ACTA GEOGRAPHICA
SLOVENICA GEOGRAFSKIZBORNIK
2023
63
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ISSN 1581-6613
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GEOGRAFSKI ZBORNIK
63-1 • 2023
Contents
Gordana Jovanović
The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 7
Maja Godina GoliJa
Radically local supply chains through territorial brands: Insights from the 100% Local project 23
daniela nicolaie, elena Matei, timothy John cooley, iuliana viJulie,
david cushinG, Marius nicolae truțescu
National geniuses’ heritage as potential for the development of cultural tourism in Romania 35
sara Zupan, elena BuŽan, tatjana Čelik, Gregor kovaČiČ, Jure JuGovic,
Martina luŽnik
Fire and flood occurrence in the habitats of the endangered butterfly Coenonympha
oedippus in Slovenia 55
eristian WiBisono
Encouraging research and development collaboration amidst geographical challenges
in less developed regions of the European Union: A systematic literature review 73
tim GreGorČiČ, andrej roZMan, Blaž repe
Predicting the potential ecological niche distribution of Slovenian forests under climate
change using MaxEnt modelling 89
petra GostinČar, uroš stepišnik
Extent and spatial distribution of karst in Slovenia 111
naslovnica 63-1_naslovnica 49-1.qxd  17.10.2023  6:25  Page 1
ACTA GEOGRAPHICA
SLOVENICA GEOGRAFSKIZBORNIK
2023
63
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0101661851779
ISSN 1581-6613
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23ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SLOVENICA
GEOGRAFSKI ZBORNIK
63-1 • 2023
Contents
Gordana Jovanović
The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 7
Maja Godina GoliJa
Radically local supply chains through territorial brands: Insights from the 100% Local project 23
daniela nicolaie, elena Matei, timothy John cooley, iuliana viJulie,
david cushinG, Marius nicolae truțescu
National geniuses’ heritage as potential for the development of cultural tourism in Romania 35
sara Zupan, elena BuŽan, tatjana Čelik, Gregor kovaČiČ, Jure JuGovic,
Martina luŽnik
Fire and flood occurrence in the habitats of the endangered butterfly Coenonympha
oedippus in Slovenia 55
eristian WiBisono
Encouraging research and development collaboration amidst geographical challenges
in less developed regions of the European Union: A systematic literature review 73
tim GreGorČiČ, andrej roZMan, Blaž repe
Predicting the potential ecological niche distribution of Slovenian forests under climate
change using MaxEnt modelling 89
petra GostinČar, uroš stepišnik
Extent and spatial distribution of karst in Slovenia 111
naslovnica 63-1_naslovnica 49-1.qxd  17.10.2023  6:25  Page 1
ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SLOVENICA
63-1
2023
ISSN: 1581-6613
UDC: 91
2023, ZRC SAZU, Geografski inštitut Antona Melika
International editorial board/mednarodni uredniški odbor: Zoltán Bátori (Hungary), David Bole (Slovenia), Marco Bontje (the Netherlands),
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• human geography/humana geografija: Jani Kozina, Mateja Šmid Hribar, Mimi Urbanc
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Front cover photography: After a major storm, the carbonate Nullarbor Plain was flooded due to its impermeable layer of clay
(photograph: Matej Lipar).
Fotografija na naslovnici: Po močnejši nevihti je bila sicer karbonatna ravnina Nullarbor poplavljena zaradi nepropustne plasti gline
(fotografija: Matej Lipar).
63-1-uvod_uvod49-1.qxd  17.10.2023  6:22  Page 4
Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023, 7–22
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
INFLUENCE ON THE DEBELI
NAMET GLACIER
Gordana Jovanović
Durmitor National Park, Montenegro, mountain peak Međed above the Crno jezero.
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.10834
UDC: 551.583:551.324(497.16)
Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
Gordana Jovanović1
The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
ABSTRACT: This article presents the relationship between climate variables in the Durmitor Massif
(Montenegro) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A new climate standard for temperatures and
precipitation over the last 30 years has been presented. The Debeli Namet Glacier is an indicator of cli-
mate change. We have shown that the size of this glacier is affected by the NAO which mainly affects the
precipitation in the accumulation period from December to March. During the ablation period from June
to September, the influence of the NAO on precipitation and temperatures is less pronounced. El Niño
and La Niña events are significant, especially in years with a low NAO index. The relationship between
El Niño/La Niña and the NAO is still a subject of scientific debate. 
KEY WORDS: The North Atlantic Oscillation, precipitation, temperatures, Debeli Namet Glacier, glacier
size
Vpliv severnoatlantske oscilacije na ledenik Debeli Namet
POVZETEK: Članek predstavlja povezavo med podnebnimi spremenljivkami v masivu Durmitor (Črna
gora) in severnoatlantsko oscilacijo (NAO). Predstavljen je nov podnebni standard za temperature in padavine
v zadnjih 30 letih. Ledenik Debeli Namet je pokazatelj podnebnih sprememb. Pokazali smo, da na velikost
tega ledenika vpliva NAO, ki vpliva predvsem na količino padavin v akumulacijskem obdobju od decem-
bra do marca. V obdobju ablacije od junija do septembra je vpliv NAO na padavine in temperature manj
izrazit. Dogodki El Niño in La Niña so pomembni zlasti v letih z nizkim indeksom NAO. Razmerje med
El Niño/La Niña in NAO je še vedno predmet znanstvenih razprav.
KLJUČNE BESEDE: Severnoatlantska oscilacija, padavine, temperature, ledenik Debeli Namet, velikost
ledenika
The article was submitted for publication on 20th May, 2022.
Uredništvo je prejelo prispevek 20. maja 2022.
8
1 University of Montenegro, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Podgorica, Montenegro
gordanaj@ucg.ac.me (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8349-4189)
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1 Introduction
The last Ice Age, which ended 11,000–12,000 years ago, left its mark on the Balkan Peninsula. Thanks to
the pioneering research of Jovan Cvijić traces of glaciation and interglaciation periods were discovered in
the Balkans (Cvijić 1920). His discovery of an ancient glacial relief on Rila in Bulgaria, in 1896, then on
Durmitor (Montenegro), Lovćen (Montenegro), Prokletije (Montenegro, Albania) and other high moun-
tains, made him one of the greatest geographers in Europe at that time. Albrecht Penck, better known for
his classic glacier work in the Alps, was another glacier pioneer who worked in the Balkans (Penck 1900).
A significant contribution to glacier research was made by Louis (1926) who also worked extensively in
the area. Glacier research was particularly active in the period between 1920 and 1940 (Milojević 1937;
see reviews in Messerli 1967; Hughes and Woodward 2009) and after World War II, with notable research
in Montenegro (Liedtke 1962; Nicod 1968; Marović and Marković 1972) and Greece (Hagedorn 1969).
Looking back at the history of glacial research in the Balkan Peninsula, three distinct phases can be iden-
tified in the development of this research area (Hughes and Woodward 2016): the pioneering phase
characterized by the first descriptive observations of glacial landforms, the mapping phase when the dis-
tribution of glacial landforms and sediments was first depicted on sophisticated geomorphological maps
and the contemporary advanced phase characterized by the use of modern technologies (Hughes et al. 2010;
Onaca et al. 2020; 2022; Gachev 2022).
Mountains with approximately the same elevation had more glaciers when they were closer to the Adriatic
Sea due to higher atmospheric precipitation. The lowest Pleistocene glaciers in the Balkans, and in all of
southern Europe, formed in the coastal Dinaric Alps bordering the Adriatic Sea (Penck 1900; Cvijić 1917).
In these areas, moraines are present at elevations below 1000 m, and in northern Dalmatia (Croatia), glacial
deposits have even been reported at sea level (see Hughes et al. 2010 and references therein). The largest
glaciers on the peninsula were found in the highest Dinaric mountains – Prokletije, Komovi and Durmitor,
whose peaks are above 2500 m. Traces of glaciation in Greece are described by Hughes (Hughes et al. 2010;
Hughes 2018). 
Today, there are 16 glaciers on the Balkan Peninsula: 13 on Prokletije, 2 on the Pirin Mountains in Bulgaria
and 1 on Durmitor (Gachev 2017). Many of them are below the current snow line thanks to favorable topol-
ogy and local climate. They cover an area of 0.5–5 hectares, and their thickness is estimated at 10–20 m
(Onaca et al. 2022; Gachev 2017). The alternation of very warm summers and winters with low snowfall
over several years can cause glaciers to retreat or melt throughout the Balkans (Nadbath 1999; Hughes 2008;
Grunewald and Scheithauer 2010). The Debeli Namet Glacier (Figure 1) is the only contemporary glaci-
er in the Durmitor massif. Scientists who have studied the Debeli Namet Glacier have been interested in
its reconstruction since the Pleistocene (Djurović 2009), its dynamics from the second half of the 20th cen-
tury to the present (Djurović 2012; Gachev 2017; 2020), and its response and adaptation to climate change
(Hughes 2008; Grunewald and Scheithauer 2010). In this article we are interested in the causes of the cli-
mate variability and consequential glacier response. One of them is the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO). As the dominant low-frequency atmospheric oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere it has exten-
sive and pronounced climate impacts around the globe (Hurrell 1995; Woodward 2009; Cattiaux et al. 2010;
Hurrell and Deser 2009; Cohen et al. 2012; Li et al. 2013; Li and Ruan 2018). It explains much of the observed
temperature and precipitation variability over Eurasia and North America (Hurrell 1996; Wang, Liu and
Lee 2010). The influence of the NAO on climate has been assessed by the NAO index defined as the dif-
ference in atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Azores and Iceland. A positive NAO index (or
positive NAO phase) is associated with warmer conditions and an increase in precipitation in northern
Europe and cooler conditions and a decrease in precipitation over the Mediterranean (Eshel and Farrell
2000; Criado-Aldeanueva and Soto-Navarro 2020). During the negative NAO index (or negative NAO phase)
warm moist air enters the Mediterranean region and cold air enters northern Europe.
Another important climate pattern is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is measured
by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The ONI is the rolling three-month average temperature anomaly in
the surface waters of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Index values of +0.5 or higher indi-
cate El Niño while index values of –0.5 or lower indicate La Niña. 
While climate responses to ENSO in the North Pacific and North America are well understood, the
physical linkages between ENSO and climate variability over the North Atlantic-European region are still
unclear and subject to scientific debate (Seager et al. 2010; Zhang, Mei and Geng 2018; Mezzina et al. 2019).
Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
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The combined effects of ENSO and NAO are confirmed to be more profound than the effects they pro-
duce individually (Marengo 2004). The results of recent studies show that the ENSO-NAO relationship is
dominated in 1980–1982 and 1991–1993. From 2015 to 2017, the NAO showed a high correlation with the
fluctuation of the ENSO (Mu et al. 2022).
In this article, the influence of the NAO and ENSO phenomena on climate variables in the Durmitor
region, and thus on evolution of the Debeli Namet Glacier, has been examined. Two characteristic periods
are focused on: the accumulation period from December to March, when the glacier volume increases, and
the ablation period from June to September, when the glacier volume decreases (Gachev 2020). 
New climate parameters for temperatures and precipitation for the last 30 years in the Durmitor region
were introduced. These form the basis for the analysis in this article. 
2 Glaciation in the Durmitor mountains
The massif of Durmitor, Montenegro, located at 43°26’ N and 19°10’ E was intensely glaciated. Carbonate
rocks of different structure and age are involved in its structure (Mirković 1983). The Durmitor forms a clas-
sic glacial landscape (Cvijić 1889; 1903; 1914; Milojević 1937; 1951; Messerli 1967; Nicod 1968; Marović
and Marković 1972; Djurović 2009). Deep valley troughs, separated by sharp aretes, radiate outwards in
all directions from the highest central Durmitor Mountains, which culminate at Bobotov Kuk (2,523 m).
Eighteen lakes are located in these valleys bounded by sedimentary or rocky ridges. The highest valley areas
are characterized by armchair-shaped hollows and perennial ice is present at the head of Karlica below
the peak of Šljeme (Kern et al. 2007) and also in caves such as Ledina Pećina (Veselinović et al. 2001). Two
phases of Pleistocene glaciation were observed on the Durmitor mountains, the older being stronger than
the younger phase. During the old phase 54% of the total surface of Durmitor was covered by ice, while
during the young phase 36% of this surface was under ice (Djurović 2009). After these two phases of
Figure 1: The Debeli Namet Glacier, Durmitor mountains, Montenegro, is one of the southernmost glaciers in Europe (August, 2010). 
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glaciation the present cirque glaciation phase came. It is represented by the Debeli Namet Glacier. The
existence of the Debeli Namet Glacier indicates that the glaciation process on the Durmitor has not been
interrupted after the Little Ice Age. This glacier is located at an elevation of 2,030–2,200 m (Djurović 2012;
Gachev 2017), which is much lower than the climatic snow line estimated at 2700m in the western (Milivojević,
Menković and Ćalić 2008) and 3,200 m in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula (Gachev 2011). The
north/northeast exposure of the terrain, as well as the highest mountain peaks surrounding this area, enabled
the accumulation of significantly more snow through avalanches and blizzards than can be supplied by
the atmospheric precipitation falling directly over glacier surface. Therefore, conditions still prevail in this
part of the Durmitor Mountain that allow the feeding of the existing glacier. The specific position of the
Debeli Namet Glacier is a factor for the smaller decrease of this glacier in comparison with other glaciers
in Southern Europe during the last 50 years (Djurović 2012), regardless of the increase in temperature evi-
dent at the end of the 20th and the first decades of the 21th century (Gachev 2017). 
3 Methods
For the assessment of temperatures and precipitation in the region of Debeli Namet Glacier the data from
Žabljak meteorological station of the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro (Zavod
za hidrometeorologiju i seizmologiju Crne Gore) in the period from 1991 to 2021 were used. Correlations
between the NAO and climate variables is evaluated by the NAO index data from the Hurrel Station-Based
NAO Index (https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-
station-based).
The volume of the Debeli Namet Glacier is calculated on the basis of rope measurements and pho-
tographs available on the website of the Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro
(www.meteo.co.me; Gachev 2020; Table 1), using the Chen and Ohmura empirical equation (1990):
V = 28.5S1.357,
where V is glacier volume in 106 m3 and S is glacier surface area in 106 m2. 
Temperatures in the region of glacier (2,035 m) were calculated on the basis of extrapolated temper-
ature data from the meteorological stationat Žabljak (1,450 m) using a lapse rate of 0.6 °C/100 m. The lowest
point of the glacier was chosen for the reference point because it has the highest temperature.
Based on instrumental measurements (Weather almanacs, Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology
of Montenegro) and statistical calculations, average annual temperature and precipitation in Žabljak were
Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023
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Table 1: Average temperatures for Žabljak meteorological station in glacier accumulation period December–March (upper row) and glacier
ablation period June–September (lower row) in two consecutive 30-year periods (provided by the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology
of Montenegro 2022).
Average temperature for December–March,1961–1990 Average temperature for December–March,1991–2020
T = –6.5 °C T = –5.5 °C
Average temperature for June–September,1961–1990 Average temperature for June–September,1991–2020
T = 8.9 °C T = 10.5 °C
Table 2: Average precipitation for Žabljak meteorological station in glacier accumulation period December–March (upper row) and glacier ablation
period June–September (lower row) in two consecutive 30-year periods (provided by the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of
Montenegro 2022).
Average precipitation for December–March, 1961–1990 Average precipitation for December–March, 1991–2020
122.1 mm 135.6 mm
Average precipitation for June–September, 1961–1990 Average precipitation for June–September, 1991–2020
97.4 mm 85.9 mm
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
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4.7 °C and 1493.6 mm respectively during the standard climate period 1961–1990. The new climate para-
meters in the next 30-year period from 1991 to 2020 are different: average annual temperature and precipitation
are 5.9 °C and 1505.2mm, respectively. There is an increase in both variables, the average annual temperature
increasing by ΔT = 1.2 °C while the average annual precipitation increased for 11.6 mm (about 0.8%). It is
obvious that the annual temperature change is significant while the annual change in amount of precipita-
tion is negligible. The temperature of the glacier accumulation period increased for +1 °C while temperature
of the glacier ablation period increased by +1.6 °C in these two consecutive 30-year periods (Table 1). 
Temperatures are lower than those suggested when a lapse rate of 0.6 °C/100 m is assumed because
the Debeli Namet Glacier is faced northeast and is favored by shading. Besides temperature, precipitation
is another important glacier mass balance variable. Average precipitation in accumulation and ablation
season in two 30-year periods is presented in Table 2. Average precipitation increased for 13.5 mm (11%)
in accumulation season and decreased for 11.5 mm (12%) in ablation season over two consecutive 30-year
periods. For the glaciers in the Dinaric Mountains, the winter precipitation, not the temperature, has the
leading role in the glacier existence (Gachev 2020). 
4 Results
4. 1 The accumulation period
The NAO index for the accumulation period refers to December–March (DJFM). In Montenegro, the
amount of precipitation in this period is correlated with the NAO; when DJFM NAO indices are nega-
tive, the amount of precipitation is above the average value, and vice-versa (Burić, Micev and Mitrović
2012). This could be disturbed by ENSO. Data from the meteorological station Žabljak show that years
with very low precipitation, 30%–60% lower than average, were: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1998, 2002, 2008, 2014,
2017 and 2019. They are characterized by positive DJFM NAO indices for the accumulation season (Figure 2).
Years with the highest precipitation, 20%–90% higher than average, were: 1996, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2013, 2018 and 2021. These years are mostly characterized by negative DJFM NAO indices
(Figure 2). The exceptions are years 2005 and 2018 with small but positive DJFM NAO indices suggest-
ing that the NAO does not affect climate variables much. In these years El Niño (in 2005) and La Niña
(in 2018) events could influence the climate variables more than NAO (Figure 3). It is also known that
switches from negative to positive NAO and vice versa are followed by noticeable changes in the aver-
age precipitation (Criado-Aldeanueva and Soto-Navarro 2020). In the last 30 years there is a moderate
negative correlation (Spearman’s correlation rs = –0.55, p = 0.002) between precipitation and DJFM NAO
index. This means that the rising/declining precipitation trend in the Durmitor Massif is related to the
negative/positive DJFM NAO index. 
Relationship between temperatures in the accumulation period and DJFM NAO indices shows that
the temperatures are mostly lower than average in the positive NAO phase. Namely, the years with the
temperatures which are more than 1 °C lower than average for this period, were: 1992, 1993, 2000, 2003,
2005, 2006, 2012. In these years the DJFM NAO indices are mostly positive. The only exception is the
year 2006 when the negative DJFM NAO was accompanied by the influence of La Niña. It seems that
La Niña has a more significant impact on the temperature than on the precipitation because in 2006
the amount of precipitation was higher than average and in correlation with negative DJFM NAO index.
The temperature in 2006 shows the opposite characteristic–it was lower than average in the accumu-
lation period. 
The highest temperatures in accumulation period should be expected in the years with the negative
NAO, but this is not the case. Years with the highest temperatures in accumulation period, more than 1.5 °C
higher than average for this period, were: 1994, 2001, 2007, 2014 and 2016. Only in 2001 a negative DJFM
NAO was recorded while other years were with a positive DJFM NAO index. It seems that El Niño events
in 1994, 2007 and 2014–2016, strongly influences the temperatures in the accumulation season (Figure 4).
Correlation between temperatures and DJFM NAO index is low and statistically insignificant (Spearman’s
correlation, t-test shows p = 0.52). These temperatures are in connection not only with the NAO but also
with the El Niño/La Niña events (Table 3).
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Figure 2: Precipitation for Žabljak meteorological station in accumulation period (blue columns) and DJFM NAO index (green line) for 1991–2021. The
dashed blue line shows the trend of increasing precipitation, while the solid blue line represents the average precipitation (provided by the Institute
for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro 2022 and by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022).
Figure 3: Warm (> +0.5 oC) and cold (< –0.5 oC) episodes for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in the period 1950–2022. The events are defined by ONI
as weak (0.5–0.9), moderate (1.0–1.4) and strong (≥ 1.5) (provided by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022 and National Weather
Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA 2022).
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
14
4. 2 The ablation period 
Summer precipitation and summer temperatures are the main causes of the glacier shrinking. The NAO
index for the ablation period refers to July–September (JAS). In the Mediterranean region the NAO influ-
ence in this period is less pronounced than in accumulation period. Years with precipitation above 110 mm
or 30%–50% higher than average for ablation period, were: 1995, 2006, 2007, 2014 and 2020. Years with
precipitation less than 70 mm, i.e. 20%–44% lower than average for ablation period, were: 1991, 1993, 1994,
1997, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2021. These years are mostly characterized by negative JAS NAO indices
(Figure 5). Exceptions are in 1997 with the strong El Niño and in 2017 and 2021 with moderate La Niña.
It can be said that a negative JAS NAO is the leading factor that determines extreme precipitation in the
ablation period. During the period 1991–2021 precipitation trend is almost constant. 
Temperatures in the ablation season rose slightly in the considered 30-years period (Figure 6). For the
temperatures above 11 °C, which are more than 0.5 °C higher than average in ablation season, the JAS NAO
indices are mostly negative. Years with these temperatures were: 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2010–2012, 2015,
–4
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Figure 4: Temperatures for Žabljak meteorological station in accumulation period (orange columns) and DJFM NAO index (light blue line) for 1991–2021.
The dashed orange line shows the trend of increasing temperature while the solid violet line represents the average temperature (provided by the Institute
for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro 2022 and by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022).
Table 3: The influence of La Niña/ El Niño and DJFM NAO combinations on the precipitation and temperature in the Durmitor region for 1991–2021
(provided by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022 and National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
USA 2022).
precipitation temperature
La Niña NAO + ↑
NAO – ↓
El Niño NAO + ↑
NAO –
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Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023
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Figure 5: Precipitation for Žabljak meteorological station in ablation period (blue columns) and JAS NAO index (red line) for 1991–2021. The dashed
blue line shows that precipitation tends to be almost constant, while the solid green line represents the average precipitation (provided by the Institute
for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro 2022 and by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022).
Figure 6: Temperatures for Žabljak meteorological station in ablation period (orange columns) and JAS NAO index (blue line) for 1991–2021. The dashed
orange line shows the trend of increasing temperature while the purple line represents average temperature (provided by the Institute for
Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro 2022 and by the National Center for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022).
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
16
2017, 2019 and 2021. Exceptions are the positive JAS NAO indices in the years 2011 (strong La Niña), 2017
and 2021 (moderate La Niña). Years with the temperatures lower than 10 °C, i.e. more than 0.5 °C less than
average for this season, are mostly with the positive JAS NAO indices. These years were: 1991, 1995–1997,
2005 and 2016. In the 1991 and 1995 JAS NAO was negative and accompanied with El Niño. 
Table 4 shows the exceptions when La Niña and a positive JAS NAO reduce precipitation below the
average but increase the temperature above the average value as in the years 2011, 2017 and 2021. In the
ablation period extreme precipitation and the highest temperatures are mainly characterized by the neg-
ative JAS NAO. On the other hand, El Niño has a great influence on the lowest temperatures regardless
of the JAS NAO phase. Its influence on the precipitation is ambiguous.
Table 4: The influence of La Niña/ El Niño and JAS NAO combinations on the precipitation and temperature in the Durmitor region for Žabljak
meteorological station for 1991–2021 (provided by the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro 2022, the National Center
for Atmosferic Research, USA 2022 and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA 2022).
precipitation temperature
La Niña NAO + ↓ ↑
NAO –
El Niño NAO + ↓
NAO – ↓
4. 3 Influence of NAO on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
For the further analysis, climate data were summarized in accordance with the glacier size. The size of the
glacier was calculated empirically. The annual NAO index reflects both, the NAO influence in the glaci-
er accumulation period and the NAO influence in the glacier ablation period. Therefore, it is convenient
for comparison with the glacier size measured in autumn, mainly in October (Figure 7). A negative annu-
al NAO is mainly related with the increase in glacier size, while a positive annual NAO is mainly related
with the decrease in glacier size. The exceptions are years 2012, 2013 and 2018. 
In the accumulation period size of the glacier increases when the DJFM NAO decreases and vice versa
(Figure 8). This is in agreement with the correlation between NAO and precipitation in accumulation peri-
od. The lowest glacier size was in 2017 as a result of very low winter precipitation followed by hot and dry
summer. The Spearman’s correlation between glacier size and DJFM NAO index in the accumulation peri-
od is moderate negative correlation (rs = –0.62, p = 0.019). 
5 Discussion
The NAO index is widely recognized as the one of the most important modes of the atmospheric vari-
ability in the northern hemisphere in the present and future (Rousi et al. 2020). There are indications that
NAO is correlated not only with the geophysical phenomena but also with the solar cycle (Thiéblemont
et al. 2015; Zharkova 2020; Drews et al. 2021).
In this article we present the NAO influence on climate variables in the Durmitor region. The focus
is on temperature and precipitation especially in the accumulation period important for existence of the
Debeli Namet Glacier. In the last 30 years there were 21 years with the positive NAO indices and only nine
with the negative NAO index values. This means that about 2/3 of the considered period was character-
ized by the precipitation lower than average for the accumulation season. As the Žabljak meteorological
station has a leeward position to the atmospheric advections from the southwest, which serve as the main
sources of precipitation, it is worth to consider data from meteorological stations situated on the wind-
ward side like Nikšić and Šavnik (Figure 9). Not surprisingly, Nikšić and Šavnik receive more precipitation
than Žabljak in the accumulation period but the trends are similar in all three cities, caused by the NAO
influence (Burić, Micev and Mitrović 2012).
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Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023
17
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40
1993 1997 1998 2003 2005 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
Year
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th
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N
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1993 1997 1998 2003 2005 2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Figure 7: Size (in 106 m3) of the Debeli Namet Glacier (blue columns) and annual NAO index (red line) for the period 1993–2018. The dashed blue
line shows that the glacier size tends to decrease (provided by the National Center for Atmosferic Research,USA 2022; Gachev 2020; Table 1).
Figure 8: Size (in 106 m3) of the Debeli Namet Glacier (blue columns) and DJFM NAO index (green line) for the period 1993–2018. The dashed blue
line shows that the glacier size tends to decrease (provided by the National Center for Atmosferic Research,USA 2022; Gachev 2020; Table 1).
63-1_acta49-1.qxd  17.10.2023  6:23  Page 17
Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
18
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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DJFM NAOJezerce III Debeli Namet Banski Suh Snezhnika
Figure 9: Precipitation in accumulation period for Žabljak, Nikšić and Šavnik meteorological stations for 1991–2021 (note that there is no data for Šavnik
before the year 2000; provided by Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro).
Figure 10: Size (in 106 m3) of the current glaciers in the Balkans: Jezerce III (Prokletije), Debeli Namet (Durmitor), Banski Suhodol and Snezhnika (Pirin)
and DJFM NAO index for the period 2011–2018. There is no data for Banski Suhodol and Snezhnika for 2018 (Gachev 2020).
63-1_acta49-1.qxd  17.10.2023  6:23  Page 18
The nearest glaciers to the Debeli Namet Glacier are located in the Prokletije Mountains, Albania (Palmentola
et al. 1995; Hughes 2009; Grunewalad and Scheithauer 2010; Gachev 2017). They are located below north-
east-facing cliffs near the highest peak of this range, Maja Jezerce (2694 m). The largest (Jezerce III; Gachev
2020) was chosen for comparison with other current glaciers in the Balkans–Debeli Namet and glaciers in
the Pirin Mountain, Bulgaria–Banski Suhodol and Snezhnika. Sizes of the glaciers are given in Figure 10.
Glaciers in the Pirin Mountain with a more continental climate are less sensitive on climate change than
glaciers in the Dinaric Mountains. This is in accordance with previous studies (Gachev 2020). The heatwaves
in the summers in 2012 and 2017 together with the low winter precipitation caused record minimum of those
glaciers (Figure 2 and Figure 6). Periods of glacier advance are characterized by a negative DJFM NAO index,
while periods of glacier retreat are characterized by a positive DJFM NAO index. This situation can be changed
under the influence of La Niña like in 2018, especially when the NAO index has small value.
Small glaciers respond quickly to extreme weather conditions. If warm summers follow winters with
few snowfalls over several years, they shrink until they reach a new equilibrium mass balance or melt com-
pletely. Also, phases with above-average winter precipitation and cooler summers are often sufficient to
stabilize small glaciers or even produce re-advance. For example, at Debeli Namet Glacier, a new moraine
developed between 1994 and 2003, and between 2004 and 2006, due to small glacier advances (Grunewald
and Scheithauer 2010). In the Julian Alps recent increases in winter snowfall provide resilience to very small
glaciers (Colucci et al. 2021). Gachev (2022) studied response of very small glaciers in the Pirin Mountains
to climate variations and found that their short-term size fluctuations are mostly related to the tempera-
ture conditions during the ablation season. Twenty-first century glaciers and climate in the Prokletije
Mountains have been studied by Hughes (2009).
6 Conclusion
We analyzed the climate variables in the region of Durmitor Massif over the last 30 years and their influ-
ence on the Debeli Namet Glacier. In the first part of the article we analyzed temperature and precipitation
tendencies in the periods of accumulation and ablation. Average temperature in accumulation (ablation)
period in the last 30 years is 1 °C (1.6 °C) higher than average temperature in accumulation (ablation) peri-
od in 1961–1990. The lowest temperatures in the accumulation period are mainly in the years with a positive
DJFM NAO while the highest temperatures in this period are driven by the combined NAO and ENSO
phenomena. In the last 30 years precipitation in accumulation (ablation) period increased 11% (decreased
12%) compared to the period 1961–1990.
The main mechanism that drives precipitation in accumulation period is the NAO measured by the
DJFM NAO index. In the Durmitor region the lowest precipitation is in the years with the positive DJFM
NAO index while the highest precipitation is mainly in the years with the negative DJFM NAO index. We
suggest that this situation may change under the influence of ENSO events, especially in the years when
the NAO index is low. 
In ablation period the NAO influence, measured by the JAS NAO index, is less pronounced than in
accumulation period. Almost every two years since 2010 has been a year with low precipitation and above
average temperatures. This fact shows that the climate variables in the ablation period have moved towards
higher temperatures and lower precipitation in the last 30 years. We found that the negative JAS NAO is
the leading factor that determines extreme precipitation in the ablation period. Surprisingly, there is a good
correspondence between the positive JAS NAO and the lowest temperatures and between the negative JAS
NAO and the highest temperatures in the ablation period. 
In the second part of the article, we compared the annual and DJFM NAO with the size of the Debeli
Namet Glacier. The size of the glacier increases when DJFM NAO decreases and vice versa. The situation
is the same with precipitation. This result suggests that there is no significant relationship between glacier
size and ablation temperatures. We found that precipitation in accumulation period has the leading role in
glacier size fluctuations. Glaciers located in the Prokletije Mountains, Albania and in the Pirin Mountain,
Bulgaria show similar trend in the size variations. The fact is that glaciers in the Pirin Mountain with a more
continental climate are less sensitive on climate change than glaciers in the Dinaric Mountains. 
ACKNOWLEDGMENT: The research and writing of this work was funded by the Montenegrin National
Project »Physics of Ionized Gases and Ionized Radiation«.
Acta geographica Slovenica, 63-1, 2023
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Gordana Jovanović, The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Debeli Namet Glacier 
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