21 KB243 KB17 KB200620252009Ferbar, Janezštevilka:1/2letnik:55str. 113-116ISSN:0547-3101COBISSID:9772316URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-GRTJ9DC0slDruštvo ekonomistov MariborEkonomski center MariborEkonomsko-poslovna fakultetaNaše gospodarstvoborzeborzništvokalkulacijeBorzni mehurčki in racionalnost špekuliranja| Stock market bubbles and rationality of speculating|In this paper we analyze stock market bubbles and we question their existence. We argue that from the fundamental point of view it is impossible to identify a bubble immediately, but we have to wait a sufficient amount of time to determine whether prices can be justified by future cash flows. We also review other market constraints which show that on a market with rational expectations equilibrium, bubbles should not exist. However, empirical tests show that bubbles do exist and we analyze the behaviour of rational traders, or speculators, who are willing to pay more for an asset that they know they can later resell than they would be willing to pay if they had to keep the asset foreverV članku analiziramo borzne mehurčke in se sprašujemo o njihovem obstoju. S temeljnega vidika je namreč v času nastajanja mehurček nemogoče prepoznati, pač pa moramo počakati dovolj dolgo, da vidimo, če so bili tečaji morda upravičeni s prihodnjimi denarnimi tokovi. Navedemo tudi druge tržne omejitve, zaradi katerih borzni mehurčki na trgu z racionalnimi pričakovanji ne bi smeli obstajati. Ker pa empirični testi mehurčke potrjujejo, analiziramo vedenje racionalnih trgovcev - špekulantov, ki so zaradi možnosti kasnejše preprodaje ali/in kapitalskega dobička pripravljeni za finančni instrument plačati več, kot bi bili pripravljeni plačati, če bi ga morali zadržati za vednoTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUniverza v Mariboru, Ekonomsko-poslovna fakulteta