7257 KB64 KB195120262022Babič, AnžeDolšek, MatjažŽižmond, Jureštevilka:letn. 71str. 34-47ISSN:0017-2774COBISSID_HOST:98487555URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-R5IVLJANslZveza društev gradbenih inženirjev in tehnikov SlovenijeGradbeni vestnikbuilding stock in Sloveniacivil engineeringčasovno opredeljena ocena tveganjagradbeništvoLjubljana earthquakeljubljanski potresocena tveganja na osnovi scenarijapotresno tveganjescenario-based seismic risk assessmentseismic riskseismic stress testseizmični stresni teststavbni fond v Slovenijitime-based seismic risk assessmentPotresno tveganje stavbnega fonda v Sloveniji| Seismic risk of the building stock in Slovenia|For rational decision-making regarding the strengthening of seismic resilience of the built environment, it is necessary to provide unbiased information about seismic risk, which cannot be achieved through experience due to the low frequency of major earthquakes. For this purpose, we perform two types of physics-based seismic risk analyses of the building stock in Slovenia. Time-based analysis enables the assessment of the average consequences of all possible earthquakes in the selected time interval, which form the basis for planning community seismic resilience. Scenario-based risk analysis evaluates the consequences of an earthquake event defined by earthquake magnitude and epicentre. The latter information is easier to understand and can also be useful for the emergency response units. Both analyses use a stochastic seismic fragility model of the building stock that accounts for uncertainties due to limited knowledge about buildings. The results of the time-based risk analysis indicate that the building stock most likely contains between 31 thousand and 168 thousand buildings or building parts that have a higher than 1% probability of exceeding the full damage state in 50 years, which could be the limit value for acceptable long-term risk. Based on the seismic risk analysis for the earthquake scenario defined by magnitude 6.1 and the epicentre 5 km north of the centre of Ljubljana, and taking into account the assumptions of the seismic risk model, we determined that the number of fatalities due to the considered earthquake would probably be between 57 and 1208. As the seismic risk in the Republic of Slovenia is too high, we proposed various measures for enhancing community seismic resilienceZa racionalno odločanje glede krepitve potresne odpornosti grajenega okolja je treba zagotoviti nepristranske informacije o potresnem tveganju, ki jih zaradi nizke frekventnosti močnih potresov ni mogoče vzpostaviti z izkušnjami. V ta namen izvedemo fizikalno osnovani analizi potresnega tveganja stavbnega fonda v Sloveniji. S časovno opredeljeno analizo potresnega tveganja ocenimo povprečne posledice vseh možnih potresov v izbranem časovnem intervalu, kar je osnova za načrtovanje krepitve potresne odpornosti skupnosti. Z analizo tveganja na osnovi potresnega scenarija pa se ovrednotijo posledice potresnega dogodka, določenega z magnitudo in epicentrom potresa. Te informacije so lažje razumljive in so lahko koristne tudi na področju civilne zaščite. V obeh analizah uporabimo stohastičen model potresne ranljivosti stavbnega fonda, ki upošteva negotovosti zaradi omejenega poznavanja stavb. Rezultati časovno opredeljene analize tveganja kažejo, da je v stavbnem fondu od 31 tisoč do 168 tisoč stavb oz. delov stavb, za katere je verjetnost prekoračitve stanja popolne poškodovanosti v 50 letih višja od 1 %, kar bi lahko predstavljalo mejno vrednost dolgoročno sprejemljivega tveganja. Z analizo potresnega tveganja na osnovi potresnega scenarija, ki jo izvedemo za potresni scenarij, definiran z magnitudo 6,1 in epicentrom 5 km severno od centra Ljubljane, ter ob upoštevanju predpostavk modela potresnega tveganja smo ugotovili, da bi število smrtnih žrtev zaradi izbranega potresa zelo verjetno znašalo med 57 in 1208. Ker je potresno tveganje v Republiki Sloveniji previsoko, smo predlagali različne ukrepe za krepitev potresne odpornosti skupnostiTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaZveza društev gradbenih inženirjev in tehnikov Slovenije