317 KB39 KB199420252017Ivajnšič, DanijelKaligarič, MitjaKožuh, Aljažštevilka:2letnik:27str. 97-106ISSN:1408-533XCOBISSID_HOST:24005896URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-0BGJSGNGenSocietá storica del LitoraleZgodovinsko društvo za južno PrimorskoAnnales. Series historia naturalisecological modellingekološko modeliranjeglobal warmingglobalno segrevanjehabitat suitabilityjelkaprimernost habitataRCPsilver firspecies range changesprememba arealaPotential distribution of silver fir (Abies alba) in southeastern Alpine and Dinaric phytogeographic regions of Slovenia and Croatia in the light of climate change|We studied the potential distribution of silver fi r (Abies alba Miller) in the Alpine and Dinaric phytogeographic regions of Slovenia and Croatia in the light of climate change. A decline of silver fi r in southern Europe due to summer droughts and heat has already been observed, along with the spread of its range towards the north-east in continental Europe due to a warmer climate with milder winters. In this study, we modelled habitat suitability for the silver fi r in regard to the most probable climate change scenarios. No major changes in habitat suitability were found in either region. Habitat suitability should slightly increase in the central and western parts of the Alpine region in more optimistic scenarios and on Pohorje and in the Dinaric region in more pessimistic scenarios. A more distinctive change of habitat suitability would probably be suppressed by weather extremes, such as summer drought and heat, a cold winter period, and extreme weather phenomenaTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaZgodovinsko društvo za južno Primorsko