.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o X X 00 o Ü) o u 0) o JZ u fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 3 / Vol. XX / 2014 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Urška Brodar, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Lejla Fajič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Boxes Box 1: Forecast of economic activity in selected trading partners outside the euro area...................................8 Box 2: Merchandise trade in 2013.....................................................................................................................................11 Box 3: A comparison of two methodologies for monitoring the amount of bad claims....................................21 Box 4: Main aggregates of the general government sector, ESA95.................................................................................23 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................25 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 4 April 2014. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Economic activity in the euro area continued to increase at the beginning of this year; like other international institutions, the ECB revised upwards its spring forecast for economic growth. Activity in construction and retail trade rose in January, while activity in manufacturing remained at December's level (seasonally adjusted). A further increase in activity is also indicated by the confidence indicators PMI and ESI, which were up again in the first three months. Confidence improved at the beginning of the year in most sectors, in March also among consumers. According to the most recent projections of the ECB, euro area GDP will increase by 1.2% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015 amid a gradual strengthening of domestic demand and a continuing positive contribution of net exports. Having increased again at the beginning of the year, most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia reached, or exceeded, the values recorded in the same month of 2013. In January activity increased across all sectors (seasonally adjusted), with the exception of the sale of motor vehicles, which nevertheless exceeded the January 2013 level by a tenth. The strongest growth was reported by the construction sector, up 42.9% on January last year. Exports, where growth is rising, and production volume in manufacturing were also up relative to the previous January, as were turnover in market services and turnover in wholesale trade. After increasing in the last few months, turnover in retail trade was again around the same levels as in January 2013. Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at the beginning of this year. The number of employed has otherwise remained almost unchanged since April 2013, but the number of registered unemployed continues to rise. At the end of February, 129,764 persons were registered as unemployed, 5,698 more than in February 2013 and the most since 1998. In the private sector gross earnings per employee increased again in January, while they remained unchanged in the public sector. The minimum wage was adjusted for last year's inflation in January, so that the gross minimum wage for full-time work now totals EUR 789.15. In January 46,721 persons employed with legal entities received the minimum wage (8.1 % of all). The shares of minimum-wage recipients are highest (in relative terms) in administrative and support service activities, accommodation and food service activities and construction. Consumer prices increased in March and were up 0.6% year-on-year. The 0.8% increase relative to the previous month was mainly due to seasonally higher clothing and footwear prices, which, alongside services prices, also contributed the most to higher year-on-year inflation compared with February. The situation in the banking system remained adverse in February. The stock of loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined more notably again after the moderation in January. Households, enterprises and NFIs repaid more than EUR 200 m in domestic bank loans in the first two months. Household deposits were up EUR 315 m in the same period, which is, in our estimation, a result of greater confidence in Slovenian banks after the beginning of the banking system stabilisation, as well as February's disbursement of the first part of delayed payments of the third quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities. Government deposits also rose in the first two months (by around EUR 435 m). Corporate borrowing abroad increased slightly again in January, mainly in the form of short-term loans. The gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates declined by more than 50 basis points at the beginning of the year, in our estimation also due to the beginning of the banking system stabilisation. Banks continue to deleverage abroad. The general government deficit totalled EUR 209.0 m in January and was 24.8% smaller than in January last year due to higher revenue and lower expenditure. Revenue increased across all categories, with the exception of EU funds. The decrease in expenditure was mainly a result of lower expenditure on the wage bill, expenditure on goods and services and transfers to individuals and households (except for pensions and social security transfers). Expenditure on investments, subsidies and interest payments increased. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment The values of short-term indicators of economic activity indicate a further improvement in the euro area at the beginning of this year. Construction output and turnover in retail trade improved substantially in January, while production volume in manufacturing remained similar to December (seasonally adjusted). The euro area's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated growth in economic activity in all main trading partners in March and recorded the highest quarterly value in the last three years. The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the euro area rose again in March. Consumer confidence increased in particular, on account of a substantial improvement in expectations about the general economic situation, savings and the level of unemployment. Confidence in retail trade and services also increased slightly, while industry and construction sentiment remained broadly unchanged compared with February. In February the unemployment rate in the euro area was approximately the same as a year earlier (11.9%; 12.0% in February 2013). The unemployment rate of young people (between15 and 24 years) was somewhat lower (23.5%; 24.0% in February 2013). According to the forecasts by the European Commission, the labour market conditions in the euro area will not deteriorate further this year, while in 2015 unemployment will fall slightly. Figure 1: Unemployment rates in the euro area ■ 2013 »2008 XForecast EC 2014 AForecast EC 2015 30 20 Source: Eurostat, European Commission (forecastFebruary 2014). Similar to some other international institutions, the ECB revised upwards its forecast for euro area economic growth on the basis of favourable data on economic activity at the end of last year. In the final quarter of 2014 GDP continued to recover (0.2%, seasonally adjusted) largely on account of growth in exports. Gross fixed capital formation and private consumption also contributed to growth. In the March projections for the euro area, the ECB anticipates GDP to increase by 1.2% in 2014 (0.1 percentage points more than forecast in December) and by 1.5% in 2015. Growth will mainly be driven by a gradual strengthening in domestic demand as a result of increased confidence, a less restrictive fiscal policy stance, improved credit supply conditions and higher real disposable income (also due to low inflation). Exports will continue to rise on the back to higher external demand and due to the anticipated gradual fading away of the impact of the appreciation of the euro, but the contribution of net exports will be smaller than in previous years. Figure 2: Structure of economic growth in the euro area I Private consumption iGross fixed capital formation lImports of goods and services -GDP (right axis) iGovernment consumption B Changes in inventories I Exports of goods and services Source: Eurostat. The required yields of euro area government bonds dropped again in March. The decline in the yields of the highest-quality government bonds was mainly a result of tensions in Ukraine and a consequent increase in demand for safe investment. The yields of the countries affected by the sovereign debt crisis fell due to improved expectations about economic growth and, according to Figure 3: Yield to maturity of ten-year government bonds -Slovenia -Portugal -----Spain -Italy ^ •• Ireland .........Germany .........Austria 18 - 16 10 ^ 6 ^^ 4 ..... ................ ............................. Source: Bloomberg. 25 15 10 5 0 8 2 0 Box 1: Forecast of economic activity in selected trading partners outside the euro area At the end of last year economic activity increased in all Slovenia's main trading partners outside the euro area except Croatia. After the strengthening of economic activity in new EU Member States at the end of last year, international institutions (European Commission, Consensus, Focus Economics, WIIW) expect further growth this year. The strongest GDP growth in the final quarter of 2013 was recorded in the Czech Republic, where after the fall in 2013 (-0.9%), the economy will recover this year mainly as a result of higher net exports. GDP growth in Poland and Hungary will reflect higher domestic consumption, particularly in investment. Last year economic activity also increased in the former Yugoslav republics, with the exception of Croatia. In 2013 Croatia's GDP declined for the fifth year in a row (-1.0%) amid a fall in both domestic consumption and net exports. The prospects for this year remain bleak, as international institutions expect practically no growth. Economic growth in Serbia will continue. After the moderation in 2014 due to structural reforms, it will strengthen next year on account of increased investment related to the process of EU accession. Figure 4: Forecasts of economic growth in Slovenia's trading partners outside the euro area for 2014 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 Ei^ 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.6 Czech R. Poland Croatia Serbia* Russia Hungary Source: European Commission (February 2014), Consensus Forecasts (March 2014), Focus Economics (March 2014), WIIW (March 2014). * Focus Economics does not make forecasts for Serbia. International institutions are revising downwards their GDP forecasts for Russia for this year. GDP growth in 2013 (1.3%) was the lowest since 2009, the main factors in modest growth being lower private consumption and a decline in fixed capital formation. International institutions are lowering their forecasts for this year, mainly in view of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. They anticipate the tightening of financial conditions and uncertainty regarding the developments in the region to reduce investment, while consumption will fall due to higher inflation as a result of the weak ruble. Furthermore, Russia could also be affected by economic sanctions of the US and the European Union. the ECB, lower risk aversion of international investors and positive changes in rating outlooks. The largest declines in government bond yields since December 2013 were recorded by Slovenia and Portugal (by more than 140 basis points). The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged again in March. It confirmed the expectations that the key interest rates will remain at the present or lower level for an extended period of time. Its monetary policy stance continues to focus on increasing demand and on the recovery of economy in the euro area. Amid low inflation in the euro area and deflationary pressures in some euro area countries, the ECB does not exclude the possibility of further measures to boost the economic recovery. The average monthly value of the euro against the US dollar recorded its three-year high in March. The appreciation of the euro was mainly impacted by the decision of the ECB at the beginning of March to maintain an accommodative monetary policy and keep its key interest rate unchanged (0.25%). The euro also gained value as a result of slower economic growth in China and heightened tensions in Ukraine. The developments in Ukraine were also reflected in food prices, which were up 2.7% in February according to the IMF, while lower demand in China impacted prices Table 1: Money market interest rates and the exchange rates of national currencies against the EUR Interest rates average, in % change, in b. p. 2013 III 13 II 14 III 14 III 14/II 14 III 14/III 13 3-month EURIBOR rate 0.220 0.206 0.288 0.305 1.7 9.9 3-month USD LIBOR rate 0.268 0.282 0.235 0.234 -0.1 -4.8 3-month CHF LIBOR rate 0.021 0.022 0.018 0.021 0.3 -0.1 Exchange rates average change, in % 2013 III 13 II 14 III 14 III 14/II 14 III 14/III 13 EUR/USD 1.328 1.296 1.365 1.382 1.2 6.6 EUR/CHF 1.231 1.227 1.221 1.218 -0.3 -0.7 EUR/GBP 0.849 0.860 0.825 0.832 0.8 -3.3 EUR/JPY 129.66 122.99 139.32 141.48 1.5 15.0 3.3 1.8 1= 1.5 1.2 -0.3 Table 2: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Oil average change, in % 2013 III 13 II 14 III 14 III 14/II 14 III 14/III 13 Brent USD 108.56 108.47 108.9 107.48 -1.3 -0.9 Brent EUR 81.66 86.71 78.76 79.42 0.8 -8.4 Commodities change, in % 2013/2012 II 14/I 14 II 14/II 13 Non-energy commoditites -1.2 1.1 -5.5 Food 1.1 2.7 -3.4 Agricultural raw materials 1.4 0.5 6.4 Metals -4.2 -2.5 -16.2 Source: EIA, ECB, IMF, calculations by IMAD. Figure 5: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) 80 60 40 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. of metals, which were down 2.6%. The escalating tensions in Ukraine, an important transit country for Russian oil, had no major impact on the oil price in dollars, which was down 1.3%. Economic developments in Slovenia Economic activity increased further at the beginning of the year. Most of the short-term indicators of economic activity improved in January and reached, or exceeded, their levels in the same period of last year (most notably in the construction sector). After the increase in the final quarter of last year, production volume in manufacturing rose slightly again in January. Merchandise exports also continued to grow at the beginning of the year; both exports to the EU and outside the EU were up. Growth in construction activity continued, the construction of civil-engineering structures having increased most notably in the last few months. Turnover in retail and wholesale trade also increased further at the beginning of the year, while turnover in the sale of motor vehicles dropped after Figure 6: Non-energy commodity prices in dollars - Non-energy commodities Agricultural raw materials Figure 7: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia ;?100 90 E == 80 CO 70 60 (S 50 40 o 30 - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manuf. • Value of construction put in place Turnover in retail trads -f...........!...........1............}•• ...........^............r Source: IMF. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 140 120 105 - Low-technology industries - Medium-low-technology industries - Medium-high-and high-technology industries Manufacturing, total 90 85 65 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity strengthened significantly in January. The value of construction put in place rose by 22.4% in January (seasonally adjusted), and was 42.9% higher than in the previous January. In the last few months activity picked up across all construction segments; the least in the construction of dwellings, more notably in the construction of non-residential buildings and the most in civil-engineering, which is related to the construction of municipal infrastructure co-financed with EU funds. The stock of contracts in the construction sector was up 21.2 % year-on-year in January. The increase was solely a result of a larger stock of contracts in civil engineering (72.2%, related to the construction of municipal infrastructure). The stock of contracts in the construction of both residential and non-residential buildings was down year- Figure 14: Value of construction put in place rN i5 40 ■D != J^ 20 Total Residential buildings Non-residental buildings - Civil-engineering structures on-year, which was linked to the limited access to funding and, in our estimation, a large stock of unsold buildings. Activity in trade continued to pick up in January (seasonally adjusted), being much higher than a year earlier in the sale of motor vehicles and wholesale trade. After the lowest level in September last year, turnover in retail trade had been rising slightly in the next few months, but remained down year-on-year. In January turnover increased in all three segments of retail trade, most notably in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products, and in the sale of non-food products, where the highest growth was recorded in the sale of household appliances and audio and video recordings. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade also rose, having exceeded last year's level almost by 5%. Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles was down somewhat after strengthening since August but was still a tenth higher than a year earlier. Figure 15: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ----- of which automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. ^105 ^100 !Z ^ 95 JZ || 90 85 80 75 '■TD ro J^ 70 != O 65 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)5 increased significantly in January (seasonally adjusted) after the moderation at the end of the year. The increase was largest in information-communication services, particularly in computer programming. Strong growth was also reported by transport services, where turnover in land transport exceeded the average 2008 level by a fifth. January's growth in administrative and support service activities was driven primarily by cleaning services and travel agencies. The latter otherwise had by a third lower turnover than before the crisis, but turnover in employment services, where it stagnated in January, was much higher. Turnover in professional and technical services was down slightly, largely on account of a substantial fall in architectural and engineering services, but turnover in legal and accounting services increased. o ^ ^ ^^ J^ ^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 5 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. > 100 95 80 75 70 ra 100 80 o 60 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities declined slightly, but was much higher year-on-year. Figure 16: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional-technical activ. (M) -Administrative and support service activities (N) ^^ ------Accommodation and food service activities (I) 110 105 95.' 5? 85 80 declined further in February (7.9%, seasonally adjusted)8 and was 17.4% lower year-on-year. In the first two months it was 15.4% lower than in the same period of 2013. Figure 17: Household consumption indicators -No. of first passenger car registrations by natural persons -Turnover in the sale of durable goods -----Net wage bill (right axis) 106 104 >1 ŠŠ 102 H 100 98 96 ^^ 94 ^ 92 88 86 Ii ^ rN rN m ^ ^ ^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 8B 8B 55 55 Source: SURS, Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning; calculations by IMAD. At the beginning of the year household income was similar to the same period of 2013 while the volumes of loans and deposits at banks remained lower. In the first two months the net wage bill, which has increased since mid-2013 (seasonally adjusted) after falling since the beginning of 2012, was similar to the first two months of 2013 (in real terms). In January transfers to individuals and households were down again year-on-year in real terms (-3.0%).6 After a decline in the first two months, total loan volume remained lower year-on-year in February (-3.4%). Consumer loans, having grown in the last month, were lower than in February 2013 (-9.2%), while housing loans were slightly higher (1.0%). Household deposits at banks, having risen more notably again in the last two months, remained lower than in the same period last year (-2.1%). The values of some short-term indicators of household consumption rose at the beginning of the year. Turnover in the sale of durable goods7 increased again in January (4.9%, seasonally adjusted) and was up year-on-year again (8.7%). After the increase at the end of last year, turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels also rose slightly (0.7%, seasonally adjusted) and was roughly the same as in the same month of 2013. The number of first passenger car registrations by natural persons 6 According to the consolidated public finance balance of the Ministry of Finance. Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or reserves. The total amount of transfers is therefore slightly smaller. 7 Turnover in the sale of furniture, construction material, household appliances, audio/video recordings in specialised stores. Within that, turnover in furniture and construction material rose by 4.4%, seasonally adjusted (up 14.8% year-on-year) and turnover in household appliances and audio and video recordings by 12.2%, seasonally adjusted (up 7.5% year-on-year). Economic sentiment and consumer confidence improved again in March. The improvement in the economic climate seen since the beginning of the second half of 2012 accelerated at the end of 2013. It was mainly a result of greater confidence in services and in the construction sector, where the confidence indicator increased the most again in March. After the deterioration at the end of last year, consumer confidence also improved somewhat at the beginning of 2014. Figure 18: Business trends - Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Consumers 30 0 -10 :: -20 -30 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 8 The number of first registrations of passenger cars used by natural persons was 10% lower in February and 16.7% lower year-on-year (the owner of a car used by a natural person can also be a legal entity, for example in the case of leasing). 100 90 90 75 40 20 10 -40 -50 -60 5 -70 Labour market The number of employed persons9 has remained relatively unchanged since spring 2013. The decline in the number recorded since the end of 2008 came to a halt in April 2013 and remained more or less unchanged until January (seasonally adjusted). Since the beginning of the second quarter of last year the number of employed persons has risen slightly in public services, while being slightly lower in the construction sector (seasonally adjusted) due to a strong decline in December. In January the number of employed persons was down 0.1% year-on-year, most notably in construction. Given the larger number of registered unemployed, the registered unemployment Figure 19: Employed according to the statistical register of employment (SRE) and registered unemployed ^ 860 840 820 800 780 1= S^' 760 I? 740 IS 700 t 680 660 -Employed according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) t...................?..........r..........}••• I..........i-- J.....;.....:.....i... Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. 240 220 ^ 200 180 ü 140 I 120 100 H 80 ^ 60 40 rate rose more notably, by 0.2 percentage points to 13.6%, seasonally adjusted, and was highest since 1999. The number of registered unemployed increased further at the beginning of the year. At the end of February, 129,764 persons were registered as unemployed, 5,698 more than in February 2013 and the most since 1998. According to original data, registered unemployment remained similar to January; seasonally adjusted, it rose further in February, by 0.5%. The seasonally adjusted growth of registered unemployment was, as in January, Table 4: Indicators of labour market trends in % 2012 2013 I 14/ XII 13 I 14/ I 13 Labour force -1.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 Persons in formal employment -1.7 -2.0 -0.7' -0.9 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -1.6 -2.6 -0.4 -0.6 Registered unemployed -0.5 8.8 0.6^ 4.5 Average nominal gross wage 0.1 -0.2 0.2^ 0.7 - private sector 0.5 0.6 0.2^ 1.7 - public sector -0.9 -1.3 0.0^ -0.7 -of which general government -2.2 -2.5 -0.1' -1.1 2013 I 13 XII 13 I 14 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.0 13.0 13.4 13.6 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,523.18 1,523.80 1,544.85 1,534.54 Private sector (in EUR) 1,404.40 1,397.13 1,425.54 1,421.34 Public sector (in EUR) 1,740.78 1,754.05 1,764.57 1,741.94 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,716.48 1,729.06 1,724.50 1,709.94 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted. Table5: Unemployment flows I-XII 13 I-II 13 I-II 14 II 14 INFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 108,344 23,190 22,788 7,973 First-time jobseekers 19,071 2,633 3,072 1,378 Jobseekers who lost work 88,710 20,522 19,675 6,581 Bankruptcy of the company 3,732 672 719 298 Business reasons or compulsory settlement 17,896 3,586 3,520 1,433 Termination of fixed-term contracts 54,004 13,682 12,955 3,810 Other reasons 13,078 2,582 2,481 1,040 Other (transitions between records) 563 35 41 14 OUTFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 102,390 17,185 17,039 8,052 Unemployed who found work 65,054 10,999 12,184 5,977 Public works 5,423 2,191 2,629 1,418 Self-employment 5,789 725 474 254 Transitions into inactivity 13,295 1,863 1,939 810 Retirement 8,511 1,235 1,064 483 Breaches of regulations 14,772 2,696 1,639 656 Other (transfer to other registers, other) 9,269 1,627 1,277 609 9 According to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE); these are employed and self-employed persons excluding self-employed farmers. 720 Table 6: Employed persons by activity Number in '000 Change in Number 2013 I 13 XII 13 I 14 2013/ 2012 I 14/ XII 13 I 14/ I 13 Manufacturing 177.7 177.8 177.0 177.1 -5,235 73 -793 Construction 54.3 52.0 52.0 51.1 -5,541 -980 -945 Market services 333.1 331.9 333.5 331.9 -5,260 -1,543 67 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 104.2 105.7 103.8 103.3 -3,656 -488 -2,465 Public services 170.1 169.6 170.2 169.7 -1,489 -481 147 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.6 -1,559 -256 -589 Education 65.4 65.4 65.6 65.7 -71 44 328 Human health and social work activities 55.6 55.0 55.7 55.4 141 -269 408 Other 58.4 57.4 58.6 51.8 1,121 -6,831 -5,626 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. mainly attributable to a large inflow of persons who became unemployed due to the expiration of fixed-term contracts, and first-time jobseekers. The average gross earnings per employee rose slightly in January. After the increase in 2013, gross earnings in the private sector10 rose again (0.2%), while gross earnings in the public sector remained unchanged. Government sector earnings stayed at the previous month's level, while earnings in public corporations11 rose (2.2%) and approached the level before the fluctuations at the end of 2013 (seasonally adjusted). The year-on-year declines in public and government sector earnings in January were Figure 20: Average gross earnings per employee -Total -----Private sector -----Publicsector - -of which general government sector — -ofwhich publiccorporations 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 ^ 1,600 is 1,550 i|1,500 1,450 != 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 m m c^ CO Crt Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 10 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on earnings in the private and public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government), and only exceptionally on earnings in activities of the private sector and in public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics -Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sector. 11 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. somewhat smaller than in previous months (-0.7% and -1.1%, respectively), while earnings in the private sector remained up in year-on-year terms (1.7%). Growth in industry (3.3%) remained higher than in market services (0.5%). In January the minimum wage level was adjusted for year-on-year inflation in 2013.12 The gross minimum wage for full-time work now totals EUR 789.15 (previously EUR 783.66). According to AJPES data, 46,721 persons employed with legal entities received the minimum wage in January, i.e. 8.1% of all. This is a slightly lower figure than last year (50,571), but approximately 2.5 times as high as before the adoption of the new Minimum Wage Act (19,047 in 2009). The majority of minimum wage earners remain in manufacturing (in January, 24.4% of all), followed by trade (16.6%) and administrative and support service activities (12.4%). Within the latter, almost a third Figure 21: Minimum wage and the number of minimum wage earners -Average minimum wage -Minimum wage -statutory amount -----Minimum wage -transitional amount* 900 850 800 1= 750 !5 700 E 650 550 500 -Minimum-wage earners (3-month moving average, right axis) 60 50 j: "g 20 10 ii Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. Note: *The lowest statutory amount. 12 In compliance with the Minimum Wage Act (OG RS, No.13/2010), the minimum wage was adjusted in line with year-on-year consumer price growth in December 2013 relative to December 2012 (0.7%). 40 30 600 0 Table 7: Earnings by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2013 I 2014 2013/2012 I 14 / XII13 I 14/I 13 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,473.47 1,490.86 0.7 -0.6 1.4 Industry (B-E) 1,482.76 1,521.51 2.6 1.4 3.3 - of which manufacturing 1,436.53 1,480.77 2.8 2.2 4.0 Construction 1,188.38 1,182.88 -1.4 -0.1 -1.4 Traditional services (G-I) 1,355.65 1,359.77 0.1 -1.9 0.9 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,691.40 1,695.09 -1.3 -2.1 -0.3 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,670.91 1,663.54 -2.3 -0.9 -1.2 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,727.19 1,727.34 -1.4 0.2 -1.5 - Education 1,621.86 1,616.49 -3.3 -0.5 -0.8 - Human health and social work activities 1,677.78 1,661.32 -2.0 -2.5 -1.3 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. of employees receive the minimum wage. The proportion of employees earning the minimum wage is also high in accommodation and food service activities, construction and other service activities,13 where it hovers between 14% and 17%. Prices After a modest increase in February, consumer prices recorded stronger growth in March. The stronger monthly growth (0.8%; in February 0.1%) was driven primarily by seasonally higher prices of clothing and footwear (0.8 percentage points), which also contributed to higher year-on-year growth (0.2 percentage points), which remains marked by higher prices of services (0.6 percentage points). Relative to March 2013, prices went up 0.6%; euro area inflation stood at 0.5% according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Figure 22: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area ;; 3 -Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation -Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation -r- o o ^ According to detailed data by SURS, the modest price growth in February14 was mainly due to lower prices of energy products. Year-on-year growth slowed significantly compared with January (by 0.7 percentage points to 0.1%), in addition to prices of durable and semi-durable goods (-0.4 percentage points) also as a result of energy prices (-0.5 percentage points). Given their relatively larger share in the structure of total household consumption in Slovenia, the contribution of energy prices to inflation was larger than in the euro area. Electricity prices were down (-0.1 percentage points),15 as were prices of liquid fuels (-0.4 percentage points), which declined more notably relative to the previous year due to a year-on-year decline in euro prices of oil on global markets (-8.3%). Prices of services and food were higher, by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, their contribution being more or less Figure 23: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation 4 ^^ 2 (D 1 d o ^^ 0 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: Eurostat 3 According to SKD2008, S activities. 14 Detailed data on inflation in March will be released later and commented upon in the next SEM. 15 The contribution of lower electricity prices declined by 0.4 percentage points relative to the previous month in the absence of the one-off effect (the increase in the contribution to support the production of electricity from RES in February last year). 8 7 6 8 7 6 5 4 -1 2 2 0 -1 Table 8: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - February 2014 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP -0.6 100.0 -0.6 -0.8 100.0 -0.8 Goods -1.4 64.8 -0.9 -1.5 57.2 -0.9 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco -0.2 16.1 0.0 0.4 12.3 0.0 Non-processed food 2.3 7.5 0.2 0.1 7.5 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods -3.3 26.4 -0.9 -3.5 26.7 -0.9 Durables -0.1 8.7 0.0 -0.1 8.4 0.0 Non-durables 0.4 8.5 0.0 0.4 8.1 0.0 Semi-durables -9.6 9.2 -0.9 -9.1 10.2 -0.9 Energy -1.2 14.7 -0.2 0.1 10.8 0.0 Electricity for households -2.7 2.8 -0.1 1.5 2.7 0.0 Natural gas 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 0.1 1.3 0.0 -1.2 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -0.3 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 District heating -0.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants -1.4 7.6 -0.1 -0.6 4.8 0.0 Services 0.9 35.2 0.3 0.1 42.8 0.0 Services - dwellings 0.9 3.2 0.0 0.6 10.5 0.1 Services - transport 1.5 6.2 0.1 0.1 7.3 0.0 Services - communications -0.5 3.6 0.0 -0.5 3.1 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.1 14.3 0.0 -0.3 14.7 0.0 Services - other services 2.5 8.0 0.2 0.8 7.2 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -0.7 77.8 -0.5 -1.0 81.7 -0.8 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification unchanged since the end of last year. The movement of core inflation remains moderate under the impact of modest demand. Amid a decline in commodity prices on global markets and weak demand, euro area inflation remained low in Figure 24: Contribution of selected groups to year-on-year inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area (HICP) -February 2014 ■ Slovenia HEuro area 0.8 :!5 ä o 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.6 Inflation Processed Non- Energy Services Other* food, processed alcohol, food tobacco Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, etc. February (0.7%). Price growth in euro area countries is, as in Slovenia, mainly a result of weak economic activity and the absence of price shocks from commodity markets, which is mainly reflected in modest growth in prices of processed and non-processed food (0.3 percentage points) and lower energy prices (-0.2 percentage points). Price growth in the euro area was also underpinned by higher prices of services (0.6 percentage points) and other (particularly semi-durable) goods (0.1 percentage points). The year-on-year decline in industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets deepened in February. Domestic producer prices on the domestic market declined by 0.8 percentage points (to -1.1%) year-on-year relative to January. Alongside lower prices in the manufacture of food products (-0.9%), the decline was again a result of lower prices in the manufacture of metals (-3.1%) and ICT and electrical equipment (-1.3%), which also contributed to the decline in foreign markets (-0.9%). Import prices were down again year-on-year in February (-2.0%). As in the past six months, prices of imported goods were down year-on-year in February, again mainly as a result of lower prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-4.7%). Figure 25: Movements of domestic producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals,fabric.metal prod.,ex. mach.,equip.(domestic) ---------Mfr. of food products; beverages;tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign market) 20 16 12 8 -jf Is 4 CD 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 Source: SURS. January's surplus in merchandise trade was a result of higher exports to the EU and lower imports from both EU and non-EU countries relative to the same period last year. The less favourable services trade position in year-on-year terms was primarily a result of trade in the group of other services (all services other than transport and travel). The surplus of trade in intermediation and services related to trade was much lower.16 The trade deficit in administrative and support service activities, professional and technical services was wider than in January 2013. The year-on-year increase in the deficit in factor income was underpinned by net payments of interest as a result of the rapid borrowing of the government sector. Net interest payments of the private sector on loans taken out abroad were somewhat lower year-on-year due to deleveraging and relatively lower interest rates. Total net payments of interest abroad stood at EUR 53.4 m in January (36.1 m in January 2013). The widening of the deficit in current transfers was mainly a result of lower absorption of EU funds; the deficit in private sector transfers was also somewhat higher. Balance of payments The current account surplus, having been lower year-on-year in the final quarter of 2013 due to the stabilisation of domestic consumption, was up year-on-year again in January. January's surplus in current transactions (EUR 105.2 m) was largely a result of the surplus in merchandise trade (last year, a deficit). The surplus in the balance of services narrowed year-on-year, while the deficits in factor income and current transfers widened. International financial transactions17 recorded a net outflow again in January. The net capital outflow of the private sector exceeded the net capital outflows of the central bank and the government sector. Most of the net capital outflow of the private sector was realised through the banking sector. Commercial banks increased deposits in foreign accounts and continued to deleverage at a modest pace, while non-residents continued to withdraw deposits from Slovenian banks. Enterprises repaid a portion of short-term trade credits taken out to finance imports of goods and services. The net capital inflow The surplus in external trade was up again year-on-year in January due to a larger surplus in merchandise trade. Figure 26: Components of the current account of the balance of payments 400 100 0 Öu -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 ■ Merchandise trade ■ Factor income -Current account Services trade ■ Current transfers ^ rN rN m 8B Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 27: Financial transactions of the balance of payments ^^■Government sector ^HBank of Slovenia ^^■Private sector -Net financial flow 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 ?S ?S 55 55 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 16 All payments related to monetary intermediation, commission for other financial intermediation services and other costs. 17 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. 300 200 0 of the government sector derived from the sale of debt securities to foreign investors.18 The Bank of Slovenia increased its liabilities to the Eurosystem by EUR 308.6 m in January relative to December, mainly due to the inflow of all other transactions (EUR 181.6 m). The liabilities of the Bank of Slovenia to the Eurosystem related to monetary policy instruments19 increased by EUR 127.0 m. The banks otherwise repaid a portion of liabilities from longer-term refinancing operations (EUR 310.0 m), but they also reduced, even more, their reserves at the Bank of Slovenia (EUR 437.0 m). Table 9: Balance of payments I 14, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I 13 Current account 2,397.3 2,292.1 105.2 64.2 - Trade balance (FOB) 1,862.4 1,783.8 78.6 -50.0 - Services 390.0 268.9 121.1 169.8 - Income 66.9 113.4 -46.5 -25.4 Current transfers 78.0 126.0 -48.0 -30.2 Capital and financial account 285.3 -363.8 -78.5 -397.4 - Capital account 23.8 -22.6 1.2 -0.5 - Capital transfers 16.8 -19.0 -2.2 -0.5 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 6.9 -3.6 3.4 0.0 - Financial account 261.6 -341.2 -79.6 -396.8 - Direct investment 35.5 -34.4 1.0 51.5 - Portfolio investment 214.0 200.4 414.3 -155.6 - Financial derivates 12.1 -2.9 9.3 -33.7 - Other investment 0.0 -442.3 -442.3 -281.3 - Assets 0.0 -466.0 -466.0 -336.5 - Liabilities 0.0 23.7 23.7 55.2 - Reserve assets 0.0 -62.0 -62.0 22.3 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -26.7 -26.7 333.2 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Financial markets After the moderation in January, loans to domestic nonbanking sectors declined more notably again, recording similar movements as before the beginning of the banking system restructuring. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors decreased by EUR 176 bn, the main factor in the decline being further corporate and NFI deleveraging while household loans also continued to decline. In the first two months the volume of loans to 18 The government sold treasury bills in the amount of EUR 123.9 m, and bonds and notes in the amount of EUR 81 m. 19 Typical monetary policy operations related to the Eurosystem are claims (loans) and liabilities of the BS to domestic monetary sectors (overnight deposits). Loans that are used to add liquidity are mainly realised by long-term financing, and partly with main refinancing. Overnight deposits include minimum reserves, deposit facility and other liabilities of credit institutions. domestic non-banking sectors declined by more than EUR 200 m. Continuing to deleverage abroad, the banks also significantly reduced their liabilities to the ECB, for the third month in a row. Household and government deposits rose again in February. The contraction of household loans continues. Household repayments amounted to EUR 30 m in February, around a quarter less than in January. After more than two years of continuing decline, consumer loans rose by EUR 7.5 m. Housing loans and loans for other purposes continue to fall. In the first two months household loans at domestic banks decreased by around EUR 68 m. In February corporate and NFI loans declined by around EUR 150 m. Three quarters of the decline was a result of deleveraging by enterprises, which are still mainly repaying loans for other purposes. NFI loans also declined more notably in February relative to the previous year. In the first two months the volume of corporate and NFI loans declined by around EUR 140 m. Figure 28: Increase in household, corporate and NFI and government loans ^HHousehold^ Enterprises and NFI^ ^^HGovernment -Total 700 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 0 m -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Corporate borrowing abroad was up slightly again in January. Net flows were the highest since last April, at EUR 77.5 m. Almost the entire amount of new net borrowing (more than 98%) was a result of net borrowing in short-term loans. At the beginning of the year the differences in interest rates for corporate loans20 declined substantially, by more than 50 basis points to below 170 basis points. In our assessment this decline was mainly attributable to the beginning of the banking system stabilisation. As the gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates remain significant, creditworthy enterprises are increasingly borrowing abroad. 20 Interest rates for loans over EUR 1 m with a variable, or up to one year with a fixed initial interest rate. Table 10: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 13 28. II 14 28. II 14/31. I 14 28. II 14/31. XII 13 28. II 14/28. II 13 Loans total 26,176.0 25,972.3 -0.7 -0.8 -16.5 Enterprises and NFI 15,594.8 15,455.3 -0.9 -0.9 -23.6 Government 1,664.0 1,667.6 0.1 0.2 -4.0 Households 8,917.3 8,849.4 -0.3 -0.8 -3.4 Consumer credits 2,213.4 2,212.3 0.3 -0.1 -9.1 Lending for house purchase 5,306.5 5,291.9 -0.1 -0.3 1.0 Other lending 1,397.3 1,345.2 -2.3 -3.7 -9.6 Bank deposits total 14,588.1 14,903.8 1.1 2.2 -2.1 Overnight deposits 6,446.6 6,628.2 2.4 2.8 2.6 Short-term deposits 3,681.9 3,703.5 0.3 0.6 -9.9 Long-term deposits 4,456.1 4,568.2 0.1 2.5 -1.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.5 3.9 2.3 10.2 -43.4 Mutual funds 1,854.6 1,864.6 2.2 0.5 0.3 Government bank deposits, total 1,284.1 1,719.0 16.6 33.9 -39.0 Overnight deposits 22.9 353.1 89.0 1,442.6 -54.9 Short-term deposits 512.8 725.7 38.2 41.5 37.1 Long-term deposits 738.5 635.8 -14.7 -13.9 -57.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.8 4.4 -73.5 -55.5 1.9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^■Long-term loans (left axis) ^^■Short-term loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 700 -^-^-^-,-^- 550 600 500 400 300 E 200 cc IE 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 500 450 400 350 300 ^^ 250 j= 200 150 100 50 0 Figure 30: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of Slovenian banks 2,000 -1- 1,500 1,000 -1,000 -1,500 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. oooo«— «—«—«—«—«— «— C-:= C-:= c-:^ C-:= C rz C tü —^ —^ tü —^ tü —^ tü —^ tü Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Bank deleveraging abroad rose slightly again in January relative to the end of the year. Banks repaid EUR 136.3 m net in foreign liabilities in January. Almost two thirds of the net outflow of foreign funding was accounted for by a net outflow of foreign deposits, the rest being repayments of long-term loans. The stock of household and government deposits rose again in February. Household deposits at banks were up EUR 167 m, the largest increase since May 2011. More than 90% of the increase came from higher overnight deposits, in our assessment also as a consequence of the disbursement of the first portion of deferred payments of the third quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities. In the first two months household deposits rose by around EUR 315 m, which we estimate is also a result of greater confidence of households in Slovenian banks after the beginning of the banking system stabilisation. Government deposits also rose in February, due to further borrowing via issues of bonds and treasury bills. The 500 0 -500 Box3: A comparison of two methodologies for monitoring the amount of bad claims Figure 31: Movement of the amounts of C-, D- and E-rated claims, and claims that are more than 90 days in arrears -More than 90 days in arrears -Rated C, D, E —!—!-!-!-!-r- —!-!-!-!-!-r- —T-!-!-!-!-r- The amount of bad claims can be monitored according to two different methodologies. In times of a financial crisis, the amount of bad claims is one of the main indicators of the situation in the banking system. According to internationally comparable data, claims are considered bad if they are more than 90 days past due, while IMAD (because of higher availability of data) regards C, D and E-rated claims as bad claims, i.e., the claims with the share of impairments exceeding 15%. A comparison of the volumes of bad claims according to the two methodologies shows fairly similar movements in the past. The difference between the two methodologies occurred after August 2013, when the volume of bad claims measured with regard to credit ratings increased further, while the volume of bad claims that are more than 90 days overdue stopped rising. In the period from September 2013 the asset quality review and stress tests had been underway, which showed that the banks often overvalued collateral taken into account in granting loans. This was reflected in an increase in the volume of claims rated C, D and E, and a decline in the quality of the banks' assets, because of which the banks had to increase provisions and impairments. The differences between the two methodologies were most visible at the end of last year, when the amount of claims in arrears for more than 90 days declined by EUR 2.2 bn due to the transfer of claims to the BAMC. The amount of bad claims classified by credit ratings declined by around EUR 400 m, as the banks impaired all assets with overvalued collateral after the release of stress test results and the asset quality review. Alongside claims that are more than 90 days past due, claims in the C, D and E categories now also include claims with lower or inadequate collateral, which are not overdue, or are less than 90 days overdue, but pose a greater risk of further losses in the banking system should their arrears increase due to deteriorated economic conditions. The situation in the Slovenian banking system remains adverse in our estimation. The proportion and the amount of claims that are more than 90 days overdue otherwise declined slightly again in January, but at the same time the total amount of arrears rose by more than EUR 250 m, reaching EUR 7.2 bn at the end of the month, which is 17.3% of the banking system's total exposure. The proportion of bad claims rated C, D and E declined by more than EUR 130 m in January, to EUR 8.1 bn. ■J ij Source: BS. C3 increase was modest, at EUR 245 m, as the government deposited most of the proceeds in the account at the Bank of Slovenia. The government increased short-term and overnight deposits at banks. In the first two months government deposits were up around EUR 435 m. The yield to maturity of the 10-year euro bond and the spread with respect to the German bond declined in March. The yield to maturity (3.84%) and the spread with regard to the German bond (234 basis points) declined by over 40 basis points. After a temporary interruption at the end of January and the beginning of February due to emerging markets turbulence, the yield trend decline continued after the issue of the new 5-year and 10-year bonds in the middle of February. The falling got momentum in the last week of March, before the issuance of 3-year and 7-year bonds on the euro market at the beginning of April. Figure 32: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond ^ o -a -Q 3 < - C3 i? D Source: Bloomberg. 7 6 5 4 2 Public finance The general government's deficit was EUR 209 m in January, which is 24.8% lower than that in the same month of the previous year.21 The lower deficit is explained by higher revenue (4,0%) and lower expenditure (-1.5%.). The accumulated deficit over the past twelve-month period ending January 2014 was EUR 1.5 bn and it remained higher compared with the accumulated deficit over the same period one year earlier (up EUR 0.4 bn). This higher deficit is explained by improving but still lower revenue (-EUR 0.2 Bn.), and by higher and increasing expenditure (EUR 0.2 bn). The higher revenue in the month of January 2014 (year-on year) is explained by the increase in all main revenue categories with the exception of EU funds. The largest contribution to positive revenue performance came from tax revenues (up 8.2% year-on-year), with the exception of revenue from excise duties (down 3.0%). The largest contributor to the increase in tax revenues Table 11: Taxes and social security contributions Figure 33: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 17.0 -General government revenue (total) -General government expediture (total) Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I 2014 I 2014/I 2013 I 2013 I 2014 General government revenue - total 1,230.7 4.0 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 40.7 16.0 2.9 3.3 Personal income tax 166.5 1.1 14.0 13.5 Value added tax 309.3 11.2 21.2 25.1 Excise duties 120.2 -3.0 8.1 9.8 Social security contributions 430.5 1.4 36.3 35.0 Other general government revenues 163.4 4.5 17.5 13.3 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 12: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2012 2013 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I 14, EUR m I 14/I 13 Revenue - total 14,725.1 41.7 -1.8 1,230.7 4.0 - Tax revenues 12,647.9 35.9 -3.6 1,135.8 5.5 - Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 6.1 -19.5 207.0 3.5 - Social security contributions 5,127.2 14.5 -2.2 430.5 1.4 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 5,027.3 14.3 3.1 478.9 9.3 - Receipts from the EU budget 938.2 2.7 11.0 27.4 -42.9 Expenditure - total 16,282.7 46.2 1.0 1,439.7 -1.5 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,617.0 10.3 -3.0 300.0 -8.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,237.4 6.3 -5.7 175.8 -10.8 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 840.1 2.4 29.7 141.9 6.4 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,343.0 18.0 -0.6 514.9 -2.2 - Capital expenditure 1,030.8 2.9 12.7 68.5 38.5 - Capital transfers 319.0 0.9 -0.3 1.7 -86.3 - Payment to the EU budget 425.5 1.2 9.0 47.7 -7.1 Deficit -1,557.6 -4.4 38.3 -209.0 -24.8 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. 21 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. Box 4: Main aggregates of the general government sector, ESA95 The general government deficit in 2013 was the highest thus far; excluding the one-off factors it was the lowest since 2008. The total deficit accounted for 14.7% of GDP and was mainly a result of specific one-off transactions related to the recapitalisation of the banking system (10.3% of GDP). The deficit without one-off transactions including expenditure for the third quarter of funds paid to eliminate wage disparities in the public sector (0.3% GDP) and compensation to persons erased from public records (0.4% of GDP)1 totalled 3.7% of GDP, which is lower than in the previous year (-0.1 percentage points), and the lowest since the beginning of the economic crisis. The primary balance2 without one-off transactions was negative (-1.1% of GDP) and also lower than in 2012 (-1.7% of GDP). In 2013 general government revenue rose slightly, mainly on account of measures to increase tax revenue and the highest absorption of EU funds thus far. Revenue increased by EUR 95 m and accounted for 44.7% of GDP (0.3 percentage points more than a year earlier). The increase was partly a result of tax system changes (an increase in VAT rates, introduction of taxes on bank transactions and lottery and a full-year effect of the increase in the CO2 tax passed Figure 34: General government deficit 1 Deficit ■ Deficit without financial crisis expenditure* ■ Deficit without financ.crisis expenditure and other one-off events in 2013** 0 -1,000 -2,000 i -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 ■■■■■■i" .......I" Source: SURS. Notes: *without bank recapitalisations, **without wage settlement and compensation to persons erased from public records. in 2012)3 and greater efforts to improve tax collection. Total revenue from taxes thus rose by 0.4% of GDP last year; some revenues from taxes declined, most notably revenue from personal income tax (-7.7%) after it more or less stagnated in the previous year. Revenue from corporate income tax, whose rate was reduced to 17% last year, was only slightly lower than a year earlier (-0.4%), but much lower compared with 2011 (-27.1% or 0.4% of GDP). Social security contributions fell further in 2013, by 1.9% (in 2012: -0.8%). The absorption of EU funds that are used by institutional units of the government sector increased substantially in 2013 (27.9%) and was the highest thus far. After the increase in 2012 (6.2%) non-tax revenues declined last year (-2.7%). Table 13: Revenue, expenditure and balance, and general government 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total general government revenue 43.6 43.5 44.4 44.7 Total general government expenditure 49.5 49.9 48.4 59.4 General government deficit -5.9 -6.4 -4 -14.7 General government deficit excluding one-off factors* - -5.7 -3.8 -3.7 Central government -5.3 -6.4 -3.8 -14.5 Local government -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 Social security funds -0.4 0 -0.3 0 Consolidated general government debt, at the end of the year 38.7 47.1 54.4 71.7 Source: SURS. Note: * Excluding the costs related to the financial crisis (bank recapitalisations) and in 2013, wage settlement and compensation to persons erased from public records. As a result of one-off transactions, general government expenditure reached a record high in 2013 (59.4% of GDP); without these transactions it was only slightly higher than in 2012 in nominal terms (0.3% or EUR 57 m). Expenditure without one-off transactions rose by 0.3% (from 48.2% to 48.4% of GDP) after a strong reduction in the previous year (-4.3%). Primary expenditure (excluding interest expenditure) continued to decline, but at a much slower pace (from -4.8% to -0.6%). The dynamics of total expenditure without one-off transactions in 2013 reflect a policy mix that pursued consolidation by reducing compensation of employees (-3.7% or EUR 168 m), intermediate consumption (-3.6% or EUR 88 m) and social transfers excluding pensions, and stimulated economic activity by increasing gross capital formation (12.8% or EUR 148 m). In addition to gross capital formation, in 2013 the major drivers of the increase in expenditure were interest payments (20.6% or EUR 157 m) and pension expenditure (EUR 106 m), which are increasingly crowding out other spending needs. Last year's increase in general government debt was the largest thus far, which was to a large extent attributable to bank recapitalisation. General government debt rose by EUR 6.1 bn last year, reaching EUR 25.3 bn or 71.7% of GDP. The debt increased due to deficit financing, while most of the increase was a result of bank recapitalisations (10.3% of GDP) and the issue of the bond for the Bank Asset Management Company (2.9% of GDP). 1 One-off obligations of the government due in 2013 based on court decisions and government regulations adopted in 2013, which is in line with the ESA methodology (on an accrual basis). 2 Without interest. 3 At the time of adoption the effects of these tax changes were estimated at around 0.6% of GDP. was VAT revenue (11.2%), followed by corporate income tax revenue, which registered a positive growth rate (16%) after 18 months of consecutive negative rates, and personal income tax (1.1%), which had registered a negative growth rate in 2013. Non-tax revenues were up 15.5% and social security contributions up 1.4%. The amount of EU funds withdrawn declined in January (-42.9%, year-on-year) after a strong performance in December 2013. The decrease in expenditure in January compared with one year earlier is explained by the reduction in the wage bill (-21,0%), purchases of goods and services (-10.8%), transfers to individuals and households (-2.2%) and investment transfers (-86%). The main factors offsetting the reduction in expenditure include higher expenditures on subsidies (27.0%), investments (38.5%) and interest payments (6.4%). Social transfers declined in January compared with one year earlier across all categories with the exception of those related to pensions and social security. The most important reductions in social transfers concern sickness benefits, family benefits and parental compensation and scholarships.22 Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was negative in February (-EUR 30.0 m). Slovenia received EUR 51.6 m from, and paid EUR 81.7 m into the EU budget, which is double the amount of its average monthly payments to the EU. As a result of increased expenditure for the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund, the European Commission has a right to call on the Member States to pay triple the amount of their average monthly payments to the EU budget at the beginning of the year. The Commission therefore called for nearly three-times the average monthly contributions from VAT (EUR 12.2 m), GNI-based resources (EUR 60.1 m) and corrections to the benefit of the UK (EUR 5.4 m). The next monthly payments to the EU budget will be proportionally lower than one twelfth, as the payments of obligations for the first two months have already covered more than a quarter of what Slovenia has to pay to the EU budget this year. In February the bulk of receipts came from Structural Funds (EUR 26.0 m); of which the majority from the European Fund for Regional Development (EUR 18.9 m). Slovenia received EUR 11.9 m from the Cohesion Fund, and EUR 12.6 m under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies. In the first two months of 2014 Slovenia received EUR 78.9 m from the EU budget (6.6% of the level envisaged for 2014), and paid EUR 129.4 m to the EU budget (32.6% of the level anticipated for 2014). Its net budgetary position in the first two months of this year was negative (-EUR 50.4 m; last year: -EUR 26.4 m). Figure 35: Receipts from the EU budget in 2013 and 2014 ■ Total receipts in 2014 (January-February) ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-December) Other Common Agricultural Policy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Figure 36: Planned and absorbed EU funds, 2013 and 2014 ■Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2014 ■Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2013 Other Common Agricultural Policy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 In % Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 22 Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or from reserves. X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spring forecast 2014 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -7.9 1.3 0.7 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 35,420 35,485 36,150 35,319 35,275 35,634 36,255 37,219 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,349 17,320 17,610 17,172 17,128 17,270 17,551 18,001 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,200 20,600 21,200 21,400 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 86 84 84 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,823 35,028 35,759 34,931 35,069 34,916 35,353 36,253 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,519 34,875 35,680 34,721 34,796 35,004 35,396 36,149 Rate of registered unemployment 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.6 13.5 13.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) -6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 Inflation,2 year average 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 1.1 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -16.1 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 Exports of goods -16.6 12.0 8.2 -0.1 2.9 4.6 5.2 5.5 Exports of services -14.0 3.5 1.9 3.7 2.6 2.6 3.3 4.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -19.2 7.4 5.6 -4.7 1.3 3.5 5.2 5.3 Imports of goods -20.2 8.3 6.6 -5.1 1.5 3.6 5.5 5.6 Imports of services -12.4 2.6 -0.6 -2.2 -0.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -173 -50 146 1,159 2,279 2,442 2,338 2,328 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.5 -0.1 0.4 3.3 6.5 6.9 6.4 6.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 40,318 40,723 40,100 40,849 39,566 40.049* As a per cent share relative to GDP 113.8 114.8 110.9 115.7 112.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.365 1.366 1.366 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.1 1.5 0.8 -4.8 -2.7 -0.4 0.7 1.8 As a % of GDP4 54.8 56.4 56.8 56.3 56.0 55.2 55.1 55.3 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.5 1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.2 19.9 19.5 19.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -23.8 -15.3 -5.5 -8.2 0.2 -0.5 1.0 0.0 As a % of GDP4 23.1 19.7 18.6 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.8 17.7 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2014). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. 2Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End January 2014. PRODUCTION 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 1.3 -1.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.3 -1.3 -0.5 2.2 3.3 -3.6 2.2 -3.9 B Mining and quarrying -7.9 -7.4 1.3 -8.7 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 6.7 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -11.4 -22.0 -8.2 9.8 C Manufacturing 1.1 -2.3 -1.0 -4.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.6 -1.5 -0.8 1.9 1.9 -4.2 1.9 -5.5 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 5.0 10.5 3.6 4.0 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.3 3.2 2.7 16.3 5.3 5.6 9.4 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -24.8 -16.8 -2.9 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -3.5 21.4 -24.3 -3.1 -13.5 -23.8 Buildings -39.7 -17.3 -20.4 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -16.7 5.3 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 Civil engineering -15.3 -16.6 5.7 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 1.5 25.2 -22.8 -22.0 -18.6 -26.5 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 3.2 -3.4 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.9 -1.8 3.9 Tonne-km in rail transport 9.7 -7.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 13.4 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.3 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.2 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -2.7 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 7.0 -6.3 4.7 -2.0 -2.8 -7.2 -10.1 -5.3 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.5 -3.5 -4.7 -5.0 -8.8 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.0 0.8 -0.2 3.4 3.8 -0.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.5 3.8 -0.8 0.0 0.4 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 5.3 1.2 0.3 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 0.5 -4.9 -3.4 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 9.1 5.6 2.8 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 3.7 -1.1 -1.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.0 0.6 3.1 -3.6 1.4 -0.9 2.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.9 480.4 478.4 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -7 -17 -13 -10 -12 -16 -19 -20 -15 -14 -12 -12 -12 -12 -16 -15 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 -11 -6 -7 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -6 -4 -3 -6 -8 -10 -10 - in construction -46 -41 -22 -42 -41 -44 -39 -39 -30 -22 -18 -18 -39 -40 -45 -44 - in services 1 -12 -12 -3 -8 -8 -14 -18 -12 -12 -11 -12 -9 -5 -8 -7 - in retail trade 8 2 2 14 5 4 1 -4 -3 2 6 1 9 5 8 1 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -35 -33 -23 -27 -36 -39 -36 -29 -34 -34 -35 -26 -27 -39 -33 Source of data: SURS. Note: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2012 2013 2014 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 -2.6 3.6 3.1 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 0.3 -0.5 -6.3 3.1 -2.0 -4.8 1.9 -5.3 1.3 -0.8 0.5 8.0 4.1 - -7.0 -5.7 1.4 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -11.6 9.9 23.2 -4.0 -11.0 -13.7 2.4 -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 6.0 74.1 31.1 -4.9 1.8 1.6 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 -0.9 -0.6 -8.5 2.9 -2.3 -5.0 1.9 -6.2 1.3 -1.5 0.6 7.9 3.1 24.0 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -2.4 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 4.2 9.8 - -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -5.3 -6.2 27.3 30.4 4.5 42.9 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -19.6 -11.7 11.2 3.0 1.0 11.2 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.2 -5.8 30.5 40.1 3.3 59.6 - - - - - - - - - - -3.7 -0.6 -3.7 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 -4.9 -8.6 -7.7 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.4 -3.4 1.3 2.2 2.7 4.7 2.8 - -1.6 -0.6 -0.8 -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.6 -4.0 -1.0 -1.4 0.3 -0.3 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.3 15.8 9.0 -2.2 7.2 2.8 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.2 1.6 9.9 4.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 - 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -3.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.1 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.5 1.4 4.1 1.0 4.1 3.8 35.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 38.4 - - -18 -18 -19 -21 -22 -21 -17 -16 -16 -13 -14 -14 -13 -13 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -9 -9 -6 -13 -12 -15 -16 -15 -14 -10 -11 -8 -8 -9 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 1 -44 -40 -37 -40 -42 -40 -35 -30 -30 -31 -27 -20 -20 -22 -15 -16 -17 -17 -19 -16 -17 -9 -10 -11 -14 -16 -19 -19 -15 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -13 -13 -10 -12 -5 -6 -3 4 -2 -2 8 -7 -5 0 2 -9 -3 -5 -5 16 16 0 3 13 -6 -3 9 1 2 -36 -36 -36 -45 -38 -37 -34 -31 -31 -26 -27 -37 -38 -37 -33 -31 -35 -35 -34 -30 -30 -28 LABOUR MARKET 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.7 920.2 913.4 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 824.0 810.0 793.6 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 812.0 814.5 816.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.8 37.0 38.2 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 35.1 35.3 37.7 In industry, construction 272.9 263.1 252.2 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 264.7 266.1 266.6 Of which: in manufacturing 184.8 182.9 177.7 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 184.6 184.6 184.4 in construction 67.8 59.8 54.3 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 59.9 61.0 61.7 In services 512.3 510.0 503.2 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 512.2 513.1 512.6 Of which: in public administration 51.4 50.7 49.1 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 50.9 50.9 51.1 in education, health-services, social work 118.8 120.9 121.0 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 120.8 121.5 121.6 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 729.1 717.0 698.7 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 720.3 722.7 723.0 In enterprises and organisations 671.8 662.6 647.6 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 666.1 667.9 667.7 By those self-employed 57.2 54.5 51.1 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 54.2 54.8 55.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 93.0 94.9 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 91.8 91.8 93.9 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.7 110.2 119.8 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 115.0 110.9 109.1 Female 52.1 52.2 57.4 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 53.4 52.0 51.7 By age: under 26 12.9 11.9 13.8 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 12.3 15.6 12.9 12.0 11.4 aged over 50 39.0 38.2 38.9 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.4 38.6 38.5 Osnovnošolska izobrazba ali manj 34.1 33.3 34.2 33.9 35.2 32.9 31.8 33.2 36.5 34.1 32.6 33.6 35.8 34.4 33.6 For more than 1 year 50.2 55.2 54.9 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 55.7 57.3 56.3 55.4 Those receiving benefits 36.3 33.9 33.0 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 38.3 36.7 34.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.8 12.0 13.1 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 12.4 12.0 11.8 Male 11.4 11.5 12.5 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 12.1 11.6 11.3 Female 12.4 12.6 13.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 12.8 12.5 12.4 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 2.7 5.3 6.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.4 16.3 19.1 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 Redundancies 82.2 90.3 88.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 6.1 5.9 6.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 61.0 58.3 65.1 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 5.2 7.1 5.5 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.8 43.1 37.3 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 2.6 3.7 3.5 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.6 33.9 30.5 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 34.2 34.2 34.7 As % of labour force 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2012 2013 2014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 32.8 32.3 32.1 31.7 31.5 32.2 32.5 35.0 36.7 36.8 35.9 35.1 34.0 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.3 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 33.4 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 2.0 0.1 -0.2 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 2.0 0.7 1.0 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 -1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 B Mining and quarrying 3.8 3.7 -2.0 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 11.9 3.8 4.0 C Manufacturing 3.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.8 1.9 2.7 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.3 3.3 3.0 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 8.0 3.6 5.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities -0.1 0.1 0.7 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 2.8 0.5 0.4 F Constrution 2.0 -2.5 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.8 0.8 0.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.0 2.9 H Transportation and storage 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.8 2.0 1.5 I Accommodation and food service activities 2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 J Information and communication 0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 0.2 0.5 2.3 K Financial and insurance activities 0.6 1.1 0.2 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 8.4 3.8 -0.4 L Real estate activities 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4 -1.1 -2.4 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 N Administrative and support service activities 3.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 5.1 2.0 -0.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 0.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 P Education 0.2 -3.3 -3.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 Q Human health and social work activities -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 R Arts, entertainment and recreation -0.7 -2.8 -3.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 S Other service activities 0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -0.1 -1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 Real (deflator HICP) -1.0 -1.1 1.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.4 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 Real (deflator ULC) -2.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.0 -3.3 -3.6 -2.9 -2.7 -1.8 -1.2 USD/EUR 1.3917 1.2856 1.3282 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 2014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 PRICES 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.4 4.1 3.6 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5.7 6.5 7.0 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 Clothing and footwear -1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.6 3.8 3.1 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 Furnishings, household equipment 2.7 0.1 -1.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.6 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 Transport 1.0 3.3 0.3 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 Communications 1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 Recreation and culture -1.5 1.4 0.1 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 Education 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Catering services -6.8 4.5 6.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 HCPI 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.5 0.9 0.0 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 Domestic market 3.8 1.0 0.3 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 Non-domestic market 5.3 0.7 -0.2 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 euro area 6.1 0.1 -0.4 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 non-euro area 3.6 2.0 0.3 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 Import price indices 5.4 1.9 -0.4 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 10.9 12.7 0.2 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 12.0 13.8 14.7 11.8 Oil products 11.9 13.0 1.7 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 12.2 14.2 15.3 11.9 Transport & communications 1.1 1.6 11.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other controlled prices 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Direct control - total 2.8 9.2 1.2 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 9.5 10.6 11.1 9.0 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2012 2013 2014 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q^ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 3 4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 146 1,159 2,224 0 96 262 320 482 485 693 626 474 -23 -76 195 89 Goods1 -957 -110 632 -356 -149 -45 60 24 132 238 244 39 -115 -39 4 7 Exports 21,450 21,631 22,105 5,403 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,390 5,646 5,441 5,602 1,646 1,726 1,992 1,807 Imports 22,407 21,741 21,473 5,758 5,514 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,259 5,407 5,197 5,563 1,761 1,765 1,988 1,800 Services 1,476 1,803 2,004 375 418 444 528 414 505 541 574 393 152 106 161 148 Exports 4,842 5,166 5,422 1,217 1,118 1,237 1,502 1,310 1,211 1,326 1,559 1,327 377 325 417 392 Imports 3,365 3,363 3,418 841 700 793 974 896 706 785 985 934 225 219 256 244 Income -524 -552 -435 -81 -145 -168 -198 -42 -73 -108 -110 -118 -35 -41 -68 -44 Receipts 936 699 857 259 131 188 174 206 223 206 215 214 41 42 48 54 Expenditure 1,460 1,251 1,292 340 276 356 372 247 296 314 325 331 77 83 116 98 Current transfers 151 18 23 62 -28 31 -70 86 -79 22 -82 160 -25 -101 98 -23 Receipts 1,404 1,410 1,452 371 348 366 285 411 333 356 294 466 73 68 207 97 Expenditure 1,253 1,392 1,429 310 377 336 355 325 412 334 375 306 97 169 110 120 Capital and financial account -474 -1,206 -2,979 -175 67 -249 -540 -484 -879 -754 -840 -493 87 152 -172 -168 Capital account -85 -92 -37 -80 -24 11 -30 -49 -5 -40 -31 40 -4 -6 -14 24 Financial account -389 -1,114 -2,942 -94 91 -260 -511 -434 -874 -714 -809 -533 90 158 -158 -193 Direct investment 633 166 -555 151 146 98 84 -162 -62 -648 -11 177 -53 77 123 -92 Domestic abroad -85 212 -44 -156 41 127 39 5 -110 51 -2 6 -12 17 36 -6 Foreign in Slovenia 718 -46 -511 307 105 -29 45 -167 47 -700 -9 171 -41 60 87 -86 Portfolio investment 1,839 -218 3,981 -20 -923 124 -982 1,564 131 2,100 -424 2,138 221 -820 -324 76 Financial derivatives -155 -203 -453 -24 -23 -21 -31 -129 23 -224 -117 -133 0 9 -31 -6 Other investment -2,777 -890 -5,910 -221 851 -455 439 -1,726 -1,033 -1,922 -174 -2,745 -10 834 27 -171 Assets -1,490 -1,474 -1,907 567 -1,466 -95 205 -118 -1,284 -635 141 -151 -612 102 -956 -383 Commercial credits -49 65 -35 316 -347 -35 109 339 -364 -50 91 267 -86 -85 -176 24 Loans -55 -319 -20 19 3 -95 84 -310 25 -180 89 43 22 128 -147 -153 Currency and deposits -1,341 -1,177 -1,699 249 -1,131 11 -33 -24 -928 -332 -46 -391 -544 42 -629 -258 Other assets -46 -45 -153 -18 10 24 45 -124 -17 -73 7 -70 -3 17 -4 4 Liabilities -1,287 584 -4,003 -788 2,317 -359 234 -1,608 251 -1,287 -315 -2,594 602 732 983 212 Commercial credits 107 265 -146 17 161 136 -96 63 -300 93 -200 264 -79 147 93 -16 Loans -1,234 -729 441 -752 -121 -223 -178 -208 374 602 -530 48 77 -211 14 103 Deposits -169 1,026 -4,246 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 550 833 904 115 Other liabilities 9 23 -52 3 -11 17 -22 39 -12 -2 -15 -23 54 -36 -29 10 International reserves2 72 31 -5 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -83 30 -68 59 48 0 Statistical error 328 47 756 174 -163 -13 220 2 394 61 214 19 -64 -76 -23 80 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,042 2,112 2,136 540 477 569 514 552 517 525 522 572 144 159 175 183 Intermediate goods 12,008 12,138 12,522 2,931 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,078 3,182 3,139 3,123 957 996 1,110 1,009 Consumer goods 6,950 6,811 6,970 1,803 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,673 1,817 1,668 1,811 500 528 657 559 Import of investment goods 2,505 2,402 2,558 736 562 584 570 687 645 665 562 686 174 159 228 186 Intermediate goods 14,107 14,005 13,690 3,490 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,477 3,462 3,297 3,454 1,171 1,171 1,294 1,177 Consumer goods 5,943 5,671 5,949 1,524 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,394 1,488 1,480 1,587 447 456 533 449 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2012 2013 2014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 23 150 59 61 200 196 230 56 64 80 340 298 133 252 251 161 204 168 57 216 105 -31 -21 48 -73 84 43 98 -117 -50 58 124 135 -21 122 139 16 91 62 -13 -29 79 1,862 1,891 1,829 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,718 1,737 1,935 1,963 1,844 1,837 1,960 1,554 1,930 2,034 1,911 1,681 1,862 1,892 1,912 1,781 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,768 1,680 1,811 1,828 1,866 1,715 1,821 1,538 1,839 1,973 1,924 1,710 1,784 156 140 147 189 192 183 145 86 170 122 212 173 186 181 199 208 165 151 124 114 121 410 434 512 512 477 467 415 427 391 354 464 433 438 455 532 537 488 456 411 463 390 254 295 366 323 285 284 270 341 221 232 253 259 251 274 333 329 324 306 287 349 269 -99 -25 -110 -32 -56 -8 -14 -19 -25 -24 -23 -30 -44 -41 -39 -40 -41 -44 -42 -42 -47 63 72 54 55 65 58 59 88 75 73 77 69 69 68 75 69 70 70 69 74 67 162 97 164 87 121 66 73 108 100 97 100 99 112 109 113 109 111 114 112 116 113 -3 56 -25 -24 -21 -21 1 106 -30 -76 27 21 11 -10 -48 -23 -11 0 -11 172 -48 113 156 112 85 88 90 109 212 86 95 152 139 115 102 101 91 102 102 88 279 78 116 100 137 109 109 112 108 106 116 171 125 118 104 112 149 114 113 102 98 107 126 -162 81 -55 -243 -242 -384 -348 248 -397 -89 -393 -324 -153 -299 -232 -298 -318 -390 -98 13 -78 5 -18 9 -10 -29 -13 -40 3 -1 -5 0 0 -27 -13 4 -12 -23 10 -3 33 1 -167 100 -65 -233 -213 -372 -308 245 -397 -84 -393 -324 -127 -286 -236 -285 -295 -400 -95 -20 -80 144 45 87 -28 25 -45 31 -149 51 25 -138 -701 -3 31 44 -4 -56 295 -68 -31 1 53 80 13 43 -16 -6 42 -32 -8 -7 -94 -8 22 38 -4 -2 4 62 -12 -34 -34 91 -35 74 -71 41 -39 -11 -117 60 32 -45 -693 -25 -7 48 -1 -61 233 -56 3 35 133 -86 -644 -152 -187 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 270 -143 2,589 -346 -129 -90 -204 -24 1,823 374 414 -7 -7 -9 -3 -19 -44 -40 -44 -34 65 -8 -7 -67 -151 -84 -56 20 -59 -5 -69 9 -435 151 541 -46 -56 -1,982 -256 512 -281 -201 -551 510 -2,671 241 15 -138 -51 -613 -1,839 -330 -442 119 169 122 147 -64 -294 -422 597 -337 -374 -574 -218 -404 -11 -3 206 -62 -444 -131 444 -466 -32 -27 16 158 -65 -28 37 330 -62 -86 -217 -25 55 -80 -2 182 -90 -55 19 325 -32 -28 86 40 51 -8 17 -49 -277 4 8 13 -69 -68 -41 11 75 4 -34 -17 94 0 164 105 36 -77 8 -132 -406 514 -274 -297 -357 -55 -396 120 -11 -59 24 -287 -85 -21 -394 15 5 30 15 0 -151 -4 31 -5 1 -13 -69 6 -10 -1 8 0 -68 -48 47 -39 -554 -18 419 -193 8 -1,688 166 -85 55 172 23 728 -2,267 252 18 -344 11 -169 -1,708 -774 24 -72 224 -8 -144 56 6 18 40 -234 86 -152 -5 35 64 -127 -137 64 76 136 48 -269 -213 -114 -83 -62 -32 14 -194 -28 34 -151 492 675 -14 -59 -372 43 -201 12 -6 -11 22 -278 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 224 9 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 38 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -8 3 5 -31 46 -2 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -4 1 -6 35 -62 139 -231 -4 182 42 188 118 -304 333 9 53 26 20 47 -20 137 114 223 41 -228 -27 189 196 172 164 179 193 191 168 156 159 202 181 176 169 200 146 176 195 194 182 N/A 1,049 1,042 1,052 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 1,008 988 1,082 1,109 1,054 1,019 1,116 924 1,098 1,173 1,073 877 N/A 572 603 554 460 590 610 628 550 507 554 611 633 576 609 601 448 619 626 603 583 N/A 201 197 217 163 190 219 209 259 196 195 254 218 259 188 203 154 205 221 240 225 N/A 1,209 1,192 1,175 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,223 1,110 1,144 1,199 1,201 1,062 1,176 988 1,132 1,243 1,209 1,002 N/A 475 475 442 447 461 530 508 448 445 467 483 491 490 506 510 440 530 552 519 516 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 102 221 233 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 Central government (S. 1311) 4,299 5,057 6,563 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,805 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 584 610 581 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,454 9,267 8,917 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 20,876 19,470 14,903 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,488 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,229 2,135 1,764 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,445 5,194 5,020 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,237 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,692 34,558 29,620 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,422 In foreign currency 1,536 1,309 1,097 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 Securities, total 5,659 5,862 7,027 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 28,420 29,582 27,051 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 Overnight 8,245 8,678 8,558 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,633 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,868 7,056 6,689 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 With agreed maturity -long-term 12,248 13,780 11,569 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,851 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 59 68 235 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 Deposits in foreign currency, total 579 552 487 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 Overnight 386 372 324 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 With agreed maturity -short-term 133 123 91 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 With agreed maturity -long-term 59 56 72 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.15 2.31 1.86 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.46 5.48 5.40 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.69 5.32 3.86 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.75 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.39 0.57 0.22 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 6-month rates 1.64 0.83 0.34 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 6-month rates 0.18 0.15 - 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 2014 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,447 6,437 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,903 14,692 14,599 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,764 1,994 1,969 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,027 6,922 6,945 29,354 29,460 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 8,523 8,651 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.98 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.39 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 - - - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 6 1 7 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,982.3 14,999.1 14,725.1 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,077.2 1,269.3 1,188.8 Current revenues 14,037.9 14,030.6 13,634.7 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,646.1 1,153.8 1,120.0 Tax revenues 13,209.2 13,118.3 12,647.9 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,405.6 1,090.3 1,059.0 Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 2,656.6 2,137.4 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 279.9 91.6 Social security contributions 5,267.6 5,244.1 5,127.2 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 442.5 432.2 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 25.6 23.4 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 2.0 2.2 Taxes on property 215.2 233.9 253.5 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.3 26.9 26.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,856.2 4,876.1 5,027.3 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.4 332.7 496.8 Taxes on international trade & transactions 100.2 82.5 77.5 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 6.5 5.9 Other taxes 17.2 -0.6 1.5 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.0 -0.3 4.2 Non-tax revenues 828.7 912.3 986.8 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.8 185.7 322.8 240.5 63.6 60.9 Capital revenues 65.3 62.5 67.0 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 4.8 4.7 Grants 10.4 9.2 32.3 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.1 0.4 0.4 Transferred revenues 53.8 51.7 52.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 50.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 845.1 938.2 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.5 109.9 63.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,546.3 16,125.7 16,282.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,287.6 1,241.5 1,346.7 Current expenditures 6,926.7 6,813.5 6,836.4 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,677.8 525.2 530.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,882.7 3,727.7 3,617.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.6 328.5 323.3 Expenditures on goods and services 2,443.4 2,373.0 2,237.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 559.1 565.9 526.7 585.7 191.0 199.0 Interest payments 526.7 647.9 840.1 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 1.6 5.1 Reserves 73.9 64.9 141.9 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 20.8 43.6 4.1 2.5 Current transfers 7,818.9 7,687.0 7,671.1 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.4 613.0 697.0 Subsidies 496.3 502.7 519.3 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.4 28.8 14.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,533.5 6,384.2 6,343.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.3 527.4 611.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 737.2 741.0 734.4 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.5 54.2 67.3 Current transfers abroad 52.0 59.0 74.4 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 2.7 3.3 Capital expenditures 1,023.5 915.0 1,030.8 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.6 146.3 259.7 483.2 64.3 76.7 Capital transfers 372.1 319.9 319.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.1 19.8 23.5 Payments to the EU budget 405.1 390.3 425.5 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 19.1 19.5 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,564.1 -1,126.6 -1,557.6 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 2014 8 1 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1,234.9 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,183.0 1,143.6 1,093.2 1,187.0 1,133.7 1,174.3 1,290.1 1,204.9 1,238.2 1,275.2 1,201.0 1,601.0 1,230.7 1,189.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.5 1,072.7 981.5 1,107.7 1,060.8 1,124.5 1,225.5 1,159.5 1,125.9 1,210.9 1,144.3 1,290.9 1,198.2 1,107.5 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 1,064.0 1,142.4 1,067.1 1,196.1 1,135.8 210.5 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 191.2 187.8 190.0 229.1 207.0 446.0 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 418.9 420.1 427.8 469.7 430.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.7 26.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 29.8 19.9 35.7 14.8 6.8 414.2 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 421.6 512.7 408.8 485.0 478.9 5.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.1 5.0 3.0 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 -4.5 -5.8 -3.2 -10.0 6.0 82.4 53.6 67.6 67.0 170.7 54.0 117.5 66.2 61.2 63.9 60.6 164.5 96.4 61.9 68.5 77.2 94.7 62.4 2.9 4.1 3.6 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 20.2 3.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 50.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 41.3 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 53.8 59.0 50.2 288.3 27.4 1,241.2 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,460.9 1,348.6 1,327.9 1,452.2 1,260.2 1,299.3 1,373.0 1,179.8 1,293.4 1,332.4 1,367.6 1,587.6 1,439.7 507.0 516.2 563.7 530.6 502.2 664.4 568.6 609.9 727.3 519.2 572.5 503.8 460.8 532.1 532.6 565.1 580.1 624.8 305.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 275.6 327.2 269.0 312.4 294.5 280.7 361.5 295.0 290.5 285.7 285.1 295.5 320.0 300.1 195.1 157.0 215.4 209.5 208.3 197.1 155.4 206.6 197.5 194.0 174.3 198.3 161.0 167.4 173.1 183.1 229.6 175.8 2.2 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 72.2 66.8 78.8 2.3 141.9 4.7 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.8 7.6 7.7 28.2 7.0 607.4 598.8 611.3 662.3 674.2 683.1 639.8 625.7 637.4 633.4 622.9 731.8 582.5 608.2 617.1 628.6 660.7 697.0 20.6 22.0 27.4 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 27.9 34.4 48.5 56.4 119.7 519.8 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.6 526.3 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.4 526.0 610.4 503.5 512.1 516.7 513.9 523.8 514.9 62.3 67.0 56.7 70.0 90.1 57.9 41.6 58.5 67.2 57.7 60.3 67.1 53.7 64.8 63.2 63.3 79.0 56.5 4.6 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6 6.0 72.4 74.2 86.5 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.8 41.4 38.1 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.2 95.5 122.6 125.2 235.4 68.5 24.5 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.4 12.6 11.9 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 25.1 41.5 29.6 84.0 1.7 29.9 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 32.5 18.6 19.1 27.3 47.7 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BAMC - Bank Asset Management Company, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ - Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, , EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EFSM - European Financial Stability Mechanism, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI -Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS - Labour Force Survey, Libor -London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, MZIP - Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RČV - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - the Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, ZEW -Centre for European Economic Research, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror March 2014, No. 3, Vol. XX