257 KB0 KB200520252018Erčulj, FraneUlaga, MajaZdolšek, Anžeštevilka:3/4letnik:66str. 32-41ISSN:0353-7455COBISSID:5454001URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-JAGDLA80slFakulteta za športŠport (Ljubljana)ekspertni sistemikošarkakošarkarjimorfološke lastnostimotorične sposobnostivalidacijaPraktična uporabnost reduciranega modela ekspertnega sistema potencialne uspešnosti v prostoru morfološko-motoričnih razsežnosti mladih košarkarjev|Based on expert knowledge and years of research, the Faculty of Sport, University of Ljubljana has developed many multi-stage models of expert systems for establishing basketball players' potential performance (their potential). This study presents and validates a heavily reduced model which is composed of three morphological and five motor dimensions that affect substantially playing performance in basketball. The results of the model validation that was based on measurements of 41 young basketball players from two national basketball teams (U15 and U16) as well as assessments of actual and prognostic performance made by six basketball experts (coaches) show a low correlation between the assessments of potential and playing performance, namely the correlation does not achieve the threshold of statistical significance. Correlation between assessments of potential and actual performance (r = 0.22) is slightly higher than that between assessments of potential and prognostic performance (r = 0.09). The low correlation undoubtedly requires a change in relations among variables is considered as well as a change in the definition of weights and normalisers. It is clear that the model will have to be expanded by a number of variables measuring abilities and characteristics that have not been included in the current modelNa osnovi ekspertnega znanja in večletnih raziskav smo na Fakulteti za šport Univerze v Ljubljani v preteklosti razvili številne večstopenjski modele ekspertnih sistemov za ugotavljanje potencialne uspešnosti (potenciala) košarkarjev. V pričujoči raziskavi predstavljamo in validiramo močno reduciran model, ki ga sestavljajo tri morfološke in pet motoričnih razsežnosti, ki pomembno vplivajo na uspešnost igranja košarke. Rezultati validacije modela na osnovi meritev 41 mladih košarkarjev dveh državnih reprezentanc (U15 in U16) in ocen aktualne in prognostične uspešnosti šestih košarkarskih ekspertov (trenerjev) kažejo na nizko stopnjo povezanosti med ocenami potencialne in igralne uspešnosti, ki ne dosega meje statistične značilnosti. Pri tem je povezanost med ocenami potencialne in aktualne uspešnosti (r = 0.22) nekoliko višja kot povezanost med ocenami potencialne in prognostične uspešnosti (r = 0.09). Nizka stopnja skladnosti vsekakor terja razmislek o spremembi odnosov med spremenljivkami ter drugačnem oblikovanju uteži in normalizatorjev. Predvsem pa bo očitno potrebno model razširiti z nekaterimi spremenljivkami, ki merijo sposobnosti in značilnosti, ki v pričujočem modelu niso zajeteTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUniverza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za šport