25. MAREC 2004 25 MARCH 2004 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 9 št./No 88 Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 2 Rapid Reports No. 88/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 Rapid Reports No 88/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 4 Rapid Reports No. 88/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 Rapid Reports No 88/2004 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. We have been carrying out the Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: • 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, • 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels • 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. • 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: They were selected into the panel by two criteria: • razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD in • the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) and • velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). • the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli 94 % velikih (97 % prihodka velikih podjetij) in 90 % srednje velikih (90 % prihodka srednje velikih podjetij) ter 31 % malih podjetij (ali 37 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 41 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 89 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovine z motornimi vozili. The panel includes 94% of large enterprises (or 97% of their turnover), 90% of medium-sized enterprises (or 90% of their turnover) and 31% of small enterprises (or 37% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 41% of enterprises of the studied population or 89% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SKD classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 6 Rapid Reports No. 88/2004 Na grafih so prikazane desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2004. Pri prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah in ravni prodaje sezonska komponenta ni upoštevana. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2004. Selling prices, selling prices expectation and the level of sales have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju in sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business trend and present stock (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Persons participating in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah. Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports. VPRAŠANJA : QUESTIONS: Ocene stanj: Appreciation of situation: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Assessment of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higer level, unchanged, at a lower level? Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: Expectation in the next months: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling price expectations for the next months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 meseci: večji, enak, manjši? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 Rapid Reports No 88/2004 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT Tendence v trgovini na drobno so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem poslabšale: desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaupanja je bila za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot v preteklem mesecu. V primerjavi z lanskim marcem pa je bila ta vrednost za 3 odstotne točke višja, za 1 odstotno točko pa je presegla lansko povprečje. In March 2004, business tendencies in retail trade went down compared to the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator was 1 percentage point lower than in February 2004. Compared to March 2003 the value of the confidence indicator rose by 3 percentage points and was 1 percentage point above last year's average. Na gibanje kazalnika zaupanja sta vplivali predvsem ocena sedanjega in ocena pričakovanega poslovnega položaja. The evolution of the confidence indicator was mostly influenced by the present and expected business situation. Kazalniki stanj so se večinoma izboljšali; izjema sta bila kazalnik prodajnih cen in kazalnik gibanja prodaje. Kazalniki pričakovanj so se večinoma poslabšali, izjema je bil kazalec pričakovanega zaposlovanja. Indicators of the present situation improved, except the indicator of selling prices and evolution of sales. Expectations deteriorated, except the indicator of employment expectations. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanega poslovnega položaja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je vrednost kazalnika nižja za 3 odstotne točke in 2 odstotni točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected business situation indicator fell by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was down by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 2 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanih prodajnih cen se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 9 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je vrednost kazalnika 39 odstotnih točk nižja in 25 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices expectations indicator fell by 9 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was down by 39 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 25 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je vrednost kazalnika višja za 19 odstotnih točk in 9 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected employment indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 19 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 9 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovane skupne nabave se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 2 točki. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je vrednost kazalnika višja za 7 odstotnih točk in 4 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected orders indicator fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 7 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanega povpraševanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 8 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika 6 odstotnih točk nižja in enaka lanskemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected demand indicator fell by 8 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was down by 6 percentage points and the same as last year’s average. STANJA SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika poslovnega položaja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 4 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika 14 odstotnih točk višja in 8 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the business situation indicator rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 14 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 8 percentage points. Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 8 Rapid Reports No. 88/2004 PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika prodajnih cen se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 5 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika 47 odstotnih točk nižja in 25 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices indicator fell by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was down by 47 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 25 percentage points. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika finančnega položaja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta in lansko povprečje je vrednost kazalnika 1 odstotno točko višja. The seasonally adjusted value of the financial situation indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 and last year’s average it was up by 1 percentage point. OBSEG ZALOG PRESENT STOCKS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika obsega zalog se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika enaka in 1 točko nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the present stocks indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it remained the same while compared to last year’s average it was up by 1 percentage point. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika ravni prodaje je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 11 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika 24 odstotnih točk višja in 14 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the level of sales indicator rose by 11 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 24 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 14 percentage points. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika konkurenčnosti je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem 1 odstotno točko višja. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalnika 9 odstotnih točk višja in 6 točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the competition indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 9 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika gibanja prodaje je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem 4 odstotne točke nižja. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost 8 odstotnih točk višja in 4 odstotne točke nad povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the evolution of sales indicator rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to March 2003 it was up by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE 35 % podjetij (oz. 29 % prihodka) se v trgovini na drobno srečuje z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem je delež za 1 točko višji, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta pa je enak. In March 2004, 35% of enterprises (29% of turnover) in retail trade were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month the share was 1 percentage point higher while compared to March 2003 it was the same. Podjetij, ki se srečujejo s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je 32 % (oz. 27 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je glede na pretekli mesec enak in 2 točki višji od lanskega marca. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 32% (27% of turnover). Compared to the previous month it remained the same while compared to March 2003 it was 2 percentage points higher. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je 24 % (oz. 24 % prihodka), to je za 1 točko manj kot pretekli mesec in isti mesec lanskega leta. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 24% (24% of turnover), which is 1 percentage point less than in the previous month and in March 2003. Podjetij, ki niso imela omejitev v poslovanju, je 9 % (oz. 20 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je glede na pretekli mesec enak in 1 točko nižji od lanskega marca. Only 9% of enterprises (20% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. Compared to the previous month the share was the same while compared to March 2003 it was down by 1 percentage point. Statistične informacije, št. 88/2004 Rapid Reports No 88/2004 9 Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade shows that: 1) • 42 % podjetij (ali 43 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju, • 42% of enterprises (or 43% of turnover) were limited by competition in own sector, • 37 % podjetij (ali 39 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela, • 37% of enterprises (or 39% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, • 35 % podjetij (ali 25 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje, • 35% of enterprises (or 25% of turnover) were limited by demand difficulties, • 29 % podjetij (ali 28 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja, • 29% of enterprises (or 28% of turnover) were limited by high cost of finance, • 16 % podjetij (ali 5 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, • 16% of enterprises (or 5% of turnover) were limited by access to bank credits, • 13 % podjetij (ali 7 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina, • 13% of enterprises (or 7% of turnover) were limited by small sales surface, • 11 % podjetij (ali 8 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd., • 11% of enterprises (or 8% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., • 10 % podjetij (ali 20 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju, • 10% of enterprises (or 20% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, • 8 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori, • 8% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, • 4 % podjetij (ali 2 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. • 4% of enterprises (or 2% of turnover) were limited by bad supply. 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacled to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Barbara Mikulec Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada ..... izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408-9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run …… copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408-9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.