446
Documenta Praehistorica XLVII (2020)
Introduction
Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with
major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past,
when the Earth system was forced across thresholds
(Alley 2003; 2005). Climate change, whether as se-
vere warming or cooling periods, is regularly associ-
ated with impacts such as droughts, dust storms, ex-
treme rainfalls, and flood events. Throughout prehi-
story, climate change was often a serious threat to
human life, and even altered the course of history.
Literature is replete with references showing, in par-
ticular, how periods of extended drought have result-
ed in food supply disruptions, famine, and massive
migrations of people, as well as being associated with
social conflicts and wars (Wilhite 1992.81–82).
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural
decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam 1, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz2, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami3
1 Department of History and Archaeology, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, IR
babak.bagloo@srbiau.ac.ir
2 Iranian Center for Archaeological Research, Research Institute of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, Tehran, IR
a.chaychi@richt.ir
3 Department of Archaeology, University of Tehran, Tehran, IR
kniknami@ut.ac.ir
ABSTRACT – During the Bronze Age, the cultural region of North Central Iran (NCI) suffered a long-
term cultural decline, probably due to severe droughts. According to paleoclimate research, during
the overall period c. 5.4–3.5 ka BP, four widely observable climatic events occurred at c. 5.3–5.0, 4.9–
4.7, 4.2–3.9, and 3.8–3.5 ka BP, and these appear to have caused widespread environmental dam-
age in the Near East. Archaeological evidence of the NCI-region reveals political events that can be
associated with the observed climatic variability. Paleoclimate research and archaeological studies
can attribute, in combination, the cultural decline of NCI during the Bronze Age to the Late Holo-
cene climate change.
IZVLE∞EK – V ≠asu bronaste dobe je pri∏lo na obmo≠ju severnega dela centralnega Irana do dolgo-
ro≠nega kulturnega zatona, ki so ga verjetno povzro≠ila obdobja hude su∏e. Glede na paleoklimatske
raziskave lahko prepoznamo ∏tiri zelo izrazite podnebne dogodke v obdobju med ok. 5,4 in 3,5 tiso≠
let pred sedanjostjo (le-ti so: 5,3–5,0 tiso≠ let, 4,9–4,7 tiso≠ let, 4,2–3,9 tiso≠ let ter 3,8–3,5 tiso≠ let
pred sedanjostjo), ki so povzro≠ili raz∏irjeno okoljsko ∏kodo na Bli∫njem Vzhodu. Arheolo∏ki zapisi
v tej regiji ka∫ejo na politi≠ne dogodke, ki jih lahko pove∫emo s podnebno spremenljivostjo. S pomo≠-
jo paleoklimatskih in arheolo∏kih raziskav lahko bronastodobni kulturni zaton na obmo≠ju sever-
nega centralnega Irana ve∫emo na pozno holocenske podnebne spremembe.
KEY WORDS – Bronze Age; Late Holocene; drought; North Central Iran; cultural decline
KLJU∞NE BESEDE – bronasta doba; pozni holocen; su∏a; severni centralni Iran; kulturni zaton
Pozno holocenski podnebni dogodki kot poglavitni dejavniki kulturnega zatona
v severnem delu centralnega Irana v bronasti dobi
DOI> 10.4312\dp.47.25
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
447
inhibit the survival of human societies altogether. In
consequence, the most appropriate archaeological
model to assume (and therefore to study) is that
during such periods many of the affected societies
would either have migrated to more favourable re-
gions, or alternatively have changed their subsis-
tence systems from sedentary-farming to pastoral-
nomadism, whereby in both cases they will surely
develop means for successful adaptive response to
the changing environment (i.e. habitat tracking sen-
su Harvey Weiss [ref e.g., https://uispp2018.sciences
conf.org/176190/document]).
Geography and climate of Central Iran
Apart from the northern and southern coastal regions
of Iran, about 90% of the country’s area is located
on a plateau with an average elevation of 1000m
asl, and more than half of Iran is covered by mount-
ainous and desert areas. The central Iran watershed
is surrounded by the mountainous regions of Alborz,
Zagros and eastern Iran, and includes 10 basins. The
NCI cultural region covers the entire Salt Lake Basin
(SLB) and the western part of the Central Desert Ba-
sin (CDB) (GOAF 2002). In this region, favourable
agricultural fields are located in the plains and allu-
vial fans, and the rest is a dry and unproductive area
(Fig. 1).
Due to the geographic situation of Iran in the subtro-
pical region, it generally has semi-arid to arid envi-
ronmental conditions. In the summer, the air tempe-
rature can rise to a maximum of 55°C, and winter
temperatures fall to a minimum of
–30°C. About 23% of the total rain-
fall occurs in the spring, 4% in the
summer, 23% in the autumn, and
50% in the winter (Frenken 2008.
185). The arrival of Mediterranean
and North Atlantic low-pressure
fronts into the continental climate
of the Middle East causes winter pre-
cipitation (Alijani, Herman 1985).
Annual rainfall in most parts of Iran
is less than 100mm, and 75% of pre-
cipitation occurs in only 25% of the
country’s total area. Moreover, 75%
of rainfall occurs when not needed
by the agricultural sector (Madani
2014.316). The average annual pre-
cipitation in SLB is about 250mm
and in CDB is about 115mm. The
long, permanent and freshwater ri-
vers of these basins include the Jaj-
An increasing number of paleoclimate studies de-
monstrate that, in effect since the late 6th millenni-
um BP, the climate has become drier, and this deve-
lopment may have led to the long-term cultural de-
cline that we can observe in the cultural region of
North Central Iran (NCI) during the Bronze Age. On
the other hand, an abrupt and rapid societal impact
of climatic variability has also been observed in
many regions of the Middle East, and in particular
during the so-called 4.2 ka BP event, which is con-
vincingly put forward as having caused, (1) the col-
lapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia (Cul-
len et al. 2000; Weiss 2016; Weiss et al. 1993), (2)
the occurrence of the First Intermediate Period in
Egypt (Bell 1971), as well as (3) the cultural transi-
tion of the Harappa culture to its period of post-ur-
banization in the Indus valley (Possehl 1997a; 1997b;
2000; Staubwasser et al. 2003). In the present paper,
we show that both slow and rapid processes can be
observed in many regions of Iran. According to avail-
able absolute dates, there is a cultural decline be-
tween the Iblis VI and Mashiz phases in Kerman (SE
Iran), between Banish and Kaftari phases in Marv-
dasht Plain (S Iran), in eastern Susiana and Dehlo-
ran Plains (SW Iran) for c. 900 to 1500 years (Voigt,
Dyson 1992.126–128), and also in North Central
Iran (NCI) during the Bronze Age (Pollard et al.
2012; 2013). In all these regions, it is most likely the
shortage of permanent water resources that will
have been responsible both for the abrupt severity
as well as the prolonged extension of the droughts,
which would have regularly occurred during the
climate change periods, often to such an extent as to
Fig. 1. Climatic classes and basins of Iran.
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami
448
roud, Karaj, Kordan, Khar, Ghara Chay and Qom in
SLB, and Hableh and Cheshmeh Ali in CDB. Most
prehistoric sites are located in SLB.
Climate change
What is termed ‘climate’ relates to temperature and
precipitation conditions that are averaged over pe-
riods of 30 years or more. Climatic graphs show that
the climate has been constantly changing, but we
often apply the term ‘climate change’ only to clima-
tic shifts that are experienced as unstable and un-
pleasant conditions that challenge our health and
comfort.
The Holocene period began at c. 11.7 ka BP after
the end of the 2.5 million-year-old Pleistocene and
coincides, on a larger time-scale, with the genesis of
the Neolithic Age. Although the Holocene climate is
not generally characterized by the extreme climate
fluctuations of the last glacial period, it nonetheless
shows significant variability (Anderson et al. 2007.
5). During the Holocene, with the occurrence of se-
vere warming and cooling periods, climate condi-
tions are known to have undergone frequent chan-
ges, and we may reasonably assume that they affect-
ed both nature and human cultures quite heavily.
The main causes for climate change include periodic
changes in the Earth’s orbit and axis, major varia-
tions in the thermohaline cycle, changing solar acti-
vity, and rise and fall of greenhouse gas emissions,
including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen, water
vapour, inter alia other mechanisms on different
time-scales (cf. Denton, Karlén 1973; Mayewski et
al. 1997; Bond et al. 2001; Anderson et al. 2007;
Berger 2013). In combination with positive and ne-
gative feedback, i.e. amplification also on different
time-scales, these changes can affect the Earth’s cli-
mate over millennia and centuries. However, in ar-
chaeological studies we must also account for the
existence of short-term weather oscillations, such as
ENSO events (El Niño and La Niña), that occur on de-
cadal time-scales (Philander 1989).
Consequences of climate change
Climate change, whether sudden or gradual, can
have widespread and profound effects on nature
(e.g., the physical and biological properties of the
environment), but – and what complicates matters –
for cultural systems the induced impact is to some
extent even more variable, since it depends strongly
on complex and interrelated factors such as system
pressure, adaptability, and survival strategies. In con-
sequence, the cooling and warming events, each one
occurring in some specific geographical position and
latitude, will affect the environment in often complex
manners, but most extremely by changes in humidi-
ty and temperature. However, perhaps the most fun-
damental changes occur in the livelihoods of all spe-
cies, when the system temperature exceeds some spe-
cific threshold, above (or below) which the tolerance
limits are overstretched and mortality increases.
In long response to severe, repeated, and abrupt cli-
mate changes, both individual humans as well as
groups are equipped with a wide variety of adapta-
tion and survival measures, including short- and
long-distance movements in the landscape, as well
as memory of the specific properties of these land-
scapes (cf. transhumance and migration). Archaeo-
logical findings show, for example, that humans
were capable of adapting to the extremely cold and
dry climate of the Arctic during the Late Pleistocene
c. 27 ka BP (Pitulko et al. 2004), just as they adapt-
ed to the arid conditions in the Thar (Enzel et al.
1999) and Sahara Deserts (deMenocal et al. 2000)
in the Late Holocene (Gupta 2004; Zerboni et al.
2016). In other cases, however, it appears that civili-
zations collapsed as a result of climate change (Pren-
tice 2009.2). With the recent increase in research
interest on these topics it is becoming increasingly
apparent that the relationship between humans,
plants, animals and their joint environment is so
highly diverse and variable that there is no simple
correlation between climate change and human res-
ponse (Petrie, Weeks 2018.302).
Climate change can, in several ways, affect human
life and survival, and a list of the main factors and
events that are associated with extreme weather
events would include: heat waves, cold spells, torren-
tial rainfalls, floods, droughts, sand and dust storms,
hurricanes, regional food shortages, the outbreak of
fatal diseases, civil conflict, war, migration and dis-
placement (McMichael et al. 2006). According to his-
torical documents, however, it is drought that can
be identified as the main (immediate) cause of fa-
mine, malnutrition and increased mortality rates,
although the impact of unfavourable climatic peri-
ods is practically always associated with the spread
of infectious diseases such as plague, cholera, smal-
lpox, and bloody diarrhoea (McMichael 2012). Psy-
chological studies also show that a wide range of cli-
mate change outcomes can have adverse effects on
people’s mental health by causing disorders such as
anxiety and depression (Trombley et al. 2017.45–
46; Frumkin et al. 2008.442).
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
449
Drought periods
Drought indicates a lack of suitable rainfall during
a long period of time, which leads to soil moisture
loss due to high evapotranspiration and a reduction
in runoff. In effect, drought disturbs the normal hu-
man and biological activities (Barry, Chorley 2009.
101). Drought is a creeping phenomenon, making
an accurate prediction of either its onset or end a
difficult task. Also, the impact of a drought depends
largely on society’s vulnerability to it at that parti-
cular moment (Wilhite, Glantz 1985.2–3). This phe-
nomenon, like all environmental hazards, has a wide
variety of natural and social dimensions. To begin,
drought reduces the amount of water in the rivers,
wetlands, and lakes, and is the biggest cause of de-
struction of forests and pastures. In the economy, its
most devastating effects relate to agricultural pro-
duction (Hejazizadeh, Javizadeh 2010.49–73). It
is immediately obvious, therefore, why Iran – which
is naturally a semi-arid and dry land – has in the
past so often been affected by short- and long-term
droughts. Iranian people have always been strug-
gling with this natural challenge, such that, accord-
ing to the inscription of Darius the Great (522–486
BC), the phenomenon of drought has long been
seen as a great enemy for Iranians (Sen 1941.91; see
https://ia801606.us.archive.org/31/items/in.ernet.
dli.2015.515396/2015.515396.Old-Persian.pdf).
One of the most direct consequences of drought is
that dust storms can seriously threaten the quality of
life and health of the people. Climate has an impor-
tant effect on the production, transfer and deposition
of dust, but wind, dust and climate actually have an
reciprocal relationship, since the atmospheric dust
particles themselves directly and indirectly affect the
climate, due to feedback processes (Goudie, Middle-
ton 2006.45). Dust storms are powerful winds that
affect vast areas. They can impact air quality, both
on long and short time-scales, as well as local and
global geographic dimensions (Schweitzer et al.
2018.36). In Iran, and mainly in its western, south-
western and southeastern regions, dust storms occur
predominantly in the summer (Furman 2003.419–
420). In 2014 a massive dust-storm occurred in Teh-
ran that caused considerable disturbance to the city,
due to disrupted trees and fallen objects, including a
number of fatal injuries. Such intense storms are also
documented in the past, whereby archaeological and
paleoclimate studies demonstrate their occurrence in
parallel to drought events. An example is the collapse
of the Akkad empire (2334–2155 BC), already men-
tioned above, that was affected not only by the ex-
treme drought conditions during the 4.2 ka BP event,
but also by severe dust storms. During the incident
it appears that many inhabitants of the northern
cities of Mesopotamia migrated to the south, where
the massive population further disrupted the already
critical economic and social situation (Weiss 2017;
2016; Weiss et al. 1993).
Extreme precipitation events, such as torrential rain-
falls and floods, represent yet another feature of
droughts. In dry periods, due to the decreasing pre-
cipitation and associated loss of vegetation, the ter-
restrial surface conditions are provided for an in-
crease in flood events. In consequence, and perhaps
unexpectedly, one of the best indicators for drought
periods is the occurrence of severe periodic rainfalls,
which lead to a high probability for the occurrence
of huge and destructive floods (Maghsoudi, Moham-
mad Nejad 2011.50–53). The archaeological exca-
vations at Mafin Abad and Meymanat Abad in Teh-
ran province and at Ghara Tepe of Qom river in
Qom province indicate that during droughts of the
middle and late 6th millennium BP these settlements
were buried under flood sediments and abandoned
forever (Shaikh Baikloo et al. in press; 2016).
Climatic events during the Bronze Age
The Bronze Age (c. 5.2–3.5 ka BP) coincided with
the beginning of urbanization, the invention of writ-
ing techniques, the emergence of social complexi-
ties, and the formation of primitive states to ad-
vanced empires. In broader terms, this cultural pe-
riod is contemporary with the late Middle Holocene
and the early Late Holocene. According to paleocli-
mate research, since the 6th millennium BP the cli-
mate generally shifted towards drier conditions (Bar-
Matthews et al. 1997; Mayewski et al. 2004; Migow-
ski et al. 2006; Sharifi et al. 2015) The studies re-
ported here show that during the Bronze Age four
climatic changes have occurred: (1) the 5.2 ka BP
event (c. 5.3–5.0 ka BP) caused dry climatic condi-
tions; (2) the 4.8 ka BP event (c. 4.9–4.7 ka BP) led
to a cold climate; (3) the 4.2 ka BP event (c. 4.2–3.9
ka BP) caused a megadrought (Weiss 2017; 2016;
Weiss et al. 1993), and significant political-social
events in the Middle East; (4) the most recent cli-
mate event during the Bronze Age occurred between
3.8 and 3.5 ka BP, and although it is likely that this
climate change was less severe than previous ones, it
can be linked to socio-political events of this period.
The 5.2 ka BP event (c. 5.3–5.0 ka BP)
Based on the chrono-stratigraphy of the Greenland
Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), a warm-dry period oc-
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami
450
curred between c. 5.3 and 5.0 ka BP (Fig. 2) (Alley
2003; 2004a; 2004b). Also, the (presumably same)
event at 5.2 ka BP has also been identified in Soreq
Cave (Bar-Matthews et al. 2011), at Van Lake (Lem-
cke, Sturm 1997), the Gulf of Oman (Cullen et al.
2000), the Arabian Sea (Sirocko et al. 1993), and on
Kilimanjaro (Thompson et al. 2006). Drought evi-
dence between 5.5 and 4.9 ka BP is also reported
from Mirabad Lake records (W Iran), where dry con-
ditions are accompanied by an increase in oxygen
isotopes, although similarly only coarsely dated to
the 5.2 ka BP event (Stevens et al. 2006; Jones et al.
2011.28). Paleoclimate records from Maharlou Lake
(S Iran) also indicate dry conditions that date from
c. 5.1 ka BP to the end of the 5th millennium BP
(Djamali et al. 2009.129–130), and studies at Arz-
han Lake (S Iran) similarly illustrate an arid climate
at c. 5.7–5.0 ka BP (Sadat Hoseini et al. 2016) (Fig.
3). At much higher dating resolution, and therefore
more convincingly, the detailed dust-chronology from
Lake Neor (NW Iran) suggests the pre-dominance of
dry climatic conditions over the region since the 6th
millennium BP (Fig. 5b) (Sharifi et al. 2015). Re-
cords of Lake Xiaolongwan (E Asia) show a warm
period between 5.2 and 4.9 ka BP (Fig. 4) (Xu et al.
2014). According to Shari Playa studies (central Iraq),
there was a dry period between 5.2 and 4.8 ka BP
(Jassim et al. 2007.8). Paleoclimate studies on Al-
Hussaynia in the same region also indicate warm-
dry climatic conditions from c. 6 to 3.5 ka BP (Ali
2014.595) (Fig. 3). Göl Hissar lake studies (SW Tur-
key) similarly determine that the climate has shifted
to drier conditions since c. 5.1 ka BP (Eastwood et
al. 2007.327).
The 4.8 ka BP event (c. 4.9–4.7 ka BP)
The GISP2 -stable-oxygen ice-core record indicates a
significant drop in air temperature between c. 4.9
and 4.7 ka BP, with a peak at c. 4.8 ka BP (Fig. 2)
(Alley 2004b.65). Reconstruction of Holocene climate
by studies at Sjuodjijaure Lake (N Sweden) shows a
decrease in temperature and progression of glaciers
between 5.1 and 4.5 ka BP (Rosén et al. 2001.560).
In the Baltic Sea basin, paleoclimate records show
a two-stage air temperature decrease, the first at 5.0–
4.5 ka BP and the second at 4.3–3.3 ka BP. Tempe-
ratures in the region started to drop at c. 5.0–4.5 ka
cal BP, coincident with decreased summer solar in-
solation due to the quasi-cyclical changes in the
Earth’s orbit (Borzenkova et al. 2015.42–44). Paleo-
climate records from Lake Xiaolongwan illustrate a
cooling period during the first half of the 5th millen-
nium BP, with a peak at c. 4.75 ka BP (Fig. 4) (Xu
et al. 2014.5).
The 4.2 ka BP event (c. 4.2–3.9 ka BP)
This climate change, identified as the 4th climatic
event of Bond in North Atlantic Basin (Bond et al.
1997; 2001), if only with medium dating resolution
and unfortunately still not independently confirmed,
apparently started at 4.2 ka BP and lasted for about
300 years. During this period a severe drought is
visible almost everywhere in SW Asia (Weiss 2017).
Given that the event has been recorded in more
than 20 locations around the world, it is likely to
have global character. However, at least at seven
locations (British Columbia in W Canada, Spain, Ire-
land, Romania, and Namibia and Namib Desert in S
Africa), the event is documented as a wet event
(Railsback et al. 2018.79, Fig. 1). The GISP2 studies
indicate a warming period, with a drop in humidi-
ty from around 4.3 to 4.1 ka BP (Fig. 2) (Alley 2004b.
65). Further evidence for a dry 4.2 ka BP event is
indicated by the coincident dust-increase in the Gulf
of Oman (Cullen et al. 2000), at Tecer Lake (Kuzu-
cuoglu et al. 2011), Soreq Cave (Bar-Matthews et al.
2011), the Dead Sea (Migowski et al. 2006), and to
some extent also from Zazari Lake (Cavallari, Rosen-
meier 2007). Further possible impacts of this event
are reported from Egypt, with geomorphological stu-
dies carried out in Faiyum Lake (Hassan, Hamdan,
2008; Marks et al. 2018) and the Sakkara-Memphis
flood plain (Hamdan et al. 2014). The core drilled
near the shore of Faiyum Lake shows that there was
an abrupt drop in water level as
the lake almost desiccated. The
Saqqara-Memphis core also indi-
cates an event of low Nile flood
as the valley dried out and aeo-
lian sand encroached. Evidence
suggests that the event caused
the movement of sand dunes,
the occurrence of sand and dust
storms and severe damage of an-
cient Egyptian settlements (Ham-
dan et al. 2016.39).
Fig. 2. Temperature changes in central Greenland during the Holocene
Age based on GISP2 Proxy Temperature Data (Alley 2004).
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
451
According to the Iranian research in Parishan Lake
(W Iran) (Davoodi et al. 2014) and Maharlu Lake
(Djamali et al. 2009), the climate was pre-domi-
nantly warm-dry in this region during the 5th mil-
lennium BP. The studies at Zeribar Lake studies (W
Iran) also indicate a dry period between 4 and 3.5
ka BP (Stevens et al. 2001) (Fig. 3). Paleoclimate re-
cords from Lake Hamoun (SE Iran) (Fig. 5a) (Ham-
zeh et al. 2017), Lake Neor (Fig. 5b) (Sharifi et al.
2015), and Jazmurian Playa (SE Iran) (Fig. 5c) (Vae-
zi et al. 2018) confirm the existence of geographi-
cally widespread dry conditions along with increas-
ing dust flux during the 4.2 ka BP event.
According to archaeological findings, as documented
from many regions in the eastern Mediterranean,
the Levant, and Mesopotamia, there was a significant
decline in the number of settlements during the
event (4.2–3.9 ka BP) (Staubwasser, Weiss 2006.
381). In the Levant, the 4.2 ka event is associated
with a 20–30% reduction in annual rainfall (Bar-
Matthews et al. 1997), which would have seriously
disturbed the subsistence system of farmer socie-
ties, and which is indeed indicated with only a few
settlements remaining in close vicinity to surface
water (Dever 1995; Palumbo 2001). We may expect
a similar situation to have occurred throughout west-
ern Syria and the middle Euphrates. According to
available palaeo-rainfall modelling studies, the Ha-
bur Plains in the North of Mesopotamia (NE Syria)
must have dried up, with dust storms causing such
a wide spectrum of economic and social problems
for the population that the proposed abandonment
of more than 70% of cities in the region is indeed
plausible. Ultimately, of course, it is not only drought
that caused the collapse of the Akkad dynasty, but
the direct combination of drought with related fac-
tors such as decreasing agricultural production, so-
cial implosion, internal riots and foreign attacks.
After the fall of the Akkad, the region was similarly
Fig. 3. The 13 000-year-old climatic condition based on paleoclimate studies in the Near East. Zeribar
Lake (Stevens et al. 2001; Wasylikowa et al. 2006; Maghsoudi et al. 2014); Mirabad Lake (Stevens et al.
2006); Arzhan Lake (Sadat Hoseini et al. 2016); Parishan Lake (Davoudi et al. 2014); Maharlou Lake (Dja-
mali et al. 2009); Van Lake (Wick et al. 2003); Tecer Lake (Kuzucuoglu et al. 2011); Shari playa (Jassim
et al. 2007); Al-Hussaynia (Ali 2014); Soreq Cave (Bar-Matthews et al. 2011); Dead Sea (Migowski et al.
2006); Zazari Lake (Cavallari, Rosenmeier 2007).
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami
452
rapidly re-settled at c. 3.9 ka BP (Weiss 2017; 2016;
Weiss et al. 1993). Cultural responses to the 4.2 ka
BP are also widely observed in the Harappa civiliza-
tion, and in particular around the Indus Valley to
Makran and north-western India. For example, from
the late 5th millennium BP to the early 4th millenni-
um BP, the impressive baths and cereal warehouses
in Mohenjo-Daro were abandoned, and the settle-
ment system in the Indus Valley, the Indus-Sarasva-
ti Valley and the Baluchi heights declined (Possehl
1997a; 1997b; 2000).
The warming event of c. 3.8–3.5 ka BP
This specific event coincides with the Second Inter-
mediate Period in the Egyptian Empire at c. 3.65–
3.55 ka BP (Ryholt 1997), and the end of the first
Dynasty in Babylonia, which is related to attacks by
the Hittites at c. 3.6 ka BP (Roebuck 1966). GISP2
studies (Alley 2004a) indicate a warming period
from c. 3.8 to 3.5 ka BP (Fig. 2). Paleoclimate records
from Lake Hamoun (Fig. 5a) (Hamzeh et al. 2017),
Lake Neor (Fig. 5b) (Sharifi et al. 2015), and Jazmu-
rian Playa (Fig. 5c) (Vaezi et al. 2018) suggest a dry
period with increasing dust flux during the warming
event. Zazari Lake studies also illustrate a drought
period between 4.05 and 3.5 ka BP (Cavallari, Ro-
senmeier 2007). Although studies of Zeribar Lake
(Stevens et al. 2001), Parishan Lake (S Iran) (Davou-
di et al. 2014), al-Hussaynia (Ali 2014.595), and Van
Lake (Wick et al. 2003) are suggestive of a warm-dry
climate at this time, the equally comprehensive pa-
leoclimate research at Mirabad
Lake (Stevens et al. 2006) and
Maharlou Lake (Djamali et al.
2009) indicates a warm-humid
climate. The existence of a hu-
mid period between 4.1 and 3.5
ka BP, followed by a long-term
dry period, is comparatively
well-documented in the Dead
Sea Levels (Migowski et al.
2006.427) (Fig. 3).
The Bronze Age in NCI
Just as in wider regions of the
eastern Mediterranean and the
Near East, in Iran (and more
specifically NCI) the Bronze Age
coincides with the beginning of
the Late Holocene. Again, it is
important to note what the pa-
leoclimate records indicate, na-
mely, beginning with the 6th
millennium BP a general development towards in-
creasingly drier conditions, on top of which there is
evidence for severe and prolonged droughts. From
the Late Chalcolithic Age to the Early Bronze Age (c.
5.4–4.7 ka BP), most of the human settlements in
NCI were gradually abandoned, and a period of cul-
tural decline lasted throughout the Bronze Age. Only
a few settlements near Damghan appear to have
been re-established, after about 600 years, and the
absolute dates suggest a settlement gap between the
Hissar II and III phases at c. 5.0–4.4 ka BP. About
two centuries later, Hissar III ended at 2170 cal BC
(Voigt, Dyson 1992.128, Tab. 1). It is worth noting
that, based on the similarities of the material culture
of Hissar III and Tourang Tepe IIIC, the authors
(Voigt, Dyson 1992) have increased the end of His-
sar III culture up to 1900 cal BC. However, given the
completely different climates of the Gorgan and
Damghan areas, it seems that with the beginning of
the 4.2 ka BP dry event (c. 4.2–3.9 ka BP) the phase
of Hissar III in Damghan started to decline at the
time of its maximum height (4.2–4.1 ka BP). The-
refore, these two cultures did not have a long-term
overlap. Thereafter, the cultural decline continued
up to the Iron Age. During this period, the settle-
ments appear to have shifted to the Gorgan Plain
(Fig. 6) and other southern areas of the Caspian Sea.
On the Qazvin Plain the settlement at Tepe Ghabri-
stan finally ended at the end of the Early Bronze Age
(2700 cal BC). However, Tepe Shizar and Tepe Sagza-
Fig. 4. A comparison of climate proxy records from core Lake Xiaolong-
wan with other proxy records for Total Solar Irradiance and Greenland
(GISP2) oxygen isotope (d18O). A 400–600-year band pass filter of Total
Solar Irradiance; B Residuals of PCA F1; C 400–600-year band pass fil-
ter of GISP2 oxygen isotope (d18O) (Xu et al. 2014.5, Fig. 6).
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
453
bad have layers belonging to
the Middle Bronze Age. Tepe
Shizar, after a settlement pe-
riod in the Chalcolithic Age,
was re-settled at 2860–2450
cal BC. Again following a gap
(2450–1880 cal BC), the site
of Tepe Shizar was re-settled
at 1880 cal BC, and lasted
until the Late Bronze Age or
maybe even longer, into the
Iron Age (Pollard et al. 2012.
115–116, 148, Tab. 16; Pol-
lard et al. 2013.45, Tab. 9).
Tepe Sagzabad was establi-
shed in the Chalcolithic Age
(3670–3540 cal BC), and was
then, after a long gap, re-set-
tled at 1780–980 cal BC (Pol-
lard et al. 2012.116–119, 148,
Tab. 16; 2013.45, Tab. 9).
Tepe Gholi Darvish in Qom, following a decline at
3000 cal BC, was re-settled at 2090–1860 cal BC. It
is unclear at what time the next settlement began,
but it ended at 1680 cal BC, and was again re-set-
tled at 1530 cal BC. The end of this settlement peri-
od is not well defined (Pollard et al. 2013.45, Tab.
9). On the basis of the available dates, we may spe-
culate that the settlement gaps coincide with the
peak of droughts, but which are themselves not pre-
cisely dated (Fig. 7). It is nevertheless conspicuous
that, when comparing the above-mentioned settle-
ments, almost all of the ancient sites in NCI declined
at c. 5.2–4.8 ka BP (Fig. 8), following which the
entire NCI cultural region fell into a long dark peri-
od which lasted until the 2nd half of the 4th millen-
nium BP (Shaikh Baikloo et al. 2016).
Migration to the Gorgan Plain
The Gorgan Plain, located in the north of Alborz
Mountains, is influenced by the Caspian climate and
has a higher humidity than NCI. Studies of the Cas-
pian Sea level (CSL) during
the Holocene Age show a gra-
dual decline since the middle
6th millennium BP, so that at
the beginning of the Bronze
Age CSL was lower than to-
day’s level, and this situation
continued until the early 4th
millennium BP (Richagov
1997.171, Fig. 5). This sug-
gests that drought periods,
despite the wetter climate of
the Gorgan Plain, have also
affected this region. It should
be further noted that the wa-
ter level of this large lake de-
pends on the inputs of the
Volga River, which originates
from Polar Regions. There-
fore, it is plausible that the
cooling conditions that pre-
Fig. 5. a Diagram of dust flux from Lake Hamoun in SE Iran (Hamzeh et
al. 2017.17, Fig. 6); b Variations of the Titanium (by the XRF analysis)
from Lake Neor in NW Iran (Sharifi et al. 2015.222, Fig. 4); c Elemental
ratios Titanium/Aluminium from Jazmurian Playa in SE Iran (Vaezi et
al. 2018.17, Fig. 5).
Fig. 6. Settlements of the Gorgan Plain from the second half of the 6th
millennium BP to the middle of the 5th millennium BP. It should be noted
that the number of sites found during archaeological surveys is more
than this number, but the author’s access to all reports was not possible.
However, the high density of these sites clearly indicates a significant
increase in human populations in this area between 5.4 and 4.5 ka BP.
In this map, the shorter and approachable mountainous communication
paths between the northern and southern parts of Alborz are clearly visible.
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami
454
vailed during the early 5th mil-
lennium BP, might have led to a
decrease in CSL (Fig. 9).
The density and height of the Al-
borz Mountains in the south of
the Gorgan Plain is lower than
the other parts, so that the situa-
tion allows for easy passage from
the southern part to the north.
Considering the revision of the relative dates of the
Chalcolithic-Bronze settlements in the Gorgan Plain
(Shaikh Baikloo 2018.298–330), which indicates a
population growth trend since the second half of the
6th millennium BP, along with a decrease in popu-
lation in NCI and the decline of CSL, it can be as-
sumed that with the intensification of drought the
Gorgan Plain may have become more attractive for
the settlement of farmer communities, and would
also have represented a desirable destination for the
migration of people affected by drought and famine
(Figs. 2, 3).
Conclusion
The Late Holocene was generally a period with in-
creasingly low humidity, accompanied by frequent
and prolonged droughts. Based on recent paleocli-
mate research, in the time-
span from the late 6th millen-
nium BP to the middle 4th
millennium BP, a total of four
climatic changes are identifi-
able, with the first three as fol-
lows: (1) the 5.2 ka BP dry
event (c. 5.3–5.0 ka BP); (2)
the 4.8 ka BP cooling event
(c. 4.9–4.7 ka BP); and (3) the
4.2 ka BP hyper dry event (c.
4.2–3.9 ka BP); some studies
have shown this event to be
very wet. Also, according to
Bond’s research in the North
Atlantic, the 4.2 ka BP event
was not only associated with
cooling. Ice-core research in
Greenland confirms it was a
warm event. Despite some
few remaining discrepancies
of this kind, there can be lit-
tle doubt concerning the glo-
bal character of the 4.2 ka BP
event, at least in the N-Hemi-
sphere. In the present paper,
looking from the perspective
of Iran, we can readily con-
firm that the observed wide-
spread settlement abandon-
ment, and the many postulat-
ed regional and supra-regio-
nal migrations during the time
of the 4.2 ka event, were like-
ly to have a direct causal back-
1500–1900 1900–2100 2100–2400 2400–3000 3000–3400 Time
BC BC BC BC BC Site
Sagz Aabd
Shizar
Gholi Darvish
Hissar
Fig. 7. The chronology of NCI from the Late Chalcolithic to the Early
Bronze Age, based on absolute dates (14C) of archaeological sites.
The black colour represents a cultural gap.
Fig. 8. a 1 Ismael abad, 2 Miyanpalan, 3 Ghabristan (Fazeli 2006); 4 Oz-
beki (Majidzadeh 2010); 5 Kavousiya (Mosadeghi 2001); 6 Cheshmeh
Ali (Fazeli et al. 2004); 7 Farhangian (Adibzadeh et al. 2014); 8 Meyma-
nat abad (Yousefi Zoshk et al. 2015); 9 Chaltasian (Yousefi Zoshk 2012);
10 Sofalin (Hessari 2011); 11 Shoghali (Hessari et al. 2007); 12 Zavarvar
(Ghasemi 2013); 13 Gholi Darvish (Sarlak 2011); 14 Sialk (Ghirshman
1938); 15 Arisman (Vatandoust et al. 2011); 16 Hissar (Schmidt 1937;
Dyson, Howard 1989). b 1 Shizar (Valipour 2006). Decreasing the num-
ber of NCI settlements from the Late Chalcolithic to the Early Bronze Age
and simultaneously increasing the Gorgan Plain settlements.
Late Holocene climatic events, the main factor of the cultural decline in North Central Iran during the Bronze Age
455
ground in the occurrence of severe droughts and
dust storm, in many parts of the eastern Mediterra-
nean, the Near East, as well as in the Middle East.
Although there are remaining doubts as to the ac-
tual severity and the geographic extension of the
4.2 ka event, and there are many societal details yet
to be analysed if not discovered, we see no reason
to exclude the hypothesis that the 4.2 ka BP event
(in particular, the associated droughts and dust-
storms) was the underlying cause for the collapse of
the Akkad Empire. And finally, with regard to our
fourth climatic change, for similar reasons we expect
that the 3.8–3.5 ka BP warm-dry event, although
much less equally established, was to some extent
also responsible for a number of socio-political
events in Egypt and Mesopotamia, at this time.
As applies specifically to NCI, this is a naturally semi-
arid and dry region, that faced so many severe envi-
ronmental challenges during periods of extended
drought, that ultimately – in the course of the Holo-
cene – it appears to have lost much of its early at-
traction for rural societies. Although surely only un-
der longer-term (millennial/centennial) conditions,
it is quite likely that many (real or potential) inhabi-
tants of this region were finally so perturbed by the
disruptive results of drought and famine that they
preferred to occupy more favourable (wetter) areas,
such as the Gorgan Plain in the Caspian Sea Basin.
We may assume that any larger scale migrations
would have taken the approachable mountainous
communication paths in the north of Damghan.
Nevertheless, despite some interruptions there is
strong evidence for the continuing cultural evolu-
tion of societies in NCI, throughout the region, from
the Late Neolithic to the Late Chalcolithic. This trend,
however, stopped at the peak of the
increasing social complexity of the
late 6th millennium BP, and did not
lead to the genesis of urban societies
and governments.
We thus propose, for good reasons,
that the prevailing drought condi-
tions in NCI may now be considered
the main factor of this cultural de-
cline, and in future studies we will
aim to identify the actual (internal)
stimuli for the observed societal res-
ponse towards climate change. Given
the fact that the formation of urban
or state societies requires an increase
in population and expansion of set-
tlement centres, the requirements for vital and en-
vironmental facilities will increase and become more
complex, such that the mere impact of cultural va-
riables or growth of technological factors cannot be
expected, in isolation, to bring these societies to the
stage of urbanization. At the end of the Chalcolithic
Age, the still continuing increase and indeed the
regional maximum in population and essential bio-
resources appear to have coincided with the 5.2 ka
BP dry event, following which the environmental
contexts necessary for the formation of urban and
state societies have disappeared. Due to the environ-
mental limitations of NCI, in this region there has
never been a further spread of settlements, and po-
pulation increase, as can be observed in the southern
regions of Iran. In conclusion, and if only for clima-
tic and environmental reasons, it is not expected that
– following the Late Chalcolithic – the cultural de-
velopment of this specific part of Iran would be si-
milar to that in Mesopotamia, Egypt and the Indus
Valley.
Fig. 9. The fluctuation of the Caspian Sea Level during the
Holocene (Rychagov 1997.171, Fig. 5).
Many thanks to Dr. Hamidreza Valipour for promot-
ing this article. We also wish to thank Professor Har-
vey Weiss and Professor Tony McMichael – may God
bless him – for their valuable articles on the impacts
of climate change.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Babak Shaikh Baikloo Islam, Ahmad Chaychi Amirkhiz, and Kamal Al-Din Niknami
456
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