.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) > "(5 VID <5 cB fN (V C Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XVIII / 2012 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik (Slovenia's world competitiveness according to the IMD 2012), Ana T. Selan, MSc (Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SORS Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................11 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................13 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................16 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................17 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................18 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................21 Slovenia's world competitiveness according to the IMD 2012................................................................................23 Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors.............................24 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 2 July 2012. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Short-term indicators indicate a continuation of weak economic activity in the euro area in the second quarter. In April, industrial production volume in manufacturing declined while construction put in place and turnover in retail trade continued to drop. The values of confidence indicators have also deteriorated visibly in recent months. In June, the conditions on government bond markets tightened further, also in light of the situation in Spain. This is also reflected in expectations, and the Consensus forecast for 2013 has already been revised downwards. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia show similar trends. Only the volume of production in manufacturing is somewhat higher than at the beginning of the year. With a decline in exports since the beginning of 2012, turnover in retail trade also started to shrink. In April, production volume in manufacturing was still higher than at the end of last year, largely on the back of increased production in hightech and medium-low-tech industries. Stagnating since January, real exports moved around the level seen at the beginning of last year. In April, construction activity plummeted again and remains subdued. Within that, nonresidential activity has been strengthening this year and in the last two months it was already higher than in 2011. In April, turnover in retail trade dropped to its two-year low in view of the persistent decline in turnover in the sale of food and non-food products, coupled with a contraction of turnover in the sale of automotive fuels in recent months. The number of registered unemployed people has been dropping in the last few months, mainly as a result of the government's policy towards unemployment, an increased dropout from the labour market and a lower inflow into unemployment, which is also attributable to the fact that people are losing motivation to register as unemployed. Employment dropped somewhat further in April (seasonally adjusted). A total of 106,796 persons were unemployed at the end of May, 7.9% fewer than in January. This can be partly explained by seasonal movements, but is also a consequence of government policies, higher transition into inactivity and a higher number of people who signed off voluntarily. The increase in the number of people who were deleted from the register or signed off voluntarily is, according to our estimate, also related to the enforcement of the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act (ZUPJS), as people lost interest in remaining registered or did not bother to register anew due to more restrictive eligibility criteria for social assistance. For these reasons and due to lower inflows into unemployment, unemployment will increase less than expected in our spring forecast. However, structural imbalances on the labour market nevertheless continue to grow. In May, the average duration of unemployment was 71 days longer than in May 2011. The share of long-term unemployed persons was visibly higher as well. In June, consumer prices dropped 0.6%, being 2.3% up year-on-year. June's deflation was marked primarily by a seasonal decline in prices of clothing, footwear and fruits, while prices of package holidays rose. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.4%. In April, the quality of banks' assets continued to decline; the volume of bad claims exceeded EUR 6 bn and their share climbed to 12.0% of the total exposure of banks. In the manufacturing sector, the quality of claims has been deteriorating strongly for the second month in a row. In the first four months of 2012, the volume of bad claims thus increased more than in 2011 as a whole. The risk of a decline in the quality of banks' assets is spreading to other sectors (besides the construction sector and loans related to takeover activities in the past), which can additionally aggravate the situation in Slovenia's banking system. Faced with a further deterioration of the quality of its assets, banks are increasingly creating additional impairments and provisions. The public finance deficit amounted to EUR 705 m in the first quarter. According to data on the consolidated balance of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 3.6 bn and general government expenditure EUR 4.3 bn. Revenue was 0.5% higher y-o-y (in the same period last year, 8.8% higher), expenditure 3.1% (last year, 3.9%). The strongest growth was recorded for expenditure on interest (38.7%) and the lowest for salaries, wages and other personnel expenditure and contributions (0.4%) and transfers to individuals and households (including pensions: 0.1%). According to our estimate, the latter is due to the enforcement of the ZUPJS and the fact that in February pensions were not adjusted to wages. Slovenia remains at the bottom of the rankings according to the IMD Competitiveness Yearbook 2012 (51st among 59 countries analysed). This year it dropped again in business efficiency and was at the very bottom of the surveyed countries on this indicator. It also remains very low in terms of government efficiency. As was the case last year, Slovenian respondents were much more pessimistic than in other countries with regard to the possibilities for doing business in Slovenia. According to the survey, Slovenia's key competitive advantages are its well-educated workforce and reliable infrastructure, while its competitiveness is hindered by an inefficient legal and regulatory framework and ineffective government and public institutions. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area show a continuation of weak economic activity in the second quarter this year. In April, industrial production volume in manufacturing shrank by 2.0% (seasonally adjusted) while construction output and turnover in retail trade continued to drop (-2.7% and -1.0%, respectively, seasonally adjusted). The values of confidence indicators have also deteriorated visibly in recent months. The manufacturing PMI1 for the euro area worsened markedly in the second quarter this year, indicating the lowest activity in the last three years. The contraction of activity is also shown by other indicators for the euro area (ESI), including Germany (Ifo, ZEW). These trends are also reflected in expectations: Consensus forecasts for 2013 have already been revised downwards by 0.7%, while the ECB left its forecast unchanged (0.0%-2.0%). Figure 2: Yields on ten-year government bonds ',^•12 a 6 c^ 4 - Slovenia -Italy - Spain -Portugal Ireland -----Germany Figure 1: PMI, manufacturing output —•—Euro area -Germany -----Italy -----France 70 65 60 55 -Austria 45 40 35 30 25 Source: Markit Economics. Note: PMI readings above 50 signal an increase in production, while readings below 50 indicate a decrease. The situation on government bond markets tightened further in June. The demand for top-rated bonds increased. The main reason for increased uncertainty is the tight conditions on financial markets in Spain, which requested EU assistance of up to EUR 62 bn. The rating agencies had already lowered significantly the credit ratings of Spain and its banks. During the crisis, Spain was strongly hit particularly in the area of real estate and construction, which, in turn, had severe consequences for the financial sector, as the exposure of Spanish banks to the real estate sector totalled around 30% of GDP. The renewed tightening of the situation is reflected in higher yields on 10-year government bonds of Spain and some other euro area countries with the greatest public finance problems, while the yields of government bonds with the highest rating (AAA) declined in the last two months. o - Source: Bloomberg. Interbank interest rates continued to decline in June. The three-month EURIBOR dropped to the lowest level in the last two years (0.66%), by a high of 92 b.p. since October 2011, when it first started to fall. Meanwhile, the three-month USD and CHF LIBOR rates remain almost unchanged (0.47% and 0.10%, respectively). In June the euro continued to lose value against the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The euro depreciated by 2.1% against the US dollar (to USD 1.253 per euro) and by 2.7% against the Japanese yen (to JPY 99.26 per euro). The euro thus recorded its three-year lows relative to these Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price In EUR (left axis) -----Price In USD (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.8 1.6 1.4 cc D m 1.2 <> CI D 1.0 0.8 0.6 o ^ ^ 1 Purchasing Managers Index. JO J, JO Source: ECB, EIA, calculations by IMAD. 16 14 8 2 0 50 two currencies in June. In June, the euro gained some value relative to the British pound sterling (by 0.3%, to GBP 0.806 to EUR 1), while it remained again practically unchanged again the Swiss franc (CHF 1.20 to EUR 1). Oil and non-energy commodity prices dropped considerably in June again. Prices of Brent crude oil fell below USD 100 a barrel again for the first time in over 18 months and then stabilised below USD 90 a barrel by the end of the month. The average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil totalled USD 95.1 per barrel in June, 13.9% less than in May (16.5% y-o-y). Euro prices dropped 11.1%, to EUR 76.5 a barrel (3.3% y-o-y). The fall in oil prices was followed by a considerable decline of non-energy commodity prices. According to the most recent IMF data, dollar prices of non-energy commodities dropped 3.4% in May (-14.2% y-o-y), largely due to a decline in metal prices (-5.0%). According to the provisional data, the decline also continued in June. Euro prices of non-energy commodities did not change much in the last two months (HWWI). Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia show that only production volume in manufacturing was somewhat higher than at the beginning of the year; with exports declining since the beginning of 2012, turnover also started to shrink in retail trade. In April, production volume in manufacturing was still higher than at the end of last year, largely on the back of increased production in more high-tech and medium-low-tech industries. Stagnating since January, real exports moved around the level seen at the beginning of last year. In April, construction activity plummeted again and remains Figure 4: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manufacturing Value of construction put in place Turnover in retail trade 40 subdued. Within that, non-residential activity has picked up this year. In the last two months it was already higher than in 2011. In April, turnover in retail trade dropped to its two-year low, in view of a persistent decline in turnover in the sale of food and non-food products, coupled with a further contraction of turnover in the sale of automotive fuels in April. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2011 IV 12/ III 12 IV 12/ IV 11 I-IV 12/ I-IV 11 Exports1 11.7 -8.4 -1.8 -0.7 -goods 13.3 -9.5 -2.2 -1.6 -services 4.8 -3.4 -0.2 3.4 Imports1 11.3 -11.1 -2.9 0.7 -goods 12.9 -11.9 -3.1 1.0 -services 2.0 -4.6 -1.8 -1.8 Industrial production 2.1 -0.62 3.73 1.03 -manufacturing 2.0 -1.12 3.63 0.63 Construction -value of construction put in place -25.6 -9.32 -14.13 -16.73 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -3.02 -3.43 -0.13 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Real exports and imports have been shrinking since the beginning of Q42011. In the first four months of this year they were lower than in the same period of 2011.2 We estimate that in the first four months of 2012 real merchandise exports declined by 1.1% and imports by 1.5% y-o-y. The beginning of the year saw a moderation in the y-o-y growth of nominal merchandise exports to the EU3 and to the countries of the former Yugoslavia. Having expanded by nearly 10% last year, exports of high- and mediumhigh-tech industries, accounting for more than half of total exports, were down 2.0% y-o-y in the first three months of 2012. This was attributable to a y-o-y decline in exports of motor vehicles, electrical appliances and pharmaceutical products. The y-o-y growth in exports of medium-low- and low-tech industries and electricity, an important driver of export growth in the preceding two years, eased notably. Looking at merchandise imports, consistent with a further decline in investment activity, nominal imports of investment goods were down y-o-y in the first four months largely on account of lower imports of transport equipment, while growth in imports of intermediate and consumer goods slowed y-o-y. C ^ C ^ C ^ 2 Real exports are estimated based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while the estimate of real imports is based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. Nominal data on the structure of merchandise exports and imports are available for the first three months of this year. 3 Looking at exports to Slovenia's main trading partners, nominal merchandise exports to Germany and Austria stagnated in Q1 2012, while exports to Italy grew somewhat and exports to France declined (seasonally adjusted). Figure 5: Nominal merchandise exports of the ten largest industries in total exports 12010/2009 2011/2010 iJan-Mar 2012 / Jan-Mar 2011 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Arranged according to the size of their shares in 2011, when they accounted for nearly three quarters of total merchandise exports. Nominal trade in services contracted in April (seasonally adjusted).4 Amid stagnant exports of travel, April's decline in services exports resulted from a fall in exports of the other three groups of services, particularly exports of other business services (by over a fifth). Although they dropped somewhat in April, imports of services have remained at a similar level since the beginning of 2010, with monthly fluctuations. April's decline reflected a further drop in imports of transport services and lower imports of other business services. Imports of other services5 stagnated, : Trade in services 400 E 375 350 300 != 275 i i i -Exports of services -f.......I........f...... .Imports of services Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. 5 When we adjusted data for seasonal effects, we included communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government while imports of travel rose somewhat after quite a while. In the first four months of this year, exports of services were up 3.4% y-o-y, while imports were down 1.8%. In April, production volume in manufacturing remained higher than at the end of last year. Production was up in more high-tech and medium-low-tech industries, where it also increased relative to the beginning of this year. In low-tech industries production dropped again, being lower than in the first quarter. In the first four months, production volume in manufacturing reached the level recorded in the same period last year. Production volume was up y-o-y in most industries with a higher degree of technology-intensity, except the production of transport equipment, which declined (largely on account of a moderation of foreign demand).6 Less technology-intensive industries recorded similar levels as in the same period last year, on average; production increased only in the leather industry (particularly the sector dependent on foreign demand in the luxury segment of the car manufacturing chain) and repair and installation of machinery and equipment (primarily due to new companies entering the industry). Figure 7: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity 25 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: The pharmaceutical industry -IMAD's estimate. services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. All these services combined account for just over a tenth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. 6 We estimate that the production of motor vehicles (SCA C 29.1) was down in particular, which is mainly related to lower demand in France. After the expiration of subsidies for new passenger car purchases at the beginning of last year, the demand in France shrank. According to ACEA, the number of new passenger car registrations in France was down 17.2% y-o-y in the first five months of 2012. 0 -10 Construction activity remains low. The value of construction put in place dropped 9.3% in April7 (seasonally adjusted) and remained much below that recorded in the same month last year (14.1%). In recent months, activity has declined most notably in civil engineering, which is related to the unfavourable public finance situation. Following a considerable decline in 2011, non-residential construction has picked up this year and it already exceeded last year's levels in March and April. In the first four months as a whole, residential construction was, with considerable fluctuations, at a similar level as in the same period last year. Figure 8: Value of construction put in place s 100 1= 90 ^ 80 70 ^^ 60 50 40 !S 30 20 -Construction -----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings - Civil-engineering works ?§ 85 85 J^ ji : Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The value of new contracts and the stock of contracts indicate no major increase in construction activity in the months to come. The value of new contracts in construction has otherwise strengthened somewhat since the beginning of the year, but remains lower than last year (in the first four months, it was 15.4% lower y-o-y; in April, the stock of contracts was down 15.3% y-o-y). Within the construction sector, the smallest declines were recorded in civil engineering, somewhat larger in non-residential construction and largest in residential construction. Real turnover in retail trade dropped more notably in April; turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles continued to decline; nominal turnover in wholesale trade stagnated (seasonally adjusted). Having stagnated in the past months, real turnover in retail trade declined relatively significantly in April. This was a consequence of lower turnover in the sale of automotive fuels, which had still been increasing at a remarkable rate at the beginning of the year, as well as a continuation of negative movements in the sale of food and non-food products amid the tightened labour market conditions. Real turnover in the 7 At the same time, the figure for March was revised upwards; according to the provisional data, the value of construction put in place was as much as 5.6% higher, which is the largest revision in the last three years. sale and repair of motor vehicles declined further in April as a result of a lower number of new passenger cars sold (to both natural and legal persons). Nominal turnover in wholesale trade has, with monthly fluctuations, remained roughly unchanged since autumn 2011 and still lags more behind the 2008 level than turnover in other trade sectors. Figure 9: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real -----of which, automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. (u 105 85 Source: SORS^ calculations byiIMAD. Household consumption remains low. Consumer confidence has deteriorated significantly in recent months. The net wage bill has been stagnant since February (seasonally adjusted). In April and May,8 turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels dropped to the lowest value since the onset of the crisis (being 13% Figure 10: Household consumption indicators !?110 80 70 iS 12 •-j 60 Jb -Turnover In retail trade excluding automotive fuels (left axis) - No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) ■ Net wage bill (left axis) ■ Consumer confdence indicator, seasonally adjusted (right axis) 10 \ ' , \ 'T tr ^ mI ■ 1 1; , ' ' .......i... \! ..4.......i......i i.......i..... "N.. i\ 1 'j /T......I.......f ; \ " = ^ t , 1 ^ ^ ^ -20 -30 c 85 Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. 8 Data for May are preliminary. ^ 110 0 90 50 lower than in 2008 as a whole, seasonally adjusted). New passenger car registrations also dropped again (close to 30% y-o-y). In the first five months of the year, the volume of household consumer loans thus also shrank more (by EUR 101 m) than in the same period last year (by EUR 50.2 m). The consumer confidence indicator fell significantly in the second quarter (by 10 points compared with the previous quarter), which is, besides in the last quarter of 2008, the largest decline since data have been available. The value of the indicator "major purchases in the next 12 months" dropped the most. All this indicates a further decline in consumption, particularly the consumption of durable goods. The value of the sentiment indicator declined again in June (seasonally adjusted). In recent months, consumer confidence has deteriorated the most, confidence in manufacturing and service activities dropped somewhat less. The confidence indicator remains highest in retail trade and lowest in construction. Labour market The labour market situation remains unfavourable. Employment according to the statistical register9 dropped somewhat in April (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted), being also lower y-o-y (-1.0%). Compared with April 2011, the number of employed persons was considerably lower in construction and agriculture, forestry and fishing, where it is a statistical estimation,10 while it was up in education and health. April's registered unemployment rate remained roughly the same as in the preceding month (11.7%, seasonally adjusted). Registered unemployment is declining due to the government's active policy towards unemployment, an increased dropout from the labour market and a lower inflow into unemployment. Unemployment declined in May; seasonally adjusted, it remained at April's level. A total of 106,796 persons were thus unemployed at the Figure 11: Business trends - Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Construction Figure 12: Selected categories of inflows to in and outflows from the unemployment register 40,000 Jan -May 2011 Jan -May 2012 E ii 0 -5,000 -10,000 -1 5,000 5Š J^ Source: SORS. Registered -lost Deleted - Deleted -public Deleted -work breach of duties works transition to inactivity and deregistration on own Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. initiative Table 2: Persons in employment by activity Number in '000 Change in umber 2011 IV 11 III 12 IV 12 11/10 IV 12/ III 12 IV 12/ IV 11 I-IV 12/ I-IV 11 Manufacturing 184.8 184.3 184.6 184.4 -3,725 -288 57 367 Construction 67.8 69.1 61.0 61.7 -10,709 684 -7,391 -8,710 Market services 342.2 343.2 340.7 339.8 -3,400 -889 -3,346 -1,347 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 109.7 110.0 108.6 108.5 -2,078 -120 -1,542 -1,139 Public services 170.2 170.1 172.4 172.8 1,406 425 2,695 2,606 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.4 51.5 50.9 51.1 -661 253 -358 -346 Education 64.7 64.7 66.0 66.1 1,145 38 1,337 1,292 Human health and social work activities 54.1 53.8 55.4 55.6 922 134 1,716 1,660 Other 59.0 60.2 55.7 58.2 5,355 2,488 -1,976 -2,295 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 9 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 10 SORS estimates the number of self-employed farmers based on data from the Labour Force Survey for the previous quarter. end of May, 7.9% fewer than in January. The decline is partly related to seasonal movements and partly to active government policies (increased participation in public works, a higher number of people deleted from the unemployment register for breach of duties), increased withdrawal from the labour force to inactivity (retirement, in particular) and more people signing off on their own initiative. The increase in the number of people who were deleted from the unemployment register or signed off can also be linked to the enforcement of the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act (ZUPJS), as in view of more restrictive eligibility criteria for social assistance, people lost interest in remaining registered or did not register at all. For these reasons and due to lower inflows into unemployment, unemployment seems likely to increase less than expected in the spring forecast. Structural imbalances on the labour market keep increasing, despite a decline in the number of the unemployed. This is evidenced by an increase in the average duration of unemployment, which was 690 days in May (71 more than in May 2011), and a higher share of long-term unemployed persons11 in total unemployment (51.5% in May, an increase of 6.8 p.p. over the same month in 2011). Figure 13: Average duration of unemployment and the share of long-term unemployed -Average duration of unemployment in days (left axis) -Share of long-term unemployed in total unemployment (right axis) 55 50 45 Table 3: Labour market indicators 40 ii 35 30 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. The growth of the average gross wage per employee continues to ease. In April, the average gross wage in the private sector12 remained at the level of March (seasonally adjusted). In the public sector it was somewhat higher 11 Persons registered as unemployed in the unemployment register of the ESS for a year or more. 12 From now on, we are going to comment mainly on data on wages in the private sector and in the public sector in the Slovenian Economic Mirror (within the latter, the general government in particular), and only exceptionally on wages in private sector activities and public service activities; for more see Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage recipients in the public and private sectors. in % 2011 IV 12/ III 12 IV 12/ IV 11 I-IV 12/ I-IV 11 Labour force -0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.1 Persons in formal employment -1.3 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.4 0.3 -0.9 -1.1 Registered unemployed 10.1 -3.6 -2.7 -1.1 Average nominal gross wage 2.0 -1.0 1.0 1.5 - private sector1 2.6 -2.0 0.6 1.3 - public sector1 1.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 -of which general government 0.0 0.1 -0.9 -0.4 2011 IV 11 III 12 IV 12 Rate of registered unemployment, in %, seasonally adjusted 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,524.65 1,504.65 1,535.11 1,519.12 Private sector1 (in EUR) 1,388.65 1,369.49 1,405.88 1,377.90 Public sector1 (in EUR) 1,778.45 1,756.62 1,770.25 1,776.84 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,801.27 1,802.89 1,786.26 1,787.41 Sources: ESS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. (0.2%, seasonally adjusted), which was mainly a result of wage growth in public companies, as wages in the general government declined (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted). In both sectors, the average y-o-y growth of wages is decelerating steadily, while in the general government, it was down somewhat y-o-y in the first four months. Amid somewhat higher inflation, the real y-o-y decline of wages is therefore every month larger (in April, -1.8% in the private sector, -2.0% in the public sector, of which -3.5% the general government). Figure 14: Average gross wage per employee, seasonally adjusted -Private sector -----Public sector — -of which general government (u 2,000 Sourc^: SORS. Tabela 4: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2011 IV 2012 2011/ 2010 IV 12/ III 12 IV 12/ IV 11 I-IV 12/ I-IV 11 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,451.57 1,446.58 2.6 -1.5 1.6 2.1 Industry (B-E) 1,408.91 1,399.90 3.6 -3.1 2.8 2.4 - of which manufacturing 1,362.79 1,355.54 3.9 -3.4 2.7 3.2 Construction 1,235.95 1,205.36 2.0 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 Traditional services (G-I) 1,349.67 1,359.72 2.7 1.0 2.0 1.9 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,718.65 1,707.17 0.7 -1.9 0.1 0.9 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,750.03 1,736.37 0.0 0.1 -0.9 -0.5 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,784.27 1,763.12 0.3 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 - Education 1,733.58 1,709.78 0.2 -1.2 -1.5 -0.6 - Human health and social work activities 1,735.19 1,742.69 -0.7 1.9 -0.3 -0.4 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In the pre-crlsis period, Individual groups of private sector activities recorded were similar movements of wages, but with the onset of the crisis wage growth dynamics started to diverse. All groups of activities responded to the crisis immediately and in a uniform way, by reducing overtime work. Wages thus dropped substantially at the beginning of 2009. Then wage growth accelerated again, partly due to the technical effect of changes in employment structure, but even more due to the increase in the minimum wage at the beginning of 2010. Since then, the wage growth gap between individual groups of activities has been widening. In April 2012, the gross wage per employee in industry (B-E) was thus 17.2% higher, seasonally adjusted, than in the second quarter of 2008 (i.e. before the beginning of the crisis); in traditional market services (G-I) 10.2% higher; in construction and other market services (J-N; R-S; it eased most notably in financial-insurance activities) only 6.6% or 5.3% higher, respectively. Figure 15: Gross wage per employee, groups of private sector activities, seasonally adjusted 90 ■ Industry - Construction - Traditional services • Other market services Prices In June, consumer prices dropped 0.6% and recorded 2.3% y-o-y growth. In line with expectations, June saw deflation, which was marked primarily by a seasonal decline in prices of clothing and footwear (contributing -0.3 p.p. to deflation) and fruits (-0.3 p.p.), while prices of package holidays rose (0.3 p.p.). According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.4%. Figure 16: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area ■Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation ■ Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat. The current price movement in May is characterised by seasonally higher prices of fruits, clothing and footwear and lower prices of liquid fuels, while long-term movements remain under the impact of subdued economic activity. In the first five months of the year, price growth (2.8%) was mainly impacted by prices of food (a contribution of 1.0 p.p.) and energy (0.8 p.p.). In May, the price movement was 8 6 5 4 3 2 0 Table 5: Breakdown of HICP in sub-groups - May 2012 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 2.8 100.0 2.8 1.4 100.0 1.4 Goods 3.7 66.0 2.4 1.8 58.5 1.1 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 1.7 15.4 0.3 1.2 11.9 0.1 Non-processed food 10.5 7.3 0.8 2.3 7.2 0.2 Non-energy industrial goods 1.7 28.8 0.5 1.0 28.5 0.3 Durables -0.3 10.6 0.0 -0.2 9.0 0.0 Non-durables 1.1 8.8 0.1 1.0 8.2 0.1 Semi-durables 5.4 9.4 0.5 2.4 11.2 0.3 Energy 6.0 14.5 0.9 5.0 11.0 0.5 Electricity for households 4.2 2.7 0.1 3.9 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 2.6 1.1 0.0 3.3 1.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 7.2 1.7 0.1 4.0 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -6.1 0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 District heating 7.6 0.9 0.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 8.2 7.2 0.6 6.8 4.9 0.3 Services 1.2 34.0 0.4 0.4 41.5 0.2 Services - dwellings -0.4 3.0 0.0 0.9 10.1 0.1 Services - transport 1.8 5.9 0.1 1.6 6.5 0.1 Services - communications 0.5 3.5 0.0 -1.7 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 1.9 13.5 0.3 0.0 14.5 0.0 Services - other services 0.8 8.1 0.1 1.0 7.3 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.5 78.2 1.2 0.6 81.8 0.5 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification Figure 17: Structure of y-o-y inflation 8 ^ 5 1= 4 <2 3 o ^^ 2 J? i? i? Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. reduced growth by 0.2 p.p. Long-term movements of inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area remain marked by weak economic activity. The absence of inflationary pressures is also reflected in core inflation, which moves around 1.5% in Slovenia. Growth in industrial producer prices remains low. The y-o-y growth of producer prices on the domestic market was up relative to the preceding month (0.6 p.p) and totalled 1.3%. The low growth is chiefly due to price growth in the manufacture of food products (1.6%), a y-o-y decline of prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products and moderate price movements in most other manufacturing industries. The y-o-y growth of manufactured goods on foreign markets remains moderate and at the same level as in the previous two months (0.8%). The low y-o-y price rises on the domestic market and abroad continue to reflect subdued domestic economic activity, coupled with weak demand and the absence of price shocks from the international environment. largely due to seasonal fluctuations. Monthly growth was influenced by further price rises in clothing and footwear (0.3 p.p.) and higher prices of seasonal fruits, which rose by around 27% in May and contributed 0.3 p.p. to the 0.6% monthly growth. On the other hand, lower liquid fuel prices as a result of the movement of raw material prices on world markets and unchanged excise duty rates The slowdown of industrial producer prices in the euro area is reflected in a moderation of import prices in Slovenia. Since May 2011, the y-o-y growth of industrial producer prices in the euro area declined from 5.8% to around 1.8%, according to Eurostat's flash estimate. Similar movements of y-o-y growth rates were also recorded in Slovenia (5.4% and 1.2%, respectively). 7 6 ^ 1 0 Figure 18: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabric. metal prod.; exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) -----Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign markets) 16 12 8 4 0 1-4 -8 -12 In May, the price competitiveness of the economy improved again due to the depreciation of the euro but less than in most other euro area Member States. The real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP dropped both monthly and y-o-y in May due to a decline in the value of the euro, particularly against the USD, JPY, GBP and CHF. In May, relative prices rose compared with the previous month, while stagnating at last year's level y-o-y. The low value of the euro also decisively contributed to the improvement of the price competitiveness of the economy in the first five months as a whole. As was the case in previous months, the improvement was among the smallest in the euro area, as the positive effects of the lower value of the euro on Slovenia's price competitiveness were relatively smaller due to the geographical structure of its external trade. Figure 19: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries deflated by HICP ■ May 2012 / Dec 2011 "Jan - May 2012 / an - May 2011 In the first quarter, the cost competitiveness of the economy improved y-o-y due to the decline of the euro and relative unit labour costs. The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative growth in unit labour costs was down 1.3% y-o-y.13 As in most other EU countries,14 real unit labour costs rose y-o-y in the first quarter, but their growth was one of the lowest in the EU. After declining in the last quarter, labour productivity rose again in the first quarter (0.6% in real terms), albeit somewhat less than the compensation per employee (0.8% in real15 terms). In most other EU countries, the lag of labour productivity growth behind wage growth was more pronounced. A third of countries recorded lower real unit labour costs. Despite the relatively more favourable movements at the beginning of the year, Slovenia remains in the group of Figure 20: Real effective exchange rate deflated by ULC ^HREER ULC -Relative ULC -----NEER a a a Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Figure 21:Real unit labour costs RULC Labour productivity, real Compensation per employee, real a a a Source: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD. 13 IMAD's estimate, as the ECB's data for the first quarter are not yet available. 14 Data for the first quarter of 2012 are available for 22 EU countries. 15 Deflated by the GDP deflator. 14 0 Table 6: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness y-o-y growth rates, % 2010 2011 q2 11 q3 11 q4 11 q1 12 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -2.1 -0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 Real, deflator HICP -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.8 Real, deflator ULC -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 -1.3 Unit labour costs, economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 Compensation of employees per employee, nominal 4.3 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.9 1.6 Labour productivity, real 4.0 1.6 2.5 1.2 -1.5 0.6 Real unit labour costs 1.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.2 Labour productivity, nominal 2.9 2.4 2.9 1.8 0.2 1.4 Source: SORS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 against 36 trading partners, according to ECB. Figure 22: Real unit labour costs in selected EU countries, Q12012 --:-^- , ■ Labour productivity, real ••4 ■ Compensation per employee, real ' ♦RULC Q1 2012 / Q1 2011 Source: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD. euro area and EU countries with the greatest losses of cost competitiveness during the crisis.16 Balance of payments In the first four months the current account of the balance of payments was practically balanced (a surplus of EUR 104.9 m in the same period last year). The favourable movements in external trade continued. In contrast, the balance of current transfers and the balance of factor incomes deteriorated y-o-y. External trade was in surplus again in April. The improvement of the balance of trade (a surplus of EUR 7.2 m; in April 2011, a deficit of EUR 73.1 m) was largely due to the widening of the surplus in trade with non-EU countries. The merchandise deficit totalled EUR 229.9 m 16 With regard to the strengthening of the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative unit labour costs in the time of the crisis, it was third in the euro area (the figure of the 2008-2011 period); in terms of growth in real unit labour costs, it was second in the EU (the figure for the 2008-q12012 period for 22 Member States). Figure 23: Components of the current account balance, in EUR m I Merchandise trade I Factor incomes -Current account I Services trade I Current transfers 300 200 100 0 i -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 Source: BS. in the first four months of this year, compared with EUR 300.3 m in the same period last year. In April, the surplus in trade in services was somewhat higher y-o-y, largely on account of a wider surplus in trade in travel and transport services. In the first four months, the services balance recorded a surplus of EUR 528.1 m, EUR 67.5 m more than in the comparable period of 2011. In April, the deficit of the balance of factor incomes widened y-o -y again, while the balance of current transfers recorded a deficit after last year's surplus. Payments of dividends and other profits to foreign direct investors rose in particular in April, while income on Slovenian direct investment abroad declined. The total net interest payments abroad remained unchanged. In the first four months of the year, the deficit in the balance of factor incomes remained higher y-o-y, which is related to tighter borrowing conditions. In April, the y-o-y deterioration of the balance of current transfers resulted from lower absorption of funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy. In the first four months, the balance of current transfers recorded a deficit of EUR 37.1 m (a surplus of EUR 79.1 m in the same period last year). Table 7: Balance of payments I-IV 12, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - IV 11 Current account 9,141.1 9,138.7 2.5 104.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 7,008.0 7,237.8 -229.9 -300.3 - Services 1,502.3 974.1 528.1 460.7 - Income 209.0 467.6 -258.6 -134.6 Current transfers 421.9 459.1 -37.1 79.1 Capital and financial account 3,010.7 -2,962.4 48.3 66.1 - Capital account 108.9 -76.8 32.1 -8.9 - Capital transfers 108.5 -76.4 32.1 -7.4 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.4 -0.4 0.0 -1.5 - Financial account 2,901.8 -2,885.5 16.2 75.0 - Direct investment 150.1 -13.6 136.5 80.3 - Portfolio investment 131.4 -957.8 -826.5 2,230.8 - Financial derivates 8.0 -8.5 -0.5 -84.5 - Other investment 2,573.9 -1,905.6 668.3 -2,173.6 - Assets 14.1 -1,842.0 -1,827.9 -1,446.7 - Liabilities 2,559.8 -63.6 2,496.2 -726.9 - Reserve assets 38.4 0.0 38.4 21.9 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -50.8 -50.8 -171.0 Source: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. External financial transactions recorded a net outflow again in April, in the amount of EUR 146.8 m (in the first four months as a whole, EUR 22.2 m); in the same month last year, a net inflow of EUR 6.5 m (EUR 53.0 m). In April, portfolio investment saw a net inflow (EUR 109.9 m). Specifically, the BS was selling capital market instruments and thus decreased the value of its financial assets. Direct investment flows remained weak (a net outflow of EUR 75.5 m), with inter-company crediting still accounting for the largest share. Other investment registered a net outflow (EUR 179.5 m). The bulk of capital flows were outflows of currency and deposits of commercial banks and households from the domestic banking system. On the other hand, the BS borrowed from the Eurosystem Figure 24: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument, in EUR m ^^m Direct investment Portfolio investment ^^m Financial derivatives ^^ Other investment -Net financial flow 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 E cc 0 J= -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 Ji again, but much less (EUR 110.0 m) than in the first quarter (EUR 2.6 bn). Financial markets In May, the volume of Slovenian bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors continued to decline. Corporate and NFI loans were declining most rapidly again; government loans also shrank somewhat, while household loans remained unchanged. Banks keep repaying foreign loans. Household bank deposits declined, while government deposits increased. In May, the volume of household loans remained unchanged. Households continued to repay consumer loans and, to a lesser extent, loans for other purposes. Housing loans kept growing, albeit modesty. In the first five months of the year, the volume of household loans shrank by EUR 73 m. In May, corporate and NFI loans started to decline more rapidly. Corporate and NFI loans decreased by EUR 71.2 m, mainly on account of the deleveraging of enterprises. The volume of corporate and NFI loans was down EUR 126.7 m in the first five months. In April, enterprises and NFIs were net repaying foreign loans again. Net repayments amounted close to EUR 20 m and resulted from net repayments of short-term loans; net flows of long-term loans were positive, though fairly modest. Data on absorption and repayment of foreign loans indicate significantly higher activity of Slovenian enterprises and NFIs in the segment of short-term loans. In the first four months of 2012, corporate and NFI net repayments abroad totalled just below EUR 10 m. The differences between Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 11 31. V 12 31.V12/ 31. IV 12 31.V 12/ 31. XII 11 31.V12/ 31. V 11 Loans total 32,733.86 32,844.41 -0.2 0.3 -2.0 Enterprises and NFI 22,065.54 21,938.86 -0.3 -0.6 -4.5 Government 1,214.88 1,525.32 -0.4 25.6 31.5 Households 9,453.45 9,380.23 0.0 -0.8 0.0 Consumer credits 2,723.04 2,622.19 -0.6 -3.7 -5.8 Lending for house purchase 5,163.55 5,223.49 0.3 1.2 4.0 Other lending 1,566.85 1,534.54 0.0 -2.1 -2.8 Bank deposits total 15,097.17 15,229.41 -0.2 0.9 1.1 Overnight deposits 6,440.82 6,545.80 0.7 1.6 0.9 Short-term deposits 4,127.66 4,070.66 -2.0 -1.4 -5.1 Long-term deposits 4,521.12 4,605.19 0.3 1.9 7.5 Deposits redeemable at notice 7.57 7.77 -3.0 2.6 13.5 Mutual funds 1,810.64 1,799.00 -4.5 -0.6 -12.1 Government bank deposits, total 2,848.94 2,585.67 5.7 -9.2 -18.8 Overnight deposits 139.72 39.04 -46.3 -72.1 273.0 Short-term deposits 694.47 551.27 31.0 -20.6 -54.1 Long-term deposits 2,013.33 1,991.57 2.2 -1.1 0.9 Deposits redeemable at notice 1.42 3.79 -8.2 167.2 37,769.1 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. corporate, NFI and Figure 25: Increase in household, government loans Households Enterprises and NFIs ■ ■ Government - -Total 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 E 0 J^ -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 5Š J^ s Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans remain above 210 b.p. Bank sources remain limited. In May, banks increased deleveraging abroad again, as the volume of deposits and loans from foreign banks declined by over EUR 350 m. In the first five months, the liabilities to foreign banks declined by a high of EUR 1.4 bn. In May, government deposits in domestic banks grew by almost EUR 140 m, largely on the back of higher short-term deposits. Government deposits nevertheless dropped more than EUR 260 m in the first five months. After strengthening somewhat at the beginning of the year, the inflows of household deposits to banks eased significantly. In May, household deposits contracted by EUR 27.1 m, mainly due to a decline in short-term deposits; the inflows of long-term deposits were modest as well. Household deposits thus rose by a mere EUR 130 m in the first five months of the year. The quality of banks' assets continued to decline in April and is at high risk of further deterioration, according to our estimate. The volume of bad claims grew by almost EUR Figure 26: Creation of additional impairments and provisions and the movements of the share of non-performing and bad claims Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) -Share of bad claims (right axis) 390 360 330 300 270 240 E210 180 m 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 100 m, exceeding EUR 6 bn. The share of bad claims thus climbed to as much as 12.0% of the banks' total exposure. The quality of claims on the manufacturing sector was deteriorating more notably for the second consecutive month. In the first four months of 2012, the volume of bad claims on the manufacturing sector thus rose by nearly EUR 140 m, more than in 2011 as a whole. The risk of deterioration in the quality of banks' assets is also spreading to other sectors (besides the construction sector and loans related to takeover activities in the past), which can additionally aggravate the situation in the Slovenian banking system. Faced with a further deterioration of the quality of their assets, banks are increasingly creating additional impairments and provisions, which totalled EUR 63.7 m in May and over EUR 300 m in the first five months of this year. Public finance In the first five months of 2012, revenue from taxes and social security contributions17 totalled EUR 5.5 bn, 0.5% less than in the same period last year. Looking at the main categories of taxes and contributions, y-o-y growth was due to revenues from social contributions (0.9 p.p.) and excise duties18 (0.6 p.p.). The total growth declined due to lower revenues from corporate income tax (by 1.4 p.p.), personal income tax (0.3 p.p.) and value added tax (0.3 p.p.). With unchanged contribution rates, social security contributions followed the wage bill movement. Revenue from excise duties was up y-o-y in the first five months, largely on account of higher revenue from excise duties on energy (8.3%) due to higher sales of main energy products.19 Excise duty rates on alcohol and alcohol products and tobacco and tobacco products were raised in April, but in May the inflows of excise duties from these two groups were nevertheless lower y-o-y (from alcohol, 11.8%; from cigarettes, 5.3%), which indicates a further decline in the quantities sold. In the first five months, revenue from corporate income tax shrank y-o-y as a result of the tax assessments based on business results for 2011 and lower monthly prepayments than in 2011. May's inflows of value added tax were also much lower y-o-y (7.2%); after the stagnation in the first four months, they were down 1.3% y-o-y in the first five months as a whole. According to the consolidated balance20 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 3.6 bn and general government expenditure EUR 4.3 bn in the first three months of 2012. In the first three months, revenue was 0.5% higher y-o-y (in the same period last year, 8.8%) and expenditure 3.1% (3.9%). Within the economic structure of expenditure, expenditure on interest recorded the strongest growth (38.7%). Payments to the EU budget also grew significantly (16.2%). Expenditure on subsidies (3.2%) and capital expenditure and capital transfers (4.2%) recorded more moderate y-o-y growth, as did salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures (0.4%). The y-o-y growth of transfers to individuals and households eased further (0.1%, in total; excluding pensions, the transfers to individuals and households shrank by 2.4%). In the first three months of the year, expenditure on transfers to the unemployed was down y-o-y (-10.7%) for the third month in a row after a long period of growth. Social security transfers remained lower y-o-y (-8.4%). Family benefits and parental compensations were also down for the second successive month (-3.9%) after a long period of stable growth. We estimate that the falling of individual categories of transfers is due to the beginning of the enforcement of the ZUPJS21 and problems related to its implementation. Expenditure on sickness rose y-o-y in the first three months (9.7%). The y-o-y growth of expenditure on pensions slowed in the first three months, totalling 1.7% (last year, 3.8%), as in February pensions were not valorised because of the freeze on pensions after the adoption of the intervention law. Table 9: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-V 12 V 12/ V 11 I-V 12/I-V 11 I-V 11 I-V 12 General government revenue - total 5,468.1 -4.5 -0.5 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 227.7 -26.6 -25.4 5.6 4.2 Personal income tax 844.6 -14.7 -2.1 15.7 15.4 Value added tax 1,215.7 -7.2 -1.3 22.4 22.2 Excise duties 602.5 7.9 5.9 10.3 11.0 Social security contributions 2,170.9 1.2 2.3 38.6 39.7 Other general government revenues 406.7 -4.7 0.1 7.4 7.4 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Note: *The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 17 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-May 2012, Public Payments Administration. 18 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 19 In the period from January to April 2012, the sales of main mineral oils were 7.9% higher y-o-y (of which D-2 by as much as 19.4%), while the sales of tobacco and tobacco products were 1.8% lower and the sales of alcohol and alcoholic beverages 5.4% lower. 20 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). 21 The law entered into force on 1 January 2012. Figure 27: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 - General government revenue -General government expenditure ......i" 1,100 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. The public deficit amounted to EUR 705 m in the first three months as a whole. The state budget deficit was EUR 696 m in the first three months, EUR 114 m more than in the same period of last year (EUR 591 m). The health fund recorded a deficit of EUR 35 m, the same amount as last year. The total balance of local government budgets had a surplus of EUR 23 m in the first quarter. The transfer from the state budget to the pension fund (all obligations) totalled EUR 307.4 m in the first three months of this year, EUR 45.6 m less than in the same period last year. In May, receipts from the EU budget, payments to the EU budget and the net budgetary position remained at previous month's levels. Slovenia received EUR 53.4 m from the EU budget, nearly the same amount as in the previous month. Payments to the EU budget were also roughly the same as in April (EUR 32.5 m); Slovenia's positive net budgetary position was at April's level as well, close to EUR 21 m, a third less than in May 2011. The bulk of May's receipts were payments from structural funds (almost EUR 55 m), which recorded the same realisation in the first five months (just below 30% of the foreseen level) as receipts from the Cohesion Fund (these totalled EUR 7.2 m in May). As regards the absorption of funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, there was no visible activity in May. In the first five months, Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive, in the amount of EUR 68 m, which is half less than in the same period last year. Figure 28: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2012 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2011 ■ Tota l receipts in 2012 (Janua ry-May) I Total receipts in 2011 (January-December) 100 200 300 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 400 500 Table 10: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2011 2012 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-III 12 EUR m I-III 12/ I-III 11 Revenue - total 14,981.3 42.0 1.3 3,618.1 0.5 - Tax revenues 13,209.3 37.1 2.8 3,172.7 0.5 - Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 7.6 9.3 629.5 -0.9 - Social security contributions 5,267.6 14.8 0.6 1,342.5 3.2 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,856.4 13.6 1.6 1,164.0 -0.1 - Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 2.3 12.5 195.6 -12.6 Expenditure - total 16,543.8 46.4 -0.9 4,323.5 3.1 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,882.8 10.9 -0.8 971.2 0.4 - Purchases of goods and services 2,442.0 6.9 -2.7 576.3 -1.5 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 526.6 1.5 7.9 431.8 38.7 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,533.1 18.3 4.1 1,608.8 0.1 - Capital expenditure 1,023.0 2.9 -21.6 164.9 -2.4 - Capital transfers 371.7 1.0 -4.3 45.7 7.9 - Payment to the EU budget 405.1 1.1 2.1 161.8 16.2 Deficit -1,562.4 -4.4 - -705.4 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Slovenia's world competitiveness according to the IMD 2012 Slovenia remains at the bottom of the competitiveness scale according to the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2012. This year's survey includes 329 indicators, with survey data representing a weight of approximately one third in the overall ranking and statistical data two thirds. Slovenia is ranked 51s' out of all 59 countries analysed, which is the same place as last year, but it improved its position by one place with regard to the EU countries22 included in the survey (21s'). As in previous years, Hong Kong, the US and Switzerland top the list again, and among EU countries, Sweden and Germany. Slovenia dropped again in business efficiency, ranking at the very bottom of the scale on this indicator. It also remains very low in terms of government efficiency. As was the case last year, there is a fairly high level of dissatisfaction with the current situation in Slovenia, the possibilities for doing business in particular, as respondents were much more pessimistic in this respect than in other countries. The survey finds Slovenia's key competitive advantages in its well-educated workforce and reliable infrastructure, while its competitiveness is hindered by an inefficient legal and regulatory framework and ineffective government and public administration. According to IMD estimates, economic performance in Slovenia has deteriorated considerably since the beginning of the crisis.23 Slovenia has slipped by 18 places in this area, most notably on the indicators of domestic economy24 (34 ranks) and employment (10 ranks) where it also fell considerably last year. The managers surveyed are still considering moving services, research and development and production abroad, which is a sign of export and cost competitiveness problems. Slovenia's rankings on these indicators have deteriorated since the beginning of the crisis, which indicates a deterioration of the business environment. Table 11: IMD world competitiveness indicators by main groups and sub-groups Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Overall competitiveness 40 32 + 32 o 52 - 51 + 51 o Economic performance 24 25 + 21 + 42 - 43 - 43 o Domestic economy 24 22 + 16 + 52 - 50 + 56 - International trade 21 10 + 19 29 41 26 + International investment 50 54 o 53 + 55 - 58 - 57 + Employment 28 39 29 + 36 46 49 Prices 2 8 - 12 - 15 - 8 + 2 + Government efficiency 43 43 o 38 + 53 - 53 o 53 o Public finance 17 21 14 + 44 42 + 56 Fiscal policy 47 51 - 49 + 53 - 53 o 51 + Institutional framework 35 33 + 30 + 46 53 52 + Business legislation 51 47 + 39 + 49 - 50 - 47 + Social framework 31 37 30 + 46 34 + 42 Business efficiency 43 32 + 39 - 57 - 56 + 57 - Productivity & efficiency 33 18 + 21 - 50 - 37 + 40 - Labour market 42 39 + 40 54 54 o 51 + Financial markets 43 28 + 41 - 53 - 56 - 57 - Management practices 37 30 + 39 54 57 56 + Attitudes and values 51 46 + 47 - 57 - 57 o 56 + Infrastructure 33 29 + 27 + 34 - 31 + 33 - Basic infrastructure 32 33 35 40 40 o 38 + Technological infrastructure 33 28 + 31 - 36 - 37 - 40 - Scientific infrastructure 33 32 + 30 + 38 37 + 35 + Health and environment 34 30 + 25 + 30 - 29 + 29 o Education 26 27 23 + 25 26 26 o Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbooks between 2007 and 2012. Note: Rank means Slovenia's ranking among 55 countries in 2007 and 2008, 57 countries in 2009, 58 countries in 2010 and 59 countries in 2011 and 2012; means a rise in Slovenia's ranking relative to the previous year, while incicates a fall. "o" that there was no change. 22 The survey includes 24 EU Member States (without Cyprus, Malta and Latvia). 23 The pre-crisis benchmark is the IMD survey from 2008, which is based on statistical data from 2007 and survey data from the first half of 2008; however, it should be noted that due to this time lag certain macroeconomic indicators also improved in the survey from 2009. 24 The domestic economy indicators are mainly macroeconomic indicators, such as real GDP growth. Government efficiency, which is essential for the proper functioning of the economy, is low (53rd place) in comparison with that in other countries. The public finance situation has deteriorated more than in other countries since the beginning of the crisis (by 35 ranks). In this area the 2012 survey recorded the largest decline (by 14 ranks), largely on account of the high government budget deficit. A significant deterioration was also recorded for the institutional framework (by 19 ranks), as the IMD points to a widespread dissatisfaction of managers with the low adaptability of government policies to changes in the economy and the inefficiency in implementing government decisions. The rating of business legislation remains low, being dragged down particularly by rigid labour regulations. Another important weakness stressed by the IMD is the inefficiency of the state ownership of companies, which has not improved much despite certain measures (the establishment of the Capital Assets Management Agency/AUKN). In business efficiency Slovenia has slipped significantly (by 25 ranks) during the crisis and is ranked at the end of the countries covered in the IMD survey. The low ranking is, among other things, a result of low labour productivity, which has not improved much in the last two years. Another significant obstacle in doing business is business finance. Slovenia has dropped by as many as 29 places on this indicator during the crisis. Bulgaria is thus the only EU countries that is ranked lower on the scale. The main barriers according to this indicator are high corporate debt and low availability of financial resources for businesses, which declined further last year. In addition to financial factors, Slovenia's business efficiency is significantly impeded by a lack of good practices in the business environment, as Slovenia has been at the bottom of analysed countries regarding the effectiveness of corporate boards, credibility of managers and implementation of auditing and accounting practices for several years. Slovenia scores best in infrastructure (32nd), but this ranking has also deteriorated in recent years. In comparison with other countries, Slovenia has slipped largely in technological infrastructure and legal and regulatory framework, which insufficiently supports and stimulates R&D activities, innovations and technological development. Among Slovenia's main advantages the IMD cites secondary education and relatively high expenditure on education and health, as well as increased investments in research and development, which were the highest so far in 2010. Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors The purpose of this chapter is to draw attention to differences in the definitions, names and coverage of the public sector and the private sector and to show the movements of wages and wage earners according to different sources and definitions. SORS has recently published data (also on earnings) for the public sector25 in line with the national accounts definition and then started to publish data on earnings in the public and private sectors in the Figure 29: Wages, different definitions of the public sector, in EUR -Public sector SORS - General government sector SORS 1,900 ---Public sector AJPES ---Public service activities IMAD 1,300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 1 Source: SORS, AJPES; calculations by IMAD. Figure 30: Number of wage earners, different definitions of the public sector -Public sector SORS -General government sector SORS .....Public sector AJPES -----Public service activities IMAD 260 12 240 r 220 ■S IS0 160 a a a a a a Source: SORS, AJPES; calculations by IMAD. 25 Javni sektor in sektor država (The public sector and the general government sector), available at http://www.stat.si/novica_prikazi. aspx?id=4673. 200 140 Table 12: Different definitions of the public sector Institution Definition, name Observation unit Source of definition Coverage Source of data Definition of the number of wage earners taken into account in calculating the average wage per employee Public sector Legal persons1 in the public sector National accounts statistics, SKIS2 SORS General government (see below) and public corporations. Public corporations are corporations under control by units of the general government sector. The basic criterion for determining control is majority ownership (more than half of the voting shares). Public corporations are, for example, Elektro Slovenija, Slovenske železnice, Pošta Slovenije, etc., banks, insurance companies, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. Monthly Report on Earnings by Legal Persons (Obrazec 1-ZAP/M) Actual number of employed persons who received wages General government sector Legal persons1 in the general government sector National accounts statistics, SKIS2 Institutional units which are under public control and cover less than 50% of production costs by market sales. Those are units that are included in public finances - central government budget, local government budgets and social security funds (HIIS and PDII); also public institutes, public agencies, public funds if they meet the 50% criterion, and also some other units (SOD, KAD, DSU, STO, etc.). Monthly Report on Earnings by Legal Persons (Obrazec 1-ZAP/M) Actual number of employed persons who received wages AJPES Public sector Legal persons in the public sector ZSPJS State bodies and local governments, public agencies, public funds, public institutes and public commercial institutions, and other legal entities governed by public law which are direct central or local government budget users listed in the register of direct and indirect budget users kept by the Public Payments Administration of the RS. Public corporations and commercial companies under public control (in which the central or local government is the majority equity holder) are not part of the public sector. Monthly Report on Earnings by Legal Persons (Obrazec 1-ZAP/M and Obrazec 1A) Number of employed persons who received wages based on hours worked IMAD Public service activities (thus far also public sector) All legal entities in the stated activities SCA 2008; calculations by IMAD Public service activities: public administration and defence, compulsory social security (O), education (P), human health and social work activities (Q). SI-STAT: Average monthly earnings by activities Actual number of employed persons who received wages Notes: 1 In monthly monitoring of earnings, the national accounts statistics and the structure of earnings statistics also take into account persons in paid employment working for natural persons. 2 The national standard for collecting, analysing and recording statistical data. In the national accounts statistics, the domestic economy is divided into institutional sectors. SKIS distinguishes between five sectors of the economy, i.e. non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH), and corresponding sub-sectors. Source: Monthly report on earnings by legal persons, Slovenia, available on: http://www.stat.si/doc/metod_pojasnila/07-010-MP.htm , ZSPJS (OG RS, No. 56/2002), Javni sektor in sektor država (Public sector and general government), available on http://www.stat.si/novica_prikazi.aspx?id=4673 , AJPES, available on http://www.ajpes.siStatistike/Place/Predlozitev/ Predpisi, Standard Classification of Institutional Sectors, available on http://www.surs.si/klasje/tabela.aspx?cvn=3347. first release of data on average monthly earnings. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror we are therefore going to comment mainly on earnings in the private sector and in the public sector (within that, in the general government sector in particular) from now on; at the same time, we will continue to calculate earnings and employment by groups of activities (industry, market services, private sector activities, public service activities). So far IMAD has used the term "public sector activities" (or shorter, "public sector") for public service activities (O-Q according to SCA 2008) and the term "private sector activities" or "private sector" for all other activities. For easier and more consistent comparisons of wage and productivity g rowth, we have adjusted the delineation of these two groups to the delineation of activities in the quarterly release of GDP by SORS. Wages and the number of employees receiving wages can be monitored according to several statistical sources. Data on wages and wage earners are released mainly by SORS and AJPES. Data on wages in the state budget are also published by the Ministry of Finance. SORS conducts various statistical surveys on wages. Applying different criteria, among other things, it regularly (monthly) monitors and releases data on average earnings with legal persons by activities and by institutional sectors and separately for the private sector and the public sector. AJPES (for statistical purposes and to ensure public availability of data on earnings in the public sector) collects and monthly processes data on earnings by legal entities and separately for the public and private sectors. The monthly statistics by SORS and AJPES use the same data source, but their calculations of the average wage per employee and their public sector definitions differ. Table 13: Comparison of nominal y-o-y growth rates of the gross wage per employee according to different definitions of the public and private sectors, in % Public sector Private sector Year Public sector SORS General government SORS Public sector AJPES Public service activities IMAD Private sector SORS Private sector AJPES Private sector activities IMAD 2006 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.51 5.8 5.0 5.42 2007 6.9 4.1 3.6 4.11 6.0 5.7 6.92 2008 9.7 10.2 9.8 9.71 7.8 8.5 7.82 2009 5.3 7.0 7.5 6.7 1.6 3.3 1.8 2010 0.8 0.0 0.1 -0.1 5.6 4.8 5.1 2011 1.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 2.8 2.6 2012 I-IV 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1.3 2.6 2.1 Source: SORS, AJPES, calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Calculations based on SCA 2002, activities L-O. Compared with the calculations according to SCA 2008, a deviation of growth only in 2008 (10.1%). 2 Calculations based on SCA 2002, activities A-K. Compared with the calculations according to SCA 2008, deviations of growth only in 2006 (5.3%) and 2007 (6.8%). The public sector is defined in the Public Sector Salary System Act (ZSPJS) and in the national accounts statistics. AJPES takes into account the definition of the former, while SORS follows the definition in the national accounts.The definition in the national accounts statistics is broader, extending the public sector to public corporations in addition to the general government sector (an approximation of the definition of the public sector in the ZSPJS). In IMAD's analyses, the public sector has thus far been defined as a cluster of certain public services activities. Activities with similar characteristics are also grouped together by Eurostat, which classifies O-S activities among public service activities. If using the term public service activities as an approximation of the public sector, it should be noted that it includes all entities (in both the public and the private sectors) that have declared one of the listed activities as their principal activity. Nevertheless, these activities mainly include public sector entities. In the period 2005-2011, for which comparable data are available, the movements of the average wage per employee were fairly consistent according to all definitions of the public sector. The highest level of the average gross wage in the public sector is shown by AJPES. It is comparable with the gross wage in the government sector. These two averages diverge upwards with regard to the public sector (SORS) and public service activities, which is understandable, as they do not include public corporations, where the average wage is lower. Wages in the public sector according to all three definitions (the government sector, public service activities, public sector according to AJPES) recorded comparable growth (or stagnation in the last period) in the whole period under observation. Only wage growth in the public sector (SORS) deviated somewhat (upwards) in the last period (after the introduction of intervention measures), which can be explained by the fact that public corporations are not subject to the ZSPJS and government austerity measures, which have otherwise brought wage growth in the government sector to a halt. The number of wage earners in the government sector and public service activities has been growing since 2005, while it is declining in the public sector as a whole. The number of wage earners in the public sector (SORS) is moving around 226 thousand; within that around 155 thousand are in the general government sector and the remaining 70 thousand in public corporations (in the analysed period, the number of jobs in public corporations declined). The number of wage earners in the general government sector is approximately the same as in public service activities or as shown by AJPES with regard to the hours worked (160 thousand). As is the case in the movement of wages, the three statistics also show fairly comparable growth dynamics for the number of wage earners; in the public sector (SORS) the trend is similar, but the deviations are more pronounced. The definition of the private sector by SORS relies (as is the case in the definition of the public sector) on the national accounts statistics, while the private sector according to AJPES contains all legal entities that are not part of the public sector. Based on the national accounts statistics, the private sector as defined by SORS includes all financial and non-financial Figure 31: Wages, different definitions of the private sector, in EUR 1,500 1,450 1,400 cc 1,350 OJ ^ 1,300 E 1,250 lu CP 1,200 is 1,150 a 1,100 1,050 1,000 - Private sector SORS -Private sector AJPES ■ Private sector activities IMAD 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: SORS, AJPES; calculations by IMAD. corporations, except public corporations and the central bank. At IMAD we have so far (as in the public sector) included certain activities (all activities except public service activities A-N and R-S). The roughest delineation of the groups of activities by Eurostat, in addition to the group of public services (O-S), also takes into account private sector activities, including industry and market services (B-N), without agriculture. The levels and trends of growth of the gross wage per employee are fairly consistent according to all definitions of the private sector. In private sector activities the wage is higher than in the private sector, as private sector activities also include public corporations, where average wages tend to be higher than in the private sector. The trend of growth is equal according to all three definitions. This year the growth of the gross wage is much slower in the private sector than in private sector activities, which is attributable to much higher wage growth in public than in private companies. Figure 32: Number of wage earners, different definitions of the private sector -Private sector SORS -Private sector AJPES -----Private sector activities IMAD 600 550 - 500 ; 450 .2 400 E 350 Figure 33: Gross wage per employee relative to Q2 2008 a a a a a a Source: SORS, AJPES; calculations by IMAD. The number of wage earners in the private sector has been falling since the end of 2008. It is hovering around 420 thousand according to SORS, 20 thousand more according to AJPES (with regard to the hours worked) and 60 thousand more according to the definition by IMAD. Even though the numbers differ, the growth dynamics are very similar according to all three definitions. During the crisis, non-financial corporations lost the largest number of jobs, while the number of wage earners in financial corporations is only slightly lower than it was before the crisis. The gross wage rises (seasonally adjusted) according to different definitions of the public and private sectors relative to the period just before the crisis or the beginning of the wage reform in the public sector are very similar. Wage IT "0 105 o 100 95 !S 90 - Private sector SORS - Private sector activities IMAD ■ Public sector SORS General government sector SORS - Public service activities IMAD E3 E3 C ^ CD o ^ C C ^^ Source: SORS; seasonal adjustment by IMAD. rises in the private sector and private sector activities are consistent, as are wage rises in the government sector and public service activities, while the growth of public sector wages deviates slightly from the latter two. Specifically, after increasing somewhat more as a result of the wage reform, wages in the government sector and public service activities have remained practically unchanged for the third year in a row, while the wage in the public sector increases much more evenly due to wage growth in public corporations. The ratio between the average gross wage in the public sector and that in the private sector has been declining for the third successive year. The decline is attributable to government austerity measures, but also to wage growth in the private Figure 34: Ratio of the average gross wage in the public and private sectors, private sector=100 -Public sector / private sector (SORS) ----Public sector / private sector (AJPES) -Public service activities / private sector activities (IMAD) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 12 Source: SORS, AJPES; calculations by IMAD. sector, primarily due to the increase in the minimum wage in 2010-2012. The ratio differs slightly with regard to different definitions of the private and public sectors, but the trend is the same. According to the national accounts definition (SORS), in 2011, the average gross wage in the public sector was 28.1% higher than the corresponding wage in the private sector. The ratio according to the ZSPJS definition (AJPES data) is somewhat lower (25.2%); a comparison of both groups of activities shows an even lower ratio (public service and private sector activities, IMAD; 20.6%). The lower ratio between the two groups of activities reflects differences in the coverage of public corporations, which according to the national accounts definition (SORS) belong in the public sector, while being regarded as private sector activities in IMAD's comparisons. Being higher than the average wage in private sector activities, the average wage in public corporations is raising the average wage in private sector activities. The ratio of wages in public service activities to wages in private sector activities is therefore lower than that of public to private sector wages. In the first quarter of this year, the ratio dropped somewhat according to all definition. In the coming months it is set to decline even more due to the adoption of additional measures in the area of public sector wages. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spring forecast 2012 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 6.9 3.6 -8.0 1.4 -0.2 -0.9 1.2 2.2 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 34,562 37,280 35,311 35,416 35,639 35,641 36,589 38,059 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 17,120 18,437 17,295 17,286 17,364 17,428 17,860 18,551 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 20,500 20,700 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 91 87 85 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,828 36,232 34,593 34,894 35,050 34,841 35,774 37,222 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,601 35,871 34,344 34,940 35,165 34,884 35,860 37,236 Rate of registered unemployment 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.9 13.5 13.3 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.3 9.1 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 1.0 -6.3 4.0 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 Inflation,2 end of the year 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2 1.9 2.0 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.7 2.9 -17.2 9.5 6.8 1.4 5.4 6.1 Exports of goods 13.9 0.5 -18.1 11.0 7.7 1.3 5.8 6.5 Exports of services 13.2 14.3 -13.7 4.1 3.6 1.7 3.7 4.3 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 16.7 3.7 -19.6 7.2 4.7 -1.6 4.9 5.5 Imports of goods 16.2 3.0 -20.8 8.0 5.7 -2.0 5.0 5.6 Imports of services 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.6 -1.4 0.7 4.3 4.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -1646 -2574 -456 -297 -168 226 423 588 As a per cent share relative to GDP -4.8 -6.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 1.2 1.5 Gross external debt, in EUR million 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,699 41,444 42,3825 As a per cent share relative to GDP 100.6 105.2 114.1 114.9 116.3 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.320 1.322 1.322 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 1.5 As a % of GDP4 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.8 57.1 56.6 56.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 -0.9 -3.5 -0.7 0.3 As a % of GDP4 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.6 19.8 19.3 19.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -10.7 -1.5 4.0 3.0 As a % of GDP4 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 19.5 19.4 20.0 20.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2012). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End April 2012. PRODUCTION 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -17.4 6.2 1.2 -0.4 10.7 7.2 7.4 7.7 2.7 -0.9 -3.9 0.7 8.1 8.5 14.1 9.6 6.3 B Mining and quarrying -2.9 11.0 -8.0 -7.2 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.6 -9.2 -9.0 -7.7 -9.0 0.2 9.4 19.0 7.4 15.9 C Manufacturing -18.7 6.6 1.0 -0.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 8.1 2.8 -1.4 -4.7 0.2 9.0 9.7 15.2 11.0 7.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -6.6 1.8 5.0 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.0 7.8 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -21.0 -17.0 -25.6 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -20.1 -17.7 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 Buildings -22.6 -14.0 -39.7 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 Civil engineering -19.9 -18.9 -15.3 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -10.0 -21.3 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport -9.2 7.9 3.2 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 3.6 11.7 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -24.2 28.2 9.7 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 8.5 -1.6 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -13.0 3.6 3.1 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.8 7.5 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 Real turnover in retail trade -10.6 -0.1 1.4 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 3.4 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.0 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -21.7 12.1 6.6 6.3 15.4 11.8 15.0 15.8 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.7 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -21.4 1.4 5.8 -7.9 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.8 4.5 3.4 3.2 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.1 7.9 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -3.4 -1.5 5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 2.8 -4.2 0.5 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -8.0 0.7 9.1 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) -7.8 2.8 3.7 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.8 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 449.3 454.5 478.9 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -23 -9 -7 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -10 -12 -12 -9 -6 -5 -7 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -23 -1 0 -7 0 3 0 3 4 -1 -7 -6 -2 -1 2 6 1 - in construction -50 -57 -46 -57 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -43 -40 -62 -58 -59 -60 -56 - in services -13 -3 1 -1 -5 -2 -2 1 4 3 -4 -8 -9 -4 -3 -1 -2 - in retail trade -12 7 8 -2 8 11 10 6 13 0 12 7 3 3 17 11 13 Consumer confidence indicator -30 -25 -25 -25 -22 -27 -26 -26 -25 -25 -24 -26 -23 -23 -21 -27 -27 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 2012 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 13.8 6.5 6.3 3.1 4.2 2.9 -1.2 -1.8 2.6 -2.1 0.4 -8.1 0.9 4.0 -2.2 3.6 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 -6.4 -1.2 -8.4 -4.7 -22.1 0.2 -8.5 -17.3 -1.7 -6.0 -2.5 -16.3 7.4 -10.2 -20.7 -1.5 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 14.6 6.6 6.8 3.0 4.9 2.8 -1.7 -2.8 2.9 -2.7 -0.8 -8.3 0.8 2.9 -2.8 3.5 - - 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 11.0 6.3 3.6 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.4 11.8 -0.4 4.7 13.1 -4.0 1.9 16.1 5.7 5.4 - - -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.5 -25.4 -9.6 -24.6 -24.4 -26.6 -5.2 -14.1 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 -31.1 -31.0 27.7 -3.2 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 -18.1 -22.8 -22.2 -20.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.4 0.0 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -3.8 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.3 -1.1 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.4 -0.1 -3.4 -4.6 -4.5 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 6.2 1.1 -0.3 8.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 -0.9 8.7 3.8 -1.3 -0.1 - - -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 - - 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 - - 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.2 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.1 4.7 7.6 -1.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 -3.5 1.2 -0.8 - - 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -16 -16 -14 1 3 -1 -1 3 4 3 5 4 2 1 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -3 -6 -8 -10 -9 -10 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -51 -49 -44 -45 -46 -42 -43 -43 -46 -41 -42 -39 -40 -44 -44 -43 -2 -4 -2 -1 1 -2 4 5 3 3 3 5 2 0 -3 -9 -10 -9 -4 -7 -7 -6 10 12 8 11 7 12 0 10 16 12 -1 -11 13 12 13 10 7 8 7 9 9 3 -27 -26 -24 -27 -26 -28 -25 -26 -25 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 -26 -26 -26 -38 -39 -33 LABOUR MARKET 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 944.5 935.5 934.7 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 858.2 835.0 824.0 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 838.9 839.3 835.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.9 33.4 38.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 34.6 34.7 34.1 In industry, construction 306.9 287.3 272.9 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 289.2 288.6 287.9 Of which: in manufacturing 199.8 188.6 184.8 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 189.4 189.0 188.5 in construction 86.8 78.5 67.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 79.5 79.3 79.1 In services 513.4 514.3 512.3 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 515.1 516.1 514.0 Of which: in public administration 51.5 52.0 51.4 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 52.3 52.4 52.2 in education, health-services, social work 113.8 116.7 118.8 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 767.4 747.2 729.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 In enterprises and organisations 699.4 685.7 671.8 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 688.6 689.1 686.3 By those self-employed 67.9 61.5 57.2 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 62.2 62.1 61.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.8 87.8 94.9 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 88.0 88.1 87.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 86.4 100.5 110.7 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 98.4 98.2 98.4 Female 42.4 47.9 52.1 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 46.7 46.8 47.5 By age: under 26 13.3 13.9 12.9 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 13.4 13.0 12.6 aged over 50 26.2 31.4 39.0 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 30.3 30.5 30.9 Unskilled 34.1 37.5 39.5 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 37.1 36.7 36.4 For more than 1 year 31.5 42.8 50.2 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 41.8 42.9 43.2 Those receiving benefits 27.4 30.0 36.3 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 29.2 28.9 29.0 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.1 10.7 11.8 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 10.5 10.5 10.5 Male 8.3 10.1 11.4 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 Female 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 30.4 13.3 2.7 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 17.0 16.8 14.4 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 Redundancies 90.5 83.5 82.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 5.5 5.4 6.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 48.6 57.0 61.0 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 4.7 4.2 4.8 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.5 29.9 32.8 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 2.4 2.1 1.8 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 161.3 174.6 194.5 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 44.9 13.7 16.1 15.2 For a fixed term, in % 78.1 80.7 81.7 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 82.9 81.8 79.8 81.1 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 54.9 41.6 35.6 44.1 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 42.1 41.4 40.7 As % of labour force 5.8 4.4 3.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 NEW JOBS 111.4 104.1 118.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 30.8 7.8 8.4 8.2 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; ^According to ESS. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 15.6 13.1 16.2 14.0 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 80.3 82.7 85.7 83.3 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 11.8 8.4 10.6 10.0 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 6 7 8 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.4 3.9 2.0 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 4.4 4.0 5.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.2 5.8 3.1 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.6 7.1 8.6 B Mining and quarrying 0.9 4.0 3.8 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.5 -0.8 0.8 1.8 C Manufacturing 0.8 9.0 3.9 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 9.4 8.1 11.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 3.7 2.3 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.0 1.6 6.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.0 2.2 -0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.9 F Constrution 1.0 4.4 2.0 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.2 4.5 2.1 6.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.9 3.7 2.8 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 4.1 4.0 4.5 H Transportation and storage 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.5 1.8 3.4 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.6 4.0 2.1 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 4.6 4.0 4.1 J Information and communication 1.4 2.6 0.9 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 2.1 2.9 4.3 K Financial and insurance activities -0.7 1.0 0.6 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 7.6 5.0 1.2 L Real estate activities 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 8.4 4.1 3.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.1 1.6 -0.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 N Administrative and support service activities 1.8 4.1 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 3.9 3.8 5.3 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.9 -0.6 0.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 P Education 3.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 1.0 0.7 1.2 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.7 0.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.9 0.5 -0.7 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 S Other service activities 1.3 4.2 0.9 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.6 4.7 6.0 5.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal 1.1 -2.1 -0.1 -1.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -3.1 -2.4 -2.4 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -0.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.7 -1.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -2.6 -1.8 -1.7 Real (deflator ULC) 6.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.9 -2.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 USD/EUR 1.3933 1.3268 1.3917 1.3842 1.2727 1.2910 1.3593 1.3669 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.2209 1.2770 1.2894 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Change in the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012; the new source ECB, before that own calculations (IMAD). ^Harmonised effective exchange rate - 20 group of trading partners and 17 Euro area countries; a rise in the value indicates appreciation of national currency and vice versa. 2010 2011 2012 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -2.5 -2.3 -3.0 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 1.3067 1.3898 1.3661 1.3220 1.3360 1.3649 1.3999 1.4442 1.4349 1.4388 1.4264 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 7 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 1.0 4.4 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.7 7.2 5.7 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 Clothing and footwear -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.3 10.2 5.6 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 Furnishings, household equipment 4.0 1.4 2.7 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 Medical, pharmaceutical products 4.0 2.1 1.6 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 Transport -3.0 -0.3 1.0 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 Communications -4.1 1.4 1.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 Recreation and culture 3.0 0.4 -1.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 Education 3.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Catering services 4.4 -2.5 -6.8 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.8 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 HCPI 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.9 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -1.3 2.1 4.5 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 Domestic market -0.4 2.0 3.8 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 Non-domestic market -2.2 2.2 5.3 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 euro area -3.5 2.2 6.1 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 non-euro area 0.3 2.1 3.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 Import price indices -3.3 7.4 5.4 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices -12.3 16.5 10.9 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 16.6 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 Oil products -12.0 17.3 11.9 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 16.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 Transport & communications 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 Other controlled prices 4.9 1.3 0.0 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 6.1 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Direct control - total -6.9 14.2 2.8 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 11.0 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.2 15.4 24.0 35.8 46.8 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 15.3 23.9 36.3 47.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 6.0 9.3 12.6 16.1 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 12.4 18.9 27.5 35.5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q^ Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -246 -209 2 20 -107 -61 -62 55 73 -91 -36 -77 -14 -92 -1 -11 Goods1 -498 -997 -1,043 -141 -225 -185 -447 -227 -219 -214 -383 -237 -79 -132 -14 -26 Exports 16,410 18,762 21,265 4,290 4,778 4,732 4,962 5,179 5,486 5,245 5,354 5,247 1,499 1,593 1,686 1,636 Imports 16,908 19,759 22,308 4,431 5,003 4,917 5,409 5,406 5,705 5,458 5,738 5,484 1,578 1,725 1,700 1,662 Services 1,165 1,285 1,443 289 341 341 314 316 399 358 370 379 118 112 112 87 Exports 4,347 4,616 4,839 979 1,120 1,343 1,174 1,052 1,186 1,381 1,219 1,103 372 363 386 461 Imports 3,182 3,331 3,396 690 779 1,002 860 736 787 1,023 849 723 254 251 274 374 Income -754 -599 -550 -75 -182 -226 -116 -85 -143 -238 -84 -202 -36 -47 -99 -98 Receipts 666 574 918 107 167 140 160 204 237 220 257 151 48 63 55 56 Expenditure 1,420 1,173 1,469 183 349 366 276 289 380 459 341 353 84 110 154 154 Current transfers -159 102 153 -52 -41 8 188 52 36 3 61 -17 -18 -25 1 26 Receipts 959 1,203 1,373 263 219 273 448 378 320 311 364 334 56 83 80 117 Expenditure 1,119 1,100 1,220 315 260 265 260 326 284 308 302 351 74 107 79 91 Capital and financial account 175 535 -452 15 291 230 -2 48 -244 -84 -172 170 100 20 171 156 Capital account 14 53 -102 55 11 24 -37 -7 -6 -8 -82 6 5 0 7 -5 Financial account 161 482 -350 -40 280 206 35 55 -239 -77 -89 163 95 21 164 161 Direct investment -657 431 638 -109 100 82 358 -9 240 246 160 212 -18 28 89 98 Domestic abroad -187 160 -81 -26 86 46 54 -15 31 55 -152 2 -2 38 50 17 Foreign in Slovenia -470 271 719 -83 14 36 304 6 209 191 313 210 -16 -10 40 81 Portfolio investment 4,628 1,956 1,838 1,105 509 -51 392 2,592 -300 -440 -15 -936 609 -201 101 78 Financial derivatives -2 -117 -136 -22 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -24 -18 1 -11 -21 -33 -5 Other investment -3,976 -1,806 -2,762 -1,075 -214 171 -689 -2,457 -177 108 -236 848 -517 273 30 -7 Assets -267 783 -1,461 243 -591 536 594 -1,525 -159 -349 572 -1,452 -23 -629 60 699 Commercial credits 416 -174 -47 -223 -213 30 232 -322 -88 44 319 -350 -37 -88 -87 -6 Loans -1 203 -52 -348 510 21 20 -99 -22 48 22 5 415 25 70 127 Currency and deposits -603 672 -1,315 817 -883 391 346 -1,109 -48 -408 250 -1,116 -408 -552 77 569 Other assets -80 81 -46 -2 -6 94 -4 5 0 -33 -18 10 7 -13 0 9 Liabilities -3,708 -2,589 -1,301 -1,319 378 -365 -1,283 -932 -18 457 -808 2,300 -494 902 -30 -706 Commercial credits -452 362 94 91 262 -63 72 199 -18 -85 -3 169 54 126 82 -31 Loans -2,911 -986 -1,235 -403 -189 -8 -385 -388 -298 203 -753 -147 -279 328 -238 -40 Deposits -318 -1,954 -169 -1,079 358 -305 -928 -787 334 340 -57 2,288 -206 455 109 -607 Other liabilities -27 -11 9 72 -54 12 -42 42 -36 0 3 -10 -63 -8 17 -28 International reserves2 167 19 72 62 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 19 39 32 -60 -23 -3 Statistical error 71 -326 450 -35 -184 -170 64 -104 171 175 207 -93 -86 72 -170 -145 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,788 1,834 1,999 406 461 450 516 446 517 506 530 462 144 158 159 164 Intermediate goods 8,117 10,044 11,906 2,249 2,559 2,574 2,662 2,904 3,097 3,001 2,904 2,990 809 861 889 888 Consumer goods 6,189 6,550 6,909 1,555 1,674 1,627 1,694 1,737 1,757 1,622 1,792 1,656 519 546 609 555 Import of investment goods 2,295 2,323 2,504 456 616 579 671 563 616 589 736 551 215 220 182 181 Intermediate goods 9,839 12,210 14,010 2,729 3,083 3,059 3,339 3,500 3,588 3,452 3,471 3,574 962 1,074 1,048 1,048 Consumer goods 5,021 5,522 5,938 1,303 1,367 1,360 1,493 1,390 1,526 1,501 1,522 1,409 434 467 467 454 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 -55 6 -40 -40 18 37 -54 73 49 -94 117 26 -127 10 70 2 -107 -64 -140 127 79 -111 -48 -134 -128 -186 -47 -91 -89 -73 -162 16 20 -137 -97 -51 -108 -224 -110 -66 -62 7 1,329 1,767 1,695 1,742 1,525 1,582 1,655 1,942 1,747 1,882 1,857 1,782 1,534 1,929 1,830 1,901 1,622 1,617 1,690 1,940 1,761 1,440 1,815 1,829 1,869 1,711 1,628 1,746 2,031 1,820 2,043 1,842 1,762 1,671 2,025 1,882 2,010 1,846 1,726 1,756 2,001 1,754 113 141 131 87 96 110 83 122 145 122 132 81 122 155 151 125 94 137 92 151 149 447 436 392 356 425 341 317 394 400 381 406 459 459 463 416 382 421 370 320 413 399 333 295 262 269 329 231 234 271 255 258 274 378 337 308 265 257 327 233 227 263 251 -64 -63 -36 -44 -37 -26 -31 -28 -49 -55 -39 -94 -89 -56 -31 -39 -14 -70 -68 -64 -56 43 41 44 43 72 57 58 89 68 82 87 74 65 82 80 77 99 50 48 53 58 107 105 80 87 109 83 89 117 117 137 126 167 154 138 111 116 114 121 116 117 114 6 -24 -2 45 144 -1 -15 68 27 0 9 19 -23 7 0 24 37 -20 -98 102 -20 89 68 90 125 233 85 131 162 115 105 99 117 71 123 94 115 155 68 63 203 88 82 91 92 80 89 86 146 95 88 105 91 98 95 115 93 91 118 88 161 101 109 -27 101 86 -223 135 -167 54 162 18 60 -322 55 -48 -92 -297 -60 185 91 210 -131 -121 -1 30 18 6 -61 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 -6 9 3 26 -26 71 68 -229 197 -158 52 161 20 60 -318 62 -44 -95 -295 -68 274 97 201 -135 -147 44 -60 83 230 46 -117 -29 136 89 111 39 65 69 113 -82 -50 292 -26 111 127 -75 34 -5 1 53 0 -57 22 20 -9 14 26 -44 41 57 -77 4 -79 -31 7 27 -16 10 -55 81 177 46 -60 -51 116 98 98 13 109 27 55 -6 -53 372 5 104 100 -60 -29 -101 71 183 139 1,136 -206 1,662 -361 288 -226 72 -64 -448 225 -179 -61 211 -820 -328 110 -4 -5 -8 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 -4 7 -2 -2 -33 211 -96 -622 29 -1,159 301 -1,599 283 -335 -125 -59 -59 227 -421 125 61 -17 845 20 -179 -201 38 -166 -632 1,392 -1,040 352 -836 78 -87 -150 -498 -17 166 -361 301 632 -604 108 -955 -376 195 -158 -101 -77 410 -218 29 -133 -83 31 -36 -39 202 -118 -135 42 412 -87 -87 -177 22 18 -124 -33 -3 56 -50 5 -54 12 -17 -18 -20 27 41 -48 23 46 22 129 -146 -138 -487 309 -19 -547 912 -763 325 -671 138 -97 -89 -424 -228 244 -187 234 203 -536 48 -628 -265 73 12 -13 -5 14 -9 -7 21 10 -3 -7 -14 -18 -1 9 3 -29 -3 17 -4 4 168 173 70 10 -1,363 -118 -51 -763 205 -248 25 439 -42 61 -60 -177 -572 588 737 975 196 -182 149 134 62 -124 -42 60 181 143 4 -165 -10 -263 188 -24 137 -116 -81 152 99 -11 -21 53 -240 242 -388 -109 -88 -190 -214 -226 142 240 -41 5 -201 -429 -122 65 -211 0 84 348 -46 180 -288 -820 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 550 833 905 114 23 17 -5 -7 -30 31 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -33 7 12 -15 54 -36 -28 10 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 0 82 -107 -45 262 -153 131 0 -235 -67 34 205 -82 175 82 227 58 -78 -27 -70 5 42 125 161 167 171 178 127 142 177 156 183 178 178 154 173 171 177 181 142 153 168 N/A 719 966 930 941 792 904 929 1,070 996 1,060 1,042 1,005 903 1,093 1,026 1,052 826 938 974 1,078 N/A 459 613 570 601 523 522 553 663 560 599 599 559 439 624 594 629 570 492 521 643 N/A 150 248 191 229 252 151 174 238 185 227 205 204 166 219 203 226 307 174 155 222 N/A 895 1,115 1,162 1,138 1,039 1,051 1,130 1,319 1,153 1,265 1,170 1,119 1,059 1,275 1,203 1,254 1,014 1,145 1,166 1,262 N/A 422 483 502 542 449 424 455 511 477 557 491 475 474 552 504 536 482 437 452 519 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2009 2010 2011 2010 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 160 138 102 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 Central government (S. 1311) 3,497 3,419 4,299 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 376 526 584 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,413 9,282 9,454 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,704 21,646 20,867 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,024 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,680 2,497 2,226 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,302 5,811 5,445 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,731 35,994 35,692 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 In foreign currency 1,895 1,843 1,536 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 Securities, total 5,345 5,345 5,647 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,965 26,767 28,420 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27,929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 Overnight 7,200 8,155 8,245 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7,976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,408 8,193 7,868 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 8,674 8,377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 With agreed maturity -long-term 9,788 10,337 12,248 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 11,196 11,401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 569 82 59 577 532 504 525 483 175 156 167 160 83 108 Deposits in foreign currency, total 434 463 579 426 438 436 450 496 705 462 491 462 456 471 Overnight 238 285 386 240 241 250 270 299 513 280 307 277 286 291 With agreed maturity -short-term 141 121 133 133 137 127 121 130 129 122 121 125 113 118 With agreed maturity -long-term 45 55 59 48 52 55 55 59 61 58 60 57 55 59 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 10 2 1 5 8 4 4 8 2 2 3 3 2 3 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.28 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.51 1.81 2.15 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.43 5.53 5.46 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.28 5.76 5.72 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.23 0.81 1.39 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 6-month rates 1.44 1.08 1.64 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.37 0.19 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 6-month rates 0.50 0.27 0.18 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4752 4796 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9380 9380 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,867 20,966 20,886 20,920 20922 20843 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,226 2,207 2,231 2,324 2320 2300 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,631 5527 5613 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35407 35334 36103 35955 35979 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,647 5,823 5,684 6,081 6,066 6,076 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.22 - 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.40 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 PUBLIC FINANCE 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 qM Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 9 1 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,408.0 14,794.0 14,982.3 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.1 1,180.1 1,188.3 Current revenues 13,639.5 13,771.5 14,037.9 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.8 1,119.7 1,132.5 Tax revenues 12,955.4 12,848.4 13,209.2 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 1,055.6 1,073.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 2,490.7 2,723.5 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 213.4 218.8 Social security contributions 5,161.3 5,234.5 5,267.6 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 432.0 434.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.5 28.1 29.2 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 2.0 2.6 Taxes on property 207.0 219.7 215.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 24.6 13.7 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,660.2 4,780.7 4,856.2 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 376.1 393.8 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.5 90.7 100.2 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 7.3 9.2 Other taxes 2.9 4.0 17.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.3 0.1 Non-tax revenues 684.1 923.0 828.7 174.1 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 64.1 59.5 Capital revenues 106.5 175.7 65.3 9.8 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 3.3 7.3 Grants 11.1 12.6 10.4 2.9 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.1 0.5 1.2 Transferred revenues 54.3 109.5 53.8 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.5 Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 724.7 814.9 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 55.8 46.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,368.2 16,692.7 16,546.3 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,323.5 1,372.8 1,373.5 Current expenditures 6,800.8 6,960.4 6,926.7 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,994.6 578.4 557.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,911.9 3,912.4 3,882.7 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 967.0 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 971.2 319.0 329.2 Expenditures on goods and services 2,510.3 2,512.4 2,443.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.3 615.7 603.4 638.9 576.3 183.9 203.2 Interest payments 336.1 488.2 526.7 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 71.5 21.9 Reserves 42.5 47.4 73.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 4.0 2.9 Current transfers 7,339.4 7,628.5 7,818.9 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.5 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,956.5 612.0 624.5 Subsidies 597.9 581.9 496.3 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 69.1 128.2 176.7 36.8 46.4 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,024.5 6,277.7 6,533.5 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,608.8 504.4 516.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 678.1 728.8 737.2 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 64.9 58.2 Current transfers abroad 38.9 40.1 52.0 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 5.8 3.1 Capital expenditures 1,294.1 1,310.6 1,023.5 192.8 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 266.5 391.6 164.9 113.2 116.1 Capital transfers 494.6 396.4 372.1 47.5 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 97.0 159.4 45.7 34.3 40.7 Payments to the EU budget 439.3 396.8 405.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 34.9 35.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,960.2 -1,898.7 -1,564.1 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2010 2011 2012 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10* 1 11* 1 12* 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1,461.5 1,707.1 1,205.5 1,118.2 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 1,290.5 1,361.2 1,364.8 1,181.5 1,094.2 1,342.2 1,283.2 1,263.8 1,388.4 1,147.1 1,045.0 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.8 1,235.8 1,265.0 1,214.8 1,151.8 1,056.3 1,202.3 1,230.7 1,189.1 1,227.7 1,094.8 950.0 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,170.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 1,174.5 219.0 268.6 215.1 208.1 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 223.8 227.5 246.2 214.7 219.2 195.6 248.3 436.4 491.6 437.7 424.6 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 416.5 444.0 485.8 443.5 438.0 461.0 441.3 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 31.2 15.1 7.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 33.9 14.5 8.2 9.7 8.7 10.5 492.0 440.2 424.5 299.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 456.6 495.4 373.0 443.6 282.4 438.0 460.7 7.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 8.6 9.2 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 58.9 -26.3 -15.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 2.7 74.7 160.8 52.3 95.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.5 69.4 59.6 65.5 79.5 98.0 45.1 104.2 88.3 56.2 31.1 83.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 6.1 12.0 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 100.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 63.7 231.8 54.1 70.0 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 87.6 136.6 27.2 33.5 134.9 49.4 1,419.6 1,793.9 1,418.9 1,408.8 1,363.8 1,359.4 1,476.9 1,322.8 1,308.6 1,321.4 1,325.8 1,328.8 1,368.3 1,542.9 1,490.6 1,437.6 1,393.5 1,367.1 543.8 670.0 638.7 637.0 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.4 530.7 565.2 679.4 646.8 667.8 628.0 322.8 328.0 326.1 316.0 324.9 312.2 377.7 320.3 321.5 320.6 312.8 322.2 320.0 308.2 335.7 320.6 314.9 333.8 216.9 323.0 202.1 184.0 199.2 213.0 203.2 199.5 207.4 215.5 180.5 196.4 204.5 238.0 202.0 186.1 187.6 212.0 1.5 5.8 88.6 134.5 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 1.9 5.6 136.4 134.8 160.6 77.3 2.7 13.2 22.0 2.5 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 4.3 13.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.0 633.0 716.1 673.8 628.3 640.3 635.9 781.7 658.8 620.8 619.8 615.0 607.7 642.7 694.0 707.3 628.4 619.5 638.7 50.2 98.1 97.5 46.4 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 39.3 71.9 117.0 40.2 19.5 47.2 519.5 526.6 521.6 532.8 552.2 534.7 673.0 537.8 530.5 529.9 522.6 526.4 540.0 531.9 535.4 533.2 540.2 530.6 59.0 89.1 51.2 48.7 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.6 63.0 62.3 77.8 48.8 50.7 57.2 56.1 4.2 2.3 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 12.4 6.1 4.3 2.6 4.7 161.6 306.6 58.8 50.7 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 111.5 185.6 56.6 54.5 53.8 50.6 68.1 68.2 12.5 11.5 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.5 49.3 48.1 61.9 12.3 15.7 17.7 14.9 13.1 33.0 35.1 81.3 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 35.3 36.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 34.9 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AUKN - The Capital Assets Management Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, BS - Bank of Slovenia, DSU - Družba za svetovanje in upravljanje d.o.o. (Management and Consultancy Company), ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ESA - European System of Accounts, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HWWI - Hamburgisches Welt Wirtschafts Institut, ifo -Information und Forschung Institut, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, LFS- Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SKIS - Standard Classification of Institutional Sectors, SOD - Slovenska odškodninska družba, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, STB - Slovenian Tourist Board, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZSPJS - Salary System in the Public Sector Act, ZUPJS - Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror June 2012, No. 6. Vol. XVIII