.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) "(5 VID <5 cB fN (V C Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XX / 2014 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Urška Brodar, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................19 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................22 Boxes Box 1: ECB measures to boost the economic recovery...............................................................................................8 Box 2: Real estate market - Q1 2014.................................................................................................................................12 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................25 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Reflecting the continuation of economic growth in the euro area in the first quarter of the year, the values of short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicate further improvement. In the first quarter of 2014, euro area GDP was up 0.9% year-on-year, again mainly due to higher exports. Private and investment consumption also made positive contributions to GDP change. Growth was nevertheless somewhat lower than expected by the ECB, so that it lowered its forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0%. Like other international institutions, the ECB expects economic activity to be supported by stronger domestic demand. Among the downside risks, it cites geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected economic activity in emerging market economies. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia are higher than in the same period last year, except for turnover in retail trade. In the first four months of 2014 as a whole, real exports, which otherwise remained unchanged at the monthly level in April, seasonally adjusted, were much higher in than in the same period last year. Production volume in manufacturing (which otherwise also declined slightly in April) has been growing modestly this year and was also up year-on-year. Expectations regarding demand in the next months are favourable as well. Construction activity strengthened significantly again in April, almost reaching the level seen three years earlier. Activity increased most notably in the construction of civil-engineering structures, being also slightly higher in the construction of buildings. Turnover in retail trade rose somewhat in April, but persists at a similar, very low, level for as long as a year. Growth in employment has been rising modestly since February, while registered unemployment slowly decreases and average gross earnings stagnate (seasonally adjusted). The modest growth of the number of employed persons, seen since the second quarter of 2013, has strengthened somewhat since February this year (in April to 0.3%, seasonally adjusted). Employment was also up year-on-year. The number of registered unemployed persons has been falling since March (seasonally adjusted), mainly due to increased hiring. At the end of June it was similar to that a year earlier. Average gross earnings also remained almost unchanged in April; they rose slightly only in the public sector, primarily in public corporations, and, after stagnating in the last two quarters, also in the general government sector due to the payment of the previously suspended promotions. Consumer price growth stood at 0.1% in June. The low level of inflation was a result of seasonal movements. At the monthly level, it was up largely as a result of higher prices of holiday packages, while it was reduced by lower prices of fruit. Weak domestic demand and the absence of price shocks from the international environment continue to influence the low year-on-year growth (0.8%), which remains marked primarily by higher services prices. In the euro area, in June, year-on-year price growth was the lowest in the last five years (0.5%). In the first quarter, cost competitiveness again improved more than, on average, in the euro area and the EU. Unit labour costs per employee continued to decline in real terms. At the same time, there was an increase in labour productivity, for the second quarter in a row mainly due to higher economic activity. The majority of other euro area and EU countries recorded smaller real declines in unit labour costs than Slovenia. The relative position of Slovenia in the euro area and the EU has thus been improving since 2010, but is still worse than before the crisis. The deleveraging of non-banking sectors is easing gradually, while banks continue to deleverage abroad; interest rates for businesses remain high, the share of non-performing claims rose again. In the first five months of the year, the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors was approximately EUR 480 m lower (in the same period last year, approximately EUR 850 m lower). In our estimation, this has to do with the slightly improved access to sources of debt financing for credit-worthy customers, though the borrowing terms remain fairly tight also for these customers. Banks continued to make debt repayments abroad. The creation of additional impairments and provisions slowed. In the first four months of the year, their level was around 40% lower year-on-year. The share of non-performing claims rose by 0.3 percentage points to 14.8%. According to the data from the consolidated balance sheet, the general government deficit in the first four months (EUR 707 m) was EUR 276 m smaller than a year before. Revenue was 6.8% higher, expenditure 0.6% higher. For the first time in two years, revenue increased in all categories. The main contributors to expenditure growth were investment and interest payments, while expenditure on goods and services and transfers to individuals declined. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment After the continuation of GDP growth in the euro area in the first quarter of the year, the values of short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicate further improvement in the second quarter. Economic growth in the euro area continued in the first quarter of 2014 (0.2%, seasonally adjusted). GDP was up 0.9% year-on-year, again mainly due to higher exports. Positive contributions to GDP change were also made by private and investment consumption. Growth was nevertheless somewhat lower than expected by the ECB, which therefore revised downwards its forecast for annual growth by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0%. Similar to other international institutions, the ECB expects economic activity to be supported by domestic demand benefitting from the accommodative monetary policy stance, a less restrictive fiscal policy, improving financial conditions and rising confidence. Among the downside risks to the projections for GDP growth, the ECB mainly cites geopolitical risks and a significant slowdown of economic activity in emerging market economies. The values of short-term indicators of Figure 1: Structure of economic growth in the euro area ■ Private consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation ■ Exports of goods&services -GDP (right axis) Government consumption is^si Changes in inventories Imports of goods&services 3 ,!= 2 (D 1 Q. I it 0 1 iä Figure 2: Yields to maturity of ten-year government bonds Slovenia -Portugal -Spain -Italy -----Ireland .........Germany .................Austria iE 8 ci 4 ^ Source: Bloomberg. Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) Q1 12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q113 Q2 Source: Eurostat. Q3 Q4 Q1 14 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Money market interest rates and the exchange rates of national currencies against the EUR Interest rates average, in % change, in b. p. 2013 VI 13 V 14 VI 14 VI 14/V 14 VI 14/VI 13 3-month EURIBOR rate 0.220 0.210 0.325 0.241 -8.4 3.1 3-month USD LIBOR rate 0.268 0.274 0.226 0.231 0.5 -4.3 3-month CHF LIBOR rate 0.021 0.030 0.016 0.012 -0.4 -1.8 Exchange rates average change, in % 2013 VI 13 V 14 VI 14 VI 14/V 14 VI 14/VI 13 EUR/USD 1.328 1.319 1.373 1.359 -1.0 3.1 EUR/CHF 1.231 1.232 1.221 1.218 -0.2 -1.1 EUR/GBP 0.849 0.852 0.815 0.804 -1.3 -5.6 EUR/JPY 129.66 128.40 139.66 138.72 -0.7 8.0 16 10 6 2 0 3 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 Box 1: ECB measures to boost the economic recovery In pursuing its price stability mandate, at its latest meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB adopted further measures to improve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and boost lending to the economy. In June, the ECB thus lowered the interest rates again (after November 2013) to the lowest levels in the history of the euro. Besides by cutting the key interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.15%, and the interest rate on the marginal lending facility by 35 basis points to 0.40%, the ECB is also trying to stimulate the lending activity of commercial banks by lowering the interest rate on the deposit facility, which is now negative (-0.10%). Moreover, the ECB will also continue to offer short-term loans and stimulate economic recovery by new auctions under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). Under the TLTROs, a total of EUR 400 bn with be available to banks with a four-year maturity and a fixed interest rate (0.25%) to be used for lending to businesses (primarily to small and medium-sized enterprises), rather than buying government bonds or granting household loans. Banks will also have to submit regular reports on the use of loans. The ECB also announced the end of the sterilisation under the Securities Market Programme (SMP), which will increase liquidity by EUR 167.5 bn. With a view to improving the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the ECB will speed up preparatory work for buying asset-backed securities (ABS).1 Figure 4: ECB interest rates Figure 5: Money market interest rates 2.0 -Key interest rate - Deposit facility - Marginal lending facility -EONIA 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 ...L 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 -EURIBOR 1m -EURIBOR 3m EURIBOR 12m • Spread EURIBOR (12 m-1m), right axis rNrNrNrNrNrNmmmmmmT^T^T^ ^^ I ^^ & I ^^ & I Source: ECB, Euribor-EBF; calculations by IMAD. CN CN CN CN CN CN m J^ i| I jp J^ ü I jp J^ ü I Source: Euribor-EBF; calculations by IMAD. 1 Securities that are backed by financial assets and not by a mortgage. Table 2: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Oil average change, in % 2013 VI 13 V 14 VI 14 VI 14/V 14 VI 14/VI 13 Brent USD 108.56 102.92 109.52 111.80 2.1 8.6 Brent EUR 81.66 78.08 79.42 82.28 3.6 5.0 Commodities change, in % 2013/2012 IV 14/V 14 V 14/V 13 Non-energy commoditites -1.2 -1.9 -1.0 Food 1.1 -1.4 -1.1 Agricultural raw materials 1.4 -1.5 4.0 Metals -4.2 -2.9 -6.7 Source: EIA, ECB, IMF, calculations by IMAD. economic activity1 and confidence indicators otherwise indicate a continuation of economic growth in the euro area in the second quarter. 1 In April, production volume in manufacturing was 0.6% higher, construction put in place 0.8% higher and turnover in retail trade 0.4% higher, seasonally adjusted. Euro area ten-year government bond yields continued to drop in June. Yields-to-maturity of government bonds of both the countries with the highest credit ratings and peripheral countries fell significantly after the 5'h of June when the ECB lowered its key interest rate and undertook some other measures to encourage lending to the economy. The euro price of Brent crude oil rose in June due to an increase in the dollar price and a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. The price of Brent crude rose in particular in the second half of June due to the turmoil in Iraq (OPEC's second largest oil exporter). It was up to 111.80 USD/barrel in the month as a whole. With the fall in the average value of the euro against the US dollar to the lowest level this year (USD 1.359 per euro), the euro price of oil rose to EUR 82.28 per barrel, which is 5.0% higher than in June 2013. Figure 6: Non-energy commodity prices in dollars Figure 7: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Non-energy commodities -----Agricultural raw materials ------Metals -----Food 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 - Industrijske surovine ^ Source: IMF. Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity were up year-on-year, except for turnover in retail trade. In the first four months of 2014 as a whole, real exports (which otherwise remained unchanged month-on-month in April, seasonally adjusted) were much higher in than in the same period last year. Production volume in manufacturing (which otherwise declined slightly in April) has been growing modestly this year and was also higher year-on-year. Expectations regarding demand in the next months are also favourable. Construction activity strengthened significantly again in April, almost reaching the level seen three years earlier. Activity increased most notably in the construction of civil-engineering structures, being also slightly higher in the construction of buildings. Although it rose somewhat in April, turnover in retail trade persists at a similar, very low, level for as long as a year. In April, real merchandise exports remained, according to our estimate, similar to those in March (seasonally adjusted), while in the first four months they were up 6.3% year-on-year.2 Exports to both EU and non-EU countries - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manuf. - Value of construction put in place Turnover in retail trade Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2013 IV 14/ III 14 IV 14/ IV 13 I-IV 14/ I-IV 13 Exports1 2.5 14.1 3.7 4.1 -goods 1.8 11.4 5.4 5.2 -services 5.6 28.2 -3.6 -0.6 Imports1 -1.5 5.4 2.6 3.1 -goods -1.9 4.6 2.2 2.2 -services 1.4 11.0 5.9 9.7 Industrial production -0.9 0.02 3.03 2.13 -manufacturing -1.5 -0.92 1.13 1.83 Construction -value of construction put in place -2.6 8.92 44.73 37.23 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 2.02 2.53 0.03 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -0.3 -0.22 3.13 2.93 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. stayed at almost the same level as in March. The year-on-year growth of total merchandise exports in the first four months (6.3%) resulted from higher exports to the EU, while exports to countries outside the EU were lower year-on-year. The largest contributions to this year's year-on-year growth in merchandise exports were made by exports to Croatia, Austria and Germany, followed by exports to Hungary, the US, Italy and Switzerland, while exports to the Czech Republic, Russia and France3 made the largest negative contributions to growth. A breakdown according to product groups shows that the total year-on-year growth of merchandise exports was mainly due to electrical machinery and appliances 2 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market. 3 Detailed data on merchandise exports by country and product are available for the first three months of this year. 60 and road vehicles, while the contributions of exports of medical and pharmaceutical products and oil and oil derivatives, the main factors in last year's export growth, are modest this year. Figure 8: Exports of selected products 12013/2012 1 Jan-Mar 2014/Jan-Mar 2013 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 SI 0.4 -C 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0 C -0.4 -0.6 i.....i.............i.............i.............i.............i......... i.............4.......... "i.............T" ^ ' 1 i i i r ....................A™ .1 jI V| 0) o röu o 2 ^^ CL -S5 o 1E ^^ E lE 13 ^ C5 un c^ 1Ž c^ t; E iT Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: The selected products accounted for more than half of total merchandise exports in the first 3 months of2014. Real merchandise imports rose in April, but they have maintained practically the same levels for as much as a year (seasonally adjusted).4 Imports of consumer goods have risen in this period, primarily due to passenger car imports. Imports of investment goods, which have been rising since mid-2013, are down year-on-year, given that they increased notably at the beginning of 2013 due to the imports of investment equipment for a large energy facility. Imports of intermediate goods have been falling in recent months, mostly owing to lower imports of fuels Figure 9: Merchandise imports by end-use of products -Investment goods -----Intermediate goods -Consumer goods Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. and lubricants. In the first four months of this year real merchandise imports were up 1.2%. Nominal exports and imports of services rose in April, but they have remained - with monthly fluctuations - roughly unchanged since September (seasonally adjusted).5 Exports of travel and transport services have stagnated for several months, while exports of other business services have been declining and exports of other services6 have been rising slowly. Among the latter, in April, exports of communication, personal, cultural, recreation and insurance services rose in particular. Looking at imports, imports of travel services continue to decline, while imports of transport services fluctuate around the level seen at the end of last year. Like exports, imports of other business services are declining, while imports of other services are increasing (in April, particularly insurance services). According to original data, exports of services in the first four months were similar to those in the same period last year (-0.6%), while imports were 9.7% higher. Figure 10: Trade in services - nominal Exports of services -Imports of services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. PProduction volume in manufacturing in the first four months overall remained similar to that at the end of last year, when it had increased more notably. After the strong growth in March, it dropped somewhat in April but remained up relative to the preceding months (seasonally adjusted). In the first four months it was 1.8% larger (working-day adjusted) than in the same period last year. It was up in all medium-low-technology industries, notably in the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, where the gap with the pre-crisis level is wider than in other medium-low-technology industries. Production volume was also higher year-on-year in low- 4 The estimate of real merchandise imports is based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. 5 According to the balance of payments statistics. 6 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we placed communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for almost a fifth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 technology industries (with the exception of the textile industry), where the recovery is the most modest, and in the majority of industries of higher technology intensity. The largest increase relative to last year was recorded by the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment, which, in addition to the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, also exceeds the production level of 2008. Figure 11: Production volume in manufacturing industries by technology intensity -----Low-technology industries —— Medium-low-technology industries - Medium-high-and high-technology industries - Manufacturing, total Source: surs; calculations by imad. Turnover in the manufacturing sector was up year-on-year in the first four months, and the expectations regarding demand in the next few months are favourable. Turnover on the foreign market has increased more strongly this year and exceeded the levels recorded in the same period last year by 3.8%, being higher in and outside the euro area (4.2% and 3.3%, respectively). Turnover on the domestic Figure 12: Indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing —♦— Prices -----Production ----Exports 40 c o äE C is -50 Jb Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. market, having increased modestly at the beginning of the year, also exceeded the level in the same period of 2013 (2.7%), when it was at one of the lowest levels since the beginning of the crisis. The expectations regarding total demand continue to improve this year, which has a favourable impact on expectations about production and employment. In May, the share of enterprises surveyed that expect an increase in demand and production over the next three months was a quarter higher than the share of those expecting a decline. However, enterprises do not yet expect to start hiring this year, but the share of those anticipating further cuts in employment declined significantly. Construction activity continued to pick up in April. The value of construction put in place rose by 6.7% (seasonally adjusted). With modest growth since the third quarter of 2013 and owing to the low base, activity was as much as 48.8% higher year-on-year in April (40.0% higher in the first four months as a whole). This year it strengthened particularly in the construction of civil-engineering structures, being also slightly higher in the construction of buildings. The favourable developments in civil engineering are related to the construction of municipal infrastructure co-financed by EU funds, but they are also a consequence of ice damage repair. The stock of contracts in the construction sector has declined this year. After having increased substantially in 2013 (by 35.5% in the entire year), it was 8.9% lower at the end of April than at the end of the year. In civil engineering the stock of contracts remained unchanged, while it declined in residential and non-residential construction, where it was also lower than in the same period last year. Figure 13: Value of construction output, seasonally adjusted (U 120 80 60 40 1Ž 20 Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering structures « i\ I \ V , Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Turnover in retail trade continues to stagnate, while turnover in the sale of motor vehicles declines after last year's growth and turnover in wholesale trade continues to grow, 100 0 Box2: Real estate market - Q1 2014 The number of transactions in existing flats increased in the first quarter for the second time in a row, while transactions in newly built flats declined again. According to SURS data, the number of all dwelling transactions (in newly built and existing flats and family houses) dropped in the first quarter (original data) after significant growth at the end of last year,1 but was a tenth higher than a year earlier. The majority of transactions (almost three quarters) were in existing flats, whose number had increased for the second consecutive quarter and was 15.6% higher than a year earlier. The sale of existing flats in Ljubljana increased in particular, while the sale in the rest of Slovenia remained the same as in the last quarter of 2013. Given the fall in the sale of new flats, the number of transactions in new dwellings declined for the third consecutive quarter and was the lowest since 2008 at 160. In the first quarter dwelling prices declined further. After the sharp fall in the third and stagnation in the fourth quarter of 2013, dwelling prices declined further in the first quarter of 2014 (original data), being down 6.6% from the same period in 2012 and more than a fifth lower than their peak value in 2008. The prices of all existing dwellings declined, notably the prices of existing flats. Existing flats in Ljubljana lost the most value relative to 2008 (27.8%), their prices dropping for the seventh quarter in a row. The prices of new dwellings rose slightly, but remained lower than a year earlier. Figure 14: Transactions in existing and newly built flats Figure 15: Prices of existing and newly built flats - Transactions in existing flats ■ Transactions in newly built flats ----Transactions in existing houses -Transactions in newly built houses - Prices of existing flats • Prices of newly built flats ----Prices of existing houses -Prices of newly built houses 60 40 100 — 80 ; 100 ;; 95 E Jk 85 O O O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. O O O O O So u rce: SURS; calculations by IM AD. 1 When releasing the figures for Q1 2014, SURS also corrected the number of transactions for Q3 and Q4 2013 due the inclusion of the most recent data. The sale in the final quarter of 2014 was in fact much higher (17.4%), which was a result of a 22.8% increase in the sale of existing dwellings. The number of all transactions in existing dwellings in 2013 thus was only 9% smaller than in 2012 (instead of a third smaller). seasonally adjusted. With slight monthly fluctuations, turnover in retail trade persists at roughly the same very low level since spring 2013. Within retail trade, in April, turnover declined further in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products, where it was the lowest since 2008, and in the sale of non-food products, where it has been practically unchanged since the second half of last year. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels strengthened more notably and was much higher than a year earlier, also as a consequence of more automotive fuels sold. After increasing in 2013, turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles declines this year, while turnover in wholesale trade keeps growing after the relatively significant decline in February. upward trend. Growth is mostly underpinned by transport services, particularly in land transport owing to stronger road freight transport abroad and railway transport.8 Turnover in accommodation and food service activities also continued to grow in April and was 3.7% higher year-on-year. Turnover was also slightly higher year-on-year in information and communication services. In the remaining two main categories of services, it was around 1% lower. The decline in turnover in professional and technical services is mainly due to legal and accounting services, as turnover in architectural and engineering services was already higher (also relative to the 2013 average, while it was still a fifth lower than on average in 2008). In administrative and support service activities, Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)7 fell slightly in April, seasonally adjusted, but maintained its 7 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 8 Year-on-year, exports of services in rail transport rose by a third, in road transport by more than a tenth (as the number of trucks passing through toll stations remained almost the same, we assume that the increase is the result of higher road transport abroad; sources BS and DARS). 160 105 140 o 120 90 80 75 Figure 16: Turnover in trade sectors - Retail trade, real of which automotive fuels, real Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. ^100 95 90 85 80 75 '■TD ro 70 C o 65 i i ' , I f d^jM. ^.....i^fc^....!... Figure 18: Household consumption indicators -----No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Turnover in stores selling durables (left axis) — Net wage bill (right axis) 130 120 i? 110 100 E 90 c o 80 106 104 102 i? o 100 E -C 98 <Š 96 - 90 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SURS, Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning; calculations by IMAD. turnover continued to rise in employment services, while it declined in travel agencies (+29% or -36% relative to the 2008 levels, respectively). of 2013, while housing loans were up somewhat (1.3%). Household deposits at banks increased markedly again (1.3%), for the first time since mid-2012. Figure 17: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional-technical activ. (M) - Administrative and support service activities ( ------Accommodation and food service activities (I) Sü 110 105 ■ o E 100 o !E 95 ■ Ji 90 ■ >< -1 -2 Figure 26: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals,fabric.metal prod.,ex. mach.,equip.(domestic) ---------Mfr.of food products;beverages;tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign market) 16 12 8 4 5 (D 0 -8 -12 In May industrial producer prices remained lower year-on-year on both the domestic and foreign markets;prices of imported products were also down. Industrial producer prices continue to fall on the domestic and foreign markets (-1.5% and -0.7%, respectively). The lower prices on both markets thus continue to be mainly impacted by lower prices in the manufacture of metals, on the domestic market also by lower prices in the manufacture of ICT and electrical appliances (-3.0%). Besides lower prices of chemical products (-4.4%), the latter also contributed to the year-on-year decline in import prices (-1.1%), which had been lower for the tenth month in a row. Figure 27: Real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP, January-April 2014 ■ NEER IHICP »REER HICP ä 0 In April Slovenia remained in the group of euro area countries with relatively smaller losses in the price competitiveness of the economy.16 The real effective exchange rate as measured by the relative HICP17 was up year-on-year in April (by 0.7%) due to the appreciation of the euro, particularly against the JPY, USD and CZK. The decline in relative prices continued in April, for the fourth month in a row. The year-on-year deterioration in price competitiveness seen since January 2013 (with the exception of February 2014) has been steadily easing since September 2013. A smaller group of euro area countries recorded improvement in price competitiveness in this period.18 Figure 28: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and the EU ^^ RULC Slovenia ^hRULC EU -Productivity Slovenia -Productivity EU -----Compensation per empl. Slovenia -----Compensation per empl. EU_ 110 108 Ji o 106 CD (C 104 102 100 (Ü > 98 96 D ET 94 92 90 a a a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Real unit labour costs in EU countries, Q1 2014 7 6 5 4 2 1 o 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 I— cc u ■ Productivity -real* ■ Compensation per employee -real* ♦ RULC Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * GDP deflator. 16 In April and the first four months of the year, Slovenia was in 13th place in terms of the year-on-year deterioration. 17 In Slovenia, in comparison with its trading partners. 18 In the final quarter of 2013 and the first four months of this year, price competitiveness impoved in three euro area countries. -16 3 2 -1 -2 Table 9: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness Annual change, in % 2012 2013 q2 13 q3 13 q4 13 q1 14 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -1.2 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 Real, deflator HICP -1.1 1.3 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.6 Real, deflator ULC -3.0 -1.6 -1.3 -1.0 -2.0 N/A Unit labour costs. economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 0.8 -0.8 -0.5 -1.1 -2.7 -1.5 Compensation of employees per employee. nominal -1.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 Labour productivity, real -1.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 3.2 2.1 Real unit labour costs 0.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -3.4 -2.8 Labour productivity, nominal -1.5 1.9 2.7 2.8 3.9 3.5 SORS. ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 against 36 trading partners. according to ECB. In the first quarter the cost competitiveness of the economy again improved more year-on-year than on average in the euro area and the EU. Amid modest nominal growth, compensation per employee continued to decline in real terms. At the same time, there was an increase in labour productivity, which, for the fourth consecutive quarter, mainly arose from higher economic activity. In the first quarter, the decline in employment - which had been easing steadily since the beginning of last year - almost came to a halt (-0.2%). Nominal and real unit labour costs therefore dropped again in the first quarter. In the majority of other euro area and EU countries19 unit labour costs increased in nominal terms, while their real declines were mostly smaller than in Slovenia. After the more pronounced loss in cost competitiveness at the beginning of the crisis, Slovenia's relative position in the euro area and the EU improved in the first quarter, for the fourth year in a row, although it was still lower than before the crisis. Balance of payments The surplus of the current account of the balance of payments remains significant. The surplus in merchandise trade continues to grow. In the first four months of this year the current account surplus was somewhat lower (EUR 710.2 m) than in the same period last year (EUR 769.9 m), mainly due to higher net outflows of factor income and a lower surplus in services trade. The deficit in the balance of current transfers was somewhat wider year-on-year, despite April's improvement. In April the surplus in external trade was wider year-on-year owing to a larger surplus in merchandise trade. The improvement in the balance of trade was largely a result of increased demand from EU countries. The lower surplus in services trade was, as in the previous months this year, mainly attributable to trade in other business services,20 which turned from a surplus into a deficit. Figure 30: Components of the current account balance 400 ■ Merchandise trade ■ Factor income -Current account Services trade Current transfers 0 LU -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 —————— Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In April the deficit in the balance of factor income was again somewhat higher year-on-year, while the balance of current transfers improved. The deficit in factor income is widening on account of higher net payments of interest on external debt due to the accelerated government sector borrowing. The private sector continued to deleverage abroad,21 so that its interest payments declined. The total net payments of interest in the first four months stood at EUR 243.7 (EUR 138.2 in the same period of 2013). The year-on-year improvement in the balance of current transfers in April was mainly impacted by a lower deficit in private sector transfers. The receipts from the EU budget under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy and from the Cohesion Fund were also higher. International financial transactions22 recorded a net ouflow again in April, a net inflow being recorded only in direct investment. The total net outflow of financial 19 Data are available for 22 EU Member States (15 euro area countries). 20 Other business services include operating leasing, merchanting and various business, professional and technical services. 21 The private sector includes affiliated entities of direct investors, domestic commercial banks and other sectors (enterprises and households). 22 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. 300 200 100 Figure 31: Financial transactions of the balance of payments 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 E 500 cc 03 0 J= -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 ■ Direct investment I Financial derivatives -Net financial flow I Portfolio investment Other investment Source: BS. Table 10: Balance of payments IV 14, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, IV 13 Current account 10,023.1 9,312.9 710.2 769.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 7,703.1 7,218.3 484.8 260.4 - Services 1,617.3 1,057.9 559.4 662.7 - Income 217.8 498.3 -280.5 -106.6 Current transfers 484.9 538.3 -53.4 -46.6 Capital and financial account 4,487.8 -5,334.0 -846.2 -1,163.8 - Capital account 114.8 -108.6 6.2 43.1 - Capital transfers 86.2 -85.3 0.9 32.6 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 28.6 -23.3 5.3 10.5 - Financial account 4,373.0 -5,225.4 -852.4 -1,206.8 - Direct investment 344.0 -48.8 295.2 -795.3 - Portfolio investment 3,994.6 26.9 4,021.5 -11.9 - Financial derivates -10.9 14.4 3.5 -2.4 - Other investment 45.3 -5,067.3 -5,022.1 -480.7 - Assets 43.3 -3,227.5 -3,184.2 -1,456.2 - Liabilities 2.0 -1,839.8 -1,837.8 975.5 - Reserve assets 0.0 -150.7 -150.7 83.6 Net errors and omissions 136.0 0.0 136.0 393.9 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. transactions amounted to EUR 276.8 m; in the first four months of the year EUR 701.8 m. Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow in April (EUR 922.9 m), which was attributable to higher liabilities of the government to foreign portfolio investors. Other investment also registered a net outflow (EUR 1.442.7 mj in April. The majority of transactions were carried out through the Bank of Slovenia, which increased deposits abroad.23 Short-term trade crediting improved, which is related to growing exports of goods and services. Bank deleveraging abroad also continued, by the repayment of loans and the withdrawal of nonresidents' deposits from Slovenian banks. Direct investment posted a net inflow of EUR 231.1 m. Net liabilities of Slovenian subsidiaries to parent companies abroad increased in particular (intra-company crediting). Equity capital of foreign investors was also higher. Financial markets Deleveraging of non-banking sectors is easing gradually, in line with expectations, while banks continue to deleverage abroad. Interest rates for businesses remain high, the share of non-performing claims rose again. Debt repayments of domestic non-banking sectors totalled around EUR 145 m in May. Approximately 85% of the decline was accounted for by increased deleveraging of the corporate and NFI sector. Household and government loans also decreased. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors thus dropped by around EUR 480 m in the first five months of the year24 (in the same period last year, by approximately EUR 850 m). In our estimation this has to do with a slight improvement in access to sources of debt financing for credit-worthy customers, though the borrowing terms remain fairly tight also for these customers. Banks continued to make debt repayments abroad. They were also reducing liabilities to the Eurosystem. Household deposits continue to rise. Government deposits also rose, which is related to the new borrowing. Figure 32: Increase in household, corporate and NFI and government loans Households Corporate and NFI^ ^MGovernment -Total Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 23 The TARGET account has been positive since February. With the issue of government securities, the claims of the Bank of Slovenia within the Eurosystem increased. 24 In the loan movements in the first four or five months, the change in loan volume as at 30 April or 31 May 2014 relative 31 December 2013 is shown. The volume of household loans is decreasing more slowly this year. The decline in May (EUR 14.1 m) was somewhat smaller than this year's monthly average. The figures show a gradual increase in bank lending activity to households for housing purposes, but this remains relatively low, given that the volume of housing loans rose by EUR 6.5 m in May. Households continue to make net repayments of consumer loans and loans for other purposes. The volume of loans to households fell by more than EUR 80 m in the first five months of this year (as a result of, to the same extent, the repayments of euro and foreign currency loans), compared with EUR 160 m in the same period of last year. The relatively strong corporate deleveraging at domestic banks continues, but it is less pronounced than last year. I n May corporate and NFI loans declined by EUR 124.3 m, which is approximately the same amount as in the previous two months together. Corporate deleveraging prevailed again, accounting for around 85% of total corporate and NFI deleveraging. In the first five months of 2014, the volume of corporate and NFI loans declined by almost EUR 390 m (in the same period last year, by approximately EUR 620 m). This year, enterprises and NFIs also make debt repayments abroad. Net repayments of foreign loans amounted to EUR 5.7 m in April, being solely the result of net repayments of short-term loans, while net repayments of long-term loans recorded a modest net inflow (EUR 7.8 m) for the first time this year. In the first four months, corporate net repayments abroad totalled almost EUR 130 m. The gaps between domestic and foreign lending interest rates25 are still significant, even four months after the beginning of banking system stabilisation. In April they widened again, being, almost at 240 basis points, Figure 33: Net flows of corporate and NFI foreign loans and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^ Short-term loans (left axis) ^■Long-term loans (left axis) -Gaps betwen domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 550 Figure 34: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of Slovenian banks 2,000 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 500 450 400 350 1= 300 250 Ü cz 200 150 100 50 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 1,500 1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total -1,000 -1,500 o ^ ^ f^ —^ rü —^ tü —^ —^ tü —^ tü Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. among the highest in the euro area. They are higher only in Greece, Cyprus and Portugal. Banks continue to deleverage abroad. Their net repayments of foreign liabilities totalled EUR 150 m in April. Net repayments were recorded by loans, deposits and bonds. In the first four months of this year, banks repaid a total of EUR 530 m net in foreign liabilities. Liabilities to foreign banks thus declined to EUR 5.2 bn at the end of April and accounted for only 11.3% of banks' total assets (last year in the same month 15.8%). Both household and government deposits increased this year. Household deposits at banks were around EUR Figure 35: Creation of impairments and provisions and the share of arrears of more than 90 days in the Slovenian banking system Impairments and provisions -Proportion of arrears of more than 90 days (right axis) 500 450 400 350 300 ^^ 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 25 Interest rates on loans over EUR 1 m, with a variable, or up to one year, with a fixed interest rate. 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 500 0 -500 -400 0 Table 11: Financial market indicator Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 13 31. V 14 31. V 14/30. IV 14 31. V 14/31. XII 13 31. V 14/31. V 13 Loans total 26,176.0 25,694.3 -0.6 -1.8 -16.1 Enterprises and NFI 15,594.8 15,207.6 -0.8 -2.5 -23.3 Government 1,664.0 1,651.2 -0.4 -0.8 -1.5 Households 8,917.3 8,835.4 -0.2 -0.9 -3.0 Consumer credits 2,213.4 2,185.4 -0.6 -1.3 -8.7 Lending for house purchase 5,306.5 5,300.3 0.1 -0.1 1.3 Other lending 1,397.3 1,349.8 -0.5 -3.4 -8.9 Bank deposits total 14,588.1 14,909.9 0.4 2.2 1.3 Overnight deposits 6,446.6 6,756.1 1.7 4.8 4.6 Short-term deposits 3,681.9 3,562.9 -1.8 -3.2 -6.2 Long-term deposits 4,456.1 4,586.4 0.3 2.9 2.9 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.5 4.5 17.8 27.5 -35.0 Mutual funds 1,854.6 1,979.6 4.8 6.7 7.4 Government bank deposits, total 1,284.1 1,820.0 -6.1 41.7 -51.1 Overnight deposits 22.9 339.1 -21.0 1,381.5 41.9 Short-term deposits 512.8 1,042.6 -3.3 103.3 -34.5 Long-term deposits 738.5 399.3 -0.9 -45.9 -78.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.8 39.1 36.3 297.5 142.9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. 65 m higher in May. Overnight deposits increased most notably (EUR 115.1 m), also due to the transfer of short-term deposits. According to our estimate, this is also a result of lower and lower interest rates for short-term deposits, which are lower than in the euro area. Long-term deposits continue to increase gradually. Interest rates on this type of deposits are otherwise also rapidly falling, but are above the euro area average. The volume of household deposits at banks thus rose by more than EUR 320 m in the first five months of the year (in the same period last year, it declined by EUR 330 m). Government Figure 36: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond - Slovenia -Italy - Portugal Ireland -Spain ---- France (U .'■ž < s ^^ ^^ ä ■t ^^ ^^^ ^ a ^ deposits fell almost by EUR 120 m in May, around three quarters of the decline being a result of a smaller volume of overnight deposits. Short-term deposits also declined, and, to a lower extent, long-term deposits. As result of the borrowing of the government, which placed a portion of these funds to domestic banks, government deposits rose by around EUR 535 m in the first five months of this year. The share of arrears over 90 days keeps increasing, while the creation of impairments and provisions has slowed. It amounted to EUR 21.6 m in April, and EUR 110 m in the first four months as a whole, which is almost 40% less than in the comparable period last year. The share of non-performing claims rose to 14.8%. The yield to maturity of the Slovenian 10-year euro bond and the spread against the German bond declined further in June. The yield averaged 3.07%, 36 basis points less than in May, while the spread vis-a-vis the German bond was 185 basis points (28 basis points lower than a month earlier). As the yields are also falling in other euro area countries, we estimate that this is a result of the ECB policy measures. The yield was thus the lowest historically since the government first issued these bonds. Public finance The general government deficit26 in the first four months was smaller than one year earlier (EUR 707 m compared with EUR 983 m) due to higher revenue and lower growth in Source: Bloomberg. 6 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. 7 6 5 2 Table 12: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-IV 2014 IV 2014/IV 2013 I-IV 2014/I-IV2013 I-IV 2013 I-IV 2014 General government revenue - total 4,918.8 8.3 6.8 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 166.1 160.1 3,059.2 -0.1 2.8 Personal income tax 672.7 2.2 3.0 14.2 13.6 Value added tax 998.9 -8.7 6.1 20.4 19.5 Excise duties 429.0 -31.4 -6.5 10.0 8.8 Social security contributions 1739.7 0.8 2.5 36.8 35.9 Other general government revenues 912.5 0.7 5.9 18.7 19.3 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 13: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2013 2014 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-IV 14 v mio EUR I-IV 14/I-IV 13 Revenue - total 14,725.1 41.7 -1.8 4,918.8 6.8 - Tax revenues 12,647.9 35.9 -3.6 4,263.3 6.8 - Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 6.1 -19.5 836.8 29.1 - Social security contributions 5,127.2 14.5 -2.2 1,739.7 2.5 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 5,027.3 14.3 3.1 1,615.8 3.6 - Receipts from the EU budget 938.2 2.7 11.0 306.5 7.4 Expenditure - total 16,282.7 46.2 1.0 5,625.6 0.6 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,617.0 10.3 -3.0 1,208.3 0.4 - Purchases of goods and services 2,237.4 6.3 -5.7 713.6 -5.7 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 840.1 2.4 29.7 594.7 8.7 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,343.0 18.0 -0.6 2,093.3 -0.9 - Capital expenditure 1,030.8 2.9 12.7 263.1 46.4 - Capital transfers 319.0 0.9 -0.3 46.3 -21.0 - Payment to the EU budget 425.5 1.2 9.0 195.5 0.2 Deficit -1,557.6 -4.4 38.3 -706.8 -28.1 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. expenditure. This was the result ofhigher growth in revenue (6.8%) than expenditure (0.6%). All main categories of revenue increased, while among expenditure categories, interest payments and expenditure on investment increased the most. Simultaneous positive growth in all main categories of general government revenue was observed for the first time in two years. The largest contribution to positive revenue performance came from revenue from taxes without contributions (9.9%, year-on-year), followed by social security contributions (2.5%), non-tax revenue (10.6%) and EU funds (7.4%). Tax revenue in all main categories improved in the first four months compared with the same period one year earlier. The exception was excise duties that fell by 6.5% notwithstanding the increase in excise duties on diesel and fuel oil that took place in the second half of March in 2014. The largest contributor to the increase in tax revenue was from corporate income tax (up by EUR 172 m). VAT revenue also increased (by EUR 57 m or 6.1%, year-on-year). The VAT revenue improvement reflects the effect of VAT Figure 37: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure -General government revenue, total -General government expenditure, total 3 m 14.5 rates increases that took place in June 2013 but also improvement in economic conditions. Revenue from personal income tax also increased (3%, year-on-year), mainly due to higher social security contributions. On the expenditure side, interest payments and expenditure on investment increased the most, while expenditure on goods and services decreased. The increase in total expenditure (by EUR 36.1 m or 0.6%, year-on-year) was mainly due to expenditure on investment (EUR 83.4 m or 46.4%, year-on-year) and interest payments (EUR 47.7 m or 8.7%, year-on-year). Total expenditure without considering interest payments (i.e. primary expenditure) was somewhat smaller (by EUR 11.6 m or 0.2%) than in the same period of last year. The largest year-on-year decline was recorded by expenditure on goods and services (EUR 43.0 m or 5.7%), reserves (EUR 34.2 m or 53.8%) and transfers to individuals and households (EUR 17.9 m or 0.9%). The most important reductions in social transfers concerned unemployment benefits, family benefits, sickness benefits and scholarships27. In this category, only expenditure on pensions (EUR 11.8 m or 0.9%) and, for the first time since the last quarter of 2011, social security transfers (EUR 6.4 m or 6.1%), increased year-on-year. The increase in pension expenditure in the first four months was smaller than in the same period last year, as the number of pensioners rose more slowly. Expenditures that increased year-on-year include, besides investment expenditure, subsidies (EUR 13.8 m or 6.2%), compensation of employees (EUR 5.4 m or 0.4%) and other current domestic transfers (EUR 3.8 m or 2.1%). Wage growth was related to the wage settlement based on the Supreme Court decision, according to which public sector employees had to be paid half of the third quarter of funds earmarked to eliminate disparities in basic wages. Figure 38: Receipts from the EU budget in 2013 and 2014 ■ Total receipts in 2014 (January-May) ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-December) Common Agricultural Policy 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Figure 39: Planned and absorbed EU funds, 2013 and 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2013 Other Common Agricultural Policy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 In % Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. In the first five months Slovenia received less than a third of funds from the EU budget envisaged for this year. In May it received EUR 53.6 m from and paid EUR 33.1 m into the EU budget. The bulk of receipts came from the Structural Funds (EUR 31.1 m), while the receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies and the receipts from the Cohesion Fund totalled EUR 16.2 m and EUR 4.0 m, respectively. In the first five months as a whole Slovenia received EUR 358.6 m from the EU budget, 29.9% of the level envisaged in the budget for 2014, and paid EUR 228.6 m into the EU budget, 57.6% of the total amount planned. In the first five months of this year Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the amount of EUR 130.0 m (EUR 122.9 m in the same period of last year). Almost half (51.8%) of all receipts were funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, which recorded the highest absorption compared with the plan (67.4 %). A total of 31.5% of all received funds came from the Structural Funds (22.2% realisation with regard to the budget for 2014), while receipts from the Cohesion Fund accounted for 15.3% (14.0% realisation), partly as the European Commission suspended the payments under the Cohesion Policy in March. 27 Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or from reserves. 0 X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spring forecast 2014 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -7.9 1.3 0.7 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 35,420 35,485 36,150 35,319 35,275 35,634 36,255 37,219 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,349 17,320 17,610 17,172 17,128 17,270 17,551 18,001 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,200 20,600 21,200 21,400 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 86 84 84 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,823 35,028 35,759 34,931 35,069 34,916 35,353 36,253 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,519 34,875 35,680 34,721 34,796 35,004 35,396 36,149 Rate of registered unemployment 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.6 13.5 13.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) -6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 Inflation,2 year average 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 1.1 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -16.1 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 Exports of goods -16.6 12.0 8.2 -0.1 2.9 4.6 5.2 5.5 Exports of services -14.0 3.5 1.9 3.7 2.6 2.6 3.3 4.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -19.2 7.4 5.6 -4.7 1.3 3.5 5.2 5.3 Imports of goods -20.2 8.3 6.6 -5.1 1.5 3.6 5.5 5.6 Imports of services -12.4 2.6 -0.6 -2.2 -0.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -173 -50 146 1,159 2,279 2,442 2,338 2,328 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.5 -0.1 0.4 3.3 6.5 6.9 6.4 6.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 40,318 40,723 40,100 40,849 39,566 43.373* As a per cent share relative to GDP 113.8 114.8 110.9 115.7 112.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.365 1.366 1.366 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.1 1.5 0.8 -4.8 -2.7 -0.4 0.7 1.8 As a % of GDP4 54.8 56.4 56.8 56.3 56.0 55.2 55.1 55.3 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.5 1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.2 19.9 19.5 19.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -23.8 -15.3 -5.5 -8.2 0.2 -0.5 1.0 0.0 As a % of GDP4 23.1 19.7 18.6 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.8 17.7 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2014). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. 2Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End April 2014. PRODUCTION 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 2.4 -3.9 -2.6 3.6 3.1 B Mining and quarrying -7.9 -7.4 1.3 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 6.7 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -2.8 9.8 -7.0 -5.7 1.4 C Manufacturing 1.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.9 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 2.8 -5.5 -4.9 1.8 1.6 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 5.0 10.5 3.9 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.9 3.2 3.1 0.1 9.4 24.0 22.6 16.2 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -24.8 -16.8 -2.6 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.4 36.2 -23.8 -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 Buildings -39.7 -17.3 -20.4 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 5.9 -15.6 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 Civil engineering -15.3 -16.6 6.2 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 1.7 26.6 52.0 -26.5 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 3.2 -3.4 0.1 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.9 -1.8 3.9 1.8 Tonne-km in rail transport 9.7 -7.5 9.5 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 13.4 24.9 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.3 -3.6 -1.0 0.6 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.5 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.7 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 2.5 -2.7 -2.7 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.8 -0.7 -3.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.8 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 7.0 -6.3 4.7 -2.8 -7.2 -10.1 -5.3 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.6 8.6 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.0 0.8 -0.2 3.8 -0.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.7 6.1 0.4 -2.2 7.2 2.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 5.3 1.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 0.5 -4.9 -3.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 9.1 5.6 2.8 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 -0.6 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 3.7 -1.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.0 0.5 2.9 3.1 2.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.9 480.4 478.4 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 113.6 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -7 -17 -13 -12 -16 -19 -20 -15 -14 -13 -12 -8 -15 -18 -18 -19 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 -11 -5 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -5 -4 -3 -1 -10 -13 -12 -15 - in construction -46 -41 -22 -41 -44 -40 -39 -30 -22 -18 -18 -14 -45 -44 -41 -38 - in services 1 -12 -12 -8 -8 -14 -17 -12 -12 -11 -11 -4 -7 -10 -11 -14 - in retail trade 8 2 1 5 4 1 -4 -3 1 6 1 5 -2 4 -2 -2 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -35 -33 -27 -36 -39 -36 -29 -34 -34 -34 -29 -33 -37 -36 -36 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2012 2013 2014 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 -0.1 -0.7 -6.5 2.8 -2.5 -5.1 1.2 -5.7 0.8 -1.6 -0.4 8.0 1.5 0.2 5.3 3.6 - -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -11.6 9.9 23.2 -4.0 -11.0 -13.7 2.4 -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 6.0 74.1 31.1 -0.3 -30.9 72.8 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 -1.3 -0.9 -8.7 2.5 -2.7 -5.5 1.1 -6.7 0.6 -2.2 -0.4 7.7 1.9 0.4 5.9 1.6 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -0.9 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 5.5 -4.8 -0.9 6.4 12.6 - -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -5.3 -5.9 28.2 31.4 5.6 33.0 28.5 44.4 48.8 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 3.1 0.7 6.4 3.4 7.6 7.1 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.2 -5.5 31.8 41.5 4.8 46.7 41.6 63.2 69.0 - - - - - - - - - - -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 -4.9 -8.6 -7.7 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.3 -3.4 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.7 2.3 1.9 3.2 2.6 - -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.6 -3.9 -1.0 -1.4 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 3.4 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.4 16.3 8.8 6.8 10.1 1.4 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.3 1.8 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.0 6.3 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 7.8 - -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 -3.6 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 15.5 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.6 1.3 4.0 0.7 4.1 1.5 2.4 5.3 3.7 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 42.6 - - -21 -22 -20 -17 -16 -15 -13 -14 -15 -14 -14 -12 -12 -13 -11 -12 -9 -9 -6 -5 0 -1 -16 -15 -14 -10 -11 -8 -8 -8 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -2 -2 -3 0 1 1 3 6 -41 -42 -40 -35 -30 -30 -31 -25 -22 -20 -22 -16 -16 -17 -17 -19 -16 -17 -9 -15 -3 -7 -16 -19 -19 -14 -12 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -13 -13 -10 -11 -5 -6 -2 4 10 7 8 -7 -5 0 2 -9 -2 -5 -8 16 16 0 3 13 -6 -3 9 2 3 3 17 2 -45 -38 -37 -34 -30 -31 -26 -27 -38 -38 -38 -33 -31 -35 -35 -33 -30 -30 -27 -29 -25 -23 LABOUR MARKET 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.7 920.2 913.4 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 912.9 923.7 921.3 917.4 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 824.0 810.0 793.6 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 784.2 816.9 815.7 810.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.8 37.0 38.2 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 In industry, construction 272.9 263.1 252.2 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 249.0 266.6 265.7 264.0 Of which: in manufacturing 184.8 182.9 177.7 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 177.3 184.2 183.8 182.9 in construction 67.8 59.8 54.3 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 51.5 61.8 61.4 60.5 In services 512.3 510.0 503.2 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 503.5 512.5 512.1 509.3 Of which: in public administration 51.4 50.7 49.1 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 51.2 51.2 50.8 in education, health-services, social work 118.8 120.9 121.0 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 729.1 717.0 698.7 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 723.1 722.1 717.7 In enterprises and organisations 671.8 662.6 647.6 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 645.2 667.7 666.7 662.8 By those self-employed 57.2 54.5 51.1 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 55.4 55.3 55.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 93.0 94.9 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 90.4 93.8 93.6 92.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.7 110.2 119.8 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 128.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 Female 52.1 52.2 57.4 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 61.2 50.9 50.5 51.2 By age: under 26 12.9 11.9 13.8 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 12.3 15.6 16.1 10.7 10.3 10.2 aged over 50 39.0 38.2 38.9 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 38.1 37.7 37.9 Osnovnošolska izobrazba ali manj 34.1 33.3 34.2 35.2 32.9 31.8 33.2 36.5 34.1 32.6 33.6 36.4 32.8 32.3 32.1 For more than 1 year 50.2 55.2 55.4 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 57.7 60.7 55.0 54.7 54.6 Those receiving benefits 36.3 33.9 33.0 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 32.7 33.4 31.9 32.1 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.8 12.0 13.1 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 14.1 11.6 11.5 11.7 Male 11.4 11.5 12.5 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.5 11.0 10.9 11.0 Female 12.4 12.6 13.8 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 12.2 12.2 12.4 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 2.7 5.3 6.0 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.4 16.3 19.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 4.2 0.6 0.6 0.8 Redundancies 82.2 90.3 88.7 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 5.8 5.6 8.0 Registered unemployed who found employment 61.0 58.3 65.1 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 20.7 4.7 3.9 4.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.8 43.1 37.3 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 6.8 4.1 3.5 3.5 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.6 33.9 30.5 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.3 34.4 34.1 33.8 As % of labour force 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2012 2013 2014 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 914.4 920.2 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 787.7 796.6 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 32.0 36.8 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 250.0 252.0 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 177.5 178.1 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.6 53.9 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 505.7 507.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 122.1 122.3 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 696.9 700.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 647.8 651.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 49.1 49.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 90.7 95.8 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 126.7 123.6 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.3 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.3 15.8 4.4 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.4 31.7 31.5 32.2 32.5 35.0 36.7 36.8 35.9 35.1 34.0 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.3 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 34.7 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 56.6 57.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 60.5 60.7 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 31.3 27.4 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 8.5 7.3 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 3.0 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 2.0 0.1 -0.2 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 -1.1 0.9 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 B Mining and quarrying 3.8 3.7 -2.0 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 14.9 13.2 1.4 C Manufacturing 3.9 2.5 2.8 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 3.9 1.0 4.3 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.3 3.3 3.0 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities -0.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 -0.2 0.7 -2.5 4.0 F Constrution 2.0 -2.5 -1.4 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.8 0.8 0.4 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.7 H Transportation and storage 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.9 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 I Accommodation and food service activities 2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 J Information and communication 0.9 -0.4 -1.5 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 -0.1 0.8 K Financial and insurance activities 0.6 1.1 0.2 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 L Real estate activities 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4 -1.1 -2.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 N Administrative and support service activities 3.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 3.3 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 0.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 P Education 0.2 -3.3 -3.3 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 Q Human health and social work activities -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation -0.7 -2.8 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 S Other service activities 0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -0.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 Real (deflator HICP) -1.0 -1.1 1.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 Real (deflator ULC) -2.2 -3.0 -1.6 -2.0 -3.3 -3.7 -2.8 -2.2 -1.3 -1.0 -2.0 USD/EUR 1.3917 1.2856 1.3282 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3602 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 2014 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 0.9 2.1 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 -0.9 7.2 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 1.1 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -6.9 3.6 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -1.1 2.8 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -0.2 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 -0.7 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1 -1.7 -2.1 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 1.361 1.3659 1.3823 1.3813 PRICES 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 8 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5.7 6.5 7.0 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 Clothing and footwear -1.5 -0.2 0.2 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.6 3.8 3.1 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 Furnishings, household equipment 2.7 0.1 -1.2 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.6 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 Transport 1.0 3.3 0.3 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 Communications 1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 Recreation and culture -1.5 1.4 0.1 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 Education 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 Catering services -6.8 4.5 6.5 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 HCPI 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.5 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 Domestic market 3.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 Non-domestic market 5.3 0.7 -0.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 euro area 6.1 0.1 -0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 non-euro area 3.6 2.0 0.3 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 Import price indices 5.4 1.9 -0.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 10.9 12.7 0.2 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 Oil products 11.9 13.0 1.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 Transport & communications 1.1 1.6 11.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other controlled prices 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 Direct control - total 2.8 9.2 1.2 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2012 2013 2014 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.9 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 -2.9 0.9 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.8 15.8 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 6.4 6.4 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.6 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 Q^ Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 146 1,159 2,224 23 241 288 474 499 607 499 497 454 81 18 143 49 Goods1 -957 -110 632 -210 -45 60 24 129 242 252 23 342 7 -31 -21 48 Exports 21,450 21,631 22,105 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,367 5,635 5,433 5,590 5,704 1,807 1,862 1,891 1,829 Imports 22,407 21,741 21,473 5,575 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,239 5,393 5,181 5,567 5,362 1,800 1,892 1,912 1,781 Services 1,476 1,803 2,004 405 420 493 402 496 527 551 387 399 139 149 132 136 Exports 4,842 5,166 5,422 1,105 1,210 1,467 1,299 1,202 1,310 1,535 1,320 1,175 382 402 426 502 Imports 3,365 3,363 3,418 700 789 974 897 706 783 984 933 776 243 253 294 366 Income -524 -552 -435 -143 -165 -195 -37 -56 -192 -234 -83 -204 -43 -98 -24 -109 Receipts 936 699 857 131 188 173 206 124 110 130 139 166 53 63 72 54 Expenditure 1,460 1,251 1,292 273 354 368 243 180 302 364 221 370 96 160 97 163 Current transfers 151 18 23 -29 30 -70 85 -70 30 -70 170 -83 -23 -3 56 -26 Receipts 1,404 1,410 1,452 348 366 284 411 335 359 296 472 325 97 113 156 111 Expenditure 1,253 1,392 1,429 377 335 355 326 405 328 366 302 409 120 116 100 137 Capital and financial account -474 -1,206 -2,979 109 -211 -468 -421 -868 -695 -696 -562 -583 -154 -150 94 -30 Capital account -85 -92 -37 9 44 4 -16 31 -4 5 76 0 35 16 -7 20 Financial account -389 -1,114 -2,942 99 -255 -472 -404 -900 -691 -702 -639 -582 -190 -166 101 -50 Direct investment 633 166 -555 144 91 84 -152 -101 -649 68 83 64 -93 140 44 87 Domestic abroad -85 212 -44 43 124 43 16 -25 118 62 32 -9 -6 50 79 15 Foreign in Slovenia 718 -46 -511 101 -33 41 -168 -76 -767 6 51 73 -87 90 -36 73 Portfolio investment 1,839 -218 3,981 -923 120 -982 1,564 130 2,100 -425 2,176 3,099 73 133 -86 -644 Financial derivatives -155 -203 -453 -23 -21 -31 -15 -20 13 -10 -15 -8 -6 -7 -7 -9 Other investment -2,777 -890 -5,910 862 -439 478 -1,820 -976 -2,136 -252 -2,912 -3,579 -163 -430 154 556 Assets -1,490 -1,474 -1,907 -1,456 -78 237 -217 -1,225 -845 66 -258 -1,888 -376 124 174 131 Commercial credits -49 65 -35 -347 -38 108 340 -364 -51 90 308 -238 23 -33 -27 15 Loans -55 -319 -20 3 -95 84 -304 23 -176 88 45 75 -153 -28 86 40 Currency and deposits -1,341 -1,177 -1,699 -1,122 31 0 -127 -867 -545 -120 -536 -1,673 -250 170 111 46 Other assets -46 -45 -153 10 24 45 -126 -17 -73 7 -76 -52 4 15 5 30 Liabilities -1,287 584 -4,003 2,318 -361 241 -1,603 249 -1,290 -317 -2,654 -1,691 213 -554 -20 424 Commercial credits 107 265 -146 162 138 -94 62 -300 93 -200 247 -174 -15 -71 224 -6 Loans -1,234 -729 441 -121 -227 -173 -202 373 599 -532 -31 -357 103 -214 -117 -79 Deposits -169 1,026 -4,246 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 -1,176 115 -278 -126 527 Other liabilities 9 23 -52 -11 17 -22 40 -12 -2 -15 12 16 10 9 -2 -17 International reserves2 72 31 -5 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -83 30 -157 0 -2 -4 -41 Statistical error 328 47 756 -132 -30 180 -53 369 88 197 66 128 74 133 -237 -19 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,042 2,112 2,136 477 569 514 552 521 533 531 579 555 183 189 196 172 Intermediate goods 12,008 12,138 12,522 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,051 3,159 3,115 3,100 3,263 1,009 1,049 1,042 1,052 Consumer goods 6,950 6,811 6,970 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,673 1,824 1,672 1,791 1,773 559 572 603 554 Import of investment goods 2,505 2,402 2,558 562 584 570 687 646 667 564 696 608 186 201 197 217 Intermediate goods 14,107 14,005 13,690 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,457 3,448 3,282 3,448 3,316 1,177 1,209 1,192 1,175 Consumer goods 5,943 5,671 5,949 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,392 1,485 1,475 1,554 1,513 449 475 475 442 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2012 2013 2014 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 49 189 192 227 55 81 102 316 271 114 222 150 152 197 187 95 214 94 19 341 256 -72 84 43 98 -117 -53 58 123 132 -21 131 154 9 89 59 -4 -33 90 63 189 143 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,710 1,731 1,926 1,956 1,839 1,840 1,964 1,545 1,924 2,023 1,905 1,662 1,849 1,823 2,031 1,999 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,763 1,673 1,803 1,824 1,861 1,708 1,810 1,536 1,835 1,964 1,908 1,695 1,759 1,760 1,842 1,857 176 180 179 142 82 166 120 210 167 181 178 195 198 158 151 125 112 114 107 179 160 500 466 463 412 424 388 352 461 426 434 450 526 530 479 453 408 459 383 347 445 442 323 285 285 270 342 222 232 251 259 252 272 331 332 322 302 283 348 269 240 266 282 -31 -55 -7 -14 -16 -4 -3 -48 -51 -60 -81 -157 -36 -41 -24 -19 -39 -62 -73 -69 -77 55 64 58 59 90 39 39 46 35 35 39 46 45 39 39 44 56 55 52 59 52 86 119 65 72 106 43 42 94 86 95 120 203 80 81 63 63 95 117 125 127 129 -24 -21 -22 1 106 -28 -73 31 23 14 -7 -43 -19 -8 2 -7 175 -48 -78 42 30 85 88 90 108 212 86 96 153 140 116 103 101 92 102 103 89 280 78 87 160 159 109 109 113 108 105 114 169 122 116 102 110 145 111 110 101 95 106 126 165 118 129 -221 -217 -334 -312 225 -412 -99 -357 -295 -132 -267 -109 -290 -297 -446 -117 1 -92 51 -541 -264 1 -18 -2 -29 14 12 7 12 12 -14 -1 16 0 -11 22 9 45 1 0 -2 6 -223 -199 -332 -283 211 -424 -106 -369 -307 -118 -266 -125 -290 -287 -468 -126 -45 -93 51 -539 -270 -29 26 -46 32 -138 22 -1 -122 -695 0 45 151 -22 -61 232 -100 -49 28 83 -47 231 44 -15 -5 42 -21 21 22 -68 20 50 47 19 14 29 50 9 -27 -25 11 5 -40 -73 41 -40 -10 -117 2 -24 -54 -715 -50 -2 132 -36 -90 182 -109 -22 53 72 -52 271 -152 -187 1,674 -55 -56 -155 16 270 -142 2,589 -346 -130 -90 -204 -24 1,828 372 410 2,740 -52 923 -3 -19 -7 -2 -6 -15 -2 -4 18 -14 9 -6 -2 -2 -5 -1 -9 -2 0 -6 12 -35 -43 -1,980 -270 429 -298 -130 -547 495 -2,719 88 -58 -179 -15 -671 -1,847 -394 -467 -2,656 -456 -1,443 159 -54 -290 -443 516 -350 -302 -573 -231 -448 -166 -73 166 -27 -501 -137 379 -473 -1,222 -194 -1,296 158 -65 -28 38 330 -61 -85 -217 -25 55 -80 -2 182 -89 -53 20 341 -51 -102 -86 -106 51 -8 17 -49 -272 2 8 13 -67 -68 -42 9 75 3 -33 -15 94 -12 28 59 -32 -66 20 -128 -428 429 -286 -225 -356 -70 -441 -34 -79 -99 58 -346 -94 -97 -368 -1,182 -124 -1,118 15 0 -151 -4 29 -5 1 -13 -69 6 -10 -1 8 0 -68 -48 41 -43 34 -43 -40 -194 11 -1,689 173 -86 52 171 26 727 -2,271 254 15 -345 12 -170 -1,710 -774 6 -1,434 -262 -147 -144 57 5 21 35 -235 86 -152 -5 35 64 -127 -137 64 80 136 31 -282 93 15 -70 -63 -30 13 -190 -25 31 -152 495 674 -18 -57 -375 42 -199 6 -8 -29 20 -219 -158 0 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 224 -1,296 -104 -63 1 -6 18 -17 39 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -8 3 5 5 44 -12 -16 -14 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -4 1 -6 35 -62 -116 21 7 172 28 141 86 -280 331 -3 41 25 18 45 -40 138 100 258 22 -215 -1 -70 200 8 164 179 193 191 168 157 160 203 182 178 173 204 149 178 197 197 185 168 181 205 N/A 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 998 980 1,073 1,102 1,045 1,012 1,115 912 1,088 1,163 1,069 869 1,086 1,036 1,141 N/A 460 590 610 628 550 508 555 611 632 577 614 604 449 619 623 599 569 559 569 646 N/A 163 190 219 209 259 197 195 254 219 260 189 204 155 205 221 241 234 184 202 222 N/A 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,218 1,104 1,136 1,195 1,196 1,057 1,165 987 1,130 1,237 1,208 1,003 1,120 1,062 1,134 N/A 447 461 530 508 448 444 465 482 491 489 505 509 438 528 549 516 490 473 516 524 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2011 2012 2013 2012 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 102 221 233 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 207 226 224 Central government (S. 1311) 4,299 5,057 6,563 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,805 4,874 5,138 5,144 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 584 610 581 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 585 583 580 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,454 9,267 8,917 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 20,876 19,470 14,902 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,488 20,398 20,294 20,044 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,229 2,135 1,763 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,445 5,194 5,020 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,237 5,210 4,930 5,012 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,692 34,558 29,620 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,422 35,316 35,131 34,943 In foreign currency 1,536 1,309 1,097 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 Securities, total 5,659 5,862 7,026 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 28,420 29,582 27,051 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 29,460 30,062 Overnight 8,245 8,678 8,558 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,633 8,523 8,651 8,763 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,868 7,056 6,689 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 With agreed maturity -long-term 12,248 13,780 11,569 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,851 13,751 13,755 13,763 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 59 68 235 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 116 74 119 Deposits in foreign currency, total 579 552 487 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 579 571 576 Overnight 386 372 324 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 397 388 399 With agreed maturity -short-term 133 123 91 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 124 126 119 With agreed maturity -long-term 59 56 72 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 57 56 57 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.15 2.31 1.86 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.46 5.48 5.40 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.69 5.32 3.86 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.39 0.57 0.22 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 6-month rates 1.64 0.83 0.34 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 6-month rates 0.18 0.15 - 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 2014 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 245 209 227 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,448 6,437 6,476 6,154 6,262 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 584 582 577 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 8,853 8,850 8,835 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,902 14,691 14,599 14,543 14,531 14,429 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,763 1,993 1,968 1,962 1,945 1,929 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 4,818 5,012 4,863 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 29,154 29,298 29,017 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 1,046 1,036 1,025 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,026 6,921 6,944 7,028 6,731 6,845 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 27,034 27,187 27067 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 8,979 9,278 9390 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 6,893 7,215 7088 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 10,852 10,389 10252 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 310 305 337 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 490 496 496 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 333 335 336 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 90 94 92 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 67 67 68 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 - 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 1.15 1.07 - 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 5.26 5.58 - 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 •• 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.96 4.21 6.63 - 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.33 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.42 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0,02 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 - - - - - - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2014 2012 QO Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 9 1 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,982.3 14,999.1 14,728.2 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,633.0 1,153.5 1,300.4 Current revenues 14,037.9 14,030.6 13,637.4 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,408.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 Tax revenues 13,209.2 13,118.3 12,648.4 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 1,003.9 1,188.8 Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 2,656.6 2,137.4 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 209.0 215.7 Social security contributions 5,267.6 5,244.1 5,127.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 428.2 430.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 25.6 23.4 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 4.8 1.9 2.0 Taxes on property 215.2 233.9 254.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.8 19.2 26.6 20.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,856.2 4,876.1 5,027.4 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 333.2 512.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 100.2 82.5 77.5 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 19.1 6.3 7.6 Other taxes 17.2 -0.6 1.3 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -1.4 1.0 Non-tax revenues 828.7 912.3 989.0 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.8 185.7 322.8 242.7 261.9 53.6 67.6 Capital revenues 65.3 62.5 67.1 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 11.6 4.1 3.6 Grants 10.4 9.2 32.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.3 Transferred revenues 53.8 51.7 52.7 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 50.9 0.9 1.4 49.8 0.5 Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 845.1 938.4 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.7 209.9 41.6 39.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,546.3 16,125.7 16,286.4 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.3 1,248.1 1,332.7 Current expenditures 6,926.7 6,813.5 6,838.4 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.5 516.2 563.7 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,882.7 3,727.7 3,616.7 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.4 920.5 282.5 294.3 Expenditures on goods and services 2,443.4 2,373.0 2,238.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 559.1 565.9 526.7 587.2 530.7 157.0 215.4 Interest payments 526.7 647.9 840.1 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 451.8 72.1 48.5 Reserves 73.9 64.9 142.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 20.8 44.2 20.5 4.6 5.5 Current transfers 7,818.9 7,687.0 7,671.3 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.5 598.8 611.3 Subsidies 496.3 502.7 519.5 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.6 205.5 22.0 27.4 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,533.5 6,384.2 6,343.1 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,562.1 505.1 524.2 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 737.2 741.0 734.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.3 204.5 67.0 56.7 Current transfers abroad 52.0 59.0 74.4 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 12.3 4.7 3.0 Capital expenditures 1,023.5 915.0 1,031.8 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.6 146.3 259.7 484.2 188.0 74.2 86.5 Capital transfers 372.1 319.9 319.5 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 26.3 43.3 Payments to the EU budget 405.1 390.3 425.5 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 162.7 32.6 27.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,564.1 -1,126.6 -1,558.2 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 2014 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,183.0 1,143.6 1,093.2 1,187.0 1,133.7 1,174.3 1,290.1 1,204.9 1,238.2 1,275.2 1,201.0 1,604.1 1,231.4 1,196.5 1,205.2 1,285.8 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.5 1,072.7 981.5 1,107.7 1,060.8 1,124.5 1,225.5 1,159.5 1,125.9 1,210.9 1,144.3 1,293.5 1,198.9 1,139.8 1,070.2 1,185.1 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 1,064.0 1,142.4 1,067.1 1,196.5 1,135.8 994.4 1,016.8 1,116.3 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 191.2 187.8 190.0 229.1 207.0 199.3 189.3 241.3 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 418.9 420.1 427.8 469.7 430.5 445.0 428.5 435.7 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 29.8 19.9 35.7 15.3 6.8 6.6 5.9 11.9 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 421.6 512.7 408.8 485.0 478.9 329.6 362.4 444.9 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.1 5.0 7.2 6.9 6.6 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 -4.5 -5.8 -3.2 -10.2 6.0 5.3 22.2 -25.9 67.0 170.7 54.0 117.5 66.2 61.2 63.9 60.6 164.5 96.4 61.9 68.5 77.2 97.0 63.1 145.4 53.4 68.8 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 20.2 3.8 4.4 3.4 3.0 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 50.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 53.8 59.0 50.2 288.5 27.4 52.1 130.4 96.6 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,460.9 1,348.6 1,327.9 1,452.2 1,260.2 1,299.3 1,373.0 1,179.8 1,293.4 1,332.4 1,367.6 1,591.3 1,439.9 1,474.7 1,375.7 1,335.3 530.6 502.2 664.4 568.6 609.9 727.3 519.2 572.5 503.8 460.8 532.1 532.6 565.1 582.1 624.9 672.0 626.6 622.5 314.8 275.6 327.2 269.0 312.4 294.5 280.7 361.5 295.0 290.5 285.7 285.1 295.5 319.8 299.9 345.5 275.1 287.8 209.5 208.3 197.1 155.4 206.6 197.5 194.0 174.3 198.3 161.0 167.4 173.1 183.1 231.1 176.2 183.8 170.8 182.9 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 72.2 66.8 78.8 2.3 141.9 135.9 173.9 143.0 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.8 7.6 7.7 28.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 8.8 662.3 674.2 683.1 639.8 625.7 637.4 633.4 622.9 731.8 582.5 608.2 617.1 628.6 660.9 697.0 652.5 635.0 590.2 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 27.9 34.4 48.5 56.6 119.7 65.7 20.2 31.9 511.8 513.6 526.3 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.4 526.0 610.4 503.5 512.1 516.7 513.9 523.9 514.9 524.3 522.9 531.2 70.0 90.1 57.9 41.6 58.5 67.2 57.7 60.3 67.1 53.7 64.8 63.2 63.3 78.8 56.5 57.4 90.7 25.1 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6 6.0 5.0 1.3 2.0 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.8 41.4 38.1 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.2 95.5 122.6 125.2 236.4 68.6 59.1 60.4 75.1 41.6 69.4 12.6 11.9 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 25.1 41.5 29.6 84.5 1.7 9.4 20.4 14.8 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 32.5 18.6 19.1 27.3 47.7 81.7 33.3 32.7 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BAMC - Bank Asset Management Company, BLI - Better Life Index, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ - Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, , EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung , IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS - Labour Force Survey, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, LTRO - Long-term refinancing operation, MF - Ministry of Finance, MZIP - Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RČV - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PISA - Programme for International Student Assessment, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - the Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS -Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SMP - Securities Market Programme, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Target - Trans-EuropeanAutomated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer system, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steamand air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror June 2014, No. 6, Vol. XX