Investigating Position of Qaen City in Regional Development Based on Future Study Approach: Scenario Planning Položaj mesta Qaen v regionalnem razvoju na podlagi študije prihodnosti: načrtovanje scenarijev Abstract The modern world is defined by abrupt and rapid changes. Due to the importance of the potential future development awareness, future studies approaches are now an academic subject offered by several of the world’s most prestigious institutions. Undoubtedly, this knowledge is a principal instrument of the information era. This research looked at Qaen’s position in regional development using a futures studies method and presenting strategic future thinking in city planning. It is based on the goal of applied research and data-gathering techniques used in descriptive-analytical studies. Environmental monitoring methods (i.e., observations, interviews, and questionnaires) were employed to evaluate the present state of Qaen City. The acquired data were analysed using Spss and MicMac software. To improve Qaen’s position in the regional development process, a structural equations questionnaire was designed with a Likert scale based on current needs and problems, emphasising the most crucial variables and indicators of Qaen’s urban development. The final scenario aims at improving Qaen’s position in the regional development process. According to the findings, only one scenario shows potential circumstances for enhancing the city’s position in regional growth in the future; two are static state scenarios, and the other six are crisis mode scenarios. The scenario proposed by the first group includes favourable conditions based on relative economic growth, GDP, production and industrial prosperity, provincial investment, favourable policies, university development, investment security, favourable production technology, favourable employment, and improving the network of main roads that will have the greatest impact on Qaen City’s regional development process. Keywords: future study, regional development, scenario planning, MicMac, Qaen City, South Khorasan Province Izvleček Sodobni svet zaznamujejo velike in hitre spremembe. Zavedati se moramo, kaj nam prinaša prihodnost, zato so prihodnje študije akademski predmet, ki ga danes nudijo najbolj prestižne svetovne ustanove. Tovrstno znanje je nedvomno eden od ključnih instrumentov informacijske dobe. Namen pričujoče raziskave je bil s pomočjo metode prihodnjih študij ugotoviti položaj mesta Qaen v regionalnem razvoju in predstaviti strateško razmišljanje o prihodnosti pri načrtovanju mesta. Študija izhaja iz ciljev Marzieh Amini Ferdowsi University of Mashad, Department of Geography, Iran marziyeaminim@gmail.com Dr. Mohammad Rahim Rahnama Ferdowsi University of Mashad, Department of Geography, Iran COBISS: 1.01 Dr. Barat Ali Khakpour Ferdowsi University of Mashad, Department of Geography, Iran Dr. Mohammad Ajza Shokohi Ferdowsi University of Mashad, Department of Geography, Iran 11 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja Introduction The industrial era has been pushed upon humanity by advances in science and technology. We are now observing the rise of the trans-industrial age, the information age, and the virtual era. The transition from the industrial to the information waves has had unique consequences, and those who want to avoid being dismayed and seize the golden opportunity must equip themselves with the essential mechanisms of this era and rely on the Information Age and virtual age’s special planning tools to stay ahead of the competition (Pourazat & Firouzfar, 2012). 1 Futures studies were characterised as “great science” in the United States Air Force in the mid-20th century, referring to a consciously ordered science that is the cornerstone of progress (Pourmohammadi et al., 2016). On the other hand, individuals, companies, cities, and regions keep facing a complicated and unpredictable future. The only method and policy likely to be more effective in this climate of change, instability, and uncertainty is the hunt for future architecture (Daim et al., 2009). Due to fast environmental changes and the ensuing unpredictability, the necessity for strategic planning and futures studies to cope with potential changes has been increasingly evident in recent years (Forani & Hosseinloo, 2012). Iran, a developing nation, has a great deal of cultural, social, and economic variety, and planning thought in Iran has been through numerous ups and downs over the course of history. Be it short-term budget allocations or developing one-, five-, and twenty-year plans, land planning is imperative. Meanwhile, planning thought has evolved from a conventional approach to strategic planning and, ultimately, strategic thinking. According to experts, the future may vary significantly from the past and the present in that it will not necessarily follow historical patterns (Zali, 2009, p. 10). Qaen City has a wonderful opportunity to form a special economic zone owing to its strategic (geographical, political, and economic) location and abundant resources (i.e., agriculture-friendly climate conditions; rich and diverse (non-)metallic mineral resources; natural areas, landscapes, and tourist attractions, especially nature tourism; efficient and young workforce, etc.). Given the city’s potential, this part of the study aims to discover the variables and reasons impacting the province’s sluggish growth. Relevant planning is needed to reach the desired outcome. In light of the overall regional conditions, Qaen City is far from the objectives and prospects of upstream programs in various city areas. Therefore, to achieve the province’s development goals and opportunities, the main problems and obstacles in the city’s development must be identified and resolved through accurate and effective planning methods. Adopting a strategic approach to determine the priorities is essential. The role of the city of Qaen in the regional development of South Khorasan Province is one of the most significant concerns uporabnega raziskovanja in tehnik zbiranja podatkov, ki se uporabljajo v deskriptivno- -analitičnih študijah. Za oceno trenutnega stanja mesta Qaen smo uporabili metode spremljanja okolja, na primer opazovanje, intervju in vprašalnik. Pridobljene podatke smo analizirali s programsko opremo Spss in MicMac. Za izboljšanje položaja mesta Qaen v procesu regionalnega razvoja smo oblikovali vprašalnik s strukturnimi enačbami z Likertovo lestvico, ki temelji na trenutnih potrebah in problemih, s poudarkom na najpomembnejših spremenljivkah in ključnih kazalnikih razvoja mesta Qaen. V zaključku je bil oblikovan scenarij za izboljšanje vloge mesta Qaen med procesom regionalnega razvoja. Mesto se spogleduje z devetimi možnimi scenariji, od katerih eden nakazuje potencialne okoliščine za izboljšanje vloge mesta v regionalnem razvoju v prihodnosti, dva ohranjata statično stanje, šest pa je kriznih scenarijev. Scenarij prve skupine vključuje ugodne pogoje, ki temeljijo na relativni gospodarski rasti, BDP, proizvodni in industrijski blaginji, naložbah province, ugodnih politikah, razvoju univerz, varnosti naložb, ugodni proizvodni tehnologiji, ugodnem zaposlovanju in izboljšanju omrežja glavnih cest, kar bo imelo največji vpliv na regionalni razvoj mesta Qaen. Ključne besede: prihodnje študije, regionalni razvoj, načrtovanje scenarijev, MicMac, mesto Qaen, provinca Južni Horasan 12 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja addressed in this research. What are the city’s growth possibilities and the intended scenario for enhancing Qaen’s position in the South Khorasan regional development process? Theoretical Framework Future Study A precise definition of futures studies is equivocal since individual philosophers offer diverse formulations based on their skills and interests. Furthermore, the notion of futurism is constantly evolving due to the short lifespan of such information and experience. Nonetheless, several definitions of future investigations have been proposed thus far (Khazaei and Elahi, 2012, p. 11). „A process through which one may get a thorough grasp of the dynamics that create a long-term future and can be considered in establishing policies, planning, and decision- making,“ maintains Joseph Kotz. Future discussions include a variety of “possible”, “probable,” and “desirable” to transform from the present to the future (Moghimi, 2014, p. 4). In their view, future terms fall into at least three categories: A: FUTURES, FUTUROLOGY, FUTURES STUDIES B: FORECASTING C: FORESIGHT Most Group A concepts have the same meaning as futures studies and futurism, which is why anything dealing with the future falls under this category. FORECASTING employs a more scientific approach to making future predictions, relying on quantitative methods and precise scientific models. As a result, it is often translated as “future prediction,” whereas FORESIGHT means foresight, implying a human activity to shape the future. Consequently, we may describe these three groups using the terms “futurism,” “future watching,” and “foresight” (Tadbir, 2006, p. 6). Future Observations According to Ben Martin, “/f/oresight is a methodical approach to assessing the long-term future of science, technology, economics, and society in order to suggest areas for strategic study. Common technology with the greatest potential for economic and societal benefit” (Mozaffari, 2010, p. 23). As stated by Luke Georgiou, futures studies are a methodical technique for analysing scientific and technical advancements that have a significant influence on industrial capability, income production, and quality of life (Saheqinejad, 2006). Futures studies are outlined in one of the most relevant ways: Invest money into it, and “/t/hey are likely to be financially and socially beneficial. In truth, future studies imply planning for the future and making the greatest use of available resources in accordance with values” (Tehran Development Foundation, 2005). • This is a process, not a method that can be predicted. • It is an interdisciplinary endeavour. • It takes a long-term approach. • It integrates various perspectives on technological advancement, the economy, politics, and society. • It is a supportive instrument for decision- making and policymaking. • It aims to promote social and technological innovations in the private and public sectors. Regional Development With regard to planning, regional development does not refer to national development at the national level, which includes five-year or multi- year development plans for an entire territory, nor does it refer to sectoral and local planning, which only addresses the issues and potentials of a village. The region, city, or province is planned separately from other regions. However, it refers to the methods of planning an area that may include multiple significant cities in a region or numerous provinces or states, regionally and globally, in order to attain relative supremacy and to obtain the opinions of authorities and legislators in that area while benefiting from the region‘s balanced development and progress consistently (Mehdizadeh, 2006). Regional development is the concept for individuals living within the region‘s physical limits. The growth process must coincide with an increase in the capacity of the region‘s residents to broaden their options for human development in the social and political arenas (Exchange, 1998, p. 41). To fundamentally modify the current understanding of planning, regional development necessitates the organic linkage of two levels of local and national activities at their interface, i.e., the region (p. 14). The three aims of regional development are productive, social, and biological. The goal is to create optimal conditions and facilities for long-term growth, reduce and eliminate the disparity in regional and intra-regional quality of life and make the most extensive possible use of a region‘s natural 13 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja resources and people‘s abilities to accomplish these two objectives (Khazaei, 2007). Regional development aims to increase overall wealth while distributing it more evenly across various areas and ethnic groups. If we merely consider growth in terms of landscaping, we can see that regional development still has a long way to go in terms of creating a diverse and equal society. According to Ziari, the well- being of people and places is frequently at odds in regional development. It takes precedence over employment creation in other areas as it establishes an area where psychological and economic costs of migration are avoided, and natural resources, capital equipment, and social infrastructure are utilised. Indeed, when there is a waste of space, such as the expenses of capital growth and migration to specific locations for competitive activities or scarcity of natural resources, the priority of producing employment in the place of residence is dropped. However, this priority is generally quite evident and, conversely, unobservable, which is why regional development initiatives that emphasise location are sometimes implemented with enthusiastic public support even if they lose public favour (Ziari, 2004, p. 14). Study Area Sedeh and Nimblak are the two central districts of Qaen County. Mahmu’i, Mohammadabad, Futile, Nimbolok, Karghand, Sedeh, Afriz, and Quanjan are the county’s eight villages. Altogether, there are 172 settlements in the county in total. Qaen City is the main site in South Khorasan Province, with significant capacity in mining, agriculture, tourism, and other fields, as well as various potential threats, such as security and the environment. Perhaps the greatest and, at the same time, the most challenging case study we have used in our research. Methodology This study employs descriptive-analytical research methodologies, focusing on the goal of applied research. Environmental monitoring methods, such as observations, interviews, and questionnaires, were adopted to assess the present state of Qaen City. The collected data Map No. 1: Geographical location of Qaen County 14 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja were analysed using Spss and Micmac software. Following an assessment of Qaen City’s current situation, a structural equations questionnaire was created with a Likert scale based on the current needs and problems, emphasising the most important variables and indicators of Qaen City’s urban development. Using the Delphi method, it was distributed to 30 city managers and 382 citizens using the Cochran sampling method. Finally, we created a scenario to improve the city’s position and used scenario software for scenario analysis in the regional development process. The validity of the questionnaire was supported by expert comments. Cronbach’s alpha, which was 0.78, indicated that the questionnaire had the desired high reliability. Inferential t-values were used to analyse the questionnaire data. Research Findings Analysing Status of Qaen City’s Position in Regional Development of South Khorasan Province In this part, we evaluate the city of Qaen’s position in the province of South Khorasan’s regional growth. The residents received a questionnaire that covered economic, spatial- physical, social, and environmental issues. Economic Variable of Regional Development Poverty indicators, employment rate, exchange rate, investment opportunities, competition level, production level, smuggling rate, tourist sector, foreign investment attraction level, and financial and monetary market level are all economic variables that affect regional development (influence of banks and financial and credit institutions). The findings of the questionnaire analysis revealed that all indicators, with the exception of the exchange rate index, were below average (average 3). Physical-Space Variable of Regional Development Physical-space variables of regional development include infrastructure indicators, ease of access to transportation, strategisation level, tourist attractions, accommodation, and welfare facilities, government support for the private sector, crime level, and technology. The results of the questionnaire analysis revealed that all indicators were below average, except for the crime level decrease index (average 3). Social Variable of Regional Development Social variables of regional development include quality of life indicators, cultural and ethnic ties, increased social involvement, growth of Table 1: Economic variable of regional development N Mean Std. Deviation Descriptive Statistics 381 2.5354 1.41121 Qaen City development has reduced the level of poverty in the region. 381 2.5066 1.42278 Qaen City development has increased the level of employment in the region 381 3.1864 1.33157 The development of Qaen City increases the currency exchange inside the country. 381 2.5643 1.39706 Qaen City development has increased investment opportunities in the region. 381 2.7900 1.30707 Qaen City development has increased the level of competition in the quality of goods in the region. 381 2.6352 1.17461 Qaen City development has increased the level of production in the region 381 3.0262 2.40927 Qaen City development has reduced the level of trafficking in the region 381 2.6509 1.39413 Qaen City development has increased the level of tourism industry in the region 381 2.4961 1.38530 Qaen City development has increased the level of attracting foreign investment in the region 381 2.4199 1.14111 Qaen City development has increased the level of financial and monetary market (influence of banks and financial and credit institutions) in the region in the region. 381 Valid N (listwise) 15 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja cultural and religious centres, increased skilled labour, social justice, development of social interactions, increased social capital, and livability. The questionnaire analysis revealed that all indicators, with the exception of the development index of cultural and religious centres, were below average (average 3). Regional Development Environmental Variable Indicators of the physical-space variable in regional development include green space development, improved energy supplies, reduced Table 2: Physical-space variable of regional development N Mean Std. Deviation Descriptive Statistics 381 2.5486 1.30420 Qaen City development has increased the infrastructure in the region 381 2.9423 1.19948 Qaen City development has increased the ease of access to transportation in the region 381 2.7874 1.21371 Development of Qaen City increases the level of strategisation in the region 381 2.7297 1.32303 Qaen City development has increased the level of tourist attractions in the region 381 2.0499 1.25871 The development of Qaen City has led to the development of accommodation and welfare facilities in the region 381 2.5643 1.27700 Qaen City development has increased the level of government support for the private sector in the region 381 3.2073 1.13395 Qaen City development has reduced the crime rate in the region 381 2.6378 1.28146 Qaen City development has led to the promotion of technology in the region 381 Valid N (listwise) Table 3: Social variable of regional development N Mean Std. Deviation Descriptive Statistics 381 2.2782 1.21883 Qaen City development has improved the quality of life in the region 381 2.6352 1.24424 Qaen City development has led to cultural and ethnic ties in the region 381 2.7816 1.07609 Qaen City development has increased social participation 381 3.0210 1.32767 Qaen City development has led to the development of cultural and religious centers in the region 381 2.6404 1.39523 Qaen City development has increased the skilled manpower in the region 381 2.5538 1.12173 Qaen City development has led to social justice in the region 381 2.6168 1.33185 Qaen City development has led to the development of social relations in the region 381 2.4908 1.28475 Qaen City development has increased social capital in the region 2.7375 1.32164 Qaen City development has made livability in the region 380 Valid N (listwise) polluting industries, environmental health promotion, and agricultural land conservation. The analysis of the findings revealed that all the variables were below average (mean 3). Analysis of Key Factors and Drivers Affecting Position of Qaen City in Regional Development The primary variables affecting the position of Qaen City in regional development were identified using the Delphi method. A team of experts and executors in the study area were asked to provide their thoughts on 16 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja Qaen’s regional development. Following the observations, 37 variables were identified as predominant. One of the most commonly used techniques in futures research is reciprocal or cross-effect analysis. We predict the impact (or likelihood of effect) of one variable on the other and calculate the total of these interactions in the process of interaction analysis. To accomplish this, Michel Godet, a Frenchman, developed structural analysis using Micmac software as Table 4: Regional development environmental variable N Mean Std. Deviation Descriptive Statistics 381 2.5538 1.22275 Qaen City development has led to the development of green spaces in the region 381 2.5302 1.71748 Qaen City development has improved energy resources in the region 381 2.5328 1.18193 Qaen City development has reduced polluting industries in the region 381 2.3150 1.33002 Qaen City development has led to the promotion of environmental health in the region 381 2.6404 1.35310 Qaen City development has led to the preservation of agricultural lands in the region 381 Valid N (listwise) Table 5: Factors affecting regional development of Qaen City N° Long label Short label N° Long label Short label 1 Improving the main road network Road 20 Method and capacity of agricultural products Agriculture 2 Employment structure Employment 21 Improving information technology infrastructure Foundation 3 Production technology produce 22 Coordination of organisations Coordinator 4 Improving the health network Health 23 Prosperity of the production and industrial sector Prosperity 5 Social participation participation 24 Hoarding and stock exchange Hoarding 6 Lack of social justice in the distribution of urban services Justice 25 Internationalisation of Yazdan Bazaar Market 7 Ethnicity Ethnicity 26 Increase investment in the province Investment 8 Biodiversity Biological 27 Development of social networks Networks 9 Skilled manpower Force 28 Energy sources Energy 10 Focus on activities Activity 29 The rate of delegation of powers to provincial and local levels Options 11 Urban green space green space 30 Relative economic growth Relative growth 12 Polluting industries industries 31 National gross product GDP 13 Water resources Water 32 Investment security Security 14 Development of universities University 33 Geopolitical position of the province Geopolitics 15 Production of science Science 34 Model of interaction and cooperation with Afghanistan Interaction 16 Development of social relations in the region Relations 35 Transnational role of the province Transnational 17 Entry and exit points of the city Basics 36 Reduction of government ownership Enterprise 18 Construction of the railway network of the province Riley 37 Macro policies of the government Policies 19 Drought and natural hazards Risks Source: Research findings, MicMac software output 17 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja part of strategic foresight (Gorane et al., 2012). During the research, 37 significant parameters influencing the regional growth of the city of Qaen were input into the software. General Analysis of System Environment Using the aforementioned Delphi method, 37 variables were identified as factors influencing the regional development of the city of Qaen. They were then analysed using interaction or structural effects analysis with the MicMac software to extract the primary factors influencing the future status of the study environment. Based on the number of variables, the matrix dimensions are 37 by 37. The influence of each component on the others was calculated (from 0 to 3) by arranging and weighting the elements in the matrix. All aspects of regional development, such as an interconnected system of segments, are considered a structure. Their interrelationships are assessed to determine the most influential factors. The degree of matrix fill is 97.15 percent, indicating the distribution of the factors influencing the future of Qaen City. This matrix contained 1330 evaluable associations, with 39 being zero, 502 being one, 744 being two, and 84 being three. In addition, the matrix’s 97 percent desirability and optimisation based on statistical indicators with two data rotations show the questionnaire and its respondents have high validity. The discussion that follows is an overview of the system environment and the identification of the most influential components. Table 6: Initial analysis of cross effects matrix data Amount Indicator 37 Matrix dimensions 2 The number of repetitions 39 No effect (zero) 502 Slight impact (one) 744 Medium Impact (Two) 84 High impact (three) 1330 Total 97.15% Filling rate Table 7: Degree of desirability and optimisation of matrix Rotation Impact Influence 1 97% 97% 2 100% 100% Scenario Making for Improving Status of Qaen City in Regional Development Process In this study section, the driving variables retrieved in the previous stage are the key axes impacting optimum management and scenario formulation to enhance Qaen City’s position in the regional development process. These are the fundamental elements for developing plausible circumstances and scenarios. Development of Probable Conditions of Key Propellants To construct a scenario based on the prominent variables, it was necessary to identify the anticipated future positions of Qaen City in the regional development process. As a primary prerequisite, developing scenarios necessitates an accurate study of future events and the identification of probability situations. The Delphi method was used to poll experts to determine plausible scenarios for each propulsion element. Future Portfolio Preparation and Analysis of Possible Scenarios During this stage of the study, ten drivers were presented with 30 alternative scenarios. The complexity of the three situation criteria determines the number of potential circumstances for each element. After developing the situations and creating a 30- 30 crossover matrix, as in the previous stage for identifying the crucial components, a questionnaire was designed and sent to 15 experts, including city affairs authorities (i.e., the municipality and city councils) and a group of specialists in this sector. The experts examined the effect of one of the thirty events on the (non-)occurrence of other situations. They completed a questionnaire (with weights between -3 and -3) and estimated the systemic impact of each incident. The following scenarios were extracted after analysing the questionnaire: two (2) very strong scenarios, nine (9) high-compatibility (believable) scenarios, and six hundred and three (693) weak scenarios. 18 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja Table 8: Probable conditions of propulsion factors to improve the position of Qaen City in regional development process Abbreviation Name Key Factors Probable situations A Relative economic growth A1 Favourability of relative economic growth A2 Lack of relative economic growth A3 Unfavourable relative economic growth B GDP B1 Increase in GDP B2 Continuing the current situation B3 GDP decline C Manufacturing and industrial prosperity C1 Rapid production and industrial prosperity C2 Continuing the current trend C3 Slow boom in production and industry D Investment in the province D1 Increasing investment in the province D2 Lack of investment in the province D3 Reduction of investment in the province E The government’s macro policies. E1 Improving the macro policies of the government E2 Continuing the current situation E3 Lack of improvement in macro government policies F University Development F1 Optimal development of universities F2 Continuing the current situation F3 Adverse development of universities G Investment Security G1 Increasing investment security G2 Continuing the current situation G3 Weakening investment security H Production Technology H1 Optimal production technology H2 Continuing the current situation H3 Unfavourable production technology I Employment Structure I1 Optimal job creation I2 Continuing the current situation I3 Unfavourable job creation J Main Roads Network J1 Improving the main road network J2 Lack of improvement of the main road network J3 Weakening of the main road network Strong Scenarios Analysis The two strong scenarios, one with promising or favourable circumstances and the other with critical conditions for Qaen City, both had very high scores and increased feasibility of occurring. In the first scenario, every possible situation was desirable; in the second one, every possible circumstance was undesirable. In practice, both are highly improbable, if not impossible. As a result, trusting these scenarios was irrational, so they were excluded from the analysis process. 19 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja Compared to the other alternatives, these two scenarios had the heaviest weight. Given the weight of strong possibilities, the second scenario had a higher chance of occurring and implied a crucial degree of regional development. Preliminary analyses of the nine possibilities show that the number of adverse events outnumbers the positive ones. Except for a few restricted scenarios with desired and developing characteristics, the other scenarios do not conjure up an image of a desirable and dignified city with vital missions toward the future vision. Importantly, for Qaen to reach its vision objectives and perform its future endeavours, it will face significant challenges. It is crucial to acknowledge the likelihood of their occurrence and plan for it. This outlook reduces the possibility of deviating from the correct path. Each potential scenario was examined to assess Qaen’s situation. This section is divided into three scenarios based on the state of the crucial components, to aid comprehension of the circumstances and the (un)favourable conditions’ relative importance. The numbers were replaced for this purpose and based on the scores of -3 and 3 assigned to each circumstance. A qualitative understanding of the scenarios page was also provided by substituting the circumstances with titles ranging from desirable to crisis, which may aptly illustrate the status and position of Qaen through the scenarios and each essential aspect. In other words, we replaced the three markers with colours, numbers, and terms describing the incident on the scenario page to indicate the basic circumstances. Unfortunately, critical or near-crisis situations cover a considerable portion of the scenario page, whereas good scenarios comprise but a tiny fragment. Out of 90 states (numbers) regulating the scenario page, 58 crucial states account for 64.44 percent, 17 static states account for 18.88 percent, and 15 ideal states account for 16.66 percent. This state indicates that most modes on the scenario screen are in critical mode, followed by static and optimum modes. Due to the commonality of the scenarios, they can fall into three categories, each including Table 9: Colorful spectrum and desirability of strong scenarios Relative economic growth A Relative economic growth A Lack of A2 economic growth Favourable economic growth A1 GDP B GDP B Decrease in GDP B3 Increase in GDP B1 Production and industrial prosperity C Production and industrial prosperity C Slow and quiet boom in manufacturing and industrial C3 Rapid boom in production and industry C1 Investment in D province Investment in D province Decreased investment in D3 province Increase investment in D1 province Macro policies of the government E Macro policies of the government E Lack of improvement of E3 government macro policies Improving macro government policies E1 University Development F University Development F Adverse University Development F3 Optimal development of universities F1 Investment Security G Investment Security G Undermining G3 investment security Increase G1 investment security Production technology H Production technology H Adverse production technology H3 Optimal production technology H1 Employment structure I Employment structure I Undesirable employment I3 Optimal job creation I1 Main Road Network J Main Road Network J Undermining the main road network J3 Improve the main road network J1 20 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja several cases with nearly identical characteristics among the ten primary criteria. The categories are: • optimal scenarios (including scenario 1), • static scenarios (including scenarios 2 and 3), • crisis scenarios (including scenarios 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9). Among the nine plausible future scenarios for the city of Qaen, one implies a positive situation, i.e., favourable circumstances for the future regional growth of Qaen. There are also two static state scenarios and six crisis situations for the future. The situations are categorised as follows. Scenario 1: Favourable conditions based on relative economic growth, GDP, productive and industrial prosperity, provincial investment, beneficial policies, government macro, university development, investment security, favourable production technology, and favourable employment, improvements to the main road network. Based on the first scenario in the first category, the anticipated future of the city of Qaen is promising. It incorporates the best and most desired circumstances for regional growth. In comparison to the other categories, this group enjoys the highest frequency of positive occurrences. Weighing the frequency of favourable situations and crises in this group against those of other groups reveals that the city of Qaen is in a suitable position in this group. These scenarios indicate favourable economic growth, an increase in the GDP , a rapid expansion of production and industry, an increase in investment in the province, an improvement in government policies, the favourable development of universities, an increase in investment security, favourable production technology, and favourable employment. Network enhancement is of paramount concern. In general, the suitable conditions confronting the city of Qaen are determined by the scenarios in this category. Scenarios of the second group: the process of slow and steady changes that maintain the status quo. This group has two scenarios, the second and the third. In terms of frequency, this category has the highest number of static states compared to others. When comparing the percentages of good conditions and crisis frequency in this group to those of other groups, it is clear the situation facing the city of Qaen in this group is essentially stable. The magnitude of this group’s impact differs significantly from that of the first and third groups. This category comprises provincial investment characteristics, macro government policies, production technology, and employment structure. Table 10: The status of each factor according to the scenarios and the desired triple spectrum up to the crisis Scenario / Propulsion Relative economic growth National gross product Prosperity of the production and industrial sector Investment in the province Macro policies of the govern- ment Development of universities Investment security Production technology Employment structure Main road network Scenario 1 Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Scenario 2 Optimal Static Static Static Static Critical Critical Static Static Optimal Scenario 3 Optimal Optimal Critical Static Static Critical Critical Static Static Optimal Scenario 4 Static Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Static Scenario 5 Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Static Scenario 6 Static Critical Critical Static Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Scenario 7 Critical Critical Critical Static Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Scenario 8 Static Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Scenario 9 Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical 21 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja Scenarios of the third group: critical and unfavourable conditions, impossibility of regional development. The fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth scenarios cover the crisis situations. The disparity between the number of desired and stagnant states and crises distinguishes this category. This group has the highest frequency of crisis circumstances compared to the others. When comparing the frequency of favourable situations and concerns with that of other groups, the city of Qaen faces a crisis in this group. Among the characteristics of possible futures are unfavourable relative economic growth, a decline in the gross domestic product, slow and prosperous production and industry, a decrease in provincial investment, a failure to improve macro government policies, and the unfavourable development of universities, the deterioration of investment security, unfavourable production technology, unfavourable job creation, and the deterioration of the major road network. Conclusion What is the role of Qaen City in the regional development of South Khorasan Province? To answer the first study question, indicators for assessing the city’s position in regional development were gathered from the research background and an opinion survey of experts and city managers. The employees and administrators of Qaen Municipality then completed a questionnaire. We compared the mean of a quantitative variable to a constant value (T-test) and used the mean equality test on a sample to analyse the indicators. The data on each criterion were gathered for the examination. Based on the questionnaire’s five- level scale, each option was assigned a number from 1 to 5: very low, low, somewhat, moderate, and very high. The lengths between Likert scale alternatives are also assumed to be the constant in this study. The results of the test of equality of means indicate that there is no significant difference in all economic, spatial-physical, social, and environmental factors with a significance level greater than 0.05, and these findings can be extrapolated to the entire group. As a result, it is 95 percent certain that the rate of these indicators is lower than the average. As a result of the findings, Qaen City appears to be at the bottom of South Khorasan Province’s regional development process. What are the most important critical factors and agents promoting Qaen City in regional development? What are the most important critical factors and drivers influencing the city’s position in regional development? After researching Qaen’s position in the regional development of South Khorasan Province, the next phase involved identifying the most significant key variables and pioneers influencing the city’s position in regional growth. Following the discovery and assessment of 37 variables based on the preceding themes, we identified ten elements as major drivers impacting the Table 11: Coefficients, number and percentage of each situation separately for each scenario based on the triple spectrum Scenario / Status Number of situations separately Coefficients of situations Total points Optimal Static Critical 3 1 –3 Scenario 1 10 0 0 30 0 0 30 Scenario 2 2 6 2 6 6 –6 6 Scenario 3 3 4 3 9 4 –9 4 Scenario 4 0 2 8 0 2 –24 –22 Scenario 5 0 1 9 0 1 –27 –26 Scenario 6 0 2 8 0 2 –24 –22 Scenario 7 0 1 9 0 1 –27 –26 Scenario 8 0 1 9 0 1 –27 –26 Scenario 9 0 0 10 0 0 –30 –30 22 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja promotion of Qaen City’s position in regional development, all of which reoccurred directly or indirectly. The following is a prioritised list of the most relevant factors: As shown in the table above, the primary variables and drivers influencing the advancement of Qaen City’s position in regional development are relative growth, GDP , prosperity, investment, and policies, respectively. In light of these essential characteristics, regional growth in the city of Qaen is possible. What are the development scenarios of Qaen City and the desired scenario to improve its position in the regional development process of South Khorasan? The study generated 30 plausible scenarios for ten propulsion variables. Given the intricacy of the circumstances, there are three possible outcomes for each element. After creating the instances and the 3030 cross matrix, a questionnaire was developed and distributed to experts (as in the previous stage) to identify the main components. Fifteen experts addressed the question of what impact the existence of one of the thirty events would have on the occurrence or absence of other situations. To complete the questionnaire, 58 crucial situations out of 90 controlling the scenario page corresponded to the number 58 critical situations, based on a weighting between -3 and -3, the rate of influence of each event on the system, after calculating the software. 64.44 percent were static, 18.88 percent were favourable, and 16.66 Table 12: Results of one-sample t-test to assess the indicators of the position of Qaen City in regional development One-Sample Statistics N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean Economic 381 2.6811 .47640 .02441 Space- Physical 381 2.6929 .45107 .02311 Social 380 2.6374 .49016 .02514 environmental 381 2.5144 .66691 .03417 One-Sample Test Test Value = 3 T Df Sig. (2-tailed) Mean Difference 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper Economic -13.066 380 .000 -.31890 -.3669 -.2709 Space- Physical -13.288 380 .000 -.30709 -.3525 -.2616 Social -14.419 379 .000 -.36257 -.4120 -.3131 Environmental -14.212 380 .000 -.48556 -.5527 -.4184 Table 13: Key influential propellants (direct and indirect) ranking Variable Direct impact Variable Indirect impact 1 Relative growth 347 Relative growth 347 2 GDP 334 GDP 336 3 Prosperity 330 Prosperity 331 4 Investment 330 Investment 330 5 Policies 321 Policies 320 6 University 316 University 317 7 security 316 Security 314 8 produce 307 Produce 308 9 Employment 303 Employment 305 10 Road 298 Road 300 23 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja percent were negative. This indicates that most states on the scenario page are in the critical condition, followed by the static state, and then the desirable state, which has the lowest value. In terms of proximity, the scenarios can fall into three categories, each consisting of several scenarios with fairly common characteristics, meaning little difference in one or more situations among the ten main factors. The groups are as follows: • optimal scenarios (scenario 1), • static scenarios (scenarios 2 and 3), • crisis scenarios (scenarios 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9). Among the nine plausible future possibilities for the city of Qaen, there is one scenario with favourable circumstances for enhancing the city‘s position in future regional growth, two static state scenarios, and six crisis mode situations. Situations are categorised as follows. First group scenarios (Scenario 1): Favourable conditions as a result of relative economic growth, GDP , manufacturing and industrial prosperity, investment in the province, favorable policies, government macros, university development, investment security, favourable production technology, favourable employment, and the enhancement of the main road network. According to the first scenario in the first group, Qaen City’s future looks promising, with the best and most advantageous conditions for regional growth. This scenario has the best conditions of all. By comparing the frequency percent of the desired condition and the crisis in this group with other groups, we demonstrate the suitable scenario confronting the city of Qaen in this group. These scenarios include favourable relative economic growth, increased GDP , rapid production and industrial prosperity, increased provincial investment, improved government macroeconomic policies, favourable university development, increased investment security, favourable production technology, favourable employment, and an optimised main road network. In general, the situations in this collection show the city of Qaen in a pleasant and suitable light. Second group scenarios: slow and steady changes, maintaining the status quo. This category includes two situations, i.e., the second and third scenarios. In terms of frequency, this group has the most static statuses compared to the other groups. When the frequency percentages of ideal and crisis situations in this group are compared to other groups, it is evident that Qaen City remains essentially unchanged. This group’s effects are noticeably different from those of the first and third groups. This category comprises provincial investment characteristics, macro-government policies, manufacturing technologies, and employment structure. Third group scenarios: critical and undesirable conditions, impossibility of regional development. This set of six scenarios, i.e., the fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth scenarios, covers crisis situations. The group is distinguished by the number of favourable, static, and crisis situations. It has the most crisis circumstances when compared to the other groups’ scenarios. A comparison of the frequency percent of the desired scenario and the crisis in this group to other groups demonstrates that the city of Qaen is in a state of crisis. Among the characteristics of this group of scenarios are the undesirable economic relative growth, the decrease in GDP , the slow growth of production and industry, the reduction in provincial investment, the failure to improve the government’s macroeconomic policies, the undesirable development of universities, the deterioration of investment security, the undesirable production technology, the undesirable employment, and the weakening of the main road network. According to the findings revealed that Qaen City ranks low in South Khorasan Province’s regional development process. The experts rated the variables in the form of an N * N matrix in the second stage of the interview to score the effects of the variables on each other. According to the findings of this study, relative economic growth, GDP , productive and industrial prosperity, provincial investment, favourable policies, government macro, university development, investment security, optimal production technology, optimal employment, and improving the road network are all factors to be considered. The most important ones will have the greatest impact on Qaen’s regional development. These variables are the most important in determining whether Qaen City’s regional development has been completed (or not); changes in regional development depend on them. As a result, the degree of control over these variables is critical. The scenario writing method generated strong scenarios in the current study, including thirty possible scenarios for ten drivers. Among the 24 GEOGRAFIJA V ŠOLI | 3/2022 širimo obzorja nine (9) plausible scenarios confronting the city of Qaen, one (1) favourable scenario shows promising conditions for improving the city of Qaen’s position in regional development in the future, two (2) are static state scenarios, and six (6) are crisis scenarios. The scenarios are organized as follows. First group scenarios (Scenario 1): adequate economic growth, GDP , productive and industrial prosperity, provincial investment, favourable policies, government macro, university development, investment security, optimal employment, optimum production technology, and improvement of the main road network. Second group scenarios: slow and steady process of change and maintaining the status quo. Third group scenarios: critical and unfavourable conditions and impossibility of regional development. Qaen’s future is bright, according to the first scenario in the first group. 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