N o. 5 , V ol . X XI II, 2 01 7 Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf ) No. 5 / Vol. XXIII / 2017 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Urška Brodar, Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Ana Vidrih, MSc. Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik, MSc (Slovenia’s competitiveness according to IMD 2017) Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2016) Tanja Čelebič, MSc (Literacy of young people according to the PISA 2015 survey) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, MSc, Andraž Rangus, PhD, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation, Graphs, DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International environment ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic developments in Slovenia ............................................................................................................................. 8 Labour market .................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................................... 17 Financial markets ............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Public finance .................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Selected topics ...............................................................................................................................................21 Slovenia’s competitiveness according to IMD 2017 .................................................................................................. 23 Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2016 ............................................................................................................... 24 Literacy of young people according to the PISA 2015 survey ............................................................................................ 26 Statistical appendix .....................................................................................................................................................29 On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 7th July 2017. 3Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 In the Spotlight This year activity is increasing in most activities and the prospects remain favourable. Higher foreign demand and competitiveness gains remain the main factors behind further growth in exports and manufacturing production. Private consumption, which is rising under the impact of favourable labour market conditions and high consumer confidence, is contributing to turnover growth in trade and services, particularly those related to leisure. This is also the result of a higher number of foreign tourist arrivals, which has been rising since 2010, with Slovenia becoming more recognisable abroad and the economies recovering from the crisis. The pick-up in domestic and foreign demand is also reflected in further turnover growth in most other market services. With the improvement in economic conditions and the recovery of the property market, construction activity also started to rebound. The labour market situation continues to improve under the impact of favourable economic conditions, while wage movements remain moderate. The number of employed persons, which was up in most activities in the first four months, has reached the level from the beginning of 2007. Increased employment and a smaller inflow into unemployment are reflected in a decline in the number of unemployed. At the end of the June, 84,793 persons were registered as unemployed, 15.0% less than one year before. Companies also expect further growth in employment in the coming months. Year-on-year growth in consumer prices has been down again in the last few months. This is mainly related to the smaller contribution of energy prices owing to a decline in global prices of oil. Food price growth has also slowed. Services prices remain higher year on year particularly on account of a further strengthening of private consumption, while the prices of durable and semi-durable goods remain lower. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors was higher year on year again in May. Household borrowing is rising.The year-on-year decline in the volume of corporate and NFI loans has almost come to a halt. Enterprises continue to borrow abroad where lending conditions are more favourable. Among sources of finance, banks continue to reduce liabilities to foreign banks, substituting them by deposits of domestic non-banking sectors, particularly households and non-financial corporations. Amid favourable economic developments and moderate expenditure growth, the general government deficit on a cash basis was low in the first four months. At EUR 85 million, it reached one fifth of the figure from the same period of last year. Its decline is mainly due to the rapid year-on-year growth in revenue, which, in addition to some one-off factors, is attributable primarily to favourable economic conditions, including the labour market situation. Despite the relaxation of some austerity measures, total growth in expenditure remains moderate, being significantly affected by the currently low level of investment amid a very gradual implementation of the new financial perspective of the EU and lower payments into the EU budget year on year. In the spotlight 4 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 In the Spotlight Activity increased in the first months of the year under the impact of higher foreign and domestic demand. Favourable economic conditions are reflected in increased employment; in the last few months the number of employed has almost reached the levels seen at the beginning of 2007. 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 Ja n 06 Ja n 07 Ja n 08 Ja n 09 Ja n 10 Ja n 11 Ja n 12 Ja n 13 Ja n 14 Ja n 15 Ja n 16 Ja n 17 N um be r o f e m pl oy ed a cc or di ng to S RE , s ea so na lly ad ju st ed , i n '0 00 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 M an uf ac tu rin g Co ns tr uc tio n R et ai l t ra de Sa le o f m ot or ve hi cl es W ho le sa le tr ad e Tr an sp or ta tio n an d st or ag e A cc om m od at io n an d fo od s er vi ce a ct . In fo rm at io n an d co m m un ic at io n ac t. Pr of es si on al , s ci en t., an d te ch ni ca l a ct . A dm in is tr at iv e an d su pp or t s er vi ce a ct . Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th , i n % Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 2016 Jan-Apr 2017 Consumer price growth has slowed in recent months, primarily owing to lower growth in energy prices. Household borrowing is increasing; enterprises are borrowing abroad where lending conditions are more favourable. -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th (i n % ) Co nt rib ut io n to y ea r- on -y ea r g ro w th , i n pp s Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Services Fuels and energy Food Other Inflation (%) -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 M ay 1 1 M ay 1 2 M ay 1 3 M ay 1 4 M ay 1 5 M ay 1 6 M ay 1 7 Ye ar -o n- ye ar c ha ng es , i n EU R m Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Excluding the impact of the transfer of claims to the BAMC. Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 Ja n 11 Ja n 12 Ja n 13 Ja n 14 Ja n 15 Ja n 16 Ja n 17 In E U R m , 1 2- m on th c um ul at iv e su m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Total revenue Total expenditure 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 In m ill io n Source: SURS. Foreign tourist overnight stays Domestic tourist overnight stays The favourable fiscal movements at the beginning of the year are based on rapid year-on-year growth in revenue and moderate growth in expenditure. With Slovenia becoming more and more recognisable abroad and the economies recovering from the crisis, the number of foreign tourist arrivals has been rising since 2010. The number of domestic tourists has also been increasing in the last two years. cu rr en t e co no m ic tr en ds 7Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends In the first quarter economic growth in the euro area strengthened further. GDP rose by 0.6% and was 1.9% higher year on year.2 Growth continues to be driven by domestic demand; exports are also rising, amid the recovery of the global economy and trade. Growth in private consumption is underpinned by higher employment and improving consumer confidence. The recovery in investment continues to be stimulated by favourable borrowing conditions and higher profitability of firms. At the beginning of the second quarter the growth of activity in the euro area continued to strengthen and the prospects remain favourable. The value of construction output rose strongly in the first four months and the increase in the number of building permits indicates further growth. Production volume in manufacturing rose further; amid rising orders, firms also expect production growth in the future. Turnover in retail trade increased again and consumer confidence remains high. 1 Strong growth in gross fixed capital formation and imports in the last quarter of 2016 were mainly due to transactions by larger economic entities in Ireland. 2 Eurostat’s third estimate. Figure 1: GDP growth in the euro area1 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Q 1 11 Q 1 12 Q 1 13 Q 1 14 Q 1 15 Q 1 16 Q 1 17 Re al G D P gr ow th , i n % C on tr ib ut io n to q ua rt er ly G D P gr ow th , i n pp s Source: Eurostat. Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Exports Imports GDP (right axis) Figure 2: Short-term indicators of economic activity and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Se as on al ly a dj us te d in di ca to r v al ue , b al an ce in % , 3 - m on th m ov in g av er ag e Se as on al ly a dj us te d re al in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Industrial production in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade Economic Sentiment Indicator (right axis) International environment Table 1: Brent crude prices, the USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average change, in %* 2016 V 17 VI 17 VI 17/V 17 VI 17/VI 16 I-VI 17/I-VI 16 Brent USD, per barrel 44.80 50.33 46.37 -7.9 -3.9 30.4 Brent EUR, per barrel 40.40 45.53 41.29 -9.3 -3.9 34.9 EUR/USD 1.107 1.106 1.123 1.6 0.0 -3.0 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.265 -0.329 -0.330 -0.1 -6.2 -10.7 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends This year activity is increasing in most sectors and the prospects remain favourable. Higher foreign demand and competitiveness gains boost further growth in exports and manufacturing production. The improvement in economic conditions and the recovery of the property market are reflected in the strengthening of construction activity. Private consumption, which is rising under the impact of favourable labour market conditions and high consumer confidence, is contributing to turnover growth in trade and services, particularly those related to leisure. This is also due to a higher number of foreign tourist arrivals. Amid the strengthening of domestic and foreign demand, turnover is also rising in most other market services. Economic sentiment remains high. Figure 3: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Ja n 08 Ja n 09 Ja n 10 Ja n 11 Ja n 12 Ja n 13 Ja n 14 Ja n 15 Ja n 16 Ja n 17S ea so na lly a dj us te d re al in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Merchandise exports Industrial production in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade Real exports and imports of goods remained high in April after the pronounced growth in previous months.3 In the first four months exports were up 7.3% year on year. Their growth continued to be underpinned by rising foreign demand and competitiveness gains in manufacturing. The greatest contribution to export growth came from technologically more intensive industries. Imports recorded 7.6% growth in this period. In addition to favourable export trends, it was underpinned by rising domestic private and investment consumption. Figure 4: Merchandise trade – real 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Ja n 1 1 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 1 2 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 1 3 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 1 4 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 1 5 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 1 6 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 1 7 Se as on al ly a d ju st ed in d ex 2 00 8= 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g a ve ra g e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Exports Imports 3 The estimate of real merchandise exports was made on the basis of nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real imports were estimated based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. Economic developments in Slovenia Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2016 IV 17/III 17 IV 17/IV 16 I-IV 17/I-IV 16 Merchandise exports, real1 5.7 -0.63 1.0 7.3 Merchandise imports, real1 4.8 -1.63 -1.3 7.6 Services exports, nominal2 8.1 4.33 14.0 10.9 Services imports, nominal2 5.5 -0.83 8.4 7.4 Industrial production, real 7.0 -0.53 7.84 6.84 -manufacturing 8.3 -0.53 8.04 6.94 Construction -value of construction put in place, real -17.7 -0.13 27.7 22.3 Real turnover in retail trade 4.5 -0.93 9.64 12.54 Market services (without trade) - nominal turnover 4.0 0.7 8.74 7.24 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. 9Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Nominal exports of services rose further in April; imports remained high.4 In the first four months exports were up 10.9% year on year, their growth being mainly driven by exports of transport services and technical, trade-related and other business services. Imports were 7.4% higher year on year in this period, largely owing to increased imports of transport services and professional and management consultancy services. Figure 5: Trade in services – nominal 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 In E U R m , s ea so na lly a dj us te d, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Exports of services Imports of services 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. The value of construction output strengthened at the beginning of this year. The construction of buildings is picking up, amid a general improvement in economic conditions and a gradual rebound of the property market. Activity in the construction of residential buildings started to recover mid-2015; the recovery in the construction of non-residential buildings started up mid-2016 and continued at the beginning of 2017. The construction of civil-engineering works, which dropped sharply last year due to lower government investment, rose at the beginning of the year. Figure 7: Value of construction output 0 20 40 60 80 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Se as on al ly a dj us te d in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering works Production volume in manufacturing remained high in April after growth in previous months. This year it continues to rise particularly in medium-low- and medium-high- technology industries. In high-technology industries, which made a significant contribution to total production growth in manufacturing last year, production has maintained similarly high levels since the end of last year. The recovery of low-technology industries – which generate the bulk of their turnover on the domestic market, where demand is recovering more slowly than abroad – remains modest. Figure 6: Production volume in manufacturing 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Se as on al ly a dj us te d re al in de x 20 10 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS. Manufacturing, total High-technology industries Medium-high-technology industries Medium-low-technology industries Low-technology industries 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends With the continuation of high sales, residential property prices rose further in the first quarter. Prices were up 5.9% year on year and around one-fifth lower than the 2008 peak. The prices of existing flats, which account for around two-thirds of total sales, rose the most in Ljubljana.5 The prices of existing flats outside Ljubljana were also up. The number of transactions in these flats was the highest in ten years.6 The number of transactions in new properties remains half lower than the 2007 peak. Figure 8: Prices and transactions in new and existing residential properties 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q 1 08 Q 1 09 Q 1 10 Q 1 11 Q 1 12 Q 1 13 Q 1 14 Q 1 15 Q 1 16 Q 1 17 In de x 20 08 = 10 0, 4 -q ua rt er m ov in g av er ag e In de x 20 08 = 10 0, 4 -q ua rt er m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Transactions in existing residential properties (left axis) Transactions in new residential properties (left axis) Prices of existing residential properties (right axis) Prices of new residential properties (right axis) 5 Prices were up by a tenth. 6 One fifth higher than the 2007 peak. 7 In the first four months as a whole, the sales of passenger cars to natural persons rose 15.4% year on year. 8 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities, affected not only by the increased spending of domestic households, but also a high number of foreign tourist arrivals, rose almost one-tenth in the first four months as a whole. Household expenditure on private trips abroad was also up year on year in this period (by 6.8%). In April household consumption increased further amid favourable labour market developments and high consumer confidence. Purchases of durable goods, passenger cars in particular,7 continued to grow. Spending on semi-durable goods (particularly on products for personal care) and services related to leisure time activities at home and abroad also continued to increase.8 Figure 10: Selected indicators of household consumption 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17S ea so na lly a dj us te d in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Real turnover in the sale of non-food products Sale of passenger cars to natural persons Real net wage bill Nominal turnover in accommodation and food service activities Source: Ministry for Infrastructure, SURS; calculations by IMAD. In April nominal turnover continued to grow in most market services. With the strengthening of employment, turnover continues to increase rapidly in employment services (part of N activities). Foreign demand is boosting growth in more export-oriented service sectors, such as road transport and computer services. Activity in professional and technical activities remains low, particularly in architectural and engineering services, where turnover continues to decline. Figure 9: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Se as on al ly a dj us te d in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * including accommodation and food service activities. Total* Transportation and storage (H) Information and communication activities (J) Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) 11Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Economic sentiment remains high. In the last few months, confidence has been improving particularly in construction and among consumers. In other sectors it remains at similarly high levels after the improvement at the beginning of the year. Figure 11: Business trends -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17S ea so na lly a dj us te d in di ca to r v al ue , 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Owing to a methodological change, data from 2016 onwards are not comparable with previous data. Economic sentiment Manufacturing Retail trade Service activities Construction Consumers* 12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Growth in the number of employed persons9 remains strong and continues in most activities. In recent months the number of employed has reached the level from the beginning of 2007. Short-term expectations of enterprises about future employment indicate a continuation of favourable trends. However, a certain segment of enterprises, particularly in manufacturing, is already facing a shortage of skilled labour. Given the relaxation of hiring restrictions in 2016, the number of employed persons in public service activities remained higher year on year particularly in the health sector and primary education. Figure 12: Expectations about employment -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Ja n 11 Ja n 12 Ja n 13 Ja n 14 Ja n 15 Ja n 16 Ja n 17 Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th (i n % ) Se as on al ly a dj us te d in di ca to r v al ue , 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS, Eurostat. Industry Construction Trade Services Employed persons (right axis) The number of registered unemployed persons continued to decline in the first half of the year amid strong hiring and lower inflows into unemployment. The outflow into employment remained similar to that in the same period of 2016; the inflow into the unemployment register, related mainly to the termination of fixed-term contracts, was down year on year. There were also fewer first-time jobseekers, which is related to better economic conditions and smaller generations of young people finishing school. At the end of June, 84,793 persons were registered as unemployed (15.0% fewer than in June 2016). Figure 13: Employed according to SRE and registered unemployed 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 720 730 740 750 760 770 780 790 800 810 820 830 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 N um b er o f r eg is te re d un em p lo ye d, in '0 00 , se as on al ly a dj us te d N um b er o f e m p lo ye d ac co rd in g to S RE , i n '0 00 , se as on al ly a dj us te d Source: SURS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Employed according to SRE (left axis) Registered unemployed (right axis) 9 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons except farmers. Figure 14: Average gross earnings per employee 100 105 110 115 120 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17S ea so na lly a dj us te d in de x 20 08 = 10 0, 3 -m on th m ov in g av er ag e Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Gross earnings per employee Private sector Public sector – general government – public corporations Wage movements remain moderate. After the stagnation in the first quarter, average gross earnings in the private sector remained almost unchanged in April; in the public sector they rose slightly. In the first four months both sectors recorded somewhat slower wage growth than in the same period of 2016. The labour market 13Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends change, in % 2016 IV 17/III 17 IV 17/IV 16 I-IV 17/I-IV 16 Persons in formal employment2 1,6 0,51 3,5 1,6 Registered unemployed -8,5 -1,61 -13,6 -8,5 Average nominal gross wage 1,8 0,31 1,3 1,4 - private sector 1,7 0,11 0,8 1,5 - public sector 2,3 0,31 2,6 1,9 -of which general government 3,6 0,61 3,1 2,0 of which public corporations -0,5 -0,21 1,5 1,9 2016 IV 16 III 17 IV 17 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 11,2 11,3 10,1 9,9 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Year-on-year consumer price growth has been down again in the last few months. This is mainly related to the smaller contribution of energy prices owing to the decline in global prices of oil. Food price growth has also eased. Services prices remain up year on year particularly as a result of a further strengthening of private consumption (accommodation and food service activities). Prices of durable and semi-durable goods have remained lower year on year. Figure 15: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and the euro area -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th (i n % ) Source: Eurostat. Euro area HICP Euro area HICP - core inflation Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP - core inflation Industrial producer prices and import prices continue to increase year on year. The growth of import prices is slowing as a result of declining commodity prices on global markets. In May the growth of domestic industrial producer prices remained similar to that in April. Figure 16: Industrial producer prices and import prices 100 102 104 106 108 110 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 In de x 20 10 = 10 0 Source: SURS. PPI (domestic market) PPI (foreign markets) Prices Table 4: Consumer price growth in % 2016 VI 17/V 17 VI 17/VI 16 I-VI 17/I-VI 16 Total 0.5 0.0 0.9 1.6 Food 1.6 -1.3 1.3 2.4 Fuels and energy -0.2 -0.9 1.4 5.1 Services 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 Other1 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Total excluding food and energy 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 Administered prices2 0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.0 Tax impact – contribution in percentage points 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2 An approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined in the period of the last five years as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean. 15Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends In the first five months price competitiveness improved slightly year on year and remained stimulative for exporters. In the recent period the euro has otherwise strengthened in nominal terms, but was still lower year-on-year against most of the main currencies in and outside the EU.10 The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative11 consumer prices consequently declined to just below the level from one year before, which is close to the lowest figures since Slovenia’s entry into the ERM2 in 2004 recorded two years ago. Figure 17: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries deflated by the HICP -2 -1 0 1 2 3 SK IE F I M T FR N L G R IT SI D E PT A T C Y LU E S BE LV LT EE EA Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th Ja n– M ay 2 01 7, in % Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: *A rise in the value indicates a loss in price competitiveness, and vice versa. SI against 19 partners extra EA SI against 18 partners EA SI against 37 partners EA and extra EA 10 Against the Polish zloty, Croatian kuna, Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, Japanese yen, South Korean won, Swiss franc and particularly Russian rouble (the latter being from a broader set of 56 trading partners). 11 Slovenian prices in comparison with those in its trading partners. In the first quarter of the year unit labour costs were also down year on year in the entire economy. After one year of growth, which had been gradually slowing in the second half of the year, they declined as a consequence of a pronounced increase in labour productivity amid a further increase in employment. Growth in compensation of employees per employee slowed further in real terms. A turn in a positive direction was also recorded in the non-tradable sector, particularly construction, and, to a lesser extent, financial, insurance, professional, scientific, technical, and real estate activities. The average improvement of cost competitiveness in the euro area and EU economy was significantly smaller. Figure 19: Real unit labour costs, Slovenia and the euro area average -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q 1 11 Q 1 12 Q 1 13 Q 1 14 Q 1 15 Q 1 16 Q 1 17 Ye ar -o n- ye ar g ro w th , i n % Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * real, GDP deflator RULC SI RULC EA Labour productivity SI* Labour productivity EA* Compensation per employee SI* Compensation per employee EA* In the tradable sector unit labour costs fell year on year in the first quarter. This was a consequence of a decline in manufacturing, trade, accommodation and food service activities and transportation, but also in information and communication services, which recorded increased employment and earnings amid strong value added growth. Unit labour costs movements in the tradable sector have been in line with the euro area average since 2015, while in manufacturing they have already been relatively better for several years. Figure 18: Real unit labour costs in the tradable sector and manufacturing, Slovenia and the euro area 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 Q 1 08 Q 1 09 Q 1 10 Q 1 11 Q 1 12 Q 1 13 Q 1 14 Q 1 15 Q 1 16 Q 1 17In de x 20 07 = 10 0, 4 -q ua rt er m ov in g av er ag es Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: The average of the EU or the euro area excluding Ireland, where there was a break in data series owing to a large revision in GDP. Tradable sector Slovenia Tradable sector EA18 Manufacturing SI Manufacturing EA18 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Table 5: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness Year-on-year growth, in % 2015 2016 q1 16 q2 16 q3 16 q4 16 q1 17 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -2.8 0.8 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 -0.2 Real, deflator HICP -3.8 0.2 -0.7 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 Real, deflator ULC -3.5 1.1 0.8 2.6 0.6 0.2 N/A Unit labour costs, ecnomy and components Nominal unit labour costs 0.3 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.2 1.3 -1.0 Compensation of employees per employee, nominal 1.4 2.2 2.6 3.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 Labour productivity, real 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 2.7 Real unit labour costs -0.7 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.0 0.4 -2.2 Labour productivity, nominal 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.1 4.0 Source: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Against 36 trading partners, according to ECB data. 17Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Despite the deterioration in the terms of trade, the current account surplus remained high in the first four months. In the twelve months to April it totalled EUR 2.7 billion (6.5% of GDP). The higher surplus in current transactions in comparison with the previous 12-month period was mainly due to the higher trade surplus in services,12 while the surplus in trade in goods was lower due to the faster volume growth of imports than exports and deteriorated terms of trade.13 The deficit in primary income was down mainly owing to lower net payments of interest on external debt and lower estimates for reinvested profits, while the deficit in secondary income was down owing to higher transfers to the private sector. Figure 20: Components of the current account of the balance of payments -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 12 -m on th m ov in g su m , i n EU R m Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Merchandise trade Trade in services Primary income Secondary income Current account The net outflow of external financial transactions continues. The financial flows of the government sector were roughly balanced. The private sector recorded a net outflow. Enterprises increased short-term trade credit to the rest of the world, which is related to the growth of exports of goods and services, while commercial banks were buying foreign debt securities in particular and deleveraging. The BoS increased financial investment in foreign securities,14 but recorded a net inflow by borrowing from the Eurosystem. Figure 21: Financial transactions of the balance of payments -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Ja n 11 Ju l 1 1 Ja n 12 Ju l 1 2 Ja n 13 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 14 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 15 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 16 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 17 12 -m on th m ov in g su m , i n EU R m Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment Financial transactions 12 Net revenues from construction works abroad increased the most, and the surplus in trade in transport, travel and other business services. 13 The terms of trade have been constantly worsening year on year since global energy prices started to rise in October 2016. In the first four months of 2017, the terms of trade deteriorated by 1.9% year on year. 14 Securities include both securities bought on the basis of investment decisions of the BoS and those bought under the asset purchase programme (APP). Balance of payments Table 6: Balance of payments I-IV 2017, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-IV 16 Current account 12,052.6 11,092.0 960.6 938.1 Goods 9,066.3 8,500.6 565.7 609.0 Services 2,090.0 1,314.2 775.7 660.3 Primary income 650.2 863.5 -213.2 -140.7 Secondary income 246.1 413.7 -167.6 -190.5 Capital account 174.0 236.8 -62.8 -73.6 Financial account 987.7 1,466.6 479.0 282.4 Direct investment 413.0 278.9 -134.1 -679.8 Portfolio investment 1,118.6 961.9 -156.7 1,061.7 Other investment -501.8 189.9 691.8 -81.9 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -418.8 -418.8 -582.1 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Figure 22: The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors In May the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors15 continued to increase gradually year on year. Household borrowing is rising. The year-on-year decline in the volume of corporate and NFI loans has almost come to a halt. Lending conditions being more favourable abroad, enterprises continue to borrow from foreign banks, particularly in the form of long-term loans (with maturities over one year), where interest rate differences are greatest. Among sources of finance, banks continue to reduce liabilities to foreign banks, substituting them by deposits of domestic non-banking sectors, particularly households and non-financial corporations. -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17 Ye ar -o n- ye ar c ha ng es , i n EU R m Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Excluding the impact of the transfer of claims to the BAMC. Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total 15 The analysis is made on the basis of statistical data, which differ from accounting data particularly in that they also include revisions. Greater differences between these data are seen for the volume of loans extended to non-financial corporations (both domestic and foreign). Financial markets Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. V 16 31. XII 16 31. V 17 31. V 17/30. IV 17 31. V 17/31. V 16 Loans total 21,023.1 21,410.3 21,472.2 -0.4 2.1 Enterprises and NFI 10,273.9 10,171.2 10,234.7 -0.2 -0.4 Government 1,858.2 2,085.4 1,824.3 -6.6 -1.8 Households 8,890.9 9,153.6 9,413.3 0.7 5.9 Consumer credits 2,062.0 2,144.0 2,278.0 1.2 10.5 Lending for house purchase 5,583.8 5,716.5 5,842.2 0.5 4.6 Other lending 1,245.1 1,293.1 1,293.1 0.5 3.9 Bank deposits total 16,349.0 16,935.0 17,269.1 0.2 5.6 Overnight deposits 9,829.6 10,956.4 11,802.5 1.0 20.1 Term deposits 6,519.4 5,978.6 5,466.5 -1.4 -16.1 Government bank deposits, total 1,021.2 1,088.0 901.6 -4.5 -11.7 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 5,359.8 5,804.5 5,777.2 -0.1 7.8 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. 19Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends The favourable fiscal movements at the beginning of the year are based on relatively rapid year-on-year growth in most revenue categories and moderate growth in expenditure. In the first four months the general government deficit on a cash basis16 reached one-fifth of the figure from the same period of last year, while the surplus of the primary balance was significantly higher. In addition to certain one-off factors,17 the strong revenue growth is attributable primarily to favourable economic conditions, including the labour market situation. Owing to the relaxation of austerity measures, the greatest contribution to expenditure growth is coming from compensation of employees and some current transfers to individuals and households; the rapid growth of sickness benefits also continues. Total expenditure growth nevertheless remains moderate, the main reasons being low growth in investment amid the modest absorption of EU funds and year-on-year lower payments into the EU budget.18 Figure 23: General government balance on a cash flow basis -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 I-IV 2016 I-IV 2017 In E U R m Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. General government balance Primary general government balance 16 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 17 In tax revenues, particularly the postponed payments of excise duties in the same period of 2016; in non-tax revenues, primarily the accrued interest on the reopened RS76 bond. 18 Lower payments into the EU budget in 2017 with regard to the realisation in 2016 were also envisaged in the adopted budget. However, these payments from the state budget to the EU budget will be even lower than planned, which is already indicated by current data. This is a consequence of the lower needs of the EU budget in connection with the lower absorption of Cohesion Policy funds at the level of the EU. Owing to the requirements for a balanced EU budget, countries’ payments are being adjusted to payment needs. The year-on-year change in the four months is also partially due to the impact of last year’s higher payments in this period because of the EC’s requirement for advance entries of VAT and GNP resources. 19 Starting points for the revision of the Operational Programme for the Implementation of the EU Cohesion Policy 2014–2020. 20 EUR 3.067 million will be available to Slovenia instead of EUR 3.011 million. 21 Owing to the lower needs for the implementation of financial instruments (loans, etc.), a portion of these repayable funds will be allocated for grants. Grants will be allocated for the smart specialisation strategy, research and innovations in priority areas of Slovenia, the promotion of entrepreneurship, sustainable and urban mobility, to local communities for projects aimed at increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and to R&D enterprises. Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first five months (EUR 53.6 million). The bulk (two-thirds) of receipts were a consequence of the absorption of funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy. In May the Slovenian government adopted starting points for the revision of the Operative Programme,19 taking into account the changed circumstances with regard to the estimated needs, priority investments and acceleration of EU funds absorption. The starting points envisage that Slovenia will be allocated additional EUR 56 million20 for infrastructure and human resource development with the emphasis on active ageing.21 One of the more important reallocations is the reallocation of a portion of funds for the construction of the second rail track on the Koper–Divača line. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Other Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion Fund Structural Funds In EUR m Source: MF, calculations by IMAD. Note: * The bulk of 2016 receipts are funds from the programming period 2007–2013. Total receipts (Jan-May 2017) Total receipts (Jan-May 2016)* Figure 24: Receipts from the EU budget, January – May 2016 and 2017 Public finance 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-IV 2016 I-IV 2017 Category I-IV 2016 I-IV 2017 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 5,038.2 -0.7 5,490.4 9.0 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 5,483.1 -2.5 5,575.5 1.7 Tax revenues* 2,720.6 -0.4 2,944.8 8.2 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures** 1,223.8 1.1 1,273.8 4.1 Personal income tax 708.6 2.6 755.9 6.7 Expenditure on goods and services 704.2 3.2 725.0 3.0 Corporate income tax 145.3 -38.1 243.8 67.8 Interest payments 587.7 -1.2 589.9 0.4 Taxes on immovable property 20.3 -7.8 27.4 35.1 Reserves 37.1 -32.8 36.9 -0.7 Value added tax 1,077.2 2.4 1,138.9 5.7 Transfers to individuals and households 2,146.8 1.9 2,190.7 2.0 Excise duties 418.2 -11.1 485.4 16.1 Other current transfers 448.8 1.1 449.8 0.2 Social security contributions 1,868.6 4.1 1,980.9 6.0 Investment expenditure 174.1 -46.7 178.4 2.5 Non-tax revenues 222.1 2.8 333.6 50.2 Payments to the EU budget 160.5 -22.0 130.9 -18.4 Receipts from the EU budget 203.1 -35.5 207.3 2.0 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE -445.0 -85.0 Other 23.8 18.6 23.9 0.3 PRIMARY BALANCE 136.8 495.5 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions.** Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. se le ct ed to pi cs 23Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Selected Topics Slovenia’s competitiveness according to IMD 2017 Slovenia’s ranking according to the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 20171 remained relatively low. Among the 63 countries analysed, Hong Kong, Switzerland and Singapore top the list; among the EU countries, the best performing countries are the Netherlands, Ireland and Denmark. Slovenia is in the second half of all countries included in the survey, ranking 43rd (among the EU countries, 20th). This year two countries (Cyprus and Saudi Arabia) were included in the report for the first time, which affected the overall performance – both 1 This year’s IMD report monitors 261 criteria, two-thirds of which are based on statistical indicators and one-third on surveys. Statistical data are mainly based on figures for 2016, while surveys were conducted at the beginning of 2017. The indicators of competitiveness are divided into four areas: economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure. ranked higher than Slovenia. Slovenia has otherwise made the most progress in the last three years, but its ranking is still lower than before the crisis,2 mainly on account of a significant decline in the value of survey- based indicators.3 Most macroeconomic indicators have improved in the last few years and approached their pre- crisis levels. Slovenia’s ranking in business efficiency has remained low (47th place). Slovenia ranks particularly low in international investment, with inward FDI remaining modest and managers continuing to think about moving R&D and services abroad. Despite favourable labour 2 In 2008, 55 countries were included in the analysis. 3 The decline in the value of survey-based indicators was also affected by a significant decline in business confidence, which was larger than in other countries. Table 9: IMD world competitiveness indicators by main categories Year 2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Number of countries 55 59 60 60 61 61 63 Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Global competitiveness 32 51 52 - 55 - 49 + 43 + 43 o Economic performance 25 43 51 - 52 - 42 + 43 - 47 - - Domestic economy 22 56 58 - 58 o 49 + 48 + 49 - - International trade 10 26 37 - 17 + 18 - 16 + 15 + - International investment 54 57 60 - 59 + 59 o 59 o 58 + - Employment 39 49 47 + 51 - 48 + 51 - 52 - - Prices 8 2 7 - 10 - 7 + 8 - 6 + Government efficiency 43 53 53 o 56 - 52 + 45 + 42 + - Public finance 21 56 47 + 60 - 56 + 48 + 45 + - Fiscal policy 51 51 49 + 51 - 52 - 50 + 54 - - Institutional framework 33 52 54 - 54 o 49 + 47 + 44 + - Business legislation 47 47 48 - 45 + 43 + 41 + 39 + - Societal framework 37 42 37 + 31 + 25 + 18 + 19 - Business efficiency 32 57 58 - 58 o 56 + 53 + 48 + - Productivity and efficiency 18 40 45 - 43 + 44 - 30 + 27 + - Labour market 39 51 54 - 58 - 53 + 56 - 53 + - Financial markets 28 57 58 - 59 - 56 + 53 + 55 - - Management practices 30 56 58 - 59 - 58 + 54 + 44 + - Attitude and values 46 56 59 - 59 o 59 o 58 + 56 + Infrastructure 29 33 33 o 32 + 33 - 30 + 31 - - Basic infrastructure 33 38 39 - 41 - 40 + 34 + 31 + - Technological infrastructure 28 40 42 - 42 o 43 - 39 + 44 - - Scientific infrastructure 32 35 32 + 31 + 31 o 30 + 31 - - Health and environment 30 29 29 o 29 o 31 - 26 + 28 - - Education 27 26 30 - 29 + 25 + 21 + 23 - Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, between 2008 and 2016. Note: “Rank” means Slovenia’s ranking among the countries included in the report in a given year; “+” means a rise in ranking relative to the previous year, “-“ indicates a fall while “o” means that there was no change. 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Selected Topics market developments, Slovenia still scores low in the area of employment. Although some key macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, export growth) improved, Slovenia’s position in domestic economy has not changed significantly, given that other countries also made progress in this area. Meanwhile, the ranking in international trade is improving, which can be attributed particularly to the further improvement in export competitiveness indicators (world market share, unit labour costs) and the increased current account surplus in goods and services trade. Government efficiency and business efficiency have improved further compared with other countries (42nd and 48th place respectively). In government efficiency, which has exceeded the pre-crisis level, the rankings have improved on most indicators, particularly public finance, given that the public finance situation in Slovenia is gradually improving. Managers are more satisfied with the institutional framework than in previous years, but bureaucracy and the inefficiency of government institutions remain a problem. The improvement in business efficiency is mainly due to higher GDP per capita and productivity growth, but this is still modest. However, the IMD report also points to weaknesses related to business finance (banking and financial services, access to financing), labour market regulation, attitudes and values and insufficient openness to change.4 Slovenia continues to be at the bottom of the analysed countries in corporate governance.5. Nevertheless, in the last few years positive shifts have also been seen in these three areas. Slovenia scores best in infrastructure (30th). Its main strengths are education, health, environment and scientific infrastructure. It lags behind the best performing countries particularly in technological development, where the main barrier is a shortage of appropriately highly educated staff; institutional support for investment in high technologies and knowledge transfer to the business sector are also too low compared with other countries. Innovation activity of enterprises is also relatively low. In the last three years Slovenia’s rankings have improved in most areas, but the challenges have not changed significantly during this period. The report finds Slovenia’s key competitive advantages in its well- educated workforce, high level of education and reliable infrastructure. Among the challenges the IMD states i) a further strengthening of fiscal sustainability in the medium and long term; ii) implementation of tax reform aimed at increasing incentives to work and employability; iii) improvement of the business environment; iv) a 4 This shows in a significant lack of understanding among managers of the importance of structural reforms and failure to accept foreign ideas and different cultures. 5 The effectiveness of corporate boards, credibility of mangers (who lack experience abroad in particular) and implementation of auditing and accounting practise. further privatisation and restructuring of state-owned companies; and v) modernisation of rail infrastructure. Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2016 Tourism has been rapidly increasing in Slovenia since 2010. In 2016 the number of tourist arrivals6 exceeded 4 million for the first time and the number of their overnight stays exceeded 11 million for the first time. With the recovery of the economies from the crisis and Slovenia becoming more recognisable abroad, particularly the number of foreign tourist arrivals has increased significantly since 2010. Domestic tourist arrivals started increasing in 2015, with the improvement in economic conditions and higher household spending, but the number of their overnight stays in 2016 was still significantly lower than the 2009 peak. The average length of stay7 in Slovenia continued to decline in 2016. We estimate that, in addition to the more frequent shorter stays of both domestic and foreign tourists, this was also due to a higher number of tourists from more distant countries, who visited several touristic places in Slovenia and stayed there overnight.8 Tourists from Italy, Austria and Germany are still the most import for Slovenia’s tourism. Together, they generated almost 40% of all foreign tourist overnight stays in 2016. 6 I.e., the number of tourist arrivals, as tourists are registered on their arrival to any tourist accommodation where they spend the night. Their registration in a place/country can therefore be multiplied. 7 In 2008, the average length of stay was 3 nights; in 2016, 2.6 nights. 8 Tourists who stay in several tourist establishments during their vacation in Slovenia can be registered as tourists more than once, which impacts the calculations of the average number of overnight stays per tourist (for example, a tourist who spent five nights in five different tourist establishments is registered as five tourists with one average overnight stay). Figure 25: Number of overnight stays in Slovenia, 2008– 2016 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 In m ill io n Source: SURS. Foreign tourists Domestic tourists 25Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Selected Topics Tourists from China, Korea and other Asian countries are becoming more and more important for Slovenia. The total number of their overnight stays was up almost one- fifth last year (6.5 times with regard to 2008). Owing to the continuation of the Ukraine–Russian crisis and the depreciation of the rouble, the number of Russian tourists declined in 2016 for the fourth consecutive year, but in recent months it has again been rising and was already one-third higher year on year in the first quarter of 2017. In 2016 domestic and foreign tourist arrivals increased again in all tourist destinations. With Slovenia becoming more recognisable abroad,9 the number of tourist arrivals in Ljubljana rose significantly for the third year in a row. The share of foreign tourist overnight stays in Ljubljana in total foreign overnight stays is thus already approaching the share recorded by seaside municipalities. Arrivals in mountain resorts also rose at an above-average rate: the number of foreign tourist overnight stays exceeded 2 million for the first time and the number of overnight stays by domestic tourists approached the 2009 peak. 9 Ljubljana was awarded the title of European Green Capital 2016. Figure 26: Overnight stays of foreign tourists, 2016 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 IT A T D E H R N L U K H U RS IL C Z RU F R BE U S PL KR C H ES BA S K U A RO In % In % Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. Share (left axis) Growth 2016/2015 (right axis) Figure 27: Tourist overnight stays by type of resort, 2016 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 Health (spa) resorts Maritime resorts Mountain resorts Other municipalities Urban municipalities except Lj Ljubljana In % In % Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. Domestic tourists Foreign tourists Growth in domestic overnight stays (right axis) Growth in foreign overnight stays (right axis) The strengthening of tourism improved the performance of accommodation and food serving establishments.10 Last year’s increase in foreign tourists, together with same- day visitors and transit tourists for whom Slovenia is not the final tourist destination, contributed to further growth in inflows from travel, which reached EUR 2,346 million. Together with the increase in domestic tourist arrivals and stronger household spending on restaurants, cafes etc., this was also reflected in the performance of accommodation and food serving establishments,11 which recorded four times higher operating profits than in 2015. Both accommodation establishments and establishments serving food and drinks thus significantly 10 Tourism also affects other (particularly) service activities, such as passenger transport, travel agency activities, cultural, sports and recreation activities, etc. We have focused on accommodation and food service activities, which account for the greatest part (around 55% in 2014) of tourism characteristic goods and services (Economic accounts for tourism, Slovenia, estimation for 2014). 11 The improvement was probably also the result of the introduction of fiscal cash registers. Figure 28: Net operating profit of establishments in the accommodation and food service sector -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2015 2016 2015 2016 Accommodation activities Food and beverage service activities In E U R m ill io n Source: AJPES (statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss statements); calculations by IMAD. Net financial profit/loss Net operating profit/loss Net profit/loss in the accounting period Figure 29: Travel in 2000–2016 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 In E U R m ill io n Source: BoS. Note: Exports of travel include tourism consumption by foreign visitors. Exports Imports 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Selected Topics following areas: equipment of schools with computers, participation of teachers in professional development programmes and help with homework. The 2015 survey paid special attention to literacy in science. Slovenia still has room for improvement in this area. The share of 15-year olds expecting a career in science and technology is above the OECD average, which is favourable from the perspective of ensuring sufficient human capital in the science and technology field. The results of Slovenian 15-year olds in science are good, but by improving certain factors, Slovenia could improve them further and thus increase the quality of human capital. Slovenia fares worse than the OECD average in the following areas: classroom discipline, disruptive behaviour in classrooms, teachers’ support to pupils in class,15 pupils’ interest in scientific topics and their 15 For example, the teacher gives extra help when pupils need it, explains the lesson until everyone understands, shows interest in every pupil’s learning, etc. improved their operating efficiency, returns and value added in 2016. Literacy of young people according to the PISA 2015 survey In 2015 the performance of Slovenian 15-year olds in mathematics, science and reading literacy according to PISA 201512 was better than in 2012. The empowerment of young people with knowledge and competences that enable their successful participation in society is important for employability, economic progress and social welfare. According to the most recent PISA 2015 survey,13 Slovenian 15-year olds achieved the most points in science and the least points in reading. Slovenia ranks above the OECD average in science (by 20 points), mathematics (by 20 points) and reading (by 13 points). The results in mathematics and particularly in reading improved from 2012 to 2015; in science they remained approximately the same. Slovenia has significantly approached the EU 2020 target in science and reading. In 2009 the EU adopted a strategic framework for European cooperation in education and training, “Education and Training” (ET 2020). According to one of the 2020 benchmarks for the average performance in the EU (“EU measures”), the share of 15-year old pupils with low achievement (below the proficiency level 2) in reading, mathematics and science should be less than 15% on respective literacy scales. The PISA 2015 results show that Slovenia has reached this goal in science and reading, but is still below the target in mathematics. Slovenian 15-year olds performed better than the EU average in all three literacy types. Slovenia’s position with regard to educational resources is mostly favourable. The performance of 15-year olds is influenced by educational resources (teachers, material and financial resources and time dedicated to learning activities). Slovenia has a favourable position compared with the OECD average on the following indicators: i) the quality of educational material, such as textbooks, library materials, laboratory equipment, physical infrastructure, heating, etc.; ii) a shortage of education staff (there being no shortage of teachers in Slovenia); iii) certified teachers;14 iv) class size; v) the pupil/teacher ratio; and vi) room(s) where pupils can do their homework. However, there is still significant room for improvement in the 12 PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) is an international survey of reading, mathematics and science literacy conducted by the OECD. It covers 15-year old pupils regardless of the school they attend. Carried out in three-year cycles, the survey is aimed at capturing data on pupils’ competencies that are needed in professional or private life and are important for individuals and society. 13 The survey included 72 countries. 14 In Slovenia teachers have to pass a state professional examination in training and education. In other countries they have to obtain a licence. Figure 30: Shares of 15-year olds performing below proficiency level 2 in science, mathematics and reading, Slovenia, 2006–2015, in % 0 5 10 15 20 25 Science Reading Mathematics Sh ar es , i n % Source: OECD, PISA. 2006 2009 2012 2015 EU target Figure 31: Index of enjoyment of learning science -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 M X CA P T U S IE N Z EE IS TR U K G R A U D K N O LU I L LV SE CL ES PL O EC D IT CH B E FR F I KR D E H U SK A T JP CZ S I N L In de x Source: OECD, PISA. 27Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Selected Topics Table 10: The average performance in mathematics, science and reading of 15-year olds (PISA), 2012 and 2015, in points Mathematicals Science Reading 2012 2015 2012 2015 2012 2015 Slovenia 501 510 514 513 481 505 OECD average 494 490 501 493 496 493 Australia 504 494 521 510 512 503 Austria 506 497 506 495 490 485 Belgium 515 507 505 502 509 499 Czech Republic 499 492 508 493 493 487 Chile 423 423 445 447 441 459 Denmark 500 511 498 502 496 500 Estonia 521 520 541 534 516 519 Finland 519 511 545 531 524 526 France 495 493 499 495 505 499 Greece 453 454 467 455 477 467 Ireland 501 504 522 503 523 521 Iceland 493 488 478 473 483 482 Italy 485 490 494 481 490 485 Israel 466 470 470 467 486 479 Japan 536 532 547 538 538 516 South Korea 554 524 538 516 536 517 Canada 518 516 525 528 523 527 Latvia 491 482 502 490 489 488 Luxembourg 490 486 491 483 488 481 Hungary 477 477 494 477 488 470 Mexico 413 408 415 416 424 423 Germany 514 506 524 509 508 509 Netherlands 523 512 522 509 511 503 Norway 489 502 495 498 504 513 New Zealand 500 495 516 513 512 509 Poland 518 504 526 501 518 506 Portugal 487 492 489 501 488 498 Slovakia 482 475 471 461 463 453 Spain 484 486 496 493 488 496 Sweden 478 494 485 493 483 500 Switzerland 531 521 515 506 509 492 Turkey 448 420 463 425 475 428 United States 481 470 497 496 498 497 United Kingdom 494 492 514 509 499 498 Source: OECD, PISA. intrinsic motivation to learn (enjoyment of science). Higher than the OECD average is the participation of pupils in extracurricular science-related activities16 and more schools offer a science club or science competitions. Education plays a significant role in economic and social development, which could be even better exploited if certain improvements were made in individual areas. The quality 16 They watch TV programmes about science, borrow or buy books on science topics, read science magazines or science articles in newspapers, attend a science club, etc. of human capital could thus also be increased by a further improvement in the basic level of literacy and the promotion of lifelong learning. st at is ti ca l a pp en di x 31Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Spring forecast 2017 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.1 2.3 2.5 3.6 3.2 2.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,896 36,003 35,917 37,332 38,570 39,769 41,625 43,675 45,577 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,973 17,504 17,439 18,107 18,693 19,262 20,158 21,152 22,081 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,700 21,800 21,700 22,800 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 82 81 83 Rate of registered unemployment 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 9.7 9.1 8.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.4 6.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.4 -1.8 0.0 2.6 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.8 1.6 2.0 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.5 0.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.9 0.6 3.1 5.7 5.6 5.9 6.0 5.1 4.8 Exports of goods 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 5.7 6.1 5.1 4.9 Exports of services 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 6.5 6.8 5.4 4.8 4.5 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 5.0 -3.7 2.1 4.2 4.6 6.2 6.5 5.6 5.1 Imports of goods 6.0 -4.3 2.9 3.8 5.0 6.6 6.8 5.7 5.2 Imports of services -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.3 2.2 4.1 5.0 4.8 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million 68 930 1,732 2,325 1,998 2,719 1,911 1,906 2,024 As a per cent share relative to GDP 0.2 2.6 4.8 6.2 5.2 6.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 Gross external debt, in EUR million 41,669 42,872 41,866 46,514 44,954 43,334 44,100* As a per cent share relative to GDP 112.9 119.1 116.6 124.6 116.6 109.0 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.107 1.067 1.068 1.068 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.0 -2.5 -4.0 2.0 0.5 2.8 3.5 2.7 2.0 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.8 55.0 54.0 52.1 51.7 52.0 51.7 51.3 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.7 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.5 2.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 As a % of GDP 20.4 20.3 19.7 18.7 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.3 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -4.9 -8.8 3.2 1.4 1.0 -3.1 7.0 7.0 6.0 As a % of GDP 20.2 19.3 20.0 19.6 19.5 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, April 2017). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; *End March 2017. 32 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.2 5.6 7.0 6.7 5.2 5.5 5.2 6.2 8.8 6.5 6.4 7.7 6.1 8.4 2.6 8.4 B Mining and quarrying -3.8 0.4 1.7 0.4 -14.4 -1.9 23.3 8.3 -7.9 10.1 -1.6 10.8 -0.8 6.8 11.4 9.3 C Manufacturing 4.3 6.0 8.3 6.8 5.8 6.3 5.3 7.5 10.3 7.7 7.5 7.9 6.8 9.0 3.1 9.0 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -14.2 2.5 -5.6 5.8 2.4 -0.5 2.2 -6.6 -5.9 -6.5 -3.4 3.9 0.6 4.7 -3.0 1.8 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 19.5 -8.1 -17.7 0.3 -8.9 -12.5 -8.3 -31.3 -21.4 -12.7 -9.2 19.8 -8.9 -10.5 -12.8 -13.8 Buildings 3.8 -4.0 2.4 -5.3 -1.1 -5.6 -4.2 -6.6 -11.6 5.7 19.1 36.7 1.0 0.9 -2.9 -11.3 Civil engineering 26.5 -9.8 -24.7 2.5 -11.5 -15.2 -10.0 -39.9 -24.9 -19.3 -19.0 15.2 -12.2 -14.3 -16.5 -15.1 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total 3.7 5.4 4.0 3.7 4.2 5.0 8.4 5.0 4.4 3.4 3.4 7.0 4.1 6.3 4.6 5.7 Transportation and storage 6.2 3.2 3.6 2.3 3.1 2.2 5.2 3.7 4.5 3.0 3.3 11.2 2.1 6.2 2.4 3.9 Information and communication activities 1.1 4.6 3.3 1.4 1.7 4.5 10.2 4.0 5.0 4.0 0.6 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 4.8 Professional, scientific and technical activities -1.8 3.5 -0.8 3.5 -0.4 2.6 7.7 0.8 0.9 -4.5 -0.2 0.8 2.5 1.0 2.6 2.2 Administrative and support service activities 2.5 11.6 10.1 14.2 15.5 9.7 8.0 12.2 6.5 8.7 13.8 10.9 13.5 20.2 8.7 9.9 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 2.4 5.7 10.2 4.9 6.8 4.5 6.6 9.0 9.1 8.8 13.6 13.4 8.1 9.8 3.5 4.9 Real turnover in retail trade 0.0 1.0 4.5 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 3.1 10.1 12.2 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.9 14.0 21.7 12.0 15.9 12.6 15.2 23.0 24.1 18.9 20.8 15.8 17.6 21.4 9.7 15.9 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 3.7 1.4 2.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 2.9 0.2 1.2 0.1 6.2 13.8 1.8 5.0 0.8 0.3 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -0.5 7.2 7.6 6.8 7.0 9.1 3.3 9.6 0.9 9.0 11.3 4.7 8.1 6.7 10.9 8.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -3.5 6.3 2.8 6.8 4.9 8.7 3.4 1.3 1.0 4.6 3.4 4.1 -2.9 7.4 8.3 10.2 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 1.4 7.7 10.3 6.9 8.2 9.3 3.2 17.4 0.8 10.9 17.1 5.2 14.2 6.3 12.1 8.1 Accommodation and food service activities 0.2 7.4 11.0 5.0 6.6 8.5 9.3 9.9 8.3 13.2 12.2 8.2 9.0 8.2 10.3 8.0 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 506.9 472.9 465.7 102.5 111.3 123.6 135.5 104.6 110.1 118.2 132.9 108.7 37.0 37.2 43.3 36.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -2.3 5.2 5.5 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 3.6 4.6 6.0 7.9 11.0 5.3 5 3.6 6.9 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 2 6 6 6 5 6 6 4 6 5 7 11 6 5 6 7 - in construction -11 -14 -10 -10 -14 -17 -14 -17 -15 -7 0 4 -13 -14 -15 -15 - in services 5 16 19 15 16 16 19 17 19 19 22 24 16 15 16 16 - in retail trade 9 15 19 17 16 14 13 23 14 25 16 19 19 6 5 15 Consumer confidence indicator -22 -11 -14 -15 -10 -8 -12 -18 -17 -12 -10 -7 -11 -7 -14 -5 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 33Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 6.2 3.5 8.4 3.6 5.5 8.8 4.4 8.9 10.2 7.3 2.6 10.3 7.4 2.8 7.8 8.8 7.0 3.1 12.4 1.4 - - -21.1 -10.8 27.4 77.5 10.0 7.1 7.9 -8.4 -6.1 -9.3 -24.6 9.7 50.3 33.2 -15.1 -18.4 5.6 11.0 15.4 22.6 - - 7.3 4.0 8.6 3.1 6.8 10.5 5.5 10.7 11.8 8.6 4.0 12.3 7.8 3.3 9.2 10.4 6.5 3.1 13.4 1.3 - - -0.1 2.6 3.6 0.7 -5.8 -6.0 -8.1 -7.4 -5.1 -5.3 -8.1 -6.0 -5.4 -8.0 -3.2 0.8 9.9 0.8 1.1 0.4 - - -10.7 -11.6 7.0 -22.2 -25.9 -29.7 -36.0 -27.4 -19.5 -17.9 -15.8 -14.9 -7.4 -15.2 -15.1 9.3 -9.5 21.1 41.5 27.8 - - -1.7 -7.0 2.6 -8.1 -9.4 -2.8 -7.5 -12.3 -13.4 -9.4 6.6 1.3 9.4 8.6 14.3 37.5 24.3 25.7 56.2 50.9 - - -14.1 -13.2 8.5 -28.3 -32.2 -39.3 -45.1 -32.5 -21.7 -21.0 -23.7 -20.9 -13.5 -23.1 -24.5 -2.0 -20.7 21.7 37.1 19.4 - - 4.7 6.4 12.3 7.0 4.7 6.5 3.8 4.0 4.7 4.5 -0.1 5.5 5.1 1.0 2.9 6.2 6.5 3.6 10.5 5.2 - - 0.6 3.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 5.5 2.2 4.1 4.6 4.6 -2.8 6.3 5.9 0.9 3.3 5.9 9.5 6.2 17.2 4.9 6.6 4.6 15.0 10.9 3.5 3.7 4.6 4.1 4.4 6.3 1.7 3.5 6.8 1.5 -0.3 0.5 3.2 1.4 3.9 4.7 2.9 7.2 13.6 3.1 -0.7 2.1 0.9 0.0 2.9 -0.3 -7.4 0.2 -5.7 -7.3 -0.1 6.4 4.2 -3.7 2.0 -2.6 10.5 9.7 10.8 3.6 11.4 13.7 11.7 8.2 8.3 3.5 8.1 9.6 8.3 6.9 13.4 22.1 7.2 9.0 15.8 15.8 - - 5.1 3.8 7.8 8.3 6.0 13.3 7.9 8.6 10.9 8.0 5.2 13.8 8.0 10.7 15.4 14.6 15.8 9.0 15.4 8.3 - - 0.8 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.8 3.7 2.0 0.5 1.6 4.3 1.3 5.6 2.4 7.7 11.4 11.2 14.0 8.9 13.4 7.6 - - 13.1 9.4 19.9 16.8 15.7 33.0 21.1 25.4 30.6 17.1 12.2 27.7 18.6 16.9 22.8 22.6 19.5 9.0 18.8 9.5 - - 0.8 -2.1 5.6 5.9 -0.2 2.2 -1.1 -1.9 3.0 2.4 -5.6 5.6 0.8 2.9 6.8 9.0 16.1 8.6 16.7 4.8 - - 7.0 1.1 0.6 8.8 9.3 7.0 12.8 -0.4 2.5 0.4 8.1 6.9 14.6 13.7 12.6 7.2 5.0 2.5 6.5 27.1 - - 6.4 0.9 5.0 5.1 6.8 2.7 -5.0 8.5 -0.5 -3.1 2.3 1.5 15.3 -5.9 11.4 7.0 -2.8 -3.6 20.9 -1.6 - - 7.3 1.2 -3.0 11.7 11.0 12.5 28.8 -5.7 3.9 2.3 10.9 9.2 14.3 26.9 13.6 7.4 10.0 9.7 -3.0 46.7 - - 7.0 6.2 8.7 13.0 7.8 12.8 9.2 9.0 6.6 9.2 12.4 10.8 16.9 14.2 10.3 11.8 7.0 6.2 11.0 13.5 - - 44.2 49.0 40.3 46.2 33.7 34.2 36.7 36.0 37.3 36.8 39.1 36.3 42.9 46.3 42.9 43.6 35.0 34.2 39.5 36.8 - - 5.8 5.7 5.3 6.6 3.9 3.5 3.5 5.6 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.5 6.1 7.1 8.1 8.6 10.1 10.5 12.4 11.7 9.6 12.3 5 6 6 7 4 5 4 8 6 5 5 7 3 6 7 7 9 11 12 9 6 9 -20 -15 -14 -14 -15 -16 -19 -16 -15 -14 -12 -8 -2 -2 -1 2 -1 7 6 10 8 13 17 18 18 20 16 17 19 21 17 18 19 18 19 22 22 21 22 23 26 27 24 23 23 14 14 12 28 22 20 10 14 18 20 24 30 10 18 19 13 17 27 14 12 33 -6 -11 -14 -10 -16 -19 -19 -17 -18 -16 -13 -12 -11 -11 -10 -9 -3 -8 -9 -5 -6 -3 34 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 917.9 917.4 920.4 919.7 917.5 914.5 917.8 917.8 919.7 917.7 926.2 927.6 917.3 917.3 915.0 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 797.8 804.6 817.2 798.0 805.0 807.1 808.5 803.0 817.2 820.3 828.3 827.5 804.9 807.1 805.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 35.4 29.9 23.1 32.8 30.5 29.4 26.9 23.9 23.8 22.1 22.8 22.3 30.5 30.5 29.5 In industry, construction 252.4 255.2 260.3 250.4 255.2 257.3 257.9 254.7 260.7 262.5 263.3 261.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 Of which: in manufacturing 178.3 181.0 186.7 178.8 179.9 181.6 183.6 184.1 186.2 187.3 189.0 189.7 179.9 180.6 180.9 in construction 54.0 54.3 53.9 51.8 55.3 55.7 54.5 50.9 54.6 55.4 54.7 52.2 55.3 55.6 55.5 In services 510.0 519.6 533.8 514.9 519.3 520.4 523.7 524.4 532.7 535.7 542.3 544.0 519.2 520.4 519.5 Of which: in public administration 48.8 48.1 48.4 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.4 48.6 48.6 48.6 48.0 48.3 48.2 in education, health-services, social work 122.2 124.0 127.7 123.3 124.1 123.3 125.5 125.9 127.6 127.3 130.0 130.8 124.1 124.1 122.8 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 703.0 713.1 730.5 704.2 712.9 715.9 719.3 716.2 730.2 734.6 741.1 740.5 712.7 714.9 714.3 In enterprises and organisations 652.6 662.3 680.2 654.6 661.5 664.6 668.6 667.5 679.6 683.6 690.2 691.1 661.3 663.5 663.0 By those self-employed 50.5 50.8 50.3 49.7 51.4 51.4 50.6 48.7 50.7 51.0 50.9 49.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.8 91.6 86.7 93.8 92.1 91.1 89.2 86.9 87.0 85.8 87.2 87.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 120.1 112.7 103.2 121.6 112.5 107.4 109.3 114.8 102.5 97.4 97.9 100.1 112.4 110.2 109.6 Female 59.6 57.5 52.4 60.0 57.7 55.9 56.2 56.6 52.3 50.6 50.2 49.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 By age: 15 to 29 30.4 26.7 22.5 30.0 26.5 23.9 26.4 26.1 21.7 20.5 21.6 20.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 aged over 50 37.3 36.7 36.5 37.8 36.8 36.2 36.1 38.6 36.8 35.4 35.0 36.9 36.8 36.7 36.6 Primary education or less 33.8 32.3 30.2 35.3 32.0 30.5 31.2 33.8 30.0 28.2 28.8 30.6 31.9 31.4 31.0 For more than 1 year 59.9 59.7 55.1 61.1 60.1 59.1 58.4 58.5 56.0 53.5 52.3 51.2 59.9 60.0 59.5 Those receiving benefits 26.6 23.7 23.1 28.7 22.4 21.4 22.2 28.9 21.3 20.5 21.5 27.3 22.4 21.8 21.8 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 13.1 12.3 11.2 13.2 12.3 11.7 11.9 12.5 11.1 10.6 10.6 11.1 12.3 12.0 12.0 Male 12.0 11.1 10.2 12.3 11.0 10.3 10.7 11.8 10.1 9.4 9.5 10.4 11.0 10.7 10.6 Female 14.3 13.7 12.4 14.4 13.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.8 13.8 13.6 13.6 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -4.6 -6.4 -13.5 -1.4 -7.9 -5.5 8.3 -2.9 -10.4 -4.7 4.5 1.7 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.5 15.8 14.2 3.5 2.2 2.8 7.4 3.0 2.0 2.7 6.5 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 Redundancies 83.9 81.3 75.7 24.4 16.3 17.3 23.3 23.8 15.4 16.3 20.3 17.1 5.2 5.3 6.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 74.0 71.0 74.9 21.8 19.0 16.9 13.3 23.6 20.6 16.1 14.5 12.6 6.0 5.7 5.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 33.2 32.6 28.6 7.5 7.5 8.6 9.1 6.0 7.2 7.5 7.9 4.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 25.1 23.2 19.2 22.6 23.3 23.7 23.3 21.6 20.0 18.2 17.1 16.8 23.6 23.2 23.3 As % of labour force 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterlyFigure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 35Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 913.6 914.8 917.9 918.8 916.7 916.2 918.0 919.4 919.3 919.9 919.8 916.9 916.6 919.6 926.6 927.9 924.1 926.4 927.5 928.8 933.4 805.6 810.1 810.4 811.4 803.6 798.0 801.9 809.2 813.9 817.6 820.0 817.8 818.7 824.4 829.3 831.1 824.5 822.7 826.2 833.6 842.3 29.3 29.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.7 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.2 22.3 22.4 27.3 256.9 258.4 259.6 259.8 254.3 252.7 254.1 257.4 259.7 260.7 261.7 262.1 262.0 263.5 264.6 265.1 260.1 258.7 260.4 264.6 266.6 181.3 182.5 183.6 184.1 183.0 183.2 184.1 184.9 185.6 186.2 186.8 186.8 187.1 188.1 188.9 189.6 188.6 188.6 189.6 190.9 191.5 55.6 56.0 56.1 55.7 51.6 49.8 50.2 52.7 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.3 55.2 55.7 56.0 55.9 52.2 50.8 51.5 54.3 55.6 519.4 522.3 523.8 524.8 522.5 521.4 524.0 527.8 530.4 533.2 534.6 533.5 534.6 538.8 541.8 543.2 541.8 541.7 543.6 546.6 548.5 48.3 48.2 47.9 48.3 48.0 47.9 48.1 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 48.7 48.4 48.4 48.5 48.7 48.6 122.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 125.5 125.0 125.8 126.8 127.4 127.7 127.8 126.5 126.5 128.8 129.7 130.3 130.1 130.3 130.8 131.2 131.3 714.6 718.8 721.2 722.1 714.5 711.3 715.0 722.2 727.0 730.6 733.0 732.2 733.1 738.4 742.2 743.8 737.4 735.8 739.2 746.4 750.3 663.3 667.4 669.7 670.9 665.3 663.2 666.7 672.6 676.6 679.9 682.2 681.4 682.2 687.3 690.7 692.4 687.6 687.1 690.3 695.9 699.0 51.3 51.4 51.4 51.2 49.2 48.2 48.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 50.8 50.8 50.9 51.2 51.5 51.5 49.8 48.7 48.9 50.5 51.3 91.0 91.3 89.3 89.2 89.1 86.7 86.9 87.0 86.9 87.0 87.0 85.6 85.7 86.0 87.1 87.2 87.1 86.8 87.0 87.2 92.1 107.9 104.8 107.5 107.4 113.1 118.2 116.0 110.2 105.5 102.3 99.8 99.1 97.9 95.1 97.3 96.8 99.6 103.7 101.3 95.2 91.1 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.8 56.6 57.9 56.9 54.9 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.4 51.0 49.4 50.6 50.1 49.7 50.5 49.8 48.3 46.9 23.9 22.9 26.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 26.4 24.7 22.9 21.5 20.5 20.1 19.6 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.6 20.9 19.4 18.2 36.3 35.7 35.6 35.6 37.2 39.1 38.9 37.9 37.2 36.8 36.3 36.0 35.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 35.7 37.6 37.2 35.8 35.0 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.4 33.0 34.6 34.3 32.4 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.1 30.1 32.0 31.2 28.6 27.2 59.0 58.9 58.8 58.2 58.2 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 56.1 55.4 54.3 53.6 52.7 52.8 52.2 51.9 52.1 51.3 50.3 49.1 21.5 20.8 20.6 20.7 25.3 30.2 29.5 26.9 22.1 21.3 20.7 21.2 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.5 23.8 28.4 26.8 24.7 20.3 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.2 9.8 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.4 12.2 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.3 9.3 8.7 13.5 13.1 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.7 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.0 -1.6 -3.2 2.7 -0.1 5.7 5.1 -2.1 -5.8 -4.8 -3.2 -2.5 -0.7 -1.2 -2.8 2.1 -0.4 2.8 4.1 -2.4 -6.2 -4.1 0.7 1.4 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 4.5 1.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 10.3 12.9 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.0 6.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.1 8.3 12.0 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.7 7.0 5.4 4.8 3.1 6.7 6.9 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 6.8 5.3 5.1 4.0 6.3 6.3 9.7 6.9 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.4 23.6 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.3 19.5 19.0 18.2 17.6 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 36 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix WAGES EUR m 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2016 Q1 17 Apr17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,584 1,599 1,591 1.1 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.5 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,526 1,540 1,523 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,765 1,782 1,804 0.3 0.6 3.3 0.8 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.9 2.8 3.7 2.9 1.3 Industry (B–E) 1,585 1,609 1,559 3.2 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.3 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,394 1,399 1,417 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.7 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,691 1,703 1,695 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,310 1,296 1,270 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 1.6 2.2 -0.8 0.7 -3.3 0.2 B Mining and quarrying 2,057 2,071 2,041 5.9 -5.9 2.7 -9.2 -4.8 -4.8 -4.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 5.6 4.2 C Manufacturing 1,546 1,571 1,522 3.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,347 2,381 2,290 2.5 -1.0 1.3 -4.4 1.7 -3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 0.0 0.9 4.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,524 1,546 1,508 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.7 1.2 4.2 F Constrution 1,205 1,200 1,195 0.3 -0.2 1.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.4 1.1 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,437 1,452 1,471 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 2.5 H Transportation and storage 1,467 1,451 1,467 1.1 0.5 -0.5 0.7 1.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,085 1,089 1,109 -0.2 -1.0 1.4 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 2.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 J Information and communication 2,107 2,150 2,093 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.6 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.8 K Financial and insurance activities 2,293 2,338 2,381 1.2 2.1 1.5 3.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.0 -0.1 1.9 2.4 2.3 L Real estate activities 1,489 1,493 1,486 -1.2 -0.7 0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,739 1,756 1,730 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 1.0 1.4 N Administrative and support service activities 1,054 1,055 1,050 2.5 0.4 3.4 0.3 -0.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 3.8 3.1 2.9 1.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,873 1,905 1,921 1.0 2.1 4.7 1.8 0.7 0.4 5.2 6.8 4.3 5.4 2.3 1.5 P Education 1,688 1,704 1,715 0.0 -0.2 2.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.0 1.4 Q Human health and social work activities 1,760 1,768 1,808 -0.1 0.3 3.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.2 3.0 3.4 1.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,650 1,659 1,757 -0.5 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.4 1.7 3.3 1.9 S Other service activities 1,335 1,334 1,324 -1.1 -2.2 -0.9 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.0 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 37Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.5 3.7 2.1 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 3.3 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 -1.0 2.7 1.2 0.3 -0.4 4.8 2.5 0.2 2.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.1 4.4 4.8 3.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 4.8 0.5 -0.2 4.4 2.5 0.2 2.7 1.9 -1.8 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.4 7.1 4.1 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 -0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 -2.9 5.4 2.3 0.2 2.5 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 0.6 -0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 8.5 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.5 -0.9 1.3 -2.7 -0.2 2.7 -0.3 0.2 -7.1 -2.5 -0.6 -0.7 1.7 -0.5 -9.6 -6.6 -4.2 -5.4 -5.1 -1.5 1.4 3.4 -3.9 -0.4 9.2 -6.6 10.1 4.9 4.9 7.3 4.7 6.5 6.7 -0.3 6.4 2.2 1.8 1.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 4.7 2.4 0.5 2.9 1.6 -1.1 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.8 7.5 4.1 -0.2 2.7 1.4 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 12.1 -4.5 -0.7 3.4 4.3 -2.4 1.7 6.5 -7.1 5.9 1.8 3.5 -5.4 6.0 3.9 6.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.0 2.1 4.3 0.1 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.3 3.7 2.6 -2.7 5.6 2.3 -0.9 -0.1 4.7 6.3 2.1 4.3 1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 3.3 1.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.1 -0.4 4.4 1.8 0.3 -1.2 2.2 1.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.9 1.3 1.2 4.2 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.6 -0.1 1.8 1.4 0.4 -0.3 4.1 2.8 0.5 4.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 -1.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -10.7 10.7 1.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.5 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.7 3.7 1.1 2.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 0.5 1.0 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.5 -0.6 -1.9 1.8 -0.5 0.2 -0.5 1.9 2.5 0.6 2.2 0.5 2.9 1.3 -2.9 3.0 3.0 -2.4 5.8 2.9 1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.6 3.6 1.4 -1.2 7.1 1.2 1.8 1.4 3.6 2.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 2.3 -0.7 0.8 1.2 0.5 -3.9 7.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 3.4 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 -0.4 2.4 2.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 3.9 2.9 2.4 1.2 5.4 1.9 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 4.1 9.7 7.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 3.6 4.0 4.9 4.8 6.6 5.5 3.0 -1.4 1.1 1.6 1.9 4.2 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.1 2.9 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.1 3.6 4.9 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 3.1 -1.4 -1.8 0.4 1.0 -0.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 1.1 1.3 2.4 0.2 2.6 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -0.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.9 0.0 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.7 0.0 38 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 8 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.6 1.8 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages -0.3 0.9 1.7 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 1.3 1.7 2.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.6 1.9 0.4 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 Clothing and footwear -0.9 -0.9 -2.9 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6 -1.7 -0.5 -0.9 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 Housing, water, electricity, gas 0.1 -1.3 -0.1 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.5 2.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 Furnishings, household equipment -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 Medical, pharmaceutical products -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 Transport 0.2 -5.1 -0.1 -4.5 -4.4 -5.3 -6.3 -5.4 -4.8 -3.1 -0.3 3.9 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 Communications -1.9 1.1 2.9 -0.5 -1.3 1.7 4.3 4.0 5.2 2.6 2.2 2.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 Recreation and culture 0.8 1.0 0.2 4.2 1.5 0.3 -1.6 -2.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 Education 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 Catering services 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 HCPI 0.4 -0.8 0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -0.6 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3 -0.1 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 Domestic market -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 Non-domestic market -0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -2.0 -2.6 -1.2 0.5 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 euro area -0.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 0.1 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 non-euro area 1.1 -0.1 2.3 0.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.6 0.1 1.3 4.4 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 Import price indices -1.4 -0.7 2.7 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 0.9 4.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal 0.3 -2.8 0.8 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 -0.2 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 Real (deflator HICP) -0.1 -3.8 0.2 -3.6 -4.8 -3.5 -3.1 -0.7 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.4 Real (deflator ULC) -1.7 -3.5 1.1 -4.4 -4.3 -2.9 -2.3 0.8 2.6 0.6 0.2 USD / EUR 1.32881.1096 1.1066 1.1270 1.1047 1.1119 1.0949 1.1018 1.1293 1.1164 1.0789 1.0647 1.1150 1.1213 1.0996 1.1139 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 19 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 39Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.3 1.7 2.8 3.6 2.4 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 -1.4 -0.9 -2.8 1.8 -0.3 -2.9 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 1 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.6 -0.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -5.2 -4.5 -5.5 -6.2 -5.2 -5.3 -4 -3.8 -4.5 -0.9 -1 0.1 -0.1 3.3 4.3 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 5.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 6 2.3 2.2 3.4 2 1.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 2.1 2.9 -0.4 0.6 -0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 -1.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.9 1.5 -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.2 6.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -1.3 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -2 -3.4 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.3 3.9 5.1 4.0 4.7 4.6 -0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 0.1 2.7 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.0 -1.7 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 -2.8 -3.0 -3.6 -2.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1.1221 1.1235 1.0736 1.0877 1.0860 1.1093 1.1100 1.1339 1.1311 1.1229 1.1069 1.1212 1.1212 1.1026 1.0799 1.0543 1.0614 1.0643 1.0685 1.0723 1.1058 40 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 2,325 1,998 2,698 435 462 641 460 709 737 722 531 662 85 174 203 236 Goods 1,181 1,498 1,536 348 382 424 344 468 446 375 246 394 7 122 253 198 Exports 22,961 24,039 24,951 5,881 6,063 5,934 6,160 6,055 6,391 6,116 6,389 6,869 1,942 1,950 2,172 2,146 Imports 21,780 22,541 23,416 5,533 5,681 5,510 5,817 5,587 5,945 5,742 6,142 6,475 1,935 1,828 1,919 1,947 Services 1,697 2,019 2,286 394 524 609 492 475 552 717 542 546 216 163 145 186 Exports 5,558 6,025 6,513 1,260 1,511 1,730 1,524 1,378 1,556 1,874 1,705 1,513 523 486 502 586 Imports 3,862 4,006 4,227 866 987 1,121 1,032 903 1,004 1,157 1,163 967 307 323 357 400 Primary income -125 -982 -630 -114 -331 -285 -252 -77 -166 -232 -156 -152 -97 -60 -174 -103 Receipts 1,396 1,632 1,602 437 417 371 407 485 378 347 392 508 120 135 162 128 Expenditures 1,521 2,614 2,233 551 748 656 659 562 544 579 548 660 217 196 335 231 Secondary income -428 -537 -493 -193 -113 -107 -124 -158 -95 -138 -101 -127 -41 -50 -22 -45 Receipts 709 725 712 153 184 173 215 155 171 172 214 178 61 53 70 61 Expenditures 1,137 1,262 1,205 346 296 280 339 312 267 311 315 305 102 103 92 106 Capital account 157 371 -312 46 62 127 136 -38 -112 -63 -99 -47 25 7 29 55 Financial account 2,377 1,772 936 569 557 478 168 354 125 385 73 343 41 163 353 141 Direct investment -584 -1,238 -742 -348 -45 -218 -628 -322 -262 -243 84 -215 -187 -26 169 -50 Assets 155 278 226 93 301 23 -140 143 15 1 67 155 43 83 175 73 Liabilities 739 1,516 968 441 346 241 488 465 276 244 -18 371 231 110 6 123 Portfolio investment -3,968 2,929 4,210 689 1,684 -993 1,549 584 791 552 2,282 -514 1,070 339 275 -1,044 Financial derivatives -3 28 50 22 5 -9 10 -7 -4 31 30 31 2 0 3 -3 Other investment 6,843 166 -2,486 226 -1,110 1,746 -697 87 -361 95 -2,307 999 -800 -162 -148 1,229 Assets 4,815 -672 -2,071 434 -1,478 1,225 -853 92 -642 -1,087 -433 2 -1,053 -153 -273 1,091 Other equity 84 10 -3 10 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 -4 0 3 -2 0 0 Currency and deposits 5,037 -545 -1,974 90 -1,272 1,273 -636 -294 -581 -1,027 -71 -579 -863 -230 -179 1,093 Loans -299 -408 -207 -80 -224 -27 -78 10 -68 -36 -112 -49 -45 -18 -160 -4 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 8 -8 10 12 -3 -15 -2 7 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 Trade credit and advances -16 -4 176 341 27 -15 -357 314 118 -72 -184 505 -84 65 45 14 Other assets 1 283 -73 60 -7 8 222 54 -112 48 -63 125 -63 33 22 -8 Liabilities -2,028 -837 415 208 -369 -521 -156 4 -281 -1,182 1,874 -997 -253 9 -125 -138 Other equity 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Currency and deposits -831 -400 1,175 -178 -301 -37 116 548 -320 -406 1,353 -837 -112 -170 -18 63 Loans -1,246 -315 -854 378 -82 -376 -235 -491 -114 -562 313 -380 3 175 -259 -58 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -54 3 23 -7 4 2 4 11 12 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 Trade credit and advances -144 -101 138 9 3 -122 9 -78 152 -169 233 190 -168 23 148 -173 Other liabilities 240 -25 -68 5 7 12 -49 15 -12 -46 -25 30 23 -20 4 29 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 89 -113 -97 -20 23 -49 -67 10 -40 -50 -17 43 -43 12 54 9 Net errors and omissions -105 -596 -1,449 88 33 -290 -428 -317 -500 -273 -359 -272 -69 -19 121 -151 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,343 2,596 2,781 581 632 630 753 644 691 674 772 750 204 212 216 232 Intermediate goods 12,924 13,355 13,698 3,280 3,406 3,348 3,322 3,360 3,536 3,358 3,444 3,822 1,142 1,095 1,169 1,207 Consumer goods 7,668 7,989 8,462 2,003 2,040 1,904 2,042 2,058 2,178 2,059 2,167 2,258 615 658 767 696 Import of investment goods 2,774 2,968 3,255 658 713 720 877 722 825 789 919 817 240 232 241 248 Intermediate goods 13,417 13,803 13,843 3,453 3,541 3,376 3,432 3,347 3,551 3,378 3,567 3,972 1,231 1,133 1,177 1,200 Consumer goods 6,389 6,534 7,009 1,604 1,637 1,592 1,701 1,693 1,756 1,730 1,830 1,883 537 527 573 568 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 41Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 123 282 220 212 27 227 161 321 229 213 294 208 148 366 288 120 123 214 227 221 299 -5 231 183 172 -11 158 141 169 141 118 187 144 6 225 139 47 60 87 118 190 171 1,595 2,193 2,177 2,116 1,867 1,838 2,022 2,196 2,088 2,100 2,202 2,071 1,743 2,302 2,163 2,218 2,008 2,117 2,153 2,599 2,197 1,600 1,962 1,995 1,944 1,878 1,680 1,881 2,026 1,948 1,982 2,015 1,927 1,737 2,077 2,024 2,170 1,948 2,030 2,035 2,409 2,026 236 187 183 150 159 154 117 204 186 183 184 198 265 254 229 161 151 191 168 188 229 603 541 508 471 545 423 442 512 506 503 546 607 655 613 577 537 591 482 477 554 577 367 354 325 321 386 269 325 308 321 321 363 408 390 359 347 376 440 291 310 366 348 -75 -106 -119 -67 -66 -64 -13 0 -64 -50 -52 -83 -83 -66 -49 -51 -56 -23 -14 -116 -61 108 135 122 118 167 113 171 201 125 127 126 109 118 120 121 127 145 204 182 122 142 183 241 241 185 234 177 183 201 189 177 178 192 201 186 170 178 200 227 196 237 203 -33 -29 -27 -43 -54 -21 -84 -53 -33 -38 -25 -51 -40 -47 -31 -37 -33 -41 -45 -41 -41 53 59 76 60 78 55 52 47 60 54 57 59 55 58 72 66 76 62 58 58 68 85 89 103 103 132 76 136 100 93 91 83 110 95 106 103 103 109 103 103 99 109 38 33 79 62 -5 -7 -16 -15 -35 -39 -37 -8 -17 -38 10 -36 -73 -11 -17 -18 -16 15 323 145 471 -448 203 122 29 -71 140 56 347 -127 165 -1,252 1,598 -273 468 154 -279 136 -76 -91 -387 -9 -232 -236 72 -158 -358 52 45 -28 -186 -29 57 -62 89 25 -91 -149 81 -56 7 67 -8 -199 27 72 44 16 18 -20 124 -119 -3 122 -77 22 59 78 18 124 20 98 454 1 33 263 0 202 375 -34 -64 152 67 25 64 -15 -68 34 169 168 42 -151 202 491 526 532 373 1,040 -829 477 197 116 321 331 -99 574 1,179 530 -668 315 -161 358 -6 0 0 -3 14 -6 0 -1 8 2 -13 30 1 1 1 13 16 29 2 0 7 271 246 19 1 -718 45 -1,019 1,062 -169 -113 -79 42 -254 307 -1,884 502 -925 1,056 -27 -30 -307 -141 275 170 187 -1,210 -118 -245 455 -977 39 296 -42 -938 -107 -522 318 -230 21 287 -306 188 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 0 1 32 148 111 176 -923 -117 -393 216 -890 131 178 -3 -736 -289 -705 411 223 -246 69 -403 207 -27 4 -20 -13 -45 -11 -22 43 -31 -38 2 -21 -15 -1 -22 -25 -66 -24 -27 2 -22 -5 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -143 114 15 42 -414 71 117 125 -4 4 117 -33 -203 164 144 3 -331 192 187 127 69 1 14 65 -18 175 -64 51 67 -52 -59 -1 15 15 19 61 -71 -53 100 57 -32 -67 -412 29 151 185 -492 -163 775 -607 -808 152 375 -84 -685 -414 1,362 -184 695 -1,034 314 -276 495 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -114 112 66 -62 39 797 -288 -734 187 228 101 -333 -174 691 -12 673 -908 184 -112 583 -361 43 -37 167 -365 15 -256 -250 -87 -100 73 -109 -320 -133 385 -125 52 -72 22 -330 -49 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -31 81 45 -4 -32 -252 132 43 -2 76 78 -68 -140 38 155 79 -1 -50 114 126 -6 -34 18 30 -44 -35 32 98 -115 11 -14 -8 -8 107 -145 131 -126 -29 -5 -5 40 -33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -23 -35 21 -43 -45 27 28 -45 -29 2 -13 -18 -18 -15 0 -33 17 27 -45 61 -2 -146 7 -155 197 -470 -17 -23 -277 -265 -34 -201 146 -258 -162 -1,551 1,514 -323 265 -55 -482 -147 167 231 246 243 264 177 221 246 226 231 234 231 191 252 249 259 264 229 230 292 N/A 935 1,206 1,219 1,160 944 1,060 1,122 1,179 1,176 1,168 1,191 1,113 1,004 1,240 1,202 1,218 1,024 1,210 1,193 1,419 N/A 471 737 701 694 646 602 686 769 692 699 787 722 535 802 710 736 722 663 700 894 N/A 210 262 271 283 322 207 237 278 277 262 286 299 223 267 293 312 314 259 247 312 N/A 976 1,201 1,205 1,161 1,067 1,045 1,119 1,183 1,139 1,211 1,201 1,142 1,001 1,235 1,172 1,281 1,114 1,276 1,241 1,455 N/A 459 565 590 565 546 483 582 627 594 575 586 546 551 634 616 645 569 556 610 717 N/A 42 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2014 2015 2016 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 263 2,327 4,618 265 282 445 642 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 1699 1,942 2,175 Central government (S. 1311) 7,240 7,112 6,273 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 7,301 7,380 7,387 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 685 622 576 654 631 633 633 633 635 634 631 624 623 618 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,762 8,856 9,154 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 8,825 8,873 8,857 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 11,729 10,502 9,664 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 10,941 10,819 10,688 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 1,485 1,432 1,411 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 1,435 1,417 1,411 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,684 3,206 3,541 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 3,365 3,007 3,181 3,442 3,312 3,904 3,713 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 25,155 23,816 23,969 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 24078 24,532 24,226 In foreign currency 950 824 672 1,059 1,003 983 957 955 937 904 874 845 839 839 Securities, total 7,469 7,059 5,889 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 7,574 7,512 7,486 7,494 7,478 7,606 7,568 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 25,843 25,885 26,497 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 25,652 26,330 26,442 Overnight 10,157 12,717 15,081 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 12,130 12,991 13,244 With agreed maturity – short-term 5,955 4,481 3,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 4,664 4,341 4,325 With agreed maturity – long-term 9,267 8,196 6,829 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 8,349 8,410 8,322 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 464 491 632 413 405 435 466 512 576 587 539 509 588 551 Deposits in foreign currency, total 510 655 687 566 604 601 585 612 620 616 616 623 618 651 Overnight 354 508 564 401 447 442 433 464 469 468 475 484 478 498 With agreed maturity – short-term 84 80 65 86 77 81 75 71 77 73 69 71 71 82 With agreed maturity – long-term 72 67 58 79 80 78 77 77 74 75 72 68 69 71 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 0.98 0.37 0.21 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.28 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.06 3.54 2.66 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 3.5 3.39 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.39 3.14 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.25 2.46 2.07 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 .. .. 1.90 .. 0.81 1.71 .. INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.16 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.210 -0.019 -0.264 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.005 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 -0.037 -0.054 -0.088 6-month rates 0.309 0.054 -0.164 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.073 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.035 0.020 -0.015 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.012 -0.755 -0.747 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 -0.729 -0.728 -0.784 6-month rates 0.066 -0.688 -0.671 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 -0.672 -0.674 -0.754 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 43Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2,327 2,539 2,759 2,987 3,144 3,378 3,631 3,861 4,012 4,219 4,390 4,432 4,618 4,621 4,770 4,823 4,937 5,041 7,112 7,212 6,957 7,022 6,739 6,853 6,813 6,861 6,850 6,872 6,769 6,391 6,273 6,350 6,246 6,029 5,856 5,784 622 630 614 601 602 594 591 589 587 571 564 561 576 591 587 588 588 581 8,856 8,815 8,789 8,830 8,863 8,891 8,920 8,892 8,930 8,974 9,041 9,075 9,154 9,174 9,208 9,305 9,352 9,413 10,502 10,527 10,046 9,904 9,953 9,870 9,771 9,706 9,520 9,455 9,485 9,473 9,664 9,759 9,814 9,720 9,790 9,745 1,432 1,422 1,328 1,397 1,326 1,332 1,298 1,298 1,283 1,310 1,352 1,376 1,408 1,382 1,397 1,222 1,222 1,248 3,206 3,574 4,030 3,318 3,727 3,572 3,240 3,578 3,625 3,610 3,642 4,100 3,541 3,555 3,573 4,212 3,910 3,860 23,789 24,152 24,088 23,407 23,796 23,552 23,026 23,272 23,149 23,172 23,314 23,796 23,969 24,066 24,020 24,759 24,613 24,492 823 794 802 778 758 751 759 743 717 714 711 714 672 683 670 656 642 630 7,079 7,178 6,795 6,812 6,580 6,735 6,777 6,836 6,848 6,823 6,743 6,379 5,885 5,968 6,038 5,562 5,366 5,412 25,885 26,315 26,067 25,869 25,689 25,697 25,364 25,725 25,643 25,612 25,811 25,976 26,497 26,421 26,508 27,165 27,190 27,177 12,717 13,255 13,553 13,405 13,504 13,668 13,819 14,274 14,475 14,365 14,505 14,839 15,081 15,253 15,487 15,776 15,858 16,019 4,481 4,393 4,251 4,174 3,984 3,942 3,777 3,697 3,507 3,571 3,584 3,442 3,955 3,706 3,707 3,706 3,651 3,472 8,196 8,148 7,702 7,595 7,572 7,390 7,110 7,077 7,040 7,047 7,084 7,041 6,829 6,730 6,667 7,026 6,976 6,969 491 519 561 695 629 697 658 677 621 629 638 654 632 732 647 657 705 717 655 0 687 686 658 684 708 683 686 705 680 705 687 711 695 705 682 684 508 529 544 550 529 553 561 540 550 565 549 567 564 586 567 582 561 557 80 79 78 75 69 70 86 82 75 81 72 78 65 69 72 69 68 74 67 66 65 61 60 61 61 61 61 59 59 60 58 56 56 54 53 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.23 0.19 0.18 0.11 0.15 3.16 3.06 2.91 2.75 2.71 2.57 2.54 2.62 2.45 2.53 2.68 2.57 2.49 2.55 2.63 2.60 2.66 1.00 0.75 .. 1.85 2.58 3.84 2.16 .. .. .. 1.6 2.74 1.06 1.31 1.06 3.28 2.99 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.126 -0.146 -0.184 -0.229 -0.249 -0.257 -0.268 -0.295 -0.298 -0.302 -0.309 -0.313 -0.316 -0.326 -0.329 -0.329 -0.330 -0.330 -0.040 -0.061 -0.115 -0.134 -0.138 -0.145 -0.162 -0.188 -0.189 -0.199 -0.207 -0.215 -0.218 -0.236 -0.241 -0.241 -0.246 -0.251 -0.792 -0.752 -0.775 -0.760 -0.727 -0.734 -0.763 -0.766 -0.743 -0.741 -0.730 -0.738 -0.738 -0.728 -0.726 -0.727 -0.731 -0.729 -0.737 -0.685 -0.723 -0.698 -0.653 -0.646 -0.676 -0.688 -0.658 -0.647 -0.647 -0.663 -0.669 -0.662 -0.666 -0.667 -0.669 -0.661 44 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 9 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,492.0 15,714.1 15,840.8 3,635.8 3,972.6 3,864.3 4,241.4 3,685.8 4,108.9 3,884.6 4,161.5 3,957.9 1,227.9 1,429.6 Current revenues 14,377.0 14,702.6 15,203.0 3,413.6 3,756.8 3,596.3 3,935.9 3,511.7 3,948.8 3,802.7 3,939.9 3,798.6 1,135.8 1,367.4 Tax revenues 13,191.6 13,746.4 14,240.1 3,252.4 3,524.1 3,277.4 3,692.4 3,344.3 3,659.7 3,516.4 3,719.7 3,581.5 1,036.0 1,287.9 Taxes on income and profit 2,385.9 2,584.6 2,680.8 601.7 786.4 504.0 692.5 634.2 811.4 542.4 692.8 669.3 212.5 206.9 Social security contributions 5,272.5 5,473.9 5,720.6 1,339.5 1,353.4 1,357.7 1,423.3 1,395.1 1,423.5 1,424.2 1,477.8 1,472.6 450.3 453.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 20.2 19.7 19.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 5.6 4.8 5.1 4.8 5.2 5.0 1.5 2.0 Taxes on property 244.2 237.8 255.2 26.9 41.7 85.2 84.1 27.2 46.3 104.5 77.2 27.4 30.3 32.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,191.2 5,347.1 5,432.9 1,246.0 1,322.2 1,305.9 1,473.1 1,233.7 1,365.4 1,430.5 1,403.4 1,326.7 345.1 582.2 Taxes on international trade & transactions 77.7 82.5 81.9 21.3 21.5 20.2 19.6 22.3 19.8 20.8 19.0 21.4 6.5 7.3 Other taxes -0.2 0.6 48.7 12.5 -6.0 -0.2 -5.8 27.0 -11.7 -10.8 44.2 59.1 -10.2 3.3 Non-tax revenues 1,185.4 956.2 962.9 161.2 232.7 318.8 243.5 167.5 289.0 286.3 220.2 217.2 99.7 79.5 Capital revenues 51.4 96.3 95.8 10.8 16.2 26.2 43.2 14.7 17.5 21.2 42.4 16.5 8.3 9.6 Grants 18.9 12.2 10.3 2.3 1.7 4.7 3.4 1.3 1.8 5.7 1.5 0.6 3.9 0.1 Transferred revenues 4.5 20.6 51.1 1.2 0.3 19.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 50.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 1,040.3 882.4 480.5 207.9 197.5 217.9 259.1 157.3 140.8 5.0 177.4 142.2 79.9 52.3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,751.2 16,956.4 16,492.1 4,290.6 3,980.9 3,974.9 4,710.0 4,223.2 3,882.0 3,985.6 4,401.4 4,333.4 1,304.6 1,439.9 Current expenditures 7,042.1 7,168.4 7,406.2 1,969.7 1,678.3 1,608.5 1,912.0 1,977.9 1,774.3 1,733.2 1,920.7 2,063.6 553.1 634.1 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,610.4 3,610.2 3,785.4 923.7 903.4 875.0 908.2 925.4 970.7 928.6 960.8 961.2 291.5 296.1 Expenditures on goods and services 2,232.3 2,311.2 2,371.3 502.5 558.9 546.1 703.7 535.5 552.6 569.3 713.9 556.9 173.7 181.7 Interest payments 1,097.4 1,042.6 1,074.2 497.2 178.4 148.0 218.9 489.5 181.5 206.1 197.1 518.4 72.8 141.5 Reserves 102.1 204.4 175.3 46.2 37.6 39.5 81.1 27.5 69.6 29.2 48.9 27.1 15.0 14.8 Current transfers 7,591.9 7,540.1 7,698.4 1,936.5 1,863.9 1,899.4 1,840.3 1,974.0 1,896.0 1,918.5 1,910.0 2,040.0 586.6 581.8 Subsidies 467.4 399.0 396.8 201.2 79.1 47.7 71.0 186.4 78.4 42.9 89.0 170.4 15.5 14.0 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,335.0 6,370.8 6,494.8 1,564.2 1,592.7 1,657.7 1,556.2 1,604.7 1,619.1 1,678.9 1,592.1 1,643.9 510.1 507.5 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 714.3 713.8 727.1 156.5 180.5 186.0 190.7 167.5 179.3 186.8 193.6 211.3 56.2 57.8 Current transfers abroad 75.2 56.5 79.7 14.5 11.6 8.1 22.3 15.4 19.2 9.8 35.3 14.4 4.8 2.5 Capital expenditures 1,444.4 1,520.0 785.2 175.3 285.2 350.4 709.1 98.6 115.5 213.6 357.5 108.9 122.8 166.9 Capital transfers 270.0 295.0 174.9 37.9 58.7 60.8 137.5 32.9 26.9 23.7 91.4 22.8 28.2 29.7 Payments to the EU budget 402.9 432.9 427.4 171.1 94.8 55.8 111.2 139.9 69.3 96.6 121.7 98.0 13.8 27.5 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,259.2 -1,242.3 -651.3 -654.8 -8.4 -110.6 -468.6 -537.4 226.9 -101.0 -239.9 -375.5 -76.6 -10.4 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 45Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Statistical Appendix 2015 2016 2017 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 1,388.0 1,423.9 1,329.1 1,179.0 1,177.6 1,352.7 1,391.7 1,364.5 1,161.5 1,390.7 1,332.4 1,354.5 1,306.7 1,500.3 1,444.7 1,190.4 1,322.9 1,532.5 1,245.3 1,323.2 1,234.0 1,132.3 1,145.5 1,299.8 1,297.7 1,351.3 1,152.7 1,382.1 1,267.9 1,312.4 1,287.7 1,339.8 1,428.6 1,148.3 1,221.7 1,460.7 1,178.2 1,226.3 1,176.4 1,080.9 1,086.9 1,244.9 1,217.0 1,197.8 1,096.1 1,233.4 1,186.9 1,246.3 1,213.6 1,259.8 1,330.4 1,093.1 1,158.0 1,344.2 228.6 257.0 214.8 212.6 206.8 219.0 289.0 303.4 63.8 270.6 208.1 210.2 222.5 260.1 217.0 228.4 223.8 330.5 457.4 512.4 465.0 460.6 469.4 473.5 478.6 471.4 482.7 461.3 480.3 464.8 475.0 538.0 496.7 484.3 491.7 508.2 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.9 30.3 21.0 11.6 9.0 6.6 6.2 12.0 28.1 29.7 35.1 39.7 27.4 34.1 15.8 11.0 7.5 8.8 15.1 454.4 436.5 462.9 393.8 376.9 469.4 502.9 393.0 507.2 472.8 450.4 482.9 471.7 448.8 534.2 415.0 377.6 512.6 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.2 6.4 5.5 7.8 7.5 6.7 6.1 6.3 6.1 7.2 8.1 6.4 0.0 -9.1 13.7 -4.5 17.8 68.0 -73.4 -6.3 5.5 -15.9 -0.5 53.1 2.3 -11.1 63.5 -50.8 46.4 -30.6 67.1 96.9 57.6 51.3 58.6 54.9 80.7 153.4 56.6 148.7 80.9 66.1 74.2 79.9 98.2 55.3 63.6 116.5 19.9 13.6 4.8 6.0 3.9 6.5 4.7 6.3 7.2 5.6 8.4 5.6 9.8 27.0 5.4 4.4 6.7 6.2 0.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.5 84.3 90.2 40.4 26.8 45.8 88.4 6.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 36.1 8.2 133.0 10.5 37.4 94.3 65.1 1,410.3 1,859.8 1,302.6 1,416.7 1,504.0 1,259.8 1,306.7 1,315.4 1,374.4 1,313.4 1,297.8 1,367.6 1,391.0 1,642.8 1,451.7 1,310.4 1,571.3 1,242.1 574.1 703.9 617.6 641.3 719.0 575.1 592.2 607.1 548.2 597.9 587.2 631.4 617.1 672.1 648.7 594.4 820.5 561.9 296.5 315.6 305.8 308.4 311.2 299.6 305.3 365.7 309.5 313.6 305.5 315.6 321.6 323.6 317.7 317.2 326.3 312.5 190.2 331.9 157.6 178.2 199.7 167.6 197.9 187.2 183.3 205.0 181.0 179.7 210.2 324.0 176.3 170.7 209.9 168.2 72.5 5.0 143.6 145.0 200.9 98.2 77.5 5.7 45.0 69.7 91.4 122.9 69.7 4.5 149.4 96.0 273.0 71.4 14.9 51.4 10.5 9.7 7.3 9.6 11.5 48.5 10.4 9.6 9.2 13.2 15.7 20.0 5.3 10.5 11.4 9.8 601.2 657.3 615.9 654.7 703.4 621.6 642.2 632.2 717.3 602.0 599.1 603.0 632.3 674.7 724.5 636.0 679.5 600.5 15.6 41.4 30.6 54.2 101.7 12.4 46.2 19.8 10.3 11.2 21.5 18.5 27.8 42.7 91.1 62.3 17.0 20.5 517.8 531.0 529.0 534.0 541.6 542.1 535.0 542.1 635.0 528.0 515.9 523.7 528.2 540.2 541.5 542.3 560.1 546.8 54.1 78.8 47.4 63.7 56.4 55.0 56.9 67.4 66.4 62.0 58.4 55.8 62.5 75.3 86.5 28.4 96.4 24.4 13.8 6.1 8.9 2.8 3.7 12.1 4.1 2.9 5.6 0.8 3.4 5.0 13.7 16.6 5.5 3.0 6.0 8.8 153.2 389.0 25.8 34.3 38.5 33.2 37.3 45.0 70.4 75.7 67.5 68.5 86.2 202.8 35.7 37.1 36.1 39.4 40.7 67.1 9.8 14.4 8.7 9.4 5.9 11.6 7.5 6.6 9.6 30.2 20.9 40.3 10.0 5.7 7.1 7.2 41.2 42.5 33.6 71.9 34.4 20.6 29.2 19.5 30.9 31.3 34.3 34.4 34.4 52.9 32.8 37.2 28.0 33.0 -22.3 -435.9 26.6 -237.7 -326.3 92.9 85.0 49.1 -213.0 77.3 34.7 -13.1 -84.3 -142.5 -7.0 -120.0 -248.5 290.5 46 Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 5/2017 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – consumer price index, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, GD – Companies, HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PDII – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SITC – Standard International Trade Classification, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, UL – Official Gazette , USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added. Acronyms Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 – Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 – Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 – Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30 – Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 – Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D – Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E – Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AU – Australia, AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CA – Canada CH-Switzerland, CL – Chile, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR- France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IS – Iceland, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, KR - South Korea, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, MX – Mexiko, NL-Netherlands, NZ - New Zealand, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America No. 5, Vol. XXIII, 2017