Zbornik 24. mednarodne multikonference

•

INFORMACIJSKA DRUZBA

Zvezek B

Proceedings of the 24th International Multiconference

INFORMATION SOCIETY

Volume B

I S S 0 S I

Kognitivna znanost

Cognitive Science

Uredniki • Editors:

Toma Strle, Borut Trpin, Maša Rebernik, Olga Markič

7. oktober 2021 Ljubljana, Slovenija • 7 October 2021 Ljubljana, Slovenia • http://is.ijs.si





Zbornik 24. mednarodne multikonference

INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA – IS 2021

Zvezek B





Proceedings of the 24th International Multiconference

INFORMATION SOCIETY – IS 2021

Volume B





Kognitivna znanost

Cognitive Science





Uredniki / Editors



Toma Strle, Borut Trpin, Maša Rebernik, Olga Markič





http://is.ijs.si





7. oktober 2021 / 7 October 2021

Ljubljana, Slovenia



Uredniki:





Toma Strle

Center za Kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Borut Trpin

Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani



Maša Rebernik

Center za Kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Olga Markič

Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani





Založnik: Institut »Jožef Stefan«, Ljubljana

Priprava zbornika: Mitja Lasič, Vesna Lasič, Lana Zemljak

Oblikovanje naslovnice: Vesna Lasič





Dostop do e-publikacije:

http://library.ijs.si/Stacks/Proceedings/InformationSociety





Ljubljana, oktober 2021





Informacijska družba

ISSN 2630-371X



Kataložni zapis o publikaciji (CIP) pripravili v Narodni in univerzitetni knjižnici v Ljubljani

COBISS.SI-ID 85857795

ISBN 978-961-264-216-7 (PDF)





PREDGOVOR MULTIKONFERENCI

INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA 2021



Štiriindvajseta multikonferenca Informacijska družba je preživela probleme zaradi korone v 2020. Odziv se povečuje, v 2021 imamo enajst konferenc, a pravo upanje je za 2022, ko naj bi dovolj velika precepljenost končno omogočila normalno delovanje. Tudi v 2021 gre zahvala za skoraj normalno delovanje konference tistim predsednikom konferenc, ki so kljub prvi pandemiji modernega sveta pogumno obdržali visok strokovni nivo.



Stagnacija določenih aktivnosti v 2020 in 2021 pa skoraj v ničemer ni omejila neverjetne rasti IKTja, informacijske družbe, umetne inteligence in znanosti nasploh, ampak nasprotno – rast znanja, računalništva in umetne inteligence se nadaljuje z že kar običajno nesluteno hitrostjo. Po drugi strani se je pospešil razpad družbenih vrednot, zaupanje v znanost in razvoj. Se pa zavedanje večine ljudi, da je potrebno podpreti stroko, čedalje bolj krepi, kar je bistvena sprememba glede na 2020.



Letos smo v multikonferenco povezali enajst odličnih neodvisnih konferenc. Zajema okoli 170 večinoma spletnih predstavitev, povzetkov in referatov v okviru samostojnih konferenc in delavnic ter 400 obiskovalcev. Prireditev so spremljale okrogle mize in razprave ter posebni dogodki, kot je svečana podelitev nagrad – seveda večinoma preko spleta. Izbrani prispevki bodo izšli tudi v posebni številki revije Informatica (http://www.informatica.si/), ki se ponaša s 45-letno tradicijo odlične znanstvene revije.



Multikonferenco Informacijska družba 2021 sestavljajo naslednje samostojne konference:

• Slovenska konferenca o umetni inteligenci

• Odkrivanje znanja in podatkovna skladišča

• Kognitivna znanost

• Ljudje in okolje

• 50-letnica poučevanja računalništva v slovenskih srednjih šolah

• Delavnica projekta Batman

• Delavnica projekta Insieme Interreg

• Delavnica projekta Urbanite

• Študentska konferenca o računalniškem raziskovanju 2021

• Mednarodna konferenca o prenosu tehnologij

• Vzgoja in izobraževanje v informacijski družbi



Soorganizatorji in podporniki multikonference so različne raziskovalne institucije in združenja, med njimi ACM

Slovenija, SLAIS, DKZ in druga slovenska nacionalna akademija, Inženirska akademija Slovenije (IAS). V imenu organizatorjev konference se zahvaljujemo združenjem in institucijam, še posebej pa udeležencem za njihove dragocene prispevke in priložnost, da z nami delijo svoje izkušnje o informacijski družbi. Zahvaljujemo se tudi recenzentom za njihovo pomoč pri recenziranju.



S podelitvijo nagrad, še posebej z nagrado Michie-Turing, se avtonomna stroka s področja opredeli do najbolj izstopajočih dosežkov. Nagrado Michie-Turing za izjemen življenjski prispevek k razvoju in promociji informacijske družbe je prejel prof. dr. Jernej Kozak. Priznanje za dosežek leta pripada ekipi Odseka za inteligentne sisteme Instituta ''Jožef Stefan'' za osvojeno drugo mesto na tekmovanju XPrize Pandemic Response Challenge za iskanje najboljših ukrepov proti koroni. »Informacijsko limono« za najmanj primerno informacijsko potezo je prejela trditev, da je aplikacija za sledenje stikom problematična za zasebnost, »informacijsko jagodo« kot najboljšo potezo pa COVID-19 Sledilnik, tj. sistem za zbiranje podatkov o koroni. Čestitke nagrajencem!



Mojca Ciglarič, predsednik programskega odbora

Matjaž Gams, predsednik organizacijskega odbora



i

FOREWORD - INFORMATION SOCIETY 2021



The 24th Information Society Multiconference survived the COVID-19 problems. In 2021, there are eleven conferences with a growing trend and real hopes that 2022 will be better due to successful vaccination. The multiconference survived due to the conference chairs who bravely decided to continue with their conferences despite the first pandemic in the modern era.



The COVID-19 pandemic did not decrease the growth of ICT, information society, artificial intelligence and science overall, quite on the contrary – the progress of computers, knowledge and artificial intelligence continued with the fascinating growth rate. However, COVID-19 did increase the downfall of societal norms, trust in science and progress. On the other hand, the awareness of the majority, that science and development are the only perspectives for a prosperous future, substantially grows.



The Multiconference is running parallel sessions with 170 presentations of scientific papers at eleven conferences, many round tables, workshops and award ceremonies, and 400 attendees. Selected papers will be published in the Informatica journal with its 45-years tradition of excellent research publishing.



The Information Society 2021 Multiconference consists of the following conferences:

• Slovenian Conference on Artificial Intelligence

• Data Mining and Data Warehouses

• Cognitive Science

• People and Environment

• 50-years of High-school Computer Education in Slovenia

• Batman Project Workshop

• Insieme Interreg Project Workshop

• URBANITE Project Workshop

• Student Computer Science Research Conference 2021

• International Conference of Transfer of Technologies

• Education in Information Society



The multiconference is co-organized and supported by several major research institutions and societies, among them ACM Slovenia, i.e. the Slovenian chapter of the ACM, SLAIS, DKZ and the second national academy, the Slovenian Engineering Academy. In the name of the conference organizers, we thank all the societies and institutions, and particularly all the participants for their valuable contribution and their interest in this event, and the reviewers for their thorough reviews.



The award for lifelong outstanding contributions is presented in memory of Donald Michie and Alan Turing. The Michie-Turing award was given to Prof. Dr. Jernej Kozak for his lifelong outstanding contribution to the development and promotion of the information society in our country. In addition, the yearly recognition for current achievements was awarded to the team from the Department of Intelligent systems, Jožef Stefan Institute for the second place at the XPrize Pandemic Response Challenge for proposing best counter-measures against COVID-19. The information lemon goes to the claim that the mobile application for tracking COVID-19 contacts will harm information privacy.

The information strawberry as the best information service last year went to COVID-19 Sledilnik, a program to regularly report all data related to COVID-19 in Slovenia. Congratulations!



Mojca Ciglarič, Programme Committee Chair

Matjaž Gams, Organizing Committee Chair





ii

KONFERENČNI ODBORI

CONFERENCE COMMITTEES



International Programme Committee

Organizing Committee

Vladimir Bajic, South Africa

Matjaž Gams, chair

Heiner Benking, Germany

Mitja Luštrek

Se Woo Cheon, South Korea

Lana Zemljak

Howie Firth, UK

Vesna Koricki

Olga Fomichova, Russia

Mitja Lasič

Vladimir Fomichov, Russia

Blaž Mahnič

Vesna Hljuz Dobric, Croatia

Klara Vulikić

Alfred Inselberg, Israel



Jay Liebowitz, USA

Huan Liu, Singapore

Henz Martin, Germany

Marcin Paprzycki, USA

Claude Sammut, Australia

Jiri Wiedermann, Czech Republic

Xindong Wu, USA

Yiming Ye, USA

Ning Zhong, USA

Wray Buntine, Australia

Bezalel Gavish, USA

Gal A. Kaminka, Israel

Mike Bain, Australia

Michela Milano, Italy

Derong Liu, Chicago, USA

Toby Walsh, Australia

Sergio Campos-Cordobes, Spain

Shabnam Farahmand, Finland

Sergio Crovella, Italy





Programme Committee

Mojca Ciglarič, chair

Bogdan Filipič

Dunja Mladenič

Niko Zimic

Bojan Orel,

Andrej Gams

Franc Novak

Rok Piltaver

Franc Solina,

Matjaž Gams

Vladislav Rajkovič

Toma Strle

Viljan Mahnič,

Mitja Luštrek

Grega Repovš

Tine Kolenik

Cene Bavec,

Marko Grobelnik

Ivan Rozman

Franci Pivec

Tomaž Kalin,

Nikola Guid

Niko Schlamberger

Uroš Rajkovič

Jozsef Györkös,

Marjan Heričko

Stanko Strmčnik

Borut Batagelj

Tadej Bajd

Borka Jerman Blažič Džonova

Jurij Šilc

Tomaž Ogrin

Jaroslav Berce

Gorazd Kandus

Jurij Tasič

Aleš Ude

Mojca Bernik

Urban Kordeš

Denis Trček

Bojan Blažica

Marko Bohanec

Marjan Krisper

Andrej Ule

Matjaž Kljun

Ivan Bratko

Andrej Kuščer

Boštjan Vilfan

Robert Blatnik

Andrej Brodnik

Jadran Lenarčič

Baldomir Zajc

Erik Dovgan

Dušan Caf

Borut Likar

Blaž Zupan

Špela Stres

Saša Divjak

Janez Malačič

Boris Žemva

Anton Gradišek

Tomaž Erjavec

Olga Markič

Leon Žlajpah



iii





iv





KAZALO / TABLE OF CONTENTS



Kognitivna znanost / Cognitive Science .................................................................................................................. 1

PREDGOVOR / FOREWORD ................................................................................................................................. 3

PROGRAMSKI ODBORI / PROGRAMME COMMITTEES ..................................................................................... 4

Nevrofenomenološka študija skupinskih dinamik v spletnem učnem okolju: Preliminarni rezultati / Jaša Černe,

Selma Berbić, Mateja Kalan, Lucija Mihić Zidar, Uršek Slivšek, Urban Kordeš................................................. 5

The ONE-ness of change: an explorative neurophenomenological single case study on change in mood / Tine

Kolenik, Jaya Caporusso .................................................................................................................................. 10

Sensitivity of expected civilization longevity models / Anže Marinko, Maša Žaucer, David Susič, Matjaž Gams 22

Change ahead! Questioning and changing beliefs in online discussions / Lenart Motnikar, David Garcia,

Hannah Metzler ................................................................................................................................................ 26

Kaj se lahko naučimo od Jacques Mehlerja, klasičnega kognitivnega znanstvenika / Amanda Saksida ............ 31

Vpliv informacije o ceni na subjektivno oceno zvoka violin / Anja Šerbec ........................................................... 35

AI art: Merely a possibility or already a reality? / Tadej Todorović, Janez Bregant ............................................. 41

Compliance with COVID-19 preventive behaviors and proneness to cognitive biases / Manca Toporišič

Gašperšič, Nataša Grof .................................................................................................................................... 45

The ecological rationality of probabilistic learning rules in unreliable circumstances / Borut Trpin, Ana Marija

Plementaš ......................................................................................................................................................... 51

Indeks avtorjev / Author index ................................................................................................................................ 57





v





vi



Zbornik 24. mednarodne multikonference

INFORMACIJSKA DRUŽBA – IS 2021

Zvezek B





Proceedings of the 24th International Multiconference

INFORMATION SOCIETY – IS 2021

Volume B





Kognitivna znanost

Cognitive Science





Uredniki / Editors



Toma Strle, Borut Trpin, Maša Rebernik, Olga Markič





http://is.ijs.si





7. oktober 2021 / 7 October 2021

Ljubljana, Slovenia

1





2





PREDGOVOR





Na letošnji konferenci Kognitivna znanost sodelujejo avtorice in avtorji z različnih disciplinarnih področij in predstavljajo tako empirične rezultate svojih raziskav kot tudi teoretska raziskovanja z najrazličnejših področij – od psihologije in jezikoslovja do nevrofenomenologije, filozofije in umetne inteligence.



Upamo, da bo letošnja disciplinarno in metodološko bogata konferenca odprla prostor za izmenjavo zanimivih raziskovalnih idej ter povezala znanstvenice in znanstvenike z različnih disciplinarnih področij, ki se ukvarjajo z vprašanji kognicije.



Toma Strle

Borut Trpin

Maša Rebernik

Olga Markič





FOREWORD





At this year’s Cognitive Science conference, the authors present their empirical studies as well as theoretical research from a diverse range of disciplinary backgrounds – from psychology and linguistics to neurophenomenology, philosophy, and artificial intelligence.



We hope that this year's cognitive science conference – rich in disciplinary approaches and methodologies – will open space for exchanging intriguing research ideas and will bring together scientists from a diverse range of areas related to the exploration of the human mind.



Toma Strle

Borut Trpin

Maša Rebernik

Olga Markič





3





PROGRAMSKI ODBOR / PROGRAMME COMMITTEE



Toma Strle, Center za Kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Borut Trpin, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani

Maša Rebernik, Center za Kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Olga Markič, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani

Urban Kordeš, Center za kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Matjaž Gams, Odsek za inteligentne sisteme, Institut »Jožef Stefan«, Ljubljana ORGANIZACIJSKI ODBOR / ORGANIZING COMMITTEE



Toma Strle, Center za kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Borut Trpin, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani

Maša Rebernik, Center za Kognitivno znanost, Pedagoška fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani Olga Markič, Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Ljubljani



4

Nevrofenomenološka študija skupinskih dinamik v spletnem učnem okolju: Preliminarni rezultati

Neurophenomenological Study of Group Dynamics in the Online Learning Environment: Preliminary results

Jaša Černe

Selma Berbić

Mateja Kalan

Center za kognitivno znanost

MEi:CogSci

MEi:CogSci

Univerza v Ljubljani

Univerza v Ljubljani

Univerza v Ljubljani

Ljubljana, Slovenija

Ljubljana, Slovenija

Ljubljana, Slovenija

jasa.cerne@pef.uni-lj.si

selmaberbic2@gmail.com

mateja.kalan07@gmail.com

Lucija Mihić Zidar

Uršek Slivšek

Urban Kordeš

MEi:CogSci

MEi:CogSci

Center za kognitivno znanost

Univerza v Ljubljani

Univerza v Ljubljani

Univerza v Ljubljani

Ljubljana, Slovenija

Ljubljana, Slovenija

Ljubljana, Slovenija

lucijamihiczidar@gmail.com

slivsek@protonmail.com

urban.kordes@pef.uni-lj.si



POVZETEK

existence of various group dynamics at the level of experience

and psychophysiology, which represents the basis for further Učno okolje je prostor, v katerem se med udeleženimi v učnem

neurophenomenological analysis. We hope that the findings will

procesu ustvarjajo kompleksne skupinske dinamike. V prispevku

offer fresh insight into the increasingly common online teaching predstavimo

preliminarne

rezultate

eksploratorne

and help shape better learning approaches.

nevrofenomenološke študije, v kateri smo preučevali takšne dinamike v spletnem učnem okolju. Udeleženci so na štirih KEYWORDS

srečanjih



merili elektrodermalno aktivnost in ob naključnih

trenutkih vzorčili doživljanje. Po vsakem srečanju so izvajali Group dynamics, neurophenomenology, experience sampling,

fenomenološke intervjuje in se spoznavali s podatki. Rezultati so electrodermal activity, physiological synchrony, online learning pokazali obstoj različnih skupinskih dinamik na ravni doživljanja environment

in psihofiziologije, kar predstavlja osnovo za nadaljnjo

nevrofenomenološko analizo. Nadejamo se, da bodo ugotovitve

1 UVOD

ponudile svež uvid v vedno pogostejše spletno poučevanje in pomagale oblikovati boljše učne pristope.

Učno okolje sestavljajo učitelji in učenci, ki sodelujejo v izmenjavi znanja. Čeprav gre v osnovi za delovanje avtonomnih

KLJUČNE BESEDE

posameznikov, postane to delovanje včasih zelo usklajeno, tj.

tvorijo se skupinske dinamike [1]. V zadnjem času se je zvrstilo Skupinska

dinamika,

nevrofenomenologija,

vzorčenje

doživljanja, elektrodermalna aktivnost, fiziološka sinhronizacija več študij, ki skušajo raziskati naravo tovrstnih dinamik z

,

družnim raziskovanjem doživljanja (prvoosebni vidik) in

spletno učno okolje

nevrološke aktivnosti (tretjeosebni vidik) [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. Pokazale ABSTRACT

so, da obstaja korelacija med kolektivnim doživljajskim stanjem

A learning environment is a space wherein complex group

učencev v razredu (npr. čustveno atmosfero) in pripadajočo dynamics form between those who participate in the learning nevrološko oziroma psihofiziološko sinhronizacijo [2, 3, 4].

process. In this paper, we present the preliminary results of a Kljub temu, da se poučevanje vztrajno širi na splet [7], kar lahko exploratory neurophenomenological study in which we

predrugači običajne skupinske dinamike [8], se nobena takšna examined such dynamics in an online learning environment.

študija še ni ukvarjala s spletnim učnim okoljem. Z raziskavo, ki Throughout four sessions, participants measured electrodermal jo opišemo v tem prispevku, smo želeli zapolniti to vrzel.

activity and sampled their experience at random moments. After

Sodobni kognitivni znanosti povezovanje doživljajskega in

each session, they conducted phenomenological interviews and

nevrološkega nivoja ni tuje [9, 10]. Tretjeosebne opise, ki jih familiarized themselves with the data. The results showed the podaja npr. nevroznanost, je potrebno osmisliti skozi prizmo pripadajočih prvoosebnih opisov [11]. Toda slednji so pogosto pridobljeni s tehnikami, ki dajejo prednost posploševanju in Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or formalizaciji, zapostavljajo pa veljavnost in ločljivost [11, 12].

classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full Zaradi tega lahko ostane ogromno nevroloških variabilnosti, kot

citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must tudi morebitnih korelacij med prvoosebnim in tretjeosebnim be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

nivojem, spregledanih [13, 14]. Potencialno rešitev je v svojem Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

nevrofenomenološkem programu predlagal Francisco Varela

5





Nevrofenomenologija skupinskih dinamik

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



[11]. Poudaril je pomembnost poglobljenega, a sistematičnega rening v or en a do ivl an a in i va an a

pridobivanja

prvoosebnih

podatkov

in

združevanja

fenomenolo ih interv u ev

prvoosebnega in tretjeosebnega nivoja po principu vzajemnega

Pilotno sre an e in tri ra is ovalna sre an a

omejevanja.

Več

študij

je

pokazalo,

da

takšno

nevrofenomenološko raziskovanje ni samo izvedljivo, pač pa Prvoose ni nivo

ret eose ni nivo

lahko ponudi svež uvid v pereče probleme kognitivnih znanosti

(za nedavni pregled glej [12]). Tehnika za pridobivanje or en e

er en e ED

prvoosebnih podatkov, ki je bila že večkrat uspešno uporabljena

do ivl an a

v nevrofenomenološkem kontekstu [15, 17], je opisno vzorčenje Sprotna do ivl a s a

Sprotna anali a

izkustva (OVI) [18, 19]. Sestavni del tehnike OVI sta naključno anali a

ED

vzorčenje doživljanja in kasnejši fenomenološki intervjuji, pri enomenolo i

čemer sta tako spraševanje kot tudi poročanje o doživljanju interv u i

smatrana za spretnosti, v katerih se je potrebno uriti [19].

Za razumevanje nevrološke podstati doživljajskih stanj se

Do ivl a s a anali a

nali a ED

pogosto uporabljajo mere delovanja avtonomnega živčnega

sistema (AŽS), kot je npr. elektrodermalna aktivnost (EDA) [20],

Nevrofenomenolo a anali a

[21, 22]. EDA je produkt interakcije lokalnih procesov v koži in



delovanja simpatičnega dela AŽS ter se navadno uporablja kot

indikator vzburjenosti, čustev in stresa [24, 25]. Različne mere Slika 1: Shema poteka raziskave

sinhronizacije EDA med več udeleženci so se nedavno uveljavile

kot učinkovit pokazatelj skupinskih dinamik, povezanih npr. z 2.2 Udeleženci

empatijo [26], s povezanostjo med govorniki in občinstvom [27]

V raziskavi je sodelovalo petnajst udeležencev (enajst žensk; ter s povečano slušno osredotočenostjo [28]; pa tudi skupinskih povprečna starost = 27,0 let; SD = 7,4) od tega štirinajst dinamik, ki se oblikujejo v učnem okolju, npr. nižja vključenost študentov in en izvajalec. Izvajalec je imel večletne izkušnje z v učni proces [29], mentalni napori skupine [30] in čustvena raziskovanjem doživljanja, študenti pa so pred raziskavo opravili atmosfera [27]. Kljub obetavnim rezultatom pa doslej še ni bilo trening vzorčenja doživljanja in izvajanja fenomenoloških

opravljene študije, ki bi mero EDA na nevrofenomenološki način

intervjujev. Po vzoru tehnike OVI [19] je vsak študent vzorčil združila s sodobno metodo za pridobivanje prvoosebnih

doživljanje vsaj 9 dni, pridobil vsaj 39 vzorcev, bil intervjuvan o podatkov, kot je npr. tehnika OVI.

vsaj 15 svojih vzorcih in opravil intervju o vsaj 15 vzorcih V nadaljevanju predstavimo preliminarne rezultate

nekoga drugega. Pred prvim srečanjem so bili udeleženci

eksploratorne nevrofenomenološke raziskave, v kateri smo na seznanjeni z raziskavo, pridobljeno pa je bilo tudi njihovo ekološko veljaven način preučevali doživljanje in EDA

soglasje za sodelovanje. Udeleženci so lahko s sodelovanjem v

udeležencev v spletnem učnem okolju. Odgovoriti smo želeli na

raziskavi opravili del obveznosti pri študiju.

štiri raziskovalna vprašanja: (RV1) Kaj doživljajo študenti in izvajalci tekom spletnih predavanj? (RV2) Ali lahko ob istih 2.3 Pripomočki in tehnike

časovnih trenutkih prepoznamo skupinske dinamike na

Za merjenje EDA je bil uporabljen brezžični nadlahtni merilnik

doživljajskem nivoju? (RV3) Ali se med udeleženimi v učnem

BodyMedia SenseWear. Merilnik je beležil EDA štirikrat na procesu tekom spletnih predavanj pojavljajo skupinske dinamike

minuto in shranjeval podatke v interni spomin.

oziroma sinhronizacije na nivoju EDA? (RV4) Ali obstajajo Prvoosebni podatki so bili pridobljeni s tehniko vzorčenja povezave med doživljanjem in EDA udeleženih v učnem

doživljanja, osnovano na tehniki OVI [19]. Signal za vzorčenje procesu?

je sprožila aplikacija, naključno v intervalu od 5 do 15 minut. Za vzorčenje je bil uporabljen vprašalnik, ki se je delno razlikoval med pilotnim in ostalimi srečanji. Na pilotnem so udeleženci 2 METODA

poročali o kontekstu in doživljanju v zadnjem trenutku pred signalom za vzorčenje, podali pa so lahko tudi komentar in 2.1 Oris raziskave

opazke o doživljanju pred tem. Na vseh ostalih srečanjih so Raziskava je vključevala štiri spletna srečanja (pilotno in tri udeleženci poročali o istih postavkah kot na pilotnem srečanju in raziskovalna)

v

okviru

predavanj

na

skupnem

dodatno o doživljanju, ki je bilo v zadnjem trenutku pred Interdisciplinarnem srednjeevropskem magistrskem študijskem

signalom za vzorčenje v ospredju, podali pa so tudi odgovor na

programu Kognitivna znanost (MEi:CogSci). Sodelovanje v

dve vprašanji z vnaprej predvidenimi odgovori. Pri prvem so raziskavi je bilo izrazito aktivno oziroma participatorno. Med označili stopnjo, do katere so bili v trenutku vzorčenja vpeti v srečanjem so udeleženci vzorčili doživljanje in merili EDA, po

vsebino predavanja (označili so lahko: aktivna vpetost, vpetost, srečanju pa so opravili fenomenološke intervjuje o izbranih delna vpetost, delna odsotnost, odsotnost ali drugo), pri drugem vzorcih in krajšo sprotno analizo. Fazi zbiranja podatkov je pa vrsto socialnega doživljanja, ki je bila takrat prisotna (označili sledila obširnejša analiza, v načrtu pa imamo opraviti še so lahko: brez socialnega doživljanja, preverjanje doživljanja nevrofenomenološko analizo, v kateri bo izveden poskus

drugih, občutek kolektivnega doživljanja, socialno uravnavanje integracije prvoosebnih in tretjeosebnih podatkov. Splošno

ali drugo).

shemo poteka raziskave prikazuje Slika 1.

Doživljajski vzorci so bili razširjeni in preverjeni s tehniko fenomenološkega intervjuja, osnovano delno na ekspozicijskem

[26] in delno na mikrofenomenološkem [31] intervjuju.



6





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2.4 Postopek

(dvominutni odsek) po eno meritev naprej, dokler nismo obdelali

vseh dvajsetih meritev (petminutni odsek).

Vsa srečanja so potekala na spletni platformi Zoom. Pilotno srečanje je bilo namenjeno spoznavanju protokola raziskave in

raziskovanega pojava, testiranju uporabljene tehnologije ter 3 REZULTATI

natančni specifikaciji raziskovalnih vprašanj. Na podlagi

podatkov, pridobljenih na pilotnem srečanju, je bil oblikovan Cilj raziskave je bil opisati doživljajsko pokrajino udeležencev vprašalnik za vzorčenje doživljanja.

med spletnimi predavanji (RV1) in preveriti, ali se na



Na začetku vsakega srečanja so si udeleženci namestili

doživljajskem (RV2) in psihofiziološkem (RV3) nivoju, ter na merilnik za merjenje EDA, sledili sta dve minuti mirovanja, nato obeh nivojih skupaj (RV4), porajajo skupinske dinamike. V

se je začelo predavanje. Tekom predavanja se je od pet do nadaljevanju predstavimo preliminarne rezultate, ki se

šestkrat predvajal zvočni signal, po katerem so imeli udeleženci navezujejo na RV1, RV2 in RV3.

na voljo eno do dve minuti za vzorčenje doživljanja. Po srečanju so udeleženci zbrane podatke naložili na spletni repozitorij.

3.1 Doživljanje udeležencev (RV1)



Študenti so v času do tri dni po vsakem srečanju izvedli Kot je razvidno iz Slike 2, je doživljajska analiza pokazala, da sprotno analizo prvoosebnih in tretjeosebnih podatkov, med lahko doživljanje udeležencev (izvajalca in študentov) tekom tremi do šestimi dnevi po srečanju pa še fenomenološke

spletnih predavanj opišemo s štirimi krovnimi kategorijami, intervjuje o izbranih doživljajskih vzorcih. O vsakem intervjuju vezanimi na osredotočenost in socialno doživljanje.

so zapisali kratko poročilo.

topnja vpetosti v

ranzi ija med

topnja

smerjenost

vse ino predavanja stopnjami vpetosti

večopravilnosti

pozornosti

2.5 Analiza

tivna vpetost

Pos us

o usirana

smer enost

fo usiran a

po ornost

nav ven

Analizo podatkov smo izvajali med in po koncu zbiranja

a pr ena

smer enost

podatkov. Glavni cilj analize je bil prepoznavanje vzorcev, ki Pasivna vpetost

o usiran e

po ornost

nav noter

namigujejo na obstoj skupinskih dinamik.

Odsotnost

pad fo usa

Sprotna analiza. Sprotna analiza podatkov EDA je vključevala vizualno identifikacijo sinhronizacij v signalih, sprotna analiza doživljajskih podatkov pa primerjavo vzorcev in

Slika 2: Hierarhija izbranih doživljajskih kategorij

preliminarno kategorizacijo. Izsledki sprotnih analiz so

Stopnja vpetosti v vsebino predavanja. Nekateri študenti so informirali nadaljnje faze raziskovanja in analize.

se v trenutku vzorčenja aktivno ukvarjali z relevantno vsebino ali

Doživljajska analiza. Primarne podatke za doživljajsko pa so kako drugače izkazovali zanimanje zanjo; poročali so npr.

analizo so predstavljali odgovori na odprto vprašanje o

o vizualizaciji in interpretaciji relevantnih konceptov,

doživljanju v zadnjem trenutku pred signalom za vzorčenje, povezovanju z obstoječim znanjem, pa tudi o pričakovanju odgovori na ostale postavke vprašalnika in poročila o intervjujih sledeče vsebine. Tako je zapisala Mara 3 : “Slušno zaznavam pa so služili dodatnemu preverjanju. Analiza je potekala po vzoru besede [izvajalca], subtilno si predstavljam nadaljnji potek smernic za doživljajsko [32] in kvalitativno analizo [33, 34].

predavanja, kot ga opisuje, na način, da interpretiram pomen Najprej smo označili »satelitske« [31] dimenzije doživljanja, besed v nesimbolnih mislih.” Izvajalec je sicer zmeraj aktivno nato pa z induktivnim pristopom odprtega kodiranja [33]

posredoval vsebino, a je včasih vseeno poročal o večjem

vsakemu vzorcu pripisali kategorije prvega reda. S primerjalno

zanimanju. Takšne primere smo imenovali aktivna vpetost ( n =

analizo smo prvotne kategorije po potrebi prilagodili, oblikovali 88). Včasih so študenti vsebino predavanja sicer zaznavali, a ne višjenivojske kategorije in dobljene kategorije definirali. Na tako pozorno in z njo niso ničesar aktivno počeli. Tudi izvajalec koncu smo izbrali tiste kategorije, ki so bile najpogostejše in/ali je včasih poročal o manjši zbranosti ali naveličanosti. Takšne najbolj relevantne z vidika zastavljenih raziskovalnih vprašanj.

primere smo uvrstili v podkategorijo pasivna vpetost ( n = 50).

Analiza EDA. Analiza EDA je vključevala izračun Nazadnje smo prepoznali tudi več primerov odsotnosti ( n = 30), sinhronizacij med pari udeležencev (od tu naprej parnih

ko v doživljajskih pokrajinah študentov ni bilo mogoče zaznati

sinhronizacij) in izračun povprečnih parnih sinhronizacij (PPS)

vsebine predavanja, izvajalec pa je poročal npr. o zmedenosti.

različnih skupin: (1) skupin vsaj treh med seboj sinhroniziranih



Tranzicija med stopnjami vpetosti. Doživljanje udeležencev udeležencev ( r ≥ 0,40)1 ; (2) vnaprej definiranih skupin (vsi se je včasih nanašalo na prehodne faze med stopnjami vpetosti v udeleženci; samo študenti; izvajalec z vsakim študentom).

vsebino predavanja. Nekateri udeleženci so v trenutku vzorčenja Petminutne odseke signalov EDA2, ki so bili posneti v času

poročali o poskusu fokusiranja ( n = 19) oziroma prizadevanju za pred vzorčenjem doživljanja, smo ročno pregledali in odstranili

aktivnejšo vpetost v vsebino predavanja. Mara je na primer takšne, ki so vsebovali artefakte [24]. Pred nadaljnjo analizo smo zapisala: “Doživljam težnjo po poglobitvi pozornosti na

dobljene signale standardizirali. Za izračun parnih sinhronizacij predavanje.” Drugi so težnjo po fokusiranju že začeli udejanjati smo uporabili prilagojen algoritem Marci in Orra [26].

– signal za vzorčenje jih je ujel v procesu fokusiranja ( n = 15), Sinhronizacijo EDA enega para pri enem vzorčenju smo

ko so pozornost že preusmerjali na vsebino predavanja. Spet izračunali kot povprečje dvanajstih Pearsonovih korelacij,

drugi so poročali o pravkaršnjemu upadu fokusa ( n =19), bodisi pridobljenih s pomikanjem tekočega okna dolžine osmih meritev

zaradi utrujenosti, zaspanosti, lakote ali naveličanosti.



1 Kriterij r ≥ 0,40 razumemo kot spodnjo mejo srednje močne korelacije [23].

3 Izseki, ki jih podajamo ob opisih kategorij, so urejeni tako, da ne razkrivajo 2 Doživljajski podatki so bili omejeni izključno na zadnji trenutek pred signalom za identitet udeležencev in so po potrebi osnovno lektorirani.

vzorčenje, zato v analizi EDA nismo upoštevali celih signalov, ampak zgolj petminutne odseke, ki so bili posneti pred vzorčenjem doživljanja.



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Stopnja večopravilnosti. Doživljanje udeležencev je bilo drugem (šest vzorčenj) deset in na tretjem (pet vzorčenj) devet.

mogoče razdeliti tudi glede na številčnost aktivnosti, na katere so Sinhronizirane skupine se niso ohranjale prek več vzorčenj enega bili pozorni. Včasih so bili osredotočeni le na vsebino predavanja srečanja. Najvišja PPS je znašala 0,78 (tretje vzorčenje tretjega

– takšne primere smo imenovali fokusirana pozornost ( n = 15).

srečanja), povprečje PPS vseh skupin pa je bilo 0,62 ( SD = 0,08).

Med njimi najdemo zapis Mare: “Sem v stanju pričakovanja, Pri vnaprej definiranih skupinah smo največjo skupinsko

občutim radovednost kot željo po razjasnitvi pojma

dinamiko opazili na prvem srečanju, kjer je bila PPS vseh izomorfizem.” Občasno so bili udeleženci, npr. Zoja, poleg udeležencev 0,20 ( SD = 0,54), vseh študentov 0,14 ( SD = 0,53), predavanja osredotočeni še na kaj drugega: “Poslušam in zdi se

izvajalca s študenti pa 0,40 ( SD = 0,58). Pri drugem vzorčenju je mi (čutim), da vem, o čem predavatelj govori [...]. Moja bila PPS vseh udeležencev 0,19 ( SD = 0,29), vseh študentov 0,17

pozornost je sicer rahlo razpršena – misli mi tavajo na več ( SD = 0,30), izvajalca s študenti pa 0,29 ( SD = 0,22). Pri zadnjih koncev, predvsem preverjam, kaj vse moram še danes narediti.”

treh vzorčenjih se je PPS gibala okrog 0. Na drugem srečanju Takšne primere smo označili z razpršeno pozornostjo ( n = 16).

smo prepoznali manj očitne skupinske dinamike. Pri prvem

Usmerjenost pozornosti. Doživljanja udeležencev so včasih vzorčenju je PPS izvajalca s študenti znašala 0,17 ( SD = 0,55), zaznamovali občutki, vezani na druge (virtualno) prisotne na pri drugem 0,15 ( SD = 0,38) in pri šestem prav tako 0,15 ( SD =

srečanju; udeleženci so se zavedali drugih, skušali so ugotoviti, 0,29). Pri četrtem vzorčenju je znašala PPS vseh udeležencev kaj drugi doživljajo, ali pa so jih opazovali na Zoomu. Te primere 0,12 ( SD = 0,37), vseh študentov pa 0,16 ( SD = 0, 38). Sicer se smo združili v podkategorijo usmerjenost navzven ( n = 44). Toda je PPS gibala okrog 0. Na tretjem srečanju nismo prepoznali PPS

socialnega doživljanja ni bilo zmeraj zaznati; včasih so

večjih od 0. Za vsa tri srečanja je povprečje PPS vseh udeleženci opazovali svoje doživljanje, izvajali samorefleksijo, udeležencev znašalo 0,04 ( SD = 0,07), vseh študentov 0,03 ( SD

ali pa se samoopazovali na Zoomu . Takšne zapise smo označili

= 0,10) in izvajalca s študenti 0,05 ( SD = 0,15).

z usmerjenostjo navznoter ( n = 27).

3.2 Doživljajske skupinske dinamike (RV2)

4 DISKUSIJA

Skupinsko dinamiko na doživljajskem nivoju smo definirali kot

V prispevku smo pokazali, da se tudi v spletnem učnem okolju,

skupino treh ali več udeležencev, katerih istočasno podane kjer udeleženci niso fizično prisotni, tvorijo doživljajski in vzorce doživljanja smo uvrstili v isto podkategorijo (glej Sliko

psihofiziološki vzorci koordiniranega delovanja tako med

2). Skupno smo prepoznali 56 primerov skupinskih dinamik, od študenti kot med študenti in izvajalcem. Da bi videli, ali se tega 19 za prvo, 19 za drugo in 18 za tretje srečanje. 40-krat so prepoznane skupinske dinamike porajajo na obeh nivojih hkrati,

skupinske dinamike tvorili študenti, 16-krat pa študenti in bomo v naslednjem koraku izvedli nevrofenomenološko analizo,

izvajalec. Najpogosteje so bile skupinske dinamike vezane na v kateri bomo izsledke neodvisne doživljajske analize preverili z podkategorijo aktivna vpetost ( n = 18). Najbolj opazno dodatno analizo EDA in izsledke neodvisne analize EDA z

usklajenost smo prepoznali pri petem vzorčenju tretjega srečanja, dodatno doživljajsko analizo. Upamo, da bodo končni rezultati

ko so tako izvajalec kot sedem študentov sočasno poročali o poglobili razumevanje skupinskih dinamik, ki se tvorijo v aktivni vpetosti. Izvajalec je takrat zapisal: “Stanje zaganjanja v spletnem učnem okolju. Ker so določene skupinske dinamike predavateljski tok – ne še čisto tam. Tokrat je nemir v ozadju povezane z akademsko uspešnostjo [1, 35, 36], upamo, da bodo močnejši, je pa tudi višja energija – bolj aktivno 'sodelujem' pri naši rezultati pripomogli tudi k izboljšanju učnih pristopov.

oblikovanju predavanja.” Ena izmed študentk, Ajša, pa je Določene pomanjkljivosti raziskave najdemo v načinu

poročala: “Zanimanje za to, kar [izvajalec] govori, kar sem čutila izvedbe, uporabljeni tehnologiji in izbrani metodi. Prvič, dejstvo, kot željo, da si o tem kaj napišem ter da slišim vse, kar izreče, da da je bila raziskava izvedena v naravnem okolju je po eni strani ne izgubim toka govora.”

povečalo njeno ekološko veljavnost, po drugi strani pa otežilo Skupinske dinamike so se tekom vzorčenj posameznega

posploševanje zaradi nezmožnosti zagotavljanja univerzalnosti srečanja sistematično spreminjale. Denimo na prvem srečanju eksperimentalnega okolja. Drugič, merilnik, s katerim smo

smo pri četrtem vzorčenju zaznali splošen upad osredotočenosti

pridobivali podatke EDA, je namenjen za uporabo na nadlahti, ki

tako pri izvajalcu kot pri študentih. Do tretjega vzorčenja so je optimalna lokacija z vidika nizke invazivnosti, ne pa tudi z izvajalec in večina študentov ( M = 9,3; SD = 2,3) poročali o vidika pridobivanja podrobnih podatkov o psihofiziološkem

aktivni vpetosti, manj študentov pa je poročalo o pasivni vpetosti stanju uporabnika [24, 37]. Tretjič, podatke o psihofiziologiji ( M = 2,7; SD = 2,4) in odsotnosti ( n = 1). Zatem izvajalec ni več smo pridobivali zgolj s pomočjo mere EDA, medtem ko bi lahko

poročal o aktivni vpetosti, prav tako je o njej poročalo bistveno kombinirana uporaba več senzorjev psihofiziologije omogočila

manj študentov ( M = 5,0; SD = 0,0), število tistih, ki so bili podrobnejši uvid v delovanje AŽS [38]. Četrtič, doživljajski pasivno vpeti ( M = 5,0; SD = 2,0) v vsebino predavanja, ali so vzorci so bili mestoma premalo natančni, fenomenološki

bili odsotni ( M = 3,0; SD = 0,0), pa se je dvignila. Izvajalec je intervjuji, s katerimi smo reševali ta problem, pa so bili takrat zapisal: “Čutim se odsotnega, avtomatično govorjenje –

opravljeni le o izbranih vzorcih in včasih šele tretji dan po tema mi je dolgočasna, rad bi, da jo čim prej zrecitiram, da grem srečanju, kar je otežilo priklic informacij iz spomina. Izvajanje naprej na bolj zanimivo vsebino.”

intervjujev o vseh vzorcih v krajšem času od vzorčenja bi po drugi strani bistveno povečalo že tako visoke zahteve, ki jih je 3.3 Psihofiziološke skupinske dinamike (RV3)

raziskava polagala na pleča udeležencev.

Analiza podatkov EDA je pokazala skupno 25 skupin s tremi ali

Metodološki izziv za prihodnje raziskave je torej najti način,

več medsebojno parno sinhroniziranimi člani. Na prvem srečanju

kako sočasno zagotoviti visoko ekološko veljavnost in

(pet vzorčenj) smo prepoznali šest sinhroniziranih skupin, na univerzalnost okoljskih dejavnikov, kako sočasno zadovoljiti potrebo po nizki invazivnosti in visoki odzivnosti merilnikov 8

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psihofiziologije, ter kako uskladiti potrebe po pridobivanju resting-state experience in the scanner. Frontiers in psychology 6, 1535, podrobnih in veljavnih prvoosebnih podatkov na način, ki ne bo

(Oktober, 2015). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01535

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Russell T. Hurlburt, Ben Alderson-Day, Simone Kühn in Charles pretirano zahteven za udeležence.

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[19]

Russell T. Hurlburt, Sharon Jones-Forrester (Sod.), Michael J. Kane merilniki in vsem študentom za potrpežljivo ter vse prej kot (Sod.), Ricardo Cobo (Sod.), Sarah A. Akhter (Sod.), Chris Heavey (Sod.) in Arva Bensaheb (Sod.). 2011. Investigating pristine inner experience: pasivno sodelovanje v raziskavi.

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9





The ONE-ness of change: An exploratory

neurophenomenological single case study on change in

mood

Tine Kolenik†,*



Jaya Caporusso*

Department of Intelligent Systems

MEi:CogSci

Jožef Stefan Institute



University of Vienna

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Vienna, Austria

tine.kolenik@ijs.si



jaya.caporusso96@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

The process of change is universally referred to when explaining 1 INTRODUCTION

the human psyche in the domain of attitude and behavior change.

Established research on the mind related to human change However, change is either presumed to simply exist without processes, also referred to as attitude and behavior change, further elaboration, or it is reduced to neurobiological processes.

presumes change simply exists, without any further elaboration.

While there is a substantial effort to detect, forecast and induce Implicitly, researchers treat change as dark matter: there is state change, especially in the mental health-related fields, the results of interest SA at a time t, state of interest SB at time t+1, and what have been mixed so far. Understanding what change is is happens in between is magic [1-4].1 When change is defined, therefore crucial. Data on first-person experience has been thus albeit rarely, it falls into reductionist pits, being reduced to far absent from studying change, which may turn out to be a neurobiological processes [5], or it is defined functionally, where deciding oversight. This exploratory study employs the

change equals SB less SA, especially in quantitative research.

framework of neurophenomenology to explore the process of Thus, research is mostly concerned with how to drive SA to SB, change from multiple perspectives. In this circularly informing tackling questions such as “What motivates change?”, “How is

research process, we used ecological momentary assessment to

change implemented?”, “How is change sustained?”, “When to

gather daily questionnaire and diary data on mood. Afterward, induce change?”, and similar [1-4]. What surprisingly lacks from we selected a single case, and determined the moment of change

this list is a bit more intimate and primary: What is change?

in mood through an inter-methodological agreement using

The question is neither trivial nor unimportant. Various

qualitative and computational methods. Lastly, we conducted domains interested in change - from mental health [4] to green phenomenological interviews to study change on the experiential

behavior [6] - are facing a considerable obstacle when trying to level. We found that while there may be inter-methodological detect, forecast and induce (desired) change [7]. Physiological agreement on the moment of change, different levels of analysis

(e.g., sensors) and psychological (e.g., questionnaires) tools have (operational, narrative, experiential - ONE) establish different been used to this end, but have produced mixed results, definitional aspects, whereas the existence of change on the especially on longer scales [8]. What is more, it seems that experiential level is unclear. It was ambiguous whether the same cognitive science is still in its infancy when studying change.

phenomenon was studied even after inter-methodological

Analogies can be found in both extreme levels of analysis. In agreement. Further intersubjective research is needed to explore physics, classical thermodynamics ignored the process of change, the phenomenon further.

and it was only non-equilibrium thermodynamics that started to

consider change as a fundamental process as opposed to only KEYWORDS

studying substances [9]. In philosophy, process philosophy faced ecological momentary assessment, empirical phenomenology,

Plato’s claim on change as illusionary, and stood against the human change processes, idiographic computational dynamics, classical philosophical view of ontology [10]. Post-cognitivist mental

health,

natural

language

processing,

paradigms in cognitive science provided a similar opposure, neurophenomenology

especially dynamical systems theory (e.g., psychotherapy [7]). In behavioral sciences, the study of persuasion is starting to brush against the notion of what change might be [11].

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or Another consequence of the prolificacy of post-cognitivist classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full paradigms was the introduction of first-person experience [12] as citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must an essential aspect of studying the mind. Expectedly, empirical

be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

phenomenology [13, 14] has so far eluded inclusion into the Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia science of change, an oversight which might have hurt its efforts.

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

* The authors contributed equally to this work.

1 Please note that throughout the text we use “state A” and “state B” to delineate, respectively, the state before change and the state after change. However, the different instances of “state A” and “state B” do not necessarily correspond.

10

First-person experience reports might uncover experiential RQ2: What are the properties of change that are discerned (or patterns that may thus prove to be an invaluable tool for constructed) by various methods and where do they diverge?

answering the questions on change. Phenomenological

Are they addressing and describing the same phenomenon?

interviews in particular are often focused on the “transitions between different phases [in time of an experience]” [15, p. 6], RQ1 is concerned with the level of methodological agreement

and could therefore elucidate the nature of the magic happening that change occurred in a selected moment in time. RQ2 is between two states. However, to our knowledge, no empirical concerned with how change can be described when using specific

phenomenological study investigated the experience of change,

methods, how the latter influence the definition, and whether the that is, no empirical phenomenological study aimed at an phenomenon they ultimately research is the same.

accurate phenomenological description of how it is to experience The research questions specific to the phenomenological

change per se (for a study on the experiential nature of the investigation were informed by time series data.

transition between two sequential moments, see [16]).

This exploratory study therefore aimed to spur non-

pRQ1: Was change experienced at any point of the

reductionist research on the fundamental nature of what change

investigated episode?

is (see section Outline of the research framework for details). The general domain of mental health offers an appropriate context to pRQ2: What is the experiential difference between the state study change, because it makes it salient. We focus on change in before and the state after the change?

mood, which is not only ubiquitous, but also one of the primary



concerns in mental health. We followed neurophenomenology

These RQs cannot be addressed through the results only due

[17] on combining first-person and third-person methodologies

to the exploratory nature of the work. We thus partially address with mutual constraints, and used ecological momentary

them in the Discussion section as well.

assessment (EMA) to collect daily quantitative and qualitative data on mood as well as conducted phenomenological interviews

on selected data.

3 METHODOLOGY

To pursue the research questions, we employed a mixed-methods

methodology, using quantitative data collected from daily

2 OUTLINE OF THE RESEARCH

questionnaires, text data collected from daily diary entries, and FRAMEWORK

first-person experiential data collected with phenomenological The highly exploratory nature of this research is two-fold: 1) its interviews. Due to the circular informing that occurred between

object of inquiry is on the one hand ubiquitous and on the other these data that guided the research, we have adopted the hand definitionally very vacuous; and 2) the mutual-informing of framework of neurophenomenology, where “‘neuro’ refers [...]

the methods used has been untested so far. Since our

to the entire array of scientific correlates which are relevant to presupposition is that change is fundamentally a dynamical cognitive science” [17, p. 330].

process, we rely on collecting time series and diachronic data.

To be able to study change ecologically, occurring in the wild

Due to the human idiography [18], this touches the framework of

as much as possible, we followed the EMA framework, which small or personalized data [19], where inter-human variance and

involves "repeated sampling of subjects’ current behaviors and noise are reinterpreted and feature as important data. Following experiences in real time, in subjects’ natural environments", this, our framework investigates a moment in time with

which aims to "minimize recall bias, maximize ecological dynamics-sensitive methods on various levels of analysis. What

validity, and allow study of microprocesses that influence is sought is inter-methodological agreement, and descriptions of behavior in real-world contexts" [20, p. 1].

the phenomenon on various levels of analysis. Once the latter are gathered, the unified definitional outlines can occur.

3.1 Materials

For this study, we are focusing on a single case, and within

We used the 10-item international Positive and Negative Affect

this single case, on a single identified unity of data. We believe Schedule Short Form (I-PANAS-SF) in English [21] to collect methodological pluralism is necessary to explore this

daily mood data. I-PANAS-SF evaluates the following moods in

phenomenon. Note that this research is not executed sequentially, a desired time span (in our case, daily) on a 5-point Likert scale: as various types of data inform one another and the direction of Afraid (AF), Alert (AL), Determined (DE), Distressed (DI), the research [17]. The decision on the context of mood was made

Enthusiastic (EN), Excited (EX), Inspired (IN), Nervous (NE), due to the ubiquity of it, and the importance of change processes Scared (SC), Upset (UP).

in mental health. We note that change may not be invariant in To collect the diary entry data, guidelines suggested to the co-every context.

researchers (see [22] for the use of the term co-researcher) to focus on the descriptions of mood, the effects of mood on the 2.1 Research Questions

experiences of themselves and the world, the change of the latter This work pursues the following research questions:

from the previous day to the present day, and on any salient factual information about the day (for more, see Supplementary

RQ1: What is the inter-level agreement between various materials, section Diary entry guidelines).

methods with which change can be detected?





11

3.2 Sample and Case



SD/ MAD bounds represent the baseline, which means that The sample included seven people, largely acquaintances of the

between a data point falling outside of these bounds while the authors, from which a single person was arbitrarily selected, preceding data point was inside the bounds change occurred, and

codenamed as Quentin. Our co-researcher was 30 years old at the

vice versa. If inside the baseline, change can still occur, but it has end of the data collection phase, biologically assigned at birth as to be bigger than one SD/ MAD.

male and identifying as a man and as non-binary, with a master’s To apply this calculation to the data, it has to be preprocessed, degree. He was of somewhat good mental health, had never been

extracting the described values.

diagnosed with a mental disorder, did not have mental health-This computational definition of change is independent of the

related therapy in the recent past, and was not taking any mental context (in our case, mood).

health-related medications. He slept seven hours on average per

night and had bad sleep quality. He was generally a positive 3.5 Empirical Phenomenology

person who felt neutral about his emotional arousal or did not identify with having positive or negative emotional arousal. His We included empirical phenomenology as a method to obtain experience with phenomenological reporting amounted to

data on experience. Empirical phenomenology, based on the around 70 hours.

concept of epoché [26], allows to get descriptions of how the investigated episodes and phenomena are actually lived. It 3.3 Data Collection

excludes the possible narratives, conceptualizations, and

judgements that might be constructed after the experience per se.

We used the Synergetic Navigation System (SNS), a web- and In particular, we opted for an interviewing approach based on the mobile-based technology for EMA [23], to collect questionnaire

micro-phenomenological

interview

method

[24].

The

and diary data, and conducted in-depth phenomenological

interviewer non-suggestively accompanies the interviewee in interviews based on micro-phenomenology [24] to collect

providing accurate phenomenological descriptions of the

experiential data. The data was collected from June 24th to July diachronic (temporal unfolding) and synchronic (non-temporal 14th 2021. The SNS data on a given day was collected from dimension, associated with a specific moment or phase) structure 18:00 onwards on the same day or in the morning of the of the experience. For these reasons, empirical phenomenology

following day. Quentin was notified at the starting hour of data allowed us to investigate how it is to experience change. The collection through email and mobile push notifications. The interviewing was informed by our research questions, and the interviews were recorded with a Samsung Galaxy A41.

interviews were conducted after change had already been

3.4 Computational Definition of Change

partially identified (see Results, Subsection Identifying the moment of change).

To detect change in quantitative data, change had to first be defined methodologically. Since quantitative data are generally

3.6 Collected Data

analyzed computationally, we present a computational definition

Quentin completed 16 questionnaires and provided 16 diary of change which was applied to the data. We computationally entries between June 24th and July 14th 2021. The mean of defined (inspired from sudden gains literature [11] and anomaly

Quentin’s diary entries was 195 words. Furthermore, three in-detection [25]) that change C between data point or state A ( SA) depth phenomenological interviews were conducted on the

at time t and data point or state B ( SB) at time t+1 occurs if selected moment within the time series data (see Results, subsection Identifying the moment of change), clocking

(((SB > (M + SD/MAD)) || (SB < (M − SD/MAD))) & ((M −

00:43:33, 01:00:51, 1:09:41 in length, respectively. The

SD/MAD) < SA < (M + SD/MAD)))



(1)

interviews are being transcribed verbatim.

||

4 RESULTS

(((SA > (M + SD/MAD)) | (SA < (M − SD/MAD))) & ((M −

This section presents the analysis of the collected data. For SD/MAD) < SB < (M + SD/MAD)))



(2)

computational analysis of the time series data, features were extracted in order to calculate whether and when change had

||

occurred. Change was already defined computationally for the time series in the previous section. Phenomenological results (ΔC > SD/MAD)





(3)

present the effort to identify change experientially, without a definition pre-given by the authors.

where M equals the mean value of the entire time series and standard deviation ( SD) is used if the data is normally distributed, 4.1 Feature Extraction

and median and mean average deviation ( MAD) is used if the data is not normally distributed. It denotes that change occurs:

Features extracted from the quantitative questionnaire scores included: the mean and SD of a given mood category if the a) if SB falls outside of bounds of SD/ MAD while SA falls inside (Equation (1)); or

distribution was normal; and the median and MAD if the

b) if S

distribution was non-normal. We performed a normalcy test to A falls outside of bounds of SD/ MAD while SB falls inside (Equation (2)); or

discern that. Instances with missing questionnaire data were c) if both are inside the SD/ MAD bounds, S

filled with last collected data scores.

B is more than one

SD/ MAD away from SA (Equation (3)).

12



Features extracted from the diaries included sentiment

graphs for mood graphs with detected change. Figure 1 presents

analysis features and statistical features of sentiment features.

one such graph, signifying the change in EN.

We used VADER, “a lexicon and rule-based

sentiment analysis tool,” [27, para. 1] to get negative

and positive sentiment scores for each daily diary

entry. Afterward, we extracted statistical features

following the same process as for the quantitative

questionnaire scores. Instances with missing diary

data and therefore missing sentiment scores were

linearly interpolated.

4.2 Identifying the Moment of Change

To identify the moment of change and address RQ1,

several steps were taken. Authors studied the data,

particularly reading the diary entries, and asked

Quentin to propose a data instance where he felt an

instance of change had occurred. Quentin suggested the data Figure 1: Detected change in the Enthusiastic mood

instance from July 1st, 2021. This is the selected data instance: category from 30. 06. 2021 to 01. 07. 2021.





Table 1: Quentin’s mood scores on July 1st 2021 (see full

Furthermore, change was detected in both the positive and names in this subsection, para. 5).

negative sentiment scores from the diary entries. See

DI AF

UP

NE

SC

IN AL

EX

EN

DE

Supplementary material, section Sentiment graphs for sentiment

1

1

1

1

1

5

5

5

5

5

graphs.



The results show maximum inter-methodological agreement.

For the selected diary entry (DiaryE0) and the data from the

Every part of the two data streams that could have possibly previous day, see Supplementary material, section Diary entries

validated the initial identification of change had validated it. The and quantitative questionnaire mood scores. The text part next step was to see whether change occurred in the selected (pDiaryE0) containing the description of change can be read moment on the experiential level.

below:



4.3 Phenomenological Results

I saw myself as important, I was very self-confident. This To identify the moment of change to be investigated in the brought about a certain feeling, a certain change in the air interviews, we analyzed the fragment of the co-researcher’s diary around me. [...] people listening to me [...] had this entry in which the selected episode is described (pDiaryE0 below directionality towards me which gave me some sort of power.

Table 1). We identified two possible instances of change: one in Compared to yesterday, when I also felt inspired and the third sentence, and the other in the last sentence. We decided enthusiastic, today I had this huge undertone of confidence, to focus on the first one, as it seemed to have had occurred at a and this caused a difference especially in how I perceived specific point in time, and it was therefore possible to investigate others.

it with phenomenological interviews.



We present the provisional results of the phenomenological Quentin confirmed this is a good example of change

investigation. On the 1st July 2021, our co-researcher, Quentin, occurring during the data collection. The authors had beforehand was giving a lecture at a seminar. He was sitting at a desk in a identified the same data instance as a potentially good candidate.

lecture hall, and he was talking to the people in front of him. He The change specifically referred to the particular confidence initially felt a self-confined confidence that later changed into a (“Compared to yesterday, […] today I had this huge undertone new confidence. We summarize the experiential categories that

of confidence” ). The state of the mood before the change (or State were different from before (state A) to after the change (state B) A) was therefore either no confidence or a different kind of in Figure 2 (pRQ2).

confidence, coupled with inspiration and enthusiasm, and the In between state A and state B, Quentin noticed a ray of state of the mood after the change was the newly found sunshine filtering through the air. He felt like his arms had the confidence (or State B).

potentiality to move more freely in that direction, experienced as For inter-methodological agreement on the moment of

a sense of brightness on their upper left part. This aspect was part change, the computational method for detecting change (see of the new confidence, which was not fully present yet. Quentin

Methodology, subsection Computational definition of change) realized that this brightness was something new ((1) in Figure 2).

was applied to two data streams, the quantitative questionnaire

Quentin felt a ball-like entity in his chest, which expanded until scores (all the 10 mood categories) and the diary entries.

it reached the audience. It is at this point that the experience For the quantitative questionnaire scores, change was

reached state B, where Quentin felt the full new confidence.

detected in 7 out of 10 mood categories (AL, DE, DI, EN, EX,

Quentin had the knowledge that the way he was perceiving and

IN, UP). The three categories where change was not detected could interact with people had changed ((2) in Figure 2).

(AF, NE, SC) were stationary, which means that there were no

changing curves. See Supplementary material, section Mood

13





Table 2: Models of experiential change.

1) Change is not present at all

at the level of experience.



2) Change is the experiential

nature of the experiential flow

in which state A and state B



succeed each other.

Figure 2: Experiential structure (diachronic and



synchronic) of the target episode.

3) Between state A and state B

there is a state C where change

5 DISCUSSION

is experienced.



5.1 The ONE-ness of Change

4) a) Change is an experiential

While discussing the data from the different methods, we element present in both state A

specified incongruencies between the data and how it

and state B. b) Change is an

characterizes change (addressing RQ2). In quantitative analysis, experiential element present

change was necessarily defined by the authors - the

either in state A or c) in state B.

computationally defined bounds were arbitrary wrt the



phenomenon itself. We labeled this kind of (definition of) change Some representational aspects of the models above are due to

OPERATIONAL (definition of) change (oC). In diary data,

functional reasons. We envisioned further models but for the change was defined by the co-researcher in two instances, one of sake of brevity we only included some.

which includes the exact word “change” (see pDiaryE0). It is Following, we discuss how we tried to address pRQ1. During

argued that we “organize [our] experiences and actions according the first interview, Quentin said: “Not that I felt the change, the to narrative structures thereby situating them in the context of a change happened and I felt the consequences of the change”.

unifying story,” [28, p. 179] which we attest also happens while This seems to suggest either model 1) or 4c). Later, we found two writing a diary entry. Change was therefore narratively

different instances of experience that could represent experiential constructed. Arguably, this construction occurred in the moment

change. The first refers to (1) in Figure 2. Quentin made it clear of the writing of the diary, at a point in time successive to the that the knowledge was about the brightness being something original experience that the narrative was about. We labeled this new, not something different from before, since “There was no kind of change NARRATIVE change (nC). In the

trace of what was before or how this came to be”. This does not phenomenological data, change was looked for in a collaboration

mean that this experience does not entail experiential change: as between the co-researcher and the researcher conducting the far as we know, experiential change might be precisely

interviews. Differently from the other levels of analysis, the experienced as the knowledge, or perception, of the newness of

understanding of something as change was here not already something. This would correspond to model 3). The other

given, but to be explored and discussed. In fact, our

instance that might delineate experiential change refers to (2) in phenomenological inquiry was aimed precisely at investigating

Figure 2. This change would correspond to model 4c). However,

how change might present itself in experience, if it does at all.

we were specifically interested in the experience of change in We labeled this kind of change EXPERIENTIAL change (eC).

mood, and we cannot claim that the change referred to in (2) in

There are two big problems that arise from this: a) the Figure 2 complies with this. When asked towards the end of the

granularity problem, and b) the level problem. It is not clear how third interview whether at any point of the investigated episode the various time spans correspond to each other (a)), and whether he realized that his confidence had changed, Quentin answered

the various levels of change (oC, nC, eC) refer to and describe

no (which hints at model 1)).

the same phenomenon, using different levels of analysis. It might in fact be that oC, nC and eC refer to multiple phenomena. We

do sense there is a certain correspondence between the three 6 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK

levels (and there was an agreement on the moment between the

This work represents an exploratory neurophenomenological

co-researcher’s suggestion and the authors’ suggestion), but inquiry into the nature of change in the context of mood. We used unraveling the complexity of that is out of scope of this paper.

ecological momentary assessment to collect daily questionnaire

5.2 Models of Experiential Change

and diary data, and after selecting a proper data instance, we conducted phenomenological interviews on it. We discerned that

We hypothesize different models of how change might be

there was an inter-methodological agreement on the moment of

experienced in a simplified “state A to state B transition”.

change; however, it is not clear how it manifested, if at all, on the experiential level. We observed various definitional aspects of change, culminating in ONE-ness of change, describing operational, narrative, and experiential change. Finally, we



presented some possible models of experiential change and 14

analyzed how our phenomenological data fit into them. We

[7]

Günter K. Schiepek, Kathrin Viol, Wolfgang Aichhorn, Marc-Thorsten

Hütt, Katharina Sungler, David Pincus and Helmut J. Schöller, 2017.

found two major problems to address in the future: the

Psychotherapy is chaotic — (not only) in a computational world. Frontiers granularity and the levels problem.

in Psychology, 8 (May 2017), 379.

The study had many limitations, mostly due to its exploratory

[8]

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Informatics. Springer, Berlin. In print.

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Howard Reiss, 1996. Methods of thermodynamics. Courier Corporation, not gone in depth enough to really identify and specify the Chelmsford, MA.

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in faulty change detections. Using a single method to detect

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overlooked ubiquity of first-person experience in the cognitive sciences.

Synthese, (Feb 2019), 1-37.

how to proceed when two methods from the same or different

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[14]

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11, 2 (Mar 2016), 375-385.

In future work, apart from addressing the limitations, we plan

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O. Markič (Eds.), Institut "Jožef Stefan”, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 5-9.

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xperiences_An_Exploratory_Study_conference_contribution_

change; conducting interviews on episodes reported as including

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master’s thesis]. University of Vienna.

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[18]

Peter CM. Molenaar, 2004. A manifesto on psychology as idiographic matryoshka

principle

[29];

applying

post-cognitivist

science: Bringing the person back into scientific psychology, this time frameworks, e.g., the dynamical systems theory framework;

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Measurement,

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201–218.

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addressing the granularity problem by expanding the

https://doi.org/10.1207/s15366359mea0204_1

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Rutvik V. Shah, Gillian Grennan, Mariam Zafar-Khan, Fahad Alim, Sujit

methodology by changing the EMA contingency (e.g., when

Dey, Dhakshin Ramanathan, and Jyoti Mishr, 2021. Personalized machine experiential change occurs, when a physiological signal occurs)

learning of depressed mood using wearables. Translational Psychiatry, 11, 1 (Jun 2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41398-021-01445-0

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Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems: INDECS, 14, 4 (Oct 2016), 369-377.

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Günter Schiepek, Heiko Eckert, Benjamin Aas, Sebastian Wallot, and ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

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Slovenian Research Agency (research core funding No. P2-0209;

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researchers.

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15

Supplementary material

1 Diary entry guidelines

Please, answer the following questions in the form of a diary entry. Be mindful that your entry is approximately 150 words at minimum. There is no upper word limit. Questions:

1) Describe your mood.

2) Describe how your mood affected your experience:

a)

of yourself;

b) towards the world and its elements.

3) Describe how these experiences have changed from yesterday to today.

a)

Change of experience towards yourself from yesterday to today.

b) Change of experience towards the world and its elements from yesterday to today.

4) Factual information from the last day that you would like to highlight.

2 Diary entries and quantitative questionnaire mood scores

a)

July 1st 2021



DiaryE0:

Today I mostly felt quite inspired, determined and enthusiastic. I saw myself as important, I was very self-confident. This brought about a certain feeling, a certain change in the air around me. The air was pointing up, and I could move throughout differently. Also, for example, people listening to me at a seminar about using a tool for daily assessment had this directionality towards me which gave me some sort of power. Compared to yesterday, when I also felt inspired and enthusiastic, today I had this huge undertone of confidence, and this caused a difference especially in how I perceived others. Otherwise it was a full day, I had a meeting about the future of my software, I worked on my study, I sorted out the details of my stay in another country which I was invited to visit, to see the psychiatric processes and to share knowledge at their clinic, I had the before mentioned seminar, my girlfriend Jaya and I went together to a wonderful classical concert with my parents, and finally, we ate homemade apple pie and drank champagne that was a gift from my mom's best friend. It was a great day.



Mood scores:

DI

AF

UP

NE

SC

IN

AL

EX

EN

DE

1

1

1

1

1

5

5

5

5

5





b) June 30th 2021:



DiaryE1:

The day was signified by three moods - uninterested, determined, and inspired. I saw myself too scattered, without a center to hold me or to hold onto, and this made me uninterested in the world around me and it was hard to do anything I wanted to, which I disliked. The narrative of where I am was quite dispersed, and it was hard to look at the things that hold me together. At first I was frustrated, so I spend some time just embracing that feeling, with knowledge that afterwards I will pull myself together. When this phase came, I became determined to set myself straight, and I made a sort of a plan or a diagram of what I want to do and is important to me, what makes me happy. This was quite successful and afterwards I was inspired to do the tasks I wanted to do. The world was consequently also different, it is like after being inspired I am seeing it, it has this brighter quality, but not visually, but the feeling of its atmosphere. Otherwise I was quite happy to have my weekly meet with two of my friends online.



Mood scores:



DI

AF

UP

NE

SC

IN

AL

EX

EN

DE

2

1

3

1

1

3

2

2

2

2





16





3 Graph of the mood over the entire time series

4



4 Mood graphs

17





18





19





20





5 Sentiment graphs





21





Sensitivity of expected civilization longevity models Anže Marinko

Maša Žaucer

anze.marinko@ijs.si

masa.zaucer@student.fmf.uni-lj.si

Jožef Stefan Institute

Jožef Stefan Institute

Jamova cesta 39

Jamova cesta 39

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Ljubljana, Slovenia

David Susič

Matjaž Gams

David.Susic@ijs.si

Matjaz.Gams@ijs.si

Jožef Stefan Institute

Jožef Stefan Institute

Jamova cesta 39

Jamova cesta 39

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Ljubljana, Slovenia

ABSTRACT

hypothesis [12]. For both models we analysed the difference In this paper, we analyse the parameter sensitivities of the Sand-between using log-uniform and log-normal distributions of the

berg and Rare Earth civilization longevity models. The Sandberg

parameters. In addition, we analysed which parameters most

model relies on the Drake equation, while the Rare Earth model

affect the results in each model. All in all, we dove into the

assumes that the Earth is a very unique planet because of rare

structure of the models and tried to improve the accuracy of the sequence of events causing its evolution. In addition to the sensi-results.

tivity of the parameters, we also analyse the importance of those parameters.

2

RELATED WORK

Some publications suggest there are 600 to 40 000 technological

KEYWORDS

civilizations in our galaxy [10], while others think there should Human extinction, Drake equation, Civilization collapse, Rare

be about 36 of them, assuming an average lifespan of 100 years

Earth hypothesis, distributions

[13]. However, given our ability to detect intelligent life [3] and their radio signals [2], and the fact that we have not detected 1

INTRODUCTION

anything yet, a large number of civilizations is unlikely.

After years of dealing with Fermi’s question: "Where is every-In our previous paper [4], we analyzed 4 different models of body?", we still do not seem to have a good answer. After scan-the modified Drake equation to determine longevity of human

ning more than 10 million stars [11], we have not found a single civilization. From the accessible data, we concluded that the hu-extraterrestrial life.

man technological civilization will most likely survive at most 10

We know that it is inevitable that human civilization will one

000 years. Note that the analysis is not able to conclude anything day die out, but what is the expected longevity and how is it

about biological aspects of humans. Another research induces

related to the absence of observed civilizations? One way is to

that the yearly probability for extinction is most likely less than design human longevity models that use a variety of parameters

1 in 87 000 using four different models [9]. In [5] they explain to answer this question. However, it is not clear which models

that humanity will eventually have to move to avoid the death

heavily rely on the values of parameters. In this paper we study of our Sun.

the sensitivity of the models to the parameters and we also try

In this paper we focused on how the parameters of the Drake

to determine which parameters have the greatest impact.

equation and the choice of the various attributes in two mod-

In our previous papers [6, 14] we approached the topic of els affect the probability of longevity of human technological

the extinction of human civilization and introduced the Drake

civilization.

equation [1]. In the first paper [6] we presented Sandberg’s [8] interpretation of the Drake equation and analysed it. In the second 3

ESTIMATING THE LONGEVITY OF

paper [14], we presented possible causes of human extinction and HUMAN CIVILIZATION WITH

used the Drake equation to estimate the longevity of human civi-

SANDBERG AND RARE EARTH MODEL

lization. In the last paper [4], we presented four different models 3.1

SANDBERG MODEL

with some modifications of the Drake equation and considered

their prospects for the time we have left. We concluded that we

The Sandberg model [8] is based on Drake equation: are most likely to survive at most 10 000 years.

𝑁 = 𝑅

𝑛

𝑓 𝑓 𝑓 𝐿

(1)

In this paper, we focused mainly on two of the models from

∗ 𝑓𝑝 𝑒 𝑙 𝑖 𝑐

the previous paper [4]. The first model we analysed is based

• 𝑅∗ being the rate of star formation per year,

on Sandberg [8] and the second one represents the "rare Earth"

• 𝑓 the fraction of stars with planets,

𝑝

• 𝑛 the number of Earth-like (or otherwise habitable) plan-

𝑒

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal ets per a star that has planets,

or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and

• 𝑓 the fraction of habitable planets with actual life,

𝑙

the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this

• 𝑓 the fraction of life-bearing planets that develop intelli-

𝑖

work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

gence,

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

© 2020 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

• 𝑓 the fraction of intelligent civilizations that are detectable,

𝑐

• 𝐿 the average longevity of such civilizations.

22





Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Anže Marinko, Maša Žaucer, David Susič and Matjaž Gams

Table 1: Probability densities for the parameters in equa-

Table 2: Probability densities for the parameters in equa-

tion (1)

tion (4)

Parameter Distribution

Parameter Distribution

∗

𝑅∗

log-uniform from from 1 to 100

𝑁

log-uniform from 10.7 to 12.7

𝑓

log-uniform from 0.1 to 1

𝑛

log-uniform from -1.3 to -0.8

𝑝

𝑔

𝑛

log-uniform from 0.1 to 1

𝑓

log-uniform from -3 to -0.7

𝑒

𝑝𝑚

𝑓

log-normal rate, described in paper [9]

𝑓

log-uniform from -2.5 to -1.5

𝑙

𝑚

𝑓

log-uniform from 0.001 to 1

𝑓

log-uniform from -1 to 0

𝑖

𝑗

𝑓

log-uniform from 0.01 to 1

𝑓

log-uniform from -2.5 to -1.5

𝑐

𝑚𝑒

𝑁

point values: 1 to 10 000

From the equation we can compute

they appear to have the same weight on the logarithmic scale.

𝑁 , which is the number of

detectable civilizations, or longevity

The high values near zero therefore make it very sensitive to

𝐿:

changes in parameter ranges and can even cause numerical er-

𝑁

rors when multiplications occur or at least strongly influence the

𝐿 =

(2)

final result.

𝑅∗ 𝑓 𝑛 𝑓 𝑓 𝑓

𝑝

𝑒

𝑙

𝑖

𝑐

with parameters, i.e. probability densities and limits from Table 1.

For this reason, distributions whose values are close to zero

As Sandberg suggests, all distributions used in this model were

at the boundaries of the parameter range are more stable with

log-uniform.

respect to changes in the parameters. We compared the stability

of the log-uniform distribution with the log-normal distribution 3.2

RARE EARTH MODEL

by slightly changing the lower bound of some parameters and

The Rare Earth model is based on the "rare Earth" theory that observing the corresponding change in the distribution. The

assumes that Earth is a very unique planet evolved under rare

results in Figures 1 and 2, and later 3 and 4 indicate that the circumstances. This theory introduces equation:

change of log-uniform distribution is much larger than that of

log-normal distribution. Therefore, the log-normal distribution

∗

𝑁 = 𝑁 𝑛 𝑓 𝑓

𝑓 𝑓

𝑓 𝑓

𝑓

𝑓

(3)

𝑔

𝑝

𝑝𝑚

𝑖

𝑐

is much less dependent on the choice of the parameter range.

𝑙

𝑚

𝑗

𝑚𝑒

We combined equation (3) with Drake’s equation and used probability distributions from Tables 1 and 2. This instantly rules out the need of the 𝑓 (the fraction of stars with planets) parameter.

𝑝

Furthermore, product 𝑓 ∗ 𝑓 ∗ 𝑓 from Drake is equal to 𝑓 ∗ 𝑓 ∗ 𝑓

𝑙

𝑖

𝑐

𝑖

𝑐

𝑙

from Rare Earth, which gives us the final equation:

∗

𝑁

𝑛

𝑓

𝑓

𝑓

𝑓

𝑔

𝑝𝑚

𝑚

𝑗

𝑚𝑒

𝐿 =

(4)

𝑅∗𝑛𝑒

and some new parameters:

•

∗

𝑁

is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy (be-

tween 250 and 500 billion),

• 𝑛𝑔

• 𝑓

is the fraction of planets that are metal-rich (between

𝑝𝑚

1 and 10 percent),

Figure 1: Change of probability distribution with respect

• 𝑓

is the fraction of planets with a large moon (between

𝑚

to change of lower range limit of parameter 𝑓 .

𝑖

0.3 and 3 percent),

• 𝑓 is the fraction of solar systems with Jupiter-size planets

𝑗

(between 5 and 10 percent),

• 𝑓

is the fraction of planets with a critically low number

𝑚𝑒

of extinction events (between 1 and 10 percent).

In the Rare Earth model we also used log-uniform distribution,

in order to compare it to the Sandberg model results.

4

EXPERIMENTS

4.1

Issues with log-uniform distribution

In analysing the two models, we focused primarily on how dif-

ferent distributions affect the results. Due to the shape of log-uniform distribution (see Figure 2), the part of the graph that

is very close to zero has a significant impact on the final result.

Since we have a logarithmic scale, the part from zero to one on

Figure 2: Change of probability distribution with respect

the logarithmic scale corresponds to the range from zero to one

to change of lower range limit of parameters 𝑅∗, 𝑛 and 𝑓 .

𝑒

𝑖

percent, while the part from one to two percents corresponds to

the range between one and one hundred percent, even though

23





Sensitivity of models

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Figure 3: Difference between log-uniform and log-normal

Figure 5: Importance of parameters in Rare Earth model

distribution in the Sandberg model.

for estimating probability of surviving 1000 years.

Figure 4: Difference between log-uniform and log-normal

Figure 6: Importance of parameters in Sandberg model for

distribution in the Rare Earth model.

estimating probability of surviving 1000 years.

4.2

Parameter importance

In order to analyse the stability/sensitivity of the two models, we studied which parameters have the greatest impact on the

final result. For this purpose, a dataset with different values and distributions for the parameters was created for the two models.

Then, three subsets were taken, each containing only the subset

with rows for which the probability that we survive at least

L years is above 90%. The L options chosen were: 1000, 10 000,

100 000. The importance of the features in each of the subsets was then calculated using the Gini importance method implemented

in the Python’s scikit-learn decision tree regressor algorithm [7].

Figure 7: Importance of parameters in Rare Earth model

The feature importance scores are shown in Figures 5 to 10.

for estimating probability of surviving 10 000 years.

We found that in the Sandberg model, parameters 2 and 9 play

the most important role, as you can see in Figures 6, 8 and 10,

which show the importance of the parameters in calculating the

probability that we survive 1000, 10 000 and 100 000 years.

In the model Rare Earth, on the other hand, parameters 5 and

7 are crucial for the prediction. This can be seen from Figures 5, 7

and 9, which show the importance scores of the parameters when calculating the same probabilities with the model Rare Earth.

5

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This research took two promising models from our earlier study

[4] and analysed stability and sensitivity of the models and parameters. We analysed the stability of the log-uniform distribution compared to the log-normal distribution. To determine the differ-Figure 8: Importance of parameters in Sandberg model for

ence between the two, Figures 1 and 2 are visually informative: estimating probability of surviving 10 000 years.

changing the parameter range significantly affects the log-normal distribution, while the log-normal distribution is insensitive to cause some numerical curiosities. It seems reasonable to use dis-these changes. Therefore, the log-normal distribution provides

tributions that rely mainly on the central values rather than the more reliable results, while the log-uniform distribution may

marginal values.

24





Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Anže Marinko, Maša Žaucer, David Susič and Matjaž Gams

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[9] Andrew E. Snyder-Beattie, Toby Ord, and Michael B. Bon-

sall. 2018. An upper bound for the background rate of

human extinction.

From Figures 3 and 4 we can observe that the Rare Earth Scientific Reports 9:11054. doi: 10.1038/

model is considerably more optimistic than the Sandberg model.

s41598-019-47540-7.

[10] Robert Strom G. 2015. We are not alone: extraterrestrial

If we assume that Earth is very unique in our galaxy, we have

technological life in our galaxy.

the highest probability of living around 1 000 000 years. On

Astrobiol Outreach 3: 144.

the other hand, universe observations do not support well the

doi: 10.4172/2332-2519.1000144.

[11] Chenoa Tremblay and Steven Tingay. 2020. A seti sur-

uniqueness of our planet in terms of the large amount of suns

vey of the vela region using the murchison widefield ar-

with their planets. Further galaxy observations should provide

ray: orders of magnitude expansion in search space.

more information which model fits the reality better.

doi:

From Figures 5 to 10, we can interpret that parameters 2, 5, 7, 10.1017/pasa.2020.27.

[12] Peter Douglas Ward and Donald Eugene Brownlee. 2000.

and 9 play the most important role in predicting the extinction of humanity. This seems novel compared to previous studies, and

Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe.

Copernicus.

enables further discussion and studies regarding the causes and

[13] Tom Westby and Christopher J Conselice. 2020. The as-

consequences of it. Whatever the case, while parameters seem

trobiological copernican weak and strong limits for in-

to have numerically equal role and weight, studies of numerical

telligent life.

relevance of the parameters of the equations (2) or (4) indicate The Astrophysical Journal 896(1):58. doi: 10.

significant differences.

3847/1538-4357/ab8225.

[14] Beno Šircelj, Laura Guzelj Blatnik, Ajda Zavrtanik Drglin,

Parameter 9 represents the choice of the distribution of the

and Matjaž Gams. 2019. Expected human longevity.

parameters. This is consistent with the distribution studies in

Infor-

this paper indicating that the probability curve for the longevity macijska družba, volume B.

of human civilization strongly influences the obtained results.

Finally, while models do perform differently given different

values of parameters, some patterns seem to emerge quite con-

sistently if the parameters are set reasonably.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors acknowledge the financial support from the Slove-

nian Research Agency (research core funding No. P2-0209).

25

Change ahead!

Questioning and changing beliefs in online discussions

Lenart Motnikar†

David Garcia

Hannah Metzler

Complexity Science Hub

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Vienna

&

&

lenart.motnikar@ait.ac.at

Graz University of Technology

Graz University of Technology

dgarcia@tugraz.at

metzler@csh.ac.at



ABSTRACT

inspected the latter mainly focused on features of the

argument itself, measuring factors like linguistic, stylistic, Recent studies of persuasion and persuasibility in online and topical composition, as well as user interaction [3, 4, 5].

discussions have predominantly focused on argument-

These studies, however, all focused on features pertaining specific features but not addressed extraneous factors that

directly to the arguments, neglecting a domain of potential

make someone question their beliefs in the first place. In this

explanatory significance – how users behave outside the

exploratory study, we sought to uncover factors underlying

argument.

users’ decisions to challenge their views in an online

Research in computational social science has indeed shown

discussion forum and subsequently change them. We

that the behavioral and linguistic traces of online activity can discovered that the examined psycholinguistic factors play a

carry important information about the psychology of

greater role in the questioning than the changing of opinions

humans and the interactions between them [6].

and further discuss the findings.

Observing those would enable not only a deeper

understanding of susceptibilities to being persuaded once a

KEYWORDS

view has been questioned but also delving into the factors persuasion, ChangeMyView, reddit, belief change

that influence the questioning of one’s view in the first place.

Reddit provides a unique opportunity for such investigation,

as each user’s history of activity is publicly available and, 1 INTRODUCTION

because of the variety of discussion communities, less

Social media are becoming an increasingly dominant means

dependent on topic of discussion.

of exerting persuasive influence on people. However, if not

That being said, despite CMV’s credo stating that the forum is

done appropriately and targeted at individuals who are not



susceptible in the first place, attempts at persuasion can

“A place to post an opinion you accept may be flawed, in an effort result in backfiring, pushing people further apart [1]. As to understand other perspectives on the issue.”

these phenomena propagate through the population,



affecting and changing society at large, persuasion in online

only a small minority (13%) of the community’s members

social spaces has become an important topic of scientific ever post submissions on their own opinions, while the

inquiry.

majority only participate in the discussions of others’ views.

Providing an open-access, natural discursive environment

While posting on CMV does not guarantee that a person is, in

with user-labeled data, the Change My View (CMV) Reddit fact, open to view-change and the environment is not the only

forum has become a popular research subject, being

one where the process takes place, the relatively small share

investigated in at least 20 studies [2] from fields like of submitting users implies that deliberately and openly

computational linguistics, behavioral design, and discourse

challenging one’s view is a relatively unique phenomenon, studies.

even within a purposed community like CMV.

On the forum, users write about their views on various topics

To fill the identified gap in current research on persuasion,

with the purpose of having their views challenged. Users can

we set out to explore the factors associated with users’

then award the arguments of others with a “delta” if they decisions to, first, challenge their opinions on CMV, and succeed in changing their initial stance.

second, to end up changing them.

Studies of persuasion on the forum have mostly focused on

To answer these questions, we inspected the users’ activities

what makes an argument persuasive and, to a lesser extent,

on Reddit before they joined the CMV community. As this is

what makes the users persuadable. The studies that

an exploratory endeavor without much theoretical

foundation, we focused on surface-level parameters,



observing the user’s posting patterns, stylistic and linguistic

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal features, indicators of personality, and their community

or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice affiliation.

and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).



Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

26

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, L. Motnikar et al.

Slovenia



2 METHOD

We then set to explore the data in two problems, comparing

two sets of users in each task.

We collected submissions and comments that were posted to

CMV between January 1st and December 31st, 2020, excluding

2.2 Task 1: Questioning one’s view

those that were removed by moderators, or made by bots

and deleted accounts. This left us with 31,419 submissions

In Task 1, we explored the characteristics of CMV users who

and 1,563,865 comments, authored by 158,724 unique users,

posted submissions questioning their views by comparing

21,168 of whom posted submissions.

them to those who only commented on others’ posts but

We studied users who made their first contribution to CMV

never submitted posts on their own views.

in the studied period and were active on the forum over a After filtering by the previously mentioned criteria, the span of at least seven days. While this threshold is somewhat

experimental group consisted of 4,639 users who posted at

arbitrary, it allowed us to exclude users who were mere least one submission on CMV.

passersby of the community (who may be unfamiliar,

We compared those users to a control group of the same size,

unserious, or even purposefully disruptive), while retaining

randomly selected from the users that passed the criteria but

a representative sample accounting for a majority (69%) of

never posted their submission (although they may have done

newcomer-created content.

so after the studied period). From here on, we refer to these

We then downloaded the users’ post histories one year

groups as questioning (Q) and non-questioning (Non-Q).

before their first post (submission or comment) on CMV and

imposed additional filters, keeping the users who:

2.3 Task 2: Changing one’s view

a) made less than 10,000 submissions and comments, to

In the second part, we were interested in finding the

exclude potential bots and spammers, and

characteristics underpinning one’s susceptibility to view-

b) made at least 10 posts containing 100 analyzable tokens

change. For this, we divided questioning users into two

before joining CMV, to ensure enough data.

subgroups: those susceptible (S) and non-susceptible (Non-

For each user, we created two separate corpora, one of pre-

S) to view-change.

CMV submissions and one of pre-CMV comments. We then

We deemed a submission as ending in view-change if its

analyzed their posts across various domains, excluding

author has awarded a “delta” that has been confirmed by the

deleted and non-English (estimated automatically, using [7])

forum’s Delta-Bot, which checks for rule compliance.

posts from text analysis.

We selected CMV submissions that garnered at least 10

comments (indicating that some discussion took place) and

2.1 Investigated features

compare authors who changed their views in either 100%

Posting behavior. First, we collected data on the users’

(n=1,435) or 0% (n=1,204) of the submissions they posted.

posting behavior, including days of activity pre-CMV activity,

We opted for this distinction following [3], presupposing that

the number of communities they were involved with, the

the differences would be more notable between extremes.

average length of submissions and comments, and their daily

rates of posting.

3

Psycholinguistic characteristics. Second, we scored the RESULTS

post histories on selected categories of the LIWC2015

In both tasks, we conducted a series of Bonferroni-Holm-

dictionary [8], a popular tool for psycholinguistic research,

corrected significance tests, comparing the features of the containing common words and word stems categorized by

users’ pre-CMV submission and comment corpora

grammatical and semantic categories.

separately. We present results in Table 1 for Task 1 and Table

We selected features relating to grammar, as well as selected

2 for Task 2, showing only features that yielded significant

psychological categories. The latter included affective,

differences, due to spatial limitations.

cognitive, social, perceptual, and biological processes, drives, In Task 1, we observed that questioning users, on average,

relativity, and time orientations.

posted submissions more often while having a shorter

Formatting and structure. Third, we looked at the outward duration of pre-CMV activity.

appearance and structure of users’ posts by extracting

Regarding LIWC, users differed in most of the studied

Markdown formatting features, namely the use of bold,

categories. In most cases, the trend pointed in the same italics, quotations, links, and un/ordered lists.

direction in both submissions and comments. In some cases,

Personality. Fourth, we built a predictor of BIG5 personality the difference was significant only in one set, and in a few, the traits by matching the top and bottom 100 n-grams that were

trends in submissions and comments opposed one another.

shown to be associated with each personality dimension in

Regarding formatting, questioning users used more ordered

[9] and summing their correlation-weighted scores.

lists in both sets of corpora, while they used fewer quotes in

Reddit communities. In addition, we also explored

the comments.

differences in the communities where the users were active,

The users’ posts exhibited quite inconsistent manifestations

to see if particular communities are more or less popular of personality, expressing lower neuroticism in submissions,

within a certain population. We looked at the subreddits while in the comments, they showed higher agreeableness,

where the users posted and calculated the percentages of extraversion and conscientiousness, and lower openness.

affiliated users in the studied groups.





27

Change ahead!

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana,

Questioning and changing views in online discussions

Slovenia



Table 1. Significance testing results in Task 1. The numbers Table 2. Significance testing results in Task 2. Arrow represent effect sizes (Cohen’s d). Arrow direction represent how directions represent feature expression in S users relative to Non-S.

the feature expresses in Q users relative to Non-Q. The number of arrows denotes significance at p<.05, p<.01, p<.001, or p<.0001.

Feature

Characteristic of susceptibility?





Posting features

Feature

Characteristic of questioning?





Submissions per day

-.17 ↓↓



Posting features



Submissions per day

.32 ↑↑↑↑



Submissions

Comments

Days of activity

-.39 ↓↓↓↓



Formatting





Ordered list

.08

.14 ↑

Submissions

Comments

LIWC

Personality





Function words

.14 ↑↑↑↑

.07 ↑

Agreeableness

.01

.15 ↑

Pronouns

.16 ↑↑↑↑

.21 ↑↑↑↑

Neuroticism

.11

.20 ↑↑↑↑

Personal pronouns

.10 ↑↑↑

.22 ↑↑↑↑

1st person singular

-.03

.31 ↑↑↑↑

In Task 1, for example, questioning users had a 2.37 times

1st person plural

-.10 ↓↓

.00

higher likelihood to post on r/askphilosophy (a forum for 2nd person

.14 ↑↑↑↑

.04

discussion of philosophical ideas) and a relative likelihood of

3rd person plural

.02

-.11 ↓↓↓↓

0.3 to post on r/bestof (a forum where users share their Impersonal

.15 ↑↑↑↑

.06 ↑

favorite comments across all Reddit). Similarly, in Task 2, Articles

-.06

-.21 ↓↓↓↓

susceptible users were 2.7 times more likely to post on Prepositions

-.07

-.16 ↓↓↓↓

r/getdisciplined (a support community for self-

Common adverbs

.11 ↑↑↑↑

.08 ↑↑

improvement) but had a likelihood of 0.58 to post on

Conjunctions

.13 ↑↑↑↑

.11 ↑↑↑↑

r/socialism.

Common adjectives

.10 ↑↑↑

-.08 ↓↓

Comparisons

.12 ↑↑↑↑

-.04

Table 3: Quotients of subreddit association rates

Interrogatives

.26 ↑↑↑↑

.12 ↑↑↑↑

between Q and Non-Q users in Task 1 and S and Non-S

Numbers

-.15 ↓↓↓↓

-.08 ↓↓

users in Task 2.

Quantifiers

-.03

-.08 ↓↓

Positive emotion

-.01

.11 ↑↑↑↑

Task 1

Task 2

Negative emotion

.16 ↑↑↑↑

-.03

subreddit

ratio subreddit

ratio

Social processes

.24 ↑↑↑↑

.04

askphilosophy

2.37 getdisciplined

2.70

Cognitive processes

.16 ↑↑↑↑

.12 ↑↑↑↑

SuicideWatch

2.08 woooosh

2.33

Perceptual processes

-.04

.09 ↑↑↑

FreeKarma4U

1.96 confidentlyincorrect 2.31

Drives

.03

-.08 ↓↓

ask

1.95 ShitAmericansSay

2.31

Present focus

.08 ↑

.08 ↑↑

findareddit

1.90 antimeme

2.28

Relativity

-.20 ↓↓↓↓

-.17 ↓↓↓↓



…



…

Formatting



The_Mueller

0.36 AbruptChaos

0.62

Quote

.02

-.08 ↓↓

LeopardsAteMyFace

0.35 sports

0.62

Ordered list

.07 ↑

.08 ↑↑

MaliciousCompliance 0.33 PoliticalDiscussion

0.61

Personality





LivestreamFail

0.33 PS4

0.59

Openness

-.06

-.16 ↓↓↓↓

bestof

0.30 socialism

0.58

Conscientiousness

-.04

.08 ↑↑

Extraversion

.04

.16 ↑↑↑↑

Agreeableness

-.06

.09 ↑↑↑

4 DISCUSSION

Neuroticism

-.15 ↓↓↓↓

.03

In this study, we sought to uncover parameters that might In Task 2, there were fewer differences compared to Task 1.

carry explanatory information about a user’s tendency to

Regarding posting features, susceptible users exhibited a

openly question and then change their views. First, we

lower rate of posting submissions. There were no observable

compared users who posted submissions on CMV to those

differences in LIWC categories, while in formatting,

that only commented. Second, we compared the submitters

susceptible users exhibited a slightly higher use of ordered

who always ended up changing their views to those that

lists in the comments. Regarding personality, susceptible

never did.

users expressed higher agreeableness and neuroticism in the

We first observed that the users who posted submissions to

comments.

CMV also had a higher rate of posting submissions elsewhere,

We also inspected if the user groups in both tasks differ in the before they joined the forum, indicating that the users who

communities they contribute to. Table 3 presents ratios

submit to CMV are in general more inclined to post

between the percentages of users who were affiliated with

submissions, which could be due to many factors. We

the community in each group, with a bottom threshold of 2%.

observe a similar albeit weaker discrepancy in Task 2, where



28

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, L. Motnikar et al.

Slovenia



a higher rate of posting submissions was characteristic of questioning users tend to be more personal in their

non-susceptible users.

expression.

We then noticed that the time of the questioning users’

This considered, it is important to note that the effect sizes of activity or Reddit before their first contribution to CMV was

observed differences are minimal, and without a deeper

shorter on average. One explanation could be that the

examination of context, nuanced interpretation is difficult.

submissions were posted from secondary accounts, perhaps

An interesting observation is that across all features, the to anonymize one’s expression of a view they would not feel

groups differed a lot more in Task 1 than in Task 2. This comfortable sharing otherwise. Despite our intentions to

shows that the psycholinguistic characteristics underpinning

limit such “throwaway” accounts by imposing a limit of

one’s tendency to challenge their view on CMV play greater

minimum activity, enough might have remained to have

importance compared to the ones behind their susceptibility

affected the data.

to award “deltas”. At the same time, they show that the users

We further observed that questioning users have a

who decide to submit to CMV might gravitate towards a

significantly different linguistic profile, as significant

certain type of user, begging the question of generalizability

differences appeared in several measured LIWC categories.

of studies of the forum.

Of those, function words and pronouns in particular have The personality measures showed several differences in both

been studied the most and are known to bear psychological

tasks but were inconsistent when comparing expressions in

relevance, as they reveal the focus of the author’s attention

submissions and comments. Given that differences for each

and the relations between the entities discussed [10]. Higher

dimension were shown only in one set of corpora, this might

(personal) pronoun use, which was characteristic of

high indicate contextual dependency. Research has indeed

questioning users, generally points towards more personal

shown that word correlation-based measures of personality

and people-oriented language. However, when it comes to

depend on communication contexts [11], which could also

interpretation, it is important to also consider the different

apply to those of submitting and commenting. The second

contexts of submissions and comments, which differ in who

contextual consideration is that the tokens used for

they’re directed to. In submissions, where users address a personality estimation were taken from a study of posts on

general audience, we observed that questioning users used

Facebook and might therefore not translate well to the social

more second person (“you”) and less first-person plural

environment on Reddit.

(“we”) pronouns. The role of second person has been

We also observed that certain subreddits were more or less

predominantly studied in close relationships, where it is likely to be visited by the studied groups, indicating some likely to entail confrontation [10]. However, in the context of

kind of community preferences, although it is not obvious submissions, this is not likely to be the case. As they are what underlies them. Going forward, it would be interesting

directed towards an unspecified reader, it is probably more

to examine if these differences are driven by topic or by likely that the use of “you” is meant in a manner that is specific social characteristics.

inquisitive or directing (e.g., “What do you guys think?”, “You

The main takeaway from this study is that the explored

should try this!”), showing initiative and an interest in others.

factors, particularly those regarding language, have a greater

This interpretation is also in line with the observation that

role in underlying questioning one’s views on CMV, than

questioning users used more interrogatives.

changing them. However, as noted in the beginning,

Next, the lesser use of first-person plural (“we”) in

questioning users posted more submissions overall. It is

submissions could indicate a lower degree of community

important to note that although we interpreted our findings

affiliation and belonging. It has previously been suggested through the lens of questioning beliefs, this might not be the

that binding one’s view to a group disperses the feeling of main explaining factor behind the observations. It could be

responsibility for it [5]. If questioning users hold beliefs as that the differences we observed are driven more by this their own rather than representing a group they identify general propensity to post submissions than a wish to

with, they may be more likely to question their views.

challenge one’s views.

In the comments, we observed two further pronoun-related

In the future, it would therefore be necessary to explore this

trends. In particular, questioning users used more first-

question further. For example, one could investigate if

person singular (“I”), which entails greater self-focus,

similar differences exist between submitters and non-

perhaps as a means of explaining oneself, and less third-submitters in other communities or if these effects scale with

person plural (“they”), indicating a lesser focus on an

the users’ rates of posting submissions. To better understand

outgroup or people in general.

the mechanisms behind challenging beliefs, we would have

Furthermore, we observed differences in several other

to control for such factors, as well as discern how

grammatic and semantic categories in both submissions and

motivations for submitting in general interact with those comments. These point towards thematic and topical

specifically relating to questioning views.

discrepancy between the users’ use of language. As a general

observation, questioning users used fewer numbers, articles,

ACKNOWLEGMENT

prepositions, and relativity, which indicates a lesser

D. G. and H. M. acknowledge funding from the Vienna Science

propensity for complex, analytic, and concrete language. This

and Technology Fund through the project “Emotional Well-

is contrasted by a higher use of words in the psychological

Being in the Digital Society” (Grant No. VRG16-005).

process categories, supporting the previous explanation that





29

Change ahead!

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana,

Questioning and changing views in online discussions

Slovenia



REFERENCES

[1]

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30

Kaj se lahko naučimo od Jacques Mehlerja, klasičnega kognitivnega znanstvenika

What can we Learn from Jacques Mehler, a Classical Cognitive Scientist Amanda Saksida

Institute for Maternal and child health Burlo Garofolo – Trieste Italija

amanda.saksida@icloud.com





POVZETEK

classical cognitive science, modularity of mind, language

acquisition, Jacques Mehler

Prispevek prikazuje življenjsko delo Jacquesa Mehlerja, ki je

bil eden uspešnejših evropskih raziskovalcev razvoja človeške

kognicije, še posebej zgodnjega razvoja govora. Ob tem

1 Klasična kognitivna znanost in Mehlerjev doprinos

predstavi glavne predpostavke klasične kognitivne znanosti –

modularnost uma ter vlogo narave in vzgoje pri razvoju in

V letu 2020 je v Parizu v starosti 83 let po dolgi

delovanju miselnih procesov – in opiše, katere vpoglede je

nevrodegenerativni bolezni umrl Jacques Mehler, eden izmed

omogočilo empirično raziskovanje teh predpostavk v preteklih

pomembnih mladih akterjev tako imenovane kognitivne

desetletjih. Na kratko tudi oriše nova spoznanja, ki so

revolucije, ki se je zgodila v 60-ih letih prejšnjega stoletja in je pomenila odmik od takrat prevladujočega behaviorizma k kognitivno znanost v zadnjih dveh desetletjih dodobra

proučevanju vrojenih lastnosti kognicije. Od leta 1975 do spremenila in ki so deloma vplivala tudi na njegovo delo.

Način, kako je Mehler ta nova spoznanja vedno znova

2001 je vodil psiholingvistični laboratorij v Parizu

integriral v svoje delo, lahko predstavlja enega od modelov

(Laboratoire de Sciences Cognitives et Psycholinguistique,

sinteze empiričnega in teoretskega raziskovanja.

EHESS-ENS). Zaradi po njegovem mnenju prezgodnje

upokojitve v francoskem CNRS se je leta 2001 lotil še

vzpostavitve laboratorija Language, Cognition and

KLJUČNE BESEDE

Development Lab na SISSA-ISAS v Trstu, ki ga je vodil do

klasična kognitivna znanost, modularnost uma, razvoj govora,

končne upokojitve leta 2016.

Jacques Mehler

Mehler je kot direktor pariškega laboratorija veljal za

ABSTRACT

klasičnega kognitivnega znanstvenika, ki je človeško

kognicijo raziskoval v skladu z osnovnima predpostavkama,

The article shows the life work of Jacques Mehler, who was

da je um modularen ter da je večina miselnih procesov

one of the most successful European researchers in the field of

vrojenih. Ideja o modularnosti uma se je deloma napajala iz

the development of the human mind, especially early language

raziskav zgodnje nevrologije, vendar pa jo je v drugi polovici

acquisition. The article presents the main assumptions of

20. stoletja najbolje izpeljal Jerry Fodor⁠. Fodorjeva različica classical cognitive science – the modularity of the mind and

teorije o modularnosti uma, ki jo je povzel tudi Mehler, ne

the role of nature and nurture in the development and

nudi neposredne navezave na fiziološke procese,

functioning of the mind – and describes which insights have

predpostavlja pa, da na vsakem področju (modulu)

been enabled by Mehler’s empirical research of these

uma/kognicije veljajo drugačni načini učenja in zaznavanja assumptions over the past decades. New findings are also

(angl. domain specificity), ki niso neposredno vezani na drug

briefly presented that have changed cognitive science over the

modul (angl. information encapsulation) in ki niso nujno

last two decades and that have partly influenced his work. The

vezani na eno samo čutilo [1]. Ideja o vrojenosti miselnih

way in which Mehler has repeatedly integrated these new

procesov je, podobno, izhajala iz spoznanja o visoki

insights into his work can represent one of the models of the

specializaciji nekaterih delov kognicije že zelo zgodaj v

synthesis of empirical and theoretical research.

razvoju, še najbolj izrazito v razvoju govora [2]. Skladno s to

idejo je učenje pravzaprav zgolj sprožanje nastavitev

KEYWORDS

parametrov, ki so sami po sebi vrojeni [3] Kognitivna znanost,

ki je predpostavljala modularnost uma in vrojenost miselnih



Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or procesov je pomenila neposredno kritiko behaviorizma, ki je

classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or predpostavljal splošne mehanizme učenja za vse miselne

distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this procese in po katerem je učenje vedno neposredni odziv na

work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

zunanje dražljaje [4]. Razprava o vlogi narave in vzgoje je

sicer stara tisočletja, in mnenja o tem, da so nekateri miselni

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author.

procesi vrojeni, saj jih lahko opazujemo takoj po rojstvu ali še 31



Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Saksida, A.



pred njim, se še danes silovito krešejo z mnenji, da so ti

izvršilne funkcije že kmalu po rojstvu: dojenčki iz dvojezičnih

procesi posledica učinkovitih splošnih učnih mehanizmov.

družin že pri 7 mesecih izkazujejo boljšo kontrolo in

inhibicijo kot njihovi enojezični vrstniki [23], [24].

V teh teoretskih okvirih je Mehler izpeljal vrsto empiričnih

raziskav o tem, kako je človeško zaznavanje selektivno in Mehlerjeva izhodiščna pozicija je bila torej jasna in večina

pogojeno z vrojenim znanjem tudi na področju prepoznavanja

objavljenih del se je ukvarjala z omejitvami splošnih učnih in učenja maternega jezika. Ugotovil je, da je zlog osnovna mehanizmov ter visoko specializiranimi mehanizmi, ki so po

zaznavna enota v govoru in da je prepoznava zloga kot

njegovem prepričanju najverjetneje vrojeni (specializirani

osnovne zaznavne enote pomembna pri učenju in segmentaciji

mehanizmi zaznavanja, stavčni ritem in prozodija, soglasniki-

besed [5], [6], in to že od rojstva naprej [7]. Vendar pa so že

samoglasniki). Vendar pa je pri svojem delu ostajal trdno

novorojenčki pozorni tudi na druge pomembne elemente

zavezan empiričnemu preverjanju glavnih teoretskih vprašanj

govora, kot so premori in spremembe v intonaciji [8], [9].

s pomočjo čim bolj objektivnega in nepristranskega

Skupaj s študenti je raziskoval zmožnost razločevanja

opazovanja človeških odzivov od rojstva naprej, pravzaprav različnih jezikov ob rojstvu in ugotovil, da novorojenčki podobno kot Piaget, čeprav so ju ločevala nesoglasja. Ker mu

prepoznajo materin glas ter ritem jezika, ki so ga poslušali že

je empirično raziskovanje omogočalo vsaj delno distanco od pred rojstvom, ter ga ločijo od jezika z drugačnim ritmom, teoretskega dela, ostaja odprto vprašanje, kako bi na razvoj

vendar pa ne ločijo dveh ritmično podobnih jezikov [10], [11].

kognitivne znanosti gledal danes.

Kljub določeni meri skepse glede neposredne povezave med

(vrojenimi) miselnimi procesi in njihovo fiziološko

3 Kognitivna znanost danes v odnosu do Mehlerjevega

(nevrološko) podlago je bil zavezan eksperimentalnemu delu

dela

ter sodelovanju pri metodoloških inovacijah, potrebnih za

raziskave zgodnjega razvoja. To je kasneje omogočilo tudi Predstavljena teoretska vprašanja kognitivne znanosti so bila v

nekatera dognanja s področja nevrologije kognitivnih

zadnjih letih soočena z novimi podatki, ki so kazali na to, da

procesov, ki jih je preučeval. Med drugim je prvi uporabil lahko splošni kognitivni primanjkljaji zaradi spremenjenega

NIRS (angl. near-infrared spectroscopy) tehniko optične

vnosa podatkov pripeljejo do specifičnih razvojnih motenj. Na

topografije pri novorojenčkih ter tako prvi pokazal, da človek

primer, specifična jezikovna motnja bi bila lahko posledica

že ob rojstvu procesira govor v levi možganski polovici [12].

centralnega primanjkljaja v procesiranju hitrih zvočnih

dražljajev [25]. Podobno sosledje morda velja tudi za

2 Mehlerjeva integracija novih idej v klasično kognitivno

disleksijo [26], [27]. Vendar pa mnenja o izvoru učnih

znanost

razvojnih motenj ostajajo deljena in zato še vedno

prevladujejo kognitivni modeli, ki predvidevajo modularnost

Kognitivna znanost se je na prelomu tisočletja zopet začela posameznih področij kognicije [28], [29].

korenito spreminjati. Bolj množično so se začele zbujati

kritike teorije o modularnosti uma ter selektivnih zaznavnih in

Ker so kognitivni procesi nujno posledica dejavnosti

učnih mehanizmov. Naraslo je tudi zanimanje za vlogo

možganov, ideja modularnosti uma tudi v svojih novejših

splošnih statističnih učnih mehanizmov pri učenju govora, na

različicah vselej predpostavlja, da so specializirani procesi

primer zaznavanja pogostosti pojavitve osnovnih gradnikov

tisti, ki zasedajo nek točno določen predel možganskega tkiva

jezika, fonemov, zlogov, besed, ter pogojnih verjetnosti

[30]. To idejo so nedavna spoznanja v nevroznanosti dodobra

sopojavljanja teh gradnikov v jeziku [13], [14]. To je po

načela z dokazi, da so posamezni možganski moduli, ki so bili

naključju sovpadlo tudi z Mehlerjevim premikom iz Pariza v

tradicionalno razumljeni kot osnovni kognitivni moduli, v

Trst leta 2001. Novi laboratorij v Trstu se je začel ukvarjati z resnici deli nevronskih mrež, ki pa so v možganih pogosto

odnosom med statističnim učenjem in osnovnimi

uporabljene večkrat in za različne namene (angl. neural reuse,

predpostavkami klasične kognitivne znanosti. S skupino

neural redeployment) [31], [32]. Še več, bistvo specializacije

mladih sodelavcev je Mehler preučeval lastnosti in omejitve nevronskih mrež verjetno ni v njenih osnovnih gradnikih,

statističnega učenja pri segmentaciji in učenju besed.

možganskih modulih, temveč v načinu, kako so ti gradniki

Statistično učenje recimo deluje drugače na samoglasnikih kot

povezani. Zato je mogoče za iste kognitivne funkcije

na soglasnikih [15], [16], kadar pa so si statistične in

opazovati dejavnost različnih nevronskih mrež, ali pa obratno,

prozodične informacije v nasprotju, se človeški um bolj

dejavnost istih (ali vsaj navidezno istih) nevronskih mrež za

zanaša na prozodične [17]–[19].

različne kognitivne funkcije [33]. Primer za slednje so

ekspertne veščine, ki jih eksperti lahko navidezno opravljajo

Opažanje, da je zaznavanje selektivno, je pripeljalo tudi do

avtomatizirano, vendar pa obenem ohranjajo centralni nadzor

študij bolj ali manj specializiranih mehanizmov zaznavanja,

nad dinamiko dogajanja, kar bi lahko nakazovalo, da je za dva

npr. zaznavanje identitete (ponavljanja, npr. ponavljanja

procesa odgovorno eno (ali vsaj na videz eno) nevronsko

zlogov) in zaznavanje robov (npr. boljše pomnjenje zlogov na

omrežje [34].

robovih besed), ki v veliki meri olajšajo zgodnje učenje jezika

[20]–[22]. Obenem pa so v laboratoriju potekale tudi

Čeprav so se kognitivni modeli delovanja kognicije v

raziskave o tem, kako razvoj govora, kot specializiranega

preteklosti lahko ogradili od modelov nevrološkega delovanja,

znanja, vpliva na druge dele človeške kognicije, na primer na

ker ti niso bili v neposrednem nasprotju s prvimi, ima

centralne nadzorne in izvršilne funkcije. Na primer,

ponujeni model organizacije nevronskih mrež neposredne

vsakodnevno poslušanje dveh ali več jezikov vpliva na

posledice tudi za kognitivne modele, saj predpostavlja, da so

vsa specializirana znanja modularna samo v zelo abstraktnem



32





Kaj se lahko naučimo od Jacques Mehlerja, klasičnega

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

kognitivnega znanstvenika



smislu, ter da so nujno posledica učenja in ne vrojena. Vendar

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34



Vpliv informacije o ceni na subjektivno oceno zvoka violin Influence of Price Information on the Subjective Evaluation of Violin Sound Anja Šerbec

Gimnazija Bežigrad

Peričeva ulica 4

Ljubljana, Slovenija

aanjaserbec@gmail.com

POVZETEK

more expensive was rated significantly better the second time.

The cheapest violin was rated significantly worse in the

V raziskavi sem analizirala, v kolikšni meri informacija o ceni

experiment in which the price information was given.

inštrumenta vpliva na posameznikovo subjektivno oceno zvoka.

Zanimalo me je tudi, ali so subjektivne ocene zvoka pri



glasbenikih bolj povezane s ceno violin v primerjavi z ocenami

KEYWORDS

poslušalcev, ki se z glasbo ne ukvarjajo. S poskusom sem

preverjala, če bo lažna informacija o ceni vplivala na subjektivno placebo effect, marketing, effects on sound perception,

oceno zvoka. Pri poskusu, ko cena ni bila podana, sem zaznala

assessment of violins, price information

šibko do zmerno povezanost med ceno violine in subjektivno

oceno zvoka. Pri poskusu, ko je cena bila podana, sem zaznali

visoko povezanost med ceno in subjektivno oceno zvoka.

1 UVOD

Posameznikovo vrednotenje zvoka je tako pri glasbenikih kot

Drage stvari so nam pogosto všeč. Mogoče višjo ceno

tudi pri udeležencih, ki se z glasbo ne ukvarjajo močno povezano povezujemo z boljšo kakovostjo izdelka, za nekatere pa je

z informacijo o ceni. Violina, ki sem jo enkrat predstavila z njeno posedovanje dragega izdelka statusni simbol. Zdi se, da že sama

realno prodajno ceno, drugič pa kot bistveno dražjo, je bila cena vpliva na naše vrednotenje izdelkov. V raziskavi sem

drugič ocenjena zaznavno boljše. Najcenejša violina je bila v opazovala, kako informacija o ceni vpliva na mnenje poslušalca

poskusu, v katerem je bila cena podana, ocenjena zaznavno

o zvoku violine. Zanimalo me je, če in v kolikšni meri je slabše.

poznavanje cene povezano s subjektivno oceno zvoka šestih

violin popolnoma različnih cenovnih razredov.

KLJUČNE BESEDE

Osnovna predpostavka v ekonomiji je, da je stopnja ugodja

placebo efekt, marketing, vplivi na zaznavanje, ocenjevanje

pri uživanju nekega produkta odvisna le od lastnosti tega

violin, informacija o ceni

produkta in stanja posameznika. Tako naj bi na primer užitek, ki izhaja iz uživanja pijače bil odvisen le od molekulske sestave ABSTRACT

pijače in stopnje žeje posameznika [6]. Pretekle raziskave pa so In this study, I investigated the extent to which an instrument's pokazale, da informacije iz okolja vplivajo na naše pričakovanje price information affects a person's attitude toward its sound. I in zaznavanje na senzoričnih področjih: bolečina, vid, vonj in was also interested in whether musicians' ratings of sound

tudi sluh. Kljub temu ni popolnoma znano, kako možgani

aesthetics were more strongly related to violin prices than were spremembe pričakovane vrednosti pretvorijo v spremembe

the ratings of participants who were not involved with music. I

izkušene vrednosti [10].

experimented with whether misinformation about price would

V raziskavi na Stanfordski Univerzi leta 2007 so testirancem

influence ratings of sound. In the experiment in which price was povedali, da bodo degustirali pet različnih vin in, da je namen

not mentioned, I found a low to moderate correlation between

poskusa preučiti vpliv časovnega trajanja degustacije na zaznan

violin price and sound ratings. In the experiment where price was mentioned, I found a high correlation between price and sound

okus. Eno izmed vin je bilo degustirano dvakrat: enkrat z realno ratings.

informacijo o ceni in drugič z (lažno) nizko ceno. Testiranci so bili pozvani, naj poročajo o všečnosti in intenzivnosti okusa vin.

Sound ratings correlated strongly with price information for

Rezultati so pokazali bistvene razlike v oceni všečnosti okusa both musicians and non-musicians. The violin we presented once

dveh degustacij istega vina predstavljenega z dvema različnima

with its actual retail price and a second time as being significantly cenama. Sklepamo, da informacija o ceni znatno vpliva na

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or všečnost okusa. Poskus so izvedli še enkrat, le da so tokrat classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed opazovali delovanje različnih možganskih centrov ob poskušanju

for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must vina. Izkazalo se je, da je delovanje možganskih centrov

be honored. For all other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

povezanih z sprejemanjem senzoričnih signalov in njihovo

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia predelavo različno pri dveh degustacijah istega vina, ko je informacija o cenah podana [6]. Tudi raziskava z energijskimi

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

pijačami na Stanfordski univerzi iz leta 2005 je predhodno 35

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia A. Šerbec



pokazala, da imajo določene marketinške poteze, kot je

Kljub temu, da se zaznavanje zvoka razlikuje od posameznika

določanje in spreminjanje cen vpliv na naše zaznavanje, presojo

do posameznika raziskava na UWE Bristol iz leta 2005 kaže na

in vedenje [9]. Pojav je bil poimenovan »marketinški placebo določeno stopnjo strinjanja pri kvalitativnih opisih lastnosti efekt«, saj je zelo podoben znanemu fenomenu placebo efekta v

zvoka inštrumentov pri skupini glasbenikov [4]. Glasbeniki za farmaciji [6], [9].

opis »barve« zvoka (tembre) določene violine pogosto uporabijo

»diferencialne pridevnike«. Primeri teh so: svetlost, trdost,

jasnost, tankost, polnost, nazalnost, odprtost, ostrina, celo

2 TEORETIČNE OSNOVE

»kovinskost« in »lesenost« zvoka. Glasbenik bi zvok izbrane

V prispevku nas, podobno kot v prej opisanih poskusih, zanima

violine ocenil na dimenzijah: svetel – temen, trd – mehek, jasen fenomen »placebo efekta«, le da se osredotočamo na zaznavanje

– nejasen (»umazan«), tanek – širok, poln – prazen (»na

prijetnosti zvoka.

površju«), nazalen – usten, zaprt – odprt. Umestitev zvoka

Placebo efekt je definiran kot »sprememba bolnikovega

violine na prej-naštetih dimenzijah omogoča glasbenikom bolj stanja, ki jo je mogoče pripisati simboličnem vnosu zdravljenja

poenoteno oceno zvoka izbrane violine v primerjavi z laiki.

in ne farmakološkim ali fiziološkim lastnostim zdravljenja« [3,

Uporaba naštetih lasnosti pri ocenjevanju s strani glasbenikov je

pp.1]. Kljub temu, da je pojem placebo efekt ponavadi v raziskavi nakazana pri odgovorih na vprašanje kombiniranega

uporabljen v povezavi z zdravili, je povezan z našim problemom,

tipa »Kaj je vplivalo na vašo odločitev?«. Na to vprašanje so saj opisuje vpliv informacijskega nabora iz okolja na čutne glasbeniki večkrat odgovorili s pridevniki »čistost«, »mehkoba«, izkušnje. Opisala bom tudi katere lastnosti zvoka zaznavamo.

»jasnost«, »odprtost«. Pri posameznikovi oceni pomembno

vlogo igrajo osebne preference, a v splošnem velja, da ima dobra 2.1 Teorija pričakovanja

violina svetel, mehek, jasen, širok, poln, usten in odprt zvok [1].

Teorija pričakovanja pravi, da testirančeva pričakovanja in prepričanost v dober rezultat sprožijo placebo efekt. V skladu s 3 OPIS RAZISKAVE

to teorijo bi na primer testiranec iz skupine, ki pozna ceno

pričakoval boljši zvok violin, ki so bile predstavljene kot dražje.

Kot merski instrument sem uporabila spletni anketni vprašalnik,

S prepričanostjo v dober rezultat in pristranskostjo bi jih zato ki je vseboval poseben tip vprašanja, ki je omogočilo testirancu razvrščanje violin glede na

ocenil kot boljše [3].

njihovo subjektivno oceno zvoka.

Vprašalnik je vseboval tudi zvočni zapis narejen z visoko 2.2 Klasično pogojevanje

kakovostnim snemalnikom zvoka Zoom h1. Zvočni zapis je

predstavljal posnetke lestvice in melodij, zaigranih na 6 različnih Teorija predvideva, da je placebo efekt pogojni refleks zaradi

ponavljajočih se povezav med pogojnim dražljajem (nevtralna violin (Tabela 1). Vse violine so bile posnete v istem prostoru

(predavalnica 212, UL PeF), na njih pa sem igrala z istim lokom.

komponenta) in brezpogojnim dražljajem (aktivni element) [3].

Vprašalnik je bil sestavljen iz dveh delov: v prvem delu

V našem primeru je pogojni dražljaj informacija o ceni in (Poskus 1) so bili podani zgolj posnetki melodij: izseki iz skladb brezpogojni dražljaj zvok, oziroma kakovost zvoka. Testiranci Bacha, Paganinija, Glazunova ter Mozarta. Bach je skladatelj

bi lahko nezavedno prevzeli, da imajo dražje violine boljši zvok baroka, Glazunov romantike, Mozart klasicizma, Paganini pa

in jih je posledično bolj prijetno poslušati (brezpogojni odziv).

sicer spada v romantiko, vendar igranje njegovih Cappricciov

Tako bi že sama informacija o višji ceni (pogojni dražljaj)

sprožila večjo všečnost do poslušane violine. Seveda velja tudi

ponazarja zmožnost inštrumenta, da se odzove na tehnično

obratno: če bo imel testiranec negativne izkušnje z cenejšimi zahtevnih delih. Želela sem namreč predstaviti zvok vsake

violine v različnih glasbenih slogih. Med glasbeniki namreč velja violinami, bo nižjo ceno podzavestno povezal z slabšim zvokom.

prepričanje, da nekatere violine bolje »ustrezajo« določenim 2.3 Socialni vplivi na zaznavanje in vedenje

slogom kot drugim.

Poslušalci so s funkcijo »povleci in spusti« razvrstili šest

Pomembno lahko vplivajo na zaznavanje tudi članstvo in procesi

različnih violin glede na njihovo subjektivno oceno zvoka v skupini [6]. Kljub temu, da poskus ni bil izveden v skupinah, posamezne violine. Udeleženci so violine med sabo primerjali in

ampak ga je vsak testiranec reševal sam, menim, da so socialni

jih razvrstili od najboljše do najslabše glede na njihovo oceno

dejavniki imeli močan vpliv na rezultate. Veliko ljudi je namreč estetike zvoka (Slika 1). Povprečne ocene so bile izračunane po prepričanih, da visoka cena violine kaže, da večina visoko naslednjih formulah:

vrednoti to violino. Predvidevam, da bodo namesto, da bi se



odločili avtonomno prilagodili mnenje skupini, oziroma temu,

𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛_𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛

kar menijo da je mnenje večine.

𝑖𝑖)



∑𝑁𝑁𝑗𝑗= (

1 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀

=

𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 − 𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑗𝑗(𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖)

𝑁𝑁



2.4 Lastnosti zvoka violin

N – Število razvrstitev za 𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖

Kljub temu, da se v raziskavi ukvarjam z vplivom informacije o

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 – pri Poskus 1 je enaka 6, pri Poskus 2 je enaka 7

ceni na všečnost zvoka violin in ne sámo kakovost zvoka, ne

𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑗𝑗(𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖) – razvrstitev violine i na določeno mesto moremo zanemariti precejšnje verjetnosti, da imajo dražje



violine dejansko bolj kvaliteten zvok. Violine se ocenjuje po treh Ker pa sta bili 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 pri Poskus 1 in Poskus 2 drugačni (pri dimenzijah: odzivnost, enakomernost in »glas«. Slednji je

Poskus 1 je bila 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 6, ker so testiranci razvrščali 6

izrazito subjektiven, zato vrednosti violin in kakovost zvoka ni posnetkov 6 različnih violin, pri Poskus 2 pa 7, saj so se posnetki mogoče objektivno oceniti [1].





36





Vpliv informacije o ceni na oceno zvoka

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2020, Ljubljana, Slovenia



Violine 3 ponovili), je bilo ocene potrebno normirati. Povprečne ceno violin v primerjavi z ocenami estetike zvoka v skupini ne-ocene so bile normirane od 1 do 100 po naslednji formuli:

glasbenikov?



Vprašanje 3: Ali bo napačna informacija o ceni violine (lažna

𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛

informacija, da je cenejša violina draga) vplivala na subjektivno

𝑖𝑖) =

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀

oceno zvoka pri tako glasbenikih kot tudi ne-glasbenikih?

= 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑅𝑅(

𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛 − 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑁𝑁𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀

Da bi odgovorila na Vprašanje 1 sem primerjala rezultate

𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 − 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑁𝑁𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜

Poskusa 1 in Poskusa 2. Odgovor na Vprašanje 2 sem iskala v

∗ (𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛_𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑣𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖) rezultatih Poskusa 1. Pri odgovarjanju na Vprašanje 3 sem

− 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜) + 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛)

uporabila rezultate Poskusa 2.

𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑅𝑅 – zaokroženo

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑁𝑁𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛 = 1

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀

Tabela 1: Maloprodajne cene violin

𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑛𝑛 = 100

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑁𝑁𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 = 1



Cena (EUR)

V drugem delu (Poskus 2) so bili poleg posnetkov melodij

VIOLINA 1

16 500

podani tudi posnetki lestvice a-mol in informacija o ceni. Pri tem VIOLINA 2

7 200

so bili enaki posnetki iste violine (VIOLINA 3) podani dvakrat:

VIOLINA 3

3 000

enkrat z resnično informacijo oceni (3000 evrov) in enkrat z VIOLINA 4

13 500

lažno informacijo o ceni (30.000 evrov). Posnetki lestvice so bili VIOLINA 5

15 200

dodani zato, da preusmerijo testirančevo pozornost od dejstva, da VIOLINA 6

20 000

je v Poskusu 2 navidezno bila predstavljena ena violina več.

VIOLINA 7 (VIOLINA 3)

30 000 (3 000)

Na koncu obeh poskusov so bili testiranci vprašani o tem, kaj

je vplivalo na njihovo odločitev. Vprašanje je bilo

3.1 Opis vzorca

kombiniranega tipa, nanj pa so lahko odgovorili z več odgovori:

Poskus je v večini potekal preko spleta, delno pa tudi v živo na Gimnaziji Bežigrad in Akademiji za glasbo. Vprašalnik je do

•

»jakost zvoka«

konca izpolnilo 100 ljudi, od tega 40 glasbenikov in 60 ne-

•

»barva zvoka (tembre)«

glasbenikov. Reševan je bil v Sloveniji, Makedoniji, Rusiji,

•

»dinamične razlike«

Nemčiji in Avstriji. Anketni vprašalnik je v celoti rešilo 4o žensk

•

»cena«

in 31 moških. Anketni vprašalnik je bil objavljen na neuradni

•

»drugo« (odprtega tipa)

Facebook strani dijakov in bivših dijakov Gimnazije Bežigrad,

rešili pa so ga tudi dijaki Konzervatorija za glasbo in balet

Ljubljana, študenti in profesorji Akademije za glasbo Ljubljana

Testirance sem razdelila v dve osnovni skupini: glasbeniki in

in Univerze za umetnost Gradec ter člani simfoničnega orchestra

neglasbeniki. Kot glasbeniki so bili označeni vsi, ki so na RTV Slovenija.

vprašanje »Kateri stavek vas opisuje?« odgovorili z enim izmed

stavkov:

•

»Sem profesionalen–i/-a glasben–ik/-ica in igram

inštrument – godalo.«

•

»Sem profesionalen–i/-a glasben–ik/-ica in ne igram

inštrumenta, ki je godalo.«

•

»Obiskujem akademijo za glasbo in igram inštrument

– godalo.«

•

»Obiskujem akademijo za glasbo in igram inštrument,

ki ni godalo.«

•





»Obiskujem glasbeno šolo in igram inštrument –

godalo.«

•

»Obiskujem glasbeno šolo in igram inštrument, ki ni

godalo.«

•

»Končal-a sem osnovno [in srednjo] glasbeno šolo.«

Kot ne-glasbeniki so bili označeni vsi, ki so na vprašanje »Kateri stavek vas opisuje?« odgovorili z enim izmed stavkov:

•

»Obiskoval-a sem nekaj let osnovne glasbene šole.«

•

»Ljubiteljsko se ukvarjam z glasbo.«

•

»Z glasbo se ne ukvarjam.«

Zanimala so me naslednja raziskovalna vprašanja:



Vprašanje 1: Ali se zaznavanje estetike zvoka glede na

Slika 1: Razvrščanje violin po okusu od 1 do 6 (7). Zgornja

informiranost o ceni pri obeh skupinah (glasbeniki, ne-

slika kaže frekvence, oz. kako so udeleženci razvrščali

glasbeniki) razlikuje?

violine brez informacije o ceni. Spodnja slika kaže

Vprašanje 2: Ali so subjektivne ocene zvoka pri skupini

frekvence, oz. kako so udeleženci razvrščali violine z

glasbenikov v poskusu brez informacije o ceni bolj povezane s informacijo o ceni.



37





Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

A. Šerbec



4 REZULTATI IN UGOTOVITVE

Uporabila sem Spearmanov koeficient korelacije za oceno

povezanosti med ceno violin in oceno zvoka violin v celotnem

Vpršanje 1: Ali se subjektivne ocene zvoka violin glede na vzorcu. V Poskusu 1 ni bilo statistično značilne korelacije med

informiranost o ceni pri obeh skupinah (glasbeniki, ne-

glasbeniki) razlikujeje?

spremenljivkama cena violin in ocena zvoka violin, rs = 0,564; p Graf, ki ga prikazuje Slika 1 prikazuje povprečne normirane

= 0,188; N = 6. Korelacija med spremenljivkama je bila v

ocene violin na lestvici od 1 do 100, ki so izračunane na podlagi Poskusu 1 zmerna. V Poskusu 2 sem zaznala statistično značilno

ocen violin v celotnem vzorcu (torej glasbeniki in ne-glasbeniki).

korelacijo med spremenljivkama cena in subjektivna ocena

zvoka, rs = 0,964; p = 0,0004; N = 6. Korelacija med spremenljivkama je bila v Poskusu 2 zelo močna.

Primerjava normiranih ocen violin za

To indicira, da je bila ocena zvoka v celotnem vzorcu pri

oba poskusa

Poskusu 2 povezana z informacijo o ceni violin.

70

60

60

63

Spearmanov koeficient korelacije za oceno povezanosti med

57

60

55

55

53

ceno violin in oceno zvoka violin sem izračunala za vsako 52

skupino posebaj. Pri skupini glasbenikov pri Poskusu 1 ni bilo

50

42 44

statistično pomembne korelacije med spremenljivkama cena in

37 38

39

40

subjektivna ocena zvoka, rs = 0,771; p = 0,072; N = 6. Korelacija med spremenljivkama je bila v Poskusu 1 močna. V Poskusu 2

30

sem pri skupini glasbenikov zaznala statistično pomembno

20

korelacijo med spremenljivkama cena in subjektivna ocena

zvoka, rs = 0,886; p = 0,019; N = 6. Korelacija med 10

spremenljivkama je bila v Poskusu 2 zelo močna.

0

Pri skupini neglasbenikov pri Poskusu 1 ni bilo statistično VIOLINA VIOLINA VIOLINA VIOLINA VIOLINA VIOLINA VIOLINA

pomembne korelacije med spremenljivkama cena in subjektivna

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ocena zvoka rs = 0,314; p = 0,544; N = 6. Korelacija med Poskus 1

Poskus 2

spremenljivkama je bila v Poskusu 1 šibka. V Poskusu 2 sem pri



skupini glasbenikov zaznala statistično pomembno korelacijo

Slika 2: Povprečne ocene violin vseh testirancev za oba

med spremenljivkama cena in subjektivna ocena zvoka, rs =

poskusa (z in brez informacije o ceni

0,943; p = 0,005; N = 6. Korelacija med spremenljivkama je bila v Poskusu 2 zelo močna.

Da bi ugotovila, če se ocene violin, ki so jih dali testiranci

To indicira, da je bila ocena zvoka v vsaki od skupin pri

pred in po informiranju o ceni (torej rezultati Poskusa 1 in

Poskusu 2 povezana z informacijo o ceni violin.

Poskusa 2) statistično značilno razlikujejo, sem uporabila



Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov. Ta je pokazal statistično

Tabela 3: Spearmanov koeficient korelacije za oceno

značilno razliko med rezultati Poskusa 1 in Poskusa 2 pri povezanosti med ceno violin in oceno zvoka violin pri

violinah 1, 3, 4, 5 (p < 0,05). Test ni pokazal statistično značilne skupinah glasbenikov in neglasbenikov. Statistično

razlike med rezultati Poskusa 1 in Poskusa 2 pri Violini 2 in

pomembne korelacije so označene krepko.

Violini 6 (p > 0,05). Teh izjem ne morem pojasniti.

Spearmanov

Brez Informacije

Z informacijo

Rezultati Wilcoxonovega testa predznačenih rangov

koeficient

o ceni

o ceni

nakazujejo, da se ocene večine violin glede na informiranost o

za 6 violin

ceni v celotnem vzorcu razlikujejo.

Glasbeniki

rs = 0,771,

rs = 0,886,



p = 0,072

p = 0,019

Tabela 2: Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov za pare

Neglasbeniki

rs = 0,314 ,

rs = 0,943,

ocen violin, ki so jih dali testiranci pred in po informiranju p = 0,544

p = 0,005

o ceni. Stat. pomembne vrednosti so označene krepko.





Brez informacije o

Na vprašanje »Kaj je vplivalo na vašo odločitev?« pri



ceni/

Poskusu 2 so testiranci lahko odgovorili z več odgovori. Prikazan

Wilcoxonov test

Z informacijo o ceni

delež testirancev je izbral naslednje odgovore:

VIOLINA 1

z = 2,119

•

»jakost zvoka« - 26,15%

p = 0, 034

•

»barva zvoka (tembre) – lestvica« - 44,25%

VIOLINA 2

z = 1,678

•

»barva zvoka (tembre) – melodije« - 49,28%

p = 0,092

•

»dinamične razlike« - 24,14%

VIOLINA 3

z = 3,910

•

»cena« 15,8%

p = 0,0001

•

»drugo« (odprtega tipa) -17,10%

VIOLINA 4

z = 2,208

Dejavnik, ki je po mnenju testirancev najbolj vplival na

p = 0,027

njihovo razvrstitev je bila barva zvoka (tembre) pri posnetkih

VIOLINA 5

z = 2,951

melodij (43 odgovorov). Veliko vlogo naj bi igrala tudi barva

p = 0,003

zvoka (tembre) pri lestvicah (38 odgovorov). Pod »drugo« so bili VIOLINA 6

z = 0,528

pogosti odgovori: »alikvoti«,

»izenačenost registrov«,

p = 0,597

»odzivnost« ter »intonacija«. Zanimivo je, da je cena med





38





Vpliv informacije o ceni na oceno zvoka

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2020, Ljubljana, Slovenia



dejavniki, ki po mnenju testirancev vplivajo na njihovo



razvrstitev, po pogostosti na zadnjem mestu z le 14 odgovori..

Tabela 3: Wilcoxonov test za VIOLINO 3/7 celoten vzorec.



Stat. pomembne vrednosti so označene krepko.

Vprašanje 2 : Ali so subjektivne ocene zvoka violin pri skupini Brez informacije o Brez informacije o

glasbenikov v poskusu brez informacije o ceni bolj povezane s ceni/

ceni/

ceno violin v primerjavi z ocenami estetike zvoka v skupini ne-

Wilcoxonov

Z informacijo o

Z lažno

glasbenikov?

ceni: 3000

informacijo o

Izračunan Spearmanov koeficient korelacije med ceno violin

test

ceni: 30.000

in oceno zvoka violin pri skupini glasbenikov je pri Poskusu 1

VIOLINA

z = 3,886

z = 0,247

kazal močno korelacijo (Tabela 3).

3/7 p = 0,0001

p = 0,802

Spearmanov koeficient korelacije med ceno violin in oceno



zvoka violin je pri skupini neglasbenikov pri Poskusu 1 kazal

Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov za pare ocen violin, ki

zgolj zmerno korelacijo med spremenljivkama (Tabela 3).

so jih dali testiranci pred in po informiranju o ceni sem izračunala Ker pa noben od omenjenih koeficientov ni statistično

tudi za vsako skupino posebej.

značilen, ne morem poročati o povezanosti med

Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov ni indiciral statistično

spremenljivkama pri obeh skupinah.

značilne razlike v ocenah zvoka pri skupini glasbenikov pred in

po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana resnična informacija o Poskus 1

ceni. Ocena zvoka po informiranju o resnični ceni ni bila

zaznavno nižja, z = 0,809; p = 0,381.

80

Zanimivo je, da je Wilcoxonov test

64

predznačenih rangov

57

59

57

60

54

indici

60

52

ral statistično značilno razliko v ocenah zvoka pri skupini

47

42

glasbenikov pred in po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana

41

3538

40

lažna informacija o ceni. Ocena zvoka po informiranju o resnični ceni je bila zaznavno višja, z = 2,505; p = 0,012.

20

Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov je indiciral statistično

značilno razliko v ocenah zvoka pri skupini neglasbenikov pred

in po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana resnična informacija VIOLINA 1VIOLINA 2VIOLINA 3VIOLINA 4VIOLINA 5 VIOLINA 6

o ceni. Ocena zvoka po informiranju o resnični ceni je bila GLASBENIK

NEGLASBENIK

zaznavno nižja, z = 4,139; p = 0,000003.



Presenetljivo je tudi, da Wilcoxonov test predznačenih

Slika 3: Primerjava povprečnih normiranih ocen violin

rangov ni indiciral statistično značilne razlike v ocenah zvoka pri skupin glasbeniki in ne-glasbeniki pri Poskusu 1

skupini neglasbenikov pred in po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana resnična informacija o ceni. Ocena zvoka po

Vprašanje 3: Ali bo napačna informacija o ceni violine (lažna informiranju o resnični ceni ni bila zaznavno nižja, z = 1,267; p informacija, da je cenejša violina draga) vplivala na oceno zvoka

= 0,205.

pri tako glasbenikih kot tudi ne-glasbenikih?

Rezultati nakazujejo, da je lažna informacija o ceni bolj



vplivala na glasbenike v primerjavi z neglasbeniki.

Da bi ugotovila, če je razlika v ocenah zvoka pri celotnem vzorcu pred in po informiranju o ceni (enkrat z resnično

informacijo oceni in enkrat z lažno) statistično značilna sem Tabela 4: Wilcoxonov test za VIOLINO 3/7 za glasbenike in

uporabila Wilcoxonov test test predznačenih rangov.

neglasbenike. Stat. pomembne vrednosti so označene



Wilcoxonov test predznač

krepko.

enih rangov je nakazoval na

statistično značilno

Wilcoxonov test

Brez informacije

Brez informacije

razliko v ocenah zvoka pri celotnem vzorcu

za

o ceni /

o ceni /

pred in po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana resnična informacija o ceni. Ocena zvoka po informiranju o resnični ceni

3/7 violino

Z informacijo o

Z lažno informacijo o

ceni 3.000 EUR

ceni 30.000 EUR

je bila zaznavno nižja, z = 3,886; p = 0,0001.

Presenetljivo pa je, da Wilcoxonov test predznačenih rangov

Glasbeniki

z = 0,809

z = 2,505

ni indiciral statistično značine razlike v ocenah zvoka pri p = 0,381

p = 0,012

celotnem vzorcu pred in po informiranju o ceni, ko je bila podana Neglasbeniki

z = 4,139

z = 1,267

lažna informacija o ceni (zlagano visoka). Ocena zvoka po

p = 0,000003

p = 0,205

informiranju o lažni ceni ni bila zaznavno višja, z = 0,247; p =

0,802.



5 MOŽNE IZBOLJŠAVE

Dejstvo, da je bil anketni vprašalnik večinoma reševan preko

spleta in ne v živo pa ima nekaj pomanjkljivosti. Testiranci so pri poslušanju zvočnih posnetkov violin imeli različno kakovostno

opremo (zvočniki). Testiranci z boljšo opremo so tako lahko bolj natančno slišali razlike v lastnostih zvoka med violinami. Nekaj 39

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia A. Šerbec



pomanjkljivosti pa je bilo tudi v pripravi samega vprašalnika:

razlike, idr. Veliko vlogo igrajo tudi osebne preference, zato je izpolnjevanje vprašalnika je zaradi dolžine posnetkov vzelo vsaj določanje vrednosti violine nekakšna »siva cona«. V poskusu 12 minut. Posledično del testirancev ni rešil vprašalnika v celoti, sem opazovala vpliv faktorja, ki ni neposredno povezan z

kar je močno zmanjšalo obseg vzorca. Možna posledica je tudi

lastnostmi zvoka: informacija o ceni. Raziskava zato omogoča

to, da je udeleženim proti koncu poskusa zmanjkovalo

nekoliko provokativen pogled v svet prodaje in kupovanja violin, pozornosti (in potrpljenja) in so zato violine ocenjevali naključno ter je uporabna tako za izdelovalce in prodajalce kot za kupce

ali po informaciji o ceni. Razlog za daljše posnetke je bila želja, violin.

da pri vsaki violini predstavim njen zven v različnih stilih preko Uporabna je tudi na področju psihologije v marketingu, saj

melodij iz različnih obdobji glasbene umetnosti.

nakazuje, da informacije iz okolja vplivajo na naša pričakovanja Kot moteča spremenljivka, bi lahko deloval tudi vpliv

povezana z vrednostjo in na to kako poročamo o izkušnjah na

izvajalca: ker sem bila sama izvajalka, nisem bila enako

senzoričnih področjih, natančneje na področju sluha.

»navajena« na vse igrane violine. Nekatere violine so bile redno Predvidevam, da bi spoznanja raziskave lahko prenesli še na

servisirane, strune na njih so bile nove in bile so »igrane«, druge druga senzorična področja, kot so okus, vid, vonj.

pa ne. Vsi našteti faktorji zaznavno vplivajo na kakovost zvoka

violine.

REFERENCE

Da bi poskus izboljšala, bi ga izvedla še enkrat, z nekaj

[1]

Bissinger, G. (2008). Structural acoustics of good and bad violins. The spremembami: vse violine bi servisirala in »uigrala«. Da izničim Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 124(3), 1764-1773.

vpliv lastne afinitete do določenih vi

[2]

Brody, H. (1981). The Lie That Heals: The Ethics of Giving Palcebos. Soc.

olin, bi tokrat posnela

Resp.: Journalism L. Med. , 7, 27.

igranje violinista, ki na vse violine igra prvič. Uporabila bi bolj

[3]

Cho, H. J., Hotopf, M., & Wessely, S. (2005). The placebo response in the treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome: a systematic review and meta-kakovosten snemalnik zvoka. Poskus bi najraje izvedla v živo in

analysis. Psychosomatic Medicine, 67(2), 301–313.

tako zagotovila, da vsi udeleženci poslušajo posnetke pod

[4]

Darke, G. (2005, March). Assessment of timbre using verbal attributes.

enakimi pogoji (enako kakovostne slušalke/zvočnik). Zanimivo

In Conference on Interdisciplinary Musicology. Montreal, Quebec. sn.

bi bilo tudi razširiti poskus na področje nevro

[5]

Karmarkar, U. R., & Plassmann, H. (2019). Consumer neuroscience: Past,

-ergonomije in z

present, and future. Organizational Research Methods, 22(1), 174.

slikanjem možganov z metodo funkcijske magnetne resonance

[6]

Kompare, A., Stražišar, M., Dogša, I., Vec, T., & Curk, J.

(2019). Psihologija: spoznanja in dileme: učbenik za psihologijo v 4.

(fMRI) opazovati razlike v delovanju možganov testirancev pri

letniku gimnazijskega izobraževanja. DZS.

poslušanju violin in odločanju.

[7]

Plassmann, H., O'Doherty, J., Shiv, B., & Rangel, A. (2008). Marketing actions can modulate neural representations of experienced

Ob ponovnem izvajanju poskusa bi v anketni vprašalnik

pleasantness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(3), vključili več vprašanj o lastnostih testirancev. Tako bi vzorec 1050–1054.

razdelili na več smiselnih podskupin, ki bi jih primerjali med

[8]

Schacter, D., Gilbert, D., Wegner, D., & Hood, B. M. (2011). Psychology: European Edition. Macmillan International Higher Education.

seboj. (Npr. “Na testirance, mlajše od 25 let, je informacija o ceni

[9]

Shiv, B., Carmon, Z., & Ariely, D. (2005). Placebo effects of marketing vplivala bolj/manj, kot na testirance starejše od 25 let.”)

actions: Consumers may get what they pay for. Journal of marketing Research, 42(4), 383–393

Znano je, da je ocena kakovosti zvoka inštrumenta zelo

[10]

Smith, P. L., & Ratcliff, R. (2004). Psychology and neurobiology of kompleksna tema: pri njej igrajo vlogo barva, jakost, dinamične

simple decisions. Trends in neurosciences, 27(3), 161–168





40

AI Art: Merely a Possibility or Already a Reality?



Tadej Todorović



Janez Bregant

Faculty of Arts

Faculty of Arts

University of Maribor



University of Maribor

Maribor, Slovenia

Maribor, Slovenia

tadej.todorovic@gmail.com



janez.bregant@um.com





ABSTRACT

[1]. Nevertheless, the AI art debate is a debate about whether AI can produce art, so it has to presuppose that there are in fact

The paper discusses the compatibility of AI art with various

works of art and that there is an intelligible way or definition that definitions of art within the analytic tradition, namely functional, can capture this phenomenon. Not presupposing this would

historical, and institutional ones. For every definition, we first render the entire debate meaningless.

offer a general overview, discuss whether AI art could be

However, to remain as metaphysically non-committing as

compatible with it, detect possible problems, and finally offer

possible, we decided to analyse the compatibility of AI art with real-life examples that could arguably serve as an example of AI various most popular definitions. We excluded some more basic

that fits the given definition. In the final section, we address the definitions, namely single property definitions, such as

issue of intentionality for AI art, which seems to be in one way representational, expressive, and formal definitions; these seem or another part of all discussed definitions and which seems to be to have fallen out of fashion, undoubtedly because they are “not the biggest challenge for AI art.

difficult to find fault with” [1].

Thus, we first analyse the compatibility of AI art with

KEYWORDS

functional definitions, followed by historical and institutional Artificial intelligence,

art, functionalism, historicism,

definitions of art, and offering existing AI art examples along the institutionalism, intentionalism.

way. Afterwards, we also offer a response to probably the biggest obstacle to AI art, i.e. intentionality.

1 Introduction

Today, there are hardly any doubts that artificial intelligence (AI) 2 AI and functional definitions of art

can perform many tasks much better than us, all the way from

Functional definitions of art define art in terms of some function playing chess, backgammon, or checkers to intelligent

or intended function. Usually, the function is connected with

scheduling and pricing systems in airline reservations, proving some aesthetic properties, such as the aesthetic experience we

theorems, or solving equations. And as the AIs are getting better undergo when admiring a work of art, e.g., catharsis or simply

and better at these domain-specific tasks, we, with more and

some aesthetic judgments or experiences. In this sense,

more uncertainty, diligently move the goalposts, stating that AI functional definitions are more traditional, and have issues

will surely not be able to beat us at the next mark. No wonder

accommodating, e.g., modern art, like Duchamp’s ready-mades

then that one of the last bastions of human uniqueness, i.e.

(although some have argued that ready-mades have aesthetic

creativity, best shown through art and its creations, is fiercely properties [2]). Despite their flaws, such definitions seem to be defended against the possibility of AI art. What should

perfect for accommodating AI art. Beardsley’s definition can

philosophy say about that? Are there any definitional obstacles

serve as a good example of a functional aesthetic definition. It to admitting AI art? Are there already existing examples of AI

states that an artwork is “either an arrangement of conditions

art that might fit various definitions of art?

intended to be capable of affording an experience with marked

Definitions of art remain a controversial subject in analytic

aesthetic character or (incidentally) an arrangement belonging to philosophy. There has been much discussion about the value of

a class or type of arrangements that is typically intended to have the definition of art and many sceptical concerns about its

this capacity” [3].

existence in the first place, starting all the way back in the 1950s But which conditions evoke such feelings and experiences?



To our knowledge, a satisfactorily account of them has not been

given. Nevertheless, in the context of AI art, there seem to be no Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or formal obstacles against AI creating (art) works that meet such

distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice conditions. In fact, this is not only conceivable, but has arguably and the ful citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of already been done. A prime example is the “Creative Adversarial

this work must be honored. For al other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

Network” (CAN) [4], the design of which was motivated by Information Society 2020, 5–9 October 2020, Ljubljana, Slovenia Berlyne’s theory [5] inspired by his most significant arousal-

© 2020 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

41

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia T. Todorović and J. Bregant



raising properties for aesthetics: “novelty, surprisingness,

AI art in the final section. The question that we have to answer complexity, ambiguity, and puzzlingness”.

is thus whether AI artworks could stand in an appropriate

The CAN project proved very successful. The authors ran a

relationship to established artworks and, more importantly,

series of experiments (Turing style tests with human subjects)

whether they already do. Similar to the problem in functional

with the created artworks to test how the AI measures up to

definitions, this should not present an insurmountable problem

human artists. The experiment III is the most relevant for

for AI art. It is not only conceivable that AIs could use a family-functional definitions. In it, they asked human subjects to rate the resemblance process to create artworks, AIs already utilize a artworks by CAN and artworks by human artists (set of paintings

process that looks extremely similar. Alexander Mordvintsev,

from a display at Art Basel 2016). The paintings were rated on a the software engineer behind DeepDream, Google’s neural

scale of 1-5 (5 being the best) on intentionality, visual structure, network, writes as follows, “We train an artificial neural network communication, and inspiration. Not only did the human subjects

by showing it millions of training examples and gradually

fail to notice that CAN paintings were not made by human artists, adjusting the network parameters until it gives the classifications they outperformed human artists in all metrics. Of course, the

we want” [10].

size of the experiment was rather small (21 participants), so the The already mentioned CAN is an even better example: it

results are not statistically powerful; however, as the authors uses a slightly different approach because its purpose is to create state, “the fact that subjects found the images generated by the artworks that would be indistinguishable from human artworks.

machine intentional, visually structured, communicative, and

The CAN is comprised of two adversary networks, a

inspiring, with similar levels to actual human art, indicates that discriminator and a generator. A discriminator is “trained” on

subjects see these images as art!” [4]

human art samples, so it has a reference of art images,

Functional definitions do not require anything but the

accompanied with styles and labels. The generator then creates

realization of certain functional, i.e. aesthetic, properties, which new works of art, trying to accomplish two things: the first is to makes them tailor-made for AI art. We believe it is safe to claim generate works that the discriminator would recognize as works

that if one subscribes to such a definition, they would be hard-

of art, i.e., it tries to create art that fits into the already-existing pressed to find an argument against including the already-styles. However, if it did only that, it would just emulate

existing AI artworks.

artworks, similar to an art forger. So, the second task of the CAN

generator is to confuse the discriminator regarding the style of the work created. So, “on one hand it tries to fool the

3 AI and historical definitions of art

discriminator to think it is ‘art’, and on the other hand it tries to Historical definitions are another popular way of understanding

confuse the discriminator about the style of the work generated”

art. The core message of historical definitions is that an artwork

[4]. In other words, the neural network has to navigate between

“is standing in some specified art-historical relation to some

the Scylla, which is getting recognized as art, and Charybdis,

specified earlier artworks” [1], which is similar to family-

which is generating works that are “style-ambiguous”, trying to

resemblance theories in certain aspects [6]. Moreover, and this is find the sweet spot where the painting still resembles other works what distinguishes historical definitions from functional or

of art but it is still original. And considering the experimental institutional definitions: proponents of historical definitions do results introduced in the previous section, CAN is apparently

not commit to a trans-historical concept of art, i.e. the concept doing an extremely good job at it.

that would capture commonalities across various classes of

The idea of AI art being compatible with the historical

artworks in distinct historical periods, e.g. some stable core of definitions is thus not only conceivable or possible; just like with aesthetic properties that are present in all art movements

functional definitions of art, we could reasonably state that there throughout the history. Thus, historical definitions present “an are already examples of AI art that fit the criteria of historical alternative to the definitional approach” [7]. One of the most

definitions.

recognised historical definition of art is offered by Levinson,

who defines a work of art as “something that has been intended

by someone for regard or treatment in some overall way that

4 AI and institutional definitions of art

some earlier or pre-existing artwork or artworks are or were

The institutional definition of art is probably one of the most

correctly regarded or treated” [8].

influential and simultaneously one of the most criticized

There seem to be two common elements in historical

definitions of art of the 20th century. Many have argued that “the definitions (even though proponents of historical definitions

definition’s obvious circularity is vicious” [1]; nevertheless, it understand their reasoning as an alternative to the definitional has remained fairly popular. The groundwork for institutionalism approach, we will refer to historical “definitions” as definitions was laid by Danto [11]; however, Dickie’s institutional definition for the sake of simplicity and because our argument does not

is probably the most influential. The spirit of institutionalism can hinge on this): let us call the first one the family-resemblance be summed up by the following quote: “a work of art is an artifact element, and the second one the intentional element, despite the which has had conferred upon it the status of candidate for

fact that some historical definitions do not require the intentional appreciation by the artworld” [12]. In other words, something is element [9].

a work of art if people within the artworld grant it such a status.

In this section, we will focus on the family-resemblance

The definition is more elaborate, and has been expanded by

element; however, we will address intentionality as a problem for Dickie in his more recent work, so it now consists of five





42

AI Art: Merely a Possibility or Already a Reality?

Information Society 2021, 7–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



interlocking conditions: “(1) An artist is a person who

almost as difficult as arguing that the path that was created

participates with understanding in the making of a work of art.

unintentionally somehow differs as an artifact from the

(2) A work of art is an artifact of a kind created to be presented intentionally created path. In short, if humans recognize

to an artworld public. (3) A public is a set of persons the members something as an artifact and behave as if it is an artifact, then of which are prepared in some degree to understand an object

why should we not count it as one? The idea that something is an which is presented to them. (4) The artworld is the totality of all artifact if recognized as an artifact is also compatible with

artworld systems. (5) An artworld system is a framework for the

Dickie’s institutionalism since, according to him, “anything

presentation of a work of art by an artist to an artworld public”

brought into an art space as a candidate for appreciation becomes

[12].

thereby ‘artefactualized’” [17].

For brevity’s sake, we will only focus on the premises that

The only question that remains to answer is whether there are

seem problematic for AI art, i.e., premises (1) and (2). Premise examples of AI art that pass fit the institutional definition. And, (1) seems problematic, as AI is obviously not a person. However, in fact, there are. Jeff Clune decided to test the level of artworks the context has to be considered here; the authors of the 20th

produced by Evolving Artificial Intelligence Lab’s deep neural

century assumed that “the artist is always human, without

networks (DNN), submitting the artworks to the University of

exploring much whether non-humans can create art” [13]. This

Wyoming’s 40th Annual Juried Student Exhibition, “which

seems fairly anthropocentric in this day and age, and we are

accepted 35.5% of its submissions” [18]. Its artworks were not

confident that most theorists would agree that a being with the

only accepted, but also among the “21.3% of submissions to

same or greater understanding in the making of a work of art

receive an award” [18], and, what is perhaps most important for

(e.g., aliens) would still be considered artists. Therefore, the an institutional definition of art, were displayed at the

problem does not seem to be not being human, but rather not

university’s art museum. So not only can we say that there does

possessing the capacity to understand and partake in the making

not seem to be a good reason against AI art in the framework of

of a work of art. This is closely (if not completely) related to the institutional definition of art, we could arguably claim that AI intentionality, which we address in the next section, so we will art is already here.

put it aside for now.

The second premise might also pose some problems. There

seem to be two separate questions here: what counts as an artifact 5 AI and intentionality

and is an AI made object an artifact. So what is an artifact?

Some sort of intentionality component was present in almost all

Hilpien’s definition should serve our goals: “artifacts are

analysed definitions. The idea that something can only count as

physical objects which have been manufactured for a certain

art if it was produced intentionally could thus be compatible with purpose or intentionally modified for a certain purpose” [14].

all analysed definitions. Intentionality is aboutness, it is “power Notice that such a definition “does not rule out the possibility that of minds and mental states to be about, to represent, or to stand at least some things made by non-human animals are artifacts”

for, things, properties and states of affairs” [19]. It is hard to

[15]. E.g. “[b]eavers /…/ might be thought to intentionally

imagine that an organism or a system would possess such powers

construct dams in order to create ponds” [15]. On the other hand, without consciousness. Even consciousness is not sufficient for

some more rigid behaviours of other animals, like webs woven

intentionality: we agree that animals (most animals) are

by spiders, might not count as artifacts. Paths can serve as an

conscious, but they (or babies) do not possess intentionality, as even more ambiguous example. They are often created

intentionality belongs to higher order cognition. So, we cannot unintentionally, when people take the same short-cut across the

possibly ascribe intentionality to AI, as we have no reason to

university lawn over and over again: but, as Preston argues, “/…/

think it is even conscious.

what is the point of saying that such a path is not an artifact, Nevertheless, we believe intentionality is problematic as a

whereas an identical one that was created intentionally by exactly condition for artworks. Here’s why. Definitions of art usually

the same process is? Moreover, what would it take to make the

include intentionality to exclude natural phenomena being art.

erstwhile non-artifactual path into an artifact? Would it be

However, intentionality can be understood in two ways. We can

enough to notice and approve it? Or would I have to intentionally understand it in the narrower sense of producing and expressing

maintain it, by sweeping it clean of leaves, for instance?” [15]

a particular idea that the artist has, or we can understand it in a The line has to be drawn somewhere, and it is hard to imagine

much broader, abstract sense of simply creating a work of art. If that the line will not be, in some sense, arbitrary.

one stick to the former, this already excludes many art

So, are AI made objects artifacts? If we dismiss the artifacts

movements. Surrealism greatly emphasized automatism, which

debate because it seems arbitrary, then it does not matter. If one is “perhaps the most famous of their [surrealists’s] techniques for insists on the artifact/non-artifact distinction, a proponent of such evading conscious control of the artistic process” [20]. Breton distinction has to first offer a good reason in favour of it. Even if defines Surrealism as “Psychic automatism in its pure state, by

such a reason could be provided, they have to answer the

which one proposes to express /…/ the actual functioning of

following question: how to classify AI object that are

thought /…/ in the absence of any control exercised by reason,

indistinguishable from human artifacts? If someone not familiar

exempt from any aesthetic or moral concern” [21]. So not only

with The Painting Fool [16] discovered a painting made by it,

did the surrealists want to create artworks in the absence of

they would, without a doubt, classify it as a (human) artifact. So reason and intention, they saw “reason as a guard barring entry

why should we revoke that status once we discover that there was to this storehouse” [20].

no intention involved in the production of the image? It would be 43

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia T. Todorović and J. Bregant



Defenders of intentionality can quickly offer the following

REFERENCES

retort: even if one admits that surrealists’ process for creating art

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Adajian, Thomas. 2018. “The Definition of Art”. In Edward N. Zalta (Ed.), was not intentional in the narrow sense, they nevertheless had

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[2]

Lind, Richard. 1992. “The Aesthetic Essence of Art”. Journal of abstract “impulse” or “urge” to create a work of art, which AI

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Beardsley, Monroe. 1982. The Aesthetic Point of View. Ithaca, New York: or valued such broad intentionalism; in fact, some have been

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Elgammal, Ahmed, Liu, Bingchen, Elhoseiny, Mohamed, Mazzone,

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Berlyne, Daniel Ellis. 1971. Aesthetics and psychobiology. Appleton-artistic traditions, an idea which suited many modern artists /…/

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[6]

Wittgenstein, Ludwig. 1953. Philosophical Investigation s. G.E.M.

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Carroll, Noel. 1993. “Historical Narratives and the Philosophy of Art”.

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[8]

Levinson. 2007. “Artworks as Artifacts.”. In E. Margolis and S. Laurence what they had in mind was this broader concept of creating art.

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[9]

Stock, Kathleen and Thomson-Jones, Katherine. 2008. New Waves in Aesthetics. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

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[10]

Mordvintsev, Alexander. 2015. “Inceptionism: Going Deeper into Neural intention in the narrow sense then this would exclude movements

Networks”.

Google AI Blog. Available at:

https://ai.googleblog.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-like Surrealism, and therefore should not be a necessary

neural.html.

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[11]

Danto, Arthur. 1981. The Transfiguration of the Commonplace.

broader sense then such a concept will differ massively over

Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

[12]

Dickie, George. 1974. Art and the Aesthetic: An Institutional Analysis.

cultures and individuals, especially if we find value in

Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

“primitive” art. If modern artists cherished and valued art

[13]

Hertzmann, Aaron. 2018. “Can Computers Create Art?”. Arts 7 (2): 18.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/arts7020018.

produced by children and the “insane”, which lack intentionality

[14]

Hilpinen, Risto. 1992. “Artifacts and Works of Art”. Theoria, 58(1), pp.

in the broader sense altogether, then this should also not be a 58–82. DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-2567.1992.tb01155.x.

[15]

Preston, Beth. 2020. “Artifact”. In Edward N. Zalta (Ed.), The Stanford necessary condition for artworks.

Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Fall 2020. URL =

Throughout this paper, we have shown examples of AI

<https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2020/entries/artifact/>.

artworks that were not only appreciated as art, but which also

[16]

Colton Simon. 2012. “The Painting Fool: Stories from Building an Automated Painter”. In John McCormack and Mark d’Inverno (Eds.) won prizes, and arguably outperformed human artists. Spectators

Computers and Creativity. Berlin: Springer. DOI:

recognized such works as intentional, inspiring, and

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31727-9_1

[17]

Slater, Barry Hartley. “Aesthetics”. In James Fieser and Bradley Dowden communicative. Similar to “primitive” art, AI was able to

(Eds.),

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Understanding intentionality in the narrow sense excludes too

[18]

Shein, Esther. 2017. “Computing the Arts”. Communications of the ACM, 60(4), pp. 17–19. DOI: 10.1145/3048381.

much from the world of art, and understanding it in the broader

[19]

Jacob, Pierre. 2019. “Intentionality”. In Edward N. Zalta (Ed.), The sense does not allow an objective definition of art: the concept of Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Winter 2019. URL =

<https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2019/entries/intentionality/>.

this artistic impulse, as seen with Primitivism, just varies too

[20]

Little, Stephen. 2004. Isms: Understanding art. New York: Universe.

much across cultures and individuals to enable an unbiased

[21]

Breton, André. 1969. Manifestoes of Surrealism. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press

description of art. As such, it would seem more appropriate to



judge works of art on their external properties, not the intentions of the artists.

We can confidently say that AI (art) works can already pass

some kind of the so-called Turing test in the world of art,

something that perhaps many post-modern or contemporary

human works of art would not. And whereas some people see AI

art as blasphemous, we see it as potentially offering us new

insight into our understanding of art. Nevertheless, it seems that whatever objection AI defeats, the goal-post always moves

further away. Simon Colton wrote (about his creation, the

Painting Fool) that “it is our hope that one-day people will have to admit that the Painting Fool is creative because they can no

longer think of a good reason why it is not” [16]. Similarly,

hopefully one-day people will have to admit that AI can produce

art, because they can no longer think of a good reason why it

could not.





44

Compliance with COVID-19 preventive behaviors and proneness to cognitive biases

Manca Toporišič Gašperšič†



Nataša Grof

Undergraduate Psychology



Poljane grammar school

Program



Strossmayerjeva 1

Faculty of Arts, University of

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Ljubljana (Slovenia)



natasa.grof@gimnazija-

manca.verano@gmail.com

poljane.com





ABSTRACT

Research so far has extensively focused on linking certain

personal traits to compliance with behavioral recommendations.

Due to common non-compliance with behavioral hygiene

Extraversion has therefore been negatively correlated to

recommendations to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the younger

compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures, whereas

generation has often been regarded as a catalyst of the current

conscientiousness is believed to be positively correlated to

pandemic. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to determine compliance [2]. At the same time, low levels of empathy and

the connection between proneness to specific cognitive biases

antisocial traits are linked to noncompliance with containment

and compliance with COVID-19 preventive recommendations in

measures [3, 4]. On the other hand, current literature has offered high school students. Our results indicate that decision myopia is inadequate understanding of the cognitive factors of behavioral

positively correlated to non-compliance with COVID-19

non-compliance. In this study, we try to theoretically and

containment measures. Surprisingly, no link has been found

empirically bridge this research gap. We therefore undertake to

between risk aversion and compliance to self-protective

examine certain cognitive biases we believe might be related to

recommendations, whilst individuals who are more prone to

engaging in self-protective behavior.

belief bias report greater compliance with COVID-19 preventive

behaviors. The results clearly indicate that proneness to cognitive Cognitive biases and their possible correlation with

biases is somewhat important but not a decisive factor of

preventive behavior

adherence to preventive measures.

Framing is defined in the framework of prospect theory, which

predicts that people are inconsistent when evaluating losses and KEYWORDS

gains. In particular, when faced with losses, people typically tend to engage in more risk-seeking behavior than when faced with

COVID-19, preventive behavioral measures, compliance,

cognitive biases, high school students

gains [5, 6]. In consequence, more negative, loss-emphasizing

information may result in greater risk-taking decision making.

Adherence to even the most basic hygienic measures which aim

1 INTRODUCTION

to limit the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is to a

certain extent a decision based on one’s risk attitude. In the

1.1 Theoretical background

current pandemic, the most recurrent example of framing losses

is enumerating the number of lives lost due to COVID-19.

Known psychological correlates to compliance with

Emphasizing saved lives, is on the other hand, an example of

behavioral interventions

framing gains.

With the rise of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 variants and

However, in addition to this typical framing context, some

related vaccine hesitancy trends, basic behavioral hygienic

authors have already pointed out other framing types. There have measures (such as wearing masks, frequent hand washing, as

been indications that different countries framed the outbreak

well as physical distancing) have remained the fundamental tools differently at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in 2020.

to contain the spread of the virus. However, evidently certain

Whilst Western countries focused more on framing COVID-19

individuals do not comply to these behavioral recommendations

as a respiratory disease, similar to the seasonal flu, Asian

[1], thus probably contributing to the spread of the coronavirus.

countries compared the novel coronavirus to the SARS virus – a

Identifying factors that are linked to compliance with behavioral difference in framing that supposedly contributed to the great

recommendations and restrictions is thus extremely important.

success of Asian countries in flattening the initial curves of new infections [7].



Risk aversion is another important notion, defined in the

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or framework of prospect theory. It is a cognitive bias, best

classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or described as a constant inclination to select the most certain and distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the ful citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of reliable option, even when there are more profitable (but at the this work must be honored. For al other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

same time riskier) options available [8]. Current theory stipulates that people more prone to this bias, tend to be more compliant

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

with COVID-19 measures [9].

45

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia Toporišič Gašperšič & Grof



On the other hand, not engaging in self-protective behavior

H2: Participants, prone to belief bias, report lower

may not only be connected to one’s risk attitudes, but also to their compliance with COVID-19 containment behavioral

lack of reasoning and unwillingness to incorporate new evidence

recommendations.

into their thought processes. In syllogistic reasoning, belief bias H3: There is a positive correlation between compliance with is described as the tendency “to rely on prior beliefs rather than behavioral guidelines and loss aversion.

to fully obey logical principles [10].” In other words, it means H4: Decision myopia is negatively correlated with

being constrained by your own opinions and predispositions. In

compliance with behavioral recommendations to contain the

response, acquiring new, accurate, and unbiased information can

spread of COVID-19.

be extremely difficult for individuals who are especially prone to this cognitive bias [11]. And since the COVID-19 pandemic has

often been referred to as a pandemic of misinformation [12],

2 METHODOLOGY

possessing factual evidence that may be connected with our

health-related decisions is surely of utmost importance.

2.1 Participants and procedure

In contrast, decision myopia or the present bias “is the

To determine the cognitive factors of non-compliance with

nonlinear and inconstant tendency of many individuals to prefer

behavioral guidelines in the younger generation, the generation

a smaller sooner pay-off over a larger future pay-off [13].”

often proclaimed to be reluctant towards the epidemiological

Favoring smaller and sooner rewards over long-term ones has

restrictions [1], our study exclusively focused on this age group.

been a recurrent phenomenon of the pandemic. During the

The study thus included 83 participants – all students at Poljane pandemic, we have witnessed how many people have

Grammar School, aged from 15 to 19 years old. However, as

disproportionately ignored social distancing guidelines in order three participants failed to complete the study, their results were to socially interact with others. However, since social gatherings excluded from the final analysis. The majority (75%) of

are known to lead to a spike in coronavirus cases, this a very

participants identified themselves as female, 24% defined

short-sighted move on various levels since it is believed to

themselves as male, whilst the remaining 1% did not wish to

additionally contribute to lives lost. In addition, long-lasting disclose their gender. Although this gender structure is not

draconian lockdowns to contain the spread of the virus limiting

typical of the general population, it is typical of Poljane Grammar in-person contacts are often imposed to restrict such gatherings.

School.

The empirical study was conducted on 18th and 19th February

1.2 Overall aim and hypotheses

2021 via the Slovenian survey tool 1ka. Since the study took The key objective of the study is to shed light on the relationship place during the national COVID-19 lockdown and in-person

between framing, belief bias, risk aversion, and decision myopia learning restrictions, the subjects completed the study in the

to non-compliance with behavioral recommendations1 to contain course of their class meetings that were held online, and were a the spread of the coronavirus. According to the presented theory, part of their distance-learning schedule. All participants were

we introduce several hypotheses. On account of framing effects

informed about and consented to the general purpose of the

and their role in risky decision making, we hypothesize:

study, and were acquainted with the fact that their participation H1a: Participants who are exposed to the framing of losses, in the research was entirely voluntary and anonymous.

will make riskier choices than participants who are exposed to

While completing the empirical questionnaire, they were

the framing of gains in the neutral condition.

supervised by the researcher via Zoom, the online video

H1b: Participants who are exposed to the framing of losses conferencing platform used by their high school. Whilst the

when seasonal flu is mentioned, will make riskier choices than

research was being carried out, all participants were required to participants who are exposed to the framing of gains when virus

turn on their camera. Moreover, all the participants were notified SARS is mentioned.

that any communication among them was prohibited since it

H1c: Participants who are exposed to the framing of gains in could adversely affect the results. To prevent interpersonal

the neutral condition, are less likely to opt for the riskier option communication among the participants, we carefully set the

than participants who are exposed to the framing of gains when

Zoom chat settings so that they prevented participants from

the SARS virus is mentioned.

communicating with each other. At the same time, a direct online H1d: Participants who are exposed to the framing of losses chat communication channel between each participant and the

in the neutral condition, are less likely to opt for the riskier option researcher was established. Thus, students participating in the than participants who are exposed to the framing of losses when

study were able to point out certain technical issues or other

the SARS virus is mentioned.

concerns directly to the researcher without disrupting others.

Moreover, our other hypotheses are as follows:

Furthermore, students were not externally motivated in any way



1 In this paper, we distinguish between basic behavioral recommendations to behavioral recommendations can be epidemiologically as successful as restrictive contain the spread of the coronavirus (for instance, hand washing, mask wearing, containment measures, provided that individuals adhere to these recommendations, and maintaining physical distance from others) and restrictive measures (such as we add. On the other hand, our decision to focus on behavioral interventions rather lockdown, curfews, and regional restrictions). In our study, we overall address non-than on restrictive measures was also largely based on the fact that an international compliance to basic behavioral recommendations, but not non-compliance to extension of the current study will probably be carried out. As epidemiological restrictive measures. Partially our decision is based on the fact that restrictive (restrictive) measures vary from country to country, a goal of the present study was measures are of limited use when individuals are non-compliant with the basic also to lay out the measurements for our later studies.

behavioral recommendations. A study [27] has, for instance, indicated that basic 46

COVID-19 preventive behaviors and cognitive biases Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



to participate in the study: they were not given a fee nor were

Belief Bias

their results classified or publicly disclosed in any way. We

To measure a participant’s proneness to belief bias and its

therefore believe that the current results are the best possible connection to compliance with behavioral recommendations, we

representation of the participants’ proneness to cognitive biases.

used adapted tasks of Markovits and Nantel [15]. Although the

original toolkit to measure this cognitive bias was comprised of 2.2 Tasks and measures

eight tasks, we used only seven of them as we believed that

Compliance with COVID-19 behavioral recommendations

participants would generally not be acquainted with the

individual mentioned in one task3, and hence unable to respond To measure reported compliance with the COVID-19 behavioral

to the question. All seven questions used were in fact syllogisms containment recommendations, we used an adapted form of the

– combinations of three statements. The participants were

Compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines scale [14].

instructed to assume that the first two statements (premises) are The adapted 4-point Likert scale includes 13 items, which

true; their task was to estimate whether or not the third statement predominantly focus on determining the extent of compliance

is the right conclusion derived from the first two statements.

with basic hygiene guidelines (such as mask wearing or hand

In four tasks, the conclusion that is correctly derived from the washing) rather than on compliance with more restrictive

two premises is contradictory to general knowledge. As such,

measures (for instance curfews or lockdown).

proneness to belief bias is in these tasks determined as the

Framing

willingness to estimate conclusions as inaccurate due to their

In the framing section of the questionnaire, participants were

dissimilarity to generalized facts. This can be illustrated by the randomly assigned into two groups. We measured the impact of

following task used in the study:

framing with two similar tasks. The first task was the original Premise 1: All things that are smoked are good for your

task used by Kahneman and Tversky [6]. In this paper, we often

health.

refer to this task of framing as framing in the neutral condition.

Premise 2: Cigarettes are smoked.

The instructions of the task were identical in both experimental Conclusion: Cigarettes are good for the health.

groups and are, as follows:

If we were to ignore the premises and read only the

Imagine that Slovenia 2 is preparing for the outbreak of an conclusion, we would correctly proclaim it to be false. However, unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two the conclusion is in accordance with the premises, hence it is

alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed.

correct in the context of the given task. A person, susceptible to Participants of both tasks were then asked to peruse scientific

belief bias will, consequently, likely struggle to reflect on the estimates of how many people would die / live if a certain

intuitively-suggested responses and in the particular case

program is accepted and make a decision on which program

incorrectly answer that the conclusion is false.

should be imposed. In both experimental groups, programs

On the other hand, the other three tasks we used had

actually predict the same number of lives lost / lives saved.

seemingly reasonable conclusions. However, these conclusions

However, as indicated below, gains (lives saved) were framed in

could not have been made on the basis of the given premises and

the 1st experimental group, whilst losses (lives lost) were framed were, as a result, incorrect. Here, proneness to belief bias is

in the 2nd experimental group. That is:

regarded as the decision that the conclusion is right. This can be Group 1: If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

exemplified by the following task:

If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that

Premise 1: All flowers have petals.

600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no

Premise 2: Roses have petals.

people will be saved.

Conclusion: Roses are flowers.

Group 2: If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.

Risk aversion

If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that

We used a truncated Holt-Laury Task [16] 4 to measure risk nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will aversion. The task is formulated as a set of paired lottery choices die.

and was initially designed to measure financial risk aversion.

In addition to the task in the neutral condition, another task

However, it is applicable to non-financial fields as well, and as was added to measure how specifying the disease impacts risk-such useful for the purpose of our study, as people are consistent seeking behavior. The text of the second task was slightly

in their preferences regarding risk-taking in all areas of life [17].

modified in comparison with the first task. Participants in the The original task contains ten rounds of paired choices, whilst

experimental group 1 (the group with framing of gains) were

ours included only nine due to the complexity and length of the

given the information that the disease of the outbreak is similar study. In every round, participants are required to opt for either to diseases, caused by the SARS virus. In contrast, participants option A or option B; both options are profitable. Nevertheless, in the group with framing of losses were provided with the

their profitability and risk level differ. The potential profits of comparison of the disease with the seasonal flu.

both options remain constant throughout all nine rounds (thus,



2 The original text of the task predicted that the U.S., and not Slovenia was 4 In comparison with the original task, the currency was also changed to familiarize preparing for an outbreak. For the purpose of this study, this detail was changed.

the participants with the task.

3 This individual was John D. Rockefel er.



47

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia Toporišič Gašperšič & Grof



option A can potentially bring either €2.00 or €1.60, whereas the If you choose option A, you will lose €1000 this year. If you

predicted payoff of option B is €3.85 or €0.10; [16]). Generally, choose option B, you will lose €2000 next year.

option A is regarded as the “safe” option, meanwhile option B is The 11th round was in fact not a lottery choice task – it was a

regarded as the “riskier” option as the potential profits in option question, also used in the original intertemporal choice

B vary more than potential profits in option A [8]. The course of measurement [18], which asked the participants to indicate

the task can be demonstrated by its first three rounds:

whether they would be prepared to pay more for overnight

shipping of a chosen product.

Table 1: First three rounds of Holt-Laury Task

Round

Option A

Option B

3 RESULTS

1

10%

90%

10%

90%

All acquired data were statistically analyzed in Microsoft Excel chance of chance of chance of chance of

2016.

receiving

receiving

receiving

receiving

€2.00

€1.60

€3.85

€0.10

3.1 Framing

2

20%

80%

20%

80%

chance of chance of chance of chance of

To measure the impact of framing gains/losses, we used a chi-

receiving

receiving

receiving

receiving

squared test. Our data indicate that there is no statistical

€2.00

€1.60

€3.85

€0.10

difference in risk taking behavior when losses are framed as

3

30%

70%

30%

70%

opposed to gains in the neutral condition, X2 (1, N = 80) = 0.03, chance of chance of chance of chance of

p = 0.87. Moreover, no significant difference in risk attitude has receiving

receiving

receiving

receiving

been found when comparing the framing of gains when SARS is

€2.00

€1.60

€3.85

€0.10

mentioned and the framing of losses when seasonal flu is

The average behavior of the majority of participants in initial

mentioned, X2 (1, N = 80) = 0.00, p = 0.99.

rounds is to opt for the safer option, option A. This trend is,

Nevertheless, the results demonstrate that participants who

however, expected to alter when the likelihood of receiving

were exposed to framing of gains in the neutral condition were

larger payments as a result of choosing option B substantially

more risk averse than participants who were exposed to framing

increases [16]. One’s willingness to engage in risk-taking

of gains when the SARS virus was mentioned, X2 (1, N = 80) =

behavior is measured by the number of “risky” decisions – the

26.53, p = 0.00. On the other hand, the difference in risk attitudes selections of option B.

is statistically significant when comparing framing of losses in Decision myopia

the neutral condition to framing of losses when the seasonal flu An adapted 5 measurement of intertemporal choice by was mentioned; when the flu is mentioned, participants tend to

Frederick [18] was used in this study in order to link decision acquire select the risk-taking option more commonly, X2 (1, N

myopia to non-compliance with behavioral recommendations to

=80) = 4.82, p = 0.03.

contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In total the measurement

included eleven items. As with the risk aversion task, the

3.2 Cognitive biases and compliance

intertemporal choice measurement was structured as a

Correlations between belief bias, loss aversion, decision myopia, combination of paired lottery choices.

and compliance with COVID-19 preventive recommendations

In the first eight rounds, participants had to choose between

are measured with the Pearson correlation coefficient. Data

two profitable options, option A and option B. Option B was

analysis showed that proneness to belief bias and compliance

always more lucrative than option A. However, the payoff of

with behavioral recommendations are positively correlated (r =

option A was always immediate or at least chronologically

0.35, p < 0,01). However, there is no statistically significant sooner in comparison with the payoff of option B. For instance:

correlation between proneness to risk aversion and compliance (r If you choose option A, you will receive €3000 this month. If

= 0.09, p = 0.42). Furthermore, a negative correlation has been

you choose option B, you will receive €3400 next month.

found between decision myopia and compliance to COVID-19

In such tasks, short-sighted individuals are therefore expected

preventive behavioral recommendations (r =-0.53, p < 0.01).

to select instant gratification by persistently choosing option A

[18]. In the 9th and 10th round, participants were asked to choose between the two given options once again. This time both options 4 DISCUSSION

were loss-making: option A predicted a more immediate, but

Our study has offered a more profound understanding of

financially lower loss, whilst option B involved a greater, but

behavior during the ongoing pandemic. To provide an accurate

deferred loss. Decision myopic individuals are believed to prefer insight, we exclusively focused on the correlation between

deferred losses even when it is not financially profitable for them proneness to certain cognitive factors and compliance with

[18], as indicated in the following example:

preventive measures. However, we acknowledge the fact that our



5 In addition to the fact that the task was shortened (original task to measure intertemporal choice included 17 items), we also changed the currency – as with the risk aversion task.





48

COVID-19 preventive behaviors and cognitive biases Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



results might have been affected by other equally important

remain unaccounted for: it is not clear whether they can be

factors correlated to compliance, such as demographic

directly linked to the use of heuristics, mental shortcuts, as

characteristics, socioeconomic status, personality, individual

simply complying rather than questioning the measures often

differences in the perception of and emotional responses to the

requires less cognitive effort, or there is an indirect correlation pandemic, resilience, political ideology, conspiracy mentality

between cognitive reflection and proneness to biases,

etc. Furthermore, our study has also shed light on some results

compliance, and other noteworthy psychological factors, such as

that differ from those in the current literature.

social norms [24].

Our results, for instance, did not confirm that in the neutral

Similarly unexpected was the finding that students prone to

condition, participants exposed to framing of losses were, in

risk aversion bias were not more inclined to comply with

consequence, more in favor of engaging in risk-taking behavior

behavioral recommendations. The current literature on

than their peers exposed to framing of gains. This is contrary to preventive behaviors suggests that the perceived threat that

the pre-existing theory [5, 6]. Similarly, no significant results COVID-19 presents to an individual is a significant factor of

were found when comparing framing of losses and framing of

compliance to preventive measures [25]. In other words, when

gains with regard to seasonal flu and the SARS virus. We were

feeling threatened, people typically engage in more risk-averse

thus not able to confirm our first two hypotheses. In our opinion, behavior than when they feel there is no danger. According to the there are several possible reasons for such results. Firstly,

national tracking data of the spread of coronavirus SARS-CoV-

participants in our study were high school students, who are not 2 in Slovenia, COVID-19 presents a relatively low threat to the

often represented in gain-loss framing research. It is therefore population of high school students [26]. This may, in turn, impact possible that the impact such framing has on high school students their risk attitudes and compliance with preventive measures. At is limited. At the same time, we must acknowledge that the

the same time, it is important to stress that the measuring tool students, representatives of the younger generation, were perhaps used to estimate the extent of participants’ risk aversion was

not so familiar with the SARS virus, which might impact their

designed to measure financial risk attitudes. Although inclination uptake of risky / safe options. Secondly, the experiment took

towards risk-taking behavior has been found to be consistent in

place during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It is possible that

every behavioral aspect [17], there is a possibility that we would participants were either very disturbed by reading the outbreak

have obtained significant results, if we had introduced a

scenario (which might have been, to a certain extent, reminiscent measuring tool for health-related risk attitudes. This is certainly of the current pandemic) or indifferent towards it, as people may an important fact we need to consider before planning our future become when unable to help others in need [19].

research in the field.

In contrast, it is very interesting that participants’ risk

Our finding that impulsive satisfaction of needs is linked to

attitudes noticeably change when a specific disease is mentioned.

non-compliance with COVID-19 preventive measures is in line

Analyzed data indicate that specifying the disease as very similar with the current literature. It has been suggested that the

to either the SARS virus or the seasonal flu contributes to

proneness to this cognitive bias should be used to promote stay-

subjects engaging in risk-taking decision making, no matter

at-home restrictions and recommendations by providing free

whether losses or gains are framed. Since our study included only internet access or benefit packages for vulnerable groups [13].

high school students, we cannot transpose these findings to the

Overall, our study offers an intriguing and thought-provoking

general population. However, it seems that in the risk-loss

insight into cognitive correlates of COVID-19 preventive

framework our subjects understood every specification of the

behaviors and is a valuable starting point for future research in disease as a loss, which caused them to engage in more risk-the field.

taking behavior.

Our results are unanticipated in terms of other hypotheses as

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50

The ecological rationality of probabilistic learning rules in unreliable circumstances

Borut Trpin†

Ana Marija Plementaš

Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy

MEi:CogSci

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich

University of Ljubljana

Munich Germany

Ljubljana Slovenia

borut.trpin@guest.arnes.si

ap0231@student.uni-lj.si



ABSTRACT

(represented by different learning rules as described above),

are some types of reasoning under uncertainty better than

In today’s �lood of information in many �ields we do not know

others and how may we even tell whether one type is better

which sources are reliable and which are not. On what basis

than another? That is, how can we compare the performance

can we draw conclusions? Whom to trust? We could say each

of various learning rules that guide our reasoning?

of us has a belief system that updates based on the arrival of

It is quite clear that in answering this question we need to

new relevant evidence. In our research we used a computer

consider what the goals of reasoning are. To name a few

model where we were investigating which learning rule is

possibilities: perhaps the goal of reasoning is to increase the

more reliable when we do not have a trustworthy source. The

understanding of the phenomenon that is the subject of

main goal is to discover the truth and to do so quickly. Our

reasoning, or the goal may be to uncover whether some

results show that different probabilistic learning rules may

statement holds. In fact, it seems that there are countless

be preferable in different situations and environments.

aspects that could be considered as valuable outcomes of

KEYWORDS

reasoning and that could as such be used in comparing which

rule that guides reasoning is better (or better in some

ecological rationality, belief updating, reasoning, learning

context).

rules, uncertainty

In our investigation we focused on two valuable

outcomes: (i) uncovering the truth, and (ii) the speed of

1

reasoning. The former, (i), considers how certain one is of

INTRODUCTION

true propositions due to reasoning according to a speci�ic We cannot fully rely on our senses nor on other external

(learning) rule. If (i) is our guide, then we take a rule to be

sources of information (e.g., testimony provided by others).

better if it makes one more certain of true propositions. The

In addition, it seems that there are multiple types of

latter, (ii), considers how quickly one can reach conclusions

reasoning under uncertainty in the sense that we use

while reasoning. Similarly, if a rule is quicker in making an

different learning (or reasoning) rules that guide the process

agent more certain (it quickly lessens uncertainty), then it

of reasoning. For instance, in trying to reach a conclusion

performs better on this count.

about some question (e.g., a doctor is trying to diagnose a

Ideally, both (i) and (ii) would go hand in hand: a reasoner

patient) on the basis of some evidence/information (e.g.,

would reach true conclusions and would also reach them

diagnostic tests) an agent might follow a principle of

quickly. However, it seems that they do not usually go hand

inferring to the best explanation (e.g., of the tests and their

in hand: rules that are especially conducive of (i) seem to

sensitivity and speci�icity). Another agent might consider

typically not be so conducive of (ii), and vice-versa (see, e.g., other aspects of the situation and hence follow different

[1], [2]): more conservative learning rules (i.e., not jumping learning rules like, e.g., how con�irmatory the evidence is of

to conclusions too quickly) are usually such that lead to more

some hypothesis that is being reasoned about (e.g., if a

accurate conclusions.

patient had a disease X, how likely it would be that the tests

For instance, one could excel on count (i) but fail on count

would be such and such given the objectively known

(ii): e.g., a learning rule could lead to mostly true conclusions information about the reliability of the test). A question that

but only after a vast amount of evidence is considered. An

may be raised could then be put as follows: Given that there

example of this would be a medical doctor that identi�ies the

are multiple ways of reasoning under uncertainty

correct disease in her patient but needs to conduct a large

number of diagnostic tests before she is able to do so.

Similarly, one could underperform on (i) but excel on (ii):

Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or such a case would be a doctor that makes a diagnosis on the

distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice basis of a single or few tests but her diagnosis is wrong. What

and the ful citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of we aimed to answer in our research project was which

this work must be honored. For al other uses, contact the owner/author(s).

learning (or reasoning) rules are the most conducive of (i)

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia and (ii), and how the two valuable goals (truth and speed)

© 2021 Copyright held by the owner/author(s).

could be balanced when we compare different learning rules.

51

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia B. Trpin and A. M. Plementaš



Additionally, we wanted to keep in mind that the sources of

As we can see from this brief explanation of the

information need not be fully reliable -- they could even be

background, they already considered both valuable

completely misleading.

outcomes of reasoning that we were also interested in: (i)

epistemic aspects: how close to truth we get due to

learning/reasoning under uncertainty, and (ii) pragmatic

2 BACKGROUND

aspects: how quickly we manage to form strong beliefs on the

Our research project actually starts from an investigation of

basis of learning. Moreover, they considered unreliable

learning on the basis of partial lying, i.e., learning in cases

sources similarly as we did.

where one asserts information that she believes to be likely

Another related research project was conducted by

but not necessarily false. Another agent then learns based on

Douven (see [4]). In that research, the focus was not so much both (a) such statements and (b) observations of whether the

on unreliable sources of information but rather on how

statements are true or false. This provides the basis for

different probabilistic learning rules compare. In the �irst

estimating the reliability of the source: if statements are

part of his research, which was based on computer

(mostly) true, the source is more reliable and vice versa, if

simulations of learning, he found that the rules diverged on

statements are mostly false, the source is taken to be more

both aspects. In the second part, he devised an interesting

unreliable. We were interested in reliability/trustworthiness

method for balancing the two aspects (accuracy and speed)

of the source under uncertainty more generally (e.g.,

and to estimate natural selection of the best rules for a given

diagnostic tests in a medical setting might be unreliable too,

environment (viz. ecological rationality of different

not just our interlocutors who may want to mislead us

probabilistic learning rules). Speci�ically, he considered that

intentionally), but a previous research project of partial lying we can simulate an intensive care unit (hereafter: ICU) in

(see [3]) turned out to be a good starting point because it which doctors are trying to help a patient. There are three

provided a useful formal description of the mechanisms on

options: the doctor either intervenes correctly, wrongly, or -

how to estimate reliability/trustworthiness of a source and

in case she remains uncertain - does not intervene at all. The

how to incorporate this estimate in a learning rule (there:

probability of the patient's survival changes through time

Bayesian learning, although our research project also

and depends on the decision: as time passes, the survival

includes other learning rules). Before we can explain why

becomes less likely. Similarly, at any point, the correct

partial lying is very similar to the topic we were

intervention increases the probability of survival, the wrong

investigating, let us brie�ly explain the issue of what partial

intervention decreases it and not intervening at all puts the

lying even is.

probability of survival in between the two other options.

Philosophers de�ine lying with four conditions: (1) a

Douven demonstrated that using a method of natural

statement, (2) the belief that the statement is false, (3) the

optimization can provide another argument in favor of

addressee, and (4) the purpose of misleading the addressee

probabilistic inference to the best explanation: although it is

(see [3] and the references therein).

a bolder learning rule -- it leads to quicker conclusions and

If someone is constantly lying to us, this individual can be

may therefore suffer from inaccuracy -- it is still quick and

simply deemed unreliable and ignored or even taken as if

reliable enough, so that it will typically provide the best

they are telling us the opposite of truth (saying "A" could be trade-off between the two valuable outcomes of reasoning:

taken as evidence for "not A"). If, however, truth and lies are speed and accuracy. Speci�ically, in this case he was

mingled in varying proportions, choosing whether to trust

simulating 200 doctors, 50 learning from diagnostic tests

this individual, and if so to what degree, becomes

according to each of the 4 learning rules. Then each of them

increasingly dif�icult. This fact has been emphasized by Trpin

would get 100 simulated patients and would be able to

and colleagues [1], which pointed out that the de�inition for conduct a number of tests on them (100 tests) to diagnose

lying misses out on many similar cases because the second

their disease. At the end of a run we can see what the

condition is too strict. They broadened the second condition

probability of survival was for each of the 200 simulated

– we usually also consider someone a liar when they believe

doctors and the top 100 doctors were duplicated and the

their statement to be more likely false than true. However, as

bottom 100 erased from the population. This then went on

they discovered through several computer simulations,

for 100 generations when mostly explanationist doctors

estimating the trustworthiness of the source then becomes

remained.

more dif�icult, hence such medium-strong lies (that is, those

Although his research project included reasoning under

where the liar is only somewhat certain that they are

uncertainty and an insightful way of balancing the valuable

asserting falsehoods) do us more epistemic harm. Following

speed and accuracy of reasoning, it did not consider the

Bayes’ learning rule to model lying, the research conducted

trustworthiness of information sources and it also did not

by Trpin and colleagues [1] sparked debates as to whether it

consider that information (here: diagnostic tests) might be

is sensible to consider partial lies at all, if one aims to reduce false. Hence, a combination of the research on partial lying

epistemic harm. What they found is that this approach is only

(as described above and in [3]) and that of natural useful when the goal is to quickly avoid believing false

optimization for comparing different probabilistic learning

propositions.





52

The ecological rationality of probabilistic learning rules in unreliable circumstances

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



rules (as just described, see also [4]) appeared to be an

The idea is that we can look at mean squared error of the

interesting topic that needed to be tackled.

probability distribution: effectively, if a forecast is perfect, the score is 0, and the more off it is, the higher the score,

which is also the reason why the score is sometimes called

3 METHOD: PART 1

Brier's penalty.

A computer model was created on the basis of other projects

In our simulations, we used it to compare the accuracy of

described in the previous section. The model included a trust

ascribed coin biases. If the simulated coin has a .7 bias to land system in which updating was simulated.

heads, then ideally our reasoner would assign probability 1

Speci�ically, in the �irst part we simulated a game of coin

to the hypothesis that the coin is .7 biased. As this is unlikely bias detection. Agent A is observing the coin and reasoning

to happen, we then measure mean squared error of the

about its bias, i.e., A is trying to learn how biased the coin is.

discrete probability distribution from this ideal outcome. In

The simulations consisted of 500 throws of 11 different coins

turn, we can use this to compare the performance of different

- hypotheses. Each of the 11 coins had its own bias, with

learning rules.

probability from 0 to 1 in .1 increments for it to land on heads.

Similarly, for measuring speed we can simply compare

The experiment was repeated a thousand times. In

how long it took each reasoner to assign a probability above

addition to coin throws we also simulated another Agent B,

some threshold value (e.g., above .9) to the true hypothesis

who may be taken as an information source. Agent B was

about the coin's bias. Note that both the speed of

there to provide unreliable and potentially misleading

convergence and the accuracy (Brier's score) also depend on

information to A, viz. B is telling A which side the coin is the coin that is used in simulations. This is because it is easier supposedly going to land on, although B does not necessarily

to determine the bias of a fully biased coin than of a fair coin: provide true information ("B lies to A"). There were also if it always lands on the same side, it is easier to conclude it three lists of lies according to the following principles: simple is fully biased than when it is landing on various sides (note

lying (the player states the least probable outcome of the coin, that a fair coin may also land on the same side many times in

i.e., if the coin is biased to land on heads, agent B will state a row, although such a pattern is more expected from a fully

that it will land on tails), gambler's lying (the player turns the biased coin).

coin secretly and states the opposite of the outcome) and

clairvoyant lying (the clairvoyant knows the exact outcome

and states the opposite). Bayes’s learning rule, Good’s

4 RESULTS: PART 1

learning rule, Popper’s learning rule and Explanatory

Results mainly show differences in probabilistic learning

learning rule were used to learn from these data

rules in simple lying when the probability of lying is 1.0 -

(observations of coins and statements + dynamic trust) to

constant lying, which is also the only part that we are

see which belief system update is causing the least epistemic

including in this extended abstract. It was found that the best

damage. Learning rules offer a way to update the beliefs in

probabilistic learning rule, in this case, is Explanatory

the light of the arrival of new relevant evidence. Speci�ically: learning rule with the lowest Brier penalties (i.e., the lowest

Bayes’ learning rule requires that the new probability

inaccuracy). This result has interesting implications: it shows

distribution (after learning) corresponds to the prior

that if the data is misleading, then it may make more sense to

conditional probability distribution (conditional on the

use non-Bayesian alternative probabilistic rules.

learned piece of evidence and the level of trust in the source).

Note, however, that the accuracy is even greater when we

The other three rules are all based on Bayes’ but deviate in

look at control runs, that is, the cases where the information

various ways: the explanatory learning rule adds extra

source was ignored, so that the learning agent was merely

weight to the hypothesis that provides the best explanation.

observing which side the coin landed on without considering

That is, if a coin lands heads 5 times in a row, the best

what the liar was asserting. This seems to suggest that when

explanation is that it is fully biased towards heads, so this

we are dealing with unreliable sources of information, it

hypothesis gets a probabilistic "push" compared to what might be best to immediately ignore such sources, e.g., a

Bayes’ rule would require. Good's and Popper's rule are

doctor who notices that her diagnostic tests are unreliable

similar, except that instead of looking at the best explanation, could stop conducting these tests. However, when we look at

they award those hypotheses that provide the most

the speed of convergence, we observe that it makes sense not

con�irmatory theories according to measures of con�irmation

to ignore such sources if we are also interested in quickly

developed by Good and Popper, respectively (see [4] for

recognizing true hypotheses: control runs were slower than

formal details about the updating rules).

others at least for some of the simulated coins.

After the simulations are conducted, we then look at the

Moreover, inference to the best explanation was, contrary

collected data. Speci�ically, we were interested in the

to previous research, the fastest but also the most accurate,

epistemic performance of the rules (how close to the truth

i.e., it was able to combine both accuracy and speed of

they bring an agent) and the speed of convergence towards

reasoning, the two values that previously appeared to be

true hypotheses. To measure how accurate the rules were,

mutually exclusive.

we used a measure called Brier's score (or Brier's penalty).



53

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia B. Trpin and A. M. Plementaš



5 METHOD: PART 2

The second part of our research followed the approach used

by Douven (see [4] and the section on background above).

Particularly, we were interested in simulating an ICU with

doctors trying to diagnose their patients when the tests are

potentially unreliable/misleading. The situation is very

similar to part 1: instead of coin biases we deal with diseases

that may show some symptom with 0, .1, .2, ..., 1 probability

and tests that correspond to partial lying in various lying

styles: they are not fully reliable and our doctors estimate the reliability of the tests. We can then look at what the survival

rates were for each of the doctor's patients and replicate the

top performing half doctors and repeat this for 100

generations. Hence, we combine the research from the �irst

part and the research described in the background section.



Figure 2: Average percentage of agents ("simple" lying) 6 RESULTS: PART 2

The results are interesting: if we look at tests that are

constantly misleading (i.e., all of them are unreliable to some

degree that needs to be estimated) and if they correspond to

what would be akin to simple lying (if it is more likely that a

patient has a symptom X than not at the time of the testing,

the test will not show the presence of X), then the doctors

that infer to the best explanation prevail through generations

(see Figure 1 for an example of a simulation and Figure 2 for

average percentage of different doctors in our simulations).

However, if the tests correspond to being unreliable in what

is akin to gambler's or clairvoyant lying we get different

results: tests that are unreliable in the gambler's lying style

favor both Good's and explanationist reasoning (Figure 3),

while those that are like clairvoyant's (always the wrong

result) favor Bayes's rule: see Figure 4.

Figure 3: Average percentage of agents ("gambler's"

lying)



Figure 1: Example of different agents in a single

simulation



Figure 4: Average percentage ("clairvoyant" lying)





54

The ecological rationality of probabilistic learning rules in unreliable circumstances

Information Society 2021, 4–8 October 2021, Ljubljana, Slovenia



7 CONCLUSIONS

The results, especially those of Part 2, are very interesting

because they suggest that different probabilistic learning

rules that have been addressed in literature may be

preferable in different situations and preferable in various

environments. Ecological rationality then suggests that if we

happen to be in an environment with speci�ic features, which

we plan to identify in our future research work, then Bayes'

rule might be the best way to proceed. Similarly,

explanationist learning or Good's or Popper's learning might

be preferable in other situations. It remains an open question

what features of the information environment determine the

choice of a learning rule, but our results suggest that a

pluralist approach to learning rules under uncertainty is

needed. Our results also provide one possible explanation

why we seem to have different reasoning patterns under

uncertainty in a descriptive sense, that is, because different

environments call for different reasoning strategies. Further

research could also provide some insights into pluralist

reasoning strategies, i.e., strategy-switching.

REFERENCES

[1] Igor Douven, 2013. Inference to the Best Explanation, Dutch Books, and Inaccuracy Minimisation. Philosophical Quarterly, 63. 428–444.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9213.12032

[2] Borut Trpin and Max Pellert. 2019. Inference to the Best Explanation in Uncertain Evidential Situations. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 70, 4. 977-1001. DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axy027

[3] Borut Trpin, Anna Dobrosovestnova, and Sebastian Jakob

Götzendorfer. 2020. Lying, more or less: a computer simulation study of graded lies and trust dynamics. Synthese, 1-28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-020-02746-5

[4] Igor Douven. 2020. The ecological rationality of explanatory reasoning. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 1-14.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-020-02



55





56





Indeks avtorjev / Author index



Amanda Saksida ........................................................................................................................................................................... 31

Ana Marija Plementaš .................................................................................................................................................................. 51

Anja Šerbec .................................................................................................................................................................................. 35

Anže Marinko ............................................................................................................................................................................... 22

Borut Trpin ................................................................................................................................................................................... 51

David Garcia ................................................................................................................................................................................ 26

David Susič .................................................................................................................................................................................. 22

Hannah Metzler ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26

Janez Bregant ............................................................................................................................................................................... 41

Jaša Černe....................................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Jaya Caporusso ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10

Lenart Motnikar............................................................................................................................................................................ 26

Lucija Mihić Zidar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Manca Toporišič Gašperšič .......................................................................................................................................................... 45

Maša Žaucer ................................................................................................................................................................................. 22

Mateja Kalan .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5

Matjaž Gams ................................................................................................................................................................................ 22

Nataša Grof .................................................................................................................................................................................. 45

Selma Berbić .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5

Tadej Todorović ........................................................................................................................................................................... 41

Tine Kolenik ................................................................................................................................................................................. 10

Urban Kordeš ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5

Uršek Slivšek ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5





57





58



Kognitivna znanost

Cognitive Science

Toma Strle, Borut Trpin, Maša Rebernik, Olga Markič





Document Outline


02 - Naslovnica - notranja - B - TEMP

03 - Kolofon - B - TEMP

04 - IS2021 - Predgovor - TEMP

05 - IS2021 - Konferencni odbori

07 - Kazalo - B

08 - Naslovnica - notranja - B - TEMP

09 - Predgovor podkonference - B

10 - Programski odbor podkonference - B

01 - Černeetal

02 - Koleniketal

03 - Marinko et al._COGSCI21_paper_6 Abstract

1 INTRODUCTION

2 RELATED WORK

3 ESTIMATING THE LONGEVITY OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION WITH SANDBERG AND RARE EARTH MODEL 3.1 SANDBERG MODEL

3.2 RARE EARTH MODEL





4 EXPERIMENTS 4.1 Issues with log-uniform distribution

4.2 Parameter importance





5 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Acknowledgments





04 - Motnikaretal

05 - Saksida

06 - Šerbec_COGSCI21_paper_3

07 - Todorovicetal

08 - Toporisicetal

09 - Trpinetal

12 - Index - B

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