2018

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN

BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Andrej Raspor

Darko Lacmanović

Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

ii

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Chinese tourists in Western Balkan: facts and forecast

Authors: Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

Reviewers:

Ljubica Knežević Cvelbar

Dijana Medenica Mitrović

Edit: Andrej Raspor

Proofreading: Marija Vuković Vešović

Book break: Andrej Raspor

Col ection: Scientific monographs

Cover photo: Andrej Raspor

Printed and bound by: Electronic edition

Available on : http://www.andrejraspor.com/perfectus_zalozba

Edition: 1. edition

Place and year of issue: Dolga Poljana, 2018

Published by: Perfectus, Svetovanje in izobraževanje, dr. Andrej Raspor s.p.

Price: 15,00 EUR

Al rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,

mechanical, photocopying, recording except as permitted by Perfectus,

Svetovanje in izobraževanje, dr. Andrej Raspor s.p.

Kataložni zapis o publikaciji (CIP) pripravili v Narodni in univerzitetni knjižnici v

Ljubljani / CIP was prepared by the National and University Library (NUK) in

Ljubljana

COBISS.SI-ID=293780736

ISBN 978-961-94220-7-6 (pdf)

iii

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

iv

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Index of content………………………………………………………………………………. page

1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................... 1

2 WORLD TOURISM ..................................................................... 11

2.1 General information ........................................................................... 11

2.2 Income from tourism ......................................................................... 20

2.3 International tourism expenditure ...................................................... 22

2.4 The most/Least countries overrun by tourists in world ....................... 26

2.5 Long-term trends and predictions...................................................... 28

3 EUROPA ................................................................................... 31

4 CHINA ..................................................................................... 43

4.1 General economic information ........................................................... 43

4.2 Review of Chinese outbound tourism ................................................. 46

4.3 Viza sistem........................................................................................ 54

4.3.1 Visa requirements for Chinese citizens ......................................... 54

4.3.2 Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens ..................................... 55

5 BALKAN REGION ...................................................................... 57

5.1 General data ...................................................................................... 57

5.2 Chinese tourists in overal international tourism flows in selected

countries of Balkan region .......................................................................... 63

5.2.1 Albania ........................................................................................ 63

5.2.2 Bosnia and Herzegovina ............................................................... 65

5.2.3 Croatia......................................................................................... 69

5.2.4 Macedonia ................................................................................... 78

v

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

5.2.5 Montenegro ................................................................................. 81

5.2.6 Kosovo......................................................................................... 84

5.2.7 Serbia .......................................................................................... 85

5.2.8 Slovenia ....................................................................................... 88

6 EMERGENCE AND GROWTH OF CHINESE TOURISTS IN THE REGION

............................................................................................... 93

7 FORECAST ............................................................................. 103

8 CONCLUSION......................................................................... 113

9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY AND FUTURE RESEARCHE

DIRECTIONS................................................................................ 115

REFERENCES................................................................................ 117

AUTHORS ................................................................................... 125

Andrej Raspor .......................................................................................... 125

Darko Lacmanović .................................................................................... 126

Maria Popović........................................................................................... 127

vi

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Index of tables

page

Table 1: Top tourist destinations by international arrivals in period 1950 – 2016

..................................................................................................................... 12

Table 2: Ten most visited tourist destinations countries (in mil ions of tourists)

..................................................................................................................... 13

Table 3: Income from tourism by country (in bil ion USD) ............................... 20

Table 4: Income per arrival by countries (in USD) ........................................... 21

Table 5: Tourists’ consumption by the country of origin (in bil ion USD) ......... 22

Table 6: The countries with the least tourist arrivals per inhabitant in world in

2016............................................................................................................. 27

Table 7: Countries with most tourist arrivals per inhabitant in world in 2016. 28

Table 8: International tourist arrivals in Europe countries in period 2000-2016

(in thousands of tourists) .............................................................................. 31

Table 9: International tourism receipts in Europe in period 2000-2016 (in

mil ion USD) .................................................................................................. 35

Table 10: International tourism expenditure in Europe in period 2000-2015 (in

bil ion USD) ................................................................................................... 39

Table 11: Selected countries of Balkan region by international tourist arrivals

per inhabitant and per km2 in 2016 ............................................................... 60

Table 12: International tourist arrivalsin selected countries of Balkan region (in

mil ions of tourists) ....................................................................................... 61

Table 13: International tourism receipts in selected countries of Balkan region

(in bil ion USD) .............................................................................................. 62

Table 14: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Albania

between 2000 and 2016................................................................................ 64

Table 15: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in B&H

between 2003 and 2016................................................................................ 66

Table 16: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Croatia

between 2005 and 2016................................................................................ 71

vi

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Table 17: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in

Macedonia between 2010 and 2016 .............................................................. 79

Table 18: Chinese tourists’ arrivals and accommodations in Montenegro in

2014 and 2016 ............................................................................................. 81

Table 19: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Kosovo

between 2010 and 2016................................................................................ 84

Table 20: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Serbia

between 2011 and 2016................................................................................ 86

Table 21: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in

Slovenia between 2005 and 2016 .................................................................. 89

Table 22: The trend of Chinese tourist’s arrivals – part 1 ............................... 95

Table 23: The trend of Chinese tourists – part 2............................................. 96

vi i

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Index of figures

page

Figure 1: Western Balkan Countries and China ................................................. 8

Figure 2: Trend line in the top five destinations (in mil ions arrivals) .............. 14

Figure 3: World’s Top 10 Tourism Destinations.............................................. 15

Figure 4: Trend line in the top five earners in tourism (in bil ion USD)............. 21

Figure 5: Trend line in first five top tourism spenders (in bil ion USD)............. 23

Figure 6: Actual trend and forecast of international tourist arrivals in period

1997 - 2050 ................................................................................................. 29

Figure 7: Distribution of Consumer Income Groups in Asia in period 2010-2030

..................................................................................................................... 44

Figure 8 Household spending on Leiusure and Recreation, Current Prices (in

bil ion USD) ................................................................................................... 45

Figure 9: Border crossings from Mainland China in mil ions 2000-2016......... 46

Figure 10: Visa requirements for Chinese citizens .......................................... 55

Figure 11: Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens ...................................... 56

Figure 12: The distribution of Chinese tourists in B&H according to a month of

arrival between 2008 and 2016 ..................................................................... 68

Figure 13: The distribution of al Chinese tourists in Croatia according to a

month of arrival between 2007 and 2016 ...................................................... 72

Figure 14: The distribution of al Chinese tourists from PRC in Croatia according

to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016................................................ 74

Figure 15: The distribution of al Chinese tourists from Hong Kong in Croatia

according to a month of arrival between 2013 and 2016................................ 75

Figure 16: The distribution of al Chinese tourists from Taiwan in Croatia

according to a month of arrival between 2013 and 2016................................ 76

Figure 17: The distribution of al Chinese tourists from Macao in Croatia

according to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016................................ 77

Figure 18: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Macedonia according to a

month of arrival between 2010 and 2016 ...................................................... 80

ix

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2018

Figure 19: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Montenegro according to a

month of arrival between 2014 and 2016 ...................................................... 83

Figure 20: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Serbia according to a month

of arrival between 2011 and 2016 ................................................................. 87

Figure 21: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Slovenia according to a month

of arrival between 2005 and 2016 ................................................................. 91

Figure 22: Index of growth of Chinese outbound tourism in countries of ex

Yugoslavia in period 2010-2016 ................................................................... 97

Figure 23: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan region – Arrivals from 2005

to 2016....................................................................................................... 101

Figure 24: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan region – Overnights from

2005 to 2016.............................................................................................. 102

Figure 25: The Future of Chinese Travel....................................................... 103

Figure 26: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in world in

period 1995–2027....................................................................................... 106

Figure 27: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese tourism expenditure in world in

period 1995–2027....................................................................................... 108

Figure 28: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in selected

countries of Balkan region in period 2005–2027 .......................................... 109

Figure 29: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese tourism expenditure in selected

countries of Balkan region in period 2005–2027 .......................................... 111

x

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

1 INTRODUCTION

Tourism industry has became one of the most important and fastest-growing

economic sectors in the world, according to some figures such as: 10.2 % of

total world GDP, 9.7 % of total world employment (direct, indirect and induced

impact)(WTTC, 2017), and 7 % of world exports with average growth rate at 3.3

% a year between 2010 and 2030 (UNWTO, 2016).The growth rate of tourism is

higher than international trade concerning the period 2012 – 2016 (3.3 % in

comparison to 3 %), and tourism as export category is on the third place after

fuels and chemicals and ahead of food and automotive product (United Nations

World Economic Situation Prospects, 2017).

The world most emerging source market, in this regard, is China1as world top

tourism spender, since 2012. If the number of outbound Chinese tourists in

2008 was just over 20 mil ions, this number increased to 135.1 mil ion in 2016,

an increase of 5.7 % compared with the same period in 2015. There has been

also exceptional increase in how many Chinese tourists spend abroad – in 2016

they’ve spent a USD 261.1 bil ion which is greater consumption at USD 139.6

bil ion than USA citizens spend traveling abroad, and it is 11.7 % growth rate (in

local currency) in comparison to previous year, also China got over 1/5 market

share (21.4 %) at world source market (UNWTO, 2017b).

In new one COTRI Market Report (Arlt & Deng-Westphal, 2017), it was stated a

few travel attributes concerning Chinese outbound tourism in Europe.

1Chinese different sources are treated differently. Thus, according to one methodology, it is only the region of the LR of China, others include Macao and Hong Kong. In particular, Taiwan

may be considered. This is due to the fact that statistics on arrivals, overnight stays and consumption of Chinese tourists and from these countries are then mixed.

1

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Europe, as destination, is accepted by 11.5 % of al outbound traveling beyond

Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR.

There is higher demand for variety of travel products including offerings in

sports, health, wedding and cruise travel. Chinese footbal fans are increasingly

more interested in, for example, UK, Spain and Germany. By exploring not just

the world but themselves, Chinese travelers are, especial y the new generation,

asking for intel ectual and artistic ideals. Stil pursuing in experience of local

culture when they traveling, Chinese also require China-friendly service and

appreciate a feeling of home (Ibid).

Total international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) increased by 3.9 % in

2016, reaching a record 1,235 mil ion, up from 1,189 mil ion in 2015 which

means that 46 mil ion more tourist traveled abroad or 300 mil ion more tourists

comparing the pre-crisis record in 2008. Demand for international tourism

remained robust, with growth rate exceeding the long-term average rate in

period 2010 – 2030 (3.3 %) for the seventh year in a row, fol owing the 2009

global economic crisis and slightly above average rate in period 2010 – 2020

(3.8 %). The main travel region in 2016 is Europe (615 mil ion travelers or 49.8

%), fol owing by Asia and the Pacific (308.6 mil ion travelers or 25 %), Americas

(200.2 mil ion or 16.2 %), Africa (57.8 mil ion or 4.7 %) and Middle East (53.6

mil ion or 4.3 %). By achieving yearly growth rate the leading region is Asia and

the Pacific (+ 8.6 %), fol owed by Africa (+8.2 %), Americas (+ 3.9 %), Europe (+

2.1 %), and Middle East (- 4 %). In 2017 there is forecast about yearly growth

rate of international arrivals at + 3 % to + 4 % in world and + 2 % to + 3 % in

Europe, + 5 % to + 6 % in Asia and Pacific and Africa both, + 4 % to + 5 % in

Americas, and + 2 % to + 5 % in the Middle East(UNWTO, 2017d).

The most popular destinations, according to number of the international tourist

arrivals, in 2016 were: France (82.6 mil ion), United States (75.6 mil ion), Spain

2

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

(75.6 mil ion), China (59.3 mil ion), Italy (52.4 mil ion), Turkey (25.3 mil ion),

Germany (35.6 mil ion), United Kingdom (35.8 mil ion),Mexico (35.0 mil ion)

and Thailand (32.6 mil ion). Comparing to the previous year in these

destinations were achieved different growth rates: France (- 4.0 %), United

States (- 2.3 %), Spain (+ 10.3 %), China (+ 4.2 %), Italy (+ 3.7 %), Turkey (-28.5

%), Germany (+ 1.7 %), United Kingdom (+ 3.4 %), Mexico (+ 8.9 %) and

Thailand (+ 8.9 %) (UNWTO, 2017b).

Changes in hotel’s occupancy rates comparing 2016 to 2015 are much minor

than growth rates in regions: Asia and the Pacific + 1.0 %, Africa & Middle East –

1.6 %, Americas 0 % and Europe + 0.4 % (Ibid). That could point on variety of

choice in accommodation establishments and main share of business travel in

hotels.

In air transport sector, in 2016, there is stable growth rate in Europe

concerning Revenue Passenger per Kilometers (RPK) (+ 4.2 %) which is below

world growth rate (+ 6.1 %) and much below the highest growth rate in the

Middle East with more than 10 % growth. The robust growth in airline capacity

in Europe continued at + 4.2 %, which is in line with previous years and wil be

support for expected demand grows. European Airlines Passenger Load Factor

is in line with demand growing in 2016 (80.3 %). The air traffic on European-

Asian routes seems to continue to slow down due to security concerns and

some slowdown in emerging markets. The air traffic between Europe and

America continued to grow, mostly due to United States outbound travel

(European Travel Commision, 2017).

In UN WESP (United Nations World Economic Situation Prospect) report (United

Nations World Economic Situation Prospects, 2017) is described the main global

frame regarding tourism flows. In 2016 world gross product expanded by 2.2 %

with forecast to expand by 2.7 % in 2017 and 2.9 % in 2018 which is more

3

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

indicator of economic stabilization than robust and sustained revival of global

demand. In economies in transition is projected expand by 1.4 % of gross

domestic product in 2017. East and South Asia wil be region growing more

rapidly comparing to others due to strong domestic demand and more

accommodating macroeconomic policy (Ibid).

World trade volume grew up by 1.2 % in 2016, which is one of the three lowest

rates in last 30 years, with projection to expand by 2.7 % in 2017 and 3.3 % in

2018 (Ibid).

There are three main factors, stated in report, which strongly shaped the

tourism flows in 2015 and 2016, such as: strong exchange rate fluctuations,

the decline in price of oil and other commodities and ongoing global concern

about safety and security. Which means that those factors influenced on

destination choice and consequently the size and direction of specific tourism

flows rather than the size of overal tourism volume as stated in figures before

(Ibid)?

Due to that reasons it could be expected that region with strongest growth

rates regarding tourism flows wil be Asia and Pacific at the moment on the

second place (beyond Europe) in structure of tourism regional market shares.

Changes in exchange rates influenced the shift of the purchasing power in

many source markets and the competitiveness of many destinations. The

appreciation of the US dol ar, for example, fostered departure from USA, Euro

area destinations and number of emerging economies benefitted for weaker

currencies (Ibid).

Fal of oil, transport service and other commodity prices fostered tourism

growth indubitably left more income in importing countries but lowered up

demand from commodity exporting markets (Ibid).

4

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The security and geopolitical tensions as main global chal enge stil remains

and redirecting the travel flows. Terrorist actions in Belgium, Egypt, France,

Tunisia and Turkey had obvious consequences regarding tourism industry but

in other hand many destinations experienced double-digit growth such as

Canada, Japan, Spain and Thailand (Ibid).

In that global frame, tourism industry realized very strong effects in domain of

receipts and spending.

Total international tourism receipts reached USD 1,220 bil ion in 2016, up 2.6

per cent in comparison to 2015.

The bigger earner in 2016 in world is region Europe (USD 447.3 bil ion),

fol owed by Asia and Pacific (USD 366.7 bil ion), Americas (USD 313.2 bil ion),

Middle East (USD 57.6 bil ion) and Africa (USD 34.8 bil ion) (UNWTO, 2017b).

These regions achieved growth rates in earnings according to last year, as

fol ows: Europe (+ 0.9 %), Asia and Pacific (+ 4.8 %), Americas (+ 2.7 %), Middle

East (- 2.0 %) and Africa (+ 8.3 %) (Ibid).

United States are leading one in tourism receipts in 2016 getting USD 206.8

bil ion, fol owed by Spain USD 60.3 bil ion, Thailand USD 49.4 bil ion, China

USD 44.4 bil ion, France USD 43.1 bil ion, Italy USD 40.6 bil ion, United

Kingdom USD 39.6 bil ion, Germany USD 37.4 bil ion, Hong Kong (China) USD

32.7 bil ion, and Macao (China) USD 29.9 bil ion.

By growth rate in comparison to previous year the highest growth in first ten

earners is recorded in Thailand (+ 14.7 %), fol owed by Spain (+ 7.1 %), Italy (+

3.3 %), Germany (+ 1.7 %), United States (+ 1.1 %), China (- 1.2 %), United

Kingdom (- 1.4 %), France (- 6 %), Macao (China) (- 3.4 %) and Hong Kong (- 9.3

%) (UNWTO, 2017d).

5

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

In area of tourism international expenditure and number of departures it is

already mentioned China as leading one source market.

Second world source market is United States which spent in 2016 USD 123.6

bil ion and realized 100.32 mil ion departures.

Other main world source markets in 2016 are: Germany (USD 79.8 bil ion and

119.5 mil ion departures), United Kingdom (USD 63.6 bil ion and 70.8 mil ion

departures), France (USD 40.5 bil ion and 75,3 mil ion departures), Canada

(USD 29.1 bil ion and 53.0 mil ion departures), Korea (ROK) (USD 26.6 bil ion

and 22.4 mil ion departures), Italy (USD 25.0 bil ion and 62.6 departures),

Australia (USD 24.9 bil ion and 9.9 mil ion departures) and Hong Kong (China)

(USD 24.2 bil ion and 91.8 mil ion departures) (UNWTO, 2017a;UNWTO, 2017).

The top spenders, concerning first ten source markets, in 2016, were tourists

from Australia who spent USD 2,555 per departure. Chinese spent USD 1,932

and Koreans USD 1,187 per departure. Other travelers spent less per departure:

United Kingdom (USD 903), Canada (USD 549), and Italy (USD 394), Hong Kong

(China) (USD 262).

The top risers in 2016 (in local currency), regarding growth rate in first ten

source markets in comparison to 2015, were United Kingdom (+ 13.8 %), China

(+ 11.7 %), United States (+ 7.8 %), Australia (+ 6.0 %), Korea (ROK) (+ 5.4 %),

Hong Kong (+ 5.1 %) France (+ 3.3 %), Germany (+ 3.2 %), Italy (+ 2.4 %) and

Canada (+ 0.0 %) (Ibid).

Tourism industry is recognized as important tool in concept of sustainable

development. The United Nations (UN) General Assembly at its 70th session

declares the 2017 as “International Year of Sustainable Tourism for

2 The number of departures in United States, Germany and France is not final due to lack of data in UNWTO statistics

6

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Development (IY2017)”. In International Year resolution, it wil be promoted

tourism’ role in five areas, such as (UNWTO, 2017d):

 Inclusive and sustainable economic growth,

 Social inclusiveness, employment and poverty reduction,

 Resource efficiency, environmental protection and climate change,

 Cultural values, diversity and heritage,

 Mutual understanding, peace and security.

That means that tourism have to contribute in economical, social and

environmental dimensions of sustainable development through creating new

decent jobs and generating new revenues in accordance to declared goals.

Tourism is the most recognizable, effective and sustainable opportunity for

many developing and least developed countries to achieve faster development

and poverty al eviation (United Nations World Economic Situation Prospects,

2017).

In 2016,10.2 mil ion Chinese visited Europe which is 11.8 % of al outbound

travel from China, and that is up 2 % from 2015 (European Travel Commision,

2017). The modest growth rate showing "a higher sensitivity to adverse events

than other markets" (ETC Bulletin, 2018). More the 80 % of Chinese travelers

visited Western (48.74 %) and Central/Eastern Europe (35.92 %), and less than

20 % visited Northern (8.61 %) and Southern Europe (6.73 %). In 2021 travel to

Europe is projected at 14.0 % of al outbound travel from China. The highest

growth rate in Chinese arrivals in 2016 comparing to 2015 was achieved in

Latvia (+ 89.6 %) despite the fal in Turkey (- 49.1 %), Monaco (- 37.4 %) and

Belgium (- 28.2 %) (European Travel Commision, 2017).

In West Balkan region the most attractive country (Figure 1: Western Balkan

Countries and China), regarding Chinese travelers, is Croatia, fol owed by

Slovenia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia.

7

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 1: Western Balkan Countries and China

How these countries fare with regard to attracting Chinese tourists? The review

of statistical data showed a positive trend in the growth of Chinese arrivals,

albeit perhaps slow in comparison to some other regions. It also showed

substantial decrease in the average length of stay in some countries of West

Balkan region, which should alarm the tourism planners as wel as tourism

providers. Why is the length of stay getting shorter by each year and which

regions are profiting? What are the prospects concerning the number of

Chinese arrivals? Al this remains unknown due to lack of any research in this

area.

8

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The report prepared by three authors working on topic of Chinese outbound

tourism attempts to provide at least some answers regarding the phenomena of

Chinese tourists in West Balkan countries.

The main purpose of this report was to point on basic trends and to form

recommendations how to market these destinations more efficiently. It is thus

our hope the report wil provide a vantage point for future research on the topic

and wil be in this regard of use for academics as wel as practitioners in the

field of tourism marketing and tourism planning.

9

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

10

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2 WORLD TOURISM

2.1 General information

Not only the ranking of destinations has changed dramatical y over the years,

but also the sheer number of countries visited by tourists has increased

tremendously. Here are some interesting observations about the number of

international arrivals at the most popular destinations (Table 1: Top tourist

destinations by international arrival in period 1950-2016):3

 The top 5 countries in the ranking accounted for 71 % of al arrivals in

1950, 31 % in 2010 and only 28 % in 2016.

 The “Other” category, which represents the al other countries beyond the

first fifteen destinations in the ranking, accounted for only 3% of arrivals

in 1950, but rose to 34 % in 1990, 44 % in 2010, and to48 % in 2016.

 Yugoslavia’s4 ranking dropped from 9th in 1970 (3 % of total arrivals)

(Kobašić, 1987) to 14th in 1990 (2 % of total arrivals) (Ibid), and final y to

19th in 20165 (1,45 % of total arrivals) (Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad

RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics, 2017; Republic

of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska Državni

zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine,

2017; Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija

Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017).

 China is not only a very active outbound market; it has also become an

extremely popular destination.

3

http://tourismintelligence.ca/2011/07/26/global-ranking-of-destinations-and-source-

markets/

4 All Yugoslav countries together

5 Total arrivals in countries in former Yugoslavia in 2016 (without mutual arrivals) was:

17.994.547

11

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

 Malaysia, Turkey and Hong Kong have made major inroads into the

tourism market.

The tourism sector has been demonstrating its resilience for over 60 years

(Levasseur, 2011).

Table 1: Top tourist destinations by international arrivals in period 1950 – 2016

Rank

1950

1970

1990

2000

2010

2016

1

United states

Italy

France

France

France

France

2

Canada

Canada

United States

United States

United States

United States

3

Italy

71%

France

43%

Spain

39%

Spain

36%

China

31%

Spain

28%

4

France

Spain

Italy

Italy

Spain

China

5

Switzerland

United States

Austria

China

Italy

Italy

6

Ireland

Austria

Mexico

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

7

Austria

Germany

Germany

18%

Mexico

Turkey

Germany

8

Spain

17%

Switzerland

22%

United Kingdom

Canada

15%

Germany

14%

Mexico

14%

9

Germany

Yugoslavia

Canada

Germany

Malaysia

Thailand

10

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

China

Austria

Mexico

Austria

11

Norway

Hungary

Greece

Poland

Austria

Malaysia

12

Argentina

Czechoslovakia

Portugal

Greece

Ukraine

Hong Kong (China)

13

Mexico

9%

Belgium

10%

Switzerland

9%

Portugal

9%

Hong Kong

11%

Turkey

10%

14

Netherlands

Bulgaria

Yugoslavia

Malaysia

Russian Federation

Greece

15

Denmark

Romania

Malaysia

Netherlands

Canada

Russian Federation

Other

3%

Other

25%

Other

34%

Other

40%

Other

44%

48%

Total

25 million

166 million

436 million

683 million

880 million

1235 million

Source: (Levasseur, 2011; UNWTO, 2017a; Wikipedia, 2017a)

The tourism flow in world during period 2000 to 2016 (

Table 2: Ten most visited tourist destinations countries (in mil ions of tourists)6

could be presented by, using traffic light rating system and trends (In presented

trend line there is possibility to convergence in arrivals among France and

United States and Spain and China, what wil be interesting if happened in

future. Arrivals in United States are in sharp growth since 2008 and after fal

from 2001. Also it could be noticed same line in Spain after fal in 2009 but its

trend line diverge from United States (

6A traffic light rating system is a system for indicating the status of a variable using the red,

yellow or green of traffic lights to indicate the positive or negative dynamics of particular variable.

12

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 2: Trend line in the top five destinations (in mil ions arrivals)).

Figure 2: Trend line in the top five destinations (in mil ions arrivals)

Table 2: Ten most visited tourist destinations countries (in mil ions of tourists)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

The world

674

809

953 1,137 1,186 1,235

France

77.2

75.0

77.6

83.7

84.5

82.6

USA

51.2

49.2

60.0

75.0

77.5

75.6

Spain

46.4

55.9

52.7

64.9

68.2

75.6

China

31.2

46.8

55.7

55.6

56.9

59.3

Italy

41.2

36.5

43.6

48.6

50.7

52.6

United Kingdom

23.2

28.0

28.3

32.6

34.4

35.8

Germany

19.0

21.5

26.9

33.0

35.0

35.6

Mexico

20.6

21.9

23.3

29.3

32.1

35.0

Thailand

9.6

11.6

15.9

24.8

29.9

32.6

Turkey

9.6

24.2

31.4

39.8

39.5

25.4

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b)7

The most attractive destinations are France and United States, which accept 10

to 20 mil ion arrivals more than Spain. In first ten destinations there are half of

them from Europe as most popular visiting region. It is worth to mention that

first five countries in rank, account in average on 32 % of the total arrivals in

world.

In presented trend line there is possibility to convergence in arrivals among

France and United States and Spain and China, what wil be interesting if

happened in future. Arrivals in United States are in sharp growth since 2008

7UNWTO uses separate categories for tourists from PR China, tourists from SAR Macao, tourists

from SAR Hong Kong and tourists from Republic of China (Taiwan).

13

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

and after fal from 2001. Also it could be noticed same line in Spain after fal in

2009 but its trend line diverge from United States (

Figure 2: Trend line in the top five destinations (in mil ions arrivals)).

Figure 2: Trend line in the top five destinations (in mil ions arrivals)

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b)

Since 2004 China became the 4thworld destination by number or arrivals, ahead

of Italy from that year.

These ten countries achieved very different average growth rate (geometric

growth rate) in period 1995-2016 (The World Bank, 2017b). The Thailand

achieved the most highest growth rate (7.63 %), fol owed by Turkey (6.26 %),

China (5.30 %) and Germany (4.25 %) which al above world average growth rate

in that period (4.15 %), and other countries below world average rate such as:

Spain (4.03 %), USA (2.69 %), Mexico (2.64 %), Italy (2.54%), United Kingdom

(2.42 %) and France (1.53 %) (Ibid).

14

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The figure (World’s Top 10 Tourism Destinations) presents 10 Most Visited

Countries in The World 2014. Situation in 2016 is practical the same.

Figure 3: World’s Top 10 Tourism Destinations

Source: (World Atlas, 2017)

There is a very interesting question: What makes some countries to be popular

and to an attractive lot of visitors? Very comprehensive presentation of some

countries as the most popular tourist destinations in the world is made by one

interesting report, which fol ows (World Atlas, 2017)

10. Turkey

By its rich cultural heritage and ethnic diversity, Turkey is one of the very

popular destinations. There are numerous historical, cultural and archaeological

sites and charming seaside resorts along the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts

(Ibid). Due to a lot of unfortunate incidences like attacks from the Islamic State

(ISIS), the al eged shoot down of a Russian jet by Turkey, and the ensuing

tension between the two countries, tourism industry suffers a very lot. The

capital of Turkey is Ankara (Ibid).

15

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

9. Thailand

Thailand is a global tourist hotspot by its sunny, sandy beaches, tropical

islands, rich wildlife, archaeological sites, temples and monasteries. There are

many attractions in the country such as the vibrant and lively festivals of the

country, the thriving nightlife, world-class shopping facilities, and delectable

Thai cuisine. In its, directly and indirectly, manner, the tourism generated

revenue contributes nearly. Medical tourism in Thailand is recognizable through

world-class treatment at relatively lower costs for patients comparing to their

homeland (Ibid).

8. Mexico

Since the 1960s its tourism has been heavily promoted by the Mexican

government, as "an industry without smokestacks." (Ibid). According to the

World Tourism Organization, Mexico is one of the most visited countries in

American region, on the second place after the United States. Also, Mexico as a

destination, has a significant number of UNESCO World Heritage sites which

include ancient ruins, colonial cities, and natural reserves, and numerous of

works of modern public and private architecture. In the early nineteenth

century, Mexico has attracted foreign visitors thanks to cultural festivals,

colonial cities, nature reserves and the beach resorts. A mix of the European

and the Mesoamerican culture and very nice local temperate are attractive to

tourists. The high seasons are during December and the mid-Summer, with

"brief surges during the week before Easter and Spring break" (Ibid), when

“many of the beach resort sites become popular destinations for col ege

students from the United States” (Ibid).

7. Germany

Germany is considered as one of the safest tourist destinations global y and has

a lot of tourists al over the world as wel as domestic tourists. In the cities such

16

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

as Berlin, Munich and Hamburg are the most popular cultural tourism and

visitation in educational and business purposes, also. The Saxon Switzerland

National Park, the Western Pomerania Lagoon Area National Park, and the

Jasmund National Park as protected areas in Germany are visited by mil ions of

tourists every year.

6. United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is ranked, by tourist arrivals, at 8th place in the world,

thanks to “a long, interesting history, rich culture and wel -developed tourism

facilities and infrastructure” (Ibid). The main source markets are other parts of

Europe and the United States and Canada. Domestic tourism is also very

important. The most popular city is London with Tower of London as the most

popular attraction in the country.

5. Italy

At the 5th place in the world, by a number of international arrivals, for many of

the tourists is Italy, “of the dream destinations” (Ibid). There are “50 UNESCO

World Heritage Sites, innumerable cultural artifacts, buildings, and

archaeological sites from the Roman Empire and the Renaissance periods, along

with the quaint Alpine vil ages and towns in the north of the country and

fascinating Mediterranean coasts to the south” (Ibid), which describe this

destination in the best way. The most visited cities are Rome, Venice, Florence,

and Milan, “each with their unique attractions, history, culture and cuisine”

(Ibid).

4. China

China as one of the most desired country in the world is recognizable by “the

land of the Great Wal of China, the Fiver Sacred Mountains, the Shaolin Temple,

the Huangguoshu Waterfal , the Forbidden City, the Three Gorges, and another

17

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

natural, cultural y and historical y important site”. By the estimation of the

UNWTO, China wil become the first one in world tourism industry, by 2020.

3. Spain

The main source markets for one of the most popular world destination, such

as Spain, are United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany. Tourism attractions in

this destination are worldwide known, which include: “historical cities and

towns of the country like Barcelona and Madrid, the world-class resorts at the

Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of the country, the popular festivals like the

Carnival and the Running of the Bulls, 15 national parks, wel -developed winter

tourism facilities, and a bustling nightlife” (Ibid). Among these attractions, there

are 13 cities which are regarded as UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

2. United States

As the vast country with numerous attractions, United States are global y known

tourist destination. U.S. cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas

are full of tourist al year around. Worldwide known natural attractions in this

country are: “Grand Canyon, Yel owstone National Park, the Alaskan subarctic

wonders the Hawai an beaches” (Ibid). The tourism sector is in third place

among other industries in 29 states in the country, generating a lot of

employment opportunities. The main source markets are Mexico, Canada, and

the United Kingdom and domestic tourism.

1. France

The France is one of the first destination in the world by a number of arrivals.

The variety of natural and cultural attractions includes: “Paris, Lyon, Strasbourg,

the Alpine mountains, ski resorts, beaches, picturesque French vil ages,

spectacular gardens and parks, and more” (Ibid). This destination posses “37

UNESCO World Heritage Sites, that are wel recognized global y for their

18

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

outstanding universal value” (Ibid). Travel and tourism industry make 9.7 % of

the national GDP (Ibid).

MasterCard has released its Global Destination Cities Index, which provides a

ranking of the 132 most visited cities around the world(World Economic Forum,

2016).

Measured by the number of international overnight visitors, the study, now in

its seventh year, predicts which countries wil be the most visited in 2016.

From the Asia-Pacific region to Europe to the Middle East and Africa, here are

the 20 cities set to see the most visitors this year (Ibid):

 20) Prague, Czech Republic - 5.81 mil ion international visitors

 19) Shanghai, China - 6.12 mil ion international visitors

 18) Vienna, Austria - 6.69 mil ion international visitors

 17) Osaka, Japan - 7.02 mil ion international visitors

 16) Rome, Italy - 7.12 mil ion international visitors

 15) Taipei, Taiwan - 7.5 mil ion international visitors

 14) Milan, Italy - 7.65 mil ion international visitors

 13) Amsterdam, Netherlands - 8 mil ion international visitors

 12) Barcelona, Spain - 8.20 mil ion international visitors

 11) Hong Kong, China - 8.37 mil ion international visitors

 10) Seoul, South Korea - 10.20 mil ion international visitors

 9) Tokyo, Japan - 11.70 mil ion international visitors

 8) Istanbul, Turkey - 11.95 mil ion international visitors

 7) Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - 12.02 mil ion international visitors

 6) Singapore - 12.11 mil ion international visitors

 5) New York City, USA - 12.75 mil ion international visitors

 4) Dubai, United Arab Emirates - 15.27 mil ion international visitors

 3) Paris, France - 18.03 mil ion international visitors

19

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

 2) London, England - 19.88 mil ion international visitors



1) Bangkok, Thailand - 21.47 mil ion international visitors.

2.2 Income from tourism

Next table (Table 3: Income from tourism by country (in bil ion USD)) presentes

data about income from tourism industry.

Table 3: Income from tourism by country (in bil ion USD)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

The world

495.0 701.0 961.0 1,250.0 1,194.0 1,220.0

USA

100.2 101.5 137.0

191.3

204.5

206.8

Spain

30.9

49.7

54.6

65.1

56.5

60.3

Thailand

7.5

9.6

20.1

38.4

44.6

49.9

China

16.2

29.3

45.8

44.0

45.0

44.4

France

33.0

44.0

47.0

58.1

45.9

43.1

Italy

27.5

35.4

38.8

45.5

39.4

40.6

United Kingdom

22.2

31.1

32.4

46.5

45.5

39.6

Germany

18.7

29.2

34.7

43.3

36.9

37.4

Hong Kong (China)

5.9

10.3

22.2

38.4

36.2

32.7

Macao (China)

3.2

6.9

22.3

42.7

31.0

29.9

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b)

The main earner in world tourism industry are United States taking part at 13.5

% of al income and receiving income USD 140 bil ion more than Spain. In these

ten countries are receiving nearly 50 % of total world income in tourism

industry. It could be noticed that in most attractive destination such as France

according to number of arrivals there is no the highest income which point on

less revenue per arrival than in United States or Spain for example (Table 4:

Income per arrival by countries (in USD), Figure 4: Trend line in the top five

earners in tourism (in bil ion USD))).

20

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 4: Income per arrival by countries (in USD)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

The world

720.21

869.73

1,022.34

1,102.29

1,006.75

987.85

USA

1,968.57

2,054.66

2,294.81

2,557.49

2,638.71

2,735.45

Macao (China)

766.67

1,873.95

1,541.52

2,167.83

1,904.46

Thailand

1,261.77

1,548.39

1,491.64

1,530.67

Hong Kong (China)

450.38

700.68

1,110.00

1,386.28

1,355.81

1,233.96

United Kingdom

880.95

1,036.67

1,153.02

1,426.38

1,322.67

1,106.15

Germany

984.21

1,358.14

1,289.96

1,312.12

1,054.29

1,050.56

Spain

645.09

893.88

1,036.05

1,001.54

828.45

797.62

Italy

667.48

969.86

889.91

936.21

777.12

771.86

China

519.23

626.07

822.26

791.37

790.86

748.74

France

436.51

578.95

611.98

694.15

543.20

521.79

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b)

United States, Thailand, Macao (China), Germany, United Kingdom and Hong

Kong (China) earn per arrival above world average (USD 987). The lowest

income per arrival in first ten earners is in France.

Figure 4: Trend line in the top five earners in tourism (in bil ion USD)

Source: (UNWTO, 2017d)

When it comes about achieved average growth rate (geometric growth rate) in

these first ten countries in period 1995-2016 (The World Bank, 2017b) it is

noticed that the Macao SAR (China) achieved the most highest growth rate

21

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

(11.17 %), fol owed by Thailand (7.60 %), China (7.47 %) and Hong Kong SAR

(China) (6.01 %) which al above world average growth rate in that period (4.47

%), and other countries below world average rate such as: Spain (3.87 %), USA

(3.83 %), Italy (2.38 %), Germany (2.33 %), United Kingdom (1.86%) and France

(1.68 %) (Ibid).

2.3 International tourism expenditure

International tourism expenditure signs on most attractive source markets and

best spenders per capita (Table 5: Tourists’ consumption by the country of

origin (in bil ion USD)).

Table 5: Tourists’ consumption by the country of origin (in bil ion USD)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

The world

495

701

961 1,250 1,194 1,220.0

China

13.1

21.8

54.9 227.3 249.8

261.1

USA

65.8

80.0

86.0 105.5 114.7

123.6

Germany

53.0

74.4

78.1

93.3

77.5

79.8

United Kingdom

40.3

62.6

54.9

62.6

63.3

63.6

France

22.6

31.8

38.5

48.7

39.3

40.5

Canada

12.4

18.0

29.7

34.4

30.1

29.1

Korea (ROK)

7.1

15.4

18.8

23.2

25.3

26.6

Australia

6.4

11.8

22.5

26.9

23.8

24.9

Italy

15.7

22.4

27.1

28.8

24.4

25

Hong Kong (China)

12.5

12.3

23.1

24.2

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b)

Although United States are the best earners in tourism industry, their citizens

also have spent the most in the world til 2010, for traveling abroad.

Even more striking is the growth of Chinese tourists' expenditure abroad (Table

5: Tourists’ consumption by the country of origin (in bil ion USD), Figure 5:

Trend line in first five top tourism spenders (in bil ion USD). If Chinese tourists

22

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

abroad in 2000 spent »only« 13 bil ion USD, their consumption increased to

261,1 bil ion in 2016 which is almost 22 % of total tourist expenditure in world,

and it is a forecast for more than 300 bil ion USD in 2017 by far the highest

increase among 10 largest tourism spenders(UNWTO, 2017b).

Figure 5: Trend line in first five top tourism spenders (in bil ion USD)

Source: (UNWTO, 2017d)

The growth of Chinese tourism spending indicates on increasing difference to

United States as second one spender in world. In 2016 Chinese tourists spent

USD 139.6 bil ion more than travelers from United States.

By using average growth rate (geometric growth rate) in these first ten countries

in period 1995-2016 (The World Bank, 2017b) it is very clear that China

realized the most highest growth rate (22.47 %), almost quadruple than growth

rate of Korea (ROK) at the second place (6.60 %), fol owed by Australia (6.04 %),

Italy (5.35 %), and Hong Kong SAR (China) (5.20 %), al of them above world

average growth rate (4.71 %), and other countries from the list of first ten

spenders such us Canada (4.04 %), United Kingdom (3.70 %), USA (3.42 %),

France (3.41 %) and Germany (0,87 %).

23

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

It is important to notice, concerning first five spenders, that China, Germany

and United Kingdom have negative and United States and France have positive

score in balance among tourism receipts and tourism spending, calculating in

average in period 1995 to 2016, which could mean that negative scored

countries are more source than receptive tourist destinations.

In 2016, Chinese tourists spent 12 % more in travel ing abroad (UNWTO Press

Release, 2017).

In this UNWTO press release is stated that “2016 results on expenditure from

major outbound markets reflect increasing demand for international tourism

across the world, as reported in the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

With a 12 % increase in spending, China continued to lead international

outbound tourism, fol owed by the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom

and France as top five spenders.” (Ibid)

In 2016, China made another strong year in the growth of outbound tourism, as

the world’s leading outbound market. The growth of international tourism

expenditure from US$ 11 bil ion to US$ 261 bil ion points on increase by 12 %

(in the local currency). 135 mil ion Chinese travel ed abroad in 2016, which is 6

% more than the previous year. Since 2012, China is number one source market

in the world with the trend of double-digit growth in tourism expenditure in

every year since 2004. Many destinations in Asia and Pacific such as Japan, the

Republic of Korea and Thailand, and long-haul destinations such as the United

States and a few in Europe benefited from such growth. The other Asian

destination in first ten outbound destination in the world are: the Republic of

Korea (US$ 27 bil ion) and Australia (US$ 27 bil ion) both realized 8 % growth in

2016 and Hong Kong (China) with growth at 5 % and US$ 24 bil ion of

international tourism expenditure (Ibid).

24

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The United States, as the world’s second largest source market, rise up tourism

spending in 2016, and realized US$ 122 bil ion, up US$ 9 bil ion on 2015,

which is growing at 8 %. Strong outbound travel growth in the third consecutive

year is mostly caused by a robust US dol ar and economy. The number of U.S.

international departures rose 8 % through November 2016 (74 mil ion in 2015)

(Ibid).

In contrary, in the second source market from the Americas, Canada, was

recorded “flat results” (Ibid) with US$ 29 bil ion in international tourism

spending and decline in international departures in 2016 by 3 % to 31 mil ion

(Ibid).

The four most important European source markets, Germany, the United

Kingdom, France and Italy recorded growth in international tourism expenditure

in 2016. Germany realized US$ 81 bil ion of international tourism spending in

2016, which is 5 % growth in comparison to previous year. Outbound demand

in the United Kingdom in 2016 was up by 7 % than in 2015 and reach 70 mil ion

departures who spent close to US$ 64 bil ion, “despite the significant

depreciation of the British pound in 2016” (Ibid). France realized US$ 41 bil ion

in international tourism expenditure which is 7% growth than in 2015. In Italy,

in 2016, was reported US$ 25 bil ion of international tourism spending (1 %

growth) made by 29 mil ion overnight trips (3 % growth) (Ibid).

Another fast-growing source markets in first 50 in the world, with double-digit

growth in spending in 2016 are: Vietnam (+28 %), Argentina (+26 %), Egypt

(+19 %), Spain (+17 %), India (+16 %), Israel and Ukraine (both +12 %), Qatar

and Thailand (both +11 %). Due to weaker economies and currencies in some

countries which are commodity exporters, outbound tourism continued to

decline in 2016. International tourism expenditure in Russian Federation

decreased in 2016 to US$ 24 bil ion, and also declined in Brazil to US$ 14.5

bil ion and Nigeria to US$ 1.1 bil ion(UNWTO, 2017d).

25

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

2.4 The most/Least countries overrun by tourists in world

It is very interesting to present some facts about most/least countries overrun

by tourists in the world, using data from Priceonomics report (Kopf, n.d.). and

his report is supplemented by new data from UNWTO(UNWTO, 2017b), World

Bank ((The World Bank, 2017a),(The World Bank, 2017c)).

These data point to the carrying capacity of tourism in the destination.

Priceonomics report from 2014 was supplemented by new data and it is

presented two lists of countries, as fol ows.

In the table (Table 6: The countries with the least tourist arrivals per inhabitant

in world in 2016) are presented the countries with the least tourists per

inhabitant in the world.

In another table (In next table are presented countries with most arrivals per

inhabitant in the world in 2016.

As it is presented, in countries such as Bangladesh, Guinea and Niger, there are

the smal est number of tourists per inhabitant and at this list, there is the

greatest dispersion of tourists per km2 in Chad, Niger and Mali.

In Andorra, Aruba and Monaco there are the most tourists per inhabitant in the

world, and on that list, there is the highest intensity of tourists per km2 in

Monaco, Hong Kong and Malta.

26

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 7: Countries with most tourist arrivals per inhabitant in world in 2016)

are presented the countries with most tourists per inhabitant in the world.

Table 6: The countries with the least tourist arrivals per inhabitant in world in

2016

Arrivals

Arrivals

International

Area (sq

per

per sq

Rank

Country

arrivals

Population

km)

capita

km

Bangladesh

1 (2014)

125,000

162,951,560

130,170 0.000767 0.960283

2 Guinea (2015)

35,000

12,395,924

245,720 0.002824 0.142439

3 Niger (2015)

135,000

20,672,987

1,266,700 0.006530 0.106576

4 Sierra Leone

54,000

7,396,190

72,180 0.007301 0.748130

5 Chad (2015)

120,000

14,452,543

1,259,200 0.008303 0.095299

6 Ethiopia (2015)

864,000

102,403,196

1,000,000 0.008437 0.864000

7 Mali (2015)

159,000

17,994,837

1,220,190 0.008836 0.130308

8 India

14,569,000 1,324,171,354

2,973,190 0.011002 4.900124

9 Madagascar

293,000

24,894,551

581,800 0.011770 0.503609

10 Moldova

121,000

3,552,000

32,870 0.034065 3.681168

*Remark: In some countries are presented data for arrivals in previous years

due to data from UNWTO

Source: (UNWTO, 2017a; The World Bank, 2017a; The World Bank, 2017c)

In next table are presented countries with most arrivals per inhabitant in the

world in 2016.

As it is presented, in countries such as Bangladesh, Guinea and Niger, there are

the smal est number of tourists per inhabitant and at this list, there is the

greatest dispersion of tourists per km2 in Chad, Niger and Mali.

In Andorra, Aruba and Monaco there are the most tourists per inhabitant in the

world, and on that list, there is the highest intensity of tourists per km2 in

Monaco, Hong Kong and Malta.

27

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 7: Countries with most tourist arrivals per inhabitant in world in 2016

Arrivals

International

per

Arrivals per

Rank

Country

arrivals

Population

Area (sq km)

capita

sq km

1 Andorra

2,831,000

77,281

470

36.63

6,023.40

2 Aruba

1,102,000

104,822

180

10.51

6,122.22

3 Monaco

336,000

38,499

2

8.73 168,000.00

4 Palau

138,000

21,503

460

6.42

300.00

5 Iceland

1,792,000

334,252

100,250

5.36

17.88

6 Malta

1,966,000

436,947

320

4.50

6,143.75

7 The Bahamas

1,482,000

391,232

10,010

3.79

148.05

8 Bermuda

244,000

65,331

50

3.73

4,880.00

9 Hong Kong

26,553,000

7,346,700

1,050

3.61

25,288.57

10 Maldives

1,286,000

417,492

300

3.08

4,286.67

Source: (UNWTO, 2017a; The World Bank, 2017a; The World Bank, 2017c)

2.5 Long-term trends and predictions

As it was previously discussed, forecasts of international tourist arrivals predict

an average of 3.3 % increase until 2030 (UNWTO, 2017b) In absolute numbers,

international tourist arrivals are expected to increase by almost 43 mil ion per

year on average between 2010 and 2030 compared with an increase of 28

mil ion per year during the period from 1995 to 2010. At this rate, international

tourist arrivals worldwide are expected to reach 1.4 bil ion by 2020 and 1.8

bil ion by the year 2030. From a regional perspective, Asia and the Pacific is

expected to witness the strongest growth in tourist arrivals, where the forecast

suggests an increase by 331 mil ion over the 2010–2030 period to reach 535

mil ion in 2030 with a growth of 4.9 % per year (Ibid). Tourist arrivals are also

expected to double in the Middle East (from 61 mil ion to 149 mil ion) and

Africa (from 50 mil ion to 134 mil ion) in the period from 2010 to 2030 (Ibid).

In contrast, projections suggest that growth in Europe (from 475 mil ion to 744

mil ion) and the Americas (from 150 mil ion to 248 mil ion) wil be slower

compared with the projections for other regions (Ibid). Moreover, emerging

28

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

economy destinations are expected to experience nearly twice as much growth

in international tourist arrivals (þ4.4 % a year) as advanced economy

destinations (þ2.2 % a year), exceeding the total number of arrivals in advanced

economies before 2020. As a result, it is expected that in 2030, 57 % of

international arrivals wil be in emerging economy destinations (versus 30 % in

1980) and the remaining 43 % in advanced economy destinations (vs. 70 % in

1980) (Ibid).

In next figure are presented actual data and forecast concerning international

tourist arrivals in world, in period 1997-2050.

Figure 6: Actual trend and forecast of international tourist arrivals in period

1997 - 2050

Source: (UNWTO, 2017b; own processing)

29

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

By probability at 90 %, it could be expected 2,376 mil ion of international

arrivals in the world in 2052. Expected number of international arrivals would

be realized by the average growth rate (GRR) at (1.9 %) which is calculated per

period from 2018 to 2050).

30

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

3 EUROPA

In this section we present a tourism flows in Europe.

In Southern/Medit.Europe is realized 35.40 % and in Western Europe 33.56 % of

al arrivals (in average in period 1995-2016), fol owed by Central/Eastern

Europe (19.56 %) and Northern Europe (11.47 %). Balkan countries take part at

2, 68 % of al arrivals (Table 8: International tourist arrivals in Europe countries

in period 2000-2016 (in thousands of tourists)).

Table 8: International tourist arrivals in Europe countries in period 2000-2016

(in thousands of tourists)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Denmark

3,535

9,587

9,425

10,267

10,424

Finland

1,971

2,080

2,319

2,731

2,622

2,789

Iceland

303

374

489

997.6

1,289

1792

Ireland

6,646

7,333

7,134

8,813

9,528

Norway

3,104

3,824

4,767

4,855

5,361

Sweden

3,828

4,883

5,183

5,660

6,482

United Kingdom

23,212

28,039

28,295

32,613

34,436

35,184

Northern Europe

44,599

58,125

59,622 67,950.6

72,157

39,765

Austria

17,982

19,952

22,004

25,291

26,719

28,121

Belgium

6,457

6,747

7,186

7,887

8,355

7,479

France

77,190

74,988

76,647

83,701

84,452

82,600

Germany

18,983

21,500

26,875

32,999

34,970

35,579

Liechtenstein

61,6

49.8

49.8

53.7

48.6

69

Luxembourg

852

913

805

1,038

1,090

1,054

Monaco

300

286

279

329

331

336

Netherlands

10,003

10,012

10,883

13,925

15,007

15,007

Switzerland

7,821

7,229

8,628

9,158

9,305

10,402

31

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Western Europe

139,650 141,677 153,357 174,382 180,278

180,647

Armenia

45

319

684

1,204

1,192

1,260

Azerbaijan

0

693

1,280

2,160

1,922

2,045

Belarus

60

91

119.3

136.8

102

Bulgaria

2,785

4,837

6,047

7,311

7,099

8,252

Czech Republic

4,773

6,336

6,334

8,096

8,707

12,090

Estonia

1,220

1,917

2,372

2,918

2,989

3,143

Georgia

387

560

2,032

5,516

5,901

2,175

Hungary

2,992

3,446

3,462

4,618

4,929

15,256

Kazakhstan

1,471

3,143

2,991

4,560

Kyrgyz Republic

59

319

855

2,849

3,051

Latvia

509

1,116

1,373

1,843

2,024

1,793

Lithuania

1,083

2,000

1,507

2,063

2,071

2,296

Poland

17,400

15,200

12,470

16,000

16,722

17,463

Moldova

18

67

64

93.9

94.4

121

Romania

5,264

5,839

7,498

8,442

9,331

2,471

Russian Federation

21,169

22,201

22,281

32,421

33,729

24,551

Slovak Republic

1,053

1,515

1,327

1,475

1,721

Tajikistan

7.7

160

213

414

Turkmenistan

3.4

11.6

Ukraine

6,431

17,631

21,203

12,712

12,428

13,333

Uzbekistan

302

242

975

32

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Central/Eastern Europe

67,032

87,484

95,034 114,632 114,426

106,249

Andorra

2,949

2,418

1,808

2,363

2,670

2,831

Cyprus

2,686

2,470

2,173

2,441

2,659

3,187

Greece

13,096

14,765

15,007

22,033

23,599

24,799

Israel

2,417

1,903

2,803

2,927

2,799

2,900

Italy

41,181

36,513

43,626

48,576

50,732

52,372

Malta

1,216

1,171

1,339

1,690

1,783

1,966

Portugal

5,599

5,769

6,756

9,092

9,957

11,423

San Marino

43

50

120

75

54

60

Spain

46,403

55,914

52,677

64,939

68,215

75,563

Turkey

9,586

20,273

31,364

39,811

39,478 25,352.21

Balkan Countries8

7,633

11,185

15,795

21,047

23,377

25,141

Southern/Medit.Europe

132,809 152,431 173,468 214,994 225,323

225,594

Europe total

384,090 439,716 481481 571,958 592,184

552,255

Source: (The World Bank, 2017;UNWTO, 2017a)

Looking at the average growth rate (geometric growth rate) in period 1995-

2016, it could be seen that Southern/Medit. Europe has the highest average

growth rate (4.26 %), fol owed by Central/Eastern Europe (3.51 %), Northern

Europe9 (3.4%), which is above Europe average growth rate (3.05 %), and

Western Europe (2.29 %). Balkan countries have an extremely high average

growth rate in that period (11.05 %).

8 Detailed data about international arrivals in individual Balkan countries are presented in





chapter 5 Balkan region


9 Average growth rate is calculated in period 1995-2015 due to lack of data.

33

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The highest (Table 9: International tourism receipts in Europe in period 2000-

2016 (in million USD)) average growth rate10 in period 1995-201511 is achieved

in Armenia (25.85 %), fol owed by Kyrgyz Republic (24.85 %), Georgia (23.62 %),

Montenegro12 (19.57 %), Albania (13.93 %), Croatia (11.32 %), Serbia13 (10.61 %)

and Bosnia and Herzegovina14 (10.57 %).

France took the most part of structure of al arrivals in 2016 (14.96 %), fol owed

by Spain (13.68 %), Italy (9.48 %), Germany (6.44 %), United Kingdom (6.37 %),

Austria (5.09 %), Turkey (4.59 %), Greece (4.49 %), Russian Federation (4.45 %),

and Poland (3.16 %).

10 It is important to note that the number of arrivals in 1995 in these countries was extremely

low than in 2015/2016 due to well known political and economic facts in those regions of

Europe.

11 It is calculated in that period due to lack of data in 2016 for these countries.

12 Average growth rate is calculated in period 2002-2016 due to lack of data.

13 Average growth rate is calculated in period 2002-2016 due to lack of data.

14 Average growth rate is calculated in period 1997-2016 due to lack of data.

34

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 9: International tourism receipts in Europe in period 2000-2016 (in

million USD)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Denmark

3,671

5,293

5,704

7,617

6,685

6,877

Finland

2,035

3,069

4,510

3,679

2,560

2,717

Iceland

386

635

562

1,375

1,618

2,415

Ireland

3,517

6,780

8,187

11,093

10,802

5,186

Norway

2,521

4,243

5,299

7,503

6,385

5,205

Sweden

4,825

7,628

10,674

11,846

11,307

12,614

United Kingdom

29,978

39,684

40,138

58,935

60,744

39,615

Northern Europe

48,933

69,337

77,084 104,062 102,116

74,629

Austria

11,382

18,471

18,758

20,907

18,273

19,300

Belgium

6,592

10,881

11,395

15,235

13,084

11,839

France

38,534

52,139

56,187

66,803

54,003

42,481

Germany

24,943

40,531

49,128

55,939

47,393

37,433

Liechtenstein

Luxembourg

1,686

3,770

4,519

6,153

4,875

4,292

Monaco

Netherlands

11,285

8,770

11,653

18,632

19,320

14,054

Switzerland

8,988

11,949

17,617

21,417

19,588

15,937

35

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Western Europe

103,410

146,511 169,257 205,086 176,536 145,336

Armenia

52

243

694

994

956

968

Azerbaijan

68

100

792

2,713

2,535

2,714

Belarus

188

346

665

1,230

1,016

710

Bulgaria

1,364

3,063

3,807

4,518

3,583

3,634

Czech Republic

2,973

5,772

8,068

7,614

6,758

6,309

Estonia

657

1,229

1,065

2,231

1,818

1,536

Georgia

107

287

737

1,972

2,117

2,166

Hungary

3,809

4,761

6,595

7,487

6,944

5,653

Kazakhstan

403

801

1,236

1,701

1,734

1,549

Kyrgyz Republic

20

94

212

468

481

432

Latvia

172

446

640

1,244

1,133

867

Lithuania

430

920

958

1,383

1,310

1,185

Poland

6,128

7,161

10,037

12,924

11,354

10,977

Moldova

57

138

222

322

285

245

Romania

394

1,324

1,631

2,225

2,097

1,729

Russian Federation

3,429

7,805

13,239

19,451

13,249

7,788

Slovak Republic

441

1,282

2,335

2,619

2,411

2,748

Tajikistan

9.1

32

220

146

4

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

563

3,542

4,696

2,264

1,656

1,078

Uzbekistan

63

28

121

0

0

0

36

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Central/Eastern Europe

21,318

39,351

57,782

73,580

61,583

52,292

Andorra

Cyprus

2,098

2,618

2,424

2,920

2,489

2,762

Greece

9,262

13,453

13,858

19,481

17,260

14,618

Israel

4,611

3,427

5,824

6,348

6,061

5,722

Italy

28,706

38,374

38,438

45,547

39,420

40,246

Malta

731

924

1,066

1,521

1,367

1,447

Portugal

6,027

9,042

12,985

17,723

15,819

14,036

San Marino

Spain

32,656

49,565

54,305

65,100

56,426

60,346

Turkey

7,636

20,760

26,318

38,766

35,413

18,743

Balkan Countries15

4,619

11,380

15,376

18,236

16,570

16,819

Southern/Medit.Europe

96,346

149,543 170,594 215,642 190,825 174,739

Europe total

270,007

404,742 474,717 598,370 531,060 446,996

Source: (The World Bank, 2017; UNWTO, 2017a)

The highest stake in income distribution, has Western Europe 36.49 % and

Southern/Medit.Europe with 35.97 % of al international tourism receipts (in

average in period 1995-2016), fol owed by Northern Europe (16.89 %) and

Central/Eastern Europe (10.65 %). Balkan countries realized 2,59 % of al

international tourism receipts.

The highest growth rate, by average growth rate (geometric growth rate) in

period 1995-2016, has Central/Eastern Europe (4.64 %),

fol owed by

Southern/Medit.Europe (3.70 %), which is above Europe average growth rate

(2.93 %), Northern Europe (2,57 %) and Western Europe (1.89 %). Balkan

countries have an extremely high average growth rate in that period (9.93 %).

The highest average growth rate16 in period 1995-201517 is achieved in Kyrgyz

Republic (25.65 %), fol owed by Armenia (23.51 %), Serbia18 (21.3 %), Belarus

15 Detailed data about international arrivals in individual Balkan countries are presented in chapter 5 Balkan region

37

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

(19.67 %), Georgia19 (19.36 %), Latvia (18.66 %), Azerbaijan (18.36 %), Albania

(16.99 %), Macedonia (14.19 %) and Lithuania (13.61 %).

In structure of al international receipts in 2016 the highest portion has Spain

(13.50 %), fol owed by France (9.50 %), Italy (9.00 %), United Kingdom (8.86 %),

Germany (8.37 %), Austria (4, 32 %), Turkey (4.19 %), Switzerland (3.57 %),

Greece (3, 27 %) and Netherlands (3.14 %).

The highest income per arrival in 2016 was achieved in Liechtenstein (US$

4,072.11), fol owed by Poland (US$ 2,024.79), Greece (US$ 1,973.10), Austria

(US$ 1,582.97), Netherlands (US$ 1,532.11), Finland (US$ 1,347.66), Armenia

(US$ 1,327.14), Montenegro (US$ 1,228.75), Sweden (US$ 1,125.94), France

(US$ 1,052.11), which is al above average income per arrival in Europe (US$

809.40).

Western Europe (

Table 10: International tourism expenditure in Europe in period 2000-2015 (in

bil ion USD)) is far away from other European regions with 46.88 % of al

international tourism expenditure (in average in period 1995-2015), fol owed

by Northern Europe (26.44 %), Southern/Medit.Europe (15.03 %) and

Central/Eastern Europe (11.65 %). Balkan countries spent just 0.85 % of total.

Looking at the average growth rate (geometric growth rate) in period 1995-

2015, in the first place is Central/Eastern Europe (6.15 %), fol owed by Northern

Europe (4,80 %), Southern/Medit.Europe (3,82 %), which is above Europe

16 It is important to note that the international tourism receipts in 1995 in these countries was

extremely low than in 2015/2016 due to well known political and economic facts in those

regions of Europe.

17 It is calculated in that period due to lack of data in 2016 for these countries.

18 Average growth rate is calculated in period 2002-2016 due to lack of data.

19 Average growth rate is calculated in period 1997-2016 due to lack of data.

38

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

average growth rate (3.63 %), and Western Europe (1.89 %). Balkan countries

have an extremely high average growth rate in that period (7.82 %).

Table 10: International tourism expenditure in Europe in period 2000-2015 (in

bil ion USD)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

Denmark

4,669

6,850

9,082

10,443

8,918

Finland

2,293

3,622

5,267

5,286

4,772

Iceland

471

991

599

972

998

Ireland

2,626

6,186

7,178

6,173

5,774

Norway

4,893

10,400

14,658

20,166

17,090

Sweden

8,959

11,088

13,973

15,823

14,410

United Kingdom

47,009

74,659

65,875

77,429

79,602

Northern Europe

72,920

115,801 118,642 138,306 133,579

Austria

7,001

11,077

10,122

10,849

9,100

Belgium

9,429

16,771

18,866

26,438

21,118

France

26,703

38,643

46,704

59,377

46,835

Germany

57,601

84,537

90,883 106,663

88,843

Liechtenstein

Luxembourg

1,309

3,015

3,626

3,948

3,369

Monaco

Netherlands

13,649

13,724

19,044

22,417

21,110

Switzerland

7,360

10,550

13,460

19,941

18,495

39

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

Western Europe

123,052

178,317 202,705 249,633 208,870

Armenia

56

255

641

1,101

1,057

Azerbaijan

138

188

856

3,163

2,743

Belarus

247

516

748

1,308

1,004

Bulgaria

764

1,858

975

1,459

1,346

Czech Republic

1,276

2,603

4,354

5,173

4,913

Estonia

253

530

633

1,338

1,125

Georgia

129

237

329

563

609

Hungary

1,722

2,721

2,897

2,712

2,468

Kazakhstan

483

940

1,489

2,163

2,155

Kyrgyz Republic

28

94

275

568

445

Latvia

281

655

648

908

801

Lithuania

261

743

849

1,058

1,131

Poland

3,417

5,894

9,100

9,540

8,523

Moldova

86

170

298

450

366

Romania

447

1,071

1,897

2,636

2,330

Russian Federation

8,848

17,963

30,169

55,383

38,436

Slovak Republic

341

1,122

2,146

2,622

2,260

Tajikistan

3.8

25

35

25

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

561

3,078

4,134

5,470

4,750

Uzbekistan

0

0

40

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

Central/Eastern Europe

19,338

40,642

62,463

97,650

76,487

Andorra

Cyprus

533

988

1,611

1,771

1,439

Greece

4,564

3,045

3,401

4,001

3,537

Israel

3,733

3,780

4,725

5,583

6,244

Italy

18,169

26,774

26,908

28,857

24,417

Malta

224

311

309

397

359

Portugal

2,754

3,742

4,692

5,379

4,782

San Marino

Spain

7,710

15,175

16,930

17,969

17,347

Turkey

1,713

3,563

5,817

5,475

5,686

Balkan Countries20

1,618

3,128

5,245

5,539

4,844

Southern/Medit. Europe

41,018

60,506

69,638

74,971

68,655

Europe total

256,328

395,266 453,448 560,560 487,591

Source: (The World Bank, 2017; UNWTO, 2017a)

By individual average growth rate21in period 1995-2015in international tourism

expenditure there is the highest rate in Armenia (23.10 %), fol owed by Albania

(23.58 %), Kyrgyz Republic (23.07 %), Ukraine (16.87 %), Azerbaijan (15.09 %),

Latvia (13.65 %), Lithuania (12.17 %), Belarus (12.17 %), Estonia (11.797 %) and

Kazakhstan (10.437 %).

The highest portion of structure of al international tourism expenditure in

2015 has Germany (18.30 %) fol owed by United Kingdom (16.39 %), France

(9.65 %), Russian Federation (7.92 %), Italy (5.03 %), Belgium (4.35 %),

Netherlands (4.35 %), Switzerland (3.81 %), Spain (3.57 %) and Norway (3.52 %).

20 Detailed data about international arrivals in individual Balkan countries are presented in chapter 5 Balkan region

21 It is important to note that the international tourism receipts in 1995 in these countries was

extremely low than in 2015/2016 due to well known political and economic facts in those

regions of Europe.

41

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Iceland realized the highest tourism expenditure per departure in 201522 (US$

2,217.78 ), fol owed by Luxembourg (US$ 1979.44 ), Moldova (US$ 1,970.92),

Belgium (US$ 1949.05), France (US$ 1757,54), Tajikistan (US$ 1,562.50),

Belarus (US$ 1496,27), Switzerland (US$ 1359.83), Cyprus (US$ 1,285.97),

United Kingdom (US$ 1211.23), which is al above average income per arrival in

Europe (US$ 983.45).

In terms of balance among arrivals and departure (calculating in average in

period 1995-2016), there are positive scores (first ten countries) in France,

Spain, Italy, Turkey, Greece, Austria, Croatia, Andorra, Ireland and Montenegro;

and negative scores (first ten countries) in Germany, United Kingdom, Poland,

Hungary, Sweden, Netherlands, Russian Federation, Finland, Switzerland and

Portugal.

Looking at balance among international tourism receipts and expenditure

(calculating in average in period 1995-2015), there are positive scores (first ten

countries) in Spain, Turkey, Italy, France, Greece, Austria, Portugal, Croatia,

Hungary and Czech Republic; and negative scores (first ten countries) in

Germany, United Kingdom, Russian Federation, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands,

Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Kazakhstan.

Concerning these data it could mean that positive scored countries are more

receptive than source tourist destinations and vice versa.

22 Ibidem

42

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

4 CHINA

4.1 General economic information

China is the fastest growing economy in the world by the growth of the gross

domestic product. In Statistic report (Statista The Statistics portal, 2018) is

stated data about past, actual and future trend line of that growth on the base

of year-on-year change. In 2010 the growth rate was 10.61 %, in 2011 9.46 %,

in 2012 and 2013 7.7 %, in 2014 7.3 %, in 2015 6.9 % and in 2016 growth rate

was 6.7 %. The growth rate was projected in 2017 6.2 % and in 2018, 2019,

2020 and 2021 6 % per each year. In this report is forecasted that average

annual growth rate of the gross domestic product wil be in period 2015-2020

7 %, in the period 2021-2025 5.9 % and in period 2016-2030 5 % which is

considerably lower than 9.9 % in period 1995-2010 and 8.6 % in period 2011-

2015.

Looking at the distribution of consumer income groups (income group > USD

30,000) by countries in Asian region in period 2010-2030 it could be noticed

the some changes.

43

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 7: Distribution of Consumer Income Groups in Asia in period 2010-2030

Source: (Euromonitor International, 2018b)

As it is presented, China is projected to make the greatest shift from 20 % to

more than 50 % share in income distribution in 2030.

Another point of view is household consumption (The medium income segment

household “C”: USD 15,000 ≤ C < USD 45,000) in China concerning the leisure

and recreation in period 2017-2022.

44

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 8 Household spending on Leiusure and Recreation, Current Prices (in

bil ion USD)

Source: (Euromonitor International, 2018a)

The stated household consumption which could be related to travel industry

shows significant growth and points on long-term orientation to the greater

need for consumption for leisure and recreation products.

This observation points on expected slow-down of the Chinese economy in the

future period in one hand, but with stable growth in consumption on leisure

and recreation product in other hand, which sign on some consequences on

outbound tourism flows which wil be discussed later (Section 7: Forecast).

45

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

4.2 Review of Chinese outbound tourism

Next figure (Figure 9: Border crossings from Mainland China in mil ions 2000-

2016) presents border crossing from Mainland China in period 2000-2016.

Figure 9: Border crossings from Mainland China in mil ions 2000-2016

Source:(China National Tourism Administration, 2016;Arlt, 2016;Arlt & Deng-Westphal, 2017)

46

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

It is very clear that cross boarding of Chinese tourists growing up and strong

influence on world tourism flows with the observation from the previous

chapter concerning economic trends in the future period.

Regarding to Hotels report (Hotels.com, 2016), it could be noted that the most

popular countries/regions for Chinese travelers from Mainland China in 2015

were United States, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea,

France, Italy and United Kingdom and most popular cities in same year, were

Hong Kong, Bangkok, Phuket, Tokyo, Taipei, Las Vegas, New York, Seoul, Los

Angeles and Chiang Mai. As it could be seen European countries are in the

lower part of the preferred list and on the other list there are not any European

cities.

In same report (Ibid) is suggested that most popular shopping destinations

were Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Macau; for local gastronomy

the most popular were Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia;

regarding resort/beach the most popular were Maldives, Australia, Japan, Fiji

and Hong Kong; most popular destinations for backpacking were Australia,

Hong Kong, Japan, Cambodia and Macau; for adventure the most popular

destinations were Australia, Cambodia, Japan, India and Nepal; the most

popular destination for local culture exploration were Japan, Australia, India,

Cambodia and Brunei. The most popular destinations for sightseeing were

Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Maldives, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand,

Macau, Malaysia and France. As it is seen, European countries are not among

the most popular, except France (Ibid).

The most valued criteria for Chinese travelers in choosing destinations are(Ibid):

safety (18 %), historical sites (14 %), cuisine (8 %), ease of visa application (7 %),

value for money (7 %), shopping (6 %), reputation (6 %), political situation (6 %),

climate (5 %), good public transport (3 %), local festivals (3 %),quality of

accommodations (3 %), hospitality of locals (3 %), hygiene (2 %), currency (2 %),

47

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

inspired by drama/film (2 %), nightlife (2 %), medical facilities (1 %) and sports

event (1 %) (Ibid).

In this report (Ibid) is indicated that Chinese travelers spend in average US$

3,455 on travel per year and that is ca. 25 % of their yearly income (US$

14,610). The Chinese travelers born post 60s have highest yearly income (US$

17,750) and spend in average US$ 4,577 on travel per year. Chinese travelers

spend in average, beyond hotel (local expense) US$ 306 and in hotel US$ 130.

The most preferred type of hotel is independent hotel with local flavor (34 %),

international chain hotel (32 %), Chinese style hotel (16 %), boutique hotel (10

%), and eco friendly hotel (8 %). The most important hotel facilities for Chinese

travelers are Internet access (23 %), restaurant (21 %), room service (14 %), in-

room movies (9 %), shops (6 %), gym, business centre, swimming pool (5 %),

spa, casino/gaming area, bar (3 %), The most wanted type of digital equipment

which are used by Chinese travelers are smart phone (84 %), digital camera (54

%), tablet computer (50 %), laptop (22 %), Wi-Fi dongle (8 %), feature phone (7 %)

and e-readers (5 %). The main reasons for travel for Chinese tourists are leisure

(93 %), business (40 %), visiting friends and relatives (16 %), cruise (14 %),

education (6 %) and beauty treatment (5 %). Five main activities for Chinese

travelers during holiday are dining (56 %), sightseeing (56 %), shopping (42 %),

resort/beach (32 %) and eco/green tours (27 %). Five main source of

information were online accommodation websites (44 %), friends & col eagues

(44 %), travel guides (43 %), online review sites (43 %) and travel agents (42 %).

Chinese travelers most preferred to book his travel through online travel agent

(74 %), hotel (16 %) and travel agency (10 %) (Ibid).

By this report there are five market segments concerning Chinese travelers such

as detailed explorers, cautious connectors, experience seekers, indulgers, basic

pleasure seekers ranged by size on market (Ibid).

In another report which has been made by Resonance Consultancy Ltd

(Resonance Consultancy Ltd., 2016), is also stated the preferable list of

destinations visited by Chinese travel in 2015 such as Hong Kong & Taiwan,

48

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Thailand, France, Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Italy, South Korea,

Spain and Germany. There are more European countries on this list in

comparison to the previous report. The most popular activities during the

holiday are sightseeing, cultural experiences, food, shopping, entertainment,

adventure sports and wel ness. September, April, February and July are the most

wanted months for Chinese to travel (Ibid).

Top sightseeing spots are Musée du Louvre (France), La Tour Eiffel (France),

Victoria Harbour (Hong Kong, China), Victoria Peak (Hong Kong, China), Ocean

Peak (Hong Kong, China), The Grand Palace (Thailand), La Sagrada Familia

(Spain), Cathédrale Notre-Dame de Paris (France) The Stars Avenue (Hong Kong,

China) and La Seine (France) (Ibid).

The most interesting shopping segments are the mal , luxury shopping,

cultural/outdoor shopping chains, outlet shopping and tobacco/alcohol.

Average spending per shoppers in Europe in first six months was US$ 1,112.

(Ibid).

The most popular hotels are Sheraton Macao Hotel, Cotai Central (Macau), The

Venetian Macao Resort Hotel (Macau), The Royal Pacific Hotel and Towers (Hong

Kong), Regal Riverside Hotel (Hong Kong), Harbour Plaza Metropolis (Hong

Kong), Lotte Hotel Seoul (Seoul), PJ Hotel Seoul (Seoul), Pullman Bangkok King

Power (Bangkok), Mandarin Hotel Managed by Centre Point (Bangkok) and The

Palmer House Hilton (Chicago). In the report is also observed that “top hotel

brands like Hilton and Marriott are attracting Chinese travelers with amenities

and services that make Chinese guests feel at home”, such as for example

Hilton’s Huanying program (“Welcome” in Mandarin) (Ibid).

In Expedia report (Expedia MediaSolutions, 2017) it was signed that Chinese

spend in their travel budget 18 % per hotel, 15 % per flight, 16 % per food, 11 %

per attractions/tours 15 %, per shopping 11 %, per alternative accommodations

1% and other 3 %.

49

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

One of the analysis in COTRI report (Arlt & Deng-Westphal, 2017) signs on

global y and Europe destinations which achieved the most growth and the most

drop of Chinese travelers in 2016 on YoY comparison. It points to growth in

Nepal (+56 %), Vietnam (+51 %), Chile, Egypt, South Africa, Philippines and

Mexico (+30 %). In Europe as mostly FIT destinations the most growth achieved

Georgia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Iceland, Norway, Poland and Serbia (+40 %)

(Ibid). Also, it is highlighted that “terrorist events and exaggerated news about

problems created by refuges kept some safety-conscious Chinese from

travel ing to Spain, Italy, France, Greece and Switzerland which al suffered

double-digit percent losses” (Ibid). Germany recorded smal drop down due to

reason that the most of Chinese travelers were business travelers. Turkey

recorded the highest drop in Chinese arrivals (-47 %) (Ibid).

There are few important notes about Chinese online travel market.

The major share on Chinese OTAs (online travel agencies) market, nearly 80 %,

have Ctrip (36 %), Qunar (30 %) and Alitrip (15 %) yet al other OTAs have 19 %

(Arlt & Deng-Westphal, 2017).

It is very often emphasized that the representation of social media types in

China is significantly different from the usual acceptability. Facebook

(facebook.com), Twitter (twitter.com), Tumblr (tumblr.com) and other popular

social media sites have limited access to China (Mainland China). Instead, they

developed a series of local social media such as Renren (renren.com), Sina

Weibo (weibo.com), and Tencent Weibo (t.qq.com) that cover almost 91% of

Chinese Internet users (Go-Globle.com).

The leading social media in China have a large number of users, such as Qzone

(600 mil ion users), Sina Weibo (500 mil ion users), Wechat (438 mil ion active

users at the monthly level) and Tencent QQ (800 mil ion active users per month

level) (“Social Media influences Chinese travel ers,” 2015).

The most important online information sources for Chinese travelers in trip

planning are official WeChat (48 %), WeChat Moments (47 %), specialized travel

50

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

websites (42 %), app push messages (37 %) and WeChat shares by travel

advisers (35 %) (The Momentum Group TMG Worldwide, 2016; in: Raspor &

Lacmanović, 2017).

In one already mentioned report by Resonance Consulting Ltd., it is claimed

that social media is the most important factor in the decision-making process

when choosing a tourist destination and that Chinese bloggers are powerful

means of sharing travel experiences. Particular importance to the social media

is given by independent travelers / FIT's (Free Independent Travelers) who use

platforms such as Weibo and WeChat with more than a bil ion users. Buying

sites Ctrip, Qyer, Quanr and Elong enabled young educated, technological y

high-visibility and global

travelers

to create their own travel

arrangements(Resonance Consultancy Ltd., 2016).

Some characteristics about Chinese outbound tourism is presented in fol owing

report through five facts(Lehr, 2017).

Firstly, number of Chinese tourists in one decade is more than tripled making

that one out of every ten international tourists is coming from China. The most

popular destinations are Thailand, Japan and South Korea, with raising interest

in other countries which relax their visa policies. Egypt, the UAE, Morocco and

Tunisia as popular destinations, among others, establish visa-free travel for

Chinese tourists.

Secondly, Chinese source market is young and growing. It is projected 234

mil ion departures in 2020. It is expected growth of “travel-hungry mil ennial

fresh from university and eager to explore the world is helping drive the surge”

(Ibid) and middle class in China. It is estimated that Chinese travel abroad when

household income reach US$35.000 (240.000 yean) and in last ten years 21

mil ion of households get on this level, with projections that 61 mil ion

households wil reach that line in 2023. Another fact is that only four percent of

Chinese population holds a passport.

51

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Thirdly, Chinese tourists spend more than any other tourists in world. In 2019

they wil spend US$ 264 mil ion, which is in size of Finland’s economy and

larger than Greece’s. Half of spending budget is aimed to shopping activities

mostly on luxury goods.

Fourthly, Chinese tourists change behavioral pattern away from shopping.

Travel programs based on longer trips, with museums visits, spa packages and

natural sights become more popular such as “High-End Travel around the World

for 80 Days” trip. Another trip which is very popular is Antarctic, visited by one-

third of luxury travelers. Business leaders promote adventure travel such as

Mount Everest, including “China Vanke Founder and Chairman Wang Shi,

Antaeous Group Executive President Wang Qiuyang, Sohu Inc. CEO and

Chairman Zhang Chaoyang, and Beijing Zhongkun Investment Group Co.

Founder and Chairman Huang Nabo” (Ibid).

Fifthly, tourism companies are stil not quite ready for Chinese travelers. For

example, “most American museums have yet to offer Chinese speaking guides

or even self-guided tours narrated by native Chinese speaker” (Ibid).It is

suggestion that in hotels could be offered, for instance, Union Pay terminals in

order to attract more Chinese tourists. Another emerging segment is young

Chinese business travelers with projections that 74 mil ion wil graduate col ege

in the next decade. Unique experiences such as music tourism, themed

adventure trips could bring the next generation of Chinese travelers.

In new Sabre Asia Pacific report “The Evolving Chinese Travel er” (Goh, 2017;

(Toh, 2017)it is emphasized some of the key findings about behavior of

Chinese travelers.

Almost 90 % of Chinese travelers have sufficient fund for travel and want to

travel more frequently in comparison to the period five year ago. Additional

drivers for more travel ing are “higher disposable income (20 %), technologies

making travel more convenient (17 %) and easy access to relevant travel

information (15 %)” (Ibid).

52

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The travel motivations of Chinese travelers are due to relax (25 %), to have

good time with friends or family (22 %), to seek a better understanding of

foreign cultures (17 %), to self-discovery (10 %), for an adventure (9 %), due to

religious purposes/pilgrimage (8 %), business purposes (8 %) and others (1 %).

There are two main attitudes of modern Chinese travelers concerning travel: 49

% of them understand travel as means of personal improvement and 51 % see it

as the new form of social currency. This new form of social currency means that

travel becomes a way to connect and build stronger emotional bonds (57 %) and

mod to enrich life experiences sharing it with friends and relatives (56 %) (Ibid).

In a new era of Chinese “mass tourism,” it becomes more important quality of

travel and personalized travel experiences.

The flexibility of independent planning is more often request which mean that

74 % of respondents stated that they are ready to spend time and energy to

plan their journey (Ibid).

The key planning preferences of Chinese travelers are joint planning with

external support (36 %), rely on myself with some external support (24 %), rely

solely on myself (22 %), rely on external support with some inputs for me (12 %)

and rely solely on external support (6 %) (Ibid).

In travel planning process, Chinese travelers are looking at the support and

information from travel agencies for more information on local culture and

history on destinations (64 %), more information on famous local attractions

and places to visit (56 %) and more relevant and personalized travel information

(52 %); from airline flight and travel details that can be easily accessed from

airports and local destinations (55 %); on demand access to customer services

and information (37 %) and streamlined booking service e.g. one-stop portal

(35 %); from hotel/accommodation services personalized services (44 %), on

demand access to customer service and information (43 %) and more

opportunities for cultural exchange e.g. cultural immersion through

accommodations (Ibid).

53

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

4.3 Viza sistem

4.3.1 Visa requirements for Chinese citizens

In this chapter the visa requirements of Chinese citizens is discussed, with the

right of abode in Mainland China, as wel as Visa requirements for Chinese

citizens of Hong Kong and Visa requirements for Chinese citizens of Macau for

the visa requirements of Chinese citizens with the right of abode in Hong Kong

and Macau respectively. Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens for visa

requirements for travelers from the Republic of China, too (Taiwan) (Wikipedia,

2017b).

Visa requirements for Chinese citizens are administrative entry restrictions

imposed for citizens of China by the authorities of other states. According to

the January 1st 2017 Henley visa restrictions index, holders of a Chinese

passport are granted visa free or visa on arrival access to 51 countries and

territories, ranking the Chinese passport 85th in the world (tied with the

Bhutanese, Chadian, Malian and Rwandan passports). The Ministry of Foreign

Affairs of the People's Republic of China, however, listed Chinese citizens as

having visa-free or visa on arrival access to 58 countries and territories as of

November 22, 2016 (Figure 10: Visa requirements for Chinese citizens). Before

February 2014, Chinese immigration authorities did not general y al ow

mainland Chinese citizens to board outbound flights without a valid visa for the

destination country even if the destination country granted a visa on arrival to

Chinese passport holders unless the exit was approved by the Ministry of Public

Security. Exceptions were possible if the traveler had a third country's visa and

a connecting flight from the destination country to the third country (Wikipedia,

2017b).

54

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 10: Visa requirements for Chinese citizens

Source:(Wikipedia, 2017b)

4.3.2 Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens

Visa requirements for Taiwanese passport holders are administrative entry

restrictions by the authorities of other states placed on nationals of Republic of

China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan. Although the ROC has only one type

of nationality under its nationality law, its nationals' right of abode in Taiwan is

based on whether they have established household registration in Taiwan,

hence ROC nationals are divided into two categories: nationals with household

registration ("NWHRs"), with right of abode in Taiwan; and nationals without

household registration ("NWOHRs"), without right of abode in Taiwan. Only

NWHRs are entitled to a National Identification Card, and the National ID

number is imprinted on the passport's biodata page to signify the holder's

status as an NWHR. Holders of such passports can travel to more countries and

territories without visas than holders of passports without National ID number,

as NWOHRs using ROC passports to enter Taiwan require an entry permit and

are subject to immigration controls(Wikipedia, 2017c).

55

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Taiwanese passport is one of the five passports with the most improved rating

global y since 2006 in terms of number of countries that its holders may visit

without a visa. As of 1th January 2017, nationals of Republic of China with rights

of abode in Taiwan had visa-free or visa on arrival access to 134 countries and

territories, ranking the ordinary Taiwan passport 31st in terms of travel

freedom (tied with Costa Rican and Vatican passports) according to the Henley

visa restrictions index. The Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however,

listed 164 countries with visa-free or visa on arrival access, which included a

large number of countries requiring pre-arrival documentations such as

invitations or visa approval letters (such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and

Vietnam). Such countries are not considered as providing visa-free or visa-on-

arrival access, since the visa is usual y approved before arrival and during the

process of obtaining such documentations (Figure 11: Visa requirements for

Taiwanese citizens). The graph below only lists those countries which provide

visa-free or visa on arrival without additional documentations prior to travel ing

as per international-accepted definitions (Wikipedia, 2017c).

Figure 11: Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens

Source: (Wikipedia, 2017c)

56

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5 BALKAN REGION

5.1 General data

Not with standing some countries’ apprehension to be subscribed under the

»Balkan« label, the countries of former Yugoslavia together with few

neigbouring countries are frequently lumped together to an entity cal ed »The

Balkans«. This is particularly true in the case of Asian tour operaters. Although

the region has some common historic traces, the characteristics of destinations,

the development of tourism sector as wel as the overal infrastructure differ

profundly.

For the purpose of this report, it wil be used determination »Selected countries

of Balkan region« which includes: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia,

Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Serbia and Kosovo which in general means

the countries of former Yugoslavia plus Albania.

By using a few indicators such as large scale privatization, smal scale

privatization, governance and enterprise restructuring, price liberalization,

trade and foreign exchange system and competition policy, in report made by

TuTech Innovation GmbH/Hamburg University of Technology (TuTech

Innovation GmbH/Hamburg University of Technology, 2017) in purpose for

Workshop in Montenegro in 2017, there are several important notes about

economic situation in West Balkan (WB) countries.

The country with the highest transition rate is Croatia, fol owed by Macedonia,

Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

The highest GDP per capita in 2015 is also in Croatia (USD 11,535), than in

Montenegro (USD 6,406), Serbia (USD 5,235), Macedonia (USD 4,852), Bosnia

and Herzegovina (USD 4,249), Albania (USD 3,945) and Kosovo (USD 3,561).

Growth rate GDP in 2015 in comparison to 2014, is the highest in Kosovo (3.9

%), than in Macedonia (3.7 %), Montenegro (3.2 %), Bosnia and Herzegovina (3.0

%), Albania (2.8 %), Croatia (1.6 %)

57

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Unemployment rate in these countries is very high in comparison to EU average

unemployment rate (10.2 % in 2014). In 2014 the highest unemployment rate is

in Kosovo (35.3 %), fol owed by Bosnia and Herzegovina (27.9 %), Serbia (22.2

%), Montenegro (19.1 %), Croatia (16.7 %) and Albania (16.1 %). The

unemployment rate of young people in these countries is much higher (30 – 58

%).

Measuring the social aspect of the development of country (health and lifetime,

level of education and standard of living) through the human development

index (0 to 1) it is stated the highest value for Croatia, and the lowest value for

Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The highest proportion of the population

below national poverty line is in Kosovo and Macedonia and the lowest

proportion is in Montenegro. Measuring the deviation of income through Gini

Index it is stated that it highest unequal distribution of income in Macedonia

and the lowest unequal distribution of income in Serbia and Albania.

Foreign direct investment net inflow, in 2015, is the highest in Serbia (USD

2.345.2 mil ion), than in Albania (USD 981.5 mil ion), Montenegro (USD 699.7

mil ion), Kosovo (USD 360.3 mil ion), Bosnia and Herzegovina (USD 267.3

mil ion), Macedonia (USD 192.7 mil ion) and Croatia (USD 159.0 mil ion). The

main investors were Austria, Netherland and Greece, mainly investing in

industry, trade and communication structures

(TuTech Innovation

GmbH/Hamburg University of Technology, 2017).

Yugoslavia was the freest of the communist states: while large industry was

nationalized, Tito’s system al owed for smal businesses to take place. This

experience with market economy benefited Yugoslavs when Eastern Europe’s

communist regimes eventual y fel . And even during the communist era,

Yugoslavia remained a popular tourist destination, keeping its standards more

in line with the West than the Soviet states (“Understanding Yugoslavia: Why did

it break up in the 1990s?,” n.d.).

58

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Slovenia was the first Yugoslav republic to hold free elections, in the spring of

1990. The voters wanted the communists out — and their own independent

nation. Along with being the most ethnical y homogeneous of the Yugoslav

nations, Slovenia was also the most Western-oriented, most prosperous, and a

minimum of geographical y isolated (“Understanding Yugoslavia: Why did it

break up in the 1990s?,” n.d.). Border between Slovenia and Italy is renowned as

one of the most open borders. On the territory of former Yugoslavia in two

fol owing decades, there was the process of establishing the new political

reality through civil war and imposing political solutions by the international

community, which was ended by the proclamation of independence of Croatia,

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo.

Yugoslavia’s rich cultural heritage and natural resources had very high tourism

potency.

Three years before the col apse in 1991there was recorded record of arrivals

with 8,907,000 foreign tourist who passed 52,299,000 night (Gosar, 1989), and

in 1985 there were 8,450,000 international arrivals in Yugoslavia (Kobašić,

1987).

In 1989, Yugoslavia achieved total tourism turnover of 20.5 mil ion tourists and

100.3 mil ion overnight stays, out of which 42.4% were made by foreign

tourists. That year, Yugoslavia ranked in the top 25 tourist countries (Hristov,

2014). Most foreign tourists go to coastal places (almost two thirds of al

tourists); sustainably fewer go to republic and provincial administrative centres,

winter sports and mountain resorts, spas, and other tourist areas. In 1985 the

fol owing pattern was observed (Gosar, 1989).

In 2016, al countries of former Yugoslavia together23 recorded 21.154.710

international arrivals (UNWTO, 2017b), but if it is excluded mutual visitation it

was realised 17.994.547 arrivals and 94,358,164 overnights (Republika

Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of

23 Slovenia, Croatia, B&H, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia.

59

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika

Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i

Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika

Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017)

Looking in general in al countries of former Yugoslavia + Albania (Selected

countries of Balkan region) it could be stated the positive tourism flows.

One point of view is relation between the number of international arrivals and

number of inhabitants and intensity of arrivals per km2.

In next table (Table 11: Selected countries of Balkan region by international

tourist arrivals per inhabitant and per km2 in 2016) are presented data about it.

Table 11: Selected countries of Balkan region by international tourist arrivals

per inhabitant and per km2 in 2016

International

Arrivals

Arrivals per

Country

arrivals

Population

Area (sq km) per capita

sq km

Croatia

13,809,000

4,170,600

55,960 3.311034 246.765547

Montenegro

1,662,000

622,781

13,450 2.668675 123.568773

Slovenia

3,032,000

2,064,845

20,140 1.468391 150.546177

Albania

4,070,000

2,876,101

27,400 1.415110 148.540146

Macedonia

510,000

2,081,206

25,220 0.245050

20.222046

Bosnia and

Herzegovina

777,000

3,516,816

51,200 0.220938

15.175781

Serbia

1,281,000

7,057,412

87,460 0.181511

14.646696

Kosovo

83,710

1,816,200

10,887 0.046091

7.688987

Source: (UNWTO, 2017a; (The World Bank, 2017a); The World Bank, 2017)

It could be seen that in Croatia, Montenegro and Slovenia there are the most

tourists per inhabitant and in Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro there is the

highest intensity of tourists per km2. And in opposite in Kosovo, Serbia and

Bosnia and Herzegovina there are the smal est number of tourists per

inhabitant and in some countries there is the greatest dispersion of tourists per

km2. These data points are by overal intensity of tourism industry and actual

problem of sustainability of tourist destinations.

60

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

With fol owing data is presented overview of general international tourism flows

in countries of West Balkan (Table 12: International tourist arrivalsin selected

countries of Balkan region (in mil ions of tourists).

Table 12: International tourist arrivalsin selected countries of Balkan region (in

mil ions of tourists)

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Croatia

6,20

8,50

9,80

11,60 12,68 13,81

Albania

0,32

0,75

2,19

3,34

3,78

4,07

Slovenia

1,10

1,60

1,90

2,41

2,70

3,03

Montenegro

0,07

0,70

1,09

1,35

1,56

1,66

Serbia

0,24

0,73

0,68

1,03

1,13

1,28

B&H

0,17

0,21

0,39

0,54

0,68

0,77

Macedonia

0,22

0,20

0,26

0,42

0,49

0,51

Kosovo

0,03

0,06

0,08

0,08

Source: (UNWTO, 2017c)

Not suprisingly, Croatia is the leading destination in the region according to the

number of tourists as wel as income generated by tourism (Table 13:

International tourism receipts in selected countries of Balkan region (in bil ion

USD). It is fol owed by other countries with access to the Adriatic sea: Albania,

Slovenia and Montenegro. However, in comparison to Croatiathese countries

have substantial y less tourist arrivals and more modest income from tourism.

These are fol owed by landlocked countries of Serbia, B&H, Macedonia and

Kosovo. Although the access to the sea and coastal tourism stil plays an

important role in the destination attractivness in this area, countries without

access to the sea (e.g. Serbia) are catching up fast.

61

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 13: International tourism receipts in selected countries of Balkan region

(in bil ion USD)24

Country

2000

2005

2010

2014

2015

2016

Croatia

2,80

7,50

7,60

9,87

8,83

9,63

Slovenia

1,00

1,80

2,60

2,73

2,32

2,42

Albania

1,62

1,70

1,50

1,69

Serbia

0,03

0,31

0,80

1,14

1,04

1,15

Montenegro

0,27

0,73

0,91

0,90

0,95

B&H

0,23

0,53

0,59

0,71

0,66

0,72

Macedonia

0,04

0,09

0,19

0,29

0,27

0,28

Source: (UNWTO, 2017c)

According to achieved international tourism receipts the highest value in 2016

is recorded in Croatia, Slovenia and Albania, but looking at receipt per arrival

the highest ratio is in Bosnia and Herzegovina (US$ 935.06), Montenegro (US$

742.19), Croatia (US$ 697.32) and Serbia (US$ 692.77); and the smal est rate is

realized in Macedonia (US$ 549.02), Albania (US$ 557.76) and Slovenia (US$

594.599. Al countries record growth in receipts through the observed period

which is in line with arrivals. In general economic context it is interesting to

note that the highest international tourism receipts per capita is realized in

Montenegro (US$ 3,885.80), Croatia (US$ 2,309.02) and Slovenia (US$ 818.46)

and the lowest receipts is achieved in Serbia (US$ 39.67), Bosnia and

Herzegovina (US$ 204.73) and Albania (US$ 399.85). In Macedonia is realized

US$ 456.47 international tourism receipts per capita in 2016. This economical

context could point to the level of impact of the tourism industry in those

societies.

24 There is no data for Kosovo

62

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2 Chinese tourists in overal international tourism flows

in selected countries of Balkan region

In the next few subchapters the share of Chinese outbound tourism in overal

international tourism flows in selected countries of Balkan wil be presented,

with some differences in the period of observation due to lack of data in some

countries. Also, the growth index wil be presented with purpose to point the

direction and intensity in the change of Chinese tourism flows. In some

countries, there wil be presented the dispersion of arrivals on monthly bases,

as one of the indicators of Chinese tourist’s behavior in concerning the

preferable period of going on holiday.

5.2.1 Albania

In Albania (Table 14: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign

tourists in Albania between 2000 and 2016), there was a period of very close

political relationship with China, during the Enver Hoxha era (former leader of

Albanian Communist Party) which had some implications also on present

Chinese tourism flows.

63

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 14: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Albania

between 2000 and 2016

Chinese

Chinese

tourists

tourists

base

Foreign

Chinese

China’s

base

share

tourist

tourists

Foreign

Chinese

tourists

index

index

length of

length of

tourists

tourists

share

2003

2003

stay

stay

Arrivals

317,149

379

2000

3.06

Accommodations

971,269

Arrivals

354,000

331

2001

2.71

Accommodations

957,882

Arrivals

470,574

688

2002

3.97

Accommodations

1,869,225

Arrivals

558,057

562

2003

1.93

Accommodations

1,079,520

Arrivals

645,409

1,189

2004

2.65

Accommodations

1,708,436

Arrivals

747,837

1,233

0.165%

1.00

2005

2.28

1.70

Accommodations

1,705,593

2,096

0.123%

1.00

Arrivals

937,038

1,005

0.107%

0.82

0.65

2006

2.16

1.70

Accommodations

2,022,812

1,709

0.084%

0.82

0.69

Arrivals

1,126,514

880

0.078%

0.71

0.47

2007

2.57

1.70

Accommodations

2,891,946

1,496

0.052%

0.71

0.42

Arrivals

1,419,191

1,267

0.089%

1.03

0.54

2008

2.32

1.70

Accommodations

3,294,551

2,154

0.065%

1.03

0.53

Arrivals

1.855.634

1.347

0..073%

1.09

0.44

2009

2.62

1.70

Accommodations

4.853.197

2.290

0.047%

1.09

0.38

Arrivals

2,417,337

1,718

0.071%

1.39

0.43

2010

2.50

1.70

Accommodations

6,043,343

2,921

0.048%

1.39

0.39

Arrivals

2,932,132

1,967

0.067%

1.60

0.41

2011

2.62

1.70

Accommodations

7,675,287

3,344

0.044%

1.60

0.35

Arrivals

3,513,666

3,129

0.089%

2.54

0.54

2012

2.35

1.70

Accommodations

8,268,827

5,319

0.064%

2.54

0.52

Arrivals

3,255,988

3,961

0.122%

3.21

0.74

2013

1.82

1.51

Accommodations

5,932,521

6,000

0.101%

2.86

0.82

Arrivals

3,672,591

3,882

0.106%

3.15

0.64

2014

1.61

1.67

Accommodations

5,930,892

6,500

0.110%

3.10

0.89

Arrivals

4,131,242

4,307

0.104%

3.49

0.63

2015

1.88

1.63

Accommodations

7,766,735

7,000

0.090%

3.34

0.73

Arrivals

4,735,511

4,800

0.101%

3.89

0.61

2016

1.80

1.58

Accommodations

8,523,920

7,600

0.089%

3.63

0.73

Source: (Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017)

In 2015 and 2016 it was recorded 4,307 and 4,800 arrivals and 7,000 and

7,600 overnights of Chinese travelers in Albania which is almost the smal est

64

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

number of arrivals and overnight comparing to other observed countries. This

is only 1.46-1.55 % of total arrivals and 1.72-1.71 % of total overnights,

regardless previous statement about the long-term relationship between

Albania and China.

The share of Chinese tourists in overal international tourism flow is among

0.045 % to 0,165 % through observed period, but the index of growth is above

3 points. This point is about the number of Chinese arrivals that wil be in rise

in future but stil as very smal market segment. Length of staying of Chinese

tourists is smal er than 2 days (from 1.58 to 1.70) which is less than a length of

staying of foreign tourists in total (from 1.61 to 2.65) except in 2000 (3.06

days) and 2002 (3.95 days). In both cases, the length of staying has been

reducing from 2000 to 2016. The length of staying could, in general, indicate

the main purposes of visiting in sense that longer staying inclines to holiday

and shorter to business reasons which are in case of Albania may have meant

that business trips or short visits to other destinations are prevailing.

5.2.2 Bosnia and Herzegovina

In Bosnia and Herzegovina (Table 15: Number of arrivals and accommodations

of foreign tourists in B&H between 2003 and 2016), it was recorded 9,948 and

13,266 arrivals and 12,779 and 16,592 overnights of Chinese travelers in 2015

and 2016 which is 3.38-4.29 % of total arrivals and 3.15-3.74 % of total

overnights and that is lower share than most other observed countries.

65

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 15: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in B&H

between 2003 and 2016

Foreign

Chinese

China’s

tourist

tourists

Foreign

Chinese

tourists

Chinese tourists

length of

length of

tourists

tourists

share

base index 2003

stay

stay

Arrivals

169,860

315

0.185%

2003

2.46

1.51

Accommodations

417,574

477

0.114%

Arrivals

194,425

277

0.142%

0.88

2004

2.45

1.64

Accommodations

476,230

454

0.095%

0.95

Arrivals

217,273

281

0.129%

0.89

2005

2.23

2.51

Accommodations

484,545

706

0.146%

1.48

Arrivals

255,764

182

0.071%

0.58

2006

2.32

2.13

Accommodations

594,380

387

0.065%

0.81

Arrivals

306,452

497

0.162%

1.58

2007

2.27

2.04

Accommodations

694,507

1,015

0.146%

2.13

Arrivals

321,511

534

0.166%

1.70

2008

2.24

2.48

Accommodations

718,750

1,322

0.184%

2.77

Arrivals

310,942

478

0.154%

1.52

2009

2.16

1.95

Accommodations

671,128

934

0.139%

1.96

Arrivals

365,454

770

0.211%

2.44

2010

2.11

1.63

Accommodations

772,754

1,255

0.162%

2.63

Arrivals

391,945

2,244

0.573%

7.12

2011

2.13

1.73

Accommodations

836,005

3,874

0.463%

8.12

Arrivals

438,585

3,369

0.768%

10.70

2012

2.12

1.45

Accommodations

931,081

4,880

0.524%

10.23

Arrivals

528,579

5,642

1.067%

17.91

2013

2.10

1.26

Accommodations

1,108,905

7,121

0.642%

14.93

Arrivals

536,354

6,549

1.221%

20.79

2014

2.03

1.46

Accommodations

1,088,472

9,573

0.879%

20.07

Arrivals

678,271

9,948

1.467%

31.58

2015

2.10

1.28

Accommodations

1,425,761

12,779

0.896%

26.79

Arrivals

776,889

13,266

1.708%

42.11

2016

2.11

1.25

Accommodations

1,641,421

16,592

1.011%

34.78

Source: (Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017)

Chinese tourists took part in overal international arrivals and accommodations

in the range from 0.065 % to 1.71 %, in period 2003-2016, which is rather high

according to other observed countries. Index of growth is enormously high,

34, 78 points in 2016 in relation to the base year 2003, the highest in

66

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

comparison to other selected countries of Balkan region. This sign on the very

strong position of Chinese market segment in future.

In observed period Chinese tourist realized the length of staying 1.25 days in

minimum and 2.48 in maximum which is less than a length of staying of

foreign tourists in total (2.03 days in minimum and 2.46 days in maximum).The

length of staying is slightly higher than in Albania but lower than in other

observed countries an in both cases, the length of staying have been reducing

from 2000 to 2016.

During the period from 2008 to 2016 it could be observed that in general the

most visited month per year are May (2009, 2015), June (2012, 2016),

September (2008, 2011), October (2010, 2013, 2014) and November (2009)

with almost same number of arrivals as in most visited month in June (2010),

July (2011). This monthly dispersion of arrivals points on that the summer

season and postseason are an important period for visitation during the year

(Figure 12: The distribution of Chinese tourists in B&H according to a month of

arrival between 2008 and 2016).

67

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 12: The distribution of Chinese tourists in B&H according to a month of arrival between 2008 and 2016

Source: (Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017)

68

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2.3 Croatia

The data regarding Chinese tourist flows in Croatia (Table 16: Number of

arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Croatia between 2005 and

2016) is structured by resident destination such as Mainland China, SAR Hong

Kong, SAR Macao and Taiwan which is consistent with UNWTO data evidence

and this data presentation is done only in case of Croatia25.

In Croatia in 2015 and 2016, it was recorded 208,104 and 209,603 arrivals and

271,141 and 285,701 overnights of Chinese travelers which is the largest

number of arrivals and overnight comparing to other observed countries. This

is 70.66-67.81 % of total arrivals and 66.74-64.44 % of total overnights, which

is dominant share regarding total Chinese incoming.

Chinese tourists take a part in overal international tourism flow, with 0.069 %

to 1, 52 % in the observed period, realizing the index of growth at 15.9 points.

This very high index points that the number of Chinese arrivals wil be very

higher in future, but as in other observed countries, it is stil smal market

segment. Chinese tourists stay less than 2 days (in the range from 1.30 to 1.89

days) except in 2007 (2.39 days) and 2009 (2.09 days) which is much less than

a length of staying of foreign tourists in general (in the range from 5.66 to 5.19

days). Although in both cases, the length of staying have been reducing in the

observed period it could notice that there is smal er variation in case of foreign

tourists in general. This could indicate that Chinese tourists prefer shorter

holidays in Croatia than other foreign tourists due to combining arrangement of

visitation two or more destinations.

25This was possible due to that kind of evidence in Statistical Office of the Republic of Croatia.

69

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

In next few figures (Figure 13: The distribution of al Chinese tourists in Croatia

according to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016; Figure 14: The

distribution of al Chinese tourists from PRC in Croatia according to a month of

arrival between 2007 and 2016; Figure 15: The distribution of al Chinese

tourists from Hong Kong in Croatia according to a month of arrival between

2013 and 2016; Figure 16: The distribution of al Chinese tourists from Taiwan

in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2013 and 2016; Figure 17:

The distribution of al Chinese tourists from Macao in Croatia according to a

month of arrival between 2007 and 2016) are presented the distribution of

Chinese travelers in Croatia by month of arrival.

70

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 16: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Croatia between 2005 and 2016

Hong

Chinese Foreign PRC

Kong

Macao

Taiwan

Chinese

Hong

China’s tourists

tourist

tourists tourists tourists tourists tourists

Foreign

PRC

Kong

Macao

Taiwan

Chinese

tourists base in. length

length

length

length

length

length

tourists

tourists

tourists tourists tourists

tourists

share

2007

of stay

of stay

of stay

of stay

of stay

of stay

Arrivals

8,466,886

2005

5.43

Accommodations

45,986,517

Arrivals

8,658,876

2006

5.43

Accommodations

47,021,944

Arrivals

9,306,691

6,416

6,416

0.069%

2007

5.33

2.39

2.39

Accommodations

49,574,630

15,365

15,365

0.031%

Arrivals

9,415,105

6,375

6,375

0.068%

0.99

2008

5.38

1.89

1.89

Accommodations

50,625,522

12,018

12,018

0.024%

0.78

Arrivals

8,693,796

7,534

7,534

0.087%

1.17

2009

5.66

2.05

2.05

Accommodations

49,229,508

15,479

15,479

0.031%

1.01

Arrivals

9,110,742

15,479

15,479

0.170%

2.41

2010

5.60

1.50

1.50

Accommodations

50,992,321

23,143

23,143

0.045%

1.51

Arrivals

9,926,674

22,459

22,459

0.226%

3.50

2011

5.52

1.54

1.54

Accommodations

54,751,305

34,578

34,578

0.063%

2.25

Arrivals

10,369,226

43,249

43,249

0.417%

6.74

2012

5.55

1.48

1.48

Accommodations

57,522,137

64,092

64,092

0.111%

4.17

Arrivals

10,948,366

41,973

13,491

149

55,841

111,454

1.018%

6.54

2013

5.45

1.50

1.29

1.92

1.18

1.31

Accommodations

59,679,630

63,066

17,379

286

65,670

146,401

0.245%

4.10

Arrivals

11,622,961

61,215

14,449

186

72,187

148,037

1.274%

9.54

2014

5.28

1.46

1.28

1.87

1.15

1.29

Accommodations

61,323,572

89,462

18,482

347

83,178

191,469

0.312%

5.82

Arrivals

12,683,179

87,884

23,507

365

96,348

208,104

1.641%

13.70

2015

5.19

1.48

1.21

2.01

1.17

1.30

Accommodations

65,862,680 129,700

28,384

732 112,325

271,141

0.412%

8.44

Arrivals

13,808,532 102,044

23,693

328

83,538

209,603

1.518%

15.90

2016

5.23

1.51

1.33

1.58

1.19

1.36

Accommodations

72,193,352 154,391

31,570

518

99,222

285,701

0.396%

10.05

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

71

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 13: The distribution of all Chinese tourists in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

72

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Chinese tourists visit Croatia in largest number in May (2015), June (2009, 2016), July (2007), August (2011), September (2008), October (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014). The most preferred month is October which is in four years in the observed period the most visited month. It is clear that holiday season and postseason are an important period in a year for visiting Croatia and that is partly in accordance with Chinese travel behavior (Resonance Consultancy Ltd., 2016) concerning July, September and October.

73

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 14: The distribution of all Chinese tourists from PRC in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

74

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 15: The distribution of all Chinese tourists from Hong Kong in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2013 and 2016

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

Hong Kong tourist the most prefer to come in Croatia in June (2014, 2015, 2016) and in September (2013).

75

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 16: The distribution of all Chinese tourists from Taiwan in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2013 and 2016

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

Concerning Taiwan tourists, the preferable month is October in all observed period.

76

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 17: The distribution of all Chinese tourists from Macao in Croatia according to a month of arrival between 2007 and 2016

Source: (Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017)

Macao tourists come in the largest number in Croatia in May (2013, 2016), June (2014) and September (2015).

77

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2.4 Macedonia

Chinese tourists in Macedonia have realized 7,256 and 6,565 arrivals and

10,656 and 9,814 overnights in 2015 and 2016 (Table 17: Number of arrivals

and accommodations of foreign tourists in Macedonia between 2010 and

2016).

Looking at the total Chinese incoming this is 2.46-2.12 % of arrivals and 2.62-

2.21 % of overnights, which is lower than in Bosnia and Herzegovina but higher

than in Albania.

Concerning overal international arrivals and accommodations the share of

Chinese tourists vary in the range from 0.269 % to 1.286 % for arrivals, and in

the range from 0.287 % to 0.931 % for overnight in observed period. Index of

growth is 9.33 points in 2016 regarding the base year 2003 which indicate the

very good position of Chinese market segment in future.

Chinese tourist realized, in observed period, the length of staying 1.47 days in

minimum and 2.42 in maximum which is less than a length of staying of

foreign tourists in total (2.03 days in minimum and 2.31 days in maximum).

The length of staying is higher than in Albania and Croatia but slightly lower

than in Bosnia and Herzegovina. As in other observed countries, the length of

staying regarding Chinese and foreign tourists in general, have been reducing

from 2000 to 2016.

78

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 17: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in

Macedonia between 2010 and 2016

Chinese

Foreign Chinese

China’s

Chinese

tourists base tourist

tourists

Foreign

Chinese

tourists

tourists base share index length

length

tourists

tourists

share

index 2010

2010

of stay

of stay

Arrivals

197,216

2005

2.25

Accommodations

442,988

Arrivals

202,357

2006

2.19

Accommodations

442,845

Arrivals

230,080

2007

2.25

Accommodations

518,088

Arrivals

254,957

2008

2.30

Accommodations

587,447

Arrivals

259,204

2009

2.25

Accommodations

583,796

Arrivals

261,696

704

0.269%

1.00

1.00

2010

2.14

2.28

Accommodations

559,032

1602

0.287%

1.00

1.00

Arrivals

327,471

1,664

0.508%

2.36

1.89

2011

2.31

2.42

Accommodations

755,166

4,027

0.533%

2.51

1.86

Arrivals

351,359

2,828

0.805%

4.02

2.99

2012

2.31

1.58

Accommodations

811,746

4,478

0.552%

2.80

1.93

Arrivals

399,684

4,026

1.007%

5.72

3.74

2013

2.03

1.43

Accommodations

811,376

5,744

0.708%

3.59

2.47

Arrivals

425,314

4,517

1.062%

6.42

3.95

2014

2.17

1.53

Accommodations

922,513

6,919

0.750%

4.32

2.62

Arrivals

485,530

7,256

1.494%

10.31

5.56

2015

2.13

1.47

Accommodations 1,036,383

10,656

1.028%

6.65

3.59

Arrivals

510,484

6,565

1.286%

9.33

4.78

2016

2.06

1.49

Accommodations 1,054,017

9,814

0.931%

6.13

3.25

Source: (Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017)

The most popular months for visiting Macedonia by Chinese tourists are June

(2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016), July (2013), August (2010) and September

(2011) which points on summer season as important period for visitation

(Figure 18: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Macedonia according to a

month of arrival between 2010 and 2016).

79

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 18: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Macedonia according to a month of arrival between 2010 and 2016

Source: (Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017)

80

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2.5 Montenegro

The data (Table 18: Chinese tourists’ arrivals and accommodations in

Montenegro in 2014 and 2016) regarding Chinese tourists in Montenegro has

been col ected by Statistical Office of Montenegro (MONSTAT) since 2014,

which means that in observation could be included data from a few years

(2014, 2015 and 2016).

Table 18: Chinese tourists’ arrivals and accommodations in Montenegro in

2014 and 2016

Chinese

Chinese

Foreign

Chinese

Chinese

tourists

tourists

tourists’ tourists’

Foreign

Chinese

tourists’ base index base share length

length

tourist

tourists

share

2014

index 2014

of stay

of stay

Arrivals

797,071

6.31

2006

Accommodations

5,026,663

Arrivals

984,138

6.55

2007

Accommodations

6,443,485

Arrivals

1,031,212

6.76

2008

Accommodations

6,966,279

Arrivals

1,044.014

6.41

2009

Accommodations

6,695,674

Arrivals

1,087,794

6.41

2010

Accommodations

6,977,860

Arrivals

1,201,099

6.51

2011

Accommodations

7,818,803

Arrivals

1,264,163

6.44

2012

Accommodations

8,143,007

Arrivals

1,324,403

6.35

2013

Accommodations

8,414,215

Arrivals

1,350,297

7,932

0.59%

6.37

1.82

2014

Accommodations

8,596,656

14,432

0.17%

Arrivals

1,559,924

13,362

0.86%

1.68

1.46

6.61

1.36

2015

Accommodations 10,307,371

18,170

0.18%

1.26

1.05

Arrivals

1,662,121

11,894

0.72%

0.89

0.84

6.33

1.42

2016

Accommodations 10,528,475

16,901

0.16%

0.93

0.91

Source: (Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017)

81

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

In Montenegro during 2015 and 2016 arrived 13,362 and 11,894 Chinese

tourists who realized 18,170 and 16, 901 overnights which present 4.54-3.85

% of total arrivals and 4.47-3.81 % of total overnights in observed countries.

This is more Chinese tourists than in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and

Macedonia and less in other observed countries.

Looking at the overal international tourism flow, it could be noticed the share

of Chinese tourists in arrivals in the range from 0.59 % to 0.72 % and in

overnights in the range from 0.17 % to 0.16 % in the observed period. Index of

growth in arrivals in 2016 is 0.89 which presents the lowest parameter

concerning the other countries. This index has to be understood in the context

of length of the period of observation. In Montenegro, Chinese tourists stay

less than 2 days (in the range from 1.36 to 1.82 days) which is, as similar in

Croatia, much less than a length of staying of foreign tourists in general (in the

range from 6.31 to 6.76 days). The length of staying has been reducing in the

observed period in both cases which is same in al observed countries. The

great difference in length of staying among Chinese and foreign tourists in

general, sign on same observation, such as in Croatia, that Chinese probably

use combining arrangement of visitation two or more destinations.

The most of Chinese tourists visited Montenegro in May (2015), June (2016)

and October (2014) that is in line with other observed countries (Figure 19: The

distribution of Chinese tourists in Montenegro according to a month of arrival

between 2014 and 2016).

82

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 19: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Montenegro according to a month of arrival between 2014

and 2016

Source: (Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017)

83

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2.6 Kosovo

The number of Chinese arrivals and overnights in Kosovo is estimated26 in

observed period, due to lack of data. Statistical office of Kosovo col ected

information regarding Chinese tourists under category “other” (Table 19:

Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Kosovo between

2010 and 2016).

Table 19: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Kosovo

between 2010 and 2016

Foreign

Chinese

China’s

Chinese

Chinese tourists tourist

tourists

Foreign

Chinese

tourists

tourists

base base

share length of length

tourists

tourists

share

index 2010

index 2010

stay

of stay

Arrivals

24,616

2008

1.91

Accommodations

46,910

Arrivals

36,318

2009

2.09

Accommodations

76,042

Arrivals

34,382

20

0,058%

1.00

1.00

2010

2.22

1.75

Accommodations

76,394

35

0,046%

1.00

1.00

Arrivals

30,349

39

0,129%

1.95

2.21

2011

2.16

1.92

Accommodations

65,584

75

0,114%

2.14

2.50

Arrivals

48,790

62

0,127%

3.10

2.18

2012

1.86

1.77

Accommodations

90,968

110

0,121%

3.14

2.64

Arrivals

50,074

70

0,140%

3.50

2.40

2013

1.68

1.57

Accommodations

83,883

110

0,131%

3.14

2.86

Arrivals

61,313

75

0,122%

3.75

2.10

2014

1.66

1.60

Accommodations

102,066

120

0,118%

3.43

2.57

Arrivals

79,238

78

0,098%

3.90

1.69

2015

1.52

1.72

Accommodations

120,669

134

0,111%

3.83

2.42

Arrivals

83,710

110

0,131%

5.50

2.26

2016

1.57

1.60

Accommodations

131,785

176

0,134%

5.03

2.91

Source: (Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics, 2017)

In Kosovo arrived the smal est number of Chinese tourists in comparison to

other observed countries, which could be understood due to the, in general, the

26 Authors estimated the number of arrivals and overnights using_____________________?

84

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

lower international tourism flow also concerning the other observed countries.

The share of Chinese in international tourism flow is very smal , by 0.05 to 0.13

%. It is, also, assumed the high growth index, at 5.03 points, and good position

of Chinese market segment in future. The length of staying is determined by

general observation about Chinese tourist’s behavior concerning combining

arrangement, at 1.60 to 1.92 days.

5.2.7 Serbia

In Serbia during 2015 and 2016 there were 14.238 and 18.409 arrivals and

32.779 and 42.986 overnights of Chinese tourists which make 4.83-5.96 % of

total arrivals and 8.07-9.70 % of total overnights (Table 20: Number of arrivals

and accommodations of foreign tourists in Serbia between 2011 and 2016).

Serbia is on third place by number of Chinese tourists after Croatia and

Slovenia.

The share of Chinese tourists in the overal international tourism flow,

concerning arrivals is in the range from 0.45 % to 1.44 % and in overnights in

the range from 0.72 % to 1.57 % in the observed period, which is lower than in

Croatia but higher in comparison to other observed countries. Index of growth

in arrivals in 2016 is 5, 31 points which are rather a low index in comparison to

other observed countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Macedonia).

Chinese tourists in Serbia stay more than 2 and less than 3 days (in the range

from 2.30 to 3.43 days) which is the longest stay in comparison to other

observed countries and unlike other observed countries, Chinese stay the little

bit longer than foreign tourists in general. This length of staying could point

that Chinese tourist in Serbia probably find more motives to stay the little bit

longer.

85

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 20: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in Serbia

between 2011 and 2016

Chinese

Foreign

Chinese

Chinese

Chinese

tourists base tourists’

tourists’

Foreign

Chinese tourists’ tourists base share

index length of length

tourist

tourists

share

index 2011

2011

stay

of stay

Arrivals

696,045

2007

2.12

Accommodations 1,475,675

Arrivals

646,494

2008

2.16

Accommodations 1,398,887

Arrivals

645,022

2009

2.28

Accommodations 1,469,102

Arrivals

682,281

2010

2.13

Accommodations 1,452,156

Arrivals

764,164

3,470

0.454%

1.00

1.00

2011

2.15

3.43

Accommodations 1,640,354

11,895

0.725%

1.00

1.00

Arrivals

809,967

4,812

0.594%

1.39

1.31

2012

2.22

2.84

Accommodations 1,796,217

13,665

0.761%

1.15

1.05

Arrivals

921,768

5,783

0.627%

1.67

1.38

2013

2.16

2.43

Accommodations 1,988,393

14,047

0.706%

1.18

0.97

Arrivals

1,028,732

9,592

0.932%

2.76

2.05

2014

2.10

3.21

Accommodations 2,161,054

30,749

1.423%

2.59

1.96

Arrivals

1,132,221

14,238

1.258%

4.10

2.77

2015

2.13

2.30

Accommodations 2,409,680

32,779

1.360%

2.76

3.00

Arrivals

1,281,426

18,409

1.437%

5.31

3.16

2016

2.14

2.34

Accommodations 2,738,998

42,986

1.569%

3.61

3.46

Source:Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017

The monthly distribution of arrivals of Chinese tourists in Serbia shows that the

most visited months are June (2012, 2013), July (2011) and September (2014,

2015, 2016) which is in line with other observed countries and stated remarks

before (Figure 20: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Serbia according to a

month of arrival between 2011 and 2016).

86

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 20: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Serbia according to a month of arrival between 2011 and 2016

Source:Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017

87

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

5.2.8 Slovenia

The Chinese tourism flow in Slovenia is lower than in Croatia but higher than in

al other observed countries. In Slovenia during 2015 and 2016 arrived 37,234

and 44,464 Chinese tourists who spent 53,617 and 63,590 nights and that are

12.64-14.38 % of total arrivals and 13.20-14.34 % of total overnights in

observed countries (Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists

in Slovenia between 2005 and 2016).

The share of Chinese in overal international tourism flow varies in range from

0.113 to 1.524 % per arrivals and from 0.088 to 0.905 % per overnights in

observed period. The Chinese share in 2016 is in line with Croatia, lower than

in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and higher than in other observed countries.

Chinese arrivals rose up by the index of growth at 16.47 points which is only

lower than the index of growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. That sign on the

very strong position of Chinese market segment in future in comparison to

other observed countries. Chinese tourists in Slovenia stay in a range from 1.43

to 2.43 days, slightly less than a length of staying of a foreign tourist in general

(in the range from 2.41 to 2.83 days).

There is no great difference in length of staying among Chinese and foreign

tourists in general, such as the case in Croatia and Montenegro, which points

those Chinese tourists, have similar travel purpose as other foreign tourists

such as the case in other observed countries.

88

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Table 21: Number of arrivals and accommodations of foreign tourists in

Slovenia27 between 2005 and 2016

Foreign Chinese

China’s

Chinese

Chinese tourists tourist

tourists

Foreign

Chinese

tourists

tourists base base share index length

length

tourists

tourists

share

index 2005

2005

of stay

of stay

Arrivals

1,555,000

1,754

0,113%

1.00

1.00

2005

2.83

2.20

Accommodations 4,399,000

3,862

0,088%

1.00

1.00

Arrivals

1,617,000

2,615

0,162%

1.49

1.43

2006

2.78

1.86

Accommodations 4,489,000

4,874

0,109%

1.26

1.24

Arrivals

1,751,332

3,503

0,200%

2.00

1.77

2007

2.78

2.43

Accommodations 4,867,900

8,514

0,175%

2.20

1.99

Arrivals

1,957,691

4,887

0,250%

2.79

2.21

2008

2.73

2.06

Accommodations 5,351,282

10,090

0,189%

2.61

2.15

Arrivals

1,823,931

5,627

0,309%

3.21

2.74

2009

2.71

2.00

Accommodations 4,936,293

11,230

0,227%

2.91

2.59

Arrivals

1,869,106

8,205

0,439%

4.68

3.89

2010

2.67

1.87

Accommodations 4,997,031

15,348

0,307%

3.97

3.50

Arrivals

2,036,652

11,050

0,543%

6.30

4.81

2011

2.68

1.97

Accommodations 5,463,931

21,785

0,399%

5.64

4.54

Arrivals

2,120,763

15,208

0,717%

8.67

6.36

2012

2.68

1.54

Accommodations 5,676,273

23,411

0,412%

6.06

4.70

Arrivals

2,258,570

19,801

0,877%

11.29

7.77

2013

2.64

1.48

Accommodations 5,962,251

29,321

0,492%

7.59

5.60

Arrivals

2,410,824

23,827

0,988%

13.58

8.76

2014

2.53

1.51

Accommodations 6,090,409

35,915

0.590%

9.30

6.72

Arrivals

2,620,471

37,234

1.421%

21.23

12.60

2015

2.43

1.44

Accommodations 6,370,264

53,617

0.842%

13.88

9.59

Arrivals

2,918,436

44464

1.524%

25.35

13.51

2016

2.41

1.43

Accommodations 7,023,480

63,590

0.905%

16.47

10.31

Source: Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017.

27 Arrivals of tourists to an accommodation facility are defined with a number of persons

arriving to the accommodation facility and checking-in. Arrivals include all persons irrespective

of their age (including children whose accommodation is free of charge). Accommodations

denote every night which a tourist actually spends at an accommodation facility (overnight or

only spends some time there) or if only checked-in (person’s physical presence is not

necessary)(Slovenian Tourist Board, 2017).

89

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The preferable months to visit Slovenia (The distribution of Chinese tourists in

Slovenia according to a month of arrival between 2005 and 2016) regarding

Chinese tourists are July (2007, 2008, 2011), August (2009, 2010, 2013, 2014)

and September (2005, 2006, 2012, 2015, 2016). In case of Slovenia, the

dispersion of peak months is similar as in Serbia and Macedonia and rather

narrow in comparison to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro.

90

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 21: The distribution of Chinese tourists in Slovenia according to a month of arrival between 2005 and 2016

Source: Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017

91

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

92

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

6 EMERGENCE AND GROWTH OF CHINESE TOURISTS IN THE

REGION

The observation that “Chinese presence in the region was for a long time

limited to involvement in the programmes of scientific and educational

exchange between PRC and other socialist countries (before 1991) and to

economic migration after the fal of socialist regimes in the region (after 1991)”

(Chang & Rucker-Chang, 2011; in: Bofulin, Raspor, Stranjančević, Bulatović, &

Lacmanović, 2016), is quite true and point on long term process of approaching

the Chinese economy to Europe and to Balkan region special y.

In another view it is highlighted that “ from the Chinese venue point the region

is part of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which has grown in importance to

China’s foreign policy in recent years, especial y due to its connection to one of

the cornerstones of Chinese diplomacy – the New Silk Road initiative” (Pavlićević,

2015; in:Bofulin et al., 2016).

In context of cooperation among China and group of countries named as

Central and Eastern European Countries (PRC-CEE) it was established Tourism

Coordination Centre (TCC) in Budapest in May 2014, with main goal to develop

and promote the relations among China National Tourism Association (CNTA)

and 16 CEE countries. In this point CEE countries divided themselves in few

subgroups such as Balkan region, Visegrad region and Baltic region (COTRI,

2016 in: Bofulin et al., 2016). In Balkan region it was determined few strengths

such as novelty, Adriatic sea, diversity and past communist regimes and few

weakness such as restrictive visa regimes, smal number of direct flights,

inadequate services and lack of strong destination brand (Ibid).

In few publications are discussed some issues about Chinese travelers in

particular countries in West Balkan region such as preferences, characteristics

and trip motivation (Raspor, Lacmanović, Stranjančević, & Bulatović, 2016a),

tourist destination strength and opportunities (Stranjančević, Bulatović,

93

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Lacmanović, & Raspor, 2016), position of smal destinations at the large source

tourist market (Bofulin et al., 2016), factors of satisfaction (Bulatović,

Stranjančević, Lacmanović, & Raspor, 2016), using web applications for travel

planning (Raspor, Lacmanović, Stranjančević, & Bulatović, 2016b), economic

impact (Lacmanović & Raspor, 2016) and tourism as invisible part of export

(Raspor, Stranjančević, Bulatović, & Lacmanović, 2017).

Regarding Chinese tourist flow in the region, by far the most visited country is

Croatia with 209,603 arrivals and 285,781 overnight stays in 2016. According

to previous presented data countries that fol ow are Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia

and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo. Looking at the

absolute numbers al these countries are far behind Croatia. Interestingly,

Slovenia and Croatia had a comparable number of arrivals of Chinese tourists

until 2010 where there is a sharp rise in Chinese tourists traveling to Croatia.

On the other hand, Serbia had a relatively smal number of Chinese tourists

until very recently and exhibited high growth in the year 2014.

Concerning the relative numbers there is domination by Croatia which realized

almost 70 % of al Chinese arrivals, fol owing by Slovenia (14 %), Serbia (6 %),

Bosnia and Herzegovina (4.3 %), Montenegro (3.9 %), Macedonia (2.1 %), Albania

(1.5 %) and Kosovo (0.04 %).

In recent years, the share of Chinese tourists among al foreign tourists has

increased in al the selected countries except Montenegro, but as seen below

(Table 22: The trend of Chinese tourist’s arrivals – part 1) this increase was the

highest in Croatia, B&H and Republika Srbska. This rise in the last two countries

is somewhat unexpected. Further research would be needed to establish

whether this is an effect of the proximity of Croatia and a spil over effect or

there are any other reasons for this increase. In any case, this increase points to

a trend in the tourism sector that tourism stakeholders should be attentive to.

Moreover, as seen in the table, the share of Chinese tourists in the region

94

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

among al Chinese is also increasing in al the countries. This could mean that

the destination brand recognition is improving in PRC.

In next two tables are presented the data about index of share of Chinese

tourists in total international arrivals and length of staying.

Table 22: The trend of Chinese tourist’s arrivals – part 1

Base year

2016

Increase

Albania

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,07107% 0,10136% 142,6%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00299% 0,00318% 106,2%

BiH (2010) Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,21070% 1,70758% 810,4%

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00134% 0,00879% 654,9%

Croatia

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,16990% 1,51792% 893,4%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,02697% 0,13881% 514,7%

Kosovo

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,05817% 0,13141% 225,9%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00003% 0,00007% 209,1%

Macedonia Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,26901% 1,28603% 478,1%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00123% 0,00435% 354,5%

Montenegro Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,09193% 0,71559% 778,4%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00174% 0,00788% 452,1%

Serbia

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,43970% 1,43660% 326,7%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,00523% 0,01219% 233,3%

Slovenia

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,43898% 1,52356% 347,1%

(2010)

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,01429% 0,02945% 206,0%

Average

Share of Chinese among foreigners

0,19519% 1,19917% 614,4%

Share of Chinese among the Chinese

0,05383% 0,20471% 380,3%

Source: (Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of

Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska

Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za

statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017;

Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017)

However, even if this number may point to a growing trend of Chinese

outbound tourism, these data may be somewhat misleading. Looking more into

detail, the data also reveal that the time that Chinese tourists spend in

individual country is persistently shrinking over the last decade. In case of

95

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Slovenia (Table 23: The trend of Chinese tourists – part 2) it has fal en to 1,4

nights in 2015 (SURS, 2015), which is similar to Montenegro (1,36 nights in

2015). In Croatia, despite the relatively high number of tourists, the situation is

worse (1.17 in 2015). Not much better fair other courtiers. The situation is

better only in Serbia with 2.30 days.

Table 23: The trend of Chinese tourists – part 2

Base year

2016

Increase

Albania

Foreign tourist nights

2,50

1,80

0,72

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

1,70

1,58

0,93

BiH (2010)

Foreign tourist nights

2,21

2,11

0,95

Chinese tourists nights

2,63

1,25

0,48

Croatia

Foreign tourist nights

5,60

5,23

0,93

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

1,50

1,36

0,91

Kosovo

Foreign tourist nights

2,20

1,57

0,71

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

1,75

1,60

0,91

Macedonia

Foreign tourist nights

2,14

2,06

0,96

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

2,28

1,49

0,65

Montenegro

Foreign tourist nights

6,41

6,33

0,99

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

1,90

1,42

0,75

Serbia

Foreign tourist nights

2,13

2,14

1,00

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

3,30

2,34

0,71

Slovenia

Foreign tourist nights

2,67

2,41

0,90

(2010)

Chinese tourists nights

1,87

1,43

0,76

Average

Foreign tourist nights

4,54

4,03

0,89

Chinese tourists nights

1,82

1,43

0,79

Source: (Estimations by the authors based on: Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017;

Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical

Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku

Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija

Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017; Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017)

96

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Index of growth of Chinese arrivals in mostly observed countries excluding

Albania is presented by next figure (Figure 22: Index of growth of Chinese

outbound tourism in countries of ex Yugoslavia in period 2010-2016).

Figure 22: Index of growth of Chinese outbound tourism in countries of ex

Yugoslavia in period 2010-2016

Source: (Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of

Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska

Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za

statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017;

in:Raspor & Lacmanović, 2017)

Looking at the average growth rate (geometric growth rate/GGR) of arrivals

Chinese and foreign tourists in general for a period 2010-2016, it could be

noticed that there is higher GGR of Chinese tourists than foreign tourists in

97

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

general in Bosnia and Herzegovina (17.23 % vs. 12.25 %), Croatia (13.54 % vs.

5.88 %) and Montenegro (11.89 % vs. 7.26 %); and lower GGR of Chinese

tourists than foreign tourists in general in Macedonia (9.33 % vs. 11.88 %),

Serbia (6.14 % vs. 11.12 %), Kosovo (5,.50 % vs. 17.76 %) and Slovenia (5.42 %

vs. 8.09 %) (Raspor & Lacmanović, 2017).

The most share of Chinese tourist in total international arrivals in 2016 is

realized in Croatia (1.48 %), fol owing by Bosnia and Herzegovina (1.47 %),

Slovenia (1.31 %), Macedonia (1.28 %), Serbia (1.21 %), Montenegro (0.72 %),

Kosovo (0.12 %) and Albania (0.10 %).

In some of the observed countries, using the mentioned publications, it could

be stressed a few observations about the behavior of Chinese travelers.

Chinese tourists are most attracted by Slovenia and Croatia; mostly visit several

countries during one trip; looking for information about destination through

their friends, tourist agents, and brochures; impressed by unspoiled nature

(Slovenia and Montenegro), peacefulness of the destination (Slovenia) and

historical and culture heritage (Montenegro) which are key decision factors

including value per money, places of interest, price and leisure possibilities;

usual y travel during period from May to October; the most attractive

destination in Slovenia are: Ljubljana – the capital; the lake town of Bled and the

Postojna Cave and in Montenegro are: Podgorica – the capital; the Skadar Lake

national park and Montenegrin Coast; wanted to stay 4 days, express moderate

wil ingness to revisit Montenegro and Slovenia, and they would prefer to visit

these countries as part of a tourist package(Raspor et al., 2016a).

The main factors of satisfaction among Chinese tourists in Slovenia and

Montenegro are those that points on primary elements of destination (natural

resources and cultural and historical heritage). Due to short staying in

destination it rise up the question of adapting hotel offer and organizing the

98

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

animation during the stay through creation the offers for nightlife, sport and

recreation, as wel as enrichment of wel ness and spa offers (Bulatović et al.,

2016).

The Chinese travelers are using different structure in sources of information

when travel to Slovenia and Montenegro, without significant differences by age

and income groups when using mobile application in booking travel and

accommodation which mean it is wel accepted (Raspor et al., 2016b).

In order to use strength, avoid threats and take chance through opportunities,

destinations such as Montenegro should carefully examine Chinese tourist’s

characteristics, travel habits and their decisions which would be base for

custom tourism product (tour guides to speak basic Chinese language)

(Stranjančević et al., 2016).

There is very law share by tourist expenditure of Chinese tourists in GDP in

Slovenia and Montenegro but with high growth index in both countries. Chinese

tourist expenditure is an important part of export in China in both countries

and it is expected that China could become important partner in the

international trade, as an “invisible export”, as wel (Raspor et al., 2017).

In Montenegro in 2015 was realized the strongest economic impact of Chinese

tourism expenditure but in line to negative international trade balance (export

account 22 % of import) net effect of “invisible export” is not significant.

Slovenia had greater contribution of Chinese tourism expenditure in GDP than

Croatia, but with lower importance in international trade to China than in

Croatia. Economic impact of Chinese tourism expenditure was the lowest in

Serbia which is inconsistent with share of export in China in total export in

relation to other observed countries (Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro) or in other

99

Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

words in Serbia the greater importance is on export of goods and raw materials

than “invisible export” to China (Lacmanović & Raspor, 2016).

Al in al , the cumulative number of Chinese tourists in region was 245,000

Chinese tourists (Figure 23: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan region –

Arrivals from 2005 to 2016; Figure 24: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan

region – Overnights from 2005 to 2016). But since they visit at least 4 countries

in the region on average, these individuals were statistical y counted several

times. Based on this we can estimate that the region was visited by no more

than 65,000 tourists, a much more modest number. In next two figures are

presented arrivals and overnights of Chinese tourists in selected countries of

Balkan region in period 2005-2016.

100 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 23: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan region – Arrivals from 2005

to 2016

Source: (Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of

Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska

Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za

statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017;

Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017)

101 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 24: Chinese in selected countries of Balkan region – Overnights from

2005 to 2016

Source:Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of

Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017; Republika Hrvatska

Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za

statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku, 2017;

Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017

102 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

7 FORECAST

The presented data highlights the very strong growth of Chinese outbound

tourism, which is supposed to achieve continuous rise in the near future (Figure

25: The Future of Chinese Travel). Although the share of Chinese outbound

travels to Europe is stil low in comparison to other destinations, some

predictions show high increase in future years (The Goldman Sachs Group,

2015).

It is expected in next five years that 400 mil ion people wil enter the middle

class global y and many of them are originate from Asia Pacific region (Oxford

Economics, 2015). In realistic scenario that Chinese household moved forward

to middle and upper class it could push the global demand for long-haul travel

which include more luxurious accommodation and shopping (Ibid).

Figure 25: The Future of Chinese Travel

Source: The Future of Chinese Travel (2015) by IHG and Oxford Economics(Oxford Economics,

2015)

103 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

According to IHG’s recent report, The Future of Chinese Travel, cities are the

primary destinations for Chinese travelers: 85% choose major cities as their

destination of choice(World Economic Forum, 2015).

Using the data concerning Chinese international departures there are different

methodologies. It is stated data about Border crossings(Macmil an Publishers

Limited, 2018)28, which is used by Chinese National Tourism Administration

(CNTA) (China National Tourism Administration, 2016), also is used by another

sources (Wolfgang Georg Arlt & Deng-Westphal, 2017). China has

102(Wikipedia, 2013) major border crossings, and there are direct connections

(by airplane, train, boat) to Hong Kong at 25 border crossings, which on daily

base are passed by 250,000 travelers(Hong Kong Immigration Department,

2015). UNWTO states that 18 mil ion Chinese traveled from China to Hong Kong

in 2015 (UNWTO, 2017a).

Besides, there are data by UNWTO and World Bank which are dealing with

international arrivals by countries. There is no single methodology in data

gathering. Some countries 29 record Chinese tourists in one category, other

countries record Chinese tourists in few categories, “Mainland China”, “Hong

Kong-China”, “Macao-China” and “Taiwan”. Knowing the methodology of

gathering data in statistical offices of the observed countries, al of the data are

presented in one single category “China”(Investopedia, 2018)30.

In general, CNTA data are more relevant for countries which bordering China.

UNWTO and World Bank data al ow an overlook of arrival in al other countries,

28 Place on the border between two countries where people can cross, have their passports

checked, and go through customs.

29 Beside Croatia which records Chinese tourists in separate categories, in other selected

countries of Balkan region and most of the countries in world Chinese tourists are recorded as

one category “China” which include “Mainland China”; Hong Kong, SAR; Macao, SAR and Taiwan.

In further discussion, it would be used that categorization.

30 Recording as Special Adminstrative Region (SAR)

104 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

which are not interesting in daily migration flow such as the case in China-

Hong Kong, for example.

Based on the data presented and information gathered we could forecast the

future trend of Chinese tourists’ arrivals. Fol owing UNWTO, the predictions

about the total number of Chinese outbound tourists go as high as 450 mil ion

Chinese traveling in 2030 (UNWTO, 2017a. Our prediction (Figure 26: Actual

trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in world in period 1995–2027)

is 350 mil ion til 2027 and 995,000 Chinese tourists in the Western Balkan

(Figure 28). However, we believe that these numbers may be too ambitious and

that the growth wil slow down after 2020 (Figure 27). Thus, we estimate that

the number of Chinese tourists in the region wil not exceed 600,000 tourists in

2027.

The data stated in the figure below refer to actual data and forecast the growth

trend of Chinese tourists in world from 1995 to 2027. Also in this figure (Figure

26: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in world in period

1995–2027) it is presented growth trend using the CNTA, UNWTO and World

Bank data.

105 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 26: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in world in

period 1995–2027

Source: World Bank, 2017; UNWTO, 2017a; China National Tourism Administration, 2016; Arlt &

Deng-Westphal, 2017;Own processing

With 90 % of probability, it could be expected that til 2027, 188 mil ion of

Chinese tourists would travel. Border crossings would be greater. It is expected

that from Mainland China to Hong Kong-China, Macao-China and Taiwan

including their daily migration flow it would be 350 Border crossing. Average

growth rate (GGR) in period 2017-2027 would be 5.9 % in comparison to total

106 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

world tourism growth rate at 2.36 % (which had been calculated and presented

(Figure 6: Actual trend and forecast of international tourist arrivals in period

1997 - 2050).

Concerning these numbers, it could be seen the great potential in Chinese

outbound market although a few destinations have realized the benefits from it

(UNWTO, 2018). The spending power, the outbound travel demand and

consumption preferences vary from region to region which means that the

reaching this outbound market presents a great chal enges (Ibid).

For the needs of this research, we prepared forecasts of world expenditure

Chinese tourists (Figure 27: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese tourism

expenditure in world in period 1995–2027). We took into account two bases:

CNTA in World Bank.

107 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 27: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese tourism expenditure in world in

period 1995–2027

Source: Estimations by the authors based on: World Bank, 2017; UNWTO, 2017a;

It could be assumed, with 90 % of probability, that in 2027 Chinese tourism

expenditure wil be 746 bil ion USD. Average growth rate (GGR) in period 2017-

2027 would be more than 20 % (which had been calculated and presented in

figure 26).

108 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Taking into account the trend of arrivals of Chinese tourists in selected

countries of Balkan region in observed period it is formed the forecast of future

arrivals til 2027. This is presented by figure (Figure 28: Actual trend and

forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in selected countries of Balkan region in

period 2005–2027).

Figure 28: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese outbound arrivals in selected

countries of Balkan region in period 2005–2027

Estimations by the authors based on: Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of

Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017;

Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i

Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički

zavod za statistiku, 2017; Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017

109 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

By the presented data concerning Chinese arrivals in selected countries of

Balkan region in observed period, we can calculate that the average growth rate

of arrivals in the years 2017-2027 wil be 10.5 %.

The last forecast is forecast for Chinese tourism expenditure in selected

countries of Balkan region in period 2005–2027. In the forecasts, we rely on the

perceived consumption of Chinese tourists in Slovenia, which is 171 EURO per

day (Raspor, 2018). From this consumption, we calculated the average

consumption by the countries involved. This varies from country to country. It

is the highest in Slovenia and the lowest in Macedonia. From these findings we

predicted future consumption (Figure 29: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese

tourism expenditure in selected countries of Balkan region in period 2005–

2027).

Consumption of Chinese people living in Italy and coming to Slovenian casinos

should be added to this consumption. In 2016 its amount was to 35 million

Euros. In 2017 there was already over 40 mil ion Euros.

110 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Figure 29: Actual trend and forecast of Chinese tourism expenditure in selected

countries of Balkan region in period 2005–2027

Estimations by the authors based on: Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS, 2017; Republic of

Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics, 2017; Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office, 2017;

Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku, 2017; Agencija za statistiku Bosne i

Hercegovine, 2017; Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat, 2017; Republika Srbija Republički

zavod za statistiku, 2017; Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics, 2017

Taking into account al the simulated preliminary consumption data, it can be

estimated that the average growth rate of consumption in the years 2017-2027

wil be more than 20 %.

111 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

112 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

8 CONCLUSION

The main question which could be asked is: What are the main obstacles which

could prevent the main effects of the supposed growth of Chinese outbound

tourism in selected countries of Balkan region and what are possible directions

of future dealing with?

First of al , there is limited cooperation among al selected countries of Balkan

region (Slovenia and Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro) in dealing with Chinese

tourists. It could be discussed the opportunities in networking the main tourism

subjects in most of these countries in order to use synergy effects in joint

promotional and sales activities. Joint approach vs. individual could be a

solution to prevent lower effects of the expected growth of Chinese tourists.

Secondly, there is stil poor knowledge about Chinese outbound tourism

market. In the context of observed actual and future importance of Chinese

market segment in total international tourism flow, there is need to take active

measures in marketing research and planning concerning the main Chinese

tourism market figures and trends.

Thirdly, there is low mutual knowing and understanding about strength and

weakness concerning joint tourism products which could be offered at the

Chinese outbound tourism market. Through international initiatives and

projects funded by European Commission (IPA or structured funds, for

example) there is very good possibilities to upgrade this knowledge gap and to

create the new joint tourism product for Chinese tourism market.

In general, there are great possibilities for al observed countries to improve

marketing approach at the Chinese outbound tourism market.

113 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

114 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY AND FUTURE RESEARCHE

DIRECTIONS

The study has certain acknowledgeable limitations and offers some directions

for future research.

Lack of some data point on limiting the scope of our analysis and prevent

detailed finding to be presented. Al data were col ected from secondary

sources with al limitations in that sense.

There were no prior research studies on this topic which sign on some findings

which couldn't be compared with similar one and to find out whether there is

some inconsistency or not.

Some sources which are used had the different scope of data such as a number

of Chinese departures and it was the limitation in sense to analysis the one type

of data and to present clear research results.

This study, as applicative research, define some of the opportunities for future

research in terms of the new aspect concerning the subject.

It would be interesting to find out some economic impact of Chinese outbound

tourism on observed countries’ economies in a few categories such as gross

domestic product, investment, employment and foreign trade.

Also, it would be important to rise up some general questions concerning the

Chinese outbound tourism and the observed countries such as immigration

policy and visa regime, intercultural differences and tourism impacts, security

and safety concerning terrorist attacks, sustainability and tourism overcapacity,

end etc.

115 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

116 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

REFERENCES

Agencija za statistiku Bosne i Hercegovine. (2017). Statistika turizma,

Kumulativni podaci, januar-decembar 2016. Retrieved August 15, 2017,

from

http://www.bhas.ba/index.php?option=com_publikacija&view=publikacija_

pregled&ids=3&id=16&n=Turizam

Arlt, W. G. (2016). China Information Day Conference China Outbound Tourism

2016.

Arlt, W. G., & Deng-Westphal, M. (2017). 2018 EU-China Tourism Year Getting

Ready For China 2018. Hamburg, Germany. Retrieved from http://china-

outbound.com/wbt/

Bofulin, M., Raspor, A., Stranjančević, A., Bulatović, I., & Lacmanović, D. (2016).

Smal Destinations In Large Tourism Market: The analysis of Western Balkan

countries and the Chinese outbound tourism. In The VI I International

Scientific Conference “The role and effectiveness of investments in the

integration process of the Balkan societies after Stabilisation Association

Agreement (pp. 130–143). Ulcinj: Institut for scientific research and

development.

Bulatović, I., Stranjančević, A., Lacmanović, D., & Raspor, A. (2016). The factors

of satisfaction among Chinese tourists in Montenegro and Slovenia.

Research in Social Change (RSC), 8(2), 94–114.

Chang, F. B., & Rucker-Chang. (2011). Chinese migrants in Russia, Central Asia

and Eastern Europe. Routledge.

China National Tourism Administration. (2016). Travel China Guide: China

Outbound Tourism in 2015. Bejing. Retrieved from

http://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2015statistics

COTRI. (2016). Report of the Balkan Regional Workshop on Route and Product

Development. Retrieved from

http://itthon.hu/documents/14462699/25786342/Balkan+workshop+rep

ort+FINAL.pdf/10975161-8e25-4b8b-9866-fba3b5180b5c

ETC Bulletin. (2018). World Bridge Tourism: the first step towards 2018 EU-

China Tourism Year.

Euromonitor International. (2018a). Consumer spending by Income Bands.

117 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Retrieved April 6, 2018, from

http://www.portal.euromonitor.com/portal/dashboard/index

Euromonitor International. (2018b). Shifting market frontiers: Asian Century.

Retrieved April 8, 2018, from

http://www.portal.euromonitor.com/portal/dashboard/index

European Travel Commision. (2017). European Tourism - Trends & Prospects

Quarterly Report Q4/2016.

Expedia MediaSolutions. (2017). Multi-national Travel Trends Connecting the

Digital Dots: The Motivations and Mindset of Online Travelers. Retrieved

from www.advertising.expedia.com

Goh, L. (2017). The Chinese travel ers that you never knew. Retrieved January

14, 2018, from https://www.sabre.com/locations/apac/the-chinese-

travel ers-that-you-never-knew/

Gosar, A. (1989). Structural impact of international tourism in Yugoslavia. Geo

Jurnal, 19(3), 277–283.

Hong Kong Immigration Department. (2015). Control Branch. Retrieved

February 18, 2018, from

http://www.immd.gov.hk/publications/a_report_2015/en/ch2.html

Hotels.com. (2016). Chinese International Travel Monitor 2016.

Hristov, B. (2014). Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade.

Investopedia. (2018). Macau SAR, China. Retrieved February 18, 2018, from

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hongkongstockexchange.asp

Kobašić, A. (1987). Turizam u Jugoslaviji. Zagreb: Informator.

Kopf, D. (n.d.). Which Countries Are the Most/Least Overrun by Tourists?

Retrieved June 24, 2017, from https://priceonomics.com/which-countries-

are-the-mostleast-overrun-by/

Lacmanović, D., & Raspor, A. (2016). Economic impact of Chinese outbound

tourism in Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro. In HOTEL PLAN 2016,

The Sixth International Biennial Congres »Hospitality and tourism –

interdisciplinary approach« (pp. 100–111). Belgrade, Serbia: The Col ege of

Hotel Management.

Lehr, D. (2017). Five Facts You Didn’t Know About Chinese Tourists. Retrieved

July 6, 2017, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/five-facts-you-

didnt-know-about-chinese-tourists_us_5911f0f8e4b0e070cad7091b

118 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Levasseur, M. (2011). Global ranking of destinations and source markets.

Retrieved August 10, 2017, from

http://tourismintel igence.ca/2011/07/26/global-ranking-of-

destinations-and-source-markets/

Macmil an Publishers Limited. (2018). border crossing. Retrieved February 18,

2018, from

https://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/border-crossing

Oxford Economics. (2015). The Future of Chinese Travel, The Global Chinese

Travel Market. Oxford, England. http://doi.org/10.1016/0016-

3287(89)90084-0

Pavlićević, D. (2015). China’s new Silk Road takes initiative in Central and

Eastern Europe. China Brief, 15(1), 9–13.

Raspor, A. (2018). Survey about Chinese tourists in Slovenia 2017. Dolga

Poljana, Slovenia.

Raspor, A., & Lacmanović, D. (2017). Vpliv kitajskega izhodnega turzma na

države nekdanje Jugoslavije, The impact of the Chinese outbound tourism

on the states of the former Yugoslavia. In R. Ovin (Ed.), Dajmo prostor

novemu znanju: monografija Doba fakultete (Spoznanja iz ekonomskih ter

uporabnih poslovnih in družbenih študij (pp. 107–119). Maribor, Slovenia:

Doba Fakulteta za uporabne poslovne in družbene študije.

Raspor, A., Lacmanović, D., Stranjančević, A., & Bulatović, I. (2016a). Chinese

tourists in Slovenia and Montenegro: Preferences, characteristics and trip

motivation (1st ed.). London: Vega Press LTD.

Raspor, A., Lacmanović, D., Stranjančević, A., & Bulatović, I. (2016b). Using Web

applications for travel planning: Case study of Chinese tourists in Slovenia

and Montenegro. Research in Social Change (RSC), 8(2), 4–29.

Raspor, A., Stranjančević, A., Bulatović, I., & Lacmanović, D. (2017). Tourism

invisible part of exports: the analysis of Slovenia and Montenegro on the

Chinese outbound tourism. In A. Maček (Ed.), International Trade-On the

Brink of Change (pp. 95–121). Rijeka: InTech. Retrieved from

http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/66628

Republic of Albania Instat The Institute of Statistics. (2017). Arrivals of foreign

citizens according to regions, (2012-2016). Retrieved January 18, 2018,

from http://www.instat.gov.al/en/themes/industry-trade-and-

119 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

services/tourism/#tab2

Republic of Kosovo Kosovo Agency of Statistics. (2017). Series 3 : Economic

Statistics Hotel Statistics Q4 2016. Retrieved August 15, 2017, from

http://ask.rks-gov.net/media/3145/hotel-statistics-q4-2016.pdf

Republic of Macedonia State Statistical Office. (2017). Statistical Yearbook of the

Republic of Macedonia, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2017, from

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrikaziPublikacija_1_en.aspx?rbr=674

Republika Hrvatska Državni zavod za statistiku. (2017). Dolasci i noćenja turista

u 2016. Retrieved August 15, 2017, from https://www.dzs.hr/

Republika Slovenija Statistični Urad RS. (2017). Prihodi in prenočitve turistov po

vrstah občin, po vrstah nastanitvenih objektov in po državah, Slovenija,

letno, 2016. Retrieved August 15, 2017, from

http://pxweb.stat.si/pxweb/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=2164505S&ti=&path=..

/Database/Ekonomsko/21_gostinstvo_turizem/02_21645_nastanitev_letno

/&lang=2

Republika Srbija Republički zavod za statistiku. (2017). Turistički promet u

Republici Srbiji, decembar 2016. Retrieved August 15, 2017, from

http://pod2.stat.gov.rs/ObjavljenePublikacije/G2017/pdf/G20171018.pdf

Resonance Consultancy Ltd. (2016). The Future of Chinese International Travel

Resonance Report.

Slovenian Tourist Board. (2017). TOURISM IN NUMBERS 2016 SLOVENIA.

Ljubljana, Slovenia. Retrieved from www.slovenia.info

Social Media influences Chinese travel ers. (2015). Retrieved November 1, 2016,

from http://chinesetouristagency.com/social-media-influences-chinese-

travel ers/

Statista The Statistics portal. (2018). China: growth rate of real gross domestic

product (GDP) from 2010 to 2021. Retrieved January 6, 2018, from

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-

gdp-growth-rate-in-china/

Stranjančević, A., Bulatović, I., Lacmanović, D., & Raspor, A. (2016). Tourist

destination strenghts and opportunitites: Is Montenegro ready for Chinese

tourists? Economics, 4(1), 151–164. http://doi.org/1515/eoik-2015-0027

The Goldman Sachs Group. (2015). The Asian Consumer, The Chinese Tourist

Boom. New York.

120 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

The Momentum Group TMG Worldwide. (2016). Understanding the Global

Chinese Traveler.

The World Bank. (2017a). Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. Retrieved

August 17, 2017, from

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=health-

nutrition-and-population-statistics#

The World Bank. (2017b). International tourism, number of arrivals. Retrieved

August 12, 2017, from

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-

development-indicators&preview=on#

The World Bank. (2017c). Land Area (sq.km). Retrieved August 17, 2017, from

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-

development-indicators#

Toh, V. (2017). Sabre unveils evolving behaviours and motivations of today’s

Chinese travel ers. Retrieved January 15, 2018, from

https://www.sabre.com/locations/apac/releases/sabre-unveils-evolving-

behaviours-and-motivations-of-todays-chinese-travel ers/

TuTech Innovation GmbH/Hamburg University of Technology. (2017). Workshop

in Montenegro 11 th – 12 th April 2017 Podgorica / Montenegro. Hamburg,

Germany.

Understanding Yugoslavia: Why did it break up in the 1990s? (n.d.).

United Nations World Economic Situation Prospects. (2017). World Economic

Situation Prospects 2017. Retrieved from

http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/wesp

2014.pdf

UNWTO. (2016). UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2016 Edition. Madrid, Spain.

http://doi.org/10.18111/9789284418145

UNWTO. (2017a). Data on Outbound Tourism (calculated on basis of arrivals in

destination countries) dataset [Electronic]. Retrieved January 8, 2018, from

https://www.e-

unwto.org/doi/suppl/10.5555/unwtotfb0250250119952016201709

UNWTO. (2017b). UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2017 Edition. Madrid, Spain.

Retrieved from http://www.e-

unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284419029

121 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

UNWTO. (2017c). UNWTO world tourism barometar Decembar 2017 (Vol. 15).

Madrid, Spain. Retrieved from https://www.e-

unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/wtobarometereng.2017.15.6.1

UNWTO. (2017d). UNWTO world tourism barometer march 2017 (Vol. 15).

Madrid, Spain. Retrieved from http://www.e-

unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/wtobarometereng.2017.15.2.1

UNWTO. (2018). UNWTO Workshop on Chinese Outbound Tourism Market.

Retrieved February 18, 2018, from http://www2.unwto.org/event/unwto-

workshop-chinese-outbound-tourism-market

UNWTO Press Release. (2017). Chinese tourists spent 12% more in travel ing

abroad in 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2017, from

http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2017-04-12/chinese-tourists-

spent-12-more-travel ing-abroad-2016

Wikipedia. (2013). Border crossings of China. Retrieved February 18, 2018,

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Border_crossings_of_China

Wikipedia. (2017a). Tourism in Turkey. Retrieved August 16, 2017, from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Turkey

Wikipedia. (2017b). Visa requirements for Chinese citizens. Retrieved May 2,

2017, from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_Chinese_citizens

Wikipedia. (2017c). Visa requirements for Taiwanese citizens. Retrieved May 2,

2017, from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_Taiwanese_citizens

World Atlas. (2017). 10 Most Visited Countries In The World. Retrieved May 1,

2017, from http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/10-most-visited-

countries-in-the-world.html

World Development Indicators | DataBank. (2017).

World Economic Forum. (2015). The future of Chinese travel. Retrieved May 6,

2017, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/09/the-future-of-

chinese-travel/

World Economic Forum. (2016). These are the world’s most visited cities in

2016. Retrieved May 1, 2017, from

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/these-are-the-worlds-most-

visited-cities-in-2016

122 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

WTTC. (2017). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017 World. Retrieved from

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-

research/regions-2017/world2017.pdf

Zavod za statistiku Crne Gore Monstat. (2017). Dolasci i noćenja turista 2016.

Retrieved August 15, 2017, from

http://www.monstat.org/cg/page.php?id=1457&pageid=44

123 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

124 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

AUTHORS

Andrej Raspor (PhD),Assistant Professor,

School of advanced social studies, Gregorčičeva 19, SI-

5000 Nova Gorica, Slovenija

+386 (0)5 333 00 80

Tel: +386 51 313221

email: andrej.raspor@ceatm.org

Andrej Raspor completed Col ege of Engineering; after graduating in work

organization from the Faculty of Work Organization in Kranj, University of

Maribor, he continued his post-graduate studies at the Faculty of Social

Sciences, University of Ljubljana, and received his PhD in social sciences in

2010. His doctoral thesis was entitled: Impact of Tipping on Workers'

Motivation: Comparison Between the Hospitality and the Gaming Industry.

He has lectured and consulted on the issues related to organization and human

resources, time and cost management, service quality and career paths. Out of

total 30 years of employment he has spent over 10 years working in various top

positions, such as Head of General Administration, Human Resources

Development Manager, Director of Strategic Projects, Head of the Expense

Supervision Commission and manager of his own company. His mission is to

link and exchange good practices between the economic and the academic

sphere. He is the owner of the company CEATM ltd. whose vision is to link the

countries of the Western Balkans and China in tourism, investment and

business consultancy. His key research interests include work relations and

processes, with the emphasis on work process optimization, both from the

point of view of costs and time organization, as wel as tourism, with the aim to

link the countries of the Western Balkans and China. He has attended numerous

international conferences, and has published the outcomes of his research work

in several scientific peer-reviewed publications.

125 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Darko Lacmanović (PhD), Full Professor,

University Mediterranean, Faculty for tourism Montenegro

Tourism School, Josipa Broza Tita bb, 81000 Podgorica,

Montenegro

Tel: +38269377228

Email: darko.lacmanovic@unimediteran.net

Darko Lacmanović is Full Professor at the University Mediterranean, Faculty for

tourism Montenegro Tourism School, Podgorica, Montenegro.

He graduated in the field of economics from Split University, the Faculty of

tourism and foreign trade in Dubrovnik, Croatia, in 1987 and received his

Masters from Belgrade University’s Faculty of Economics, in February 1996. He

got his PhD in the field of economics at the Megatrend University of Applied

Science, Faculty of business studies, Belgrade, Serbia, in February 2005 with the

doctoral thesis ‘Sales Management in Hospitality industry’.

He began his academic career at the University of Split, Faculty of tourism and

foreign trade in Dubrovnik, Croatia, as teaching assistant in 1989.

His work experience includes various positions of sales manager and hotel

manager in hospitality industry in Montenegro for over 13 years.

He has been lecturer at the University Mediterranean, Faculty for tourism MTS -

Montenegro Tourism School and Faculty of Business Studies MBS - Montenegro

Business School on the undergraduate, postgraduate, master and doctoral

programmes since 2005.

He is the author of several books and journal articles with research interests in

tourism marketing and sales management in hospitality industry.

126 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović



CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

Maria Popović (PhD), Assistant professor,

University of Adriatic - Faculty for Business and Tourism

Budva, Montenegro.

Tel: +38269032600

Email: maria.popovic@fbt-budva.me

Maria Popović was graduated from the Faculty of Philosophy in Niksic and got

her master degree in 2011 and received her PhD at the Faculty of Culture and

Media at the Megatrend University in Belgrade in 2013.

She began her academic career at the Mediterranean University, where she

worked as a teaching assistant at the Faculty for Tourism - MTS Montenegro

Tourism School and the Faculty of Foreign Languages in Podgorica. From the

founding of the Faculty of Business and Tourism she works as a teaching

assistant, and then as an assistant professor on the undergraduate,

postgraduate and master programmes since 2013. She also teaches at the

Faculty of Mediterranean Studies in Tivat and the Faculty of Maritime Faculty in

Bar. She is the author of several journal articles in the field of cultural tourism

and sociological aspects of tourism.

127 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović

CHINESE TOURISTS IN WESTERN BALKAN: FACTS AND FORECAST

128 Andrej Raspor, Darko Lacmanović, Maria Popović





PRICE: 15,00 EUR