66 KB511 KB73 KB199920252006Dolinar, MojcaMedved, SašoVidrih, Boris19 straniletnik:52številka:9str. 568-586ISSN:0039-2480COBISSID:9706011URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-O9253B4YenslAssociation of Mechanical Engineers and Technicians of Slovenia et al.Zveza strojnih inženirjev in tehnikov Slovenije et al.Strojniški vestnikmodeliranje numeričnopodnebne sprememberaba energijeSloveniaSlovenijatoplotna izolacijatoplotni odzivi stavbzgradbePovezava modela podnebnih sprememb z modelom toplotnega odziva stavb - primer Slovenije| The connection between the climate change model and a building's thermal response model: a case of Slovenia|The world's leading climatologists believe that global climate changes are inevitable. The basis for this is the fact that we are already facing climate changes that will become even more significant in the future. The impact of climate changes is and will be noticeable in all fields of human activity; therefore, it will also influence the supply and demand of energy. Since we are observing a longer period of time, comparable to the lifespan of a building, and the amount of energy demanded is an important factor, it is necessary to adjust the building and the renovation of buildings to the predicted climate changes. The prediction of a building's thermal response is the basis for the integral planning of the building and building services installation with which we create suitable living conditions. In order to predict the expected changes in the building's thermal response in the future it is necessary to correct the available meteorological variable databases today. In this paper we present various climate-change scenaria expected for Slovenia and the methods for correcting the starting points of the local meteorological databases. For the correction we used simplified mathematical models with which we - by forming test reference years (TRYs) - elaborate corrected test reference years (CTRYs). The latter are used for declaring the changes in energy demand in buildings and the effectiveness of a chosen building services installation that uses natural energy sources. As regards the predicted climate scenaria for the continental part of Slovenia, the energy use for heating buildings will be reduced by 1.5% to 31.4%. These climate changes will have a substantial influence on the thermal comfort in buildings during the summer. In the heavyweight and naturally ventilated residential buildings that are currently thermally comfortable, suitable summer temperatures will be exceeded during 20% to 33% of the summer. The effectiveness of natural and passive cooling techniques will radically change.In cooled buildings we can expect a 2-to-40-fold increase in the use offinal (end-use) cooling energy when compared to today. The results presentedin this paper confirm the fact that it is necessary to evaluate the consequences of global climate changes also from the point of view of energy use in buildings, their construction and building services installationsVodilni svetovni klimatologi menijo, da je celovito spreminjanje podnebja neizbežno. Temelj za tako razmišljanje je dejstvo, da se s podnebnimi spremembami že srečujemo, te spremembe pa naj bi bile v prihodnosti se bolj izrazite. Vplivi sprememb podnebja so in bodo opazni na vseh področjih človekovega delovanja, torej bodo vplivali tudi na oskrbo in rabo energije. Ker opazujemo dolgo časovno obdobje, ki je primerljivo z dobo trajanja stavb, raba energije v njih pa količinsko pomembna, je nujno, da gradnjo in obnovo stavb prilagodimo napovedanim podnebnim spremembam. Napoved toplotnega odziva stavb je osnova za celovito načrtovanje stavb in sistemov strojnih inštalacij,s katerimi v stavbah ustvarjamo primerno bivalno ugodje. Za napoved pričakovanega spreminjanja toplotnega odziva stavb v prihodnosti, je treba dandanes razpoložljive baze meteoroloških spremenljivk ustrezno popraviti. V prispevku prikazujemo različne scenarije podnebnih sprememb, ki jih pričakujemo na področju Slovenije in metode poprave izhodiščnih krajevnih meteoroloških baz. Za popravo uporabljamo poenostavljene prilagojene modele, s katerimi na podlagi metodologije oblikovanja testnih referenčnih let (TRL) izdelamo prilagojena testna referenčna leta (PTRL). Slednje nato uporabimo za napoved sprememb v rabi energije v stavbah in učinkovitosti izbranih naprav, ki uporabljajo naravne vire energije. Glede na napovedane podnebne scenarije za celinsko področje Slovenije se bo raba energije za ogrevanje stavb zmanjšala za 1,5 do 31,4 odstotkov. Bistveno bolj bodo napovedane podnebne spremembe vplivale na toplotno ugodje v stavbah poleti. Tudi v masivno grajenih stanovanjskih stavbah, ki so naravno prezračevane in v katerih je dandanes ustrezno toplotno ugodje, bodo primerne temperature poleti presežene v 20 do 33 odstotkih poletnega obdobja. Bistveno se bodo spremenile tudi učinkovitosti tehnik naravnega in aktivnega naravnega hlajenja. V hlajenih stavbah lahko pričakujemo med 2- do 40-krat večjo rabo koristne energije gledena sedanje stanje. Rezultati, predstavljeni v prispevku, potrjujejo, da je treba posledice globalnih podnebnih sprememb ocenjevati tudi z vidika rabe energije v stavbah in zasnovi stavb in sistemov strojnih instalacijTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUniverza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za strojništvo