95 Sodobni vojaški izzivi, september 2019 – 21/št. 3
Contemporary Military Challenges, September 2019 – 21/No. 3
NATO IN SLOVENIJA 15 LET POZNEJE: 
KAKO USPEŠNE SO BILE NAPOVEDI 
IZDATKOV ZA OBRAMBO
Branimir Furlan,
Zoran Barjaktarević
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: 
HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS 
ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
Povzetek
Ključne 
besede
Abstract
Key words
DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.5
 96 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
The purpose of this article is to answer the question of how accurate the projections 
th th
1 
Introduction
 97 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
 1 2003: PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
2
 
3
 
members”.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2 
3 
4 
 98 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
5
7. In order to understand 
5 
includes expenditure on the Natural and Other Disasters relief system.
ECB, 31 December 2002.
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
 99 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
 100 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
 2 15 YEARS LATER: DEFENCE EXPENDITURE IN 2018
.
 3 ANALYSIS
All data was provided by the Ministry of Defence.
9 
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
 101 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
of the armed forces.
10 
capabilities of the Republic of Slovenia, and for the establishment of the priority capabilities Slovenia needs for 
Figure 1: 
Slovenian 
defence 
expenditure 
2003-2018
Source: 
MOD, 
2 February, 
2019.
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
5
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
6
2
0
0
5
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
7
2
0
0
6
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
8
2
0
0
7
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
2
m
ill
io
n
 E
U
R
%
 G
D
P
369
397
413
486
506
566 575
583
479
423
382
366 361
406
422
463
 Defence expenditures      Percentage of GDP
1.43
1.40
1.49
0.93
1.59
1.01
1.41
1.61
0.98
1.54
1.05
1.30
1.01
1.44
0.97
1.17
 102 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
that enhancement was required due to the professionalization of the Slovenian 
Figure 2: 
Defence budget 
in relation to 
the state budget 
and GDP
Source: 
MOD, 
21 February, 
2019.
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
5
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
6
2
0
0
5
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
7
2
0
0
6
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
8
2
0
0
7
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
2
m
ill
io
n
 E
U
R
%
 MOD Financial plan      Percentage of budget      Percentage of GDP
321
358 387
447
488
546
550
553
448
396
351
340
344
389
407
454
1.22
5.14
1.44
6.45
0.89
3.51
1.29
3.36
1.52
5.94
0.96
4.32
1.32
5.38
1.52
5.95
0.95
4.44
1.42
5.86
0.97
3.77
1.22
4.79
0.99
4.80
1.39
6.29
0.90
3.52
1.10
4.40
 103 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
11 
social situation, the realization of this ambition could be implemented even after 2025”. 
12 
Figure 3: 
Projected and 
actual defence 
expenditure
Source: 
The authors, 
using data from 
different sources 
(see sections 2 
and 3).
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
%
 G
D
P
 Projection 1  Projection 2  Projection 3
 Actual 2010–2018  Actual 2003–2010
From To
 104 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
. Some of these capabilities are also purposed for the 
. Therefore Slovenia will not be able to meet some 
membership. 
13 
assigned goals and tasks or set up all the necessary defence capabilities.”
14 
2025. This decision is waiting to be incorporated into appropriate strategic guidance and planning documents.
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
 105 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
comparable in size to Slovenia. The structure of the contributions Slovenia provided 
 
Figure 4: 
Slovenian 
contributions 
to the NATO 
budget in 2018
Source: 
MOD, 29 March 
2019.
NATO AND SLOVENIA 15 YEARS ON: HOW ACCURATE WERE PROJECTIONS ABOUT DEFENCE EXPENDITURE
Civilian Budget, 
544.088 €, 6.6%
Other, 
641.300 €, 2%
NATO Security Investment 
Program (NSIP),  
1.458.933 €, 17.7%
Military Budget, 
2.399.163 €, 29.1%
Strategic Transport, 
2.056.504 €, 25%
NATO Command Structure, 
536.699 €, 6.5%
NATO Agencies, 
434.774 €, 5.3%
ANA Trust Fund, 
641.300 €, 7.8%
Contributions to the NATO budget: 4.402.184 € (53,4 %)
Total contributions to NATO: 8.239.215 €
 106 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
documents. 
assessments emphasise that defence capabilities and the readiness of the armed 
Figure 5: 
Projected 
and actual 
contributions 
to the NATO 
budget
Source: 
The authors, 
using available 
resources (see 
sections 2 
and 3).
Conclusion
Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
m
ill
io
n
 E
U
R
 Projection 1  Projection 2  Projection 3
 Projection 4  Projection 5
From To
Total contributions 
to NATO in 2018
Contributions to 
the NATO budget 
in 2018
 107 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
1. 
2. 
Social Sciences, Ljubljana.
3. Bebler, A., 2009. Slovenia’s Road to NATO (Pot Slovenije v Nato). Contemporary Military 
4. 
Papers, Washington D.C.
5. 
15 
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mail, 21 February 2019.
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NATO, 2014. Wales Summit Declaration. NATO Press Release, 5 September 2014. 
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Branimir Furlan, Zoran Barjaktarević