84 KB439 KB29 KB2025Ploj, Gašper1 spletni vir (1 datoteka PDF (15 str.))COBISSID:251638787ISBN:978-961-7230-24-6URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-KJOABQEDenBanka Slovenijeknjigeelektronske knjigeEuroEvropska unijaObrestne mereSMA vs. ECB inflation forecasts: Which forecasts drive interest rate expectations in the euro area?|This short paper uses data from the ECB’s Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) to provide an overview of recent developments in euro area inflation and interest rate expectations and to assess how inflation dynamics influence the formation of interest rate expectations. Comparisons of SMA inflation expectations with the ECB’s (B)MPE projections show that differences in forecasted inflation are often pronounced and typically widen with the projection horizon. Despite this divergence, the forecasting performance of the SMA and (B)MPE was broadly comparable over 2021–2025, alt-hough the (B)MPE performed slightly better during the post-pandemic inflation surge. Analysis of how inflation forecast errors shape interest rate expectations reveals that SMA participants respond more strongly to errors relative to the (B)MPE than to those relative to their own inflation forecasts. This suggests that analysts participating in the SMA form their interest rate expectations mainly by observing how well inflation outcomes conform to the ECB’s inflation forecast. When inflation exceeds expecta-tions, interest rate expectations are revised upwards by more than one-for-one, con-sistent with both economic theory and the ECB policy reaction functionTEXTknjigebooksSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of Slovenia