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Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826
No. 7-8 / Vol. XVII / 2011
Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27
Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA
Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Janez Kušar, Ivo lavrač, PhD, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Arjana Brezigar Masten, PhD, Urška Lušina, MSc (Indebtedness of Slovenian enterprises).
Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc
Translator: Marija Kavčič
Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič
Print: Tiskarna????????????????? Circulation: 90 copies
© The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged.
Contents
In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3
Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5
International environment...............................................................................................................................................7
Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9
Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14
Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17
Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19
Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................21
Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................24
Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................27
Indebtedness of Slovenian enterprises.......................................................................................................................29
Boxes
Box 1: The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area.........................................................................................................8
Box 2: GDP in the second quarter of 2011...................................................................................................................10
Box 3: Real estate market in Q2 2011...........................................................................................................................12
Box 4: Labour force survey - the second quarter of 2011........................................................................................16
Box 5: 2011 EU-wide bank stress tests.........................................................................................................................23
Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33
On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp.
All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD.
In the spotlight
Despite the expected slowdown in the second half of the year, the most recent forecasts by international institutions for this year's economic growth in the euro area are higher than in the spring, which is a consequence of a better realisation in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, economic growth slowed in almost all Slovenia's main trading partners, but owing to strong first-quarter growth, the realisation in the first half of the year was nevertheless higher than expected by international institutions in the spring. Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators suggest that growth will continue to slow in the second half of the year. The main risk to the further recovery of the European economy is the sovereign debt crisis, which has made it difficult for more and more countries to obtain finance in recent months.
Economic activity in Slovenia increased only modestly in the first two quarters of this year; it is still driven by exports and held back by construction. In both quarters of 2011, GDP increased by a mere 0.1% (seasonally adjusted), which is a significant deceleration relative to last year. Y-o-y growth slowed as well, from 2.3% in the first quarter to 0.9% in the second. Economic activity is still driven by foreign demand. With y-o-y growth in exports declining less than y-o-y growth in imports, net exports made an even larger contribution to GDP growth than in the first quarter of the year. On the other hand, the volume of domestic consumption in the second quarter was even smaller y-o-y (-2.1%) against the background of tightening labour market conditions, difficulties in gaining access to finance and a deepening crisis in the construction sector. This was mainly due to a further deepening of the y-o-y decline in the gross fixed capital formation as a result of a continuing drop in construction investments. Investments in machinery and equipment were also smaller y-o-y after four quarters of growth. Household and government consumption remained unchanged y-o-y in the second quarter. Changes in inventories and valuables continued to make a relatively large contribution to GDP growth (1.6 p.p.). Broken down by activities, y-o-y growth in value added was once again highest in manufacturing, with the worst results still recorded in the construction sector, where the decline deepened further y-o-y.
Labour market conditions stabilised in the first half of the year, but remain worse than a year before. The
seasonally adjusted number of persons in employment according to the statistical register did not change much in the first half of the year, being 2.3% lower than in the same period last year. The number of registered unemployed persons declined slightly in the first half of the year as a whole, but was 13.1% higher y-o-y. At the end of July, the number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) increased again after several months of decline, to 107,562.
The growth of the average gross wage slowed on average in the second quarter and was, amid the stagnation of the average wage in the public sector solely a result of wage growth in the private sector. In the second quarter, the average gross wage recorded 0.2% slower growth relative to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted); its y-o-y growth slowed as well (2.0%). The average gross wage in the public sector has practically stagnated for a year and a half. Wage growth in the private sector has been slowing since the first quarter of last year when the minimum wage was raised. The effect of changes in employment structure is decreasing as well.
After deflation in June and July, consumer prices rose by 0.3% in August. In the first eight months of this year, prices increased by 1.0%. In August, they were 0.9% higher y-o-y. Rising energy and food prices continue to be the key factors of the otherwise low y-o-y inflation. According to the preliminary Eurostat figures, prices in the euro area were 2.5% higher y-o-y in August.
The lending activity of Slovenian banks continued to be modest in July; foreign sources of finance remain limited; the quality of banks' assets deteriorates further and banks create additional impairments and provisions. Corporate and NFI deleveraging strengthened in July; in addition to further net repayments of domestic bank loans, the highest this year, enterprises and NFIs also made net repayments of foreign loans in May and June. In the first half of the year, enterprises recorded a net borrowing of EUR 25.3 m in total at home and abroad, which is only one third of the value in the first half of last year and solely a result of net borrowing abroad. Household borrowing strengthened in July, reaching the highest value this year. In the first seven months as a whole, households took out more than half less loans than in the same period of last year. Banks recorded net borrowing abroad in June, but access to foreign sources of finance nevertheless remains limited, according to our estimate, as the total net inflows came from short-term loan. Banks net repaid EUR 1.1 bn in foreign deposits and loans in the first half of the year, which is one third more than in the same period of last year. The quality of banks' assets continues to deteriorate; the volume of non-performing claims climbed to as much as 4.3% of total claims by the end of June and banks increased impairments and provisions by EUR 357.1 m in the first seven months, which is by 7.4% more than in the same period last year.
According to the consolidated balance of the MF, the general government deficit amounted to EUR 901 m in the first five months of 2011. Revenue was 10.6% and expenditure 3.0% highery-o-y in the first five months. All categories of expenditure were up y-o-y, except expenditure on capital and capital transfers (-8.7%), where the decline was mainly a result of the high level at the beginning of last year and this year's considerably lower investment activity of the government. Expenditure on interest payments recorded the highest y-o-y growth (9.5%).
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International environment
In the second quarter, GDP growth in Slovenia's main trading partners slowed. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, the quarterly GDP growth in the euro area declined from 0.8% to 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. In the second quarter, GDP growth was lower than the spring forecasts by the EC, but in the first half of the year as a whole, it did not differ much from the forecasted growth. GDP was 1.7% higher year-on-year (in the first quarter, 2.5% higher). The quarterly growth was below expectations in most Slovenia's main trading partners, except in Austria, where growth remained high. The slowdown of GDP growth in Germany, Slovenia's most important trading partner, in the second quarter of 2011 was in line with expectations, based on the movements of the available short-term indicators of economic activity and the spring forecasts by international institutions. Despite the expected slowdown in the second half of the year, the current forecasts by international institutions for this year's economic growth in the euro area are higher than the spring forecasts, mainly due to the realisation in the first half of the year.
Figure 1: Economic growth in selected main trading partners
Q3 10 «04 10 Q1 11 «02 11 -Q2 11 forecast
1.6
EMU Germany France Italy Austria Source: Eurostat, EC Forecasts (May 2011).
The movements of short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators also show a continuation of low economic growth in the euro area in the second half of the year. Key indicators of economic activity in the euro area slowed or declined in the second quarter as a whole, especially in June. The CPB world trade index also declined in the second quarter, for the first time in two years. The movements of confidence indicators (Ifo, ZEW, PMI) show a slowdown of economic activity and deteriorated expectations regarding new orders and exports in manufacturing also in the months to come. Consumer and business confidence was particularly affected by the risk of the sovereign debt crisis spreading to larger euro area countries, which increased uncertainty in financial
markets. As for the euro area, the PMI manufacturing index for China also indicates slower growth in the second half of the year, while in the US the conditions are expected to improve slowly.
Figure 2: Industrial production in manufacturing, new orders and export expectations according to data on business trends (in the euro area)
-Industrial production In manufacturing (left axis)
-New orders right axis)
----Expected export order books (right axis)
a	a
Source: Eurostat.
The lending conditions for enterprises and households tightened further in the second quarter. According to the ECB survey, the lending conditions for enterprises in the euro area deteriorated further in the second quarter of this year and the number of banks that reported a tightening of credit standards was 2% higher than the number of those that reported an easing. The main factors of the tightening were banks' negative expectations regarding the economic recovery and their own liquidity position, and limited access to market financing. Banks
Figure 3: ECB bank lending survey on lending conditions in the euro area
Lend. conditions for enterprises In the past 3 months (left axis)
-Lend. conditions for enterprises in the next 3 months (left axis)
-Corporate loan demand in the past 3 months (right axis)
-----Corporate loan demand in the next 3 months (right axis)
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Box 1: The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area remained tight in the summer months and new austerity measures have been announced in countries facing the greatest difficulties in public finances. To stabilise the situation in financial markets, at July's summit the euro area countries agreed on a new debt bailout package for Greece. In addition, measures were agreed to improve the efficiency of the EFSF by increasing authorisations and expanding the lending capacity, as well as measures on fiscal consolidation, by which the countries committed themselves to bringing fiscal deficits below 3% of GDP not later than by the end of 2012. The conditions in government bond markets nevertheless remained tight and several countries faced credit rating downgrades. Under particular pressure were Italy and Spain, as their 10-year government bond yields rose above 6% at the beginning of August. To stabilise the financial markets, the ECB carried out an additional long-term refinancing operation to increase liquidity and restarted the securities markets programme in August. It bought EUR 41.5 bn in government bonds in August alone, and as much as EUR 115.5 bn in total since the beginning of the programme. To ease financial market pressures, a number of Member States announced additional measures to consolidate public finances. Italy announced austerity measures1 in the total amount of EUR 45 bn (approximately 3% of GDP) for 2012 and 2013 to reach a balanced budget by the end of 2013, which was the ECB's condition for buying Italy's government bonds. Spain announced additional austerity measures2 in the amount of EUR 5 bn (around 0.5% of GDP) for this year and the next. It has not specified them yet, but it did adopt a constitutional amendment limiting the public debt to 60% of GDP from 2020 and the public deficit to 3% of GDP. Additional measures have also been announced in France, where special emphasis is placed on increasing revenue by raising certain existing and introducing new taxes, particularly for the rich. The French government is planning to raise roughly EUR 12 bn in additional revenue this year and in 2012, which accounts for about 0.6% of GDP. To meet the set goals, additional savings measures have also been announced or adopted by Portugal, Ireland and Greece, among which the latter, in particular, has trouble implementing the measures that have already been agreed. The main risk to the further recovery of the European economy is the gap between the announced and the actually implemented austerity measures, and the consequent lack of trust in euro area countries reflected in the sharp increase in government bonds yields, as well as a sizeable exposure of several European national banking systems to these countries.
Figure 4: Government bond yields
16
Figure 5: Geographical distribution of Italy's and Spain's financial obligations at the end of 1Q 20111
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400
100
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in	a	^
Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD.
FR DE GB NL US BE CH Other Source: BIS.
1	Additional measures to the budget for the period until 2013, which foresaw austerity measures in the amount of EUR 47.8 bn in July.
2	Additional measures to the bailout package of EUR 15 bn for the next two years, which was confirmed last year. Despite being urged by the ECB, Spain has not announced any accelerated deficit reduction so far.
also widened margins on riskier loans. They estimate that growth in demand for corporate loans decreased significantly relative to the first quarter, but is still rising, particularly due to the financing needs for working capital and inventories and debt restructuring. Banks also reported a further tightening of credit standards for
households, again particularly for housing loans. Looking ahead to the third quarter, banks expect the tightening of credit standards to continue, but nevertheless anticipate a further increase in demand for corporate loans, while households' demand is expected to decline.
1 Financial liabilities to the 24 national banking systems, for which the BIS collects statistical data. The BIS statistics also include other potential exposures (derivatives, guarantees extended, credit commitments) in the amount of USD 753 bn.
0
In July, the ECB raised the interest rate on the main refinancing operations for the second time this year. The value of EURIBOR stopped growing in August, for the first time in several months. To ensure price stability in the euro area, the ECB raised the key interest rate by 25 b.p. to 1.5%. Other main central banks (Fed, Boe) left their key interest rates unchanged. The value of the 3-month EURIBOR dropped by 5 b.p. to 1.55% in August, after six months of growth. The value of the 3-month CHF LIBOR, having totalled 0.07% in August, keeps declining, while the value of the 3-month USD LIBOR rose somewhat, to 0.29%.
The euro lost value against the main global currencies in August, except against the US dollar. The average exchange rate of the US dollar gained 0.6% against the euro in August (to USD 1.43 to EUR 1) and was 11.2% higher y-o-y. The Swiss franc gained value against the euro (by 4.8%, to CHF 1.11 to EUR 1), as did the Japanese yen (by 2.5%, to JPY 110.40 to EUR 1) and the British pound sterling (by 0.9%, to GBP 0.88 to EUR 1). The value of the Swiss franc climbed as much as 13.7% in the last four months.
Oil and other commodity prices declined in August, after increasing in July. The average price of Brent crude oil fell by 6.0% to USD 109.92 a barrel (in EUR, by 6.3%, to EUR 76.58 a barrel). Oil prices in USD were up 42.7% y-o-y, oil prices in EUR 27.8%. The decline of oil prices was impacted by great uncertainty regarding the recovery of the global economy, while the political turmoil in certain major oil-producing countries still influences the high level of prices of oil. Non-energy commodity prices rose by 1.6% in July, according to the most recent data by the IMF, and were 29.5% higher y-o-y. In August they dropped slightly, according to preliminary data.
Figure 6: Oil prices and the USD/EUR exchange rate
-Pricein EUR (left axis)
-----Pricein USD (left axis)
— Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis)
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Economic activity in Slovenia
The growth of external trade2 slowed in the second quarter this year. In the second quarter, nominal growth in merchandise exports slowed compared with the first, as expected (from 4.4% to 2.4%, seasonally adjusted). Exports were 13.0% higher y-o-y. In the first five months of this year, growth in Slovenia's exports to our main trading partner, Germany, was still high y-o-y (29.7%), partly as a result of the low base in the same period last year.3 Growth in merchandise imports slowed much more than growth in exports (from 3.3% to 0.8%, seasonally adjusted). In the second quarter, imports were 9.7% higher y-o-y in nominal terms. According to our estimates, y-o-y growth
Figure 7: Merchandise trade
6,500
6,000
Merchandise exports Merchandise imports
3,500
O	O
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia
in %	2010	VI 11/ V 11	VI 11/ VI 10	I-VI 11/ I-VI 10
Exports1	12.2	-1.0	7.5	14.8
-goods	13.7	-2.1	8.2	16.3
-services	6.6	4.3	4.8	8.5
Imports1	14.3	-8.5	3.7	14.1
-goods	16.1	-10.6	3.9	15.6
-services	4.5	7.5	2.2	4.4
Industrial production	6.7	-0.52	2.03	6.83
-manufacturing	7.0	-0.32	2.23	7.23
Construction -value of construction put in place	-16.9	-11.92	-35.93	-28.63
Real turnover in retail trade	-0.2	0.52	-2.03	1.63
Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants	3.0	2.82	4.93	3.03
Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD.
Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data.
Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD.
2	According to the external trade statistics.
3	Quarterly comparisons for the whole second quarter are not possible yet, as data on merchandise trade by countries are not yet available for June.
Box2: GDP in the second quarter of 2011
Economic activity in Slovenia increased only modestly in the first two quarters of this year; it is still driven by exports and held back by construction. According to SORS data, GDP increased by a mere 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in both quarters of 2011, which is a significant deceleration relative to last year. Y-o-y growth also slowed, from 2.3% in the first quarter to 0.9% in the second. Compared with other EU countries, Slovenia was in the bottom third both in terms of its quarterly and y-o-y GDP growth in the first half of this year. Despite the slowdown, economic activity is still driven by foreign demand. With y-o-y growth in exports declining less than in imports, net exports made an even larger contribution to GDP growth than in the first quarter of the year (an increase from 1.0 p.p. to 2.9 p.p.). On the other hand, with labour market conditions tightening further and amid difficulties in gaining access to finance and a deepening of the crisis in construction, domestic consumption showed no signs of recovery yet and was even smaller in the second quarter than in the same period of 2010 (-2.1%). This was mainly attributable to an even larger decline in gross fixed capital formation than in the previous quarters as a result of a continuing shrinkage in construction investments. Investments in machinery and equipment also declined y-o-y after four quarters of growth. Household consumption remained practically unchanged y-o-y, as in the first quarter. The same goes for government consumption, which stagnated y-o-y in the second quarter, after 1.9% y-o-y growth in the first. A relatively large contribution to GDP growth still comes from changes in inventories and valuables (1.6 p.p.).
Among activities, y-o-y growth in value added was once again highest in manufacturing. The worst results were still recorded in construction, where the decline deepened further y-o-y.1 Value added by activities continues to reflect the gap between foreign and domestic demand. The greatest contribution to value added growth again came from more export-oriented manufacturing activities. Construction activity continued to decline (both relative to the previous quarter and y-o-y). Growth in services was also weak amid modest domestic demand, after strengthening slightly in 2010.
Figure 8: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners
* Slovenia -Germany ---------France
----Italy	-Austria ---------Croatia
Figure 9: Structure of Slovenia's GDP growth
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95
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■	Private consumption
■	Gross fixed capital formation
■	Exports of goods and services -GDP real growth (right axis)
Government consumption WW Chang. in invent. and valuables ^■Imports of goods and services
a a a a a Source: Eurostat.
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Source: SORS.
1 This time, SORS released data on GDP production structure according to the Standard Classification of Activities - SKD 2008 for the first time.
in imports of goods for intermediate consumption slowed. Imports of investment goods were down y-o-y, consistent with the decline of domestic investment activity. In the first half of 2011, total merchandise exports increased by 16.1% y-o-y and imports by 14.8%.
In the second quarter, trade in services remained approximately at the same level as in the first, as exports declined and imports stagnated. According to seasonally adjusted data, exports of services fell by 0.7% in the second quarter after increasing by 2.1% in the first. They were 6.6% higher y-o-y, mainly due to exports of travel and
communication services, while exports of construction services declined. Imports of services stagnated in the second quarter of the year, according to seasonally adjusted data. They were 3.0% higher y-o-y, once again mainly due to imports of various miscellaneous, professional and technical services, while the value of domestic households' holiday trips abroad was again lower y-o-y. A y-o-y decline was also recorded for imports of construction services, such as construction, assembly and investment works carried out by foreign workers in Slovenia. In the first half of 2010, exports of services were up 8.5% and imports 4.4% y-o-y in nominal terms.
Figure 10: Trade in services
1,300
1,200
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1; 1,000
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■Exports of services = ....i... •Imports of services
o	o	o	o
Source: BS; calculations by I MAD.
Production volume in manufacturing increased by 1.3% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted) and was 5.2% highery-o-y. It grew in all three industry groups according to technology intensity, the least in medium-low-technology industries, where this year activity slowed the most in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products.4 Production continued to grow in medium-high and high-technology industries, but also in industries with the lowest degree of technology intensity, which started to recover last and therefore lag the most behind the production levels recorded before the beginning of the crisis.
Figure 11: Production in manufacturing according to technology intensity
-	Total
■	High-and medium-high-technology-intensive industries
-	Medium-low-technology-intensive industries
■	Low-technology-intensive industries
a	a
Source: SORS; calculations by I MAD.
In the second quarter, industrial production in manufacturing was on average almost one tenth (-9.2%) below the pre-crisis levels in 2008, seasonally adjusted; in the EU-27 (where production did not increase in the second quarter), this lag was, on average, half smaller (-4.1%). This greater lag behind the 2008 production levels in Slovenia than in the EU-27 is mainly attributable to certain less technology-intensive industries. The lag remains greatest in the least technology-intensive textile and furniture industries. It is also significant in the medium-low-technology manufacture of non-metal mineral products (reflecting modest domestic construction activity), repair and installation of machinery and equipment and manufacture of rubber and plastic products; the latter already surpassed the pre-crisis levels at the end of last year. The difference between production levels in Slovenia and the EU-27 in high-technology industries, which recovered faster both in Slovenia (also due to a higher level of export orientation) and the EU-27, is smaller.
Figure 12: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU-27 in the second quarter of 2011
90
-S 80
70
60
50
4 This industry made a sizeable contribution to the contraction of this industry group's production in the first quarter.
Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: Data for the EU-27 are working -day adjusted. Data for Slovenia are original.
According to data on business trends, business expectations for autumn months remained more or less unchanged in July and August. The values of indicators measuring the current situation deteriorated relative to those in the spring; among expectation indicators, the indicator of expected total demand declined somewhat, largely as a consequence of expectations regarding domestic demand. Turnover on the domestic market dropped by 1.8% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), while turnover on the foreign market remained at the same level as in the first (0.6%, seasonally adjusted). At the beginning of the third quarter, insufficient domestic demand was still the main limiting factor to production (42% of enterprises participating in the survey); another limiting factor was insufficient foreign demand, reported
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
Figure 13: Main limiting factors in the manufacturing sector according to the quarterly data on business trends
-insufficient domestic demand
-insufficient foreign demand
---Uncertain economic conditions
-----Problems with unpaid bills
---------Financial problems
30 20 10

—i-:-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i—
a	a
Source: SORS.
by around one third of enterprises for the second quarter in a row (in the first quarter, 42%). The share of enterprises reporting uncertain economic conditions, financial problems and outstanding liabilities as the limiting factors to production increased as well. The capacity utilisation planned for the third quarter declined slightly (to 79.5%), but remained above the levels at the beginning of the year (78.9%).
Construction activity dropped again significantly in the second quarter. The value of construction put in place slumped, particularly in May and June. In the second quarter as a whole, it was therefore down 19.4% relative to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted) and 31.0% lower than in the same period last year. The decline in activity in the last few months has also been related to difficulties on the supply side, as a number of businesses have gone bankrupt5 or are in compulsory settlement proceedings and some of the already started projects may be temporarily suspended, especially those by public investors. Activity has declined in all construction sectors, the least in civil engineering. Non-residential construction activity has dropped notably this year. We
Box 3: Real estate market in Q2 2011
The number of transactions in second-hand and new flats declined again in the second quarter. The number of reported market transactions in flats according to data by SMARS, which mainly pertain to second-hand flats, dropped by nearly one fifth in the second quarter of the year. The y-o-y decline was even more pronounced (-27.5%). SMARS otherwise notes that the figures for the current year are provisional. They should be treated with caution, as data for the first quarter became available with a significant delay and the actual number of transactions therefore turned out to be one quarter higher than according to the first estimates, which can happen again in the second quarter. But the number of transactions did drop again, which is confirmed by data for all regions, as well as for other real estate categories. SORS data also show a decline in transactions in new flats (-5.6%). Their number also declined y-o-y. In the second quarter of this year, the total number of transactions in second-hand and new flats thus dropped by half relative to the peak in the second quarter of 2007, but is nevertheless higher than at the beginning of the crisis at the end of 2008 and in the first half of 2009.
Prices of second-hand and new flats increased further in the second quarter. Prices move in the opposite direction to transactions, which indicates a further deepening of imbalances on the market. Prices of second-hand flats according to SMARS rose by 4.2% compared with the first quarter; SORS data show slightly lower growth. SMARS data are affected by changes in the structure of transactions as a result of a higher share of transactions in Ljubljana, where real estate prices are higher, while SORS tries to eliminate the impact of structural changes using a different methodology. Prices of new flats increased more (2.8%) than prices of second-hand flats and were up 9.9% y-o-y. They are now almost 14% higher than at the bottom of the crisis in the third quarter of 2009, and only 6% lower than before the crisis. Similar movements were recorded three years ago, when a gap between growing prices and declining transactions deepened the crisis on the real estate market, which in turn eased the prices. On the other hand, prices of new houses declined, but they fluctuate a lot, as these transactions are few.
Figure 14: Movements of prices of second-hand and new flats and transactions in flats
-Prices-SORS, second-hand dwellings
---------Prices-SORS, new dwellings
-Prices-SMARS
---Registered transactions-SMARS
Transactions-SORS, new dwellings
a	a	a
Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD.
5 Altogether 988 enterprises which were still listed in the construction sector as recently as in 2009 have not submitted the final financial statements for 2010 or have changed their main activity. This number is otherwise comparable to that in 2009 (943), but these enterprises were, on average, much larger, as their net revenues from sales accounted for 6.3% of all revenues of enterprises in construction at the end of the preceding year (a year before only 1.9%). We estimate that the winding up of large enterprises may also have a significant impact on current data on construction activity, given that these enterprises account
70
60
50
40
0
estimate that as last year, this is mainly due to lower activity in the construction of buildings for other service activities (non-tradable sector). The value of works in residential construction has fallen notably as well,6 which has to do with the stock of unsold flats and the tightened financial situation of households.
Figure 15: Value of construction put in place
-	Construction - total
-	Non-residential buildings
----Residential buildings
--------Civil engineering works
a	a
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
Data on new contracts in construction and business trends in orders indicate an increase. In the second quarter, the value of new contracts rose by 9.3%, but was still 18.6% lower than in the same period last year. The strongest growth was recorded by new contracts for civil-engineering works, the value of which was even higher than a year before. The indicator of total orders in construction shows similar signs of recovery. Even though in August its value was lower (-57) than in May (-53), when it was the highest since the beginning of the crisis, it was still much higher than in any month in 2010 (-69 on average).
The volume of road freight transport increased significantly in the first quarter of 2011, but y-o-y it remained smaller. According to seasonally adjusted data, the volume of transport services grew by 8.2% in the first quarter of this year. Three quarters of growth came from a larger volume of transport carried out by legal persons (companies) and one quarter from transport by natural persons (sole proprietors).7 The y-o-y decline in the first quarter of 2011 (-3.2%) was thus smaller than in the last quarter of 2010. Rail freight transport continued to grow strongly y-o-y. In the first quarter of 2011, it was 23.3% higher than in the same period of 2010. The volume of rail freight
for an over-proportional share in the survey (the survey on completed construction works only includes major enterprises).
6	In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, according to our estimates.
7	Until 2005, the volume of transport by legal persons was nearly equal to that by natural persons, unlike today when nearly two thirds of transport
services are carried out by legal and only one third by natural persons.
transport has already exceeded the highest quarterly levels recorded before the crisis, while the volume of road freight transport came very close to the pre-crisis levels again, after increasing relatively strongly in the first quarter compared with the last quarter in 2010.
Figure 16: Volume of road freight transport
1000
800
600
400
200
-200
-400
-600
I Natural persons ■ Legal entities ........•....................... ■■■+■	"f..........r
a	a	a	a
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
In the second quarter, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles remained roughly at the same level as in the first, while turnover in retail and wholesale trade declined. After growing in the last year and a half, real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles in the second quarter remained approximately at the same level as in the first (seasonally adjusted), mainly due to a 4% decline in June. It was more than one tenth higher than in the same period of last year.8 The lag behind the average 2008 level thus increased to almost 8 p.p. again in June, but was still the smallest of all three sectors. Real turnover in retail trade declined in the second quarter after a year of modest growth and was slightly more than one tenth below the level in 2008. The movement of turnover in this activity in recent months has mainly reflected the movement of the sale of automotive fuels, which continues to grow. On the other hand, turnover in the sale of food and in the sale of non-food products, having maintained roughly the same level since the end of 2009, dropped considerably in the second quarter. Turnover in these two sectors also declined relative to the second quarter last year. The largest decline relative to 2010 was otherwise recorded for turnover in the sale of furniture, household appliances and construction material (-15.1%), which is attributable to declining construction activity and reduced purchases of durable goods. Turnover in the sale of furniture and construction material has otherwise been falling since the second half of 2008 and is more than one third below
8 In the second quarter, the total number of new passenger car registrations was 2.6% lower than in the second quarter of 2010 (registrations by natural persons dropped by 10.6, while the number of registrations by legal persons was 3.5% higher than a year before).
0
its value in 2008. After contracting in the second half of 2010, nominal turnover in wholesale trade had increased substantially in the first quarter of this year, than dropped again in the second. It is still roughly 17% below what was recorded in 2008, which is the most among the three main trade sectors.
Figure 17: Turnover in trade sectors
-Retail trade, real
-----Automotive fuel, real
-----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real
-Wholesale, nominal
105
5? 100 SS 95
90
80 I 75 70
a	a	a
Source: SORS; calculations by IM AD.
Turnover in accommodation and food service activities
has remained practically unchanged since the end of 2010. After dropping in 2009 and increasing in 2010, turnover in accommodation and food service activities remains at a similar level as at the end of 2010. In the second quarter of this year, it was thus 3% below the 2008 average. In the first half of the year, turnover was 3.0% higher y-o-y in nominal terms, which is attributable to a higher number of foreign tourists in Slovenia, as the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists increased by 9.4% in that period,
Figure 18: Overnight stays by foreign tourists
■ Overnight stays in the first half of 2011 ♦ Growth H1 11/H1 10 (right axis)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

I
♦ ; >
.....'
60 50 40 30
J
20 10 0 -10 -20
while the number of domestic tourists' overnight stays remained at the same level as a year before. Looking at the six most important countries for Slovenia's tourism, the highest growth was recorded for overnight stays of tourists from Russia, Germany and Serbia. The overnight stays of the latter increased by nearly one tenth following the abolition of visas, after they had already risen by more than half last year.
After improving in the first half of the year, the seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator deteriorated from June to August. In August, it was at the same level as a year before. The largest decline was recorded for the confidence indicator in retail trade. The confidence indicator in manufacturing and the consumer confidence indicator also dropped. The values of confidence indicators in services and construction improved slightly, but the value of the latter remains very low.
Figure 19: Business trends
-	Economic sentiment Retail trade
-	Service act.
Manufacturing
Consumers
Construction
Source: SORS.
Labour market
The number of persons in employment according to the statistical register9 did not change much in the first six months of this year, seasonally adjusted. It declined by 2.0% relative to the second quarter last year; the number of persons employed in enterprises and organisations and with sole proprietors dropped in particular. In the second quarter, employment according to the statistical register grew relative to the previous quarter in most activities, most notably in professional, scientific and technical activities, and public services (particularly in health and social work). It also increased in manufacturing, following a steep decline in the first quarter. On the other hand, the number of persons in employment continued to decline in construction and information and communication
I— I— ujcC3on^3oncC_irvJ<_iLiJx<Q-Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
9 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers.
Figure 20: Change in employment according to the statistical register by activities
3,000 2,000 1,000 J5 0
!E
Sir -1,000 !=
15 -2,000
;5 -3,000 a
-4,000 -5,000
of decline. Altogether 107,562 persons were unemployed in July, 481 more (0.4%, seasonally adjusted) than in the previous month, and 9,156 (9.3%) more than in the same period last year. In July, 7,371 persons registered anew (917 more than in June), while 6,890 persons were deleted from the unemployment register (1,117 fewer than in June). Especially the number of those who were deleted from the register because they had found work was lower than in June. Among the new-job seekers, the number of those increased, in particular, that were looking for a new
Figure 21: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements
-	Employed persons according to SRE (left axis)
-	Registered unemployed (left axis)
-	Registered unemployment rate (right axis)
Industry (B do E)
Construction
Market	Public
services	services
(G -N, S, T)	(O -R)
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
services. The registered unemployment rate dropped again in June, according to seasonally data (by 0.1 p.p. to 11.6%), but remained nearly 1 p.p. higher y-o-y.
In the first half of 2011, registered unemployment
otherwise decreased, on average, but remained higher y-o-y. In the second quarter of 2011, the number of registered unemployed declined relative to the first (-0.8%, seasonally adjusted), but remained higher y-o-y (10.6%). At the end of July, unemployment rose again, after several months
Table 2: Persons in employment by activity
4
seas
^ 2 0
	X ji
---------------/' J"	
12
io	^	io	io
Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD.
	Number in '000				Change in number			
	2010	VI 10	V 11	VI 11	10/09	VI 11/ V 11	VI 11/ VI 10	I-VI 11/ I-VI 10
A Agriculture, forestry and fishing	33.4	34.7	40.1	40.1	-4.437	0.1	5.4	5.8
B Mining and quarrying	3.0	3.0	2.9	2.9	-308	0.0	-0.1	2.9
C Manufacturing	188.6	189.0	185.1	184.6	-11.253	-0.4	-4.4	0.1
D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	8.0	8.0	7.9	7.9	54	0.0	-0.1	0.1
E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities	9.2	9.2	9.4	9.5	138	0.1	0.2	0.1
F Construction	78.5	79.3	69.4	69.4	-8.231	0.1	-9.8	-1.7
G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	111.8	112.2	110.1	110.1	-2.842	0.0	-2.0	-1.9
H Transportation and storage	47.9	48.0	47.3	47.2	-1.874	0.0	-0.8	-1.8
I Accommodation and food service activities	33.2	33.5	32.6	32.8	-806	0.2	-0.7	-1.7
J Information and communication	22.6	22.5	22.7	22.7	59	0.0	0.2	-1.5
K Financial and insurance activities	24.3	24.5	24.2	24.3	-208	0.0	-0.3	-1.4
L Real estate activities	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.2	-34	0.0	-0.2	-1.3
M Professional, scientific and technical activities	46.8	46.9	48.3	48.5	2.037	0.2	1.6	-1.0
N Administrative and support service activities	26.4	26.6	26.6	26.6	840	0.0	0.0	-1.0
O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security	52.0	52.4	51.6	51.6	502	0.0	-0.8	-0.9
P Education	63.5	63.4	64.8	64.7	1.833	-0.2	1.3	-0.8
Q Human health and social work activities	53.2	53.4	54.1	54.3	1.080	0.2	0.9	-0.7
R Arts, entertainment and recreation	14.2	14.2	14.0	13.9	125	-0.1	-0.3	-0.7
S Other service activities	13.5	13.5	13.3	13.4	185	0.0	-0.1	-0.7
10
14
8
6
10
8
6
4
2
0
job due to the termination of a fixed-term contract, which is typical for the time of summer holidays (especially in education).
The average gross wage per employee remained unchanged in June (seasonally adjusted). In the second quarter as a whole, its growth continued to ease. In June, the average gross wages per employee in the private and public sectors remained at the same levels as in the previous month, seasonally adjusted.10 The seasonally
Box 4: Labour force survey - the second quarter of 2011
According to the labour force survey, the number of persons in employment continued to drop in the second quarter, seasonally adjusted, and the survey unemployment rate declined. The number of employed persons according to the survey dropped by 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, and also remained lower y-o-y (-3.1%). According to original data, the number of employed persons according to the survey recorded a larger quarterly increase than the number of employed persons according to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), which is indicative of an increase in the volume of informal work in the second quarter. The number of unemployed persons according to the labour force survey declined by 7,000 in the second quarter (79,000) relative to the first (-1.1%, seasonally adjusted), but remained higher y-o-y (6.3%). The number of unemployed persons according to the survey declined relative to the first quarter for both genders, particularly women. The seasonally adjusted survey unemployment rate remained similar to that in the previous quarter (around 8%), and 0.7 p.p. higher than in the same period last year. Broken down by age groups, the survey unemployment rate is still highest for persons aged 15 to 24 (13.4%).
Figure 22: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements
Employed - SRE, left axis
Employed - ILO, left axis
-Registered unemployed, right axis
-Unemployed -ILO, right axis
Table 3: Labour market indicators
in %	2010	VI 11/ V 11	VI 11/ VI 10	I-VI 11/I-VI 10
Labour force	-1.0	-0.1	-0.1	0.0
Persons in formal employment	-2.7	0.0	-1.2	-0.7
- Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed	-2.6	0.0	-2.5	-1.3
Registered unemployed	16.4	-1.4	9.1	-0.8
Average nominal gross wage	3.9	0.3	2.0	2.6
- private sector	5.2	0.6	2.7	3.4
- public sector	0.0	-0.2	-0.1	0.1
	2010	VI 10	V 11	VI 11
Rate of registered unemployment, in %	10.7	10.5	11.6	11.4
Average nominal gross wage (in EUR)	1,494.88	1,491.57	1,515.63	1,520.92
Private sector (in EUR)	1,408.24	1,399.56	1,428.69	1,437.29
Public sector (in EUR)	1,749.46	1,761.92	1,763.65	1,759.80
Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD.
adjusted growth slowed further in the second quarter as a whole. In the public sector, it has stagnated around 0% for a year and a half, while in the private sector, it has been slowing since the first quarter of 2010 when the minimum wage was raised, in part also as a result of the vanishing effect of changes in employment structure.11 The y-o-y increase of the total gross wage in the first six months (2.6%) was attributable only to wage growth in the private sector (3.4%), as the average wage in the public sector stagnates.
Figure 23: Gross wage per employee
a	a
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
a	a	a
Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD.
The average wage in the private sector otherwise increased somewhat (0.6% in nominal terms) due to more working days, but the average wage in the public sector dropped (-0.2%) as a result of developments in health care. The total gross wage thus grew by 0.3%.
11 The effect of changes in employment structure in the private sector due to increased firing of low-wage employees, which contributed 0.5 p.p. to last year's 5.2% growth in the average gross wage in the private sector.
Table 4: Wages by activity
	Gross wage per employee, in EUR		Growth rates, %			
	2010	VI 2011	2010/ 2009	VI 11/ V 11	VI 11/ VI 10	I-VI 11/ I-VI 10
A Agriculture, forestry and fishing	1,267.00	1,301.93	5.8	0.2	3.4	5.6
B Mining and quarrying	1,904.97	1,881.60	4.0	1.0	-1.4	1.9
C Manufacturing	1,311.57	1,345.84	9.0	0.5	3.8	4.5
D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	2,095.67	2,234.68	3.7	8.5	6.8	3.4
E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities	1,444.70	1,445.14	2.2	0.3	2.3	0.7
F Constrution	1,211.63	1,270.53	4.4	3.4	3.4	3.6
G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	1,325.08	1,351.57	3.7	0.4	3.3	2.9
H Transportation and storage	1,421.14	1,456.43	2.0	2.9	5.4	2.6
I Accommodation and food service activities	1,074.27	1,100.69	4.0	0.2	2.6	3.5
J Information and communication	2,092.15	2,058.58	2.6	-0.2	0.5	1.1
K Financial and insurance activities	2,144.81	2,138.18	1.0	-4.7	-4.0	2.3
L Real estate activities	1,477.74	1,528.82	3.0	1.2	2.3	3.5
M Professional, scientific and technical activities	1,765.21	1,739.26	1.6	0.4	-0.3	0.3
N Administrative and support service activities	952.15	978.90	4.1	0.5	3.8	3.7
O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security	1,778.20	1,802.57	-0.6	0.2	0.6	0.9
P Education	1,730.26	1,749.54	0.6	-0.1	-0.3	0.3
Q Human health and social work activities	1,746.86	1,738.40	-0.3	-1.1	-0.6	-0.8
R Arts, entertainment and recreation	1,731.32	1,709.75	0.5	1.1	0.1	-0.7
S Other service activities	1,397.40	1,406.03	4.2	-0.5	2.0	2.0
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
Prices
After deflation in June and July, consumer prices rose by 0.3% in August. In the first eight months of this year, prices increased by 1.0%, being 0.9% higher y-o-y in August. According to the preliminary Eurostat figures, y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.5% in August.
Figure 24: Inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area
8
7 6 5
4 3
o
2 1 0 -1 -2
Inflation dropped somewhat in June and July. Price movements in Slovenia in June and July were marked by deflation, which totalled -1.6% in the two months as a whole. June's deflation largely resulted from lower prices of fresh fruit, which had increased substantially in previous months, while deflation in July reflected strong seasonal price falls in clothing and footwear, as well as fresh vegetables as a result of disturbances on the EU and domestic markets due to the outbreak of the bacterium escherichia coli.
The key drivers of the otherwise low inflation remain energy and food price rises. In July, y-o-y inflation totalled 0.9%, being solely the result of higher prices of food and energy, which contributed 0.4 p.p. and 0.7 p.p., respectively. Inflation declined somewhat due to deflation in services (-0.2 p.p.), which is, amid the otherwise moderate current price rises in services, highly attributable to the impact of the subsidy for school meals introduced in September 2010.
Inflation in the total euro area remains above the ECB target. Consumer prices in the euro area grew by 2.5% y-o-y in July, being, as in Slovenia, mainly underpinned by higher prices of energy and food, and, to a certain extent, higher taxes as a result of the consolidation of public finances in the euro area.
^^ ^^ ^^ Source: Eurostat.
Table 5: Breakdown of HICP into subgroups - for the first seven months of 2011
	Evro area			Slovenia		
	Cum. %	Weight %	Contribution in p.p.	Cum. %	Weight %	Contribution in p.p.
Total HICP	0.8	100.0	0.8	1.1	100.0	1.1
Goods	0.0	65.9	0.0	0.4	58.6	0.2
Processed food, alcohol and tobacco	4.3	15.3	0.7	2.5	11.9	0.3
Non-processed food	2.1	7.3	0.2	0.7	7.4	0.1
Non-energy industrial goods	-4.5	29.0	-1.3	-3.0	28.9	-0.9
Durables	-0.2	10.3	0.0	-0.4	9.5	0.0
Non-durables	0.2	8.7	0.0	0.7	8.3	0.1
Semi-durables	-11.8	10.0	-1.2	-7.5	11.2	-0.8
Energy	3.6	14.3	0.5	7.6	10.4	0.8
Electricity for households	1.6	2.6	0.0	6.4	2.5	0.2
Natural gas	8.1	1.0	0.1	6.5	1.7	0.1
Liquid fuels for heating	15.9	1.6	0.3	12.8	0.9	0.1
Solid fuels	1.9	1.0	0.0	1.7	0.1	0.0
District heating	5.0	0.8	0.0	4.0	0.5	0.0
Fuels and lubricants	0.9	7.2	0.1	7.8	4.7	0.4
Services	2.3	34.1	0.8	2.0	41.4	0.8
Services - dwellings	0.3	2.9	0.0	1.7	10.1	0.2
Services - transport	2.0	5.3	0.1	3.6	6.5	0.2
Services - communications	0.4	3.7	0.0	-1.2	3.2	0.0
Services - recreation, repairs, personal care	4.1	13.7	0.6	2.2	14.7	0.3
Services - other services	1.3	8.5	0.1	1.5	7.0	0.1
HICP excluding energy and non-processed food	0.2	78.4	0.2	0.2	82.3	0.2
Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification
Figure 25: Breakdown of y-o-y inflation in Slovenia
8
_	■ Other
' ■ Services
■	Fuels and energy
■	Food
5
0
-1 -2
J,	J,	,,	J,
Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.
Y-o-y growth in industrial producer prices on the domestic market remained at May's level in June and July. Total y-o-y growth in industrial producer prices on the domestic market declined in May due to the base effect related to the past movement of prices in the manufacture of metals (under the impact of metal prices in the international
environment) and maintained the achieved level in June and July (3.7%). The last two months saw somewhat stronger y-o-y price rises in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products and more moderate price growth in the manufacture of food.
Figure 26: Industrial producer prices
-PPI (domestic market)
---------Mfr. of furniture, and other manufacturing
-----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip.
----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products
---------Mfr. of chemicals and chemical prod., and basic pharm. products
16
2
The improvement of the price competitiveness of the economy continued in July, largely on account of the movement of relative prices, and was among the most pronounced in the euro area in the first seven months. The real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP dropped in July relative to December and July 2010, while it strengthened in all other countries in the euro area. In the first seven months of the year, only Ireland experienced a larger drop in the effective exchange rate than Slovenia relative to the same period last year. After deteriorating steadily for several years, this year's improvement in Slovenia's relative position reflects the more favourable movements of relative prices as well as of the nominal exchange rate. In Slovenia, relative prices declined y-o-y in the first seven months. In some euro area members, they increased, while in most of the others, their drop was smaller than in Slovenia.12 Because of the structure of Slovenia's external trade, Slovenia's price competitiveness was relatively less affected by the appreciation of the
euro.13
Figure 27: Real effective exchange rates deflated by HICP
J^	J^
Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD.
Balance of payments
The current account of the balance of payments ran
a surplus of EUR 127.5 m in June, and a surplus of EUR 117.5 m in the second quarter of this year (a deficit of EUR 118.4 m in the same period of last year). The surplus in current transactions in the second quarter was largely
12	However, the lower growth in consumer prices in Slovenia than in its trading partners was, besides weak economic activity, mainly due to the one-off impact of the reduction of the prices of school meals in Slovenia in September 2010. See SEM, September 2010.
13	As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the appreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate in Slovenia than in most other euro area countries, and vice versa: the depreciation of the euro has relatively smaller positive effects on the movement of Slovenia's nominal effective exchange rate.
Figure 28: Components of the current account balance
Trade balance	^«Services balance ^■Factor incomes ^«Current transfers -Current account
600 400 200 0
-600 -800 -1,000 -1,200
a	a	a
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
underpinned by the surplus in external trade and absorption of EU funds.
The favourable movements in external trade also continued in the second quarter of the year. The y-o-y surplus in trade in goods and services was therefore much higher (EUR 231.4 m). The trade deficit in goods in the second quarter was lower (EUR -176.6 m) than in the same period last year (-EUR 273.0 m). Quantity factors (faster real growth in exports than in imports) outweighed the worsening of the terms of trade. The terms of trade in goods have deteriorated for the sixth quarter in a row (-2.4%), yet less than in previous quarters, largely due to slower growth in import prices. The y-o-y easing of growth in import prices in the second quarter (from 9.7% to 6.0) was mainly related to lower rises in prices of intermediate goods and energy. Export prices also recorded slower y-o-y growth (from 6.7% to 3.4%), mainly due to more moderate price rises in intermediate and investment goods. The surplus in trade in services (EUR 408.0 m) was again higher y-o-y, mainly due to a wider surplus in trade in travel and road transport services. Among other services, deficits in trade in financial services and in miscellaneous business, professional and technical services widened most notably y-o-y, while the surplus in trade in construction services narrowed y-o-y.
The deficit in factor incomes in the second quarter was somewhat lower y-o-y. The balance of current transfers
improved as well. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes amounted to EUR 153.6 m and was down slightly y-o-y (by EUR 3.1 m). Its narrowing was due to smaller net outflows of dividends and distributed profits from direct investment and a higher net income from portfolio investment. On the other hand, net interest payments abroad were again higher y-o-y. Net interest payments by the government sector were higher y-o-y in the second quarter, as were net interest payments by the private sector, particularly commercial banks, which was related
Table 6: Balance of payments
I-VI 11, EUR m	Inflows	Outflows	Balance1	Balance, I - VI 10
Current account	13.759.7	13.691.6	68.1	-122.3
- Trade balance (FOB)	10.346.4	10.824.8	-478.4	-462.8
- Services	2.288.1	1.527.1	761.0	646.7
- Income	436.5	737.4	-300.9	-209.7
Current transfers	688.7	602.3	86.4	-96.5
Capital and financial account	3.541.2	-3.409.0	132.2	234.8
- Capital account	100.8	-114.1	-13.2	48.6
- Capital transfers	98.9	-110.0	-11.1	49.3
- Non-produced, non-financial assets	1.9	-4.0	-2.2	-0.8
- Financial account	3.440.4	-3.294.9	145.4	186.3
- Direct investment	294.7	49.7	344.4	-58.0
- Portfolio investment	2.907.5	-381.4	2.526.0	1.613.4
- Financial derivates	0.1	-79.6	-79.5	-87.1
- Other investment	217.5	-2.883.6	-2.666.1	-1.293.2
- Assets	7.3	-1.758.8	-1.751.5	-352.4
- Liabilities	210.2	-1.124.8	-914.6	-940.8
- Reserve assets	20.7	0.0	20.7	11.1
Net errors and omissions	0.0	-200.3	-200.3	-112.6
Sources: BS.
Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves..
Figure 29: Net interest payments by sector
^«General government Private sector -Total
50
§§	E5
cj	cj	cj	cj
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
to higher interbank interest rates. The balance of current transfers recorded a surplus of EUR 39.7 m in the second quarter of 2011 (a deficit of EUR 43.1 m in the same period last year), which was mainly underpinned by the higher absorption of EU funds.
International financial transactions14 recorded EUR 30.3 m in net inflows in the second quarter of 2011 (EUR 301.3 m in the same period last year). The government and
14 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors.
private sector recorded net repayments, while the Bank of Slovenia posted net borrowing in the second quarter of the year. After the net capital inflow of EUR 2,584.1 m in the first quarter due to the issuance of two bonds, portfolio investment recorded a net capital outflow in the amount of EUR 58.1 m in the second (mostly due to the payment of the matured long-term EUROBOND 6). Net flows of direct investment amounted to EUR 262.6 m in the second quarter (EUR 74.5 m in the same period last year), largely due to foreign direct investment, which was
Figure 30: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument
Direct investment	Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow
3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 00 0
-500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
mainly a result of foreign companies extending credits to their affiliates in Slovenia. Other investment continued to post a net outflow in the second quarter, totalling EUR 174.3 m (EUR 215.9 m in the same period last year). Short-term commercial credits recorded net outflows, albeit smaller than in the same period last year, which has to do with slower growth in merchandise trade. Domestic commercial banks continued to make net repayments of loans. The outflow of household currency to accounts abroad was also fairly high (EUR 312.8 m). The BS recorded a net inflow of currency and deposits in the amount of EUR 487.7 m in the second quarter of this year, which was largely due to its short-term borrowing from the Eurosystem.
Financial markets
The lending activity of Slovenian banks remained modest also in July. Household borrowing strengthened, while bank financing for enterprises and NFIs remains very limited. Enterprises and NFIs continue to repay loans taken out with domestic banks, while in May and June, they also repaid foreign loans. In the first seven months of the year, domestic non-banking sectors borrowed EUR 24.8 m from domestic banks, less than 3% of the amount in the same period last year. In July, banks otherwise recorded net inflows from foreign sources (loans and deposits) for the second successive month, but access to foreign sources of finance is still highly limited, according to our estimates. The government continues to withdraw gradually its deposits from the banking system, while household deposits strengthened significantly.
Table 7: Financial market indicators
Figure 31: Net flows and growth in the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors
Households (left axis)	Enterprises&NFI (left axis)
^^■Government (left axis)	-----Households (right axis)
-Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis)
40 35 30 25
20 15
5 0 -5 -10 -15
100 0 -100 -200 -300
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
Household borrowing strengthened in July, reaching the highest value this year (EUR 82.1 bn). In July, household also mainly took out housing loans. Borrowing in the form of consumer loans strengthened somewhat as well, while households continued to repay loans for other purposes. In the first seven months of this year, household net borrowing totalled EUR 224.8 m, a solid 55% less than in the same period last year. The decline is largely attributable to lower borrowing in the form of
Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings	Nominal amounts, EUR bn		Nominal loan growth, %		
	31. XII 10	31. VII 11	31. VII 11/30. VI 11	31. VII 11/31. XII 10	31. VII 11/31. VII 10
Loans total	33,515.91	33,544.13	0.0	0.1	0.6
Enterprises and NFI	23,035.85	22,896.14	-0.4	-0.6	-2.7
Government	1,197.94	1,141.09	-0.3	-4.7	31.1
Households	9,282.12	9,506.90	0.9	2.4	6.5
Consumer credits	2,833.17	2,786.43	0.4	-1.6	-1.0
Lending for house purchase	4,837.08	5,161.34	1.8	6.7	13.8
Other lending	1,611.87	1,559.13	-1.2	-3.3	-1.2
Bank deposits total	14,839.56	15,148.48	0.4	2.1	3.0
Overnight deposits	6,200.38	6,428.45	0.3	3.7	4.5
Short-term deposits	4,473.18	4,283.70	-0.3	-4.2	-8.0
Long-term deposits	4,156.65	4,429.59	1.1	6.6	13.8
Deposits redeemable at notice	9.35	6.74	-5.7	-28.0	-51.2
Mutual funds	2,048.36	1,976.89	-1.6	-3.5	1.5
Bančne vloge države skupaj	2,678.50	3,138.73	-6.5	17.2	6.0
Overnight deposits	64.40	109.18	20.4	69.5	122.5
Short-term deposits	555.35	1,046.97	-18.7	88.5	20.8
Long-term deposits	2,055.29	1,980.21	0.3	-3.7	-2.9
Deposits redeemable at notice	3.46	2.37	-15.1	-31.5	-50.2
Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD.
housing loans and higher net repayments of loans for other purposes, while net repayments of consumer loans dropped y-o-y.
Enterprises and NFIs increased repayments of domestic bank loans in July. Net repayments were recorded both by enterprises and NFI. In July alone, enterprises and NFIs recorded EUR 86.1 m in net repayments of domestic bank loans, which is the highest figure this year. In the first seven months, net repayments already amounted to EUR 143.1 m (EUR 374.9 m in the same period of last year), which is already almost one fifth more than in 2010 as a whole. After recording stronger borrowing abroad at the beginning of the year, enterprises and NFIs net repaid foreign loans in June for the second month in a row. Net repayments are largely attributable to repayments of long-term loans, while short-term borrowing increased, which could be a sign of both increased corporate demand for short-term loans and foreign banks being more cautious in extending loans to Slovenian enterprises and NFIs. In the first half of the year, enterprises and NFIs recorded EUR 82.3 m in net borrowing abroad, particularly on account of stronger net inflows in the first quarter of this year, in contrast to the same period last year, when they recorded EUR 237.3 m in net repayments of foreign loans. Because of higher interest rates in the euro area, the differences between domestic interest rates on loans over EUR 1 m with a variable, or up to one year with a fixed interest rate, and the average rate in the euro area declined to 202 b.p., but they are still among the greatest in the euro area. Total corporate and NFI borrowing with domestic and foreign banks is thus still easing, given that in the first six months this year, enterprises and NFIs recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 25.3 m, which is only one third of the amount in the same period last year.
Figure 32: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps in interest rates
Loans (left axis)
-Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis)
200
150
100
50
-50
-100
-150
350 300 250
cz
200
-Q
150 JE
100
50
-347
-188
Figure 33: Net flows and growth in the volume of bank loans to non-banking sectors in the euro area
^^m Households (left axis)	^^m Enterprlses&NFI (left axis)
Government (left axis)	-----Households (right axis)
-Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis)
150 120 90
c 60 (D
a 30 cc U "" 0
-30
-60
-90
-120
Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD.
The volume of non-banking sector loans in the euro area strengthened somewhat also in July. The bulk of the increase comes from further borrowing by enterprises and NFIs. Governments also recorded slight borrowing in July, while households net repaid their loans. Total net flows of loans to non-banking sectors thus totalled EUR 135.9 bn in the first seven months of this year, almost one half less than in the same period last year. The decline is a consequence of net repayments by governments and a slowdown in borrowing by households (especially in the last two months), while enterprises and NFIs borrowed as much as EUR 114.1 bn in the first seven months, almost double the figure in the same period last year.
Although banks recorded net borrowing abroad in June, access to foreign sources of finance remains limited,
Figure 34: Net bank borrowing abroad
1200
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
Source: BS.
0
0
according to our estimate. Net inflows of funds from foreign sources amounted to EUR 22.8 m in June, but the maturity structure deteriorated, as the total net inflows came from short-term loans, which reached one of the highest values in the last two years (EUR 208.3 m). On the other hand, banks increased repayments of both deposits and long-term loans. In the first six months of this year, banks thus net repaid foreign deposits and loans in the total amount of EUR 1.1 bn, which is already one third more than in the same period last year.
The quality of banks' assets deteriorates further and banks increasingly create impairments and provisions, though
growth rates ease, mainly as a result of the high base. The volume of non-performing claims reached 4.3% of all bank claims at the end of June, being 1.6 p.p. higher than in the same month last year. The growth of C-grade claims (17.0%) dropped by half y-o-y in the first six months of this year. Banks created EUR 61.2 m in additional impairments and provisions in July, and as much as EUR 357.1 m in the first seven months, which is 7.4% more than in the same period last year.
In July, household deposits increased at an above-average rate, while government deposits recorded a net outflow again. July's net inflows of household deposits amounted
Box 5: 2011 EU-wide bank stress tests
The European Banking Authority (EBA) carried out stress tests for major EU banks also in 2011 to assess the resilience of the banking systems to a possible further tightening associated with credit, market and government risks. The adverse scenario included even more variables1 than in 2010, in response to the estimates that in 2010 the stress tests did not take account of certain major risks. The stress tests were undertaken on 91 banks from 21 European countries, which represent approximately two thirds of the EU banking system. Besides some predominantly foreign-owned banks, the analysis of banks operating in Slovenia also includes the two largest Slovenian banks, in which the government still has a significant stake, Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d (NLB) and Nova Kreditna banka Maribor d.d. (NKBM). Eight EU banks failed to pass the test, as their Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio fell below the 5% threshold, with an overall shortfall of EUR 2.5 bn, while in 16 banks this ratio was between 5% and 6%. The stress tests took into account all capital increases conducted by the end of April 2011 in the total amount of EUR 50 bn, which helped to improve their results, as 20 banks would have otherwise failed to pass and in 14 banks the Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio would have fallen between 5% and 6%.
International comparisons show that Slovenia's banking system is among the least-capitalised in the euro area. The Slovenian banks participating in the tests were ranked in the bottom third of the tested banks in terms of the Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio at the end of 2010, with NLB holding the fifth lowest place. Both banks had increased their capital by a total amount of EUR 350 m by the end of April 2011 and thus improved their capital adequacy and test results, so that they managed to pass the tests. However, as pointed out by the BS, NLB should additionally strengthen its capital position and will be subject to reinforced scrutiny in the future. By 15 October, it should lay out a plan for a capital increase, which should be fully implemented by 15 April 2012.
Figure 35: Assessed Core Tier 1 Capital Ratios according to the worst scenario in 2012 (arithmetic average of banks included in stress tests)
10
Source: EBA; calculations by IMAD. Note: In brackets, the number of each country's banks participating in the stress tests.
Figure 36: Tier 1 capital ratio in individual euro area members in 2008 to 2010 (in %).
2008 ■ 2009
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
h. [T
Source: IMF. Note: ««Data for Q 2 2011, data for Q 3 2011.
Unemployment, a drop in real estate prices, an even larger decline in the value of government bonds.
18
14
16
12
8
6
4
2
0
Figure 37: Creation of additional impairments and provisions and the share of non-performing claims in Slovenia's banking system
Impairments and provisions (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis)
225 200 175 150 125 cc 100
ID
75 50 25 0 -25
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
io	io
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
to EUR 58.1 m, the highest July figure in the last four years. Long-term deposits increased the most again; their net inflows were otherwise the lowest in the last three months (EUR 49.1 m), albeit still above average (relative to the first seven months of this year). Long-term deposits and deposits redeemable at notice continue to drop. In the first seven months of this year, household deposits increased by EUR 308.9 m, by a solid fifth less than in the same period last year. Government deposits in commercial banks declined once again in July, after strengthening in June as a result of the transfer of government deposits from the BS. Net outflows amounted to EUR 216.7 m
Figure 38: Net inflows of household and government deposits to banks and y-o-y change in stock
^^m Households (left axis) ^^m Government deposits (left axis)
-Deposits, total (right axis)
-Households (right axis)
----Government deposits (right axis)
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
-300
-600
-900
-1,200
200
160
120
80
40
-40 •
-80
-120
-160
Source: BS; calculations by IMAD.
and were almost entirely attibutable to short-term time deposits. With two government bonds in the total amount of EUR 3 bn issued in the first quarter of this year, government deposits thus recorded net inflows of EUR 460.2 m in the first seven months of the year.
Public finance
In the first seven months of 2011, revenue from taxes and social security contributions totalled EUR 7.7 bn, 5.4% more than in the same period last year.15 The relatively strong y-o-y growth was largely due to the very low base particularly in the first five months of last year, when tax revenue had been lower as a result of the tax assessments based on deteriorated business performance in 2009 and certain changes in taxation. The greatest base effect was recorded in corporate income tax, as a result of tax assessments. In tax on income from entrepreneurial profits, the base effect was somewhat lower, while inflows of value added tax declined due to the change in deadlines for tax refunds at the beginning of last year. Exclusion of the assessment of corporate income tax alone in both years would mean a decline in y-o-y growth in general government revenue to 2.4% in the first seven months of this year (instead of 5.4%).
Revenue from all main tax categories was up y-o-y in the first seven months, as was revenue from social security contributions. Revenue from corporate income tax was still much higher y-o-y (73.5%), but the base effect due to the tax assessments according to the annual accounts16 diminishes gradually from month to month. The prepayments of corporate income tax were up 4.7% and 6.8% y-o-y in June and July, respectively. Revenue from indirect taxes also increased y-o-y, particularly revenue from value added tax (7.2%). The base effect in this tax also diminishes from month to month. It was most pronounced in March, as the decline in inflows from this tax in March 2010 was (in addition to regular tax assessments) also due to the effect of the statutory changes that had shortened deadlines for VAT refunds (to 21 days instead of 60). Among revenues from VAT, inflows of VAT from imports increase faster (20.7%), mainly due to rapid growth in import prices (commodities, energy), while inflows of accrued VAT grow more slowly (3.4%). Revenue from excise duties17 was 2.7% higher y-o-y in the first seven months, due to somewhat higher excise duty rates than in the same period last year and a little higher
15	Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-July 2011, Public Payments Administration.
16	At the beginning of 2010, revenue from corporate income tax was around EUR 170 m lower due to the tax assessments based on poor business results in 2009, a reduction of the tax rate and new tax relief, while this year's (positive) assessments increased revenue from this tax by EUR 48 m as a result of better business performance in 2010, slightly higher investment relief (2.6%), as well as a better adjustment of monthly tax prepayments to current business results and reduced statutory tax rate during the year.
17	The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments.
0
0
Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure
	2010			2011	
	EUR m	% of GDP	Growth, %	I-V 11 EUR m	I-V 11/ I-V 10
Revenue - total	14,789.5	41.1	2.7	6,126.1	10.6
- Tax revenues	12,848.3	35.7	-0.8	5,429.0	7.7
- Taxes on income and profit	2,490.7	6.9	-11.2	1,167.8	22.5
- Social security contributions	5,234.5	14.6	1.4	2,178.6	1.6
- Domestic taxes on goods and servises	4,780.6	13.3	2.6	1,972.0	7.6
- Receipts from the EU budget	724.6	2.0	21.5	338.8	90.5
Expenditure - total	16,675.9	46.4	1.9	7,026.7	3.0
- Wages and other personnel expenditure	3,914.9	10.9	0.1	1,656.1	0.5
- Purchases of goods and services	2,510.5	7.0	0.1	1,002.1	4.2
-Domače in tuje obresti	488.1	1.4	45.3	414.1	9.5
- Transfers to individuals and households	6,274.5	17.4	4.2	2,813.6	4.7
- Capital expenditure	1,305.1	3.6	0.9	285.0	-10.5
- Capital transfers	388.4	1.1	-21.6	83.6	-2.0
- Payment to the EU budget	396.8	1.1	-9.7	186.1	-7.2
quantity of main excise goods sold.18 Growth in revenue from wage-related taxes in the first seven months was modest and, given the high relative share in total revenue (around 55%), slows total revenue growth. Revenue from social security contributions was only by 1.0% higher y-o-y, revenue from tax on income from employment (accounting for the bulk of the personal income tax) by 1.6%. Total revenue from personal income tax was up 1.8% y-o-y, due to revenues from other personal income tax categories, which increased by 14.3% (particularly from tax on income from entrepreneurial profits), and tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments, which were also higher y-o-y in the first seven months (last year, EUR 119 m; this year, EUR 142 m).
According to the consolidated balance19 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 6.1 bn and general government expenditure EUR 7.0 bn in the first five months of 2011. Revenue was up 10.6% y-o-y (last year, -0.8%), expenditure 3.0% (last year, 3.2%). The consolidated balance recorded a deficit of EUR 901 m in the first five months, which is less than last year (EUR 1,282 m). Looking at the economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure increased y-o-y in the first five months, except expenditure on capital and capital transfers (-8.7%), where the decline mainly reflected the high level of this expenditure at the beginning of last year and this year's considerably lower investment activity of the government. Expenditure on interest payments saw the highest y-o-y growth in the first five months (9.5%). Transfers to individuals and households increased by 4.7%
Figure 39: Taxes and social security contributions
Taxes and contribution, EUR million (left axis) -Taxes and contribution, in % (right axis)
18	In the period from January to June, 5.7% more alcohol and alcohol products were sold y-o-y, 1.2% more tobacco and tobacco products, while the quantities of main mineral oils were equal to those sold last year.
19	The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds.
3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500
c (D
■ ^ 3,400
cc
ZD
LU
3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000
15 10
S
0
-5
-20
a	a	a
Source: PPA; calculations by IMAD.
(6.8%, excluding pensions). Expenditure on pensions was 3.6% higher, after the modest valorisation of pensions in February, which is, according to the emergency act, set at a quarter of the statutorily defined adjustment. Expenditure on other transfers (excluding pensions) has been growing more rapidly for the fourth successive year, with expenditure on transfers to the unemployed still rising fastest (40.9%), mainly due to the deteriorating labour market conditions, but also as a result of systemic changes. Other transfers to individuals and households are also increasing at a very rapid pace (9.7%). Growth in expenditure on sickness benefits is high as well (6.3%). Expenditure on goods and services and expenditure on subsidies recorded slower growth in May. Expenditure on goods and services increased 4.2% and expenditure on
Source: MF.
20
5
Figure 40: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure
1,450
1,400
1,350
1= 1,300
E 1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
-General government revenues -General government expenditures
Figure 41: Planned and absorbed EU funds
Common Agricultural Policy
Cohesion policy
Internal policies
Other
io	^	io	io
Source: MF; calculations by IMAD.
200 300 400 500
EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD.
subsidies 2.6% y-o-y in the first five months of the year. Growth in expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures was modest (0.5%; last year, -0.2%).
The deficit of the state budget amounted to EUR 871 m in the first five months, much less than a year before (EUR 1,238 m). The total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus in the amount of EUR 8 m, while the health fund ran a deficit in the amount of EUR 39.6 m. The transfer from the state budget into the pension fund totalled EUR 707 m (5.4% more than in the same period last year).
The absorption of EU funds in June and July was lower than in the first half of the year. In both months, Slovenia's net budgetary position towards the EU budget was positive. In June, Slovenia's receipts from the EU budget totalled EUR 48.0 m and its payments into the EU budget EUR 23.7 m. In July, Slovenia received EUR 54.1 m from the EU budget and contributed EUR 32.3 m. In the first seven months of this year, Slovenia thus received EUR 440.7 m, which is 41.6% of the level planned. The highest realisation (61.3%) was recorded for funds absorbed under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, and the lowest for receipts from the Cohesion Fund (11.9%). In the same period, Slovenia paid EUR 242 m into the EU budget, which is 55.0% of all planned funds, so that its net budgetary position towards the EU budget was positive in the amount of EUR 198.6 m, which is five times more than in the same period last year.
0
600
M %J
a o
■o
01
u
31 0!
Indebtedness of Slovenian enterprises
The financial crisis represents a negative shock for the supply of external finance for non-financial companies. In Slovenia, loans account for a relatively larger share of external finance for non-financial companies than in more developed financial markets of the euro area. In favourable economic times, loan growth was strong, while during the crisis, this source of funds was affected both by a lower supply of loans as well as increased financial liabilities of companies. Companies were thus faced with severe liquidity limitations, which additionally impeded business growth. This chapter analyses the actual structure and movements of Slovenian corporate debt before and during the crisis (2007-2010) based on individual data.20
The share of debt in total assets in private sector companies21 grew persistently in the period before the crisis22 (20032008). In the first year of the crisis, 2009, the share of debt remained at the 2008 level, while in 2010, with the financial crisis deepening further and also affecting enterprises in non-export oriented sectors, it dropped by 3.4 p.p. to 66%.
These debt dynamics can be partly explained by bank loans and accounts payable in total assets, used by companies to finance their own business operations. Accounts payable, which represent an additional source of funds, remained fairly stable in 2006-2010 (at around 13%). At the beginning of the crisis, in 2009, it declined slightly (by 0.9 p.p.), then went down significantly in 2010 (by 4.4 p.p. to 11.2%). The share of bank loans in total assets, after growing constantly in the whole period until 2008, remained at the 2008 level in 2009 (34.8%) and increased by 1 p.p. to 35.8% in 2010. Regarding the structure of external sources of finance, these data show that the significant deterioration in payment discipline was not so much transferred to suppliers as it increased the significance of the banking system.
The shrinkage in private sector business operations at the beginning of the crisis also affected the return on assets
Figure 42: Share of debt, bank loans and accounts payable in total assets and return on assets (ROA23) of private sector companies24
■	Debt in total assets	Bank loans in total assets
■	Accounts payable in total assets ♦ Return on assets (ROA), right axis
3.5
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
L
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
c [
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD.
Figure 43: Share of debt in total assets by private sector activities relative to the situation in 2010
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 =^20 10 0
I
20	Data from balance sheets and income statements of all companies in Slovenia, gathered by AJPES. The analysis excludes extreme outliers where growth of financial liabilities of enterprises to banks exceeds 50,000%, as well as holdings, as these could distort the picture of the actual state of affairs as regards loans to Slovenian companies. The final sample covers 25,232 companies over an average four-year time-horizon (i.e. 100,928 units), which between 2003 and 2010 accounted for 89.4% of all bank loans of companies included in the data base.
21	Share of debt in total assets=Zin=1((Provisions and long-term accrued costs and deferred revenues (aop72)+Long-term liabilities (aop75)+Short-term liabilities (aop85)+Short-term accrued costs (expenses) and deferred revenues (aop95)) ))/Iin=, (Assets (aop1)), where i=1,2,^n and n represents the number of all enterprises in the sample.
22	As data are captured annually, the year 2008 is also included in the pre-
crisis period, even though the crisis actually started in the last quarter
of 2008. Foreign demand dropped considerably in that period, which
contributed to a drop in orders, especially in export oriented activities. Export-oriented enterprises suffered the main shock in the second half of
2009, while other enterprises were hit somewhat later.
Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD.
(ROA). After increasing persistently in 2003-2007, the return on assets declined by 2.2 p.p. in 2008-2010, and even turned negative in 2010 (-0.6%). This leads us to conclude that debt reduction largely results from a decline in economic activity and hence the return on assets of companies, which have had to cope with lower foreign and domestic demand.
23	Return on assets (ROA)= Iin=1(((Net profit for the period (aop186) - Net loss for the period (aop187)))/i;n=1(Assets (aop1)) where i=1,2,_n and n represents the number of enterprises in the sample.
24	Private sector (according to SCA 2002): activities from A to K.
2008
2009
The analysis of business sector debt by activities shows that in 2007-2010, the most heavily indebted enterprises were in financial intermediation25 (93%), construction (almost 84%), real estate (75%) and wholesale and retail trade (71%). In addition to manufacturing, where debt accounts for 58%, the above-mentioned activities (with the exception of real estate) also recorded the largest share of non-performing claims.26 Companies in wholesale and retail trade account for 32.2% of all companies, those in manufacturing for 22%, in construction for 9.3% and financial intermediation for 1.3%, while the remaining 35.2% operate in other activities not subject to analysis.
In the period before the crisis (2003-2008), the share of debt in total assets increased in all above-mentioned activities. It also continued to grow during the crisis (2009-2010), except in manufacturing where it declined by 0.2 p.p. In financial intermediation, it increased by 2.7 p.p., in construction by 2 p.p. and in wholesale and retail trade by 1 p.p. Companies in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade and particularly financial intermediation largely use bank loans to finance their operations, unlike those in construction, which are increasing debt to suppliers.
The following paragraphs focus on construction and manufacturing activities. The latter accounted for the largest share in value added (17%) in 2010 and are recovering fastest from the crisis due to their high export-
Figure 44: Growth of real sales revenues and return on assets (ROA)
12007
20 15 10 5 0
P
^ -5 -10 -15 -20
12008	2009
12010
Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD.
25	Data from annual financial statements of companies in financial intermediation do not include data for banks and insurance companies.
26	Data are otherwise not fully comparable because this analysis of corporate indebtedness in Slovenia uses data by activities according to SCA 2002, while the share of non-performing claims is classified according to the currently applicable SCA 2008. Significant discrepancies are observed particularly in financial intermediation activities, which, according to the new classification, include holdings (accounting for a major share of non-performing claims in the financial sector), contrary to the previous classification, which places holdings under real estate, renting and business activities.
orientation (70%). Construction, on the other hand, is a domestic-market-oriented industry, which contributes less than 6% of value added and is still dragged down by the crisis.
The share of bank loans in total assets in manufacturing increased in the whole period (to 29% in 2010), but less vigorously than before the crisis. The share of debt to suppliers (i.e. accounts payable in total assets) was more than half lower, around 13% in the whole period. Bank loans (i.e. financial liabilities of manufacturing companies to banks), which had been still increasing in the period before the crisis and then dropped by nearly 3% at the onset of the crisis, strengthened again in 2010, by almost 2%. The crisis first hit the exporting part of the economy, particularly manufacturing as the most export-oriented sector. In the year 2008 (the crisis began in the last quarter of 2008), growth in sales revenues in manufacturing already turned negative (-4%). In 2009, when the crisis deepened, manufacturing companies also recorded the largest decline in sales revenues compared with those in other activities (almost 21%). However, in 2010, when the situation in Slovenia's main trading partners had already stabilised, they also experienced the strongest growth in sales revenues relative to companies in other sectors that are predominantly oriented to the domestic market (8.2%). The restricted cash flow in manufacturing companies is thus, according to our estimates, one of the main reasons why bank borrowing of these companies slowed.
The crisis also changed the relationship between long-term and short-term loans in total assets of manufacturing companies. Manufacturing companies typically had a higher share of short-term loans in the whole period, which we estimate is also a result of the fact that companies in this sector mainly took out loans to finance current operations, and that by encouraging short-term borrowing, banks adjusted the maturity structure of their balance sheets. The maturity structure started to change in 2009, when the volume of short-term loans decreased by 8.4% because of a decline in business operations. The falling also continued into 2010 (-4%). Growth in long-term loans declined during the crisis, but was still at around 4% in 2009 and around 8% in 2010. The shares of long-term and short-term loans in total assets were almost equal in 2010. Short-term loans accounted for 14.7% and long-term loans for 14.3%.
By far the highest accounts payable in total assets were recorded for companies in construction.27 In the period under consideration, the share of accounts payable averaged 29%, having dropped by 2.7 p.p. to 27.3% during the crisis. The share of bank loans in total assets was around 26% in the same period. It was rising constantly throughout the period and reached about 34% in 2010 (an increase of as much as 4.5 p.p. in 2010). When the crisis began, bank loans became more important than accounts payable.
27 The lack of payment discipline is a major issue in this activity.
Table 9: Growth in the shares of accounts payable, bank loans, long-term and short-term bank loans in total assets, in 2007-2011(%)
		2007	2008	2009	2010
Manufacturing	Accounts payable*	14.3	12.8	11.2	12.5
	Bank loans*	24.9	28.2	28.8	29.0
	Long-term	11.3	12.1	13.3	14.3
	Short-term	13.6	16.1	15.5	14.8
Construction	Accounts payable*	30.0	29.4	27.3	25.6
	Bank loans*	26.4	27.8	29.7	34.2
	Long-term	8.5	7.1	9.6	11.2
	Short-term	18.0	20.6	20.1	23.0
Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. Note: SCA 2002; *in total assets
The relationship between long-term and short-term loans in total assets in the construction sector has remained unchanged during the crisis. Both short-term and long-term loans are rising, but the share of the latter prevails. In 2010, long-term loans accounted for 11% and short-term loans for 23%. As construction companies operate predominantly on the domestic market, this sector was one of the vulnerable activities that saw the volume of bank loans increase in 2009. Growth in bank loans has otherwise declined significantly after 2007, but was nevertheless at 10% in 2009 and just below 2% in 2010, which is rather surprising, considering that sales revenues in this sector fell by more than a fifth in 2009 and then again by 16% in 2010. At the same time, the return on assets (ROA) has already turned negative at the beginning of the crisis (in 2010, -4.1%). One of the reasons why construction companies continued to borrow despite their unfavourable financial situation could be that banks, due to their low capital adequacy and high exposure to the construction sector, refinanced the existing, and
extended new loans rather than deteriorating their capital adequacy by setting aside provisions for loan losses in case these companies went bankrupt.
Slovenian companies were already highly indebted at the beginning of the crisis, which is corroborated by the fact that the share of debt in total assets had increased persistently in the period before the crisis. During the crisis, companies started to reduce debt due to declining economic activity and lower availability of loans. Companies in the construction sector stand out the most, with the volume of loans also growing during the crisis, even though their business operations have not yet started to improve. This growth may be attributable to the high exposure of banks to the construction sector and their high vulnerability to additional deterioration of capital adequacy, which would be the case if these companies' credit ratings declined. Manufacturing industries continue to reduce debts, despite a general improvement in business operations.
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MAIN INDICATORS	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
						Spring forecast 2011		
GDP (real growth rates, in %)	5.8	6.9	3.6	-8.0	1.4	2.2	2.6	2.2
GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate)	31,050	34,562	37,280	35,311	35,416	36,843	38,788	40,602
GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate)	15,464	17,120	18,437	17,295	17,286	18,052	18,967	19,820
GDP per capita (PPS)1	20,700	22,100	22,800	20,700	21,200	-	-	-
GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)'	88	88	91	88	87	-	-	-
Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate)	30,677	33,828	36,232	34,593	34,894	36,067	37,842	39,627
Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate)	30,462	33,601	35,871	34,344	34,940	36,069	37,795	39,654
Rate of registered unemployment	9.4	7.7	6.7	9.1	10.7	12.1	12.3	12.3
Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO)	6.0	4.9	4.4	5.9	7.2	7.9	8.0	8.0
Labour productivity (GDP per employee)	4.3	3.7	0.8	-6.2	3.6	3.4	2.9	2.5
Inflation,2 year average	2.5	3.6	5.7	0.9	1.8	2.2	3.0	2.4
Inflation,2 end of the year	2.8	5.6	2.1	1.8	1.9	3.0	2.7	2.2
INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS								
Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %)	12.5	13.7	2.9	-17.2	9.5	6.9	6.7	6.3
Exports of goods	13.4	13.9	0.5	-18.1	11.0	7.7	7.4	6.6
Exports of services	8.6	13.2	14.3	-13.7	4.1	3.4	3.3	4.8
Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %)	12.2	16.7	3.7	-19.6	7.2	5.1	6.0	5.2
Imports of goods	12.7	16.2	3.0	-20.8	8.0	5.2	6.0	5.1
Imports of services	8.8	19.7	8.2	-12.0	2.6	4.7	6.0	5.9
Current account balance, in EUR million	-771	-1646	-2574	-456	-297	-865	-924	-606
As a per cent share relative to GDP	-2.5	-4.8	-6.9	-1.3	-0.8	-2.3	-2.4	-1.5
Gross external debt, in EUR million	24,067	34,752	38,997	40,008	40,851	42,3515		
As a per cent share relative to GDP	77.5	100.5	104.6	113.3	115.3			
Ratio of USD to EUR	1.254	1.371	1.471	1.393	1.327	1.362	1.365	1.365
DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS								
Private consumption (real growth rates, in %)	2.8	6.1	3.7	-0.1	-0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0
As a % of GDP4	52.8	52.4	53.2	55.8	56.0	56.7	55.8	55.2
Government consumption (real growth rates, in %)	4.0	0.6	6.1	2.9	1.5	0.8	0.6	0.6
As a % of GDP4	18.8	17.3	18.1	20.3	20.8	20.1	19.7	19.6
Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %)	10.4	13.3	7.8	-23.3	-8.3	2.9	4.5	3.0
As a % of GDP4	26.5	27.8	28.8	23.4	21.6	22.8	23.1	23.2
Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End June 2011.								
PRODUCTION	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009				
				Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	6	7	8	9	10
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Industry B+C+D	2.5	-17.4	6.7	-24.6	-18.4	-7.1	-0.4	11.2	8.0	7.8	9.6	4.7	-21.6	-20.8	-17.6	-16.8	-19.6
B Mining and quarrying	5.5	-2.9	12.6	-13.7	6.1	4.8	-8.2	14.1	26.5	18.0	-4.0	-9.7	-7.9	4.5	13.3	1.8	-4.3
C Manufacturing	2.6	-18.7	7.1	-25.9	-19.5	-7.9	0.1	12.1	7.9	7.7	10.1	5.2	-22.5	-22.1	-19.4	-17.2	-20.8
D Electricity, gas & steam supply1	2.1	-6.6	1.8	-8.6	-9.7	-5.5	-2.8	-0.5	3.6	7.0	6.6	3.3	-11.2	-9.6	-7.3	-11.9	-5.6
CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Construction, total	15.7	-21.0	-17.0	-19.0	-24.5	-20.5	-18.9	-16.8	-16.4	-16.2	-25.3	-31.0	-15.9	-20.8	-19.5	-32.0	-28.3
Buildings	11.5	-22.6	-14.0	-21.8	-27.4	-19.6	-7.4	-12.4	-16.5	-19.2	-41.5	-46.9	-23.4	-23.2	-26.8	-31.4	-28.2
Civil engineering	18.9	-19.9	-18.9	-17.2	-22.6	-21.1	-29.3	-19.6	-16.2	-14.1	-6.3	-20.3	-10.7	-19.4	-14.1	-32.3	-28.4
TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Tonne-km in road transport	18.4	-9.2	7.9	-7.6	-12.3	-4.7	19.8	10.7	9.5	-6.3	-3.2	-			-	-	
Tonne-km in rail transport	-2.3	-24.2	28.2	-26.0	-30.7	-15.9	18.8	33.9	32.2	28.2	23.3	-			-	-	
Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Total real turnover*	10.1	-13.0	3.6	-15.5	-16.0	-10.0	-1.4	4.9	4.7	5.3	6.7	5.8	-12.6	-14.8	-15.1	-18.2	-13.0
Real turnover in retail trade	12.2	-10.6	-0.1	-11.3	-13.8	-11.1	-4.7	0.3	2.0	1.8	2.7	1.8	-9.5	-11.5	-13.3	-16.7	-12.9
Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles	6.2	-21.7	12.1	-28.0	-23.6	-8.1	6.3	15.4	11.8	14.1	15.4	15.0	-23.1	-25.6	-20.6	-24.6	-16.0
Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade	17.1	-21.4	1.4	-23.9	-26.7	-18.1	-7.9	4.1	5.5	3.7	12.2	3.6	-21.2	-27.5	-24.8	-27.6	-23.4
TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards																	
Total, overnight stays	1.8	-3.4	-1.5	-4.6	-1.8	-5.3	-0.4	-2.4	-2.2	0.4	3.1	6.6	-2.7	-3.4	0.8	-3.9	-2.9
Domestic tourists, overnight stays	5.2	2.8	-4.2	1.2	6.7	-4.0	1.3	-3.0	-9.6	-0.3	0.1	0.4	2.9	8.9	6.8	2.1	1.9
Foreign tourists, overnight stays	-0.5	-8.0	0.7	-8.6	-7.1	-6.4	-2.1	-2.0	3.2	1.0	6.5	11.3	-67	-11.7	-3.0	-7.3	-6.5
Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants	6.7	-7.8	2.9	-8.2	-8.0	-11.0	0.0	1.5	4.2	5.9	3.4	2.7	-9.2	-7.8	-5.9	-10.3	-11.2
AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m	529.9	449.3	454.5	105.9	109.0	129.0	94.6	106.7	115.6	137.5	100.4	113.3	34.1	35.9	33.8	39.2	43.4
BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**)																	
Sentiment indicator	3	-23	-9	-28	-18	-13	-12	-9	-6	-8	-7	-4	-24	-21	-19	-13	-12
Confidence indicator																	
- in manufacturing	-5	-23	-1	-27	-19	-13	-7	-1	3	0	4	3	-22	-23	-20	-14	-15
- in construction	2	-50	-57	-51	-54	-51	-57	-60	-56	-54	-52	-46	-53	-49	-58	-55	-55
- in services	27	-13	-3	-24	-9	-1	-2	-5	-1	-3	1	4	-22	-12	-10	-4	5
- in retail trade	22	-13	7	-17	-9	-7	-6	11	12	12	1	14	-18	-16	-6	-6	-7
Consumer confidence indicator	-20	-30	-25	-32	-23	-25	-25	-23	-27	-25	-27	-25	-24	-26	-26	-17	-26
Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; »»Seasonally adjusted data.																	
2009		2010												2011							
11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
																					
-1.8	4.7	-8.8	-1.4	8.3	9.1	14.3	10.1	6.8	13.4	4.9	5.6	5.1	13.4	14.7	7.2	7.5	4.1	5.6	4.4		
32.4	-14.8	-7.2	-18.0	0.2	10.7	20.9	10.7	18.6	39.7	22.5	24.5	-1.0	41.5	-4.4	1.1	-7.7	-4.4	-21.4	-2.1		
-2.6	5.2	-8.8	-0.9	9.0	10.2	15.1	11.0	7.5	14.3	3.6	5.5	5.6	12.7	15.3	7.5	8.2	4.3	6.4	4.7		
-4.6	-6.3	-7.7	-2.0	1.9	-2.1	3.1	-2.3	-3.6	1.2	13.6	2.2	0.6	17.4	10.6		3.2	5.3	2.9	1.7		
																					
-18.3	-9.5	-11.3	-24.2	-19.8	-17.9	-15.5	-17.2	-17.4	-13.0	-18.7	-18.0	-17.5	-12.2	-20.9	-23.6	-29.7	-27.0	-29.3	-35.9		
-20.0	-7.4	-6.6	-10.2	-5.5	-13.7	-7.5	-15.8	-11.2	-17.8	-20.3	-17.4	-28.1	-12.4	-25.9	-41.2	-53.1	-37.9	-48.0	-53.9		
-17.2	-11.3	-15.9	-38.5	-30.8	-20.6	-20.3	-18.0	-21.0	-10.0	-17.6	-18.3	-10.3	-12.1	-15.4	2.7	-5.2	-19.0	-16.6	-24.7	-	-
																					
-	-	-	-	-								-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-								-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
																					
-11.1	-5.9	-4.8	-3.6	4.2	3.1	4.2	7.3	2.4	5.0	6.8	4.2	9.0	4.1	8.8	10.0	4.1	3.5	6.1	1.4	-	
-13.5	-7.0	-8.5	-5.2	-0.5	-1.7	-1.0	3.6	1.8	1.0	3.1	1.3	3.6	0.4	3.9	5.5	0.6	0.3	1.8	-1.1	-0.8	
-7.2	-1.2	5.2	-0.4	14.1	14.5	16.0	15.6	3.8	16.2	15.3	10.7	20.2	14.1	19.6	19.0	10.4	10.1	14.2	6.3	2.3	
-19.0	-11.1	-10.8	-13.1	-0.9	-3.4	5.0	10.8	3.1	7.9	5.6	1.1	4.8	5.3	11.2	15.4	10.5	4.3	5.9	0.8	-	
																					
-7.2	-6.5	1.0	-2.1	0.1	-1.7	-3.0	-2.5	-1.7	-3.6	-0.3	2.5	-0.8	-1.2	4.9	-1.9	6.7	13.6	-4.2	10.6	3.5	
-5.1	-9.2	3.5	-0.1	1.1	2.1	-7.2	-3.3	-9.0	-11.1	-7.9	-3.0	-0.5	3.2	0.1	-2.0	2.7	9.3	-3.0	-3.4	-4.1	
-9.3	-3.7	-0.9	-5.2	-1.0	-4.6	-0.1	-1.8	4.3	1.6	4.4	7.0	-1.1	-5.4	8.6	-1.7	11.0	17.2	-5.0	21.6	8.9	
-11.6	-10.3	0.5	-1.5	1.1	-1.4	2.3	3.6	5.6	4.8	2.2	6.8	5.3	5.7	4.7	2.7	2.8	4.9	-1.5	4.8	-	
																					
38.4	47.2	29.7	28.6	36.4	35.5	36.0	35.1	37.4	36.2	42.1	45.7	44.1	47.7	32.9	30.5	36.9	36.9	39.6	36.8		
																					
-14	-14	-10	-11	-15	-12	-9	-6	-5	-7	-7	-7	-8	-9	-7	-7	-6	-4	-3	-5	-5	-7
																					
-12	-11	-6	-8	-6	-3	-1	2	6	1	2	3	-2	-1	4	4	3	5	4	1	1	-1
-49	-49	-55	-56	-61	-62	-58	-59	-60	-56	-51	-50	-55	-56	-55	-50	-50	-49	-44	-45	-46	-42
-5	-3	5	2	-12	-9	-4	-3	0	-1	-2	-4	-2	-2	0	-2	4	5	3	3	4	6
-7	-6	-8	-6	-5	9	9	14	10	14	12	13	10	12	-4	12	-4	13	16	13	-4	-6
-24	-26	-25	-23	-26	-24	-23	-21	-27	-27	-26	-26	-24	-26	-26	-28	-26	-27	-24	-23	-24	-27
LABOUR MARKET	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009		
				Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	7	8	9
FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E)	942.5	944.5	935.5	945.6	942.6	943.9	935.8	937.8	933.8	934.8	936.8	937.5	944.1	941.6	942.1
PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)'	879.3	858.2	835.0	861.0	854.3	848.4	836.3	839.2	835.4	829.3	821.9	828.4	855.6	853.5	853.8
In agriculture, forestry, fishing	39.7	37.9	33.4	38.0	37.9	37.8	31.9	34.6	34.0	33.3	38.0	40.1	37.9	37.9	37.9
In industry, construction	330.4	306.9	287.3	309.3	304.0	296.8	290.9	289.2	287.0	281.9	273.7	274.2	305.3	303.9	302.8
Of which: in manufacturing	222.4	199.8	188.6	201.4	196.7	191.7	190.0	189.4	188.1	186.8	184.1	184.7	197.8	196.5	195.9
in construction	87.9	86.8	78.5	87.6	86.9	84.8	80.9	79.6	78.6	75.0	69.7	69.3	87.2	86.9	86.5
In services	509.1	513.4	514.3	513.7	512.4	513.7	513.5	515.3	514.3	514.1	510.2	514.1	512.4	511.7	513.1
Of which: in public administration	51.0	51.5	52.0	51.5	51.7	51.6	51.8	52.3	52.1	51.8	51.2	51.5	51.7	51.7	51.8
in education, health-services, social work	111.1	113.8	116.7	114.1	113.3	114.7	115.9	116.8	116.3	118.0	117.8	118.8	113.0	112.6	114.2
FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1	789.9	767.4	747.2	770.8	762.9	756.1	750.1	751.0	747.0	740.6	728.1	731.9	764.5	762.1	762.1
In enterprises and organisations	717.6	699.4	685.7	701.9	695.5	690.5	687.2	688.7	685.7	681.3	671.4	673.9	696.5	694.6	695.2
By those self-employed	72.3	67.9	61.5	68.8	67.4	65.7	62.9	62.3	61.4	59.3	56.7	58.0	68.0	67.5	66.8
SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D)	89.4	90.8	87.8	90.3	91.4	92.2	86.2	88.1	88.3	88.7	93.8	96.5	91.1	91.4	91.7
REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E)	63.2	86.4	100.5	84.6	88.3	95.6	99.4	98.6	98.4	105.5	114.9	109.1	88.5	88.1	88.4
Female	33.4	42.4	47.9	41.6	43.2	46.4	47.0	46.8	47.8	50.2	52.9	50.9	43.5	43.2	43.0
By age: under 26	9.1	13.3	13.9	13.1	12.8	15.2	14.7	13.5	12.4	15.1	14.5	12.6	13.0	13.0	12.2
aged over 50	21.9	26.2	31.4	25.6	26.9	28.3	29.6	30.3	31.1	34.5	40.1	39.1	26.6	26.8	27.1
Unskilled	25.4	34.1	37.5	33.6	34.8	36.6	38.2	37.1	36.6	38.2	41.6	39.2	34.7	34.7	35.0
For more than 1 year	32.3	31.5	42.8	30.4	31.1	33.4	38.1	41.8	44.0	47.2	48.7	48.6	30.7	31.0	31.7
Those receiving benefits	14.4	27.4	30.0	27.4	28.6	30.8	31.6	29.3	29.3	29.7	39.7	36.4	28.9	28.5	28.3
RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in %	6.7	9.1	10.7	8.9	9.4	10.1	10.6	10.5	10.5	11.3	12.3	12.2	9.4	9.4	9.4
Male	5.6	8.3	10.1	8.1	8.5	9.3	10.1	9.9	9.7	10.7	12.0	11.9	8.5	8.5	8.6
Female	8.1	10.2	11.6	10.0	10.4	11.1	11.3	11.3	11.5	12.1	12.6	12.5	10.5	10.4	10.4
FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE	-2.2	30.4	13.3	6.8	1.9	8.3	2.2	-0.7	-0.3	12.1	3.9	-6.9	2.0	-0.4	0.3
New unemployed first-job seekers	12.5	17.0	16.8	2.6	3.0	8.1	2.9	2.4	2.8	8.7	3.2	2.0	0.8	0.7	1.5
Redundancies	53.0	90.5	83.5	22.5	19.9	23.2	19.9	16.6	18.5	28.6	24.4	16.8	7.3	5.5	7.2
Registered unemployed who found employment	41.7	48.6	57.0	11.8	14.2	13.1	14.2	12.8	15.5	14.5	17.5	17.2	4.0	4.6	5.5
Other outflows from unemployment (net)	26.1	28.5	29.9	6.5	6.9	9.9	6.3	6.9	6.0	10.7	6.2	8.5	2.1	1.9	2.8
REGISTERED VACANCIES3	240.5	161.3	174.6	40.3	41.9	39.0	37.9	44.3	45.9	46.5	45.5	52.9	14.7	12.3	14.9
For a fixed term, in %	74.5	78.1	80.7	77.9	80.8	78.6	78.9	81.2	82.2	80.0	81.5	81.0	80.0	82.0	80.7
WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS	51.5	54.9	41.6	58.7	53.0	47.3	44.1	42.1	40.7	39.4	38.0	35.5	54.8	52.8	51.4
As % of labour force	8.6	9.2	8.1	9.5	9.0	8.4	8.2	8.1	8.0	8.0	7.9	3.7	9.2	9.0	8.9
NEW JOBS	162.7	111.4	104.1	27.3	28.2	28.3	23.6	25.1	27.9	27.5	27.3	27.3	8.7	6.8	12.6
Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS.															
2009			2010												2011					
10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6
945.0	945.5	941.3	935.7	935.8	935.8	938.6	937.3	937.5	934.3	933.0	934.1	938.2	937.2	929.0	936.0	937.3	937.1	938.4	937.7	936.3
850.4	850.0	844.7	836.1	836.0	836.9	839.3	838.9	839.3	835.9	834.0	836.2	835.5	833.4	819.0	820.9	821.7	823.1	826.9	829.0	829.2
37.9	37.8	37.7	31.9	31.9	31.9	34.6	34.6	34.7	34.1	34.0	34.0	33.3	33.3	33.1	38.0	38.0	38.1	40.1	40.1	40.1
298.8	297.6	294.0	291.5	290.6	290.7	289.9	289.2	288.6	287.9	286.5	286.6	285.8	283.9	276.0	274.4	273.6	273.1	273.5	274.7	274.4
192.5	192.1	190.6	190.0	189.9	190.0	189.7	189.4	189.0	188.5	187.7	188.1	188.4	187.9	184.1	183.9	184.3	184.3	184.3	185.1	184.6
86.0	85.2	83.3	81.5	80.7	80.5	80.1	79.5	79.3	79.1	78.6	78.2	77.1	75.8	72.1	70.7	69.5	68.9	69.1	69.4	69.4
513.7	514.6	512.9	512.6	513.5	514.4	514.7	515.1	516.1	514.0	513.4	515.7	516.4	516.1	509.9	508.5	510.1	511.9	513.3	514.3	514.7
51.6	51.7	51.6	51.6	51.8	52.0	52.3	52.3	52.4	52.2	52.1	52.1	52.0	52.0	51.5	51.2	51.2	51.2	51.5	51.6	51.6
114.6	114.9	114.7	115.4	115.9	116.4	116.7	116.8	116.9	115.8	115.6	117.5	117.9	118.5	117.7	117.3	117.8	118.3	118.6	118.9	119.0
758.3	757.7	752.4	749.7	749.8	750.9	750.9	750.8	751.3	748.1	745.7	747.3	746.8	744.6	730.5	727.3	727.8	729.0	730.5	732.5	732.6
691.8	691.8	687.8	686.4	686.9	688.3	688.5	688.6	689.1	686.3	684.4	686.4	686.2	684.8	673.0	670.7	671.3	672.1	672.9	674.3	674.4
66.5	65.9	64.6	63.3	62.8	62.7	62.4	62.2	62.1	61.8	61.3	61.0	60.5	59.8	57.6	56.6	56.6	56.9	57.6	58.2	58.2
92.1	92.3	92.2	86.4	86.3	86.0	88.4	88.0	88.1	87.8	88.3	88.9	88.8	88.8	88.5	93.5	93.8	94.1	96.4	96.5	96.6
94.6	95.4	96.7	99.6	99.8	98.9	99.3	98.4	98.2	98.4	99.0	97.9	102.7	103.8	110.0	115.1	115.6	113.9	111.6	108.6	107.1
46.3	46.5	46.5	47.2	47.0	46.6	47.0	46.7	46.8	47.5	48.1	47.7	49.8	49.5	51.2	53.2	53.2	52.4	51.8	50.7	50.2
15.5	15.1	14.8	15.0	14.7	14.3	14.1	13.4	13.0	12.6	12.5	12.2	15.7	15.1	14.4	14.7	14.7	14.1	13.4	12.5	11.9
27.8	28.3	28.7	29.5	29.7	29.7	30.1	30.3	30.5	30.9	31.1	31.3	31.7	33.0	38.9	40.2	40.2	39.9	39.4	39.1	38.8
36.1	36.4	37.2	38.3	38.4	37.9	37.6	37.1	36.7	36.4	36.6	36.7	37.2	37.5	39.9	41.6	41.9	41.2	40.1	39.1	38.4
32.5	33.3	34.4	36.9	37.9	39.4	40.6	41.8	42.9	43.2	44.1	44.6	46.7	47.5	47.4	48.6	49.0	48.7	48.8	48.6	48.5
30.8	30.3	31.2	32.2	31.7	30.9	29.9	29.2	28.9	29.0	29.4	29.4	28.2	29.7	31.2	39.2	40.2	39.8	37.5	36.4	35.3
10.0	10.1	10.3	10.6	10.7	10.6	10.6	10.5	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	10.9	11.1	11.8	12.3	12.3	12.2	12.2	12.2	12.2
9.1	9.3	9.6	10.0	10.1	10.0	10.0	9.9	9.8	9.8	9.8	9.7	10.1	10.4	11.4	12.0	12.0	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9
11.1	11.2	11.2	11.4	11.3	11.2	11.3	11.2	11.3	11.5	11.6	11.5	12.0	11.9	12.4	12.7	12.7	12.5	12.5	12.5	12.5
6.2	0.9	1.2	2.9	0.2	-0.9	0.4	-0.9	-0.2	0.2	0.6	-1.1	4.8	1.1	6.2	5.1	0.5	-1.7	-2.4	-2.9	-1.6
5.9	1.3	0.9	1.0	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.8	1.4	6.3	1.4	0.9	1.3	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.7
8.5	7.9	6.8	8.6	5.4	5.8	5.7	5.5	5.4	6.1	5.7	6.7	7.1	8.2	13.2	11.8	6.0	6.6	5.4	5.6	5.7
4.4	4.8	3.9	5.0	4.0	5.1	3.9	4.7	4.2	4.8	4.0	6.8	4.8	4.9	4.7	5.8	4.9	6.8	6.0	6.3	4.9
3.8	3.6	2.5	1.7	2.0	2.6	2.4	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.8	2.4	3.8	3.6	3.3	2.2	1.6	2.4	2.5	3.0	3.0
15.7	11.7	11.6	12.7	11.7	13.5	14.5	13.7	16.1	15.2	14.9	15.8	17.4	14.7	14.3	15.2	14.3	16.0	15.7	17.8	19.3
78.2	80.1	77.7	77.2	79.9	79.7	82.2	81.8	79.8	81.1	83.0	82.6	81.4	80.4	78.1	80.9	81.7	81.8	81.5	82.1	79.3
48.9	47.2	45.8	44.8	44.2	43.3	42.9	42.1	41.4	40.7	40.8	40.7	40.2	39.4	38.5	38.3	38.1	37.7	37.4	34.6	34.5
8.6	8.4	8.3	8.3	8.2	8.2	8.1	8.1	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	7.9	8.0	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	3.7	3.7
11.9	8.9	7.6	8.9	7.0	7.7	8.9	7.8	8.4	8.2	6.6	13.0	10.9	8.8	7.8	10.0	7.6	9.6	9.4	9.2	8.7
WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009				
				Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	3	4	5	6	7
GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Activity - Total	8.3	3.4	3.9	4.6	2.3	1.7	3.7	4.3	4.2	3.3	3.1	2.0	5.3	5.1	4.1	4.7	3.8
A Agriculture, forestry and fishing	9.1	-0.2	5.8	1.6	-0.5	-2.9	3.3	5.2	7.4	6.9	7.1	4.2	6.1	2.0	-1.8	4.7	-0.4
B Mining and quarrying	13.4	0.9	4.0	2.4	1.6	-4.9	3.4	4.7	1.9	6.0	3.6	0.3	1.7	4.3	-5.9	9.4	2.3
C Manufacturing	7.5	0.8	9.0	-0.5	0.4	3.7	10.1	10.0	8.7	6.8	5.4	3.6	0.4	-0.4	-1.3	0.1	0.1
D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply	9.5	3.8	3.7	7.8	5.1	-3.2	4.7	2.4	3.6	4.4	1.6	5.2	8.1	7.6	5.5	10.3	5.6
E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities	7.8	2.0	2.2	3.2	1.2	0.1	2.7	3.0	2.0	1.3	-0.1	1.5	4.6	3.5	1.0	5.2	1.6
F Constrution	7.5	1.0	4.4	1.0	1.6	0.9	2.9	5.8	4.1	5.2	5.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	-0.9	3.4	2.9
G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles	7.7	1.9	3.7	2.3	1.2	0.1	2.6	4.1	4.3	3.9	3.2	2.6	3.6	1.5	2.9	2.4	1.6
H Transportation and storage	8.4	0.7	2.0	2.1	0.5	-1.4	1.1	1.2	2.5	3.1	2.3	3.0	0.6	2.9	2.2	1.1	2.0
I Accommodation and food service activities	8.3	1.6	4.0	1.7	0.6	1.0	2.8	4.2	4.5	4.5	4.7	2.4	3.2	3.4	0.4	1.3	1.4
J Information and communication	7.3	1.4	2.6	3.1	0.8	-1.6	1.0	2.5	3.4	3.5	1.0	1.2	2.5	3.4	2.5	3.4	2.5
K Financial and insurance activities	6.0	-0.7	1.0	-3.8	0.3	-0.5	1.2	3.2	2.6	-2.6	2.3	2.4	1.7	-4.2	-5.4	-1.6	2.0
L Real estate activities	6.0	1.9	3.0	0.0	1.8	4.5	2.6	5.3	2.9	1.0	4.1	2.9	0.6	1.3	-0.6	-0.5	1.9
M Professional, scientific and technical activities	8.4	2.1	1.6	3.3	1.5	0.0	1.6	1.8	2.3	0.7	0.4	0.2	4.7	4.6	2.2	3.3	2.0
N Administrative and support service activities	9.6	1.8	4.1	2.1	-0.2	-0.6	2.5	4.3	4.6	4.8	4.3	3.2	5.5	3.2	1.6	1.4	0.0
O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security	12.2	5.9	-0.6	9.8	2.5	0.5	-1.9	-1.1	0.4	0.3	1.2	0.6	10.7	11.0	10.0	8.4	5.3
P Education	7.0	3.6	0.6	6.1	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.6	0.7	-0.1	7.3	6.6	6.0	5.7	2.9
Q Human health and social work activities	12.0	12.0	-0.3	22.6	5.5	1.4	-0.4	-1.0	0.3	-0.3	-0.9	-0.8	20.0	26.5	22.2	19.3	16.0
R Arts, entertainment and recreation	5.3	3.9	0.5	5.7	2.2	0.9	0.7	1.4	1.2	-1.2	-0.2	-1.2	6.3	7.2	6.0	4.0	5.8
S Other service activities	8.2	1.3	4.2	1.0	0.7	0.0	3.2	4.9	5.5	3.3	2.7	1.5	4.3	0.8	1.0	1.2	0.9
																	
INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Effective exchange rate,1 nominal	0.5	0.4	-1.7	-0.3	0.3	1.8	-0.3	-1.9	-2.3	-2.2	-1.3	0.6	-0.1	-0.6	-0.3	0.1	-0.1
Real (relative consumer prices)	2.8	0.7	-1.4	0.0	0.2	2.3	-0.3	-1.3	-1.7	-2.3	-1.9	-0.3	0.8	-0.2	0.1	0.3	-0.4
Real (relative producer prices)2	0.8	2.9	-2.8	3.4	3.7	1.4	-2.4	-3.3	-2.9	-2.8	-2.1	-0.7	3.5	2.9	3.2	4.0	4.1
USD/EUR	1.471	1.393	1.327	1.362	1.431	1.478	1.384	1.273	1.291	1.359	1.367	1.439	1.305	1.319	1.365	1.402	1.409
Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Relative to 17 trading partners; weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Industrial producer prices in manufacturing activities.																	
2009					2010												2011					
8	9	10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6
																						
0.7	2.4	1.7	1.3	2.1	2.2	3.6	5.2	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.0	5.1	3.6	2.7	4.1	3.1	3.3	4.3	1.7	1.4	2.8	2.0
-0.3	-0.7	-5.5	-0.9	-2.5	1.1	3.0	5.7	5.6	4.3	5.6	7.1	8.6	6.6	5.6	5.9	9.3	7.7	8.0	5.7	2.5	6.8	3.4
6.2	-3.5	-20.3	16.1	-8.7	2.0	3.5	4.7	1.4	14.0	-0.8	0.8	1.8	3.1	-0.4	0.8	18.6	3.4	0.4	6.8	9.0	-5.8	-1.4
-0.6	1.6	1.9	4.6	4.3	6.7	8.3	15.2	10.7	10.1	9.4	8.1	11.0	7.0	5.1	8.3	6.8	5.6	10.1	1.0	1.9	5.2	3.8
2.9	6.7	-10.4	-8.6	12.1	3.5	6.6	4.3	3.3	0.8	3.0	1.6	6.5	2.7	-3.4	13.0	1.6	-0.2	1.2	3.7	1.6	7.2	6.8
1.2	0.9	-3.3	2.1	1.1	0.0	3.0	5.1	3.5	3.6	2.0	1.6	2.9	1.5	-1.2	3.3	1.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.2	-1.1	3.4	2.3
0.6	1.4	-1.4	1.1	2.9	1.0	2.9	4.6	7.2	5.8	4.5	2.1	6.5	3.8	5.6	5.6	4.4	6.1	6.4	4.2	-0.5	1.6	3.4
1.5	0.6	0.4	-0.8	0.6	0.3	2.4	5.2	4.2	4.0	4.1	4.0	4.5	4.3	4.2	4.5	2.9	3.8	4.3	1.5	2.2	2.4	3.3
-4.8	4.4	-1.0	-3.3	0.5	-1.5	1.8	3.2	1.5	1.6	0.5	1.8	3.4	2.3	2.6	4.0	2.7	2.7	3.4	0.8	1.5	2.0	5.4
0.6	-0.2	-0.3	3.2	0.0	2.2	1.8	4.4	3.7	4.2	4.6	4.0	4.1	5.5	5.1	4.1	4.3	5.1	5.6	3.5	2.8	1.7	2.6
0.0	0.0	0.7	-3.6	-1.6	0.0	1.6	1.5	2.3	3.1	2.1	2.9	4.3	3.1	1.1	5.9	3.3	2.1	1.4	-0.6	1.2	1.7	0.5
0.5	-1.7	6.3	-1.8	-5.1	1.0	1.6	1.1	2.5	-0.6	7.6	5.0	1.2	1.5	-4.1	-4.6	1.4	5.2	1.6	0.3	2.6	9.0	-4.0
1.4	2.0	4.2	5.3	4.0	1.8	3.3	2.7	3.7	3.9	8.4	4.1	3.1	1.5	0.8	2.3	-0.4	3.0	2.9	6.5	2.2	4.4	2.3
1.1	1.3	0.4	0.6	-0.9	1.0	1.7	2.0	1.8	1.5	2.1	1.7	3.9	1.3	-0.2	1.4	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.9	-0.3
-0.1	-0.4	-1.0	-1.8	1.1	-1.2	4.1	4.7	5.1	4.1	3.9	3.8	5.3	4.6	5.5	5.7	3.1	5.3	4.5	3.0	2.9	2.8	3.8
-0.3	2.6	1.1	-2.0	2.4	-1.1	-1.5	-3.0	-2.1	-0.6	-0.5	0.9	-0.1	0.3	1.3	0.6	-0.9	0.5	1.0	2.2	0.6	0.7	0.6
-1.7	2.6	1.8	0.0	-0.1	0.5	0.5	-0.4	0.2	1.0	1.0	0.7	1.2	1.2	0.6	1.2	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.3	-0.2	-0.3
0.4	1.7	2.4	0.8	1.0	-1.6	1.2	-0.6	-2.3	-0.2	-0.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.3	0.0	-1.2	-1.4	-0.7	-0.5	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6
0.1	1.1	3.2	-0.5	-0.1	0.5	0.6	1.0	2.1	1.3	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.5	-2.2	0.0	-1.5	-0.6	-0.3	0.3	-1.6	-2.1	0.1
0.8	0.3	-0.4	-0.4	0.6	3.4	2.2	4.1	6.1	3.9	4.7	6.0	5.9	4.5	5.4	3.7	1.0	2.5	3.8	1.7	0.0	2.4	2.0
																						
																						
0.2	0.9	2.2	2.3	0.9	0.4	-0.3	-1.1	-1.1	-1.9	-2.7	-2.1	-2.3	-2.5	-2.0	-2.2	-2.5	-2.1	-1.2	-0.6	0.1	0.5	1.1
0.2	0.9	2.1	3.3	1.5	0.5	-0.1	-1.1	-0.4	-1.4	-2.2	-1.6	-1.4	-2.0	-1.8	-2.5	-2.5	-2.4	-2.2	-1.2	-0.8	0.0	-0.2
3.1	3.8	3.9	1.6	-1.0	-1.9	-2.1	-3.2	-3.8	-2.9	-3.2	-2.9	-2.5	-3.2	-2.8	-2.4	-3.2	-2.7	-2.0	-1.6	-0.7	-1.1	-0.3
1.427	1.456	1.482	1.491	1.461	1.427	1.369	1.357	1.341	1.257	1.221	1.277	1.2894	1.3067	1.390	1.366	1.322	1.336	1.365	1.400	1.444	1.435	1.439
PRICES	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009				
				Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	5	6	7	8	9
CPI, y-o-y growth rates, %	5.7	0.9	1.8	0.7	-0.2	1.1	1.4	2.1	2.1	1.7	1.7	1.7	0.7	0.3	-0.6	0.0	-0.1
Food, non-alcoholic beverages	10.1	0.6	1.0	0.9	-0.7	-1.0	-1.4	0.7	2.6	2.0	3.9	5.0	0.6	0.0	-1.3	-0.4	-0.4
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco	3.2	6.7	7.2	7.2	8.5	7.9	7.1	6.5	7.3	8.1	8.1	6.3	8.4	9.0	9.1	8.6	7.7
Clothing and footwear	4.4	-0.6	-1.9	1.2	-2.2	-3.0	-5.0	-1.9	-0.6	-0.4	-0.7	-2.4	1.9	1.1	-1.3	-1.7	-3.6
Housing, water, electricity, gas	9.7	-0.3	10.2	-2.1	-3.5	3.0	8.3	11.3	12.0	9.0	6.8	5.4	-2.3	-4.0	-4.9	-3.5	-2.2
Furnishings, household equipment	5.8	4.0	1.4	4.5	3.5	1.9	1.3	0.8	1.3	2.1	2.7	3.9	4.2	4.5	4.0	4.0	2.5
Medical, pharmaceutical products	2.9	4.0	2.1	5.3	1.4	0.7	-0.6	0.6	4.0	4.6	2.9	2.6	5.5	5.1	1.9	1.6	0.7
Transport	1.9	-3.0	-0.3	-4.5	-4.1	0.6	1.2	-0.1	-1.8	-0.5	0.8	0.5	-4.7	-5.2	-5.6	-3.5	-3.1
Communications	0.6	-4.1	1.4	-4.7	-4.3	-3.2	0.0	1.4	1.3	2.8	2.7	1.6	-4.4	-4.4	-4.1	-4.2	-4.6
Recreation and culture	4.4	3.0	0.4	3.6	2.8	2.5	1.2	0.4	-0.2	0.1	-2.6	-1.0	3.6	4.1	3.0	2.7	2.7
Education	5.2	3.4	1.6	3.0	2.7	2.7	2.0	1.9	1.6	0.8	1.7	1.6	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.2
Catering services	9.6	4.4	-2.5	4.9	4.0	2.7	1.9	1.9	-2.9	-11.0	-11.0	-10.9	4.8	4.7	4.4	4.2	3.3
Miscellaneous goods & services	3.9	3.8	1.4	3.3	4.4	3.9	2.3	2.0	0.5	0.7	1.4	2.3	3.1	3.5	4.5	4.4	4.3
HCPI	5.5	0.9	2.1	0.6	-0.2	1.4	1.7	2.4	2.3	2.0	2.2	2.0	0.5	0.2	-0.6	0.1	0.0
Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy)	4.6	1.9	0.3	2.6	1.2	0.7	0.0	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	1.1	2.6	2.6	1.4	1.3	0.9
PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Total	3.8	-1.3	2.1	-1.5	-3.1	-1.8	-1.0	2.3	3.4	3.8	5.7	4.8	-1.6	-2.4	-3.0	-3.3	-2.8
Domestic market	5.6	-0.4	2.0	-0.4	-1.5	-1.1	0.2	2.0	2.8	3.2	4.5	4.1	-0.7	-0.7	-1.3	-1.7	-1.6
Non-domestic market	2.2	-2.2	2.2	-2.6	-4.5	-2.5	-2.1	2.6	4.0	4.4	6.9	5.5	-2.5	-4.0	-4.7	-4.9	-4.0
euro area	2.2	-3.5	2.2	-4.5	-6.0	-3.0	-2.4	2.5	4.0	4.8	8.2	6.5	-4.1	-6.2	-6.7	-6.4	-4.8
non-euro area	2.1	0.3	2.1	1.1	-1.7	-1.6	-1.6	2.7	3.8	3.5	4.0	3.1	0.5	0.2	-0.6	-2.0	-2.4
Import price indices	1.3	-3.3	7.4	-4.6	-4.7	-1.8	4.0	8.8	7.8	8.9	8.9	5.5	-4.8	-5.2	-4.7	-5.0	-4.5
PRICE CONTROL,' y-o-y growth rates, %																	
Energy prices	12.4	-12.3	16.5	-17.7	-17.3	0.4	16.1	18.8	15.9	15.3	15.1	9.9	-18.0	-20.1	-21.5	-16.3	-13.9
Oil products	11.7	-12.0	17.3	-18.9	-15.9	6.2	21.9	20.3	13.5	14.6	15.7	10.5	-19.4	-21.2	-20.9	-14.8	-11.5
Basic utilities	0.6	3.6	-	0.9	0.8	10.8	-	-	-				0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
Transport & communications	-0.4	0.6	1.8	-1.1	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.7	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	-1.1	-1.1	2.5	2.5	2.5
Other controlled prices	1.8	4.9	1.3	6.8	5.6	4.9	4.9	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	7.1	7.1	7.1	4.9	4.9
Direct control - total	8.6	-6.9	14.2	-10.9	-10.9	2.9	14.1	16.1	14.4	12.2	7.2	1.5	-11.2	-12.9	-13.7	-10.2	-8.6
Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control..																	
2009			2010												2011						
10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
0.0	1.6	1.8	1.5	1.3	1.4	2.3	2.1	1.9	2.1	2.3	2.0	1.9	1.4	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.9	1.7	2.2	1.3	0.9
-1.2	-0.8	-1.1	-2.4	-1.2	-0.7	-0.1	0.4	1.7	2.8	2.9	2.2	1.9	1.9	2.2	3.7	4.1	3.9	4.2	6.3	4.6	2.9
7.7	8.1	8.0	7.9	7.6	5.9	9.9	5.1	4.5	5.2	8.2	8.5	8.2	8.0	8.1	7.8	8.3	8.3	6.3	6.4	6.2	5.4
-2.7	-2.8	-3.4	-5.9	-5.7	-3.6	-0.9	-2.4	-2.3	-2.1	-1.7	1.9	-1.1	0.0	-0.1	0.1	-0.1	-2.1	-2.8	-1.5	-3.0	-4.2
-1.7	4.5	6.3	7.6	8.4	8.9	10.7	11.6	11.7	12.4	12.3	11.4	11.7	7.1	8.3	7.4	6.6	6.5	6.3	5.9	3.9	4.4
2.1	2.2	1.5	1.8	1.6	0.6	1.0	0.7	0.8	0.5	1.3	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.6	2.4	2.5	3.3	3.5	4.2	3.9	3.5
0.6	1.3	0.3	-0.3	-0.7	-0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	2.8	4.0	5.2	5.1	4.4	4.3	3.2	3.0	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.8	1.0
-2.8	1.9	2.9	2.3	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.4	-1.5	-1.2	-2.0	-2.1	-0.6	-1.2	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1
-3.7	-4.0	-1.9	-0.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.5	1.6	-0.3	0.7	3.5	2.5	2.8	3.2	1.4	3.3	3.3	2.3	1.9	0.5	3.4
3.1	2.7	1.7	1.7	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.6	-0.2	-0.6	-0.3	0.3	0.1	-0.1	0.4	-0.9	-6.5	-0.4	-0.5	-1.1	-1.3	-1.8
2.7	2.6	2.6	2.4	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	1.3	0.7	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.6
3.1	2.3	2.6	2.0	1.8	2.0	1.9	2.1	1.7	1.3	1.2	-11.2	-10.9	-11.0	-11.1	-11.1	-11.1	-10.9	-11.2	-10.9	-10.5	-10.2
4.2	4.1	3.6	3.3	2.3	1.3	1.8	2.1	2.0	0.7	0.4	0.4	0.9	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.2	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.2	2.2
0.2	1.8	2.1	1.8	1.6	1.8	2.7	2.4	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.1	2.1	1.6	2.2	2.3	2.0	2.4	2.0	2.4	1.6	1.1
0.7	1.0	0.3	0.1	-0.1	0.0	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.4	0.2	1.0	1.0	1.3	1.1	1.0
																					
-2.4	-1.9	-1.2	-1.4	-1.2	-0.2	1.0	2.9	3.0	3.4	3.5	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.2	5.2	5.9	6.0	5.7	4.2	4.4	4.1
-1.4	-1.1	-0.7	-0.1	0.1	0.5	0.7	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.9	2.8	3.1	3.2	3.5	4.0	4.8	4.8	5.0	3.6	3.7	3.7
-3.2	-2.6	-1.7	-2.8	-2.5	-0.9	1.3	3.2	3.3	4.2	4.1	3.6	3.9	4.5	4.9	6.4	7.1	7.2	6.4	4.9	5.1	4.6
-3.9	-2.8	-2.3	-3.0	-3.1	-1.0	1.3	3.2	3.1	4.5	4.1	3.4	4.1	4.8	5.6	7.5	8.6	8.6	7.9	5.8	5.8	4.8
-1.9	-2.3	-0.6	-2.4	-1.5	-0.8	1.4	3.2	3.6	3.4	4.1	4.0	3.2	3.6	3.6	4.0	3.6	4.2	3.0	2.8	3.6	4.1
-3.7	-2.1	0.4	3.3	3.2	5.4	8.3	9.4	8.7	7.6	7.9	7.7	7.6	8.9	10.3	10.4	8.5	7.9	6.3	5.4	5.0	4.5
																					
-12.6	3.8	13.0	16.9	13.9	17.5	20.1	20.5	15.8	17.4	15.6	14.6	18.2	12.2	15.7	15.5	15.6	14.3	12.0	9.7	7.9	6.3
-9.4	10.3	21.9	24.4	18.6	22.8	22.7	22.8	15.6	15.2	13.2	12.1	16.6	11.6	15.6	15.8	16.3	15.2	12.7	10.2	8.7	7.7
0.8	16.3	15.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.7	2.7	2.7	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1
4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	1.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
-7.6	6.0	11.8	14.6	12.6	15.2	16.7	17.2	14.4	15.5	14.3	13.5	15.9	9.2	11.8	11.8	5.4	4.5	3.0	1.5	0.1	-1.0
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009			
				Q^ Q3 1 Q4			Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4				Q1 1 Q2		6 7 8 9			
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m																
Current account	-2,574	-456	-297	78	-268	-10	-4	-118	-84	-91	-49	117	26	-97	-162	-10
Goods1	-2,648	-703	-1,205	-30	-230	-287	-190	-273	-234	-508	-302	-177	45	-51	-162	-17
Exports	20,032	16,167	18,386	4,064	3,950	4,219	4,205	4,695	4,640	4,847	5,024	5,323	1,427	1,401	1,065	1,484
Imports	22,680	16,870	19,591	4,094	4,180	4,506	4,394	4,968	4,874	5,355	5,325	5,499	1,383	1,452	1,227	1,501
Services	1,424	1,165	1,308	321	258	303	291	356	346	315	353	408	81	46	99	114
Exports	4,957	4,347	4,633	1,057	1,222	1,104	981	1,129	1,348	1,176	1,084	1,204	342	415	415	392
Imports	3,533	3,182	3,325	736	964	800	690	773	1,001	861	731	796	262	369	317	278
Income	-1,062	-766	-507	-198	-235	-107	-51	-158	-202	-95	-147	-154	-69	-94	-64	-78
Receipts	1,262	666	682	176	137	221	135	194	168	185	213	224	69	51	43	43
Expenditure	2,324	1,432	1,188	374	372	328	186	353	370	280	360	378	138	144	107	121
Current transfers	-287	-152	106	-15	-61	81	-53	-43	6	196	47	40	-31	3	-34	-29
Receipts	887	966	1,218	268	177	377	263	220	274	461	374	314	70	80	53	44
Expenditure	1,174	1,118	1,112	283	238	296	317	263	268	265	328	275	101	77	88	73
Capital and financial account	2,605	154	319	-71	211	80	-19	253	190	-106	96	36	-160	115	-56	152
Capital account	-25	-9	8	41	-4	-42	46	3	16	-56	-7	-6	45	-3	-2	1
Financial account	2,631	164	311	-112	215	121	-65	251	174	-50	103	42	-204	117	-54	151
Direct investment	346	-644	334	-449	-36	-86	-132	74	57	335	82	263	-72	-56	33	-13
Domestic abroad	-983	-174	60	-274	22	-20	-51	59	19	32	4	45	-3	21	20	-19
Foreign in Slovenia	1,329	-470	274	-176	-58	-66	-81	15	37	303	78	217	-69	-76	13	5
Portfolio investment	572	4,628	1,947	1,151	2,293	310	1,106	508	-54	388	2,584	-58	-118	864	-216	1,644
Financial derivatives	46	-2	-117	12	12	-2	-22	-65	-14	-15	-80	0	-1	-2	6	8
Other investment	1,645	-3,985	-1,872	-870	-2,041	-120	-1,077	-216	167	-746	-2,492	-174	-1	-636	94	-1,499
Assets	-333	-277	683	-149	-976	105	241	-594	531	504	-1,570	-182	743	-631	723	-1,068
Commercial credits	-142	416	-174	164	-35	226	-223	-213	30	232	-323	-97	-47	-2	84	-117
Loans	-325	-1	164	-77	-39	46	-348	510	20	-18	-100	-18	-66	-50	58	-46
Currency and deposits	130	-613	609	-239	-913	-68	815	-885	387	292	-1,152	-69	851	-578	576	-911
Other assets	4	-80	84	3	11	-99	-2	-6	94	-2	6	2	5	0	5	6
Liabilities	1,978	-3,708	-2,555	-721	-1,065	-226	-1,319	378	-364	-1,250	-922	8	-744	-5	-629	-431
Commercial credits	-73	-452	364	-102	24	-75	91	262	-63	73	208	-4	-25	22	-111	114
Loans	1,869	-2,911	-974	-1,325	-78	-973	-403	-189	-8	-373	-386	-287	-1,352	13	-29	-62
Deposits	190	-318	-1,934	700	-983	822	-1,079	358	-305	-909	-787	334	627	-10	-491	-482
Other liabilities	-7	-27	-11	6	-28	0	72	-54	12	-42	42	-36	5	-30	3	-2
International reserves2	21	167	19	46	-13	20	62	-50	18	-11	9	12	-11	-53	29	12
Statistical error	-31	302	-21	-7	58	-70	22	-135	-106	197	-47	-153	134	-18	218	-142
																
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m																
Export of investment goods	2,241	1,783	1,811	461	407	473	403	456	442	510	440	N/A.	149	147	110	150
Intermediate goods	10,760	8,090	9,951	1,996	2,025	2,093	2,235	2,542	2,544	2,630	2,843	N/A.	698	722	552	751
Consumer goods	6,808	6,144	6,481	1,568	1,482	1,620	1,533	1,663	1,620	1,664	1,702	N/A.	567	517	392	572
Import of investment goods	3,441	2,288	2,293	551	521	633	450	612	570	661	555	N/A.	175	170	154	197
Intermediate goods	13,735	9,823	12,117	2,335	2,458	2,649	2,711	3,064	3,032	3,311	3,436	N/A.	814	861	711	886
Consumer goods	5,870	5,004	5,470	1,262	1,255	1,292	1,290	1,355	1,351	1,475	1,378	N/A.	408	434	381	441
Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: "Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2Reserve assets of the BS.																
2009			2010												2011					
10 11 12			1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12												1 2 3 4 5 6					
																				
-37	99	-72	30	-112	78	-27	-87	-5	-21	-58	-6	-41	-57	7	-5	-93	49	33	-43	127
-50	-79	-158	-25	-121	-44	-99	-147	-27	-45	-122	-68	-155	-151	-202	-71	-115	-116	-92	-127	42
1,499	1,471	1,248	1,228	1,328	1,649	1,468	1,566	1,661	1,604	1,306	1,729	1,656	1,700	1,491	1,535	1,603	1,885	1,691	1,836	1,797
1,549	1,550	1,406	1,253	1,448	1,693	1,567	1,713	1,688	1,649	1,428	1,797	1,811	1,850	1,693	1,606	1,718	2,001	1,783	1,963	1,754
130	95	78	99	84	107	119	125	113	88	115	143	132	87	97	124	94	136	155	128	125
384	333	387	315	302	363	373	370	386	462	448	437	394	356	426	353	326	405	411	388	405
254	238	308	216	218	256	254	245	274	374	333	295	262	269	330	229	233	269	256	260	280
-62	18	-62	-17	-24	-11	-28	-39	-91	-90	-57	-56	-28	-36	-31	-55	-55	-37	-58	-46	-50
45	107	70	42	40	53	58	72	64	65	52	51	54	52	80	61	63	88	66	80	78
107	89	132	59	64	64	85	112	156	155	108	106	81	88	110	117	118	125	124	126	128
-55	65	70	-27	-52	26	-18	-25	0	25	6	-25	9	43	144	-2	-17	66	28	1	10
61	149	167	65	85	113	57	83	80	117	89	68	103	125	234	84	129	161	114	104	96
116	84	97	93	136	87	75	108	80	92	83	93	93	82	90	86	147	95	86	103	86
75	-50	54	5	35	-59	88	5	160	142	-40	88	59	-236	71	-141	57	180	26	-11	22
1	25	-67	-7	-2	55	2	-3	4	-8	-4	27	3	4	-63	-9	1	1	-2	0	-4
75	-75	121	12	37	-114	86	8	157	149	-36	61	56	-240	134	-132	56	179	28	-11	26
-30	-81	25	-37	-72	-23	-26	19	81	89	36	-68	74	213	47	-78	-12	172	88	99	76
-29	35	-26	16	-54	-14	-11	29	41	8	25	-14	-8	36	5	-54	22	36	-8	8	45
-2	-115	51	-54	-18	-9	-15	-11	41	80	11	-54	82	178	43	-24	-34	136	96	90	31
-14	-71	394	1,357	-446	195	609	-202	100	78	-29	-103	68	182	138	1,136	-207	1,655	-360	226	76
3	3	-7	-2	-2	-19	-11	-21	-33	-5	-4	-5	-8	-4	-4	-29	-31	-20	0	0	0
109	63	-292	-1,356	550	-271	-518	272	31	-9	-34	211	-97	-615	-34	-1,171	289	-1,610	287	-336	-125
213	-403	295	172	44	25	-24	-631	61	697	-203	37	-168	-624	1,296	-1,062	338	-845	68	-93	-157
-69	-32	327	0	-42	-182	-37	-88	-87	-6	195	-158	-102	-68	402	-223	28	-128	-82	30	-45
-1	35	13	-24	19	-343	415	25	70	127	18	-124	-33	-3	18	-51	5	-55	14	-16	-16
281	-407	59	203	62	551	-409	-554	78	568	-488	308	-20	-547	858	-779	311	-685	125	-104	-90
3	2	-104	-6	5	-1	7	-13	0	9	73	12	-13	-5	17	-9	-7	22	11	-3	-6
-105	465	-587	-1,528	506	-296	-494	902	-30	-705	168	173	71	8	-1,330	-109	-49	-765	219	-243	32
89	82	-246	-89	69	112	54	127	82	-30	-182	149	135	61	-123	-32	61	179	145	9	-158
-160	33	-846	-39	-18	-346	-279	328	-238	-40	-21	53	-240	242	-375	-109	-86	-190	-202	-226	142
-36	358	500	-1,394	448	-133	-206	455	109	-607	348	-46	180	-288	-801	3	-8	-781	274	-26	86
2	-8	5	-6	6	72	-63	-8	17	-28	23	17	-5	-7	-30	30	-15	27	2	0	-38
8	11	1	51	7	4	32	-60	-23	-3	-4	25	19	-16	-13	10	17	-18	13	1	-2
-38	-49	18	-35	77	-20	-62	82	-155	-121	97	-82	-18	293	-79	146	36	-229	-59	55	-149
																				
																				
167	154	151	116	120	167	142	155	158	159	125	159	164	170	176	126	142	172	154	180	N/A
782	730	581	657	725	853	803	856	883	878	713	952	920	927	783	889	904	1,050	973	1,034	N/A
540	578	502	445	473	615	513	543	607	554	458	607	558	591	515	510	544	648	549	602	N/A
218	208	207	122	149	180	213	218	180	179	148	243	188	226	247	148	173	234	181	217	N/A
913	937	799	794	906	1,010	956	1,068	1,040	1,039	888	1,106	1,153	1,128	1,030	1,032	1,105	1,299	1,123	1,222	N/A
447	433	413	362	395	533	430	462	463	452	420	479	496	536	443	422	451	504	472	527	N/A
MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES	2008	2009	2010	2009										2010
				3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12										1
SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m														
Claims of the BS on central government	68	160	138	103	121	140	142	151	167	166	161	161	160	176
Central government (S. 1311)	2,162	3,497	3,419	3,134	3,288	3,542	3,472	3,456	3,427	3,610	3,625	3,581	3,497	3,334
Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314)	212	376	526	233	243	254	251	257	262	281	305	336	376	390
Households (S. 14, 15)	7,827	8,413	9,282	7,868	7,910	7,946	7,951	8,055	8,135	8,231	8,295	8,345	8,413	8,452
Non-financial corporations (S. 11)	21,149	21,704	21,648	21,469	21,509	21,516	21,517	21,557	21,671	21,704	21,688	21,645	21,704	21,792
Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125)	2,815	2,680	2,496	2,851	2,869	2,838	2,835	2,838	2,868	2,846	2,846	2,772	2,680	2,684
Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122)	3,666	5,302	5,812	3,786	3,829	4,008	4,365	4,382	4,334	4,723	4,563	4,589	5,302	6,141
Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL														
In domestic currency	32,113	34,731	35,994	32,648	32,790	33,140	33,353	33,601	33,628	34,045	33,922	33,962	34,731	35,678
In foreign currency	2,370	1,895	1,843	2,190	2,172	2,122	2,059	2,017	2,003	1,969	1,939	1,919	1,895	1,904
Securities, total	3,346	5,345	5,345	4,504	4,686	4,843	4,979	4,925	5,067	5,380	5,460	5,386	5,345	5,211
SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l								in EUR m						
Deposits in domestic currency, total	23,129	27,965	26,767	24,334	25,649	26,021	26,576	26,207	25,956	26,950	26,861	26,932	27,965	28,953
Overnight	6,605	7,200	8,155	6,609	6,610	6,876	7,163	6,862	7,011	7,079	6,940	7,028	7,200	7,949
With agreed maturity -short-term	10,971	10,408	8,193	12,359	13,604	13,703	12,647	11,167	10,667	11,332	11,109	10,917	10,408	10,385
With agreed maturity -long-term	4,157	9,788	10,337	4,859	4,907	4,901	6,212	7,630	7,749	8,000	8,257	8,396	9,788	10,042
Short-term deposits redeemable at notice	1,396	569	82	507	528	541	554	548	529	539	555	591	569	577
Deposits in foreign currency, total	490	434	463	492	488	495	492	480	463	463	458	453	434	426
Overnight	215	238	285	233	231	251	249	239	240	244	242	261	238	240
With agreed maturity -short-term	198	141	121	211	209	197	199	195	178	171	169	142	141	133
With agreed maturity -long-term	41	45	55	42	42	41	39	39	38	43	42	43	45	48
Short-term deposits redeemable at notice	36	10	2	6	6	6	5	7	7	5	5	7	10	5
INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, %														
New deposits in domestic currency														
Households														
Overnight deposits	0.46	0.28	0.21	0.34	0.28	0.25	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.22
Time deposits with maturity of up to one year	4.30	2.51	1.82	2.82	2.44	2.28	2.40	2.35	2.27	2.14	2.04	1.97	2.00	1.91
New loans to households in domestic currency														
Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate	6.77	6.43	5.53	5.75	6.75	6.37	6.59	6.74	6.57	6.64	6.74	5.00	6.28	6.11
New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency														
Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate	6.62	6.28	5.75	6.34	6.05	6.10	6.19	6.36	6.20	6.66	6.47	5.94	6.06	6.15
INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, %														
Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00														
INTERBANK INTEREST RATES														
EURIBOR														
3-month rates	4.63	1.23	0.81	1.64	1.42	1.28	1.23	0.98	0.86	0.77	0.74	0.72	0.71	0.68
6-month rates	4.72	1.44	1.08	1.78	1.61	1.48	1.44	1.21	1.12	1.04	1.02	0.99	1.00	0.98
LIBOR CHF														
3-month rates	2.58	0.37	0.19	0.44	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.30	0.27	0.25	0.25	0.25
6-month rates	2.69	0.50	0.27	0.58	0.54	0.54	0.52	0.49	0.45	0.41	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.34
Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association.														
2010											2011						
2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12											1|2|3|4|5|6|7						
																	
177	140	140	142	141	140	142	140	139	139	138	132	101	99	76	76	76	76
3,382	2,884	2,897	3,001	3,120	3,130	3,326	3,422	3,447	3,453	3,419	3,332	3,326	3,409	3,319	3,327	3,282	3,276
395	390	392	395	401	415	421	417	434	497	526	538	536	541	532	530	533	534
8,480	8,601	8,647	8,701	8,897	8,928	9,062	9,119	9,149	9,225	9,282	9,226	9,233	9,276	9,304	9,383	9,425	9,507
21,896	21,950	22,062	21,997	22,015	22,022	21,815	21,862	21,848	21,790	21,648	21,793	21,775	21,772	21,782	21,714	21,725	21,656
2,669	2,620	2,606	2,558	2,525	2,524	2,502	2,488	2,496	2,497	2,496	2,454	2,402	2,372	2,350	2,341	2,325	2,323
5,093	5,057	5,555	5,638	6,120	5,445	5,315	5,399	5,079	5,688	5,812	5,674	5,740	6,504	5,179	5,275	5,259	5,224
																	
34,817	34,893	35,430	35,620	35,929	35,495	35,381	35,616	35,430	35,931	35,994	35,993	36,008	36,712	35,736	35,811	35,836	35,720
1,894	1,887	1,859	1,852	1,915	1,860	1,884	1,828	1,742	1,777	1,843	1,760	1,739	1,691	1,689	1,751	1,724	1,794
5,204	4,723	4,871	4,819	5,234	5,112	5,175	5,263	5,282	5,444	5,345	5,265	5,266	5,470	5,043	5,008	4,990	5,007
																	
28,198	27,716	27,949	28,085	27929	27,079	27,358	26,819	26,696	27,486	26,767	27,630	27,235	28,129	27,080	27,205	27,384	27,391
7,139	7,396	7,351	7,732	7976	7,936	8,041	8,031	7,926	8,119	8,155	8,245	8,179	8,799	8,206	8,237	8,259	8,303
10,137	9,233	9,006	8,674	8377	8,574	8,621	8,096	8,100	8,256	8,193	8,816	8,483	8,724	8,477	8,614	8,618	8,473
10,390	10,583	11,067	11,196	11401	10,413	10,529	10,532	10,587	11,003	10,337	10,496	10,550	10,583	10,375	10,324	10,467	10,564
532	504	525	483	175	156	167	160	83	108	82	73	23	23	22	30	40	51
438	436	450	496	705	462	491	462	456	471	463	452	453	449	444	459	464	488
241	250	270	299	513	280	307	277	286	291	285	282	287	284	286	295	304	317
137	127	121	130	129	122	121	125	113	118	121	115	116	113	107	111	107	113
52	55	55	59	61	58	60	57	55	59	55	53	49	51	50	52	52	57
8	4	4	8	2	2	3	3	2	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
																	
																	
																	
0.22	0.22	0.22	0.21	0.22	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.23
1.75	1.69	1.66	1.72	1.83	1.87	1.82	1.85	1.86	1.88	1.94	2.04	1.98	2.04	2.08	2.15	2.20	2.20
																	
6.08	5.33	5.80	5.38	5.42	5.12	5.33	5.17	5.50	5.43	5.65	5.85	5.17	5.45	5.51	5.42	5.52	5.39
																	
6.31	5.64	5.98	6.03	5.61	5.40	5.84	4.98	5.72	6.00	5.44	5.83	5.45	5.4	5.25	5.82	5.97	6.17
																	
1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.50																	
																	
																	
0.66	0.64	0.64	0.69	0.73	0.85	0.90	0.88	1.00	1.04	1.02	1.02	1.09	1.18	1.32	1.42	1.49	1.60
0.97	0.95	0.96	0.98	1.01	1.10	1.15	1.14	1.22	1.27	1.25	1.25	1.35	1.48	1.62	1.71	1.75	1.82
																	
0.25	0.25	0.24	0.19	0.10	0.13	0.16	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.17	0.18	0.18	0.18	0.18	
0.33	0.33	0.33	0.28	0.20	0.22	0.23	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.25	0.26	0.25	0.24	-
PUBLIC FINANCE	2008	2009	2010	2009			2010				2011		2009	
				Q^ Q3 1 Q4			Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4				Q1 1 Q2		11 1 12	
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m														
GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES														
TOTAL REVENUES	15,339.2	14,408.0	14,794.0	3,542.8	3,558.8	4,023.5	3,310.2	3,477.0	3,649.9	4,356.8	3,600.7	3,826.5	1,364.0	1,418.1
Current revenues	14,792.3	13,639.5	13,771.5	3,322.8	3,470.3	3,642.3	3,157.4	3,366.8	3,462.4	3,784.8	3,364.6	3,638.4	1,170.6	1,253.2
Tax revenues	13,937.4	12,955.4	12,848.4	3,164.5	3,279.0	3,453.0	2,983.4	3,189.2	3,186.0	3,489.9	3,155.9	3,451.0	1,113.3	1,175.5
Taxes on income and profit	3,442.2	2,805.1	2,490.7	617.5	735.5	744.8	635.5	594.4	554.5	706.4	635.4	827.7	232.4	278.2
Social security contributions	5,095.0	5,161.3	5,234.5	1,280.9	1,260.6	1,334.5	1,274.4	1,303.8	1,293.5	1,362.9	1,300.6	1,316.9	426.3	479.5
Taxes on payroll and workforce	258.0	28.5	28.1	7.2	6.2	7.7	6.3	7.2	6.5	8.1	6.7	7.6	2.5	2.9
Taxes on property	214.9	207.0	219.7	51.5	74.6	60.2	24.1	58.9	76.7	60.0	24.0	53.8	30.4	12.7
Domestic taxes on goods and services	4,805.3	4,660.2	4,780.7	1,177.5	1,184.2	1,283.1	1,023.9	1,199.2	1,231.6	1,325.9	1,165.5	1,217.4	413.3	395.8
Taxes on international trade & transactions	120.1	90.5	90.7	29.2	17.2	21.7	18.7	24.7	22.5	24.8	23.7	27.6	8.1	6.1
Other taxes	1.8	2.9	4.0	0.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	1.0	0.7	1.8	-0.1	-0.1	0.3	0.3
Non-tax revenues	854.9	684.1	923.0	158.4	191.3	189.3	174.1	177.6	276.5	294.9	208.7	187.5	57.3	77.7
Capital revenues	117.3	106.5	175.7	29.7	19.3	43.5	9.8	17.9	26.1	121.9	7.6	21.6	9.2	27.5
Grants	10.4	11.1	12.6	1.7	1.9	4.7	2.9	2.2	2.5	5.0	2.4	3.0	1.0	2.7
Transferred revenues	53.9	54.3	109.5	1.5	1.1	51.5	0.5	2.3	3.8	102.9	2.3	0.4	49.3	1.7
Receipts from the EU budget	365.4	596.5	724.7	186.9	66.2	281.5	139.6	87.8	155.1	342.2	223.9	163.2	133.9	133.1
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES														
TOTAL EXPENDITURES	15,441.7	16,368.2	16,692.7	4,064.6	3,767.1	4,659.5	4,035.1	4,122.7	3,948.1	4,586.9	4,190.7	4,159.0	1,443.7	1,813.4
Current expenditures	6,557.5	6,800.8	6,960.4	1,682.7	1,578.1	1,771.3	1,795.2	1,757.3	1,636.9	1,771.0	1,898.2	1,742.4	542.0	672.1
Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures	3,578.9	3,911.9	3,912.4	1,005.6	955.4	985.9	956.4	1,012.5	963.6	980.0	966.5	1,010.0	323.6	336.9
Expenditures on goods and services	2,527.5	2,510.3	2,512.4	618.0	603.9	741.4	556.8	624.9	587.7	743.1	585.5	616.2	213.8	321.5
Interest payments	335.2	336.1	488.2	48.4	12.0	29.0	272.6	110.0	76.4	29.2	311.3	108.1	1.7	5.8
Reserves	116.0	42.5	47.4	10.9	6.8	14.9	9.4	9.9	9.2	18.8	35.0	8.2	2.9	7.8
Current transfers	6,742.2	7,339.4	7,628.5	1,936.1	1,736.9	1,918.2	1,849.0	1,995.1	1,810.9	1,973.6	1,941.9	2,076.4	652.6	674.4
Subsidies	476.5	597.9	581.9	126.9	86.5	219.4	160.7	122.8	103.7	194.7	171.2	127.6	97.7	83.4
Current transfers to individuals and households	5,619.2	6,024.5	6,277.7	1,614.8	1,475.9	1,497.6	1,529.0	1,671.1	1,514.7	1,562.9	1,606.1	1,745.6	497.7	508.3
Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers	598.3	678.1	728.8	178.5	164.5	195.1	150.6	188.6	183.3	206.3	161.0	186.2	55.7	80.3
Current transfers abroad	48.2	38.9	40.1	15.9	9.9	6.1	8.7	12.6	9.1	9.6	3.6	17.0	1.5	2.4
Capital expenditures	1,255.5	1,294.1	1,310.6	237.2	297.5	584.1	192.8	212.5	321.1	584.3	168.9	196.5	147.4	317.3
Capital transfers	458.6	494.6	396.4	112.9	86.0	259.9	47.5	90.1	82.0	176.9	42.4	73.1	68.2	109.4
Payments to the EU budget	427.9	439.3	396.8	95.6	68.7	126.1	150.6	67.8	97.3	81.1	139.3	70.6	33.4	40.3
SURPLUS / DEFICIT	-102.5	-1,960.2	-1,886.4	-						-	-		-	-
Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64.														
2010												2011					
1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12												1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6					
																	
																	
1,076.9	1,164.2	1,069.1	1,083.1	1,146.4	1,247.5	1,183.6	1,286.2	1,180.1	1,188.3	1,461.5	1,707.1	1,205.5	1,118.2	1,277.0	1,256.2	1,269.1	1,301.1
1,047.8	1,116.0	993.6	1,062.1	1,113.2	1,191.5	1,110.0	1,232.7	1,119.7	1,132.5	1,263.8	1,388.4	1,147.1	1,045.0	1,172.5	1,185.3	1,208.5	1,244.7
994.1	1,053.8	935.4	1,000.9	1,057.0	1,131.4	1,027.0	1,103.3	1,055.6	1,073.1	1,189.1	1,227.7	1,094.8	950.0	1,111.1	1,131.8	1,141.3	1,177.8
224.3	219.9	191.3	108.0	210.0	276.4	114.1	226.9	213.4	218.8	219.0	268.6	215.1	208.1	212.1	294.5	237.9	295.4
424.0	414.6	435.7	437.4	431.5	434.8	432.7	428.8	432.0	434.9	436.4	491.6	437.7	424.6	438.4	438.3	439.6	439.0
2.1	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.2	2.5	2.6	1.9	2.0	2.6	2.4	3.1	2.3	2.1	2.3	2.5	2.5	2.6
6.7	8.6	8.8	9.7	31.2	18.0	24.7	27.4	24.6	13.7	31.2	15.1	7.4	8.3	8.3	7.1	25.7	21.0
331.1	401.7	291.0	434.8	373.4	391.1	444.4	411.2	376.1	393.8	492.0	440.2	424.5	299.4	441.6	380.3	426.2	410.9
5.7	6.9	6.1	8.3	8.4	8.1	8.4	6.8	7.3	9.2	7.1	8.5	7.8	7.7	8.2	9.1	9.4	9.0
0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	1.2	0.5	0.0	-0.2	0.2	-0.1	0.0	0.0
53.8	62.1	58.2	61.2	56.2	60.1	83.0	129.4	64.1	59.5	74.7	160.8	52.3	95.0	61.4	53.5	67.2	66.8
2.3	2.7	4.9	7.3	5.3	5.3	9.4	13.5	3.3	7.3	31.1	83.5	2.0	2.7	2.8	10.9	3.3	7.3
0.2	0.2	2.5	0.8	1.0	0.3	1.1	1.0	0.5	1.2	1.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	1.1	1.0	1.1	0.8
0.0	0.2	0.3	0.9	0.6	0.8	2.0	0.9	0.9	0.5	100.9	1.5	1.5	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.1
26.5	45.1	67.9	12.0	26.3	49.5	61.2	38.1	55.8	46.7	63.7	231.8	54.1	70.0	99.8	58.9	56.0	48.2
																	
1,307.3	1,372.1	1,355.7	1,322.7	1,464.5	1,335.4	1,302.9	1,272.4	1,372.8	1,373.5	1,419.6	1,793.9	1,418.8	1,408.1	1,363.7	1,359.2	1,476.8	1,323.0
520.0	631.6	643.6	613.9	594.4	548.9	529.5	529.0	578.4	557.2	543.8	670.0	638.6	636.7	622.9	629.0	585.3	528.1
316.6	315.2	324.6	313.9	377.2	321.5	319.7	324.8	319.0	329.2	322.8	328.0	325.9	315.9	324.8	312.1	377.5	320.4
170.8	179.3	206.8	193.4	211.9	219.6	203.2	200.5	183.9	203.2	216.9	323.0	202.2	183.8	199.4	213.1	203.5	199.6
28.7	134.5	109.4	104.0	1.5	4.6	4.0	0.9	71.5	21.9	1.5	5.8	88.6	134.5	88.2	101.3	1.5	5.3
3.9	2.7	2.8	2.7	3.9	3.3	2.5	2.8	4.0	2.9	2.7	13.2	22.0	2.5	10.5	2.5	2.8	2.9
651.3	578.4	619.2	612.0	753.2	629.9	608.7	590.1	612.0	624.5	633.0	716.1	673.8	628.0	640.2	635.7	781.7	659.0
111.1	22.6	27.0	39.7	42.2	40.9	39.3	27.6	36.8	46.4	50.2	98.1	97.5	46.4	27.4	40.9	36.8	49.9
495.1	506.0	527.9	510.2	647.4	513.6	509.1	501.2	504.4	516.8	519.5	526.6	521.5	532.4	552.1	534.6	673.0	538.1
42.5	48.3	59.8	60.2	60.3	68.0	59.0	59.4	64.9	58.2	59.0	89.1	53.4	48.7	58.8	54.9	61.9	69.4
2.6	1.6	4.5	1.9	3.2	7.5	1.4	1.9	5.8	3.1	4.2	2.3	1.3	0.4	1.9	5.4	9.9	1.7
73.6	60.9	58.3	58.6	67.2	86.7	108.2	99.7	113.2	116.1	161.6	306.6	58.8	50.7	59.4	54.2	62.0	80.3
19.1	14.1	14.3	18.6	19.5	52.0	25.6	22.1	34.3	40.7	68.1	68.2	12.5	11.5	18.4	20.4	20.9	31.8
43.3	87.0	20.3	19.6	30.2	17.9	30.8	31.6	34.9	35.1	13.1	33.0	35.1	81.3	22.9	19.9	26.9	23.8
-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-		-	
Acronyms
Acronyms in the text
AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BIS - Bank of International Settlements, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EBA - European Banking Authority, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFCF - European Financial Stability Facility, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, ILO -International Labour Organization, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SMA - Securities Market Agency, SMARS - Surveying and mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.
Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA)
A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam andairconditioning supply, E-Watersupply sewerage, waste management andremediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies.
Acronyms of Countries
AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.
Slovenian economic mirror
july-august 2011, No. 7-8. Vol. XVII