1120 KB0 KB2025Phiri, AndrewRaimi, Rasaqletnik:23številka:4str. 367–388, 485DOI:10.26493/1854-6935.23.367-388ISSN:1854-6935COBISSID_HOST:281256195URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-P8M6RSX5enUniversity of Primorska PressManaging global transitionsagricultural emissionsagricultural sectorARIMA forecastingenvironmental Kuznets curve (EKC)Južna Afrikakmetijske emisijekmetijski sektornapovedovanje z ARIMAokoljska Kuznetsova krivuljapragovni regresijski modelSouth Africathreshold regression modelAgricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa| a threshold regression and ARIMA forecasting approach|The purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of the agricultural sector on agricultural emissions in South Africa. To this end, we estimate an agricultural-induced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for South Africa between 1990 and 2022 using conventional and threshold regression frameworks. Our regression estimates reveal a ‘humped-shaped’ relationship between agricultural production and agricultural emissions, whereby agricultural production produces lower agricultural emissions above threshold estimates of 4,876 and 6,100 metric tons of CO2 emissions. Further investigations show that the South African economy has consistently remained above these thresholds since 2010. Moreover, a forecast analysis of the time series using ARIMA models shows that agricultural productionis (emissions are) on an upward (a downward) trajectory. However, the forecasting analysis also shows that the South African agricultural sector is not scheduled to reach the net-zero emissions target by 2050. Altogether, these findings imply that whilst South Africa had followed a trajectory of sustainable development prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the current trajectory may not be sufficient to attain the 2050 Sustainable Development GoalsNamen članka je preučiti vpliv kmetijskega sektorja na kmetijske emisije v Južni Afriki. V ta namen ocenjujemo kmetijsko pogojeno okoljsko Kuznetsovo krivuljo za Južno Afriko med letoma 1990 in 2022 z uporabo konvencionalnih ter pragovnih regresijskih okvirjev. Naše regresijske ocene razkrivajo »grbasto« razmerje med kmetijsko proizvodnjo in kmetijskimi emisijami, pri čemer kmetijska proizvodnja povzroča nižje kmetijske emisije nad pragovnimi ocenami 4.876 in 6.100 metričnih ton emisij CO2. Nadaljnje raziskave kažejo, da je južnoafriško gospodarstvo od leta 2010 dosledno ostalo nad temi pragovi. Poleg tega analiza napovedi časovnih vrst z uporabo modelov ARIMA kaže, da je kmetijska proizvodnja na naraščajoči (emisije pa na padajoči) poti. Vendar analiza napovedi tudi kaže, da južnoafriški kmetijski sektor ne bo dosegel cilja neto nič emisij do leta 2050. Skupaj ti izsledki pomenijo, da je Južna Afrika pred pandemijo covida-19 sledila poti trajnostnega razvoja, vendar trenutna pot morda ne bo zadostna za dosego ciljev trajnostnega razvoja do leta 2050TEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUniverza na Primorskem, Fakulteta za management