Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 3 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Prices in the agro-food supply chain). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Boxes Box 1: Exports of goods according to the SITC.............................................................................................................8 Box 2: Real estate market in Slovenia...........................................................................................................................11 Box 3: Main aggregates of the general government sector (ESA 95).....................................................................22 Box 4: Government bond issuance - March 2011......................................................................................................23 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................25 Prices in the agro-food supply chain............................................................................................................................27 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The ECB and OECD upgraded slightly their forecasts for economic trends in the euro area. The ECB projects GDP in the euro area to increase between 1.3% and 2.1% this year and 0.8% and 2.6% next year. The improvement is largely due to a renewed acceleration in world trade growth at the end of last year, and domestic demand, which is also expected to pick up gradually. In its interim economic assessment, the OECD expects faster growth particularly for the beginning of the year. High commodity prices represent the greatest downside risk, with dollar prices of oil having already increased by a quarter in the first three months of this year and food prices by nearly one tenth in the first two months. Slovenia's economy continued to recover slowly at the beginning of this year, as expected. The values of short-term indicators increased in January, except for manufacturing, but they still lag behind the average 2008 level. After their growth eased at the end of last year, merchandise exports and imports increased noticeably in January (in nominal terms). The volume of industrial production in manufacturing, in contrast, declined in January after December's growth and remained around 10% lower than in 2008 as a whole. Business trend data otherwise indicate growth in the coming months, particularly in export-oriented industries. After the interruption at the end of last year, real turnover in retail trade resumed its growth from the autumn months, while the level of nominal turnover in wholesale remains low due to the declines in the second half of 2010, despite its sizeable growth in January. The value of construction works strengthened in January, chiefly due to growth in residential construction, but remains extremely low, lagging the most behind the average 2008 level among the short-term indicators. The number of people in formal employment excluding self-employed farmers declined in January; the number of registered unemployed people dropped in March for seasonal reasons. The total number of formally employed people fell by nearly 3,000. It declined in the majority of larger activities, except agriculture and certain market services. The number of registered unemployed people amounted to 113,948 at the end of March. After accelerating at the end of last year, growth in the number of unemployed persons older than 50 came to a halt early this year. The average gross wage declined in January in both sectors; the minimum wage level was adjusted for last year's actual y-o-y inflation. As a result of the dynamics of extraordinary year-end payments and fewer working days, the average gross wage declined by 3.4% in the private and 0.4% in the public sector despite the partial adjustment of basic wages for anticipated inflation. Y-o-y growth in the total gross wage (3.3%) remained similar to that at the end of last year and was still a result of a higher wage in the private sector (4.5%), given that wage growth in the public sector is maintained at a similar level as in the previous year. In January, the minimum wage was adjusted for last year's actual inflation and totals EUR 748.10 for full-time work. It is received by 47,738 employees, approximately 4,500 more than when the new act entered into force last year. Consumer prices increased by 1.6% in March, which was to a great extent due to the correction of the contribution for national radio and TV programmes. Amid the usual seasonal movements (clothing and footwear), some energy prices also increased while food prices remained unchanged after rising in January and February. The return of the radio and TV contribution to its January level contributed 0.5 p.p. to inflation in March. Under the impact of higher oil and commodity prices, industrial producer prices have seen stronger growth both in Slovenia and in the entire euro area in recent months, which is gradually spilling over into consumer price growth. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area was thus up to 2.6% in March (HICP). Lending activity remained low in February and in the first two months of 2011 non-banking sectors net repaid loans taken out with domestic banks. February's decline in loans was a result of net repayments of corporate and NFI loans and very modest household and government borrowing. In the first two months as a whole, enterprises and NFIs otherwise recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 67.9 m, more than 60% less than in the same period of last year. Households repaid loans in a net amount of EUR 49.5 m (a net inflow in the same period of last year). After the strong creation of impairments and provisions last year, banks increased impairments and provisions by EUR 128.6 m in the first two months of this year, which is by a factor of 1.3 more than in the comparable period last year. According to SORS data, the general government deficit (ESA-95) amounted to EUR 1,987 m or 5.5% of GDP last year, 0.5 p.p. of GDP less than in 2009. Revenue increased by 2.8% in nominal terms and by 0.4 p.p. as a share of GDP, to 43.5%. Two thirds of revenue growth came from transferred (funds from the EU budget) and other revenues, and only one third from tax revenues. Among the latter, it was only revenue from social security contributions and taxes on production and imports that increased, while current taxes on income and property shrank. General government expenditure increased less (1.8%) than a year before, but remained unchanged as a share of GDP (49.0% of GDP). Capital transfers and gross fixed capital formation contracted substantially last year, but besides from social benefits in cash and kind and subsidies, total growth in expenditure also started to come from interest payments as a result of government borrowing. General government borrowing increased by a further EUR 3 bn due to two bond issues in January and March this year, and by a total of EUR 9.5 bn since the beginning of2009. Amid the tightening situation on the market of government bonds and with growing debt, the costs of the latest bond issues of the same maturity are higher than in 2009, as expected. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment In March, the ECB and OECD revised their forecasts for economic trends slightly upward. The ECB projects GDP to increase between 1.3% and 2.1% in real terms in the euro area in 2011 (between 0.7% and 2.1% in December), and between 0.8% and 2.8% in 2012 (between 0.6% and 2.8% in December). The improvement largely reflects better prospects for the global economy due to renewed acceleration in world trade growth at the end of last year. Domestic demand is also set to pick up this year and will gradually become the main driver of the recovery. The OECD's interim economic assessment expects economic growth to accelerate at the beginning of this year. Similar developments are also indicated by the values of short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area. These increased at the beginning of this year, after a slowdown (or decline) in December, which was chiefly related to the bad weather, which affected particularly construction activity. Sentiment indicators of various institutions reflect relatively optimistic expectations regarding new orders and production in the next months. With the risk to growth associated with rising commodity price rises, the ECB raised its forecast for this year's average inflation to the level between 2.0% and 2.6% (in December, between 1.3% and 2.1%). Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area -Industrial production In manufacturing -New orders in manufacturing ---------Value of construction put in place ---------Turnover in trade —•— Sentiment indicator, EMU Figure 2: Interest rates Source: Eurostat; calculations by IM AD. Interbank interest rates rose again in March. The value of the three-month EURIBOR increased by 9 basis points to 1.18% (y-o-y by 53 b.p.), while the value of the three-month USD LIBOR remained at a similar level as in February, 0.31%. The ECB forecast assumes a further increase in the short-term interest rates: the three-month EURIBOR is expected to average 1.5% in 2011 and 2.4% in 2012. In April, the ECB raised the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 25 basis points to 1.25% while other main central banks (Fed, BoE) left their key interest rates unchanged. I ECB key Interest rate -3-month EURIBOR -Assumption for 3-month EURIBOR (ECB March 11) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 ž? 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 !E 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: ECB, www.euribor.org. The value of the euro appreciated against most of the main global currencies in March. The average exchange rate of the euro appreciated by 2.6% against the US dollar in March (to USD 1.40 to EUR 1). Y-o-y, the euro was up 3.2% relative to the US dollar; however, it had fluctuated greatly in 2010 and at the beginning of 2011. In March, the euro also gained value against the British pound sterling (by 2.9% to 0.87) and the Japanese yen (by 1.5% to JPY 114.40 to EUR 1), but depreciated against the Swiss franc (by 0.8% to CHF 1.29 to EUR 1). Commodity prices continued to grow in the first months of this year. The average monthly prices of oil in euros exceeded EUR 80 a barrel in March and approached their 2008 peaks. The average monthly price of Brent crude rose by 10.5% to USD 114.65 a barrel in March (in euros, by 7.2% to EUR 82.1 a barrel). Oil prices increased rapidly Figure 3: IMF commodity price index (in USD) a 60 40 20 Source: IMF. for the third month in succession: expressed in USD, they were 25.4% higher than in December 2010, expressed in EUR, 18.0% higher. Dollar prices of non-energy commodities continued to rise in February, according to IMF data, particularly the prices of metals and food, which remained nearly 40% higher y-o-y. Economic activity in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity show that Slovenia's economy continued to recover slowly at the beginning of this year, as expected. According to seasonally adjusted data, the values of short-term indicators increased in January, except for production volume in manufacturing, but they still lag behind the 2008 average. After their growth eased at the end of last year, merchandise exports and imports increased noticeably in January (in nominal terms). The volume of industrial production in manufacturing, in contrast, declined in January after strong December's growth and remains around 10% below the 2008 average, but data on business trends indicate further growth in the next months, particularly in export-oriented industries. After the interruption at the end of last year, real turnover in retail trade resumed its autumn growth, while nominal turnover in wholesale remained low due to declines in the latter half of 2010, despite the sizeable growth in January. Box 1: Exports of goods according to the SITC In the last quarter of 2010, most product groups recorded slower nominal growth in exports (or a decline). According to seasonally adjusted data on merchandise exports by SITC sections,1 which are available by the end of 2010, only growth in exports of machinery and transport equipment (excluding road vehicles) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (within which, furniture, scientific and controlling instruments and articles of clothing account for the largest share) accelerated in the last quarter of 2010. Exports of miscellaneous manufactured articles otherwise started to recover the latest of all seven groups included in the analysis, only in the second quarter of last year. Road vehicle exports, which had been boosted by incentives for the purchase of new cars in Slovenia's trading partners over the last two years and therefore started to recover fastest,2 declined last year (except in the third quarter) amid a gradual withdrawal of incentives. Despite the slowdown, growth in exports of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and manufactures of metals remained relatively high in the last quarter of 2010, which is, in our estimate, also related to strong growth in metal prices on international markets. Exports of chemicals, where medical and pharmaceutical products account for the largest share, fell in the last quarter of 2010 after increasing in the previous two. Exports of chemicals and primary commodities were the only groups to exceed the average 2008 level of exports at the end of the year. The largest lag was recorded for road vehicle exports, given the relatively steep decline in the last quarter of 2010. Figure 4: Exports of goods according to the SITC - Machinery and equipment excluding road vehicles • Road vehicles ---Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. -Metals - Misc. manuf. art. and trans. - Manufactures classified by material excluding metals Primary commodities a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 Data are classified in seven sections: (0-4) primary commodities, (5) chemicals and related products, (67, 68 in 69) iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, manufactures of metals, n.e.s., (6-67, 68, 69) manufactures classified by material excluding iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and manufactures of metal, (78) road vehicles, (7-78) machinery and transport equipment excluding road vehicles, (8 in 9) miscellaneous manufactured articles and commodities and transactions. 2 After the adoption of incentives in Slovenia's trading partners, road vehicle exports increased by 15.5% as early as in the second quarter of 2009 (seasonally adjusted) and continued to grow in the second half of the year. Road vehicle exports thus played a significant role in preventing an even larger decline in total merchandise exports in 2009. For more on this, see Slovenian Economic Mirror, December 2010 (Box 2). The value of construction put in place strengthened in January, chiefly on the back of growing residential construction, but remained extremely low, lagging the most behind the 2008 average among the short-term indicators. Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Merchandise exports (nom.) - Industrial production in manufacturing -Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade Turnover in wholesale (nom.) - Turnover in hotels and restaurants (nom.) h 1 ^ _______ __________-- .A 120 Ei 115 üi 110 105 100 "D 95 "D t^ 90 85 "D J^ 80 75 SŽ 70 Si 65 60 55 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. After falling in December, the value of merchandise trade1 increased in January. Following the expected moderation at the end of last year, the nominal value of merchandise trade, which has been strengthening steadily since the second quarter of 2009, rose substantially in January. Seasonally adjusted, exports were 3.6% and imports 2.8% higher. Both increased approximately one quarter relative to the same month of 2010. Figure 6: Merchandise trade -Merchandise exports -Merchandise imports 1,200 According to the available data, imports of all end-use product groups continued to grow in the last quarter of last year. Y-o-y growth in imports of investment goods was modest and entirely the result of higher imports of machinery and equipment, while imports of transport equipment dropped significantly y-o-y. Y-o-y growth in imports of intermediate goods increased as a result of continued strong growth in production volume in manufacturing and higher prices of energy and other primary commodities. Imports of consumer goods also recorded stronger growth, due to increased imports of all sub-groups except passenger cars. Figure 7: Imports by end-use product - Imports of interm. goods ■ Imports of consumer goods - Imports of inv. goods a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In January, exports of services declined, while imports increased. After several months of growth, exports of services declined in January (seasonally adjusted by 4.3%). They were 8.0% higher y-o-y, largely as a result of Figure 8: Trade in services -Exports of services -Imports of services Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 1 According to the external trade statistics. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. road transport, miscellaneous professional, business and technical, and communication services. Imports of services rose in January (seasonally adjusted by 3.4%) and were up 9.9% compared with January 2010. The increase was mainly underpinned by imports of licences, patents and copyrights, and communication and financial services. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2009 2010 I 11/ XII 10 I 11/ I 10 Exports1 -18.4 11.1 -2.0 21.6 -goods -19.4 13.7 2.8 24.9 -services -14.7 1.4 -19.8 8.0 Imports1 -23.6 13.0 -8.4 25.1 -goods -25.7 14.8 -4.8 27.7 -services -10.2 3.7 -27.1 9.9 Industrial production -17.4 6.72 -3.83 12.73 -manufacturing -18.7 7.02 -2.53 13.73 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 -16.92 3.83 -17.13 Real turnover in retail trade -10.5 -0.22 3.93 3.43 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants -7.8 2.72 1.43 6.23 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Amid a gradual strengthening in the previous year, production volume in manufacturing increased by 13.7% y-o-y in January (working-day adjusted). After recording strong growth in December, production volume in manufacturing declined in January (-2.5%, seasonally adjusted). Last year's January levels were otherwise exceeded the most (by more than one fifth) in the more export-oriented leather, metal, chemical and Figure 9: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing by sub-industries 35 30 25 20 1=-,o o 5 0 -5 2010/2009 ♦ Jan.11/ Jan.10 ^ Predominantly ♦ ♦ Predominantly domestic market ♦ ♦ !Z 1= C d TD "ö C (Z C TD C TD .!Z CT cu 1= E T3 O O 'c J^ (L JZ C !S —J S TD C != J= cp TD C Sf (5 TD TD C T3 C ro -Q C IJ JE T3 C (Ü d ro -Ö C ro ^ (D TD !E -Q jD O "0 a O O C C ro -C u a S Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. pharmaceutical industries, and the manufacture of other machinery and equipment. With the exception of the leather industry, the strong growth in these industries reflected low activity at the beginning of last year. Growth in the volume of production of non-metal mineral products also resulted from the base effect. Growth in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment and in the manufacture of transport vehicles, which recovered fastest and were the first to exceed the pre-crisis levels, remained similar to the 2010 average. On the other hand, growth remained modest in most low-tech industries predominantly oriented to the domestic market. With the exception of the wood-processing industry, these industries also recorded below-average growth in January. Data on business trends indicate more favourable prospects for the coming months, particularly in export-oriented industries. The value of the indicator of expected exports increased once again in March, but the value of the indicator of total demand was somewhat lower than in February, which is due to modest domestic demand, by our estimate. Lower expectations of enterprises regarding total demand in the next months contributed to poorer prospects for production and employment. The enterprises surveyed are less pessimistic regarding employment this year and did not expect to cut jobs in the next three months in March.2 The share of enterprises that expect selling price growth has also increased since the end of last year, which could be a result of commodity price growth and an attempt to pass the higher purchase costs on to selling prices. Figure 10: Indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing -Total demand -Production -----Exports -Prices -----Employment Source: SORS. 2 According to the most recent available data, in January, the y-o-y decline in employment was similar to that in the preceding month (3.2%) and mainly came from job losses in the textile, furniture and metal industries and the manufacture of ICT equipment (4,675 fewer workers, in total, or 76.6% of all who had lost jobs). Construction activity increased in January, as was the case in December, but it remains low. The value of construction put in place rose by 3.8% in January (seasonally adjusted), but was still 17.1% lower than in January last year. As in December, activity increased most notably in residential construction.3 It had more than doubled in two months and thus exceeded the level seen in the same month of last year. In our view, this strengthening is related to last year's increase (by 7.5%) in the total floor area for residential buildings planned by building permits issued to legal entities. To carry out their projects, the majority of these investors hire larger companies, whose construction activity is regularly monitored by statistical surveys. Civil-engineering activity also increased (3.0%) and was 13.0% lower y-o-y. Activity in non-residential construction continues to decline, having dropped by as much as 30.2% in the last 12 months, which is related to the construction of a major sports complex at the beginning of last year. Figure 11: Value of construction put in place - Construction - total - Non-residential buildings ----Residential buildings ----Civil engineering works J? ^ J? Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. According to data on business trends, the main limiting factor in construction is still insufficient demand. In March, insufficient demand was cited as a limiting factor by 59% of enterprises (employing 66% of workers). Since the beginning of the crisis at the end of 2008, the main limiting factors have been insufficient demand and strong competition, instead of the shortage of skilled labour and strong competition as in the period before the crisis. After the onset of the crisis, "high cost of capital" and "access to bank credit" have become increasingly important limiting factors in construction; the share of enterprises limited by these factors also remained high in 2010, though lower than in 2009, when it was largest. 3 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, by our estimates. Box 2: Real estate market in Slovenia The number of transactions in second-hand and particularly new flats increased at the end of 2010, but prices remained practically unchanged. According to data on the number of reported market transactions that is monitored by SMARS (Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia) and mainly pertains to second-hand flats, transactions increased by 8.5%^ in the last quarter of 2010, after a significant decline in the third, while the number of transactions in new flats reported by SORS increased significantly once again (by 24.2%).2 After increasing notably in the second half of 2009, transactions in second-hand and new flats remained at a similar level y-o-y. Prices of flats did not change much in the last quarter of 2010 and were similar to those at the beginning of 2007. Price fluctuations are minimal in all three analysed series which pertain to flats, while among other real-estate categories, only prices of offices stand out with a more pronounced drop. Transactions in second-hand and new flats increased by around 30% in 2010, after falling slightly more than 15% in 2009. Last year, prices of second-hand flats rose by just over 3%, while they declined slightly more than 8% in 2009; prices of new flats remained at approximately the same level after an almost 15% drop in 2009. Figure 12: Movements of prices of second-hand and new flats and transactions in flats -Prices-SORS, second-hand dwellings ---------Prices-SORS, new dwellings -Prices-SMARS ----Registered transactions-SMARS ----Transactions-SORS, new dwellings 50 40 30 ........!.........I \.....^.........^.......... A ........^.........i ' .................^.........^........^/t........i.........t........i.............. ..................... - . ■ . i A ><><> I . - . a a a a Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD. 1 In every release, SMARS completes data for the previous quarters of the current year; the share of additionally reported or processed transactions tends to range between 5% and 10%. In the third quarter of 2010, deviations were larger, as reported transactions declined by 27.7% after the first release and by 13.6% after the last. 2 Given the smallness of the market, data otherwise tend to be very sensitive to one-off impacts such as a sale of a major multi-dwelling building in a given quarter. Figure 13: Limiting factors in construction according to data on business trends -insufficient demand -Competition in own sector -----High cost of capital ------ Access to bank credits -----Shortage of skilled labour 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. picked up in both the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products and the sale of non-food products, but monthly changes are small and both categories have recorded low and approximately unchanged turnover levels since the middle of 2009. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels is more volatile. It started increasing in late 2009 with renewed growth in the volume of road freight transport. Turnover had dropped in the third quarter of last year but increased once again in the last three months of 2009 and in January. Nominal turnover growth in accommodation and food services activities, which had started at the end of 2009, continued in January. After declining since the end of 2008 and in 2009, turnover in accommodation and food service activities increased in 2010, but it still lags behind the 2008 level. January's turnover growth (1.4%, seasonally adjusted) was related to a higher number of foreign tourists visiting Slovenia, according to our estimate. The number of their overnight stays was 8.6% higher y-o-y in January and turnover in accommodation and food service activities increased by 6.2% in nominal terms. After December's decline, turnover increased substantially in all three trade sectors in January (seasonally adjusted). Growth in turnover in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles (January 5.7%), which had started in the middle of 2009, was largely underpinned by higher sales of new passenger cars, which also continued in February.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade otherwise strengthened more notably in January (5.0%), but remained relatively low due to declines in the second half of last year. Turnover in retail trade resumed its autumn growth after December's interruption. Turnover Figure 14: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade -----Automotive fuel -----Wholesale, retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcyc. -Wholesale o, 105 ii 100 -c 95 90 85 80 65 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 4 The total number of new passenger car registrations was 6.5% higher y-o-y in January and 10.2% higher in February (of which, the registrations by legal persons increased by 30%, while the sales to natural persons dropped by around one tenth relative to the preceding year). Figure 15: Nominal turnover in accommodation and food service activities 104 H 96 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Growth in consumption is still modest, as expected. The January net wage bill was 0.3% lower y-o-y, while the y-o-y decline in February was larger (-3.2%). Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels was nevertheless 3.4% higher y-o-y in January, the most since November 2008, and is also expected to increase y-o-y in February, judging from the preliminary figures. After increasing y-o-y in the first three months of last year, the number of new car registrations by natural persons dropped by more than one tenth in the first three months of this year. 80 98 94 92 90 75 70 Figure 16: Household consumption indicators ^^m Turnover in retail trade (left axis) ^^m No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) -----Consumer confdence indicator, original value (right axis) Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. Amid lower consumption for major durables,5 households made net repayments of consumer loans in the amount of EUR 30 m in the first two months. The seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator declined slightly in March, largely as a result of a lower value of the confidence indicator in retail trade. The confidence indicators in manufacturing and construction also fell somewhat, as did the value of the consumer confidence indicator, while the value of the confidence indicator in services increased. Figure 17: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Service act. 40 30 IS 20 10 0 Is -10 J -30 -40 -60 -70 Source: SORS. 5 Consumption for major durables is estimated based on the dynamics of turnover in the sale of furniture and construction materials in specialised stores and in the sale of household appliances and audio/video recordings in specialised stores. Labour market In January, the number of people in formal employment excluding self-employed farmers remained at the same level as in the preceding month.6 The number of formally employed people without farmers otherwise dropped by 2,930 in January; seasonally adjusted, it remained at the same level as in the preceding month. Y-o-y, this number dropped by 21,485 (-2.7%). In comparison with December, the number of formally employed people declined in most of the larger activities, except in agriculture and certain market services. The number of vacancies and persons hired fell in February, but is nevertheless still higher that in the same period of the preceding year. Figure 18: Persons in formal employment, including and excluding farmers -Persons in formal employment -Persons in formal employment excluding farmers Iž |S 840 Source: SORS; calculati ons by I MAD. The registered unemployment rate increased by 0.5 p.p. to 12.3% in January. In January, the number of registered unemployed persons increased by 1.3%, according to seasonally adjusted data. This high inflow into unemployment was again a result of a higher number of persons who had lost jobs largely for seasonal reasons (the expiry of fixed-term employment contracts); the outflow from the unemployment register was smaller than in December. Once again, the unemployment rate for men increased more (by 0.6 p.p. to 12.0%) than that for women (by 0.3 p.p. to 12.7%). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been otherwise increasing without interruption since June 2008. The increase in the number of persons in registered unemployment continued in February. Altogether 115,608 persons were unemployed at the end of February, 476 6 SORS estimates the number of self-employed farmers based on data from the Labour Force Survey for the previous quarter. The number of self-employed farmers is thus estimated to have increased by 4,821 (17.2%) from December 2010 to January 2011. As this is a statistical estimate rather than an actual increase, we are going to analyse the movement of people in formal employment excluding farmers from now on. Table 2: Persons in employment by activity Number in '000 Change in number 2010 I 10 XII 10 I 11 2010/ 2009 I 11/ XII 10 I 11/ I 10 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 33.4 31.9 33.1 38.0 -4,437 4,840 6,056 -4,437 B Mining and quarrying 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 -308 -10 -124 -308 C Manufacturing 188.6 190.0 184.1 183.9 -11,253 -169 -6,081 -11,253 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.8 54 -7 -191 54 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.1 138 14 55 138 F Constrution 78.5 81.5 72.1 70.7 -8,231 -1,411 -10,808 -8,231 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 111.8 112.8 109.4 109.4 -2,842 -16 -3,404 -2,842 H Transportation and storage 47.9 48.5 46.9 46.9 -1,874 -60 -1,660 -1,874 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.2 33.6 32.5 32.3 -806 -173 -1,315 -806 J Information and communication 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.6 59 70 191 59 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.1 24.2 24.2 -208 67 89 -208 L Real estate activities 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 -34 -92 -193 -34 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 46.8 45.9 47.0 47.0 2,037 50 1,117 2,037 N Administrative and support service activities 26.4 25.9 26.1 26.0 840 -169 33 840 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 52.0 51.6 51.5 51.2 502 -233 -324 502 P Education 63.5 63.0 64.3 64.3 1,833 -36 1,254 1,833 Q Human health and social work activities 53.2 52.3 53.3 53.0 1,080 -311 692 1,080 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.8 125 -202 -346 125 S Other service activities 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.1 185 -265 -265 185 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 6 4 9 6 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. more (0.8%, seasonally adjusted) than in January and 15,824 more (15.9%) than in the same period last year. A total of 7,247 persons registered anew, which is, for seasonal reasons, much less than a month earlier, and the number of persons who had lost work (5,991) was half lower than in January. The number of people deleted from the unemployment register (6,771) and the number of those who had found work (4,868) also declined, but the latter was still higher than in the same month last Figure 19: Duration of unemployment -Average -----Non-skilled -----Higher education 1200 1100 1000 900 year. Looking at age, the number of unemployed persons older than 50 (which had surged at the end of last year) stopped growing at the beginning of this year, but was nevertheless 10,513 higher y-o-y in February. The average duration of unemployment (564 days) lengthened by 11 days compared with the previous month, but declined y-o-y. Unemployed low-skilled workers are still unemployed longest and women tend to stay Table 3: Labour market indicators Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. in % 2009 2010 I 11/ XII 10 I 11/ I 10 Labour force 0.2 -1.0 0.8 0.0 Persons in formal employment -2.4 -2.7 0.2 -1.8 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.8 -2.6 -0.4 -3.0 Registered unemployed 36.6 16.4 4.6 15.6 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 3.9 -2.5 3.3 - private sector 1.8 5.2 -3.4 4.5 - public sector 6.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 2010 I 10 XII 10 I 11 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 10.7 10.6 11.8 12.3 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,494.88 1,448.12 1,534.04 1,496.35 Private sector (in EUR) 1,408.24 1,348.49 1,458.93 1,409.48 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.46 1,745.45 1,750.67 1,744.30 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Table 4: Wages by activities Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2010 I 2011 2010/2009 I 11/XII 10 I 11/I 10 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,267.00 1,262.29 5.8 -6.6 7.7 5.8 B Mining and quarrying 1,904.97 1,850.68 4.0 -16.1 3.4 4.0 C Manufacturing 1,311.57 1,316.29 9.0 -2.6 5.6 9.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,095.67 1,987.12 3.7 -17.0 -0.2 3.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,444.70 1,384.49 2.2 -6.2 -0.2 2.2 F Constrution 1,211.63 1,200.61 4.4 -4.2 6.1 4.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,325.08 1,328.23 3.7 -2.8 3.8 3.7 H Transportation and storage 1,421.14 1,420.89 2.0 -1.6 2.7 2.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,074.27 1,106.18 4.0 -0.2 5.1 4.0 J Information and communication 2,092.15 2,093.65 2.6 -4.7 2.1 2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2,144.81 2,157.67 1.0 -0.7 5.2 1.0 L Real estate activities 1,477.74 1,457.92 3.0 -6.6 3.0 3.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,765.21 1,740.89 1.6 -5.7 1.0 1.6 N Administrative and support service activities 952.15 964.14 4.1 0.1 5.3 4.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,778.20 1,772.26 -0.6 -0.5 0.5 -0.6 P Education 1,730.26 1,728.87 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 Q Human health and social work activities 1,746.86 1,738.10 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -0.3 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,731.32 1,726.52 0.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 S Other service activities 1,397.40 1,389.73 4.2 -4.9 2.5 4.2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. unemployed longer than men. In March, the number of registered unemployed persons dropped to 113,948, but, excluding the impact of seasonal factors, unemployment increased further (by 0.4%). In January, the average gross wage declined due to seasonal factors in almost all activities (by 2.5% in nominal terms) and its y-o-y growth (3.3%) remained at a similar level to that at the end of 2010. As the result of the dynamics of Figure 20: Gross wage per employee -Total -Private sector -----Public sector 1,800 extraordinary payments at the end of the year and fewer working days, the decline was more pronounced in the private sector (-3.4%). The gross wage in this sector rose modestly (0.3%), seasonally adjusted, which can also be attributed to the adjustment and transition to a higher level of the minimum wage. Y-o-y wage growth (4.5%) remains above the sector's average in industry (5.4%) while it is slower in market-oriented services (3.5%). In the public sector, the gross wage per employee declined by 0.4% in January, compared with the previous month, despite the partial (0.55%) adjustment for inflation7 (according to seasonally adjusted data, it remained at the same level as in the previous month, 0.1%); y-o-y, it remained at a similar level (-0.1%). The minimum wage was adjusted for last year's actual inflation in January.8 The minimum wage now totals EUR 748.10 for full-time work (previously EUR 734.15). The transitional amount, which will be in force until the end of this year, is EUR 698.27 (previously EUR 685.25). According to AJPES, 47,738 persons employed with legal entities received the minimum wage in January (42,905, on average, last year, after the adoption of the Minimum Wage Act). The share of those who received the minimum wage in the highest category (from EUR 699 to 748) climbed to 78.7% from 69.3% last year. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 7 As stipulated in the Act on Intervention Steps, by one quarter of anticipated y-o-y inflation in 2011 in line with IMAD's Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2010 (September 2010). 8 According to the Minimum Wage Act. Prices Consumer prices increased by 1.6 % in March and y-o-y inflation returned to January's level. Amid the usual seasonal price movements (clothing and footwear), prices of certain types of energy were also up in March. The contribution for national radio and TV programmes returned to its January level after declining in February and food prices remained unchanged after January and February rises. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area increased to 2.6% in March, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Figure 21: Inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area (HICP) 8 Figure 22: Industrial producer prices in Slovenia and in the euro area 2 40 20 -10 -30 PPI -total SI PPI -total EMU Food SI Food EMU Metals SI Metals EMU r -i r \ N \ ! ..L...I i \ 7 .....t............ Source: Eurostat. Source: Eurostat. Stronger growth in industrial producer prices is also gradually spilling over into consumer price growth in the euro area. Consumer price growth in the euro area has been exceeding the ECB's target since December last year (2.6% in March). The high inflation rate in the euro area is due to direct (global energy price rises) and indirect factors related to the transfer of higher costs through the supply change into retail prices (processed food), which is reflected in a gradual increase in core inflation in the total euro area. According to some indicators, core inflation is also strengthening gradually in Slovenia. Industrial producer prices are rising steadily in the entire euro area under the impact of commodity and oil price movements. Global commodity and oil price rises, seen since the second half of last year, are increasingly spilling over into the prices in the euro area. Industrial producer prices in the euro area were already up 6.4% y-o-y in February - prices of intermediate goods 8.7% (metals 21.7%), energy 12.8%, investment goods 1.2% and goods for final consumption 2.4% (food products 6.8%). With energy and metal prices already being the main driver of the gradual strengthening of industrial producer price growth in the euro area since May last year, food prices have also started to grow strongly over the last few months. The movements of industrial producer prices of manufactured goods for sale on the domestic market in Slovenia are similar, with the exception of price rises in the manufacture of food products (2.3% in February) and energy (1.3%), which are relatively lower. However, prices of imported food products increased strongly in Slovenia (12.8% y-o-y in January), which was reflected in high rises of fruit and vegetable prices in retail trade. Figure 23: Comparison of real effective exchange rates in Slovenia and its main trading partners in the euro area (deflated by HICP) 106 104 94 - Slovenia - Germany ■ Austria Italy ■ France Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 30 10 0 5 98 96 Table 5: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - the first two months of 2011 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP -0.3 100.0 -0.3 -0.4 100.0 -0.4 Goods -0.7 58.5 -0.4 -0.2 65.9 -0.1 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.7 11.9 0.1 1.6 15.3 0.2 Non-processed food 1.2 7.4 0.1 4.6 7.3 0.3 Non-energy industrial goods -3.2 28.9 -0.9 -3.9 29.0 -1.1 Durables -0.2 9.5 0.0 0.4 10.3 0.0 Non-durables 0.6 8.3 0.0 0.1 8.7 0.0 Semi-durables -8.7 11.2 -1.0 -11.8 10.0 -1.2 Energy 3.9 10.3 0.4 3.1 14.3 0.4 Electricity for households 4.4 2.5 0.1 1.7 2.6 0.0 Natural gas 1.6 1.7 0.0 3.6 1.0 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 7.5 1.0 0.1 9.5 1.6 0.1 Solid fuels 1.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 1.0 0.0 District heating 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.8 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 3.8 4.7 0.2 2.3 7.2 0.2 Services 0.2 41.4 0.1 -1.0 34.1 -0.3 Services - dwellings 0.6 10.1 0.1 -0.2 2.9 0.0 Services - transport 0.6 6.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 Services - communications 0.5 3.2 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care -0.6 14.7 -0.1 -2.8 13.7 -0.4 Services - other services 0.9 7.0 0.1 0.5 8.5 0.0 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -1.0 82.3 -0.8 -1.5 78.4 -1.2 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification In January, price competitiveness continued to improve under the impact of the depreciation of the exchange rate of the euro and a decline in relative prices. The euro appreciated relative to the USD and JPY again, but the nominal effective exchange rate continued to decline as the euro lost value against other currencies of the EU. Amid a concurrent drop in relative consumer prices, the real effective exchange rate also continued to fall. Improvement in price competitiveness is also indicated by the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer prices in manufacturing. At the monthly level, there were no significant differences between the movements in price competitiveness in the euro area countries in January,9 but y-o-y comparisons continue to show that the improvement in Slovenia was less pronounced (measured by the HICP). 9 Price competitiveness improved slightly in most members including Slovenia, or remained at December's level. Balance of payments In The current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of EUR 38.9 m in January (EUR 19.9 m in January last year). The y-o-y increase in the total deficit was largely due to a larger deficit in merchandise trade. The deficit in factor incomes also widened slightly on the back of higher net interest payments to the rest of the world. The surplus in trade in services increased slightly, while the deficit in current transfers narrowed somewhat due to the relatively successful absorption of EU funds. In January, the merchandise trade deficit widened substantially y-o-y, for the first time in three years due to the deficit in trade with non-EU countries, with which Slovenia traditionally has a trade surplus. The surplus in the services balance widened due to greater net exports of transport and, partly, travel services. The deficit in trade in other services continued to increase (a wider deficit in trade in licences, patents and copyrights). The y-o-y increase in the deficit in factor incomes in January was mainly due to higher net interest payments abroad, particularly those on long-term general government securities and, partly, on private sector loans. The Republic Table 6: Balance of payments I-XII 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I 10 Current account 2008.0 2,046.8 -38.9 -19.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 1,533.2 1,593.2 -60.0 -19.6 - Services 321.7 237.7 84.0 81.5 - Income 70.9 132.9 -62.0 -54.4 Current transfers 82.2 83.1 -0.9 -27.4 Capital and financial account 1,408.7 -1,473.5 -64.8 53.7 - Capital account 12.5 -21.8 -9.3 -7.0 - Capital transfers 12.4 -19.0 -6.6 -6.9 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.1 -2.8 -2.7 -0.2 - Financial account 1,396.2 -1,451.7 -55.5 60.7 - Direct investment 2.2 -57.9 -55.6 29.6 - Portfolio investment 1,350.7 -214.8 1,136.0 1,357.0 - Financial derivates 0.0 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 - Other investment 33.3 -1,176.6 -1,143.3 -1,375.1 - Assets 0.0 -1,009.7 -1,009.7 150.1 - Liabilities 33.3 -166.9 -133.6 -1,525.2 - Reserve assets 10.0 0.0 10.0 50.8 Net errors and omissions 103.7 0.0 103.7 -33.8 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. of Slovenia sold bonds in a total amount of EUR 8 bn10 in the period from the beginning of the financial crisis to January so that we expect higher interest payments to the rest of the world this year. Net interest payments of the banking sector are up y-o-y due to tightening financial conditions in international financial markets since November last year. Figure 24: Income from capital ^■From securities From direct investment ^■From loans -Balance of income from capital o c> o Ö it Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Amid high inflows and outflows, net capital and financial flows11 were relatively weak in January (EUR 65.4 m). The general government recorded a large inflow, while the private sector had a large net outflow. The net inflow of the BS was modest. In January, the government issued a 10-year benchmark bond (RS 69) in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn with a 4.375% interest rate. The BS borrowed EUR 139.4 m from the Eurosystem in January to obtain short-term sources for managing bank liquidity. Figure 25: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector ^■Private sector Country ^■Bank of Slovenia -Net financial flow 1500 ■-----■-■-- 500 -500 -1500 0 Another bond was issued in March (EUR 1.5 bn). See Box 4, p. X.23. 1 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. 1000 0 Financial markets Lending activity remained low in February. The volume of domestic bank loans declined by EUR 54.5 m as a result of net repayments of corporate and NFI loans, while household and government borrowing was very modest. Non-banking sectors thus repaid domestic bank loans in a net amount of just over EUR 10 m in the first two months this year, while in the same period of last year the net flow was positive and exceeded EUR 40 m. Inflows of household deposits slowed significantly in February, while government deposits recorded a net outflow of over EUR 450 m. Banks also net repaid foreign loans in January. Figure 26: Net flows and growth in the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households (left axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) ^^■Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) -Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) 30 25 20 15 10 ■! 5 S2 ot 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Lending activity in the euro area as a whole is strengthening, contrary to that in Slovenia. In February, net flows of loans to non-banking sectors totalled EUR 33.5 bn and in the first two months, as much as EUR 47.1 bn, in contrast to a net outflow of EUR 0.1 bn in the same period of last year. A significant shift was recorded in corporate and NFI net borrowing, which climbed to EUR 59.1 bn in the first two months of this year and topped the 2010 level. After net repayments of domestic bank loans in January, Slovenian households recorded fairly modest net borrowing in February. Total net flows amounted to EUR 6.3 m, solely as a result of net borrowing in the form of housing loans, but these loans (at EUR 32.0 m) did not even reach half of the average figure in the last twelve months. Households thus net repaid EUR 49.5 m in loans in the first two months of this year, while in the same period of last year, net inflows were positive (EUR 67.6 m). Enterprises and NFIs repaid domestic bank loans again in February, in a total net amount of EUR 67.1 m. Both enterprises and NFIs net repaid their loans. Following the relatively strong net borrowing in January, total net inflows amounted to EUR 67.9 m in the first two months of the year, which is a decline of more than 60% relative to the same period of last year. In January, enterprises and NFIs continued to borrow abroad. Net flows were fairly modest (EUR 16.0 m), but the maturity structure was balanced. As a result of a substantial decline of interest rates in Slovenia, the gap between domestic interest rates for corporate loans12 and the average interest rate level in the euro area declined to 219 basis points in January. This is the lowest level in the last two years, but nevertheless still quite high. 12 Interest rates for loans over EUR 1 m with a variable or up to one year with a fixed interest rate. Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 10 28. II 11 28. II 11/31. I 11 28. II 11/31. XII 10 28. II 11/28. II 10 Loans total 33,515.91 33,504.99 -0.2 0.0 2.4 Enterprises and NFI 23,035.85 23,103.72 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 Government 1,197.94 1,168.65 0.5 -2.4 28.4 Households 9,282.12 9,232.62 0.1 -0.5 8.9 Consumer credits 2,833.17 2,802.93 -0.5 -1.1 -3.1 Lending for house purchase 4,837.08 4,851.78 0.7 0.3 20.6 Other lending 1,611.87 1,577.91 -0.8 -2.1 0.9 Bank deposits total 14,839.56 14,979.43 0.3 0.9 3.0 Overnight deposits 6,200.38 6,296.80 0.4 1.6 8.7 Short-term deposits 4,473.18 4,428.88 0.1 -1.0 -8.4 Long-term deposits 4,156.65 4,244.38 0.2 2.1 32.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.35 9.37 -5.9 0.2 -98.7 Mutual funds 2,048.36 2,059.44 0.9 0.5 10.6 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 27: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates Loans (left axis) 200 150 100 50 -50 -100 -150 - Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Banks continued to strengthen net repayments of foreign obligations in January. Net outflows amounted to EUR 275.7 m and banks made net repayments of both foreign loans and deposits. Data from balance sheet show that banks managed to obtain foreign sources of finance in February, but these sources remained fairly limited. Figure 28: Net bank borrowing abroad Deposits ■ Short-term ■ Long-term 600 400 200 0 -200 In February, inflows of household deposits in banks eased significantly and the government was again withdrawing deposits, after issuing a new bond in January. Net inflows of household deposits amounted to EUR 38.8 m. Two thirds came from overnight deposits, while inflows of long-term deposits shrank substantially (after rising somewhat in previous months) and were the lowest since May 2009 (EUR 10 m). After the tightening of the financial crisis, household deposits have become an important long-term source of finance to banks, which therefore encouraged a shift from short-term deposits into long-term deposits by higher interest rates. The share of long-term deposits thus climbed from just over one fifth to almost one half in the period from September 2008 to February 2011. Government deposits contracted by EUR 453.5 m in February. The government largely withdrew short-term deposits in a net amount, and, in part, overnight deposits, while long-term deposits remained roughly at the same level as in January. Figure 29: Net inflows of household and government deposits to banks and y-o-y change in stock Taxes on income and profit Social security contributions ^m Domestic taxes on goods and services Other taxes Other revenues Receipts from EU budget •—Consolidated revenues, total 12 2006 2007 2008 Source: MF. 2009 2010 preliminary Source: BS. After the strong creation of impairments and provisions in 2010, their growth has not eased yet at the beginning of this year. In February alone, banks created EUR 92.2 m in additional impairments and provisions, which reached EUR 128.6 m in the first two months of this year, by a factor of 1.3 higher figure than in the same period of last year. 0 Public finance In 2010, the gap between consolidated general government revenue and expenditure remained at nearly the same level as in 2009.'3 In 2010, consolidated general government revenue totalled EUR 14.8 bn, expenditure EUR 16.7 bn and the deficit EUR 1,886 (only EUR 74 m less than a year earlier). According to the preliminary data for individual general government budgets, the general government deficit was EUR 1,730 m in 2010, a similar figure as in the previous year. The health fund and the total balance of local government budgets recorded lower deficits than in 2009; in 2010, the deficit of the former (EUR 36 m) declined by more than one half and the deficit of the latter (EUR 120 m) by EUR 36 m compared with a year earlier. The transfer from the state budget to balance the pension fund amounted to EUR 1,286 m in 2010 (3.9% more than in 2009). Consolidated general government revenue increased by 2.7% last year, after a 6.1% decline in 2009. Tax revenues shrank (-0.8), but non-tax, capital and other revenues and receipts from the EU budget were significantly higher (non-tax, capital and other revenues increased by 41.9% in total, receipts from the EU budget by 21.4%). Taxes and contributions related to spending and wages increased relative to the preceding year, while revenues from income-related taxes (corporate income tax and personal income tax) declined. Domestic taxes on goods and services rose, particularly the value added tax (3.6%), which was chiefly related to the base effect due to lower economic activity in 2009. Revenue from excise duties recorded somewhat weaker growth (1.7%) resulting from the increase in excise duties in 2010 (while the quantity Figure 30: Contribution to growth in consolidated general government revenue in 2005-2010 Taxes on income and profit Social security contributions Domestic taxes on goods and services Other taxes Other revenues Receipts from EU budget —■—Consolidated revenues, total 2006 2007 2008 Source: MF. 2009 2010 preliminary of excise products sold declined14). Social security contributions also increased modestly in 2010 (1.4%), which was, amid a decline in the number of employees, entirely due to a higher wage bill. Among tax revenues, revenues from taxes on income and profit declined the most (-11.2%), particularly revenue from corporate income tax (-37.0%) The personal income tax also shrank (-2.6%), largely due to poor business results in 2009 and final tax assessments, and partly as a result of statutory changes (a lower income tax rate and higher tax relief). The greatest contribution to the increase in consolidated Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-XII 2010 in EUR m XII 10/ XII 09 I-XII 10/ I-XII 09 Revenue - total 14,404.0 40.7 -6.1 14,789.5 20.4 2.7 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 36.6 -7.0 12,848.3 4.4 -0.8 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 7.9 -18.5 2,490.7 -3.4 -11.2 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.6 1.3 5,234.5 2.5 1.4 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.2 -3.0 4,780.6 11.2 2.6 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 724.6 74.2 21.5 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.3 6.0 16,675.9 -1.9 1.9 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.1 9.3 3,914.9 -2.2 0.1 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.1 -0.8 2,510.5 0.7 0.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.0 7.3 6,274.5 3.0 4.2 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 1,305.1 -4.7 0.9 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 388.4 -44.7 -21.6 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.2 2.7 396.8 -18.0 -9.7 13 In 2010, the quantity of sold alcohol and alcohol products declined by 5.7%, the quantity of sold tobacco and tobacco products by 3.7% and the quantity of main mineral oils by 0.7%. 14 The consolidated balance according to the cash flow methodology (GFS) includes revenues and expenditures of state and local government budgets and the pension and health funds. Source: MF. Box 3: Main aggregates of the general government sector (ESA 95) The data on main aggregates of the general government according to the ESA-95 methodology were, in line with the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure, sent to Eurostat with the regular first annual report on government deficit and debt. This methodology is used in all EU Member States to make data internationally comparable. According to SORS data, the general government deficit in 2010 was estimated at EUR 1,987 m or 5.5% of GDP (in 2009,16.0% of GDP). In 2010, the general government deficit was mainly generated at the central level (4.7% of GDP), which accounted for most of the deficit reduction compared with a year earlier (0.3 p.p. of GDP). Local governments contributed 0.4% of GDP to the general government deficit, which is 0.1 p.p. of GDP less than a year earlier. The deficit of social security funds totalled 0.4% of GDP last year, which is the same figure as a year previously. The share of total general government revenue increased by 0.4 p.p. of GDP to 43.5% of GDP; the share of total government expenditure remained at 49.0% of GDP. The fiscal imbalance, which had started to increase in 2008, deepened significantly in 2009 and the general government deficit surged. General government revenue in 2010 is estimated at EUR 15.7 bn. It increased by 2.8% in nominal terms relative to the previous year. As much as two thirds of the 2010 growth came from transferred revenues (funds from the EU budget) and other general government revenues (1.8 p.p.), and only one third from taxes (1.0 p.p.). Besides current changes, tax revenues were still affected by changes in legislation enacted in previous years. Among the main tax categories, revenue from social security contributions increased by 2.0%. Social security contributions followed wage movements and contributed 0.7 p.p. to total revenue growth. Revenue from taxes on production and imports rose by 1.2%, contributing 0.4 p.p; excise duties increased the most, and, slightly less, value added tax. Current taxes on income and property shrank by 0.3% after the final assessments of personal income tax and corporate income tax (due to higher tax reliefs), and reduced total growth by 0.1 p.p. General government expenditure in 2010 is estimated at EUR 17.7 bn. It increased by 1.8% relative to the year before. In addition to social benefits in cash and in kind and subsidies, growth in general government expenditure in 2010 also resulted from expenditure on interest payments, while the contribution of capital transfers and expenditure on gross fixed capital formation in particular declined. Growth in general government expenditure mainly came from expenditure on social benefits in kind and in cash (1.5 p.p.), largely as a result of growing expenditure on unemployment benefits and a higher number of persons eligible for other social transfers. Sizeable contributions to growth also came from expenditure on subsidies (0.6 p.p.), as a result of anti-crisis measures, and interest payments (0.6 p.p.), which are increasing due to higher general government borrowing. Only 0.3 p.p. of total growth came from compensation of employees, which rose by a mere 1.3% in nominal terms due to the freeze on wage reform (postponed payments of the third and fourth quarters of funds for the elimination of disparities between public sector wages) and restrictive wage policy in the public sector (amid 15% growth in the number of employees in the general government). As a result of austerity measures, expenditure on intermediate consumption increased only by 0.8% and contributed 0.1 p.p. to growth. Capital transfers and expenditure on gross capital formation, on the other hand, reduced growth in general government expenditure by 1.1 p.p. Table 9: General government revenue, expenditure and deficit 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 In EUR m Total general government revenue 7,948 9,003 10,149 10,977 11,809 12,582 13,416 14,664 15,797 15,244 15,676 Total general government expenditure 8,636 9,824 10,717 11,649 12,422 13,011 13,838 14,686 16,470 17,353 17,663 Deficit (-) surplus (+) -688 -821 -568 -672 -612 -430 -423 -21 -673 -2,109 -1,987 Central government -600 -768 -494 -620 -570 -642 -427 -42 -449 -1,775 -1,710 Local government 6 -7 -41 -17 -22 -11 -22 -44 -239 -191 -143 Social security funds -94 -47 -33 -35 -19 223 26 65 15 -143 -134 Consolidated government debt 4,886 5,512 6,442 6,856 7,429 7,683 8,204 7,981 8,180 12,449 13,704 In % of GDP Total general government revenue 43.0 43.6 43.9 43.7 43.6 43.8 43.2 42.4 42.3 43.1 43.5 Total general government expenditure 46.7 47.6 46.3 46.4 45.9 45.3 44.6 42.5 44.1 49.0 49.0 Deficit (-) surplus (+) -3.7 -4.0 -2.5 -2.7 -2.3 -1.5 -1.4 -0.1 -1.8 -6.0 -5.5 Central government -3.2 -3.7 -2.1 -2.5 -2.1 -2.2 -1.4 -0.1 -1.2 -5.0 -4.7 Local government 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 Social security funds -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Consolidated government debt 26.4 26.7 27.9 27.3 27.4 26.7 26.4 23.1 21.9 35.2 38.0 Source: SORS. Main aggregates of the general government. 31 March 2011. 1 In addition to the levels of aggregates, the shares of aggregates in GDP were also affected by the shrinkage of GDP in 2009. Box 4: Government bond issuance - March 2011 The Republic of Slovenia issued a 15-year bond (RS70) in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn in March. The issuance took place under tight, but nevertheless relatively more stable conditions in the euro bond market than in January 2010, when the Republic of Slovenia had issued a 10-year bond (RS69). The issue with a coupon of 5,125% per year was priced at mid swap +130 bp. The yield of Slovenian government bonds with the same maturity is now higher than in 2009, but the spreads with respect to the German benchmark bond have remained stable, unlike in a number of other euro area countries. With the new bonds issued this year, Slovenia will cover most of its financial needs in 2011 arising from the deficit, refinancing of debt and net lending operations.1 The issuance of the 10- and 15-year bonds, maturing in 2021 and 2026, has further extended the maturity profile of government debt. Table 10: Overview of issued government bonds Issue date Maturity Amount (EUR bn) Coupon Spread over mid swap Spread over benchmark bond RS70 22 March 2012 15-year 1.5 5.125% +130 + 188.2 RS69 10 January 2011 10-year 1.5 4.375% +125 + 155.6 RS66 09 September 2009 15-year 1.5 4.625% +80 + 73.6 Figure 32: 10-year bond yield spread vis-a-vis bund Figure 33: Repayment of principal ■I..........i........... A il/i......4 I ' I V .1..........;.........:. h i.i........ !E CNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrN Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Source: MF. 1 http://www.mf.gov.si/si/delovna_podrocja/vrednostni_papirji/ program_financiranja_drzavnega_proracuna_rs/. general government revenue (as much as 2.5 p.p., in total) came from non-tax revenues (revenues from entrepreneurial and property income, interest receipts and property income), capital revenues (sales of fixed assets, buildings) and other revenues (payback of the Russian clearing debt) and a further 0.9 p.p. from receipts from the EU budget. Among tax revenues, domestic taxes on goods and services contributed 0.8 p.p. to revenue growth and social security contributions 0.5 p.p., while revenue growth declined by as much as 2.2 p.p. due to taxes on income. Consolidated general government expenditure increased by 1.9% last year, much less than a year earlier (6.0%). Capital transfers were much lower than in 2009 (-21.6). The greatest negative contribution to growth in consolidated general government expenditure came from capital expenditures and capital transfers (-0.6 p.p.), and the greatest positive contributions from expenditure on transfers to individuals and households (1.5 p.p.) and interest payment (0.9 p.p.). Interest payments increased the most last year (45.3%). Expenditure on transfers to individuals and households (excluding pensions) was also much higher than in 2009 (4.9%), particularly expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (22.0%) as a result of the deteriorated situation on the labour market. Expenditure on sickness benefits also surged in 2010 (10.4%). Expenditure on pensions increased 3.7%, with 2.5% growth in the number of beneficiaries. In line with the emergency act, pensions were adjusted by half of the average wage growth in February (1.7%) and November (0.2%). Expenditure on wages, other personnel expenditures and expenditure on goods and services in 2010 were almost at the same level as in 2009, in nominal terms. After increasing substantially in 2009 as a result of anti-crisis measures, subsidies dropped by 2.7% last year. Source: MF 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 Figure 31: Contribution to growth in consolidated general government expenditure in 2005-2010 Wages and contributions mtrn Expenditure on goods and services vwi Interest payments Transfers to individuals and households ^■Subsidies XXW Other expenditures Capital expenditures and capital transfers Payments to the EU budget —■—Consolidated expenditure, total 8 UK (EUR 3 m). As the payments for the first two months of 2011 have already covered more than one quarter of Slovenia's obligations to the EU budget, the following monthly payments will be proportionally lower than the foreseen one twelve. In August, the bulk of receipts came from Structural Funds (EUR 39.2 m), of which the majority from the European Fund for Regional Development (EUR 34.5 m). EUR 24.6 m was received under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies and only EUR 4.3 m from the Cohesion Fund. In the first two months of this year, Slovenia's receipts from the EU budget totalled EUR 124 m (close to 12% of the level envisaged for 2011) and payments to the EU budget EUR 116 m. Slovenia's net budgetary position was therefore slightly positive (EUR 7.6 m) in the first two months. 2008 2009 Source: MF. 2010 preliminary Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was negative in February 2011 (-EUR 11.3 m). Slovenia's receipts from the EU budget totalled EUR 69.9 m and payments EUR 81.2 m, triple the amount of the average monthly payment to the EU budget. Due to the increased expenditure of the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund, the EC can call on the Member States to pay triple the amount of their average monthly payments to the EU budget at the beginning of the year. The EC therefore called for nearly three-times the average monthly contributions from VAT (EUR 12 m), GNI-based resources (EUR 60 m) and corrections to the benefit of the Figure 34: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Internal policies Other Pre-accession EU funds I Funds planned by the state budget for 2011 I Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 I Total funds received in 2011 (January -February) Total funds received in 2010 (January-December) 100 200 300 400 500 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 600 12 10 6 2 0 -2 2006 2007 0 M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Prices in the agro-food supply chain Prices in the whole agro-food supply chain started to rise rapidly in 2010, after surging in 2007and2008 and dropping in 2009. Over the last few years, the extreme volatility of global food commodity prices has been chiefly related to weather conditions affecting harvests and supplies, an increase and structural changes in demand, and greater use of raw materials for biofuel production. Commodities are at the same time potentially profitable investment in international financial markets. In Slovenia, the total growth of final prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages last year was significantly affected by higher prices of these products on international markets. However, in the time of relatively high price rises, inadequate price relationships within individual sectors of the national agro-food supply chain have also become an important issue that needs to be addressed. Agricultural producer prices in Slovenia recorded relatively rapid growth in the second half of 2010. By the end of the year, they reached the level from the beginning of 2009. After dropping close to the 2007 level in 2009, agricultural producer prices increased 2.1%, on average, in 2010. Higher prices were recorded for crop products, as well as for animals and animal products, but prices of the former increased more. Prices rose in six groups out of eight, most notably in cereals (particularly maize for grains), potatoes and vegetables. Price movements in animal production were uneven. Animal prices declined for the second successive year, but prices of animal products increased slightly, after plummeting in the preceding year. Over the last four years, marked by significant volatility of agricultural commodity prices, they recorded 8.1% total growth. Certain crop products enjoyed outstanding price growth also in this period, particularly cereals and fodder plants; however, the latter are intended for further use within the agricultural sector. Prices of food, beverages and tobacco products in the food-processing industry remained pretty much unchanged last year, after dropping in 2009. Prices in the group of food, beverages and tobacco in the food-processing industry for sales on the domestic market remained at a similar level (-0.2%) last year, after declining by 2.6% in 2009. Food prices declined, while prices of beverages increased. Over the last four years, prices of these products increased by 12.8%, in total, i.e. more than prices in the first sector of the agro-food supply chain. Import prices of food, beverages and tobacco products rose by 6.8% last year, after declining in the preceding year. In contrast to prices in the domestic agro-food supply chain, import prices of food increased, while import prices of beverages declined. In December, total import prices of food, beverages and tobacco products grew as much as 11.8% y-o-y, which was the strongest price growth in the whole agro-food supply chain. Price growth in the period of the last four years was also relatively strong (20.0%).15 15 Prices of imported products increased much less in the same period (9.4%). In 2010, final prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages posted one of the lowest growth rates in the last few years, though higher than in the preceding year. Overall, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages in the consumer price index recorded 1.0% average growth last year; December's y-o-y growth was 2.2% (equal to the increase in the average price level in Slovenia). Within food prices, particularly vegetable prices recorded outstanding growth last year, while prices of meat, milk, dairy products and eggs declined. Final prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 20.4% over the last four years, which is the highest figure in the whole agro-food supply chain, with relatively strong price growth recorded for all product groups. Figure 35: Prices by sector of the agro-food supply chain and the CPI together ^HCPI -total -----CPI -food and non-alcoholic bever. -PPI domestic -food,bev.and tobacco -----PPI imports -food, bev. and tobacco - Domestic agric. producer prices Source: SORS; calculations by I MAD. Figure 36: Prices by sector of the agro-food supply chain in Slovenia and in the EU-27 average -SI: HICP -food and non-alcoholic bever. -EU: HICP -food and non-alcoholic bever. ----SI: PPI -food, bev. and tobacco ----EU: PPI -food, bev. and tobacco -------SI: Agricultural producer prices -------EU: Agricultural producer prices Source: Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Table 10: Price growth by sector of the agro-food supply chain Average annual growth rates, in % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10/06* 10/00 Total agricultural products 8.6 1.8 2.8 -2.0 0.4 5.8 8.3 14.5 -14.6 2.1 8.1 28.0 of which: Crop products 6.6 7.4 6.9 -8.9 -1.7 13.9 17.1 16.6 -19.0 3.1 14.0 42.4 - cereals -3.2 4.4 11.1 -10.6 -15.1 11.0 58.8 -6.4 -33.0 39.8 39.2 31.7 - industrial plants 7.0 -4.1 9.5 -0.3 4.7 5.1 108.7 85.4 -53.5 -35.3 16.3 43.4 - fodder plants 38.4 -23.4 87.2 -28.3 -11.0 3.9 62.2 -16.3 -7.2 1.0 27.2 67.6 - vegetables and horticultural products 23.8 1.0 18.2 -24.0 3.4 15.7 3.6 7.8 -4.9 8.0 14.7 54.1 - potatoes -0.9 12.2 40.7 -20.9 -37.6 107.2 9.6 -14.8 -21.5 10.3 -19.2 29.4 - fruit 4.2 19.7 5.4 -12.9 -2.0 11.3 11.0 30.4 -19.9 0.5 16.5 45.6 - wine 5.7 3.1 -0.3 2.0 3.0 11.4 12.7 3.4 -8.1 4.4 11.8 42.1 - olive oil 2.3 -1.1 0.7 -6.5 -9.4 -8.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 0.0 14.7 -9.0 Animals and animal products 9.6 -0.9 0.6 2.1 1.3 1.8 3.2 13.5 -11.7 1.4 5.0 20.8 - animals for slaughter 11.1 -3.9 -0.5 4.8 3.1 2.3 1.5 11.5 -3.6 -0.4 8.5 27.3 - animal products 8.0 2.2 1.7 -0.5 -0.4 1.3 5.0 15.7 -19.7 3.6 1.2 14.0 Food, beverages and tobacco products in PPI** 11.7 8.5 4.0 4.0 1.6 2.3 4.7 10.8 -2.6 -0.2 12.8 53.6 of which: Food 13.1 9.1 3.7 4.3 1.5 2.0 4.9 12.2 -2.8 -0.6 13.7 57.2 Beverages 8.0 7.0 4.9 3.9 1.0 3.3 3.9 4.8 -1.8 1.8 8.9 43.0 Imported food,beverages and tobacco products 3.8 5.0 8.1 -1.0 6.8 20.0 of which: Food 4.9 5.0 8.4 -1.9 9.1 21.8 Beverages -2.5 7.2 4.4 13.9 -11.0 13.1 Food and non-alcoholic beverages in CPI 9.2 7.5 4.6 0.5 -0.8 2.3 7.8 10.1 0.6 1.0 20.4 50.8 of which: Food 9.8 7.5 4.6 0.4 -0.7 2.1 8.1 10.7 0.4 1.0 21.3 52.5 - bread and cereals 13.4 13.4 6.5 2.5 -0.9 2.9 6.1 11.5 1.4 0.2 20.2 72.1 - meat 13.4 4.0 1.8 -0.4 -2.1 1.4 5.5 5.7 1.4 -0.6 12.4 33.4 - fish 10.8 8.7 5.1 3.5 0.9 4.3 4.4 11.0 10.1 1.1 28.9 77.8 - milk, dairy products, eggs 4.5 7.8 1.4 -0.7 -2.0 0.5 11.6 23.5 -1.7 -0.2 35.2 51.0 - oils and fats 2.4 20.3 6.7 -1.6 -1.8 1.3 4.1 34.2 2.4 0.3 43.3 84.7 - fruit, fresh and processed 12.8 0.7 4.3 1.9 3.5 -1.9 13.0 12.0 -5.0 0.5 20.9 48.2 - vegetables, fresh and processed 5.9 6.1 9.5 -4.8 0.2 10.7 17.1 -1.6 -1.2 6.8 21.6 58.1 - sugar and confectionery 5.2 8.7 5.3 5.2 1.2 0.6 2.6 5.4 2.3 2.0 12.8 45.5 - other food products 3.8 6.6 8.4 0.2 -1.3 0.6 3.0 6.7 3.5 3.3 17.5 40.3 Non-alcoholic beverages 3.8 6.6 5.2 1.3 -1.8 3.5 4.9 4.1 2.0 0.8 12.3 34.6 - coffee, tea and cocoa 1.7 3.5 5.5 -0.2 -1.6 3.6 3.9 2.7 1.7 -0.4 8.1 22.0 - mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 4.9 8.1 5 2 -1.9 3.5 5.4 4.7 2.1 1.4 14.4 41.0 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: * 2006 is the year before the surge in retail prices of food; ** on the domestic market. Price rises, which had been relatively significant along the whole agro-food chain in Slovenia in previous years, were less pronounced than in the EU average last year.16 Agricultural producer prices in the EU rose by 5.9%, on average (in Slovenia, by 2.1%), prices of food, beverages and tobacco in the food-processing industry by 1.3% (in Slovenia, by -0.2%); prices of these products in the HICP increased by 1.1% (in Slovenia, 0.9%). December's y-o-y growth of final prices in the EU average (2.8%) was also higher than in Slovenia (2.2%); in the euro area, it 16 The difference in price growth by individual sectors of the agro-food supply chain is also attributable to different structures of indices in Slovenia and in the euro area. was lower (1.8%). Y-o-y growth rates were relatively low particularly in Mediterranean countries (Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Greece), while they were higher in new EU countries (Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania and the Czech Republic). Over a longer time period, price movements along the whole food-chain in Slovenia were fairly similar to those in the EU, but in Slovenia, growth was much stronger than in the EU, especially in the food-processing industry. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages are a sensitive issue, particularly in times of crisis, and are therefore given special attention in government policies. According to European statistical surveys, prices of food and alcoholic beverages in Slovenia were 4% lower than the EU average in 2009 (17% and 11% lower, respectively, than in Austria and Italy, but 22% and 2% higher, respectively, than in Hungary and Croatia), but food and alcoholic beverages account for a larger share of total household expenditure in Slovenia than in the EU (in 2009, 15.0% in Slovenia, 13.1% in the EU average).17 Institutions that forecast agricultural commodity prices predict relatively mild growth of these commodity prices for the next few years, but a greater price volatility, which is largely attributable to growing demand, negative effects of the climate change on agricultural output and increasing dependency on energy. Against the background of these developments, agricultural policies aim to increase transparency and improve relationships between individual sectors of the agro-food supply chain. In Slovenia, a broad range of activities take place within a comprehensive development project aimed at determining the basic characteristics of price relationships and the possibilities of improving vertical co-ordination to develop sustainable and balanced business relationships in the food supply chain. At the same time, in line with good international practices, efforts have been made to reach agreements on the code of ethics, which could also contribute to a better organisation and reduce price transmission along the agro-food supply chain. 17 According to SORS and Eurostat. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Spring forecast 2011 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.2 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 36,061 36,843 38,788 40,602 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,597 18,052 18,967 19,820 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,700 - - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 88 91 88 - - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 35,511 36,067 37,842 39,627 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 35,555 36,069 37,795 39,654 Rate of registered unemployment 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 12.1 12.3 12.3 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.4 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.2 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 7.8 6.9 6.7 6.3 Exports of goods 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 10.2 7.7 7.4 6.6 Exports of services 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 -1.1 3.4 3.3 4.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 6.6 5.1 6.0 5.2 Imports of goods 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 7.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 Imports of services 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 1.1 4.7 6.0 5.9 Current account balance, in EUR million -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -409 -865 -924 -606 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.4 -1.5 Gross external debt, in EUR million 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 40,851 41,9475 As a per cent share relative to GDP 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 113.3 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.362 1.365 1.365 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 As a % of GDP4 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 56.2 56.7 55.8 55.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 As a % of GDP4 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.1 20.1 19.7 19.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 -6.7 2.9 4.5 3.0 As a % of GDP4 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.2 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End January 2011. PRODUCTION 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.5 -17.4 6.7 -7.7 -18.2 -24.6 -18.4 -7.1 -0.3 11.2 8.1 8.0 -17.1 -21.5 -15.9 -29.8 -22.3 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 -2.9 12.6 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 14.1 26.5 18.0 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 -10.2 C Manufacturing 2.6 -18.7 7.0 -8.4 -20.0 -25.9 -19.5 -7.9 0.2 12.2 8.1 7.8 -18.9 -23.8 -17.3 -31.6 -23.6 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.1 -6.6 1.8 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 6.9 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 -4.7 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 -21.0 -17.0 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 Buildings 11.5 -22.5 -14.0 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 Civil engineering 18.9 -19.9 -19.0 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 18.4 -9.2 7.9 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -2.3 -24.2 28.2 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 10.1 -13.0 3.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.3 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 -17.1 Real turnover in retail trade 12.2 -10.6 -0.1 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 -14.9 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.2 -21.7 12.1 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.4 11.8 14.0 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 17.1 -21.4 1.3 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 4.1 5.6 3.2 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 -25.3 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.8 -3.4 -1.5 8.3 -3.5 -4.6 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 2.7 -5.7 -7.0 2.4 -11.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.2 2.8 -4.2 15.2 4.3 1.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 7.7 -1.0 8.9 3.3 -2.8 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -0.5 -8.0 0.7 2.7 -10.6 -8.6 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 -0.7 -12.2 -19.3 1.7 -17.4 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 -7.8 2.7 3.9 -3.9 -8.2 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.1 -1.4 -6.7 -3.7 -6.1 -9.3 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 529.9 449.3 454.5 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values««) Sentiment indicator 3 -22 -9 -15 -31 -28 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -31 -29 -33 -34 -26 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 -23 -1 -27 -35 -27 -19 -13 -7 -1 3 0 -37 -33 -34 -32 -27 - in construction 2 -50 -57 -21 -43 -51 -54 -50 -57 -60 -56 -53 -39 -41 -50 -53 -47 - in services 26 -14 -3 6 -20 -23 -9 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -16 -17 -27 -28 -22 - in retail trade 22 -13 7 8 -17 -17 -9 -7 -6 11 12 12 -14 -16 -20 -16 -18 Consumer confidence indicator -20 -30 -25 -29 -39 -31 -23 -25 -25 -22 -27 -25 -43 -37 -37 -41 -29 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2009 2010 2011 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 -21.6 -20.8 -17.6 -16.8 -19.6 -1.8 4.7 -8.7 -1.2 8.3 9.1 14.3 10.2 6.9 13.5 5.0 5.7 5.2 13.8 15.3 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.7 18.6 39.7 22.5 24.5 -1.0 41.5 -1.1 -22.5 -22.1 -19.4 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.7 -0.7 9.2 10.3 15.1 11.1 7.6 14.4 3.8 5.5 5.7 12.9 16.4 - - -11.2 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.3 8.0 - - -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -17.1 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -17.3 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -13.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 8.9 3.7 9.4 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.9 1.1 3.1 1.3 3.5 0.2 4.5 5.3 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.6 20.1 13.4 20.1 21.8 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.2 8.0 5.7 1.4 4.4 3.9 11.0 - - -2.7 -3.4 0.8 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.7 2.9 8.9 6.8 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.1 - -6.7 -11.7 -3.0 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.1 - -9.2 -7.8 -5.9 -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.7 4.5 2.5 6.6 5.2 4.2 6.2 - - 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 -24 -21 -19 -13 -12 -14 -14 -10 -11 -15 -12 -9 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -7 -6 -22 -23 -20 -14 -16 -12 -11 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 6 1 1 2 -2 -1 4 4 3 -53 -49 -58 -55 -55 -48 -49 -55 -56 -61 -62 -58 -59 -60 -56 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -51 -22 -12 -10 -4 5 -5 -3 5 2 -12 -9 -4 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 -2 4 -18 -16 -6 -6 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 -5 9 10 13 10 14 12 13 10 12 -4 11 -4 -24 -25 -27 -16 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 -26 -26 -24 -26 -26 -28 -26 LABOUR MARKET 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 942.5 944.5 935.5 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 945.9 945.7 946.1 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 879.3 858.2 835.0 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 868.7 866.0 863.2 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 39.7 37.9 33.4 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 37.8 37.8 38.0 In industry, construction 330.4 306.9 287.3 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 317.4 314.7 311.8 Of which: in manufacturing 222.4 199.8 188.6 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 in construction 87.9 86.8 78.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 87.7 87.5 87.8 In services 509.1 513.4 514.3 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 513.6 513.5 513.5 Of which: in public administration 51.0 51.5 52.0 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.0 51.3 51.4 in education, health-services, social work 111.1 113.8 116.7 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 113.2 113.7 114.0 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 789.9 767.4 747.2 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 779.5 776.6 773.3 In enterprises and organisations 717.6 699.4 685.7 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 709.7 707.3 704.3 By those self-employed 72.3 67.9 61.5 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 69.7 69.3 69.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 89.4 90.8 87.8 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 89.3 89.5 90.0 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 63.2 86.4 100.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 77.2 79.7 82.8 Female 33.4 42.4 47.9 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 By age: under 26 9.1 13.3 13.9 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 12.3 12.7 13.2 aged over 50 21.9 26.2 31.4 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 24.1 24.5 25.1 Unskilled 25.4 34.1 37.5 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 31.4 32.2 33.0 For more than 1 year 32.3 31.5 42.8 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 Those receiving benefits 14.4 27.4 30.0 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 22.8 24.5 25.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 6.7 9.1 10.7 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 8.2 8.4 8.8 Male 5.6 8.3 10.1 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 7.3 7.6 7.9 Female 8.1 10.2 11.6 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 9.3 9.5 9.8 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 13.7 -5.2 -12.3 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 -3.4 -5.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.5 17.0 16.8 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 Redundancies 53.0 90.5 83.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 6.9 7.5 8.2 Registered unemployed who found employment 41.7 48.6 57.0 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 2.7 3.6 3.7 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 26.1 28.5 29.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 13.2 -9.6 -6.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.5 -3.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 Retirements2 22.4 24.5 27.7 6.1 5.3 5.2 6.7 7.3 6.7 5.9 6.6 8.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 Others who found employment2 31.5 34.7 27.3 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 11.5 5.2 5.8 2.2 2.9 3.5 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 240.5 161.3 174.6 47.7 40.1 40.3 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 12.2 14.2 12.0 For a fixed term, in % 74.5 78.1 80.7 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 81.1 86.6 75.5 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 74.9 74.4 91.2 92.6 92.1 As % of labour force 8.6 9.2 8.1 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 9.6 9.8 9.7 NEW JOBS 162.7 111.4 104.1 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 8.1 9.3 10.0 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2009 2010 2011 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 -1.3 0.2 -3.2 -1.3 1.1 4.1 -1.0 -8.2 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.7 2.5 3.5 1.5 1.4 5.3 4.5 5.2 0.3 -2.4 3.5 3.7 6.1 2.3 3.1 -0.6 1.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 -2.6 11.9 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 75.1 74.9 74.5 73.9 74.0 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 10 11 12 1 2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 8.3 3.4 3.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.1 -0.2 5.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 B Mining and quarrying 13.4 0.9 4.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 C Manufacturing 7.5 0.8 9.0 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.5 3.8 3.7 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.8 2.0 2.2 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 F Constrution 7.5 1.0 4.4 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.7 1.9 3.7 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 H Transportation and storage 8.4 0.7 2.0 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 I Accommodation and food service activities 8.3 1.6 4.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 J Information and communication 7.3 1.4 2.6 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 K Financial and insurance activities 6.0 -0.7 1.0 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 L Real estate activities 6.0 1.9 3.0 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 8.4 2.1 1.6 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 N Administrative and support service activities 9.6 1.8 4.1 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 12.2 5.9 -0.6 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 P Education 7.0 3.6 0.6 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 12.0 -0.3 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.3 3.9 0.5 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 S Other service activities 8.2 1.3 4.2 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.5 0.4 -1.7 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.8 0.7 -1.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 -1.7 -2.2 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 Real (relative producer prices)2 0.8 2.9 -2.8 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 USD/EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2009 2010 2011 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.9 3.9 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.5 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 1.336 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 4 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 PRICE CONTROL,' y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2009 2010 2011 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.5 5.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.3 7.5 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.3 8.9 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.4 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -61.5 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 3 4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -2,489 -526 -409 -757 -304 64 -235 -51 -107 -78 -64 -160 -75 -137 -92 4 Goods1 -2,650 -699 -974 -743 -156 -29 -228 -286 -135 -204 -174 -461 -48 -37 -71 -67 Exports 20,048 16,167 18,381 4,577 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,203 4,693 4,637 4,847 1,214 1,293 1,427 1,304 Imports 22,698 16,866 19,354 5,320 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,338 4,897 4,811 5,308 1,262 1,330 1,498 1,371 Services 1,493 1,114 1,057 304 239 311 296 269 234 299 261 263 92 60 87 103 Exports 5,043 4,301 4,363 1,219 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 925 1,071 1,260 1,107 307 278 334 344 Imports 3,549 3,187 3,306 915 679 738 977 793 692 772 999 844 215 218 246 241 Income -1,030 -782 -597 -231 -230 -200 -241 -112 -152 -130 -158 -157 -71 -82 -76 -56 Receipts 1,261 665 904 342 131 176 138 220 209 241 222 232 48 42 41 51 Expenditure 2,292 1,447 1,500 573 361 376 378 332 361 371 380 389 119 124 118 107 Current transfers -302 -159 104 -87 -158 -18 -62 79 -53 -43 6 194 -48 -78 -32 24 Receipts 870 957 1,199 238 141 266 176 374 258 215 271 455 35 45 61 116 Expenditure 1,172 1,116 1,095 325 299 283 238 296 312 258 264 261 83 124 93 92 Capital and financial account 2,545 220 567 703 -25 -57 129 173 89 258 204 16 188 -96 -117 15 Capital account -25 -9 6 -26 -4 41 -4 -42 45 2 16 -57 -7 -2 5 -2 Financial account 2,571 230 561 729 -20 -98 133 214 44 256 189 73 196 -95 -121 18 Direct investment 381 -539 500 299 3 -415 -46 -81 -39 63 32 443 148 -14 -132 -100 Domestic abroad -949 -121 -128 -132 104 -260 35 1 -121 25 -25 -8 129 -7 -18 -74 Foreign in Slovenia 1,329 -419 628 431 -100 -155 -81 -82 82 38 57 451 20 -6 -114 -26 Portfolio investment 572 4,625 1,949 1,258 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,106 503 -48 388 410 559 -95 1,005 Financial derivatives 46 -2 -90 6 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -65 -14 12 -10 -13 0 4 Other investment 1,551 -4,021 -1,817 -855 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,063 -195 201 -759 -349 -713 74 -888 Assets -427 -273 740 300 746 -161 -1,053 194 261 -576 576 479 73 603 70 -152 Commercial credits -142 417 -234 554 62 166 -37 227 -228 -209 28 174 149 -26 -62 70 Loans -325 -29 143 -91 40 -91 -23 45 -357 497 17 -14 -185 206 19 48 Currency and deposits 35 -587 736 -155 638 -239 -1,004 18 848 -858 436 311 98 413 127 -269 Other assets 4 -75 94 -8 7 2 12 -96 -2 -6 95 8 11 10 -15 -1 Liabilities 1,978 -3,747 -2,556 -1,156 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,324 381 -375 -1,238 -422 -1,316 4 -736 Commercial credits -73 -459 391 -536 -301 -105 25 -78 94 265 -63 94 -299 -33 30 -48 Loans 1,869 -2,941 -984 -489 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -412 -189 -5 -378 -125 18 -464 -328 Deposits 190 -318 -1,934 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 -909 5 -1,303 441 -361 Other liabilities -7 -29 -28 6 -5 6 -28 -2 72 -54 -1 -46 -3 2 -4 2 International reserves2 21 167 19 21 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 18 -11 -4 86 31 -5 Statistical error -56 305 -158 54 329 -7 106 -122 18 -180 -141 145 -113 234 209 -19 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,241 1,783 1,809 544 442 461 407 473 403 455 442 509 128 152 162 171 Intermediate goods 10,760 8,090 9,941 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,234 2,538 2,540 2,628 644 637 695 646 Consumer goods 6,808 6,144 6,488 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,533 1,666 1,621 1,668 429 491 555 478 Import of investment goods 3,441 2,288 2,272 878 583 551 521 633 449 610 569 644 172 161 249 190 Intermediate goods 13,735 9,823 12,025 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,682 3,035 3,002 3,306 758 803 820 762 Consumer goods 5,870 5,004 5,341 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,262 1,313 1,317 1,449 353 389 453 437 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2009 2010 2011 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 18 42 -84 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -20 -127 40 -44 -96 61 2 -54 -12 -68 -77 -16 -41 -7 45 -50 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -20 -89 -27 -78 -133 7 -31 -96 -47 -141 -137 -183 -63 1,333 1,427 1,401 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,228 1,327 1,648 1,468 1,565 1,660 1,604 1,305 1,728 1,657 1,699 1,491 1,530 1,340 1,382 1,451 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,247 1,416 1,675 1,546 1,698 1,654 1,634 1,401 1,775 1,798 1,836 1,673 1,593 112 96 59 125 111 114 85 70 81 68 85 100 106 93 58 89 114 116 72 75 86 348 357 436 447 389 367 322 373 298 285 342 353 352 366 431 421 408 370 336 401 330 236 261 376 322 278 253 237 303 216 218 258 253 245 273 373 332 293 254 264 326 244 -77 -67 -96 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -54 -54 -44 -48 -44 -39 -51 -52 -55 -51 -54 -52 -63 55 69 51 43 44 45 107 69 67 65 77 75 82 84 75 74 73 75 75 82 71 132 137 146 109 123 108 90 134 121 119 121 123 126 122 126 126 128 126 129 134 134 -11 -31 2 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -27 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 42 143 -1 80 69 80 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 55 82 79 116 88 67 100 123 231 84 90 101 77 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 73 107 78 91 82 91 92 81 88 85 98 -170 104 -66 92 95 -7 85 54 79 -44 132 15 111 124 -36 116 110 -173 79 -63 -1 45 -3 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 3 -63 -9 99 -215 106 -64 91 94 -32 153 61 81 -99 130 19 107 132 -32 89 107 -176 142 -54 -255 -61 -40 27 -34 -17 -89 25 30 -47 -21 2 25 36 52 47 -67 105 253 86 -59 -189 3 26 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -7 -76 -38 -23 23 25 3 5 -33 -26 17 2 -64 -66 -64 -65 3 -18 8 -126 36 36 29 16 25 2 11 49 42 -34 131 236 84 5 263 -118 864 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -446 195 607 -201 98 82 -27 -102 69 182 137 1,136 8 -1 -2 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 1 5 5 -2 20 -24 -663 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,375 569 -257 -500 275 30 7 -44 238 -86 -600 -72 -1,138 -730 721 -656 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 150 64 47 -10 -628 62 711 -197 62 -162 -613 1,254 -1,017 141 -45 -6 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -3 -42 -183 -36 -87 -86 -9 198 -161 -101 -67 341 -207 -62 -77 -58 72 -37 -8 48 5 -55 30 -332 418 17 63 128 4 -115 -36 1 21 -50 -808 838 -592 556 -968 292 -367 93 214 71 562 -399 -545 86 584 -471 324 -11 -542 865 -752 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -14 0 9 73 13 -13 -5 26 -9 751 -745 -7 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,525 505 -304 -490 904 -32 -704 154 176 75 13 -1,326 -121 -32 -25 20 -110 116 88 80 -246 -87 69 112 55 128 83 -31 -184 152 140 62 -107 -37 349 -1,353 12 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -39 -18 -355 -276 328 -241 -38 -20 53 -240 245 -384 -117 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 3 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 10 17 -5 -7 -34 31 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 -115 128 -20 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -34 48 4 -88 80 -172 -126 89 -104 -42 249 -63 104 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 116 120 167 142 155 158 159 125 159 165 169 175 N/A 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 657 724 853 802 855 882 877 712 951 920 926 782 N/A 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 445 473 615 514 544 609 555 458 608 559 591 518 N/A 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 121 148 180 213 217 180 179 148 243 187 224 233 N/A 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 794 878 1,009 948 1,067 1,019 1,038 875 1,090 1,152 1,127 1,027 N/A 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 389 516 416 448 449 439 405 473 484 524 441 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 68 160 138 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 Central government (S. 1311) 2,162 3,497 3,419 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 212 376 526 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 Households (S. 14, 15) 7,827 8,413 9,282 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,149 21,704 21,648 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,815 2,680 2,496 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,666 5,302 5,812 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 32,113 34,731 35,991 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 In foreign currency 2,370 1,895 1,843 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 Securities, total 3,346 5,345 5,349 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 23,129 27,965 26,765 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 Overnight 6,605 7,200 8,155 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,971 9,779 8,192 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 With agreed maturity -long-term 4,157 9,688 10,336 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,396 1,298 82 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 Deposits in foreign currency, total 490 433 463 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 Overnight 215 238 285 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 With agreed maturity -short-term 198 123 121 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 With agreed maturity -long-term 41 45 55 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 36 27 2 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.46 0.28 0.21 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 4.30 2.51 1.82 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.77 6.43 5.53 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.62 6.28 5.75 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 3.7^ 3.2^ 2.5^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.63 1.23 0.81 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 6-month rates 4.72 1.44 1.08 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.58 0.37 0.19 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 6-month rates 2.69 0.50 0.27 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 2011 9 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,914 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,014 22,022 21,814 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,648 21,794 21,777 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,536 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,496 2,453 2,401 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,459 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,812 5,674 5,742 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,939 35,493 35,389 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,991 35,989 36,016 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,875 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,728 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,349 5,269 5,271 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27936 27,077 27,355 26,817 26,696 27,486 26,765 27,628 27,235 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7969 7,934 8,038 8,029 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 8376 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,192 8,814 8,483 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 11416 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,336 10,496 10,550 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 707 465 494 465 456 471 463 452 453 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 515 283 310 280 286 291 285 282 287 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.84 1.87 1.83 1.89 1.86 1.89 1.95 2.04 1.98 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.63 5.40 5.84 4.90 5.72 6.00 5.43 5.71 5.45 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 - 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 5 1 6 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,339.2 14,408.0 14,789.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,352.3 1,102.2 1,240.7 Current revenues 14,792.3 13,639.5 13,768.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,782.1 1,047.1 1,151.5 Tax revenues 13,937.4 12,955.4 12,848.3 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.8 996.5 1,091.7 Taxes on income and profit 3,442.2 2,805.1 2,490.7 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 229.5 192.1 Social security contributions 5,095.0 5,161.3 5,234.5 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 423.8 423.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258.0 28.5 28.1 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 2.3 2.4 Taxes on property 214.9 207.0 219.7 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 15.8 27.9 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,805.3 4,660.2 4,780.6 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.8 316.7 436.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120.1 90.5 90.7 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 8.2 8.6 Other taxes 1.8 2.9 4.0 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 0.2 0.3 Non-tax revenues 854.9 684.1 920.4 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 292.3 50.6 59.8 Capital revenues 117.3 106.5 174.2 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 120.3 15.5 10.4 Grants 10.4 11.1 12.5 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 4.9 0.2 0.8 Transferred revenues 53.9 54.3 109.4 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.8 0.1 1.0 Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 596.5 724.7 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 39.3 77.0 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15,441.7 16,368.2 16,675.9 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,570.1 1,478.1 1,330.9 Current expenditures 6,557.5 6,800.8 6,958.9 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,769.5 580.8 532.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,578.9 3,911.9 3,914.4 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 982.0 374.0 318.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,527.5 2,510.3 2,509.6 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 740.2 202.2 203.1 Interest payments 335.2 336.1 488.1 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.1 1.9 4.8 Reserves 116.0 42.5 46.8 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.3 2.7 5.9 Current transfers 6,742.2 7,339.4 7,625.4 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,970.4 761.3 603.8 Subsidies 476.5 597.9 581.4 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.3 54.7 40.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,619.2 6,024.5 6,274.5 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,559.7 643.7 483.9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598.3 678.1 729.3 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.8 56.3 71.2 Current transfers abroad 48.2 38.9 40.1 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 6.6 7.8 Capital expenditures 1,255.5 1,294.1 1,305.8 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 321.1 579.5 84.1 87.4 Capital transfers 458.6 494.6 389.1 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 169.5 27.8 68.0 Payments to the EU budget 427.9 439.3 396.8 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 24.1 39.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,886.4 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2009 2010 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.5 1,183.6 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,702.6 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,047.8 1,116.0 993.6 1,062.1 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,110.0 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,385.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 1,027.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.6 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 114.1 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 268.6 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 432.7 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 491.6 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 24.7 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 15.1 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 444.4 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 440.1 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 8.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 8.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 53.8 62.1 58.2 61.2 56.2 60.1 83.0 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 158.1 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.9 7.3 5.3 5.3 9.4 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 81.9 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 100.9 1.4 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.5 45.1 67.9 12.0 26.3 49.5 61.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 231.8 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.3 1,372.1 1,355.7 1,322.7 1,464.5 1,335.4 1,302.9 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,777.1 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.0 631.6 643.6 613.9 594.4 548.9 529.5 529.0 578.4 557.2 543.8 668.5 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.6 315.2 324.6 313.9 377.2 321.5 319.7 324.8 319.0 329.2 322.8 330.0 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.3 206.8 193.4 211.9 219.6 203.2 200.5 183.9 203.2 216.9 320.1 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.7 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 12.7 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.2 612.0 753.2 629.9 608.7 590.1 612.0 624.5 633.0 712.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 39.3 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 97.6 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 509.1 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 523.4 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 59.0 59.4 64.9 58.2 59.0 89.6 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.3 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.6 67.2 86.7 108.2 99.7 113.2 116.1 161.6 301.8 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 19.1 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 52.0 25.6 22.1 34.3 40.7 68.1 60.8 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 30.8 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 33.0 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI -Consumer Price index, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESA - European System of Accounts, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross Domestic Product, GFS - Government Finance Statistics, HICP - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, IAADP - International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, PPI - Producer price Index, RS -Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS - Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.