.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > O Ü) O u 0) o cu .Q E cu > o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 11 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Ana Vidrih, MSc, (Economic developments in Slovenia); Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Mojca lindič, MSc (Labour market situation of youth during the crisis); Valerija korošec, PhD (The UN Human Development Report 2011), Mateja Kovač, MSc (Productivity in the agriculture, forestry and fishing activities); Urška Lušina, MSc (time series seasonal adjustment) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................15 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................18 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................21 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................24 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................27 Labour market situation of youth during the crisis...................................................................................................29 The UN Human Development Report 2011................................................................................................................30 Productivity in the agriculture, forestry and fishing activities...............................................................................31 Boxes Box 1: Autumn forecasts of the EC and OECD...............................................................................................................8 Box 2: Economic growth in the third quarter of 2011...............................................................................................10 Box 3: Real estate market in Q3 2011...........................................................................................................................13 Box 4: Labour Force Survey - the third quarter of 2011...........................................................................................16 Box 5: Government financing needs in 2012..............................................................................................................25 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Prospects for economic growth in the euro area have deteriorated significantly. Sentiment indicators show a moderation of the already weak GDP growth in the euro area in the last quarter of this year. In November, the EC and OECD thus revised downwards their forecasts for next year's economic growth, particularly due to uncertainty related to the sovereign debt crisis. In view of subdued economic activity and lower expectations, coupled with aggravated conditions in the financial sector and deteriorating public finances, both institutions deem restoring financial market stability essential for bringing negative movements to a halt. However, amid growing tensions on government bond and interbank markets, the latest growth forecasts remain subject to downside risks. Slovenia's GDP declined in Q3, following a standstill in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters as a whole, it was up 0.8% y-o-y, which is lower than expected in IMAD's Autumn Forecast. In Q3, GDP dropped 0.2% relative to Q2 (seasonally adjusted) and 0.5% compared with the same quarter last year. According to the available data, GDP fell in only three other EU countries besides Slovenia in the third quarter. Economic activity in Slovenia was otherwise still propelled by export growth, but this moderated y-o-y (5.6%). Domestic consumption was lower than in the same quarter last year for the second quarter running, mainly due to a further decline in gross fixed capital formation, which was down 13.0% y-o-y. Household consumption has persisted around last year's level throughout 2011, according to our estimate, mainly due to tightened labour market conditions, deteriorated consumer confidence and ongoing general uncertainty. In the last two quarters, government consumption also fell below last year's level, being down 0.5% y-o-y in Q3. The labour market situation worsened in Q3 and the growth of the average gross wage continues to slow. In Q3, the number of employed persons excluding self-employed farmers declined by 0.4% (seasonally adjusted), while registered unemployment grew by 0.5%. The seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate was thus slightly higher (11.8%). The modest growth in registered unemployment seen in previous months came to a halt in October and November, according to seasonally adjusted data. In the first nine months of 2011, the y-o-y growth in the gross wage (2.3%) is still driven by wage rises in the private sector, while the average gross wage in the public sector has been left unchanged for nearly three years. Y-o-y inflation remained at 2.7% in November. Consumer prices were up 0.3% in November and inflation was, besides weak economic activity, mainly related to food and energy prices. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, prices in the euro area were up 3.0% y-o-y in November. The net flow of loans to non-banking sectors was positive in October, but in the first ten months as a whole, the volume of domestic non-banking sector loans with domestic banks shrank by EUR 226.2 m. In October, loans were net repaid only by NFIs, while all other groups recorded modest growth. Enterprises and NFIs net repaid EUR 372.1 m in loans in the first ten months. Enterprises and NFIs are thus seeking sources of finance abroad, having net borrowed EUR 256.2 m from the rest of the world in the first nine months. Banks net repaid EUR 1.1 bn in foreign deposits and loans in the first three quarters of this year, which is nearly one third more than in the same period last year. The quality of banks' assets continues to deteriorate, as the share of non-performing claims climbed to 5.3% of all bank claims, which is the highest level in the last 15 years. The rapid deterioration of the quality of banks' assets is also reflected in the intensive creation of additional reservations and provisions, which exceeded EUR 700 m in the first ten months, being thus almost 40% higher than in the same period of last year. The consolidated balance of public financing recorded a deficit of EUR 1,234 m in the first eight months of the year. General government revenue totalled EUR 9.7 bn in that period and was up 5.3% y-o-y. Expenditure amounted to EUR 10.9 bn, being 2.1% higher y-o-y. Among tax revenues, revenue from corporate income tax posted the strongest growth in the first eight months, largely due to the effect of last year's low base as a consequence of the tax assessment. Growth in revenue from value added tax was also relatively high. On the expenditure side, all expenditure categories were up y-o-y, except expenditure on capital and capital transfers, payments into the EU budget and subsidies. Strong y-o-y growth was recorded particularly for expenditures on interest payments and transfers to individuals and households. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment The slow Q3 GDP growth in the euro area was already suggested by short-term indicators while confidence indicators indicate that growth will ease in the last quarter of the year. According to Eurostat, GDP rose by 0.2% in real terms in the euro area (seasonally adjusted), by the same percentage as in the preceding quarter, being up 1.4% y-o-y.The moderation of growth predicted by international institutions is already indicated by short-term indicators of economic activity for the last month of Q3. Specifically, industrial production in euro area manufacturing shrank by 2.6% in September (seasonally adjusted) and new orders dropped by as much as 6.4%, which are the largest monthly declines since the beginning of the crisis in late 2008. The slowdown of economic activity in the euro area in the last quarter of this year is also suggested by confidence indicators, which keep deteriorating, most of them hitting the lowest values in the last two years. In November, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated a decline in production volume in the euro area manufacturing sector for the third successive month. The value of the Ifo Business Climate Index for the euro area also dropped sharply. Figure 1: Economic growth and Ifo Business Climate in the euro area -Y-o-y GDP growth in EMU (left axis) -Ifo Business Climate Index for EMU (right axis) 120 100 J^ 40 20 aaaaaaaaa Source: Eurostat, Ifo. The tensions on European government bond markets continued to rise in November and interbank market conditions deteriorated further. In view of ongoing uncertainty regarding the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, with Italy also coming under market pressure in November, almost all euro area countries saw borrowing costs increase in November. The required yields of government bonds also rose in hitherto less exposed economies, in addition to Greece and Italy, where they spiked to record highs. The ECB otherwise purchased an additional EUR 30.6 bn in government bonds in November (a total of EUR 203.5 bn since the beginning of the implementation of the programme in May 2010). The situation on interbank markets is deteriorating as well, as indicated by a decline in different confidence indicators in this market segment over the last few weeks.1 As a consequence, European banks are increasingly relying on the ECB to secure liquidity. After the ECB took action at the beginning of November, interbank interest rates in the euro area declined. The ECB cut its main refinancing operations rate by 0.25 b.p. to 1.25% in early November, which translated into a reduction of interbank interest rates in the euro area. The three-month EURIBOR rate thus declined by 9 b.p. on average in November (to 1.49%), while the three-month US dollar and Swiss franc LIBOR rates rose by 7 b.p. (to 0.47%) and 1 b.p. (to 0.05%), respectively. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond 5 ^ 1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The euro lost value against the US dollar again in November. The euro depreciated by 1.1% in November (to USD 1.36 per euro) and was down 0.8% y-o-y. The euro also lost value against the British pound sterling (by 1.5%, to GBP 0.858 per euro), while it appreciated against the Swiss franc (by 0.1 p.p., to CHF 1.231 per euro) and remained unchanged against the Japanese yen (JPY 105.35 per euro). 1 At the beginning of December, the cost of the euro/dollar basis swap surged to the highest level since October 2008. The difference between the borrowing benchmark and overnight index swaps (Euribor/OIS spread) also increased significantly, indicating increased reluctance of banks to lend one another. 6 4 3 2 80 0 60 Box 1: Autumn forecasts of the EC and OECD The EC and OECD forecasts released in November project a substantial moderation of economic growth in the euro area in 2012. The international economic environment has deteriorated in recent months, mainly due to considerably lower confidence in euro area countries' ability to solve public finance problems. This was reflected in new tensions on financial markets and a consequent deterioration of consumer and business expectations, which started to affect the real economy. Both institutions expect stagnant economic activity in the next quarters, as well as a decline of GDP in certain countries. The EC and the OECD alike otherwise expect the recovery to start in the second half of 2012, but the forecasts for growth remain subject to significant downside risks. The revision of 2012 forecasts was expected, given that other international institutions have also been lowering their forecasts in recent months. In the period from August to November alone, the Consensus forecast for 2012 GDP growth in the euro area was reduced by more than 1 p.p. Both institutions cut their 2012 growth forecasts for the euro area for all components of demand and expect tight labour market conditions to continue. The EC predicts very moderate growth for most demand components in 2012, with general government expenditure on investment set to decline as a result of the necessary consolidation measures. Euro area exports will also see a moderation of growth, which is in line with lower forecasts for growth in global trade. Slower growth will also be reflected on the labour market, where the situation will remain tight, as the unemployment rate in the euro area is not expected to drop below 10% in the next two years, which will weigh on growth in private consumption. In view of the combined impact of subdued economic activity, lower expectations, deteriorated conditions of the financial sector and the state of public finances, both institutions deem restoring financial market stability essential for bringing negative movements to a halt. The euro area countries will see strong consolidation of public finances in the coming years. The excessive deficit procedure had already been launched against 23 EU Member States, which committed themselves to bringing public finance deficit below 3% of GDP not later than by the end of 2013. According to EC forecasts based on measures that have been adopted thus far, the public finance deficit in the euro area will total 3.4% of GDP in 2012 (EU, 3.9% of GDP), assuming the countries will implement the austerity measures consistently and take new steps if necessary. The EC estimates that the government gross debt in the euro area as a whole will climb to 90.9% of GDP by 2013 (EU, 84.9% of GDP), which is more than 20 p.p. higher than in 2008. The key downside risks to GDP growth in the next two years are linked to the spread of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the state of public finances in the US. The concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the euro area have intensified in recent months, despite the agreements at the highest political level. The credit ratings are deteriorating and the costs of new borrowing in the most exposed countries continue to increase. Insufficient action and a spillover of the sovereign debt crisis to the otherwise healthy economies therefore pose a severe risk. Furthermore, the severe fiscal consolidation measures that should be carried out by euro area countries in the next two years will also stifle economic growth in the euro area and decrease the countries' ability to take appropriate action in case of extraordinary events. The OECD cautions Figure 3: Revision of the Consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2012 -■-EMU -»-US 2 Figure 4: General government gross debt in EU countries 200 175 CL Q 150 -p !Z 125 JD (U TD 100 (D 75 E !Z > 50 O C 25 0 -25 ^ «2013/2008 «2008 ^ ..................... IJ--C^ CQ LL ; ^ 00 :J ucc -J Source: Consensus Forecasts. Source: EC Autumn Forecast (November 2011). 4 3 3 2 0 that a lack of a credible medium-term strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances in the US also represents a significant downside risk to further growth. Both institutions emphasise that the realisation of these risks could have severe consequences for global economic growth and do not rule out a prolonged recession in the euro area and the US. If this were the case, GDP in the euro area would shrink by around 2.0% in 2012 and 2013, according to the OECD. Table 1: Comparison of GDP forecasts by international institutions 2011 2012 IMF Apr 11 EC May 11 OECD May 11 CONS Aug 11 IMF Sep 11 EC Nov 11 CONS Nov 11 OECD Nov 11 IMF Apr 11 EC May 11 OECD May 11 CONS Aug 11 IMF Sep 11 EC Nov 11 CONS Nov 11 OECD Nov 11 EMU 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 EU 1.8 1.8 N/A 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 N/A 2.1 1.9 N/A 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.7 N/A DE 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.6 IT 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 AT 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 FR 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 UK 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.6 1.1 0.5 US 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.0 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April, September 2011), EC European Economic Forecast (May, November 2011), OECD Economic Outlook (May, November 2011), Consesus Forecasts (August, November 2011). Prices of non-energy commodities keep declining, while oil prices fluctuate and were up slightly in November. The average price of Brent crude oil rose by 1.1% to USD 110.75 a barrel (in EUR, by 3.0% to EUR 81.30 a barrel). Oil prices thus maintain their high levels, being around 30% higher y-o-y in both USD and EUR. Despite lower growth in global oil demand, international institutions expect no major oil price cuts. Having declined for several months in a row, prices of non-energy commodities continued to drop in November, according to preliminary data. The most recent IMF figures show that dollar prices of non-energy commodities fell by 7.4% in October and were 0.7% lower y-o-y, largely due to lower prices of industrial goods, especially metals. Economic developments in Slovenia Growth in merchandise trade continued to slow in the third quarter of this year. According to the seasonally adjusted data from national accounts, the real growth of merchandise exports slowed from 3.3% in Q2 to 1.6% in Q3. The nominal growth of exports in Q3 was, after increasing in July and August and declining in September, similar to that in Q2 (from 2.7% to 2.6%, seasonally adjusted), which was mainly attributable to price factors. Broken down by geographical area, the y-o-y nominal growth of exports to EU markets remained relatively high (12.1%), in contrast to that of exports to non-EU countries, which decelerated to 6.4%. The real growth of merchandise imports in the third quarter remained similar to that in the second (from 0.9% to 1.0%, seasonally adjusted), while the nominal growth slowed slightly (from 2.0% to 1.8%, seasonally adjusted). The latter also dropped y-o-y (from 11.8% to 9.6%). Due to their linkages to exports, in Q2 the highest y-o-y growth was again recorded by imports of intermediate products, according to our estimates. In Figure 5: Merchandise trade 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 cc u UJ 4,000 3,500 Merchandise exports Merchandise imports a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. addition to volume, they were significantly affected by higher energy and commodity prices, but the growth of these prices is slowing. In the first nine months of this year, merchandise exports increased 14.3% y-o-y in nominal terms while imports rose 13.8%. In the year as a whole, the growth of merchandise trade will thus be in line with our forecasts, despite the expected further slowdown in the last quarter of the year. In contrast to merchandise trade, trade in services is increasing at a slower pace this year. After a slight decline in Q2 (-0.4%, seasonally adjusted), exports of services remained unchanged in Q3. They were up 4.8% y-o-y, again mainly due to exports of travel. The y-o-y increase in services exports was also substantially influenced by Box2: Economic growth in the third quarter of 2011 Following a standstill in the first half of the year, Slovenia's GDP shrank by 0.2% in Q3 relative to Q2 (seasonally adjusted) and was 0.5% lower than in the same quarter last year. Economic activity in Slovenia has stagnated this year. According to the available data for 20 EU Member States, GDP fell in only three other EU countries besides Slovenia in Q3, while in the euro area as a whole, it rose by 0.2% relative to the previous quarter. Economic activity was still driven by exports, which were up 5.6% in Q3 y-o-y, but their growth is gradually easing. Import growth is also slowing (3.7%), so that net exports made a positive contribution to economic growth again in Q3 (1.3 p.p.). Domestic consumption was lower than in the same quarter last year for the second quarter running, mainly due to a further contraction in gross fixed capital formation, which was down 13.0% y-o-y. Household consumption has persisted around last year's level throughout 2011, according to our estimate mainly due to tightened labour market conditions, deteriorated consumer confidence and ongoing general uncertainty. Government consumption was also below the 2010 level in the last two quarters (in Q3, down 0.5% y-o-y). In the first three quarters of 2011, real GDP was up 0.8% relative to the same period last year, which is below the expectations in IMAD's Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends. Value added in Q3 was lower than in the same period last year (-0.8%). The steepest decline was still recorded in construction, but due to slower growth in foreign demand, value added also shrank y-o-y in manufacturing. The moderation of growth in foreign demand had the greatest impact on value-added growth in manufacturing, which was down 0.1% y-o-y due to its decline in Q3. The y-o-y drop remained largest in construction (-19.7%), albeit smaller than in previous quarters. Value-added growth was also down y-o-y in most market services, except real estate activities. The deterioration was most pronounced in predominantly knowledge-intensive services that are more closely related to the industrial sector and construction (information and communication and professional and technical activities). In public services, the y-o-y growth of value added dropped slightly, but remains around 2%. Figure 6: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners —•—Slovenia -Germany ---------France 103 ---Italy - Austria - Croatia Source: Eurostat. Figure 7: Expenditure structure of Slovenia's GDP growth Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Chang. in invent. and valuables Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services -GDP real growth (right axis) - 8 6 4 2 § -4 -8 -10 -12 c3 c5 a a Source: SORS. exports of maritime transport services. After dropping in Q2 (-1.1%), imports of services expanded in Q3 (1.6%, seasonally adjusted). They were up 2.8% y-o-y, mainly on the back of financial and communication services, but also due to a higher value of domestic households' holiday trips abroad, while the value of construction and assembly services and investment works performed in Slovenia by foreigners continued to decline. In the first nine months of 2011, exports of services were up 7.6% and imports 3.2% y-o-y in nominal terms. Production volume in manufacturing dropped in the third quarter of 2011, after growing over the past year and a half. Despite September's growth, due to a steep decline in July, production volume was down 2.4% in the third quarter in comparison with the second (seasonally adjusted). The decline was due to medium-low-technology industries,2 but also to high- and medium-high-technology industries, where production is stagnating this year, after it had recovered fastest in the preceding two years. Production 2 According to original data, the largest Q3 decline in production in this group was posted by the manufacture of metal products. Figure 8: Geographical structure of merchandise exports a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 9: Trade in services 1,300 Exports of services-Imports of services 1,200 ü 1,100 !; 1,000 900 V Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2010 IX 11/ VIII 11 IX 11/ IX 10 I-IX 11/ I-IX 10 Exports1 12.2 18.4 8.6 13.1 -goods 13.7 25.5 9.6 14.5 -services 6.6 -4.0 4.8 7.6 Imports1 14.3 13.8 8.1 12.7 -goods 16.1 19.3 9.2 14.3 -services 4.5 -12.4 1.7 3.2 Industrial production 6.2 1.62 2.43 4.33 -manufacturing 6.6 3.52 2.93 4.53 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.9 7.82 -17.03 -27.43 Real turnover in retail trade -0.2 -1.42 2.23 2.03 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 6.3 -0.62 4.83 5.23 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Figure 10: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity ^^m Manufact. total, y-o-y growth, data are working-day adj. (right axis) -Manufacturing total -----High-and medium-high-technology-intensive industries -Medium-low-technology-intensive industries Low-technology-intensive industries 115 ?§105 J^- 100 90 f.5 75 70 15 a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. volume in the least technology-intensive industries rose again in Q3, recording a similar lag behind the average 2008 level as production volume in medium-low-technology industries.3 Due to an unexpectedly strong decline in production, Q3 growth was also low y-o-y (0.7%, working-day adjusted). Therefore we estimate that in the year as a whole, growth will fall short of our expectations in the Autumn Forecast. 3 The strongest Q3 growth in this group was recorded by the leather industry. Slovenia's lag behind the average level of production activity in the EU-27, which remained at similar levels over the last two quarters, widened in Q3. A similar contraction of production volume was recorded only in Slovakia, which had until then witnessed a faster recovery than Slovenia despite a similar decline at the beginning of the crisis. Slovenia is ranked among EU members in which production has grown the least since most of the countries bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009. A faster recovery of production than in Slovenia was recorded in most of the new Member States and, with the exception of Italy, in Slovenia's major trading partners in the euro area. Figure 11: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU-27 120 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD^Note: data for Slovenia are seasonally adjusted by IMAD. The key reason for the halt in production at the beginning of the second half of this year is a decline in foreign demand coupled with a continuation of the bad situation on the domestic market. According to seasonally adjusted data, in addition to a further decline in turnover on the domestic market (-2.9%), the third quarter also saw a decline in turnover on the foreign market (-1.3%) (which otherwise makes up the bulk of turnover in the manufacturing sector) for the first time since the beginning of the recovery of production in Q2 2009. A further decline in demand is also suggested by data on business trends, which show that the share of enterprises faced with lower demand has been larger than the share of those with no demand problems since the middle of the year. In November, the number of the former exceeded the number of those that were not impeded by insufficient demand by a quarter. Enterprises are also increasingly pessimistic about the expected exports and total demand. Turnover on the domestic market is still below the 2008 average, while turnover on the foreign market has already exceeded the 2008 levels in certain industries. The latter include most high- and medium-high technology industries, which tend to be more export-oriented and have thus recovered fastest due to growth in foreign demand,4 as well as some least technology-intensive industries that are less dependent on economic trends.5 Turnover on the foreign market of medium-low-technology industries, most of which are primarily oriented to the foreign market, otherwise falls short of the 2008 average, albeit less notably than turnover on the domestic market.6 The gap between the level of turnover 4 The manufacture of electrical and ICT equipment and the manufacture of motor vehicles. 5 The food and paper processing industries. 6 With the exception of the manufacture of non-metal mineral products that generates the bulk of its turnover on the domestic market. This industry's turnover lags significantly behind the average 2008 levels, particularly due to modest domestic construction activity. on the domestic and foreign markets and pre-crisis levels is widest in the least technology-intensive textile and furniture industries. It is also mainly because of these industries that production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia lags farther behind the pre-crisis levels than in the EU-27.7 Figure 12: Turnover from sales on the domestic and foreign market Total Domestic market Non-domestic market 1^85 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity picked up in September, yet insufficiently to see a strengthening in comparison with the previous quarter. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place increased by 7.8% in September, while dropping by 2.5% relative to the previous quarter. In Q3, the value of works strengthened in residential construction,8 but remained low, while it declined in the other two construction segments. Compared with the situation before the acceleration of construction activity at the end of 2006, activity is lowest in non-residential construction, followed by residential construction, while civil-engineering activity lags the least in relative terms. Data on issued building permits and new contracts show that residential construction activity will remain low, while non-residential construction is expected to fare slightly better. In the third quarter of this year, building permits were issued for the construction of 806 flats, which is 25.1% less than in the same quarter last year and the lowest figure since data have been available.9 Having declined substantially at the beginning of the crisis, the 7 The significance of the most labour-intensive industries, the textile and furniture industries (and other miscellaneous manufacturing industries) diminished during the crisis (see also IMAD Working Paper Nos. 5/2011 and 5/2010). As a result of a declining share in generated value added and employment, they have less and less influence on the movement of manufacturing activities. 8 The data on the value of residential construction put in place do not include small enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, according to our estimates. 9 Since 1999. 90 80 75 Figure 13: Value of construction put in place -Constructiontotal -----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings ---------Civil- engineering works 100 90 80 70 ■Ö 60 50 (S 40 30 20 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 14: Floor area planned 3,500 3,000 2,500 ' 2,000 1,500 o SE 1,000 500 I Residential buildings I Other non-residential buildings I Industrial buildings and warehouses a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. total floor area of non-residential buildings planned by issued building permits has hovered around that level since. The total floor area planned for industrial buildings has otherwise increased in recent months, but the total floor area planned for hotels, wholesale and retail and garage buildings has declined. Amid September's decline in all three trade sectors, in the third quarter turnover increased in retail and wholesale trade, while it dropped in the sale of motor vehicles. Growth in real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, which had started before the summer of 2009 and had also been relatively high in 2010, came to a halt this year (seasonally adjusted). Following the stagnation in the second quarter, turnover dropped in the third quarter as Box 3: Real estate market in Q3 2011 In Q3, the number of transactions in flats declined for the third quarter in a row. According to SMARS data, the number of reported market transactions in secondhand flats was more than 18% lower than in the preceding quarter. SMARS otherwise notes that this figure is provisional, as data become available with a delay. The figures for Q2 thus had to be subsequently revised upward by nearly 25%. Despite the provisional nature of the currently available data, it is safe to assume that the number of transactions in second-hand flats continues to decline steadily, which is also corroborated by a y-o-y comparison, according to which the number of transactions has been lower than in the same period in 2010 for as long as a year. The decline in the number of transactions in new flats in the third quarter was even larger (-33.1%, -44.8% y-o-y). Prices of second-hand flats dropped just slightly in Q3, while prices of new flats recorded a much larger decline. According to SORS and SMARS data, prices of secondhand flats fell only slightly in Q3 and lagged around 5% behind their average level in 2008. The prices of secondhand flats thus declined significantly less relative to the 2008 average than the number of transactions. Prices of new flats fell by 5.2% relative to Q2, according to SORS, which is the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009. In comparison with 2008, they are more than 10% lower. The prices and the number of transactions in new flats thus declined much more relative to 2008 than those in second-hand flats. Figure 15: Real estate market in Q3 2011 -PrIces-SORS, second-hand dwellings ---------Prices-SORS, new dwellings -PrIces-SMARS ----Registered transactlons-SMARS ----Transactions-SORS, new dwellings a a a a a Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD. a whole, due to September's decline. Its gap to the 2008 average was, despite the widening in September, still the narrowest among all three trade sectors. Amid a lower 0 number of cars sold,10 turnover was nevertheless up by almost a twentieth11 in real terms in Q3 relative to the same period of 2010. Real turnover in retail trade rose in Q3 after the Q2 decline and lags nearly a tenth behind its level in 2008. In recent months, the dynamics of this sector's turnover have mainly reflected the movement of the sale of automotive fuels, which continues to grow. According to our estimate, the latter is a result of increased turnover in transport, and probably also lower prices of certain automotive fuels in comparison with those in the neighbouring countries. On the other hand, turnover in the sale of food and in the sale non-food products, which had maintained roughly the same level since the end of 2009, dropped again in the third quarter. These two sectors also saw turnover drop relative to the third quarter of last year. Turnover in the sale of furniture, household equipment and construction materials dropped most notably, which had to do with a further decline in construction activity and reduced purchases of durable goods. Turnover in this trade sector has already been shrinking since the latter half of 2008 and lags by a third behind what it was in 2008. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade was up in Q3 despite September's decline, but remained at the same level as at the beginning of the year due to the fluctuations in the first half of the year. It is thus still roughly 16% short of the 2008 level, most notably of the three main trade sectors. After it increased steeply in Q1, nominal turnover in market services (excluding distributive trade)12 recorded more moderate growth in the next two quarters and thus still lagged behind the 2008 level by 1.3% in Q3. Over the last two years, the largest contribution to turnover growth in market services came from transportation and storage, where nominal turnover continued to grow in Q3. This is thus the only of the five main market service activities that has significantly exceeded the 2008 average, by nearly a tenth. Within transportation and storage activities, turnover in land transport retained its moderate growth in Q3, after the substantial acceleration at the beginning of the year, while turnover in warehousing and support activities for transportation increased more notably, after stagnating for nearly a year. In Q3, nominal turnover in accommodation and food service activities continued to grow at a moderate pace and thus reached the 2008 average. We estimate that the main contribution to turnover growth in the last year comes from foreign tourists, as the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists increased by a tenth in this period, while the number of domestic tourists' overnight stays remained Figure 16: Turnover in trade sectors 10 In Q3 2011, the total number of new passenger car registrations was 5.1% lower y-o-y (registrations by natural persons were down 16.8%, while registrations by legal persons were up 2.9% compared with the same period a year before). The sale of small and medium-sized cars dropped, in particular, according to data from the Motor Vehicles Section at the Chamber of Commerce. 11 The higher real growth rates in this sector were also a result of lower prices of cars. According to the consumer price statistics, in Q3, the prices of new passenger cars were 1.2% and the prices of used cars 8.2% lower than in the same period last year. 12 Activities from H to N subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. - Retail trade, real ■ Automotive fuel, real ■ Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale, nominal 85 85 ;= cS cS cS cS Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. at the same level as a year earlier. The performance of predominantly knowledge-intensive services (information and communication and professional and technical services) deteriorated in Q3, most likely already as a result of the deteriorating situation in the industrial sector, combined with the ongoing impact of the crisis in construction and subdued private consumption. Nominal turnover in telecommunication activities thus shrank substantially in Q3. Nominal turnover in computer programming, where the otherwise weak growth came to a halt, also dropped slightly. Turnover in legal and accounting and management consultancy activities13 stopped increasing in Q3, but its level was still above the 2008 average. Turnover in architectural and engineering Figure 17: Nominal turnover in market services (without distributive trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Accomodation and food service activities (I), -----Information and communication (J) Professional, scient. and technical activ. (M) 105 100 H 95 J« 85 S 80 75 a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 13 A united activity according to SCA 2008 (69+70.2). 95 80 75 70 activities dropped further, which is mainly related to the crisis in construction. The movement of the sentiment indicator in recent months suggests a future moderation of economic activity. Similar movements are also indicated by confidence indicators in the EU as a whole. In November, the seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator remained at the same level as in October and was still lower than in the same month of 2010. Manufacturing confidence has already been declining since May. Despite a slight increase in November, the majority of managers still evaluate their business situation as bad. The confidence indicator in retail trade, which is fluctuating strongly this year, has remained relatively high in the last three months. In other services, confidence declined again and the indicator value turned negative for the first time since February. The confidence indicator in construction, which suggested a slight increase in confidence last year, is stagnating this year and remains the lowest among all activities. The consumer confidence indicator is also extremely low, persisting at the same level since October 2009. Figure 18: Business trends 40 30 20 "D (U 1 n 10 H 0 Figure 19: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements -Employed according to the statistical register(left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) Source: SORS. Labour market The labour market situation deteriorated in the third quarter. The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons according to the statistical register14 declined by 0.4% relative to the previous quarter, while the number of registered unemployed persons increased by 0.5%. The seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate was hence up slightly in Q3 (11.8%) relative to Q2 (by 0.1 p.p.). The number of employed persons according to the statistical register remained 2.1% lower y-o-y, while registered unemployment and the unemployment rate remained higher (8.9% and 1 p.p., respectively). Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD Formal employment, which has been dropping ever since the second quarter of 2009, continued to drop y-o-y in the third quarter of this year. In the third quarter, formal employment declined y-o-y in most activities (original data). The decline was most pronounced in construction, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. Relative to the same period last year, formal employment was up particularly in agriculture, education, health and social work, and professional, scientific and technical activities. Figure 20: Movement in the number of employed persons by activity Q3 2010 104 2010 BQI 2011 «02 2011 HQS 2011 4 C ^ 2 0 o iš -2 £ Ü -4 (V -6 II -8 C (Z ■15 -10 -12 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 14 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 6 Table 3: Persons in employment by activity Number in '000 Change in umber 2010 IX 10 VIII 11 IX 11 10/09 IX 11/ VIII 11 IX 11/ IX 10 I-IX 11/ I-IX 10 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 33.4 34.0 38.8 38.8 -4,437 -92 4,779 5,483 B Mining and quarrying 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 -308 -20 -117 -110 C Manufacturing 188.6 188.1 184.0 185.2 -11,253 1,176 -2,920 -4,757 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 54 17 -56 -115 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 138 31 365 182 F Construction 78.5 78.2 68.4 67.0 -8,231 -1,376 -11,199 -10,748 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 111.8 111.3 109.5 109.4 -2,842 -191 -1,926 -2,413 H Transportation and storage 47.9 47.8 46.6 47.9 -1,874 1,223 100 -981 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.2 33.1 32.5 32.5 -806 -13 -632 -921 J Information and communication 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 59 -79 -58 157 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.0 -208 -516 -428 4 L Real estate activities 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.0 -34 -18 -313 -199 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 46.8 47.4 47.9 48.0 2,037 84 536 1,295 N Administrative and support service activities 26.4 26.7 26.3 26.4 840 185 -298 50 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 52.0 52.1 51.5 51.2 502 -236 -851 -695 P Education 63.5 64.1 63.7 64.9 1,833 1,159 808 1,227 Q Human health and social work activities 53.2 53.4 54.4 54.5 1,080 99 1,055 849 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.9 125 -1 -354 -345 S Other service activities 13.5 13.5 13.3 13.3 185 16 -215 -196 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Box4: Labour Force Survey - the third quarter of 2011 According to the Labour Force Survey, employment continued to drop in the third quarter, according to seasonally adjusted data, while the survey unemployment rate was up. The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons according to the Survey dropped 0.7% and remained lower than in the same period of last year (-2.4%). Original data indicate that the number of employed persons according to the survey rose at the quarterly level, while the number of employed persons according to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE) declined, which suggests an increase in informal work in the third quarter.1 Relative to the second quarter, unemployment according to the Labour Force Survey increased by 2,000 persons (1.5%, seasonally adjusted) in the third (81,000) and remained higher than in the same period last year (11.0%). The seasonally adjusted survey unemployment rate (8.2%) was up 0.2 p.p. from the previous quarter and remained higher y-o-y (0.9 p.p.)._ 1 In addition to employed and self-employed persons, the number of employed persons according to the Labour Force Survey also includes informal employment such as occasional work, work by unpaid family workers and similar, but it does not include temporarily employed foreigners. The modest increase in the number of registered unemployed persons seen in previous months came to a halt in October, according to seasonally adjusted data Figure 21: Inflows to and outflows from the unemployment register - October 2008-2011 «»Other ^»Neglect of duties ^■Transition into inactivity Found work Inflow from other registers Lost work 1 First-time job seekers —♦— Registered persons, total — Deleted from the register, total 20 cy £ Ji £ SD 5 D O T3 -10 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. (110.905persons). Original data show that unemployment otherwise increased in October due to a seasonal inflow of first-time job seekers,15 while seasonally adjusted data show a different picture, as this inflow was much smaller than in the same period in previous years.16 Within 15 For more on the labour market situation of youth see Selected Topics, p. 29. " According to our estimate, the lower inflow of first-time job seekers relative to previous years could be a consequence of a decline in student population, students studying longer because of the economic crisis and increased postgraduate enrolment. 15 10 0 -5 Table 4: Labour market indicators in % 2010 IX 11/ VIII 11 IX 11/ IX 10 I-IX 11/ I-IX 10 Labour force -1.0 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 Persons in formal employment -2.7 0.2 -1.4 -0.7 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.6 0.2 -2.4 -1.3 Registered unemployed 16.4 0.0 9.3 -0.8 Average nominal gross wage 3.9 -1.1 1.4 2.3 - private sector 5.1 -1.6 2.0 3.0 - public sector -0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 2010 IX 10 VIII 11 IX 11 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 10.8 10.9 11.8 11.9 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,494.88 1,485.58 1,524.15 1,506.87 Private sector (in EUR) 1,414.65 1,402.98 1,454.25 1,431.01 Public sector (in EUR) 1,750.61 1,746.87 1,741.32 1,740.69 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Opomba: 1The division into the private and public sectors is (for easier and consistent comparison of wage and productivity growth) adjusted to SORS' division of activities in the quarterly release of GDP. The public sector comprises activities O-Q and the private sector all other activities (A-N, R-S). The growth rates of the average gross wage per employee for 2009 and 2010 are therefore also slightly changed, ^seasonally adjusted data. seasonal inflows into unemployment (11,815 persons), the number of first-time job-seekers who finished school (4,369 persons, 1,974 fewer than last year) increased most notably in October relative to the previous month. The outflows from unemployment (7,959 persons) declined relative to the previous month, particularly the number of persons who landed work. Similar to September, October recorded a significant inflow of persons who registered as unemployed after a pause due to the expiration of contracts for formal education programmes under the active employment policy. On the other hand, because of depletion of funds for active employment policy programmes, there was a seasonally low outflow of unemployed persons in formal education and, consequently, a decline in transitions into inactivity, unlike in previous years, when this outflow was very high at the beginning of the school year in September and October. The gross wage per employee stagnated in both sectors in September, seasonally adjusted. It is otherwise growing slightly in the private sector this year, while being stagnant in the public sector due to austerity measures. As expected, following the August increase, the average gross wage declined in September, according to original data, despite the same number of working days (1.1% in nominal terms). It dropped in almost all activities, most notably in the industrial part of the private sector (-2.9%), where it was up 4.8% in August, largely due to extraordinary payments in the pharmaceutical industry. In the public sector, wages continued to stagnate. Among public sector activities, the average gross wage increased in education, for seasonal reasons, while it dropped in the other two categories of activities. This year's modest y-o-y growth in the average gross wage (2.3%) thus still arises from wage Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2010 IX 2011 2010/ 2009 IX 11/ VIII 11 IX 11/ IX 10 I-IX 11/ I-IX 10 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,267.00 1,293.83 5.8 -2.1 1.1 4.1 B Mining and quarrying 1,904.97 1,962.47 4.0 2.6 6.6 3.2 C Manufacturing 1,311.57 1,342.57 9.0 -3.0 3.4 4.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,095.67 2,032.35 3.7 -4.3 2.2 3.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,444.70 1,416.41 2.2 -1.8 1.1 0.8 F Constrution 1,211.63 1,236.13 4.4 0.0 0.8 2.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,325.08 1,344.85 3.7 -0.4 1.7 2.7 H Transportation and storage 1,421.14 1,445.80 2.0 -0.4 -1.5 3.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,074.27 1,084.41 4.0 -2.6 1.6 3.0 J Information and communication 2,092.15 2,114.24 2.6 0.4 3.1 1.3 K Financial and insurance activities 2,144.81 2,073.32 1.0 -1.9 0.9 1.8 L Real estate activities 1,477.74 1,482.75 3.0 -0.8 3.4 3.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,765.21 1,718.24 1.6 -3.1 -0.9 0.0 N Administrative and support service activities 952.15 993.89 4.1 0.4 5.2 3.8 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,778.20 1,781.22 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 P Education 1,730.26 1,734.80 0.6 1.7 0.1 0.1 Q Human health and social work activities 1,746.86 1,706.07 -0.3 -1.6 -0.5 -0.7 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,731.32 1,699.68 0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 S Other service activities 1,397.40 1,394.39 4.2 -1.6 1.1 1.5 Figure 22: Average gross wage per employee 10 .EE 8 Figure 23: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Private sector (activities A-N; R-S), Public sector (activities O-Q). growth in the private sector (3.0%), which has otherwise been slowing since the second quarter of last year.17 In the public sector, the average gross wage has been left unchanged for nearly three years. Prices Consumer prices increased 0.3% in November, being up 2.6% in the first eleven months of this year and 2.7% y-o-y. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, prices in the euro area were up 2.8% y-o-y in November. Y-o-y inflation increased again in October, to 2.7%, which is 0.6 p.p. more than in September. The increase was largely due to the movements of clothing and footwear prices, which recorded much higher seasonal growth than in the same period in previous years. The higher seasonal price rises are to a certain extent also due to methodological changes in collecting prices of seasonal goods and services.18 On account of the movements in the last two months, this year's inflation will be higher than expected when we prepared the autumn forecast. In October, domestic inflation reached the level of inflation in the euro area. In 2011, the y-o-y inflation in Slovenia and that in the euro area have been affected by the same key factors, such as weak economic activity and higher food and energy prices, but since February 2011 Slovenia's y-o-y inflation has been lower due to the impact of specific domestic factors (a net decline in excise duties on liquid fuels and the impact of the subsidy introduced last year). In October, Slovenia's y-o-y inflation measured -HICP -Slovenia HICP core inflation -Slovenia -HICP -Euro area HICP core inflation -Euro area f- 8B 8B Source: Eurostat. by the HICP (2.9%) fell just 0.1% short of that in the euro area (3.0%). The y-o-y growth of producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market dropped somewhat in October. It totalled 3.1%, 0.4 p.p. less than in September, and is expected to slow further in the coming months due to the absence of current price pressures. Price growth is otherwise still mainly due to the movement of prices in the manufacture of food products and metals and metal products. Figure 24: Industrial producer prices - PPI (domestic market) .........Mfr. of furniture, and other manufacturing -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. ----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products .........Mfr. of chemicals and chemical prod., and basic pharm. products 16 12 0 >- -4 -12 -16 17 As a result of the waning effects of last year's increase in the minimum wage and structural changes in employment (due to increased firing of low-wage employees), and due to a sluggish recovery of the economy. 18 The difference between the expected and actual price movements in clothing and footwear is in part also attributable to methodological changes in collecting prices of seasonal goods and services effective since January this year. According to Eurostat's estimates, the y-o-y inflation rate in Slovenia in October was 0.3 p.p. higher than it would have been under the previous methodology. 14 12 6 5 4 6 3 4 2 0 Table 6: Breakdown of the HICP into subgroups - for the first ten months of 2011 Slovenia Evro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 2.5 100.0 2.5 2.4 100.0 2.4 Goods 3.1 65.9 2.0 3.0 58.6 1.8 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 5.5 15.3 0.8 3.6 11.9 0.4 Non-processed food 3.3 7.3 0.2 0.6 7.4 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods 0.7 29.0 0.2 1.5 28.9 0.4 Durables -0.2 10.3 0.0 0.3 9.5 0.0 Non-durables 0.4 8.7 0.0 1.2 8.3 0.1 Semi-durables 3.9 10.0 0.4 3.8 11.2 0.4 Energy 6.2 14.3 0.9 8.9 10.4 0.9 Electricity for households 2.2 2.6 0.1 7.3 2.5 0.2 Natural gas 11.3 1.0 0.1 9.2 1.7 0.2 Liquid fuels for heating 18.8 1.6 0.3 15.0 0.9 0.1 Solid fuels -1.1 1.0 0.0 2.5 0.1 0.0 District heating 8.7 0.8 0.1 8.7 0.5 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 4.7 7.2 0.3 8.3 4.7 0.4 Services 1.0 34.1 0.3 1.3 41.4 0.5 Services - dwellings 0.3 2.9 0.0 1.6 10.1 0.2 Services - transport 2.2 5.3 0.1 2.5 6.5 0.2 Services - communications -2.3 3.7 -0.1 -1.7 3.2 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 1.7 13.7 0.2 1.0 14.7 0.1 Services - other services 1.1 8.5 0.1 1.9 7.0 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.7 78.4 1.3 1.6 82.3 1.3 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification The price competitiveness of the economy continued to deteriorate at the monthly level in October, but in the first ten months as a whole, Slovenia was still in a small group of euro area countries in which price competitiveness improved. Reflecting the appreciation of the exchange rate of the Figure 25: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries deflated by the HICP 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 euro19 and growth in relative prices, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP rose somewhat in October (0.3%) for the third successive month. Due to a decline in relative prices, it was lower than in December and October last year (0.2% and 0.9%, respectively). Slovenia was in a small group of euro area countries that gained in price competitiveness of the economy in the first ten months of the year, in spite of the relatively less favourable monthly movements since August. Namely, over the last three months, the monthly growth of Slovenia's relative consumer prices20 was among the highest in the euro area. The nominal effective exchange rate of the euro strengthened as well, while in most other euro area countries it dropped. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments has been roughly balanced since the beginning of the economic crisis. In the third quarter of this year, it recorded a slight deficit of EUR 9.9 m (EUR 84.3 m in the same period last year). Net exports were up again y-o-y, while the deficit in the balance of factor incomes declined. The surplus in current EE BE LU SK PT AT ES GR CY MT FI IT NL DE F^S^ IE Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 19 Particularly against the CHF, HUF and CZK. 20 In eight euro area countries relative prices dropped between August and October. -1.0 -1.5 transfers narrowed somewhat. In the first nine months of the year, the balance of current transactions recorded a surplus of EUR 13.0 m (a deficit of EUR 206.6 m in the same period last year). In Q3, the surplus in trade in goods and services remained wider y-o-y. The y-o-y decline in the merchandise trade deficit, which was at EUR 206.8 m in Q3, was attributable to volume factors, as exports grew faster than imports in Figure 26: Breakdown of y-o-y changes in the nominal balance of merchandise trade Terms of trade Volume effect Other -Change in nominal balance 800 a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Balance of payments real terms. The terms of trade deteriorated further, but the gap between import and export prices narrowed, which was mainly due to slower y-o-y growth in import prices (4.5%), as export prices recorded only slightly lower y-o-y growth than in Q2 (3.6%). The y-o-y increase in the surplus of the services balance (EUR 383.2 m in Q3) was mainly due to a surplus in trade in travel services. A wider surplus was also recorded for all transport services, with the exception of rail transport. On the other hand, the deficit in the group of other services was up y-o-y, again mainly due to higher imports of financial services.21 The deficit in factor incomes was slightly smaller y-o-y due to higher inflows of the compensation of residents working abroad, while interest payments to the rest of the world continued to increase. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes amounted to EUR 190.3 m and was down EUR 12.2 m y-o-y. Due to tighter financial conditions on international financial markets, Slovenia paid more interest to the rest of the world than it received. Net interest payments by the private sector (commercial banks and other sectors) were up as well. Net income from equity capital within direct investment shrank, as the net outflow of dividends and distributed profits declined y-o-y in the third quarter of the year. Net income on portfolio investment was up y-o-y again. The surplus in the balance of current transfers narrowed slightly y-o-y. Slovenia's net budgetary position towards the EU budget was again up relative to the same period of last year, but the deficit in current transfers in the private sector was even higher y-o-y (other transfers and insurance). I-IX 11, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - IX 10 Current account 20,893.0 20,880.0 13.0 -206.6 - Trade balance (FOB) 15,505.8 16,276.4 -770.5 -697.1 - Services 3,720.8 2,542.6 1,178.2 993.0 - Income 669.6 1,147.3 -477.7 -412.1 Current transfers 996.7 913.8 83.0 -90.3 Capital and financial account 2,986.6 -3,262.1 -275.5 424.6 - Capital account 142.2 -162.9 -20.7 64.4 - Capital transfers 140.1 -157.3 -17.3 66.5 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 2.1 -5.5 -3.4 -2.1 - Financial account 2,844.4 -3,099.2 -254.8 360.2 - Direct investment 454.0 93.3 547.4 -1.4 - Portfolio investment 2,208.8 -351.4 1,857.4 1,559.4 - Financial derivates 18.0 -124.6 -106.6 -101.4 - Other investment 110.4 -2,716.6 -2,606.2 -1,125.7 - Assets 0.0 -2,152.6 -2,152.6 179.1 - Liabilities 110.4 -564.0 -453.6 -1,304.8 - Reserve assets 53.2 0.0 53.2 29.5 Net errors and omissions 262.6 0.0 262.6 -218.1 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. 1 Commissions and costs of bank and monetary intermediation, commissions for other financial intermediation services. Figure 27: Net interest payments by sector ^HB^ General government Private sector -Total 50 a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. External financial transactions^2 recorded a net outflow again in Q3 this year, in the amount of EUR 99.0 m (a net inflow of EUR 155.6 m in the same period last year). The net capital outflows of the BS and the government sector exceeded the net capital inflow of the private sector. Portfolio investment again recorded a net outflow in Q3 this year, in the amount of EUR 419.4 m (EUR 54.1 m in the same period last year). The BS increased its financial assets by investing in bonds and notes, while the government sector repaid some of its external debt. Direct investment posted a net inflow in the amount of EUR 221.1 m (EUR 56.6 m in the same period of last year). Equity capital flows, marked by a high level of mutual crediting between domestic and foreign investors, were weak. Net claims of Figure 28: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow domestic investors on their subsidiary enterprises abroad declined, while those of Slovenian subsidiaries on foreign investors increased. After net outflows in the previous three quarters, other investment recorded a net capital inflow of EUR 111.7 m in the third quarter (EUR 167.5 m in the same period last year). The BS borrowed again short-term from the Eurosystem to provide liquidity for domestic commercial banks. Financial markets Following the net repayment of loans raised in domestic banks in Q3, the net flow of loans to non-banking sectors was positive in October. The net flows were otherwise fairly modest, at EUR 38.9 m, but nevertheless the second highest this year (EUR 45.4 m in January). Loans were net repaid only by NFIs, while other groups recorded what was otherwise modest growth. In the first ten months of the year, the volume of domestic non-banking sector loans with domestic banks contracted by EUR 226.2 m, while in the same period of 2010 the net flows amounted to EUR 1.1 bn. We estimate that banks continued to make net repayments of foreign loans and deposits in October. Household deposits shrank, while government deposits picked up somewhat again. In the euro area, non-banking sectors made net repayments of loans, the highest this year. Figure 29: Net flows of domestic banks' loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households Enterprises&NFI ^■Government -Total Sou^jrce: BS; calculatioi^i by IMAD. 22 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. 5Ž Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. After two months of decline, the volume of household loans increased in October, but its growth was fairly modest. The net borrowing in the form of euro loans was somewhat lower than in the previous two months. The volume of foreign currency loans also declined significantly, which we estimate is to a great extent a result of a smaller decline in the value of the Swiss franc. The net flows amounted to EUR 13.0 m; households took out particularly housing Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 10 31. X 11 31.X11/ 30. IX 11 31.X11/ 31. XII 10 31.X11/ 31. X 10 Loans total 33,519.35 33,293.15 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 Enterprises and NFI 23,039.29 22,667.14 0.1 -1.6 -2.7 Government 1,197.94 1,145.24 0.3 -4.4 4.3 Households 9,282.12 9,480.77 0.1 2.1 3.6 Consumer credits 2,833.17 2,747.38 -0.5 -3.0 -3.9 Lending for house purchase 4,837.08 5,153.21 0.4 6.5 10.8 Other lending 1,611.87 1,580.18 0.2 -2.0 -3.8 Bank deposits total 14,839.57 15,041.90 -0.3 1.4 2.7 Overnight deposits 6,200.38 6,362.50 -0.8 2.6 4.8 Short-term deposits 4,473.15 4,166.00 -0.1 -6.9 -8.3 Long-term deposits 4,156.68 4,506.05 0.2 8.4 12.1 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.35 7.35 1.9 -21.4 -30.5 Mutual funds 2,048.36 1,874.13 5.3 -8.5 -5.1 Government bank deposits total 2,678.50 3,107.60 1.1 16.0 14.2 Overnight deposits 64.40 81.28 5.6 26.2 722.9 Short-term deposits 555.35 1,039.35 2.0 87.2 55.5 Long-term deposits 2,055.29 1,983.62 0.3 -3.5 -2.8 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.46 3.35 59.5 -3.1 -3.7 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. loans, which otherwise fell behind this year's average, while they continued to net repay consumer loans. In the first ten months, household net borrowing amounted to EUR 198.6 m, which is just slightly more than a quarter of what had been recorded in the same period last year. After enterprises and NFIs had net repaid loans in domestic banks ever since May, these recorded net inflows again in October. The net inflows, totalling EUR 22.7 m, were due to the net borrowing of enterprises, which Figure 30: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps in interest rates Loans (left axis) -Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 200 350 i i 1 250 50 cc F2 0 200 a -100 50 mainly took out other loans for business purposes. NFIs net repaid their loans in October, in the amount of EUR 16.0 m. In the first ten months of the year, corporate and NFI net repayments of loans to domestic banks climbed to a high EUR 372.1 m, while the same period last year recorded net inflows in the amount of EUR 130.6 m. In September, enterprises and NFIs net borrowed EUR 4.4 m abroad, again as a result of short-term net borrowing. On the other hand, they net repaid long-term loans for the second time in succession, this time in the amount of EUR 5.9 m. In the first nine months of the year, enterprises and NFIs thus net borrowed EUR 256.2 m abroad, in contrast to the same period last year when they net repaid foreign loans in the amount of EUR 199.5 m. In light of the credit crunch at home, enterprises and NFIs nevertheless net repaid EUR 138.7 m in domestic and foreign bank loans combined, compared with EUR 28.5 m in the same period last year. The lending activity in the euro area eased significantly in October. Non-banking sectors recorded EUR 29.5 bn in net repayments of loans, as a result of net repayments of household loans in the total amount of EUR 41.6 bn. The bulk came from net repayments of housing loans to domestic banks in the Netherlands and Ireland. Corporate and NFI borrowing also eased relative to the previous months, but net flows continued to be relatively high (EUR 12.5 bn). The net borrowing of enterprises and NFIs in the euro area thus amounted to EUR 168.8 bn in the first ten months of the year (EUR 4.5 bn in the same period of last year). The total net flows of non-banking sector loans totalled EUR 150.5 bn in the first ten months, 100 0 less than half of the level recorded in the same period last year, which is a result of lower household net borrowing and the net repayments of government loans. Figure 31: Net flows of non-banking sector loans in the euro area ^■Households Enterprises&NFI ^■Government -Total 180 150 120 90 c 60 (D 30 cc 3 0 -30 -60 -90 "7.........r- -120 Source: ECB; ca lculations by I MAD. In September, Slovenian banks recorded net repayments of foreign deposits, while they increased the volume of foreign loans. The net repayments of deposits totalled EUR 91.0 m. The total net flows of loans amounted to just over EUR 30 m, with long-term loans accounting for the largest share. In the first three quarters of the year, net repayments of foreign deposits and loans totalled EUR 1.1 bn, nearly one third more than in the same period last year. Within that, banks net repaid EUR 757.2 m in loans (EUR 384.3 m in the same period of last year). Figure 32: Net bank borrowing abroad 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 cc =3 -200 m -400 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 Source: BS. ...i... Deposits Short-term ' Long-term -Total The deterioration of the quality of banks assets and the creation of provisions continue. At the end of September, the share of non-performing claims reached 5.3% of all bank claims, which is the highest level in 15 years. In recent months, the share of C-rated claims has no longer been growing and remains just below 5%. However, this does not yet indicate an easing in terms of the quality of banks' claims. We estimate that stagnation is largely due to increased inflows of claims among non-performing claims (D- and E-rated claims), while the inflows among C-rated claims remain high. The rapid deterioration in the quality of banks' assets is also reflected in the intensive creation of additional reservations and provisions (EUR 96.7 m in October), which exceeded EUR 700 m in the first ten months, being thus almost 40% higher than in the same period of last year. Figure 33: Net flow of impairments and provisions and the share of non-performing claims in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) --Share of C-rated claims (right axis)_^ 5 5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.5 ^^ 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Household deposits continued to see a net outflow in October, while government deposits strengthened somewhat again. Household deposits recorded net outflows in the amount of close to EUR 50 m, which were almost entirely due to overnight deposits. The net inflows of long-term deposits slowed significantly in October. In the last three months alone, household deposits in banks thus shrank by more than EUR 100 m. Household deposits in domestic banks increased only slightly more than EUR 200 m in the first ten months, which is nearly 40% less than in the same period last year. Government deposits recorded net inflows of EUR 32.6 m in October. Short-term deposits increased by slightly more than EUR 20 m. All other deposits recorded modest growth as well. In the first ten months of the year, the net inflows of government deposits to Slovenian banks amounted to nearly EUR 430 m, in contrast to net outflows of over EUR 800 m in the comparable period last year. Figure 34: Net inflows of household and government deposits in banks I Households ■ Government deposits -Total 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 "I 0 Ču -250 -500 -750 -1,000 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance According to the consolidated balance23 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 9.7 bn and general government expenditure EUR 10.9 bn in the first eight months of this year. Revenue was up 5.3% y-o-y (last year, -0.4%), expenditure 2.1% (last year, 2.6%). The consolidated balance recorded a deficit of EUR 1,234 m in the first eight months, which is less than last year (EUR 1,476 m). Among tax revenues, revenue from corporate income tax posted the strongest growth (82.6%) in the first eight months, largely due to last year's low-base effect as a consequence of the tax assessment. Growth in revenue from value added tax was also relatively high (5.2%), as last year's base declined as a result of shorter deadlines for VAT refunds. Revenues from wage-related taxes were very modest, as social security contributions increased just over one percent (1.3%) and personal income tax even less than one percent (0.9%). Non-tax revenues realised in the first eight months of the year were lower than in the same period last year (-6.7%). Looking at the economic structure of general government expenditure, all expenditure categories increased y-o-y in Figure 35: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 1,400 f^ 1,300 o E -1= o 1,200 1,100 1,000 io io io Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2010 2011 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VIII 11 EUR m I-VIII 11/ I-VIII 10 Revenue - total 14,789.5 41.8 2.7 9,745.0 5.3 - Tax revenues 12,848.3 36.3 -0.8 8,695.4 4.7 - Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 7.0 -11.2 1,790.2 14.0 - Social security contributions 5,234.5 14.8 1.4 3,485.3 1.3 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,780.6 13.5 2.6 3,200.2 3.9 - Receipts from the EU budget 724.6 2.0 21.5 476.4 45.9 Expenditure - total 16,675.9 47.1 1.9 10,979.0 2.3 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,914.9 11.1 0.1 2,618.2 0.2 - Purchases of goods and services 2,510.5 7.1 0.1 1,622.7 2.4 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 488.1 1.4 45.3 425.7 9.8 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,274.5 17.7 4.2 4,411.3 4.8 - Capital expenditure 1,305.1 3.7 0.9 549.5 -10.4 - Capital transfers 388.4 1.1 -21.6 185.9 0.5 - Payment to the EU budget 396.8 1.1 -9.7 268.7 -4.3 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. 23 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). Box 5: Government financing needs in 2012 The increase in the required yield of Slovenian government bonds and the overall deterioration of the financial market situation will aggravate the financing of the government next year (the financing of the general government deficit and the repayment of principals on the government debt). The required yield on Slovenian 10-year government bonds has increased by more than 200 b.p. since the second half of September. It was thus already hovering above 7% for a while in November, which is a much higher figure than in January this year when Slovenia had issued its latest government bond. If the required yield also moves at this high level in the future, the costs of the new government borrowing will be much higher next year. Meanwhile, the financial market conditions continue to deteriorate due to a lack of credible solutions to the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, which was already reflected in November's increase in required government bond yields in certain euro area countries with the highest possible credit ratings (France, Austria, the Netherlands). The deteriorated perception of the country and the tightening of the financial market situation will thus pose a serious challenge for Slovenia next year, even though the borrowing requirement of the government (as a share of GDP) will be smaller or similar to last year's, which was the highest to date (around 10% of GDP). Namely, next year Slovenia will have to repay the principal on the government debt in the amount of EUR 1.27 bn,1 while the general government deficit is expected to climb to EUR 1.49 bn according to the Stability Programme adopted in April this year2 (in total, 7.3% of GDP). Compared with other European countries, Slovenia's borrowing requirement is otherwise relatively low. According to the available data by the IMF for 17 EU Member States, Slovenia's borrowing requirement in 2012 will be the second lowest in the EU, behind Sweden's. Next year's borrowing requirements will be highest (exceeding 20% of GDP) in Italy, Portugal, Belgium, France and Spain, i.e. the countries that had the highest public debts in the EU or where the public debt has been increasing fastest in the EU in the last three years. Figure 36: Required yield of the Slovenian 10-year government bond on the secondary market and the German 10-year government bond Figure 37: Government financing needs in 2012 -Slovenia -Germany s. /V v/ 26 24 22 20 16 14 12 10 — CL CQ u_ Source: MTS, Eurostat. Source: IMF, MF. 1 The amount of the principal repayments due as stated in the central government budget debt records as per 25 October 2011 (Amendment to the Financing Programme of Slovenia's central government budget for the Fiscal Year 2011, November 2011). 2 According to ESA-95 methodology. the first eight months, except expenditure on capital and capital transfers (-7.8%), payments into the EU budget (-4.3%) and subsidies (-1.7%). Strong y-o-y growth was again recorded for expenditure on interest (9.8%) and transfers to individuals and households (4.7%; 6.5% excluding pensions). Transfers to the unemployed are growing fastest (37.9%), in light of deteriorating labour market conditions and as a result of systemic changes. After February's valorisation of pensions, expenditure on pensions has been stable, having grown by 3.6% y-o-y in the first eight months. Expenditure on goods and services rose somewhat (2.4%), while expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures recorded very modest growth (0.2%; last year 0.0%). The deficit of the state budget amounted to EUR 1,206 m in the first eight months of 2011, which is much less than a year before (EUR 1,400 m). The total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus in the amount of EUR 24.2 m, while the health fund ran a deficit of EUR 50.3 m. The transfer from the state budget into the pension fund totalled EUR 1,048. m (up 6.0% from the same period last year). 7 6 5 4 3 8 2 6 4 2 0 0 In the first ten months of this year, Slovenia recorded a net budgetary surplus towards the EU budget in the amount of EUR 255.6 m, which is three times as much as in the same period last year (EUR 77 m). In October, Slovenia received EUR 49.7 m from the EU budget, which is below this year's monthly average (EUR 59 m). Slovenia's payments into the EU budget totalled EUR 32.8 m, so that its net positive budgetary position amounted to just below EUR 17 m. By the end of October, Slovenia received EUR 589 m from the EU budget, which is 69% of the planned receipts (41% in the same period last year). The bulk of receipts (64%) came from structural funds (EUR 377.7 m), the absorption rate of which is fairly high (75.1%). Receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 171.3 m) represent 30% of all receipts and 76.4% of what was planned, while the resources from the Cohesion Fund (EUR 31 m) represent the lowest item (5.2%) in the structure of this year's transfers from the EU budget. The low absorption of cohesion funds (30% of the level planned) is a matter of concern, at it shows a lack of appropriate projects in the area of transport and environment infrastructure or inadequate preparation and implementation of tenders. By the end of October, Slovenia paid EUR 333.6 m into the EU budget, close to 85% of the foreseen amount. Figure 38: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural fund Other I Funds planned by the state budget for 2011 I Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 ■ Total funds received in 2011 (Jan. -Oct.) Total funds received in 2010 200 300 400 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 100 M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Labour market situation of youth during the crisis The already tight situation of youth24 on the labour market continues to deteriorate during the crisis. The worsening of the labour market situation of young people is mainly attributable to a lack of experience and the fact that in most countries young people are easier to fire than their elders. In addition to direct costs, such as increased benefit payments, lost income-tax revenues and wasted capacity, youth unemployment also entails indirect costs, such as emigration (a brain-drain) and a higher crime rate. Furthermore, unemployment at a young age also negatively affects later labour market performance. Namely, the longer the spell of unemployment at a young age, the greater the negative effect. In Slovenia, youth unemployment rose during the crisis, while its share in total unemployment declined. Altogether 10,963 persons aged 25 and younger were unemployed in October this year (1,000 persons or 10.0% more than in October 2007). In the age group of up to 30 year, 27,562 persons were out of work, 6,621 persons (31.6%) more than in October 2007. Total unemployment at the end of October 2011 otherwise amounted to 110,905, having increased by 41,405 persons or 59.6% in the analysed period. The proportion of jobless persons aged 25 or younger in total unemployment fell by 4.5 p.p. in the same period while the proportion of those aged 30 or younger dropped by 5.3 p.p. Looking at educational attainment, the numbers of unemployed young people with a secondary and tertiary education increased the most. The number of first-time job-seekers was also up in the period under review (by 2,429 persons or 16.8%), notably the number of first-time job-seekers with a tertiary education. During the economic crisis, the labour market situation of young people worsened in most countries of the EU. According to the latest available data, the youth unemployment rate (15 to 24 years) in the EU-27 as a whole increased from 15.4% in the second quarter of 2007 to 20.8% in the second quarter of this year. In the analysed period, the youth unemployment rate rose by more than 20 p.p. in Spain (to 46.1%), Lithuania, Ireland, Greece and Latvia, while it declined in Germany (to 8.6%), Belgium and Austria. In Slovenia, the youth unemployment rate is fairly volatile, but was below the EU-27 average throughout the analysed period. In the second quarter of 2011, Slovenia posted a 13.2% unemployment rate for youth, 5.3 p.p. higher than in the second quarter of 2007. In the analysed period, the youth unemployment rate in the EU-27 as a whole was, as in Slovenia, 2.2 times higher than the unemployment rate of other employed persons (aged 25 to 74). Young people also face much lower job security than the rest of the population. Slovenia has one of the largest shares of young people with temporary jobs in the EU. Temporarily employed persons aged 15 to 24 accounted for a high 72.5% in the second quarter, and this share has recently been growing (in the second quarter of 2007, 66.5% persons in the age group of 15 to 24 held temporary jobs). The share of other workers on temporary contracts in Slovenia, i.e. those aged 25 and older, was 13.2% in the same period (13.3% in the second quarter of 2007). The share of temporarily employed young people in the EU-27 otherwise amounted to 42.2% in the second quarter. The large share of young people with temporary jobs in Slovenia is mainly attributable to the employer-friendly system of student work, which is the most cost-effective Figure 39: Share of part-time employment among youth (15-24 years) in Slovenia and EU countries 80 70 60 50 ■ 40 24 The definition of youth varies across literature. The United Nations defines »youth« as persons between the ages of 15 and 24 years, while most European countries (as well as the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia) define youth as persons aged 15 to 29 years. The selected topic is based on data by ESS and Eurostat. The age groups used are adjusted to the available data from these sources. ^ Source: Eurostat. Figure 40: Youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) 50 45 40 30 25 J^ 20 ^^^ 15 10 5 0 a ^ a Source: Eurostat. 30 20 10 0 and the most flexible form of employment available to employers. The share of young people with part-time jobs is also larger than that of the rest of the population. In the second quarter of 2011, 30.3% of young people, on average, had part-time jobs in the EU-27 (40.1% in Slovenia). During the economic crisis, the shares of young people on temporary or part-time contracts in Slovenia increased more than in the EU-27. The OECD emphasises that helping young people on the labour market should be one of economic policy priorities in a time of economic crisis.25 The OECD does not expect the labour market situation of young people to improve in the short term, but targeting youth will reduce the risk of young people falling into long-term unemployment and losing touch with the job market. The OECD recommends early government interventions to improve youth labour market outcomes by increasing job security of young people, providing training with regard to future labour market needs and facilitating the transition from school to the labour market. The OECD countries are addressing the labour market situation of young people in different ways. To reduce barriers to labour market transition, some of the countries invest in funds helping young people to gain new knowledge and skills (Spain, for instance, which faces a very high youth unemployment rate). Moreover, countries are also lowering the costs of young workers - for instance, by lower sub-minimum wage rates for youth or by subsidising companies that hire low-skilled unemployed youth. Another priority should be labour market reform intended to decrease the share of young people with temporary or part-time jobs and thus break the vicious circle of uncertain jobs and increase the transparency of job opportunities over a longer term. Furthermore, labour market entry should be facilitated by ensuring a better match between the skills acquired at school and those needed on the labour market (e.g. through internship during the course of study, as is the case in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, however, only to the extent that this would not have negative effects on academic performance). The UN Human Development Report 2011 In the UN Human Development Report 2011, Slovenia is still placed relatively high according to the Human Development Index (HDI).26 The Development Report 2011 pursues last year's commitment to broader, more encompassing measures of well-being and emphasises once more that economic growth does not necessarily translate into social or environmental well-being. In 2011, the Slovenian Human Development Index totals 0.884. Slovenian is thus ranked 21s' out of 187 countries, which is the same position as last year, when its HDI was 0.882 and Slovenia was 21s' among 169 countries.27 The highest index values 25 OECD (2010), Off to a Good Start? Jobs for Youth; OECD (2011), Governments must act on rising long-term unemployment and youth joblessness. were recorded for Norway (0.943) and Australia (0.929). Slovenia remains in the group of countries with very high human development. Its relatively high position (behind Austria and France and ahead of Finland, Spain, Italy and Luxembourg) is mainly attributable to the education dimension, as it is placed especially high on the indicators of expected years of schooling (4'h) and average years of schooling of adults (14'h). In terms of life expectancy, which is one of the health indicators, and on the income indicator, it is 30'h and 31s', respectively. Three new indices were experimentally introduced last year: IHDI (the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index), MPI (the Multidimensional Poverty Index) and GII (the Gender Inequality Index). The IHDI should, given its concept, always be viewed alongside the HDI when we measure inequality in a country. If there is no inequality in the analysed well-being dimensions, the HDI equals the IHDI. In 2011, the Slovenian IHDI was 0.837, 5.3% lower than the HDI. Among highly developed countries, only the Czech Republic recorded a smaller »loss« (5.0%) in potential human development due to inequality than Slovenia. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which is otherwise very problematic (at least as regards data), captures the incidence of multidimensional deprivation as a proportion of the population deprived in at least three of ten deprivation indicators, as well as the intensity of deprivation, which is defined as the average number of indicators in which poor people are deprived. The index was calculated only for 12 of 47 highly developed countries, based on data for 2003. The MPI for Slovenia is only an estimate, totalling 0% on all indicators except the risk of poverty (estimated at 0.4%). The Slovenian Gender Inequality Indicator (GII)28 is 0.175 this year, ranking Slovenia 18'h among 187 countries, which is almost the same position as last year (17'h out of 138 countries included in the survey). The top position in terms of the GII is held by Sweden, which is trailed by the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland and Finland. Slovenia is ranked lowest particularly on the indicator of political representation of women, as the share of women in the Slovenian parliament (10.8% according to the UNPD 26 Last year, the Human Development Index underwent a series of methodological changes (see SEM, November 2010, pp. 28-30), which rendered the data for 2010 and 2011 incomparable with those for previous years. Moreover, data are also incomparable due to continuous yearly improvements, because of which the Report also includes retroactive recalculations of data for previous years. The index captures three well-being dimensions: health, education and income. Health is still measured by life expectancy at birth, while education is now monitored by average years of schooling of the population aged 25 and older and expected years of schooling for a child of school-entrance age. To measure population income, gross national income per capita is used (in purchasing power parity terms in US dollars). 27 Last year's Report otherwise ranked Slovenia 29'h (the index value of 0.828), which was a resul' of a mistake in calculating 'he average years of schooling. The mistake (pointed ou' by IMAD) was corrected 'his year (also in calculations for 2010). 28 The GII measures women's reproductive health ('he maternal mortality ratio and fertility rates of adul' women), gender differences in educational attainment (participation in secondary and 'er'iary education) and female and male participation in political activities and in the labour force (the share of parliamentary sea's and labour force participation rates). The index ranges between 0 and 1, wi'h higher values indicating worse achievements. data for 2008) is below the global average (17.7%) and even lower than the average of countries with the lowest human development (18.2%) and Arab countries (12.0%). In Scandinavian countries, this indicator averages 40%.29 The Development Report also offers a wide range of additional well-being indicators such as overall life satisfaction, satisfaction with government to reduce emissions, satisfaction with actions to preserve the environment and satisfaction with air and water quality. Slovenia is characterised by a decline in satisfaction with life: the average rating of life satisfaction in 20062010 totalled 6.1 (on a 0-10 scale, with 0 meaning totally dissatisfied), placing Slovenia 47'h among 152 countries (for other countries data are not available), while the average result for 2006-2009 in last year's report amounted to 7.1.30 The highest rankings on the life satisfaction indicator were recorded for Denmark (7.8) and Canada (7.7). Figure 41: Average HDI value 0.95 0.85 0.80 0.70 i^y ^^ tj 1= E3tia t| =2 fe: t:: Source: HDR; calculations by IMAD. Productivity in the agriculture, forestry and fishing activities Given the nature of work, productivity in agriculture, forestry and fishing activities (the primary sector) tends to be low in comparison with the average productivity of the economy. National policies attempt to address this problem by measures aimed at developing professional competencies of producers, restructuring the economy, improving infrastructure, boosting innovation and adding value to products. Increased productivity would improve the income position of producers and increase output, which would be highly welcome, as Slovenia's output is relatively low;31 nonetheless, a free and rapid development of activities is not acceptable, as it is also necessary to take account of all strict sustainability rules. In the course of the last decade, the productivity of the Slovenian primary sector was rising faster than that of the entire economy, mainly due to declining employment. Despite this increase, primary sector productivity reached only 30% of the average productivity of the economy. Measured in value added per employee, it came to EUR 9,500 in 2010, according to national accounts, making up 29.5% of the comparable average of all activities.32 In the last decade it grew 87.4% in nominal terms, 5.7% more than in all activities as a whole, but this growth was mainly attributable to a steep decline in employment. Primary sector employment slumped from 107.4 thousand to 80.9 thousand persons over the last decade and its share in total employment of the economy diminished by 11.7% to 8.4%. Among primary sector activities, productivity was lowest in agriculture (EUR 8,500 in 2010), with four fifths of all persons employed in primary activities creating only three quarters of the total value added. In forestry activities, productivity was almost twice as high but is growing at a slower pace. Productivity was also much higher in fishery related activities, but these are fairly insignificant for Slovenia's economy given the modest value added and a low number of persons employed. In the EU, the productivity of the primary sector is, on average, much higher than in Slovenia, which is in the bottom third of EU Member States in terms of both primary sector productivity and its lag behind the average productivity of the economy. In the EU, this sector's productivity averaged EUR 15,600 per employee in 2010, according to national accounts, a 64.2% higher figure than in Slovenia. Slovenia lagged 11.0 p.p. more behind the EU average in terms of primary sector productivity than in the productivity of the total economy (the latter was 53.2% higher in the EU than in Slovenia). The productivity of the primary sector in the EU totalled 31.6% of the average productivity of the economy, 2.1 p.p. more than in Slovenia. The top of the list is dominated by certain northern European countries with large shares of forestry activities (Sweden, Finland) and countries characterised by highly intensive farming (France, the Netherlands, Denmark), which boast several times higher productivity than Slovenia. Furthermore, over the last few years certain countries saw an exceptionally rapid increase in this sector's productivity on account of a rapid decline in employment and a concurrent increase in value added (Slovakia), while certain other countries which otherwise do not have favourable conditions for this activity bettered their results by products with higher value added, such as organic products. This group includes Austria, in particular, as well as Sweden and Estonia, which are at the European forefront regarding 29 This year's election brought a significant change, as 28 women were elected to the National Assembly according to unofficial results, which is a 31.3% share. 30 Data from the Gallup World Poll database (2010). 31 See SEM, October 2011, p. 29. 32 Value added expressed at basic prices includes subsidies on agricultural products, which are relatively low in Slovenia. According to the economic accounts for agriculture, subsidies on products accounted for 4.4% of total subsidies in 2010. the share of the area under organic farming in the total utilised agricultural area. Under similar natural conditions and with a larger share of organic farming, the productivity of the primary sector in Austria is much higher than in Slovenia, which means that productivity could be increased in Slovenia as well. In Austria, value added per employee in the primary sector amounted to EUR 18,600 in 2010, nearly twice the value recorded in Slovenia. A significantly higher productivity than in Slovenia is also shown by certain other indicators obtained from the economic accounts for agriculture.33 In 2010, Austria recorded the value of agricultural production per annual work unit34 that was three times as high as in Slovenia (in Austria EUR 43.300, in Slovenia EUR 14.300) and the factor income35 per annual work unit triple that in Slovenia (in Austria EUR 15,900, in Slovenia EUR 5,300). The factor income is, similar to that in Slovenia, particularly high in animal products. Unlike Slovenia, Austria also saw a relatively high level of productivity for certain crops. Under less favourable natural conditions, Austria thus covers more than two thirds of its needs for vegetables (Slovenia less than 40%), meaning that Slovenia's primary sector could nearly double the total value added simply by raising productivity to the level recorded in Austria. This comparison also shows that there is still significant room for a further development of the activity. However, this is no easy task. Figure 42: Productivity in the primary sector ^^m Productivity (left axis) -----Productivity EU-27 (left axis) ♦ Ratio of agricultural productivity to total productivity of the economy (right axis) 90 80 70 cu cu Si 60 a E 50 g^ 40 ^^^ 30 20 10 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 m Source: Eurostat, National accounts. Note: France, year 2008; data for the UK are not available. Table 10: Value added, employment and productivity of Slovenia's primary sector in 2000-2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010/ 2000 Value added, current prices, in EUR m Activities, total 16,176.7 18,173.0 20,212.2 22,001.1 23,775.7 25,177.4 27,225.0 30,335.6 32,716.1 30,788.1 30,822.4 90.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 543.1 549.6 659.5 540.1 629.8 666.4 627.0 743.4 798.0 749.8 766.6 41.2 01 Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 447.3 446.2 551.2 431.1 521.9 544.0 476.9 562.4 618.7 576.3 594.9 33.0 O2 Forestry and logging 93.4 100.7 105.8 105.8 105.2 119.6 147.3 178.2 176.8 169.5 167.6 79.4 03 Fishing and aquaculture 2.4 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.5 3.9 4.0 66.7 Employment, in '000 Activities, total 914.5 919.7 934.2 931.4 935.1 930.8 945.2 976.7 1,001.9 983.7 958.8 4.8 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 107.4 103.3 99.5 96.2 93.6 91.0 87.9 85.8 84.0 82.6 80.9 -24.7 01 Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 96.8 92.5 89.4 85.8 85.1 81.4 76.4 74.8 72.8 70.8 69.7 -28.0 O2 Forestry and logging 10.3 10.5 9.7 10.0 8.3 9.3 11.2 10.7 11.0 11.5 10.9 5.8 03 Fishing and aquaculture 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -25.0 Value added/employee, current prices, in EUR '000 Activities, total 17.7 19.8 21.6 23.6 25.4 27.0 28.8 31.1 32.7 31.3 32.1 81.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.1 5.3 6.6 5.6 6.7 7.3 7.1 8.7 9.5 9.1 9.5 87.4 01 Crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities 4.6 4.8 6.2 5.0 6.1 6.7 6.2 7.5 8.5 8.1 8.5 84.7 O2 Forestry and logging 9.1 9.6 10.9 10.6 12.7 12.9 13.2 16.7 16.1 14.7 15.4 69.6 03 Fishing and aquaculture 6.0 6.8 6.0 8.0 9.0 9.3 14.5 14.0 12.5 19.5 13.3 122.2 33 The economic accounts for agriculture are satellite accounts of national accounts for agriculture, but there are some methodological differences. 34 One annual work unit corresponds to the work performed by one person who is occupied on an agricultural holding on a full-time basis. 35 The factor income consists of the output value at producer prices plus both types of subsidies (on products and production) less intermediate consumption, consumption of fixed capital and taxes. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Autumn forecast 2011 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 5.8 6.9 3.6 -8.0 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 31,050 34,562 37,280 35,311 35,416 35,924 37,334 38,871 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 15,464 17,120 18,437 17,295 17,286 17,601 18,256 18,974 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,700 21,200 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 88 91 88 87 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,677 33,828 36,232 34,593 34,894 35,357 36,522 38,032 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,462 33,601 35,871 34,344 34,940 35,420 36,460 38,039 Rate of registered unemployment 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 8.0 8.0 8.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.2 3.4 1.0 -6.3 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.2 9.5 7.9 6.3 6.7 Exports of goods 13.4 13.9 0.5 -18.1 11.0 8.7 6.9 7.1 Exports of services 8.6 13.2 14.3 -13.7 4.1 4.6 3.8 4.9 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.2 16.7 3.7 -19.6 7.2 5.2 4.6 4.9 Imports of goods 12.7 16.2 3.0 -20.8 8.0 5.5 4.6 4.9 Imports of services 8.8 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.6 3.1 4.9 5.4 Current account balance, in EUR million -771 -1646 -2574 -456 -297 -351 -181 378 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.5 -4.8 -6.9 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 1.0 Gross external debt, in EUR million 24,067 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,699 42,7545 As a per cent share relative to GDP 77.5 100.6 105.2 114.1 114.9 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.418 1.434 1.434 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 As a % of GDP4 52.8 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.3 55.3 54.4 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 -0.5 0.1 As a % of GDP4 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.8 20.1 19.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 10.4 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -7.5 6.0 5.0 As a % of GDP4 26.5 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 20.0 20.8 21.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2011). Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End September 2011. PRODUCTION 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.5 -17.4 6.2 -18.4 -7.1 -0.4 10.7 7.2 7.4 8.9 4.0 0.1 -16.8 -19.6 -1.8 4.7 -8.4 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 -2.9 11.0 6.1 4.8 -7.2 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.2 -9.2 -8.9 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -5.5 C Manufacturing 2.6 -18.7 6.6 -19.5 -7.9 -0.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 9.5 4.4 -0.2 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.1 -6.6 1.8 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.6 3.4 4.9 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 -21.0 -17.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.2 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 Buildings 11.5 -22.5 -14.0 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.4 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 Civil engineering 18.9 -19.9 -19.0 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -19.6 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 18.4 -9.2 7.9 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -2.3 -24.2 28.2 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 10.1 -13.0 3.6 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.7 5.8 7.3 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 Real turnover in retail trade 12.2 -10.6 -0.1 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.7 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.2 -21.7 12.1 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.4 11.8 14.1 15.4 15.0 17.8 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 17.1 -21.4 1.4 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.6 4.4 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.8 -3.4 -1.5 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.2 2.8 -4.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -0.5 -8.0 0.7 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 6.7 -7.8 2.8 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.6 -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 529.9 449.3 454.5 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 3 -22 -9 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -13 -12 -14 -13 -10 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 -23 -1 -19 -12 -7 -1 2 0 4 3 -1 -14 -15 -11 -11 -6 - in construction 2 -50 -57 -54 -51 -57 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -55 -55 -48 -49 -55 - in services 27 -14 -3 -9 -1 -2 -5 -1 -3 1 4 3 -4 5 -5 -3 5 - in retail trade 22 -13 7 -9 -7 -6 11 12 12 1 14 2 -6 -7 -7 -6 -8 Consumer confidence indicator -20 -30 -25 -23 -25 -25 -23 -27 -25 -27 -25 -25 -17 -26 -24 -26 -25 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 -1.6 8.1 8.5 14.1 9.6 6.3 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 13.9 6.9 6.7 3.6 4.6 3.7 -1.0 -1.5 2.5 -16.5 0.2 9.4 19.0 7.4 15.9 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 -5.6 -0.7 -8.4 -4.3 -22.4 0.6 -8.3 -17.7 -0.2 -1.3 9.0 9.7 15.2 11.0 7.4 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 14.7 7.1 7.5 3.6 5.5 4.1 -1.4 -2.5 2.9 - - -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 10.6 5.9 3.2 5.3 2.0 4.0 11.8 -0.4 - - -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.0 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.4 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -8.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -3.6 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.3 -0.1 6.4 2.4 - -5.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -1.0 -1.1 5.7 2.2 0.7 -0.4 14.1 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 2.8 2.3 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.1 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 5.9 0.8 -0.6 8.5 5.4 - - -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 3.0 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -1.9 - -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 6.7 - -1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.1 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.2 4.7 6.9 - - 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 -11 -15 -12 -9 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -8 -6 -3 -1 1 5 1 1 3 -1 -1 4 4 3 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -9 -7 -56 -61 -62 -58 -59 -60 -56 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -50 -49 -44 -45 -46 -43 -43 -44 -46 2 -12 -9 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 4 5 3 3 3 5 2 0 -3 -6 -5 9 9 14 10 14 12 13 10 12 -4 12 -4 13 17 13 -2 -8 16 15 16 -23 -26 -24 -23 -21 -27 -27 -27 -26 -24 -26 -26 -28 -26 -27 -24 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 LABOUR MARKET 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 942.5 944.5 935.5 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 879.3 858.2 835.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 850.4 850.0 844.7 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 39.7 37.9 33.4 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 37.9 37.8 37.7 In industry, construction 330.4 306.9 287.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 298.8 297.6 294.0 Of which: in manufacturing 222.4 199.8 188.6 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 192.5 192.1 190.6 in construction 87.9 86.8 78.5 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 86.0 85.2 83.3 In services 509.1 513.4 514.3 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 513.7 514.6 512.9 Of which: in public administration 51.0 51.5 52.0 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.6 51.7 51.6 in education, health-services, social work 111.1 113.8 116.7 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 114.6 114.9 114.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 789.9 767.4 747.2 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 758.3 757.7 752.4 In enterprises and organisations 717.6 699.4 685.7 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 691.8 691.8 687.8 By those self-employed 72.3 67.9 61.5 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 66.5 65.9 64.6 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 89.4 90.8 87.8 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 92.1 92.3 92.2 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 63.2 86.4 100.5 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 94.6 95.4 96.7 Female 33.4 42.4 47.9 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 46.3 46.5 46.5 By age: under 26 9.1 13.3 13.9 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 15.5 15.1 14.8 aged over 50 21.9 26.2 31.4 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 27.8 28.3 28.7 Unskilled 25.4 34.1 37.5 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 36.1 36.4 37.2 For more than 1 year 32.3 31.5 42.8 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 32.5 33.3 34.4 Those receiving benefits 14.4 27.4 30.0 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 30.8 30.3 31.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 6.7 9.1 10.7 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 10.0 10.1 10.3 Male 5.6 8.3 10.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 Female 8.1 10.2 11.6 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 11.1 11.2 11.2 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -2.2 30.4 13.3 1.9 8.3 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 6.2 0.9 1.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.5 17.0 16.8 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 5.9 1.3 0.9 Redundancies 53.0 90.5 83.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 8.5 7.9 6.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 41.7 48.6 57.0 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 4.4 4.8 3.9 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 26.1 28.5 29.9 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 3.8 3.6 2.5 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 240.5 161.3 174.6 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 15.7 11.7 11.6 For a fixed term, in % 74.5 78.1 80.7 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 78.2 80.1 77.7 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 51.5 54.9 41.6 53.0 47.3 44.1 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 48.9 47.2 45.8 As % of labour force 5.5 5.8 4.4 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 5.2 5.0 4.9 NEW JOBS 162.7 111.4 104.1 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 11.9 8.9 7.6 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2010 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 2.9 0.2 -0.9 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 44.8 44.2 43.3 42.9 42.1 41.4 40.7 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 6 7 8 9 10 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 8.3 3.4 3.9 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.1 -0.2 5.8 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 B Mining and quarrying 13.4 0.9 4.0 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 C Manufacturing 7.5 0.8 9.0 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.5 3.8 3.7 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.8 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 F Constrution 7.5 1.0 4.4 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.7 1.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 H Transportation and storage 8.4 0.7 2.0 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 8.3 1.6 4.0 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 J Information and communication 7.3 1.4 2.6 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 K Financial and insurance activities 6.0 -0.7 1.0 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 L Real estate activities 6.0 1.9 3.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 8.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 N Administrative and support service activities 9.6 1.8 4.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 12.2 5.9 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 P Education 7.0 3.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 12.0 -0.3 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.3 3.9 0.5 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 S Other service activities 8.2 1.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.5 0.4 -1.7 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.8 0.7 -1.4 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.3 -0.9 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 Real (relative producer prices)2 0.8 2.9 -2.8 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.1 -0.7 -1.0 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.8 3.9 USD/EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.367 1.439 1.413 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'Relative to 17 trading partners; weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Industrial producer prices in manufacturing activities. 2009 2010 2011 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.3 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -0.6 -1.1 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 1.336 1.365 1.400 1.444 1.435 1.439 1.426 1.434 1.377 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 8 9 10 11 12 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 0.8 10.8 - - - - - - - 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: "The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 qH Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 9 10 11 12 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -2,574 -456 -297 -268 -10 -4 -118 -84 -91 -54 76 -10 -10 -37 99 -72 Goods1 -2,648 -703 -1,205 -230 -287 -190 -273 -234 -508 -306 -257 -207 -17 -50 -79 -158 Exports 20,032 16,167 18,386 3,950 4,219 4,205 4,695 4,640 4,847 5,020 5,344 5,142 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 Imports 22,680 16,870 19,591 4,180 4,506 4,394 4,968 4,874 5,355 5,327 5,601 5,349 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 Services 1,424 1,165 1,308 258 303 291 356 346 315 353 442 383 114 130 95 78 Exports 4,957 4,347 4,633 1,222 1,104 981 1,129 1,348 1,176 1,084 1,224 1,412 392 384 333 387 Imports 3,533 3,182 3,325 964 800 690 773 1,001 861 731 782 1,029 278 254 238 308 Income -1,062 -766 -507 -235 -107 -51 -158 -202 -95 -147 -140 -190 -78 -62 18 -62 Receipts 1,262 666 682 137 221 135 194 168 185 213 237 220 43 45 107 70 Expenditure 2,324 1,432 1,188 372 328 186 353 370 280 360 378 410 121 107 89 132 Current transfers -287 -152 106 -61 81 -53 -43 6 196 47 32 4 -29 -55 65 70 Receipts 887 966 1,218 177 377 263 220 274 461 374 316 306 44 61 149 167 Expenditure 1,174 1,118 1,112 238 296 317 263 268 265 328 284 302 73 116 84 97 Capital and financial account 2,605 154 319 211 80 -19 253 190 -106 87 -288 -74 152 75 -50 54 Capital account -25 -9 8 -4 -42 46 3 16 -56 -7 -6 -8 1 1 25 -67 Financial account 2,631 164 311 215 121 -65 251 174 -50 94 -282 -66 151 75 -75 121 Direct investment 346 -644 334 -36 -86 -132 74 57 335 74 253 221 -13 -30 -81 25 Domestic abroad -983 -174 60 22 -20 -51 59 19 32 1 37 56 -19 -29 35 -26 Foreign in Slovenia 1,329 -470 274 -58 -66 -81 15 37 303 73 216 166 5 -2 -115 51 Portfolio investment 572 4,628 1,947 2,293 310 1,106 508 -54 388 2,591 -314 -419 1,644 -14 -71 394 Financial derivatives 46 -2 -117 12 -2 -22 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -12 8 3 3 -7 Other investment 1,645 -3,985 -1,872 -2,041 -120 -1,077 -216 167 -746 -2,500 -218 112 -1,499 109 63 -292 Assets -333 -277 683 -976 105 241 -594 531 504 -1,569 -206 -378 -1,068 213 -403 295 Commercial credits -142 416 -174 -35 226 -223 -213 30 232 -320 -88 36 -117 -69 -32 327 Loans -325 -1 164 -39 46 -348 510 20 -18 -101 -22 51 -46 -1 35 13 Currency and deposits 130 -613 609 -913 -68 815 -885 387 292 -1,152 -97 -433 -911 281 -407 59 Other assets 4 -80 84 11 -99 -2 -6 94 -2 6 2 -32 6 3 2 -104 Liabilities 1,978 -3,708 -2,555 -1,065 -226 -1,319 378 -364 -1,250 -931 -13 490 -431 -105 465 -587 Commercial credits -73 -452 364 24 -75 91 262 -63 73 199 -13 -83 114 89 82 -246 Loans 1,869 -2,911 -974 -78 -973 -403 -189 -8 -373 -386 -298 232 -62 -160 33 -846 Deposits 190 -318 -1,934 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 -909 -787 334 340 -482 -36 358 500 Other liabilities -7 -27 -11 -28 0 72 -54 12 -42 42 -36 1 -2 2 -8 5 International reserves2 21 167 19 -13 20 62 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 12 8 11 1 Statistical error -31 302 -21 58 -70 22 -135 -106 197 -34 212 84 -142 -38 -49 18 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,241 1,783 1,811 407 473 403 456 442 510 439 507 N/A 150 167 154 151 Intermediate goods 10,760 8,090 9,951 2,025 2,093 2,235 2,542 2,544 2,630 2,842 3,043 N/A 751 782 730 581 Consumer goods 6,808 6,144 6,481 1,482 1,620 1,533 1,663 1,620 1,664 1,700 1,741 N/A 572 540 578 502 Import of investment goods 3,441 2,288 2,293 521 633 450 612 570 661 555 605 N/A 197 218 208 207 Intermediate goods 13,735 9,823 12,117 2,458 2,649 2,711 3,064 3,032 3,311 3,439 3,508 N/A 886 913 937 799 Consumer goods 5,870 5,004 5,470 1,255 1,292 1,290 1,355 1,351 1,475 1,376 1,509 N/A 441 447 433 413 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 30 -112 78 -27 -87 -5 -21 -58 -6 -41 -57 7 -5 -95 47 42 -75 110 42 -90 39 -25 -121 -44 -99 -147 -27 -45 -122 -68 -155 -151 -202 -71 -117 -119 -93 -169 5 -7 -134 -66 1,228 1,328 1,649 1,468 1,566 1,661 1,604 1,306 1,729 1,656 1,700 1,491 1,534 1,602 1,884 1,694 1,836 1,815 1,736 1,511 1,896 1,253 1,448 1,693 1,567 1,713 1,688 1,649 1,428 1,797 1,811 1,850 1,693 1,605 1,719 2,003 1,787 2,004 1,810 1,742 1,644 1,962 99 84 107 119 125 113 88 115 143 132 87 97 124 94 136 162 136 144 90 135 158 315 302 363 373 370 386 462 448 437 394 356 426 353 326 405 414 392 418 477 477 458 216 218 256 254 245 274 374 333 295 262 269 330 229 233 269 252 256 275 387 342 300 -17 -24 -11 -28 -39 -91 -90 -57 -56 -28 -36 -31 -55 -55 -37 -53 -41 -46 -59 -66 -65 42 40 53 58 72 64 65 52 51 54 52 80 61 63 88 70 85 82 77 70 72 59 64 64 85 112 156 155 108 106 81 88 110 117 118 125 124 126 128 137 136 137 -27 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 43 144 -2 -17 66 26 -1 8 18 -25 12 65 85 113 57 83 80 117 89 68 103 125 234 84 129 161 114 104 98 116 70 119 93 136 87 75 108 80 92 83 93 93 82 90 86 147 95 88 105 91 99 96 107 5 35 -59 88 5 160 142 -40 88 59 -236 71 -150 57 180 10 21 -320 5 -35 -45 -7 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 4 -63 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 12 37 -114 86 8 157 149 -36 61 56 -240 134 -140 55 179 13 21 -316 12 -31 -47 -37 -72 -23 -26 19 81 89 36 -68 74 213 47 -82 -13 168 98 99 55 19 77 125 16 -54 -14 -11 29 41 8 25 -14 -8 36 5 -56 22 35 -8 8 36 -57 43 70 -54 -18 -9 -15 -11 41 80 11 -54 82 178 43 -26 -35 133 106 90 20 76 34 55 1,357 -446 195 609 -202 100 78 -29 -103 68 182 138 1,136 -206 1,661 -360 271 -224 72 -48 -444 -2 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 -8 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 0 0 -12 -1,356 550 -271 -518 272 31 -9 -34 211 -97 -615 -34 -1,175 288 -1,613 266 -344 -141 -68 -75 254 172 44 25 -24 -631 61 697 -203 37 -168 -624 1,296 -1,056 337 -850 61 -99 -167 -511 -34 166 0 -42 -182 -37 -88 -87 -6 195 -158 -102 -68 402 -217 29 -132 -83 29 -35 -39 199 -124 -24 19 -343 415 25 70 127 18 -124 -33 -3 18 -51 4 -55 14 -16 -19 -19 29 41 203 62 551 -409 -554 78 568 -488 308 -20 -547 858 -779 311 -685 119 -109 -107 -438 -244 249 -6 5 -1 7 -13 0 9 73 12 -13 -5 17 -9 -7 22 11 -3 -6 -14 -19 1 -1,528 506 -296 -494 902 -30 -705 168 173 71 8 -1,330 -119 -49 -763 206 -244 26 443 -40 88 -89 69 112 54 127 82 -30 -182 149 135 61 -123 -43 61 181 143 8 -164 -9 -261 187 -39 -18 -346 -279 328 -238 -40 -21 53 -240 242 -375 -109 -86 -190 -213 -226 141 242 -41 31 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 -6 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 23 17 -5 -7 -30 30 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -31 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -35 77 -20 -62 82 -155 -121 97 -82 -18 293 -79 155 38 -227 -52 54 210 -46 125 6 116 120 167 142 155 158 159 125 159 164 170 176 126 141 172 153 180 174 174 153 N/A 657 725 853 803 856 883 878 713 952 920 927 783 888 904 1,050 977 1,042 1,023 998 908 N/A 445 473 615 513 543 607 554 458 607 558 591 515 509 544 647 548 594 599 546 433 N/A 122 149 180 213 218 180 179 148 243 188 226 247 148 173 235 182 221 202 202 161 N/A 794 906 1,010 956 1,068 1,040 1,039 888 1,106 1,153 1,128 1,030 1,032 1,106 1,301 1,126 1,238 1,145 1,107 1,041 N/A 362 395 533 430 462 463 452 420 479 496 536 443 421 451 503 471 551 487 469 468 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 68 160 138 142 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 Central government (S. 1311) 2,162 3,497 3,419 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 212 376 526 251 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 Households (S. 14, 15) 7,827 8,413 9,282 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,149 21,704 21,648 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,815 2,680 2,496 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,666 5,302 5,812 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 32,113 34,731 35,994 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 In foreign currency 2,370 1,895 1,843 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 Securities, total 3,346 5,345 5,345 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 23,129 27,965 26,767 26,576 26,207 25,956 26,950 26,861 26,932 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 Overnight 6,605 7,200 8,155 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,971 10,408 8,193 12,647 11,167 10,667 11,332 11,109 10,917 10,408 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 With agreed maturity -long-term 4,157 9,788 10,337 6,212 7,630 7,749 8,000 8,257 8,396 9,788 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,396 569 82 554 548 529 539 555 591 569 577 532 504 525 Deposits in foreign currency, total 490 434 463 492 480 463 463 458 453 434 426 438 436 450 Overnight 215 238 285 249 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 With agreed maturity -short-term 198 141 121 199 195 178 171 169 142 141 133 137 127 121 With agreed maturity -long-term 41 45 55 39 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 55 55 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 36 10 2 5 7 7 5 5 7 10 5 8 4 4 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.46 0.28 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 4.30 2.51 1.82 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.77 6.43 5.53 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.62 6.28 5.75 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.63 1.23 0.81 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 6-month rates 4.72 1.44 1.08 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.58 0.37 0.19 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 6-month rates 2.69 0.50 0.27 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2010 2011 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 21,997 22,015 22,022 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,648 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,496 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,812 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 35,620 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,975 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,580 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 28,085 27929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,629 7,732 7976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,056 8,674 8377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,375 11,196 11401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,145 483 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 496 705 462 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 299 513 280 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 130 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 59 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 8 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.4 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.50 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 2 1 3 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15.339,2 14.408,0 14.794,0 3.558,8 4.023,5 3.310,2 3.477,0 3.649,9 4.356,8 3.600,7 3.826,7 3.667,6 1.164,2 1.069,1 Current revenues 14.792,3 13.639,5 13.771,5 3.470,3 3.642,3 3.157,4 3.366,8 3.462,4 3.784,8 3.364,6 3.638,5 3.490,6 1.116,0 993,6 Tax revenues 13.937,4 12.955,4 12.848,4 3.279,0 3.453,0 2.983,4 3.189,2 3.186,0 3.489,9 3.155,9 3.451,0 3.296,0 1.053,8 935,4 Taxes on income and profit 3.442,2 2.805,1 2.490,7 735,5 744,8 635,5 594,4 554,5 706,4 635,4 827,7 639,2 219,9 191,3 Social security contributions 5.095,0 5.161,3 5.234,5 1.260,6 1.334,5 1.274,4 1.303,8 1.293,5 1.362,9 1.300,6 1.316,9 1.314,9 414,6 435,7 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258,0 28,5 28,1 6,2 7,7 6,3 7,2 6,5 8,1 6,7 7,6 7,8 2,0 2,2 Taxes on property 214,9 207,0 219,7 74,6 60,2 24,1 58,9 76,7 60,0 24,0 53,8 72,1 8,6 8,8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4.805,3 4.660,2 4.780,7 1.184,2 1.283,1 1.023,9 1.199,2 1.231,6 1.325,9 1.165,5 1.217,4 1.234,4 401,7 291,0 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120,1 90,5 90,7 17,2 21,7 18,7 24,7 22,5 24,8 23,7 27,6 27,7 6,9 6,1 Other taxes 1,8 2,9 4,0 0,7 1,0 0,5 1,0 0,7 1,8 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0,1 0,3 Non-tax revenues 854,9 684,1 923,0 191,3 189,3 174,1 177,6 276,5 294,9 208,7 187,6 194,6 62,1 58,2 Capital revenues 117,3 106,5 175,7 19,3 43,5 9,8 17,9 26,1 121,9 7,6 21,6 15,8 2,7 4,9 Grants 10,4 11,1 12,6 1,9 4,7 2,9 2,2 2,5 5,0 2,4 3,0 2,2 0,2 2,5 Transferred revenues 53,9 54,3 109,5 1,1 51,5 0,5 2,3 3,8 102,9 2,3 0,4 0,4 0,2 0,3 Receipts from the EU budget 365,4 596,5 724,7 66,2 281,5 139,6 87,8 155,1 342,2 223,9 163,2 158,6 45,1 67,9 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15.441,7 16.368,2 16.692,7 3.767,1 4.659,5 4.035,1 4.122,7 3.948,1 4.586,9 4.190,5 4.158,5 4.107,4 1.372,1 1.355,7 Current expenditures 6.557,5 6.800,8 6.960,4 1.578,1 1.771,3 1.795,2 1.757,3 1.636,9 1.771,0 1.898,2 1.742,3 1.648,8 631,6 643,6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3.578,9 3.911,9 3.912,4 955,4 985,9 956,4 1.012,5 963,6 980,0 966,5 1.009,8 1.019,1 315,2 324,6 Expenditures on goods and services 2.527,5 2.510,3 2.512,4 603,9 741,4 556,8 624,9 587,7 743,1 585,4 616,1 610,6 179,3 206,8 Interest payments 335,2 336,1 488,2 12,0 29,0 272,6 110,0 76,4 29,2 311,3 108,1 10,7 134,5 109,4 Reserves 116,0 42,5 47,4 6,8 14,9 9,4 9,9 9,2 18,8 35,0 8,2 8,3 2,7 2,8 Current transfers 6.742,2 7.339,4 7.628,5 1.736,9 1.918,2 1.849,0 1.995,1 1.810,9 1.973,6 1.941,9 2.076,0 2.060,7 578,4 619,2 Subsidies 476,5 597,9 581,9 86,5 219,4 160,7 122,8 103,7 194,7 171,2 127,6 109,4 22,6 27,0 Current transfers to individuals and households 5.619,2 6.024,5 6.277,7 1.475,9 1.497,6 1.529,0 1.671,1 1.514,7 1.562,9 1.606,1 1.745,3 1.740,9 506,0 527,9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598,3 678,1 728,8 164,5 195,1 150,6 188,6 183,3 206,3 158,7 186,1 192,7 48,3 59,8 Current transfers abroad 48,2 38,9 40,1 9,9 6,1 8,7 12,6 9,1 9,6 5,9 17,0 17,8 1,6 4,5 Capital expenditures 1.255,5 1.294,1 1.310,6 297,5 584,1 192,8 212,5 321,1 584,3 168,8 196,5 220,8 60,9 58,3 Capital transfers 458,6 494,6 396,4 86,0 259,9 47,5 90,1 82,0 176,9 42,3 73,1 94,2 14,1 14,3 Payments to the EU budget 427,9 439,3 396,8 68,7 126,1 150,6 67,8 97,3 81,1 139,3 70,6 82,9 87,0 20,3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,886.4 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2010 2011 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 1.083,1 1.146,4 1.247,5 1.183,6 1.286,2 1.180,1 1.188,3 1.461,5 1.707,1 1.205,5 1.118,2 1.277,0 1.256,2 1.269,2 1.301,2 1.097,2 1.220,5 1.220,5 1.062,1 1.113,2 1.191,5 1.110,0 1.232,7 1.119,7 1.132,5 1.263,8 1.388,4 1.147,1 1.045,0 1.172,5 1.185,3 1.208,5 1.244,8 1.037,3 1.181,0 1.100,7 1.000,9 1.057,0 1.131,4 1.027,0 1.103,3 1.055,6 1.073,1 1.189,1 1.227,7 1.094,8 950,0 1.111,1 1.131,8 1.141,3 1.177,8 976,9 1.111,6 1.041,2 108,0 210,0 276,4 114,1 226,9 213,4 218,8 219,0 268,6 215,1 208,1 212,1 294,5 237,9 295,4 106,0 221,0 235,8 437,4 431,5 434,8 432,7 428,8 432,0 434,9 436,4 491,6 437,7 424,6 438,4 438,3 439,6 439,0 436,3 431,5 436,1 2,5 2,2 2,5 2,6 1,9 2,0 2,6 2,4 3,1 2,3 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,5 2,6 2,7 1,9 2,1 9,7 31,2 18,0 24,7 27,4 24,6 13,7 31,2 15,1 7,4 8,3 8,3 7,1 25,7 21,0 25,4 30,8 28,0 434,8 373,4 391,1 444,4 411,2 376,1 393,8 492,0 440,2 424,5 299,4 441,6 380,3 426,2 410,9 397,3 420,1 331,1 8,3 8,4 8,1 8,4 6,8 7,3 9,2 7,1 8,5 7,8 7,7 8,2 9,1 9,4 9,0 9,2 6,4 8,2 0,2 0,3 0,5 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,1 1,2 0,5 0,0 -0,2 0,2 -0,1 0,0 0,0 -0,1 -0,1 0,0 61,2 56,2 60,1 83,0 129,4 64,1 59,5 74,7 160,8 52,3 95,0 61,4 53,5 67,2 66,9 60,4 69,4 59,5 7,3 5,3 5,3 9,4 13,5 3,3 7,3 31,1 83,5 2,0 2,7 2,8 10,9 3,4 7,3 5,1 4,2 5,1 0,8 1,0 0,3 1,1 1,0 0,5 1,2 1,9 1,9 0,9 0,4 1,1 1,0 1,1 0,8 0,3 0,2 0,4 0,9 0,6 0,8 2,0 0,9 0,9 0,5 100,9 1,5 1,5 0,0 0,7 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,0 50,3 12,0 26,3 49,5 61,2 38,1 55,8 46,7 63,7 231,8 54,1 70,0 99,8 58,9 56,0 48,2 54,3 35,1 63,9 1.322,7 1.464,5 1.335,4 1.302,9 1.272,4 1.372,8 1.373,5 1.419,6 1.793,9 1.418,7 1.408,1 1.363,7 1.359,2 1.476,6 1.322,7 1.308,2 1.321,1 1.324,3 613,9 594,4 548,9 529,5 529,0 578,4 557,2 543,8 670,0 638,7 636,7 622,9 629,0 585,2 528,1 535,5 540,3 569,9 313,9 377,2 321,5 319,7 324,8 319,0 329,2 322,8 328,0 325,9 315,9 324,8 312,1 377,6 320,2 321,4 320,5 312,8 193,4 211,9 219,6 203,2 200,5 183,9 203,2 216,9 323,0 202,2 183,8 199,4 213,1 203,3 199,7 207,5 215,6 180,8 104,0 1,5 4,6 4,0 0,9 71,5 21,9 1,5 5,8 88,6 134,5 88,2 101,3 1,5 5,3 3,9 2,3 71,7 2,7 3,9 3,3 2,5 2,8 4,0 2,9 2,7 13,2 22,0 2,5 10,5 2,5 2,8 2,9 2,6 1,9 4,5 612,0 753,2 629,9 608,7 590,1 612,0 624,5 633,0 716,1 673,7 628,0 640,2 635,7 781,6 658,7 620,4 619,6 613,5 39,7 42,2 40,9 39,3 27,6 36,8 46,4 50,2 98,1 97,5 46,4 27,4 40,9 36,8 49,9 22,7 22,8 23,5 510,2 647,4 513,6 509,1 501,2 504,4 516,8 519,5 526,6 521,5 532,4 552,1 534,6 673,0 537,8 530,1 529,8 522,6 60,2 60,3 68,0 59,0 59,4 64,9 58,2 59,0 89,1 51,1 48,7 58,8 54,9 61,8 69,3 61,5 65,9 60,2 1,9 3,2 7,5 1,4 1,9 5,8 3,1 4,2 2,3 3,6 0,4 1,9 5,4 9,9 1,7 6,2 1,1 7,2 58,6 67,2 86,7 108,2 99,7 113,2 116,1 161,6 306,6 58,8 50,7 59,4 54,2 62,0 80,3 78,5 105,6 82,5 18,6 19,5 52,0 25,6 22,1 34,3 40,7 68,1 68,2 12,5 11,5 18,4 20,4 20,9 31,8 41,4 29,1 26,3 19,6 30,2 17,9 30,8 31,6 34,9 35,1 13,1 33,0 35,1 81,3 22,9 19,9 26,9 23,8 32,3 26,5 32,1 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HDR - Human Development Report, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SMA - Securities Market Agency, SMARS - Surveying and mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, UN - United Nations. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror November 2011, No. 11. Vol. XVII