UDK 903’12/’15(4)“633/634”:314.18


Documenta Praehistorica XXXI 

Expected palaeoanthropological and archaeological
signal from a Neolithic demographic transition
on a worldwide scale


Jean-Pierre P. Bocquet-Appel1 and Jérôme Dubouloz2 

1 CNRS, EP 2147 44 Paris, France
bocquet-appel@ivry.cnrs.fr
2 CNRS, UMR 7041, “Protohistoire Européenne”, Nanterre, France


ABSTRACT – A signal of major demographic change was detected from a palaeoanthropological database of 68 Meso-Neolithic cemeteries in Europe (reduced to 36 due to a sampling bias). The signal 
is characterized by a relatively abrupt change in the proportion of immature skeletons (aged 5–19 
years), relative to all buried skeletons (5 years +). From the Meso to the Neolithic, the proportion rose 
from approximately 20% to 30%. This change reflects a noticeable increase in the birth rate over a 
duration of about 500–700 years, and is referred to as the Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT). 
Another category of independent archaeological data, on enclosures (N = 694), which are interpreted as a response to population growth within the social area, reveals a similar signal at the same 
tempo. If this is a true signal, we should expect it to be detected also in all the independent centres 
of agricultural invention worldwide. The NDT is at the historical root of the pre-industrial populations that would gradually spread across the Earth and which are now rapidly disappearing. 

IZVLE
EK – Na osnovi paleoantropolo
ke baze podatkov iz 68 evropskih mezo-neolitskih grobi
 (zaradi pristranskih vzorcev zmanj
anih na 36) smo ugotovili vejo demografsko spremembo, za katero je znailna razmeroma nenadna sprememba delea nerazvitih skeletov (starost 5 do 19 let) glede na vse pokopane skelete (5 let in ve). Od mezolitika do neolitika to razmerje naraste od okoli 
20% na 30%. Ta sprememba kae na znaten porast delea rojstev v obdobju 500 do 700 let in se nana
a na neolitski demografski prehod. Druga skupina neodvisnih, zakljuenih arheolo
kih podatkov 
(N = 694) iz socialnega okolja, ki jih razlagamo kot odgovor na rast prebivalstva, kae podobno spremembo v enakem tempu. e je znak za spremembo pravilen, lahko priakujemo, da ga bodo zaznali v vseh neodvisnih sredi
ih zaetka kmetovanja po svetu. Neolitski demografski prehod je zgodovinski zaetek predindustrijske populacije, ki se je postopoma raz
irila po Zemlji in ki danes hitro 
izginja. 

KEY WORDS – Neolithic; demographic transition; cemeteries distribution; enclosures distribution 

INTRODUCTION 

The impact of the demographic change generated by we be considering rather slow growth, with no sign 
the Meso-Neolithic transition on a European scale is of any kind of demographic revolution? 
mainly evident in the very significant increase in archaeological remains, but the pace of this change and A Neolithic demographic transition (NDT) can be de-
its magnitude have not really been measured: was tected through at least two types of data: palaeo-anit, on average, slow or rapid? Did this major transfor-thropological and archaeological. The first are repmation in a way of life correspond to a relatively ab-resented by the distribution of skeletons by age in 
rupt demographic change, with a significant increase cemeteries. These distributions allow the generating 
in the number of humans, i.e. in the language of de-demographic parameters to be directly inferred via 
mographers, to a demographic transition? Or should the demographic theory of stable population (dating 


Jean-Pierre P. Bocquet-Appel and Jérôme Dubouloz 

back to Lotka 1928; see Bourgeois-Pichat 1994, for 
a presentation). The archaeological data can also 
account for the change through variations in their 
density (quantity of information per geographical or 
temporal unit); assuming a roughly linear relationship between demographic density and archaeological density, we can indeed expect to see significant 
population growth producing a corresponding increase in archaeological information, and vice-versa: 
where remains are numerous, the population must 
also have been large; an archaeological desert means 
that there was nobody. The question thus arises as 
to which unit of archaeological information is relevant as a reflection of demographic change. The genetic data will be omitted here. Recent validations of 
contradictory genetic models that are taken into account for the distribution of markers in Europe – 
some of which indicate a Neolithic population movement originating in the Middle East (for a summary, 
see Cavalli-Sforza 1997), others a Palaeolithic movement originating in a Pyrenean refuge zone (Torroni et al. 2001; Forster et al. 2001) – leave the attentive observer in some doubt as to the chronological resolution of scenarios that can be tested against 
genetic data over periods of less than 50 000 years. 

Palaeoanthropological data from cemeteries are 
still the best candidates for detecting demographic 
change. They make it possible to obtain a simple 
non-conventional demographic indicator on the distribution of skeletons by age, the information being 
represented by the proportion of immature individuals aged 5 to 19 years in cemeteries. In a growing 
population, the proportion of immature individuals 
(living or dead) is high; in a declining population, 
the proportion is low. Besides the palaeoanthropological data, we also looked for an independent archaeological marker. This is represented by enclosures. During a period when significant demographic 
growth occurred, a corresponding increase can be 
assumed in the number of constructions for collective use, such as places of worship, military establishments, cemeteries, markets, mills, etc. An NDT signal 
was detected from a palaeoanthropologic database 
of Mesolithic and Neolithic cemeteries, representing 
a space-time sample of this proportion on the scale 
of Europe (Bocquet-Appel 2002; Bocquet-Appel and 
Paz de Miguel Ibanez 2002). The questions that 
arise are: is the change detected from the palaeoanthropologic data echoed by the number of enclosures 
and enclosure systems? Do these two data categories, 
palaeoanthropological and archaeological, point in 
the same direction to represent the pace and range 
of a Meso-Neolithic demographic change, or do they 

show discordances, bringing the assumption of an 
NDT into doubt? If the NDT hypothesis is accepted, 
what was its pattern, i.e. in which direction was the 
variation in mortality and birth rates? What was its 
magnitude in terms of growth rate? What were its 
predictable epidemiological consequences and its 
long-term demographic implications on a worldwide 
scale? 

PALAEOANTHROPOLOGICAL DATA FROM CEMETERIESANDTHEIRDEMOGRAPHICSIGNIFICANCE 

After exhaustive research in the literature, these data 
have been represented by a non-conventional demographic indicator, which is the proportion P of immature skeletons aged 5 to 19 years, d(5–19), relative to the total number of skeletons in a cemetery, 
d(5+), minus children aged under 5 years, which 
are known to be under-represented: 

15P5 = d(5–19)/d(5+); 

the demographic notation 15P5 means the proportion of skeletons aged 5 years, to 5 years plus 15 
years, i.e. 5 to 19 years. The criteria for the archaeological and anthropological selection of cemeteries 
and the corresponding enumerations and calculations are detailed in Bocquet-Appel (2002). The data 
represent 68 Meso-Neolithic cemeteries (Fig. 1). The 
dates (calibrated) of the cemeteries were either those 
given in the original publications, or the average 
dates of the cultures (or horizons) of these cemeteries. The demographic interpretation of 15P5 is obtained from a reference sample of 45 preindustrial life-
tables, from which demographic parameters were 
regressed on simulated stable populations, called palaeodemographic estimators (Bocquet-Appel 2002; 
Bocquet-Appel and Masset 1996; Bocquet and Mas-
set 1977). As an example, Figure 2 represents the 
relationship of 15P5, with the crude birth rate (b) and 
life expectancy at birth (e0). The relationship holds 
good with the input variable in the population represented by b, but becomes null with the output variable represented by e0. 

ARCHAEOLOGICAL DATA 

These are represented by approximately 700 enclosures in Central and Western Europe listed by Andersen (1997), to which a few units were added. Their 
significance as palaeodemographic markers is discussed in Bocquet-Appel and Dubouloz (2003). The Neolithic enclosures are interpreted as having a struc


Expected palaeoanthropological and archaeological signal from a Neolithic demographic transition on a worldwide scale 

Fig. 1. Geographical distribution of 68 Meso-Neolithic cemeteries (black 
points) and of 694 enclosures (circles dotted lines) (from Bocquet-Appel 
and Dubouloz 2003). 
nology. The reason for this 

change of reference frame is 

to concentrate archaeological 

information that is relatively 

scarce and scattered over 

space and time into the same 

reference frame provided by 

a relative chronology, in or

der to bring out an overall 

pattern underlying the data. 

Assuming that the Neolithic 

demographic transition was a 

demographic process in itself, 

occurring independently of 

the geographical location and 

absolute date of the sampled 

sites (cemeteries), as did the 

contemporary demographic 

transition, then geography 
can be eliminated from the space-time distribution 
of data, to preserve only the time distribution with 
reference to the local date when the process began, 
which is called the ‘neolithisation front’. A profile 
common to all the data was thus obtained, with no 
influence from geography or absolute chronology. 
The chronological distance of a cemetery to the neolithisation front, both localized in X, is thus the duration dt separating the dating of the front, t0(X), 
from that of the cemetery, t(X), that is to say: dt(X) 
= t0(X) – t(X) = dt. When dt is negative, the site is 
chronologically located before the neolithisation 
front, i.e. in the Mesolithic (see Bocquet-Appel 2002). 

To help understand the nature of the change in the 
chronological reference frame, additional explana

tural link with the processes underlying the organization of social space in prehistoric communities. A 
common general significance, which seems to include particular cases, is that each one, at its own 
level (from local to regional) can be seen, as a territorial marker that polarizes the geographical and social space through a “monumental” signal of supra-
domestic value. A connection is therefore likely between demography and sites of this type. This connection is taken as reflecting a form of demographic 
pressure. To minimize documentary risks stemming 
from differences in national archaeological practices, 
the geographical space analyzed is roughly copied 
from that of the “Danubian Neolithic colonization”. 
The selected sites thus relate to the regions which, 
to the north of the Alpine arc, stretch from Transdanubia to the Atlantic and the Baltic (Fig. 
1). An archaeological chronology, broadly dated by 14C measurements, was used. 

THE RELATIVE CHRONOLOGICAL REFERENCE FRAME OF THE CHANGE 

The distribution of data in space and time 
accumulates processes in the Meso-Neolithic transition which occurred at different times from locality to locality on the 
map, and this makes it difficult to bring 
out the phenomenon of a single demographic transition that transcends absolute chronology and proceeds at its own 
pace. Instead of an absolute chronology, 
the reference frame was changed, and 
the data positioned within a relative chro-

Fig. 2. Relationship of 15P5, with the crude birth rate (b) and 
the life expectancy at birth (e0). The relationship is good with 
the input variable in the population represented by b but nil 
with the output variable represented by e0. 

Jean-Pierre P. Bocquet-Appel and Jérôme Dubouloz 

tions are given here, based on an historical example. 
It should be remembered that the contemporary demographic transition, featuring a historical drop in 
mortality and then in fertility, is a process taking 
place on a worldwide scale, but at different dates, in 
a chronological window extending from the 18th to 
the 21st centuries. For example, this transition started at around 1841 in Privas (France), 1901 in Carlow (Ireland) and 1961 in Coimbatore (India) (Balabdaoui et al. 2001; Bocquet-Appel and Jakobi 
1996; 1998). In order to compare regional demographic changes regardless of the chronological time 
lag, for example to assess their pace or their amplitude relatively to each other, all the profiles representing the temporal change should be placed within the same neutral reference frame of a relative 
chronology. Within this framework, the natural reference point is the date when the transition process 
began in each region (respectively 1841, 1901 and 
1961), which is taken as time t = 0. A relative chronology common to the three regions can thus be established by simply subtracting their respective starting dates from each of the three absolute chronologies. The resulting chronology is in units of deviation from the start of the process. It is actually a 
time span, but with no reference to an absolute 
chronology. This unit of deviation, may be called dt. 
Figure 3a shows the reduction in the average number of children, via the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 
the three regions of our example, through the relative chronology dt. The pace of the fertility transition is much faster in Coimbatore (India) than in Privas (France), although it occurred 120 years later. 
When the deviations, dt, are plotted on a graph, the 
range of chronological variation for the demogra

phic transition, considered as a global phenomenon 
occurring independently of time or place, becomes 
apparent (see Fig. 3b). The representation of the demographic change is quite correct, whereas it is 
wrong if it is represented in terms of absolute chronology (Fig. 3c). 

DATA ANALYSIS 

A trend emerging from cemeteries and detection of the signal of a demographic transition 

Figure 4 shows the 15P5 profile obtained at a chronological distance from the neolithisation front dt, 
from the total database (U = 6, 
2 = 20.450 with 1 
df, P < 0.000). A transition signal is detected. This 
profile shows the trend underlying the 15P5 in the relative chronology framework. It is estimated by a local fit in the 15P5 cloud, which is comparable to a 
moving average (also called a Loess fit; Bocquet-
Appel 2002). The test for rejecting the null hypothesis of a flat profile, i.e. not showing the broken line 
typical of an abrupt change occurring in a transition, 
was performed with Mann-Whitney’s non-parametric U test. This test constitutes the detection of the 
signal of a demographic transition. Finally, to estimate the values of the demographic variables, palaeodemographic estimators were applied directly 
to the values of the profile of the 15P5, not to the individual values for cemeteries. Although the profile 
(Fig. 4) is interesting, a bias from the over-representation of immature individuals in small cemeteries, 
probably of archaeological origin, was detected, forcing us to eliminate cemeteries where the sample 

A 
BC 

Fig. 3. Fertility transition (TFR) in three regions. The onsets are respectively in 1830 (Privas, France), 
1911 (Carlow, Ireland) and 1961 (Coimbatore, India). A) Each transition in absolute chronology; B) The 
average (loess fit) of the three transitions in relative chronology (dt); C) the average (loess fit) of the three 
transitions in absolute chronology. The pattern of the fertility transition is detected in relative (dt) but 
not in absolute chronology. 


Expected palaeoanthropological and archaeological signal from a Neolithic demographic transition on a worldwide scale 


very substantial change in the proportion of immature skeletons lasts 
almost throughout the entire Neolithic dt, relative to the Mesolithic. In 
short, the palaeoanthropological data 
from the cemeteries contain demographic information which, taken 
overall, reveal the pattern of a true 
Meso-Neolithic transition in Europe. 
With currently available data, a clear 
break from the previous stationary 
demographic regime of hunter-gatherers characterises this transition, over 
a relatively short time span of dt 
500 years. 

The trend in the enclosure data 

Two approaches were used, the first 
based on absolute chronology, i.e. 
historical time, the second on relative, i.e. more local chronology, dt, 

Fig. 4. Profile proportion of immature 15P5 (P(5–19)) in the ceme-in order to bring the results closer to 
teries (vertical axis) with the chronological distance to the neoli-those obtained with the palaeoanthisation front (dt, horizontal axis). N = 68 Mesolithic and Neoli-thropological data from cemeteries. 
thic sites. Note: dt = 0 is the starting chronological point of the neo-Only the latter approach is described 
lithisation front, dt < 0 is in the Mesolithic, dt > 0 is in the Neoli-here (see Bocquet-Appel and Duthic. Up to a constant, the profile represents the variation of the bouloz 2003). The profile of enclobirth rate. It shows a continuous increase which begins around 
dt = –200 years until dt = 1000 years (from Bocquet-Appel 2002). sure frequencies (count) along the 

size of skeletons was below 50 (Bocquet-Appel 
2002). The new, reduced sample thus includes only 
36 cemeteries (3 Mesolithic, 33 Neolithic). This narrows the chronological frame from dt = –1.500 to 
dt = 3.000. Figure 5 shows the variation in estimated crude birth rate, with at profile of 15P5 with dt, 
obtained from these 36 cemeteries. A signal of major demographic change, starting at the very beginning of the Neolithic (U = 26, 
2 = 11.04 with 1df, 
P = 0.001), was thus detected. Our interest here is 
only in the zone on the neolithisation front. This is 
of particular interest as it provides information on 
the magnitude of the change at its onset. If we consider the maximum of the first bulge on the dt axis 
as representing the upper limit of the Neolithic demographic transition, at its onset, then the transition covers a relatively short time of approximately 
500 years. On the profile, from dt = 0 to the maximum of the first bulge (dt  500), the smoothed value corresponding to the proportion of immature individuals relative to d(5+), 15P5, rises from 16% to 
27%, i.e. a 70%, increase, while the corresponding 
estimated value of the growth rate rises from –0.3% 
to 1.3% (±1.07%) (see Bocquet-Appel 2002). This 

chronological distance dt is represented in Figure 6 (black line). This shows a rapid increase in the size of the enclosure sites, as from dt = 
300–600 years, culminating at dt = 600–900 years, 
then a slow decrease until dt = 1200–1500 years, 
followed by a clear decline. The data were then sorted against the criterion of whether they were included in the distribution area of the Linear Ceramics 
Culture (LBK). The profile for LBK regions (dotted 
line) shows a rapid response at dt = 300–900 years; 
a recrudescence in the number of enclosures occurs 
at dt = 1800–2400 years after the beginnings of the 
Neolithic, measured locally, mainly from eastern 
Germany to Bavaria. The profile for the periphery 
shows two peaks close together, separated by a 
threshold located at a high level: the first of these 
peaks (where dt = 300–600 years) relates to the 
areas of the northern periphery (Denmark, Great 
Britain), the intermediate threshold (where dt = 
600–1200 years) points to the north of France and 
the second peak (where dt = 1200–1500 years) represents the west of France. The extreme western 
periphery thus indicates a long time-lag, which can 
even be considered to broaden downstream (enclosures at the end of the 4th and the beginning of the 


Jean-Pierre P. Bocquet-Appel and Jérôme Dubouloz 

3rd millennium in the west of France). This profile 
for peripheral enclosures (dotted line) thus suggests 
three different growth processes: a rapid response, 
as in the LBK regions in Denmark and England, a 
slow response in the west of France; and a moderate 
response in the north of France. The broad outline 
of the main profile (black line) and the fairly rapid 
“response” time after the “local” beginnings of the 
Neolithic that it suggests, correlate well with the demographic phenomenon deduced from the cemeteries (Figs. 4 and 5). This general distribution of territorial markers, in relative time, particularly in the 
LBK areas in Denmark and in England, suggests a rapid response from a strongly stimulated system, followed by its adaptation to the new situation. 

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 

In theory, what connects the variation of the two indicators (palaeoanthropological, representing the 
proportion of immature 15P5, and archaeological, representing the number of enclosures), is the growth 
of population with the establishment of an agro-pastoral way of life. Their two profiles should, therefore, 
be similar. Figures 5 and 6 show that this is indeed 
the case. The two indicators also converge in the es


timation of the pace at which this first demographic 
transition in Europe, considered overall, emerged. 
The pace was fastest for the palaeoanthropological 
data (dt  500) as for enclosure data (dt = 600–900). 
In other words, the demographic change that generated a noticeable growth in the population became 
established over a relatively short time span. This 
change is characterized by a clear break with the former stationary regime of Mesolithic hunter-gatherers 
(according to the palaeoanthropological data), over 
a time span of approximately 500–900 years, possibly less. The likely cause of the rising birth rate and 
underlying fertility rate is to be found in the shorter 
birth interval that ensued from the sedentarisation 
of farming communities (Bocquet-Appel 2002). 

But, as we know, any growing population will eventually reach the limits of its carrying capacity, triggering off the mechanisms of the Malthusian model 
(for a summary, see Wood 1998; Lee 1994). The probable scenario is therefore as follows: after a rise in 
the crude birth rate, a corresponding increase in the 
crude death rate is to be expected, i.e. a return to 
homeostatic equilibrium. For the NDT, the rise in 
mortality must have been caused by the emergence 
of new pathogens, mainly infectious diseases resulting from the zoonoses of domesticated animals (cattle, sheep, goats and pigs), as well as 
from the anastomosis of village units 
that facilitated their spreads (Bocquet-
Appel 2002). Mortality, which has a 
major impact on population, primarily 
affects children under 5 years old. A 
history of infectious diseases and their 
phyletic relationship with pathogenic 
animals is yet to be written (see also 

Gubser and Smith 2002; McNeill 
1993; McKeown 1988). However, candidates would include viral diseases 
(smallpox, measles, mumps, rubella, 
chicken pox and poliomyelitis) and 
bacterial diseases (whooping-cough, 
diphteria, meningitis and typhoid). 
We now need to seek genetic markers 
of these candidate diseases, in the 
pulp cavities of the teeth of child skeletons, following the method that was 
successfully used for plague (Drancourt et al. 1998). We need to attempt 
a dating for the initial appearance of 
these infectious diseases, at the end 
of the Mesolithic era and the beginning of the Neolithic (for example 
with the PPNA vs. PPNB locally), in 

Fig. 5. Variation of estimated crude birth rate on the profile of 
15P5 with dt, obtained from the reduced sample of 36 cemeteries. 
The signal of an important demographic change is detected, which 
started at the onset of the Neolithic (U = 26.5, 
2 = 11.04 with 1df, 
P = 0.001). 

Expected palaeoanthropological and archaeological signal from a Neolithic demographic transition on a worldwide scale 

Fig. 6. Profile of the number of enclosure at the chronologi-
cal distance dt (black line). It shows a fast growth of the 
number of enclosures as of dt = 300–600 years, to culmi-
nate with dt = 600–900 years, then a slow decrease until 
dt = 1200–1500 years before a marked depression (from 
Bocquet-Appel and Dubouloz 2003). 
order to try to estimate the duration of the 
demographic expansion which preceded 
the return to homeostatic equilibrium. 

The consequences of the NDT were perhaps comparable with that of the natural 
demographic transition in 19th century Europe, in terms of rapid demographic expansion. A consequence of the contemporary 
demographic transition has been an explosive growth rate of about 3% over a hundred years. What followed was the continent-wide destruction of the hunter-gatherers and horticulturists of North America 
and Australia, resulting from a major demographic invasion by surplus populations of 
European peasants. But the order of the 
causal demographic variables and their directions were reversed: rising fertility followed by rising mortality during the NDT, 
as against falling mortality followed by a 
drop in fertility during the contemporary 
Western demographic transition. 

The detection of the NDT signal was conditioned by the space-time data available. The 

demographic pattern obtained is a kind of 
average of samples that centred in particular on the “Danubian” culture. The NDT we 
detected did not necessarily occur at the 
same pace everywhere on the map, especially around the periphery of Europe. A geographical differentiation of the process 
needs to be considered, depending on the 
local pace of neolithisation. More data, with 
a better distribution over time and space, 
should help to refine the regional picture 
of the NDT. 

Finally, the assumption can now be made 
that the NDT occurred in all the independent centres of agriculture invention on 
Earth, during the chronological window 
from 10 000 to 4000 BP. Its signal should 
therefore be detectable in cemetery data 
from the regions corresponding to these 
centres. As the geographical expansion of 
the agro-pastoral economic system, the vehicle for the new demographic regime, extended from these centres, the areas eventually connected to form a single area of relative demographic homogeneity, giving 
rise to the worldwide pre-industrial population regime, featuring a low growth rate 

Fig. 7. Projection of the two standardized profiles (z-
scores, vertical axis), palaeoanthropological (cemeteries) 
and archaeological (enclosures) with the chronological dis-
tance to the neolithisation front (dt, horizontal axis). 

Jean-Pierre P. Bocquet-Appel and Jérôme Dubouloz 

and high mortality and birth rates, also called the expansion of the contemporary demographic transi“high pressure system” (McCaa 2002). The relic de-tion, this pre-industrial population regime, which 
mographic regime of the hunter-gatherers known to dates back to the Neolithic, is now disappearing. 
ethnography has remained at its margins. With the 

 
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cont ent s