1 Documenta Praehistorica XLIII (2016) A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe Alasdair Whittle 1, Alex Bayliss2, Alistair Barclay 3, Bisserka Gaydarska 1, Eszter Bánffy 4, Du[an Borić 1, Florin Draşovean5, János Jakucs 6, Miroslav Marić 7, David Orton 8, Ivana Pantović 9, Wolfram Schier 10, Nenad Tasić 11 and Marc Vander Linden12 1 Department of Archaeology and Conservation, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK whittle@cardiff.ac.uk< gaydarskab1@cardiff.ac.uk< boricd@cardiff.ac.uk 2 English Heritage, London, UK< and Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK alex.bayliss@historicengland.org.uk 3 Wessex Archaeology, Salisbury, UK< a.barclay@wessexarch.co.uk 4 Römisch-Germanische Kommission, Frankfurt am Main, DE< eszter.banffy@dainst.de 5 The National Museum of Banat, Timişoara, RO< fdrasovean2000@yahoo.com 6 Institute of Archaeology, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, H< jakucs86@gmail.com 7 The Institute for Balkan Studies, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade, RS< dzibril@gmail.com 8 BioArCh, Department of Archaeology, University of York, York, UK< david.orton@york.ac.uk 9 The City Museum of Vr[ac, Vr[ac, RS< arhivana@yahoo.com 10 Institute of Prehistoric Archaeology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, DE< wolfram.schier@fu-berlin.de 11 Faculty of Philosophy, Belgrade University, Belgrade, RS< ntasic@gmail.com 12 Institute of Archaelogy, University College, London, UK< marc.linden@ucl.ac.uk ABSTRACT – Recent work at Vin≠a-Belo Brdo has combined a total of more than 200 radiocarbon dates with an array of other information to construct much more precise narratives for the struc- tural history of the site and the cultural materials recovered from it. In this paper, we present the results of a recent attempt to construct formal models for the chronology of the wider Vin≠a potscape, so that we can place our now detailed understanding of changes at Belo Brdo within their contem- porary contexts. We present our methodology for assessing the potential of the existing corpus of more than 600 radiocarbon dates for refining the chronology of the five phases of Vin≠a ceramics proposed by Miloj≠i≤ across their spatial ranges, including a total of 490 of them in a series of Baye- sian chronological models. Then we outline our main results for the development of Vin≠a pottery. Finally, we discuss some of the major implications for our understanding of the source, character and tempo of material change. IZVLE∞EK – Nedavne raziskave najdi∏≠a Vin≠a-Belo Brdo zdru∫ujejo ve≠ kot 200 radiokarbonskih da- tumov z zbirko drugih podatkov z namenom ustvariti bolj natan≠ne zgodbe o strukturni zgodovini najdi∏≠a in o izkopanem kulturnem materialu. V tem ≠lanku predstavljamo rezultate nedavnih po- skusov oblikovanja formalnih modelov za kronologijo na ∏ir∏em obmo≠ju kulture Vin≠a, da lahko umestimo zdaj ∫e podrobno razumevanje sprememb na Belem Brdu v njihove so≠asne kontekste. Predstavljamo tudi na∏o metodologijo za ocenjevanje potenciala obstoje≠ega korpusa ve≠ kot 600 radiokarbonskih datumov za bolj natan≠no kronologijo vseh petih faz vin≠anske keramike, kot jih je postavil Miloj≠i≤, v njihovih prostorskih omejitvah, vklju≠ujo≠ ∏e skupaj 490 datumov v seriji Ba- yesovega kronolo∏kega modeliranja. Nato ori∏emo glavne rezultate razvoja vin≠anske lon≠enine. Na koncu razpravljamo ∏e o nekaterih glavnih posledicah na∏ega razumevanja vira, zna≠ilnosti in hi- trosti sprememb v materialni kulturi. KEY WORDS – Neolithic; Vin≠a ceramics; Bayesian chronological modelling; radiocarbon dating; network DOI> 10.4312\dp.43.1 Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 2 The significance of the Vin≠a culture for the development of the Neolithic in SE Europe The Vin≠a culture belongs to the latter part of the sixth millennium cal BC and the first half of the fifth millennium cal BC (Chapman 1981; Markoti≤ 1984; Bori≤ 2009; Por≠i≤ 2011; Orton 2012). Its broad distribution extends through the river valleys – the Danube, its tributaries and their catchments – of the northern and central Balkans, from southern- most Hungary and easternmost Croatia through Ser- bia down to Kosovo and parts of Macedonia, and from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina eastwards as far as parts of Transylvania in Romania and west- ern Bulgaria (Fig. 1). The phenomenon presents a series of significant changes in the character of Neo- lithic settlement and social relations (Gara∏anin 1979; Chapman 1981; Kaiser, Voytek 1983; Tring- ham, Krsti≤ 1990a), following the initial establish- ment of Neolithic existence in the area of its distrib- ution from the late seventh and early sixth millen- nium cal BC onwards (Whittle et al. 2002). These include changing materiality; the expansion of mate- rial networks; the spread, consolidation and diver- sification of settlement, involving increased seden- tism in the form of large settlements and tells; the intensification of subsistence; the introduction of copper metallurgy; and the emergence of both larger communities and distinctive households within them (Chapman 1981; 2000; Kaiser, Voytek 1983; Tring- ham, Krsti≤ 1990a; Tripkovi≤, Mili≤ 2009; Orton 2010; Orton et al. 2016). Im- portant issues of settlement expansion, population incre- ase, changes in production, a greater variety of sites includ- ing tells themselves, more per- manence of occupation, the role of households and the nature of community have all been much discussed (see also Bori≤ 2009; 2015; Borojevi≤ 2006; Chapman 1990; Crno- brnja et al. 2009; Lazarovici 1979; Link 2006.93–6; Orton 2010; 2012; Por≠i≤ 2012; Schier 1995; Tasi≤ 2011; Tringham et al. 1992; Tripko- vi≤ 2011; Whittle 1996.105). It has been clear since the first radiocarbon dates (see Chapman 1981) that these features developed over a timescale of several centuries. Explanations of the radical transformations which both the emergence and the demise of the Vin≠a culture brought have varied considerably, from migrations within the cul- ture history framework (e.g., N. Tasi≤ et al. 1990.32– 33; cf. Hervella et al. 2015), to the increasing impor- tance as time went on of individual households and competitive social relations (Tringham, Krsti≤ 1990a; Chapman 2000). One widely shared view, within a culture-historical framework, has been of southern origins for both initiation of the Vin≠a culture and subsequent changes during its development (such as the claimed ‘shock of Vin≠a C’ (e.g., Gara∏anin 1951; 1979; G. Lazarovici 2000; Suciu 2009)). So the Vin≠a phenomenon is central to our understand- ing of social and cultural change in Neolithic south- east Europe, and also in surrounding areas. Despite the host of interpretations and chronological schemes produced, however, it remains the case that the cal- endar dating of Vin≠a culture changes – which prin- cipally boil down to changes in pottery – has not so far been rigorously or widely established, though important earlier efforts in that direction should be noted (Bori≤ 2009; 2015; Orton 2012; Schier 1995; 1996; 2000; 2014). Periodisation schemes for Vin≠a ceramics: a brief historiography Distinctive material culture, including modelled face- like lids, figurines and copper artefacts but predomi- Fig. 1. Map of the maximum extent of the occurrence of Vin≠a ceramics across south-east Europe. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 3 nantly the ubiquitous, abundant and high-quality, dark-burnished pottery, has been the basis for clas- sic periodisations of Vin≠a material (see Tasi≤ et al. 2016a; Fig. 2). That these in turn have been the spur for prolonged debate about the nature and source of origins and subsequent changes underlines their continuing importance. The practice of researchers has been to infer chronology from changing typo- logical phases of ceramics, sometimes placing this on an absolute scale by reference to the available radiocarbon dates or by analogy with dated schemes from neighbouring areas. This approach assumes that two typologically identical assemblages are synchronous, no matter their geographical location. Variation through time and variation through space are thus conflated by this approach, which has been the source of much confusion, controversy and debate. Gordon Childe (1929.27–32; cf. Menghin 1931) had enough data to distinguish only two phases (Vin≠a I and II). This was based mainly on Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, since this provided the most abundant material. The next, more developed periodisation of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo was by Friedrich Holste (1939) based on the typology of pottery excavated and published by Mi- loje Vasi≤, and dividing the material into five phas- es labelled A–E, with phases A–D covering the Neo- lithic development of the site. Although redefined and remodelled by later authors, this basic struc- ture continues to underpin most periodisations of Vin≠a material as a whole. In 1943 and 1949 Vladimir Miloj≠i≤ proposed a fur- ther refinement, using exclusively the published material from Vasi≤’s Preistoriska Vin≠a1. He basi- cally reproduced Holste’s scheme but added sub- phases B1 and B2. His phase B1 denotes a time when meanders still appear as a decorative motif and his phase B2 is the time of appearance of cur- vilinear motifs which were more visible in the fol- lowing Vin≠a C phase. Miloj≠i≤ also identified a tran- sitional C–D phase between 4.5–4 m, marking the transition to the last Neolithic phase at Belo Brdo (Miloj≠i≤ 1949a.266–267; see also a useful English summary in Miloj≠i≤ 1949b). He was also the first fully to incorporate other Late Neolithic sites from the central Balkans into his chronological system. Milutin Gara∏anin (1951) was the first to make an inventory of the entire pottery collection from Va- si≤’s excavations at Belo Brdo. He systematised the ceramic material and divided it into two major phas- es, Vin≠a-Tordo∏ and Vin≠a-Plo≠nik, also drawing 1 Some of his descriptions reveal that he had in-depth first-hand knowledge of the finds. Fig. 2. Overview of alternative typological schemes for Vin≠a ceramics (after Schier 1996). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 4 on material from other sites in the wider Vin≠a dis- tribution. He used the labels Tordo∏ and Plo≠nik to link his early and late phases of the Vin≠a sequence with the northernmost and southernmost sites known at the time. At first he sub-divided both his Vin≠a-Tordo∏ and Vin≠a-Plo≠nik phases, and later elaborated this division even further (Gara∏anin 1979; 1993). He also incorporated the views of Bo- rislav Jovanovi≤ (1994) on the Gradac phase, which stands for a sudden and significant change in the pottery forms first attested at the south Serbian site of Gradac2. Overlapping with and following the work of Gara- ∏anin, other periodisations essentially also based on the typology of pottery, such as those by Dumit- ru Berciu (1961), Stojan Dimitrijevi≤ (1968; 1974) and Gheorghe Lazarovici (1979; 1981), considered various areas of the Vin≠a distribution. In his quite brief treatment, Berciu essentially followed the structure already established by Miloj≠i≤, using the A–D terminology and still therefore with ultimate reliance on Vin≠a-Belo Brdo; his subdivision of Vin- ≠a B differs slightly from that of Miloj≠i≤ and he pro- posed a tripartite division of C. Vin≠a is correlated with other cultures of south-east Europe. His scheme principally covers Banat, Oltenia, Muntenia and Tran- sylvania. He made some reference to available un- calibrated radiocarbon dates and suggested a rela- tively low absolute chronology (Berciu 1961.Fig. 1, Pl. I). In turn, Dimitrijevi≤ concentrated on northern Ser- bia, Romanian Banat and Croatian Slavonia, primar- ily focusing on what was then called the Sopot-Leng- yel culture, and using key sites like Bapska and Vin- kovci, but with consideration of relationships and correlations with its neighbours. In this, reference was still made to Vin≠a-Belo Brdo by depth, with variation in subdivisions of B, C and D; for the first time, Vin≠a D is subdivided into D1 and D2, begin- ning at a depth of 4.5m at Belo Brdo (Dimitrijevi≤ 1968.89, kronolo∏ka tabela). Subdivision of A fol- lowed in a later article (Dimitrijevi≤ 1974). No ref- erence was made to radiocarbon dates, in a work completed in 1964 and a very low absolute chronol- ogy was proposed, underpinned by supposed Vin≠a links to Northern Greece (Dimitrijevi≤ 1968.121– 122). There followed further periodisation of the Neo- lithic ceramic sequence in the Banat of north-west Romania by Lazarovici (1979), using the strati- graphy of key sites such as Gornea and Parta, but yet again with reference to Vin≠a-Belo Brdo. The basic structure for the Vin≠a sequence remains famil- iar in outline, but A is now subdivided differently, C is simplified, a C–D phase is reinstated, and D is proposed as a single unit; transitions were also added, as A3 between A2 and B1, and B1/B2 and B2/C, equivalent to what were seen as hiatuses in the Belo Brdo sequence (G. Lazarovici 1979. Tab. 7, 76). While a range of other material is considered, it is the forms and decoration of the pottery which are described in most detail, phase by phase (G. La- zarovici 1979.105–139). Potential imports, from surrounding groups such as the Alföld Linearband- keramik, Szatmár, Bükk and Petresti, are also noted (G. Lazarovici 1979.163–168). Detailed attention was given to small-scale geographical variation with- in the Banat, explicit distinction was made between relative and absolute chronology, and comparisons were made with much further afield, as far as Ana- tolia and Mesopotamia (G. Lazarovici 1979.Tabs. 17–18, 178–179). A late absolute chronology is proposed, with the Vin≠a sequence placed between the late fifth and later third millennia (G. Lazaro- vici 1979.Tabs. 17–18, 178–179). The origins of the Vin≠a culture, with differences to the preceding Star- ≠evo-Cris complex, were seen as lying in a complex set of cultural and ethnic changes and fusions, affect- ing the Balkans as a whole (G. Lazarovici 1979.221). Subsequently, a review of the Vin≠a culture across Romania, summarising chronological trends in Olte- nia and Transylvania/Siebenbürgen as well as Ba- nat, reinforced this scheme; the C–D phase was omit- ted on this occasion (G. Lazarovici 1981.Beilage 1). There is still no reference to radiocarbon dating, and the chronological table lacks any absolute timescale. Famously, Vin≠a C was later characterised as a ‘shock’, involving migration from areas to the south (G. Lazarovici 1987). Further detail and refinement for Vin≠a C in the Banat were provided by Florin Drasovean (1994; 1996; Drasovean et al. 1996). Other reviews of the Romanian Neolithic have been published subsequently (e.g., Mantu 2000; C.-M. La- zarovici 2006; Suciu 2011). By the time of these papers, calibrated radiocarbon dates, even if rela- 2 Unfortunately, Gara∏anin (1979.152) misunderstood Miloj≠i≤’s subdivision, maintaining that, according to the latter, the transition between Vin≠a B2 and C would occur around a depth of 5m at Belo Brdo, instead of at 6m as Miloj≠i≤ had clearly stated. This led to several decades of mismatch between the two typological systems, since researchers more familiar with the Gara∏anin scheme consistently ‘translated’ the phase Vin≠a-Plo≠nik I back into the Miloj≠i≤ scheme as ‘Vin≠a B2–C’ instead of correctly ‘Vin≠a C’. We have been aware of this issue when interpreting the published ceramic phasing of dated sites in the analyses below. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 5 tively few in number, were incorporated into chrono- logical periodisations. It is worth noting that terms such as ‘wave’, ‘colonisation’ and ‘penetration’ are frequently used with reference to the Vin≠a culture; for example, “Vin≠a culture is part of the second great wave of southern origin” (Suciu 2011.75). On the basis of available radiocarbon dates, geo- graphical variation in the effect of ‘Vin≠a C type communities’ is seen, with contrasts between Tran- sylvania on the one hand and Banat and Oltenia on the other; in Transylvania, these are seen as deter- mining the appearance of the Copper Age, whereas in Banat and Oltenia, the beginning of the Copper Age is related to new migrations due to the Tiszapol- gár and Să lcuta cultures (C.-M. Lazarovici 2006. 277). Recently, Drasovean (2014) has argued that the beginning of the Copper Age in Banat and Tran- sylvania is tied to the emergence of Foeni-Petresti communities. Hermann Parzinger (1993) quantified the varying occurrence of selective decorative motifs and forms by depth through the Belo Brdo tell. Following the common perception at that time, he did not assign chronological significance to the sequence of mate- rial from the relative depths in the tell, but instead gave more weight to what he considered closed assemblages, like the few house inventories recog- nised by Vasi≤ (Parzinger 1993.60–63). However, this resulted in a rather small number of, arguably, unrepresentative assemblages being used in his analysis. Parzinger incorporated this in a compara- tive, typologically based scheme (deliberately with- out reference to radiocarbon dates: Parzinger 1993. 273) of successive cultural horizons, which covers the wider west Balkan region, and far beyond. At Belo Brdo itself he identified a series of Phases (I– VI), and over much wider areas a succession of hori- zons (4, 5a and 6–8 running parallel to the Belo Br- do sequence; Fig. 2). The A–D division was endorsed by John Chapman (1981) for pragmatic reasons, to enable comparison within the wider Vin≠a culture. In his work, phas- es A–C denoted early Vin≠a and phase D late Vin≠a. Going beyond Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, and drawing on Fig. 3. Selected pot forms by depth at Vin≠a-Belo Brdo (after Miloj≠i≤ 1943). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 6 the then available radiocarbon dates (Chapman 1981.Fig. 14), he sketched sequences for five regions: Serbia and Macedonia, the Vojvodina, north Bosnia, Ol- tenia and Transylvania (Chap- man 1981.22–31). Taking just the example of decorative mo- tifs on ‘early Vin≠a’ pottery, he was able to show significant regional variation (Chapman 1981.Fig. 11). The scheme developed by Wolf- ram Schier consists of eight main phases and several sub- phases, and covers the sequence from the beginning of the Vin- ≠a occupation on the Belo Brdo tell to 4m from its top (Schier 1995; 1996; 2000). This was based on detailed analyses of changes in the form and deco- ration in a sample of about 2500 mostly unpublished vessel fragments (mainly bowls) recorded by rela- tive depth, and its chronological credibility was test- ed by correspondence analysis. Schier also com- pared the newly defined phases with data from sev- eral other sites and concluded that the proposed division is valid at least for the ‘core’ area of the Vin≠a distribution, within a radius of some 100km of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo itself, in the middle Morava, πuma- dija and the Banat (Schier 1995.251–293; 1996.147). Finally, since the appearance of Schier’s chronology, Gara∏anin (2000) has refined his chronological sys- tem even further, consistent with Schier’s results. Additional subdivisions have been added, includ- ing Vin≠a-Tordo∏ IIb 1–3. Regional differences, imports, imitation and influence: issues of variability The brief review above documents how the culture concept has persisted, perhaps largely for reasons of convenience. But it is also perfectly clear that many specialists have sought both intra- and inter- regional variation within the Vin≠a ‘culture’ (e.g., Gara∏anin 1979; G. Lazarovici 1979; Chapman 1981). The notion of a Vin≠a core radiating around Vin≠a-Belo Brdo has been proposed (Schier 1995), though this may not necessarily be accepted from the perspective of other areas (Lekovi≤ 1990; Mak- kay 1990; Jovanovi≤ 1994). There is clear recogni- tion, even within the culture-historical framework, that the affiliation or allegiance of particular regions may shift through time; cultural boundaries were not immutable or permanently fixed. Actual imports from neighbouring or surrounding regions have also been claimed, as noted above (G. Lazarovici 1979), and other potential examples were given by Corne- lia-Magda Mantu (2000.80) and Florin Drasovean (1994; 1996), among others. Complex, wide-ranging interactions and fusions have been envisaged. So, at various levels, many scholars have in practice broken down a monolithic Vin≠a culture into a more varied and nuanced network. Yet in many accounts there is also a reversion to single explanations, espe- cially when it comes to moments of key transition, in terms of emergence, possible rupture and end- ings, and the dominant threads linking these are the claimed importance of areas to the south, in the southern Balkans, northern Greece and beyond, and inferred migrations. Given developments in aDNA studies (e.g., Brandt et al. 2013; Szécsényi-Nagy et al. 2015; cf. D. Hof- mann 2015), we have to deal with population chan- ges and infiltrations (and see again Hervella et al. 2015; and further discussion below). But what is missing from the wider field of Vin≠a culture stud- ies is a more reflective sense of possible diversity and variability. The task then becomes to attempt to unpick the complex cultural history of interaction, innovation, imitation, influence, copying and import- Fig. 4. Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő, Grave 2484 accompanied by a Vin≠a A1 (Schier 1995) bowl (after Jakucs et al. 2016). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 7 ing, not excluding the possibility of population move- ment and replacement but equally not assuming a priori that those should be the default explanations for change and variation. This paper proceeds on this basis, using pottery as its principal evidence. Ultimately, the whole range of Vin≠a material and practices should be the goal. Pottery as proxy dating: absolute chronology and typochronology Finally, by way of introduction, it is important to underline the difference between relative chronol- ogy, or sequence provided by a combination of typol- ogy (and on occasion seriation based on correspon- dence analysis: Schier 1995; 2000) and site stratig- raphy, and absolute dating, based on formal model- ling of calibrated radiocarbon dates on short-lived samples of known taphonomy, that are robustly associated with the archaeological contexts or diag- nostic assemblages which they are used to date. Past generations of researchers, in the absence of large assemblages of high-quality radiocarbon dates and adequate statistical methodologies for their rigorous interpretation, have perforce attempted the syn- chronisation of relative sequences of pottery types based on typological considerations (perhaps with reference to the limited numbers of low-quality radiocarbon dates available to them). This form of ‘pseudo’ absolute chronology must be distinguished from what we propose here, which is the synchro- nisation of such sequences on the basis of robust statistical models of large numbers of radiocarbon dates that are directly associated with pottery which can be fitted within a common typological sequence. This approach builds upon the careful typological schemes of past research3, but in proper combina- tion with scientific dating, adds absolute timescales to these sequences. Such timings, as we describe below, allow us to disentangle spatial from chrono- logical variation in the use of these well established types. Aims of this paper: dating a potscape As we have seen, the Vin≠a culture has long been a familiar part of the culture-historical vocabulary used to frame, order, and interpret the Neolithic of south- east Europe. Many past notions derived from the use of the culture concept, however, including those of origins, identity and change, appear to have been based, in the end, largely or principally on the char- acter and distributions of pottery styles, and the case of the Vin≠a complex is no exception. We are going to use the wealth of knowledge about Vin≠a pottery which has been built up over now a century and more of research as a key component in con- structing a formally modelled chronology for the development of Vin≠a pottery across its wide dis- tribution. If the landscape is what can be seen, and a taskscape what can be heard (Ingold 1993.162), a Vin≠a potscape could be defined as what could be held in the hands of the makers and users of the many ceramic assemblages across that distribution: borrowing Ingold on the taskscape (1993.158), “the entire ensemble … in their mutual interlocking … an array” of related forms. Harnessing, rather than casting aside, many of the strengths of past research on the Vin≠a phenomenon, we seek to discuss the many implications of our model for questions of the character and tempo of material change, and the nature of cultural variability. While we do not avoid the term, ‘the Vin≠a culture’, alternative terminology could help to recast many traditional debates (Por- ≠i≤ 2012.171; Bori≤ 2015.189–195), and from here on we use other terms such as network to charac- terise the potscape under discussion. In a major project, The Times of Their Lives (see Acknowledgements), we have obtained substantial numbers of new radiocarbon dates and formally modelled the results in a Bayesian statistical frame- work for four sites with Vin≠a pottery: the tell of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, in northern Serbia (Tasi≤ et al. 2015; 2016a; 2016b), the tell of Uivar in western Romania (Drasovean et al. submitted; Schier et al. in preparation), and the flat settlements at Szeder- kény and Versend, in south-west Hungary (Jakucs et al. 2016; submitted). Encouraged by the coher- ent results from these sites, we were then interested to see if we could put these into the broader frame- work of the development of the Vin≠a network con- centrating on the potscape of ceramic change. For this we have collected the published and other radio- carbon dates available to us in 2015. For our inves- tigations at Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, we provided formal estimates for several of the available ceramic schemes (Tasi≤ et al. 2016a.Figs. 22– 24, Tabs. 8–9; and see 3 But we note the lack of rigorous, quantitative typo-chronological studies on statistically viable samples of Vin≠a ceramics, and the lack of representative analysis and full publication of excavated assemblages. These deficiencies in the analyses and publication of Vin≠a assemblages have been the major obstacle in the construction of the chronological models presented below rather than any lack of good-quality radiocarbon dates. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 8 Fig. 2), but for this paper we have used, for the sake of simplicity and wide applicability, the A–D scheme of Miloj≠i≤ (1943; 1949a). Specifically, we aimed to: ● relate our models for Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, Uivar, Sze- derkény and Versend to the wider pattern of cera- mic change, formally modelled within the A–D scheme for the Vin≠a culture; ● examine critically the temporal and geographical coherence of the A–D scheme; ● identify temporal and geographical variation in the adoption, maintenance and abandonment of ceramic styles within the A–D scheme; ● and by these means investigate the character and tempo of cultural change. Scientific dating and Bayesian chronological modelling for Vin≠a ceramics The first radiocarbon dates for Vin≠a ceramics were very much in the tradition of their time — one or two samples of charred material from a given site. Only a handful of sites had three to six dates. Vin≠a-Belo Brdo itself was fortunate to obtain two measurements on charred grain samples (GrN-1537 and GrN-1546; Vogel, Waterbolk 1963.183–184), and one measure- ment on a sample of unidentified charcoal (GrN- 1535; Todorovi≤, Cermanovi≤ 1961.71). At the beginning of the 1980s, Chapman (1981.17– 31) was able to gather details of 36 radiocarbon dates from 16 sites from which Vin≠a pottery had been recovered, and used these uncalibrated radio- carbon dates in comparison with local stratigraph- ic sequences. He reached three major conclusions: that the duration of phases A–C was comparable to the duration of the entire D phase; that the final centuries of the Vin≠a culture were not represented at the type-site; and that the different rates of devel- opment in the various regions prevent Vin≠a Belo- Brdo from being used as a ‘type-site’ for the devel- opment of the Vin≠a culture as a whole. In the 1990s, Schier (1996.Tab. 1) obtained a series of 14 conventional radiocarbon dates on worked antlers and large animal bones that had been re- covered by Vasi≤ at Belo Brdo and recorded by depth. These derive from the lower and middle part of the tell (4.1–9.3m) covered by his seriation of a sample of the surviving pottery assemblage. Using these results and the first series of dates produced in Groningen, Schier (1996.Figs. 11–12) produced the first Bayesian chronological model for Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, combining the radiocarbon dates with the depths through the tell recorded on the samples. At the same time Roland Gläser (1996) presented a review of 76 radiocarbon dates from 14 sites con- taining Vin≠a ceramics. He provided a Bayesian chro- nological model combining the site stratigraphy with the corpus of radiocarbon dates for Selevac (Gläser 1996.Fig. 5), but otherwise his analysis is based on simple calibrated radiocarbon dates and summed probability distributions of calibrated dates for select- ed sites, and site and ceramic phases. He suggested that the Vin≠a culture spanned the period from c. 5200 cal BC to c. 4500 cal BC. Du∏an Bori≤ (2009) mustered a total of 155 radio- carbon dates from 27 sites associated with Vin≠a pottery, including 40 new AMS measurements on short-life, single-entity samples from seven sites. Bayesian models were presented for six sites: Belo Brdo, Rudna Glava, Belovode, Plo≠nik, Gomolava and Divostin II. This analysis suggested that the culture dated from 5400–5300 cal BC to 4650–4600 cal BC. Contrary to Chapman, Bori≤ argued (2009. 234) for an approximately similar duration of each phase (A to D) of 200±50 years. More recently, a set of 26 new AMS dates on animal bone from Gomola- va, Opovo and Petnica have been published and Bayesian models constructed (Orton 2012). These new dates generally fit the chronological framework suggested by Bori≤. The chronological framework and approach It is now time not only to compare these new site chronologies with each other, but also to set them within the wider framework of other dated sites that formed part of the Vin≠a network. We consider a corpus of 564 radiocarbon dates that have been pub- lished as relating to Vin≠a pottery (Tab. 1)4. Full details of these measurements are provided in Table 2 where we have gathered information from diverse sources or when measurements are published for the first time. Where full details of measurements have already been published (e.g., Bori≤ 2009) references to sources used for each site are provided in Table 1. Chronological modelling has been undertaken using the program OxCal v4.2 (Bronk Ramsey 2009; Bronk 4 Additionally, there are 34 radiocarbon dates from the latest levels of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo in Sector II (Tasi≤ et al. 2015), 101 from the recently excavated deep sounding (Tasi≤ et al. 2016b), and two from the 2011 profile that are not considered here. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 9 Ramsey, Lee 2013) and the calibration dataset of Reimer et alii (2013). The algorithms used in the models are defined exactly either by the brackets and OxCal keywords on the left-hand side of the fig- ures or by the CQ2 code provided as supplementary information (http://c14.arch.ox.ac. uk/). In the fig- ures, the outputs from the models, the posterior density estimates, are shown in black, and the un- constrained calibrated radiocarbon dates are shown in outline; dates on samples of charred plant remains that may have an old-wood offset are shown in grey; the parameter names of distributions that have been excluded from the modelling are followed by ‘?’. Some distributions do not relate to single radiocar- bon dates. These other distributions correspond to aspects of the model. For example, the distribution ‘start Szederkény’ (Fig. 5) is the posterior density estimate for the time when the settlement at Szeder- kény was established. In the text and tables, the Highest Posterior Density intervals of the posterior density estimates are given in italics. Calibrated date ranges given in normal type have been calcu- lated using IntCal13 and the probability method (Stuiver, Reimer 1993), and do not derive from the chronological models described. All ranges have been rounded outwards to five years. For each measurement, we examine the character of the dated material and its association with Vin≠a ceramics. Given the absence of an agreed typological scheme across the region, assemblages have been allocated to Miloj≠i≤’s (1943; 1949a) scheme: A, B1, B2 (incorporating what was later called the Gradac phase), C (incorporating Miloj≠i≤’s (1949a; 1949b) phase C–D), and D (incorporating all proposed sub- divisions) (Fig. 3). Where site stratigraphy is avail- able, this is used in a Bayesian model to constrain the calibration of the radiocarbon dates. In some cases the available published information is not suf- ficient to demonstrate a robust association between the dated samples and a ceramic phase(s) (these results are reported in footnotes). Ideally, we wish to include in our models only radio- carbon dates on short-life samples that are directly associated with typologically diagnostic assemblages of the relevant pottery. Dates on articulated animal bones from closed ceramic assemblages in pits, for example, are ideal (for a demonstration of the po- tential of this approach see Denaire et al. in press). Unfortunately, the samples submitted for dating by past researchers, the published typological and stra- tigraphic information, and the reporting of the radio- carbon measurements and their associated details (Bayliss 2015) are frequently less than ideal. In these circumstances, we have been forced to make prag- matic judgements about the information available to us. We have only included radiocarbon dates in our study that are published as having a clear associa- tion with Vin≠a ceramics that have been assigned to various typological schemes (cf. Fig. 2), which we have converted to the Miloj≠i≤ (1943) scheme. This means that sites often have more radiocarbon dates than have been used in the modelling, but these are either associated with activity of other periods or do not have explicit associations with diagnostic Vin- ≠a material. In many cases it has been impossible for us to judge the validity of the published ceramic association, as sites are not yet published in detail. Sometimes associations cannot be made at the fea- ture or structure level, but rather an entire site is cat- egorised as only containing material of a certain phase. It should be noted that the association between cultural material and the radiocarbon sam- Fig. 5. Probability distributions of key parameters from Szederkény-Kukurica-dűlő, derived from the model defined by Jakucs et al. (2016.Fig. 10). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 10 ple is critical to avoid circular arguments (by which a site is assigned to particular ceramic phase on the basis of the calibrated radiocarbon dates rather than the typological characteristics of the pottery present). This legacy dataset is inevitably of variable quality. Although over 70% of measurements have been made by AMS, short-life, single-entity samples that can be confidently associated with the use of the feature from which the sample derived constitute less than a quarter of dates (and 80% of those derive from just two sites, Szederkény and Versend). Over 20% of samples were of unidentified charcoal (or of charcoal from long-lived species such as oak and elm) and so may incorporate an old-wood offset. Other samples consist of disarticulated animal bones or single carbonised cereal grains, where it is not known whether the dated material derived from particular concentrations. Such materials might well be residual (older than their contexts) or intrusive (younger than their contexts). We have attempted to distil reliable chronology from this body of data, by incorporating each result into the model in a way that is appropriate for the dated material. ● Samples of human bone from graves, articulated animal bone groups, and short-lived charred plant remains (including short-life charcoal) from fired features such as hearths or large concentrations, such as coherent dumps in pits, have been incor- porated into the models as short-life material like- ly to be contemporary with the archaeological activity of interest (n = 134). ● Disarticulated animal bones and short-lived charr- ed plant material from houses or pits have also been included fully in the models, although we consider the archaeological association in this case to be less reliable (n = 244); in a number of cases the dates on these samples are clearly much ear- lier than related dates (usually having a poor individual index of agreement in the model) and so they have been modelled as residual termini post quos (n = 43), and in a few cases they are clearly intrusive (n = 8). ● Samples of unidentified charcoal (or charcoal from long-lived species) have been incorporated into the models as termini post quos (n = 115), except for a few which are statistically consistent with results on short-life materials from the same context (n = 5). ● Five results from Uivar have been excluded from the model for that site for technical reasons (Schier et al. forthcoming). In total, therefore, our models include 490 radio- carbon measurements (with a further 66 not in- cluded in the analysis either because there is a sig- nificant possibility that the measurements are inac- curate, or because we think the dated material was intrusive, or because the association with the Vin≠a ceramics is unclear). A total of 134 measurements on short-lived samples firmly associated with the dated context are included fully in the models (27%); a further 193 measurements on short-life material that can be associated with the dated con- text less reliably have also been included fully in the modelling (40%), with another 43 such samples modelled as termini post quos as the dated mate- rial was probably residual (9%); and 120 measure- ments on charcoal samples of uncertain maturity are included in the models as termini post quos (24%). Our analysis suggests that overall there is approximately a 25% chance that a disarticulated animal bone, or a short-life charred plant from a deposit with which it is not functionally related, is residual or intrusive. This demonstrates the need to date articulating bone groups or single fragments of short-lived charred plant material from primary deposits (Bayliss et al. 2016). This analysis provides quantitative date estimates for Miloj≠i≤’s (1943) ceramic phase boundaries at different sites that are independent of any synchro- nisation between alternative typological schemes. In some cases the character of the dated material means that samples can only provide termini post quos for particular ceramic phases, or can only be allocated to a range of ceramic phases. We start by considering the chronologies and ceramic associa- tions of particular sites, and construct chronological models for sites which have more than three radio- carbon dates on short-lived material with robust ceramic associations. We then construct a series of models for the chronology of each of Miloj≠i≤’s cera- mic phases, utilising posterior distributions from the site-based models as inputs for these models where appropriate and calibrated radiocarbon dates where not. This ensures that sites which have many radio- carbon dates (e.g., Uivar or Belo Brdo which between them have almost half of the radiocarbon measure- ments considered in this review) do not dispropor- tionately affect the analysis. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 11 The Vin≠a potscape We discuss the dated sites from west to east, follow- ing the Danube downstream and examining sites in the catchments of its tributaries as these join the river (Fig. 1). The Danube upstream of the Tisza A linear strip 1.7km long, comprising 12.5ha, was investigated at Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő between 2005 and 2008. The site lies approx. 20km west of the current course of the Danube in south-eastern Transdanubia, Hungary. A total of 66 longhouses, orientated NE–SW and broadly conforming to the longhouse architecture which is generally perceived as a hallmark of the central European Linearband- keramik (LBK), and 50 crouched inhumations were recovered. Most of the graves are unfurnished, although some were accompanied by Vin≠a ceram- ics (Fig. 4). Vin≠a pottery, from Schier’s (1996) A1– A3 phases, was recovered from settlement features (Jakucs, Voicsek 2015). This material can be related to Miloj≠i≤ phase A used in this study. Forty-one radiocarbon measurements are available from this site (Jakucs et al. 2016.Tab. 1), of which 19 are from features containing diagnostic Vin≠a A ceramics. These dominated the assemblages from the eastern and central areas of the site (the west- ern part contained mainly Ra∫i∏te-type pottery). Já- nos Jakucs et alii (2016.Fig. 11) present a model for the chronology of Szederkény, which is summarised in Figure 5. This estimates that Vin≠a A ceramics appeared here in 5360–5305 cal BC (95% proba- bility; start Szederkény; Fig. 5), probably in 5340– 5315 cal BC (68% probability), and ceased to be used in 5230–5175 cal BC (95% probability; last Szederkény eastern; Fig. 5), probably in 5215–5190 cal BC (68% probability). The site of Versend-Gilencsa lies in southern Hun- gary, approx. 2km east of Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő (Jakucs et al. submitted). A linear strip totalling 2.24ha was excavated along the planned line of the motorway, divided by the course of the Versend stream. Features of the Neolithic settlement could be detected on the floodplains of the eastern and western side of the watercourse. On the eastern side, unambiguous traces of 21 long- houses orientated NE–SW could be identified. These were arranged in rows, and each was flanked by longitudinal pits containing mixed assemblages of early LBK and Vin≠a A ceramics. The density of archaeological features was higher on the western side, where the extensive traces of the Neolithic set- tlement were heavily destroyed by later activity. The houses were consequently much less identifiable. Sixty-eight radiocarbon measurements are available from this site (Jakucs et al. submitted.Tab. 1). Jakucs et alii (submitted.Figs. 5–6) present a model for the chronology of Versend, which is summarised in Figure 6. This estimates that the settlement began in 5305–5280 cal BC (2% probability; start Versend settlement; Fig. 6) or 5255–5210 cal BC (93% prob- ability), probably in 5235–5215 cal BC (68% prob- ability), and ceased to be used in 5220–5180 cal BC (93% probability; end Versend settlement; Fig. 6) or 5150–5115 cal BC (2% probability), probably in 5210–5195 cal BC (68% probability). Several occupation horizons that include assem- blages of Vin≠a pottery have been recovered from the tell settlement at Bapska, eastern Croatia, in 13 campaigns of excavation between 1911 and the pre- sent (Buri≤, Te∫ak-Gregl 2009; Buri≤ 2011). Two radiocarbon measurements are available from the 1964 trench; one from the foundation of House 2- A is associated with an assemblage described by Dimitrijevi≤ (1968.92) as Vin≠a D1 and equated by him with Miloj≠i≤’s phase C–D. This dating, being on charcoal from a potentially long-lived species, thus provides a terminus post quem of 4850–4485 cal BC (Bln-348; 95% probability) or 4780–4580 cal BC (68% probability) for the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase C at Bapska5. A further series of radiocarbon measure- ments have recently been obtained on short-lived material associated with Houses 1 and 2 from renew- ed excavations (Buri≤, Te∫ak-Gregl 2009; Buri≤ 2015). These appear to be associated with Vin≠a C or Vin≠a D ceramics, and can be modelled as span- ning 4645–4495 cal BC (95% probability; start Bapska C/D; Fig. 7), probably 4580–4515 cal BC (68% probability), and 4550–4420 cal BC (95% probability; end Bapska C/D; Fig. 7), probably 4535–4475 cal BC (68% probability). Tisza and Mures valleys The site of Maroslele-Pana is located in south-eastern Hungary, on the right (northern) bank of the Maros (Mures) river, northwest of the village of Maroslele, 5 A second sample from the 1964 excavations (Bln-346, 5955±80 BP, 5055–4665 cal BC (94% probability) or 4640–4615 cal BC (1% probability)) is associated with Sopot II pottery and is thus not included in this study. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 12 close to the confluence of the Tisza and Maros rivers. The site was first excavated in 1963; four Neolithic features (pits 1–4) and five crouched burials were documented (Trogmayer 1964). The pottery from this early campaign represented the late phases of the early Neolithic Körös culture. In 2008 there were further excavations in advance of road construction. The excavation took place on a low ridge and cov- ered 2.7ha. A total of 71 of the 231 excavated fea- tures can be dated to the Neolithic period (Paluch 2011). Five radiocarbon measurements were obtain- ed on animal bone from separate pits (Tab. 2). The dated pits contained diagnostic early Vin≠a A1–A2 (Schier 1996) and early Alföld LBK style pottery, but also some fragments and altar pieces which showed clear resemblances to the pottery style of the late Körös culture. The Vin≠a A1–A2 elements are most frequent in pit 85, while the other dated pits contain more equal proportions of early Vin≠a and Alföld LBK style material. The mixed (Vin≠a and Alföld LBK with early Neolithic traits) assemblage of Maroslele- Pana in the Tisza-Maros confluence area (Paluch 2011) can be seen as a similar phenomenon to that observed at Versend-Gilencsa in southern Transda- nubia and at Satchinez in northern Banat. The model for the dated activity from Maroslele-Pana has good overall agreement (Amodel: 106; Fig. 8) and suggests that the site was occupied between 5380–5220 cal BC (95% probability; Start Maroslele-Pana A; Fig. 8), probably in 5325–5250 cal BC (68% probabil- ity), and 5300–5095 cal BC (95% probability; End Maroslele-Pana A; Fig. 8), probably 5275–5195 cal BC (68% probability). At Ószentiván (site 8) four measurements were taken on bulk charcoal from a pit containing Vin≠a A pot- tery that was investigated during rescue excavations in 1960 (Kohl, Quitta 1970). This material was iden- tified as oak and elm charcoal, both species that can live to several hundred years, and so the combined result provides a terminus post quem for the pottery of 5305–5050 cal BC (95% probability; Ószentiván 8) Fig. 6. Probability distributions of key parameters from the settlement at Versend-Gilencsa, derived from the model defined by Jakucs et alii (submitted.Figs. 5–6). Fig. 7. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Bapska. Each distribution represents the rel- ative probability that an event occurs at a particular time. For each of the dates two distributions have been plotted: one in outline, which is the result of simple radiocarbon calibration, and a solid one, based on the chronological model used. Distributions other than those relating to particular samples corre- spond to aspects of the model. For example, the distribution ‘start Bapska D’ is the estimated date when Vin≠a D ceramics first appeared on the site. Measurements followed by a question mark and shown in outline have been excluded from the model for reasons explained in the text, and are simple calibrated dates (Stuiver, Reimer 1993). The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal key- words define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 13 or 5295–5245 cal BC (19% probability) or 5235– 5200 cal BC (13% probability) or 5170–5075 cal BC (36% probability). A single sample of unidentified charcoal was dated from pit 1, recovered in later excavations at the same site (published as Tiszasi- get), which was also associated with Vin≠a A ceram- ics (Trogmayer 1980.298). This provides a termi- nus post quem for the assemblage of 5465–5445 cal BC (1% probability; Bln-1631) or 5380–5190 cal BC (78% probability) or 5185–5055 cal BC (16% proba- bility), probably 5340–5205 cal BC (68% probabili- ty). The site of At is located to the north-west of Vr∏ac in south-eastern Banat, Serbia. The settlement was located on a sloping terrace on the north-west edge of Veliki rit, a marshy area drained in the mid-nine- teeth century. Several seasons of rescue excavations revealed the existence of a multi-period prehistoric site, ranging from the Lower Palaeolithic to the Late Neolithic (Joanovi≠, Priki≤ 1978). Renewed excava- tions in 2014–2015 revealed a structure of the Star- ≠evo period, and cut features associated with Vin≠a C and Vin≠a D ceramics (Chu et al. 2016). Four radio- carbon dates are available from the Vin≠a layers, two from pit 1 and two from the infilling of the Star- ≠evo structure. These place this activity between 6040–5960 cal BC (1% probability; Start At C/D; Fig. 9), or 5700–4660 cal BC (94% probability), probably in 5050–4720 cal BC (68% probability), and 4595–3510 cal BC (94% probability; End At C/D; Fig. 9), or 3180–3090 cal BC (1% probability), probably in 4535–4190 cal BC (68% probability). These estimates are extremely imprecise, with very long tails to the distributions, because there are cur- rently few dates from this site. Also in the vicinity of Vr∏ac is the 100ha flat settle- ment of Potporanj, which has produced early Vin≠a pottery and the largest quantity of obsidian found within the Vin≠a network. Provenance studies of this material show that it came from the Hungarian and Slovakian Carpathian Mountains (Tripkovi≤, Mili≤ 2009). Three radiocarbon dates are available from recent excavations of the site by Vr∏ac Museum. MAMS-22667, a sample of unidentified charcoal that may have an old-wood offset, provides a terminus post quem of 5210–5000 cal BC (95% probability) or 5210–5160 cal BC (25% probability) or 5120– 5105 cal BC (4% probability) or 5080–5005 cal BC (39% probability) for an assemblage of Vin≠a A ce- ramics in the earliest occupation level. MAMS-22666, also a sample of unidentified charcoal, provides a terminus post quem of 5215–5015 cal BC (95% pro- bability) or 5210–5090 cal BC (51% probability) or 5085–5050 cal BC (17% probability) for the use of Vin≠a B2/C ceramics in the latest habition level of the site. The third date, MAMS-22668, is on animal bone from a level associated with Vin≠a B2 pottery and dates this deposit to 5295–5240 cal BC (9% probability) or 5235–5190 cal BC (19% probability) or 5180–5060 cal BC (67% probability), probably 5220–5200 cal BC (13% probability) or 5170–5075 cal BC (55% probability). A sample of antler was dated from pit 4 at the Neo- lithic settlement of Satchinez, north-eastern Banat, Romania, which contained sherds of Vin≠a A2 pot- tery along with LBK sherds (Drasovean 1993; Hor- váth, Drasovean 2010.15). This provides a date of 5325–5200 cal BC (Deb-2579; 87% probability) or 5165–5115 cal BC (5% probability) or 5110–5075 cal BC (3% probability), probably 5300–5220 cal BC (68% probability) for this assemblage. Also in north- eastern Banat, Romania, two samples of antler have been dated from pit 4 at Hodoni, a multi-period site which has produced 20 pits containing Vin≠a C pot- tery (Drasovean 1994; 1996). These dates place this assemblage at 4845–4650 cal BC (93% probability; Hodoni: pit 4; Fig. 32) or 4640–4615 cal BC (2% Fig. 8. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Maroslele-Pana. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 14 probability), probably at 4795–4705 cal BC (68% probability). The tell site of Uivar in the Romanian Banat was ex- cavated between 1999 and 2009 by a Romanian- German team (Schier, Drasovean 2004; Schier 2008; Drasovean, Schier 2009; Schier 2016). It con- sists of a central tell settlement 4m high and cover- ing some 3ha, which was surrounded by a series of substantial ditches, some accompanied by palisades. These enclose an area of some 12ha. A flat settle- ment occupied at least some of this, and may have succeeded occupation on the tell itself. A complete sequence through the tell was excavated in Trench 1. A recent programme of chronological modelling utilising a total of 182 radiocarbon measurements from the site formally estimates the chronology of this complex (Schier et al. forthcoming; Drasovean et al. submitted). Only preliminary analyses of the pottery assemblages from the site have been undertaken so far. The low- est deposits in Trench 1 contained pottery predom- inantly in the Szakálhát tradition. The first Vin≠a- type sherds appear to be local imitations of Miloj≠i≤ B1 (Schier 1995.phase B). They occur from the con- struction horizon of H3d in 5045–4990 cal BC (95% probability; build H3d+c; Fig. 10), probably in 5035– 5000 cal BC (68% probability). The first sherds of Schier (1995) phase C1 (equivalent to late Miloj≠i≤ B2, see Fig. 2) pottery appear in the construction horizon of H3c, which unfortunately could not be dated directly since the structure did not provide suitable samples. The date of its appearance can be estimated, however, since this must be between the construction of buildings H3d and H3b. This model is shown in Figure 10 and suggests that late Miloj≠i≤ B2 (Schier 1995.phase C1) pottery first appeared in 5030–4930 cal BC (95% probability; start Miloj≠i≤ B2 at Uivar), probably in 5010–4950 cal BC (68% probability). It becomes predominant on the site from the construction horizon H3b in 4985–4910 cal BC (95% probability; build H3b; Fig. 10), prob- ably in 4960–4925 cal BC (68% probability). Miloj- ≠i≤ C (Schier 1995.phase C2) pottery appears from the construction of the H3a horizon in 4920–4850 cal BC (95% probability; build H3a; Fig. 10), prob- ably in 4905–4895 cal BC (8% probability) or 4890–4855 cal BC (60% probability). No sherds of Miloj≠i≤ C–D (Schier 1995.phase D1) pottery have been recovered from Uivar, and so Miloj≠i≤ C ceram- ics appear to have been current until the end of the Neolithic occupation of the tell in 4740–4600 cal BC (95% probability; end Uivar tell; Fig. 10), probably in 4725–4645 cal BC (68% probability). Three samples of bone have been dated from the site at Tărtăria, Transylvania, Romania (Merlini 2011. 224; Merlini, Lazarovici 2008.156). One is from a partial female skeleton found disarticulated and mixed with animal bone in the pit which is thought to have contained the Tărtăria tablets, one from cleaning of the 1942–1943 section, and one from the base of pit B2. Merlini places the pottery from the pit containing the skeleton in the Vin≠a phase A2 or A3, although Lazarovici (2010.Fig 8) places the same assemblage in Vin≠a A3/B1; he also places the assemblage from pit B2 in this phase. We have interpreted these classifications to refer to an assem- blage of Vin≠a B1 pottery, which contained surviving elements of Vin≠a A3. The taphonomy of the dated material and its asso- ciation with the recovered ceramics are problemat- ic. The animal bone from the base of pit B2 prob- ably provides a date for the associated Vin≠a B1 pot- tery (although, of course, it is always possible that a disarticulated bone is residual). This result cali- brates to 5315–5000 cal BC (R-1655; 95% probabil- ity), probably to 5295–5250 cal BC (13% probabili- ty) or 5230–5195 cal BC (12% probability) or 5180– 5065 cal BC (43% probability). The dated animal Fig. 9. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from At. The format is identical to that of Figure 7 (grey tone indicates the sample has a possible old-wood offset). The large square brackets down the left- hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 15 bone from the section is effectively unstratified and cannot be securely associated with the pottery6. Interpretation of the date on the female partial skele- ton is more complicated, since there appears to be evidence that the body was exposed for a period of time before burial in the pit associated with the tablets. For this reason, in this study we have includ- ed this date as a terminus post quem for the use of the Vin≠a B1 ceramics from the pit. This is 5470– 5200 cal BC (88% probability; R-1631) or 5165– 5115 cal BC (4% probability) or 5110–5075 cal BC (3% probability), probably 5360–5215 cal BC (68% probability)7. The settlement at Miercurea Sibiului-Petris, in the catchment of the upper Mures valley, consisted of surface houses and pits (Luca et al. 2006). These appear to be associated with Vin≠a B ceramics. Four radiocarbon dates are available on short-lived mate- rials from two pits and a house (Tab. 2)8. Pit 18 is stratigraphically earlier than pit 3 and house 11, although GrA-33127 from pit 18 appears to be on a residual cereal grain and so is incorporated in the model as a terminus post quem. This model has good overall agreement (Amodel: 79; Fig. 11), and suggests that Vin≠a B occupation here occurred bet- ween 5650–5025 cal BC (95% probability; Start Miercurea Sibiului-Petris B), probably 5290–5095 cal BC (68% probability), and 5280–4590 cal BC (95% probability; End Miercurea Sibiului-Petris B), probably 5170–4970 cal BC (68% probabili- ty) 9. Fig. 10. Probability distributions of key parameters relating to the use of Vin≠a ceramics at Uivar. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly (key parameters have been imported from the model defined by Schier et alii (forthcoming.Figs. 6.9, 6.12–6.22). 6 This sample was an unidentified animal bone recovered from the cleaning of the section of the 1942/3 excavation and produced a date of 5310–4995 cal BC (95% probability; R-1630, 6200±65 BP), probably 5285–5270 cal BC (2% probability) or 5225–5050 cal BC (66% probability). 7 The radiocarbon dates raise the possibility that Milady of Tărtăria was curated for some time before her bones were buried in this pit. It is 83% probable that R-1631 is earlier than R-1655, probably by -115–375 years (95% probability; distribution not shown), probably -10–240 years (68% probability). The negative parts of these ranges reflect the possibility that her bones were freshly deposited. 8 A further radiocarbon date from Miercurea Sibiului-Petris (GrA-26606, 6180±40 BP, 5285–5270 cal BC (1% probability) or 5230– 5000 cal BC (94% probability)) appears to be on an animal bone that was intrusive in Star≠evo pit 9 (Luca et al. 2006). 9 A cattle rib that was dated from L3 house, square 6–8 (110–130cm), at Limba (GrN-28112, 6290±50 BP, 5375–5200 cal BC (88% probability) or 5170–5075 cal BC (7% probability), is from a house that was expected to be contemporary with the Cris IV ceram- ics within it (Biagi et al. 2005.49). The painted vessel has been attributed to Vin≠a A2 (Lazarovici 2009.184–185; 2010. 115–116; 2014.16–18, Figs. 3, 5c), Vin≠a A2–A3 (Mazâre 2005.258, 288), or Star≠evo-Cris IV (Drasovean 2014.footnote 10). It appears to be a Lumea Noua import. The result is later than expected and has been reassigned to Vin≠a A3, although the publi- cation does not provide evidence of an association with Vin≠a A3 ceramics. This result is therefore not included in the modelling presented here (Suciu 2009.37). Similarly, the association between the cattle tibia dated by GrN-28994 (5760±40 BP, 4710– 4515 cal BC (95% probability) and the, probably earlier Vin≠a ceramics, recovered from Cauce Cave is unclear and this result is also not included in this analysis (Suciu 2009.67–9, Fig. 82, Annex 1). Three radiocarbon dates from Orăstie–Dealul Permilor (Deb-5762, 5825±60 BP, 4830–4535 cal BC (95% probability); Deb-5765, 6070±70 BP, 5210–4825 cal BC (94% probability) or 4815–4800 cal BC (1% probability); Deb-5775, 5790±55 BP, 4780–4515 cal BC (95% probability)) are again insecurely associated with Vin≠a pottery and are not modelled here (Luca 2003). Eight radiocarbon measurements are available from Cârcea Viaduct, although these samples cannot be associated with Vin≠a pottery at all (contra Mantu 2000.99; Biagi, Spataro 2005.37; Bln-1980, 6100±60 BP, 5215–4880 cal BC (93% probability) or 4870–4845 cal BC (2% probability); Bln-2008, 6550±40 BP, 5615–5585 cal BC (7% probability) or 5570–5465 cal BC (88% probability); Bln-2287, 6300±55 BP, 5465–5440 cal BC (2% probability) or 5425–5405 cal BC (1% probability) or 5385–5200 cal BC (86% probability) or 5170–5075 cal BC (7% probability); Bln-2289, 5910±55 BP, 4945–4680 cal BC (95% probability); Bln-2291, 5990±55 BP, 5005–4725 cal BC (95% probability); Bln-2292, 6350±60 BP, 5470–5220 cal BC (95% probability); Bln-2294, 5865±95 BP, 4965–4495 cal BC (95% probability); and Bln-2354, 5860±60 BP, 4850–4545 cal BC (95% probability)). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 16 Sava valley and tributaries The site of Lupljanica, with Vin≠a pottery, is located in the valley of the Bosna River, one of the main tributaries of the Sava in central Bosnia. A single sample of unidentified charcoal was dated from the lowest level of a house structure, 1.3m below the surface (Breunig 1987.107; Crane, Griffin 1972. 190–191), and provides a terminus post quem of 4910–3985 cal BC (M-2455; 95% probability), prob- ably 4705–4255 cal BC (68% probability) for the end of Vin≠a D. The Neolithic tell at Gornja Tuzla is located on the slopes of Mt. Majevica in the upper part of the Jala river catchment. It was discovered in 1949 and is estimated to be between 12 and 15ha in size. Exca- vations were undertaken over four seasons between 1955 and 1958 (∞ovi≤ 1961.79–139). Five radio- carbon measurements associated with Vin≠a period activity have been published, but only two have robust ceramic associations10. These are measure- ments on unidentified charcoal found in association with Vin≠a C pottery that provide termini post quos for this pottery of 4535–4330 cal BC (GrN-1974; 95% probability) or 4460–4355 cal BC (68% probability) and of 4780–4355 cal BC (Bln-349; 95% probability) or 4685–4455 cal BC (68% probability). The multi-period tell at Gomolava is in Vojvodina, Serbia, on the east bank of the river Sava. It was first detected in 1898, and small-scale excavations were undertaken in 1904–1908. The first systematic excavations took place between 1953 and 1985, with approximately half a hectare investigated (Gi- ri≤ 1988.13; Brukner 1980; 1988). This yielded a number of prehistoric occupation horizons ranging from the late Neolithic to late Iron Age. However, the site is best known for its late Vin≠a necropolis (Bori≤ 1996; Jovanovi≤ 2015), one of only very few discovered thus far in the Balkans. Fifteen samples are on unidentified charcoal and may have contained material with an old-wood off- set; the other 17 samples are on short-lived materi- als (two bulk samples of carbonised cereal grain, four human burials, and 11 animal bones; Waterbolk 1988.Beilage 1; Orton 2012.Tab. 2; Bori≤ 2009.Tab. 5). A model for the dated Vin≠a activity at Gomolava has good overall agreement between the radiocar- bon dates and the stratigraphic information (Amo- del: 80; Fig. 12), only if three dates that fall in the early Bronze Age are excluded as outliers (all con- sidered to be intrusive from later phases of activi- ty: GrN-7373, GrN-7375 and OxA-21132). The model presented in Fig. 12 suggests that Vin≠a C started at Gomolava in 5005–4845 cal BC (95% probability; Start Gomolava C; Fig. 12), probably in 4955–4875 cal BC (68% probability); the boundary between phases C and D occurred in 4810–4720 cal BC (95% probability; Gomolava C/D; Fig. 12), prob- ably in 4790–4735 cal BC (68% probability); and 10 Three further measurements have been obtained from more recent excavations at Gornja Tuzla (Vander Linden et al. 2014). OxA-23297 (6165±34 BP, 5220–5015 cal BC (95% probability)) on a large mammal bone from layer 15 does not appear to be securely associated with a diagnostic ceramic assemblage. Two further statistically consistent measurements (OxA-23298, 5827±33 BP, 4785–4590 cal BC (95% probability) and OxA-23299, 5741±33 BP, 4690–4500 cal BC (95% probability): T’ = 3.4; ν = 1; T’(5%) = 3.8) were obtained on different species of animal bone (Bos taurus and Cervus elaphus) from layer 8. These samples also have no known direct ceramic associations. Fig. 11. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Miercurea Sibiului-Petris. The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 17 phase D ended here in 4670–4500 cal BC (95% probability; End Gomolava D; Fig. 12), probably in 4635–4550 cal BC (68% probability). The Neolithic settlement at Petnica is located in the Kolubara valley area in western Serbia, on a slope running up to a north-facing cliff. A cave in this cliff was also occupied in this period. The site has been excavated on several occasions, yielding three late Neolithic occupation phases and several Vin≠a-peri- od wattle and daub structures (Starovi≤ 1993). Seven radiocarbon dates have been obtained on ani- mal bone samples from occupation features at Pet- nica (Bori≤ 2009.Tab. 6; Orton 2012.Tab. 2). The model for the dated activity at Petnica has good over- Fig. 12. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Gomolava. Distributions for GrN-7373, GrN- 7375, and OxA-21132, which are considered to derive from post-Neolithic activity, are not shown. Grey tone indicates that the sample has a possible old-wood offset. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 18 all agreement (Amodel: 94; Fig. 13), if we interpret Pit 3 as being cut from above the level of House 3 and if we interpret the animal bone from House 2 as residual. We follow the ceramic phasing for Pet- nica published by David Orton (2012). This model suggests that phase B2 at Petnica start- ed in 5050–4850 cal BC (95% probability; Start Petnica B2; Fig. 13), probably in 4995–4900 cal BC (68% probability); the boundary between phases B2 and C occurred in 4965–4850 cal BC (95% proba- bility; Petnica B2/C; Fig. 13), probably in 4940– 4880 cal BC (68% probability); the boundary bet- ween phases C and D occurred in 4950–4845 cal BC (95% probability; Petnica C/D; Fig. 13), probably in 4925–4860 cal BC (68% probability) and the dated sequence ended in 4935–4735 cal BC (95% proba- bility; End Petnica D; Fig. 13), probably in 4900– 4800 cal BC (68% probability). The site of Masinske Njive is located in western Ser- bia on a tributary of the Kolubara River. The site was originally recorded in the 1960s and was exca- vated in full between 2006 and 2009 in advance of coal mining. A single phase Vin≠a settlement was excavated, which produced Vin≠a B1/B2 ceramics (M. Spasi≤, pers. comm.). Three radiocarbon measurements have been ob- tained on samples of animal bone from settlement features. A model for the dated activity at this site has good overall agreement (Amodel: 100; Fig. 14), and indicates that this activity began in 5705–5085 cal BC (95% probability; Start Masinske B; Fig. 14), probably in 5355–5215 cal BC (68% probability), and ended in 5300–4700 cal BC (95% probability; End Masinske B; Fig. 14), probably in 5275–5070 cal BC (68% probability). Barely 500m west of Masinske Njive, on an elevated terrace above the same tributary of the Kolubara Ri- ver, lay the early Vin≠a A site of Jari≠i∏te 1. Although the site was recorded in the 1960s, it was only exca- vated between 2006 and 2010 and has since been destroyed by the Kolubara coal mine (Mari≤ 2013). The early Vin≠a settlement featured several dozen pits, some containing ovens, although no wattle and daub structures were detected. A single flax seed was dated from pit 1.137, which contained an assemblage of Vin≠a A pottery, indi- cating that these ceramics date to 5320–5205 cal BC (88% probability; NOSAMS-78623) or 5165–5135 cal BC (3% probability) or 5130–5115 cal BC (1% proba- bility) or 5110–5075 cal BC (3% probability), prob- ably in 5300–5240 cal BC (53% probability) or 5235– 5215 cal BC (15% probability). The Belgrade area The tell site of Belo Brdo at Vin≠a just east of Bel- grade forms the type-site for the development of Vin≠a pottery. The 8m of Neolithic deposits have been excavated almost constantly since 1908, when Vasi≤ began large scale excavations. The massive assemblage of pottery from these excavations has been the subject of a series of seminal typological Fig. 13. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Petnica. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 19 studies (Fig. 2), the sequence through the tell pro- viding relative chronology for the schemes suggest- ed. As part of the The Times of Their Lives project, major new programmes of radiocarbon dating have been undertaken on the Vasi≤ sequence (Tasi≤ et al. 2016a), the excavations of the upper levels in Sector II (Tasi≤ et al. 2015) and the sequence from a new deep sounding excavated between 2004–2014 (Ta- si≤ et al. 2016b). Most relevant to the chronology of Vin≠a ceramics is the model presented by Tasi≤ et alii (2016a.Fig. 17) for the sequence of deposits excavated by Milo- je Vasi≤, as these excavations covered a larger area than those of all subsequent excavations combined and consequently produced by far the largest assem- blage of Vin≠a pottery. This is a Poisson process age- depth model with the rigidity of the process defined as the 10cm spits used by Vasi≤ to excavate the tell and record the recovered finds (Bronk Ramsey 2008; Bronk Ramsey, Lee 2013). The typological scheme for Vin≠a pottery published by Miloj≠i≤ (1943) used in this study was based on the published ceramics from this archive recorded by these spits. The age- depth model thus explicitly estimates their dates. Miloj≠i≤ phase A occurs between 9.3m and 8.0m, phase B1 between 8.0m and 7.0m, phase B2 between 7.0m and 6.0m, phase C between 6.0m and 4.0m, and phase D from 4.0m to the top of Vin≠a cultural layers at 1.3m. On this basis, at Belo Brdo Miloj≠i≤ phase A begins in 5305–5255 cal BC (95% probability; Belo Brdo start A; Fig. 15), probably in 5300–5270 cal BC (68% probability). The transition between Miloj≠i≤ A and B1 occurs in 5210–5135 cal BC (95% proba- bility; Belo Brdo A/B1; Fig. 15), probably in 5200– 5165 cal BC (68% probability). The shift between Miloj≠i≤ B1 and B2 occurs in 5115–5040 cal BC (95% probability; Belo Brdo B1/B2; Fig. 15), prob- ably in 5090–5055 cal BC (68% probability). The transition between Miloj≠i≤ B2 and C happens in 4935–4850 cal BC (95% probability; Belo Brdo B2/ C; Fig. 15), probably in 4920–4875 cal BC (68% probability). The transition between Miloj≠i≤ phases C and D occurs in 4765–4680 cal BC (95% proba- bility; Belo Brdo C/D; Fig. 15), probably in 4760– 4735 cal BC (12% probability) or 4725–4690 cal BC (56% probability). Miloj≠i≤ (1943) placed the end of his phase D at 2.5m at Belo Brdo, but the accumulation of Vin≠a ceramics within the deposits of Belo Brdo continues up to a depth of 1.3m, until 4570–4460 cal BC (95% probability; Belo Brdo end D; Fig. 15), probably in 4550–4495 cal BC (68% probability). The presence of Vin≠a D ceramics above relative depth of 2.5m at Belo Brdo was confirmed by exca- vations in Sector II undertaken between 1998 and 2009, where such ceramics occur until 4550–4485 cal BC (95% probability; fire 2; Tasi≤ et al. 2015. Fig. 8), probably in 4545–4505 cal BC (68% prob- ability). This date estimate for the end of Vin≠a D at Belo Brdo is completely independent of that pro- vided by the age-depth model of the Vasi≤ sequence, but the medians of these probability distributions vary by just three years. The chronological model- ling of the new sounding provides much greater detail on the structural narrative of the tell but, given the small area excavated and the small quan- tity of material recovered, this area does not add materially to our understanding of Vin≠a ceramics. The late Neolithic flat settlement at Opovo is locat- ed on a low knoll overlooking a then active mean- der of the Tami∏ River, about 25km north of Bel- grade. During the 1980s five seasons of excavation recorded a total area of 340m2 (Tringham et al. 1985; 1992), yielding three successive building hori- zons associated with late Vin≠a C and early Vin≠a D ceramics. Thirteen radiocarbon measurements are available on animal bone (Orton 2012.Tab. 2) and unidentified Fig. 14. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Masinske Njive. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 20 charcoal (Tab. 2) from a sequence of building hori- zons (BH2 and 3) and associated pits. All 13 dates are in good agreement with the site stratigraphy and phasing, and the model has good overall agreement (Amodel: 115; Fig. 16). The model indicates that activity associated with Vin≠a C pottery at Opovo began in 4960–4805 cal BC (95% probability; Start Opovo C; Fig. 16), prob- ably in 4915–4840 cal BC (68% probability), and that the use of Vin≠a C pottery on the site ended in 4835–4695 cal BC (95% probability; End Opovo C; Fig. 16), probably in 4820–4740 cal BC (68% prob- ability). It should be noted that there are currently no radiocarbon dates for the latest building horizon (BH 1) at Opovo and so settlement certainly contin- ued after this time. Located in the south-east suburb of Belgrade of the same name, the site of Banjica is a well-known late Neolithic settlement. It was situated on a plateau above the Banjica stream and was discovered during road construction in 1921 (Todorovi≤, Cermanovi≤ 1961). The site has yielded five settlement horizons of wattle-and-daub structures and pits associated with Vin≠a D ceramics (Tripkovi≤ 2007). Two statistically consistent measurements (T’ = 0.1; T’(5%) = 3.8; ν = 1; Ward, Wilson 1978) on bulk unidentified charcoal (one including charred grain) were obtained for features from Banjica associated with Vin≠a D pottery (Tab. 2). These provided ter- mini post quos for the end of Vin≠a D here of 4770– 4755 cal BC (1% probability) or 4730–4355 cal BC (94% probability; GrN-1542), probably 4680–4635 Fig. 15. Probability distributions of Miloj≠i≤ (1943) ceramic phase boundaries at Vin≠a-Belo Brdo, derived from the model illustrated in Tasi≤ et alii (2016a.Fig. 17). Fig. 16. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Opovo. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Grey tone indicates that the sample has a possible old-wood offset. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 21 cal BC (13% probability) or 4620–4455 cal BC (55% probability), and 4795–4320 cal BC (GrN-1536, 95% probability), probably 4655– 4640 cal BC (2% prob- ability) or 4620–4365 cal BC (66% probability)11. Central Serbia12 Located in central Serbia, south-west of Kragujevac, the settlement site of Grivac lies on the east bank of the Gru∫a River, on a wide terrace bounded by sev- eral streams. A chance discovery in 1950, it was exca- vated episodically between 1952 and 1994 (Bogda- novi≤ 2004). The earliest phase of occupation has Star≠evo pottery, and pre-dates a settlement associ- ated with Vin≠a ceramics of phases A–C, which is itself sealed by an early Iron Age barrow cemetery (Bogdanovi≤ 1977). Six radiocarbon dates, all on samples of unidentified bulk charcoal or ‘burnt earth’, can be associated with assemblages of Vin≠a ceramics (Tab. 2). Bln-870 pro- vides a terminus post quem for the end of Vin≠a A of 5480–5040 cal BC (95% probability), probably of 5470–5400 cal BC (12% probability) or 5390–5205 cal BC (56% probability). The latest of the five dates associated with Vin≠a C ceramics13 provides a termi- nus post quem for the end of Vin≠a C of 4960–4530 cal BC (95% probability; tpq Grivac C; Fig. 17), probably of 4880–4680 cal BC (64% probability) or 4640–4615 cal BC (4% probability). The site of Divostin (II) is situated in central Serbia, west of the town of Kragujevac, and on a slope bet- ween two streams in a landscape dominated by gen- tle hills. Small-scale excavations took place between 1967 and 1970 covering 1.65% of the estimated total site area of 15ha (McPherron, Srejovi≤ 1988). The earliest occupation on the site is associated with Star- ≠evo pottery, but the majority of the excavated fea- tures belong to a later settlement defined by wattle and daub rectangular structures associated with late Vin≠a pottery. Eleven radiocarbon dates were obtained on samples (seven unidentified bulk charcoal, one ‘burnt earth’ and three single animal bones) from a sequence of houses and pits associated with Vin≠a C and D pot- tery (Tab. 1). Two dates on bulk charcoal (Bln-867 and BM-574) are far too young for their stratigraph- ic position within the described sequence, and have been excluded from the model. These samples prob- ably contained a component of intrusive charcoal. The remaining nine measurements include two sets of replicates (repeat measurements on the same bulk sample). Two measurements on unidentified charcoal from pit F117 are statistically consistent (Bln-865 and Bln-865a; T’ = 0.2; T’(5%) = 3.8; ν = 1), as are three measurements, also on unidentified char- coal, from pit 20 (F121) (Z-336a, Z-336b and Bln- 898; T’ = 2.1; T’(5%) = 6.0; ν = 2). The model which combines these radiocarbon dates with the ceramic phasing has good overall agree- ment (Amodel: 113; Fig. 18), although all the sam- ples that can be associated with Vin≠a C ceramics are of unidentified charcoal and so only provide ter- mini post quos for the end of this phase. This model suggests that the transition between Vin≠a C and D ceramics at Divostin occurred in 4830–4600 cal BC (95% probability; Divostin C/D; Fig. 18), probably 4740–4635 cal BC (68% probability) and the use of Vin≠a D ceramics ended in 4710–4320 cal BC (95% probability; End Divostin D; Fig. 18), probably 4675– 4535 cal BC (68% probability). The Morava valley and southwards The site of Anzabegovo is located in the eastern part of FYR of Macedonia, in an area known as Ov≠e Pole. It was discovered by chance during the construction of a railway line in the early 1960s, with the main excavations taking place in 1969 and 1970 (Gimbu- tas 1974). The multi-period settlement was first es- tablished in the early Neolithic, with activity on site occurring into the Roman period. Two statistically consistent measurements (LJ-2329 and LJ-2411: T’ = 1.0; T’(5%) = 3.8; ν = 1) on uniden- tified bulk charcoal were obtained for features asso- ciated with Vin≠a B pottery (Tab. 2). Given the poten- tial for the sample to have contained a component of old wood, LJ-2329 provides a terminus post quem for the presence of Vin≠a B ceramics at Anzabegovo of 5320–5025 cal BC (95% probability), probably of 5300–5205 cal BC (39% probability) or 5165–5115 cal BC (17% probability) or 5110–5075 cal BC (11% probability). 11 A third measurement is quoted by N. N. Tasi≤ (1988.46) as ‘GrN *** 5320±150 BP’, but no further details can be traced. The Groningen laboratory has no record of this measurement, and so it was certainly produced elsewhere. It calibrates to 4455– 3890 cal BC (90% probability) or 3885–3795 cal BC (5% probability). 12 Two measurements have been published by Gimbutas (1976.Tab. IV) as being from Medvednjak in central Serbia. Bln-480, how- ever, is from Ószentiván, Hungary (Kohl, Quitta 1970.411) and LJ-2523 is from πventoji, Lithuania (Linick 1977.27). 13 Z-1507 is clearly much later than the other samples from this phase and has been excluded from this analysis; it is likely that the bulk sample contained an element of intrusive later charcoal. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 22 The site of Belovode in Veliko Laole lies to the west of River Mlava, on one of its smaller tributaries. It was discovered by chance in the 1960s. The settle- ment was located on an ellipsoid plateau, barely 10km to the east of the Velika Morava River, and is cut in half by a small stream named Belovode (πlji- var, Jacanovi≤ 1996). The site is multi-period, with the earliest habitation occurring during the Star≠evo period, followed by a longer phase of late Neolithic Vin≠a occupation and ending in the Late Bronze Age. The first systematic excavations took place in 1994 and continued episodically until 2015. Nine radiocarbon dates were obtained on samples of single animal bones and antlers from a sequence of houses and associated features with Vin≠a A to C pot- tery (Bori≤ 2009; Tab. 2). One date (OxA-14678) from the top of the sequence is far too late and almost certainly belongs to a later phase of activity and is excluded from the model. Three dates (OxA-14680, –14 683 and –14 700), with poor individual agree- ment with their relative stratigraphic positions, work well with the model presented in Figure 19 if treated as termini post quos (interpreted as residual animal bone within their respective contexts). If this interpretation is applied then the model, based on the stratigraphy, pottery phasing (A to C) and the radiocarbon dates, has good overall agreement (Amodel: 102; Fig. 19). The model indicates that the activity, associated with Vin≠a A to C pottery, started at Belovode in 5795– 5230 cal BC (95% probability; Start Belovode A; Fig. 19), probably in 5515–5310 cal BC (68% proba- bility); that the transition from Vin≠a A to B occurred in 5365–5075 cal BC (95% probability; Belovode A/B; Fig. 19), probably in 5320–5165 cal BC (68% probability); that the transition from Vin≠a B to C occurred in 5150–4645 cal BC (95% probability; Belovode B/C; Fig. 19), probably in 5050–4735 cal Fig. 17. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Grivac. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Grey tone indicates that the sample has a possible old-wood offset. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Fig. 18. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Divostin. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Grey tone indicates that the sample has a possible old-wood offset. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 23 BC (68% probability). The use of Vin≠a C ceramics at Belovode ended in 4775–4205 cal BC (95% pro- bability; End Belovode C; Fig. 19), probably in 4705– 4495 cal BC (68% probability). Located in a village west of the town of Prokuplje, the site of Plo≠nik lies on an elevated terrace of the Toplica River. It was discovered in the 1920s during the construction of a railway line and was excavated episodically until 2013 (Stalio 1964; 1973). The site is best known for the find of approx. 17kg of copper implements excavated from buildings and hoards associated with a late phase of Vin≠a culture (πljivar et al. 2010). Eight radiocarbon measurements, all on single ani- mal bones, were obtained for features associated with houses within the settlement (Tab. 2). The dated features contained Vin≠a B pottery and ‘Gra- dac’ pottery. In this area the site begins with the use of Vin≠a B1 (D. πljivar, pers. comm.), and all the dated samples are from contexts below the ‘Gradac’ layer except for OxA-14685 (Bori≤ 2009.Figs. 22– 23). Samples from sequences of deposits were dated in trenches 14 and 15, and all the radiocarbon dates are in good agreement with these stratigraphic se- quences and the pottery phasing (Amodel: 102; Fig. 20). The first use of Vin≠a B1 ceramics at Plo≠nik occurr- ed in 5350–5060 cal BC (95% probability; Start Plo≠nik B1; Fig. 20), probably in 5240–5110 cal BC (68% probability). Vin≠a B ceramics ended here in 5030–4755 cal BC (95% probability; End Plo≠nik B2; Fig. 20) probably in 4985–4860 cal BC (68% probability). Trench 16 contained features associated with ‘Gradac’ pottery. A single radiocarbon sample associated with this ceramic phase provides a termi- nus ante quem for the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase C and a terminus post quem for the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase D at Plo≠nik of 4710–4530 cal BC (95% probability; OxA-14685; Tab. 2), probably of 4685–4630 cal BC (31% probability) or 4625–4555 cal BC (37% prob- ability). The site of Ore∏kovica lies on a hill dominating the surrounding territory around the village of the same name. It is approx. 6ha in size, and is surrounded by at least two enclosure ditches. It is a single-phase set- tlement associated with Vin≠a B pottery. Even though it was known by the mid-1970s it was only excavat- ed for the first time in 2013 (Bori≤ et al. in prepa- ration). Six radiocarbon dates, all on single samples of ani- mal bone (two of them articulating) are currently available (Tab. 2). A model combining these results Fig. 19. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Belovode. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 24 with the stratigraphic sequence is shown in Fig. 21, and has good overall agreement (Amodel: 105; Fig. 21). This suggests that the settlement at Ore∏kovica (and so Vin≠a B ceramics) began in 5400–5080 cal BC (95% probability; Start Ore∏kovica B; Fig. 21), probably in 5335–5210 cal BC (67% probability) or 5165–5155 cal BC (1% probability), and ended in 5215–4935 cal BC (95% probability; End Ore∏- kovica B; Fig. 21), probably in 5200–5180 cal BC (4% probability) or 5165–5030 cal BC (64% prob- ability). Selevac-Staro Selo site lies in the πumadija area, to the west of the lowest part of the Velika Morava River valley, barely 22km south of its confluence with the Danube (Tringham, Krsti≤ 1990a). The site is located 4.8km east of the modern village of the same name on elevated ground west of the river. The site was recognised in 1968, with small-scale excavations taking place until 1970 and again in 1973. The Selevac Archaeological Project ran from 1976 until 1981, and yielded settlement remains of the Late Neolithic Vin≠a period. Twelve radiocarbon dates for Selevac were obtained on samples (bulk charcoal and bulk cereal grain) from a sequence of houses and associated features with Vin≠a B1 to C pottery (Tab. 2). We have used the ceramic phasing for this sequence presented by Schier (1995.Figs. 144–5), although unfortunately all the dates associated with Vin≠a B2 and C ceram- ics are on unidentified charcoal and so can only be included in the model as termini post quos. This model is shown in Fig. 22, which has good agree- ment (Amodel: 100). Generally, measurements from the Rudjer Bo∏kovi≤ Institute, Zagreb, are likely to Fig. 20. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Plo≠nik. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Fig. 21. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Ore∏kovica. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 25 be on average 77 years too young (Horvatin≠i≤ et al. 1990.299). In this case, however, it can be noted that the two measurements in question (Z-233a–b) are statistically consistent with a third from La Jolla (LJ-2521; T’ = 0.4; T’(5%) = 6.0; ν = 2) and so they are probably accurate. The model indicates that this activity, associated with Vin≠a B1 pottery, started in 6800–6685 cal BC (2% probability; Start Selevac B1; Fig. 22) or 6340–4960 cal BC (93% probability), probably in 5525–5010 cal BC (68% probability). The transition between Vin≠a B1 and B2 occurred here in 5210–3585 cal BC (95% probability; Selevac B1/B2; Fig. 22), prob- ably in 5165–4655 cal BC (68% probability). The dated occupation at Selevac ended in 4580–2460 cal BC (78% probability; End Selevac C; Fig. 22) or 2195–1495 cal BC (17% probability), probably in 4565–3190 cal BC (61% probability) or 1770–1495 cal BC (7% probability). The site of Predionica is located in a suburb of Pri∏- tina in Kosovo. It was excavated in 1955 and 1956 in advance of the construction of a factory building. It yielded a late Neolithic settlement with three build- ing horizons (Galovi≤ 1959). A single sample of oak charcoal was dated from a fire installation associat- ed with Vin≠a A ceramics, and provides a terminus post quem of 5470–5400 cal BC (6% probability; Bln-435) or 5390–5045 cal BC (89% probability), probably of 5360–5205 cal BC (57% probability) or 5165–5135 cal BC (5% probability) or 5130–5115 cal BC (2% probability) or 5110–5100 cal BC (1% probability) or 5095–5075 cal BC (3% probability) for the end of Vin≠a A at this location. The site of Vala≠ is located in the north-west part of Kosovo, near the town of Kosovska Mitrovica. The site is located on a terraced hill on the edge of the Ibar River valley, and it appears to have been defended by a palisade and a stone wall (N. Tasi≤ 1960). It was excavated briefly in 1957. A single mea- surement on a bulk sample of charred acorns and peas from a pit associated with Vin≠a D ceramics dates this assemblage to 4960–4545 cal BC (95% probability; Bln-436), probably to 4900–4865 cal BC (7% probability) or 4855–4685 cal BC (61% proba- bility). Beran Kr∏ is located on a dominant ridge on the left bank of the river Lim, approx. 3km from the town of Berane in Montenegro. Small test trenches were dug in 1961, but the main research excavations were undertaken in 1975 and 1976. The settlement con- sisted of several building horizons belonging to the Vin≠a period (Markovi≤ 1985). Two measurements on unidentified bulk charcoal are available from two stratigraphically related depo- sits (Tab. 2). The published contextual details, how- Fig. 22. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Selevac. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Grey tone indicates that the sample has a possible old-wood offset. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 26 ever, differ. Z-491 is attributed to Level VII and Z- 492 to Level XIII (Srdo≠ et al. 1977.474), but also to Levels III and IV/Horizon IIa (Markovi≤ 1985.70). Here, we follow ∞edomir Markovi≤ (1985.72) in in- terpreting both dates as termini post quos for the end of Vin≠a C ceramics at this location, of 5205– 5165 cal BC (2% probability; Z-491) or 5075–4765 cal BC (93% probability), probably of 5000–4840 cal BC (68% probability), and of 5210–5160 cal BC (1% probability; Z-492) or 5080–4440 cal BC (92% prob- ability) or 4425–4370 cal BC (2% probability), prob- ably of 4930–4920 cal BC (1% probability) or 4910– 4545 cal BC (67% probability). It should be noted that both measurements are from the Rudjer Bo∏ko- vi≤ Institute, Zagreb, and it is likely that the mea- surements are on average 77 radiocarbon years too young (Horvatin≠i≤ et al. 1990.299). The site of Donje Vranje in the southern Morava val- ley was excavated in advance of road construction in June 2013 (Kapuran et al. 2016). Several pits con- taining Vin≠a B2 ceramics were recorded. A single radiocarbon date on a disarticulated animal bone was dated from pit 1, providing a date of 5295–5240 cal BC (9% probability; SUERC-57927) or 5235–5050 cal BC (86% probability), probably of 5220–5200 cal BC (10% probability) or 5175–5070 cal BC (58% probability) for the use of Vin≠a B2 ceramics on the site. The Danube downstream of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo A single sample of unidentified charcoal has been dated from pit 21 at Gornea, providing a terminus post quem of 4895–4865 cal BC (2% probability; BM-1124) or 4850–4585 cal BC (93% probability), probably of 4825–4815 cal BC (3% probability) or 4805–4685 cal BC (65% probability) for the associ- ated assemblage of Vin≠a A ceramics (Burleigh, Hew- son 1979.350). A bulk sample of charred grain from Liubcova (László 1997) has been dated from a con- text associated with Vin≠a B2 pottery, dating it to 5320–4905 cal BC (95% probability; Bln-2133), probably to 5225–5000 cal BC (68% probability). The site of Rudna Glava is located in the village of the same name on a steep slope above it. The loca- tion is about 20km south of the Danube in the area of the Iron Gorge (Jovanovi≤ 1982). Rudna Glava is best known for its early copper metallurgy and was the first copper ore mine to be excavated in the Bal- kans. Discovered in the mid-1960s, the first archaeo- logical survey took place in 1968, followed by sev- eral seasons of excavations which uncovered multi- ple prehistoric shafts cut vertically into the cliff face. Fourteen radiocarbon measurements are available on samples from Rudna Glava (Bori≤ 2009.Tab. 1; Burleigh et al. 1982.255), but only eight of these appear to be associated with Vin≠a ceramics14. These have been assigned to the Gradac phase (Jovanovi≤ 1982; 1994) which here we equate broadly with Mi- loj≠i≤ phases C and D. The relationships between the dated material and the ceramics, however, are not straightforward. The deposition of hoards in which the best preserved and diagnostically most sensitive vessels were found was probably structured and possibly ritualised. This may have taken place after a long period of use of the mining shafts, and it is also possible that the hoards represent an accumu- lation over time rather than single events. In these circumstances, we have interpreted the start of the period when Vin≠a ceramics were deposited at Rud- na Glava as a terminus post quem for the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase C, and the end of the period when Vin≠a ceramics were deposited at Rudna Glava as a terminus post quem for the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase D. A model for the mining activities at Rudna Glava associated with Vin≠a C and D pottery is shown in Figure 23. A weighted mean has been taken on the statistically consistent measurements on antler RG8 before incorporation in the model (OxA-14624–5; T’ = 0.2, T’(5%) = 3.8, ν = 1), which has good over- all agreement (Amodel: 97; Fig. 23). This suggests that Vin≠a C ceramics appeared here after 5745– 5240 cal BC (95% probability; tpq Rudna Glava C; Fig. 23), probably after 5505–5325 cal BC (68% probability), and suggests that Vin≠a D ceramics were last deposited here after 4920–4445 cal BC (95% probability; tpq Rudna Glava D; Fig. 23), prob- ably after 4870–4685 cal BC (68% probability). 14 Three measurements (BM-1589, 6900±1000 BP, 8640–3780 cal BC (95% probability); OxA-14623, 7198±36 BP, 6205–6135 cal BC (8% probability) or 6115–5995 cal BC (87% probability); OxA-14627, 6665±36 BP, 5645–5520 cal BC (95% probability)) appear to indicate use of the mining complex in the earlier part of the seventh millennium cal BC. The collagen in all these samples, how- ever, was poorly preserved and so there must be some doubt over the accuracy of these dates. One further sample appears to indicate further use of the mines in the Copper Age (OxA-14676, 4273±32 BP, 3005–2990 cal BC (1% probability) or 2930– 2865 cal BC (91% probability) or 2805–2775 cal BC (3% probability)). Two of the Vin≠a period dates do not appear to be associ- ated with ceramics and are not included in the model presented here (OxA-16585, 5816±35BP, 4780–4550 cal BC (95% proba- bility); OxA-14699, 5974±39 BP, 4975–4765 cal BC (94% probability) or 4755–4740 cal BC (1% probability)). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 27 A timescape for Vin≠a pottery We begin by constructing a chronological model, in which the use of Vin≠a ceramics forms a continuous and relatively constant phase of activity, opening with the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase A and ending with the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase D (Fig. 24). The start of Mi- loj≠i≤ phase A is constrained to be earlier than the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase B1 in this model; the start of B1 is constrained to be earlier than the start of B2; the start of B2 is constrained to be earlier than the start of C; and the start of C is constrained to be ear- lier than the start of D. The start of phase B (sites where we are unsure whether the ceramics are phase B1 or B2) is also constrained to be later than the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase A. Since we are uncertain whether the transition from one phase to the next happened at the same time everywhere, we have not constrained the end of phase A to be earlier than the start of phase B1, for example. We have howev- er constrained the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase A to be ear- lier than the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase C and the end of Miloj≠i≤ phases B1 and B2 (and the combined phase B) to be earlier than the start of Miloj≠i≤ phase D. We believe these constraints to be reasonable, since there appear to be no closed assemblages containing both Vin≠a A and Vin≠a C pottery, or both Vin≠a B and Vin≠a D pottery15. This approach means that we can examine whether there is any overlap between the use of ceramics assigned to successive phases in the Miljo≠i≤ scheme. Where there are more than three radiocarbon dates for a site, key parameters from the site-based mod- els described above are imported as likelihoods in the synthetic models. For example, in the model com- ponent relating to the currency of Vin≠a A ceramics (Fig. 25), Vin≠a Belo Brdo is represented by two parameters – Belo Brdo start A and Belo Brdo A/B1 – which means that the 19 radiocarbon measure- ments from samples recovered between the depths of 9.3m and 8.0m in the Vasi≤ sequence are not dis- proportionally weighted in the model in comparison with sites with fewer dates. Where there are one or two dates on short-lived materials securely associat- ed with a ceramic phase, these are included fully in the model (e.g., Deb-2579 from Satchinez; Fig. 25). In other cases, where there are one or two results on charred plant material that might have included a component of old wood, the dates are modelled as termini post quos for the end of the phase. These distributions are shown in grey (e.g., Bln-435, a sam- ple of oak charcoal from Predionica; Fig. 25). In a few cases, dates are clearly misfits, and have been excluded from the modelling (e.g., BM-1124, a sam- ple of unidentified charcoal from Gornea) which is more than 400 years later than any other sample associated with Vin≠a A ceramics and must have con- tained component of intrusive material. These dis- tributions are shown in red and the parameter name is followed by ‘?’. The overall form of this chronological model (Model 1) is illustrated in Fig. 24 with its components illus- trated in Figs. 25, 27, 29, 31–32 and 35. It is defined exactly by the CQL2 keywords and structure provid- ed as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_ Model_1.oxcal). Fig. 23. Probability distributions of radiocarbon dates from Rudna Glava. The format is identical to that of Figure 7. The large square brackets down the left-hand side along with the OxCal keywords define the overall model exactly. 15 As part of the preliminary modelling undertaken for this study, we constructed a model which included no relative sequence between the phases of Vin≠a ceramics. This model suggests that start A is earlier than start B1 (87% probable), that start B1 is earlier than start B2 (95% probable), that start B2 is earlier than start C (96% probable), and that start C is earlier than start D (88% probable). This model also suggests that end A is earlier than start C (96% probable), and that end B1 and end B2 are earlier than start D (85% and 62% probable respectively). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 28 The component of this model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a A ceramics is shown in Fig. 25. It sug- gests that this ceramic phase begun in 5405–5310 cal BC (95% probability; start A; Fig. 25), probably in 5365–5320 cal BC (68% probability). The use of Vin≠a A ceramics ended in 5205–5070 cal BC (95% probability; end A; Fig. 25), probably in 5200–5130 cal BC (68% probability). Vin≠a A ceramics were thus in use for a period of 125–295 years (95% proba- bility; duration A; Fig. 38), probably for 140–230 years (68% probability). The Vin≠a network appears to have been established very quickly – within the space of one or two human generations. Sites as widely spaced as Szederkény- Kukorica-dűlő and Belovode were probably founded in the generation before 5300 cal BC (Figs. 25 and 26). Other sites came into being over the succeeding century, including the Vin≠a settlement at Belo Brdo itself, which as suspected by Lazarovici (1979.105– 106, Tab. 7, 122–123) was not among the very first foundations. We have modelled radiocarbon dates from sites from the northern and the western peri- phery of the Vin≠a A network, as well as from its cen- tre. Although there are known sites with character- istic Vin≠a A forms in the southern and eastern peri- phery of the network, either they are lacking radio- carbon dates, or the association between pottery phases and radiocarbon dates is not secure. Current- ly Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő in the extreme north- west of the network is the earliest known dated site with Vin≠a ceramics (on present evidence it is 60% probable that it was established before Belovode: Fig. 25). It is not possible to disentangle the direc- tion of innovation without dating many more sites at the generational precision provided by ToTL at Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő, Versend and Belo Brdo. The network was established so quickly that we need to trace the foundations of different sites to within a few decades across the latter part of the 54th and the earlier part of the 53rd century cal BC. Recent formal modelling of the earliest (älteste) LBK, however, allows us to compare the date when the Vin≠a network was established with the time when LBK ceramics rapidly spread across much of north and north-west Europe. Jakucs et alii (2016. Figs. 17–22) present three alternative models for Fig. 24. Overall form of the chronological model for the phasing of Vin≠a pottery proposed by Miloj≠i≤ (1943) (Model 1). The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Components of this model are illustrated in Figs. 25, 27, 29, 31–32 and 35. The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure pro- vided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 29 the time when the LBK spread beyond the inital locus of its development in Transdanubia. Whatever the dating of its formative phase, all these models agree in placing this rapid expansion in the middle decades of the 54th century cal BC (Fig. 41). This is precisely the time when the first Vin≠a pottery was made. The potential implications of this are explored in the Discussion below. The component of the model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a B1 ceramics is shown in Fig. 27. It sug- gests that this ceramic phase begun in 5355–5195 cal BC (95% probability; start B1; Fig. 27), proba- bly in 5330–5245 cal BC (68% probability). The use of Vin≠a B1 ceramics ended in 5045–4800 cal BC (95% probability; end B1; Fig. 27), probably in 5040–4915 cal BC (68% probability). Vin≠a B1 cera- mics were thus in use for a period of 185–505 years (95% probability; duration B1; Fig. 38), probably for 230–395 years (68% probability). There is considerable uncertainty around the dating of Vin≠a B1 ceramics since, with the exception of Belo Brdo itself, all the sites are poorly dated. Such data as we have, however, are consistent with a rel- atively swift transition from Vin≠a A at the begin- ning of the 52nd century cal BC. There was a period of overlap (100% probable), as is reflected in Laza- rovici’s (1991.19–20, 27) phase A3/B1. This period of overlap lasted for 25–245 years (95% probabili- ty; A/B1; Fig. 39), probably for 70–185 years (68% probability). Fig. 25. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a A ceramics (key parameters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7 (grey tone indicates the sample has a possible old-wood offset; red indicates a distribution excluded from the model). The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 30 There is a marked increase in the density of sites producing Vin≠a B1 ceramics (Fig. 28) in compari- son to sites producing Vin≠a A ceramics (Fig. 26). It appears, however, that Vin≠a ceramics are no longer found upstream of the Danube confluence with the Tisza, although their continuing influence can be traced in the development of Sopot-type pottery. Sites with Vin≠a pottery are still found along the Ti- mis and Mures valleys. The component of the model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a B2 ceramics is shown in Fig. 29. It sug- gests that this ceramic phase began in 5295–5105 cal BC (95% probability; start B2; Fig. 29), proba- bly in 5285–5270 cal BC (3% probability), or in 5230–5130 cal BC (65% probability). The use of Vin≠a B2 ceramics ended in 4920–4770 cal BC (95% probability; end B2; Fig. 29), probably in 4905–4830 cal BC (68% probability). Vin≠a B2 ceramics were thus in use for a period of 220–470 years (95% pro- bability; duration B2; Fig. 38), probably for 270– 405 years (68% probability). Again there was clearly a period of overlap (100% probable) between Vin≠a B1 and Vin≠a B2 pottery. This period of overlap lasted for 90–425 years (95% probability; B1/B2; Fig. 39), probably for 130–310 years (68% probability). The number of sites producing Vin≠a B2 pottery is greater than those producing Vin≠a B1 pottery, and its distribution extends further to the west and south- east. Sites in the lower Tisza valley, however, appear no longer to have access to Vin≠a pottery (Fig. 30), perhaps because the Szahálhát network was expand- ing from the north at this time16. The spatial distrib- ution of the network appears to have reached its greatest extent in this phase (possibly in the later part of it, equivalent to Schier (1995) phase C1), spreading from Kalo∏evi≤ in the far west as far as Anzabegovo to the south-east and Ocna Sibilui to the north-east. The component of the model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a pottery which can only be assigned to Miloj≠i≤ phases B1 or B2 is shown in Figure 31. It suggests that this combined phase began in 5360– 5235 cal BC (95% probability; start B; Fig. 31), prob- ably in 5335–5275 cal BC (68% probability). This is entirely compatible with the estimated date for the Fig. 26. Map showing distri- bution of sites from which Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a A ceramics have been recorded (grey- tone is approximately the maximum spatial extent of Vin≠a ceramics of all phas- es). For sites with radiocar- bon dates see references in the text; for other sites see Marinkovi≤ 1995; 2006; Vi- lotijevi≤ 1965; Stalio 1970; Jovanovi≤ 1965; Tasi≤ 1958; 1965; Benac 1988; Lekovi≤ 1995; Ra∏ajski 1962; Jacano- vi≤ 1988; Suciu 2009; Joano- vi≤, Priki≤ 1978; Jacanovi≤, ∑or∂evi≤ 1990; Katunar 1988; Peri≤ 2006; Gara∏anin, Gara∏anin 1979; Bogdanovi≤ 1988a; Nikitovi≤ 1995; and Stankovi≤ 1988; 1989. Râpas is unpublished (A. Bărbat, pers. comm.)*. * We are aware of a number of sites in Bulgaria (e.g., Bulgarchevo) containing ceramic types which form part of the Vin≠a reper- toire. They also occur, however, more widely in the area to the east of the Vin≠a network and so cannot be considered to be exclu- sively diagnostic Vin≠a forms. This contrasts with sites (e.g., Satchinez) which contain diagnostic Vin≠a pottery in contexts mixed with other clearly non-Vin≠a forms. 16 The Szakálhát culture evolves during Vin≠a B1 along the middle Tisza area. At the time of Vin≠a B2 Szakálhát and the closely related Bucovăt group dominate south-east Hungary and the western part of the Romanian Banat, extending well into the Ser- bian Vojvodina (Goldman 1985.64–66; Horváth 1983.90; Goldman, Goldman-Szenaszky 1991.194). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 31 start of Miloj≠i≤ phase B1 presented above (Fig. 27). This combined phase ended in 5070–4770 cal BC (95% probability; end B; Fig. 31), probably in 5010– 4825 cal BC (68% probability). This posterior date estimate is entirely compatible with the estimated date for the end of Miloj≠i≤ phase B2 presented above (Fig. 29), but is considerably less precise. The component of the model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a C ceramics is shown in Fig. 32. One dis- tribution has been excluded from the model. This is the transition from Vin≠a C to Vin≠a D pottery at Pet- nica, which is 150 years earlier than the same tran- sition from anywhere else. This seems implausible, since Petnica is a small occupation site which is not even on one of the major rivers that clearly provid- ed the connectivity of the network; moreover, the stratigraphy of this site is not unproblematic (Orton 2012.16–20). Three distributions (shown in blue) for assemblages that can only be classified as either Vin- ≠a C or Vin≠a D are included as termini ante quos for the start of Vin≠a C. The model suggests that Vin- ≠a C began in 5115–4895 cal BC (95% probability; start C; Fig. 32), probably in 5020–4905 cal BC (68% probability). The use of Vin≠a C ceramics end- ed in 4620–4400 cal BC (95% probability; end C; Fig. 32), probably in 4550–4445 cal BC (68% prob- ability). Vin≠a C ceramics were thus in use for a peri- od of 325–650 years (95% probability; duration C; Fig. 38), probably for 390–555 years (68% proba- bility). Only the imprecisely dated sites at Belovode, Selevac and Gornja Tuzla suggest that Vin≠a C ceram- ics may have continued in use after 4700 cal BC. The distribution of sites producing Vin≠a C pottery (Fig. 33) is very similar to that of sites producing Vin≠a B2 pottery (Fig. 30). Vin≠a ceramics are still absent from sites in the lower reaches of the Tisza valley but appear to occur on more sites in the Ti- mis valley. Where we have been able to date the transition from Vin≠a B2 to Vin≠a C ceramics directly, the date esti- mates fall in a tight group in the generations around 4900 cal BC (Fig. 34). There was clearly an overlap between these two ceramic phases (100% probable). This period of overlap lasted for 20–260 years (95% probability; B2/C; Fig. 39), probably for 50–180 years (68% probability). The component of the model relating to the curren- cy of Vin≠a D ceramics is shown in Figure 35. It sug- gests that this ceramic phase began in 4870–4725 cal BC (95% probability; start D; Fig. 35), probably in 4810–4740 cal BC (68% probability). The use of Vin≠a D ceramics ended in 4515–4360 cal BC (95% probability; end D; Fig. 35), probably in 4490–4415 cal BC (68% probability). Vin≠a D ceramics were thus in use for a period of 250–455 years (95% pro- bability; duration D; Fig. 38), probably for 285–390 years (68% probability). The distribution of sites with Vin≠a D ceramics is clearly concentrated to the south of the Danube with only a few sites in the southern Banat appearing on the north bank (Fig. 36). No pure Vin≠a D assem- blages occur in Transylvania but it seems that the Fig. 27. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a B1 ceramics (key parameters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7. The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 32 distribution of this type of pottery reaches the Sofia basin to the east. Vin≠a D ceramics began after Vin≠a C pottery had first appeared, and endured for longer (100% prob- able) (Fig. 37). Vin≠a C ceramics may have been in use for most of the currency of Vin≠a D types, if the late dating of Vin≠a C at Belovode, Selevac and Gor- nja Tuzla is robust (Fig. 32). The majority of dated sites came to an end in the 46th or the earlier part of the 45th century cal BC (Fig. 35). A summary of the dating of the phases of Vin≠a pot- tery suggested by Miloj≠i≤ (1943) is shown in Figure 37. Vin≠a pottery was clearly in use across a wide area from the mid-54th century cal BC to the mid- 45th century cal BC. Each of these phases endured for several centuries, Vin≠a A being the briefest and Vin≠a C being the longest (Fig. 38). Successive phases routinely over- lapped by a century or two (Fig. 39), but phases C and D overlapped by around 300 years. Either the connectivity of the network was loosening in the later centuries of its existence and there was more diversity in contemporary pottery forms, or our dat- ing of the latest sites with Vin≠a C ceramics (in par- ticular Belovode, Gornja Tuzla and Selevac) is anom- alous. The implications of this are discussed further below. Sensitivity analyses We further explore the robustness of the results from Model 1 by constructing an alternative model which treats the five Miloj≠i≤ phases as sequential and abutting (cf. Fig. 2). This means, for example, that there is no ending to phase A and no beginning to phase B1 but rather an abrupt transition from A to B1. The overall form of this model is illustrated in Fig. 40. The components of the model are similar to those illustrated in Figs. 25, 27, 29, 31–2 and 35 but where we have formal estimates for the dates of transitions at particular sites these have been com- bined in the model. The model is defined exactly by the CQL2 keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_2. oxcal). We must make clear from the outset that this alter- native model, Model 2, has poor overall agreement between the radiocarbon dates and the strict sequen- ce of non-overlapping abutting phases (Amodel: 4; Fig. 40). This means that it is statistically implausi- ble. Where the radiocarbon dates contradict the typological sequence is, however, enlightening and helps us to interpret the results of the preferred model. All the data in Miloj≠i≤ Phases A and B1 have good agreement with a strict sequence between them, and the two sites where we have been able to formally Fig. 28. Map showing distri- bution of sites from which Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a B1 ceramics have been recorded (grey- tone is approximately the maximum spatial extent of Vin≠a ceramics of all phas- es). For sites with radiocar- bon dates see references in the text; for other sites see Banner 1960; Grbi≤ 1950; Drasovean 1996; Suciu 2009; Gligor 2009; Lazarovici 1979; Marinkovi≤ 1995; 2006; Ba- bovi≤ 1992; Stalio 1970; Jo- anovi≤, Priki≤ 1978; Joano- vi≠ 1992; Jovanovi≤ 1965; Be- nac 1988; Marijanovi≤ 1988a; Mrkobrad 1982; Babovi≤ 1986; Jacanovi≤, ∑or∂evi≤ 1990; Jacanovi≤ 1988; Trbu- hovi≤, Vasiljevi≤ 1970; Gara- ∏anin, Gara∏anin 1955; 1958; 1979; Peri≤ 2006; Nikitovi≤ 1995; Bogdanovi≤ 1983; 1988a; Stankovi≤ 1989; Madas 1970; Valovi≤ 1983; 1987; Tasi≤ 1958; Krsti≤ 1959; Tomi≤, Vukadin 1969; Gara∏anin, Ivanovi≤ 1958. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 33 model the A/B1 boundary (at Belovode and Belo Br- do) have produced compatible date estimates for this transition (Acomb = 108, An = 50, n = 2). It seems likely therefore that the transition from Vin≠a A to B1 occurs relatively swiftly within the first decades of the 52nd century cal BC. Three distributions have poor agreement with a strict sequence between Miloj≠i≤ phases B1 and B2. MAMS-22668, an animal bone from Potporanj (A: 13), and SUERC-57927, an animal bone from a pit at Donje Vranje (A: 21), are both rather earlier than would be expected if the strict succession of Vin≠a B1 and B2 is valid everywhere. In Vin≠a B1, build H3d+c from Uivar is rather later than would be expected, on the same basis, for an assemblage of Vin≠a B1 ceramics. We note, however, that this Uivar assemblage is thought to be an imitation by local pot- ters of Vin≠a B1 types, and so the archetype of the imitation may not have been new when copied. A variant of Model 2, which excludes build H3d+c from Uivar, brings the dates from Potporanj and Do- nje Vranje into good agreement with the sequence (A: 87 and A: 88, respectively). The two sites where we have calculated the transition from B1 to B2 directly (Belo Brdo and Selevac) have produced date estimates that are compatible (Acomb = 106, An = 50, n = 2). On this basis, it again seems likely that the transition from Vin≠a B1 to B2 was relatively swift, in the decades around or just after 5100 cal BC17. All the data from Miloj≠i≤ phases B2 and C are com- patible with a strict sequence between them, and the three sites where we have been able to formal- ly model the B2/C transition (Petnica, Belo Brdo and Belovode) have produced date estimates that are also compatible (Acomb = 123, An = 41, n = 3). Model 2 therefore agrees with our inference from Model 1 (see Fig. 34) that this transition occurred swiftly in the decades around or slightly before 4900 cal BC. The data from Vin≠a C, however, are not compatible with a strict sequence to Vin≠a D. Posterior distributions for the end of Vin≠a C from Belovode (A: 56), Selevac (A: 2) and Gornja Tuzla (A: 0 and A: 47) are all later than would be expeted Fig. 29. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a B2 ceramics (key parameters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7. The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). 17 Early dates from Masinske Nijve and Ore∏kovica may perhaps impart caution as to the speed of this transition, since the poste- rior density estimates for the start of both sites, currently assigned only generally to Vin≠a B, have poor agreement (A: 10 and A: 40, respectively) with the strict succession from Vin≠a A to B. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 34 if Vin≠a C ceramics ceased to circulate at the time when Vin≠a D ceramics were first introduced. Of the three sites where we have formally modelled the C/ D transition (Gomolava, Belo Brdo and Divostin18), the date estimate for the transition at Gomolava is substantively earlier (by almost a century; A: 2) than the other two posterior distributions (Acomb = 76, An = 41, n = 3). It is not impossible that there was actually a swift transition from Vin≠a C to Vin≠a D in the first decades of the 47th century cal BC. The dates from Selevac and Gornja Tuzla were on conventional bulk samples of charred plant material that could have contained an element of intrusive, later mate- rial, although the date estimate from Gomolava appears to be robust, since it rests on no fewer than ten results on samples of animal bone (Fig. 12). If the earliest sample associated with Vin≠a D at Gomo- lava, OxA-14710, a bone tool, however, was resid- ual, then the estimated date of the transition here would shift more in line with those from Belo Brdo and Divostin. On the whole, however, the cumula- tive weight of these strands of evidence may be suf- ficient to indicate that there was really a consider- able overlap between the use of Vin≠a C and Vin≠a D ceramics. This has implications for the connectiv- ity of the cultural network in the final centuries of its existence. In conclusion, this sensitivity analysis suggests that, within the precision obtainable by the data that are currently available, the chest-of-drawers model of sequential ceramic phases is not importantly wrong, except perhaps in relation to the transition between Vin≠a C and Vin≠a D, where a significant period of concurrent use seems probable. Discussion Over 45 years later, the claim of Colin Renfrew (1970.53) that analysis of the development of the Vin≠a culture ‘represents one of the most challeng- ing tasks in European prehistory’ remains valid. In our introduction, we outlined many aspects of the Vin≠a culture, but here we are going to concentrate, first, on beginnings or origins, and secondly, on the character of the developed stages of the phenome- non. What insights do the better timings provided by formally modelled estimates provide? We need, first, to set out briefly the interpretive frame within which better timings can be interrogat- ed. As one of us has recently sketched (Bori≤ 2015. 159–162), three main approaches to the study of the Vin≠a culture can be identified in past research: culture-historical, processual and post-processual. Each of these has given rather different answers to the related questions of beginnings and the nature Fig. 30. Map showing distri- bution of sites from which Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a B2 ceramics have been recorded (grey- tone is approximately the maximum spatial extent of Vin≠a ceramics of all phas- es). For sites with radiocar- bon dates see references in the text; for other sites see Gligor 2009; G. Lazarovici 1979; Tasi≤ 1961; Marijano- vi≤ 1988a; Jacanovi≤ 1988; Madas, Brmboli≤ 1986; Jaca- novi≤, πljivar 1995; Benac 1988; Marinkovi≤ 1995; Ta- si≤, Tomi≤ 1969; Babovi≤ 1986; Jacanovi≤, ∑or∂evi≤ 1990; Borovi≤-Dimi≤ 1995; Gara∏anin, Gara∏anin 1958; 1979; Peri≤ 2006; Nikitovi≤ 1995; Bogdanovi≤ 1988a; Stankovi≤ 1989; Madas 1970; Valovi≤ 1983; 1987; Tasi≤ 1958; Tomi≤, Vukadin 1969; Mari≤, Mari≤-Mirkovi≤ 2011. 18 We have already excluded the estimate for this transition at Petnica as anomalous: see above. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 35 of subsequent development. The culture-historical approach has been dominant among researchers in the region, though not universally so (see, for exam- ple, Koro∏ec 1965). Out of the total range of Vin≠a material culture, this approach has placed heavy reliance on pottery typology (charted by Chapman 1981.Ch. 4). For origins, it sees disjuncture in longer- term sequences, and derives fresh beginnings from the outside, on a large scale and potentially from long distances: in some accounts from as far afield as Anatolia (Efe 2000; Gara∏anin 2000). There was little further explicit reflection on the character and conditions of different kinds of population displace- ment and colonisation. Subsequent developments were largely left to take care of themselves, except in those variants which saw another wave of arrivals of southern origin: the so-called Vin≠a C ‘shock’ already noted above. The approach did, however, create coherent (though often varying) narratives about the broad history of a perceived social entity. The processual approach to the Vin≠a culture was characteristically concerned with the playing out of local or regional conditions. In the quotation above, Colin Renfrew (1970.53) elaborated that the Vin≠a culture ‘developed in these areas through the oper- ation of local factors, and must be explained in terms of these factors’, though he certainly took seri- ously the previous claims for outside involvement. In terms of origins, continuity was sought, though on then imprecisely defined timescales, especially in material sequences, including those of pottery, and in landscape use (Chapman 1981.5, Ch. 4). Con- sistent with this kind of focus, the concept of the autonomous household was proposed as a major agent of change in the processual narrative of the development and eventual break-up of the Vin≠a cul- ture (Tringham, Krsti≤ 1990b.581). Broad trends rather than precise chronology were the temporal currency. Post-processual approaches have focused on selected situations. An important sketch of the development of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo itself was offered, with careful consideration given to the character and sources of material in use at the tell; the result- ing account asserting the early dominance and even- tual slow decline of the site implies a wider narra- tive, but does not explicitly document it (Chapman 2000.203–220). Other themes, broadly classifiable as post-processual, have included the nature of depo- sition and symbolic dimensions of houses (Bori≤ 2008; 2015.162; Tripkovi≤ 2007; 2013; Crnobrnja et al. 2009; Spasi≤, Ωivanovi≤ 2015). Wider narra- tives of beginnings and subsequent development, however, have often been laid aside in this change of focus, and for the most part, chronological preci- sion has not been a major concern of such contex- tual approaches. Other interpretive approaches might be advocated. Culture evolutionary theory (as variously set out in, for example, Shennan 2009; Bentley et al. 2011) could be advocated (Bori≤ 2015.189–191). The Fig. 31. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a B1 or B2 ceramics (key para- meters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The for- mat is identical to that of Figure 7 (grey tone indicates the sample has a possible old-wood offset). The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 36 recent fashion of ascribing much greater agency to things – the ontological turn (among a host of oth- ers, see Olsen 2010; Hodder 2012; Rivzi 2015; see also Bori≤ 2015.191–193) – could be extended to the rich material assemblages of the Vin≠a culture. Here, we choose not to follow either. The former tends to dehumanise complex processes of social interaction, and it is hard to escape the neo-Darwi- nian baggage that comes with it. The latter requires a much longer debate than we have space for here. It deliberately decentres human agency (see also Van Dyke 2015), much more precise narratives for which we are seeking to establish in this paper (cf. Drasovean et al. submitted). If both approaches are for further discussion elsewhere, what we have found helpful are some of the terms and concepts Fig. 32. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a C ceramics (key parameters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7 (grey tone indicates that a sample has a possible old-wood offset; red indicates a distribution excluded from the model; blue indicates a distribution modelled as a terminus ante quem). The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary informa- tion (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 37 from ongoing debates on themes of hybridity and ethnogenesis, in the field of the archaeology of colo- nialism. As a proposition which is useful for us to reflect upon, Matthew Liebmann (2013.27) has asserted of the three primary means by which new things come into being, that invention (“the cre- ation of wholly original objects, styles and tech- nologies”) is the rarest, that divergence (or evolu- tion, by which “changes to an existing form through time result in the eventual creation of multiple separate types through splitting and branching”) has been the focus of much archaeological attention, and that convergence, or “creation through recom- bination”, is “probably the most common”, though less studied in past research by archaeologists. In these terms, it seems clear that the culture-historical approach to the Vin≠a culture has favoured some version of invention for origins and kinds of diver- gence for subsequent development, while the proces- sual approach has largely plumped for divergence; the possibility of convergence, in these terms, appears largely to have been neglected. This is not the place to review in detail all the com- peting notions such as hybridity, acculturation, syn- cretism, bricolage, creolisation and mestizaje, or the advantages and disadvantages of their deployment (Liebmann 2013; 2015; Silliman 2015; and refer- ences), but it is useful to retain the sense of ground- ed detail which such studies offer. Matthew Lieb- mann (2015.331–334), for example, looks at the production of soup plates within the repertoire of Spanish-inspired Pueblo ceramics, over the specific timeframe of 1598–1700, noting an interplay of external and local factors in their design and dec- oration. Barbara Voss (2015.665–666) associates the wider notion of ethnogenesis with ‘historical circumstances in which practices of identification are structurally transformed’, often as the result of ‘substantive demographic shifts – aggregation, disag- gregation, displacement, and migration – combined with the emergence or imposition of new structures of power’. She stresses, however, that ethnicity has to be demonstrated rather than assumed (Voss 2015. 658), and questions the often lazy translation of archaeological culture into ethnic entity (Voss 2015. 660). We therefore seek to interpret the timings of Vin≠a ceramics presented in this paper within an approach that might broadly be classified as contextual and practice-based. Our principal evidence is that of the pottery itself, and it is important to stress that the vast majority of Vin≠a ceramics have been found in settlement contexts, and especially in association with houses and dwelling horizons. There is a wealth of information about later Vin≠a houses. Well-pre- served contexts such as houses at Crkvine-Stubline, part of a local network of sites of varying size, some 40km south-west of Belgrade and Vin≠a-Belo Brdo Fig. 33. Map showing distri- bution of sites from which Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a C ceramics have been recorded (grey- tone is approximately the maximum spatial extent of Vin≠a ceramics of all phas- es). For sites with radiocar- bon dates see references in the text; for other sites see Drasovean 1996; Gligor 2009; Jacanovi≤ 1988; Mari- janovi≠ 1988b; Benac 1988; Trbuhovi≤, Vasiljevi≤ 1970; 1975; Brukner 1961; Tasi≤, Tomi≤ 1969; Babovi≤ 1986; Joci≤ 1989; Borovi≤-Dimi≤ 1995; Gara∏anin, Gara∏anin 1958; 1979; Peri≤ 2006; Niki- tovi≤ 1987; 1995; Bogdano- vi≤ 1988; Juri∏i≤ 1959; Krsti≤ 1964; An∂elkovi≤-Despotovi≤, Red∫i≤ 1991; Valovi≤ 1983; 1987; Mari≤, Mari≤-Mirkovi≤ 2011; Madas, Brmboli≤ 1986; Lazi≤ et al. 1988; Todorovi≤ 1968; Bulatovi≤ 2003; Jacanovi≤, πljivar 1995; To- mi≤, Vukadin 1969; Stalio, Galovi≤ 1956; Vukovi≤ et al. 2016; Dumitrescu 1980. Petresti is unpublished. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 38 (Crnobrnja et al. 2009; Crnobrnja 2012), had lots of pots in them: ‘dozens of ceramic vessels’ and ‘a large number of storage vessels’ in house 1/2008 (Spasi≤, Ωivanovi≤ 2015.220). Some of these may have been stacked on wooden shelves (Crnobrnja et al. 2009.19). There are plentiful other examples, such as at Divostin (Tripkovi≤ 2010). Occasionally pots are found in the spaces outside, in between houses (Nikoli≤, Vukovi≤ 2008). This household setting is therefore presumably the context in which Vin≠a pottery was principally used, for a wide range of tasks, from food preparation (though the direct evidence for that is surprisingly sparse), storage and consumption. It may be that vessels most open to public gaze, literally passable from hand to hand, such as certain types of bowls, were the ones most likely to change the fastest through time, as evi- denced in the correspondence analyses of bowls from Vin≠a-Belo Brdo (Schier 1996; 2000); these might also have been the vessels most likely to break (David 1972). Some forms, such as protome vessels, seem to have remained more or less unchanged through the sequence (Spasi≤, Crnobrnja 2014). And it is important to remember that pottery was only one element of the total materiality of the house, and other constituents such as tables, hearths Fig. 34. Probability distributions of dates associated with the introduction of Vin≠a C ceramics, derived from Model 1. Fig. 35. Probability distributions of dates associated with Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a D ceramics (key parameters for individual sites have been imported from the models defined or cited in Figs. 4–23). The format is iden- tical to that of Figure 7 (grey tone indicates that a sample has a possible old-wood offset; red indicates a distribution excluded from the model). The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure provided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_1.oxcal). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 39 and storage facilities, which help to define a suite of eating practices (Spasi≤, Ωivanovi≤ 2015), and the layout of house interiors themselves, could have been at least as important as pottery in the creation and projection of social identities. So the context of pottery use was probably primarily associated with houses, but given the broad sharing of style seen in the wide distributions (Figs. 26, 28, 30, 33, and 36), on this basis alone it is extremely unlikely that households were autonomous; it is far more likely that groups of houses and neighbourhoods were the nodes through which intense connections were effected. On a note of caution, we have to recognise that our knowledge so far of early Vin≠a domestic contexts is much worse (though that helps to define a clear goal for future research). The detailed record for Vin≠a A contexts in Serbia, especially, is dire. By way of brief example, Trnova≠a has poorly defined wattle and daub structures (Jovanovi≤ 1965), while Stagari is reported to have similar structures, but these are not illustrated (Stankovi≤ 1989). Likewise, while there is detailed information on the mix of ceramic styles associated with particular longhouses at Szederkény and Versend in south-west Hungary (Jakucs et al. 2016; submitted), the material comes from flanking pits, not house floors. This lacuna ham- pers what we can say about the conditions of the emergence of the Vin≠a ceramic style. Another gap in knowledge concerns the making of pottery. Few if any structures have been identified as being associated with pottery production; the northern part of the interior of house 8 at Banjica has been suggested as a candidate (Tripkovi≤ 2007. 74, 119), but the evidence is ambiguous (Todorovi≤, Cermanovi≤ 1961). Importantly, we do not know whether all households made pottery, or if certain potters served communities at large. Whilst more data on chaînes opératoires and archaeometric ana- lyses will help us refine our understanding of pot- tery production as a whole, they are of limited use to identify units and scales of production. Another avenue worth exploring would be the identification of differences in standardisation, as tentatively iden- tified by Vukovi≤ (2011) between the sites of Vin≠a- Belo Brdo and Motel Slatina, assuming that they reflect levels of craft specialisation. We further note a fragment of the perforated clay floor which sep- arated the fire chamber from the pottery chamber in a two-chambered kiln that was recovered from a lower fill of enclosure ditch F1053 at Uivar. This find provides a terminus ante quem for the use of two-chambered kilns in the production of ceramics of 4855–4755 cal BC (95% probability; dig F1053; Schier et al. forthcoming.Fig. 6.17), probably of 4830–4780 cal BC (68% probability) – a time when Vin≠a B2 ceramics were current (Schier 2005). In turning then to beginnings and development, it is obvious that we have gathered up a sample that represents currently available dated sites, with a range in both the quality and quantity of samples. Fig. 36. Map showing distri- bution of sites from which Miloj≠i≤ Vin≠a D ceramics have been recorded (grey- tone is approximately the maximum spatial extent of Vin≠a ceramics of all phas- es). For sites with radiocar- bon dates see references in the text; for other sites see Jacanovi≤ 1988; Vukovi≤ et al. 2016; Marijanovi≤ 1988b; Be- nac 1988; Crnobrnja et al. 2009; Mari≤ 2010; Todorovi≤ 1966; Bogdanovi≤ 1988a; 1988b; Joci≤ 1989; Borovi≤- Dimi≤ 1995; Gara∏anin, Gara- ∏anin 1979; Peri≤ 2006; Juri- ∏i≤ 1960; Bogdanovi≤ 1988a; 1988b; Todorova 1990; An- ∂elkovi≤-Despotovi≤, Red∫i≤ 1991; Valovi≤ 1983; 1987; Madas, Brmboli≤ 1986; Lazi≤ et al. 1988; Jacanovi≤, πljivar 1995. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 40 Without doubt, a better dataset can be created in the future. We have also raised questions about the detail of the available typological schemes. Those can also be refined in the future. But we believe that the combination of more precise estimates of tim- ings, order and duration, the distributions and den- sity of known sites with diagnostic pottery through successive phases, and information about context, is sufficiently powerful to enable a preliminary recon- sideration of important dimensions of the Vin≠a cul- ture. Beginnings The modelled estimates for the appearance of Vin- ≠a A pottery given above suggest a rapid introduc- tion. The earliest sites dated so far belong in the north of the distribution. The overall density of sites is not as great as in later phases. Simply in these terms, neither the spatial pattern nor the temporal distribution match what the formerly proposed big- scale migrations might be expected to have pro- duced. Those earlier hypotheses were never accom- panied by explicit consideration of either the con- ditions in the homeland of colonists or of the cir- cumstances in which newcomers operated once ar- rived in fresh territory. That has, however, been set out elsewhere, and on a comparative (but not nec- essarily universal) basis, there often seems to be a process of initial scouting, followed by movement by selective groups, rather than wholesale popula- tions (Anthony 1990; 1997). To take just one specif- ic example, Susan Alt (2006.290, 294) set out three criteria for detecting possible migration into the American Bottom at the onset of the Mississippian phase – regional population growth, patterns of diversity and the distribution of non-local pottery types – but she also proposed a framework in which both migration and local development could be seen as components of the same process, involving con- vergence and hybridity. Now it certainly seems to be the case that ceramic traits that overlap with the Vin≠a repertoire are found widely in the southern Balkans and northern Greece broadly in the same horizon as the appear- ance of Vin≠a ceramics. This refers to the widely dis- tributed dark burnished wares that are variously represented among the ceramic assemblages of Ka- ranovo III and the Late Neolithic or Tsangli phases of Bulgaria and northern Greece (Georgiev 1961; Lazarovici 1979.72–74; Efstratiou et al. 1998; Kot- sakis 2014). But these dark wares are only part of much wider repertoires; there are many painted wares as well (Kotsakis 2014.61). To take just two examples, unusual circumstances of preservation in one context at Promachon-Topolnitsa on the Greek- Bulgarian border produced decorated bark, part of a wide range of pot forms and decorations (Koukou- li-Chryssanthaki et al. 2007.Fig. 19), and there were some painted vessels among the mainly dark wares in phase II at Makri in Agean Thrace, informally estimated as dating after 5500 cal BC (Efstratiou et al. 1998.32). Informal estimates for the start of the northern Greek Late Neolithic are certainly compat- ible with the Vin≠a chronology set out above, but relatively few sites have so far been radiocarbon dated with rigour (see, for example, Dispilio: Faco- rellis et al. 2014), and there has been little Bayesian modelling so far of this horizon (Kostas Kotsakis, pers. comm.). It does seem to be the case that in these areas this horizon sees a marked increase in the number of sites and their much wider distribu- tion across the landscape, compared with earlier settlement (Kotsakis 2014.60); the lakeside site of Dispilio (Karkanas et al. 2011) can usefully stand as a specific single example of this trend. So there is no need to disconnect processes in the southern Balkans and northern Greece from those operating further north, but it now appears a very clumsy explanation to derive all northern changes from the south. Fig. 37. Schematic diagram showing the currency of the different phases of Vin≠a ceramics proposed by Miloj≠i≤ (1943) (the darker the shading the more probable that a ceramic phase was present in a partic- ular 25-year period), derived from Model 1. A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 41 The timing and distribution of Vin≠a A ceramics as set out above can be argued to better align with processual explanation of local or regional develop- ment. But things may not have been as simple as this, and that processual approach turns out, in our view, to have been far too myopic: too constrained within too narrow a spatial perspective. There is, first, still the question of how material culture devel- oped from the Star≠evo to the Vin≠a repertoire. Some elements of local continuity have already been noted (as proposed by Chapman 1981; Lekovi≤ 1990); the Hungarian notion of ‘proto-Vin≠a’ elements (Mak- kay 1990) has long been debated. On their own, however, these seem insufficient, without a further assumption of rapid and extensive material changes. We know that there was a measurable gap in the occupation of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo itself between the Star≠evo and Vin≠a phases (Tasi≤ et al. 2016a; 2016b), but there is still much work to be done – and beyond the remit of this paper – to date and model the timing and tempo of this transition (see also Por≠i≤ et al. 2016). What we can stress here is the apparent synchronicity of the appearance of Vin- ≠a ceramics and the earliest LBK diaspora, as set out above. Now, entirely indigenist explanations for the appearance of the LBK (e.g., Whittle 1996) have not stood the test of time, and the increasing weight of aDNA evidence (now bolstered by genomic analysis) supports a substantial, perhaps major, element of new population dispersing into central and western Europe (among others, see Brandt et al. 2013; D. Hofmann 2015; Szécsényi-Nagy et al. 2015; Olalde et al. 2015; Hofmanová et al. 2016; Lazaridis et al. 2016). On the evidence of Szederkény and Versend in southern Hungary (Jakucs et al. 2016; submitted), the 54th and 53rd centuries cal BC were also a time of considerable cultural and material fluidity, in cir- cumstances that also involved people on the move. So it is probably better to see the transformations which led to the emergence of Vin≠a material reper- toires and practices in this kind of wider perspec- tive, and a degree of convergence, as well as diver- gence, should certainly be kept in mind. Given the aDNA evidence both from the periphery of the Vin≠a world (Hervella et al. 2015) and from the northern part of the Carpathian basin (Szécsényi-Nagy et al. 2015; Gamba et al. 2014) for further shifts in the patterns of haplotypes through the longer sequence from the sixth to the fifth millennia cal BC, it would be unwise to exclude entirely the possibility of some population movement from the south to the north, though that could also be derived from complex displacements and shifts within the northern part of the Carpathian basin. Further genomic analysis (cf. Hofmanová et al. 2016; Lazaridis et al. 2016) may help to clarify some of these issues in future research. We suggest that in place of ‘the old tired accounts of migration and diffusion’ (Kotsakis 2014.65) a much more complex and challenging account needs now to be given of rapid and extensive change, that has to be seen at local, regional and inter-regional scales, which involved material transformations to suit the changing circumstances of increasing pop- ulations more widely distributed across their land- scapes, and some of whom may have been caught up in processes of movement and displacement. Some strands in shifting material repertoires were very widely distributed, but those can probably best Fig. 38. Key parameters for the duration of the phases of Vin≠a ceramics proposed by Miloj≠i≤ (1943), derived from Model 1. Fig. 39. Key parameters for the overlap between phases of Vin≠a ceramics proposed by Miloj≠i≤ (1943), derived from Model 1. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 42 be further investigated as media through which social connections across this very broad, shifting world were expressed. As a discipline, we have been comfortable debating intensely the beginnings of the Neolithic, but we have been far less successful so far in thinking through subsequent transformations. Development Increasing connectivity seems to define the next phases of development, from Vin≠a B1 through Vin- ≠a D. though we have noted difficulties above in dif- ferentiating between B1 and B2 assemblages in some areas, it seems that the trend following the A phase was towards the appearance of more sites in the landscape. The greatest density is reached overall already by the Vin≠a B2 phase, and that is then main- tained in the Vin≠a C phase. On the ground, this coin- cides, as noted also above for northern Greece and the southern Balkans, with a spread in the distribu- tions of sites across local landscapes (e.g., Chapman 1990), and with the appearance of more tells and larger flat sites. At this point, we can indeed perhaps best think in terms of local and regional factors at work. This appears to have been an intensifying but at the same time stable phenomenon, the timings set out above showing long continuities at a land- scape scale, and to varying degrees in particular loca- tions. The notion of the ‘shock of Vin≠a C’ is proba- bly now best translated into the peak connectivity of the system, and the timings suggest that that was anyway reached earlier, in Vin≠a B2. There appears to be no particular need to invoke further population movement at the start of the Vin≠a C phase, even though the models set out above suggest a probably quite rapid transition from Vin≠a B2 to Vin≠a C cera- mics. But yet again, the possibility of some small- scale displacements need not entirely be excluded. It is also worth noting that the emergence of Vin≠a C ceramics followed the end of the LBK, and may have coincided with a hiatus between LBK and Hin- kelstein in some parts of the Rhineland (Denaire et al. in press); further east, there was probably more continuity after the end of the LBK (Link 2014), but as with beginnings, it is useful to keep an eye on the wider situation and connections. In our view, as already hinted at in the language used throughout this paper, it is probably best in the first place to see this developed Vin≠a phenomenon, from Vin≠a B1 right through into Vin≠a D, as an ex- tended social network. The overall distribution is markedly riverine, and one of us has recently sketch- ed the connectivity in terms of ‘various influences, borrowings, emulations, exchange, trade and breed- ing networks’ (Bori≤ 2015.158), underpinned by flows of material into sites and played out in the household settings described above. The culture his- torical approach has tended to construct a further sense of unifying or coherent group or ethnic iden- tity. We have noted the warning of Voss (2015.660) about equating ‘ethnonyms’ with real ethnicities, and it was normal processual procedure to set that kind of interpretation aside. But it has long been apparent that the Vin≠a phenomenon was long-last- ing and in that sense stable, which the more precise timings set out in this paper serve only to underline. Without removing local differences, there must have been much that was shared throughout the Vin≠a network, and from widespread, common practices there surely came a shared way of acting in and un- derstanding the world. The virtual absence of formal or archaeologically visible mortuary practice through- out the network and the wide distributions of altars, anthropomorphic figurines (Tasi≤ 2016), face-lids and masks, may also speak to widely shared ways of thought. Cumulatively, this perhaps gets us closer Fig. 40. Overall form of the chronological model for the phasing of Vin≠a pottery proposed by Miloj≠i≤ (1943) (Model 2). The format is identical to that of Figure 7. Components of this model are illustrated in Figures 25, 27, 29, 31–32, and 35. The model is defined exactly by the OxCal keywords and structure pro- vided as supplementary information (Vinca_Milojcic_Model_2.oxcal). A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 43 to Voss’s (2015.658, quoting Vermeulen, Govers 1994) very general definition of ethnicity as a “con- sciousness of difference”, “that is negotiated both through external debates about differences between ‘us’ and ‘them’ and through internal contests over community self-definition”. But it is far from clear that the Vin≠a network had rigidly defined or sharp boundaries, even though from Vin≠a B1 onwards dif- ferent kinds of ceramics were preferred in southern Hungary, for example. And whether the network at its peak projected “ideologies of shared and diver- gent history, ancestry, and tradition” (Voss 2015. 658), in contrast to or opposition to other contem- porary cultural groupings, perhaps also remains a moot point; wider connectivity seems to have been at least as important as local or regional self-defini- tion. Endings Some of the most intriguing questions raised by our study relate to the Vin≠a D phase. Though this now appears shorter than frequently suggested in the past, it nonetheless represents overall a substantive continuation of existing practice. Though this was the phase in which some tells began to be aban- doned, others, such as Vin≠a-Belo Brdo itself (Tasi≤ et al. 2015; 2016a; 2016b), continued to rise steadi- ly, until endings perhaps mainly in the 46th centu- ry cal BC. Simply on the basis of two well-dated sites, Vin≠a-Belo Brdo and Uivar (Drasovean et al. sub- mitted), it could be the case that house burnings became more frequent in the last two centuries or so of the Vin≠a network. Now there are many ways to interpret house burnings, and there is not the space here to set out again all the arguments for scale and motivation (see Tasi≤ et al. 2015.1077– 1079). Suffice it to say that they could be seen as one symptom of changing times and increased inter- communal tensions and aggression. We have already suggested that it seems insufficient to ascribe all putative tensions to the activities of the autonomous late Vin≠a household, as communal dimensions still seem paramount, for example in contexts like Stubli- ne, though we note the appearance of larger houses in some contexts such as Banjica (Tripkovi≤ 2007). The situation remains unclear, which the timings given in this paper underline. There are probable tensions, and these and perhaps other factors not yet defined, or a combination of these possibilities, appear to have brought the Vin≠a network and its associated ways of living to an end. Continuing the theme of tracking the Vin≠a and Danubian worlds in parallel, the end of the Danubian world was proba- bly staggered across the end of the Vin≠a network. As with beginnings in the Vin≠a A phase, we still badly need a much longer list of well-dated late Vin- ≠a sites, in order to unpick the sequence and tempo of endings. Another puzzle remains. If the Vin≠a phe- nomenon unravelled because of internal tensions (however constituted), this does not seem to have been accompanied by the same kind of material regionalisation as seen for example in the late LBK (e.g., Pechtl 2015). Some regionalisation is appar- ent, and this paper has followed the categorisation of the Turdas culture in Transylvania as distinct from late Vin≠a culture (Drasovean 1996.28, 93– 94). But material culture including ceramics in the Vin≠a D phase does not appear to project the kind of much tighter regional groupings, perhaps reflec- tive of increasing concern for local identities and interests, which seem to characterise the end of the LBK. We note again, however, the date estimates for a greater overlap between Vin≠a C and Vin≠a D cera- mics than was apparent with earlier phases, and per- haps this greater variability could be an important clue to follow further at a variety of regional and local scales. Fig. 41. Earliest Vin≠a A ceramics (cf. Fig. 25) in comparison to various readings of the dating of the LBK diaspora (cf. Jakucs et al. 2016.Fig 24). Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 44 Conclusions and questions for future research We conclude that this study indicates much more complex circumstances for the appearance of the Vin≠a phenomenon than envisaged in most previous approaches; that it sketches a steadily intensifying network, which reached its peak of connectivity already in the Vin≠a B2 phase, which was main- tained through the Vin≠a C phase and even into the Vin≠a D phase, though there are some signs of regionalisation in that late phase; and that Vin≠a ceramics remained relatively stable in the Vin≠a D phase, even though this is a time widely charac- terised by many researchers as one of tensions and even crisis. We have used the term network in pref- erence to that of culture; the nature of the network is compatible with widely shared practices and per- haps beliefs, but connectivity rather than exclusive- ness is characteristic, and sharp boundaries are not apparent. Although these conclusions help to redefine the nature of the Vin≠a phenomenon, our study has rais- ed at least as many questions as answers. In partic- ular, it has highlighted a long list of questions about the circumstances of beginnings and endings, but there are also plenty of unresolved aspects of the long, middle part of the sequence. To answer such questions in future research, a series of challenges need to be met. The typology of Vin≠a ceramics could be much further refined (with no disrespect intended towards the long list of heroic pioneers and predecessors in this fundamentally important field). Correspondence analysis of the bowls in the upper portion of the Vin≠a-Belo Brdo stratigraphy needs to be completed, and comparable exercises could be carried out on other key assemblages across the distribution of the network. More sites should and could be radiocarbon dated, using short-life sam- ples of known taphonomy from definable contexts, to avoid age-offsets. All these tasks are feasible, and exploitation of existing archives (as shown in the study of Vin≠a-Belo Brdo: Tasi≤ et alii 2016a) is at least as important as the application of best practice in new excavations. The scale of new dating, if with- in a refined system of typology and seriations, need not be massive to be effective. There is every reason to be optimistic that further refinements to the chro- nology of the Vin≠a potscape, down to the precision of lifetimes and generations, can realistically be achieved in the next generation or two of research. The supplementary information for the Vinca_Miloj cic_Model_1.oxcal and Vinca_Milojcic_Model_2.oxcal are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.43.1 We are grateful to Miroslav Birclin, Marcel Buri≤, Evanthia Kalogiropoulous, Dimitris Kloukinas, Kostas Kotsa- kis, Krisztian Oross, Cosmin Suciu, and Johannes van der Plicht for providing information. Kirsty Harding help- ed with the figures. Previously unpublished radiocarbon dates from Ore∏kovica were funded by the NERC Radiocarbon Facility (grant NF/2014/2/15), and we thank Du∏ko πljivar, Bryan Hanks, Roger Doonan, Seren Griffiths, Miroslav Ko≠i≤, and Jelena Bulatovi≤ for permission to cite them in advance of full publication. Un- published radiocarbon dates from Masinske Njive were also funded by the NERC Radiocarbon Facility (grant NF/2011/2/5); those from Poporanj were funded by the Ministry of Culture of the Republic of Serbia as part of a project undertaken by the City Museum Vr∏ac; and those from At were funded by the Deutsche Forschungsge- meinschaft through the Collaborative Research Center 806 ‘Our way to Europe’ as part of project undertaken in collaboration by the Universities of Cologne and Belgrade. We are grateful to John Chapman for generously shar- ing his encylopaedic knowledge of the Vin≠a world to improve various aspects of this paper, and for providing access to his extensive library! The dating and modelling reported here have been carried out within The Times of Their Lives, funded by the European Research Council (Advanced Investigator Grant 295412), and led by Alasdair Whittle and Alex Bayliss. 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A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 55 Site No. of 14C No. of 14C results No. of 14C Referencesresults (excluded) results (TPQ) Danube upstream of Tisza Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő 41 2 Jakucs et al. 2016.Tab. 1 Versend 68 2 Jakucs et al. submitted.Tab. 1 Bapska 8 1 1 Table 2 Tisza and Mureş Maroslele Pana 5 Table 2 At 4 1 Table 2 Potporanj 3 2 Table 2 Ószentiván 8 4 4 Kohl, Quitta 1970 Tiszasziget 1 1 Table 2 Satchinez 1 Table 2 Hodoni 2 Table 2 Uivar 182 27 86 Schier et al. forthcoming.Tabs. 6.2–6.6 Tărtăria 3 1 1 Table 2 Limba 1 1 Biagi et al. 2005.49 Cauce Cave 1 1 Paolo Biagi, pers. comm. Orăştie–Dealul Pemilor, punct X2 3 3 Luca 2003 Cârcea Viaduct 8 8 Mantu 2000.99< Biagi, Spataro 2005.37 Miercurea Sibiului-Petriş 4 1 1 Biagi et al. 2007.Fig. 3< Luca et al. 2006.17 Sava catchment Lupljanica 1 1 Table 2 Gornja Tuzla 5 3 2 Table 2 Gomolava 32 3 15 Borić 2009.Tab. 5< Orton 2012.Tab. 2< Waterbolk 1988.Beilage 1 Petnica 7 Borić 2009.Tab. 6< Orton 2012.Tab. 2 Masinske Njive 3 Table 2 Jari;i[te 1 1 Table 2 Belgrade area Vin;a Belo-Brdo 85 2 7 Tasić et al. 2016a.Tab. 2 Opovo 13 2 Orton 2012.Tab. 2< Table 2 Banjica 3 1 2 Table 2 Central Serbia Grivac 6 1 5 Table 2 Divostin II 11 2 8 McPherron, Srejović 1988< Borić 2009 Morava catchment Anzabegovo 2 2 Table 2 Belovode 9 1 3 Borić 2009.Tab. 2 Plo;nik 8 Table 2 Ore[kovica 6 Table 2 Selevac 12 7 Table 2 Predionica 1 1 Table 2 Vala; 1 Table 2 Beran-Kr[ 2 2 Table 2 Donje Vranje 1 1 Table 2 Danube downstream of Vin;a Liubcova 1 Table 2 Gornea 1 1 Table 2 Rudna Glava 14 6 Borić 2009.Tab. 1 Tab. 1. Summary of radiocarbon dating evidence considered in this review19. 19 Additionally, five thermoluminescence (TL) ages are reported on sherds from Feature 121 at Divostin II by McPherron and Sre- jovi≤ (1988.Ch. 4). These measurements were made using the fine-grain technique (Zimmerman 1971), although no checks were made for anomalous fading (Wintle 1973) nor radon escape (Desai, Aitken 1974). Given the provisional nature of these mea- surements, no error is quoted for the measurements on each sherd and so they cannot be included in the modelling presented here. Similarly, no error is reported for the average magnetic inclination and declination measurements made from samples from Houses 14, 15, and 16 at Divostin II, two houses from Grivac, and the middle of the Vin≠a layer at Gomolava, which are also reported by McPherron and Srejovi≤ (1988.Ch. 4). Again, this prevents these measurements from being calibrated and included in the chronological models. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 56 Tab. 2. Radiocarbon determinations and related stable isotopic measurements for samples associated with Vin≠a ceramics (all stable isotope measurements were made using Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry, except those marked * which were made by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry). Site Laboratory Material and stratigraphic details Radiocarbon δ13C δ15N C>N References number age (BP) (‰) (‰) Bapska Bln-348 Sample 1, charcoal, Ulmus sp. from 5820±80 Quitta, Kohl 1969< foundation of house 2-A< 1.4 m in Dimitrijević 1968.92 Dimitrijević 1964 trench associated with a Vin;a C vessel Bapska Beta-241657a Charred Triticum dicoccum from 5710±40 –23.6 Burić 2015< 2011 house 2 associated with Vin;a C\D pottery (Burić 2015.150) Bapska Beta-241657b Carbonised wheat grains from a con- 5690±40 –23.6 Burić, Tezac-Gregl centration with traces of a wooden 2009< Burić 2011< 2015 framework from behind house 1 Bapska Beta-241659 Charred unidentified animal bone 5660±40 –23.7 Burić 2011< 2015 from exterior of house 2 building level associated with Vin;a C\D pottery (Burić 2015.150) Bapska OxA-23592 Unidentified animal bone from exterior 5714±31 –20.3 Burić 2011< 2015 of house 2 building level associated with Vin;a C\D pottery (Burić 2015.150) Bapska OxA-23593 Unidentified animal bone from build- 5715±33 –20.2 Burić 2011< 2015 ing level of houses 1 and 2 Bapska Beta-333534 Charred grains from house 2 associated 5700±40 Burić 2015 with a Vin;a C\D vessel (Burić 2015.150) Maroslele- Poz-28647 Unidentified animal bone from pit 119 6290±40 Paluch 2011.Figs. 115– Pana containing a few diagnostic sherds, 116 some of which resemble Vin;a A1–A2 forms, while others resemble early Alföld LBK material Maroslele- Poz-42773 Unidentified animal bone from pit 114 6255±40 Paluch 2011.Figs. 102– Pana containing diagnostic Vin;a A1–A2 114 pottery and diagnostic early Alföld LBK material Maroslele- Poz-28646 Unidentified animal bone from pit 103 6280±40 Paluch 2011.Figs. 92– Pana containing diagnostic Vin;a A1–A2 101 pottery and diagnostic early Alföld LBK material Maroslele- Poz-28645 Unidentified animal bone from pit 102 6280±40 Paluch 2011.Figs. 90– Pana containing a few diagnostic sherds, 91 some of which resemble Vin;a A1–A2 forms Maroslele- Poz-28644 Unidentified animal bone from pit 85 6200±50 Paluch 2011.Figs. 62– Pana containing diagnostic Vin;a A1–A2 89 pottery and a few fragments in early Alföld LBK style At Col-3245 Pig mandible from layer 8, base of pit 5739±41 –21.0* Chu et al. 2016 1, associated with Vin;a C\D pottery At Col-3246 Unidentified charcoal from layer 11 5675±43 –24.7* Chu et al. 2016 feature 3. A concentration of fired clay from the oven At Col-3248 Right nasal bovid bone from layer 11 5905±41 –20.0* Chu et al. 2016 feature 2a, from large concentration of ash next to the fired clay in feature 3. At OxA-8595 Bone tool from pit 1 associated with 5660±65 –20.2 Whittle et al. 2002 Vin;a C\D pottery A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 57 Site Laboratory Material and stratigraphic details Radiocarbon δ13C δ15N C>N References number age (BP) (‰) (‰) Potporanj MAMS- Unidentified charcoal from last habita- 6156±30 –18.7* 22666 tion level, after the removal of the house debris in trench 2 associated with Vin;a B to Vin;a C pottery Potporanj MAMS- Unidentified charcoal from the lowest 6139±29 –16.8* 22667 level, house floor level, trench 2 associated with Vin;a A pottery Potporanj MAMS- Unidentified animal bone from relative 6211±25 –24.4* 3.1 22668 depth of 1.64 m in trench 2 associated with Vin;a B2 pottery Tiszasziget Bln-1631 Unidentified charcoal from Pit 1 6285±60 Horváth, Hertelendi associated with Vin;a A pottery 1994 (Horváth, Hertelendi 1994.125) Satchinez Deb-2579 Antler from pit 420 associated with 6270±40 Mantu 2000 Vin;a A pottery (Mantu 2000.98) Hodoni Deb-1963 Antler from Pit 4 associated with 5880±60 Draşovean 1994 Vin;a C pottery (Draşovean 1994.411) Hodoni Deb-2018 Antler from Pit 4 associated with 5870±60 Gläser 1996 Vin;a C pottery (Gläser 1996.196) Tărtăria R-1631 Partial human burial from ritual pit 6310±65 Merlini et al. 2008.156 associated with Vin;a B1 pottery Tărtăria R-1655 Unidentified animal bone from base of 6215±65 Merlini et al. 2008.156 pit B2 associated with Vin;a B1 pottery Miercurea GrA-33127 Single charred grain of Triticum dicoc- 6475±40 –22.4 Biagi et al. 2007.Fig. 3 Sibiului- cum from layer IIa in pit 18, which Petriş contained diagnostic assemblage of Vin;a B ceramics Miercurea GrA-43076 Charred residue on pottery sherd from 6160±50 –26.1 Sibiului- pit 18, which contained diagnostic Petriş assemblage of Vin;a B ceramics Miercurea GrN-29053 Cattle calcaneum from house 11, 6350±130 –20.8 Luca et al. 2006.17 Sibiului- level IIb associated with diagnostic Petriş assemblage of Vin;a B ceramics Miercurea GrN-30500 Red deer astragalus from pit 3, 6200±60 –19.1 Biagi et al. 2007.Fig. 3 Sibiului- level IIb, which contained diagnostic Petriş assemblage of Vin;a B ceramics Lupljanica M-2455 Unidentified charcoal from 1.3m below 5600±200 Breunig 1987.107< ground surface in feature II\1970, the Crane, Griffin 1972. lower building level of Late Neolithic 190–191 structure in the southwest part of the site, associated with Vin;a D pottery (Breunig 1987.107) Gornja Bln-349 Charcoal, Quercus sp. from burnt 5710±100 Quitta, Kohl 1969 Tuzla wooden stucture at 3.63 m in Sonda II\I-8, kop 26 associated with Vin;a C pottery (Quitta, Kohl 1969.233) Gornja GrN-1974 Unidentified charcoal (charred beam at 5580±60 Vogel, Waterbolk 1963 Tuzla the depth of 3.5 m) associated with Vin- ;a C pottery (Vogel, Waterbolk 1963.183) Masinske OxA-26303 Bos\Cervus from Feature 1.31\4, O.S. 12, 6211±35 –21.5 8.1 Njive Sq. ≥8 associated with Vin;a B pottery (M. Spasić, pers. comm.) Masinske OxA-26304 Bos taurus from Feature 1.31\4, O.S. 12, 6267±36 –21.2 7.8 Njive Sq. ≥8 associated with Vin;a B pottery (M. Spasić, pers. comm.) Masinske OxA-26305 Cervus elaphus from Feature 1.31\9, 6235±37 –22.6 7.1 Njive O.S. 05, Sq. Y4 associated with Vin;a B pottery (M. Spasić, pers. comm.) 20 Drasovean (2014.154, fn 10) reports that this sample came from pit 1. This was, however, a typographical error. Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 58 Site Laboratory Material and stratigraphic details Radiocarbon δ13C δ15N C>N References number age (BP) (‰) (‰) Jari;i[te 1 NOSAMS- A singe flax seed from feature 1.137 (pit 6260±35 78623 infill) associated with Vin;a A pottery Opovo CAMS-4411 Unidentified charcoal from Feature 41 6030±60 –25.0 (locus 1861) associated with Vin;a C pottery Opovo CAMS-4413 Unidentified charcoal from Feature 41 5990±60 –25.0 (locus 1800) associated with Vin;a C pottery Banjica GrN-1542 Unidentified charcoal associated with 5710±90 Vogel, Waterbolk Vin;a D pottery 1963.184–185 (Vogel, Waterbolk 1963.185) Banjica GrN-1536 Charcoal\charred grain from House 7, 5670±120 Vogel, Waterbolk horizon III associated with Vin;a D 1963.184 pottery (Vogel, Waterbolk 1963.184) Grivac Z-1508 Unidentified charcoal from Trench A, 6000±140 Srdo; et al. 1987 level 9 associated with Vin;a C pottery Grivac Bln-868 ‘Burnt earth’ from Trench B, under burnt 6070±100 McPherron, Srejović house associated with Vin;a C pottery 1988.Tab. 14.1 Grivac Bln-872 Unidentified charcoal from Trench A, 5915±100 McPherron, Srejović level 4, burnt house floor associated 1988.Tab. 14.1 with Vin;a C pottery Grivac Bln-871 Unidentified charcoal from Trench A, 6190±100 McPherron, Srejović level 7 associated with Vin;a C pottery 1988.Tab. 14.1 Grivac Bln-870 Unidentified charcoal from a large pit in 6315±100 McPherron, Srejović subsoil, SE corner of Trench B associ- 1988.Tab. 14.1 ated with Vin;a A pottery (Bogdanović 2004.500) Anzabegovo LJ-2411 Unidentified charcoal from Sq. VIII, 6070±190 Gimbutas 1976< unit 55 associated with Vin;a B pottery Linick 1977 Anzabegovo LJ-2329 Unidentified charcoal from Sq. XX, 6230±60 Gimbutas 1976< depth 190cm below datum associated Linick 1977 with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14685 PL23, Bos sp. proximal tibia from burnt 5765±35 –20.6 5.7 Borić 2009 building debris> Trench 16< spit 7< 297.79masl< copper chisel found under the debris (07\11\2000) associated with ‘Gradac’ phase pottery, equivalent here to Vin;a C\D. Plo;nik OxA-14686 PL24, Bos sp. calcaneus from building 6046±37 –19.8 4.8 Borić 2009 floor> Trench 14< spit 10, 297.29masl< amorphous lumps of copper (2000) associated with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14687 PL25, Bos sp. rib from burnt surface> 6148±37 –21.4 6.4 Borić 2009 Trench 14< spit 13, 297.02masl< charcoal, ash and burnt soil (2000) associated with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14688 PL26, Bos sp. vertebra from bottom of 6153±37 –21.0 6.8 Borić 2009 trench> Trench 14< spit 22, 295.87masl (2000) associated with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14689 PL28, Bos-size bone from Surface V> 6026±38 –20.4 5.8 Borić 2009 Trench 15< spit 12< 300.18masl< lumps of thermally changed malachite (02\10\2001) associated with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14690 PL29, dog distal humerus from Oven, 6160±37 –19.2 8.5 Borić 2009 Surface VII> Trench 15< spit 16, 299.56masl (10\10\2001) associated with Vin;a B pottery A Vin;a potscape> formal chronological models for the use and development of Vin;a ceramics in south-east Europe 59 Site Laboratory Material and stratigraphic details Radiocarbon δ13C δ15N C>N References number age (BP) (‰) (‰) Plo;nik OxA-14691 PL30, awl from large mammal long 6193±37 –20.1 5.9 Borić 2009 bone from burnt surface> Trench 15< spit 20, 299.09masl, charcoal and ash (11\10\2001) associated with Vin;a B pottery Plo;nik OxA-14692 PL31, Bos sp. rib from a hearth> Trench 6181±34 –20.6 7.6 Borić 2009 15< spit 26, 298.08masl< hearth dug into the sterile soil (15\11\2001) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31571 Red deer antler tool (S1) from the 6265±38 –21.9 Borić et al. in prep. primary fill (42) of ditch 47 (trench 1) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31572 Roe deer metatarsus (S4) from the 6137±35 –21.5 Borić et al. in prep. upper fill (17) of ditch 47 (trench 1) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31573 Articulated cattle distal metararsus + 6123±37 –20.3 Borić et al. in prep. phalanx I (S6) from the primary fill (36) of palisade 32 (trench 1) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31574 Sus domesticus mandible (S8) from fill 6224±37 –20.0 Borić et al. in prep. (62) of pit 18 (trench 2) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31575 Cattle horn core (S9) from fill (14) 6164±39 –20.7 Borić et al. in prep. (trench 2) associated with Vin;a B pottery Ore[kovica OxA-31576 Lepus europeus articulated ulna and 6206±37 –17.9 Borić et al. in prep. radius (S10) from pit (61) (trench 3) associated with Vin;a B pottery Selevac HAR 3211 Unidentified charcoal from Trench 18, 6050±70 –26.0 Tringham, Krstić quad. 2, level 9 (BH 77-78> V) associ- 1990c ated with Vin;a B2 pottery Selevac HAR 3217 Unidentified wood from Feature 227 in 6240±100 –26.3 Tringham, Krstić Trench 14 (BH 77-78> VII, VIII or IX) 1990c associated with Vin;a B2\C pottery Selevac HAR 3218 Unidentified charcoal from Trench 18, 5670±80 –25.3 Tringham, Krstić quad. 3\4, level 10 (BH 77-78> IX|) 1990c associated with Vin;a C pottery Selevac HAR 3220 Unidentified charcoal from Feature 44, 6100±70 –27.1 Tringham, Krstić collapsed oven superstructure (BH 77- 1990c 78> VI) associated with Vin;a B2 pottery Selevac HAR 3221 Unidentified charcoal from Feature 210, 6050±70 –26.7 Tringham, Krstić ditch related to House 4 (BH 77-78> VII) 1990c associated with Vin;a B2\C pottery Selevac HAR 3222 Grain (whole) from Feature 60 6230±100 –25.6 Tringham, Krstić (House 7) (BH 77-78> II) associated 1990c with Vin;a B1 pottery Selevac HAR 3230 Unidentified charcoal from Feature 220, 5750±80 –25.7 Tringham, Krstić deep posthole (BH 77-78> VIII or IX) 1990c associated with Vin;a B2\C pottery Selevac HAR 3232 Unidentified charcoal lens from 6040±70 _25.5 Tringham, Krstić Feature 62 (BH 77-78> V) associated 1990c with Vin;a B2 pottery Selevac LJ-2521 Grain from Silo A associated with 6080±70 Linick 1977 Vin;a B1 pottery Selevac Z-233a Wheat grain from Silo A 6113±80 Srdoć et al. 1975 Selevac Z-233b Wheat grain from Silo A 6152±90 Srdoć et al. 1975 Selevac Z-233 Wheat grain from Silo A 6366±100 Srdoć et al. 1975 Whittle, Bayliss, Barclay, Gaydarska, Bánffy, Borić, Draşovean, Jakucs, Marić, Orton, Pantović, Schier, Tasić and Vander Linden 60 Site Laboratory Material and stratigraphic details Radiocarbon δ13C δ15N C>N References number age (BP) (‰) (‰) Predionica Bln-435 Charcoal, Quercus sp. from fire 6280±80 Quitta, Kohl 1969 installation in Level 3b at 1.8m associated with Vin;a A pottery (Quitta, Kohl 1969.237) Vala; Bln-436 Mixed sample of charred acorns and 5895±80 Quitta, Kohl 1969< seeds of sf. Pisum sp. from charred and Gimbutas 1974 ashy infill of a cut feature 0.7m from the surface in sondage P-3 associated with Vin;a D pottery (Quitta, Kohl 1969.237) Beran-Kr[ Z-491 Unidentified charcoal from context with 6030±60 Srdoć et al. 1977.474< variable information> Trench III, level 7 Marković 1985.70 (Srdoć et al. 1977) or level 3 or 4 from building horizon IIa associated with Vin;a C pottery (Marković 1985) Beran-Kr[ Z-492 Unidentified charcoal from context 5870±150 Srdoć et al. 1977.474< with variable information Trench III, Marković 1985.70 level 13 (base of excavation) (Srdoć et al. 1977) or level 3 or 4 from building horizon IIa associated with Vin;a C pottery (Marković 1985) Donje SUERC- Bos or Cervus bone from Pit in KRS1 6206±33 –21.1 Kapuran et al. 2016 Vranje 57927 Gornea BM-1124 Charcoal (ref 1974\57)< charcoal frag- 5871±54 –25.8 Burleigh, Hewson ments from Trench 23, sq. 1, Pit 21, 1979 spits 4-6 associated with Vin;a A pottery (Burleigh, Hewson 1979.350) Liubcova Bln-2133 Charred grain associated with Vin;a B2 6175±85 László 1997 pottery (László 1997.260)