Slovenian economic mirror October 2009, No. 10, Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 10 / Vol. XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Jure Brložnik, MA, Matevž Hribernik (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Barbara Knapič Navarrete, Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Saša Kovačič (Effects of the New Wage System on Wages and Individual Wage-forming Components by Public Sector Activity); Jana Javornik Skrbinšek, MSc (The UN Human Development Report2009); Jana Javornik Skrbinšek, MSc (Selected Indicators of Human Development ); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Self-sufficiency for Agricultural Commodities); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Milk Prices). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Terry Troy Jackson Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna Present d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................15 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................18 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................20 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................22 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................25 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................29 Effects of the New Wage System on Wages and Individual Wage-forming Components by Public Sector Activity......................................................................................................................................................................31 The UN Human Development Rport2009......................................................................................................................................33 Selected Indicators of Human Development...............................................................................................................................35 Self-sufficiency for Agricultural Commodities..............................................................................................................................37 Milk Prices...................................................................................................................................................................................................38 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................41 Boxes Box 1: Merchandise Market Shares in the EU...............................................................................................................9 Box 2: (In)solvency..........................................................................................................................................................11 Box 3: Signing the Annex to the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector....................................................17 Box 4: Main Aggregates of the General Government Sector (ESA 95)..................................................................26 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight International institutions revised upwards their autumn forecasts for economic growth in our main trading partners, while emphasising that the recovery will be slow and fairly uncertain. In light of a gradual improvement of certain indicators over the last few months (world trade, situation on financial markets, sentiment indicators), and particularly the positive effects on economic growth of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures by governments and central banks, international institutions (EC, IMF) revised upwards their autumn forecasts for our main trading partners, especially for the coming year. However, given the temporary nature of these stimulus measures, they point out that the recovery will still be sluggish and uncertain, and marked particularly by further unemployment growth. Data on economicactivity in Sloveniaindicate stabilisation, or even a slight improvement in certain sectors in the summer months, but the values of main indicators were nevertheless significantly lower y-o-y in August. According to seasonally adjusted data, the values of nominal merchandise exports and the volume of production in manufacturing increased in the last four months, except in July. The values of real turnover in retail trade and hotels and restaurants remained at approximately the same level, while the value of construction put in place continued to decline. The values of all five indicators remained up to one fifth lower y-o-y. The solvency of enterprises has been deteriorating notably since October 2008, given that in the first nine months of this year 40.7% more legal entities had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five days in a month, and the average value of their outstanding matured liabilities was nearly 75% higher than in the similar period last year. The value of the sentiment indicator declined in October for the first time since March, particularly due to lower consumer confidence. The number of persons in employment continued to decline in August. Unemployment growth accelerated further in October, with the number of registered unemployed reaching 94,591 by the end of the month. The number of employed persons declined by 0.2% in August (seasonally adjusted), being 3.0% lower than a year before. The number of employed persons continued to decline most notably in manufacturing and was 11.5% lower than in August 2008. In October, the number of registered unemployed increased by 6,255, largely due to a seasonal inflow of first-time job-seekers, but also a higher number of people who became unemployed after their companies went bankrupt. It was more than one half higher than in the same period last year. The average gross wage per employee dropped in August due a decline in private sector wages; in the public sector, a new agreement was reached in October on measures regarding public sector wages in the following two years. In the private sector, the average gross wage per employee declined (-1.2%) in all activities (except in hotels and restaurants), while the average gross wage in the public sector increased by 0.8%; wage rises were recorded in all activities, except in education. Due to unacceptable differences between the foreseen wage rises in the public and private sectors, and the negative impact the elimination of disparities would have had on the government budgetary position, had it been carried out according to the February agreement, the government reached a new agreement with trade unions in October, according to which the average public sector gross wage would increase by 3.1% next year, by our estimate (compared with 10.3% as foreseen by the February agreement). However, after all disparities have been eliminated, wage growth will be much higher than estimated before the beginning of the wage reform if there are no further interventions in the wage system; in addition to movements across wage brackets and promotions, this is also a consequence of other wage-forming elements in the structure of wages (overtime work and payments in arrears), particularly in health activities. Y-o-y consumer price growth remained at around 0% in the last three months. Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in October, but they remained unchanged y-o-y. This price movement in the last few months is largely a consequence of significant y-o-y commodity price drops, which were reflected in a great negative y-o-y contribution of prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, and low economic activity, which is also softening price pressures in other price groups. Growth in services prices is, as expected, declining at the slowest pace. October saw negative price growth (-0.1%) throughout the euro area. Y-o-y inflation is estimated to increase somewhat by the end of the year, mainly due to the base effect or the decline in oil prices in the last two months of2008, which will start to have an opposite effect to that of recent months. After four months of surplus, the current account balance slipped into a deficit in August, largely due to the greatest monthly deficit in merchandise trade this year. The merchandise trade balance slid into a deficit in August, though a much narrower one than last year. However, due to the different structure of the economic activity Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 4 In the Spotlight decline, this year saw changes in the balance of merchandise trade by purpose, where in the first eight months, the greatest deficit declines were posted for trade in investment goods and trade in intermediate goods, while the surplus in consumer goods increased. The current account was balanced in the first eight months of the year, while running a deficit of EUR 1.4 bn in the same period last year. Lending activity of Slovenian banks also remained modest in September; the volume of government deposits strengthened significantly again, as the government invested the bulk of proceeds from the third bond issuance this year in short-term bank deposits. Y-o-y growth of loans has dropped below 5.0%. In the first nine months of2009, banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 878.6 m, only slightly more than one fifth of what was recorded in the same period last year. The bulk came from household borrowing (housing and consumer loans), while corporate borrowing remained modest. In September, the government strengthened the volume of its bank deposits again, with proceeds from the third bond issuance (EUR 1.5 bn) accounting for a significant portion of funds. Even more than in Slovenia, the lending activity is slowing in the euro area as a whole; in September, the volume of loans recorded its first negative y-o-y growth. The y-o-y decline in paid taxes and social security contributions was somewhat smaller in the summer months, but was still relatively high in the first nine months of the year. In the first nine months of the year, revenues from taxes and social security contributions were 7.6% lower than in the same period last year and only revenues from excise duties and social security contributions increased y-o-y. According to non-consolidated data, the general government deficit climbed to EUR 1,031 m in the first eight months of his year. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends 7 International environment The international institutions (EC, IMF, Consensus) revised upwards their autumn forecasts for this year and the next, in comparison to what they expected in the spring, emphasising that the recovery will be slow and uncertain, as well as, a particularly jobless one. Developed economies are already showing the first signs of stabilisation or economic recovery, mainly as a result of extensive measures in response to the crisis. In the G20 group, the fiscal policy measures alone account for 2.0% of GDP this year and 1.5% of GDP in 2010. The EC and IMF thus significantly revised upwards their autumn forecasts for economic growth in 2010. The EC forecasts a 4% GDP decline for this year and 0.7% growth for 2010. The forecasts by international institutions for this year are already fairly uniform; disparities in the forecasts for 2010 are greater. What is characteristic of the latest forecasts is that they all anticipate further unemployment growth, even if the economy is set to recover next year; unemployment in the euro area is expected to climb from 9.5% this year to 11.5% next year (having totalled 9.7% in September) according to the EC. According to the EC estimate, the time lag between the GDP decline and unemployment growth is largely a result of extensive measures aimed at preserving jobs. There is little leeway in keeping or even increasing the measures, given that numerous countries have already seen a significant deterioration in their fiscal stance. The EC projects a general government deficit of more than 6.5% for the euro area this year, while the deficits in the US and some other countries will widen by more than 10%, according to the IMF forecasts. Despite the deteriorated public finance position, a premature withdrawal of fiscal stimulus packages represents one of the main risks to economic activity next year. The short-term indicators of economic activity are otherwise improving slightly in the euro area: for example, industrial production in manufacturing increased in August, for the fourth month in a row. Confidence indicators are also improving, reaching values posted before the deepening of the crisis in September 2008. In the third quarter, the US posted 3.5% growth (q-o-q, annualised), boosted by government measures to revive domestic consumption (new car stimulus measures and tax credits for home purchases). The current economic crisis is characterised by a great decline in trade flows; a slight improvement over the last months is one of the main reasons for more optimistic global economic forecasts. According to seasonally adjusted data, the falling of the CPB world trade volume index slowed notably in the second quarter (-0.9%) of 2009, after a significant decline in the last quarter of 2008 (-7.0%) and in the first quarter this year (-10.7%). In August, world trade was still 15.4% lower than what was recorded when the crisis deepened in September last year. Thus far, the volume of world trade has dropped twice as much as it did in the equivalent period during the crisis of the 1930s, which means (according to the EC) that this time it will take longer to return to pre-crisis levels. According to the EC estimates, it took approximately two years in the past, while it is expected to take at least three years this time. Among the reasons for this sizeable world trade Figure 1: World trade volume index 170 / Vv r Source: CPB. 160 140 100 30 Table 1: IMAD assumptions and forecasts by international institutions for economic growth 2009 2010 2011 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 CONS Oct 09 EC Nov 09 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 CONS Oct 09 EC Nov 09 IMAD Sep 09 CONS Oct 09 EC Nov 09 EMU -3.9 -4.2 -3.9 -4.0 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 EU -4.2 -4.2 -4.0 -4.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 1.6 N/A 1.6 DE -4.8 -5.3 -5.0 -5.0 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 IT -5.2 -5.1 -5.0 -4.7 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 AT -3.5 -3.8 -3.6 -3.7 0.0 0.3 -0.1 1.1 1.6 N/A 1.5 FR -2.1 -2.4 -2.1 -2.2 0.6 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 UK -4.7 -4.4 -4.3 -4.6 -0.3 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 ZDA -2.8 -2.7 -2.5 -2.5 0.9 1.5 2.6 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.0 Source: IMAD Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends (September 2009). IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2009). Consensus Forecasts (October 2009). European Commission Autumn Forecast (November 2009). 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends decline, the international institutions mainly quote (amid significantly lower demand) the internationalisation of production chains, because of which the crisis has spread so rapidly across the global economy as a whole. Among the less important reasons they cite a limited availability of trade finance, which was considered the main factor in the world trade decline at the beginning of the crisis. Despite certain signs of a slight recovery in recent months, the prospects for world trade growth remain modest. After an almost 12% decline in the volume of world trade this year, the EC and IMF forecast that world trade will increase only by 2.5% to 3.9%. At the beginning of October, oil prices again started to increase more rapidly, while the growth of non-fuel commodity prices is slowing. The average monthly price of Brent crude oil was up 7.4% to USD 72.77/barrel in October. Oil prices in US dollars were up 7.6% in October, while oil prices in euros rose by 6.0%. In the same period, the dollar depreciated against the euro by 1.7%. The non-fuel commodity price index recorded slower growth in recent months and declined by 3.1% in September, according to the IMF data. The value of the metal price index dropped as well. In the first half of 2009, its growth was boosted particularly by an increase in inventories in China. Despite a 1.8% decline in September, the index is 33.7% higher than at the beginning of the year. Figure 2: Movements of the price of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate 160 140 120 100 T ^ 80 5 60 40 20 0 -Price in USD (left axis) Exchange rate USD / EUR (right axis) S Ü 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 œ Žu 1.40 Ï a. D m 1.35 3 1.30 1.25 1.20 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. In October, the dollar continued to depreciate against the euro, falling to its record lows. The average exchange rate of the euro was USD 1.4816 to EUR 1 in October, up 1.7% from September or 10.2% from December 2008. In the last month, the value of the euro also appreciated strongly against the British pound sterling (2.7% to 0.9156 GBP to 1 EUR), while the values of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc remained practically unchanged. As expected, none of the main central banks changed their key interest rates in October, and they remained at record lows (ECB 1.0%, FED 0.0%, BoE 0.5%). In October, the value of the three-month EURIBOR remained at approximately the same level as in September, totalling 0.738%. Economic activity in Slovenia The seasonally adjusted value of merchandise exports and industrial production in manufacturing increased slightly in August. Real turnover in retail trade and in hotels and restaurants remained roughly unchanged, while the value of construction put in place continues to drop.1 According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of nominal merchandise exports and the volume of industrial Figure 3: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Merchandise exports (nom.) ■■ Value of construction put in place - Turnover in hotels and restaurants 1 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Industrial production in manufact. Turnover in trade Sentiment indicator (right axis) 16 12 8 4 0 A € N/ % ^___.. \ '■li — \ \ -12 -16 -20 -24 -28 -32 Sggggggg Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 4: Merchandise exports and imports -Exports -Imports / / K A / P y » SSSSgg&ÖSSgg Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. 5 90 80 70 9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends production in manufacturing increased slightly in August, after July's drop. The value of construction put in place, on the other hand, declined in August, for the fifth month in a row. Real turnover in retail trade and real turnover in hotels and restaurants remained at approximately the same level in August as in previous months. In July, the values of nominal merchandise exports, the volume of production in manufacturing and construction put in place remained about one fifth lower y-o-y, while real turnovers in retail trade and hotels and restaurants dropped by more than 15% and 10%, respectively. The sentiment indicator declined in October for the first time since March. Merchandise trade has been increasing in recent months, but its growth is still modest.2 According to seasonally adjusted data, imports strengthened at the monthly level for the third month in a row (4.4%). Exports, which had Box 1: Merchandise market shares in the EU After declining at a significantly slower pace in the first quarter, the market share of Slovenian merchandise in the EU increased again in the second quarter. Before the market share decline in 2008, which was particularly pronounced in the second half of the year, Slovenia had been continually increasing its market share on the internal EU market for seven years. Looking at the main SITC groups, the increase in the Slovenian merchandise market share in the EU in the second quarter of this year was mainly underpinned by chemical products and machinery and transport equipment. The share of the former largely increased as a result of higher market shares of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, which (unlike most of the other manufacturing sub-sectors) did not face shrinkage of demand on EU markets during the international economic crisis.1 The increase in the share of machinery and transport equipment was mainly driven by higher exports of road vehicles under the impact of measures to stimulate car purchases in certain countries of the EU. The market share of manufactured goods, accounting for more than 90% in the structure of merchandise exports, consequently also ceased to decline in the second quarter. However, the market shares of the remaining two manufacturing sectors, manufactured goods classified chiefly by material2, iand miscellaneous manufactured articles,3 continued to decline in the second quarter. These declines were mainly due to falling market shares of iron and steel, other metal products and furniture, prefabricated buildings and clothing. Miscellaneous manufactured articles, which mainly include labour-intensive products, have seen their market share in the EU (which had already been falling for several years) shrink further over the last year, which shows the weight of this sector's internal weaknesses, which were only aggravated by the international economic crisis. In addition to manufactured goods, higher market shares than a year before were also reached by the sectors of food and beverages, and raw materials, which represent a mere tenth of Slovenia's merchandise exports to the EU. Growth in the market share of food and beverages was mainly impacted by growing exports of feeding stuff for animals, while the market share of raw materials also increased due to higher electricity exports. Figure 6: Market shares in the EU according to SITC in the Figure 5: Market shares in the EU first haf of 2009 1 Exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to the EU increased y-o-y in the second half of 2008 and in the first half of 2009. 2 Sector 6 according to SITC: leather, rubber, paper, wood, textile and metals. 3 Sector 8 according to SITC: prefabricated buildings, furniture, clothing, footwear, other consumer goods. 2 According to the external trade statistics. 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends already been rising modestly between April and June this year, increased again (1.6%), after dropping in July. Merchandise exports were 19.8% lower y-o-y in August, with exports to non-EU countries again recording a more significant decline (by 22.0%) than exports to EU Member States (by 18.7%). Merchandise imports, which dropped even more noticeably than exports during the crisis as a result of lower foreign and domestic demand, were 26.4% lower y-o-y in August (imports from the EU dropped by 25.0% and imports from the non-EU countries by 31.2%). In the first eight months of this year, merchandise exports declined by 22.6% y-o-y and imports by 29.9%. The terms of merchandise trade improved significantly in July.3 The terms of merchandise trade have been improving since energy and commodity prices started to drop (November 2008). Slovenian producer prices in the euro area have been declining since February. Posting increasingly slower growth since the beginning of this year, producer prices also dropped in non-euro countries y-o-y in July. Given that in July, the y-o-y drop of export prices was much less pronounced than in June (6.0%) and that import prices recorded a stronger decline (13.6%), the terms of merchandise trade improved by a high of 8.9%. In the first seven months, they improved by 6.3%, but the purchasing power of income from exports was 15.1% lower y-o-y due to a greater drop in the volume of exports in the first seven months of 2009. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Figure 7:Terms of merchandise trade ^^^m Terms of trade -----Export prices 112 110 108 106 104 8 102 ! 100 c 98 o ^ 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 Import prices ■■iri|i||i| Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The decline in the exports of services slowed y-o-y in the last three months, while the decline in services imports was somewhat stronger. Exports of services were by a nominal 12.9% lower y-o-y in August and by 15.1% in the first eight months of this year. Y-o-y drops were diminishing steadily in the recent three months, largely as a result of lower drops in exports of transport and certain business services. Imports of services were 12.6 % lower y-o-y in % 2008 VIII 09/ VII 09 VIII 09/ VIII 08 I-VIII 09/ I-VIII 08 Exports1 4.8 -19.0 -18.2 -21.2 -goods 1.3 -23.8 -20.2 -22.7 -services 21.6 -3.6 -12.9 -15.1 Imports1 6.4 -15.0 -24.3 -27.4 -goods 5.7 -14.9 -26.6 -29.8 -services 10.8 -15.4 -12.6 -10.8 Industrial production -1.2 3.52 -16.23 -20.83 -manufacturing -1.3 3.72 -19.83 -22.23 Construction -value of construction put in place 15.7 -0.62 -19.63 -19.43 Distributive trade - turnover in distributive trade and the sale and repair of motor wehicles 10.4 -0.72 -16.53 -13.43 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -2.7 -0.42 -10.73 -10.53 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data. in August, having declined by 10.8% in the first eight months of this year. Y-o-y drops in services imports are more volatile, having strengthened somewhat in the past three months. Y-o-y drops in imports of transport services were smaller; much more noticeable declines were recorded for imports of various professional and technical, and construction services. Afterthevolumeofindustrialproductioninmanufacturing had remained roughly unchanged in the previous three months, production activity strengthened in August. It was 3.7% higher (seasonally adjusted) compared to July, but 19.8% lower (working-day adjusted) relative to August last year. In the first eight months, production activity Figure 8: Industrial production in manufacturing by main industrial groupings in the first eight months of 2009 ■ Slovenia ■ EU-27 E -25 3 According to the external trade statistics. Intermediate Capital Consumer Durable Non-durable goods goods goods consumer consumer industries industries industries goods goods industries industries Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 0 -10 -15 11 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends was 22.2% lower y-o-y (working-day adjusted), while it dropped by 17.8% in the EU as a whole. The stronger production decline in Slovenia compared with the EU average was mainly underpinned by low-technology, labour-intensive industries (particularly the textile and leather industries and the manufacture of furniture), whose products are mainly classified as consumer goods. These movements are indicative of the lower competitiveness levels of these industries in Slovenia (see the box above); in the period of economic boom, these industries managed to keep a relatively high share in the structure of value added in manufacturing, also through economic policy support. A smaller y-o-y production drop in August than in the first half of the year as a whole was mainly due to more favourable movements in some export-oriented industries with higher technology intensity. The manufacture of metals and metal products, ICT and electrical equipment, motor vehicles and other transport equipment, as well as rubber and plastic products contributed less than one third to the production volume decline in August, Figure 9: Industrial production in manufacturing by subindustries ■ Ja n.-Jun. 2009/Jan.-Ju n. 2008 Jul.-Aug.2009/Jul.-Aug. 2008 Source: SORS; calculatuions by IMAD. Note: industrial groups, arranged in order of ascending weight. Box 2: (In)solvency Figure 10: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and average total amount of outstanding liabilities Other activities (left axis) Manufacturing (left axis) Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (left axis) ^^m Construction (left axis) Average total daily amount of outstanding liabilities (right axis) ---- 200 The number of legal entities recording outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities were increasing gradually in the first nine months this year. In September 2009, there were as many as 4,541 legal entities that had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, which is 1,460 (47.4%) more than in September last year. The average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities totalled EUR 181 m, 70.7% more than in September 2008. The number of legal entities with matured liabilities that were outstanding for more than five consecutive days in a month increased most notably in construction. Their share in the structure of the total number of legal entities under consideration increased to 23.1% in September this year, while their share in the average daily amount of all outstanding matured liabilities rose to 25.1%. In the first nine months of 2009, 3,935 legal entities, on average, had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month (40.7% more than in the same period last year), within that more than one fifth in construction and in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, and 10% each in manufacturing and in professional, scientific and technical activities. The average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities in the average monthly amount of EUR 163 m was higher by almost three quarters than in the same period last year. Source: AJPES. Altogether, 188 bankruptcy procedures were launched in the first nine months of this year, the most in manufacturing (45) and the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (42), construction (24), professional, scientific and technical activities (21), and hotels and restaurants (14). Bankruptcy procedures were mainly launched against small enterprises, but a few were also filed against large enterprises. In the first nine months of this year, 34 personal bankruptcy procedures were filed against sole proprietors, the most in construction (10), hotels and restaurants (9), and the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (6). Only one compulsory settlement procedure was filed against a legal entity in September. In the first nine months of this year as a whole, eight compulsory settlement procedures were filed against legal entities and none against sole proprietors. 80 60 40 20 0 12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 11: Business trends in manufacturing - situation indicators -Production -Export order-books -----Overall order-books -----Stock of finished products 30 20 -a 10 et ■Ü 0 d a -10 O Source: SORS. compared with more than one half in the first half of the year. The manufacture of motor vehicles and other transport equipment is the only manufacturing industry where movements were slightly more favourable than in the EU in the first eight months of the year (as a result of measures taken in certain countries of the EU to stimulate car purchases). This sector posted the smallest y-o-y production activity decline in August (-0.4%), besides the food industry. The production decline was greatest once again in the textile and leather industries, while deepening most notably in the manufacture of other machinery and equipment whose contribution to the production drop increased the most. indicators of expectations, which had been improving in previous months, remained at approximately the same level in October as in September, while the values of situation indicators improved (except for the stocks of finished products). The overall order-books indicator improved the most, but is still low. The indicator of new orders improved most notably also according to the quarterly data on business trends. For the first time in four quarters, the share of enterprises posting increases in new orders in the last three months exceeded the share of those where new orders declined. Also in the third quarter, more than half of the enterprises surveyed cited insufficient domestic and foreign demand as the main factor limiting production. Capacity utilisation thus remains low (72.4%, seasonally adjusted, SORS), but it increased somewhat in the third quarter. Figure 13: Value of construction put in place - Construction -total ■ Residential buildings ■ Civil engineering works - Buildings -Total - Non-residential buildings ,K \ iß Y\ , - \ / ,'//7 \\-' V • if \ \ \ §1 -V. v. k/ ; The prospects for the coming months deteriorated slightly according to the data on business trends in manufacturing, but the values of the situation indicators improved. The Figure 12: Business trends in manufacturing -expectation indicators - Production expectations Expected employment - Expected total demand - Selling price expectations Expected export order-books /V / » A-0' .K-' \ VV\ / \ »v \ 7 V V \ Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 88 00 lu tc JO Source: SORS Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 9 0 cO Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity dropped in August for the fifth successive month. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place dropped by 0.4% in August, being 16.0% lower than in March, when it had started to decline. It dropped by roughly one fifth from what was recorded in the same month last year. Activity in non-residential construction was still relatively low, despite strengthening in August. Over the last few months, activity declined the least in civil engineering and the most in the construction of residential buildings.4 Judging from new orders and business trend indicators, construction activity will continue to decline. The share of road transport in total inland freight transport increased further this year, amid a greater decline in freight transport by rail. The volumes of road freight transport and rail freight transport dropped by 10% and 25% y-o-y, respectively, in the first half of 2009. Rail transport 4 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it excludes the activity of smaller enterprises, where, by our estimate, the main activity is the construction of buildings. 40 13 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends declined by approximately the same figures in the first and second quarters of the year and posted similar drops for national transport and international transport, while the volume of road freight transport fell somewhat less in the second quarter than in the first. It was 7.6% lower y-o-y (12.7% in the first quarter), with a significantly larger decline in national transport (-19.2%) than in international transport (-8.3%). Amid a greater fall in the volume of rail freight transport, the share of road freight transport in inland freight transport climbed above 85.0% in the second quarter of 2009 (having already exceeded the EU average in 2005). Road freight transport and rail freight transport were also the main factors in the total decline of transport activities. Road freight transport and rail freight transport are the most important transport activities in the sector, accounting for 48.0% and 14.1% shares of value added in 2008. This is also why they made the greatest contributions (4.8 p.p. and 3.5 p.p., respectively) to the total y-o-y decline in the volume of transport activities in the first half of 2009 (10.8%). Air transport and airport traffic contributed slightly less than 1.0 p.p. each to the decline. These two activities continued to decline strongly y-o-y in the first half of the year (falling by 20.9% and 14.7%, respectively); in addition to the recession, this was also due to the effect of the high base due to the Slovenian presidency of the EU last year, and the decline rates had already diminished significantly by August 2009 (to 4.3% and 5.5%, respectively). Figure 14: Volumes of road freight transport and rail freight transport M Road freight transport Railway freight transport -Share of road transport (right axis) 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 r^fNrOTCOfNrOTOlfN OOOOOOOOOO 5 5 5 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Contributions to the decline in transport activity in the first half of 2009 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20 -22 -24 -26 I ii § n ! if! * ti £ JM I I I c £ if 4 I IIn September, electricity output was again somewhat higher y-o-y, while consumption dropped approximately by the percentage of this year's average monthly decline. Electricity output was 3.2% higher y-o-y in September. Production in hydroelectric plants increased significantly again (by 75.0%). In the first nine months, electricity production remained unchanged y-o-y.5 In September, electricity consumption was 12.6% lower than in the same period last year, similar to the average of the first nine months. More than half of the shrinkage in demand still came from lower electricity consumption in the metal industry. With lower demand due to the recession, Slovenia recorded a high electricity surplus in the first nine months this year (exceeding 21.6% of production). Electricity exports accounted for 3.1% of electricity production in the first nine months of this year, even if we exclude the exports to Croatia of half of the electricity generated by the nuclear power plant (NEK) (determined on the basis of Croatia's stake in the joint venture for the Figure 16: Net electricity exports ^m Exports of 50% of NEK production to Croatia (left axis) —■— Imports (left axis) 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 8 S Other exports, excl. exports of 50% of NEK production to Croatia (left axis) -Share of net exports in consumption, excl. exports of 50% of NEK production (right axis) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 ^TcorNm^rc^rNm aoaaaoaa a a Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: column widths signify the shares of value added in transport activities. 5 Production in hydroelectric power plants increased by around 35.5%, while production in the nuclear power plant was around 11.2% lower due to this year's regular monthly overhaul; electricity generated in thermal power plants also declined, by 10.9%, due to lower demand. 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends power plant construction). While Slovenia had seen very high net electricity imports in two quarters of 2007 (over 28% of consumption) according to this calculation, the supply-demand balance was favourable in the second quarter of this year, which is also reflected in an additional surplus of the rest of electricity exports over imports (totalling 14% of consumption). In August, total real turnover in retail trade6 remained at approximately the same level for the third month in a row (seasonally adjusted), while still posting a sizeable decline y-o-y (-15.0%). In August, the y-o-y turnover declines deepened further in specialised stores selling automotive fuels and in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco. Smaller turnover declines than in previous months were recorded for the sale of non-food products and the sale of motor vehicles, which was, however, a consequence of last year's y-o-y drops in turnover in August (after the increases recorded in previous months) rather than a sign that turnover had started to decline at a slower pace. In the first eight months, total turnover in retail trade was more than 13% lower y-o-y. In this period, the greatest declines in turnover were recorded for the sale and repair of motor vehicles (by one quarter) and in specialised stores selling automotive fuels (by one fifth), while increases were only posted for specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products (by nearly 4%) and specialised stores selling textile, clothing and leather products (by slightly more than 2%). Nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined again in August; at the y-o-y level, the decline remained at the high level of previous months. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade was more than a quarter lower in August, being more than one fifth lower in the first eight months as a whole than in the same period last year. Figure 17: Turnover in retail trade and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles -Total retail trade - Automotive fuel - Food, beverages, tobacco - Non-food -Motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts 60 Ï 20 \f n 7v7\ v' \ Turnover in hotels and restaurants remained roughly unchanged in August (seasonally adjusted), posting a somewhat smaller y-o-y decline. A lower level of turnover this year compared with August last year is most probably attributable to the non-tourist part of this sector (household food and beverage purchases), given that the number of tourist overnight stays was 5.0% higher after declining or stagnating for three months. Turnover may have also been lower due to a different structure of tourists, given that the number of domestic tourists increased (by 16.0%), while the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists remained at the level of last year. Total real turnover was more than a tenth lower y-o-y in the first eight months of this year. Figure 18: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in hotels and restaurants -Overnight stays - total ---Overnight stays -domestic -Overnight stays -foreign 20 15 10 Üf 5 S or ä 0 o -5 -10 -15 -20 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Amid a relatively large surge in consumer optimism, household borrowing in the form of consumer loans increased in September. Households raised a net EUR 18.7 m in consumer loans, the highest figure since last October (see Financial Markets). In September, natural persons registered 550 more new passenger cars than in August, but the number of new passenger registrations was approximately equal to this year's monthly average. Turnover in retail trade was lower than a month before, despite higher borrowing; compared with September last year, it posted the greatest decline (by 17.8%) since data have been available (January 2001). However, the high optimism seen in September was only short-term, dropping to the level of August (10 points lower) as early as in October. Amid deteriorating economic prospects, the indicators of expectations for the next 12 months deteriorated the most (financial and economic situation, unemployment and major purchases in the next 12 months).7 The number of new passenger car registrations Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 6 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 7 Unlike the stated indices, the balance showing major purchases is not included in the confidence indicator. 40 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends 15 Figure 19: Household consumption indicators Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -----Consumer confdence indicator, original value (right axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) 30 20 e 10 3 Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. was more than 3% higher than in September, but 5.0% lower than in October last year. The value of the sentiment indicator declined in October for the first time since March, mainly due to the decline of the consumer confidence indicator. After falling in October, the value of the sentiment indicator was 15 points lower than what was recorded in the same month last year. Besides the consumer confidence indicator, the confidence indicator also dropped slightly in retail trade, while the indicator values remained unchanged in construction and services sectors; in manufacturing, the indicator was slightly higher. Figure 20: Business tendency ■ Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade Manufacturing Consumers Construction Labour market Employment continued to decline also in August. According to seasonally adjusted data, the total number of employed persons dropped by 2,168 (0.2%). Also in August, the number of employed persons dropped the most in manufacturing, while notable declines were also posted in financial and insurance services, education, transport, construction and hotels and restaurants. The number of employed persons dropped by 3.0% y-o-y, already being lower than two years before. The number of registered unemployed increased in September and October. At the end of October, the number of registered unemployed totalled 94.591, being 51.1% Table 3: Labour market indicators in % 2008 VIII 09/ VII 08 VIII 09/ VIII 08 I-VIII 09/ I-VIII 08 Labour force -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.6 Persons in formal employment 3.1 -0.3 -3.0 -1.6 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.1 -0.3 -3.6 -1.9 Registered unemployed 11.4 -0.4 45.2 30.4 Average nominal gross wage 8.3 -0.6 0.7 4.3 - private sector 7.8 -1.2 0.7 2.0 - public sector 9.8 0.8 -0.6 9.5 2008 VIII 09 VII 09 VIII 09 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 6.7 6.5 9.4 9.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,391.43 1,405.00 1,424.23 1,415.08 Private sector (in EUR) 1,315.49 1,301.57 132.66 1,310.16 Public sector (in EUR) 1,642.58 1,750.54 1,726.24 1,739.82 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 21: Components of registered unemployment New first-time job-seekers Lost work Unemployed persons who found work Other outflows from unemployment (net) -Change Source: SORS. 9 6 3 0 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2008 XII 08 VIIi 09 2008/ 2007 VIII09/ XII 08 VIII09/ VII 09 VIII 09/ VIII 08 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 39.7 38.8 37.9 -1.8 -2.2 0.0 -3.4 B Mining and quarrying 3.6 3.4 3.3 -5.2 -2.9 -0.4 -6.4 C Manufacturing 222.4 216.3 196.5 -0.5 -9.1 -0.6 -11.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.7 7.7 8.0 -1.1 2.8 0.6 3.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 8.8 9.0 9.1 4.7 1.9 0.0 2.7 F Constrution 87.9 89.5 86.9 12.2 -2.9 -0.3 -3.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 115.8 116.9 114.0 3.5 -2.4 -0.1 -1.2 H Transportation and storage 51.2 51.4 49.4 5.4 -4.0 -0.6 -4.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.8 34.3 34.1 1.7 -0.5 -0.5 1.2 J Information and communication 21.9 22.4 22.4 4.8 0.1 -0.4 2.3 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.6 24.3 4.2 -1.4 -1.3 -0.3 L Real estate activities 4.2 4.3 4.4 9.6 1.9 -0.6 3.7 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 42.8 44.4 45.1 7.1 1.5 1.1 4.8 N Administrative and support service activities 26 26.0 25.6 5.2 -1.7 0.6 -2.7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51 50.8 51.7 1.3 1.7 -0.1 1.3 P Education 60 61.0 60.4 1.5 -0.9 -0.5 3.3 Q Human health and social work activities 51 51.6 52.2 2.7 1.1 -0.1 2.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 13.8 14.0 14.1 6.5 0.4 0.0 2.2 S Other service activities 12.8 13.1 13.4 1.3 1.9 0.2 4.2 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services -producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.6 6.4 9.7 0.2 7.8 Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. higher than in October last year. The number of people who registered as unemployed increased in September compared to August due to the typical autumn inflow of first-time job-seekers who finished school and a higher number of persons losing jobs due to bankruptcy and Figure 22: Number of registered unemployed (seasonally adjusted data) Number of registered unemployed (left axis) - Q-o-q growth (right axis) 5 Ï or <3 0 termination of fixed-term contracts. In September, the outflow from unemployment was 2.7% lower than the inflow. As in the previous five months (since April), the number of unemployed persons who found jobs was higher y-o-y also in September. This increase is also due to a higher number of the unemployed persons Figure 23: Nominal gross wage per employee -Total \ Private sector Public sector \ \ /\ » / % f A w 1 * ^i i i \ i 1 ! ^ : \i QQQ Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. < ^ O < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 18 20 16 90 15 14 12 80 10 10 .!= 8 70 6 60 4 2 50 0 40 17 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends who became self-employed with the assistance of the Employment Service of Slovenia. In October, the number of unemployed increased by 6,255 (7.1%) compared to September, largely due to a high inflow of first-time job-seekers (up 300.9% from September) and a higher number of people who became unemployed after their companies went bankrupt (up 398.5% from September). Quarterly unemployment growth slowed slightly in the third quarter of 2009, but remained high. The average number of registered unemployed was 8.1% higher in the third quarter than in the second, according to seasonally adjusted data, having increased by 15.1% and 12.6%, respectively, in the first two quarters of the year. In the third quarter, the inflow into unemployment due to job loss dropped (by 2,600 persons), while the outflow from unemployment increased, as 2,328 more unemployed persons found work as in the previous quarter and 18.2% more were deleted from the unemployment register for reasons other than employment. However, the difference between this year and the same period last year is widening, given that in the third quarter of 2008, the number of unemployed increased by a mere 0.8% (seasonally adjusted). The average number of registered unemployed was thus 45.7% higher in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. The average wage per employee dropped in August, posting much faster growth in the public than in the private sector in the first eight months. The gross wage per employee dropped in nominal terms in August (-0.6%), and was already only 0.7% higher y-o-y; with prices remaining Box 3: Signing the Annex to the Collective Agreement for the public sector The foreseen wage growth arising from theadopted wage reform for the public sector represented a great risk thatmacroeconomic relationships will deteriorate in this period of economic crisis. In January this year, the second quarter of funds was disbursed according to the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector. The remaining two quarters were to be paid in September this year and in March 2010, with a safeguard mechanism postponing disbursement if real growth in public sector wages exceeded total labour productivity growth by more than 0.5 p.p. In February this year, the government and the trade unions managed to reach the Agreement on Measures Regarding Public Sector Salaries for the 2009-2010 Period due to the Changed Macroeconomic Situation and Annex I to the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector, according to which the third quarter was postponed to 1 January 2010 and the fourth to 1 March 2010 (in line with the incorporated safeguard clause). Moreover, it was agreed that there would be no regular wage adjustment in July this year and that regular performance bonuses would be abolished temporarily (from April until December this year). The movement of public sector wages is one of the main risks for economic movement next year, as these wages were to increase by a nominal 10.3% in 2010 under the wage policy agreement for the public sector adopted in February 2009, which would additionally jeopardise the public finance position. In the Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2009, IMAD reduced further its forecast of economic growth for this year and the next, given the deepening recession, citing the movement of public sector wages as one of the main risks. Amid the exceptionally deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, the Government reached with the trade unions a new Agreement on Measures Regarding Public Sector Salaries for the Period December 2009-November 2011 and Annex II to the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector. The payment of the remaining quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities was shifted to October 2010 and October 2011. Furthermore, only half of the inflation projected in the Spring Forecast of Economic Trends for 2010 (IMAD) will be taken into account in July's general adjustment in 2010 and the temporary abolishment of regular performance bonuses remains in place. How wages will be adjusted in July 2011 will be set by May 2010. Table 5: Comparison of the forecasts for the gross wage per employee October's agreement means a significantly lower growth in public sector wages in 2010 compared to that agreed upon in February. However, according to the estimate based on the agreement of October, wage growth will nevertheless be higher than what was expected in the Autumn Forecast on the basis of the initial negotiating position of the government and the Draft Budget Memorandum. 2008 2009 2010 Autumn forecast (Sept. 2009) Autumn forecast (Sept. 2009) Agreement October 09 Agreement February 09 Nominal growth, % Gross wage per employee 8.3 2.9 2.1 2.6 5.0 Private sector 7.8 0.8 2.4 Public sector 9.8 7.0 1.0 3.1 10.3 Labour productivity 4.5 -1.0 3.1 Real growth, % Gross wage per employee 2.5 1.9 0.6 1.1 3.4 Private sector 2.0 -0.2 0.9 Public sector 3.9 5.9 -0.5 1.5 8.7 Labour productivity 0.7 -5.0 2.5 Source: SORS, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 24: Nominal gross wage in the public sector -Industry and construction (B-F) -Services (G-N;S) Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. unchanged, the same figures were also posted for real wages. The gross wage increased by 4.3%, on average, in the first eight months relative to the same period last year; wage rises in the public sector were much faster than in the private sector. The minimum wage underwent regular adjustment in August. The number of minimum wage recipients was at the average of2008. The minimum wage is typically adjusted for the expected y-o-y price rises in August; it totalled EUR 597.43 after this year's increase (1.4%). Altogether, 21,056 persons received the minimum wage in August (half of them working in manufacturing and construction), which is at the level of the last year's average (-0.2%). In the private sector, the average wage per employee dropped in August in all activities except hotels and restaurants, Figure 25: Gross wages in the public sector -----Public administration -Education -Human health and social work act. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. posting significantly lower y-o-y growth (0.7%). In August, the starting-level and the lowest basic wages should have been adjusted by 2.3% according to the collective agreement in force, but were adjusted by a lower percentage or not at all, given the economic difficulties, while the 1.2% decline in the gross wage per employee is also attributable to the two fewer working days in that month. In the first eight months, the private sector gross wage increased by 2.0%, being mainly driven by wage rises in market services (2.3%), which were significantly higher than in industry and construction (0.7%).8 In the public sector, the average wage per employee increased in August; one year after the first disbursement of wages according to the new system, its y-o-y growth dropped significantly due to the base effect. The average gross wage in this sector was 0.8% higher9 compared to the previous month, but was 0.6% lower y-o-y due to the base effect. In the first eight months of the year, the gross wage in the public sector increased much faster (9.5%) than in the private sector. The highest growth was recorded in health and social work (18.1 %) and the lowest in education (5.0%).10 Prices Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in October, but remained unchanged from October last year. According to the first Eurostat data, y-o-y price growth was -0.1% in the euro area in October. Y-o-y consumer price growth has been hovering around 0.0% in recent months. While declining steadily up to June 2009 from its high levels of mid-2008, inflation turned negative in July and has been hovering around zero since then. The rapid decline of inflation in Slovenia and in the entire euro area up to July this year was under a significant influence of oil price movements on the world market, which was directly reflected in a high negative y-o-y contribution of prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating to inflation. The contribution of these fuels will have (assuming the present oil prices on the world market) a great impact on inflation dynamics, as it will turn positive in the coming months. Food prices also declined in a similar way in the period when oil prices were falling on the world market, which was to a lesser extent also reflected in retail sale. Oil and food price movements thus contributed -0.5 p.p. and -0.1 p.p. y-o-y, respectively, to -0.1% price growth in September. However, cost pressures from the international environment softened also as a result of lower prices of other commodities. 8In the first half of the year, industry and construction activities posted much lower y-o-y wage rises than market services, while wage rises in the last three months were fairly equal. Particularly in recreational, cultural and sporting activities (2.2%), followed by health and social work (1.4%) and public administration (1.0%), while it stagnated in education (-0.1%). 10In 2002-2006, education recorded much higher gross wage rises than other public sector activities, being the only activity in this sector that managed to negotiate wage supplements in this period. 19 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 6: Prices in % 2008 2009 XII 2008/ XII 2007 ® (I 08-XII 08)/ ® (I 06-XII 07) IX 09/ VII 09 IX 09/ IX 08 ® (X 08-IX 09)/ ® (X 06-IX 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 -0.2 -0.1 1.4 Goods 1.3 6.0 0.8 -1.1 0.6 - Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 0.4 -4.4 -4.8 - Other 3.2 5.0 0.9 -0.5 1.6 Services 3.8 5.0 -2.3 2.0 3.2 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 -0.1 0.0 1.3 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 0.1 -5.8 -5.4 - Energy -11.9 14.4 0.2 -11.1 -9.6 - Other 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 1.4 Core inflation - trimmean2 2.7 2.6 0.0 1.1 1.7 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 -0.2 0.9 2.7 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 0.0 -0.3 0.7 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market 3.1 5.6 0.3 -1.6 0.9 - EMU -0.1 2.1 0.6 -4.8 -2.4 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years.2The measure of core inflation ("Trimm mean") is optimised on monthly basis, hence some minor revisions of historical data are possible. The impact of weaker demand as a result of the economic crisis has become an increasingly important factor in consumer price movements over the last few months. The decline in foreign demand resulted in lower economic activity in Slovenia, which was reflected through slower wage rises and labour market adjustment (and consequent lower domestic demand) in the softening of price pressures also in other groups of products and services included the consumer price index. The slowest Figure 26: Group's contribution to y-o-y inflation change Liquid fuels -Inflation -Inflation (y-o-y, %) F r e c a s t decline is, as expected, recorded for price growth in most services, which totalled 2.0% y-o-y in Slovenia. Y-o-y deflation was therefore 0.6 p.p. lower. Growth in services prices is also slowing throughout the euro area, where it dropped to 1.8% in September, from a relatively high level of August last year (2.7%). The negative growth of the producer prices of manufactured goods shows signs of moderation. While in the previous period of favourable economic trends, the movements Figure 27: Breakdown of y-o-y inflation S 3 c 0 'S 2 -Q 1 1 U 0 -1 Liquid fuels Food Other Services a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 i 2 o 0 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends of the domestic producer prices of manufactured goods for sale on the domestic market were mainly under the influence of rising commodity prices in the international environment (particularly food, oil and metal prices), commodity price declines contributed (as did consumer price declines) to slower producer price growth in the period of the crisis. Specifically, in the time of economic boom, prices rose fastest in the manufacture of food and beverages and in the manufacture of metals and metal products. However, during the economic crisis their growth slowed, turning negative this year, which had a crucial impact on the measured deflation in producer prices as a whole, which totalled -1.6% in September (-3.2% in manufacturing). Data for the last few months show that negative price growth in the manufacture of food and beverages and in the manufacture of metals and metal products is slowing; price rises in other index groups also continue to slow. The movement of the producer prices of imported manufactured goods in the last two years was also primarily impacted by commodity prices in the international environment. In recent months, the negative y-o-y growth of imported goods started to slow. Figure 28: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members I Total (17 trading partners) - Outside euro area Outside EU - Euro area EU outside euro area 170 160 150 o o 140 IT o 130 o rN £ 120 C 110 100 90 80 «Nidiiiift Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Price rises in business services are slowing. In recent years, the movement of prices in business services was, by our estimate, more a consequence of cyclical economic activity than cost shocks from the international environment. The relatively weak economic activity during the economic crisis contributed to a slowdown of the prices rises in business services, which declined from a relatively high level in the last quarter of 2007 (5.0%) to 0.3% in the second quarter this year (the latest figure). After the deterioration in the period from December to June, the price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy improved in July and August. The real effective exchange rate as measured by relative consumer prices dropped at the monthly level (by 0.2%), after having strengthened somewhat in the period from December 2008 to June 2009. Given the similar dynamics last year, it was only slightly higher than a year before in August and in the first eight months as a whole (by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively). The relatively stable price competitiveness movements of this year are due to consumer price growth stabilising at similar levels as in Slovenia's trading partners, while the nominal effective exchange rate was relatively stable as well. At the aggregate level, this year's greater fluctuations of the euro had little influence on the price competitiveness of the economy. Specifically, the share of Slovenia's foreign trade with its trading partners from the euro area, where the common currency eliminates any exchange rate risk, is the highest.11 Since the second quarter, the impacts of the appreciation of the euro against some currencies outside the EU (particularly against the USD and JPY) have been offset in great part by the effects of its depreciation against EU currencies (particularly the PLN, HUF, CZK and GBP) and a consequent improvement in price competitiveness against Slovenia's EU trading partners outside the euro area (see International Environment). Movements in the period to the second quarter were just the opposite. Balance of payments In August, the balance of payments recorded the highest merchandise trade deficit this year, and the current account balance turned into a deficit after for four months of surplus. With a higher drop of merchandise exports than imports, the deficit in merchandise trade increased (EUR 133.5 m). The deficit increase in August may also be partly seasonal in nature, which is also characteristic of previous years. Even though the merchandise deficit of August is the highest this year, it is still well below that recorded last year, as is the cumulative deficit for the period from January to August (EUR 245.3); in the same period last year, the merchandise deficit totalled EUR 1,717.6 m and was also the main contributor to the current account deficit. The August flows of other balances did not deviate much from those recorded in previous months. The factor income balance recorded a similar deficit in August as in July. The deficit in the factor income balance has been narrowing steadily since the first quarter of 2009, when it was highest this year. Its decline was mainly due to net interest payments on foreign loans, which are declining more notably than net interest receipts from investment in debt securities. In the first quarter, the balance of current transfers also recorded the greatest deficit this 11 In the narrower group of 17 trading partners, included in the calculation of the effective exchange rate, the share of Slovenia's trading partners from the euro area totals around 64%, the share of EU trading partners outside the euro area around 14%, and the share of non-EU trading partners 13%. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 21 Current Economic Trends Table 7: Balance of payments I-VIII 09, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VIII 08 Current account 14,485.8 14,486.3 -0.5 -1,414.8 - Trade balance (FOB) 10,493.8 10,739.1 -245.3 -1,717.6 - Services 2,848.6 2,011.6 837.0 1,099.0 - Income 663.8 1,123.3 -459.5 -672.8 Current transfers 479.7 612.3 -132.6 -123.5 Capital and financial account -114.0 -12.0 -126.0 1,773.6 - Capital account 148.4 -118.2 30.2 -12.2 - Capital transfers 147.4 -112.1 35.3 -10.4 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.0 -6.1 -5.1 -1.8 - Financial account -262.4 106.2 -156.2 1,785.8 - Direct investment -8.2 -457.3 -465.5 148.6 - Portfolio investment 2,766.8 29.7 2,796.5 -919.8 - Financial derivates -29.1 13.1 -16.0 38.1 - Other investment -3,127.3 520.7 -2,606.6 2,489.3 - Assets 0.0 520.7 520.7 -1,132.7 - Liabilities -3,127.3 0.0 -3,127.3 3,622.0 -Reserve assets 135.4 0.0 135.4 29.7 Net errors and omissions 126.4 0.0 126.4 -358.7 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. year, particularly due to the general government sector. The cumulative balance of current transfers was positive from April to July, due to the surplus of the state budget against the EU budget. August saw a net outflow of funds from the state budget to the EU budget, which reduced the August balance of current transfers relative to July. In the first eight months of this year, the deficit in current transfers was almost at the same level as in the same period last year. The services balance also ran a surplus in August, the widest this year due to a seasonal increase in trade in travel services. At the y-o-y level, the services balance posted lower y-o-y surpluses than last year in August and in the first eight months of this year, mainly due to a smaller surplus in trade in travel and road transport services, which is closely related to the dynamics of merchandise trade. The decline in foreign demand and lower domestic activity are also reflected in changed flows of merchandise trade by purpose. As a result of shrinking investment activity and Figure 29: Components of the current account balance I Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account Services balance Current transfers Figure 30: Components of merchandise trade balance Intermediate goods ^^M Capital goods Consumption goods -Balance of merchandise trade 200 Source: BS. < ^ O < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 22 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends energy and commodity price drops, the trade deficits in investment goods and intermediate goods have already posted most notable y-o-y declines since the beginning of this year, with imports of these goods dropping much more than exports. Slovenia still runs a surplus in consumer goods trade, which has even widened somewhat during the economic crisis, mainly due to a pronounced y-o-y decline in passenger car imports (by 44.8% in the first seven months of this year). The net capital flow of international financial transactions (excluding monetary reserves) in August was among the lowest this year, being also much lower than last year in the first eight months as a whole. The net capital outflow totalled EUR 10.5 m in August (a net inflow of EUR 83.7 m in August last year). It was underpinned by the net outflow of the capital of the BS, due to increased investment in foreign debt securities and a decline in liabilities to the TARGET system.12 This net capital outflow was higher than the net capital inflow of the general government, due to increased foreign investment in general government debt securities and a higher net capital inflow of the private sector as a result of direct and other investments. International financial transactions (excluding monetary reserves) posted a net capital outflow of EUR 291.6 m in the first eight months of this year (a net inflow of EUR 1,756.1 m in the same period last year). In August, the highest financial transaction flows were recorded for assets and liabilities of commercial banks. Direct investment saw net inflows in the amount of EUR 60.6 m in August, while having posted net outflows in most of the previous months. This was a result of net indebtedness of domestic companies to foreign affiliated companies, while equity capital flows were modest. Figure 31: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector Government ^^B BS H Private sector-Net financial flow 1200 900 600 -900 -1200 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 12 Real-time gross settlement system by the Eurosystem, used for the settlement of central bank operations, large-value interbank funds transfers as well as other euro payments. Portfolio investment posted net outflows in the amount of EUR 111.6 m. The banking sector increased investment in bonds, notes and money market instruments. The net investment of non-residents in general government debt securities increased as well. January, February, April and July saw high net inflows of portfolio investment, due to the sale of the money market instruments of commercial banks, the issuance of two government bonds and a state-guaranteed NLB bond. Other investment saw a modest net inflow of EUR 32.2 m, but recorded high financial flows on the side of assets and liabilities. On the side of assets, the greatest decline was posted for deposits of domestic commercial banks in banks abroad, given that they transferred part of tied assets (EUR 647.9 m) from July's issuance of the NLB bond from accounts abroad. Regarding liabilities, the highest outflow was recorded for non-resident deposits in Slovenian banks (EUR 319.1 m), while the BS repaid part of its liabilities to the net position of the TARGET account for the second month in a row. The general government increased its debt this year due by issuing bonds, while the private sector, particularly domestic commercial banks, made net repayments of the debt that had increased in previous years. Net general government borrowing increased this year to finance increased general government consumption and the measures adopted to stimulate lending activity. General government gross external debt rose by EUR 1,469 m from the end of 2008, while gross external assets in debt instruments declined by a mere EUR 81 m. The net external debt of the private sector diminished in this period. The greatest decline was posted for the external debt of commercial banks (EUR 1,333 m), while their gross assets declined by EUR 528 m. Financial markets Lending activity also remained modest in September. Slovenian banks recorded net lending in the amount of EUR 82.1 m in September. Household borrowing accounted for by far the greatest share, but government borrowing increased as well. Enterprises and NFI, in contrast, posted the highest monthly net repayment of loans raised at domestic banks so far. Sources of finance on international interbank markets remain fairly limited and banks continue to repay loans taken out abroad. The volume of government bank deposits strengthened again in September, as the government raised EUR 1.5 bn in loans, depositing nearly two thirds of them in banks. Inflows of household deposits to banks are increasingly modest. The monthly increase in the total volume of domestic bank loans to domestic sectors has not exceeded 1.0% since October last year, while it dropped below 5.0% y-o-y in September. In the first three quarters of 2009, banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 878.6 m, only slightly more than a fifth of what was recorded in the comparable period of 2008. After being negative in July and August, the net 23 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 08 30. IX 08 30. IX 09/ 31. VIII 09 30. IX 09/ 31. XII 08 30. IX 09/ 30. IX 08 Loans total 31,549.10 32,427.72 0.3 2.8 4.7 Enterprises and NFI 23,137.53 23,378.77 -0.3 1.0 2.7 Government 584.61 818.35 8.3 40.0 57.8 Households 7,826.96 8,230.60 1.2 5.2 6.8 Consumer credits 2,883.95 2,895.89 0.7 0.4 -0.3 Lending for house purchase 3,395.30 3,752.88 1.6 10.5 15.9 Other lending 1,547.71 1,581.82 1.1 2.2 1.2 Bank deposits total 13,689.07 14,127.29 0.0 3.2 4.7 Overnight deposits 5,249.44 5,623.43 -0.1 7.1 3.8 Short-term deposits 5,644.79 5,358.67 -1.0 -5.1 -1.8 Long-term deposits 1,957.65 2,574.87 1.3 31.5 48.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 837.19 570.31 5.5 -31.9 -35.3 Mutual funds 1,513.38 1,807.06 3.3 19.4 -14.0 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. flow of loans in the euro area strengthened in September, rising to EUR 30.2 bn. The y-o-y growth rate of total loans nonetheless declined by another 0.7 p.p. and was negative for the first time (-0.4%). Corporate and NFI borrowing, in particular, recorded a major change. After repaying loans in a net amount of more than EUR 100 bn in the previous two months, enterprises and NFI borrowed a net EUR 24.6 bn in September, which is the second highest figure this year, reaching close to 60% of the monthly average in 2008. Despite a relatively favourable September, the general picture shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the slowdown of the lending activity in the euro area was even more pronounced than in Slovenia. The total net flow of loans was negative, posting less than EUR Figure 32: Net flows and growth of loans in the euro I Government I Households Enterprises & NFI (right axis) Enterprises & NFI - Households (right axis) - Total (right axis) 20 150 100 J 50 cc 3 0 -50 -100 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 bn, while enterprises repaid their loans in a net amount of EUR 42.6 bn. The volume of net household borrowing was also relatively high in September, at EUR 95.1 m, reaching the second highest level this year. Housing loans continue to account for the greatest share, with net flows hovering between EUR 50 m and EUR 60 m for the third month in a row. A significant upswing was also posted by net borrowing in the form of consumer loans, which was at EUR 18.7 m in September, the highest figure this year. In the first three quarters of 2009, banks recorded lending to households in the amount of EUR 403.6 m, close to 45 % of the figure from the comparable period of 2008. The decline is a result of a halt in bank lending in the form of foreign currency loans, which were repaid by households in a net amount of EUR 147.7 m in the first three quarters this year (in the same period last year, net flows totalled EUR 340 m). Part of the demand for these loans was thus most probably redirected to euro loans, given that in the first three quarters of this year, net flows of euro loans were slightly higher than in the comparable period last year. Following two successive months of positive net corporate and NFI borrowing, enterprises and NFI net repaid loans again in September, this time in an amount of EUR 76.0 m, the highest thus far. This is the sole result of net repayment of working capital loans, which was at EUR 116.6 m, while net borrowing for investment totalled almost EUR 30 m and borrowing for other purposes slightly over EUR 10 m, both values exceeding this year's monthly average. Up to September, the guarantee scheme for enterprises had not contributed to any major increase in financing the economy yet. This can most probably be explained by banks being more cautious when granting loans, given the global economic crisis, but we also estimate that there 250 200 16 150 -12 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends was a quality shift in demand. Specifically, enterprises are in dire need of financial resources to bridge liquidity problems. Given that these loans are normally not intended for financing development projects, which create new cash flow, banks are all the more cautious when granting this type of loans, requiring higher collateral and particularly higher interest rates to accommodate the additional risk, and thus deterring many a potential borrower from obtaining a loan. Enterprises and NFI thus borrowed a net EUR 241.2 m from domestic banks in the first three quarters of the year, a mere 7.1 % of the volume in the comparable period last year. Figure 33: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises&NFI (right axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Households (right axis) Total (right axis) 40 35 25 20 4 3 o 15 m o 10 ^ 5 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In August, enterprises and NFI repaid foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 30.0 m. Long-term as well as short-term loans posted negative net flows. Given the strong net borrowing in the same month of last year (EUR 112.2 m), the relationships changed significantly as well. The volume of net loans thus totalled EUR 257.6 m in the first eight months of this year and was already almost two fifths lower than in the same period last year. This strong decline is largely a consequence of a sizeable net repayment of short-term loans (EUR 85.6 m), while borrowing in the form of long-term loans is still slightly above what was recorded in the comparable period last year, but the growth rate slowed notably over the last three months. The share of foreign financing thus dropped to 45.0% in August and was more than 5 p.p. lower than a month earlier. The interest rates for corporate and NFI borrowing are significantly higher in Slovenia than the euro area average, hovering at 290 basis points in August,13 according to the Bank of Slovenia. In August, banks thus made net repayments of long-term as well as short-term loans taken out abroad. However, both posted Figure 34: Net bank borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates ^^M Loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) I 60 lmi Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. fairly modest net outflows, EUR 38.9 m in total, only one seventh of the monthly average in the first eight months of this year. In this period, banks repaid a net EUR 2.1 bn of loans, while the net inflow still posted EUR 2 bn in the same period last year. The growth rate of household deposits in banks also continued to decline in September. It fell below 5% y-o-y for the first time since comparable data have been available,14 while it was still at approximately 10% as recently as at the beginning of the year. This low growth was in large part due to the decline in short-term deposits (some of which were also moved to long-term deposits) and deposits redeemable at notice. The latter increased by a full 5.5% at the monthly level in September, but were still more than 35% lower than what was recorded in September last year. Net inflows of household deposits in banks thus totalled EUR 438.2 m in the first three quarters of this year, down by as much as one half from the comparable period last year. There were several reasons for this strong decline. One is certainly the decline of household receipts. Another is a prominent drop in interest rates on deposits, while the third reason might lie in movements on capital markets. Inflows from capital markets, where the values of assets recorded a significant decline, accounted for an important share of inflows to bank deposits last year, while this year the effect of these inflows is just the opposite due to positive movements. In September, the government strengthened the volume of bank deposits again, with bond proceeds accounting for a significant portion of deposited funds. The volume of government bank deposits thus exceeded EUR 4 bn by the end of the month and was by a factor of 1.5 higher than at the end of the previous year. At the monthly level, net flows reached EUR 958.6 m. This time, the government 13 Interest rates for loans above EUR 1 m with a variable or up to 1 year with a fixed interest rate. 4 Since 2005. 184 90 30 0 50 0 30 0 25 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends deposited a significant portion of its deposits short-term, as the volume of short-term deposits increased by more than EUR 730 m, and the volume of long-term deposits only by slightly more than EUR 200 m. For the third month in a row, mutual funds of domestic administrators recorded a positive net flow in September, which was, at EUR 5.9 m, at the highest monthly level this year. This movement is in great part attributable to favourable movements on capital markets, as the bulk of net inflows came from stock mutual funds. Mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded a modest positive net flow in the first three quarters this year (EUR 1.2 m), while the same period last year saw a net outflow of EUR 188.1 m. The volume of assets in mutual funds increased for the third month in a row, this time by more than 3%, having strengthened by close to one fifth since the end of the previous year. Figure 35: Net inflows of household deposits in banks Figure 36: Movement of the SBI20 and other main indices FTSE -DOW -DAX -SBI20 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Posting record highs in August, the turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange slowed once again in September and was roughly the same (EUR 67.5 m) as the average turnover recorded in previous months. Also this time, the bulk came from the turnover in shares, while the turnover in bonds (EUR 13.7 m) recorded its highest value in the last six months. In September, the market capitalisation of securities listed on the Ljubljana stock exchange recorded its first monthly increase (by a full 9.0%) in the third quarter. Once again, the increase was primarily underpinned by a 16.3% increase in the market capitalisation of bonds coming from the issuance of new government bonds at the beginning of September, while the increase in the market capitalisation of shares was moderate, at 1.7%. The value of the SBI20 index rose in October for the second month in a row, despite significantly negative movements in the second half of the month, but its growth was, at 1.9%, nearly half lower than a month before. On the other hand, on international capital markets there was a break in the string of consecutive monthly increases recorded Source: Finance.yahoo.com, www.mscibarra.com, Lbo. in the entire third quarter of the year. In October, the MSCI World index, measured in euros, thus recorded a 2.8% decline. Among the main indices, stagnation was only reported for the main index of the New York Stock Exchange, while other indices declined in the range between 1.0% and 5.0%. Public finance In the first nine months of this year, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 7.6% relative to the same period last year. According to the data on paid taxes and social security contributions,15 payments totalled EUR 9.7 bn. The slowdown of general government revenue growth continued for most categories of taxes and contributions. Only revenues from excise duties and social security contributions increased y-o-y in the first nine months of the year (15.8 % and 2.1 %, respectively), while all other taxes declined. The government continued to implement the policy of raising duties on all excise products (thereby increasing revenue from excised duties), but in August and September, their growth was somewhat slower. Social security contributions follow the wage bill dynamics, but their growth is slowing as well. Revenue from personal income tax declined by 4.0% y-o-y in the first nine months, largely due to higher tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments for 2008, as well as significantly lower inflows from taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits and income from capital gains. Growth in revenue from tax on income from employment is slowing as well (3.6% y-o-y growth). Prepayments of corporate income tax declined further in September relative to August, reaching only slightly more than half of the 2008 value in the first nine months, 15 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-September 2009, Public Payments Administration. 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 4: Main aggregates of the general government sector (ESA 95) According to the revised SORS data, the general government deficit totalled 1.8% of GDP in 2008, having deteriorated notably relative to 2007, when the balance was almost level. SORS published revised data on the main aggregates of the general government for 2005-2008. The main corrections pertain to the revision of the assessed corporate income taxes for 2007 and 2008, while for 2008 new estimates were made for expenditure on gross fixed capital formation and deficits of public agencies, funds and public institutions. In the revision, four new units were included in the general government sector: Radio and TV Slovenia, Dwelling Fund Slovenia, Consultancy and Management Corporation (CMC) and CMC Real Estate. According to the revised data, the deficit for 2008 is 0.9 p.p. higher than before the revision: as the share of revenue in GDP remained unchanged compared with the year before, the total recorded deficit reflects the higher share of total general government expenditure. The revision annulled the previously reported surplus for 2007 amounting to 0.5% of GDP. In 2008, the general government deficit was mainly generated at the central government level (EUR 461 m), and partly also at the level of local governments (EUR 213 m). The social security funds recorded a minimum surplus. The deficit at the local government level (municipalities) increased, in particular, compared with previous years and was the highest since 2000. According to the Ministry of Finance, the general government deficit (according to the ESA-95 methodology) for 2009 will be estimated at 5.9% of GDP and consolidated general government debt at 34.2% of GDP. In 2008, general government revenue increased by a nominal 7.4% to EUR 15.8 bn (42.4% of GDP). Among the main categories, social security contributions increased the most in 2008 (10.3%), while taxes on income and wealth and taxes on production and exports were increasing at a significantly slower pace (5.2% and 3.5%, respectively). General government expenditure increased by 12.0% in 2008, to EUR 16.4 bn (44.2% of GDP). Expenditure on goods and services and the compensation of employees increased more than total expenditure (by 15.5% and 12.9%, respectively), while increases in expenditure on investment (10.5%) and expenditure on social benefits in cash and in kind (10.1%) were slower. After the revision, the consolidated general government debt at the end of 2008 is estimated at 22.5% of GDP (EUR 8,337 m), which is 0.3 p.p. of GDP less than according to the initial estimate, which is due to the inclusion of four new units in the general government sector (which posted surpluses at the end of2008).1 General government debt declined by 0.8 p.p. of GDP relative to the end of 2007, and by 4.5 p.p. relative to the end of 2005. This debt was mainly generated at the central government level and to a lesser degree at the level of local government units. Central government debt declined in 2008, while local government debt increased. Table 9: General government sector revenue, expenditure and deficit, in % of GDP 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total general government revenue 43.0 43.6 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.8 43.2 42.4 42.4 Total general government expenditure 46.7 47.6 46.3 46.4 45.8 45.2 44.5 42.4 44.2 General government debt 26.8 27.4 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 23.3 22.5 Deficit - net borrowing (-) -3.7 -4.0 -2.5 -2.7 -2.2 -1.4 -1.3 0.0 -1.8 Of which: Central government -3.2 -3.7 -2.1 -2.5 -2.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.1 -1.2 Local government 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 Social security funds -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 Source: SORS, Main aggregates of the general government, 2000-2005, for 2000-2004, Non-financial sector accounts; calculations by IMAD, ESA-95. methodology 1 Radio and TV Slovenia, Dwelling Fund Slovenia, Consultancy and Management Corporation (CMC) and CMC Real Estate. as taxpayers can request a prepayment reduction based on deteriorated current business performance and this year's lower statutory tax rate (21.0 %). Revenue from value-added tax was almost 10.8 % lower in the first nine months of the year, following the economic activity decline amid other problems regarding the timing of tax payments and tax refunds. According to non-consolidated data for August, state budget revenue declined by 13.4% y-o-y in the first eight months, while state budget expenditure increased by 12.2% in the same period. The state government deficit climbed to EUR 1,031 m in the first eight months. The health fund also posted a deficit (EUR 79.9 m) at the end of the first eight months, given that revenue increased by 4.3 % and expenditure by as much as 15.8 %. With the transfer from the state budget in the amount of EUR 960 m, the pension fund was more or less balanced at the end of the first eight months of the year; revenue and expenditure rose by 7.8 % and 7.7 %, respectively. The total balance of local government budgets was negative in the first seven months. Local government budgets 27 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 10: Drawing of cohesion policy funds according to the financial perspective for 2007-2013 (as at 30 September 2009) In EUR m % with regard to eligibility 07-09 OP ETID* OP SRDP* OP HRD* OP*, total OP ETID* OP SRDP* OP HRD* OP*, total Eligibility 2007-2009 434.0 869.7 362.0 1,665.7 Confirmed operations 304.4 886.4 325.5 1,516.2 70.1 101.9 89.9 91.0 Signed contracts 117.9 707.2 321.7 1,146.8 27.2 81.3 88.9 68.8 Executed payments 90.6 250.8 44.5 385.9 20.9 28.8 12.3 23.2 Submitted expense claims 81.3 143.0 8.0 232.3 18.7 16.4 2.2 13.9 Certified expense claims 79.7 9.2 3.2 92.1 18.4 1.1 0.9 5.5 Source: Slovenian Government Office for Local Self-Government and Regional Policy; calculations by IMAD. Note: *OP ETID - Operational programme of environmental and transport infrastructure development, OP SRDP - Operational programme for strengthening regional development potentials, OP HRD - operational programme for human resource development. Figure 37: Taxes and social security contributions ---------Taxes on income and profit -Social security contributions -Domestic taxes on goods and services —•— Other taxes - Taxes and social security contributions -total 50 40 es g ar er 30 a 20 g ni iv 10 o m h 0 tn o m- -10 m -C -20 < or rg -30 y- -o- -40 -50 r / \ / \ -N, \ \ -V: \ j Source: Public Payments Administration; calculations by IMAD. Figure 38: Planned and absorbed EU funds Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion policy Internal policies Pre-accession EU funds I Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 I Funds planned by the state budget for 2008 I Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Sep) Total funds received in 2008 (Jan-Dec) 200 300 400 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 500 posted a deficit of slightly above EUR 50 m, with revenues increasing by 3.8 % and expenditures by13.6% y-o-y. The absorption of Cohesion Policy funds according to the financial perspective for 2007-13 accelerated in the third quarter, but refunds into the state budget remained low. According to the data from the Slovenian Government Office for Local Self-Government and Regional Policy (GOLR)16 according to operational programmes, the measures adopted at the EU and national levels17, to enhance cohesion policy funds absorption mainly contributed to improvements in procedures for approving operations and projects and signing contracts. The actual payments of cohesion policy funds according to the new financial perspective increased as well, but they still account for a very low percentage of the funds Slovenia is entitled to utilise in the 2007-2009 period 16 According to GOLR, which conducts in-depth monitoring of the allocation and use of cohesion policy funds, which account for the bulk of funds Slovenia receives from the EU budget. The Ministry of Finance, however, includes data on the actual refunds into the state budget (see Economic Issues 2009). 17 See SEM, April 2009. as a whole. The submitted claims for refunds from the EU budget increasingly follow the actual payments, even if there are still significant lags that should be eliminated as soon as possible. Certified refund claims and actual refunds into the state budget remain very low, particularly in the operational programmes for strengthening regional development potentials (RD) and human resource development (HRD). The reason may lie in administrative barriers,18 which should be eliminated as soon as possible. In September, refunds from the EU budget into the state budget were somewhat lower than in August. Receipts from the European Regional Development Fund accounted for the bulk of refunds (more than 50%), while refunds from the Cohesion Fund and refunds under the Common Agricultural Policy were somewhat lower. Given that the receipts from the EU budget to the state budget were again much lower than the payments of Slovenia's obligations against the EU budget, the net surplus dropped to a mere EUR 1.3 m in the January-September period. 18 See Economic Issues 2009. selected topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 31 Selected Topics Effects of the new wage system on wages and individual wage-forming components by public sector activity The new wage system has already resulted in a significant increase in the average gross earnings per employee in the public sector after the disbursement of the first two quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities. We made a detailed analysis of increases according to activities and certain wage-forming components on the basis of statistical data for the January-July 2009 period in comparison with the same period in 2008. The reason why it is appropriate to compare these two seven-month periods is that the changes in the wage calculation brought about by the new wage system, which was introduced in August 2008, impacted the level of wages in the first seven months this year, while there was no such effect in the same period of last year. The statistical data give insight into the structure of earnings according to the share of earnings without overtime work and without payments in arrears, the share of earnings for overtime work and the share for payments in arrears (which also include extraordinary payments). An analysis of the seven-month period shows deviations from the preliminary estimates of the effects that the introduction of the new wage system will have on earnings. Before signing the collective agreement for the public sector and sectoral collective agreements, the Ministry of Public Administration estimated the financial consequences of the new system, anticipating the highest wage rises in health and social work (particularly to eliminate disparities in the earnings of nurses), followed by arts, entertainment and recreation, and by other activities. An analysis of statistical data shows that after the elimination of all wage disparities, the actual wage growth would be much higher than estimated, with a great increase in public sector wages not only as a result of movements across wage brackets and promotions, but also of the increase in other wage-forming components. Specifically, the data show a significant increase in gross earnings for overtime work and payments in arrears, which mainly include extraordinary payments (for example a supplement for increased workload). The average gross wage in the public sector was 11.1% higher y-o-y in the first seven months this year, which was mainly due to the 23.4% increase in health activities. Wage rises were significantly lower in residential care (14.2%) and social work activities without accommodation (17.0%), but still higher than wage rises in public administration (9.8%) and significantly higher than in education (6.0%) and arts, entertainment and education (6.3%). Gross earnings per hour increased more than gross earnings per overtime hour. In the public sector, gross earnings per overtime hour increased by 63.3%, but the increases varied significantly according to activity. The greatest increase, by nearly 80%, was recorded in health and social work. Within that, gross earnings per overtime hour increased most notably in hospital activity (by 94.5%). In social work, the value of overtime work declined significantly in residential care activities for people with mental retardation (-56.5%), while it increased in other areas of social work. In public administration, gross earning for overtime work increased by nearly 33%, in arts, entertainment and recreation by slightly more than 14%, while they dropped by around 12% in education, though solely due to a significant decline in the value of overtime work in higher education (were these activities excluded, the increase would total around 30%). Amid this exceptional increase in gross earnings per overtime hour, the share of paid overtime hours in total paid hours declined somewhat this year (from 2.2% last year to 2.0% this year). The share of overtime payment recipients declined as well. The workload in public administration declined y-o-y in the first seven months this year, given that last year the volume of work was significantly higher due to the Slovenian presidency of the EU. With few exceptions, other activities also posted a decline in the share of overtime hours in total hours and overtime payment recipients this year. A significant increase was thus recorded for the share of overtime hours in total paid hours and the share of overtime payment recipients in residential care activities for people with mental retardation (i.e. where the value of overtime work posted a significant decline). Both shares also increased in mental and dental practice activities, which are health activities; in hospital activities, the share of overtime hours in total paid hours declined, while the share of overtime payment recipients increased. In arts, entertainment and recreations activities, the share of overtime hours in total paid hours and overtime payment recipients increased in artistic creation and museums. The share of funds for overtime payments increased the most in health activities. Even though the share of paid overtime hours in total hours and the share of overtime payment recipients declined, the share of funds for overtime payments in the structure of gross earnings increased to 3.2% (from 2.4% last year). Looking at the total structure of funds for gross earnings, the share for these payments increased the most in health activities (from 8.8% in 2008 to 11.6%), but it also rose in public administration. In other activities and in social work, the share of funds for overtime payments declined, most notably in education. Gross earnings for payments in arrears, which do not represent a great share in the structure of gross earnings (0.14% in the period of January-July last year), have increased significantly this year, to 0.38%, by more than by a factor of 1.5. Payments in arrears also include extraordinary payments, such as the supplement for increased workload that is paid in arrears. The changes are mainly due to the fact that the new wage system introduced a supplement for increased workload , which had previously only been used in public administration. Among individual activities, the share of payments in arrears increased Table 11: Structure of gross earnings in the public sector for the January-July 2009 period compared with the January-July 2008 period Share of Share of funds funds Average gross earnings per employee Jan-lul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Average gross earnings per paid hour, total Jan-lul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Average gross earnings per overtime hour Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Share of overtime hours in total hours Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Share of overtime payment recipients Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Average gross payments in arrears per recipient Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 Share of recipients of payments in arrears Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 for gross earnings for overtime work in total funds Jan-lul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 for gross earnings for payments in arrears in total funds Jan-Jul 09/ Jan-Jul 08 for gross for gross SCA jan-jul earn inas earn inas 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 Total public sector 1,752 1,577 11.1 10.4 9.3 12.0 16.5 10.1 63.3 2.0 2.2 -9.5 14.7 15.7 -5.9 56.4 108.9 -48.2 11.7 2.1 462.9 3.2 2.4 32.0 0.4 0.1 162.6 084 Public administration 1,791 1,631 9.8 10.6 9.6 10.6 12.7 9.6 32.8 1.2 1.3 -9.2 16.5 17.6 -6.1 21.6 36.2 -40.2 4.3 0.8 456.0 1.4 1.3 9.1 0.1 0.0 202.9 084.1 Administration of the State 1,862 1,712 8.7 11.1 10.2 9.2 13.0 10.5 24.1 0.6 0.6 -12.9 7.8 8.7 -10.5 20.7 35.0 -40.8 7.2 1.3 455.1 0.6 0.7 -1.1 0.1 0.0 202.1 084.2 Provision of services to the community as a whole 1,727 1,556 11.0 10.2 9.1 11.9 12.6 9.2 36.5 1.9 2.0 -7.0 25.7 26.7 -3.7 25.1 59.4 -57.7 1.9 0.1 2195.2 2.3 2.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 773.6 084.3 Compulsory social sec. act. 1,741 1,594 9.2 10.4 9.5 9.9 13.0 11.9 9.0 0.3 0.6 -55.0 3.3 7.0 -53.1 34.5 -100.0 0.0 3.7 -100.0 0.3 0.7 -55.4 0.0 0.1 -100.0 P85 Education 1,721 1,624 6.0 10.4 9.8 6.4 12.6 14.4 -12.2 0.3 0.4 -14.3 3.5 5.0 -29.8 35.6 65.7 -45.8 16.8 2.9 483.9 0.4 0.5 -29.3 0.3 0.1 198.5 P85.1 Pre-primary education 1,349 1,264 6.7 8.1 7.6 7.0 11.5 6.9 66.6 0.1 0.1 -11.6 1.4 1.5 -5.3 29.5 32.9 -10.4 12.6 2.2 470.2 0.1 0.1 37.7 0.3 0.1 378.6 P85.2 Primary education 1,721 1,619 6.3 10.4 9.7 6.7 9.3 7.0 32.0 0.2 0.2 -30.3 2.3 4.2 -43.9 22.9 38.8 -41.0 19.4 1.8 1003.2 0.1 0.2 -13.8 0.3 0.0 512.6 P85.3 Secondary education 1,867 1,775 5.2 11.4 10.8 5.5 12.6 10.6 18.5 0.2 0.3 -33.5 2.7 3.9 -30.0 29.6 61.3 -51.6 19.2 2.2 768.4 0.2 0.3 -25.3 0.3 0.1 299.4 P85.4 Higher education 2,196 2,064 6.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 14.3 20.7 -30.9 1.4 1.4 -0.7 11.9 15.2 -21.8 30.9 29.1 6.0 9.8 6.8 43.8 1.5 2.3 -36.3 0.1 0.1 43.3 Q Human health and social work a 1,758 1,452 21.1 10.1 8.2 23.0 17.9 10.0 79.1 5.2 5.7 -8.9 29.4 29.6 -0.4 82.0 93.9 -12.7 13.9 0.9 1429.2 9.3 7.0 32.6 0.6 0.1 1,002.5 Q86 Human health activities 1,968 1,594 23.4 11.1 8.8 26.0 18.2 10.0 81.5 7.1 7.7 -8.3 39.7 39.3 1.0 93.8 158.7 -40.9 13.9 0.6 2345.5 11.6 8.8 32.2 0.7 0.1 1,070.8 Q86.1 Hospital activities 1,999 1,595 25.4 11.0 8.6 28.7 18.2 9.4 94.5 8.3 9.5 -12.9 43.6 43.0 1.4 56.9 215.5 -73.6 14.9 0.2 6729.5 13.7 10.4 31.7 0.4 0.0 1,338.4 Q86.2 Medical and dental practice a. 1,947 1,609 21.1 11.2 9.2 22.2 18.3 12.6 45.2 5.1 4.5 14.0 33.8 33.1 2.0 176.2 93.7 88.1 12.2 1.2 936.4 8.4 6.2 35.5 1.1 0.1 1,510.6 Q86.9 Other human health activities 1,737 1,510 15.0 10.2 8.7 16.6 15.3 11.8 30.3 3.4 3.8 -10.5 28.6 32.1 -11.0 137.6 419.5 -67.2 12.2 1.1 1003.7 5.1 5.1 0.1 1.0 0.3 214.9 Q87 Residential care activities 1,209 1,059 14.2 7.2 6.3 14.9 7.2 8.1 -11.0 0.6 0.4 27.6 5.2 5.6 -5.8 34.6 17.7 95.4 14.1 1.4 927.2 0.6 0.6 -1.1 0.4 0.0 1,656.7 Q87.2 Residential care activities for mental retardation 1,406 1,223 15.0 8.4 7.3 14.3 6.2 14.3 -56.5 1.7 0.7 134.2 11.4 9.4 22.0 10.8 11.0 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 Q87.3 Residential care activities for the elderlv and disabled 1,150 1,003 14.7 6.9 6.0 15.6 8.4 5.4 56.0 0.3 0.4 -21.4 4.0 5.0 -20.1 39.9 19.0 110.1 14.7 1.7 777.4 0.4 0.4 6.1 0.5 0.0 1,507.5 Q87.9 Other residential care activities 1,376 1,241 10.9 8.3 7.4 12.2 10.4 7.7 34.8 0.2 0.2 -8.0 1.5 1.7 -11.1 23.0 4.3 432.2 17.5 1.8 870.6 0.2 0.2 10.5 0.3 0.0 4,557.1 Q88 Social work act. without accommodatione 1,425 1,218 17.0 8.6 7.4 16.8 11.2 9.3 20.4 0.4 0.6 -24.2 4.9 6.1 -20.4 121.3 74.8 62.2 12.7 2.7 377.2 0.5 0.7 -21.8 1.1 0.2 561.4 Q88.1 Social work act. without acco-mod. for the elderlv and disabled 1,289 1,079 19.4 7.9 6.6 19.2 9.2 7.6 21.2 0.4 0.5 -27.1 3.8 5.4 -30.1 252.0 38.7 551.9 10.2 2.3 338.4 0.4 0.6 -25.9 2.0 0.1 2,293.6 Q88.9 Other social work act. without accommodation 1,510 1,350 11.8 9.1 8.1 11.7 12.1 10.6 14.6 0.5 0.6 -25.0 5.6 6.8 -18.3 63.7 101.3 -37.2 14.3 3.0 377.2 0.6 0.8 -23.0 0.6 0.2 168.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,703 1,602 6.3 10.3 9.6 7.2 9.4 8.2 14.3 0.4 0.5 -24.7 4.4 5.2 -15.9 197.0 225.0 -12.4 8.5 9.2 -6.8 0.4 0.5 -19.7 1.0 1.3 -23.2 R90 Creative, arts and entertainment activities 1,657 1,412 17.4 9.8 8.3 18.4 10.5 7.7 36.2 0.4 0.6 -29.0 4.1 4.4 -7.4 162.1 99.5 62.9 9.0 15.6 -42.2 0.4 0.5 -18.3 0.9 1.1 -19.8 R91 Libraries, archives, museums 1,639 1,492 9.9 9.9 8.9 10.9 11.2 10.0 11.4 0.4 0.5 -24.9 4.3 5.6 -23.3 62.1 138.2 -55.0 12.5 9.0 39.5 0.4 0.5 -24.6 0.5 0.8 -43.0 R93 Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities 1,237 1,160 6.6 7.5 7.0 7.3 7.8 6.9 12.3 0.6 0.8 -25.9 5.9 7.2 -17.4 306.9 213.0 44.1 12.6 12.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 -22.6 3.1 2.3 36.1 Source: SORS; calculations for the public sector (from O to R according to SCA 2008) by IMAD. Note: As the number of paid hours increased somewhat more slowly than employment, the increase in the average gross earnings per hour is somewhat higher than the increase in the average earnings per employee. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 33 Selected Topics most notably in health activities (from 0.06% in 2008 to 0.66% in 2009) and residential care activities (from 0.02% last year to 0.40% this year). Given the limited funds, the average amount per recipient declined, as the number of recipients increased. The number of recipients was much higher this year, perhaps also as a consequence of the temporary abolishment of regular performance bonuses, which probably translated into a somewhat faster increase in the number of recipients of payments in arrears. Looking at activities, the amounts per recipient dropped by approximately one half in public administration, education and health activities, while health activities saw the greatest increase in the share of recipients. Both the amount per recipient and the share of recipients increased in social work (residential care and social care activities without accommodation), while both declined in arts, entertainment and recreation. Wage rises have thus far already come close to the growth that was, according to the estimate of the Ministry of Public Administration, supposed to be achieved after disparities have been eliminated. When the sectoral collective agreements were signed, it was estimated that wages would increase by close to 24% in health activities, 21% in social work, 18% in arts, entertainment and recreation, 12% in public administration, and by around 7% in education. According to the present statistical data, which already take into account the first two quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities in the public sector, wage rises have already come close to these estimates. In addition to the effect of the elimination of wage disparities, the statistical data on earnings also include the effect of wage rises due to other wage-forming components. While the effects of individual overtime payments on earnings can be monitored separately, it is impossible to determine the separate effects of payments included in payments in arrears, or the effects of promotions and reassignments to more demanding jobs, which are included in the basic wage. The above-estimated percentage has already been achieved in full in health activities, while in social work the percentage is around 4 p.p. lower than the estimate. In public administration, the increase is slightly more than 2 p.p. lower (9.8%) than estimated, in education approximately 1 p.p. (6.0%), while the increase in art, entertainment and recreation activities (with a significantly lower number of public sector employees than recorded by the statistical data) has not reached the above estimate. These data also indicate that it is necessary to rethink the agreed changes and that possible new agreements should not only aim at increasing components that influence wage growth. The UN Human Development Report 2009 The latest global Human Development Report explores migration flows and mobility.19 It deals with migration flows by applying the model of pull and push factors. This model, which is essentially based on economic factors, is expanded to include the socio-cultural and political factors. Applying a human development approach, the report analyses migration flows from the perspective of an individual as well as from the perspective of the areas of origin and destination. Thereby it draws attention to the often overlooked facts that migration affects every facet of human development; that it has both positive and negative implications, which reflect both at the macro level of countries, as well as at the micro level of individuals and their social networks. Furthermore, migration also has positive and negative effects on the places of destination as well as of origin. Similar to the prior research, this report finds migration to be driven by a number of causal factors; these are coupled with macro factors at the level of the countries of origin, as well as personal circumstances and characteristics of migrants.20 It shows that most people migrate in search of a better life - that is, of better opportunities and improved prospects. The findings of the report challenge and cast new light on common misconceptions about the dynamics of movement. First, contrary to commonly held beliefs, the share of world migrants has been stable for nearly 50 years, representing around 3% of global population. Second, movements between developing and developed countries represents only one third of all international migration. The bulk of international migration flows occur between developing countries or between developed countries. Third, at the global level, internal migration is much more frequent than international migration; using a conservative definition, the share of the internal migrants is four times as high as the share of those who have moved internationally. Fourth, there is a positive correlation between human development and emigration flows: nearly three quarters of all international migrants move to a country with a higher human development than in their country of origin.21 Fifths, it is people from the poorest countries who have the most to gain from migrating. It is estimated that a family migrating from Nicaragua to Costa Rica increases the probability that their child will be enrolled in school by 22%.22 However, poverty is one of the key obstacles to emigration, and people from the poorest countries move less. Sixth, small countries have the highest emigration rates, regardless of the level of human development. Indeed, the top 13 emigration countries in the world are small island states that are remote from 19 Human Development Report 2009. For definitions of terms and detailed analysis of Slovenian migration flows see the Social Overview 2008, IMAD. 20 See Social Overview 2008: 73. 21 See HDR 2009: 23. 22 See HDR 2009: 10. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 34 Selected Topics Table 12: Distribution of international migration, 1960-2005 Migration Immigration Emigration Annual rate of growth (%) Share of population (%) Proportion female (%) Emigration rate (%) By region 1960-2005 1960 2005 1960 2005 2000-2002 World 1.1 2.6 3.0 47.0 49.2 3.0 Africa 1.7 3.2 1.9 43.1 47.8 2.9 Asia 0.7 1.7 1.4 46.6 47.1 1.7 Europe 2.9 3.0 8.8 49.0 52.9 7.3 Latin America and the Caribbean 0.2 2.8 1.2 44.6 48.4 5.0 Northern America 2.8 6.7 13.6 50.8 50.3 1.1 OECD 2.6 4.1 8.4 48.7 51.1 3.9 EU-27 2.8 3.5 8.5 49.1 51.4 5.7 By human development category Very high HDI 3.1 4.6 11.1 48.6 50.9 3.4 High HDI 1.1 2.8 3.8 47.2 50.5 6.0 Medium HDI 0.6 1.7 0.8 46.1 46.8 1.9 Low HDI 1.6 3.9 2.3 45.0 48.9 3.9 Slovenia N/A N/A 8.4 N/A 46.8 5.21 Source: Human Development Report 2009, Statistics, Table A: Human movement: snapshots and trends. Note: 1The international movement rate was 7.6% in 2000-2002. Table 13: Regional distribution of international migrants, 1960 and 2010 Migration 1960 2010 By region Total migrants (millions) Share of world migrants (%) Share of population (%) Total migrants (millions) Share of world migrants (%) Share of population (%) World (excluding the former Soviet Union and former Czechoslovakia) 74.1 2.7 188.0 2.8 Africa 9.2 12.4 3.2 19.3 10.2 1.9 Northern America 13.6 18.4 6.7 50.0 26.6 14.2 Latin America and the Caribbean 6.2 8.3 2.8 7.5 4.0 1.3 Asia 28.5 38.4 1.7 55.6 29.6 1.4 Europe 14.5 19.6 3.5 49.6 26.4 9.7 Oceania 2.1 2.9 13.5 6.0 3.2 16.8 By human development category Very high HDI 31.1 41.9 4.6 119.9 63.8 12.1 High HDI 10.6 14.2 3.2 23.2 12.3 3.0 Medium HDI 28.2 38.1 1.7 35.9 19.1 0.8 Low HDI 4.3 5.8 3.8 8.8 4.7 2.1 Source: Human Development Report 2009, Table 2.1: Regional distribution of international migrants, 1960-2010, p. 30. world markets (such as Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis). Seventh, approximately half of the international migrants are women (48%). This share has been stable since 1960, which runs counter the theory of the feminisation of migration. However, the gender structure did change somewhat between 1960 and 2005: the share of women moving to the EU increased from 48% to 52% of the population, while the share of those going to Asia dropped from 47% to 45%. Eighth, "involuntary" migration still represents a high share of all movements; political refugees and fugitives account for about 7% of the world's migrants. Approximately half a million of them seek asylum in developed countries, 14 million live outside their countries of origin, most often in refugee camps of neighbouring countries, while some 26 million of people have been internally displaced. Another Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 35 Selected Topics vulnerable group consists of people (mainly young women) who have been trafficked. And lastly, there are increasingly large temporary flows of people; in the OECD countries, temporary migrants account for more than a third of all arrivals per year. Most of these temporary migrants move for work-related reasons. Migration has positive and negative implications, and its effects are visible at places of destination and origin, as well as at the level of individuals. Notwithstanding, they also depend on the profile of migrants. At places of destination, migration can influence demographic, economic and socio-cultural changes (e.g. the composition of the population, flows of information and ideas, technical innovation, enhancing cultural diversity and enriching local markets). In the destination countries, the negative impacts are often shown as increased intolerance and discrimination, populist and racial movements, and exploitation of the foreign work force. Migration also has positive and negative impacts in the countries of origin. With some regions being more critical than the others, the impacts of migration are greatest in the most exposed regions: when it comes to brain and capital drains, the impacts are negative. However, the nature of changes is mainly linked to who moves, how emigrants fare abroad and the extent of inflows of their knowledge and ideas, and remittances. If emigrants stay connected to their origin countries, emigration may have positive effects, at a country level, particularly over the longer term: inflows of part of their income (in the form of remittances) accelerate consumption in the countries of origin, thus contributing to better education and improved health. Over the longer term, they may have far-reaching effects on social norms, economic and cultural changes, such as job creation, flow of ideas, behaviour changes, etc. At a level of an individual, the effects depend on the personal circumstances and characteristics of migrants. Negative consequences of migration tend to be more frequent among the poorest and those with lower levels of formal education, as their decisions to move are often based on misleading prior information on opportunities and prospects outside their countries of origin. Due to their personal situation, they tend to be more vulnerable and more often fall victims of exploitation and discrimination in destination countries, which is why they are often trapped in a vicious circle of poverty. The consequences of migration are also reflected in the disintegration of social networks, with migrants feeling lonely, unwelcome, inferior and facing identity crises. The report thus stresses that models of costs estimates and impacts of migration should comprise as many factors as possible, from emotional costs (for example, families living together-apart), vulnerability and exposure of migrants to hazardous health conditions, to financial costs. Numerous countries have inadequate migrations policies, according to the report. In view of the freedom of movement and the right to long-term residence, these policies are mainly problematic in the area of admissions and treatment of immigrants: they often fail to respond to migration flows and local needs and demand for services (e.g. in households), imposing disproportionally high administrative costs by cumbersome procedures to obtain documentation and not encouraging the integration of immigrants. Due to inadequate policies and their implementation and monitoring, migrants frequently fall victims to exploitation and discrimination, and are hit hardest by the recession in many countries.23 The report asserts that migration policies reflect a lack of political will and decisive action on the part of the governments. Moreover, public debates on the consequences and costs of migration are largely absent. This is why it emphasises that policy makers should always ponder and weigh up the rights to the freedom of movement and the needs of the economy and demographic and social aspects on the one hand, and social and societal costs of migration on the other.24 The Slovenian migration policy also faces numerous challenges. IMAD analysed Slovenian migration trends in Social Overview 2008. Thereby, we drew special attention to the need for a comprehensive migration policy, which has yet to be developed, even though Slovenia already faces numerous problems regarding internal and international migration. In terms of attitudes towards immigrants, Slovenia's migration policy is considered average (as measured by the Migrant Integration Policy Index - MIPEX).25 It is closest to the optimum policy in the field of anti-discrimination policies and policies associated with family reunion (approx. 80% of the optimum score), and farthest away in the field of policies regulating political participation (20%) and access to nationality (40%).26 Selected indicators of human development In Slovenia, the values of the human development index (HDI), the gender-related development index (GDI) and the gender empowerment measure (GEM) increased between 2008and2009. Human development is high, and men and women have almost equal access to health, income and education. Nevertheless, economic and political power is still unevenly distributed by gender. Similar conclusions can also be drawn for other countries with high levels of human development. It should be emphasised that these indices, based on 2007 data, do not reflect the effects of the global economic crisis. The human development index (HDI) assesses wellbeing in three dimensions of human development: education, health and income.27 This year's HDI was calculated for 182 23 See HDR 2009: 40-3. 24 See Social Overview 2008: 74-6. 25 MIPEX measures integration policies for immigrants in 28 European countries in six policy areas which shape migrants' integration in the society (see Social Overview 2008: 83-4). 26 See Social Overview 2008: 84 (Figure 44). 27 See SEM, January 2008. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 36 Selected Topics Table 14: Human development indicators, EU-27, 20091 Figure 39: The HDI and GEM in the EU-27, 2009 HDI2 GDI2 GEM2 Austria 0.955 0.930 0.744 Belgium 0.953 0.948 0.874 Bulgaria 0.840 0.839 0.613 Cyprus 0.914 0.911 0.603 Czech Republic 0.903 0.900 0.664 Denmark 0.955 0.947 0.896 Estonia 0.883 0.882 0.665 Finland 0.959 0.954 0.902 France 0.961 0.956 0.779 Germany 0.947 0.939 0.852 Greece 0.942 0.936 0.677 Hungary 0.879 0.879 0.590 Irland 0.965 0.948 0.722 Italy 0.951 0.945 0.741 Latvia 0.866 0.865 0.648 Lithuania 0.870 0.869 0.628 Luxembourg 0.960 0.943 N/A Malta 0.902 0.895 0.531 Netherlands 0.964 0.954 0.882 Poland 0.880 0.877 0.631 Portugal 0.909 0.907 0.753 Romania 0.837 0.836 0.512 Slovakia 0.880 0.877 0.663 Slovenia 0.929 0.927 0.641 Spain 0.955 0.949 0.835 Sweden 0.963 0.956 0.909 United Kingdom 0.947 0.943 0.790 Average3 0.921 0.915 0.7214 St. dev. 0.04 0.04 0.12 Mediana 0.942 0.930 0.699 IRQ 0.075 0.069 0.209 Source: (2001-2009) Human Development Report. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, UNDP. Notes: 1Indices for the current year are calculated based on data of two years before. Index values in the table thus refer to 2007. 2Indices range between 0 and 1. ^on-weighted average. 4 Excluding Luxembourg. countries and the top ranked countries are Norway and Australia, and among the EU countries, Ireland and the Netherlands. Slovenia improved its HDI this year, and was ranked 29th (last year: 26th out of 179 countries). The life expectancy index increased again (from 0.878 to 0.886), as did the gross domestic product index (from 0.922 to 0.933), while the education index remained unchanged (0.969). Eight EU-27 countries are among the countries with very high human development (HDI > 0.955), while Slovenia is, along with the rest of the EU countries, in the group of countries with high human development (HDI > 0.833). 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 IE FR ES NL y > ♦ A IT ♦ / ^ D ♦ m \ * FI K • SI GR ♦ CY ♦ MT U-27 PT ♦ f FF LT», SK ♦ RO GEM Source: UNDP. The distribution of countries according to the gender-related development index (GDI) is somewhat different. The GDI measures development in the same dimension as the HDI, but is adjusted to account for inequalities between men and women. The lower the difference between the HDI and GDI, the smaller the gender gap in access to basic human resources; the higher the gender inequality in the three dimensions, the lower the GDI. Given that inequalities in access persist in most countries, the GDI is, in principle, lower than the HDI (but not necessarily the ranking). Australia tops the list, followed by Norway in second position. Among the EU countries, the top ranked countries were Sweden and France. In 2009 relative to 2008, the Slovenian GDI rose from 0.920 to 0.927 and represents 99.7% of the HDI. Slovenia was placed 24th, which means that 131 out of the 155 analysed countries had a less favourable HDI to GDI ratio than Slovenia. Only the shares of estimated earned income disaggrgated by gender increased in 2008-2009, while other indicators remained unchanged. The gender empowerment measure (GEM) is another indicator to assess gender inequality. It measures economic participation and decision-making (the share of women in senior and executive positions and the share of women in professional and technical positions), political participation (the share of women's parliamentary seats), and decision-making and power over economic resources (the estimated male-to-female earned income ratio based on data on the share of population by gender, the female and male shares of the economically active population, the ratio of female-to-male wages in the non-agricultural sector and GDP per capita in purchasing power parities). The GEM ranges between 0 and 1:1 as a maximum achievable score indicates that women and men are equally empowered (the male and female shares in the above-mentioned spheres of public life are equal and income is evenly distributed by gender). The distribution of countries changes considerably compared to the HDI 1.00 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 37 Selected Topics and GDI and the index value is, in principle, the lowest among the three. No country has reached the maximum value so far; the highest values are in Scandinavian countries, which are generally considered as the most egalitarian societies. The GEM was the highest in Sweden, Norway and Finland, while in Denmark it dropped below 0.900. Slovenia's GEM (0.641, last year 0.625) is still far below the maximum score: women occupy 34% of all senior and executive positions (last year 33%). In technical and professional positions, this ratio is somewhat more favourable, with women representing more than half of the employed (56%), while the lowest share of women (10%) was recorded in decision-making positions. The share of women in the Slovenian parliament is below the global average (19%) and considerably lower than in Scandinavian countries (43%; IPU 2009 data base). In terms of political representation of women, Slovenia can thus be compared with Arab countries, which, on average, have the lowest female representation in the world (9.7% in 2009). The ratio of male-to-female income did not change significantly in the two years (from 0.62 to 0.61). It was most favourable in Norway (0.77), which indicates that the countries are still far from the maximum achievable score. Self-sufficiency for agricultural commodities Slovenia is striving to achieve the highest possible level of basic food security, which is also one of the main aims of its agricultural and food policy. The basic goal of the agricultural policy is to produce safe, high-quality and affordable food in order to ensure food security and reach the highest possible self-sufficiency level for agro-food products.28 The food policy also pursues this Figure 40: Self-efficiency rate for basic agricultural commodities and products in Slovenia in 2004 and 2008 goal: to promote supply and demand for high-quality and nutritious food, which is produced locally and in a sustainable way, and thus improve the access of the population to local, sustainably produced food.29 In addition to general strategically vital independence from foreign trade, which would be of paramount importance particularly in times of disrupted supply, local production brings further benefits, such as a productive countryside and employment for the local population, as well as easy and quick delivery obviating the need for longdistance transport, which burdens the environment and simultaneously diminishes the quality of food. The level ofself-sufficiency for basic agricultural commodities differs in Slovenia, being lower for crops and higher for animal products. In Slovenia, food balance sheets (used to calculate self-sufficiency rates for crops) are made for individual sorts of cereals, cereals in total, and potatoes and vegetables.30 Self-sufficiency rates for these crops are very low, but fluctuate from year to year depending on how the harvest is impacted by the weather. In the last five years as a whole, the self-sufficiency rate for vegetables was less than 40%, for cereals less than 60%31, sand for potatoes around 70%. None of these products saw their self-sufficiency rates increase over the past five years: self-sufficiency for cereals remained more or less unchanged (due to lower consumption), while self-sufficiency for vegetables and particularly for potatoes dropped. With regards to animal products, balance sheets for Slovenia are made for all kinds of meat, meat in total, and eggs and milk. In all these categories, except pork and to a certain extent eggs, self-sufficiency was relatively good and stable in the observed period. In all analysed years, surpluses were recorded for milk and poultry meat supply, while the last three years also saw surpluses in the supply of beef. Self-sufficiency for vegetables is of particular concern, being exceptionally low and even deteriorating. Areas allocated to vegetables are modest in Slovenia, accounting for less than 2% in the structure of arable land use. The demand for vegetables is increasing, but is not matched by production. Approximately 78,000 tonnes of vegetables were produced in 2008, around 5% less than in 2004 and around 11% less than in 2005. Slightly more than one half was produced by market producers and the rest by non-market producers. The structure of total production is fairly uniform. Only four types of vegetables are grown on more than one half of arable land (white Source: SORS, Agricultural institute of Slovenia. 8 Agriculture Act, Official Gazette of the RS, No. 45/2008. 29 Resolution on the National Nutritional Policy Programme 2005-2010, Official Gazette of the RS, No. 39/2005. 30 There is no calculation of the self-sufficiency rate for Slovenian agro-food products as a whole, as food balance sheets were made for individual agricultural products. In addition to the above-mentioned ones, these products are sugar and rice (where Slovenia has practically no own production). The self-sufficiency rate is calculated as a ratio of domestic production to domestic consumption (which is intended for human food, processing or used for animal feed). The rate of self-sufficiency below 100 means a deficit, while the rate above 100 means a surplus in domestic production. 31 Only one quarter of cereal production was used for human food; cereals are mainly used for animal feed. 80 60 40 20 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 38 Selected Topics cabbage, beans, lettuce, onion: in 2008, they accounted for around 20%, 16%, 11% and 6% of total arable land, respectively), with three of them (white cabbage, lettuce and onion) making up more than one half of production: in 2008, they contributed around 34%, 11% and 7%, respectively, to total vegetable production. With less than one tenth of protected areas, production is mainly carried out outdoors. Supply is thus highly dependent on weather conditions, being also limited to the short time of the season. It is therefore little surprise that the market is becoming increasingly dependent on imports. Net imports totalled over 138,000 tonnes in 2008, up 29% from what was registered in 2004. Vegetable cultivation thus represents an ever greater window of opportunity for development of Slovenia's agriculture and rural areas, given that it also yields good results on small areas (with high labour intensity) and that domestic supply lags increasingly behind demand. Compared to other EU countries, Slovenia ranks at the tail end in terms of self-sufficiency for crops, while it is in the middle regarding self-sufficiency for meat. Even if EU Member States fail to report on their food balance sheets regularly, rough comparisons can be made. Only a handful of countries post lower self-sufficiency for crops than Slovenia: Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium for cereals (and Malta, where cereals are not grown), Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal and Ireland for potatoes, and only Germany for vegetables. The highest surpluses in cereals were recorded for France, in potatoes for Belgium (around 100%), and in vegetables for Portugal, Hungary and Spain (around 50%). In terms of self-sufficiency for meat, Slovenia is placed approximately in the middle of member states. Surpluses are highest in Denmark (as high as 300%), while Latvia, Luxembourg and Bulgaria are at the bottom of the list; however, the self-sufficiency rates exceed 50% also in these countries. In this light, Slovenia's self-sufficiency rate for meat (somewhat above 90%) is not very high, but it is nevertheless highly important to improve domestic production and local supply of food of plant origin. We could thus make better use of our natural resources, increase value added in agriculture, at the same time improving nutrition with fresh agricultural produce, which would also have a positive impact on population health. Milk prices In Slovenian agriculture, the falling of producer prices of milk is at the centre of attention this year. Milk prices declined notably, after recording significant growth the year before. According to the latest statistical data, the price of milk totalled EUR 0.25/l in August, nearly 28% less than at the beginning of 2008, when it was highest, and was at the same level as in mid-2000. According to the dairy farm data, it finally bottomed out in August, starting to rise in the autumn months. This is in line with expectations, given that milk prices are typically lowest in summer, after which time they start to rise, reaching their peak values by the end of the calendar year. It can be assumed that the period of extreme decline has come to an end and that the price will continue to rise in the following months. In Slovenia, the producer price of milk nevertheless declined less than the EU average, and is at the level of the average price in the EU. Being 4.0% lower in the first quarter of this year in Slovenia compared with the last quarter of 2007, it dropped by as much as 28.0%, on average, in the EU. It decreased in all countries, except Finland and Cyprus. In three countries (Belgium, Lithuania and Ireland) it even dropped by more than 40.0%. Greater price drops than in Slovenia were also recorded in the neighbouring Member States, which are Slovenia's main partners in foreign trade in milk: 33% in Hungary, 20% in Austria, 12% in Italy. Following these drops, the milk price in Slovenia hovers around the average price in the EU: the price of milk totalled EUR 24.7/100 l in Slovenia in May and EUR 24.4/100 l, on average, in the EU. The highest prices were recorded by producers in Cyprus (EUR 49.9/100 l), followed by Greece, France and Finland (around EUR 37/100 l), and the lowest in certain east European countries (Lithuania and Latvia around EUR 16/100 l). The prices in Italy and Austria, the countries to which Slovenia net exports raw milk, were higher (by 21.3% and 15.2%, respectively), while in Hungary, from which raw milk is imported in net, the milk price was lower (by 16.4%). The common agricultural policy provides different forms of financial assistance to milk producers, which continues to rise in times of the milkproduction crisis caused by disparities between the increases in supply and demand. Milk prices in the EU declined as a direct consequence of lower prices of milk on world markets. Prices fell owing to higher global production (in New Zealand, Australia, Argentina and Brazil) and a concurrent decline in demand related to the economic crisis. Being a crucial agricultural sector, milk Figure 41: Producer prices of milk in May 2009 and changes in Q1 2009/Q4 2007 in the EU CY GR LUSE DK IE NLD""- EU ■ J,DE ■ UK ■ ■ C7 ■ BE PL c7HU "EE IT " SK r ■ LV -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 Change Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, Dairy market situation 2009, July 2009. 50 45 40 FI -R 35 IT 30 ES AT PT 25 SI BG 20 10 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 39 Selected Topics production is supported by different forms of financial assistance. The common agricultural policy provides various forms of support for producers (advanced direct payments, income support measures) and production (private storage aid, export refunds, intervention buying), as well as the growth in demand and restructuring of the dairy sector.32 Slovenian producers were also granted one-off financial assistance to weather the crisis, in the amount of EUR 2 m. It should be taken into account that in this situation, the conditions of production also had a beneficial effect in Slovenia, even though under usual circumstances they do not contribute to better business results in this sector. Specifically, a significant number of agricultural holdings also earn income from other (non-agricultural) activities, because besides milk production, most agricultural holdings are also engaged in other activities. They can thus offset worse business results in this sector by earnings from other activities, thereby making it easier to tide over a crisis. retailers) is unfair and the dairy supply chain does not function efficiently. The Commission points out that more attention should be paid to enhancing transparency and supporting a fairer market operation. The dialogue between all actors in the food chain should be stimulated further, also through adoption of a European-wide code of conduct as recommended by the High Level Group on the Competitiveness of the Agro-Food Industry. Higher effectiveness and efficiency of the dairy supply chain seems essential to increase its competitiveness, to soften the fall in producer prices and to ensure that price changes are passed on to consumers. The falling of producer prices always raises the question of when we can expect consumer prices to follow suit. With producer prices of milk plummeting in Slovenia over the past year (as in other countries of the EU), the prices of milk, dairy products and eggs in the CPI have remained at the exceptionally high level of the beginning of 2008. According to the Commission of the European Communities, the distribution of value-added in the dairy food chain (between producers, processors and Figure 42: Comparison of producer price growth and milk, dairy products and eggs in the CPI, Slovenia, monthly, the average of 2005=100 £ .E Ü 5 100 -Milk, dairy products and eggs in the CPI - Producer prices of milk J V I 1 1 I I I Source: SORS. 140 130 120 90 80 32 Financial supports are becoming an increasingly important part of agricultural producer income. After the agricultural policy reform in 2007, the dairy sector is no longer entitled to direct financial assistance, while in 2006, financial assistance accounted for around 12% of the value of milk production at basic prices, according to the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The system of how the financial assistance was changed with the reform is fairly complicated, making direct recalculation impossible. In 2008, total subsidies already accounted for more than 60% of total agriculture's factor income. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 43 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autumn forecast 2009 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.3 4.5 5.8 6.8 3.5 -7.3 0.9 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 27,162 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,135 35,870 36,386 38,058 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 13,599 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,367 17,657 17,866 18,647 GDP per capita (PPS)1 18,700 19,600 20,700 22,200 23,100 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 86.4 87.4 87.6 89.2 92.1 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,760 28,506 30,683 33,854 36,278 35,244 35,527 37,004 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,716 28,362 30,467 33,627 35,993 35,065 35,441 36,783 Rate of registered unemployment 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.6 10.9 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.0 2.5 3.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 1.0 1.5 2.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.8 Exports of goods 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -19.0 3.6 6.5 Exports of services 10.9 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -13.5 6.1 7.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -19.8 1.8 4.9 Imports of goods 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -21.9 1.3 4.8 Imports of services 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -6.1 4.4 5.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -720 -498 -771 -1,646 -2,287 -82 10 29 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 15,343 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 38,5184 - As a per cent share relative to GDP 56.7 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.46 1.27 1.27 1.27 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.7 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 As a % of GDP* 55.0 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 53.7 53.8 53.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.2 -1.5 0.0 As a % of GDP* 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.1 19.7 19.4 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 5.6 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.0 -2.0 3.0 As a % of GDP* 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 23.7 23.2 23.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4End August 2009; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 44 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.7 7.2 -1.4 7.5 7.5 5.3 6.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.7 -24.2 9.3 3.8 11.0 3.0 1.3 B Mining and quarrying 7.5 5.5 -0.6 18.5 8.1 -7.3 13.8 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.1 -13.8 30.6 -7.2 -0.9 -5.9 -16.4 C Manufacturing 6.2 8.5 -1.6 8.8 8.2 7.2 6.9 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -20.3 -25.4 9.6 4.7 12.7 4.4 4.0 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -1.0 -11.1 2.1 -14.8 -5.0 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.6 -9.1 -1.6 -8.2 -10.9 -14.4 -21.5 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 18.5 15.7 32.6 16.2 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 33.5 2.3 7.3 6.2 -14.3 Buildings 17.1 14.3 11.5 31.0 7.3 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 17.1 -8.7 0.5 18.4 -5.4 Civil engineering 14.6 21.9 18.9 33.8 23.3 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 48.5 10.5 11.7 -2.3 -21.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 18.4 0.1 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 -2.3 12.1 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 8.3 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.2 -15.7 12.9 13.4 16.8 11.7 7.0 Real turnover in retail trade 2.7 6.1 12.2 3.2 7.8 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.7 -11.7 6.3 12.8 11.0 9.5 8.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 17.8 19.2 6.2 21.3 24.8 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.1 32.7 16.0 32.7 17.7 3.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.1 15.0 15.1 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.8 12.7 13.2 19.5 19.2 7.5 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 10.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 9.6 3.6 4.6 8.3 4.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 13.7 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 7.2 -3.7 4.2 2.6 9.6 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 7.9 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 11.0 7.8 4.8 13.7 -0.9 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 2.3 -2.8 1.2 4.0 2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.9 -12.2 6.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 41.8 40.7 46.2 53.1 61.0 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 1 15 13 11 10 7 3 -16 -25 -24 14 12 12 10 11 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 10 12 -5 13 12 10 7 1 -5 -23 -29 -26 12 11 11 9 10 - in construction 4 17 3 22 15 13 14 10 3 -17 -41 -52 17 11 11 10 18 - in services 27 29 22 30 30 26 30 27 25 7 -14 -18 30 27 27 23 28 - in retail trade 22 27 23 26 29 30 29 29 26 9 -16 -17 28 34 28 30 31 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -8 -10 -18 -20 -16 -16 -29 -39 -31 -8 -16 -17 -19 -17 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.2 12.9 1.7 14.8 3.8 6.8 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -17.9 -21.7 -16.5 -29.3 -21.9 -21.3 -20.1 -16.9 - - 23.1 18.8 3.6 9.5 -4.4 5.6 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -6.0 -3.1 -8.9 -21.7 -10.3 -8.1 4.2 13.1 - - 5.8 13.6 2.0 15.6 4.2 6.7 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -19.4 -23.8 -17.7 -30.8 -23.2 -22.1 -21.3 -18.4 - - -6.3 1.2 -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.6 -1.9 -3.2 -9.9 -5.3 -11.8 -10.1 -8.0 - - 39.4 40.5 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.6 - - 56.3 44.8 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.9 - - 23.9 36.8 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 18.1 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.6 -8.8 -16.9 -17.3 -13.1 -15.1 -14.9 - - 12.8 23.8 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.2 -13.4 -5.4 -9.9 -15.3 -10.3 -12.1 -13.7 -17.8 - 34.7 26.3 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.5 -24.5 -20.4 -34.6 -25.6 -23.1 -25.4 -20.2 -25.7 - 21.6 30.1 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -17.0 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 -25.3 -20.9 -27.4 -25.2 - - 2.9 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.0 -4.0 - 12.1 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 9.0 2.0 - -2.6 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 -7.0 -7.0 - -2.5 3.6 -5.7 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -7.6 -12.3 -9.5 -11.7 -13.5 -13.6 -12.4 -9.8 - - 38.5 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 - - 11 10 10 10 7 5 4 4 2 -5 -20 -23 -24 -24 -26 -26 -23 -22 -22 -21 -18 -20 9 6 6 4 1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -13 -27 -29 -30 -29 -29 -28 -26 -25 -25 -22 -19 -17 13 12 17 13 10 8 6 0 2 -5 -17 -29 -37 -40 -47 -54 -49 -54 -51 -56 -55 -55 28 31 31 30 26 24 24 27 24 19 4 -3 -9 -14 -19 -23 -17 -14 -13 -12 -8 -8 26 28 32 29 30 27 29 25 24 25 4 -3 -14 -14 -20 -17 -17 -18 -16 -10 -10 -11 -23 -20 -16 -12 -18 -19 -18 -19 -12 -18 -33 -35 -43 -38 -37 -41 -29 -23 -26 -27 -16 -26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 46 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 40.4 39.7 40.8 39.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 39.9 39.9 39.3 39.3 In industry, construction 310.9 321.9 330.4 321.4 324.1 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 323.6 325.2 327.1 327.9 Of which: in manufacturing 221.7 223.6 222.4 223.9 223.4 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 223.1 223.5 224.4 224.7 in construction 69.5 78.4 87.9 77.5 80.6 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 80.5 81.5 82.5 83.1 In services 476.2 491.6 509.1 490.5 492.1 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 491.1 494.3 498.1 500.3 Of which: in public administration 50.4 50.3 51.0 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 50.4 50.4 50.5 50.5 in education, health-services, social work 108.0 108.8 111.1 109.0 108.2 109.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 107.6 109.1 109.7 109.9 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 741.6 766.0 789.9 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 83.3 87.9 89.4 87.9 87.6 87.6 8 6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 85.8 71.3 63.2 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.1 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 9.6 9.3 9.0 TO 6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 1.9 -4.8 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 24.8 14.4 16.0 9.1 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.2 4.4 6.0 4.0 13.1 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.6 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 TO 6 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 40.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 9.9 16.9 18.2 13.6 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 39.2 40.7 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 325.3 325.8 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.8 223.5 223.7 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 81.8 82.1 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 499.9 500.9 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.8 50.7 50.9 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 30.1 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 - 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.7 -1.2 -1.9 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.3 7.1 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 3.9 3.7 5.5 2.1 2.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.1 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 9.7 14.5 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 48 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 5 6 7 8 9 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.' 5.5 4.6 5.8 5.2 6.9 5.7 4.9 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.6 8.3 9.2 7.4 7.0 ''.4 '0.3 9.3 '0.8 6.7 '.2 '.6 7.7 5.4 8.4 9.0 3.6 B Mining and quarrying 4.5 6.4 '3.6 3.8 5.3 '2.6 9.4 '3.8 '6.0 '4.8 5.6 2.4 4.3 4.2 6.' 3.3 6.6 C Manufacturing 5.6 7.0 7.6 6.' 7.0 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 6.0 5.2 7.6 7.' 6.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 5.5 6.2 9.4 4.9 5.2 11.1 9.3 '0.' 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 2.4 9.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3.7 7.' 7.8 5.6 6.8 '0.0 8.3 9.' 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 5.5 3.7 7.7 6.' 6.8 F Constrution 6.4 6.6 7.6 6.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.' 4.3 '.2 '.0 7.8 4.6 8.6 5.4 3.3 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 5.3 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.' 4.4 2.3 6.9 6.8 7.9 7.8 6.9 H Transportation and storage 3.6 6.0 8.5 4.6 5.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 '0.4 6.6 2.3 2.' 5.4 3.4 6.4 5.3 5.4 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.' 5.3 8.4 5.' 4.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 '0.0 4.9 3.4 '.7 4.6 5.7 5.7 4.9 3.2 J Information and communication 3.9 5.7 7.3 5.4 5.7 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.' 4.' 6.2 7.6 6.3 3.2 K Financial and insurance activities 8.6 7.4 6.' 7.8 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 '0.' 6.8 8.9 7.7 2.2 L Real estate activities 4.6 7.0 6.0 7.8 7.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 '.6 0.0 7.7 8.9 8.6 7.7 5.9 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.9 7.0 8.4 6.8 7.' 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.' 6.4 4.0 3.3 7.' 6.2 8.0 6.7 6.6 N Administrative and support service activities 2.5 7.5 9.5 5.9 9.4 9.8 8.6 ''.4 '0.2 8.0 6.6 2.' 6.6 5.9 8.9 9.7 9.5 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2.9 5.' '2.2 4.9 6.5 6.4 '0.8 '3.2 '3.7 ''.5 9.8 5.2 5.7 8.7 4.9 5.9 P Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 5.6 3.' 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.' 6.3 5.' 4.2 2.6 2.4 Q Human health and social work activities 2.4 3.' '2.0 3.7 4.0 2.' 5.5 4.3 '6.8 2'.0 2'.4 22.6 3.6 4.3 5.4 3.4 3.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation '.3 3.6 5.4 2.3 4.0 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.' 7.0 5.7 0.8 4.4 5.0 3.2 3.7 S Other service activities '.5 3.3 8.' 2.9 3.0 5.' 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.' '.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 2.2 2.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,' nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 '.2 '.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 '.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.' 0.4 0.0 '.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.6 2.4 '.0 2.2 2.3 '.8 '.2 '.0 -0.' 0.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.' 2.3 2.4 2.' USD/EUR '.256 '.37' '.47' '.348 '.374 '.449 '.500 '.562 '.504 '.3'7 '.302 '.362 '.35' '.342 '.372 '.362 '.390 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 'Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's '7 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 49 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 7.4 16.1 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 8.8 9.4 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 8.1 9.4 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 12.1 9.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 8.2 12.6 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 6.7 7.7 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 7.1 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 6.2 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 7.0 8.8 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 8.1 -2.6 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 13.8 8.0 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 5.0 7.6 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 8.3 10.0 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 9.7 10.2 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 5.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.3 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 2.9 7.4 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 2.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 2.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 0.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.423 1.468 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 50 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 5.1 5.7 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 7.6 6.9 10.0 13.3 11.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 8.1 8.5 7.6 6.4 6.6 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 2.7 4.1 3.1 1.8 3.5 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 1.9 3.2 1.4 6.7 8.2 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 4.5 3.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 2.5 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 1.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.6 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 6.5 6.9 7.6 7.9 9.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 4.0 3.4 3.6 5.1 5.7 Core inflation (trim mean*) 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.1 2.6 4.6 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.5 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 5.3 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 5.6 4.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 0.0 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 2.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 3.0 3.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 1.3 -2.6 -3.6 2.2 8.4 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 -0.8 -5.5 -6.6 2.1 10.3 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 -6.0 0.7 -5.7 14.3 6.5 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 2.2 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 4.3 2.9 -2.3 3.9 7.1 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: *In monthly basis, hence some minor revisions of historical data are p< those published previously. The electricity market was l ine with met ssible. 1 the beralized on hodology, the measure of core inflation ("Trimm mean") is optimised on structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to July 2007. Data from luly 2007 onwards are not comparable. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 51 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 12.9 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 2.1 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.0 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 8.0 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.4 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 4.3 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.6 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 1.9 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 6.4 6.5 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 7.9 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 9.8 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 6.6 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 52 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -77' -',646 -2,287 -274 -538 -692 -425 -486 -642 -733 -207 2'4 -''2 -'73 -'60 -'97 Goods' -',666 -2,650 -359 -40' -664 -489 -668 -75' -743 -'30 29 -''7 -'95 -'80 -'9' Exports '7,028 '9,798 20,048 5,027 4,927 5,062 5,084 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,943 4,080 ',478 ',708 ',855 ',78' Imports '8,179 2',464 22,698 5,386 5,328 5,726 5,573 6,0'7 5,789 5,320 -4,073 -4,05' ',595 ',903 2,035 ',973 Services 993 ',047 ',609 330 306 '67 334 475 487 3'4 265 320 '24 '05 67 46 Exports 3,572 4,'45 5,040 ',002 ',259 ',0'8 ',053 ',299 ',480 ',209 928 ',057 447 385 37' 297 Imports 2,580 3,098 3,43' 672 953 85' 7'9 824 993 895 -664 -737 324 280 303 25' Income -440 -789 -',039 -207 -376 -'35 -'50 -259 -394 -236 -2'2 -'50 -'09 -5' -52 -35 Receipts 872 ','69 ',264 293 298 343 266 326 335 336 252 249 9' ''0 ''' ''' Expenditure ',3'2 ',957 2,303 50' 674 478 4'6 585 729 572 -464 -399 200 '60 '64 '46 Current transfers -'73 -239 -206 -38 -67 -60 -'20 -33 '6 -69 -'29 '6 -'0 -33 5 -'7 Receipts 785 94' 783 233 230 278 '44 '90 229 220 ''9 247 93 65 '07 89 Expenditure 958 ','80 989 27' 296 338 264 223 2'3 289 -248 -23' '04 97 '0' '06 Capital and financial account ',092 ',920 2,395 240 384 982 435 74' 632 588 -'27 -28 39 7 '7' 3'' Capital account -'3' -52 -43 -27 -32 -8 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 40 3 -24 7 5 Financial account ',223 ',972 2,438 267 4'6 990 443 738 640 6'8 -'23 -68 36 3' '64 305 Direct investment -'74 -2'0 38' -40 9 56 ''4 -'42 '28 28' -'32 -303 5' -'42 '03 -'00 Domestic abroad -687 -',3'7 -932 -295 -438 -256 -'25 -450 -236 -'22 -'29 -323 -6' -224 8 -'62 Foreign in Slovenia 5'3 ','06 ',3'3 255 447 3'2 239 308 364 402 -3 20 ''2 82 96 62 Portfolio investment -',442 -2,255 575 -',203 378 -806 305 -','52 '65 ',257 873 ','69 '20 24 -360 -483 Financial derivatives -'3 -'5 46 0 -20 '2 30 4 5 6 -23 -7 -7 4 4 Other investment ',57' 4,3'3 ',4'5 ',52' '7 ',665 75 ',947 340 -947 -954 -979 -'20 246 397 9'2 Assets -',939 -4,74' -562 -4'9 -',365 -574 -978 -'87 388 2'5 805 -277 -345 -427 -290 -360 Commercial credits -442 -400 -'43 -'80 29 '36 -5'8 -'70 -9 554 5' 4 '55 -'56 -233 -'7 Loans -733 -',895 -54' -456 -44' -627 5' -442 '58 -308 277 -73 -'48 -74 -'3' -'37 Currency and deposits -743 -2,454 ''7 2'7 -942 -85 -502 385 258 -23 47' -2'0 -355 -'96 66 -207 Other assets -2' 7 5 0 -'2 ' -9 40 -'9 -7 7 2 3 8 Liabilities 3,5'0 9,054 ',977 ',940 ',382 2,239 ',054 2,'34 -48 -','62 -',759 -703 225 673 687 ',273 Commercial credits 479 499 -67 55 -89 266 '79 309 -'9 -537 -380 -89 -303 '55 '63 97 Loans 2,064 3,84' ',868 ',554 9'0 ',345 644 ',472 242 -490 -5'7 -',320 254 426 2'0 88' Deposits 998 4,727 '90 338 567 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 -858 700 28' 98 328 299 Other liabilities -30 -'3 -'3 -7 -6 '6 -22 7 2 ' -5 6 -8 -6 -'4 -4 International reserves2 ',28' '40 2' 32 64 -8' 80 ' 2' ''4 46 -8 -9' 20 -28 Statistical error -32' -273 -'08 34 '54 -290 -'0 -255 '0 '46 334 -'86 74 '66 -''3 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',680 ',936 2,24' 508 466 505 523 576 598 544 444 465 '40 '59 '8' '66 Intermediate goods 9,368 '0,436 '0,760 2,670 2,559 2,597 2,752 2,893 2,730 2,385 ',98' 2,006 778 864 959 928 Consumer goods 5,709 7,035 6,808 ',746 ',79' ',850 ',753 ',8'7 ',648 ',590 ',477 ',570 522 650 678 65' Import of investment goods 2,565 3,03' 3,44' 736 755 882 773 928 862 878 58' 545 2'4 295 305 302 Intermediate goods '',3'9 '2,875 '3,735 3,2'2 3,'63 3,348 3,4'7 3,668 3,543 3,'07 2,366 2,329 955 ','04 ','63 ','86 Consumer goods 4,456 5,60' 5,870 ',446 ',4'2 ',506 ',459 ',520 ',475 ',4'6 ','92 ',227 424 5'0 575 490 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 53 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 -335 -178 -117 -130 -120 -201 -165 -347 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -37 -112 -58 43 70 100 54 -61 -293 -188 -134 -166 -160 -285 -223 -263 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -33 -31 -66 -40 12 58 -10 -133 1,426 1,618 1,710 1,757 1,866 1,716 1,767 1,809 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,216 1,296 1,430 1,309 1,337 1,434 1,403 1,069 1,719 1,806 1,844 1,923 2,026 2,002 1,990 2,071 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 1,501 -1,249 -1,328 -1,496 -1,349 -1,326 -1,376 -1,413 -1,202 53 109 106 118 152 170 152 124 166 196 149 107 58 107 63 95 106 108 105 109 144 350 339 335 378 422 433 444 516 487 478 446 372 392 311 281 336 348 348 361 440 424 297 230 229 260 270 263 291 391 320 281 296 264 334 -204 -218 -242 -242 -240 -256 -331 -280 -48 -41 -41 -69 -82 -70 -107 -214 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -78 -71 -63 -56 -52 -43 -49 -48 120 88 88 90 111 106 108 111 115 109 108 105 124 88 83 81 80 83 86 82 81 167 128 129 159 193 177 215 325 165 239 191 187 195 -166 -154 -145 -136 -135 -128 -131 -129 -48 -59 -48 -13 -31 -15 12 5 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -34 -73 -23 34 2 -20 4 -23 83 32 54 58 38 58 93 64 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 49 112 75 60 70 44 130 91 102 71 69 73 81 59 82 73 90 89 110 -63 -113 -72 -78 -72 -80 -66 -67 500 86 228 121 192 346 202 411 187 34 -130 279 439 90 -117 -101 20 101 -148 13 16 -20 -9 0 2 5 -3 1 -6 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 44 -3 -2 521 95 228 120 188 349 201 417 188 35 -134 239 512 98 -115 -106 23 102 -193 16 18 53 32 -13 95 -49 -9 -84 125 51 -48 -40 85 235 55 -62 -126 -42 -175 -86 -91 61 -102 -32 -25 -68 -160 -128 -163 -116 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -24 -51 -53 -96 -208 -20 7 -12 155 65 11 163 111 119 78 241 85 38 41 94 267 80 -10 -73 54 33 -66 -98 73 36 16 692 -403 -452 -457 -243 134 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -96 1,005 282 -118 866 -112 4 10 10 10 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 0 4 -5 0 8 356 36 -497 536 602 797 548 229 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -354 -685 85 -936 -71 28 -706 32 76 147 -960 -165 384 194 -766 112 -79 355 -435 19 632 122 593 90 -212 -819 754 -687 679 386 -79 -226 -212 -25 -98 -47 16 147 -172 -43 132 465 146 -45 -50 23 41 -61 -7 72 -359 175 -44 -80 17 -205 -254 255 -377 280 -286 73 -95 34 218 25 35 -49 -59 -57 59 56 37 -684 145 346 506 -468 -164 153 269 -115 -191 283 -69 410 129 -270 -810 869 -622 542 -6 14 -5 -18 46 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 279 -111 463 702 218 603 1,314 117 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -476 -1,278 -5 -724 748 -726 -19 -647 6 -81 105 155 93 220 -4 38 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -377 -5 2 -36 -33 -21 7 -89 254 117 217 311 -173 512 1,133 112 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1,339 14 -69 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 34 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 72 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 -165 92 -111 9 -72 -145 -37 -64 -30 104 366 -115 -105 -53 228 158 -64 -171 48 -67 45 159 147 178 199 193 192 191 203 152 243 201 185 158 128 153 163 172 143 150 148 N/A 710 891 934 927 1015 925 953 976 756 998 981 816 589 646 639 696 649 655 702 723 N/A 522 561 580 612 635 578 603 607 411 629 638 511 441 429 492 556 478 524 568 517 N/A 276 248 252 274 316 312 300 294 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 248 190 183 172 162 N/A 998 1,116 1,145 1,156 1,225 1,222 1,221 1,291 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 782 745 802 819 761 757 811 833 N/A 441 466 474 519 518 503 500 520 404 551 544 441 431 353 388 452 415 407 406 430 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 54 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2,367 2,162 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 212 107 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 124 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6,818 7,827 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18,105 21,149 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2,305 2,815 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 2,494 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2,401 3,666 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26,555 32,113 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 In foreign currency 3149.0 1,990 2,370 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 Securities, total 1286.8 3,570 3,346 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,903.4 20,029 23,129 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 Overnight 1,178.6 6,887 6,605 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 With agreed maturity -short-term 1,251.2 8,913 10,971 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2,857 4,157 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1,372 1,396 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,454.5 559 490 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 520 Overnight 552.7 218 215 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 226 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 220 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 45 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 29 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.43 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - 5.63 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 2.781 3.851 3.851 3.75 | 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 55 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 4.00 4.001 4.001 4.25 1 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.501 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.001 1.00 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 - 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 - Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 56 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 12,958.7 14,006.1 15,339.2 3,454.0 3,429.1 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,282.6 3,543.8 1,222.7 1,024.1 1,323.7 1,323.1 Current revenues 12,395.3 13,467.2 14,792.3 3,374.9 3,332.1 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 1,168.9 1,003.3 1,259.4 1,236.3 Tax revenues 1 1,762.0 12,757.9 13,937.4 3,199.7 3,123.6 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 1,099.5 934.2 1,194.1 1,168.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,735.3 2,917.7 3,442.2 914.3 646.3 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 251.4 226.3 233.4 235.7 Social security contributions 4,231.2 4,598.0 5,095.0 1,123.7 1,139.1 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 377.9 382.1 385.1 397.3 Taxes on payroll and workforce 472.9 418.1 258.0 99.7 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 33.6 33.9 34.1 36.5 Taxes on property 189.1 206.4 214.9 58.0 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 31.4 15.2 16.3 29.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,077.3 4,498.6 4,805.3 973.0 1,135.5 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 395.4 264.6 514.5 459.9 Taxes on international trade & transactions 50.7 117.1 120.1 30.7 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 9.6 12.0 10.4 9.1 Other taxes 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Non-tax revenues 633.3 709.2 854.9 175.2 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 69.4 69.0 65.3 68.1 Capital revenues 166.8 136.6 117.3 15.2 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 17.1 8.9 14.6 15.7 Grants 5.4 11.9 10.4 2.8 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 Transferred revenues 42.8 42.5 53.9 1.4 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 39.7 Receipts from the EU budget 348.4 348.0 365.4 59.6 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.4 187.9 36.6 10.4 47.6 30.6 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,208.7 13,915.5 15,441.7 3,392.6 3,240.0 4,081.8 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.9 1,090.3 1,055.3 1,140.5 1,249.6 Current expenditures 5,689.0 5,950.9 6,557.5 1,448.5 1,362.2 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 463.5 447.9 483.8 500.7 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,180.3 3,276.9 3,578.9 851.7 814.4 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.7 1,006.0 273.7 269.6 266.2 273.5 Expenditures on goods and services 2,073.2 2,212.2 2,527.5 482.6 518.0 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 546.5 617.4 183.4 164.4 187.4 212.1 Interest payments 376.4 357.0 335.2 105.3 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 3.3 7.4 26.6 4.9 Reserves 59.0 104.8 116.0 8.9 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 3.2 6.5 3.7 10.3 Current transfers 5,925.8 6,143.9 6,742.2 1,665.6 1,456.0 1,565.1 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 467.0 463.7 473.7 547.1 Subsidies 402.9 423.4 476.5 137.9 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 13.0 18.0 18.0 25.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,871.5 5,093.3 5,619.2 1,359.2 1,211.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 403.6 401.1 405.0 470.5 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 624.1 595.3 598.3 158.4 145.3 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 47.1 40.6 49.6 48.9 Current transfers abroad 27.4 32.0 48.2 10.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 3.3 4.0 1.1 2.2 Capital expenditures 901.4 1,130.5 1,255.5 162.9 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 236.6 104.2 90.5 117.3 121.0 Capital transfers 404.6 334.3 458.6 55.0 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 23.2 23.8 35.6 49.4 Payments to the EU budget 287.9 355.9 427.9 60.6 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 96.6 32.4 29.5 30.1 31.3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -250.0 90.6 -102.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 57 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1,413.0 1,134.1 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,091.7 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,241.7 1,285.7 1,309.4 1,104.1 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,243.8 1,057.4 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 300.3 223.0 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 469.4 394.7 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 50.3 20.0 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 13.3 8.7 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 398.0 404.6 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 12.2 6.3 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 65.7 46.6 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.9 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.3 31.9 11.1 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 69.0 17.7 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 21.9 70.6 39.3 78.0 35.4 1,691.7 1,030.3 1,140.4 1,218.0 1,228.6 1,363.5 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,477.7 1,331.8 1,249.7 673.7 451.0 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.5 539.0 285.3 268.6 266.0 285.1 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 305.5 333.4 326.8 312.8 374.1 319.1 325.8 321.9 155.0 168.6 199.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 171.8 178.9 195.8 212.5 202.0 202.8 206.9 5.2 22.9 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 61.3 4.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 544.3 460.5 517.3 512.1 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 49.2 5.0 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 428.5 418.1 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 62.3 35.7 37.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 4.3 1.8 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 329.0 53.7 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 83.7 87.3 87.4 96.3 9.0 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.8 48.4 56.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 40.1 16.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 58 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2009 Acronyms Acronyms AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoE - Bank of England, BS -Bank of Slovenia, CPB - Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European union, GDI - Gender-related Development Index, GEM - Gender Empowerment Measure, HDI - Human Development Index, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, GDP - Gross domestic product, IMF -International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, MPA - Ministry of Public Administration, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, NIC - National Institute of Chemistry Slovenia, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, UNDP - United Nations Development Programme. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E- Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F-Construction, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities., M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - reducing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, , SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.