639 KB0 KB196520252025Svetličič, Marjanštevilka:2letnik:62str. 227-255ISSN:0040-3598DOI:10.51936/tip.62.2.227COBISSID_HOST:243925763URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-J6ANFIR5enFakulteta za družbene vedeTeorija in praksaeffectsekonomske krizeEvropska unijaGreat DepressionMednarodna trgovinaMednarodni gospodarski odnosinegotiationspogajanjapovračilarelatiationtarifetariffstrade wartrgovinska vojnaTrump, DonaldučinkiVelika DepresijaThe implications of Trump’s self-defeating 2025 trade war on the global economy|The biggest problem facing the world economy today is the intensification of neomercantilist policies reinforced by aggressive industrial policies. The USA has declared a trade war on the whole world, and most aggressively on China. The main objective of this article is therefore to find out what the consequences of this trade war for the countries attacked and the US economy are in view of the theory of tariff protection, claiming that in trade wars there are no winners, that all states lose, including the economy of the country that began the war. Among the countries attacked, we are particularly concerned with China and the EU and which policy options they may have available to react to, this trade war. Since this is not the first trade war in history, given that we already had one during the Great Depression in the 1930s, it is necessary to determine whether we have learned from these wars or are merely repeating the mistakes made at that time. It is clear that history has not taught us much. Although this trade war heralds tectonic shifts in the world economy, we conclude that better than reacting in panic is to design a wise, long-term reaction strategy. This is supported by an evaluation of the negotiation profile of the trade war’s initiator, President Trump, characterised by initial dramatizing and blackmailing. The analysis provides arguments concerning why the trade war is not expected to be carried out in such a dramatic way as it was started. All the negative consequences and unrealised objectives for the initiator’s economy will eventually become the basis for the gradual watering down of the most aggressive policy elementsNajvečji problem svetovnega gospodarstva dandanes je krepitev neomerkantilistične politike, okrepljene z agresivno industrijsko politiko. ZDA so napovedale trgovinsko vojno vsemu svetu, najbolj napadalno pa Kitajski. Glavni cilj članka je ugotoviti, kakšne so posledice te trgovinske vojne za napadene države in za ameriško gospodarstvo, skladno s teorijo carinske zaščite, ki pravi, da v trgovinskih vojnah ni zmagovalcev. Med napadenimi državami se posebej ukvarjamo s Kitajsko in z EU. Ker to ni prva takšna trgovinska vojna v zgodovini – odvijala se je že med veliko depresijo v tridesetih letih prejšnjega stoletja –, je bilo nujno treba ugotoviti, ali smo se iz teh vojn kaj naučili ali pa le ponavljamo že storjene napake. Očitno je, da nas zgodovina ni dosti naučila. Čeprav ta trgovinska vojna naznanja tektonske premike v svetovnem gospodarskem sistemu, ugotavljamo, da je bolj kot panična reakcija primeren premišljen dolgoročen pristop, kar podkrepljujemo tudi z analizo pogajalskega profila njenega pobudnika, predsednika Trumpa, katerega značilnosti sta namerno dramatiziranje in izsiljevanje. Ugotavljamo, da ni pričakovati tako drastičnega poteka trgovinske vojne, kot je bil njen začetek, saj se bodo sčasoma izkazale njene negativne posledice tudi za ameriško gospodarstvo in konkretne nosilce te politikeTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUniverza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za družbene vede