12. MAJ 2004 12 MAY 2004 17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI MINING AND MANUFACTURING št./No 9 št./No 129 Statistične informacije, št. 129/2004 2 Rapid Reports No 129/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 129/2004 Rapid Reports No 129/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 129/2004 4 Rapid Reports No 129/2004 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE SURVEY Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah, katere del je tudi investicijska anketa, izvajamo od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. The Survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing, a part of which is also the Investment Survey, has been carried out since April 1995 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. Namen kvalitativne investicijske ankete je pridobiti informacije o obsegu in strukturi investicijskih vlaganj, vplivih različnih dejavnikov na investiranje in poslovnem stanju podjetij. The purpose of the qualitative Investment Survey (PA-INV) is to obtain information on the volume and type of fixed investment, factors influencing investment and assessment of the enterprises’ business situation. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Anketo izvajamo na vzorcu podjetij, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti (SKD) razvrščena v rudarstvo, predelovalne dejavnosti in oskrbo z elektriko, plinom in vodo (SKD 10-41), to je v industrijo. The survey is carried out twice a year on the sample of enterprises registered in mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply of the Standard Classification of Activity (SKD 10-41), i.e. in industry. Pri oblikovanju vzorca oziroma panela podjetij smo uporabili dve merili: In designing the sample, i.e. the panel of enterprises, two criteria were used: velikost podjetja (število zaposlenih skladno z Zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in razvrstitev podjetja po SKD-ju. the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) and the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na spomladanski vprašalnik PA-INV, ki vsebuje pet kratkih kvalitativnih vprašanj, odgovarjajo direktorji ali drugi vodilni delavci podjetij v marcu ali aprilu. Na jesenski vprašalnik, ki vsebuje enajst vprašanj, pa v oktobru ali novembru. Managers of enterprises or other executives are responding to the spring PA-INV questionnaire in March or April and to the autumn questionnaire in October or November. The spring questionnaire includes five short qualitative questions and the autumn one includes eleven. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panel smo vključili vsa velika podjetja, 58 % srednjih (ali 61 % zaposlenih) in 18 % malih podjetij (ali 20 % zaposlenih). The panel includes all large enterprises, 58% of medium-sized enterprises (or 61% of employees) and 18% of small enterprises (or 20% of employees). Panel pokriva 38 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 75 % zaposlenih v rudarstvu, predelovalnih dejavnostih in oskrbi z elektriko, plinom in vodo. The panel covers 38% of the enterprises of the studied population or 75% of employees in mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION Anketo izvajamo dvakrat letno po pošti, in sicer marca ali aprila in oktobra ali novembra. The survey is carried out twice a year by mail, i.e. in March or April and in October or November. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Answers to individual questions are weighted, so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprises in the panel. Inside SKD divisions responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES G Neodgovore obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giba med 8-15 % (povprečno 10 %), kar je manj od mednarodnih standardov za kvalitativne ankete. Non-responses are processed in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 8% and 15% (10% on average), which is better than international standards for qualitative surveys. DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo strukturo odgovorov in ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. The charts show the structure of answers and the balances by individual questions. Balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in o rudarstvu, predelovalnih dejavnostih in oskrbi z elektriko, plinom in vodo, to je o industriji, vendar le, če so na anketo odgovorili. Persons participating in the survey get the special information for SKD division in which they are classified and for mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply, i.e. industry, as a whole. However, they get it only if they responded to the survey. Statistične informacije, št. 129/2004 Rapid Reports No 129/2004 5 Drugim uporabnikom pa so dostopni podatki na ravni industrije in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Podatki so objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence – Investicije v industriji. Other users can get data for industry and its divisions and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises. Data are published in the Rapid Reports – Business Tendency – Investment in industry. Spomladanski vprašalnik: Spring questionnaire: − Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva v letošnjem letu v primerjavi s preteklim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? − Percentage change in investment this year on investment last year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? − Sedanje poslovno stanje podjetja: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? − Assessment of the present business situation: good, sufficient, bad? − Pričakovano poslovno stanje podjetja v naslednjih šestih mesecih: boljše, enako, slabše? − Expected business situation in the next six months: better, same, worse? − Pretežno lastništvo podjetja: zasebna domača last, zasebna tuja last, družbena lastnina, državna lastnina? − Ownership of the company by majority: domestic private, foreign private, public/social, state? − Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva v preteklem letu v primerjavi s predpreteklim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? − Percentage change in investment last year on investment two years ago: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? Jesenski vprašalnik: Autumn questionnaire: − Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva bodo v naslednjem letu v primerjavi z letošnjim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? − Percentage change in investment next year on investment this year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? − Struktura investicij letos in naslednje leto: zamenjava stare opreme, razširitev obstoječih zmogljivosti, razširitev proizvodnje na nove proizvode, avtomatizacija in mehanizacija, uvajanje novih proizvodnih tehnologij, racionalna raba energije, ekološke sanacije, večja varnost pri delu, ostalo? − Type of investment this year and next year: replacement of old equipment, investment aimed at extending production capacity with an unchanged product range, investment aimed at extending production capacity so as to extend the product range, mechanisation or automation of manufacturing process, introduction of new production techniques, energy saving, pollution control, safety measures, other? − Razlogi za neinvestiranje: nezadostno povpraševanje, premajhen profit, previsok kapitalski vložek, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, bojazen pred zadolžitvijo, previsoke kreditne obresti, nejasno lastništvo - privatizacija, ostalo? − Factors limiting investment decisions: insufficient demand, insufficient profits, too high cost of capital, insufficient credit guarantees, fear of indebtedness, too high interest rates, unclear ownership - privatisation, other? − Sedanje poslovno stanje podjetja: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? − Assessment of the present business situation: good, sufficient, bad? − Pričakovano poslovno stanje podjetja v naslednjih šestih mesecih: boljše, enako, slabše? − Expected business situation in the next six months: better, same, worse? − Pretežno lastništvo podjetja: zasebna domača last, zasebna tuja last, družbena lastnina, državna lastnina? − Ownership of the company by majority: domestic private, foreign private, public/social, state? − Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva bodo letos v primerjavi s preteklim letom: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? − Percentage change in investment this year on investment last year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? − Vpliv povpraševanja (izkoriščenost proizvodnih zmogljivosti in prodajna pričakovanja) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vpliva, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? − Influence of demand (the capacity utilisation rate and the sales prospects) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? − Vpliv razpoložljivosti finančnih virov in pričakovanega dobička na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu : zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivata, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? − Influence of financial resources or expected profits on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? − Vpliv tehničnih dejavnikov (tehnološki razvoj, razpoložljivost kvalificirane delovne sile in njihov odnos do novih tehnologij, tehnični pogoji za pridobitev investicijskih dovoljenj idr.) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivajo, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? − Influence of technical factors (technological developments, the availability of labour and its attitude towards new technologies, technical conditions for investment permits) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? − Vpliv drugih dejavnikov (davčna politika, možnost prenosa proizvodnje v tujino, ipd.) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivajo, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? − Influence of other factors (taxation, weather or not production can be transferred abroad) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? KOMENTAR COMMENT Anketa o investicijah je del Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih. V njej sodelujejo poleg podjetij, ki so vključena v mesečno Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih, tudi podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti uvrščena v dejavnosti rudarstvo in oskrba z elektriko, plinom in vodo. Omenjeno anketo izvajamo dvakrat na leto, in sicer marca ali aprila ter oktobra ali novembra. The Investment Survey is part of the Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing. In addition to enterprises participating in the monthly Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing, it also covers enterprises classified according to the Standard Classification of Activities into mining, and electricity, gas and water supply. The mentioned survey is carried out twice a year in March or April and in October or November. Statistične informacije, št. 129/2004 6 Rapid Reports No 129/2004 INVESTICIJE V OSNOVNA SREDSTVA FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION Napovedi iz oktobra lani za leto 2004 so bile take: 96 % podjetij je ocenilo, da bodo v letu 2004 vlagali v osnovna sredstva in da bodo investicijska vlaganja v letu 2004 glede na leto 2003 v povprečju večja za 24 %. October 2003 expectations for 2004: 96% of enterprises anticipated that they would have fixed capital formation in 2004 and that compared to 2003 it would increase on average by 24%. V aprilu 2004 je vlagalo v osnovna sredstva 97 % podjetij, to je za 2 odstotni točki več kot aprila 2003. 30 % podjetij je ocenilo, da bodo investicijska vlaganja v letu 2004 v primerjavi s predhodnim letom večja, 24 % podjetij pa, da bodo manjša. Po aprilski oceni direktorjev bodo investicijska vlaganja v letu 2004 glede na leto 2003 v povprečju večja za 16 % in tako manjša, kot so bila napovedana oktobra lani. In April 2004, 97% of enterprises had fixed capital formation, which is 2 percentage points more than in April 2003. 30% of enterprises thought that compared to 2003 fixed capital formation would increase, while 24% of enterprises thought that it would decrease. In April 2004, managers predicted that fixed capital formation in 2004 would exceed 2003 results by 16% on average, which is less than they predicted in October 2003. Z vidika velikostih razredov podjetij bo letos vlagalo v osnova sredstva 98 % velikih podjetij, 97 % srednje velikih podjetij in 92 % malih podjetij. V povprečju bodo investicijska vlaganja v letu 2004 glede na 2003 v velikih podjetjih večja za 6 %, v srednje velikih za 11 % in v malih za 66 %. As regards size classes of enterprises, this year 98% of large enterprises, 97% of medium-sized enterprises and 92% of small enterprises plan to have fixed capital formation. On average, compared to 2003 fixed capital formation will increase by 6% in large, by 11% in medium-sized and by 66% in small enterprises. Aprilska vrednost za leto 2003 glede na leto 2002 je bila nekoliko bolj ugodna, kot je bila napovedana. V letu 2003 je vlagalo v osnovna sredstva 96 % podjetij; investicijska vlaganja v letu 2003 so bila tako glede na leto 2002 v povprečju večja za 23 %. In April the value for 2003 compared to 2002 was slightly more favourable than predicted. In 2003, 96% of enterprises had fixed capital formation. Compared to 2002, fixed capital formation in 2003 increased by 23%. POSLOVNO STANJE INDUSTRIJSKIH PODJETIJ BUSINESS SITUATION IN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES Aprila je 35 % direktorjev pričakovalo v naslednjih 6 mesecih "boljše", 9 % direktorjev pa "slabše" poslovno stanje svojih podjetij. Sedanje poslovno stanje je 28 % direktorjev ocenilo z oceno "dobro", 15 % direktorjev pa z oceno "slabo". In April, 35% of managers expected better and 9% expected worse business situation in their enterprises in the next six months. The present business situation was evaluated as good by 28% of managers and as bad by 15% of managers. Poslovno stanje v aprilu po velikostnih razredih podjetij: The business situation in April by size classes of enterprises: V velikih podjetjih je 35 % direktorjev ocenilo poslovno stanje kot "dobro", 12 % direktorjev pa kot "slabo". V naslednjih 6 mesecih pa 31 % direktorjev teh podjetij pričakuje "boljše", 10 % direktorjev pa "slabše" poslovno stanje. In large enterprises, 35% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 12% as bad. In the next six months 31% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and 10% expect that it will deteriorate. V srednje velikih podjetjih je 21 % direktorjev ocenilo poslovno stanje z "dobro", 17 % pa s "slabo". Glede pričakovanega poslovnega stanja so optimistični, saj kar 39 % direktorjev pričakuje boljše poslovno stanje, 7 % direktorjev teh podjetij pa pričakuje slabše poslovno stanje. In medium-sized enterprises, 21% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 17% as bad. They are rather optimistic as regards the expected business situation since 39% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and 7% expect that it will deteriorate. V malih podjetjih pa se pričakovanja niso uresničila: 19 % direktorjev je poslovno stanje v aprilu ocenilo z "dobro", 20 % direktorjev teh podjetij pa s "slabo". V naslednjih 6 mesecih pa 39 % direktorjev malih podjetij pričakuje "boljše", le 5 % pa pričakujejo "slabše" poslovno stanje. In small enterprises expectations were not realised: 19% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 20% as bad. In the next six months 39% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and 5% expect that it will deteriorate. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 110 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 110 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and Manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.