515007 476143 458437 464292 488879 503382 15-49 1018171 1040670 1021119 984761 957202 945672 15-59 1240498 1268792 1285823 1280332 1248860 1230438 15-64 1347265 1371072 1390416 1390142 1389017 1371254 60+ 346574 378242 410244 443808 501973 552601 65+ 239807 275962 305651 333998 361816 411785 80+ 52587 45832 60472 79479 97923 109016 85+ 19669 24896 21718 32200 43656 53996 Tabela 44: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 44: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding high Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 50698 52136 58035 62241 62337 59166 5-9 60197 51071 52768 58666 62877 62979 10-14 67940 60298 51254 52952 58852 63062 15-19 71975 68813 61453 52423 54124 60020 20-24 68564 74593 72503 65168 56160 57865 25-29 74091 70143 77006 74937 67623 58634 30-34 76020 74169 70431 77298 75248 67955 35-39 76706 75800 74014 70315 77190 75157 40-44 75287 76350 75530 73798 70155 77023 45-49 59905 74752 75910 75173 73508 69927 50-54 57737 59221 73982 75243 74618 73025 55-59 55912 56686 58341 72961 74346 73826 60-64 58481 54325 55324 57172 71585 73064 65-69 53567 55390 51864 53133 55219 69230 70-74 44233 48535 50780 48082 49672 51965 75-79 20200 37043 41387 44080 42398 44179 80-84 22596 14607 27653 31737 34586 33782 85-89 10711 12726 8698 17203 20382 22647 90+ 3743 5496 7387 6829 11069 14726 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1008563 1022154 1044320 1069411 1091949 1108232 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 178835 163505 162057 173859 184066 185207 0-19 250810 232318 223510 226282 238190 245227 15-49 502548 514620 506847 489112 474008 466581 15-59 616197 630527 639170 637316 622972 613432 15-64 674678 684852 694494 694488 694557 686496 60+ 213531 228122 243093 258236 284911 309593 65+ 155050 173797 187769 201064 213326 236529 80+ 37050 32829 43738 55769 66037 71155 85+ 14454 18222 16085 24032 31451 37373 Tabela 45: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 45: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Visoka varianta De jure, excluding high Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 53477 55070 61308 65766 65880 62530 5-9 63409 53820 55672 61910 66374 66494 10-14 71153 63475 53974 55829 62067 66531 15-19 76158 71460 63973 54505 56368 62600 20-24 71396 77462 73383 65975 56578 58451 25-29 72711 73183 80254 76251 68919 59585 30-34 75285 72946 73894 80980 77046 69777 35-39 78945 74649 72477 73499 80599 76726 4044 80128 77884 73804 71769 72877 79960 4549 61000 78466 76487 72670 70807 71992 5054 56325 59014 76149 74509 71040 69352 55-59 52353 53201 56232 72858 71654 68563 60-64 48286 47955 49269 52638 68572 67752 65-69 36072 42390 42737 44513 48168 63050 70-74 22962 29725 35599 36651 38806 42516 75-79 10186 17047 22812 28060 29630 31829 80-84 10322 6329 11101 15542 19681 21238 85-89 4087 4933 3237 6014 8838 11412 90+ 1128 1741 2396 2154 3367 5211 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 945383 960750 984758 1012093 1037271 1055569 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 188039 172365 170954 183505 194321 195555 0-19 264197 243825 234927 238010 250689 258155 15-49 515623 526050 514272 495649 483194 479091 15-59 624301 638265 646653 643016 625888 617006 15-64 672587 686220 695922 695654 694460 684758 60+ 133043 150120 167151 185572 217062 243008 65+ 84757 102165 117882 132934 148490 175256 80+ 15537 13003 16734 23710 31886 37861 85+ 5215 6674 5633 8168 12205 16623 Tabela 46: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 46: Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 04 103885 102033 108994 113607 111739 104062 5-9 123533 104184 102599 109563 114182 112325 10-14 139064 123562 104312 102737 109699 114321 15-19 147859 139497 124253 105050 103488 110448 2024 139329 149431 141945 126804 107693 106159 25-29 146603 140629 151650 144255 129208 110188 3034 151266 146396 140804 151834 144522 129563 35-39 155599 150306 145601 140122 151162 143933 4044 155338 154037 148980 144449 139121 150134 45-49 120803 152890 151856 147113 142809 137645 5054 113931 117807 149290 148635 144324 140269 55-59 108071 109291 113518 144135 143975 140145 6064 106532 101481 103196 107832 137269 137549 65-69 89465 96963 93025 95327 100372 128036 7074 67050 77499 84643 82115 84995 90217 75-79 30288 53353 62458 69137 68087 71129 8084 32724 20441 37084 44280 49804 49695 85-89 14649 16927 11051 20817 25420 28900 90+ 4794 6733 8490 7225 11143 14681 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 1950783 1963460 1983749 2005037 2019012 2019399 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 014 366482 329779 315905 325907 335620 330708 019 514341 469276 440158 430957 439108 441156 15-49 1016797 1033186 1005089 959627 918003 888070 15-59 1238799 1260284 1267897 1252397 1206302 1168484 15-64 1345331 1361765 1371093 1360229 1343571 1306033 60+ 345502 373397 399947 426733 477090 520207 65+ 238970 271916 296751 318901 339821 382658 80+ 52167 44101 56625 72322 86367 93276 85+ 19443 23660 19541 28042 36563 43581 7i i Tabela 47: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 47: Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 50556 49620 53003 55243 54333 50598 5-9 60160 50722 49919 53303 55545 54638 10-14 67926 60192 50802 50001 53385 55629 15-19 71838 68314 60728 51350 50553 53938 20-24 68251 73033 70050 62490 53134 52344 25-29 73993 68941 74143 71179 63639 54304 30-34 76003 73946 69013 74217 71271 63754 35-39 76684 75755 73743 68850 74060 71133 40-44 75255 76275 75407 73442 68609 73812 4549 59860 74625 75707 74910 73010 68246 50-54 57681 59045 73668 74834 74136 72305 55-59 55830 56447 57934 72359 73626 73026 60-64 58381 54003 54782 56431 70574 71916 65-69 53493 55055 51229 52226 54080 67723 70-74 44162 48182 50023 46988 48255 50289 75-79 20149 36638 40504 42672 40638 42056 80-84 22481 14314 26640 30061 32276 31167 85-89 10613 12251 8122 15610 18048 19686 90+ 3686 5134 6466 5565 8695 11076 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1007002 1012492 1021883 1031731 1037867 1037640 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 178642 160534 153724 158547 163263 160865 0-19 250480 228848 214452 209897 213816 214803 1549 501884 510889 498791 476438 454276 437531 15-59 615395 626381 630393 623631 602038 582862 15-64 673776 680384 685175 680062 672612 654778 60+ 212965 225577 237766 249553 272566 293913 65+ 154584 171574 182984 193122 201992 221997 80+ 36780 31699 41228 51236 59019 61929 85+ 14299 17385 14588 21175 26743 30762 Tabela 48: Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020 Table 48: Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 0-4 53329 52413 55991 58364 57406 53464 5-9 63373 53462 52680 56260 58637 57687 10-14 71138 63370 53510 52736 56314 58692 15-19 76021 71183 63525 53700 52935 56510 20-24 71078 76398 71895 64314 54559 53815 25-29 72610 71688 77507 73076 65569 55884 30-34 75263 72450 71791 77617 73251 65809 35-39 78915 74551 71858 71272 77102 72800 40-44 80083 77762 73573 71007 70512 76322 45-49 60943 78265 76149 72203 69799 69399 50-54 56250 58762 75622 73801 70188 67964 55-59 52241 52844 55584 71776 70349 67119 60-64 48151 47478 48414 51401 66695 65633 65-69 35972 41908 41796 43101 46292 60313 70-74 22888 29317 34620 35127 36740 39928 75-79 10139 16715 21954 26465 27449 29073 80-84 10243 6127 10444 14219 17528 18528 85-89 4036 4676 2929 5207 7372 9214 90+ 1108 1599 2024 1660 2448 3605 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 943781 950968 961866 973306 981145 981759 Velike starostne skupine Broad age groups 0-14 187840 169245 162181 167360 172357 169843 0-19 263861 240428 225706 221060 225292 226353 15-49 514913 522297 506298 483189 463727 450539 15-59 623404 633903 637504 628766 604264 585622 15-64 671555 681381 685918 680167 670959 651255 60+ 132537 147820 162181 177180 204524 226294 65+ 84386 100342 113767 125779 137829 160661 80+ 15387 12402 15397 21086 27348 31347 85+ 5144 6275 4953 6867 9820 12819 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 19809 20857 22186 22539 21472 19674 20177 20589 21993 22609 21814 20046 20721 20381 21789 22637 22128 20458 21276 20200 21551 22599 22384 20872 22221 20019 21289 22500 22576 21272 23248 19895 21018 22348 22704 21643 25118 20266 20741 22147 22763 21971 25518 20783 20496 21905 22754 22247 25086 21316 20281 21633 22683 22469 25973 22242 20073 21344 22556 22634 26424 23260 19931 21055 22386 22742 27131 25122 20291 20767 22174 22791 28226 25520 20804 20518 21928 22777 29291 25088 21335 20303 21654 22703 30198 25979 22269 20102 21374 22585 30455 26447 23306 19982 21105 22435 30322 27177 25197 20375 20852 22256 30079 28300 25638 20932 20648 22057 30459 29408 25274 21531 20503 21854 29812 30366 26243 22547 20390 21660 29200 30680 26798 23672 20361 21485 29352 30599 27609 25643 20841 21321 29120 30406 28810 26167 21484 21205 28345 30816 29971 25864 22142 21122 27503 30183 30952 26856 23182 21036 28320 29557 31251 27397 24290 20996 29004 29671 31129 28164 26214 21433 30207 29387 30867 29289 26666 22002 31576 28550 31187 30356 26273 22568 31668 27640 30455 31233 27162 23504 30766 28382 29730 31429 27601 24508 30813 29004 29757 31220 28278 26341 31112 30152 29401 30887 29326 26719 31420 31472 28509 31146 30331 26272 30784 31533 27562 30376 31162 27114 30873 30611 28271 29623 31327 27526 30802 30635 28863 29626 31095 28178 31825 30907 29983 29250 30742 29199 33100 31193 31270 28344 30983 30181 33144 30541 31312 27390 30200 30993 32780 30606 30377 28076 29436 31140 33375 30511 30378 28644 29420 30890 33044 31499 30623 29738 29028 30522 31745 32725 30879 30986 28109 30740 32541 32734 30206 31003 27145 29942 29694 32337 30235 30046 27798 29156 28235 32876 30103 30013 28330 29113 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 27414 32499 31035 30213 29380 28695 48 24952 31169 32186 30423 30569 27751 49 18328 31887 32136 29714 30543 26766 50 22591 29032 31684 29684 29551 27365 51 24953 27543 32139 29495 29463 27841 52 24966 26669 31691 30345 29597 28824 53 23409 24210 30318 31385 29740 29921 54 23632 17726 30921 31251 28977 29833 55 22922 21771 28065 30726 28866 28791 56 22225 23964 26536 31064 28599 28626 57 21907 23878 25596 30525 29338 28670 58 22375 22285 23155 29105 30233 28722 59 21700 22400 16883 29566 29999 27899 60 21702 21635 20645 26734 29395 27691 61 21496 20885 22640 25183 29603 27340 62 21818 20481 22455 24189 28980 27959 63 21165 20815 20850 21802 27532 28689 64 21991 20081 20856 15822 27847 28352 65 19523 19983 20042 19250 25066 27668 66 19181 19680 19239 21008 23498 27723 67 18089 19835 18734 20705 22440 26994 68 17073 19089 18902 19086 20113 25503 69 16287 19642 18082 18946 14488 25614 70 15162 17274 17839 18056 17486 22882 71 14945 16791 17393 17167 18923 21270 72 13662 15641 17322 16525 18456 20112 73 12634 14601 16451 16473 16812 17851 74 10989 13723 16672 15551 16490 12706 75 9088 12573 14442 15135 15511 15138 76 5611 12137 13798 14519 14520 16152 77 4782 10866 12593 14177 13713 15470 78 4720 9790 11515 13162 13378 13790 79 6221 8255 10534 12978 12314 13201 80 7996 6597 9367 10919 11660 12081 81 7378 3928 8714 10100 10840 10964 82 6830 3205 7516 8888 10212 9990 83 5529 3018 6478 7827 9105 9370 84 5119 3783 5195 6842 8578 8256 85 4351 4600 3936 5794 6882 7464 86 3518 4005 2215 5096 6048 6597 87 2774 3477 1697 4151 5031 5877 88 2340 2635 1497 3361 4191 4941 89 1719 2275 1754 2519 3437 4361 90 1330 1792 1981 1774 2718 3266 91 + 3480 4966 6543 5479 8478 11503 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 2001769 2011513 2028435 2045525 2054374 2048831 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 g 10 n 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 9630 10139 10785 10956 10437 9563 9813 10012 10694 10993 10606 9746 10078 9912 10596 11008 10760 9948 10340 9825 10482 10991 10886 10150 10871 9738 10356 10944 10980 10346 11261 9678 10225 10871 11043 10527 12195 9861 10091 10774 11073 10687 12515 10112 9972 10657 11069 10822 12274 10363 9868 10525 11035 10930 12621 10884 9767 10385 10974 11011 12970 11270 9698 10245 10892 11064 13307 12200 9876 10106 10790 11089 13717 12519 10125 9986 10671 11083 14202 12279 10376 9882 10539 11048 14844 12630 10902 9786 10405 10993 14674 12992 11303 9733 10280 10926 14548 13348 12257 9935 10166 10848 14594 13783 12609 10218 10079 10764 14925 14307 12423 10523 10030 10687 14703 14997 12841 11117 10004 10622 14161 14876 13271 11586 10019 10567 14323 14787 13684 12597 10280 10512 14283 14852 14158 12988 10603 10466 13859 15180 14690 12812 10917 10426 13811 14940 15358 13209 11490 10379 14111 14369 15198 13598 11918 10355 14410 14495 15059 13961 12877 10565 15429 14421 15073 14383 13218 10837 15783 13962 15351 14864 12991 11100 16083 13877 15060 15481 13338 11622 15513 14142 14442 15271 13677 12000 15423 14415 14528 15094 14000 12920 15412 15411 14424 15078 14392 13230 15686 15752 13946 15334 14852 12985 15457 16043 13850 15034 15456 13320 15228 15471 14111 14413 15244 13656 15151 15376 14379 14496 15064 13975 15892 15360 15367 14388 15044 14362 16145 15628 15701 13907 15296 14817 16123 15393 15985 13807 14991 15415 16073 15158 15409 14061 14368 15199 16188 15073 15307 14321 14444 15013 15975 15801 15284 15299 14330 14988 15542 16044 15541 15623 13846 15232 15815 16013 15300 15898 13741 14923 14451 15953 15058 15317 13987 14296 13837 16055 14964 15207 14237 14364 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 13355 15829 15672 15172 15197 14242 48 12409 15383 15897 15413 15506 13750 49 8987 15634 15848 15158 15763 13633 50 11141 14265 15768 14901 15172 13863 51 12605 13640 15848 14790 15046 14096 52 12545 13144 15603 15470 14993 15029 53 11602 12194 15141 15670 15214 15317 54 11799 8819 15364 15600 14942 15553 55 11618 10912 13998 15499 14670 14951 56 11398 12322 13362 15554 14540 14807 57 11170 12241 12855 15290 15186 14736 58 11506 11298 11904 14813 15360 14930 59 11227 11465 8595 15003 15266 14641 60 11557 11262 10609 13643 15139 14350 61 11700 11020 11950 12995 15162 14196 62 11973 10767 11838 12470 14870 14794 63 11708 11051 10892 11516 14369 14926 64 12096 10741 11013 8290 14510 14792 65 10997 11005 10773 10191 13149 14622 66 11099 11085 10493 11429 12477 14591 67 10674 11279 10198 11269 11922 14252 68 10689 10958 10406 10314 10956 13708 69 10377 11236 10045 10363 7845 13768 70 9911 10128 10210 10065 9579 12401 71 9677 10118 10189 9721 10658 11681 72 9087 9617 10256 9356 10415 11068 73 8424 9504 9843 9441 9437 10076 74 7261 9093 9959 9004 9378 7143 75 6004 8545 8844 9028 8995 8616 76 3762 8191 8686 8870 8563 9457 77 3173 7533 8096 8768 8105 9095 78 3128 6818 7822 8242 8020 8088 79 4171 5715 7290 8136 7473 7860 80 5408 4577 6648 7023 7296 7347 81 5060 2767 6159 6679 6952 6791 82 4686 2241 5452 6005 6640 6217 83 3823 2112 4726 5569 6001 5922 84 3591 2679 3776 4958 5671 5289 85 3053 3286 2869 4299 4664 4925 86 2525 2897 1637 3769 4206 4456 87 2047 2516 1246 3143 3569 4022 88 1749 1918 1100 2557 3113 3423 89 1282 1680 1304 1913 2600 3037 90 1010 1331 1492 1358 2110 2340 91 + 2689 3823 4999 4229 6623 8796 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1029999 1034335 1042419 1050608 1054661 1051975 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10179 10718 11401 11583 11035 10111 10364 10577 11299 11616 11208 10300 10643 10469 11193 11629 11368 10510 10936 10375 11069 11608 11498 10722 11350 10281 10933 11556 11596 10926 11987 10217 10793 11477 11661 11116 12923 10405 10650 11373 11690 11284 13003 10671 10524 11248 11685 11425 12812 10953 10413 11108 11648 11539 13352 11358 10306 10959 11582 11623 13454 11990 10233 10810 11494 11678 13824 12922 10415 10661 11384 11702 14509 13001 10679 10532 11257 11694 15089 12809 10959 10421 11115 11655 15354 13349 11367 10316 10969 11592 15781 13455 12003 10249 10825 11509 15774 13829 12940 10440 10686 11408 15485 14517 13029 10714 10569 11293 15534 15101 12851 11008 10473 11167 15109 15369 13402 11430 10386 11038 15039 15804 13527 12086 10342 10918 15029 15812 13925 13046 10561 10809 14837 15554 14652 13179 10881 10739 14486 15636 15281 13052 11225 10696 13692 15243 15594 13647 11692 10657 14209 15188 16053 13799 12372 10641 14594 15176 16070 14203 13337 10868 14778 14966 15794 14906 13448 11165 15793 14588 15836 15492 13282 11468 15585 13763 15395 15752 13824 11882 15253 14240 15288 16158 13924 12508 15390 14589 15229 16126 14278 13421 15700 14741 14977 15809 14934 13489 15734 15720 14563 15812 15479 13287 15327 15490 13712 15342 15706 13794 15645 15140 14160 15210 16083 13870 15651 15259 14484 15130 16031 14203 15933 15547 14616 14862 15698 14837 16955 15565 15569 14437 15687 15364 17021 15148 15327 13583 15209 15578 16707 15448 14968 14015 15068 15941 17187 15438 15071 14323 14976 15877 17069 15698 15339 14439 14698 15534 16203 16681 15338 15363 14263 15508 16726 16721 14906 15105 13404 15019 15243 16384 15177 14729 13811 14860 14398 16821 15139 14806 14093 14749 7li 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 14059 16670 15363 15041 14183 14453 48 12543 15786 16289 15010 15063 14001 49 9341 16253 16288 14556 14780 13133 50 11450 14767 15916 14783 14379 13502 51 12348 13903 16291 14705 14417 13745 52 12421 13525 16088 14875 14604 13795 53 11807 12016 15177 15715 14526 14604 54 11833 8907 15557 15651 14035 14280 55 11304 10859 14067 15227 14196 13840 56 10827 11642 13174 15510 14059 13819 57 10737 11637 12741 15235 14152 13934 58 10869 10987 11251 14292 14873 13792 59 10473 10935 8288 14563 14733 13258 60 10145 10373 10036 13091 14256 13341 61 9796 9865 10690 12188 14441 13144 62 9845 9714 10617 11719 14110 13165 63 9457 9764 9958 10286 13163 13763 64 9895 9340 9843 7532 13337 13560 65 8526 8978 9269 9059 11917 13046 66 8082 8595 8746 9579 11021 13132 67 7415 8556 8536 9436 10518 12742 68 6384 8131 8496 8772 9157 11795 69 5910 8406 8037 8583 6643 11846 70 5251 7146 7629 7991 7907 10481 71 5268 6673 7204 7446 8265 9589 72 4575 6024 7066 7169 8041 9044 73 4210 5097 6608 7032 7375 7775 74 3728 4630 6713 6547 7112 5563 75 3084 4028 5598 6107 6516 6522 76 1849 3946 5112 5649 5957 6695 77 1609 3333 4497 5409 5608 6375 78 1592 2972 3693 4920 5358 5702 79 2050 2540 3244 4842 4841 5341 80 2588 2020 2719 3896 4364 4734 81 2318 1161 2555 3421 3888 4173 82 2144 964 2064 2883 3572 3773 83 1706 906 1752 2258 3104 3448 84 1528 1104 1419 1884 2907 2967 85 1298 1314 1067 1495 2218 2539 86 993 1108 578 1327 1842 2141 87 727 961 451 1008 1462 1855 88 591 717 397 804 1078 1518 89 437 595 450 606 837 1324 90 320 461 489 416 608 926 91 + 791 1143 1544 1250 1855 2707 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 971770 977178 986016 994917 999713 996856 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Srednja varianta De jure, excluding ..., medium Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 19296 20320 21697 22153 21167 19349 19662 20053 21491 22200 21500 19733 20201 19848 21274 22207 21801 20152 21168 19673 21026 22148 22041 20571 22016 19499 20756 22029 22213 20972 23008 19384 20483 21860 22319 21338 24865 19752 20207 21645 22356 21658 25235 20263 19963 21389 22324 21920 24781 21207 19755 21108 22231 22126 25644 22038 19553 20813 22087 22272 26086 23021 19421 20520 21899 22358 26733 24869 19776 20233 21671 22383 27790 25237 20285 19986 21412 22347 28798 24784 21226 19777 21130 22253 29657 25651 22065 19584 20842 22116 29896 26110 23066 19471 20571 21948 29732 26780 24945 19861 20318 21755 29423 27865 25356 20414 20118 21543 29772 28915 24970 21423 19978 21330 29036 29827 25916 22344 19873 21130 28397 30123 26461 23433 19852 20952 28460 30012 27213 25393 20330 20789 28276 29753 28375 25886 20967 20676 27487 30132 29481 25562 22034 20599 26709 29411 30415 26530 22979 20520 27482 28756 30697 27062 24052 20488 28143 28783 30545 27770 25964 20923 29383 28546 30217 28857 26385 21488 30713 27694 30505 29868 25971 22461 30882 26850 29686 30698 26836 23302 30005 27550 28933 30877 27267 24271 30036 28147 28873 30638 27885 26091 30386 29333 28565 30239 28895 26440 30730 30614 27657 30469 29845 25971 30109 30752 26776 29611 30630 26790 30208 29854 27443 28830 30779 27193 30048 29866 28013 28748 30518 27789 31036 30190 29174 28422 30103 28776 32193 30515 30425 27505 30315 29704 32114 29881 30546 26617 29447 30471 31579 29957 29637 27264 28658 30604 31875 29775 29626 27812 28559 30327 31420 30730 29925 28948 28219 29899 29830 31843 30222 30164 27290 30092 30634 31732 29570 30261 26395 29212 27866 31171 29614 29336 27014 28407 26476 31423 29401 29295 27532 28285 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 25658 30927 30305 29552 28628 27920 48 23775 29318 31349 29807 29788 26973 49 17028 30051 31187 29123 29847 26060 50 21140 27284 30578 29113 28889 26630 51 23684 25870 30755 28848 28800 27096 52 23894 25009 30201 29676 28994 28131 53 22434 23120 28563 30617 29187 29206 54 22779 16524 29193 30381 28454 29206 55 22171 20435 26434 29709 28370 28206 56 21516 22813 24992 29786 28035 28045 57 21289 22926 24075 29155 28760 28154 58 21869 21438 22191 27490 29567 28262 59 21226 21679 15826 27995 29243 27478 60 21287 21018 19475 25270 28506 27304 61 21132 20313 21650 23815 28470 26893 62 21455 19998 21656 22848 27767 27499 63 20896 20433 20149 20986 26085 28141 64 21762 19719 20266 14913 26441 27712 65 19345 19665 19541 18230 23759 26890 66 19049 19399 18767 20150 22279 26708 67 17949 19549 18338 20018 21245 25900 68 16946 18883 18593 18484 19399 24190 69 16176 19467 17786 18445 13690 24348 70 15062 17139 17580 17633 16590 21713 71 14881 16693 17164 16769 18176 20193 72 13600 15533 17086 16192 17864 19060 73 12571 14500 16284 16217 16299 17232 74 10936 13634 16529 15304 16066 12019 75 9058 12492 14332 14920 15157 14375 76 5590 12086 13716 14331 14191 15525 77 4765 10818 12507 13988 13441 14982 78 4694 9742 11437 13030 13176 13378 79 6181 8215 10466 12868 12122 12869 80 7962 6576 9307 10838 11497 11814 81 7353 3912 8678 10041 10703 10720 82 6803 3194 7483 8828 10078 9797 83 5502 3001 6446 7774 9019 9234 84 5104 3758 5170 6799 8507 8130 85 4337 4581 3923 5757 6831 7361 86 3507 3991 2206 5075 6012 6515 87 2763 3463 1691 4133 4999 5802 88 2328 2623 1489 3345 4162 4895 89 1714 2269 1742 2507 3416 4327 90 1328 1785 1972 1769 2701 3243 91 + 3466 4948 6518 5456 8442 11438 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 1949241 1959280 1976822 1995245 2006224 2003348 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 9381 9878 10547 10768 10289 9405 9563 9751 10450 10794 10453 9594 9825 9653 10346 10799 10601 9799 10287 9569 10227 10772 10719 10004 10751 9485 10097 10715 10804 10200 11132 9430 9965 10634 10856 10379 12075 9611 9831 10530 10875 10535 12379 9859 9713 10406 10860 10663 12116 10309 9612 10270 10815 10763 12458 10764 9514 10127 10746 10835 12813 11141 9450 9985 10655 10877 13113 12080 9625 9846 10545 10890 13483 12383 9873 9727 10420 10874 13946 12121 10322 9626 10284 10829 14571 12467 10783 9534 10146 10765 14413 12836 11174 9484 10020 10689 14251 13154 12137 9685 9906 10604 14269 13549 12473 9966 9821 10514 14593 14051 12265 10469 9774 10432 14312 14724 12679 10998 9752 10364 13774 14615 13114 11457 9771 10307 13839 14491 13491 12478 10031 10253 13809 14528 13924 12853 10351 10208 13411 14849 14435 12655 10863 10171 13418 14550 15086 13047 11371 10128 13729 13982 14938 13442 11789 10107 14023 14013 14764 13768 12758 10316 15079 13947 14750 14150 13082 10586 15411 13514 15020 14610 12834 11047 15751 13485 14671 15209 13176 11503 15209 13762 14056 15012 13521 11872 15117 14028 14047 14799 13807 12801 15106 15063 13952 14755 14159 13095 15398 15381 13499 15005 14598 12828 15173 15712 13459 14646 15186 13158 14986 15167 13732 14028 14986 13500 14837 15072 13994 14017 14771 13784 15536 15057 15022 13919 14725 14133 15715 15344 15335 13465 14970 14567 15610 15115 15660 13421 14608 15149 15412 14922 15112 13688 13989 14946 15343 14766 15009 13944 13972 14726 15113 15453 14988 14961 13870 14675 14506 15623 15266 15266 13413 14915 14881 15511 15032 15583 13365 14550 13624 15307 14833 15032 13626 13930 13128 15230 14671 14923 13874 13907 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 12640 14988 15340 14891 14875 13797 48 11969 14373 15495 15155 15167 13335 49 8499 14727 15368 14909 15468 13277 50 10607 13468 15148 14697 14907 13523 51 12137 12961 15053 14520 14785 13756 52 12159 12464 14796 15164 14738 14733 53 11268 11786 14171 15298 14983 15006 54 11510 8366 14500 15155 14723 15287 55 11372 10418 13245 14919 14498 14719 56 11140 11896 12729 14806 14306 14581 57 10941 11898 12223 14533 14920 14519 58 11339 11010 11543 13901 15032 14740 59 11038 11225 8194 14200 14870 14467 60 11388 11067 10173 12953 14617 14225 61 11552 10815 11581 12425 14478 14013 62 11827 10591 11551 11903 14181 14581 63 11612 10933 10657 11209 13527 14650 64 12002 10597 10820 7941 13771 14447 65 10921 10875 10618 9804 12516 14149 66 11022 10970 10323 11103 11955 13959 67 10610 11162 10053 11017 11401 13612 68 10620 10885 10311 10107 10680 12922 69 10320 11163 9924 10195 7528 13081 70 9854 10069 10100 9931 9225 11814 71 9641 10057 10091 9572 10362 11202 72 9054 9565 10155 9228 10188 10590 73 8388 9446 9781 9359 9252 9826 74 7225 9045 9896 8898 9228 6857 75 5985 8496 8793 8932 8876 8300 76 3749 8161 8633 8785 8433 9195 77 3161 7506 8052 8682 7994 8897 78 3112 6789 7775 8189 7950 7930 79 4142 5686 7251 8084 7385 7734 80 5385 4563 6610 6983 7218 7250 81 5040 2757 6136 6639 6885 6687 82 4670 2233 5432 5972 6574 6132 83 3806 2101 4705 5535 5964 5871 84 3580 2660 3757 4932 5635 5227 85 3040 3273 2860 4274 4637 4872 86 2516 2886 1631 3755 4181 4413 87 2039 2507 1242 3131 3550 3982 88 1740 1910 1094 2546 3094 3401 89 1278 1675 1295 1904 2586 3018 90 1008 1325 1486 1354 2098 2326 91 + 2678 3809 4980 4211 6597 8750 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1006253 1010459 1018514 1026969 1031645 1029830 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 9915 10442 11150 11385 10878 9944 10099 10302 11041 11406 11047 10139 10376 10195 10928 11408 11200 10353 10881 10104 10799 11376 11322 10567 11265 10014 10659 11314 11409 10772 11876 9954 10518 11226 11463 10959 12790 10141 10376 11115 11481 11123 12856 10404 10250 10983 11464 11257 12665 10898 10143 10838 11416 11363 13186 11274 10039 10686 11341 11437 13273 11880 9971 10535 11244 11481 13620 12789 10151 10387 11126 11493 14307 12854 10412 10259 10992 11473 14852 12663 10904 10151 10846 11424 15086 13184 11282 10050 10696 11351 15483 13274 11892 9987 10551 11259 15481 13626 12808 10176 10412 11151 15154 14316 12883 10448 10297 11029 15179 14864 12705 10954 10204 10898 14724 15103 13237 11346 10121 10766 14623 15508 13347 11976 10081 10645 14621 15521 13722 12915 10299 10536 14467 15225 14451 13033 10616 10468 14076 15283 15046 12907 11171 10428 13291 14861 15329 13483 11608 10392 13753 14774 15759 13620 12263 10381 14120 14770 15781 14002 13206 10607 14304 14599 15467 14707 13303 10902 15302 14180 15485 15258 13137 11414 15131 13365 15015 15489 13660 11799 14796 13788 14877 15865 13746 12399 14919 14119 14826 15839 14078 13290 15280 14270 14613 15484 14736 13345 15332 15233 14158 15464 15247 13143 14936 15040 13317 14965 15444 13632 15222 14687 13711 14802 15793 13693 15211 14794 14019 14731 15747 14005 15500 15133 14152 14503 15378 14643 16478 15171 15090 14040 15345 15137 16504 14766 14886 13196 14839 15322 16167 15035 14525 13576 14669 15658 16532 15009 14617 13868 14587 15601 16307 15277 14937 13987 14349 15224 15324 16220 14956 14898 13877 15177 15753 16221 14538 14678 13030 14662 14242 15864 14781 14304 13388 14477 13348 16193 14730 14372 13658 14378 \ 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 13018 15939 14965 14661 13753 14123 48 11806 14945 15854 14652 14621 13638 49 8529 15324 15819 14214 14379 12783 50 10533 13816 15430 14416 13982 13107 51 11547 12909 15702 14328 14015 13340 52 11735 12545 15405 14512 14256 13398 53 11166 11334 14392 15319 14204 14200 54 11269 8158 14693 15226 13731 13919 55 10799 10017 13189 14790 13872 13487 56 10376 10917 12263 14980 13729 13464 57 10348 11028 11852 14622 13840 13635 58 10530 10428 10648 13589 14535 13522 59 10188 10454 7632 13795 14373 13011 60 9899 9951 9302 12317 13889 13079 61 9580 9498 10069 11390 13992 12880 62 9628 9407 10105 10945 13586 12918 63 9284 9500 9492 9777 12558 13491 64 9760 9122 9446 6972 12670 13265 65 8424 8790 8923 8426 11243 12741 66 8027 8429 8444 9047 10324 12749 67 7339 8387 8285 9001 9844 12288 68 6326 7998 8282 8377 8719 11268 69 5856 8304 7862 8250 6162 11267 70 5208 7070 7480 7702 7365 9899 71 5240 6636 7073 7197 7814 8991 72 4546 5968 6931 6964 7676 8470 73 4183 5054 6503 6858 7047 7406 74 3711 4589 6633 6406 6838 5162 75 3073 3996 5539 5988 6281 6075 76 1841 3925 5083 5546 5758 6330 77 1604 3312 4455 5306 5447 6085 78 1582 2953 3662 4841 5226 5448 79 2039 2529 3215 4784 4737 5135 80 2577 2013 2697 3855 4279 4564 81 2313 1155 2542 3402 3818 4033 82 2133 961 2051 2856 3504 3665 83 1696 900 1741 2239 3055 3363 84 1524 1098 1413 1867 2872 2903 85 1297 1308 1063 1483 2194 2489 86 991 1105 575 1320 1831 2102 87 724 956 449 1002 1449 1820 88 588 713 395 799 1068 1494 89 436 594 447 603 830 1309 90 320 460 486 415 603 917 91 + 788 1139 1538 1245 1845 2688 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 942988 948821 958308 968276 974579 973518 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 19805 20868 22236 22745 21784 20032 20171 20587 22044 22784 22112 20396 20725 20375 21830 22779 22401 20809 21168 20194 21580 22686 22636 21215 22016 20009 21304 22613 22806 21610 23008 19892 21028 22398 22909 21954 24865 20260 20741 22198 22939 22269 25235 20787 20491 21946 22896 22519 24781 21207 20275 21661 22769 22720 25644 22038 20064 21360 22669 22863 26086 23021 19928 21066 22436 22947 26733 24869 20285 20767 22224 22966 27790 25237 20808 20513 21967 22919 28798 24784 21226 20297 21683 22791 29657 25651 22065 20094 21389 22698 29896 26110 23066 19978 21116 22485 29732 26780 24945 20369 20850 22307 29423 27865 25356 20936 20644 22097 29772 28915 24970 21423 20497 21883 29036 29827 25916 22344 20381 21676 28397 30123 26461 23433 20358 21496 28460 30012 27213 25393 20835 21320 28276 29753 28375 25886 21487 21200 27487 30132 29481 25562 22034 21116 26709 29411 30415 26530 22979 21027 27482 28756 30697 27062 24052 20992 28143 28783 30545 27770 25964 21427 29383 28546 30217 28857 26385 22006 30713 27694 30505 29868 25971 22461 30882 26850 29686 30698 26836 23302 30005 27550 28933 30877 27267 24271 30036 28147 28873 30638 27885 26091 30386 29333 28565 30239 28895 26440 30730 30614 27657 30469 29845 25971 30109 30752 26776 29611 30630 26790 30208 29854 27443 28830 30779 27193 30048 29866 28013 28748 30518 27789 31036 30190 29174 28422 30103 28776 32193 30515 30425 27505 30315 29704 32114 29881 30546 26617 29447 30471 31579 29957 29637 27264 28658 30604 31875 29775 29626 27812 28559 30327 31420 30730 29925 28948 28219 29899 29830 31843 30222 30164 27290 30092 30634 31732 29570 30261 26395 29212 27866 31171 29614 29336 27014 28407 26476 31423 29401 29295 27532 28285 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostimi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility Leto /Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 25658 30927 30305 29552 28628 27920 48 23775 29318 31349 29807 29788 26973 49 17028 30051 31187 29123 29847 26060 50 21140 27284 30578 29113 28889 26630 51 23684 25870 30755 28848 28800 27096 52 23894 25009 30201 29676 28994 28131 53 22434 23120 28563 30617 29187 29206 54 22779 16524 29193 30381 28454 29206 55 22171 20435 26434 29709 28370 28206 56 21516 22813 24992 29786 28035 28045 57 21289 22926 24075 29155 28760 28154 58 21869 21438 22191 27490 29567 28262 59 21226 21679 15826 27995 29243 27478 60 21287 21018 19475 25270 28506 27304 61 21132 20313 21650 23815 28470 26893 62 21455 19998 21656 22848 27767 27499 63 20896 20433 20149 20986 26085 28141 64 21762 19719 20266 14913 26441 27712 65 19345 19665 19541 18230 23759 26890 66 19049 19399 18767 20150 22279 26708 67 17949 19549 18338 20018 21245 25900 68 16946 18883 18593 18484 19399 24190 69 16176 19467 17786 18445 13690 24348 70 15062 17139 17580 17633 16590 21713 71 14881 16693 17164 16769 18176 20193 72 13600 15533 17086 16192 17864 19060 73 12571 14500 16284 16217 16299 17232 74 10936 13634 16529 15304 16066 12019 75 9058 12492 14332 14920 15157 14375 76 5590 12086 13716 14331 14191 15525 77 4765 10818 12507 13988 13441 14982 78 4694 9742 11437 13030 13176 13378 79 6181 8215 10466 12868 12122 12869 80 7962 6576 9307 10838 11497 11814 81 7353 3912 8678 10041 10703 10720 82 6803 3194 7483 8828 10078 9797 83 5502 3001 6446 7774 9019 9234 84 5104 3758 5170 6799 8507 8130 85 4337 4581 3923 5757 6831 7361 86 3507 3991 2206 5075 6012 6515 87 2763 3463 1691 4133 4999 5802 88 2328 2623 1489 3345 4162 4895 89 1714 2269 1742 2507 3416 4327 90 1328 1785 1972 1769 2701 3243 91 + 3466 4948 6518 5456 8442 11438 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 1950783 1963460 1983749 2005037 2019012 2019399 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 Srednja varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostimi rodnosti De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 9628 10145 10809 11056 10589 9737 9810 10011 10719 11078 10751 9916 10080 9909 10616 11077 10893 10118 10287 9822 10496 11033 11008 10317 10751 9733 10363 10999 11092 10510 11132 9677 10230 10895 11143 10678 12075 9858 10091 10799 11158 10832 12379 10114 9970 10677 11138 10954 12116 10309 9865 10539 11077 11052 12458 10764 9763 10393 11029 11122 12813 11141 9697 10251 10916 11164 13113 12080 9873 10106 10814 11174 13483 12383 10127 9983 10690 11152 13946 12121 10322 9879 10553 11091 14571 12467 10783 9782 10412 11048 14413 12836 11174 9731 10285 10950 14251 13154 12137 9932 10165 10873 14269 13549 12473 10220 10077 10784 14593 14051 12265 10469 10027 10701 14312 14724 12679 10998 9999 10630 13774 14615 13114 11457 10018 10572 13839 14491 13491 12478 10277 10511 13809 14528 13924 12853 10605 10463 13411 14849 14435 12655 10863 10423 13418 14550 15086 13047 11371 10375 13729 13982 14938 13442 11789 10353 14023 14013 14764 13768 12758 10562 15079 13947 14750 14150 13082 10839 15411 13514 15020 14610 12834 11047 15751 13485 14671 15209 13176 11503 15209 13762 14056 15012 13521 11872 15117 14028 14047 14799 13807 12801 15106 15063 13952 14755 14159 13095 15398 15381 13499 15005 14598 12828 15173 15712 13459 14646 15186 13158 14986 15167 13732 14028 14986 13500 14837 15072 13994 14017 14771 13784 15536 15057 15022 13919 14725 14133 15715 15344 15335 13465 14970 14567 15610 15115 15660 13421 14608 15149 15412 14922 15112 13688 13989 14946 15343 14766 15009 13944 13972 14726 15113 15453 14988 14961 13870 14675 14506 15623 15266 15266 13413 14915 14881 15511 15032 15583 13365 14550 13624 15307 14833 15032 13626 13930 13128 15230 14671 14923 13874 13907 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 12640 14988 15340 14891 14875 13797 48 11969 14373 15495 15155 15167 13335 49 8499 14727 15368 14909 15468 13277 50 10607 13468 15148 14697 14907 13523 51 12137 12961 15053 14520 14785 13756 52 12159 12464 14796 15164 14738 14733 53 11268 11786 14171 15298 14983 15006 54 11510 8366 14500 15155 14723 15287 55 11372 10418 13245 14919 14498 14719 56 11140 11896 12729 14806 14306 14581 57 10941 11898 12223 14533 14920 14519 58 11339 11010 11543 13901 15032 14740 59 11038 11225 8194 14200 14870 14467 60 11388 11067 10173 12953 14617 14225 61 11552 10815 11581 12425 14478 14013 62 11827 10591 11551 11903 14181 14581 63 11612 10933 10657 11209 13527 14650 64 12002 10597 10820 7941 13771 14447 65 10921 10875 10618 9804 12516 14149 66 11022 10970 10323 11103 11955 13959 67 10610 11162 10053 11017 11401 13612 68 10620 10885 10311 10107 10680 12922 69 10320 11163 9924 10195 7528 13081 70 9854 10069 10100 9931 9225 11814 71 9641 10057 10091 9572 10362 11202 72 9054 9565 10155 9228 10188 10590 73 8388 9446 9781 9359 9252 9826 74 7225 9045 9896 8898 9228 6857 75 5985 8496 8793 8932 8876 8300 76 3749 8161 8633 8785 8433 9195 77 3161 7506 8052 8682 7994 8897 78 3112 6789 7775 8189 7950 7930 79 4142 5686 7251 8084 7385 7734 80 5385 4563 6610 6983 7218 7250 81 5040 2757 6136 6639 6885 6687 82 4670 2233 5432 5972 6574 6132 83 3806 2101 4705 5535 5964 5871 84 3580 2660 3757 4932 5635 5227 85 3040 3273 2860 4274 4637 4872 86 2516 2886 1631 3755 4181 4413 87 2039 2507 1242 3131 3550 3982 88 1740 1910 1094 2546 3094 3401 89 1278 1675 1295 1904 2586 3018 90 1008 1325 1486 1354 2098 2326 91 + 2678 3809 4980 4211 6597 8750 SKUPAJ/TOTAL 1007002 1012492 1021883 1031731 1037867 1037640 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Leto / Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10177 10723 11427 11689 11195 10295 10361 10576 11325 11706 11361 10480 10645 10466 11214 11702 11508 10691 10881 10372 11084 11653 11628 10898 11265 10276 10941 11614 11714 11100 11876 10215 10798 11503 11766 11276 12790 10402 10650 11399 11781 11437 12856 10673 10521 11269 11758 11565 12665 10898 10410 11122 11692 11668 13186 11274 10301 10967 11640 11741 13273 11880 10231 10815 11520 11783 13620 12789 10412 10661 11410 11792 14307 12854 10681 10530 11277 11767 14852 12663 10904 10418 11130 11700 15086 13184 11282 10312 10977 11650 15483 13274 11892 10247 10831 11535 15481 13626 12808 10437 10685 11434 15154 14316 12883 10716 10567 11313 15179 14864 12705 10954 10470 11182 14724 15103 13237 11346 10382 11046 14623 15508 13347 11976 10340 10924 14621 15521 13722 12915 10558 10809 14467 15225 14451 13033 10882 10737 14076 15283 15046 12907 11171 10693 13291 14861 15329 13483 11608 10652 13753 14774 15759 13620 12263 10639 14120 14770 15781 14002 13206 10865 14304 14599 15467 14707 13303 11167 15302 14180 15485 15258 13137 11414 15131 13365 15015 15489 13660 11799 14796 13788 14877 15865 13746 12399 14919 14119 14826 15839 14078 13290 15280 14270 14613 15484 14736 13345 15332 15233 14158 15464 15247 13143 14936 15040 13317 14965 15444 13632 15222 14687 13711 14802 15793 13693 15211 14794 14019 14731 15747 14005 15500 15133 14152 14503 15378 14643 16478 15171 15090 14040 15345 15137 16504 14766 14886 13196 14839 15322 16167 15035 14525 13576 14669 15658 16532 15009 14617 13868 14587 15601 16307 15277 14937 13987 14349 15224 15324 16220 14956 14898 13877 15177 15753 16221 14538 14678 13030 14662 14242 15864 14781 14304 13388 14477 13348 16193 14730 14372 13658 14378 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Starost Age 47 13018 15939 14965 14661 13753 14123 48 11806 14945 15854 14652 14621 13638 49 8529 15324 15819 14214 14379 12783 50 10533 13816 15430 14416 13982 13107 51 11547 12909 15702 14328 14015 13340 52 11735 12545 15405 14512 14256 13398 53 11166 11334 14392 15319 14204 14200 54 11269 8158 14693 15226 13731 13919 55 10799 10017 13189 14790 13872 13487 56 10376 10917 12263 14980 13729 13464 57 10348 11028 11852 14622 13840 13635 58 10530 10428 10648 13589 14535 13522 59 10188 10454 7632 13795 14373 13011 '60 9899 9951 9302 12317 13889 13079 61 9580 9498 10069 11390 13992 12880 62 9628 9407 10105 10945 13586 12918 63 9284 9500 9492 9777 12558 13491 64 9760 9122 9446 6972 12670 13265 65 8424 8790 8923 8426 11243 12741 66 8027 8429 8444 9047 10324 12749 67 7339 8387 8285 9001 9844 12288 68 6326 7998 8282 8377 8719 11268 69 5856 8304 7862 8250 6162 11267 70 5208 7070 7480 7702 7365 9899 71 5240 6636 7073 7197 7814 8991 72 4546 5968 6931 6964 7676 8470 73 4183 5054 6503 6858 7047 7406 74 3711 4589 6633 6406 6838 5162 75 3073 3996 5539 5988 6281 6075 76 1841 3925 5083 5546 5758 6330 77 1604 3312 4455 5306 5447 6085 78 1582 2953 3662 4841 5226 5448 79 2039 2529 3215 4784 4737 5135 80 2577 2013 2697 3855 4279 4564 81 2313 1155 2542 3402 3818 4033 82 2133 961 2051 2856 3504 3665 83 1696 900 1741 2239 3055 3363 84 1524 1098 1413 1867 2872 2903 85 1297 1308 1063 1483 2194 2489 86 991 1105 575 1320 1831 2102 87 724 956 449 1002 1449 1820 88 588 713 395 799 1068 1494 89 436 594 447 603 830 1309 90 320 460 486 415 603 917 91 + 788 1139 1538 1245 1845 2688 SKUPAJ / TOTAL 943781 950968 961866 973306 981145 981759 SEZNAM TABEL LIST OF TABLES stran / page Tabela 1: Nekaj kazalnikov rodnosti za Republiko Slovenijo in sosednje države, 1992 Table 1: Some fertility indicators for the Republic of Slovenia and neighbouring countries, 1992 ............................15 Tabela 2: Umrljivost dojenčkov in pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu v Republiki Sloveniji in sosednjih državah po letu 1989 Table 2: Infant mortality and life expectancy at birth in the Republic of Slovenia and neighbourng countries after 1989 .................................................................................15 Tabela 3: Pregled hipotez za različne variante projekcij stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije in stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev, 1995-2020 Table 3: Review of assumptions for seven different variants of projections of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1995-2020........................................................................21 Tabela 4: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) Table 4: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Absolute numbers)...............................47 Tabela 5: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) Table 5: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase/decrease, 1992=100)...........................................................................48 Tabela 6: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) Table 6: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups).........................................................................................49 Tabela 7: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) Table 7: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies)............................................................................50 Tabela 8: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) Table 8: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Absolute numbers).................................................................................................51 Tabela 9: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) Table 9: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase I decrease, 1992=100)..............................................................52 Tabela 10: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) Table 10: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups).........................................................................................53 Tabela 11: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) Table 11: De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies)........................................................................54 Tabela 12: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) Table 12: De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Absolute numbers).................................................................................................55 Tabela 13: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) Table 13: De jure mate population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase/decrease, 1992=100)................................................................56 stran / page Tabela 14: Table 14: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups) 57 Tabela 15: Table 15: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies) 58 Tabela 16: Table 16: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Absolute numbers) 59 Tabela 17: Table 17: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase/decrease, 1992=100) 60 Tabela 18: Table 18: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups) 61 Tabela 19: Table 19: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies) 62 Tabela 20: Table 20: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Absolute numbers) 63 Tabela 21: Table 21: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase/decrease, 1992=100) 64 Tabela 22: Table 22: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups) 65 Tabela 23: Table 23: Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies) 66 Tabela 24: Table 24: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (absolutni podatki) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Absolute numbers) 67 stran / page Tabela 25: Table 25: Tabela 26: Table 26: Tabela 27: Table 27: Tabela 28: Table 28: Tabela 29: Table 29: Tabela 30: Table 30: Tabela 31: Table 31: Tabela 32: Table 32: Tabela 33: Table 33: Tabela 34: Table 34: Tabela 35: Table 35: Tabela 36: Table 36: Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (spremembe v naraščanju števila prebivalstva, 1992=100) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Indeces of population increase/decrease, 1992=100)..............................................68 Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (deleži po starostnih skupinah) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Percentage by age groups).......................................................................69 Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po velikih starostnih skupinah (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti in kazalniki staranja) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by broad age groups (Dependency ratios and ageing indicies)..........................................................70 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five- years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low.......................................................................................71 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low............................................................................72 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low............................................................................73 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................74 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................75 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................76 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high......................................................................................77 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high...........................................................................78 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high..........................................................................79 ■rtWv/ 71 \ stran / page Tabela 37: Table 37: Tabela 38: Table 38: Tabela 39: Table 39: Tabela 40: Table 40: Tabela 41: Table 41: Tabela 42: Table 42: Tabela 43: Table 43: Tabela 44: Table 44: Tabela 45: Table 45: Tabela 46: Table 46: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low...................... Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low............. Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, NIZKA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure low............. Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium................... Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure medium Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high..................... Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high............ Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, VISOKA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure high............ Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility.............................................................................. 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 stran / page Tabela 47: Table 47: Tabela 48: Table 48: Tabela 49: Table 49: Tabela 50: Table 50: Tabela 51: Table 51: Tabela 52: Table 52: Tabela 53: Table 53: Tabela 54: Table 54: Tabela 55: Table 55: Tabela 56: Table 56: Tabela 57: Table 57: Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility...................................................................................................................90 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in petletnih starostnih skupinah, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and five-years age groups, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility.....................................................................................................91 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................................92 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................................94 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium.........................................................................................96 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium.......................................................................98 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium..................................................................100 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure medium..................................................................102 Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility....................................104 Projekcija stalnih prebivalk Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrenostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding .... medium adjusted fertility....................................106 Projekcija stalnih prebivalcev Republike Slovenije, brez zdomcev, po spolu in letih starosti, 1995-2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrenostmi rodnosti Projection of de jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, by sex and age, 1995-2020, De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility....................................108 SEZNAM SLIK LIST OF FIGURES stran / page Slika 1: Različni načini opazovanja demografskih dogodkov Figure 1: Diferent manners of observing demographic events....................................................................12 Slika 2: Celotna rodnost in celotno potomstvo, Republika Slovenija, 1957-1992, generacije, 1930-1960 Figure 2: Total fertility and completed fertility, Republic of Slovenia, 1957-1992, generations, 1930-1960..............................................................................................17 Slika 3: Starostnospecifični koeficienti splošne rodnosti, Republika Slovenija, 1951-1991 Figure 3: Age-specific fertility rates, Republic of Slovenia, 1951-1991 ......................................................17 Slika 4: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu po spolu, Republika Slovenija, 1970-1991 Figure 4: Life expectancy at birth by sex, Republic of Slovenia, 1970-1991 ...................................................18 Slika 5: Pričakovano trajanje življenja v starosti 65 let, po spolu, Republika Slovenija, 1970-1991 Figure 5: Life expectancy at age 65, by sex, Republic of Slovenia, 1970-1991..................................................18 Slika 6: Starostnospecifični koeficienti splošne rodnosti, Republika Slovenija, generacije 1930-1965 Figure 6: Age-specific fertility rates, Republic of Slovenia, generatoions 1930-1965..........................................19 Slika 7: Celotna rodnost, Republika Slovenija, 1960-2020 Figure 7: Total fertility, Republic of Slovenia, 1960-2020....................................................................22 Slika 8: Poprečna starost žensk ob rojstvu otrok, Republika Slovenija, 1960-2020 Figure 8: Mean age of woman at birth of any child, Republic of Slovenia, 1960-2020............................................22 Slika 9: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu, Republika Slovenija, 1975-2020, ženske Figure 9: Life expectancy at birth, Republic of Slovenia, 1975-2020, females..................................................23 Slika 10: Pričakovano trajanje življenja ob rojstvu, Republika Slovenija, 1975-2020, moški Figure 10: Life expectancy at birth, Republic of Slovenia, 1975-2020, males......................................................23 Slika 11: Neto selitve, Republika Slovenija, 1982-2020, stalno prebivalstvo Figure 11: Net migration, Republic of Slovenia, 1982-2020, de jure population....................................................24 Slika 12: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu, 1.1. 1992 Figure 12: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1.1. 1992 .............................................28 Slika 13: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, NIZKA varianta Figure 13: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure low........................................................................................28 Slika 14: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, SREDNJA varianta Figure 14: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure medium.....................................................................................29 Slika 15: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, VISOKA varianta Figure 15: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020, De jure high.......................................................................................29 Slika 16: Projekcija stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020, SREDNJA varianta s prilagojenimi vrednostimi rodnosti s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti Figure 16: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020 - De jure, excluding ..., medium adjusted fertility.................................................30 Slika 17: Figure 17: Slika 18: Figure 18: Slika 19: Figure 19: Slika 20: Figure 20: Slika 21: Figure 21: Slika 22: Figure 22: Slika 23: Figure 23: Slika 24: Figure 24: Slika 25: Figure 25: Slika 26: Figure 26: Slika 27: Figure 27: stran / page Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers)........................................................................30 Stalne prebivalke Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) De jure female population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers)........................................................................31 Stalni prebivalci Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) De jure male population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers)..........................................................................31 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (indeks) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia for 1970-1990 and projections for 1995-2020 (index).....................................................................................32 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije brez zdomcev, 1971, 1981, 1992 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1971, 1981, 1992 and projections for 1995-2020 (absolute numbers)................................................32 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, z in brez brez zdomcev, v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020, nizka in visoka varinata (število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020, De jure low and De jure high (absolute numbers).................................................33 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije, z in brez brez zdomcev, v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020, nizka, visoka in srednja varainta s prilagojenimi vrednostmi rodnosti (število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, excluding persons who have worked abroad for more than 1 year and members of their families living with them, 1970-1990 and projections, De jure low, De jure high and De jure medium adjusted fertility, 1995-2020 (absolute numbers)......................................................................................33 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, absolute numbers)......................................................................34 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, indeks) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, index)................................................................................34 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 0-19 let, %) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 0-19, %)..................................................................................35 Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, število) De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, absolute numbers).....................................................................35 A /^y ZAVOD REPUBLIKE SLOVENIJE ZA STATISTIKO 77 STASTISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA stran / page Slika 28: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, indeks) Figure 28: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, index).................................................................................36 Slika 29: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-39 let, %) Figure 29: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-39, %).....................................................................................36 Slika 30: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, število) Figure 30: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, absolute numbers)......................................................................37 Slika 31: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, indeks) Figure 31: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, index).................................................................................37 Slika 32: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 40-59 let, %) Figure 32: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 40-59, %).....................................................................................38 Slika 33: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, število) Figure 33: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, absolute numbers)......................................................................38 Slika 34: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, indeks) Figure 34: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, index).................................................................................39 Slika 35: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60-79 let, %) Figure 35: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60-79, %).....................................................................................39 Slika 36: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, število) Figure 36: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, absolute numbers).......................................................................40 Slika 37: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, indeks) Figure 37: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, index)..................................................................................40 Slika 38: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 80 in več let, %) Figure 38: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 80+, %)......................................................................................41 Slika 39: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-59 let, število) Figure 39: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-59, absolute numbers)........................................................................41 stran / page Slika 40: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 20-59 let, %) Figure 40: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 20-59, %)..........................................................................................42 Slika 41: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60 in več let, število) Figure 41: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60+, absolute numbers)...........................................................................42 Slika 42: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (staro 60 in več let, %) Figure 42: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (aged 60+, %)............................................................................................43 Slika 43: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (0-19) + (60+)/(20-59)) Figure 43: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (0-19)+(60+)/(20-59))...............................................................43 Slika 44: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (0-19)/(20-59)) Figure 44: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (0-19)1(20-59))....................................................................44 Slika 45: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (40-59)/(20-59)) Figure 45: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (40-59)1(20-59))...................................................................44 Slika 46: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (60+)/(20-59)) Figure 46: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (60+)1(20-59)).....................................................................45 Slika 47: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije v obdobju 1970-1990 in projekcije za obdobje 1995-2020 (koeficienti starostne odvisnosti: (80+)/(60+)) Figure 47: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia 1970-1990 and projections 1995-2020 (Dependency ratios: (80+)/(60+)).......................................................................45 Slika 48: Stalno prebivalstvo Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu, 1.1. 1992 in projekcije stalnega prebivalstva Republike Slovenije po starosti in spolu leta 2020 (NIZKA in VISOKA varianta ter SREDNJA VARIANTA S PRILAGOJENIMI VREDNOSTMI RODNOSTI) Figure 48: De jure population of the Republic of Slovenia by sex and age, 1.1. 1992 and de jure population of the Republic of Slovenia, by sex and age, projection 2020 - De jure low and De jure high and De jure medium adjusted fertility.................................................................................................46 UPORABLJENA LITERATURA BACKGROUND PAPERS 1. Cruijsen, H. and Keilman N. (1988), General projection methods and outputs. Paper prepared for presentation at the International population projections in industralized countries, Voorburg, the Netherlands, 25-28 October 1988. 2. Eurostat (1991), Two long term population scenario fot the European Community. Scenarios prepared for the International conference "Human resources in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century", Luxembourg, 27-29 November 1991. 3. Eurostat (1992), Human resoures in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century, Conference proceedings of the International conference "Human resources in Europe at the dawn of the 21st century”, Luxembourg, 27-29 November 1991. 4. Šircelj M. in ostali: Projekcije prebivalstva SR Slovenije 1986-2006, Zavod SR Slovenije za statistiko, Ljubljana 1990. 5. United Nations (1980), Recommendations on statistics of international migration. Statistical papers, series M, no. 58, New York. 6. Willekens F.J. and Drewe P. (1984), A multiregional demographic model for regional demographic projection. Demographic research and spatial policy: the dutch experience, Academic Press, London, pp. 309-334.